Avsnitt
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Before we resume discussing the US media tour, we see that Collins class submarine sustainment has been put on the government’s Projects of Concern list. ASC, the company responsible, is legally owned by the Minister for Finance, so it’s one Minister putting another on notice. When you add the review into the Australian Submarine Agency to the mix it seems there are problems with the entire submarine enterprise – but a mere two months ago the Chief of Navy criticised the media for being too negative. Next, vertical launch missile systems and the Lockheed Martin Mk 70 that holds Harpoon and SM-6 could easily go on the Arafura OPVs – an idea so good it will be totally ignored by the RAN. Finally, we visited Sikorsky in Stratford, the Lockheed Martin company building the UH-60M Black Hawk, currently being delivered to Australia. This is an excellent, reliable helicopter that will be easier for the Australian Army to maintain – especially with the money that they are throwing at it. Does it justify the decision to destroy the Taipan helicopter fleet? Of course not.
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This podcast is coming from the USA but let’s start with the review of the Australian Submarine Agency, which came to light last week. This will be conducted by Dennis Richardson, one of the most pro-US people in the national security domain – so don’t be expecting any changes to the objectives of AUKUS Pillar One, just some fine tuning of methods. Next is an update of the F-35 program and the Block 4 upgrade, which has been installed on Australia’s final nine aircraft and will be retrofitted to the entire fleet. Let’s compare them with the capabilities of a Virginia class submarine – and 6 or 7 F-35s can deliver as many weapons as a single SSN. A submarine goes to sea with 40 weapons on board for a three month mission. F-35s can fly backwards and forwards, refuel and rearm – and continue attacking enemy targets day after day. Submarines are limited to the weapons they have when they leave port. Which is better value for money? Finally a few words on the end of the Assad regime in Syria: it won’t be missed.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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In this initial Defence industry chat, we discuss Navantia Australia’s Technical Partner Network.
As Jamie Gibbs explains, Navantia Australia is creating a network of local suppliers that will improve sovereign capability across the naval support domain. That’s a view shared by two of their partners, Rubicon Associates and Marenav, with both companies enthusiastic about the concept.
As John Robertson and Adam Smith (not the famous 18th century economist) describe, this approach greatly benefits strategic self reliance.
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In this episode we cover the two big Defence stories that broke last week: the emergency funding request in the US to prop up Virginia class submarine construction and secondly the Japanese government granting approval for the potential sale to Australia of Mogami class frigates. With the frigates, the Australian government, Defence and the RAN are now in serious danger of creating a false expectation that Japan is going to win this deal, no matter what. Unless this is true – in which case why bother with a competition – expectations need to be lowered because all that Tokyo is hearing is that Australia considers the relationship with Japan to be strategically vital. If the competition is real the quickest way of calming things down is for the competitors to be allowed to openly speak about what they are offering. Next, nuclear-powered submarine production in the US is slowing down – and the Australian Submarine Agency remains in complete denial. We know for a fact that production is slowing because the USN has said it is. That’s just a fact and no amount of talking up bipartisan support in Congress makes the slightest difference to reality. And guess what – the US is already practising its lines for when all of this goes bad.
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The SEA 3000 General Purpose Frigate shortlist has been confirmed and unsurprisingly the leaked information is correct – it’s Germany and Japan. But obviously it couldn’t be that simple, so two designs from Thyssenkrupp will be evaluated and one from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. However, the MHI ship the Mogami FFM has not yet been built, with the first to be delivered in 2027. This would seem to indicate it is already in breach of Defence guidelines,, which are for an existing design. But it’s even worse, with Chief of Navy telling Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy that the RAN is happy to take any combat system, throwing 30 years of work standardising around the Saab 9LV CMS into the bin. Then another sad story of an exceptional Australian company DroneShield selling its leading edge counter drone technology all around the world – just not in Australia. Instead, for a perimeter security requirement the RAAF recently awarded a $30 million contract to Anduril, the US company funded by tech billionaires. It’s enough to make one scream, along with a few other topics.
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First some unfinished business from the Submarine Institute of Australia conference. The Chief of Navy asks why aren’t there more positive stories about Collins submarines? The reason is quite simple: because you won’t tell us anything. This goes for the other services as well – you cannot complain about lack of coverage if you deliberately suppress the release of information. That’s something that Defence Minister Richard Marles knows well. It’s the definition of hypocrisy: say you are in favour of communicating with the Australian public and then obstruct journalists from doing their job. Some words about the new Trump administration starting to take shape and the surprisingly large amount of publicity about our current Ambassador – and former Labor PM – Kevin Rudd. Deciding who the Australian Ambassador should be is a decision for us – not anyone else. As for the eternal bonds of friendship between the US and Australia – when Trump was last President he didn’t even bother appointing an Ambassador here until the end of his term. That’s a clear indication of the importance Trump attaches to Australia. None.
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Our previous analysis of the US Presidential election was wrong – and by a wide margin. Obviously there’s a huge level of anger, resentment and frustration in the American system. Donald Trump has won a bigger victory than in 2016 – and the consequences for Australia are unknown. Any Australian politician assuming it’s business as usual runs the risk of making a major mistake. What do we do if Donald Trump jacks up the cost of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines by a lot? Has anyone in Defence or the government thought through those consequences? And please don’t say it could never happen. A quick summary of SEA 3000 – and it’s between Germany and Japan. Then the Submarine Institute of Australia conference where Chief of Navy mistakenly re-read his 2023 speech and during which journalists were told they would be kicked out of the venue if they approached anyone at morning tea to say hello. The Virginia class program is in big trouble because of supply chain issues – but you will never hear that from an Australian official. Finally, Army’s campaign of deception about the performance of Black Hawk helicopters continues. Someone has to put a stop to this outrage – it’s wrong at every possible level.
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We start with Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy at the NPC last week and lots of stuff about extra missiles for the ADF. That’s all well and good – but these things are either fully imported or, at best, manufactured under license here with a few local components. There are no longer any sovereign Australian IP in weapons – we seem to have collectively given up on the idea of designing any ourselves. The latest from the mess that is AUKUS Pillar One. Then a few words about the shock cancellation of JP9102. There goes the last chance of any form of sovereign satellite communications capability – it’s back to bad old days of having to go cap in hand to the US for some bandwidth – and then being charged a fortune for it. Finally, the shortlist for SEA 3000 the General Purpose Frigates approaches – and golly gosh what an unmitigated disaster this project is.
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In this episode we have some truly stunning – and worrying – information that the rate of US nuclear powered submarine construction is slowing down, not speeding up. The information is on the public record and comes from the CEO of Electric Boat, Phebe Novakovic in a briefing for shareholders. The problem is with the supply chain – companies manufacturing critical components cannot keep up with the required rate and as a consequence both the Columbia class SSBNs and Virginia SSNs will be delayed. This must be worrying news for the RAN – and it seems astounding that there has been no reporting of note in Australia about a development that could completely derail AUKUS Pillar One. The US also seems to be counting on Australia lifting Defence expenditure so that it can afford these submarines without cutting other capabilities – but that is exactly what has already started to happen. Finally, Defence officials have once again managed to get their way and have hounded German shipbuilding company Luerssen out of Australia.
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Last week saw a bit of extra good news for Ukraine with the announcement that Australia will donate 49 M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tanks that are being retired from service. An extra 10 Abrams will be available for spare parts, or they could be returned to a usable condition. No matter how you look at this, it’s a significant contribution because while the tanks are a bit long in the tooth they are still a formidable capability, particularly against the ageing junk that Russia is now forced to field. Also last week saw a bit of coverage of the latest US Congressional Research Service report into AUKUS Pillar One – and it identifies a number of failures in the Australian process. Related to this, we are spending billions of dollars in WA getting ready for the deployment of US and possibly UK nuclear-powered submarines with no one doing the analysis of whether we should simply increase the size of that force for the defence of Australia. Finally some words about the company Austal – how come they are all of a sudden in such a privileged position?
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We start with a Canberra bubble story – but one with national implications – the strange tale of the former Chief of Staff to Defence Minister Richard Marles. The CoS of a Minister plays a vital role in the daily running of the office and has additional important duties such as liaising with the Department, other Ministers and various stakeholders. Without a competent CoS in place an office rapidly becomes dysfunctional. Then a few more words about the unfolding disaster of SEA 3000, which is coming up for some form of short listing in November. Also we are starting to receive some information about how much Australia has earned from the sale of Taipan helicopter spare parts. The answer is – probably zero. Unfortunately it looks like the Tiger Armed Reconnaissance helicopters are also being mismanaged and unless there’s an urgent change of direction they will similarly end up in landfill. They should instead be going to Ukraine and there’s a case study that needs to be read aloud to every person in Army connected with the destruction of the Taipan fleet.
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There are 5 ship designers in the running for the SEA 3000 General Purpose Frigate contract – and 2 of them are from South Korea. In this episode we discuss Hanwha Ocean, based on a visit to their extremely impressive facility at Okpo near Busan on the south coast of the country. However, we could not discuss their Australian bid because the government has banned companies from speaking with the media under threat that if they do so their participation in the competition will be instantly cancelled. This is to prevent any information about how badly this project is being bungled by the RAN ever reaching the Australian public. Even with that restriction there was still plenty to talk about, including Hanwha Ocean frigates for the Korean and Thai navies. Then a few words about industry policy, where the government of South Korea is doing the Australian government’s job for it. As promised, a few words about UK nuclear submarine projects – and they are struggling so badly with their own programs it is hard to see how they will ever manage to design and build SSN AUKUS.
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Why does the Australian government show so little enthusiasm for increasing the amount of aid going to Ukraine? Doing so is overwhelmingly popular with about 80% of Australians in favour. However, it looks like the government and our officials are doing just enough to tick a few boxes. At a minimum a single person with a lot of authority needs to be put in charge of the aid program – and they need to get moving. Then a media trip to a factory in the Queensland town of Maryborough that manufactures 155mm artillery shells – and all of them are purchased by the German government before finding their way to Ukraine. A Joint Venture between Australian company NIOA and Germany’s Rheinmetall Waffe Munition, it could form an essential part of a sovereign 155mm projectile capability – but again that requires a decision followed by action. Finally a few words about AUKUS and Virginia class submarines – we do the maths and figure which ones we might receive.
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We return to some favourite themes: nuclear powered submarines; Taipan helicopters; and aid for Ukraine. But before that a few words about the Middle East and what looks to be a further deterioration in an already bad situation. Everyone shares blame, but it’s worth noting that major demographic changes mean that Israel is different from the country in the 1970s that many of us found inspirational. It must occur to people that there are some in Israel who don’t want peace with Hamas but will happily continue bombing Gaza until nothing remains. Equally, leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah don’t care how many of their own people die. After that, why cannot VADM Jonathon Mead – or the government - answer the simple question: what happens if the US cannot lift the production rate of Virginia class submarines to 2:33 per year.? It’s a very simple question without an answer. We conclude with updates on last year’s Taipan helicopter ditching and problems with the flow of aid to Ukraine.
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This is the Land Forces exhibition special feature with some random highlights from the show last week. These included an uncrewed 8-wheeled armoured ground vehicle enabled by AI and designed by BAE Systems to operate with conventional forces. Also SPEE3D, an Australian company using additive manufacturing to undertake in-field repairs. Despite international success – including sending units to Ukraine – do you think the Australian Army has bought any? A few words about Hanwha, the South Korean company that has gone from obscurity to now being the largest supplier, by dollar value, to the Army. They have announced that Sydney-based Advanced Navigation will become part of their global supply chains, which should be a huge boost to business. And some unexpected success – Chief of the Army has agreed to an interview to discuss the Taipan helicopter fiasco (my words, not his). Let’s hope other senior figures also push back against ridiculous Ministerial interference in what they can say in public.
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The government and the Australian Submarine Agency are up to their usual tricks of minimising scrutiny by playing media favourites. Not only is this wrong in principle it’s a symptom of deeper problems in the ASA – and there will be a lot more coming out about that in the next few days. People who know what they are doing enjoy having their ideas challenged and it is generally the poor performers who prefer to hide. And with that in mind, our squabble with Army over the destruction of the Taipan helicopter fleet continues. Why does it matter any longer now that the damage has been done? Two reasons – this fiasco should never be repeated; and secondly, let’s have some accountability. Army have been concealing true support costs for years – and we blow the whistle on some of those. Finally, the General Purpose Frigate program and could we be seeing a tiny glimpse of sanity?
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Unusually, we can start with two pieces of positive news. On August 22, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced that the government will spend $850 million on a factory in Newcastle that will produce Naval Strike Missiles and Joint Strike Missiles. These come from Norwegian company Kongsberg and will drastically improve the anti-ship capabilities of the ADF. This follows a decision to also manufacture GMLRS rounds locally for Army’s HIMARS launchers. After a slow start the GWEO is developing some momentum. On the next day, Defence Minister Richard Marles opened Hanwha’s armoured vehicle centre of excellence near Avalon airport. It will build Huntsman 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers and tracked Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicles – another positive for Australian manufacturing. Finally, the 3-way technology sharing agreement between the US, UK and Australia is already showing some major deficiencies. No surprise there.
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The government has announced, in its usual over-the-top manner, reforms to the export licensing system between Australia, the US and the UK. While this is fine in principle, it is based on an absolute lie, namely that Australia exports $5 billion worth of military technology to those partner countries. This is a joke. We sell some F-35 components to the US and almost nothing to the UK. The true figure is likely to be one twentieth of the government’s claim. At the same time, former Minister for Foreign Affairs was giving a speech with the title: “AUKUS – the worst defence and foreign policy decision our country has made.” More to come on this. Then let’s talk a bit more about the advantages of nuclear propulsion versus conventional – and many of the claimed differences don’t stand up to rigorous scrutiny. Also technological advances are making the South China Sea too difficult to operate a crewed submarine in today – let alone 10 years from now.
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There’s more AUKUS stupidity to talk about, with now a secret political deal with the US and UK to be factored in. It is so secret that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese doesn’t seem to have any idea what it’s about. There’s speculation that it could compel Australia to go to war with China over Taiwan – but that issue is more nuanced than most people understand. Or could it be about the storage in Australia of high level nuclear waste from other countries – which seems irrelevant since we will be storing many hundreds of tonnes of high level waste from our own decommissioned submarines. Why is the media incapable of asking obvious follow up questions? The only way left to reform the system is to start a new political party called Transparent Government and start taking seats off Labor, preferably including Corio, currently held by Richard Marles. Finally some wise words from David Sanger, one of the best and most knowledgeable national security journalists in the US.
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A poor start from new CDF Admiral David Johnson, who told ABC News Breakfast television that every day sees an increase in ADF capability.
The opposite appears to be the case with Navy in particular going backwards, followed by the Army – and for the next 10 years the RAAF isn’t receiving anything new thanks to budget restrictions.
Spotted during Exercise Talisman Sabre – Defence Minister Richard Marles riding in an Italian NH90 helicopter, which is almost identical to the 45 Australian Taipans he ordered destroyed in September last year. Might he have had the thought “how come the Italians can support these helicopters when the Australian Army could not?”
Then it looks like there’s a coordinated push back against criticism of AUKUS Pillar One, so we pour a bit more fuel over that particular fire. Finally an anecdote about Ministerial pomposity – or rather the lack of it – from the 1980s.
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- Visa fler
