Avsnitt
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Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin
06:31 - A noticeable shift?
08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy?
13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator
18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts?
24:24 - Balancing competing forces
30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios
33:55 - Do they consider supply shocks in...
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Together with Nick Baltas, we dive into trading signal direction and discuss if signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction, based on CFM’s paper on Agnostic Risk Parity. Baltas also explains why allocating risk to where opportunity lies is prudent as well as why trend following is a powerful tool to achieve a broad risk allocation. Based on Baltas’ recent paper in the Financial Times, we also discuss equity momentum and why trend followers might be the “unwanted guests at the party”.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:52 - What has been on our radar recently?
12:36 - Industry performance update - how is May so far?
15:45 - New Ultimate Guide out now...How to get your Free copy!
16:38 - Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction?
27:39 - Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes?
35:19 - Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following?
39:22 - Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts?
46:54 - Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times
57:48 - What kind of party guest would a trend follower be?
59:09 - Thanks for...
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors, joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Tad on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows
12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors
15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community?
19:52 - Why not the traditional route?
23:14 - How are they allocated?
27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio
35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro?
40:18 - Micro or macro?
45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in...
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Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Hari on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:07 - What is catching our attention recently?
06:53 - A recap of April
10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following
14:30 - The interesting commodities
18:10 - A commodity super cycle inbound?
20:36 - BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 2022
22:51 - How commodity storage functions
29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence
32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works
35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation
42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?
47:06 - Manual or systematized?
48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities
53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to?
54:16 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...
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In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework
07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation
12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?
21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?
27:37 - A scary situation in Europe?
32:16 - How election periods affect the economy
40:22 - A wall of worry
43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce...
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Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?
02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?
03:11 - Industry performance update
05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?
12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro
18:09 - Important market development recently?
31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios
35:48 - The structure of markets
42:23 - Are rate cuts coming?
48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative
53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump
56:49 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Marko on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Marko's current macro framework
07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world
14:43 - How is now different from back in the days?
23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane
31:48 - The election - a macro black hole
36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective
44:18 - What happens with Ukraine?
49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global...
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Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:15 - Industry performance update
09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?
13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?
20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?
26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?
27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy
32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation
41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation
46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa
57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence
59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In...
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In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer
04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?
07:19 - What drives the cycles?
09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles
12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?
14:39 - Interpreting the signals
17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?
21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?
26:54 -...
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In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:08 - What has been on our radar recently?
08:33 - Industry performance update
16:02 - What is the optimal allocation to trend following?
24:02 - Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?
27:09 - Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?
31:30 - Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?
37:21 - What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?
42:01 - Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach
46:44 - What about the fees?
50:34 - Are we losing the incentive to improve?
58:45 - The impact of crises
01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter
01:08:26 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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Today, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we discuss how Aspect Capital uses AI in their work and how systematic trading has changed as a whole with the rise of AI, what Todd is most excited and concerned about in 2024 and much more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Todd on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
02:24 - Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital
05:43 - A global macro perspective
09:45 - How has the industry evolved?
13:51 - Are investors under-allocated to trend?
17:11 - Trend following - a return enhancer?
20:37 - The correlation between stocks and bonds
25:27 - The path to offering multible strategies
29:47 - Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors
33:26 - Are CTAs threatened by replication
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Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 - Industry performance update
06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?
11:49 - What causes the rising Cocoa prices?
13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following
16:58 - Industry performance update continued
18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?
22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?
30:51 - A period of normalcy
34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative
42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?
46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or...
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Christophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for UPP and we discuss how Christophe thinks about an appropriate strategy allocation within absolute return. We also delve into the challenges of manager selection and evaluation, why it is important to remember that you are buying an “investment process” not historical returns when allocating to managers and discuss when is it appropriate to remove a manager and when not.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Christophe on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:50 - Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec
07:06 - A new initiative
10:01 - What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?
12:40 - What goes into which bucket?
14:45 - What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?
16:31 - Constructing an absolute return portfolio
18:38 - How they approach trend following
21:58 - Why do they use leverage?
23:32 -
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Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman
03:54 - Things are changing
09:54 - Industry performance update
13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing
16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa
21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect
24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?
28:31 - Less markets = better performance?
30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market
39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index
45:09 - A euphoric environment
49:47...
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In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia.
Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech dependent. Tony mentions that short-term trading is difficult and that the space has a higher barrier to entry, which is why there are relatively few short-term managers for investors to choose from, but that one really attractive feature is the low correlation of their returns not only to traditional asset classes, but also to their own sector, i.e., other short-term managers.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Tony on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:16 - Introduction to Tony Kaiser
04:07 - An interesting journey
16:50 - A difficult space for alpha
20:55 - Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?
28:17 - How has trading frequency and systems evolved?
33:15 - Do Kaiser's original models still work today?
45:28 - A shock to the system
49:43 - Where does the low correlation come from?
57:00 -...
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Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs.
-----
EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment?
05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble?
14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound?
20:41 - Industry performance update
24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook
32:29 - Equities are here for the long term
37:57 - All in on equities?
44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong
46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role?
50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in?
53:28 - Choosing the right strategy
58:00 - Thanks for listening
Resources discussed in this Episode:
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In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:09 - Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro
06:18 - What is their
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Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?
06:24 - Industry performance update
07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?
11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?
12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator
15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction
20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?
21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio
24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?
25:25 - The importance of skewness
31:06 - Mind the timeframe
34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)
38:15 - No pain, no gain...
43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)
47:33 - Dealing with a world in disruption
50:48 -...
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Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Tor on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - Introduction to Tor Svelland
06:18 - How have commodity markets evolved?
09:19 - More opportunities in commodity markets?
11:32 - Why Tor started his own firm
14:15 - Tor's outlook for the commodity markets
17:10 - What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?
20:09 - Are we in a super cycle?
22:55 - Translating trends into trades
24:47 -...
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This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - What has been on our radar recently?
06:31 - Industry performance update
13:41 - Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?
23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?
26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?
32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?
43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based...
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