Avsnitt
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First we noticed a small piece of good news that a Wollongong-based steel manufacturer has landed a contract with a US submarine builder, but it’s likely to be very small. Which prompts the question: where is the $30 billion going that Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy says will be spent in Australia for AUKUS Pillar 1 – and it doesn’t take much to figure out that at least the first $10 billion is going on digging ditches and filling them with concrete. Not a lot of value adding there. The Defence budget, when used properly, can be a powerful tool for investing directly in the Australian economy. Very few governments understand that – and the current one appears clueless. Next – the looming disaster of the General Purpose Frigate. This is already a mess because not only is the media being kept in the dark but far more seriously the companies themselves have been forbidden from any contact with Australian industry. Let’s have a quick recap of how Australia successfully managed naval shipbuilding in the mid 1990s. Finally – an alternate future: the RAN could have started taking delivery in 2026 of the first of a class of powerful, missile firing corvettes. Instead we get nothing.
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This episode is recorded in Seoul, the capital of South Korea. It’s a good opportunity to talk submarines and surface ships because of what is happening here. The occasion was an invitation to attend a signing ceremony for the contractual handover of the ROKS Shin Chae-ho an SSK of about the same displacement as the Collins class. However, this submarine is far more modern, with a Vertical Launch System and Air independent Propulsion, meaning it can stay fully submerged and completely silent for up to three weeks. This SSK is the 21st in a series of 27 South Korean conventional attack submarines. Then we toured the mighty ROKS Jeongjo the Great – the most recent KDX Aegis destroyer that weighs 11,000 tonnes and has 128 VLS cells. Construction time – 9 months. That’s not a misprint. Then finally we chat about the Australian General Purpose Frigates and the possibility that two Korean companies will bid. Defence has outrageously gagged all of the bidders from saying a single word to the Australian media about any aspect of the program, which is unacceptable in a democracy.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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This episode focuses entirely on AUKUS, which is totally dominating the national security debate at the moment – and that’s not necessarily a good thing with everything else being ignored. First we had the news from the US that they will only build a single Virginia class submarine in 2025, which looks like a deceleration in their effort to reach a rate of 2.33 per year needed to have excess platforms to then sell to Australia. But for our government, it’s business as usual with the line that they are very confident that everything is going to plan. What is that confidence based on? One suspects nothing more than being patted on the head by senior US figures and being told, trust us – and thank you for the gift of $4.7 billion that you will start transferring later this year. Then there was another forelock-tugging performance during the visits from the UK of Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps. The Australian euphoria about signing a Status of Forces agreement is ridiculous – these things are simple, routine, legal agreements that are put in place all the time. Australian politicians need to stop grovelling.
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We start with an unusual news item from Qatar: that country operates the NH90/Taipan family of helicopters – and they have an availability rate of 80%! But our Army – and the government – have been telling everyone that the main problem with Taipans was their lack of availability. Could it be that someone hasn’t been telling the truth? Also, we noticed an abandoned ex-Australian Special Forces vehicle in Ukraine and we wonder why some of these have been donated rather than being dismantled for spare parts and buried. By now it is too late for any of the Taipans to be reassembled for Australia – Army and the government are just too pig-headed for that – but there is still time to get them to Ukraine, even if it’s in the form of all the parts. And don’t look to the RAN to save us because they will soon be running out of surface ships. In the US the return of Donald Trump to the Presidency is suddenly looking more likely – and if he scraps AUKUS it might do us all a favour by bowing to the inevitable.
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We start with the revelation that it’s not the Department or Ministers to blame for the lack of information about Defence going to Australian industry and the media – it’s our own security services! I know because Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy says so. Speaking of security services and the annual assessment provided by ASIO head Mike Burgess – what a circus. The claim that an Australian politician was a traitor has sent shock waves throughout the country. Why was the person not arrested and charged with espionage? Mr Burgess hides behind not wanting to reveal operational details – but no one is asking for those. The whole thing is either a grotesque exaggeration or has been cooked up to make ASIO look tough. Next an impassioned appeal at the NPC from Ukraine’s Ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko directly to Defence Minister Richard Marles, which will probably be ignored. It makes no sense. Finally for all the bureaucrats trying to hide from the Taipan fiasco: the details are eventually going to come out.
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Just back from the Singapore air show, we have a few thoughts about the structure of defence industries – but the main topic is the government’s response to the review of the RAN surface fleet. There are some worthwhile developments, but how long will all of this take?
What we are witnessing is 20 years of very poor planning because the Hobart class should have been in continuous production in 3-ship batches with new technology insertion. Luerssen have been shafted because they simply produced the Arafura class in a configuration specified by the RAN.
The cover up regarding the disposal of Taipan helicopters is continuing, but at least we have a public inquiry into the fatal Talisman Sabre crash.
It might be that Ministers are finally waking up to the fact that the situation is by no means as simple as they might have been led to believe.
Finally: the Tiger Armed Reconnaissance Helicopters – either donate them to Ukraine or start converting them for uncrewed operations working in conjunction with the future Apache attack helicopter fleet.
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By popular demand, it’s time for more dirt on Taipan helicopters, but before that there’s some breaking news about AUKUS. In the US, supplemental funding that was going to help lift the rate of submarine production has fallen foul of Trump-worshipping Republicans in Congress. The omnibus legislation was mainly about securing the southern border but also contained military aid for Ukraine and Israel – plus about another $3.3 billion for submarine stuff. So while Australia remains on the hook for a contribution of $4.6 billion – which neither the government nor the RAN can justify – the Americans refuse to spend their own money to speed up submarine production. What an ally! Unless Virginia class submarines are being built at a rate of 2.33 per year, Australia will receive nothing. Finally – Taipan helicopters have received a decent amount of scrutiny in Senate Estimates, though some of the reporting of that has been woeful. Media colleagues: please get it through your thick skulls that the Taipan helicopters are perfectly safe. The obscene speed with which Army has tried to destroy them has only one cause – they don’t want another country to successfully use them because that would reveal massive Australian incompetence.
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Firstly, let’s have a look at the delayed F-35 program – an issue that has received very little coverage in Australia. The government promised that all 72 jets would be in country by the end of 2023. Well they aren’t, and no one is sure when the final nine will be delivered. Defence isn’t saying anything and the only comment from the government is it makes no difference whatsoever – in which case why not sell the last nine and stick with the 63 that we have? Also some snarky comments about the relationship Defence Minister Richard Marles has with the Department of Defence. Next – Taipan helicopters and there have been some developments, but none of them are particularly encouraging. I suggest that the Federal opposition does the job for which it is being paid. And finally, the impending government response into the surface fleet – and it looks like the Arafura class offshore patrol vessels will be a casualty. If so, more than $1.5 billion has been wasted. Does anyone care?
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In this episode we do some more digging into the extraordinary story of the destruction of the Taipan helicopter fleet when Ukraine desperately needs them. Why is the government so completely tone deaf? What do they hope to gain by turning down the request from Kyiv? Also visual evidence shows that many of them remain in good condition despite the government’s hints to the contrary. Defence’s own portfolio budget statements (PBS) for the current financial year say that a facility exists at Townsville airport for the storage of Taipans. Why isn’t it being used? Who keeps on making these ridiculous decisions, backed up with untruthful statements? We also have a few words about the use of FPV drones in combat and Australia’s lack of interest in them. And for more poor quality decision making, why have the two Canberra class LHDs been modified so that F-35B STOVL jets can never be operated from them.
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In this episode we have more detail on the scrapping of Taipan helicopters – noting that Ministers Marles and Conroy appear to have gone into witness protection – showing that they were not nearly as expensive to keep as Army has been complaining. I hoped to question the Prime Minister asking if Germany can donate six very old Sea Kings to Ukraine, why on earth can we not send 45 modern very capable Taipans to a country fighting for its survival? What sort of government do we have? The politicians can keep running away from this but they cannot hide forever. And what about the capability gap? Documents show that only six Black Hawks will arrive in this financial year to replace 45 Taipans – but neither Army nor the government seem to care. Finally a few words about Israel’s response to the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack – continuing to kill such large numbers of Palestinian civilians needs to stop. Let’s have a look at another conflict caused by a disproportionate response to terrorism: the First World War.
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Some very disturbing new information has come to light regarding the fiasco of retiring and burying the Taipan helicopter fleet. Senator David Fawcett (Lib / SA) has confirmed to me that he briefed the government in mid-October that Ukraine was interested in acquiring them. He was in a NATO meeting October 7-12 and met a number of Ukrainian military figures who stated their interest in Taipan, especially for MEDEVAC. It is unconscionable that the government then went ahead with the secret scheme to trash them. And let’s talk cost of living pressures. Getting rid of Taipans and unnecessarily replacing them with older Black Hawks costs around $4 billion, which works out to about $640 for a family of four. Which would you rather have: that money or some buried helicopters? Inflation? What is a major cause of inflation – the war in Ukraine. You want to put downward pressure on inflation then how about giving Ukraine the means to defeat Russia? And a final word about AUKUS. There’s also bipartisan support in the US for Ukraine – and look where that’s got them.
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In this episode we continue with the sorry tale of burying Taipan helicopters rather than donating them to Ukraine. This really is a disgrace and has the potential to cost Defence Minister Richard Marles his job because new information is that the Government was made aware in November of Ukraine’s interest, a full month earlier than previously reported. Mind you, that depends on the Opposition doing their job – namely, holding the Government to account. Ukraine wants to use the Taipans for casualty evacuation – and their use would save the lives of thousands of young men and women. What sort of Government do we have that prefers to destroy the helicopters rather than donate them to save lives? Finally for some comic relief we look at the time when Defence decided to bury two Russian helicopter gunships because they couldn’t think of anything better.
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Happy New Year!
While Australia was enjoying a peaceful Christmas, Ukraine was not – so why is our Army in the process of destroying 45 perfectly good Taipan helicopters rather than donating them? Ukraine made the request in mid-December and it looks like the government is pretending it hasn’t happened. It seems extraordinary that highly capable military helicopters worth $900 million – that the ADF has declared it no longer wants – are being disassembled as a prelude to being buried in landfill.
Who is running Australia – the elected Government or the Defence Department? This is a scandal in the making with a lot of detail to come exposing a significant coverup – but the truth will be revealed. What a shame that most people are on holiday – which is what Defence is counting on.
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Legislation has now passed the US Congress putting in place a framework for AUKUS Pillar One. Does this mean that Australia will be acquiring second hand Virginia class submarines? No, it does not. In fact some of the wording is so vague that a future US President could cancel the deal on a personal whim. Secondly, the industrial mobilisation problems are vast – and thirdly if anyone says AUKUS is safe from political changes because of bipartisan support in the US then they must be on drugs. Currently, US military aid to both Israel and Ukraine is being held hostage to demands from Republicans to fund the wall with Mexico – and Australia is no different. Also a lot of nonsense has been spoken about Virginias – they are not the best SSNs in the world. There are at least two other designs that are better. Finally – helicopters. What a travesty that Australia will spend $11 billion on previous generation machinery, without scrutiny, just to keep a handful of Army officers happy.
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Just for a change, we start with some positive developments, including a bilateral security treaty with PNG. Another positive item is a contract with Bisalloy to start qualifying steel for Australian built nuclear powered submarines. That looks to be 15 years earlier than necessary and might have more to do with US reporting requirements rather than Australian needs. Speaking of which, one of the main AUKUS boosters in Congress is Joe Courtney. He seems like a very nice reasonable person – but his Congressional district includes the Electric Boat submarine yard in Groton. It is owned by General Dynamics, which also happens to be his largest single donor. There’s nothing improper in this – it’s just the way politics works in the US but Australians need to be aware of the connection. Regarding Israel’s continuing pounding of Gaza with horrendous civilian casualties: please stop. You are damaging your own international reputation and it won’t wipe out Hamas, which is an idea, not a building or a person.
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It’s been a busy week in Canberra for the media – first, we had a National Press Club address by Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy. This was followed by businessman Robert Nioa launching a report titled: “ Developing Australia’s Defence Industrial Base” which details eight recommendations to the Department of Defence and the Australian Government about how to grow sovereign capabilities. The chances of it being accepted are not good because the Government – and Defence – believe they are doing a wonderful job and aren’t interested in any views to the contrary. Then we have another FMS purchase worth $3 billion for nuclear-powered submarine support services – but is the timing right? Finally the story of how a RAN officer tried to destroy the Collins submarine program – and rather than being shot was rewarded with promotions and medals.
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Continuing extraordinary revelations from the Joint Committee of Public Accounts and Audit into the Hunter class frigate program. Secretary of the Department of Defence, Greg Moriarty, accepts that the selected design was immature – and that he was misled by his own people about details of the evaluation. Next let’s visualise what $1 billion looks like when stacked in $100 notes – it’s about an 18 cubic metre block. Now imagine multiples of that being soaked with petrol and set on fire. Figuratively, that’s what Defence is doing with the unnecessary replacement of Taipan helicopters with Blackhawks. We provide a few more relevant examples. Finally, not re-opening our Embassy in Kiev and refusing to reveal details of VIP aircraft use – who can see the connection?
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Just for a change we start with a preview of a positive article in the next edition of APDR, a chat with Glenn Keyes the co-founder of Aspen Medical. Then an extraordinary development in better understanding the selection of the Type 26 frigate for the Hunter class program – a Defence review that is scathing of the Department’s own processes. This has been submitted to the Joint Committee of Public Accounts and Audit which, in turn, has been investigating an ANAO report into the 2018 selection process and details – among many other problems – missing crucial records. Call in the police! If it’s good enough to threaten APDR then the Department also needs further pressure. We have a few comments about the appalling level of ongoing violence in the Gaza Strip, which needs to come to an end. Some comments about nuclear powered submarines – and we conclude with questions about elephants.
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We finally had the chance to ask Defence Minister Richard Marles some questions about the proposed purchase of second-hand Virginia class submarines. The answers are not very encouraging – details are still being worked through and apparently everyone is enthusiastic.
Meanwhile we learn much more from open sources in the US, such as the importance to them of the costly and risky disposal of those submarines in Australia, by Australians. There is no logic to this and no rationale has been supplied – we are just told it is part and parcel of the deal. Why? The US hasn’t transferred nuclear-powered submarines before – but Russia has, and they took them back for disposal. Basically, the US is imposing on Australia a far worse deal than the one Russia has given to India.
Finally some words on how good Defence has become at blame-shifting to industry.
To conclude on the most important topic: we found no evidence of Defence personnel conducting orgies at the Indo-Pacific conference, but the investigation will continue.
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Fresh from a holiday in Korea there was an infuriating delay in Sydney getting off the aircraft – which is not unconnected with why Defence is a mess. Then one of the most extraordinary stories about the selective use of information and how it is that we are paying the US not $3 billion to join AUKUS – but in fact $4.7 billion. This huge difference has come about because Australian decision makers have been deceptive about which currency this payment will be made in. It turns out that it won’t be in Australian dollars but instead in US bills, leading to a necessary extra $1.7 billion which has been hidden from the Australian public. In addition we agree, surprisingly, with Alexander Downer that the idea of building nuclear-powered submarines in Adelaide is pure fantasy.
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- Visa fler
