Avsnitt
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We bring you a special edition podcast from the Greek island of Zakinthos to discuss the current US administration’s review of AUKUS. It’s rather ominously worded to see if it fits President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda. Why do we always need to find out about these things from the Americans? Why can’t our own Defence Minister Richard Marles ever come clean about things such as how much we are giving to the US, and why they want us to lift Defence expenditure to 3.5% of GDP? As for the review itself, why would the US want to end the deal when there are still billions more dollars to be extracted from Australian taxpayers and gullible politicians?
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After the previous podcast, many people might have been hoping for a description of the TKMS bid for SEA 3000. Sorry to disappoint, but the rules imposed by Defence block that, and we have figured out who is to blame. It's the probity lawyers - what a surprise.
The media visit to Germany focused entirely on the parent yard build of the first three ships, and there is no doubt that TKMS and partner companies will be able to do that without working up a sweat. Then, some personal thoughts on strategic partnerships. Many people believe the relationship with Japan is so important that the Mogami should be automatically selected. But does it make sense to base partnerships on the purchase of equipment? Wouldn't it be better for that to be the domain of treaties and security guarantees? And shouldn't buying stuff work both ways if it's so important? Also, Ukraine is using drones to revolutionise warfare. We told you so.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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Greetings from the northern German city of Hamburg and the beginning of a Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems media tour. They are one of two finalists for SEA 3000, the general purpose frigate project, but they are forbidden by Defence from discussing their proposal. This ridiculous level of secrecy seems to be in place purely to conceal Departmental incompetence and to cover up the growing possibility that no frigates will be built in Australia, ever.
Some words about US demands that Australia increase Defence spending to as much as 5% of GDP and what looks like a major difference of opinion between the PM and Defence Minister as to whether or not we give in to that pressure.
Then some details of an article in June APDR that AUKUS Pillar One has very little chance of success written by Dr Hans Ohff, Managing Director of the Australian Submarine Corporation during the critical years of the Collins program. Unlike politicians and bureaucrats he actually knows how difficult it is to successfully deliver submarines - and Australia is falling well short.
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With Canberra starting to return to normal we have a bit more to discuss on the domestic front. Firstly a thank you to Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, who agreed to an interview that will be published in full in June APDR. It was a wide ranging chat and we will continue to have different views on matters such as the Defence budget and also secrecy - but it's good to be in dialogue. Also during the week, a senior TKMS delegation was in town to discuss SEA 3000 and they are promoting the MEKO 200 as a low risk solution for Australia. On the international scene, tariff stupidity continues with Donald Trump threatening Europe with 50% on June 1 and the US company Apple with 25% if they continue making iPhones offshore. If Australian politicians want to get into the game of appeasing Trump, maybe we should offer to build a mega yacht for him.
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We start with a clarification from the previous episode that Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy has retained responsibility for capability delivery, even though those words have been removed from his title.
And then a lot more about the unreliability of the US as an ally - a reality so obvious that everyone can see it, except for Australian politicians. The update of the list now includes the US coming to some sort of deal with the Houthis - ignoring everyone else - as well as having direct talks with Hamas and Iran.
Israel wasn't even included on Trump's itinerary for his Middle East trip, possibly because they don't have any gold and marble palaces stuffed full of grovelling courtiers.
Then let's at least have a laugh about Qatar's bribe of a luxury 747. No one in their right mind would accept it on cost grounds alone. Let's see what happens when the US demands Australia increase Defence spending to 3% of GDP.
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We have a new Federal government ministry - and it's very much like the old one.
Richard Marles retains Defence and Pat Conroy Defence Industry, though with the 'capability delivery" element seemingly removed. This was preceded by Richard Marles using his factional muscle to get rid of two highly competent Ministers in the form of Mark Dreyfus and Ed Husic.
Let's backtrack a bit and review the only national security topic in the entire election campaign - whether Russia had requested a permanent military base on Indonesian soil. This cannot be ruled out because of the often opaque nature of Indonesian politics.
Then President Trump's failed trade war against China - though people shouldn't be celebrating just yet. Another feature of the new US administration is that it's making it clear it's available to the highest bidder.
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The election result is a surprisingly strong win for Labor, but it's important to understand the basis for that.
Yes, the Coalition ran a poor campaign and the ALP a good one - but the real reason for a reversal in poll numbers during the last 4 months is because of the Trump Effect, similar to what has occurred in Canada.
It's important not to lose sight of the big picture - Trump's tariff war risks destroying the global economy and Australia will not be insulated from the consequences. Let's go down memory lane with what happened in this region last time the US did this in 1930 with the Smoot Hawley tariffs.
Most people know what happened in Europe with the rise of the Nazis in Germany. Less well known is the effect on Japan, which was also devastated by the tariffs and used their colony of Korea to seize all of Manchuria in 1931, the precursor to the full blown invasion of China 6 years later.
The new Australian government should be doing its best to deter the actions of the Trump administration not aid and abet them.
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This Federal election 2025 special podcast starts with the shocking news that the government is offering nothing new on the Defence and national security front - and the opposition isn't much better. For Australians interested in topics other than the most dull, mundane, routine "news" they will have to go elsewhere than the election campaign and the woeful performance of much of the media. The US is radically transforming in front of our eyes, realigning with Russia and other authoritarian regimes. President Donald Trump's trade war is in the process of wrecking the US economy - and unless he changes direction, within a few weeks 500,000 jobs will be lost in California alone. This is a rapidly sinking ship - but you won't hear a word of that from the major Australian political parties.
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Economic turmoil continues in the US with almost daily shifts in the tariff war being conducted against everyone except Russia.
The self-destructive economic behaviour of the Trump administration is likely to drive countries in our region much closer to China - something that will have major implications for Australian security. Not that you will hear a word about that from any of our head in the sand politicians.
Then some words about the movie The Downfall and the ability of some politicians to live in a fantasy world, ignoring all of the evidence in front of them.
The Australian people are being told two big lies: that the US relationship is as rock solid as ever and that massive increases to our Defence budget are underway.
Neither is true.
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We record this episode with a sense of impending doom now that we know what Trump administration Liberation Day looks like – and it’s bad.
The US is voluntarily withdrawing from world leadership, and it would not be a surprise if NATO, the IMF and the WTO are next. Not that you will hear a peep from our politicians or most of the media, who simply cannot imagine anything other than a comfortable world led by Washington. If anything, our national security apparatus is even worse, saying we should not offer moral support to Canada or Denmark – or anyone else – because “it’s got nothing to do with us”.
What an utterly disgraceful attitude – and it explains the poor quality of so much recent decision making.
Then some powerful words from Canadian Prime Minister Steven Carney warning that the world has changed forever. If only our politicians could show a similar level of leadership.
It’s time to start diversifying sources of military supply right now – more local production and strengthen relationships not only with Europe but also South Korea, Japan and Singapore.
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We start with some words about the Avalon air show last week. The mood among Australian companies was a bit subdued because Defence expenditure is drying up – but top marks to the RAAF for engaging with the media and doing their best to be open and frank. On that note, an apology to AVM Nick Hogan for how some sections of the press (not us) misinterpreted his comments about F-35s. There is a lot of official support for Boeing Australia’s MQ-28A Ghost Bat uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft and hopefully it will be in series production next year. Then there was a very important AUKUS seminar on March 31 organised by Malcolm Turnbull – and the overwhelming consensus of participants is that Australia will not receive nuclear powered submarines from the US or the UK. To make the situation worse, there is no plan B. We say: invest in underwater drones – an area where Australia has a lot of capability. Finally on US threats to take over Greenland by force. The last time we checked, Denmark – which is responsible for Greenland - is part of NATO and therefore the island is already well protected by the alliance, of which the US is an important part (for the moment). The only person currently threatening Greenland is President Donald Trump.
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The unreliability of the US as an ally continues to be demonstrated with President Donald Trump publicly reinforcing his wish to turn Canada into the 51st State - but you won't hear that from any Australian politicians because they are too weak to speak out in defence of a Five Eyes ally. We quote at length from Singapore's Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen, who says the US is no longer a reliable ally but instead is behaving like a "rent seeker." He warns that a political earthquake has happened and that a tsunami is coming, and we must be prepared. This message has been heard in Europe and throughout the Indo-Pacific, just not by Australia. Some words about Canada purchasing Australia's JORN system - possibly as part of a move to decouple from the US. Regarding AUKUS Pillar one, we have some new jargon from Defence Minister Richard Marles: it's apparently a "treaty level agreement" - except there's no such thing. Either you have a treaty, or you do not. Clearly, there is no AUKUS treaty - just empty words and promises from an ally who demonstrably can no longer be trusted.
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The shock waves from the US betrayal of Ukraine and their threats against Canada and Denmark are being felt all around the world, except in Australia where politicians and the media have their heads firmly in the sand. A notable exception was former PM Malcolm Turnbull who has tried to alert people to the danger, but instead has only been asked about the complete irrelevance of his negative comments about Donald Trump and how they might have impacted exemptions from tariffs. Our current PM and Defence Minister can only keep repeating nonsense that the US alliance is safe because there was bipartisan support in Congress for AUKUS legislation. Well, APDR has read the legislation and all that it does is set up the bank account for Australian cash to be deposited - for the US Secretary of Defence to spend on whatever he damn well pleases. When it comes to making ourselves less dependent on the US, we should immediately take up an offer from South Korea to jointly develop a next generation Army C2 system. Why aren't Defence officials on their way to Seoul right now? Finally, it looks like the Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) program is another disaster - and the consequence is that in the 2030s Australia will have no submarines at all.
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Due to the complete betrayal of Ukraine by the US, the security situation for the western world – including Australia – is worsening.
However, you wouldn’t know that here with complete political and media indifference with people preferring to focus on the weather situation in Queensland.
This is appalling parochialism and is ignoring the reality that the cherished “special relationship” with Washington is over. It’s finished. The US is no longer a reliable ally because the President is acting as if he is a Russian asset.
What we are witnessing is a modern-day version of the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, which divided Eastern Europe up between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union – except this time it’s Russia and the US deciding the future of Ukraine and other countries.
It’s disgusting – and now Canada is also receiving treatment from the US that their Prime Minister believes is part of an attempt to turn it into the 51st US state.
This isn’t a joke, and Australians need to wake up.
Our government needs to overcome its terror of upsetting the US and show some backbone on behalf of our friends and allies. We have leverage and should not be afraid to use it.
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If any further proof of the unreliability of the US was needed, it was amply demonstrated last Friday when US President Donald Trump tried to publicly humiliate his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymir Zelenskyy at a White House meeting. It was an appalling performance by the US President – and Australia has to get the message that potentially we are on our own. But have we heard that from the government? Of course not. They are still too frightened of offending Trump that all they can talk about is continuing the support for Ukraine. Since that has come up, let’s look at the facts, which show that despite having the world’s 10th or 11th largest economy we are a pathetic 33 on the list of international donors. So how about the Prime Minister stop beating his chest and actually increase the level of support to something more meaningful. If people are agitated about Chinese warships conducting live fire drills in this area just imagine when the Russian Pacific Fleet starts doing the same thing, with the USN nowhere in sight.
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What a week! Two major events have overturned Australia’s security outlook dramatically for the worse. The first is the US throwing Ukraine under the bus and siding with Russia. What has been done to Ukraine is an absolute disgrace and it can be done to Australia – and don’t think for a moment it couldn’t happen. The attempt to extort 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals for equipment already supplied is outrageous. But our political leaders are completely mute about US conduct, so terrified of uttering a single word that might upset the Trump administration. It is moral cowardice at its worst. We are on our own – and the UK has pulled the plug on AUKUS. To add to that we have had Chinese warships operating in the Tasman Sea as a blatant show of force. It was inevitable that this would happen at some point. Australian Defence planners need to stop obsessing with the South China Sea and worry about places much closer to home.
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The instability and unpredictability of the Trump administration continues – and that should have alarm bells ringing for Australian Defence planners. The US is no longer a reliable ally as is being demonstrated by threats to take Greenland from NATO member Denmark and the unnecessary imposition of tariffs on friendly nations such as Australia. It looks like Ukraine will be thrown under a bus, which should alarm all Australians in case China’s President Xi thinks he can get away with invading Taiwan. A bit more about the completely corrosive nature of Defence secrecy and the alarming evidence that the Chief of Army can be overruled by a 20-something staffer in a Ministerial office. Finally, some thoughts on technologies – and we should be investing heavily in home-grown drones. We don’t need to import a single one – there’s plenty of talent here.
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We start with some thoughts about the big international story of the moment, the idea from US President Donald Trump that all Palestinians be removed from Gaza so that it can be redeveloped as a luxury waterfront enclave. This does not seem a particularly good idea as President Trump has not yet explained where the 2 million Palestinians will go, or who will pay for the redevelopment. All that the mealy-mouthed Australian government will say is that it remains in favour of a Two State solution, a line echoed by the Opposition. This seems to overlook the fact that one of those states – Israel – is no longer interested in that approach and as well as having Palestinians kicked out of Gaza would like them kicked out of the West Bank as well. Australia has just handed over $800 million as a gift to very profitable US submarine manufacturers with another $4.2 billion to follow – and the media thinks it’s a wonderful idea. Some more words about the visit to HQ Joint Operations Command and the very valuable work being done there coordinating ADF operations both in Australia and internationally. Finally, the SEA 3000 secrecy stupidity shows no signs of abating.
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We discuss several recent momentous events, including the inauguration of President Donald Trump. This has been followed immediately by various disruptions, such as the US slapping 25% tariffs on allies Canada and Mexico, with only 10% levied on the enemy China, which seems an odd way of going about things. Trump has also threatened to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal and turn Canada into the 51st state. These challenges to the international order have received widespread condemnation – but not from Australia because our politicians are too scared to say anything that might upset the Americans. And the government wonders why its popularity is sinking. The secrecy around SEA 3000 continues, with a team of probity staff scrutinising the media like Victorian era sensors trying to find references to breasts and buttocks – and this ridiculous exercise by Defence is costing we taxpayers millions of dollars per year in stupidity. Finally good news – a media visit to HQ Joint Operations Command, with more about this in the next podcast.
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In this episode we have a look at some more details of the upgraded Mogami frigate and shed more light on how screwed up the process is for SEA 3000. It is shrouded in secrecy because Defence and the government don’t want you to know how little analysis has been done for a strategically vital multi billion dollar procurement. Why does the first ship have to be in the water in 2029? Why not 2028 – or 2030? Then Defence and the highly paid surface fleet review team don’t understand that the only ship Japan can sell to Australia is the upgraded Mogami FFM – not the one currently in service – because you can’t offer something no longer in production. If Japan can offer a variant of the Mogami, can Germany offer a larger variant of the MEKO 200 called the A210? If they can’t then prime contractor tkMS should quit the competition now and save themselves millions of Euro. We look at President-elect Donald Trump’s territorial ambitions and pose the question: if he asks for Australian military assistance for the invasions of Greenland, Canada and Panama will we give it? Presumably the answer from the Defence establishment will be in the affirmative, so completely dazzled as they are by AUKUS.
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- Visa fler
