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Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it.
We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!
Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
Incumbents in all three provinces that voted in October took their licks, but David Eby in British Columbia and Scott Moe in Saskatchewan managed to secure re-election. That wasn’t the case for Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick, who lost not only the premier’s chair but his own seat.
What happened in these three provincial campaigns — and what lessons might be drawn out of them as Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh prepare for the upcoming federal election?
The Pollster Panel is back on The Writ Podcast to provide their perspectives.
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.
Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.
James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.
THE NUMBERS: The podcast is now available for everyone every week, so if you missed this week’s episode, in which we dive into the Saskatchewan election results as well as the latest federal polls, you can watch it on YouTube here or find it in your favourite podcasting app. If you’d like to become a member of the Patreon and listen to the weekly mailbag episode, as well as a special episode every month, you can join the Patreon here.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
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This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do?
We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?
Note to listeners: Public episodes of The Numbers will now be published every week! The Writ Podcast isn’t going away, but its publishing schedule will be irregular. You can expect one or two new episodes of The Writ Podcast every month, featuring some of my regular panelists and focusing on special events, like elections and leadership contests. When there isn’t a new episode of The Writ Podcast, you’ll get the latest episode of The Numbers right here in your feed and/or inbox.
Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.
We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.
Apologies for the poor audio from me during the first half of this episode.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get extended mailbag segments and bonus episodes, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
As suggested in the podcast, if you’d like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
Election livestreams on Saturday and Monday can be found here.
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
There are less than two weeks to go in the B.C. and New Brunswick provincial elections, while Saskatchewan’s campaign officially got underway. We’ll know who has won these three contests by the end of the month, but for now all three might be too close to call.
Back to provide some updates from the campaign trails on this episode of The Writ Podcast (and a day early!) are Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in B.C., Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick, and Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Saskatchewan.
THE NUMBERS: This week’s members-only episode of The Numbers will be available later on Thursday here. We’ll delve more deeply into some of the polling numbers coming out of British Columbia, along with all the latest in provincial and federal politics from across the country.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.
In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
The writs dropped last week in both British Columbia and New Brunswick as the dates for the next provincial elections were officially set for October 19 in B.C. and October 21 in New Brunswick. The polls suggest that both campaigns are too close to call, which means the next three weeks could prove decisive.
To update us on the latest developments in these two elections, I’m joined this week on The Writ Podcast by Richard Zussman, legislative reporter for Global News in B.C., and Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, we break down some of the latest federal polls and what they might mean for election timing. Then, we delve into the three provincial campaigns in British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, where polls raise more questions than they do provide answers about who is going to win. We also look at the Ontario byelection results in Bay of Quinte.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics?
We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s writ drop in New Brunswick.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
The fall political season could prove to be a tumultuous one, as the end of the deal between Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP opens up the possibility of a snap election and ensures that brinksmanship will be the order of the day, at least until that vote happens — something that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will try to force as soon as possible.
But a potential catalyst for upheaval will come very soon on Monday, as voters go to the polls in the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections, contests in which all three parties, plus the Bloc Québécois, have something at stake.
To set us up for what should be a fascinating few months, I’m joined this week by the pollster panel.
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.
Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.
James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.
Join us at 9:30 PM ET / 8:30 PM CT on September 16 for our livestream of the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona byelections. You will find the livestream here.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, it's all about the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections. We set our over/under lines and make some predictions about the outcomes. We also chat about some of the new polls out this past week that put the Conservatives at a new high of 45%, and the NDP at a new low.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.
In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests me against a machine in the Quiz.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
With just a few weeks to go before the writ drop, the next election in British Columbia was thrown on its head Wednesday when Kevin Falcon announced he was withdrawing B.C. United from the race — and endorsing John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives. What does this mean for the NDP and Premier David Eby’s chances of re-election, as well as for the future of the once formidable, now former, B.C. Liberals?
The news broke just after Richard Zussman of Global News and I had recorded an episode about the state of B.C. politics on Wednesday morning. Once it emerged that everything had changed, we had to get together again to re-record. And with B.C. political news breaking so fast, I couldn’t wait until the usual Friday to put this episode up in your feeds.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which will be available for Patreon members on Thursday here, Philippe and I will break down the implications of this move on B.C. politics. We’ll also have lots of new poll numbers to discuss, as usual!
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.
We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
LES CHIFFRES: Une vraie course au PLQ ? Philippe et Éric discutent des plus récents chiffres fédéraux au Québec, y compris de certains sondages qui placent les conservateurs et le Bloc nez à nez. Au-delà des chiffres individuels, quelles ont été les tendances au cours de l'été ? Nous discutons aussi de la course à la chefferie du PLQ qui compte maintenant deux candidats officiels, ainsi que deux (ou trois ?) candidatures potentielles. Le PLQ aura-t-il donc une « vraie course » à la chefferie ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
The closest thing to a dynasty in Canadian politics is in Saskatchewan, where the Saskatchewan Party has governed since 2007. First under Brad Wall and now under Scott Moe, the Sask. Party has dominated in election after election, relegating the New Democrats to the opposition.
But polls suggest the race in Saskatchewan could be the closest in decades. Could the dynasty come to an end when the province goes to the polls in October?
On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Regina, to look ahead to Saskatchewan’s upcoming campaign.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I discuss the latest poll showing the Conservatives narrowly ahead in Quebec. We also chat about a new poll from British Columbia and the launch of the Canadian Future Party, we answer listener questions and put our wits to the test with a Quiz!
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.
In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests me with a Prairie-themed Quiz.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
Will Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives win a third consecutive election when New Brunswickers are called to the polls in October (or, perhaps, sooner), or will Susan Holt score a win for her Liberals in a national climate that is turning against her party’s brand?
On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, to break down the upcoming campaign in New Brunswick, one of three provinces scheduled to hold elections in the coming months.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the two byelections that have been set for Sept. 16 in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. The Liberals are defending the first and the NDP the second. Between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, who has the most to lose?
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.
(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)
This week, we also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests me with a Quiz.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario.
In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.
Regular episodes of The Writ Podcast will be returning soon!
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer listener questions, including:
* Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?
* Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?
* Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?
* Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!
This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
The Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection ensured that this political summer would be a hot one, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces serious dissent within his caucus for perhaps the first time since becoming leader in 2013. What does this summer have in store for him and his Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives?
To break it all down, I’m joined again by (most of) the pollster panel.
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.
Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.
Unfortunately, James Valcke was unable to join us this week.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the latest national poll numbers and new developments within the Liberal Party — what does it mean for Justin Trudeau's future? We also chat about where things stand in Ontario and whether an early election call poses any risk to Doug Ford's polling lead. In the mailbag, we guess at who is more likely to step aside — Biden or Trudeau — as well as what to watch in the upcoming LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection. Finally, we close with a Quiz on the 1997 federal election.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe -
On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.
For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
LES CHIFFRES: Est-ce la fin de l’ère Trudeau ? Éric et Philippe discutent de l'élection partielle dans Toronto–St. Paul's lundi dernier, qui fut une cuisante défaite du PLC dans ce qui était considéré comme un château fort libéral depuis trois décennies. Avec de tels résultats, Justin Trudeau peut-il rester en poste ? A-t-il encore la légitimité pour gouverner ? Que nous disent ces chiffres sur l'avance conservatrice au pays ? Et à quoi devrions-nous nous attendre de l'élection partielle à venir dans Lasalle–Émard–Verdun ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe - Visa fler
