Avsnitt
-
In Part Two with Michael Oliver and Vince Lanci we discuss the growing political and economic uncertainties revolving around the upcoming 2024 election.
Michael highlights the potential chaos and unrest during the election. He suggests that if the stock market broke before the election, the Democratic Party might consider replacing Biden due to their emphasis on market performance. Tom mentions a poll indicating deep-rooted political divisions, with each party believing a win by the opposite would cause lasting harm to the country. This instability, Michael believes, is not being factored into markets and could lead to major shifts for global investors.
The duo expressed concerns about the upcoming election's impact on markets and society, emphasizing that elections usually bring uncertainty but, due to deep-rooted political divisions in the US, there is a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty. This could result in increased stock market volatility and even a contested election outcome. They mentioned historical examples like the 2008 election, secession attempts, and the role of gold during such times.
They also touch upon potential implications for gold markets if the U.S. election was contested. They emphasize buying dips instead of selling rallies for gold and silver as alternatives to a volatile stock market. They see gold as a competitive alternative when the stock market experiences volatility.
Furthermore, the conversation explored potential crises or geopolitical events that could lead to the suspension of the upcoming election, including manufactured ones. The speakers also touched upon the role of gold as a metric of economic stability and its potential impact on the election. Additionally, they reflected on the changing political landscape, the influence of various parties and foreign conflicts on the election outcome, and the potential consequences for free speech, civil unrest, inflation, monetary policy, and individual freedoms.
Time Stamp References:00:00 - Introduction00:51 - Fed & Panic Mode08:40 - 2024 Election Chaos?13:26 - Argentina & Milei19:33 - Seceding Successfully?24:41 - Fed Going Away?26:04 - Censorship & Free Speech29:10 - Suspension of Elections?31:18 - Geopolitical Black Swans37:03 - The Uni-Party & RFK39:56 - Metals & Signposts40:33 - Volatility & Buy The Dips42:17 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The upcoming 2024 U.S. election is causing significant political and economic uncertainty which the markets have not priced in.
Deep-rooted political divisions indicate a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty, increasing stock market volatility and potential for a market correction
Gold could serve as an alternative investment during such volatile stock markets and potential black swan like events.
Vince Lanci - Guest LinksSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS's parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff.... -
In this Palisades podcast episode, Tom welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis and Vince Lanci, publisher of the Goldfix Substack. The discussion covers various markets - metals, equity indexes, commodities - and in part two, the upcoming election.
Michael Oliver initiates the conversation by analyzing the NASDAQ's remarkable growth since the 2009 Bear Low and its significance as a leading index due to its substantial percentage gain. He attributes this influx of funds to the M2 chart or Fed funds rate chart, directing investment into the stock market at that time. Michael then pivots towards the current market situation, sharing his view on momentum analysis and the election's potential impact, emphasizing the importance of examining trends beyond just price. He points to a major sell signal in January 2022, causing a steep decline followed by recovery.
Vince Lanci contributes by addressing the narrowing breadth in the stock market. He stresses that leadership changes are vital for overall market health and believes there's currently no breadth, limiting options if AI leadership falters. Vince explains how the stock indexes have shrunk from a broader group to key players.
The discussion also touches on copper and natural gas commodities before focusing on precious metals. Michael highlights the deceptive nature of the acceleration phase in a bull market and the significance of understanding trends and structures rather than relying solely on popular indicators like RSI or MACD.
They further delve into investment strategies based on silver market analysis and historical trends, sharing personal experiences and anticipating precious metals market movements due to geopolitical tensions and central banks' actions. Vince also brings a geopolitical perspective, focusing on central banks and sovereign wealth funds buying silver as an international trade collateral store of value.
They explore the potential for a new Bretton Woods and gold's ability to anticipate economic trends. Vince expects significant precious metals market movements due to the anticipated end of fiat currency and gold's role in predicting economic shifts, with concern about commercial real estate and stock markets potentially being affected by central banks' involvement.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - Nasdaq & Momentum4:58 - Nvidia & Stock Markets?10:38 - Copper Importance12:53 - Natural Gas Chart18:44 - Past Silver Bull Mkts.24:30 - Momentum & Timeframes26:38 - Maintaining Perspective34:09 - Silver Spread Vs. Gold37:40 - C.B. Gold Buying & BRICS43:43 - Gold & The End of Fiat
Talking Points From This Episode
Michael Oliver discusses the NASDAQ's growth, attributing it to funds shift post-financial crisis, emphasizing importance of understanding market trends beyond just price.
Vince Lanci highlights narrowing stock market breadth and stresses leadership changes are crucial for overall health and potential risks if it falters.
They explore investment strategies in precious metals, discussing historical trends, geopolitical tensions, and central banks' role.
Vince Lanci - Guest LinksSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfoli... -
Saknas det avsnitt?
-
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Francis Hunt, also known as the Market Sniper, for a discussion on the importance of shared experiences, living deliberately beyond the financial world, and the upcoming gold and silver discussion focusing on preserving assets during monetary transition. They emphasize the significance of understanding reality, accepting limitations, and building bonds for amplified experiences. Francis discusses the current economic situation involving debt contraction and the seesaw analogy representing nation states' debt levels and currencies. Japan's excessive debt is predicted to cause a currency collapse, leading to significant losses for various assets, including the 30-year treasury.
Francis discusses the reasons for owning physical gold, silver, and land as means to escape both systems and maintain control over possessions. He also discuss the importance of investing in industrial metals like copper as part of an inflation hedge during currency devaluation and suggest investing in commodities while shorting debt and fiat currencies. Francis predicts that gold will reach 2897, and silver may surpass it, in a parabolic phase of financial instability. They also analyze the performance of precious metals like Platinum, which has underperformed since 2009 but could experience overperformance based on historical trends and cross-valuation.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction9:55 - Analyze & Take Action13:32 - Resiliance & Emotions17:07 - Debt/Fiat Contraction19:56 - US 30Y Treasury Chart25:25 - Own Nothing and Be?29:23 - System Breaking & Gold32:30 - Fed & Who Prices Debt34:00 - Bond Rates & Control36:05 - Gold/Dollar Chart43:44 - 30Y Debt Reversion46:37 - Shrinking Dollar Value48:00 - Silver Levels & Support53:30 - Gold/Silver Ratio59:20 - Copper Chart1:01:42 - Coffee Chart1:03:48 - Gaps Down in Bull Runs1:06:39 - UPS Parcel Chart1:09:48 - Case For Platinum1:19:22 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Amidst economic instability, owning physical gold, silver, and land provides control over possessions and escapes debt-based systems.
Platinum has underperformed since 2009 but could experience overperformance due to historical trends and cross-valuation.
Invest in commodities like gold, silver, and platinum while shorting debt and fiat currencies during stagflation.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperTwitter: https://twitter.com/thecryptosniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. -
In this episode of Palisades, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back metals analyst David Jensen to discuss the volatile gold and silver markets, with a focus on the London market's reliance on promissory notes for trading and its potential physical supply issues leading to risks of default. They also touch upon the large trading volumes in London, deficits in the silver market, increasing demand from China, and concerns over retail investors influencing silver prices due to ETF manipulation and rehypothecation.
David shares his perspective on factors affecting the silver market during the 2020-2021 silver squeeze, including inventory disappearance in China, Shanghai exchange's influence, potential catalysts like central banks buying gold or conflicts, and the City of London's involvement in a longstanding global gold and silver fraud.
The conversation further explores the impact of various factors on gold and silver markets, including concerns about transparency regarding lease rates, central bank sourcing of metal, and potential consequences for major banks if they cannot cover contract losses. Overall, Jensen emphasizes the importance of understanding the significance of physical supply issues in the metals market and staying informed to avoid ignoring important matters.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Re-hypothecation & London7:17 - Bullion Banks & Physical13:20 - Paper Ponzi?15:08 - ETF Drawdowns & Supply17:23 - Jeff Currie Comments19:00 - Bullion & China Influence23:17 - News Driven Catalysts26:30 - Money Supply & Bank Buying29:15 - Demand Picture & Drawdowns30:35 - C.B. Metal Sourcing?32:22 - Debt & The Silver Lynchpin39:12 - Media & Reaching People41:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
David discusses volatile gold and silver prices due to physical supply issues in the London market.
Jensen warns of potential risk of default from reliance on promissory notes in London gold and silver trading.
He highlights significant deficits and dwindling inventories in the silver market, which will eventually cause a crisis.
Guest Links:Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensenReddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE
David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.
Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private mining company and provides strategic, operational, risk assessment, and precious metals consulting services through his consultancy, Jensen Strategic. -
In this Palisades interview, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back hosts global forecaster David Murin to delve into the differences between lateral and linear thinking in the context of current world conflicts. Murin posits that empires cycle through phases of thinking, with laterals leading initially and linears taking control as empires mature. He attributes the current global climate to an unprecedented level of linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing over the past two decades, which has left societies inflexible to dynamic threats.
Murin further discusses geopolitical implications, particularly regarding the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea and its significance for American maritime hegemony. He raises concerns about China's involvement and advanced military capabilities, emphasizing the importance of maintaining control over critical sea lanes for wealth and resource extraction.
Murin believes historical cycles of war could have been avoided with greater awareness and full-spectrum deterrence, aligning with the 112-year contractive cycle that has led to hegemonic conflicts throughout history.
David also shares his views on China's strategic intentions and resource acquisitions, arguing that China is not primarily concerned with wartime resource gathering but rather denying resources to the West. He points to Argentina as an example where Chinese interests were rejected, giving the West a foothold in the region. Murin suggests Western engagement and political activism are necessary for regime change in countries with autocratic regimes.
He uses numerous price-based systems to understand various markets and sectors, predicting a decline in bond prices and increased inflation for commodities due to excess demand from fiat money. David sees the current situation as a commodity supercycle that affects the entire commodities complex and causes inflation for all physical resources. War contributes to inflation during these cycles. Murin warns of impending wars, emphasizing the importance of adapting and strong leadership in response to threats.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - Types of Thinking6:20 - Shipping & Shrinking Empire12:40 - Inevitable Conflict?16:07 - China Growth & Cycles20:37 - The Art of War24:12 - BRICS & China26:33 - Fentanyl Problem28:10 - Results of Energy Tariffs31:33 - Inflation & Central Banks36:48 - Models & Mkt. Behavior38:32 - Bond Markets & Gold42:40 - War & Inflation43:53 - Important Developments46:00 - War is Upon Us49:01 - U.S. Navy & Defense52:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Empires cycle through lateral and linear thinking phases, with current global climate characterized by unprecedented linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing.
Geopolitical implications include challenges to American maritime hegemony in the Red Sea and China's potential denial of resources to the West.
Historical cycles indicate ongoing hegemonic conflicts and the importance of full-spectrum deterrence, with impending wars requiring quick adaptation and strong leadership.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t=636s
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. -
Tom welcomes back Mike Singleton, Senior Analyst and Founder at Invictus Research to the show. Mike explains his views on the business cycle, current economic trends, and their impact on asset classes like stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Mike explains that Invictus defines the business cycle as having three sub-cycles: real growth, inflation, and monetary policy. They believe these cycles drive price action across various assets. The US economy is currently reflating, indicating faster real growth and inflation. Despite inflationary pressures, federal deficits are expected to fuel manufacturing growth due to initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act.Mike argues that investors can benefit from an inflationary cycle as it leads to potential growth in earnings. However, consumers may face challenges with rising prices, affecting their quality of life and ability to deploy capital into markets. Mike believes that for a clearer understanding of inflation, one should look at commodity prices rather than Consumer Price Index (CPI).Mike also discusses the significance of copper miners' performance as an indicator of real economic acceleration. He suggests considering ownership of productive assets and taking on more cyclical risk when copper miners outperform copper. Oil, as an energy input, follows this trend, with demand increasing during economic expansion. Despite a recent downturn, it is viewed as a buying opportunity.The US dollar's relationship with economic data, interest rates, and the Fed is also discussed. While the U.S. economy is outperforming other developed markets, the dollar could strengthen based on interest rate parity. However, its weakening against emerging market currencies due to their improved economic conditions is generally bullish for reflationary assets like commodities and risky investments. Invictus has launched a new mobile app with an AI-enabled chatbot providing retail investors with access to research analysis.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Three Economic Cycles4:43 - Housing Sector Health7:08 - Consumer Spending & Deficits16:33 - CPI Metrics & Adjustments18:02 - Income, Wages, & Demand20:14 - Fed, CPI, Yields, Cuts26:05 - Commodity Demand30:46 - Metal Prices Vs. Miners32:10 - Oil Market Outlook35:23 - Strategies with Miners38:36 - Positioning & Cash40:10 - Investors Vs. Consumers41:25 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeHow the business cycle's sub-cycles (real growth, inflation, monetary policy) influence asset price action.Copper miners' outperformance signals real economic acceleration; consider productive assets and cyclical risk.A stronger US dollar based on interest rate parity could benefit reflationary assets like commodities.Guest Links:Website: https://invictus-research.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvictusMacroMichael Singleton is Senior Analyst at Invictus. He studied finance and theology at the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated summa cum laude. After graduating, he worked for several years with Broad Run Investment Management. There he spent most of my time conducting deep, fundamental diligence on the highest quality companies. That grounding gained him a thorough, bottom-up approach to research and has proven invaluable.Since then, his focus has been spent studying the economy at-large and its relationship with liquid asset markets. There is a massive hole in the anlysis market for timely, thoughtful, and accessible macroeconomic research. That's why he became involved at Invictus.
-
Tom welcomes economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to the show. Williams shares his background in economics and economic modeling, which led him to scrutinize government statistics due to their potential inaccuracies. He became particularly concerned with employment data revisions and manipulation. Despite improvements, he remains skeptical about inconsistencies' impact on forecasting accuracy.
Williams discusses the misrepresentation of inflation through changes in reporting methodologies, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This underreporting of inflation affects cost-of-living adjustments and pension payouts, leaving retirees facing significant financial challenges. The pandemic exacerbated these issues with distorted CPI reporting.
He also criticizes the current economic situation's representation through GDP growth rates, which may not accurately represent underlying economic conditions. Inflation can lead to an increase in reported real GDP without actual sales growth. The excessive money supply injected into the economy during the pandemic is another major contributor to inflation.
Despite attempts to control inflation through interest rate hikes, the economy has suffered negative growth in critical sectors like retail sales, industrial production, housing, and employment. The Federal Reserve prioritizes the banking system over the economy, making high interest rates more beneficial for banks than for consumers. The historically large disparity between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) further highlights a weak economy.
John predicts that despite rising GDP, there is a potential worsening in the next six months with underlying economic downturn and potential high or even hyperinflation. He advises holding precious metals like physical gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and preserving purchasing power during these uncertain times. Gold has been an effective hedge against inflation over the last 40 years, although it can also be manipulated.
Williams believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene with monetary policies despite their inflationary effects. He encourages listeners to visit shadowgovernmentstats.com for more information and to contact him directly at [email protected]. His website was recently taken down, but the old site remains accessible for background information.
Talking Points From This Episode
Government statistics, particularly inflation data, can be manipulated and underreported, leading to inaccurate economic representations.
The Federal Reserve's priority is keeping the banking system afloat rather than addressing underlying economic issues, causing negative consequences for consumers.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may not accurately represent economic conditions as it can be artificially boosted by inflation and government interventions.
Precious metals like gold serve as a hedge against inflation and help preserve purchasing power during uncertain economic times.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Background in Business4:15 - Models Being Redefined12:08 - Inflation Reporting17:26 - Releases & Revisions25:25 - Redefining Everything33:12 - Inflation Vs. GDP35:37 - Inflation Causations37:36 - Money Supply Measures46:56 - Real Economic Outlook50:39 - Gold - Inflation Hedge52:35 - Fed & The Next Crisis54:53 - Debt to GDP & Rates59:15 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://shadowstats.comE-Mail: [email protected]
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. -
Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the economics of Bitcoin mining, focusing on the lifespan and economic viability of Bitcoin mining hardware. According to St. Angelo, major US Bitcoin miners Marathon and Riot account for significant portions of global hash rate production, with Bitcoin mining consuming approximately 1-2% of US electricity. However, Bitcoin miners' hardware depreciates rapidly; while they last five years, they become almost obsolete in two years, producing only around 90% of their total Bitcoin output by that time.St. Angelo discusses the implications of this rapid depreciation on sustainability and profitability, raising concerns about underreported depreciation costs, which can mislead investors. To fund the capital expenditure required to replace these miners, companies issue large amounts of shares, leading to significant dilution for existing shareholders.The conversation also touches on the potential use of stranded energy for Bitcoin mining but expresses concerns about its scarcity as energy demand grows. St. Angelo compares this to the gold mining industry, where inflation caused by government actions impacts production costs. He argues that the high depreciation rate and underreporting of these costs in the Bitcoin mining industry could lead to significant financial challenges.Marathon and Riot's claims about not needing to issue further shares for growth remain uncertain. Steve expresses concerns regarding Bitcoin's energy consumption compared to gold mining and its unsustainability due to the need for continuous miner replacement. Despite his criticism of Bitcoin, he acknowledges that some investors are avid supporters. He emphasizes physical metals like gold as a higher quality collateral due to their durability and lack of ongoing energy consumption.Additionally, Steve discusses trends in Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows and outflows between Western countries and Asia, particularly China. While there have been significant net outflows from Western Gold ETFs for several years, Eastern countries like China have experienced substantial increases in their Gold ETFs due to central banks' large-scale gold purchases. The West's potential shift towards real assets like gold is suggested, given the risks associated with US Treasuries and money market accounts. However, acquiring gold with potentially devalued dollars presents a challenge for Western investors.Talking Points From This EpisodeSteve discusses Bitcoin mining's rapid hardware depreciation, its impact on profitability, and sustainability concerns.Marathon and Riot's Bitcoin mining operations face significant underreported depreciation costs.Gold ETF trends: Eastern countries' surge in gold purchases versus Western net outflows.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Economics of BTC Mining?4:10 - Mining Economics & Charts13:30 - Hash Rates & New Hardware17:07 - Share Dilution Solutions19:34 - Underperformance & CAP-Ex25:30 - All-In Costs & Mining27:56 - Electricity Consumption30:40 - End to End Depreciation37:17 - Bitcoin Value & Time38:35 - Comparing Mining Industries41:37 - Gold Mining Total Costs44:08 - Bitcoin Vs. Gold48:30 - Chinese Gold ETF Flows53:10 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_gIndependent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI "Energy Returned On Invested" stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy ...
-
In this engaging episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics welcomes Dave Bradley, a pioneering figure in the Bitcoin world. Known as Canada's strongest and best-looking Bitcoin entrepreneur, Dave is the founder of the first Bitcoin store, co-founder of Bull Bitcoin, and a board member of Bitcoin Well.They explore the intersection of gold and Bitcoin against the backdrop of growing awareness regarding monetary debasement and the rise of freedom movement communities.Dave emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between money and investments, considering gold as a store of value rather than money. Many investments have taken on characteristics of money due to debasement and muddling risk-adjusted returns. He shares concerns over increased risk tolerance among individuals due to rampant central bank money printing.The conversation delves into the emergence of alternative cryptocurrencies, which Dave views as companies competing with a protocol rather than contenders to Bitcoin's decentralized form of money. Despite over 10,000 altcoins, most have failed to capture significant value or market cap. Dave shares his personal journey of discovering Bitcoin in 2010 and the missed opportunities that came with it, including regretful sales in the early days.The discussion covers Bitcoin's potential as a form of money, surpassing gold in terms of divisibility, ease of verification, and digital nature that makes it more practical for transactions. Dave notes that Bitcoin has a role to play during times of censorship. In the future role Bitcoins role will likely to continue to strengthen as traditional monetary policies falter. Dave concludes by inviting listeners to attend the Bitcoin Rodeo conference for valuable insights on real-world applications of Bitcoin.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:40 - Freedom Groups & Sound Money3:34 - Money Vs. Investments5:30 - Exchange Risks & Fraud10:47 - Alt Coins & DeFi12:14 - His Bitcoin Background16:17 - Lessons Learned18:40 - The Unbalanced Portfolio21:28 - Property Rights Erosion22:42 - Bitcoin Vs. Gold29:00 - Store of Value Vs Use31:18 - A Permissionless System32:45 - Grassroots Markets34:45 - Trucker Protest & Gov't37:05 - Counterparty Risk39:58 - Excess Energy & Solutions44:19 - Bitcoin Mining Business46:30 - The Future of Bitcoin?51:25 - ETFS & Paper Promises?55:05 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeDave views gold as a store of value and Bitcoin more as decentralized money, surpassing gold's divisibility, ease, and digital nature for transactions.Bitcoin serves as backup currency during traditional monetary policy falters; government has limited control over Bitcoin wallets during events like protests.Guest links:Bitcoin Conference: https://BitcoinRodeo.comPromo: $71 Off Tickets to the Bitcoin Rodeo. Use Code: "Gold"Website: https://BitcoinBrains.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/BitcoinBrainsDave Bradley is widely known as the Strongest and Best Looking Bitcoin Entrepreneur in Canada. After getting into bitcoin in 2010, Dave founded the world's first physical bitcoin store in 2013. Dave later went on to co-found the iconic bitcoin company, Bull Bitco
-
!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/u13ry0f"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");Rumble("play", {"video":"v4rqitf","div":"rumble_v4rqitf"});In a not-to-be-missed episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest, Robert Bryce. Robert is an author, journalist, film producer, and public speaker.Together, they delve into energy issues as Bryce voices his concerns over the fragility of the electric grid and the potential consequences of underestimating the value of a reliable energy supply. He recounts personal experiences with power disruptions and highlights significant contrasts between developed countries' energy abundance and challenges faced in places like South Africa and Beirut. The discussion centers on the 2021 Texas blackout, which shed light on renewable energy's role during the crisis and its limitations when needed most. Bryce underscores the danger of making the electric grid overly reliant on non-base load power. He advocates for recognizing natural gas's crucial role in securing energy stability during inclement weather. He also criticizes initiatives like Michael Bloomberg's Beyond Carbon Campaign, as they could potentially worsen the grid's vulnerability and threaten national energy security.Robert raises concerns about inaccurate information and analysis regarding the energy landscape, specifically concerning hydrogen being misrepresented as a renewable resource by certain media outlets. He laments the negative impact of these misleading narratives on public understanding and decision-making processes. They also discuss challenges of the hydrogen fuel cycle and why it's more of a transportation carrier system than an energy source.Robert discusses how modern energy policy is regressive in nature and its outsized impact on poverty and the wealth gap. He argues that these policies, including those related to climate change and electric vehicles, increase electricity costs disproportionately for low-income and middle-class households despite Democrats' advocacy for the public's welfare. Robert believes that energy affordability should be a bipartisan concern due to its critical role in the overall economy. He also criticizes the media's portrayal of the global energy transition, pointing out that developing countries like China and India are not adhering to the same goals as the West, focusing instead on building coal power plants to meet their immediate energy needs.Robert advocates for pragmatism and a clear-eyed approach to energy production and consumption. He shares his skepticism towards renewable energy's low power density sources, such as wind and solar, and champions high power density sources like natural gas and nuclear. Robert also criticizes the corporatism surrounding renewable energy development and emphasizes the importance of understanding the realities of energy needs in light of increasing demand from developing countries.Lastly, they explore the challenges of rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) from a fossil fuel-based system. Despite promises, EVs are not yet capable of replacing oil as a critical commodity for commerce due to the enormous energy consumption in the U.S. transportation sector. The limitations and challenges of batteries, including their energy density, material intensity, and dependence on Chinese supply chains, are discussed. The Biden administration's energy policies are criticized for making the auto sector dependent on components from overseas while stifling the development of oil and coal-based power sources. Financial losses incurred by EV manufacturers like Ford and R...
-
Tom welcomes back Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management to discuss the business aspects of the mining industry.
Adrian stresses the importance of understanding a company's financial situation beyond initial disappointments, using Barrick Gold as an example of a company with a history of optimistic production estimates leading to missed targets but effectively managing these issues. He emphasizes the significance of cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.
The conversation touches upon the challenges faced by mining operations, such as equipment failure, geopolitical risks, maturing mines, and hurdles common to every operation. Fortuna is used as an example of a company whose significant zinc production should be considered in evaluating its revenue distribution among different metals.
Adrian discusses the disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, attributing it to gold's strong performance amidst central banks and Chinese investors seeking safe havens and the broad stock market's strength. Despite potential risks, such as a pause or reduction in buying by central banks and a negative macroeconomic environment, Adrian highlights the opportunity presented by undervalued gold stocks.
The speaker also touches upon exploration expenditures and their importance in discovering new deposits despite the increasing difficulty of finding them. In his investment strategy, Adrian emphasizes investing in senior miners and major royalty companies during the current market cycle due to their undervalued status and likelihood to move first when the gold sector takes off.
The conversation concludes with a discussion on economic stress in financial systems caused by excessive debt accumulated during periods of ultra-low interest rates, with maturing low-interest loans causing strain for households and corporations between 2024 and 2026. Adrian emphasizes the undervaluation of gold mining companies considering gold prices and their margins.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:16 - Miners & Missed Targets6:43 - All-In-Costs Metrics9:47 - Production Misses14:39 - Risks & Juridiction18:50 - Valuing Poly Deposits20:55 - Gold Price & Miners26:17 - Closing The Gap?30:19 - Mergers & Timing Cycles33:16 - Companies & Exploration36:12 - Portfolio Strategies39:37 - Royalty & Streaming42:16 - Low Premiums on Metals46:20 - Silver & Sentiment47:47 - OTC Purchases & Reports50:28 - Consumers & Metrics53:00 - Biggest Stress Points57:30 - Long-Err-Term Bonds?1:02:48 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The financial situation of mining companies, even those with initial disappointments, should be thoroughly understood for long-term investment opportunities.
Barrick Gold serves as an example of managing production misses effectively.
Cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs are crucial for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.
Various factors that have led to a disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, presenting opportunity for undervalued gold stocks.
Guest Links:Website: https://adrianday.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global an... -
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Robert Sinn to share his background in precious metals, junior mining, and biotech investing. Robert discusses his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis through his father's experiences at coin shows and investments. The conversation later focuses on the Federal Reserve's recent announcement of tapering quantitative tightening and its potential impact on market positioning, emphasizing fiscal dominance and potential softer data suggesting a possible negative non-farm payroll print.
Sinn further explores the Fed's shift in inflation targeting, proposing that it might adopt a new, unannounced inflation target above 2%, around 3%. He explains that markets have accepted the Fed's decision not to cut rates as frequently as anticipated, but anticipate at least one more rate cut this year. Parallels are drawn between the late 1970s and the current situation regarding government spending policies and inflation trends.
The discussion then shifts towards energy investments, with Sinn emphasizing uranium and natural gas as crucial areas due to their baseload power generation capabilities and affordability. He acknowledges the transition towards cleaner energy but argues that it will take considerable time for this shift to fully materialize. Sinn holds stocks in both oil companies and renewable energy sectors, adopting a long-term perspective.
Theys explore differences in debt structures between China and the U.S., their implications on markets, and strategies for investing in gold. The conversation shifts to Japan's debt ownership versus the world owning U.S. debt. This leads to a discussion about China's debt structure, which sees the government act as the backstop for all debt within their economy.
Robert then delves into the Fed's influence on markets and its ability to impact financial conditions without changing interest rates. This interview concludes with an emphasis on gold investing, stressing the significance of global data, especially from China, when analyzing gold market trends. Various strategies are suggested for investors looking to stay in the gold market during volatile periods. Robert discusses the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and focusing on the structural bull market trends.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Background & Metals3:25 - Juniors & Biotech5:29 - Fed Reactions10:02 - Fed Inflation Targets11:36 - Market Reactions13:25 - 1970s Parallels16:55 - Energy Investments20:00 - Seasonality in Biotech21:22 - War Headlines & Gold23:12 - Gold A New Era?26:49 - A Tectonic Shift28:34 - China Vs. U.S. Debt30:43 - Fed Rate Clown Show34:18 - Trader Positioning37:39 - Bull & Staying Invested40:43 - Portfolio Structuring46:00 - Rules For Juniors49:50 - New Discoveries53:30 - Lessons & Danger Signs59:40 - Go Long Yoga Pants1:00:41 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Roberts background in precious metals and his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis.
The Fed's potential shift in inflation targeting: new unannounced target above 2%, around 3%.
Energy investments: uranium, natural gas, baseload power, affordability, and long-term perspective.
Strategies for holding on during volatile bull markets.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CEOTechnicianSubstack: https://robertsinn.substack.comCEO.CA: https://ceo.ca/@goldfingerYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV_3gUkg2hbl-Fni4XxNb_Q
Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession. -
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Don Durrett, an experienced author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss gold prices and the economic implications. Durrett believes an imminent hard economic landing will boost his bullish stance on gold. In March 2023, gold reached new highs above $2050, while silver showed significant gains. However, miners have not followed suit.Durrett considers the present economic climate different from previous periods due to the Federal Reserve's reduced ability to revive the economy. He highlights that while the US economy grew and used debt in the 1990s, it eventually balanced its budget. However, since then, the US economy has reportedly been declining for approximately 25 years, leading to significant global shifts like countries abandoning US bonds and equities and increasing interest in gold as a reserve currency.Japan's bond and currency struggles could potentially trigger a crisis due to their substantial US treasury holdings. Durrett discusses the potential impact of Asian countries purchasing gold and the importance of oil purchases in gold-importing countries like Japan and China.Don expresses bearish views on the stock market and bullish predictions for silver prices due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts like those seen with the Hunt Brothers in the past.Don shares his perspective on gold miners using the HUI index to identify buying and selling opportunities. He considers anything below $250 on the HUI cheap, with levels between $200 and $225 being the buy zone. Opportunities for cheaper stocks extend from $225 to $250. However, as the HUI approaches $300, fewer cheap stocks become available. He anticipates the gold miners' bull market hasn't started yet but expects it to resume in the next couple of months and predicts a potential dip in gold and silver prices before the significant uptrend begins. The summer may not be as uneventful this year due to potential rapid market movements once risk-on sentiment shifts to risk-off.Don has been successful with mid-tier producers some of which have seen substantial growth through acquisitions. He also discusses his investment strategy, holding stocks amidst potential economic downturns, diversification through various investments such as silver, crypto, and physical preparation by selling to the top. He also mentions the unsustainability of constant wars due to increasing budget deficits, implying that peace may prevail as America retreats from its aggressive role on the global stage.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Article & Gold ATH4:25 - Rates, Risks & Spending18:37 - Japanese Bond Markets23:40 - C.B. Gold Buying27:27 - Gold Price Predictions31:34 - Silver Expectations37:50 - Hunt Brothers 2.0?43:23 - ETF Metal Flows48:07 - Miners Bull Market?51:22 - Summer Doldrums?54:30 - Wall Street Interest?1:01:22 - Miners Risk Vs. Return1:10:00 - Stocks & Great Taking?1:15:10 - Rapid Changes Coming1:21:22 - Optimism & Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeDon Durrett believes an economic downturn will boost gold prices; gold & silver reached new highs in March 2023, but miners lagged behind.Bearish on stocks, bullish on silver due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts.America's aggressive role on the global stage unsustainable due to budget deficits, peace may prevail.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrialSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years.
-
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, economist and wealth advisor Jonathan Davis once again joins host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the theme of inflation and its implications for the current economic era. Davis argues that we have transitioned from a disinflationary era lasting over 40 years into one characterized by financial repression, which he defines as higher inflation. Tracing this shift back to the post-World War II era when debt levels were unsustainable, Davis contends that recent financial crises were not caused by COVID but rather by 'shenanigans' in financial markets. With interest rates reaching historic lows by 2020, Davis predicts that inflation for the next generation will be between 5% and 10%, and interest rates will significantly increase from past decade levels. This transition to financial repression is a response to politicians, central bankers, and bankers' desire to maintain inflation rather than risk deflation.
The conversation also touches upon China's economic shift from manufacturing to consumer industries and property development, expressing concern over the large number of unsold homes in China despite continued commodity demand. Mr. Davis discusses the historical perspective of asset classes, emphasizing substantial returns from stocks, bonds, and property over recent decades but anticipates declining value as interest rates rise. He advocates investing in commodities as a long-term strategy.
Jonathan then discusses the current state of the housing market, despite higher interest rates and the end of fixed-rate mortgages, there hasn't been a significant impact on the housing market yet due to continued employment and low mortgage rates. He also touches upon commercial real estate, suggesting businesses have been able to mitigate costs by subletting unused space and private equity firms delaying effects of the market downturn.
Jonathan shares insights on oil prices' correlation with inflation, anticipating a rebound and potentially reaching $200 within the next few years due to insufficient production relative to economic growth, causing significant drops in energy stocks. He encourages staying informed, adapting investment strategies, remaining cautious, and avoiding excessive greed.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - The End of an Era13:05 - Real Rates & Growth20:10 - De-China-Fication23:15 - Lending & Global Growth27:32 - Real Vs. Nominal Returns29:00 - Dow Long-Term Chart30:49 - 10-Year Treasury Chart36:24 - Housing Markets & Rates41:34 - Commercial Real Estate45:10 - Uranium Thoughts51:20 - Miners & Juniors55:34 - Crude Oil & Energy1:00:53 - Commodities & HODL Gold1:05:57 - Eastern Metal Buying1:08:30 - Maintaining Objectivity1:10:44 - Uranium & Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode
Davis argues for a new era of financial repression, characterized by higher inflation, due to unsustainable debt levels since the post-World War II era.
Significant price increases for uranium, gold, and silver miners, and global energy in the next one to three years due to low supply and increasing demand.
Politicians and central bankers will maintain inflation rather than risk deflation, which would benefit consumers but negatively impact the wealthy.
Guest Links:Website: https://jonathandaviswm.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/j0nathandavisTwitter: https://twitter.com/boomsbusts
Jonathan Davis BA MBA FCII FPFS, Chartered Financial Planner, is the Wealth Adviser. He is a former Chairman of the London Region of The Institute of Financial Planning (now Chartered Wealth Management Institute).
Jonathan has been delivering wealth advice since 1987. Johnathan established the Jonathan Davis Wealth Management in January 2007, where they provide a niche Wealth Management advising a small number of clients. He established this firm in January 2007.
He has over 1000 appearances in the press, radio, and TV. He is often asked to comment on financial issues. -
Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show.
Lyn discusses abundant and scarce things in investing, focusing on the era of fiscal dominance that has led to bonds becoming abundant. This is due to large budget deficits and private debt being transferred to the public sector. The implications include higher average fiscal-driven inflation and potential impact on asset prices and tax receipts.
The Federal Reserve's ability to perfectly tune the economy to avoid recession for the next decade is questioned. In emerging markets, stocks may rise in local currency but decrease in hard money terms during recessions. The U.S., however, is experiencing fiscal dominance where public debt exceeds GDP, making it harder to fight inflation and slow down borrowing. While interest rates can help make a country's currency attractive or reduce borrowing demand, raising interest rates results in ballooning expenses, offsetting disinflationary forces. The commercial real estate sector is heavily impacted, but travel companies, seniors, and wealthy individuals may benefit from higher interest rates.
Lyn discusses the SVB bank crisis in 2023, suggesting that the Fed might prioritize saving banks or the Treasury market over controlling inflation, limiting monetary policy flexibility. The potential outcomes of interest rate cuts include growth and demand for commodities but less effectiveness due to fiscal dominance. She emphasizes energy exposure as a hedge against inflationary pressures.
Investment strategies include owning assets related to dense forms of energy in the energy sector, focusing on demographics, aging workforces, and understanding China's labor supply and demand. Alternative investment portfolios like the permanent portfolio and IV portfolio deviate from the traditional 60-40 stock-bond split by including gold and commodities for diversification.
The development of Bitcoin ETFs is seen as inevitable due to its size and liquidity, but risks include hacks and confiscations. Developed countries generally accept Bitcoin as a store of value while regulating its use as a medium of exchange. The importance of building tools to make Bitcoin more efficient for users is emphasized.
Lyn's book, "Broken Money," discusses global financial system issues, with countries relying on the US dollar facing negative consequences if it devalues or if the US manipulates currencies. Running large structural trade deficits is necessary but comes with negative effects such as decreased export competitiveness and de-industrialization. The shift towards more neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin in response to unreliable US dollars is emphasized, along with considering multiple variables and being data-dependent.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Bonds, Rates, & Inflation8:42 - Fed and Recessions13:30 - Fiscal Dominance & Stability19:28 - Contrasting the 1940s23:06 - Feds Blinks at Bank Crisis25:54 - Deficits & Debt Rollover29:54 - Rate Cuts & Outcomes31:52 - Easing and Hard Assets33:14 - Energy Exposure?37:40 - Demographics & Demand41:26 - China & Manufacturing44:42 - Labor & Underinvestment47:20 - Skills & Semiconductors50:00 - Portfolio & Reallocating53:20 - Bitcoin ETFs & Impacts?56:06 - Capital Controls & Walls59:23 - Dollar & Broken Money1:03:57 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Fiscal dominance, inflation, and importance of shifting to neutral assets.
Understanding multiple forces in macroeconomics and being data-dependent.
A Shift to Neutral Assets in a World of Fiscal Dominance and Unreliable Currencies
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactWebsite: https://www.lynalden.com/
Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, "Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance." Her site provides investment research and strategy, -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob is founder of 321gold and 321energy.com, and a former Marine Corps fighter pilot during Vietnam. Moriarty believes the year 2024 could be catastrophic due to geopolitical issues and a greater financial crisis but sees opportunities in gold and silver, which have broken out and are expected to continue for the next decade. He emphasizes sentiment and China's control of the gold market as key drivers of their prices. Moriarty discusses potential peace in the Middle East after Israel's conflict with Iran, questioning the sustainability of the US sending large aid packages due to bankruptcy.Moriarty advocates for ignoring external factors like interest rates, currencies, and politics when investing in gold and silver, using sentiment as a useful tool. He highlights China's significant impact on the gold market and the potential negative vote against US treasuries and the dollar. Moriarty expresses concerns about rising interest rates and their impact on real estate markets, especially commercial property. He also discusses the recent surge in base metals as undervalued commodities and a shift towards commodities from overvalued assets like stocks.Bob emphasizes the importance of understanding current developments in economy and society, including immigration policies, corruption, and diplomacy. He criticizes the increasing divide between ordinary people and the establishment and advocates for conversation and understanding between opposing sides. He criticizes US foreign policy in Ukraine and advocates for diplomacy to resolve conflicts. He also discusses the impact of misinformation on society and expresses skepticism towards media narratives.Talking Points From This EpisodeHe sees 2024 as a potential crisis year but believes in gold opportunities; emphasizes sentiment and China's influence.Relative calm in the Middle East is possible after the recent Israel-Iran conflict, but US aid sustainability questioned.Misinformation if not outright falsehoods in the mainstream media and the importance of diploamcy globally.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - A Catastrophic Year?2:00 - Whose Driving Metals?4:52 - Warning Signals5:43 - Oil Prices & Iran9:10 - Balance of Power13:30 - Aid to Ukraine19:37 - Measuring Sentiment21:46 - Lessons in FOMO23:24 - Eastern Gold Shift25:10 - Mortgages & Real Estate27:19 - Base Metal Indications28:37 - Government & Corruption30:57 - Reasons for Optimism32:12 - Diplomacy & Conversation37:53 - Alt Media & Opinions43:53 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
-
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, who manages investments worth $1.2 billion in gold and related assets. They discuss the ASA closed-end fund, which invests in precious metals mining, processing, or exploration companies, and is unique due to its longer-term focus compared to ETFs. Merk took over management in 2019 and transformed it into an investment vehicle for junior mining companies. This fund helps small development and exploration firms by providing capital during funding rounds and increasing their share prices, making them more attractive to larger investors.Merk also talks about the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies on gold mining and equities during economic downturns or periods of easing financial conditions. He shares his past predictions for a possible recession in 2023 but acknowledges recessions are unpredictable. Merk believes that gold miners provide value over the long term, despite risks, and stresses the importance of risk assessment.Axel discusses Saba Capital Management's ongoing attempts to gain control over ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited. If successful, this could negatively impact the mining industry due to potential cost-cutting measures or changes to the fund's mandate. Despite expressing support for ASA as a fund manager, Axel encourages constructive dialogue between all parties. Axel highlights ASA's unique features that make it difficult for activists like Saba to achieve their goals easily. The future implications include continued engagement with Saba or potential liquidation if they gain control, and the importance of shareholder votes in the outcome. Investors are encouraged to stay informed and vote in proxy contests.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - ASA Closed End Fund3:42 - Funding for Juniors10:43 - The Monetary Environment15:26 - Fed & Distorted Data17:57 - Recent Moves in Gold20:50 - Closed Vs. Open Funds25:08 - Strategic Investments26:42 - ASA Board Concerns32:16 - SABA Contested Proxy35:10 - A Call to Shareholders37:30 - Friday Apr 26 Vote41:06 - Future for the Fund?44:33 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxelMerkWebsite: https://www.merkinvestments.com/Blog Post: https://www.merkinvestments.com/insights-and-reports/2024-03-18Website: https://asaltd.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/axelmerk/detail/recent-activity/Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/4ebpcaewAxel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds.Founder of the firm bearing his name, Merk is an expert on macro trends. He is a sought-after speaker, contributor, and author; Axel Merk's book, Sustainable Wealth, describes how the greater economic universe works, how it might affect your finances, and how to manage those finances to seek financial stability. Axel Merk holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and an M.Sc. in Computer Science from Brown University.Axel Merk founded Merk Investments in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to California. He has grown Merk Investments into an investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.Axel lives in the San Francisco Bay Area with his wife and their four children. Furthermore, he is a marathon runner and a private pilot.
-
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron to discuss the markets and current geopolitical instability. Although gold prices saw a spike due to recent events between Iran and Israel, they gave back most of the gains shortly after. Christopher emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and long-term trends when analyzing gold price movements.Chris discusses how the Dow Jones and gold have been trading in lockstep due to the preoccupation with Fed policy. They note that during past bull markets, average investors shifted funds from stock indexes into gold or silver when they underperformed. However, the current cycle shows a flat Dow to gold ratio for the last eight years, suggesting mainstream investors are yet to enter the precious metals sector. The potential implications of this situation and its impact on future market performance are emphasized.Despite gold ETFs losing gold holdings as mainstream investors sell their shares even during price surges, they predict gold should come back to retest its recent highs before experiencing a multi-year trend of significant new highs. Christopher shares his insights from the 2008 financial crisis and how he now prioritizes price data over fundamental analysis. They also touch upon historical gold price trends, including how gold always retests breakout points after significant price increases.Christopher discusses the potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to shift from its hawkish stance being a global or regional war. He suggests that higher interest rates may lead to higher commodity prices and emphasizes the need for markets to reconsider their current beliefs. The conversation then shifts to silver, which has broken its downward trend but faces significant resistance at $30 per ounce. Christopher is skeptical about silver's potential return as a full-time monetary metal in perpetuity but acknowledges the possibility during periods of financial instability.Chris emphasizes the importance of being aware and prepared amidst current turbulent times while also encouraging listeners not to stop living their lives.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Geopolitical Tensions4:37 - Sentiment & ATH Gold9:15 - Dow Vs. Gold12:00 - Dow Gold Ratio15:52 - Opportunity?18:20 - Breakouts & Retests23:14 - Fundamentals & China27:00 - Catalysts & Israel32:50 - Inflation Narratives38:30 - Fed Shift?40:33 - Silver & Resistance44:45 - Monetary Silver?45:54 - Miners & Resources51:16 - Jurisdictional Risks55:57 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeImportance of historical data for analyzing gold price movements amid current geopolitical instability; Gold ETFs losing holdings despite recent surgesMarkets ignoring fundamental supply and demand in favor of Fed policy and the potential return of mainstream investors to precious metals sector.Predicting gold retesting highs before significant new price trends.Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGoldWebsite: https://igoldadvisor.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9QChristopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business,
-
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back John Rubino, a former Wall Street financial analyst and author, to discuss the current bull market in gold. Rubino asserts that gold's intrinsic value is significantly higher than its present price, which could reach $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis. He also posits that a potential collapse of the financial system due to debt could lead to a return to a gold-backed currency or a currency reset.
They explore the implications of inflation and currency devaluation on various assets including stocks, real estate, bonds, and gold. John argues that adjusting investment numbers for inflation offers a different perspective on asset value over time. He warns about potential risks in the financial system, such as a commercial real estate crash or an equities bear market. He also discusses the deficit in the silver market, which could result in significant price spikes and potential defaults on futures contracts.
Despite uncertainty, John suggests investment strategies for investing in real assets like gold and silver. Investors should consider gold as a long-term investment and focus on positive goals during uncertain times to build capital for future challenges. Gold is currently seen as a store of value, but demand for it is minimal but starting to rise. Once gold breaks through resistance and support levels, it could lead to a significant run in the market.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Gold Market Developments4:10 - Gold Backing & Debt8:15 - Who Will Buy US Bonds?12:45 - Inflation Outlook17:28 - Asset Valuations22 :38 - Gold Drivers & Geopolitics27:26 - Next Financial Crisis?33:10 - Silver & Supply Issues38:10 - Silver Industrial Demand42:38 - Investment Demand & FOMO47:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold's potential value increase, reaching $5,000-$10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis.
Risks of financial panic, potential scenarios like commercial real estate crash or equities bear market.
Investment strategies proposed to protect against times of crises.
Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.comBooks: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v
John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack. -
Tom welcomes back Ravi Sood to the show to discuss the many changes in the economy and mining industry. Ravi touches upon various topics related to the global financial system, gold prices, and the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. He discusses the lack of significant changes in the financial system since the 1970s and the potential role of Bitcoin in challenging traditional monetary systems. He also highlights the uncertainty and potential risks in the current economic situation due to the pandemic and other factors. The conversation also delves into the importance of investing in physical commodities like gold and other minerals, as well as the role of technology in driving demand for these resources.
Furthermore, they explore the effects of a strong US dollar on the economy and suggests alternative policies to improve trade balance. The discussion also covers the challenges in regulating cryptocurrencies and the potential impact of CBDCs. The gold market is analyzed, with the author noting signs of optimism amidst a perceived bubble, and the mining industry's financial issues are also discussed, along with the interest in renewable energy transition and the cyclical nature of commodities business.
Throughout the interview, Ravi emphasizes the need for a better understanding of the financial system and the importance of making informed decisions based on current economic conditions and potential future changes.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction3:30 - Gold, Bias & Sound Money10:17 - Global Can Kicking17:42 - A No Win Scenario?20:00 - US Commodity Demand22:28 - Feds Levers & Control Risk26:44 - Bitcoin, Banks, & ETFs33:50 - Commercial Banks & Economy36:05 - Unhedged Mining44:52 - Gold Highs & Reality49:05 - Mining Industry Health56:17 - Energy & GDP Correlation59:00 - 3 Phases of New Energy1:02:20 - Green Energy Storage1:05:04 - Commodities & Capital1:07:18 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The financial system has not seen a major shift since the 1970s, with concerns about sustainability of the existing monetary systems.
Physical commodities like gold and other minerals could help the United States address economic challenges by creating jobs and reducing reliance on foreign currency.
The gold market exhibits signs of optimism for an eventual end to its current bubble, with factors such as increased production and lower interest rates affecting its future.
Guest Links:Website: https://golcondagold.comWebsite: https://evrec.energy
Ravi Sood is Chairman of Golconda Gold and an experienced financier focused on emerging markets. Mr. Sood was the founder and former CEO of Navina Asset Management, a Toronto-based investment firm that was acquired by a major financial institution. Mr. Sood also serves as a director of several companies including Blockchain Power Trust, Feronia Inc., and Eve & Co. Previously Mr. Sood was a director of ICC Labs (acquired) and Elgin Mining (acquired).
Ravi Sood has a bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Waterloo. - Visa fler
