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Tom welcomes economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to the show. Williams shares his background in economics and economic modeling, which led him to scrutinize government statistics due to their potential inaccuracies. He became particularly concerned with employment data revisions and manipulation. Despite improvements, he remains skeptical about inconsistencies' impact on forecasting accuracy.
Williams discusses the misrepresentation of inflation through changes in reporting methodologies, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This underreporting of inflation affects cost-of-living adjustments and pension payouts, leaving retirees facing significant financial challenges. The pandemic exacerbated these issues with distorted CPI reporting.
He also criticizes the current economic situation's representation through GDP growth rates, which may not accurately represent underlying economic conditions. Inflation can lead to an increase in reported real GDP without actual sales growth. The excessive money supply injected into the economy during the pandemic is another major contributor to inflation.
Despite attempts to control inflation through interest rate hikes, the economy has suffered negative growth in critical sectors like retail sales, industrial production, housing, and employment. The Federal Reserve prioritizes the banking system over the economy, making high interest rates more beneficial for banks than for consumers. The historically large disparity between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) further highlights a weak economy.
John predicts that despite rising GDP, there is a potential worsening in the next six months with underlying economic downturn and potential high or even hyperinflation. He advises holding precious metals like physical gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and preserving purchasing power during these uncertain times. Gold has been an effective hedge against inflation over the last 40 years, although it can also be manipulated.
Williams believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene with monetary policies despite their inflationary effects. He encourages listeners to visit shadowgovernmentstats.com for more information and to contact him directly at [email protected]. His website was recently taken down, but the old site remains accessible for background information.
Talking Points From This Episode
Government statistics, particularly inflation data, can be manipulated and underreported, leading to inaccurate economic representations.
The Federal Reserve's priority is keeping the banking system afloat rather than addressing underlying economic issues, causing negative consequences for consumers.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may not accurately represent economic conditions as it can be artificially boosted by inflation and government interventions.
Precious metals like gold serve as a hedge against inflation and help preserve purchasing power during uncertain economic times.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Background in Business4:15 - Models Being Redefined12:08 - Inflation Reporting17:26 - Releases & Revisions25:25 - Redefining Everything33:12 - Inflation Vs. GDP35:37 - Inflation Causations37:36 - Money Supply Measures46:56 - Real Economic Outlook50:39 - Gold - Inflation Hedge52:35 - Fed & The Next Crisis54:53 - Debt to GDP & Rates59:15 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://shadowstats.comE-Mail: [email protected]
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. -
Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the economics of Bitcoin mining, focusing on the lifespan and economic viability of Bitcoin mining hardware. According to St. Angelo, major US Bitcoin miners Marathon and Riot account for significant portions of global hash rate production, with Bitcoin mining consuming approximately 1-2% of US electricity. However, Bitcoin miners' hardware depreciates rapidly; while they last five years, they become almost obsolete in two years, producing only around 90% of their total Bitcoin output by that time.St. Angelo discusses the implications of this rapid depreciation on sustainability and profitability, raising concerns about underreported depreciation costs, which can mislead investors. To fund the capital expenditure required to replace these miners, companies issue large amounts of shares, leading to significant dilution for existing shareholders.The conversation also touches on the potential use of stranded energy for Bitcoin mining but expresses concerns about its scarcity as energy demand grows. St. Angelo compares this to the gold mining industry, where inflation caused by government actions impacts production costs. He argues that the high depreciation rate and underreporting of these costs in the Bitcoin mining industry could lead to significant financial challenges.Marathon and Riot's claims about not needing to issue further shares for growth remain uncertain. Steve expresses concerns regarding Bitcoin's energy consumption compared to gold mining and its unsustainability due to the need for continuous miner replacement. Despite his criticism of Bitcoin, he acknowledges that some investors are avid supporters. He emphasizes physical metals like gold as a higher quality collateral due to their durability and lack of ongoing energy consumption.Additionally, Steve discusses trends in Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows and outflows between Western countries and Asia, particularly China. While there have been significant net outflows from Western Gold ETFs for several years, Eastern countries like China have experienced substantial increases in their Gold ETFs due to central banks' large-scale gold purchases. The West's potential shift towards real assets like gold is suggested, given the risks associated with US Treasuries and money market accounts. However, acquiring gold with potentially devalued dollars presents a challenge for Western investors.Talking Points From This EpisodeSteve discusses Bitcoin mining's rapid hardware depreciation, its impact on profitability, and sustainability concerns.Marathon and Riot's Bitcoin mining operations face significant underreported depreciation costs.Gold ETF trends: Eastern countries' surge in gold purchases versus Western net outflows.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Economics of BTC Mining?4:10 - Mining Economics & Charts13:30 - Hash Rates & New Hardware17:07 - Share Dilution Solutions19:34 - Underperformance & CAP-Ex25:30 - All-In Costs & Mining27:56 - Electricity Consumption30:40 - End to End Depreciation37:17 - Bitcoin Value & Time38:35 - Comparing Mining Industries41:37 - Gold Mining Total Costs44:08 - Bitcoin Vs. Gold48:30 - Chinese Gold ETF Flows53:10 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_gIndependent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI "Energy Returned On Invested" stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy ...
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In this engaging episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics welcomes Dave Bradley, a pioneering figure in the Bitcoin world. Known as Canada's strongest and best-looking Bitcoin entrepreneur, Dave is the founder of the first Bitcoin store, co-founder of Bull Bitcoin, and a board member of Bitcoin Well.They explore the intersection of gold and Bitcoin against the backdrop of growing awareness regarding monetary debasement and the rise of freedom movement communities.Dave emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between money and investments, considering gold as a store of value rather than money. Many investments have taken on characteristics of money due to debasement and muddling risk-adjusted returns. He shares concerns over increased risk tolerance among individuals due to rampant central bank money printing.The conversation delves into the emergence of alternative cryptocurrencies, which Dave views as companies competing with a protocol rather than contenders to Bitcoin's decentralized form of money. Despite over 10,000 altcoins, most have failed to capture significant value or market cap. Dave shares his personal journey of discovering Bitcoin in 2010 and the missed opportunities that came with it, including regretful sales in the early days.The discussion covers Bitcoin's potential as a form of money, surpassing gold in terms of divisibility, ease of verification, and digital nature that makes it more practical for transactions. Dave notes that Bitcoin has a role to play during times of censorship. In the future role Bitcoins role will likely to continue to strengthen as traditional monetary policies falter. Dave concludes by inviting listeners to attend the Bitcoin Rodeo conference for valuable insights on real-world applications of Bitcoin.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:40 - Freedom Groups & Sound Money3:34 - Money Vs. Investments5:30 - Exchange Risks & Fraud10:47 - Alt Coins & DeFi12:14 - His Bitcoin Background16:17 - Lessons Learned18:40 - The Unbalanced Portfolio21:28 - Property Rights Erosion22:42 - Bitcoin Vs. Gold29:00 - Store of Value Vs Use31:18 - A Permissionless System32:45 - Grassroots Markets34:45 - Trucker Protest & Gov't37:05 - Counterparty Risk39:58 - Excess Energy & Solutions44:19 - Bitcoin Mining Business46:30 - The Future of Bitcoin?51:25 - ETFS & Paper Promises?55:05 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeDave views gold as a store of value and Bitcoin more as decentralized money, surpassing gold's divisibility, ease, and digital nature for transactions.Bitcoin serves as backup currency during traditional monetary policy falters; government has limited control over Bitcoin wallets during events like protests.Guest links:Bitcoin Conference: https://BitcoinRodeo.comPromo: $71 Off Tickets to the Bitcoin Rodeo. Use Code: "Gold"Website: https://BitcoinBrains.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/BitcoinBrainsDave Bradley is widely known as the Strongest and Best Looking Bitcoin Entrepreneur in Canada. After getting into bitcoin in 2010, Dave founded the world's first physical bitcoin store in 2013. Dave later went on to co-found the iconic bitcoin company, Bull Bitco
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!function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/u13ry0f"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");Rumble("play", {"video":"v4rqitf","div":"rumble_v4rqitf"});In a not-to-be-missed episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest, Robert Bryce. Robert is an author, journalist, film producer, and public speaker.Together, they delve into energy issues as Bryce voices his concerns over the fragility of the electric grid and the potential consequences of underestimating the value of a reliable energy supply. He recounts personal experiences with power disruptions and highlights significant contrasts between developed countries' energy abundance and challenges faced in places like South Africa and Beirut. The discussion centers on the 2021 Texas blackout, which shed light on renewable energy's role during the crisis and its limitations when needed most. Bryce underscores the danger of making the electric grid overly reliant on non-base load power. He advocates for recognizing natural gas's crucial role in securing energy stability during inclement weather. He also criticizes initiatives like Michael Bloomberg's Beyond Carbon Campaign, as they could potentially worsen the grid's vulnerability and threaten national energy security.Robert raises concerns about inaccurate information and analysis regarding the energy landscape, specifically concerning hydrogen being misrepresented as a renewable resource by certain media outlets. He laments the negative impact of these misleading narratives on public understanding and decision-making processes. They also discuss challenges of the hydrogen fuel cycle and why it's more of a transportation carrier system than an energy source.Robert discusses how modern energy policy is regressive in nature and its outsized impact on poverty and the wealth gap. He argues that these policies, including those related to climate change and electric vehicles, increase electricity costs disproportionately for low-income and middle-class households despite Democrats' advocacy for the public's welfare. Robert believes that energy affordability should be a bipartisan concern due to its critical role in the overall economy. He also criticizes the media's portrayal of the global energy transition, pointing out that developing countries like China and India are not adhering to the same goals as the West, focusing instead on building coal power plants to meet their immediate energy needs.Robert advocates for pragmatism and a clear-eyed approach to energy production and consumption. He shares his skepticism towards renewable energy's low power density sources, such as wind and solar, and champions high power density sources like natural gas and nuclear. Robert also criticizes the corporatism surrounding renewable energy development and emphasizes the importance of understanding the realities of energy needs in light of increasing demand from developing countries.Lastly, they explore the challenges of rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) from a fossil fuel-based system. Despite promises, EVs are not yet capable of replacing oil as a critical commodity for commerce due to the enormous energy consumption in the U.S. transportation sector. The limitations and challenges of batteries, including their energy density, material intensity, and dependence on Chinese supply chains, are discussed. The Biden administration's energy policies are criticized for making the auto sector dependent on components from overseas while stifling the development of oil and coal-based power sources. Financial losses incurred by EV manufacturers like Ford and R...
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Tom welcomes back Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management to discuss the business aspects of the mining industry.
Adrian stresses the importance of understanding a company's financial situation beyond initial disappointments, using Barrick Gold as an example of a company with a history of optimistic production estimates leading to missed targets but effectively managing these issues. He emphasizes the significance of cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.
The conversation touches upon the challenges faced by mining operations, such as equipment failure, geopolitical risks, maturing mines, and hurdles common to every operation. Fortuna is used as an example of a company whose significant zinc production should be considered in evaluating its revenue distribution among different metals.
Adrian discusses the disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, attributing it to gold's strong performance amidst central banks and Chinese investors seeking safe havens and the broad stock market's strength. Despite potential risks, such as a pause or reduction in buying by central banks and a negative macroeconomic environment, Adrian highlights the opportunity presented by undervalued gold stocks.
The speaker also touches upon exploration expenditures and their importance in discovering new deposits despite the increasing difficulty of finding them. In his investment strategy, Adrian emphasizes investing in senior miners and major royalty companies during the current market cycle due to their undervalued status and likelihood to move first when the gold sector takes off.
The conversation concludes with a discussion on economic stress in financial systems caused by excessive debt accumulated during periods of ultra-low interest rates, with maturing low-interest loans causing strain for households and corporations between 2024 and 2026. Adrian emphasizes the undervaluation of gold mining companies considering gold prices and their margins.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:16 - Miners & Missed Targets6:43 - All-In-Costs Metrics9:47 - Production Misses14:39 - Risks & Juridiction18:50 - Valuing Poly Deposits20:55 - Gold Price & Miners26:17 - Closing The Gap?30:19 - Mergers & Timing Cycles33:16 - Companies & Exploration36:12 - Portfolio Strategies39:37 - Royalty & Streaming42:16 - Low Premiums on Metals46:20 - Silver & Sentiment47:47 - OTC Purchases & Reports50:28 - Consumers & Metrics53:00 - Biggest Stress Points57:30 - Long-Err-Term Bonds?1:02:48 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The financial situation of mining companies, even those with initial disappointments, should be thoroughly understood for long-term investment opportunities.
Barrick Gold serves as an example of managing production misses effectively.
Cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs are crucial for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.
Various factors that have led to a disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, presenting opportunity for undervalued gold stocks.
Guest Links:Website: https://adrianday.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global an... -
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Robert Sinn to share his background in precious metals, junior mining, and biotech investing. Robert discusses his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis through his father's experiences at coin shows and investments. The conversation later focuses on the Federal Reserve's recent announcement of tapering quantitative tightening and its potential impact on market positioning, emphasizing fiscal dominance and potential softer data suggesting a possible negative non-farm payroll print.
Sinn further explores the Fed's shift in inflation targeting, proposing that it might adopt a new, unannounced inflation target above 2%, around 3%. He explains that markets have accepted the Fed's decision not to cut rates as frequently as anticipated, but anticipate at least one more rate cut this year. Parallels are drawn between the late 1970s and the current situation regarding government spending policies and inflation trends.
The discussion then shifts towards energy investments, with Sinn emphasizing uranium and natural gas as crucial areas due to their baseload power generation capabilities and affordability. He acknowledges the transition towards cleaner energy but argues that it will take considerable time for this shift to fully materialize. Sinn holds stocks in both oil companies and renewable energy sectors, adopting a long-term perspective.
Theys explore differences in debt structures between China and the U.S., their implications on markets, and strategies for investing in gold. The conversation shifts to Japan's debt ownership versus the world owning U.S. debt. This leads to a discussion about China's debt structure, which sees the government act as the backstop for all debt within their economy.
Robert then delves into the Fed's influence on markets and its ability to impact financial conditions without changing interest rates. This interview concludes with an emphasis on gold investing, stressing the significance of global data, especially from China, when analyzing gold market trends. Various strategies are suggested for investors looking to stay in the gold market during volatile periods. Robert discusses the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and focusing on the structural bull market trends.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Background & Metals3:25 - Juniors & Biotech5:29 - Fed Reactions10:02 - Fed Inflation Targets11:36 - Market Reactions13:25 - 1970s Parallels16:55 - Energy Investments20:00 - Seasonality in Biotech21:22 - War Headlines & Gold23:12 - Gold A New Era?26:49 - A Tectonic Shift28:34 - China Vs. U.S. Debt30:43 - Fed Rate Clown Show34:18 - Trader Positioning37:39 - Bull & Staying Invested40:43 - Portfolio Structuring46:00 - Rules For Juniors49:50 - New Discoveries53:30 - Lessons & Danger Signs59:40 - Go Long Yoga Pants1:00:41 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Roberts background in precious metals and his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis.
The Fed's potential shift in inflation targeting: new unannounced target above 2%, around 3%.
Energy investments: uranium, natural gas, baseload power, affordability, and long-term perspective.
Strategies for holding on during volatile bull markets.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CEOTechnicianSubstack: https://robertsinn.substack.comCEO.CA: https://ceo.ca/@goldfingerYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV_3gUkg2hbl-Fni4XxNb_Q
Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession. -
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Don Durrett, an experienced author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss gold prices and the economic implications. Durrett believes an imminent hard economic landing will boost his bullish stance on gold. In March 2023, gold reached new highs above $2050, while silver showed significant gains. However, miners have not followed suit.Durrett considers the present economic climate different from previous periods due to the Federal Reserve's reduced ability to revive the economy. He highlights that while the US economy grew and used debt in the 1990s, it eventually balanced its budget. However, since then, the US economy has reportedly been declining for approximately 25 years, leading to significant global shifts like countries abandoning US bonds and equities and increasing interest in gold as a reserve currency.Japan's bond and currency struggles could potentially trigger a crisis due to their substantial US treasury holdings. Durrett discusses the potential impact of Asian countries purchasing gold and the importance of oil purchases in gold-importing countries like Japan and China.Don expresses bearish views on the stock market and bullish predictions for silver prices due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts like those seen with the Hunt Brothers in the past.Don shares his perspective on gold miners using the HUI index to identify buying and selling opportunities. He considers anything below $250 on the HUI cheap, with levels between $200 and $225 being the buy zone. Opportunities for cheaper stocks extend from $225 to $250. However, as the HUI approaches $300, fewer cheap stocks become available. He anticipates the gold miners' bull market hasn't started yet but expects it to resume in the next couple of months and predicts a potential dip in gold and silver prices before the significant uptrend begins. The summer may not be as uneventful this year due to potential rapid market movements once risk-on sentiment shifts to risk-off.Don has been successful with mid-tier producers some of which have seen substantial growth through acquisitions. He also discusses his investment strategy, holding stocks amidst potential economic downturns, diversification through various investments such as silver, crypto, and physical preparation by selling to the top. He also mentions the unsustainability of constant wars due to increasing budget deficits, implying that peace may prevail as America retreats from its aggressive role on the global stage.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Article & Gold ATH4:25 - Rates, Risks & Spending18:37 - Japanese Bond Markets23:40 - C.B. Gold Buying27:27 - Gold Price Predictions31:34 - Silver Expectations37:50 - Hunt Brothers 2.0?43:23 - ETF Metal Flows48:07 - Miners Bull Market?51:22 - Summer Doldrums?54:30 - Wall Street Interest?1:01:22 - Miners Risk Vs. Return1:10:00 - Stocks & Great Taking?1:15:10 - Rapid Changes Coming1:21:22 - Optimism & Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeDon Durrett believes an economic downturn will boost gold prices; gold & silver reached new highs in March 2023, but miners lagged behind.Bearish on stocks, bullish on silver due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts.America's aggressive role on the global stage unsustainable due to budget deficits, peace may prevail.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrialSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years.
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In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, economist and wealth advisor Jonathan Davis once again joins host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the theme of inflation and its implications for the current economic era. Davis argues that we have transitioned from a disinflationary era lasting over 40 years into one characterized by financial repression, which he defines as higher inflation. Tracing this shift back to the post-World War II era when debt levels were unsustainable, Davis contends that recent financial crises were not caused by COVID but rather by 'shenanigans' in financial markets. With interest rates reaching historic lows by 2020, Davis predicts that inflation for the next generation will be between 5% and 10%, and interest rates will significantly increase from past decade levels. This transition to financial repression is a response to politicians, central bankers, and bankers' desire to maintain inflation rather than risk deflation.
The conversation also touches upon China's economic shift from manufacturing to consumer industries and property development, expressing concern over the large number of unsold homes in China despite continued commodity demand. Mr. Davis discusses the historical perspective of asset classes, emphasizing substantial returns from stocks, bonds, and property over recent decades but anticipates declining value as interest rates rise. He advocates investing in commodities as a long-term strategy.
Jonathan then discusses the current state of the housing market, despite higher interest rates and the end of fixed-rate mortgages, there hasn't been a significant impact on the housing market yet due to continued employment and low mortgage rates. He also touches upon commercial real estate, suggesting businesses have been able to mitigate costs by subletting unused space and private equity firms delaying effects of the market downturn.
Jonathan shares insights on oil prices' correlation with inflation, anticipating a rebound and potentially reaching $200 within the next few years due to insufficient production relative to economic growth, causing significant drops in energy stocks. He encourages staying informed, adapting investment strategies, remaining cautious, and avoiding excessive greed.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - The End of an Era13:05 - Real Rates & Growth20:10 - De-China-Fication23:15 - Lending & Global Growth27:32 - Real Vs. Nominal Returns29:00 - Dow Long-Term Chart30:49 - 10-Year Treasury Chart36:24 - Housing Markets & Rates41:34 - Commercial Real Estate45:10 - Uranium Thoughts51:20 - Miners & Juniors55:34 - Crude Oil & Energy1:00:53 - Commodities & HODL Gold1:05:57 - Eastern Metal Buying1:08:30 - Maintaining Objectivity1:10:44 - Uranium & Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode
Davis argues for a new era of financial repression, characterized by higher inflation, due to unsustainable debt levels since the post-World War II era.
Significant price increases for uranium, gold, and silver miners, and global energy in the next one to three years due to low supply and increasing demand.
Politicians and central bankers will maintain inflation rather than risk deflation, which would benefit consumers but negatively impact the wealthy.
Guest Links:Website: https://jonathandaviswm.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/j0nathandavisTwitter: https://twitter.com/boomsbusts
Jonathan Davis BA MBA FCII FPFS, Chartered Financial Planner, is the Wealth Adviser. He is a former Chairman of the London Region of The Institute of Financial Planning (now Chartered Wealth Management Institute).
Jonathan has been delivering wealth advice since 1987. Johnathan established the Jonathan Davis Wealth Management in January 2007, where they provide a niche Wealth Management advising a small number of clients. He established this firm in January 2007.
He has over 1000 appearances in the press, radio, and TV. He is often asked to comment on financial issues. -
Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show.
Lyn discusses abundant and scarce things in investing, focusing on the era of fiscal dominance that has led to bonds becoming abundant. This is due to large budget deficits and private debt being transferred to the public sector. The implications include higher average fiscal-driven inflation and potential impact on asset prices and tax receipts.
The Federal Reserve's ability to perfectly tune the economy to avoid recession for the next decade is questioned. In emerging markets, stocks may rise in local currency but decrease in hard money terms during recessions. The U.S., however, is experiencing fiscal dominance where public debt exceeds GDP, making it harder to fight inflation and slow down borrowing. While interest rates can help make a country's currency attractive or reduce borrowing demand, raising interest rates results in ballooning expenses, offsetting disinflationary forces. The commercial real estate sector is heavily impacted, but travel companies, seniors, and wealthy individuals may benefit from higher interest rates.
Lyn discusses the SVB bank crisis in 2023, suggesting that the Fed might prioritize saving banks or the Treasury market over controlling inflation, limiting monetary policy flexibility. The potential outcomes of interest rate cuts include growth and demand for commodities but less effectiveness due to fiscal dominance. She emphasizes energy exposure as a hedge against inflationary pressures.
Investment strategies include owning assets related to dense forms of energy in the energy sector, focusing on demographics, aging workforces, and understanding China's labor supply and demand. Alternative investment portfolios like the permanent portfolio and IV portfolio deviate from the traditional 60-40 stock-bond split by including gold and commodities for diversification.
The development of Bitcoin ETFs is seen as inevitable due to its size and liquidity, but risks include hacks and confiscations. Developed countries generally accept Bitcoin as a store of value while regulating its use as a medium of exchange. The importance of building tools to make Bitcoin more efficient for users is emphasized.
Lyn's book, "Broken Money," discusses global financial system issues, with countries relying on the US dollar facing negative consequences if it devalues or if the US manipulates currencies. Running large structural trade deficits is necessary but comes with negative effects such as decreased export competitiveness and de-industrialization. The shift towards more neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin in response to unreliable US dollars is emphasized, along with considering multiple variables and being data-dependent.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Bonds, Rates, & Inflation8:42 - Fed and Recessions13:30 - Fiscal Dominance & Stability19:28 - Contrasting the 1940s23:06 - Feds Blinks at Bank Crisis25:54 - Deficits & Debt Rollover29:54 - Rate Cuts & Outcomes31:52 - Easing and Hard Assets33:14 - Energy Exposure?37:40 - Demographics & Demand41:26 - China & Manufacturing44:42 - Labor & Underinvestment47:20 - Skills & Semiconductors50:00 - Portfolio & Reallocating53:20 - Bitcoin ETFs & Impacts?56:06 - Capital Controls & Walls59:23 - Dollar & Broken Money1:03:57 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Fiscal dominance, inflation, and importance of shifting to neutral assets.
Understanding multiple forces in macroeconomics and being data-dependent.
A Shift to Neutral Assets in a World of Fiscal Dominance and Unreliable Currencies
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactWebsite: https://www.lynalden.com/
Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, "Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance." Her site provides investment research and strategy, -
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob is founder of 321gold and 321energy.com, and a former Marine Corps fighter pilot during Vietnam. Moriarty believes the year 2024 could be catastrophic due to geopolitical issues and a greater financial crisis but sees opportunities in gold and silver, which have broken out and are expected to continue for the next decade. He emphasizes sentiment and China's control of the gold market as key drivers of their prices. Moriarty discusses potential peace in the Middle East after Israel's conflict with Iran, questioning the sustainability of the US sending large aid packages due to bankruptcy.Moriarty advocates for ignoring external factors like interest rates, currencies, and politics when investing in gold and silver, using sentiment as a useful tool. He highlights China's significant impact on the gold market and the potential negative vote against US treasuries and the dollar. Moriarty expresses concerns about rising interest rates and their impact on real estate markets, especially commercial property. He also discusses the recent surge in base metals as undervalued commodities and a shift towards commodities from overvalued assets like stocks.Bob emphasizes the importance of understanding current developments in economy and society, including immigration policies, corruption, and diplomacy. He criticizes the increasing divide between ordinary people and the establishment and advocates for conversation and understanding between opposing sides. He criticizes US foreign policy in Ukraine and advocates for diplomacy to resolve conflicts. He also discusses the impact of misinformation on society and expresses skepticism towards media narratives.Talking Points From This EpisodeHe sees 2024 as a potential crisis year but believes in gold opportunities; emphasizes sentiment and China's influence.Relative calm in the Middle East is possible after the recent Israel-Iran conflict, but US aid sustainability questioned.Misinformation if not outright falsehoods in the mainstream media and the importance of diploamcy globally.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - A Catastrophic Year?2:00 - Whose Driving Metals?4:52 - Warning Signals5:43 - Oil Prices & Iran9:10 - Balance of Power13:30 - Aid to Ukraine19:37 - Measuring Sentiment21:46 - Lessons in FOMO23:24 - Eastern Gold Shift25:10 - Mortgages & Real Estate27:19 - Base Metal Indications28:37 - Government & Corruption30:57 - Reasons for Optimism32:12 - Diplomacy & Conversation37:53 - Alt Media & Opinions43:53 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, who manages investments worth $1.2 billion in gold and related assets. They discuss the ASA closed-end fund, which invests in precious metals mining, processing, or exploration companies, and is unique due to its longer-term focus compared to ETFs. Merk took over management in 2019 and transformed it into an investment vehicle for junior mining companies. This fund helps small development and exploration firms by providing capital during funding rounds and increasing their share prices, making them more attractive to larger investors.Merk also talks about the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies on gold mining and equities during economic downturns or periods of easing financial conditions. He shares his past predictions for a possible recession in 2023 but acknowledges recessions are unpredictable. Merk believes that gold miners provide value over the long term, despite risks, and stresses the importance of risk assessment.Axel discusses Saba Capital Management's ongoing attempts to gain control over ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited. If successful, this could negatively impact the mining industry due to potential cost-cutting measures or changes to the fund's mandate. Despite expressing support for ASA as a fund manager, Axel encourages constructive dialogue between all parties. Axel highlights ASA's unique features that make it difficult for activists like Saba to achieve their goals easily. The future implications include continued engagement with Saba or potential liquidation if they gain control, and the importance of shareholder votes in the outcome. Investors are encouraged to stay informed and vote in proxy contests.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - ASA Closed End Fund3:42 - Funding for Juniors10:43 - The Monetary Environment15:26 - Fed & Distorted Data17:57 - Recent Moves in Gold20:50 - Closed Vs. Open Funds25:08 - Strategic Investments26:42 - ASA Board Concerns32:16 - SABA Contested Proxy35:10 - A Call to Shareholders37:30 - Friday Apr 26 Vote41:06 - Future for the Fund?44:33 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxelMerkWebsite: https://www.merkinvestments.com/Blog Post: https://www.merkinvestments.com/insights-and-reports/2024-03-18Website: https://asaltd.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/axelmerk/detail/recent-activity/Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/4ebpcaewAxel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds.Founder of the firm bearing his name, Merk is an expert on macro trends. He is a sought-after speaker, contributor, and author; Axel Merk's book, Sustainable Wealth, describes how the greater economic universe works, how it might affect your finances, and how to manage those finances to seek financial stability. Axel Merk holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and an M.Sc. in Computer Science from Brown University.Axel Merk founded Merk Investments in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to California. He has grown Merk Investments into an investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.Axel lives in the San Francisco Bay Area with his wife and their four children. Furthermore, he is a marathon runner and a private pilot.
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Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron to discuss the markets and current geopolitical instability. Although gold prices saw a spike due to recent events between Iran and Israel, they gave back most of the gains shortly after. Christopher emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and long-term trends when analyzing gold price movements.Chris discusses how the Dow Jones and gold have been trading in lockstep due to the preoccupation with Fed policy. They note that during past bull markets, average investors shifted funds from stock indexes into gold or silver when they underperformed. However, the current cycle shows a flat Dow to gold ratio for the last eight years, suggesting mainstream investors are yet to enter the precious metals sector. The potential implications of this situation and its impact on future market performance are emphasized.Despite gold ETFs losing gold holdings as mainstream investors sell their shares even during price surges, they predict gold should come back to retest its recent highs before experiencing a multi-year trend of significant new highs. Christopher shares his insights from the 2008 financial crisis and how he now prioritizes price data over fundamental analysis. They also touch upon historical gold price trends, including how gold always retests breakout points after significant price increases.Christopher discusses the potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to shift from its hawkish stance being a global or regional war. He suggests that higher interest rates may lead to higher commodity prices and emphasizes the need for markets to reconsider their current beliefs. The conversation then shifts to silver, which has broken its downward trend but faces significant resistance at $30 per ounce. Christopher is skeptical about silver's potential return as a full-time monetary metal in perpetuity but acknowledges the possibility during periods of financial instability.Chris emphasizes the importance of being aware and prepared amidst current turbulent times while also encouraging listeners not to stop living their lives.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Geopolitical Tensions4:37 - Sentiment & ATH Gold9:15 - Dow Vs. Gold12:00 - Dow Gold Ratio15:52 - Opportunity?18:20 - Breakouts & Retests23:14 - Fundamentals & China27:00 - Catalysts & Israel32:50 - Inflation Narratives38:30 - Fed Shift?40:33 - Silver & Resistance44:45 - Monetary Silver?45:54 - Miners & Resources51:16 - Jurisdictional Risks55:57 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeImportance of historical data for analyzing gold price movements amid current geopolitical instability; Gold ETFs losing holdings despite recent surgesMarkets ignoring fundamental supply and demand in favor of Fed policy and the potential return of mainstream investors to precious metals sector.Predicting gold retesting highs before significant new price trends.Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGoldWebsite: https://igoldadvisor.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9QChristopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business,
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back John Rubino, a former Wall Street financial analyst and author, to discuss the current bull market in gold. Rubino asserts that gold's intrinsic value is significantly higher than its present price, which could reach $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis. He also posits that a potential collapse of the financial system due to debt could lead to a return to a gold-backed currency or a currency reset.
They explore the implications of inflation and currency devaluation on various assets including stocks, real estate, bonds, and gold. John argues that adjusting investment numbers for inflation offers a different perspective on asset value over time. He warns about potential risks in the financial system, such as a commercial real estate crash or an equities bear market. He also discusses the deficit in the silver market, which could result in significant price spikes and potential defaults on futures contracts.
Despite uncertainty, John suggests investment strategies for investing in real assets like gold and silver. Investors should consider gold as a long-term investment and focus on positive goals during uncertain times to build capital for future challenges. Gold is currently seen as a store of value, but demand for it is minimal but starting to rise. Once gold breaks through resistance and support levels, it could lead to a significant run in the market.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Gold Market Developments4:10 - Gold Backing & Debt8:15 - Who Will Buy US Bonds?12:45 - Inflation Outlook17:28 - Asset Valuations22 :38 - Gold Drivers & Geopolitics27:26 - Next Financial Crisis?33:10 - Silver & Supply Issues38:10 - Silver Industrial Demand42:38 - Investment Demand & FOMO47:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold's potential value increase, reaching $5,000-$10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis.
Risks of financial panic, potential scenarios like commercial real estate crash or equities bear market.
Investment strategies proposed to protect against times of crises.
Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.comBooks: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v
John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack. -
Tom welcomes back Ravi Sood to the show to discuss the many changes in the economy and mining industry. Ravi touches upon various topics related to the global financial system, gold prices, and the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. He discusses the lack of significant changes in the financial system since the 1970s and the potential role of Bitcoin in challenging traditional monetary systems. He also highlights the uncertainty and potential risks in the current economic situation due to the pandemic and other factors. The conversation also delves into the importance of investing in physical commodities like gold and other minerals, as well as the role of technology in driving demand for these resources.
Furthermore, they explore the effects of a strong US dollar on the economy and suggests alternative policies to improve trade balance. The discussion also covers the challenges in regulating cryptocurrencies and the potential impact of CBDCs. The gold market is analyzed, with the author noting signs of optimism amidst a perceived bubble, and the mining industry's financial issues are also discussed, along with the interest in renewable energy transition and the cyclical nature of commodities business.
Throughout the interview, Ravi emphasizes the need for a better understanding of the financial system and the importance of making informed decisions based on current economic conditions and potential future changes.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction3:30 - Gold, Bias & Sound Money10:17 - Global Can Kicking17:42 - A No Win Scenario?20:00 - US Commodity Demand22:28 - Feds Levers & Control Risk26:44 - Bitcoin, Banks, & ETFs33:50 - Commercial Banks & Economy36:05 - Unhedged Mining44:52 - Gold Highs & Reality49:05 - Mining Industry Health56:17 - Energy & GDP Correlation59:00 - 3 Phases of New Energy1:02:20 - Green Energy Storage1:05:04 - Commodities & Capital1:07:18 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The financial system has not seen a major shift since the 1970s, with concerns about sustainability of the existing monetary systems.
Physical commodities like gold and other minerals could help the United States address economic challenges by creating jobs and reducing reliance on foreign currency.
The gold market exhibits signs of optimism for an eventual end to its current bubble, with factors such as increased production and lower interest rates affecting its future.
Guest Links:Website: https://golcondagold.comWebsite: https://evrec.energy
Ravi Sood is Chairman of Golconda Gold and an experienced financier focused on emerging markets. Mr. Sood was the founder and former CEO of Navina Asset Management, a Toronto-based investment firm that was acquired by a major financial institution. Mr. Sood also serves as a director of several companies including Blockchain Power Trust, Feronia Inc., and Eve & Co. Previously Mr. Sood was a director of ICC Labs (acquired) and Elgin Mining (acquired).
Ravi Sood has a bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Waterloo. -
This is a rebroadcast of our April 10 Twitter Spaces focusing on the recent metal moves, the metals industry, and overall investor sentiment. Bob Coleman and Vince Lanci discuss the effects of big players in the markets and how investor sentiment remains cautious. Jim discusses why margin requirements have to be adjusted during periods of volatility. Vince and Bob discusses at length the various big players in the market and how they influence it along with their general strategies. Lastly, Bob discusses the role of ETF's and the current premiums on physical metals.
Note: Unfortunately, the last hour of this spaces was not recorded properly.
Bob Coleman - Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Vince LanciSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com -
Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. They discuss various economic and geopolitical issues shaping the global landscape. Topics range from potential conflicts and their impact on markets to the shift towards physical assets and a gold-backed monetary system. Simon touches upon underreported inflation, economic instability in America, China's role in reshaping the global economy, potential crisis scenarios, and the importance of diplomacy versus war.
Simon is concerned about the risk of conflicts escalating, with Russia as a key player, and the emergence of gold-backed currencies to counteract perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies. Additionally, they discuss the significance of rising interest rates, potential crises, and implications for U.S. elections and global geopolitical outcomes. Throughout, Simon encourages caution and emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic trends and geopolitical dynamics.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - The World & War5:38 - Equity Complacency7:02 - Russia & Syria9:17 - Economic Catalysts14:32 - Serious Correction18:18 - Leveraged Bank System19:24 - Capital Shifts & China22:57 - Gold Backed Currency29:26 - Dollar & Rates30:53 - Chinese Demographics33:50 - China's Manufacturing37:40 - Nuclear Energy39:31 - China Debt42:32 - Chasing Rainbows44:30 - Europe In Recession48:15 - Inflation Issues52:25 - Expect More Unknowns53:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Geopolitical tensions could lead to significant market shocks in equity and base metal markets before mid-year due to underreported inflation and weak economic activity.
Shift towards gold-backed currencies is inevitable as countries seek alternatives to perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies, with China and Russia likely taking a leading role.
Diplomacy could prevent war, but tensions between the US and countries like Russia suggest that war may be an outcome if Washington continues to support the dollar at the expense of its treasury market.
Guest Links:Email: [email protected]: https://simon-hunt.com/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.
Simon is the author of the "Frontline China Report Service," which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China's economy, politics, and financial outlook.
Simon established this company in January 1996. -
Tom welcomes back Tony Greer from the Morning Navigator to delve into the various market trends and investment strategies. Greer, who is bullish on gold, S&P, industrial miners, and uranium, while bearish on bonds, shares his perspective on the current economic climate. He references the volatile year of 1994, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation, and believes that if similar circumstances arise again, the Fed will respond with rate cuts, leading to a bullish stock market environment. The commodity sector, particularly natural resources and housing, has seen a significant shift from tech markets, which remain mixed or flat. Greer attributes this trend to potential geopolitical tensions and increasing ISM manufacturing figures, possibly pointing towards the early stages of a World War III scenario.
Greer discusses his bullish stance on gold due to central bank buying and physical demand. While some may view the recent gold rally as a head fake, he remains committed to the precious metal. He believes that declining total gold ETF holdings could indicate less speculation and increased interest in physical gold ownership. The speakers also touch upon the potential implications of increasing national debt on the US dollar and the possibility that fiat currencies, including the US dollar, will decline against gold. They ponder if the current trends in oil, copper, and other commodities represent a cyclical shift from underinvestment to materials necessary for economic growth.
Throughout their discussion, they emphasize the importance of staying informed about market changes and adjusting investment strategies accordingly. Greer suggests repositioning portfolios towards natural resources and industrial sectors, despite slower growth compared to tech stocks, as these markets may have more significant impacts with smaller amounts of capital. The conversation highlights potential long-term consequences of current economic trends, including national debt levels and the role of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Bullish Stocks & Gold9:23 - Fed Games & Inflation15:12 - Gold Rally & Disorder17:15 - Gold Vs. Silver18:12 - Metals & Frustration20:30 - Capital Rotation23:17 - Gold ETF Declines24:42 - Metal Investing26:20 - The WHO Quagmire28:44 - Confidence in Media30:18 - Exponential Debt31:49 - Oil & Copper Cycles33:52 - Peak Frustration36:40 - Uranium Fundamentals39:13 - Time to Pay Attention42:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Tony is bullish on both gold, miners and the S&P 500.
Declining Gold ETF Holdings could signal a shift from paper to physical.
Tony discusses the importance of paying careful attention to your portfolio this year.
Guest Links:Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacroWebsite: https://tgmacro.com/E-Mail: [email protected]
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. -
Tom welcomes back David Brady to discuss future market movements based on Fed decisions and current geopolitics. David suggests that investors should invest in physical silver and gold as a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and cyber attacks. He believes that the pullback from recent highs will be shallow but may require a big event to drive it. David mentions that some people are suggesting $100 silver is a slam dunk and that high beta miners are going to go through the stratosphere. David emphasizes that investing in these assets can be expensive, so people should pick an amount they feel comfortable with and buy as much as possible.
This episode also highlights the current equity market trends and how gold and silver are performing. David explains that the recent increase in the price of gold and silver is not due to a specific event but rather a collective reaction to the loss of confidence in the economy. He suggests that the price of gold and silver may continue to rise, as more people seek safety in these assets during times of uncertainty.
The interview also touches on the potential impact of the 2020 US presidential election on the value of gold and silver. David believes that the current economic and political environment may lead to a stock market crash and a subsequent decline in the value of assets like gold and silver, which would benefit their investors. However, he also mentions other potential risks facing the economy, such as the banking system, wars, and the loss of confidence in government institutions.
David believes that investors have good reason to be bullish on the current precious metal market conditions and expects continued growth in the coming years. However, he also acknowledges the potential risks facing the economy and the political landscape, which could lead to a significant decline in the broader equity markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Gold Train All Aboard?5:06 - Rate Cuts & Dollar10:19 - Demand & Confidence12:40 - COT Data & Metrics19:22 - Stock Market Thoughts24:12 - Silver Vs. Gold?29:12 - Portfolio Positioning34:48 - Valuations & Silver39:42 - Confiscation & The East43:00 - Housing & Employment45:10 - Gloom, Doom, & Popcorn50:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The recent increase in gold and silver prices is likely driven by a collective reaction to economic uncertainty, not a specific event.
Investing in physical silver and gold can provide a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and other black swan events.
A pullback from recent highs may be shallow but requires a big event to drive it.
Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/Fund Website: https://4779Capital.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids. -
Tom welcomes back Adam Hamilton, founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service and is a market speculator.
According to Hamilton, the recent rally in gold prices is primarily driven by fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment, with seasonality playing a small role. He noted that gold stocks are undervalued compared to gold prices, presenting a significant opportunity for investors.
Hamilton pointed out that physical demand, such as Indian weddings and Chinese New Year, contributes to the underlying strength of the gold market. However, he emphasized that sentiment and herd mentality are crucial factors in the current rally, particularly during the spring season when optimism and exuberance tend to increase.
Adam also discussed the Commitments of Traders Report (COT) and how it can be used to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trends in gold futures markets. He tracks changes in speculators' long and short positions over time to identify periods of buying or selling that may indicate a change in market sentiment or trend.
Hamilton also highlighted the importance of tracking gold ETF holdings as an indicator of investment demand for gold. However, he noted that it is essential to distinguish between physical demand and ETF demand when analyzing the gold market. He suggested breaking down western physical demand into categories such as bars and coins and foreign demand from regions such as Europe and Asia.
Hamilton believes that there is still significant potential for investment demand to drive up the price of gold, with speculators having only completed 55% of their total potential buying since the uptrend began in early October. He also pointed out that retail investors will drive the surge in demand for physical gold, leading to reports of shortages and pushing up the physical price.
Adam is interested in the potential of physically-backed digital gold currencies, especially among younger generations who are attracted to digital assets. He believes there will be high demand for a Bitcoin-like tradable vehicle backed by physical gold, making it easier for people to own and transact with gold.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Recent Gold Moves2:36 - Seasonality & Asia4:30 - Miner Performance5:45 - Seasons & Sentiment7:46 - Investor Shift?9:48 - Supply & Demand11:53 - 2020 Vs. 202413:33 - Driving Factors15:43 - Gold Indicators18:20 - Types of Gold Demand21:00 - West Retail Buying?23:38 - Mining Sectors24:58 - Fundamentals & FOMO28:26 - Money Supply/Inflation32:06 - Hedonic Adjustments32:47 - Compelling Thoughts?35:32 - ETFs & Physical Gold37:38 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold prices rally due to fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and seasonality.
Undervalued gold stocks present a significant opportunity for investors.
Physically-backed digital gold currencies could attract younger generations.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.zealllc.com/Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htm
Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on task like most other professions.
After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting, and entrepreneurship. Adam went on to be a Big Six CPA and consultant after graduation, never stopping learning.
By early 2000, Adam finally had enough experience and capital to found Zeal at 25 years old. Rather than hide his research and trading work in a hedge fund, Adam wanted to help others thrive in the markets. So he started sharing his now-world-famous market research work through very-affordable newsletters.
Customers raved, -
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, to the show. Keith is the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals.
Keith discusses his 2024 gold outlook report which focuses on cause and effect in markets and economy, analyzing the impact of rising interest rates on GDP components like consumption and wages. Higher interest rates reduce the burden of paying wages but also decrease credit availability, affecting businesses' ability to operate. Consumers may sell assets as wages and other expenses tighten up.
Keith discusses the use of lagging indicators like employment and yield curve inversion to predict economic trends. Employment is said to be a lagging indicator because it reacts to changes in the economy with a delay, and its predictive value is reduced due to the Feds influence on employers. Yield curve inversion, where long-term interest rates are lower than short-term ones, has historically signaled an upcoming recession. However, Keith argues that this indicator should be interpreted carefully because the Fed only controls short-term rates, and a yield curve un-inversion may actually signal the Fed's reaction to a credit crisis rather than its cause.
The low interest rate environment of the past 40 years has driven businesses to take on more risk and leverage to achieve returns. This has resulted in the creation of "zombie companies" that have profits less than their interest expense and cannot survive without artificially low interest rates. A recent study found that 20% of corporate debt was zombie debt before interest rates started to rise. The impact of hiking interest rates on these companies is uncertain, but it has not yet resulted in widespread issues.
It seems that the current economic situation, with high inflation and rising interest rates, is leading to a process of supply destruction in many industries. This means that in order for companies to maintain or increase their return on capital, they will need to destroy a significant amount of supply, which will likely result in job losses, bankruptcies, and a lot of pain for entrepreneurs and investors. The market will only reward the best and luckiest actors in this situation, as those who got loans earlier or have lower cost structures may be better positioned to survive. This process is not necessarily merit-based, but rather determined by timing and luck.
Keith, who predicted a $2300 gold price for this year, notes we are close to reaching it. This rise is due to physical demand in the East and not speculation as seen before. Gold may drop less during a crisis compared to other assets and could make new highs soon after. There's less leverage in the gold market now, leading to less price drop during liquidation and potentially higher prices post-crisis. The LIBOR rate, previously an indicator of unsecured credit rates between banks, is no longer quoted and has been replaced by the SOFR rate, which reflects policy as it is a secured overnight funding rate using Treasury bonds as collateral. Gold's future price should be higher than spot due to carry costs, primarily interest rates. The calculated fundamental price attempts to determine the price of gold if speculators did not influence the market. Dubai sees high demand for physical gold, with an estimated 500-700 tons a year being unofficially exported through retail purchases by tourists.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Spending & Wages5:07 - Consumer Squeeze7:36 - Lagging Indicators10:48 - Yield Curve Inversion14:40 - Returns, Risks, & Zombies22:02 - GDP & Gov't Spending23:23 - Credit Tightness24:37 - Supply/Demand Issues29:12 - Fed & Capital Costs37:07 - 2024 Gold Performance41:28 - Next Crisis & Fed Cuts43:54 - SOFOR & LIBOR48:12 - Jewelry Trade & Dubai50:47 - Wrap Up & Gold Report
Talking Points From This Episode
The impact of rising interest rates on GDP components and their role in creating "zombie companies." - Visa fler
