Avsnitt
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The National Association of Realtors agreed to pay $418 million to settle an antitrust suit that showed that they colluded to inflate commissions, block competition, inflate US housing prices, and harm consumers. The $418 million might seem like a lot, but it’s less that a half percent (.5%) of the $100 billion of real estate commissions that consumers pay every single year!
So why did they settle? Because if they didn’t settle they could have faced a fine close to $6 Billion! They settled, gave up their right to appeal, and they probably got off cheap.
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But, it’s still progress.
At issue was a few key points that seem to be clearly anti competitive.
For some background, when you buy a house in the USA, in general there is a 6% real estate commission that is typically shared between the agent representing the buyer and the agent representing the seller.
The entire commission is actually paid by the seller of the house. So if you are selling a house for $1,000,000, $60,000 of your money is split between each realty company.
It’s worth noting that this 6% real estate commission is one of the highest in the world. Most countries it’s around 1-3%! We have been getting screwed and since this fee is fully paid by the seller of the house, it has been artificially inflating the price of houses.
Think about it like this. If you know you know your house is worth $1,000,000 and that’s how much you need in your pocket to leave your house, the sale price needs to be about $1,063,000 for you to be able to pay out the real estate commissions and still end up with $1,000,000. There is no free lunch. That means you will need to inflate the price of the house to $1,063,000.
How did America end up with this system? When you go to list your house, the realtors have a few way of controlling the entire process. It always seemed like illegal collusion to me, and it looks like the courts agreed.
First is, the realtors themselves were basically required to be a part of the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), the system that lists all the houses for sale.
When an agent listed a house, the rules would require the realtor publish the commission that the buyers agent would get right on the MLS.
And when you went to list your house, the realtor would make you sign a contract that you agree to pay the 6% fee and split it with the buyers agent.
There were some ways around this, but it made it WAY harder to sell your house.
I want to tell you a real story of exactly how it worked.
I have sold 2 houses without using a realtor and I have purchased 1 home without a realtor.
In recent years some services sprung up to offer a way for you to sell a house and have it listed in the MLS by paying a flat fee of between $100 and $500. It is way less expensive than the $25,000 commission for the average home sale in America.
So why didn’t everyone do this like I did? Because real estate agents HATED IT and they essentially wouldn’t work with you. I experienced this myself first hand.
Realtors will frequently claim that this never happened and that they would never put their commissions over the needs of their clients. I know for a fact this was a lie.
When we were selling our house in East Lansing I met with 4 different realtors to list the house. Only one would negotiate on the commission rate and it was only a slight decrease.
All of them gave me their suggested listing price.
I ended up opting to list it myself on a self serve MLS platform and I decided to market and advertise the property myself. I took all the pictures and videos and I paid money to advertise it myself.
Our house was listed in the MLS, Zillow, Realtor.com, Facebook, etc. Just like it would be if it was listed by a traditional agent.
Within a day or two, we showed the house to a friend of a friend and they agreed to purchase it. It was a military couple, it was their first house purchase, and they were not represented by a buyers agent yet.
From the very beginning of the process I was very clear with them.
I warned them:
* We will not pay your realtor commissions. That is up to you.
* You certainly have the right to get your own realtor.
* If you choose to get a realtor, you are responsible for paying the commissions.
* The biggest warning of all: if you do get a realtor, they will try to kill the deal.
The couple was amazing but they couldn’t understand why a realtor would try to kill the deal since the couple had done all the work to find the house, done the showing and walk through, and negotiated the sale price.
But since this was their first house purchase, after speaking with their parents, they decided to hire a real estate agent.
Immediately, problems started. The agent and I spoke. I explained that I would not pay their commissions and that the buying couple was well aware of that and had agreed.
The buyers agent would verbally say they understood but then would sneakily send me contracts with hidden language that tried to get me to agree to paying their commissions! It was very sneaky.
They attempted this 3 times. I refused every time. Luckily, I’m a nerd and read contracts.
When I refused to sign, the agent sent their broker to try to convince me. Again, I refused. They even suggested that I RAISE the price of the house to cover their commissions.
Translation: they tried to get their clients a worse deal! It was so gross to watch.
When I denied their attempts, I immediately informed their clients, the buyers of the house, of what was going on. The clients were shocked to learn that their own realtors were working against their own interests.
Nonetheless, the deal moved forward. For a short while.
Like many Americans, we have security cameras on the outside of our home by the doors.
Somehow the agent didn’t realize that these cameras record audio. I heard the agent give the client every reason in the book why they should NOT buy this house.
Over and over the agent would try to kill the deal. “You won’t want to be this close to the road”. “You won’t be worried being in East Lansing with college kids?” “You know 2 bedrooms might not be enough in the future”.
The agent didn’t say a single positive thing. It was so obvious what they were doing.
Of course, the buyers called me personally and told me they were going to back out of the deal and I could keep their earnest money deposit because they were so embarrassed by everything that had happened.
I refunded their money and moved on.
With this particular house sale, I had more than 15 agents contact me representing their clients. On every contact a few things were clear:
* The agent was only contacting because their client wanted to buy the house or get a showing.
* The agent hoped to talk me into letting them list my house for sale. (This way they would pocket both sides of the commission and get closer to keeping the full 6%)
* The agent wanted me to agree to pay their commission fee before they would show the house to their client. I of course refused.
* Only one of those agents ended up showing the house to their client.
This experience was so gross to me because it showed that the actual buyer of the home, their client, was not being responsibly represented. Their best interests were not being considered.
At least 14 buyers that wanted to see our house, and asked their agents to setup the showing - we’re not able to tour the house because their own realtor put their financial interest over the interests of their clients.
Now, I am NOT saying all realtors are bad. I am NOT saying that realtors don’t deserve to be paid. But I am sharing a story that actually happened.
And when I sold a house a few years later, it happened the same way. 100% of the times that I sold a house by myself without the use of real estate agents, this is what happened.
This doesn’t mean that it happens all the time, but it definitely means that it happens at least some of the time.
So what happened with the sale of our East Lansing house?
We ended up selling the house to a person that found it on Zillow. They did not have a realtor representing them. On average between the 4 different agents we considered listing with, the sales price of the house was $10,000 more than the listing agents suggested listing price and because we didn’t have to pay any realtor commissions, we ended up keeping $15,000+ more than what we would have if we had used a realtor.
The NAR settlement does the following:
* The settlement bans N.A.R. from allowing seller’s agents to set compensation for buyer’s agents.
* It aims to prevent "steering" by prohibiting practices that encourage buyers' agents to favor pricier homes for higher commissions.
* All fields displaying broker compensation must be removed from MLS databases.
* It eliminates the requirement for agents to subscribe to MLS to offer or accept compensation.
* The settlement may lead agents to reconsider their association membership due to severed links between agent compensation and MLS access.
It goes without saying, I love all my real estate friends and none of these systems were their fault. I think that this recent settlement will end up being better for realtors and consumers in the long run. But it might be a bumpy ride for a bit.
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Today I am going to complain and I feel gross about it because my life is amazing and no one wants to hear someone complain. But I want to share this story because I think it shows a side of humanity that people don’t talk about.
TLDR: Here’s the short version…
* I believe in active citizenship, so I joined the School Board.
* I had a silly idea to donate $3,000 to any staff or teacher at the school district.
* To make it a democratic process, I allowed anyone to nominate a staff member and vote for a winner online. Then I’d select the winner from the top ten.
* A few people got pissed! Calls to other board members, calls to the admin staff, outrage online… the whole nine yards.
* Now I need to decide if I should just cancel the whole thing, I want your input!
* And now I’m also considering resigning from the schoolboard. It just doesn’t seem worth it.
* And THIS is why people don’t serve.
As many of you know, I strongly believe that the duty of a citizen means more than simply voting. It means actually serving and participating in our democracy.
As a part of that philosophy, I decided to join the Haslett school board in October 2023. I was appointed so I didn’t have to go through the whole election process.
It has been an incredibly rewarding and educational process, but it also has been an incredibly high time commitment.
I’ve missed putting Lane to bed and reading him a book, which is one of my favorite activities, several nights. I’m missing an event with my wife tonight and a whole trip next week. But I am still honored to be able to serve.
A few months back, I received an email from the school staff asking me for my clothing sizes because they needed to order me a gown for Haslett Graduation.
I don’t know why I never thought of it, but I didn’t know that I would be on the stage with the graduates celebrating them. At my own graduation I remember looking up at the podium in admiration of those people all dressed up on the stage. It is very surprising to think that I am going to be one of those people on the stage.
This got me thinking about graduation a lot. A couple of Sundays ago, I was on a 10-mile run around Haslett and had the idea to give away some money to graduates of Haslett Schools. I thought about maybe giving some kind of scholarship to reward students considering a path toward entrepreneurship.
But after a lot of consideration and talking with my wife, we decided that there are lots of scholarships for students, which is awesome! But there aren’t a lot of scholarships or direct monetary awards for the dedicated staff members of the school district.
So I got home from that run and, after talking with my wife, I wrote a post on May 5, 2024, that basically said I was going to give $3,000 away to any staff member of Haslett Public Schools.
I thought a way to make it more democratic and get more people involved would be to let anyone in the community or the staff member themselves nominate any staff member and share a story about how that staff member impacted their life in a positive way and why they should receive the award.
Then I had the idea of making it as fair as possible by allowing anyone in the Haslett community to vote for the award by commenting or liking the comment that nominated a particular person.
I felt like this was the way to get the community involved and make it as democratic as possible.
My wife would select the top 10 nominees that got the most votes, and then I would select a winner. Then I would give the individual staff member $3000 directly from myself. I felt this was the most fair because I wasn’t the only one just picking the person that would receive the gift.
I clearly stated in the post that this had nothing to do with my position on the school board and this wasn’t a part of the school district.
I have taken all of the board trainings, and I am a certified board member. From my reading of the rules and my understanding, this wasn’t a violation of any laws or any ethical rules by the state or district.
I never anticipated the amount of backlash that this would receive.
Sadly, my friends on the school board received complaints about this. The administration team at Haslett Public Schools received complaints as well. So many that they actually had to have their attorneys review my proposal, and they arrived at the same conclusion that I did: this was completely legal and not a violation of any ethical rules or guidelines.
The complaints seemed to be categorized into a few main points:
* It was a popularity contest
* It was illegal or unethical or a violation of board policy
* I should not be involved in selecting the winner
* I should have used the Haslett Foundation
* It "just felt wrong"
Some specific feedback included:
* "It's a morale killer."
* "It will do more harm than good."
* "As a board member why not work harder on getting all of the staff a much needed raise?"
* "A better idea may be to donate the money to a building in the name of the staff member you pick."
* "You should have done this through the foundation."
* "You should have done a scholarship."
* "What about paraprofessionals? (Even though it says for all staff)"
* "Why not all staff instead of just one?"
But I have addressed all of these concerns in my approach. I tried to reason with people with responses and even phone calls to upset individuals. No one changed their mind despite me giving more context and background.
Even though I disagreed with the criticisms, I decided to listen to their advice and made a private form where anyone could submit a nomination so that it wouldn’t be a popularity contest. I thought this would address one of the main criticisms. But it didn’t.
Why Didn’t I Give the Money to The Foundation For Haslett Schools?
The other general complaint revolved around the idea that instead of me giving the money directly to the staff member, I should instead donate the money to the Haslett Education Foundation, an organization that I already contribute to and value.
The reason I didn’t give the money directly to the foundation is because the foundation has recently hired an executive director, which is quite costly. The executive director's compensation put a lot of overhead onto the foundation.
I didn’t want the donation to go towards overhead expenses; I wanted all of the $3000 to go directly to the staff member of Haslett Public Schools. I continue to donate to the Haslett Public Schools Community Foundation, but for this particular donation, I wanted it to directly go to the staff member that needed it, and I didn’t want to burden the foundation with administering and managing this donation without being compensated for that work. It didn’t seem fair to me to make them administer it without being compensated.
After sharing the reasons why I did it this way and changing the nomination process to address all the negative criticism, it didn’t satisfy any of the upset people.
Now the criticism is that “it just doesn’t feel right” or “you shouldn’t be involved in picking the winner” or “it’s just wrong.”
I must say. I’m rather dismayed by this whole thing. Something that I thought would be a fun and happy event has been tarnished by a constant stream of criticism. Of course, the VAST majority of people have been positive. But some of the loudest complaints are from people I have known for 15+ years and have personally helped in the recent past. I know I shouldn’t let it upset me, but I have to be honest, it does.
So I’m not sure where this leaves me. To be honest, I want to cancel the donation if that is what the community wants.
I feel bad that this donation has caused my other school board members to have to spend time on this. I feel bad that this has been a headache for the dedicated administration team at Haslett Schools to have to deal with.
And if I’m being more honest… it makes me want to resign from the school board altogether.
I don’t know how anyone signs up to be a politician. This seems like a terrible job.
Let me know what you think I should do by replying to this email, commenting below, or sending me a text message.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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My friend posted a short video from the amazing Jon Stewart. I love Stewart and I think he’s a national treasure. But on this particular issue, I think he has it exactly backwards. Here is the video:
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I would suggest, this isn’t a problem of corporations. Definitely not ALL corporations.
Let me explain, last week I closed a business that I founded called Open Install Alliance. I tried it, I lost some money, and it failed. I had to pay $890 to the government last week just for the privilege of closing the company (Dissolution).
This cost no one else anything. So point 1 is just clearly wrong. When a corporation closes, we don’t get to socialize the losses. It’s not corporations that do this. Not, ALL, corporations socialize their losses.
What Mr Stewart is referring to is NOT a problem of capitalism or corporations. It is a problem of too much regulatory control by government.
He says that it is “big corporations” that privatize their losses, yes, that’s right in some cases and it’s gross.
But how do corporations do this? By lobbying the massive government to do things that enrich the politicians themselves, the individual corporation, and in most cases at the expense of the common taxpayer.
It’s wrong. It should be stopped.
But I would suggest that the data is clear, it’s not the Corporation’s that are the problem. It is the bigness of government that is the problem. It is the fact that government has its tentacles into every single area of our lives.
To test this is rather easy, if you were to remove the government from the equation and let’s say GM (a company I so love) was faced with another 2008 financial crisis, what would happen?
GM would have been forced out of business, or sold to another competitor at a discount. It was only the fact that they were able to influence Government that they were able to socialize their losses.
Without government, GM does not have the power of coercion to force all Americans to pay for their mistakes or socialize their losses as Stewart points out.
What Stewart advocates for is expanding government more. This is precisely the wrong direction.
If instead we reduced government, became more capitalistic, we would have a more dynamic and vibrant economy.
But it would be messier!
It inherently means that companies would go out of business more frequently, it would mean that people and corporations alike would be forced to confront the difficult circumstances that their own choices produced.
BUT ultimately, it would be better for everyone and it would make us all richer.
You can see this if you look at America at its founding vs America today. How long did it take the build the Empire State Building? How long does it take to fix a road today? It took about 7 years to build the first transcontinental railroad in the United States. How long would it take today?
We have made well intentioned tradeoffs over the years that we didn’t know would create these outcomes. But now we must be forced to reckon with the reality in which we now live.
Now let me say it more clearly: Government is important. But it must be limited to the things it does well and are necessities.
Examples:
* Government Necessity: Providing Justice.
* Not a necessity: Limiting what lightbulb you’re allowed to buy.
* Government Necessity: Resolving Bankruptcy.
* Not Necessity: Giving money to a company to prevent its bankruptcy.
Side note: I think it’s funny how Stewart says “wealthy people” without acknowledging that he is one…
God bless America. God bless Jon Stewart. I just think he has this one a little bit wrong.
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First a confession… I’ve been predicting Full Self-Driving cars would be a reality “this year” for about a decade, so you might want to take my predictions with a grain of salt. 😂😂
However, I recently got my hands on Tesla’s Full Self Driving version 12, marking the first iteration that leverages machine learning and neural networks, akin to AI systems like ChatGPT. This new approach eschews traditional programming for a model where the system learns by observing the world’s best drivers (with consent) and emulates their driving styles. This is a huge advancement for many reasons.
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* By using end to end neural networks (Think AI), instead of software developers needing to code millions of lines of descriptive computer code, (A stop sign looks like this… This is what you do when you see a stop sign… ETC) with the new system, Tesla was able to throw away more than 300,000 lines of explicit C++ code. Now, quite literally, the computer is writing it’s own code!
* Because the system is now learning by watching and mimicking the best drivers, it drives much more smoothly. The drive feels more natural. More like a human is driving.
* Development is much faster now. Instead of software developers needing to explicitly program every line of code, the computer system is learning and coding by itself!
* The computer learns by observing, not being told what to do. For instance, in the past when the programming was all done by humans, a human would have to program into the system how to avoid potholes. But now since the system is just observing what great drivers do and mimicking their behavior, the system has taught itself how to identify potholes and what to do to avoid them. It’s not perfect yet. But it’s getting pretty good.
When we returned from our trip to North Carolina it was our first long car ride using Full Self Driving Version 12. With the old software, the system would drive us about 90% of the drive.
But this drive was MUCH better! The system handled everything from highways to parking lots seamlessly. The only manual tasks I had to perform were deciding on parking specifics, like whether we were stopping for a drive-thru or parking to go inside the restaurant.
Laken, who has been skeptical of the jerky nature of the Full Self Driving (Beta) we’ve had for four years, was impressed with the new system. The latest version drives smoothly, mirroring human-like driving precision. It’s quite the game-changer.
With 3 million Teslas already equipped with the necessary hardware out of the 6 million produced, the implications are enormous. As these cars and the 2 million new Teslas produced annually start performing autonomous Uber rides, a lot of cool things are going to happen:
* A significant number of lives will be saved.
* It will compel other car manufacturers to license Tesla’s software, especially after the recent adoption of the Tesla charging standard by most car manufacturers.
* Most cars, which currently sit idle and parked 95% of the time, represent a huge waste of resources. Now, those same cars could be out driving autonomously, performing Uber rides and generating income. For many Americans, a car is the second largest expense they have; this shift has the potential to turn it into a profit-making asset.
To say I’m excited is an understatement. With the flip of a switch, 3 million cars on the road today are going to turn into Robots on 4 wheels. It’s going to save a lot of lives since car accidents are the number one cause of death for young Americans. And it’s going to make transportation cleaner, safer, and cheaper.
Mark my words, I predict that we will look back and say that April 2024 was the date that Humans Invented Self Driving Transportation.
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A quick housekeeping update. You probably noticed that I missed 2 weeks of posting. I’m sorry. I have been extremely busy and missed my deadlines. I’m hiring some help so that this won’t happen again. I have paused billing for paid subscribers and given you a Free Month due to me missing my deadlines.
Thank you so much for being a paid subscriber. I made it a full year publishing once a week. I plan to keep it going another year because of your amazing support. THANK YOU.
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I bet my friends $500 that I could make them happier in 7 days and 100% either got happier or stayed very happy. It was a huge success! In my opinion… However, one of my readers significantly disagreed with me.
I shared the readers previous comment in my last post titled “Challenge Results: All Participants Got Happy In 7 Days!”
That reader replied to the last post so I wanted to share it to see what you all think. I want to get outside opinions to see if maybe I’m off the mark on this one. I always like to check my thinking to make sure I’m not missing something. So I look forward to your feedback and input.
Below is their response to my last post. Please share your own feedback in the comments, email me, or in reply to this poll:
“Travis,
I’ve purposely waited a few days to comment after reading your most recent blog, just so I could rethink my prior comments, and your reaction to them.
I think it is wonderful that you have been successful overcoming your grief and depression. I also think it is very kind of you to try to help total strangers do the same. So, I am sorry if my words seemed harsh. In retrospect, they were.
Please know, that I didn’t take issue with your attempt to help others. I merely thought that your offer to pay someone to try out your system of increasing happiness was misguided.
My issue was, and continues to be with your comments about the world being such a better place than when you grew up, because it clearly is not. Yes, advances in technology including space adventures have improved the world in many ways, but those same advances have made people crueler, and the world more dangerous.
The timing of your comments amidst horrific school shootings and increasingly dangerous world conflicts was what bothered me. I immediately wondered if the Michigan school shooting had happened in the Haslett school district where you are a member of the school board instead of Oxford, would you still have blogged about how much greater our world is today?
How would you have responded to the parents whose children’s lives were brutally taken from them? Would you still have issued your be happy challenge to members of a community devastated by another horrific act of school gun violence, which incidentally, never happened when I was growing up?
That’s what I meant by being tone deaf.
I still think you mean well.
Take care”
Here is the readers original response to my offer:
“There’s a reason for that Travis, and it’s not the money. Are you really that tone deaf?
I read your comments a while ago about how much greater the world is today than in the past because of Elon Musk and his space ship right around the time that I read the horrific stories of the numerous women, young and old in Israel who were gang raped, passed from soldier to soldier, had their breasts cut off and tossed around like footballs, and only after all of that were brutally murdered.
Seriously?
Just yesterday, I watched the sentencing of the stupid kid from Oxford whose stupid and neglectful parents bought him a hand gun which he then used to execute four of his classmates, and traumatize an entire community.
This is the world we are leaving our children and grandchildren. It is NOT better. It is not better than the era when I went to school with my parents or myself not fearing if I would could home at the end of the day.
Your privilege is blinding you.”
I look forward to hearing from you. Am I off base?
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I wanted to give a short personal update: I've joined Scribe Media as VP of Marketing. I've been a fan of Scribe for a long time because they have published some of my favorite books including those from David Goggins & my good buddy Eric Jorgenson. If you read business books, I've probably given you a copy of The Almanack Of Naval Ravikant.
Scribe has been around for almost a decade and has produced 2,000 plus books. Hundreds of them have been Amazon best sellers and 23+ were New York Times & WSJ best sellers. They have published books from authors like: David Goggins, Tiffany Haddish, Dan Sullivan, Kevin Harrington, and Tucker Max (Founder).
After the founders of Scribe sold the company to a new owner a few years ago, sadly, the new owners mismanaged it and it went bankrupt.
But Scribe provides an important service to the world and has some of the most loyal & amazing employees I've ever met.
So we are rescuing it and our goal is to make it the largest book publisher in the world. Eric is now the CEO. Sieva & Xavier from Enduring Ventures are backing.
So how is Scribe different? With a traditional book publisher, they only publish books that they know are going to succeed, they give you a pretty small up front payment, you lose control of your book, and you only get paid a very small fraction of what the book sells for.
Scribe is totally different. Our authors retain all the rights and control to their book. We help them write it, publish it, print it, distribute it, market it - everything. And the author keeps full control. It's a completely different model.
What's really cool about Scribe is, if you already have a book written - awesome. We can edit, publish, and market it for you. But if you need us to help you write it, we can do that too.
We pair you with a award winning author, you commit to doing a 2 hour interview with us every week, and at the end you have a fully published book! Literally anyone with a story to tell and an expertise can be a published author. (Let me know if you want to publish a book!)
So why am I doing this? I was a little bored and was struggling to figure out what big task I wanted to take on next and I was venting to my best buddy Ryan James: He said "Just be patient, let it come to you, it always has." 3 days later my good buddy Eric Jorgenson let me know about what was going on at Scribe... Timing is everything!
I like to think of my life in Seasons... The season I'm in now is all about becoming a better writer, hence my Year Of The Opposite newsletter... Also, I've always gotten excited about learning new industries and businesses. I call myself "Industry Agnostic". I've done Media, Manufacturing, Sales, Software, Hospitality, and Data Centers. Business is my sport.
So now being able to learn the ins and outs of the publishing industry and helping to revive one of the most important publishing brands in the world. It was perfect timing.
FYI: I'll continue writing Year Of The Opposite every week, none of my other businesses are going away - I'm adding on, not replacing. I'll even have a cool announcement next week.
Stay tuned.
Thanks to YOU for caring enough to read this. I'm truly blessed.
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Welcome to Year Of The Opposite: Travis Stoliker's Newsletter for People That Don't Subscribe to Newsletters. Ex: Saddleback, Liquid Web, & Techsmith.
Read Time: 6 minutes.
3 months ago I proposed a crazy challenge: “You'll be happier in 7 days or I'll pay you $500!” I proposed this challenge because I was worried about how many of my friends were telling me that they were depressed. I had an idea that perhaps the strategies that worked to resolve my own depression from grief might help others.
I was a little surprised that this offer upset one of my loyal readers and someone I respect. After I mentioned that no one had accepted my challenge, I announced that I was raising the reward from $50 to $500, prompting this response:
“There’s a reason for that Travis, and it’s not the money. Are you really that tone deaf?
I read your comments a while ago about how much greater the world is today than in the past because of Elon Musk and his space ship right around the time that I read the horrific stories of the numerous women, young and old in Israel who were gang raped, passed from soldier to soldier, had their breasts cut off and tossed around like footballs, and only after all of that were brutally murdered.
Seriously?
Just yesterday, I watched the sentencing of the stupid kid from Oxford whose stupid and neglectful parents bought him a hand gun which he then used to execute four of his classmates, and traumatize an entire community.
This is the world we are leaving our children and grandchildren. It is NOT better. It is not better than the era when I went to school with my parents or myself not fearing if I would could home at the end of the day.
Your privilege is blinding you.”
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Ouch. The comment stung me a little bit but I tried to make sure to listen for the truth in it. One of my favorite quotes from Naval is: “If it hurts to hear it, look for the truth in it. If it comforts to hear it, look for the lie in it.”
Maybe she was right. Maybe I was delusional that these simple steps might help make people a little happier. Maybe the world is just terrible and getting worse and this explains everyone’s sadness. Maybe she was right.
Luckily, 6 readers took me up on my challenge, so we were able to see if she was right! Let’s take a look…
As a reminder, here are the rules for the challenge to make you happier.
* Work out for 30 minutes everyday.
* Ignore your phone, email, & social media for the first 1 hour of the day and the last 1 hour before you go to bed - every single day.
* Keep a private journal everyday.
* No alcohol or drugs that aren’t prescribed by a doctor for all 7 days.
Results: Lets see how those 6 participants did!
* Average Happiness Before the Challenge: Participants rated their happiness an average of 5.67 out of 10 before starting the challenge.
* Average Happiness After the Challenge: After completing the challenge, the average happiness rating increased to 7.67 out of 10.
* Average Tasks Completed: On average, participants completed about 25 out of the 28 tasks, indicating a high level of engagement with the challenge activities.
* Average Happiness Increase: The challenge resulted in an average happiness increase of 2 points on the happiness scale.
* Maximum Happiness Increase: The largest reported increase in happiness from a participant was 4 points on the scale.
* Minimum Happiness Increase: The smallest change recorded was no change in happiness level. But it is worth noting that this individual already had a very high happiness level at 9 out of 10. It stayed constant at 9 out of 10.
* Number of Participants Who Reported an Increase or the Same Happiness Level: 6 out of 6 participants!
This was A HUGE success! Thank you to all 6 participants.
Here is the feedback from each participant:
* "It definitely worked, and the motivational texts helped keep me on track. I liked the journaling because it allowed me to ""vent"" to myself in writing and then go to bed with a clear mind. Also no phone/email/etc. for the first and last hour of the day really helped my sleep - much more than I thought it would. Trying to continue that habit! Also working toward no TV for an hour before bed as well - but I watch the news before bed :( Baby steps! Thank you Travis!"
* "I thought the challenge had some valuable components. I was really good about shutting my phone off at night, so I was reading instead of doom scrolling. That was an accomplishment all by itself. I haven't been good about sticking with it, but filling out this survey is making it top of mind again. I was also a lot better about journaling when I was doing the challenge. I think the important part of that was that the journal prompts were positive. Since I have had some things going on in my personal life, my journaling has tended to be reliving negatives and trying to make sense of things. I haven't been disciplined about self affirmation. The most valuable piece of all of it was being accountable to someone I perceive as successful and disciplined, and also someone who wasn't my mom or an old friend with whom I would probably get away with (at least in my own head) being slightly less accountable than with a peer in the business community. Thanks for the opportunity!"
* “I didn't really participate to increase my happiness. I was interested in starting some habits that are pretty well proven to improve your life. My only feedback for the next rou s of research might be some simple tools to break the inertia. A checklist to check off every day once a task is done. A document with a couple prompt questions for the thankfulness journal. Nothing too advanced and nothing that need to be turned in. Just tools for those who want to use them that might help. Looking forward to hearing more about where you might be going with this line of thinking and informal research. And....we need to set a date to.tour the maker space. I need to get creating again.
* "Definetly felt better and slept better when I followed the phone rule. Activity is a bit difficult due to back issues, but I did start a regimen of chair yoga. Continue to do it as I'm able. You continue to be an inspiration! Carry on!"
* “I loved the challenge of it. Life is just hard especially with a toddler running around getting sick all the time... It was a great experience”
* “It was a great motivator for me and I was determined to succeed (I did). The flexibility of the task timing helped a lot. I have continued on with the tasks, and in particular, the exercise. But being more mindful of screen time was also a great habit to get into. Overall, I feel more mindful, relaxed and happy. Glad I took you up on the challenge!”
My thoughts on this data:
* This Reinforces The Theme of The Year Of The Opposite: If you are disappointed with your life or sad, change it up and it might have a huge positive impact! What worked for me has now worked for 6 others.
* The biggest benefit went to those that are very sad to begin with: Participants who started off with a Low Initial Happiness level experienced a greater increase in happiness, with an average increase of 3.0 points on the happiness scale. In contrast, those with High Initial Happiness levels saw a smaller average increase, at 1.5 points. This suggests that participants who began the challenge with lower levels of happiness had more room for improvement and, as a result, tended to see a more significant positive change through their participation in the challenge.
* Too Many Variables: I think I may have introduced too many variables into this challenge by having everyone complete 4 tasks each day. Since there are 4 variables, it’s hard to know which action had the highest impact.
* Accountability and Community is hugely important to happiness: One of the things that I did for this challenge was that I kept in contact with each of the participants each day. This seemed to make a big impact on the participants. It goes to show how important having an accountability partner and a strong social network are to your happiness.
* Ignoring Screen Time Had Huge Impact: Participants reported that ignoring their phone had a massive impact on their happiness. I was surprised at how many people mentioned this in their feedback.
My Hypothesis:
There is clear scientific research that all 4 of these activities are statistically proven to improve happiness. But I have a hypothesis that I would like to test at some point.
I’m starting to think that only one thing matters: Your Reputation With Yourself. When someone sets a goal to accomplish and then they follow through and achieve it, it makes them happy! We all know it. We’ve all felt it.
It was said that “Self esteem is just the reputation you have with yourself.” If you are a person that can set goals for yourself and follow through with them, you’re gonna be happier. I know this deep in my bones. If the goal is challenging, it’s gonna have an even greater benefit to your mood.
I have an idea to launch another challenge. I think that if an individual set themselves a goal to do something positive for themselves every single day and they completed it consistently, I think it would make every person happier. I don’t think it was so much the specific tasks that I setup.
For instance: If you want to learn the piano and you set a goal to practice everyday for 10 minutes, I bet you’d be happier at the end of a week! If you wanted to learn spanish and you practiced consistently everyday for a week, I bet you’d be happier at the end.
The bigger the goal, the more challenging it is to you, and the more important it is to you - I bet it would correlate with the improvement in your mood. The bigger the goal, the greater the improvement in your mood. But this is just a theory I’d like to test.
Challenges With The Data:
Of course, this is not a scientific study, it’s only a few individuals, the data is self reported, and probably the biggest issue with the data is a “selection bias”. Which basically means, the people that selected themselves to participate in my challenge are probably people not fully representative of the human population because they are all people that follow my newsletter and they are people that are willing to challenge themselves to get happier.
But even with the challenges in this imperfect study, every single person (including me) improved their mood and one person kept their happy mode consistent. That to me is incredibly awesome!
Thank You!
Thank you so much to all 6 participants in the challenge. I appreciate you.
If anyone would like to take me up on the $500 challenge for themselves, I’m willing to do it again! Just let me know by leaving a comment.
Thank you all so much for reading my newsletter, The Year Of The Opposite. Don’t forget that all of my articles are available as a podcast too. If you enjoyed this, I would really appreciate if you would share this with a friend.
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I’m very sorry for my absence. My son and I fell very sick with a stomach bug and we are finally back rejoining the world. That was rough. Thanks for your patience.
Whenever I’m sick I am reminded of the quote: “A healthy person wants a million things. A sick person wants just one.” This made me want to tell the story of the medical therapy ATA188.
A month ago I shared the story of an incredible invention that will cure the terrible pain from Sickle Cell Disease. Miraculously, there are now two drugs approved by the FDA that completely cure this disease. It is truly incredible.
But we also discussed that the drugs Casgevy and Lyfgenia are priced at $2 million to $3 million per treatment!
A shocking price tag to say the least.
It’s understandable why someone might look at that price tag and get angry with the company that is selling the products. How dare they charge millions of dollars for something that is supposed to help cure people?
This brings up a big hairy question: How much should medical treatments cost? How should they be priced?
In the case of these two drugs, the alternative treatment for the patients costs $4 million over a lifetime and doesn’t provide relief from pain. So even at $2-$3million, the new treatment is less expensive, better for the patient, and saves the patient from a lot of ongoing pain.
But even so, I can totally understand why someone would still look at the $3 Million price tag and think that the pharmaceutical company that is selling the drug is a money hungry monster. I get it.
But not all drugs that are tested are successful like Casgevy and Lyfgenia.
Take for instance, ATA188 from Atara Biotherapeutics.
ATA188 is an immune therapy designed to treat multiple sclerosis (MS). This therapy is working on the newly developed theory that MS might be caused by the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in someway. This really cool study of over 10,000,000 military personnel showed a strong correlation between EBV and MS.
ATA188 hoped to use healthy t-cells to target EBV cells to reduce or halt the progression of MS, offering a new approach to treating this chronic disease.
I have two close family members that suffer with MS so I have been following this treatment fairly closely in hopes that it could offer some answers and potentially a solution for my loved one.
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A little history on drug/therapy development:
Medical treatments like drugs and immunotherapies like ATA188 usually involve many partners and organizations that work together to test and develop these medical inventions. For ATA188, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute were involved. Atara Biotherapeutics was the company that was commercializing the technology.
What does this mean? Well basically the universities are often the ones that invent the new therapy or drug but they aren’t that great at testing, getting FDA approval, and bringing the drug/therapy to market so that patients can buy the product to help them.
So usually the Universities partner with a company or a bunch of investors to help get the innovation from the lab into the real world. That’s where a company like Atara Biotherapeutics comes in.
Atara enters into a licensing deal with the University and the people that invented ATA188 where, in most cases, the University/Inventor give the company a license to commercialize the invention, and in exchange they get fees and royalties if the product is sold to customers and patients.
But, the catch for Atara Biotherapeutics is that now they must pay for the testing and trials that go into getting the drug/therapy approved. This can take a very long time and cost a hell of a lot of money.
For instance, the phase 1 trial for ATA188 was way back in 2017. As you may recall, in most cases there are 3 phases of trials. I’m greatly simplifying this but in general here is what the trials do:
* Phase 1: Get a small group of people, give them the drug/treatment, make sure it’s safe and test what dosage to give.
* Phase 2: Get a larger group of people and make sure it’s safe and figure out what the best dosage to give is.
* Phase 3: Get an even larger group to test that the drug is safe and evaluate how it compares to the alternative treatments on the market and placebo.
All of us in the MS community were thrilled when we saw the results of the Phase 1 trial. 9 of the 24 people in the trial had improvement in their disability! This got a lot of us very excited that we may finally have some relief for MS patients.
Of course, this early trial data got Atara Biotherapeutics excited too! With this result they wanted to put more money into funding Phase 2 trials.
Here is how they designed the Phase 2 study:
“The Phase 2 EMBOLD study for ATA188 is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled dose-expansion trial designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ATA188 in patients with progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS). The study, which began with the enrollment of the first patient in June 2020, aimed to measure changes in disability measures compared to baseline, particularly sustained disability improvement (SDI) over time. Additionally, the study included multiple measures of patients' function as well as various biomarkers.”
So to recap the timeline, the phase 1 study started in 2017 and the phase 2 portion of the study didn’t start until mid 2020.
This is one of the things that contributes to the cost of drugs. It just takes a long time to test them and make sure they are safe. Not only did it take 3 years from phase 1 to phase 2, but phase two itself was designed to last 2 years.
Sadly, in November of 2023, we got the first results from the Phase 2 trials and they were bad. The therapy had failed.
Here is the technical jargon:
“ATA188 did not meet its primary endpoint of change in confirmed disability improvement among patients with non-active progressive multiple sclerosis after 12 months of treatment. A 6% disability improvement was observed in the ATA188 group at the 12-month findings, which was significantly lower than the 33% observed in the Phase 1 study. The expected rate of confirmed disability improvement for patients on placebo was 16% at 12 months, exceeding the 4% to 6% expected rate.”
Basically, after 6 years of testing and a lot of hope and promise, the people that received the treatment in the study did WORSE than those that received a placebo. Somehow 16% of the people that received the placebo got better but only 6% of the people that received the treatment.
How could that be? How could people that didn’t get any treatment (placebo) do better than those that got the treatment? — We don’t know. But this is exactly why we do these tests. Not only do we have to make sure they are safe, but we also have to make sure that they perform better than a placebo.
So what happens with ATA188? It’s not certain yet. Atara Biotherapeutics has fired 25% of their staff including a VP and their Chief Medical Officer. The severance payments to those employees alone, just for firing them, was more than $4million.
So how much did Atara Biotherapeutics spend on ATA188?
It’s not easy to tell exactly how much was spent on ATA188, but what we do know is that Atara spent a lot on research and development:
* In 2020, the total R&D expenses were $244.65 million.
* In 2021, the total increased slightly to $282.001 million.
* In 2022, the total slightly decreased to $272.533 million
Now of course, not all of that money was spent on ATA188 and these are just 2020, 2021 and 2022 numbers. So lets be very conservative, let’s say that $150,000,000 was spent to test ATA188. I think that is a very conservative number, but I can’t be sure.
That money is now gone. $150,000,000 out the door, never to return.
Not only is the money gone, but several medical professionals spent their time and effort for almost 7 years working on the testing for this drug. That time and effort is all gone now.
Where did the $150 million come from?
Atara is a publicly traded company meaning that anyone of the public can purchase shares in the company. The owners of the company are the ones that lost the $150,000,000. Take a look at their stock price:
Anyone that invested in Atara for the past 5 years, most likely lost a lot of money. So why did they invest? They invested because they believed ATA188 would work. Maybe they were suffering with MS so they wanted to put their money into a company that might provide a cure. Maybe they were just money seeking investors that read the Phase 1 study, got excited, and thought they could invest in the next Novo Nordisk stock that was going to the moon!
Whatever their rational, the investors that put money into Atara were the ones that took the financial risk to test ATA188. They risked their own capital to see if this treatment could help other humans.
On this bet, they lost. This drug failed and it probably cost them about $150,000,000! An incredible amount of money. Hard to imagine really.
It’s estimated that only 1 in 5,000 drugs/therapies that are tested make it to human clinical trials. And of the drugs / therapies that make it to human clinical trials, only 1 in 10 will ever get regulatory approval. That’s about a 0.002% chance that a therapy may be approved!
So why would anyone take the risk with their own money when there is only a 0.002% chance of success?
It’s easy to answer: They invest for the chance to make a lot of money.
Think about it like this…
Let’s say you are in vegas and you walk past a slot machine that says there is a .002% chance of winning. If you put in $1 you have a .002% chance of winning $10. Would you do it? Probably not.
But what about $1 bet for a .002% chance to win $1,000? Well now it’s a bit more exciting.
What about $1 bet for a .002% chance at winning $1,000,000,000? That’s a great bet to take!
As much as we like to think of medical inventions as being altruistic inventions that are solely accomplished by the brilliant scientist in a lab - that’s not how it actually works.
The drug and therapy discovery and invention process is a beautiful dance between several parties. The universities and government providing foundational support and investment, the government evaluating the safety and effectiveness of the treatments, business people establishing companies to commercialize these inventions, and investors providing the financial support to fund the testing.
So how does this all relate to the $2-$3 million Sickle Cell Therapy treatments?
Thanks for sticking with me as I got to the point. While I can see how someone would look at a $3million treatment and be shocked and outraged - we need to keep in mind how many ATA188’s are out there. How many drugs were tested that never saw the light of day? How much money was spent on developing drugs that didn’t get approved?
We must keep that in mind when thinking of healthcare costs and drug costs. There is a delicate balance that needs to be struck for a healthy society. We don’t want our health care costs to run out of control and eat up our economy. But we also want to make sure that we keep incentivizing new invention and drug discovery.
In order to do this we need:
* scientists that are incentivized financially to keep inventing new treatments
* investors that are incentivized financially to keep investing in new treatments.
I firmly believe that we need both of these things in order to maximize our society’s ability to invent new medical breakthroughs. As much as we like to hope that our medical inventions are done by noble scientists that don’t care about money - that doesn’t seem to be the reality.
Some people argue that we need to remove the “profit motive” from healthcare in order to serve patients better. I can sympathize with this view because it makes emotional sense. You don’t, for instance, want someone deciding who lives or dies based on how much money they have. I totally understand that argument.
But when it comes to medical invention and discovery, the profit motive is a very important component in my mind. To me personally, I think the investors that risked $150,000,000 of their own money with the hopes that Atara would invent a cure for MS are heroes! They risked a lot of their own capital in hopes that it would help other humans. It didn’t work out this time and they lost all or most of their money.
But if that investment had worked out, for me personally, I would hope that every single investor in ATA188 would be rewarded for their risk by getting filthy rich. Not because they are “profiting off the sick” but because they were the ones that invested in making the sick healthy. And to me, that’s the kind of investments we should be rewarding as a society.
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Joe,
I apologize for posting this letter publicly. I know you’re a private guy. But I don’t have your new address.
Today marks two years since you left us and I have a lot of updates to share. But dude, I gotta confess, I was pretty angry at you for leaving the way you did. It kinda fucked me up.
Losing you sent me into a depression that was difficult to overcome. Hell, I still can’t listen to Jimmy Eat World songs without getting overwhelmed with emotion. You’ve kinda ruined that band for me.
And now, whenever I visit Detroit or Chicago, the experience feels somewhat lackluster. It's as if I'm perpetually on the outside, missing the rich, hidden layers of the city—those secret gems you once unveiled with your vast, encyclopedic knowledge of American urban greatness and history.
Two months ago I sold my stake in our chain of restaurants and that meant I had to dig through and archive decades of emails. I must have read 400+ emails between us going back 20+ years.
I was reminded of how your wit and charm always shined through even when writing emails.
You were one of the best storytellers I’ve ever known. Sometimes I wish you were here to give me feedback on this silly newsletter I write. I often wonder: “What would Shores think of this? How would he tell this story?”
Remember when we tried for 2 years to open a bar in Detroit?
You kept telling me: “Detroit is gonna come back. It is. We are getting in early.” I was skeptical. But, Boy o boy, were you right. Detroit is booming. It’s hard to get a hotel room or a reservation on some weekends. You nailed that!
But I’m not writing to complain about how you left us or reminisce about the amazing memories we had together.
I’m writing you to say Thank You, Joe.
No. That’s not right.
Thanks Shores! Or maybe even better, “Thank you, Shorsey Pop Pop!”
I’m not sure why I started calling you “Joe” only after you died. Grief does strange things to people.
But seriously, Thank You Shores.
Your passing marked a turning point in my life, a moment when the fragility of human existence became painfully clear. Yet, in the wake of sorrow, I discovered an unexpected gift: the capacity for change within myself.
To shake my grief I embarked on my “Year Of The Opposite.” - Kinda like Costanza. I know you’ll get the reference. Basically, all the things that I did before, I tried to do the opposite.
Remember how you used to urge me to travel more with you? Well, you were right. I’ve visited 50+ cities in the past 2 years.
Remember my “SPORTS!” t-shirt that I wore mockingly. Now I Golf, Run, Pickleball, workout, and am willing to play any sport I’m invited to. You were right about sports too.
Along the way, I even lost 60+ LBS! It was about time! I had really let myself go.
I made a bunch of crazy changes: ran 7 miles backwards, a marathon, swam across a lake, beat the BW3’s blazin wing challenge, flew a plane briefly, did a ride along with the police, school board member, cold plunge addict, and a bunch of other crazy things. You should subscribe to my newsletter so I can keep you updated. (Hey, you know I’m a marketing guy! Always Be Closing!)
But the biggest change you inspired in me was giving up alcohol. I always wondered why the booze didn’t get it’s hooks into me like it did you, I think I was just lucky. I’ve only had 35 occasions for celebratory drinks in the past 2 years. And honestly, the 35 times weren’t worth it. I may give it up for good.
When I look back, I’m embarrassed to admit how many of our amazing nights together revolved around alcohol. I felt really guilty that the substance that brought us together was the same substance that extinguished your bright flame. I’m sorry buddy.
Shores, you've shown me the interconnectedness of loss, growth, and gratitude in ways I never imagined.
Your impact stretches far beyond the life you lived, shaping my path in both big and small ways. With each change I've embraced, each new habit I've formed, and each moment of reflection I've experienced, I've drawn closer to the person your memory inspired me to be.
What initially felt like an insurmountable challenge has become a source of strength and motivation, pushing me to live a life filled with purpose, health, and happiness.
I want to engage with life in ways that honor your memory and the lessons that your loss has taught me.
So, thank you, Shores.
Thank you for the laughter and the lessons, for the moments shared and the impact made. Your legacy lives on, not just in memory but in the very fabric of my daily life and in the deepening of my connections with Wahl, Laur, Cookie, Paulie B, Paulie C, Cottone, Matty V, Benny V, Wiggs and all the Stoddard boys.
I wish I could have sent this message directly to you - but since it has to be public, maybe this homage will remind others of their own capacity for change. Maybe this can give one person hope that their lowest moments can reveal the best of their character.
Because in my darkest times, you've helped me seek out the light, and for that, I am eternally grateful.
With deep appreciation and lasting gratitude,
- Travy-pop.
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Sickle Cell Disease impacts about 100,000 people in the US every year. It’s an incredibly painful disease where the cells become misshapen like a crescent moon or a sickle. This shape causes the cells to get trapped and restrict the blood flood which causes chronic pain, organ damage, strokes, and shortened life expectancy.
Bone marrow transplant has been the best treatment for patients, but it was very challenging to find a potential donor. Only 15% of siblings are a suitable match to be a donor and the chances of finding a match in the general population is about 10%. This means that only about 25% of patients suffering with Sickle Cell Disease had an option for treatment.
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The FDA has now approved two new treatments, Casgevy and Lyfgenia.
“Both products are made from the patients’ own blood stem cells, which are modified, and are given back as a one-time, single-dose infusion as part of a hematopoietic (blood) stem cell transplant. Prior to treatment, a patients’ own stem cells are collected, and then the patient must undergo myeloablative conditioning (high-dose chemotherapy), a process that removes cells from the bone marrow so they can be replaced with the modified cells in Casgevy and Lyfgenia. Patients who received Casgevy or Lyfgenia will be followed in a long-term study to evaluate each product’s safety and effectiveness.” (Link to FDA release)
“bone marrow transplant was the first potential cure for sickle cell disease, but trying to find a good match for a transplant is a big barrier. This new technology uses gene therapy to allow patients to be their own match.” - Cece Calhoun, MD, MBA, a Yale Medicine hematologist-oncologist.
This is a huge advancement and this same type of gene therapy could be offering hope for other diseases in the near future.
But what about the cost?
Casgevy, the first CRISPR therapy approved by the FDA, will cost $2.2 million.
Lyfgenia the competing genetic medicine is priced at $3.1 million.
Those price points are hard to imagine. But let’s put some context around them..
Lets compare the cost of the new treatments versus the current standard of care. Insurance companies and the industry estimates the cost of managing sickle cell over a lifetime for someone with recurrent pain is between $4 - $6 million.
So $4-6 million for the current treatment vs $2-$3million for the new treatment.
How much did it cost to develop Casgevy? That has been a bit hard for me to track down exactly. Vertex (the maker of Casgevy) and CRISPR Therapeutics have an interesting development agreement where they split the cost and profits 60:40. Vertex made a $200,000,000 payment to CRISPR Therapeutics to cover some of the R&D expense as they crossed the milestone of getting FDA approval.
However, this doesn’t really represent the entire cost of creating Casgevy, because it relies upon the technology created with CRISPR itself. CRISPR alone has had more than $1billion in R&D expense in the past 3-4 years. So how much did it cost to develop Casgevy? It’s hard to know exactly, but well into the billions of dollars for sure.
So should Casgevy cost $2.2million per treatment? I don’t know. But it’s something we are going to have to think about as a society. On one hand, we want to be able to fund research and development that invents new technologies that could help hundreds of thousands of people every year. But we also don’t want a health care system that is so large that the budget eats into the entire US economy.
It’s going to be interesting to see how this plays out over the coming years. This isn’t the last drug that is going to cost millions of dollars to get.
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I’m currently reading ‘The Adventures of Tom Sawyer’ and ‘Letters from J.D. Rockefeller to his son’. Both books have me thinking a lot about childhood and parenting.
I will be 56 years old when Lane turns 18 and as an older father, my mortality is always on my mind. I know that despite my best efforts to improve my health, any of us could be taken at any time. I don’t want Lane to be fatherless.
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I recognize that this is a rather morbid topic to think about but death and change are life’s only certainties. Memento Mori.
It got me thinking about how I could support my child best if I were to pass prematurely. Of course that led to estate planning and establishing a financial trust to secure his economic future in my absence.
But what about the emotional hole and trauma left by the absence of his father?
Not that I am particularly special as an individual, but the role that I play as a father is a rather significant responsibility. I tried to think of ways that I could help fill that hole if god forbid I was not able to be present physically.
That was one of the reasons I wanted to write this newsletter. I am documenting my thoughts, feelings, and perspectives so that they will be available to my son in the future if he is ever curious.
But when the artificial intelligence Chat GPT was released - it represented a huge opportunity.
What if I leveraged artificial intelligence to craft a digital version of myself, enabling Lane to converse with his dad in the future, even in my absence?
By documenting my thinking with writing and recordings - I could build a database that could be used in the future to train an artificial intelligence to create a Virtual Travis Stoliker.
No, it wouldn’t be perfect. Yes, many people would think it’s creepy and scary. But why not try?
Let me show you an example of how this might work…
Go to Chat GPT and ask it to tell you a story in the style of your favorite author or musician. Give it instructions on what you would like the story to be about and watch the magic.
For instance, here is a story that I generated with Chat GPT that is about Lane in the style of Mark Twain:
In the quaint town of Haslett, Michigan, there lived a sprightly young lad named Lane Stoliker, whose mischief was only matched by his charm. With hair as golden as the midsummer cornfields and a grin that could outshine the Fourth of July fireworks, Lane was the embodiment of youthful exuberance. He had a knack for turning the mundane into the marvelous, finding adventure in every nook and cranny of his small town. The local folk often remarked that Lane had a certain twinkle in his eye, a spark that foretold tales of mischief and merriment.
One fine morning, Lane found himself on the banks of Lake Lansing, his pockets bulging with treasures of all sorts – smooth pebbles, colorful marbles, and the occasional lucky penny. As he skimmed stones across the glassy surface, he concocted grand plans of exploration and escapade. It wasn't long before a band of eager comrades gathered around him, drawn by the allure of adventure that seemed to dance around him like fireflies at dusk. With Lane at the helm, they set forth on a day filled with the sort of adventures that would make even Tom Sawyer tip his hat in respect. They were not merely children playing by the lake; they were valiant explorers, noble pirates, and intrepid treasure hunters, masters of their small but boundless world.
That’s pretty darn impressive to me! Give it a shot! If you do any of your own, please share them with me in the comments or in a reply to this email because I would love to read them.
So how does Chat GPT do that? Here is how Chat GPT explains how it works simply.
“Imagine if you had a super smart robot friend that has read almost every book, article, and website out there. When you ask it to write a story, like about Lane Stoliker, it remembers how famous authors like Mark Twain wrote their stories. It doesn't copy them, but it's like the robot has learned a recipe for making a "Mark Twain-style" cake. So, it mixes together words and ideas in a new way, but using that special recipe, to create a story that sounds a lot like something Mark Twain might have written. It's kind of like having a really, really big blender for words and ideas, and this robot knows just the right way to mix them!”
Pretty cool, huh?
So how do I make a Virtual Travis Stoliker? I have to write a lot of content and share a lot of my thoughts in my own words. I need to cover various topics and issues that Lane might have questions about in the future. Then Lane will be able to take that information and put it into an Artificial Intelligence system like Chat GPT to train a new model that mimics my thoughts and views on issues. Then Lane will be able to ask it questions and talk to me as if I’m still around.
That’s about as close to immortality as I can think of.
Will it be perfect? Of course not. Will it make mistakes and have limitations? Absolutely.
But I think it’s worth trying.
Most of my thoughts I will share publicly here on this newsletter. But some I will record privately with videos and audio recordings. I will answer questions of various topics in order to give the AI system enough data to be trained on to be as accurate of a representation of my beliefs as possible. Here are some of the questions that I am answering.
* How did you handle the first time that you had your heart broken?
* What is your fondest childhood memory?
* What role does spirituality play in your life?
* How did you select your romantic partner?
* What was it like to fall in love for the first time?
* What is something you are most embarrassed about?
* What was your proudest moment?
* What are your thoughts on money?
* Is there evil in the world?
* Who was the best person that you ever knew?
* How do you cope with grief?
If I take enough time to answer these questions thoughtfully and honestly, I think that Lane will be able to have a pretty decent understanding of who his father was, what I believed, my flaws, and I hope - a few of my successes. I also hope that Lane can use it as a friend to talk to and get advice from, of course, only if he chooses to.
Let me be clear, as I have said many times before, my goal is to live as long as possible and die quickly. I don’t want to go anywhere. But it’s always good to have a backup plan in case things don’t work out the way I had envisioned. It’s exactly why we have an estate plan and trust.
Wouldn’t you love to be able to talk to a friend or family member that has passed? I know that I sure would love to talk to my Grandpa Mike Brady right now. His fantastic stories always helped me through challenging times.
What do you think? Is this crazy? A good idea? Would you want to do something like this? If you could talk to someone from the past, who would it be? I want to hear from you. Reply to this email, comment below, fill out the poll, or call me anytime.
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I was honored that one of my readers asked for my assistance in evaluating the health claims made by products referred to as “Hormonal Teas”. The specific advertisement she referenced was from a company called “Avery Apothecary” and the product is “Goddess Tea Blend.”
The product makes several claims on their website:
“Ladies, enjoy a cup of this tea every day and the synergy of the plants help to restore and keep balance in your cycle. Regular health and hormone upkeep can help prevent issues in the future, can help to ease symptoms of PMS and any pain associated with your period. When you experience symptoms related to your cycle is not the time to fix the issues, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure! Enjoy this blend daily to support your hormones all cycle long.” (link)
The website does have a pretty large disclaimer on the page. Which on one hand, is reassuring that they are being transparent and honest about the limitations of the data supporting the claims. But on the other hand, doesn’t demonstrate a high level of confidence that the claims are supported by research. Here is the disclaimer:
“Disclaimer: These products have not been evaluated by the FDA. The information we provide is intended for educational purposes only and is not meant to represent or replace the advice of a medical professional or to diagnose, treat or cure any disease. It is the responsibility of the customer to test products for allergies before use of products. The ingredients are listed on each product and we do our best to eliminate cross contamination between products. Some people will have allergies to certain plants or botanicals so please test before use to ensure you do not have an allergy. Stop using immediately if an allergic reaction, redness or irritation occurs. We are not responsible for the misuse or reactions to our products. Usage is always at the buyer’s own risk. Please reach out to a professional for any possible contraindications and/or interactions with medications and be sure to inform your doctor about all herbal remedies or supplements you are taking.”
Let’s take a look at each of the claims independently and evaluate the research. The claims are pretty impressive:
* Helps to restore and maintain balance in the menstrual cycle.
* Supports regular health and hormone upkeep to prevent future issues.
* Aids in easing symptoms of PMS. Provides relief from any pain associated with menstruation.
* Continuous hormonal support throughout the menstrual cycle.
Let’s look at each claim independently.
* Helps to restore and maintain balance in the menstrual cycle:
* Marjoram tea showed beneficial effects on the hormonal profile of women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) by improving insulin sensitivity and reducing levels of adrenal androgens (Haj-Husein, Tukan, & Alkazaleh, 2016).
* However, this study was very small (25 individuals), it was only looking at patients with PCOS, and it was only a Pilot Study which requires further research.
* Chinese herbal medicine was found to improve menstrual rates in women with PCOS, suggesting potential benefits in menstrual cycle regulation (Lai et al., 2017).
* However, this is a small study (40) and once again it was only looking at patients with an existing medical condition. This was also a pilot study which requires further research.
* Supports regular health and hormone upkeep to prevent future issues.:
* This claim is too vague to be evaluated accurately with randomized controlled trials.
* Aids in easing symptoms of PMS. Provides relief from any pain associated with menstruation:
* Chamomile tea was effective in relieving pain related to primary dysmenorrhea (cramps or painful period) and its consequent psycho-social problems (Jenabi & Ebrahimzadeh, 2010).
* However, this was a very small (80) experimental study, that only asked participants to drink 2 cups of chamomile tea and report their PMS symptoms after 1 month.
* Ginger tea significantly reduced heavy menstrual bleeding among high school girls, providing relief from dysmenorrhea (Kashefi et al., 2015).
* This was probably the strongest of the studies that I found. It was well designed and it seemed to show a reduction in the menstrual bleeding of high school students. The participants were instructed to take 3 - 250mg tablets of ginger compared to the control group that was given a lactose pill. It did provide an improvement.
* Concerns: The participants were not exactly given a “hormonal tea” they were given a high dose pill amounting to about 750mg of ginger each day. Would you be able to ingest 750 mg of ginger to match this amount by drinking this hormonal tea? I’m not really sure but I’m a bit skeptical on that.
* Continuous hormonal support throughout the menstrual cycle:
* I wasn’t able to find any RCT' studies that examined this claim specifically.
Conclusion & Results
Do “Hormonal Teas” work? Maybe. There is some evidence that the individual ingredients contained in some hormonal teas could alleviate some of the pains, cramping, and heavy bleeding associated with PMS. However, the studies are small, many are pilot studies, and none of the studies evaluate the effectiveness of Hormonal Teas specifically. In most cases, they just look at the individual ingredients and they are often tested on individuals that already have a medical condition.
In my layman’s view, the jury is still out. If I was advising my wife or loved one on Hormonal Teas', I’d probably say:
“There is some evidence that the individual ingredients contained in some “Hormonal Teas'“ may help alleviate some of the symptoms of PMS, however there aren’t any studies that I could find that evaluate the claims of Hormonal Tea blends specifically. Since the products seem to be safe, if you enjoy drinking them, there doesn’t appear to be any harm in consuming them. However, I would stay away from any high priced premium products that make grandiose medical claims and I would try to buy the highest quality ingredients directly like ginger and chamomile. These ingredients were the ones specifically tested and they are fairly generic, fairly cheap, and did show some effectiveness in these limited studies. In summary, I would only drink these if you find some personal enjoyment and benefit from them. Not solely as a medical product.”
I was so incredibly honored that one of my readers trusted my research enough to ask me to evaluate these claims. Of course, as I always say, I’m not a doctor so don’t trust anything I say. Always check with your own research and your medical professionals.
If you have anything that you’d like me to research. Please reply to this email, comment below, text me, shoot me a phone call, or message me on Twitter.
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One of my first challenges in the Year Of The Opposite was the 40 degree cold plunge. Now, I'm addicted to it, not solely for the muscle recovery and numerous health benefits (which I'll cover in another post), but because of what it does for my brain, mood, and attitude.
Over the past year I have been increasing my tolerance up to a current maximum of 14 minutes in 40-42 degree water. But my regular routine is 5-7 minutes at the Michigan Athletic Club. I love it!
Here are some of the tips that I learned along the way that helped me get to 14 minutes.
Tips for lasting longer in the cold plunge:
* It’s a battle with your mind. Think of it as meditation.
Your mind will be telling you to get out. That’s natural. You need to remind yourself that you are capable of staying in a lot longer than you think. Your body will try to trick you into thinking that you are in physical danger. You’re not. You need to control your mind, not the other way around. So how do we do that?
* Slow down your breathing to decrease your heart rate.
Slowing down your breathing is a good way to calm your mind which in turn slows down your heart rate. If you focus on taking long and very deep breaths, you will slow your heart rate. Think of this as your meditation. Try to clear your mind and exclusively focus on your breathing. To do this, I would count my breaths. When I was able to slow my breaths to about 10 breaths per minute, my performance got better.
* Embrace the Roger Bannister Effect: Be confident & know you can achieve it.
Running a mile in under 4 minutes was thought to be impossible for humans until Roger Bannister did it in 1954. After Bannister accomplished this previously unthinkable task, a bunch of runners were able to do it almost immediately.
This is now called the Roger Bannister Effect. We humans put psychological barriers in our way. If our mind convinces us that something is impossible, our body won’t allow us to do it. But once we know it’s possible, we can do it and others can too.
To last longer in the cold plunge, you need to be convinced that you can do it, because you can! If your brain is sabotaging you by telling you “I can’t do this” “I’ll be lucky if I last 10 seconds!” - You’ll be right! But, if your brain is telling you, “Travis did this for 14 minutes so I’m sure I can do it for 15!” - You will surprise yourself! And since you’re doing this safely with a spotter, why not try to see just how long you can go?
* Go a Little Deeper
When you’re feeling like you want to get out or can’t take it any longer, go under the water another inch or two. This will expose new skin to the cold and it will immediately focus your mind on that new area. It will momentarily make you forget about the other areas of your body. This trick is very powerful for me. It works like magic.
* Protect Your Sensitive Bits
One or two areas on your body might be overly sensitive. For some people it’s their fingers, others toes, for some it’s their private parts. You’ll figure it out after your first few sessions. For me it’s my toes and privates. To protect my toes I keep my feet close together and curl my toes. I also keep my legs close together to protect my privates. This small act prevents my toes from going numb and allows me to double my total time.
* 1 Minute 30 Seconds Is Magic
I’m not sure why, but the 1 minute and 30 second mark seems to be magic for me. My brain gets clearer, my mood improves, I have no evidence to support this, but I even think my eyesight improves. (I will test this later) For me, if I can stay in for 1:30 seconds, I can usually make it to 5 minutes or more. Hitting the 1:30 mark makes a huge difference for me.
I am confident that by using these tips, you can dramatically increase your time in the cold plunge. I’ve tested these same strategies with over a dozen people and they have all increased their times past the 3 minute mark.
Be careful, start slow, have a spotter - but remember - you are in control, not your mind. What one person can do, another can too. If I can do 14 minutes. I’m certain you can do much more!
I want to hear from you! If you try any of these tips, please let me know. If you have any of your own tips, please share them. You can reply to this email, comment below, message me on Twitter or give me a call. I can’t wait to hear from you.
Disclaimers: I’m not a doctor. Consult your doctor to make sure this is right for you. Don’t push yourself too hard and always be safe. It’s a good idea to have a spotter.
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First: Thank You to all the new subscribers to my Newsletter. I appreciate you. Because we have so many new subscribers, today’s newsletter is going to be a bit different. I thought it would be appropriate to provide a bit of background on myself, explain what The Year Of The Opposite is, and let you know what kind of writing you should expect to receive from this newsletter.
Reminder: As a reminder, my name is Travis Stoliker and I was one of the Co-Owners of Saddleback BBQ & Slice by Saddleback. I just recently exited and handed off the restaurants to their founder, Matt Gillett. I’m now focused on writing this newsletter. Read this Business Insider article to learn more about the Year Of The Opposite.
Who is Travis Stoliker?
I'm Travis Stoliker, my journey started at Holt Public Schools, continued through LCC, and culminated at Northwood University. Today, I call Haslett home, enjoying life on Lake Lansing with my wife, Laken, who works for the Edward Lowe Foundation, and our lively 5-year-old son, Lane.
I believe deeply in the responsibility of community service. Currently, I serve as a trustee on the Haslett Board of Education and on the board of Ele's Place. My past contributions include the East Lansing Zoning Board of Appeals, East Lansing Info (A citizen journalism non-profit), and the board of the only angel investing organization in the area called the Capital Community Angels.
My hobbies include running, pickleball, golf, water skiing, boating, and hockey. My skill in each of these endeavours ranges from decent to downright terrible. Reading and writing are two of my most treasured pastimes.
My true passion, however, lies in the business world.
Where my friends follow sporting teams, I follow business. “Business is my sport” is a phrase I’m guilty of saying far too often.
Business started early for me. When I was about 12 years old, I ran a tiny hockey league and shared a paper route with my best friend, Matt Hill. During Highschool and College I learned a variety of skills by working at D&M Silk Screening, L&L Shoprite, Schneider Sheet Metal, and Big George’s Home Appliance Mart.
I graduated from LCC with an Associates degree in Applied Sciences, Media Technology (Audio & Video Recording). I worked at WILX as a production assistant where I helped broadcast the 5pm, 6pm and 11pm news. I worked in Master Control and ended up being elected as the UAW Union Steward for my department at WILX.
I was told at the time that I was the youngest UAW Union Steward, but I can’t confirm if this is true or not. We actually had to strike and successfully got our pay increased to $6.96 per hour. It was at that time that I knew I had to either move to a big city to make more money in this industry, or try a different trade.
I decided to try a different trade: Sales.
As an aside, I still firmly believe, everyone should have at least one sales job. Sales is a skill that you can use your entire life. I sold refrigerators, dishwashers, and $70,000 42-inch flat screen TV’s (Not kidding!) at Big George’s Home Appliance Mart and then I learned to sell Television Advertisements at Millenium Digital Media. I won’t go into the long details, but I got fired from both positions because one closed and the other got sold. This left me very disillusioned about working for companies.
I ended up securing an amazing job at one of the best employers in town, TechSmith. They taught me about everything from marketing to software development. I went from Salesman to Product Manager in a short while.
TechSmith provided me a lot of great experiences and memories. My first airplane ride was a flight for TechSmith. The first book that I loved reading, The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell, was for Techsmith. The reason I got a bachelor’s degree was because of TechSmith tuition reimbursement.
But the biggest thing that TechSmith taught me was the love for learning and growth. When I left the sales team and joined the Camtasia product team, Camtasia was the lowest sales product at TechSmith. In the short time I worked on it with my mentor Troy Stein, Camtasia became the highest sales product in the company that year. Watching that growth was like a drug for me. I loved it.
I learned at that moment what I was passionate about. I loved helping companies grow.
While at TechSmith, I had an idea for a product called “Project Streamer”. TechSmith didn’t want to develop it, so I reached out to my old friend, Matt Hill, who founded Liquid Web. As I recall, around this time, Liquid Web had about 10 employees and maybe a million in revenue. But I could be a bit off on those numbers because it was a long time ago. Liquid Wed ended up developing Project Streamer and this started the professional relationship between me, Matt Hill, and Chris Strandt.
Around this same time, I got it into my head that I should grow long hair and a long beard. My appearance got pretty out of control. Bill Hamilton, the founder of TechSmith, didn’t like my new look and he asked me to correct my appearance. In an act of youthful arrogance, I refused, and nearly lost my job.
To my good fortune, around this same time - Matt Hill was thinking about growing Liquid Web and starting the first sales and marketing efforts at the company. Because of our successful partnership on Project Streamer, Matt asked me if I would join Liquid Web. Liquid Web was quite a bit smaller than TechSmith at the time, and I was nervous about making the change to a smaller less well established company. After serious debate and negotiating my salary over Jager Bomb shots at Harpers, I accepted the position and was excited about the opportunity to grow Liquid Web with Matt and Chris. And I’m sure glad I did.
The next ~10 years at Liquid Web were incredible. We were growing revenue every year, building more data centers, and hiring new employees at an insanely fast rate. As I recall, but I could be wrong, I think we were an Inc5000 fastest growing company in America for the next 8 years in a row, which I believe is a pretty rare accomplishment.
We grew to 480+ employees, 3 data centers in Lansing, a data center in Amsterdam, one in Arizona, and an office in Ann Arbor. We grew sales to ~$80million in annual recurring revenue and we successfully sold the company to private equity for $224million in 2015. It was an absolutely amazing run and it was incredibly fun.
Matt Hill, as the founder and main equity holder, received the vast majority of the money, as he deserved. And I was fortunate because as a phantom equity holder, I received a significant amount of money from the sale. I consider myself very fortunate. In a future post, I will detail how phantom equity works and the advantages/disadvantages.
Also in 2015, I was fortunate enough that Matt Gillett asked me to invest capital to help start Saddleback. Many of you already know that story but some of the things I’m most proud of are that we expanded to four profitable locations with presences in Spartan Stadium and the Breslin Center. We launched a line of BBQ Sauces & Rubs that grace the shelves of major retailers. Food Network named Our Rib Sandwich one of the Best Sandwiches in America. Mental Floss Magazine honored us as the Best BBQ in Michigan. We were recognized with awards like the Michigan 50 Companies to Watch, SBDC Small Business of the Year, and the Greater Lansing Business of the Year.
But what I’m most proud of is that Saddleback remained profitable for all 8.5 years and our community engagement was a cornerstone of our success. We donated thousands of meals to those in need, cleared student lunch debt at local school districts, assisted during natural disasters, offer a 401k to our employees, and we were among the first companies to try pay transparency.
I feel incredibly fortunate to have been a part of some of my favorite organizations in the Lansing area. From School Board, to Ele’s Place, from WILX to TechSmith, from to Liquid Web to Saddleback - I feel incredibly blessed to have made small contributions in a diverse set of industries.
Life has its interesting moments too.
This year to my surprise the local Kiwanis club awarded me their Citizen Of The Year Award. And in 2016, I was humorously named the 2nd best Uber driver in Lansing after completing just one ride. And in 1997, I survived a scary incident when an ice skate cut my throat during a hockey game. (Video Below)
This is the bullet point version of who I am focusing mostly on my professional experience. It feels a bit boastful talking about all this and I’m certain that I got some of the dates and details wrong but I made my best effort to be as accurate as possible. I provide this background because I think it’s important that you have a greater context about the perspective with which I view the world. Rest assured, this is not the traditional format for these posts.
So that leads to the big question:
What is The Year Of The Opposite?
The Year Of The Opposite was a personal challenge that I set for myself in 2022 to change my life by doing the opposite of what I had done before. In February of 2022, one of my best friends died and two more would die over the next 5 months. It plunged me into a depression that I had never experienced before and one that couldn’t seem to escape.
So in the spirit of the old quote “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results”. I wanted to try to shake things up, I embarked on a journey of doing the opposite of what I had always done. It was inspired by the Seinfeld episode, The Opposite. If what I was doing wasn’t working, doing the opposite should fix it.
For example: instead of sleeping in, I’d wake up early and make the bed. I’d start working out, I gave up drinking alcohol, I started playing sports, I grew a mustache - Essentially, I would do the opposite of what I had done before and my hope was that it would reverse my depression. And thankfully, it worked! But it did much more than just cure my depression.
The Year Of The Opposite led me to lose 62 pounds, run barefoot for 7 miles, undertake a 14-minute cold plunge in 42-degree water, swim about a mile across a lake, complete a half and full marathon, run 1,000 miles in a year, learn to hold my breath for 2 minutes and 43 seconds, and conquer spicy foods by completing the blazing wings and Hot Ones Challenges.
But most importantly, I cured my depression and I reversed several of my health conditions. After about 6 months of doing the opposite, my doctors cleared me to stop taking medications for high blood pressure, cholesterol, and triglycerides. This was a goal that I never thought would be possible.
My personal Year Of The Opposite radically and profoundly changed my life in a positive direction. At the conclusion of the first year in March of 2023, I had a decision to make. Should I keep doing the Year Of The Opposite, or should I go back to my old ways?
The answer was obvious: On every metric, my life was far better during the Year of The Opposite. I decided that I would keep the opposite going and I needed a new challenge. I decided to launch the Year Of The Opposite Newsletter and Podcast that you are now reading/listening to in hopes that sharing my story might inspire others.
I deeply thank you for following, subscribing, listening or reading. It means the world to me.
What Should You Expect to Receive in this Newsletter?
My writing tends to focus on Technology, Business, Marketing, and interviews with people that I find fascinating. But the biggest thing that I try to focus on is positivity. I try to find good news and positive stories from around the world to share. My goal is to be a living example that it is possible to change your life if you wish to. If you have any suggestions for topics that I should cover, please just comment below or reply back to this email.
Here are some of the most popular posts on the Year Of The Opposite so far this year:
* Introduction to The Year Of The Opposite - What is The Year Of The Opposite? What have I achieved in my Year Of The Opposite? (Sep 12, 2023)
* Podcast Interview with Michelle Rogers - Surviving the Unthinkable: Michelle Rogers on Matthew Terry's Brutality and the Deadly Consequences of His Early Release from prison. My former co-worker, Matthew Terry, stabbed her 7 times yet somehow Michigan let him out of prison after only 3 years. Tragically, within 5 months of his release, he killed his new girlfriend.
* The Claude McCollum Wrongful Conviction with Judge Hugh Clarke Jr.
The murder of an LCC professor in 2005 sends the wrong man to jail. The uncaught murderer goes on to kill 5 more while the wrong man is in prison. My interview with Judge Hugh Clarke Jr.
* Clearing Up The Rumors: The Real Story of How Matthew Hill from Liquid Web Died (Jul 13, 2023)
* Using Artificial Intelligence to Generate Your New Year's Resolutions, Complete a 360 Review, & Change Your Life - A Step By Step Guide (Dec 18, 2023)
* Ozempic & Wegovy Side Effects. Miracle Weight Loss Drugs, but be Very Careful (Dec 13, 2023)
* I'm Increasing My Offer - You'll be happier in 7 days or I'll pay you $500 (Dec 9, 2023)
* How I Lost 62 lbs & built a habit of working out everyday. (April 14, 2023)
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You may have already seen the news that I have sold all of my shares in Saddleback BBQ, Slice By Saddleback, all of our properties, and the LLC’s to Co-Owner, Matt Gillett.
It’s been a long process and I have a lot of mixed feelings about the sale that I’m still trying to process. On one hand, I’m super proud of what we have achieved and that the businesses are in a place where they can be fully handed off to Matt. On the other hand, I will miss regularly interacting with all of our customers and colleagues.
Even though this process has been a long time in the making and it’s a very amicable separation, I still feel a bit of stress and anxiety about the transition. A lot of my identity was wrapped up in being the owner of a local small business that people cared about.
I feel a bit like I did after the sale of Liquid Web. The business just keeps moving forward without me. Never missing a beat. I suppose that makes me feel a bit of joy and a bit of sadness. But the only thing constant in life is change and change is what stimulates growth. Change is a necessary part of improving and getting better.
In the next few weeks, I’ll have a lot more to share about my experience owning profitable restaurants for 8+ years. But for now, here is my full letter announcing the sale to customers.
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My Letter: Matt Gillett is now the sole owner of Saddleback & Slice!
Hi from Travis, The only thing crazier than starting a restaurant may be investing in one. And my investment in Saddleback only happened because of incredible timing.
Saddleback was my first investment after selling LiquidWeb. Because of that sale, I had a non-compete that somewhat limited my ability to work for a year. So with that time, I wanted to see if I could provide a little help to the local economy by investing in small businesses that traditionally had trouble getting financed.
At this time I was also engaged to be married and my fiance Laken suggested that we hire our long time friend, Matt Gillett’s, new catering company for our wedding. It made perfect sense.
As a part of that discussion with Matt, he mentioned that his dream was bigger than the catering company and that he wished to open a restaurant. Since I was looking for investments, the timing was incredible… But I told him a few things:
* This is a bad idea. Restaurants are too hard and don’t make money.
* I know nothing about food or restaurants and I never want to be in the food business.
* I have 3 rules of investing: No restaurants, no bars, & nothing you don’t understand.
So of course, we decided to break all the rules and make the investment.
I explained my rationale for breaking all my investment rules to Matt. We are making this investment in YOU. We want to give you a little push of support to help you chase your dream. I made it clear: we have no interest in owning a restaurant longterm. Success for the Stoliker family was defined as: Matt Gillett being a successful entrepreneur with a growing and thriving business that provides for his family, provides for the growth of his employees, and positively serves the community.
Matt Gillett has achieved all of those goals beyond my wildest dreams and that is why it is time for Matt to fully take the reins.
Saddleback’s success wasn’t due to luck, or hope, or even my investment and help. No, Matt Gillett made his own luck. He willed the success to happen. Simply put, he worked harder than anyone.
I got to see Matt work 12 hour days 14 days in a row. I saw him cover an overnight smoker shift when employees called in sick after he had already worked a 12 hour shift! I saw him drive across town in the middle of the night to bail employees out of jail. Seen him leave his own family on holidays to personally make and deliver holiday meals for other families in the community. I saw him film a promo video for Saddleback from the hospital just a moment after his 3rd child was born!
I’m not saying all of this to “glamorize hustle culture” or imply that other people don’t also make sacrifices. I’m saying it because it’s true and I witnessed it first hand. Matt lived by the motto: This will not fail. I won’t let it.
Matt and I are still close friends and the business brought us closer. We have been through incredibly difficult lows together, both personally and professionally, and we have been through the highest of highs. It’s been an incredible journey together.
Highlights for me include: Being profitable every year in existence in a notoriously unprofitable industry. Winning Best BBQ in Michigan, Small Business of the Year, & Michigan 50 Companies to watch. But Saddleback became more than just a restaurant. We were able to use it as a platform to help other local small businesses, serve people in need, educate the community, demonstrate alternative transparent pay systems, be an example for how restaurants can provide employee retirement programs, and an occasional funny post. Those were some of my personal favorites!
For the past year or more, Matt and I have built an exceptional management team and they have already taken over all of my (Travis) responsibilities. For 6 months or more, the team has done my (Travis) job better than I could have done it myself. They are the best of the best and I thank them. Our customers & employees will remain in good hands.
I want to make it clear: while I will no longer be an owner of Saddleback & Slice, my commitment to Matt Gillett, our team, and their success remains steadfast. I'm stepping back not to distance myself, but to see these ventures thrive further. This is a planned evolution. I'm always here for Matt and our team, ready to assist whenever needed.
To all small business owners: my mission is to support entrepreneurs tirelessly. You're not alone; I'm just a call or email away, always ready to lend a hand. I will continue to invest in and help any local small business owners that need help. Please reach out if you need anything.
So what is next for me?
Last year I started a newsletter and podcast called “The Year Of The Opposite” and it’s completely free.
I hope you will subscribe to my newsletter. This week I plan to share some of my favorite stories about the Saddleback journey, business lessons, how to succeed in the restaurant business, and why most restaurants fail. I’ll also be sharing my personal Thank You’s to all of you that helped make Saddleback a success. There were too many to list here.
Please consider subscribing for free to “The Year Of The Opposite Newsletter & Podcast.”
The goal of my newsletter/podcast is to share my personal stories and experiences in hopes that I might make readers a little happier and maybe even a little richer.
I know, lofty goals Mr. Stoliker!
Well, no one ever said that I lacked confidence. ;)
Sincerely,
Travis Stoliker
Former Co-Owner of Saddleback
Owner of “Year Of The Opposite”
— Letter from Matt Gillett —
In July of 2014, I went through the process of founding Saddleback Barbecue. Early spring of 2015, I brought on Travis Stoliker as my business partner and we opened one the best restaurants in the Lansing Area, Saddleback Barbecue. I am mixed with emotion to bring the news that as of 12/27/2023, I will be Sole owner of Saddleback Barbecue and Slice by Saddleback.
Travis has taught me so much and supported me through this journey and for that I can never thank him enough. Together we have started four restaurants, two concession stands at the Breslin Center and Spartan Stadium, have a successful retail product line, and one of the best catering companies in the area. Our web presence is unmatched and because of it we have grown to be a household brand in the Lansing Area. Both of which I would credit Travis. Words such as, systems, processes, scale and communication are constantly brought up at Saddleback. Travis is the one who really showed the importance of those in a small business.
As we move forward Saddleback will continue to focus on being a leader in the industry. Our Mission is to strive for culinary excellence by embracing hard work, teamwork and a relentless commitment to improve. We want to push the boundaries of food and service where others won't. I am very excited for this next step and can't wait to show everyone what is to come.
I want to thank Travis for all of his time, dedication and hard work that he has shown Saddleback. I don't think there is a piece of the company that he has not impacted positively in some way.
From all present and past Saddleback personnel, Thank You Travis! Saddleback wouldn't be what it is today without you.
~Matt Gillett
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This has been one of the most impactful processes that I have used to improve my mental heath, build deeper relationships, and accomplish my personal and professional goals.
This is a free step by step guide on how to complete a 360 degree review of your strengths and weaknesses and use the power of artificial intelligence to synthesize the data to produce an actionable list of 10 New Year’s resolutions.
These resolutions are then turned into 5 simple tasks/habits to improve your life.
When implemented, these simple daily habits will dramatically improve your life, happiness, and success. These habits compound on each other and within a few months you will see a dramatic improvement on every measurement that you set out to improve. I guarantee it.
Year Of The Opposite - Travis Stoliker's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Here are the steps that I take and the templates that you can use to improve your life.
* Identify the 10-50 people in your life that you trust to give you feedback about your performance over the past year. These can be friends, family, co-workers, investors, partners - anyone that you have a relationship with that can help you improve. Make sure to include a few people that may be critical of you.
* Call, email, or send a text message to each of them asking if they would be willing to participate in an anonymous 360 review of your performance by completing a short 8 question form. Only select people that take it seriously and are willing to help. Some people will think it’s silly. That’s okay, ignore them.
* Note: Some people may not want to do an online form, that’s fine, ask them the questions over the phone or in person and document their responses in the spreadsheet yourself.
* Access this spreadsheet and “Make a copy” by going to “File” > “Make a Copy”.
* To access the form, just go to: Tools > Manage Form > Edit Form.
* Next, send each of the people that agreed to review you a copy of the form that you just created. (Steps below)
* Follow these 4 steps to copy a link to the form and send it:
* The simple questions on the form are:
* What is your relationship to me?
* In your opinion, have I improved in 2023 from 2022? How so?*
* What am I doing well?*
* What could I be doing better?*
* What do you need from me?
* What should I stop doing?
* What should I start doing or do more of?
* Any other feedback you have for me?
* Tip: Don’t look at the responses as they come in. Wait until everyone has responded. This keeps it more anonymous.
* Follow up with everyone 2 days later: Ask them if they have completed the form? Remind them how important it is to you and that you appreciate their help.
* Optional: follow up again in a couple days. (People forget!)
First, Why Are We Doing This? What is the Goal? What is NOT the goal?
The goal of this process is to find areas where we can improve ourselves so that we can be happier, healthier, more productive, have better relationships with our friends, and build better relationships with our family.
I’m going to tell you right now, you’re going to hear a LOT of great things about yourself and that feels amazing. But this is NOT the goal and we must make sure to not get high on our own supply.
Remember, these are mostly our friends and family that are giving us feedback. They will be biased towards saying nice and positive things about us - sometimes - even when they don’t believe them.
You must constantly guard against inflating your ego and self importance. Move past the praise and look for the areas that you can improve.
And if you selected the right people for this, you’re also going to hear some really critical and negative things about your behavior. This is the goal.
But when you read the criticism, the goal is not to shatter your self esteem, get you down in the dumps, or make you think you’re worthless. Far from it!
The simple fact that you are doing this process means that you are in the top 1% of people that are self aware and looking to improve themselves. Do NOT focus on the negative for too long.
Don’t build an enemies list of people that are disloyal to you because of what you read here. Remember, you ASKED for this feedback. You need to use it as fuel to improve, not as a lead anchor around your neck, or worse, lead bullets in your weapon to attack your new enemies. That is NOT the goal of this process.
I’ll share some strategies for how to use the criticism as rocket fuel below.
Time to Review Your Feedback
You can access the feedback in a few ways. If you go back to the form you can see “Summary” and “Individual” feedback. Or you can click “Link to Sheets” if you would like to view it as a spreadsheet.
Steps you can take the read this feedback successfully without becoming defensive:
* Don’t try to guess who gave you the feedback. It doesn’t matter.
* Don’t dwell on on any individual responses. Read the feedback and moveon to the next one. Especially high praise and brutal criticism.
* Instead, look for patterns in the feedback. If something comes up multiple times, give it more weight than things that are only mentioned once. Repeated feedback might be telling you something.
* Remember, you’re never as good as people say you are, and you’re never as bad as your critics say you are. Be leary of high praise and of brutal criticism.
* The biggest thing to look for are criticisms that hit you like a harpoon to the chest. When someone says something critical about you that deeply resonates with what you are feeling about yourself - that is the feedback to focus on. This feedback is aligning with what you know personally and is being validated by multiple outside sources. This is the area where I think you will get the most benefit from focusing on improvement.
Using Artificial Intelligence to Summarize The Feedback
*Security note, you will be uploading information into ChatGPT. This could make people uncomfortable. It doesn’t concern me but if you do have concerns, don’t do it.
Now that you have read all of the feedback individually, it’s time to use Artificial Intelligence to summarize it and give you the highlights.
* In the form, click the button “View in Sheets”
* Each column will represent everyone’s answers to each of the questions.
* Go to Chat GPT https://chat.openai.com/
* IMPORTANT NOTE: Make sure to do ALL of this within one chat window in Chat GPT. Don’t create new chat windows.
* Paste this prompt into Chat GPT:
* I am completing a 360 review of myself and my performance. I have asked friends, family, co-workers and business partners to answer multiple questions about me. Chat GPT, I would like you to work as a counselor to fairly and dispassionately review all of the individual feedback and synthesis it into a 2 to 3 paragraph summary about each of the questions that I asked. I would also like you to retain all of this information so that I can ask you questions about it. After this chat, I will be copy and pasting the data from the spreadsheet one question at a time. The first cell will be the question that I asked, then the following cells will be the individual responses from each of the people that I asked to fill out the form. Please confirm that you understand and then let me know that you are ready for me to copy and paste the information into the next chat dialog box.
* From the Google Sheet that contains all the answers to the questions, copy and paste the question and all of the answers to the questions directly into Chat GPT and submit them. Remember to grab ALL the feedback to that question. Not just one at a time. B1:B25 for instance.
* Read the result in Chat GPT.
* Authors note: Wasn’t the response insanely accurate???? It blew me away at how well Chat GPT was able to summarize me based off the aggregate information from my friends and family.
* Review the information from Chat GPT. Then copy and paste that information into a new cell at the bottom of your spreadsheet. This will give you a summary of each question and response within the Google Sheet.
* Next, Write this prompt to Chat GPT to get ready for the answers to the next question:
* Thank you. That was perfect. Are you ready to do the the exact same thing for the next question? I will past it after you confirm you are ready.
* Paste in the next question and all the responses.
* Read the summary, then copy and paste it into the end of your spreadsheet.
* Repeat this same process for all of the remaining questions.
Now let’s get a summary of how you are doing
Use this prompt in Chat GPT within the same conversation window that contains all this information:
* Chat GPT prompt:
* Ignore all of the summaries that you have made. Only look at the information that I have copied and pasted directly from my 360 review. Look at all of them and synthesis all of the information and create a 6 paragraph summary and analysis of how I am doing and where I can improve. When possible, use direct quotes from some of the feedback that I was given. When possible, use real examples from the information I was given. Focus on the things that were mentioned multiple times as recurring themes.
* This will generate a very helpful short summary of all the information in narrative form. You may want to save this somewhere.
Using Chat GPT and AI to Generate Your 10 New Year’s Resolutions
Using all the information that Chat GPT now has, use this prompt to generate your 10 New Year’s Resolutions:
* Chat GPT Prompt:
* Based off of all of the information contained within this entire chat, I wish to generate a bulleted list of 10 New Year’s resolutions. Also include a short paragraph about each that emphasizes why this is important using specific examples from above, direct quotes when possible, and explain how these resolutions will improve my life. Make sure to use ALL of the information from all of the chats above and all of the feedback that was provided.
* Save these New Year’s resolutions for yourself.
* Time for self reflection based on this data:
* Which resolutions do you agree with?
* Which resolutions do you disagree with?
* Do you wish to change or modify any of the resolutions or add any new ones?
* You can change and modify the New Year’s Resolutions. Simply reply to Chat GPT with the new information and you can edit and modify them to create the final version that you prefer.
Turning your 10 New Year’s Resolutions Into Actionable Habits
New Year’s resolutions and Goals are kinda BS in my mind. They are too lofty and it’s too hard to see the results every single day. What is much better is generating daily/weekly/monthly habits. As they say: “Show Me Your Habits and I'll Show You Your Future.”
So now that we have the lofty “New Year’s Resolutions list” - Let’s generate the daily habits that can get you there. Here is how we use Chat GPT to do that.
* Prompt for Chat GPT:
* Based off of this new year’s resolution list, I would like you to generate daily/weekly habits that I can develop that will align with my goals. I want your help in changing my daily practices so that they align with my long term goals. Please examine my new year’s resolutions, and all the feedback from all of the chats above and create 5 habits that I should start immediately that will help me to achieve my lifelong goals.
REMEMBER!
You do NOT need to accept or agree with all the feedback that is given to you. It is important that you process and filter the feedback based upon your own goals and values. Not all feedback is created equally. Don’t live your life based off of someone else’s ideas of what you should be doing. This is to be used as a tool to recognize blind spots and opportunities for you to expand your thinking. You must always process this information through your own filter.
That’s it! Here is what you have accomplished with this process:
* You have solicited feedback from your loved ones which shows them you care about their feedback and value them.
* You have gained important insights about what you did well and what you can improve on.
* You have thought hard and deeply about what you want to accomplish over the next year.
* You have turned your new year’s resolutions into actionable habit’s that you can implement tomorrow and that can change and improve your life overtime.
If you enjoyed this process or got any value out of it, I would greatly appreciate if you would let me know by replying to this email, sharing it with a friend, or posting it to social media. It would mean a lot to me.
Thank you and here is to a great new year!
With Love from Travis Stoliker.
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Summary (The TLDR)
* Alarming data is coming in: Some patients on Wegovy & Ozempic are seeing 50% to 60% of their weight loss come from lean tissue. (muscle). Patients may be getting lighter on the scale but increasing their body fat percentage. This is concerning. (One study here)
* As a comparison, when losing weight naturally, it is typical that about 25% of your weight loss will come from lean tissue and muscle mass.
* But, there is a SOLUTION! To combat this, patients taking these drugs need to strength train and eat a high protein diet. This will help retain and build lean tissues, muscle mass, connective tissue, & retain bone density.
* Wegovy & Ozempic are miracle drugs for fast weight loss. Some patients are losing up to 60lbs in 6 months. But there are real risks to be aware of.
* If you take these drugs and don’t change your diet & lifestyle, you will be forced to keep injecting & paying for them forever.
* If you ever stop them in the future without lifestyle changes, you’ll gain all the weight back & possibly a lot more. I explain why below.
* It is worth noting: The drugmaker behind Ozempic & Wegovy disclosed paying health care providers in the US over $25,000,000 over the past decade to promote these drugs. It paid $1,400,000 to one doctor alone*.
* Disclosure: I am an investor in the maker of these drugs, Novo Nordisk. I’m very excited by the results of these drugs but I’m growing increasingly concerned about what I’m observing in my friends that are using them and the mounting evidence about their side effects.
Year Of The Opposite - Travis Stoliker's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Full Article: I’m Concerned about Wegovy & Ozempic. Here is How Patients Can Protect Themselves
Ozempic is everywhere. Not since Viagra & Botox has a drug become so popular so quickly. You’ve probably heard of a friend taking it, seen a commercial, or heard of a celebrity talking about “Ozempic Face”. ("Ozempic face" refers to a condition where facial skin may sag and appear aged following the use of these drugs. This effect is likely attributed to the loss of lean tissue, a topic we will explore in detail.)
The technical name for these drugs are “GLP-1 receptor agonists” and they go by the names like Semaglutide, Wegovy, Ozempic, and a few others.
It’s understandable why they have grown so quickly. They work incredibly well, and globally approximately 1-3 billion people are overweight or obese (depending upon which statistic you trust). This is a tragedy and it leads to many long term negative health consequences.
What troubles me most about that statistic is that obesity rates in children have skyrocketed. Approximately 300-600 million kids are overweight or obese (depending upon which statistic you trust). This is quite concerning.
Safety of these drugs becomes even more important due to these two factors.
* The fast and widespread adoption of them and
* the fact that they were recently approved as a treatment for children.
Before we begin, the first two questions that people ask me when we talk about this topic are:
* Did you use these drugs to lose the 62lbs?
* No. I did not use any medications to lose the weight. But I’m not against these drugs. I just personally didn’t want to be on any medications anymore.
* Are you an investor?
* Yes. I invested in Novo Nordisk before the popularity of these drugs exploded. So it’s fair to judge my writing with a skeptical eye.
These drugs have exploded in the past few months. It’s likely that one of your friends or family members are taking them and I hope you will share this article with them without any judgement or condescension.
“Ozempic and Wegovy brought in $4.8 billion of sales during just the third quarter of 2023, and the drugs account for 52% of Novo Nordisk's $23.6 billion of total revenue through the first nine months.”
It’s understandable why these drug are so popular when considering their incredible results. For example, some people that have struggled with weight loss have been able to achieve truly remarkable weight loss. Some have lost 60lbs in 6 months! That is a tremendous amount of weight loss in a short amount of time.
How does Ozempic & Wegovy work?
In plain english, these drugs help you feel fuller, faster, and for a longer amount of time after eating. Therefore you eat less and lose a heck of a lot of weight quickly.
The scientific reason these drugs work: They function as a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist. They work by enhancing the body's ability to produce insulin, the hormone that regulates blood sugar, in response to high blood glucose levels. These drugs slow down gastric emptying, which contributes to a decrease in appetite and potential weight loss. This dual action makes it effective in managing Type 2 diabetes and, as a secondary effect, aids in weight management.
While these drugs are a miracle for diabetes and weight management, as with all things, they are not without their risks.
But on the positive side, there are simple steps that you can take to mitigate and potentially avoid some of the negative pitfalls.
An immediate potential side effects is nausea and vomiting. This is pretty commonly reported and disclosed to potential patients by healthcare providers very well. So we don’t need to cover it here.
There is another less common concern. Some recent studies suggest a connection between these drugs and an increase in diabetic retinopathy (DR), a severe eye problem that can lead to blindness in diabetics. It's a bit unexpected, but there's a known issue where treatments that quickly lower blood sugar can actually make DR worse. This isn’t extremely common but is still something to be aware of.
The Bigger Concern for me is Lean Tissue Loss or Losing Muscle Mass
Patients need to be aware of the amount of muscle mass that you may lose by taking these drugs if you don’t take preventative steps proactively.
When losing weight without the assistance of medication, it is expected that about 25% of the weight loss will come from your lean tissue like muscle mass. This would be typical especially when losing weight quickly.
In general, with weight loss, as the old adage goes: “Abs are made in the kitchen”. It’s not so much your work-out routine that will help you lose weight. The biggest impact, in most cases, is reducing the calories that you eat.
If you eat less, you’re going to lose fat, but sadly, you’re also going to lose some muscle and lean tissue. This is expected.
When weight loss occurs naturally, it primarily involves the reduction in the size of the fat cells.
What is concerning is that some patients on Wegovy & Ozempic are seeing that 30% to 60% of their weight loss is coming from their lean tissue like muscle. Patients are getting lighter on the scale but their body composition is actually become fatter sadly. (Studies here, here, & here.)
This is very concerning and requires further investigation.
It’s not perfectly clear why this lean tissue loss is happening but some doctors suspect that it is probably due to an unhealthy diet that doesn’t include enough protein and lack of physical exercise and strength training.
I think it is especially important to highlight these concerns now in light of the fact that it is advertised everywhere, that medical professionals have been paid millions of dollars to promote them*, because they are now approved for use in children, and that these drugs are the fastest growing drugs since Viagra and Botox.
I’m also concerned about this personally because several of my friends are taking these drugs with remarkable success but they are completely unaware of the risks to their lean muscle tissue. My hope is that this article may help them in some small way.
To be clear: *I mention the payment to doctors simply as a data point. It is not to imply in anyway that there is a conspiracy or corruption in the system. It just means that there is an incentive and incentives can be powerful in some cases.
But not to fear, there is good news! If you take the following steps, you can significantly mitigate these issues.
Patients using these drugs should make sure to pair them with a high-protein diet and strength training to maintain their muscle mass, retain connective tissue, and retain bone density.
A good rule is to eat about your original body weight in grams of protein per day. So if you started at 200lbs, eat about 200 grams of protein per day even as you lose the weight. This is very general but I like to keep the math super simple.
When it comes to weight training, you just need to make sure you’re pushing your muscles to their limit. Walking won’t cut it here. But you don’t need a gym membership either. You can do body weight exercises that will help like wall sits, push ups, crunches, lunges, jumping jacks, and plank as some examples. Of course, weights would be better. But we don’t strive for perfection here. We strive for the simple things that give most of the results.
Why is this so important? Because for one, we don’t just want to weigh less on the scale and still have the same amount of fat in the body. We want to have less total fat within our body. It’s the fat in the body that can cause our health problems, not just the weight on the scale. The goal should be to “increase the body’s overall proportion of lean mass – in other words, to improve body composition.”
The other issue is that if you lose your lean tissue like muscle, connective tissue, and bone density - you will be more fragile. This will make you more at risk for getting hurt, less likely to live a long time, and there is another big concern that could show up in the future if you were to ever stop taking these medications.
Your lean muscle tissue consumes a lot of your calories. In general, the same person with a lot of muscle mass will be able to consume and process more calories than someone with less muscle mass and lean tissue.
So, if you're losing significant lean muscle tissue, your body typically burns fewer calories. And as we all know, excess calories that the body can't utilize are generally converted into fat.
To say this again, essentially, if your lean tissue like muscle goes away and you keep eating the same number of calories, your body won’t consume as many calories, so the extra calories will end up getting turned into fat.
This is especially concerning if you stop taking these medications in the future. Your appetite will come back immediately, you will start eating more, and since you have less lean tissue & muscle mass - you will put on a lot more weight than you had before you started these drugs.
This gives patients using these drugs two options in my view.
* Either you will need to continue taking these medications forever.
* Or, you will need to adjust your lifestyle, eating, and physical activity so that you can retain the amazing weight loss that these drugs helped you to achieve.
In conclusion, GLP1 medications like Ozempic and Wegovy are incredible, but they are not a long-term fix for obesity or poor metabolic health for most people. Real, lasting health improvements come from changing behaviors and lifestyles. This means eating a diet that's good for your metabolism and staying active.
There's growing concern that these drugs have side effects that need more research, like reducing muscle mass significantly and potentially leading to weight gain when you stop taking them. While they help in reducing how much you eat, they don't ensure you're eating healthy, high-quality foods, which is key for your body's best metabolic health.
Doctors and patients should think very carefully when choosing these drugs. Safe, proven methods like a healthy diet and exercise should always be the first choices for weight loss and metabolic health.
Thank you to Dr. Peter Attia for being one of the first doctors to notice this potential issue and alerting others to the problems. I highly recommend his book, Outlive.
Of course, all the standard disclaimers apply. I’m not a doctor. I’m just an idiot on the internet. Never take my word for anything and always talk to your doctor first.
I want to hear from you! Are you taking these drugs? What have been your results? Does this ring true for you or am I completely off base? I love hearing from you!
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No one took me up on my offer last week. Lets try again.
As you may recall, last week I made the offer that “I will improve your winter blues in 7 days, or I'll pay you $50.” I was nervous because I was risking $23,000 of my own money and trying to have some “skin in the game” as they say.
It started off strong with four people saying that they wanted to do it, but unfortunately, no one made it after just the first day.
I’m so confident that this will make anyone happier and I’m so concerned about how many of my friends are saying that they are depressed - I’m making it easier and increasing the offer to $500.
I’m even making it easier to qualify: You don’t have to be addressing Seasonal Affective Disorder (Winter blues), you don’t have to post anything publicly, and you don’t have to give up deserts of change your diet at all.
Here is my new offer:
Following these simple steps will make you happier in 7 days or I will pay you $500. It’s that simple.
Here are the simple rules.
* Get your blood flowing for at least 30 minutes every single day. Work out, Lift, Run, Move, be physically active, or simply go for a purposeful Walk - You choose the work out. You just have to do it every day and it has to be purposeful and deliberate. You need to get your heart rate up. Deep breathing is highly effective for improving mental health and is consistently proven by research.
* Ignore your phone, email, & social media for the first 1 hour of the day and the last 1 hour before you go to bed - every single day. Be present. Don’t be nose down to your phone or device at the start and end of the day.
* Keep a private journal at the end of the day to document how you’re feeling, what you’re grateful for, and what you accomplished in the day. Never miss a day. The journal will be private to you.
* No alcohol or drugs that aren’t prescribed by a doctor for all 7 days.
That’s it. 4 simple steps that require no equipment, no gym membership, nothing for you to buy - all you need is a desire to improve your mood.
I’ve made the rules much simpler. You don’t need to post anything publicly, you don’t need to share how you feel with anyone, this is all completely private between me and you.
Here are the very simple rules:
* You must be a real human living in the USA. I don’t know how the rules in other countries work with stuff like this.
* You must start the challenge on or before 12/11/2023 and complete it before 12/18/2023.
* You must have a desire to be happier than you currently are today. This method isn’t intended to be able to cure your grief or clinically diagnosed depression within 7 days. (But I am confident that this process will probably help.)
* These tasks need to be new to you. If you already do all 4 of the steps above, congratulations! But this challenge doesn’t apply to you.
* You must email me to let me know that you are starting this challenge! Consider this your registration for the challenge. Just email me on the day you start so that we can start the clock running and so that I can send you words of encouragement along the way. This challenge will be private between me and you.
* Each day that you complete all 4 steps, you must document them by sending me an email and letting me know what you did for each of the steps. This entire bet is basically on the honor system, so I need to be able to follow along with your progress each day. You can’t just wait until the end and say “I did it and it didn’t work.” That’s not fair.
* After you complete the 7 days, you must have a friend, a significant other, or a family member that is willing to vouch for you. I want to be able to verify that you did what you said you did. This person doesn’t need to be present for every workout or anything like that. But they do need to be willing to vouch for you and your honesty.
* You must respond to my emails so that we can keep a dialog going. Part of this process is having a partner helping you along the way. I can’t help if you don’t respond.
* At the end of the 7 days, if you have completed all the required steps and you can honestly say that your mood has not improved at all, I will Venmo you $500. It’s that simple. Remember, I’m not promising that you will be the happiest person in the world. With this process we are setting out to improve your mood from the place you started in. Incremental progress is what we are always going after. Not quick easy solutions. Those rarely exist in the real world.
This challenge is limited to the first 50 people that respond. That will cap my expense at $25,000. You don’t need to be a subscriber to my newsletter. I hope this helps as many people as possible.
Let’s do it! Email me and lets get started. I will be your personal coach and motivator along the 7 day journey.
7 days to improve your mood or I’ll pay you $500. What’s stopping you? Lets go!
Next week my topic will be the weight loss drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy. I’ve been working on this article for a while and I’m going to share some of the data, my concerns, and how you can mitigate the harms if you are currently taking those drugs. (As I’ve mentioned before, I am not taking any medication at all and none for weight loss. But I am an early investor in Ozempic & Wegovy.)
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I will improve your Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) or winter blues within 7 days or I will pay you $50. It’s that simple.
If you’re like me, the short days, lack of sunlight, and cold weather can make me a little sad or throw my mood off in general. I’ve developed a system that helps me overcome the winter blues. I am risking $23,000 of my own money because I’m that confident that my system will improve your winter blues or seasonal affective disorder (SAD).
Here is my offer!
I will improve your Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) or winter blues within 7 days or I will pay you $50. It’s that simple.
Here are the rules. All you need to do is be a subscriber (free or paid) to my newsletter as of 11/28/2023. If you follow my process below and honestly report on your progress - if after 7 days, your mood hasn’t improved, I will Venmo you $50. It’s that simple. Here is my process to cure your winter blues.
How to overcome the winter blues, Seasonal affective disorder, or SAD within 7 days.
* Get your blood flowing for at least 30 minutes every single day. Work out, Lift, Run, Move, be physically active, or simply go for a purposeful Walk - You choose the work out. You just have to do it every day and it has to be purposeful and deliberate. You need to get your heart rate up. Breathing deeply is the number one activity that has been proven to improve mental health.
* Ignore your phone, email, & social media for the first 1 hour of the day and the last 1 hour before you go to bed - every single day. Be present. Don’t be nose down to your phone or device.
* Keep a private journal at the end of the day to document how you’re feeling, what you’re grateful for, and what you accomplished in the day. Never miss a day. The journal will be private to you.
* Avoid cheap dopamine. Prioritize long term pleasures over short term pleasures. This means no desserts, no TikTok, ignore the news, no alcohol, and no drugs that aren’t prescribed to you by a doctor. You don’t need to go sober forever, but for 7 days, it’s time to focus on your mental health.
That’s it. 4 simple steps that require no equipment, no gym membership, nothing for you to buy - all you need is a desire to improve your mood.
As of writing this post I have 464 subscribers. So that means I am risking $23,200 of my own money. This is very risky for me but that’s how confident I am that it will work for you.
Rules:
* You must be a free or paid subscriber to my newsletter before 11/28/2023.
* You must be a real human living in the USA. I don’t know how the rules in other countries work with stuff like this.
* You must start the challenge on or before 11/29/2023 and complete it before 12/7/2023.
* You must be currently experiencing Seasonal affective disorder, or SAD, or have the winter blues… basically you have to be feeling sad because of the weather change. I’m not claiming to be able to cure your grief or clinically diagnosed depression within 7 days. But I will suggest that this process will probably help..
* You must email me to let me know that you are starting this challenge! Consider this your registration for the challenge. Just email me on the day you start so that we can start the clock running and so that I can send you words of encouragement along the way.
* Each day that you complete all 4 steps, you must document them with a comment on this post on Substack and let me know what you did for each of the steps. This entire bet is basically on the honor system, so I need to be able to follow along with your progress each day. You can’t just wait until the end and say “I did it and it didn’t work.” That’s not fair.
* You must have a friend, a significant other, or a family member that is willing to vouch for you. I want to be able to verify that you did what you said you did. This person doesn’t need to do anything, they don’t need to be present for every workout or anything like that. But they do need to be willing to vouch for you and your honesty.
* At the end of the 7 days, if you have completed all the required steps and you can honestly say that your mood has not improved at all, I will Venmo you $50. It’s that simple. Remember, I’m not promising that you will be the happiest person in the world. With this process we are setting out to improve your mood from the place you started in. Incremental progress is what we are always going after. Not quick easy solutions. Those rarely exist in the real world.
I want you to be happier. If you want to be happier, this is exactly how you can do it. I guarantee.
If you’re not currently a subscriber and you want to participate in this journey, awesome, let’s do it! You won’t be eligible for the $50 prize, but you’ll get the best gift of all. The feeling of accomplishment and an improvement mood. And hell, maybe I’ll even send you a gift anyway because I’ll be so proud of you.
Let’s go!
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As most of you know, I am the Co-Owner of two BBQ restaurants and two Pizza places in the Lansing, Michigan area. We also offer two BBQ sauces and two spice rubs in our restaurants and retailers around Michigan and online.
But this isn’t a sales pitch for them… I’m mentioning this because I want to give you a FREE bottle of Sauce as a Thank You for being a subscriber to this newsletter! All you need to do is reply to this email and I will send you a coupon code so that you can get a free bottle. That’s it. No strings attached. I just can’t thank you enough for supporting me on this journey of creating content and improving my health.
Your support helped lift me out of a very dark place and I want to pay it back in a small way. Thank you again. Please reply to this email so that I can send you your own bottle.
This week I had the pleasure of being a guest on the Rising Above Podcast with David Hess. David is a local guy that overcame a childhood of abuse and neglect suffered at the hands of his foster parents. He started this podcast as a way to share the stories of others that have overcame adversity to rise above.
It was a great conversation. We talk about my background at Liquid Web, the Year Of The Opposite, his history of abuse, how my ownership of Liquid Web was structured, the joys of running, and much more. I hope that you enjoy this podcast as much as I did.
Weight Achievement
This week I am happy to report that I achieved my target body weight goal and the lowest weight of my adult life, 173lbs! It was pretty cool because it was also at the end of a 10 mile run that I topped off with a 3 minute cold plunge. Check out this video.
Bonus Tip & Life Hack - The Best iPhone Feature Ever - Silence Unknown Callers
Are you sick of spam calls? I (used to) get at least 10 a day. Not anymore! You can Silence Unknown Callers. If the phone number isn’t in your address book the call doesn’t ring and it gets sent to voicemail. The call will still show up in your recent calls list. The caller doesn’t know any different. It’s amazing. It puts you in control of your phone again.
To turn it on, go to Settings > Phone, then > Silence Unknown Callers, and turn on the feature. Or go to Settings, pull down to access Search, type “Silence Unknown Callers” and turn it on that way.
Calls from unknown numbers are silenced and sent to your voicemail, and appear in your recent calls list.
Today’s newsletter is a short one because I really want to hear from you. I’m hoping that this will be a two way conversation. So please, even if you don’t want the bottle of sauce, reply to this email and let me know you’re out there. You can let me know what you like about the newsletter, your suggestions for improvement, what is going on in your life, or anything else that comes to mind.
I look forward to hearing from you!
* Trav
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