Avsnitt
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There’s always turmoil - tariff volatility is just today's
I’ve been doing this at TicketManager for going on 18 years.
I can’t remember a period longer than 30 days when there wasn’t some crazy turmoil in the world.
It’s a selling point for the news and something people say to each other all the time to justify whatever they’re looking to justify—whether it’s anxiety, poor performance, or a lack of vision for the future.
Since we started this company, we have had a Global recession, a Series A squeeze, a global pandemic, the city around our HQ burned down, a Covid bounce, a white-collar recession, historic inflation, and on and on.
Today, it’s the tariff volatility
Tomorrow it’ll be something else.
That’s the game.
As an entrepreneur, complaining about it and yearning for certainty is a waste of time. If it were easy, everyone would do it.
There’s nothing better than thriving through those things. It brings a sense of accomplishment I didn’t understand going in.
StubHub pulls its IPO as the ticketing darlings of the mid-2010s are cratering.
When I left StubHub in 2007, I had drinks with a couple of executives there. They couldn’t believe why I was leaving. I told them, simply: I don’t think you have any defensible moat. Eventually, the content providers, tours, bands, and teams are going to find a way to get back control of what they’re selling. And I believe they should have that control. Then what?
It turns out I was very wrong about how long it took, but we’re here now. The primaries are stronger than ever. Ticketmaster and Live Nation are thriving, Tickets.com is doing well, and AXS is growing and has found its market. All three are monetizing their tech and including secondary in their offerings.
The secondary, however? Behind the scenes, there are a lot of phone calls from investors and weary CEOs looking for homes for companies that were supposedly worth hundreds of millions or “billions” just a few years ago.
StubHub can’t find a way to service its debt
Vivid Seats' market cap has dropped to under 600 million, making it nearly impossible for them to go private. Meanwhile, investor Todd Boehly is getting heat in London for his involvement in the secondary.
The list goes on and on. There are many other darlings who raised too much money and still can’t turn a profit. If they stop paying for CAC, the numbers get terrifying (StubHub is in this boat - anyone who read their S1 saw the inefficient marketing spend).
The spigot has closed. And some big names are starting to look like they're about to become zombies if someone doesn't pick them up on the cheap.
I believe there will be at least two transactions and two CEO scalps by Q2 2026.
Augusta further proves the big are getting bigger.
The Masters market went bonkers this week. It’s a trend that’s been happening recently with major events that have a static home.
The sought-after events that have a regular home are becoming increasingly powerful, while events and teams in smaller markets are struggling. Companies are still spending; they’re just moving the spending around as they become more sophisticated.
I had lunch with a mentor several years ago, and he said something that still bothers me today. He was talking about how AI is coming and it’s probably going to wipe out the middle class.
He used the example of truck drivers, thousands of whom were going to be out of work in the near future. He told me, "You have to get on the other side of the fence before there is no middle class, because that’s how it is in most of the world" (he is not from the United States and does not live here).
That gap seems to be growing in live events right now. People can’t get enough of the top events, like The Masters, The Kentucky Derby, The US Open of Tennis, and The PLAYERS; they're all thriving. There seems to be no end in sight to their hospitality offerings. The customers can't get enough.
To that end, our team on the ground is reporting a number of broken StubHub orders. Customers coming to us asking for help after they went to pick up their badges and were turned away.
Augusta is going to shut down the secondary market. And we’re here for it. -
Saknas det avsnitt?
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This week we explore confidence.
I am "arrogant, condescending, think I’m better than everyone and an asshole."
I am also "authentic, can be trusted when it matters, loyal, and a leader who is put in the game, meeting, or situation, when it matters."
The characteristics I have in my life have led me to be called all of those names quite often.
We live in a world that values confidence while also hating and resenting it at the same time
I want my kids to be confident and I see that in them. I also see how the world treats that confidence.
Three things I’ve learned about confidence. Part one: -
Three Things I Learned In SaaS, Sports, Tech, & Live Events
A wall-to-wall week in New Orleans and what I learned:
1) Sometimes an event outgrows it's home. The Super Bowl has outgrown traditional hosts in Miami, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans
The thesis going into the event was that hotel rooms are going to be an issue. They were.
New Orleans is amazing. I hadn't spent much time In the city before last weekend. I'd heard it is "not for me," but I had a different experience. I really enjoyed it and had a fantastic Super Bowl experience.
I'm not sure that's the same experience most fans had. Due to a lack of rooms, many had to drive into the city for the festivities - and that was near impossible come the weekend. The one venture we made out of town was to take an airboat tour of the bayou. Upon arriving back, our Uber would have taken an hour-plus to go the final mile. And that was on Saturday. Sunday was worse.
It's not just a New Orleans thing. The game is too big now. As much as I enjoy many of the great host cities, I think we're going to see a lot more of the more traditional conference cities hosting the game.
Miami and Tampa will still host, but I'll be surprised if New Orleans does again in the next ten years. Especially after how well LA, Phoenix, and Las Vegas did hosting the games.
2. Miami and Las Vegas broke our expectations for the Super Bowl market
I was very wrong, publicly, in my estimation of what the Super Bowl tickets would cost. Part of that equation was the hotel rooms. The bigger part? New Orleans was actually a fairly expensive game, we just remember the outliers more.
In "Thinking Fast and Slow," Daniel Kanhemann lays out, in great detail, the case that we remember and over-index to extremes in most situations.
I believe that's what happened this year as the internet oversold the weakness of the market.
Ratings were as high as ever (ignore discussions of records. Everything is a record now since they changed the way they count ratings) and the market was fairly strong when compared to the first match-up between the Eagles and Chiefs in Phoenix in 2023.
It just didn't match Miami or Vegas - and that's a great thing. Tickets need to be affordable to fans. A $5k get-in is not.
Since 2000, only a few Super Bowl's stand out with get-ins over $2500: Phoenix in 2015 (and for no-longer-existent market reasons), Miami in 2020, and Las Vegas 2024.
Most other Super Bowls are well-under $3k with some under $1k.
I, like many, was starting to think maybe the maker is just more expensive now.
Maybe not.
Good thing that's not my job
3. Thank You
I started the Three Things as a journal for my kids.
The support I get from friends and even strangers who walk up to me and say they enjoy reading my LinkedIn posts makes me so happy.
People actually read it.
Crazy.
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Three Things I Learned In SaaS, Sports, Tech, and Live Events
The "Hospitality" Conundrum
The ticketing market has come a long way since I started at the LA Dodgers in 2001.
Back then, tickets were dramatically underpriced and sold to season ticket holders for teams and "insiders" (read: brokers) for major events.
In the mid-2000s, the NFL caught on to the price vs market disparity and created a program they called "On-Location," where consumers could buy tickets bundled with a room and hospitality for a price exponentially higher than face value.
Simply: They could charge the actual market price for the tickets and hide the difference in the package. Nobody could break out what costs what.
Since then, hospitality has exploded with private equity stroking huge checks to get in the game (Sixth Street & Legends, Arctos & Elevate, Endeavor-via-Bruin Capital & On-Location, Liberty and Quint, and so on).
Hospitality is now offered at nearly every major event and, for many, business in the hospitality game is booming. Revenues are setting records annually, though we don't know how profitable the business is as there are usually large upfronts paid for the right to sell hospitality exclusively.
Three things I've learned from being in/seeing all the hospitality over the past year at all the biggest events -
This week:
1. They're stealing from you. All of them. Be guarded about your tech, business model, and customers. We share examples and names of those who did it to us
2. "I don't give b--w jobs but I know when they're being done wrong" - Bill Maher. How his quote is applicable to the early days of a business
3. Why Scott Galloway's career advice is wrong - All-Star Game edition
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The unmitigated disaster that was the 2004 AEG Olympics.
Sometimes great people have terrible ideas.
In 2004, I worked at AEG as a sales person. AEG had just finished building the Home Depot Center (now Dignity Health Sports Park). It was a multi-use sports facility with a professional stadium for the LA Galaxy with training facilities for track, tennis, cycling, baseball, and more.
The AEG brass had a big idea: We could bring companies in for a team-building company Olympics. The market for such events was big and we could leverage the entire property for a daylong event. They laid out the plan and we, AEG's internal staff, were going to be the guinea pigs.
I can't properly relay how much of a disaster it was. -
Three Things I Learned in SaaS, Sports, Tech, & Live Events
I mentioned back in April that we had to take a hiatus until after Memorial Day "for reasons I'll share then."
Well, we were in court. In a jury trial for nearly a month. I'll be sharing a LOT about that experience after appeals. But for now:
Three things I learned about telling the truth during the most stressful month of my life:
1. You cannot hide who you are in court.
In a trial, everything is public. Much more than you might think, too. Your emails, slacks, instant messages, texts, and even your personal notes. This trial looked at everything that happened between 2010 and 2020—ten whole years.
Witness after witness got up there and tried to bend the truth. They'd be shown an email they wrote themselves and then try to explain why it "doesn't really say what it says."
Some were so absurd they'd claim entire sentences were "typos".
It would be silly if it weren't so tragic.
Tell the truth—all the time. You'll have nothing to hide when you end up on the stand, like I did for an entire day.
2. "He doesn't know what to do!"
Lying and deceiving are standard operating procedure for the vast majority of people. We sat and watched one person after another knowingly lie. They couldn't even look us in the eyes in the hallway.
But that can work to our advantage.
We only know the world we know. When they strategize, they think of what they'd do in certain situations, such as cross-examinations. What they'd say.
They read emails through their own corrupted lens. They can't fathom we'd actually get up and tell the truth.
My favorite moment of "The Miracle On Ice" is near the end of the game. The Soviet Union's coach doesn't pull his goalie. Coach Herb Brooks turns to Craig Patrick and gleefully shouts "He doesn't know what to do!"
He didn't know to pull his goalie as he'd never been in that situation.
We had a similar moment when their attorney was attacking me in cross-examination. I had to try to hide my smile. The truth was going to deliver us.
3. If you are inauthentic, people can see it. Even if you worry they can't.
We were so nervous. We knew we were telling the truth. We knew the evidence was clear. We knew who was being paid through "consulting agreements" to testify.
But we didn't know if the jury would see it.
They did. Our lawyers got to talk to them after the trial ended. 11-1 on all counts.
I wrote in April that it was Daniel's faith that got him thrown in the lion's den and only his faith could get him out.
I lost my father four days before I took the stand. He was the most honest man I've ever known. I watched people take advantage of his integrity time and time again my whole life. But he never wavered - he always did the right thing and told the truth. No matter the cost.
And when we needed it most, the truth was our most powerful weapon. -
Three Things I Learned in SaaS, Sports, Tech, & Live Events
1) You can compete without being enemies.
Competition is a part of life. If would be great if there was enough for everyone to be wildly successful, but we haven't figured that out yet, despite many wars.
When someone else is stiving for what we want, and there is a limited supply, the easiest thing to do is de-humanize the other person and make them "evil" or "bad." It's human nature and the default position of so many people. When 'that' kid is playing 'their' kid's spot, rivalries begin for no reason.
But it isn't necessary. One of my closest friends for the past 20+ years I met when we played the same position at USC. We competed every day. Another friend was a fifth year Senior at the same position when I was a freshman. I got playing time (he did too). Easy to see, though, that if I weren't there he'd have gotten more. I'm still friends with them both today and our families have become friends.
Just because someone sees the same opportunity you do, doesn't make them evil.
One caveat: Ryan and Trent are honest men who competed fairly. If others not competing fairly or legally, it's necessary to use the resources you have to defend yourself and those you're responsible to.
2. Nothing works harder than grateful
I'm often asked a great question at the end of the interview process. It's usually a version of: "What characteristics make people successful at TicketManager?"
I've spent a LOT of time considering the answer: People who want to be here.
Been doing this sixteen years - and led teams at StubHub and AEG as well. There are so many diverse characteristics which can be very successful. Everyone is so unique. But all super-successful hires share the one characteristic that they have a choice as to where they will work and they really want to be here. It's not just "a little bit better" for them than elsewhere.
If we can find that, we can build around it.
I love my job so much that when I hear others talk about theirs I immediately think "I need to go work even more" I'm so thankful for it.
3. Sometimes your faith will get you into an uncomfortable situation, and it's only that same faith that'll get you out.
Enjoyed a lesson on Daniel. His faith is what caused those around him turn on him and throw him in the lion's den to die. That same faith was the only thing that delivered him safely.
Keep the faith and do the right thing. No matter how hard it can be in the moment.
To that end, the Three Things will be taking a break until after Memorial Day for reasons I'll share then.
Say a prayer for the good in the world! -
Three Things I Learned in SaaS, Sports, Tech, & Live Events
Let's do a fun one this week:
The top sporting events I've been to as a result of my job.
1. The Greatest Game Ever Played: USC - Texas Rose Bowl 2006
2. The Helmet Catch
3. Kobe's Finale
4. Tiger Wood's One -Legged Major
5. Super Bowl LIV - Chiefs vs Niners
6. The Fastest Knock-out in UFC History
7. Bama- Clemson 1 - The 2016 Fiesta Bowl Shootout
8. World Heavyweight Title: Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder 1
9. Corey Seager's Heroics - 2023 World Series Win Amidst Loss
10. The Infamous Plaster-in-the-Gloves: Cotto vs. Margarito 1
11. * Jason Lezak’s comeback - The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
Much more in the Substack about the experience along with some pictures.
Please excuse that we didn't have cameras on our phones until 2007, and even then they were pretty bad, so I don't have the best pics of each event.
Next time we see one another, I'd love to hear yours - along with a list of the top 5 in history you'd go to if you could - Visa fler
