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Ted Knutson, a former professional gambler, shares his picks for every Premier League match this weekend and explains why you shouldn’t chase the action on weeks where the total bet number is small. He then goes over some of the reads he shared on social media earlier this week. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:16 - Bet105
02:28 - Brighton v Chelsea
04:04 - The best players are only worth so much to lines, even Messi and Ronaldo
04:43 - Leicester v Arsenal
06:24 - Fulham v Forest
06:55 - Southampton v Bournemouth
07:45 - Aston Villa v Ipswich
08:33 - Man City v Newcastle
11:08 - West Ham v Brentford
12:07 - Crystal Palace v Everton
13:14 - DON’T chase the action
14:23 - Liverpool v Wolves
15:00 - Tottenham v United
16:57 - Running totals and new bet size
17:56 - Ted’s recent reads on Plymouth and AC Milan
21:11 - More about The Transfer Flow
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On today's episode, Patrick is joined by Neel Shelat to discuss all things Champions League from Tuesday's slate of games. They start with the big one, Real Madrid's 3-2 victory over Manchester City. Where were the new transfers, what went wrong for both teams, and can City bounce back in the 2nd leg? After discussing the other games from Tuesday, the conversation switches to the Saudi Pro league and the market opportunities for smart teams. Should more European clubs be trying to get players BACK from Saudi? The episode ends with Kai Havertz' season ending injury. Should Arsenal have made a move in January? Enjoy!
Neel's article on Man City's huge January window: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/manchester-city-spent-180m-planning-for-the-future
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:04 - Neel’s Manchester City transfer article
03:17 - Marmoush is the biggest impact for this season
04:35 - These transfers were meant to rejuvenate an aging squad
05:16 - The transfers did not play early
05:53 - The start of the game + Real Madrid’s initial plan
07:29 - City should have taken more advantage of Madrid’s poor start
07:49 - City have forgotten how to close out games
09:48 - The pressing in this game was staggeringly incompetent
10:35 - Bellingham grew as the game went on
11:18 - Their 2020 matchup and the similarities between the games
12:42 - City’s intensity dropped in the second half
14:49 - The threat of Vinicius vs. De Bruyne
15:42 - Will City become more of a transition side with Marmoush?
17:28 - City must score early in the 2nd leg
18:28 - Quick roundup of Tuesday’s UCL games
18:55 - Juventus vs. PSV
21:33 - Dortmund vs Sporting + the transition to Kovac
24:42 - Opportunities for teams in the Saudi Pro League
25:46 - How many foreign players in the Saudi Pro League?
26:58 - Teams are maxed out - No more huge market movement
27:48 - Fofana example + the opportunity to get players to improve European teams
28:49 - Teams have to be careful with wages
31:08 - Players now have to be careful about getting replaced in a few years time
32:29 - The difference between Saudi and the Chinese Super League
35:16 - Kai Havertz out for the season for Arsenal
36:04 - The timing of moves matters
37:31 - Rotating players to avoid injuries during long seasons
39:06 - Arsenal have ran their stars into the ground
39:45 - Options to replace Havertz + players returning from injury for Arsenal
40:42 - Arteta needs to think about his 13/14 key player rotation + Using Arsenal’s great academy
42:16 - The amount of games are not going to go down ($$$$$$)
42:55 - Where to find Neel
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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On today’s episode, Ted and Patrick breakdown every match in the Knockout phase of the Champions League. They start with the biggest match of the round, Real Madrid vs. Manchester City. Both teams have clear weaknesses, but who will be able to take advantage of them the most? Then they get into Ousmane Dembele, is he the best player in the world right now? Stay tuned to see the hosts live reaction to Feyenoord sacking Brian Priske, underrated matches to watch this round, and some stories from Ted. The episode ends with predictions for EVERY matchup and some behind the scenes footage. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Nicolas Cage is a Coppola?
00:54 - Champions League Playoffs
01:31 - Real Madrid v Man City
02:25 - City are a coin flip and Pep vs Ancelotti
04:57 - How both teams will approach this game
05:53 - Ederson is the best long-ball goalkeeper in the world
07:38 - Madrid can’t press, but their ability to play out from pressure is elite
08:28 - Madrid Derby reactions
09:45 - Dani Ceballos is Madrid’s best player at the moment
11:25 - Patrick vs Rodri, who wins right now?
12:04 - Real Madrid have the worst defensive record in the UCL, why did they make no moves?
15:36 - But surely Real Madrid could have done SOMETHING?
17:10 - Football nepotism = Genepotism
18:24 - Brest vs PSG + Dembele is the form player in the world right now
19:26 - Dembele’s positional change
20:40 - How his ability to use both feet impacts defenders
21:22 - The drastic xG difference
24:55 - Juventus vs PSV
26:16 - Sporting v Dortmund
27:21 - One to watch for potential summer transfers
28:56 - Brugge v Atalanta
29:46 - Atalanta play a very unique style
30:34 - How is Gasperini doing this?
31:36 - The oddities of Italian coaches + a story from Ted
32:52 - Celtic v Bayern Munich
35:21 - Do Celtic have it in them?
36:11 - Feyenoord v AC Milan
37:42 - Milan’s season is becoming more and more unhinged
38:50 - Zlatan not being a bit, he’s just weird
40:01 - Should be a fun contest between managers?
41:27 - Breaking news - Priske sacked mid recording + Reactions
43:32 - Monaco v Benfica is sneaky fun
44:41 - Can Benfica replicate their form?
46:41 - A ton of young, exciting players in this game
49:22 - Predictions for EVERY matchup
51:53 - Behind the scenes - Andre 3000, Australians, and a cliffhanger from Ted
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On today’s episode, Patrick is joined by José C. Pérez to discuss the end of the transfer window. They start with Man City’s spending spree this January and the addition of Nico Gonzalez. Is he their Rodri replacement? The conversation moves to Aston Villa, where the guys try to make sense of their additions. How will Unai Emery use his new firepower? Next, Arsenal and Liverpool both made no moves, but does this mean the Gunners are throwing in the towel? Then comes La Liga, whose teams spent far less this window than the other big leagues. Real Madrid also made no moves, despite a squad that needs upgrades. Is it a sign of things to come across Europe, or is it only due to their financial regulations? The episode finishes with discussion of AC Milan’s moves this window, including Joao Felix, and Como and Rennais both making a TON of moves. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:37 - Man City have spent BIG this window
02:14 - Have City neglected their needs for a while?
04:43 - City’s press has rapidly declined
06:22 - An aging squad + Rodri’s injury
07:56 - Nico Gonzalez history and escaping Barcelona’s grasp
09:18 - City need a more positional version of Gonzalez
10:42 - Physicality and similarities to Rodri
13:27 - Jose’s thoughts on Aston Villa’s window
16:43 - Similarities between Rashford and Malen
17:59 - Asensio’s quality, but do they have enough defensive presence?
19:36 - Why did Liverpool and Arsenal make no moves?
21:24 - Are Arsenal throwing in the towel?
22:46 - Why did La Liga make so few moves?
25:03 - Why are Real Madrid making no moves if they have the money?
27:17 - Why are Madrid averse to spending on defenders?
27:51 - A historic spending spree coming?
30:22 - Serie A went MAD
30:47 - Conceicao and AC Milan’s window
31:51 - How does Joao Felix fit in?
33:05 - Kyle Walker as a conventional RB?
34:33 - Does the Santiago Gimenez make sense?
36:52 - What will Conceicao’s style look like?
37:51 - Como and Rennes make a TON of moves
40:21 - A mix of reloading on talent and trying to win now?
42:09 - Should they have done fewer transfers, given how hard it is to interchange squads?
44:28 - Where can people find Jose?
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On today’s episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Arsenal’s 5-1 victory over Manchester City. Have Arsenal’s academy kids saved their season? Then comes Aston Villa, who have acquired Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio on loan. Why have they agreed to pay the rumoured 75% of Rashford’s wages? Next, Tottenham’s search for defenders and the loan addition of Mathys Tel from Bayern Munich. Why would spurs agree to a loan deal if it only helps Bayern? The episode ends with discussion of Evan Ferguson’s loan move to West Ham, Brighton stockpiling assets, and the atmosphere at the Arsenal/Man City game. Stick around for behind the scenes footage with discussion of Japanese game shows, Natalie Portman, and Kumail Nanjiani.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:50 - Arsenal thrash Man City
03:14 - Teams are teeing off on the City press this year
05:03 - Lewis-Skelly and the Arsenal kids SAVED their season
06:08 - Nwaneri and Lewis-Skelly don’t look like kids
07:03 - How good Academy players influence the rest of the squad
08:09 - They’re mentally ahead of the curve
09:55 - Not every youngster is capable of this
10:33 - Will Lewis-Skelly stay at left-back?
12:36 - Arsenal are in win now mode
15:27 - Marcus Rashford and Asensio to Aston Villa
16:49 - Why are they paying 75% of Rashford wages?
17:37 - Villa are focusing on the Champions League
18:55 - Villa love a big name from a big club
20:24 - Tottenham’s search for defenders
20:36 - Palace turns down 70M for Guehi? And Brighton turned down 90M for Mitoma?
22:40 - Spurs sign Tel on a straight loan… WHY?
24:02 - Spurs sign Kevin Danso as well, is he a backup?
26:20 - Will Spurs try a back 3? + Back 3’s this season
28:28 - Brighton and Fabian Hurzeler
29:27 - Teams can save themselves money by having design
30:00 - Brighton let Evan Ferguson join West Ham on loan
30:42 - What would you want Ferguson’s buy option to be here?
33:01 - He’s going to a coach who knows him
34:10 - What would Brighton hope to get for him in the summer?
36:24 - Brighton are stockpiling forwards
38:03 - Brighton have everything in place, but Hurzeler might not be the coach for the job
38:41 - City fans complaining about the Arsenal atmosphere
39:47 - It’s part of wearing the crown
40:19 - The Arsenal/Man City games have become a real rivalry
42:48 - PSG have ruined their rivalry with Marseille
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, shares his picks for EPL Matchday 24. He shares why he's taking Bournemouth over Liverpool, betting on Ipswich, and staying away from Arsenal v Man City.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:40 - Find the best Prices at Bet105
01:40 - The BEST Super Bowl promo
02:22 - Forest v Brighton
04:31 - Bournemouth v Liverpool
07:23 - Newcastle v Fulham
09:02 - Everton v Leicester
10:46 - Ipswich v Southampton
12:19 - Wolves v Aston Villa
14:36 - United v Crystal Palace
15:00 - Brentford v Tottenham
16:23 - Arsenal v Manchester City
18:43 - Chelsea v West Ham
20:19 - How much Ted has in play this weekend
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On this episode, Patick is joined by Hayden Van Brewer to discuss the latest transfer rumours around Europe. They start with Garnacho leaving Manchester United and look at the best potential landing spots. Does he fit in better at Chelsea, or should Napoli make a serious run at him? Next comes Brian Brobbey, who has been linked with West Ham this January. Does he fit in well with Graham Potters system and what skillset would he bring? The conversation turns to Victor Boniface, who has an offer from Saudi side Al Nassr. Could he make a difference on a top European team instead? We finish up with Rayan Cherki being linked to Newcastle and Albert Gronbaek's move to Southampton. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:11 - Garnacho appears DONE at Manchester United
02:33 - Clubs interested in Garnacho
04:11 - How he fits at Chelsea
05:20 - Whats a better fit, Chelsea or Napoli?
07:09 - The creativity at Chelsea suits Garnacho
08:01 - What about his defensive side?
09:26 - Garnacho is still only 21 + Amorim’s system needs money
11:16 - Brian Brobbey linked with West Ham
12:06 - Brobbey is a physical specimen + his skillset
13:39 - A replacement for Antonio?
14:53 - Would he fit in with Graham Potter?
16:51 - Why did he not work at Leipzig?
18:36 - Victor Boniface linked with Saudi
19:49 - Boniface could be a difference maker for a Europa/Champions League side
21:15 - Is the market wary of players with injury history?
23:41 - How do pro teams look at a players trends and injury concerns?
26:45 - Rashford linked to Barcelona, but he has lots of miles on his legs
27:33 - We’ve talked about this with Kobie Mainoo
28:20 - Is there a market opportunity? Or are older players too risky?
30:35 - Looking where others aren’t gives you the most chance to find an edge
32:01 - Rayan Cherki on the Market, linked with Newcastle
33:22 - Could Newcastle convert him like Joelinton?
34:36 - His skillset would help Newcastle unlock defenses
35:32 - Too much of a weakness in the press?
37:11 - A good partner for Aleksander Isak
37:40 - What club would suit Cherki the best?
39:35 - Albert Gronbaek to Southampton
40:30 - Gronbaek’s skillset
41:51 - The dutchification of The Transfer Flow
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick start by discussing Manchester City's 3-1 win over Chelsea this weekend. Khusanov struggled, Marmoush excelled, and Robert Sanchez needs to be replaced. The conversation turns to who will finish the Champions League spots. Can Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Forest overtake City and Chelsea, or will the giants regain their form? To round out the episode Patrick and Ted take a look at some transfer rumours. They start with Patrick Dorgu being linked to United, how he fits, and what his price should be. Then, 18-year-old Sverre Nypan has interest from many clubs. Is a move to Arsenal in the cards, or could he prefer a lower league before making the jump to the EPL? Make sure to stay tuned until the end of the episode for a behind the scenes look at Sir Alex Ferguson stories, Ted's invite to a Party, and Billy Beane.
Tickets for the party Ted mentions: https://zalevska.webflow.io/korporatyv-eng?fbclid=PAY2xjawIEdFpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABpop_xpK7gZiFyk8r-GL6W8n5Y_LZ3Q48xOv1TUyL7ZqeWPEp0htiwhz2Uw_aem_jG_OuTl6kQHs3Yp94__tJw
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:07 - Man City v Chelsea + Khusanov’s rough start
02:33 - Haaland’s creation during the game
03:10 - Gvardiol and a continuing theme for Pep
04:16 - Marmoush fit in instantly
06:00 - 2 teams who want to play with control, but neither had it
06:37 - What does this performance mean for Chelsea?
07:53 - Sanchez has the yips
08:36 - A change at keeper is surely coming
10:02 - Maresca has Chelsea playing to the level of their talent
11:31 - The importance of asking questions in football
13:01 - 2 instances where Ted called out bad transfers
15:06 - GM’s and DoF’s should be in the media regularly
16:09 - The race for Champions League spots in the Premier League
16:45 - Ted disagrees with Patrick
17:20 - Bournemouth's form despite an injury crisis
17:52 - Are Forest in trouble?
18:37 - Can Bournemouth add any players?
19:44 - City still have problems defensively and with the press
20:56 - Can city rebuild their press?
22:47 - So who makes it into the top 5?
23:59 - Who falls out of the CL spots?
25:07 - The second team out?
26:37 - Newcastle are the most fragile of the contenders
27:56 - Everything but the title race should be interesting to follow
28:35 - Patrick Dorgu to United?
29:25 - How much is he worth?
30:03 - He has traits to succeed in the EPL and at United
30:42 - He sometimes is able to coast, which hurts him
32:02 - He fits into a tough position at United
33:39 - Should they buy back Alvara Carreras instead?
34:39 - It looks like Garnacho will be gone eventually
35:12 - Sverre Nypan rumours
36:10 - Other Norwegian youngsters
37:05 - Nypan’s skillset + Does a weak league hurt him?
38:22 - What’s a comfortable price?
39:15 - Arsenal’s history of developing young talent
41:43 - The Premier League is back to attracting the best young talent
42:46 - Trying out new hosts!
44:27 - Behind the scenes footage (Sir Alex Ferguson story, Ted’s party invite for everyone, and Billy Beane?)
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On episode 9 of Variance Betting, Ted goes over his big results from last week, gives a crash course on discount bookies and Asian Handicaps, and shares his bets for Premier League Matchday 23!
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More info on Asian Handicap betting: https://www.betshoot.com/betting-guides/asian-handicap-betting/
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:10 - Running totals, last weeks recap, and updated bet size
04:29 - New courses coming this summer
05:13 - Why we prefer Discount Bookies + Bet105 promo
08:38 - Why Asian handicap betting?
12:00 - What is Variance Betting?
14:13 - Liverpool v Ipswich
15:34 - Wolves v Arsenal
16:41 - Brighton v Everton
18:17 - Southampton v Newcastle
18:54 - Bournemouth v Forest
19:45 - City v Chelsea
21:58 - Tottenham v Leicester
22:59 - Crystal Palace v Brentford
24:27 - Aston Villa v West Ham
25:47 - Fulham v United
26:45 - Total bets this week
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick roundup Champions League matchday 7 and preview the Wednesday night games. They start with Barcelona's 5-4 comeback over Benfica which featured featured a ton of chaos. The conversation turns to Atletico Madrid's 2-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen and why Julian Alvarez is such a good fit for Atletico. Next comes Bologna's 2-1 upset over Dortmund. Nuri Sahin was sacked, but can the next manager solve Dortmund's problems? In the transfer mill, Yoane Wissa has been linked to Nottingham Forest, but will Brentford sell the 28-year-old? , Ted and Patrick share their thoughts on the huge game between Manchester City and PSG tonight. Both teams are in the danger zone, but can one of them earn a much needed victory? The episode closes with Ted's bets for Wednesday's games, our search for a new host, and 18 simultaneous games next week. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:27 - The chaos of Benfica v Barcelona + Szczęsny tackle
02:56 - Pavlidis hat-trick + Barca’s high line
03:53 - Club Brugge v Juventus bore fest
05:35 - It’s difficult to play this Barca team for the first time
06:11 - Was Raphinha’s goal intentional or an accident?
07:40 - Benfica penalty shouts then Barca’s winning goal in the final minute
09:21 - Pavlidis as a potential transfer target
09:48 - Atletico Madrid v Leverkusen
10:52 - Ted’s recent run on Variance Betting
12:49 - Atletico’s unusual defensive style
13:58 - Alvarez is a perfect fit for Atletico + Griezmann story
15:38 - The winning goal
16:42 - Wissam Ben Yedder and tiny, square players
17:24 - The most interesting thing about Atletico this season
18:12 - Bologna v Dortmund and Nuri Sahin sacking
18:58 - Guirassy panenka penalty
19:45 - Dortmund can’t get out of their own way
20:58 - Roger Schmidt as next Dortmund manager?
21:30 - Would Andoni Iraola make sense?
22:38 - Yoane Wissa linked to Nottingham Forest
24:10 - Wissa’s skillset
24:54 - What should the price be?
26:27 - What would his role be at Forest?
28:51 - Patrick’s love for Thomas Frank
29:37 - PSG vs Man City
30:23 - PSG have struggled against physicality
31:37 - Weaknesses with City
32:51 - PSG have been what the critics say they are
33:33 - Can PSG’s runners trouble City?
34:19 - Marquinhos’ importance to City
35:08 - Real Madrid v Salzburg and Feyenoord v Bayern Munich
35:59 - Clash of styles between Inter Milan and Sparta Prague
36:20 - Arsenal can lock up top 8 vs. Dinamo Zagreb
37:36 - The gap from 26th to 27th may save one of PSG and City
38:07 - 18 games at the same time next week
39:19 - Help us find a Co-host!
40:50 - Subscribe to Variance Betting to increase Ted’s base bet size
#championsleague #barcelona #psg #manchestercity #brentford #nottinghamforest #football #soccer #realmadrid #transfernews #football #soccer #raphinha
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss the many strikers that have been linked to Arsenal. Is the answer Victor Osimhen, Benjamin Sesko, or someone else? Next, Erling Haaland signed an extension with Manchester City until 2034. Why did both City and Haaland choose to get this deal done? Then comes Romain Esse's move to Crystal Palace. Have Palace gotten enough credit for their recent decision making? The conversation moves to Rayan Cherki, with the hosts trying to find the best league and team for the talented, but hard to work with, Frenchman. The episode ends with discussion of the weekends Premier League games, Liverpool stepping on the gas, and how Manchester United fans should feel. Stick around to see Patrick and Ted discuss Ralph Lauren, Coco Channel, and just how hot Olivier Giroud is.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:56 - Strikers linked to Arsenal
02:38 - What Arsenal need and don’t need
04:58 - The type of player that fits their squad
06:01 - Does Victor Osimhen make sense?
07:22 - Why Osimhen is still at Napoli + what will they do with him
08:54 - What is a good price for Osimhen?
10:43 - Negatives with Osmihen?
12:09 - What about Benjamin Sesko?
14:42 - Lower shot volume since moving to Germany a worry?
15:51 - Is targeting pre-peak players a risk?
19:10 - Erling Haaland’s big extension with Man City
20:24 - City’s perspective for making this happen
22:46 - Perspective from Haaland’s side
24:59 - Could this hurt City in the long run?
26:44 - If Barcelona did this with Messi
27:45 - Champagne and Oysters for Fulham
28:28 - Ted and Patrick’s train beer preferences
30:09 - Romain Esse to Crystal Palace
31:30 - A good bet for the future
32:38 - Tottenham and Archie Gray
33:33 - Do Palace get enough credit?
34:42 - Glasner’s potential to be a top coach
36:53 - Rayan Cherki available to leave Lyon
37:35 - A talented but difficult to work with footballer
39:41 - He’s the type of player you dream for as a fan
40:47 - He needs to be on a team that can keep him focused
41:31 - The best league and team for him
43:04 - What club will make the next coaching move?
43:58 - Liverpool have stepped on the gas
46:08 - How good Virgil Van Dijk and Konate are
46:34 - The champions league race + how United fans should feel
48:32 - Behind the scenes (is Giroud hot, double denim, and Coco Channel)
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On the 8th episode of Variance Betting, Ted goes over how his bets have fared at the mid-way point of the season, gives you a way to get better prices on your bets, and goes over his EPL Matchday 22 picks.
Get better prices on Bet105: https://btone.servclick1move.com/?mid=248446_1462437&utm_source=www.thetransferflow.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=variance-betting-17-jan-2025&_bhlid=379169a1e683fa1a289c2ed91425b14a56c4246c
Ted's mid-season Variance Betting roundup: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/the-insider-update-on-variance-betting
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:33 - Why we paused
01:27 - Where to get better prices on your bets
03:24 - Why do you care?
04:44 - Ted’s results so far
06:08 - Betting £1 for every Variance Betting subscriber
07:13 - EPL matchday 22 picks
07:16 - Newcastle v Bournemouth
08:29 - Leicester v Fulham
09:45 - West Ham v Crystal Palace
10:43 - Brentford v Liverpool
11:39 - Arsenal v Aston Villa
13:48 - Everton v Tottenham
15:11 - Nottingham Forest v Southampton
16:21 - United v Brighton
17:05 - Ipswich v Man City
18:15 - Chelsea v Wolves
20:11- Join Variance Betting for more betting related content
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi start by discussing Arsenal closing in on signing Martin Zubimendi. How does he fit, do they need him, and will signing him cost them a player in the future? Next comes Barcelona’s 5-2 thrashing of Real Madrid. What caused Real Madrid issues in the game, would they be better off if they didn’t sign Mbappe, and can Vinicius Jr. and Mbappe have a good game at the same time? The episode ends by touching on Nkunku being linked to Bayern Munich and Loic Bade getting interest from Aston Villa. This is Ravi’s last episode with us, show him some love in the comments!
How to get a job in Football podcast: https://youtu.be/nI_qZHXA1eI
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:27 - Ravi announcement
01:19 - Arsenal close to signing Zubimendi
01:57 - Is this the player Arsenal need most?
03:41 - Too many defensive midfielders?
04:46 - Freed up wages, but what is the plan?
05:33 - Did the key in on Zubimendi too hard?
06:49 - Will they miss out on someone because of this transfer?
07:45 - Who is the player that sits?
09:53 - Are they building too hard into one style even if they get Nico Williams?
12:06 - Would Williams and Saka open up enough space?
13:55 - How the finances work
15:36 - What if they don’t get their ideal targets?
16:43 - Opportunity costs
17:17 - Barcelona thrash Real Madrid
18:35 - Multiple Madrid issues in this game
20:26 - Stats that can be misleading
21:24 - Should Ascensio have started?
22:31 - Real Madrid need immediate solutions
23:59 - Which of their attackers will sit?
24:54 - How easily Barca scored some of their goals
26:56 - Madrid turned Bellingham into a more of an attacker
28:23 - Pass accuracy against both Barcelona and Real Madrid
29:35 - Hansi Flick’s coaching job
30:18 - What if Madrid didn’t add Mbappe in the Summer?
31:30 - Can both Vinicius and Mbappe have a good game at the same time?
33:32 - Would a different coach be better for them?
34:43 - Xabi Alonso rumoured, but does the squad fit?
35:16 - What will make Real Madrid make a change
37:18 - Nkunku leaving Chelsea for Bayern Munich?
39:47 - Being able to cover for Musiala
41:27 - What should the price be?
42:22 - Chelsea cannot set the price too high
43:28 - Loic Bade linked with Aston Villa
46:17 - Concern from moving from La Liga to the Premier League
49:14 - Aston Villa have been busy
51:09 - Goodbye to Ravi
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick start by discussing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s move from Napoli, potential suitors, and how much he should cost. Next, Manchester United are having a fire sale, but will anyone be interested in the players they are offering? Then, Manchester City are close to completing a few deals, but are they overspending? And how will Pep Guardiola be able fit Omar Marmoush into the squad? The episode ends with Everton firing Sean Dyche (and their fans getting mad at Ted) and a potential move for Kyle Walker to AC Milan? Enjoy!
Ted's Friday Variance Betting Column: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/the-insider-update-on-variance-betting
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:18 - Khvicha Kvaratskhelia set to leave Napoli
02:37 - Napoli need to sell him for budget reasons
03:48 - Liverpool, United, and PSG are alleged suitors
04:57 - Why would PSG be interested?
06:46 - Could Ligue 1 be a draw for Kvara?
07:16 - Kvara vs. Barcola
08:54 - The problem with Kvara’s shots
10:27 - His shot map + worse radar from last season
11:12 - A Garnacho replacement for United?
13:02 - Atletico Madrid’s form
14:30 - Manchester United’s fire sale
15:14 - Kobbie Mainoo’s fan perception + United’s incompetence
17:52 - How would you price Mainoo and Garnacho?
19:08 - What to do with Mainoo
20:46 - Amorim and United are in damage limitation mode
21:35 - What makes sense for Garnacho?
25:30 - Man City getting closer to a few deals for BIG money
26:43 - Should City fans temper expectations for Marmoush?
27:34 - Why does he have a low dribble rate?
28:15 - Marmoush radar + shot map and what they tell us
29:21 - How does Pep fit him in?
30:32 - Everton fans are mad at Ted
31:15 - Sean Dyche did one of the best managerial jobs this season?
32:49 - He changed his style to keep Everton up
34:55 - Kyle Walker to AC Milan?
36:50 - Variance Betting information
38:04 - Behind the scenes
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi start by discussing Randal Kolo Muani's move from PSG, teams that he's linked to, and what his best fit would be. Then comes West Ham, who have a rift between manager Julen Lopetegui and sporting director Tim Steidten. Can it be fixed, or is the situation too far gone? The episode ends with a look at two new options for the Arsenal attack, Kang-in Lee and Mikkel Damsgaard. Which player is the best option for Arsenal, how much will they cost, and will Arsenal just wait for Nico Williams in the summer? Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:41 - Randall Kolo Muani is on the market
04:06 - Kolo Muani as a player
05:58 - What are the questions with him?
07:34 - How Kolo Muani’s age impacts what teams will get from him
09:36 - Comparison to Nicolas Jackson
12:06 - Kolo Muani’s best fit
13:27 - Do Arsenal, United or Spurs make sense?
14:28 - A Timo Werner replacement for Spurs?
16:17 - A rift at West Ham
17:41 - Julen Lopetegui and Tim Steidten drama
19:21 - West Ham’s Summer window
20:34 - How does this rift between manager and Sporting Director impact the club?
22:44 - Is a Lopetegui sacking inevitable?
24:03 - Did Moyes keep West Ham together?
25:02 - 2 new targets for Arsenal
25:36 - Kang-in Lee’s history
26:49 - How Lee’s role has changed at PSG
28:18 - What’s his best position?
29:50 - Would he be worth the price?
32:15 - Will Arsenal just wait for Nico Williams in the Summer?
33:28 - The value of a young player who has played multiple roles
36:05 - Mikkel Damsgaard’s history
36:49 - Damsgaard’s skillset
38:02 - He makes sense as a backup
38:56 - Low pass success rate, but high chances created
39:57 - Comparing Lee and Damsgaard
41:32 - Arsenal do not dribble much, but how does Nico Williams fit in?
43:13 - Arsenal run a NBA half-court offense
44:52 - The differences between Liverpool and Arsenal
46:36 - Arteta will have to “open the playbook” for Williams
48:30 - Do Arsenal need a more diverse attacking profile?
49:14 - The constant push and pull of sporting directors and managers
50:22 - Bob Voulgaris’ strategy for Castellon
52:26 - Different philosophies to combat variance
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick begin by discussing Frankfurt forward Omar Marmoush. Who will sign him, how much will it cost, and what is his best fit? Then, Donyell Malen has been linked with Aston villa, but are there better teams for him to sign with? Next comes City, who have been linked with 20-year-old CB Abdulkadir Khosanov. Is he their Kyle Walker replacement? After City, Ted goes in-depth on the state of pricing in football, who benefits and suffers, and how owners can handle it differently. The episode ends with discussion of Liverpool v. United, Crystal Palace v Chelsea,Southampton v Brighton. Stay till the end for an easter egg, plus Patrick teaching us how to pronounce Abdulkadir Khosanov.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:00 - Omar Marmoush linked with multiple teams
02:37 - Marmoush’s history and skillset
05:23 - Does he make sense for Liverpool?
06:16 - What does he excel at?
09:24 - Marmoush’s fit at Arsenal, City and United
13:05 - What price for him?
14:39 - Villa linked with Donyell Malen
15:30 - Malen’s traits
17:12 - The rumoured fee
18:05 - His career numbers + time at Arsenal
19:25 - More fun destinations for Malen
20:00 - City linked with 20-year-old CB Abdulkadir Khosanov
21:20 - Kyle walker replacement?
22:27 - Is Benfica’s Antonio Silva the long-term replacement?
23:23 - How do city approach the window?
24:10 - City’s last few games
26:14 - We don’t know what teams should be pricing players at right now
28:21 - We’re already seeing prices come down from their peaks
29:16 - Who benefits and suffers from this?
32:33 - How do owners handle this?
36:05 - Will we see teams start to sell aggressively?
36:48 - Ben Doak linked with Palace and Ipswich
38:22 - Should Liverpool sell him?
39:53 - What should the price be if they do sell?
41:04 - Liverpool vs. Man United Thoughts
43:56 - United have a lot of mismatched toys right now
44:28 - Brentford's 5-0 win over Southampton
45:16 - Brentford tried to maximize transition opportunities
46:08 - Chelsea draw Crystal Palace, 1-1
47:02 - Chelsea controlled the game pretty well
48:13 - Chelsea’s Sanchez problem
50:03 - Arsenal were pretty poor over the weekend
51:11 - Ted’s easter egg for those who stick around
52:40 - B-roll (Trying to pronounce Abdulkadir Khosanov)
#premierleague #transfernews #liverpool #manchestercity #arsenal #manchesterunited #chelsea
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss what Arsenal best course of action after Bukayo Saka's injury. Can they replace him, who are their best options, and is the replacement already in the squad? Next, they move to Barcelona failing to register Dani Olmo. Can Barca fix this issue, or will Olmo leave the squad? Along the way they discuss Virgil Van Dijk and Mo Salah's extensions, Marcus Thuram replacing Darwin Nunez, and Joshua Zirkzee's struggles. Lastly, Nottingham Forest have been on an incredible run in the Premier League. Will they finish in a Champions League spot? Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:45 - Games over the break
03:13 - A good time to have a great Academy
03:25 - Saka’s injury
04:21 - Salah’s incredible run of form (James Yorke tweet)
05:06 - Alexander Isak’s story
07:18 - Erling Halaand’s transfer history
09:26 - What should Arsenal do about Saka’s injury?
10:58 - Buying a replacement vs. playing youngsters
11:52 - Is Omar Marmoush an option?
12:55 - Could the be after Marcus Rashford?
14:03 - Teams taking the money vs waiting for the “right” price (Chelsea…)
15:34 - Names that could be Saka replacements
15:40 - Does Bryan Mbeumo make sense?
18:11 - He has high risk reward passing style
19:18 - Mathys Tel on Loan?
20:28 - Evan Ferguson to bolster the attack?
21:09 - Will Brighton sell?
22:55 - Leroy Sane as a direct replacement?
23:46 - Sane brings a broad skillset, but is he too old
26:55 - Barcelona fail to register Dani Olmo
27:51 - Barca are the only thing to make Ravi angry
29:18 - Hansi Flick should be furious + Olmo Landing spots
31:08 - La Masia is their saving grace and will they scapegoat Frenkie de Jong
32:27 - de Jong = Bobby Bonilla?
33:37 - Manchester United players are “available”
34:07 - Should City sign him + What is his actual position?
37:03 - Giggs hamstring story
38:38 - Marcus Thuram to Liverpool?
41:14 - Extensions for VVD and Salah?
42:29 - How does Thuram fit in the squad?
44:37 - Joshua Zirkzee saga continues
45:34 - Missing a lot of big chances means you are in good positions a lot
47:18 - Can Nottingham Forest continue their run of form?
50:28 - Forest’s attack is fragile, will it cost them?
52:49 - A coin flip for top 4 or for top 5?
54:40 - How Forest have won their recent games
56:32 - Going full circle
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On this episode, Patrick and Ted start by discussing Liverpool's 6-3 battering of Spurs. Mo Salah is ageless, should Ange Postecoglou change his style of play, and do Liverpool have the best attack in the world? Then, Southampton have hired Ivan Juric as manager. Who is he, what is his style, and how is he different than Russell Martin? After that comes Arsenal, have they finally flipped the switch and fixed their attack? Next, Barcelona lost 2-1 to Atletico Madrid. Are Barcelona in crisis, or do the numbers tell a different story? And finally, Manchester United lost 3-0 to Bournemouth, but is there reason for United fans to be hopeful? Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:01 - Liverpool Defeat Spurs, 6-3
03:21 - Injured defense against the best frontline in the world?
04:21 - How Liverpool created their chances
05:15 - Ange Postecoglou’s style of play
07:51 - Ange won’t change his philosophy
09:51 - How good would Spurs be with one elite midfielder?
11:42 - Mo Salah is ridiculous
13:09 - It’s getting hard to see how Liverpool doesn’t win the title
14:29 - Southampton hire Ivan Juric as manager
17:01 - Differences between Juric and Russell Martin
18:21 - The new generation of Italian football
19:03 - Big Shakespeare fan
19:38 - We fixed Arsenal
21:07 - Gabriel Jesus’ last 2 games
21:47 - Arsenal played much for attacking football
22:38 - Kai Havertz is very versatile
23:49 - Can Arsenal find the right balance?
24:28 - Saliba had a poor game
25:22 - How teams are trying to stop Arsenal’s set piece advantage
28:20 - The more variation you throw at them the better
30:13 - Calling basketball plays in open play
31:09 - Ben White/ Cristiano Ronaldo’s approach to getting open for crosses
32:11 - Saka injured in this game, should fast-attacking teams un-invert their wingers?
34:26 - Are Barcelona in Crisis after 2-1 loss to Atletico?
35:44 - The numbers are still good despite the results
37:57 - Lamine Yamal was out injured
39:00 - Go and watch Pedri in this game
40:04 - United are the leakiest club in the league
41:21 - Man United are in a multi-year rebuild
42:29 - They’re trending well on Defense
45:19 - Ted’s request for the listeners
#liverpool #barcelona #arsenal #tottenham #manchesterunited #saka #lamineyamal #pedri #arteta #angepostecoglou #atleticomadrid
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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi start by Discussing Vincent Kompany's tenure at Bayern Munich. They lead the Bundesliga, but have struggled in big matches. What's the best way to evaluate Kompany's performance? Then, the conversation switched to Lyon, who need to make 100M in sales this January to avoid being sent to Ligue 2. How has the happened, who will they sell, and what teams might those players go to? Finally, the Serie A title race has been close since the start of the season, but is it now down to 3 teams? Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:06 - Vincent Kompany’s tenure as Bayern manager
02:51 - What would be a successful first season?
04:14 - Lack of success in Big Matches
06:49 - They’ve missed key players for multiple matches
08:00 - Do they have the squad for Kompany?
10:26 - Bayern by the numbers this season
13:35 - How Kompany has approached this season
16:15 - How do you evaluate Kompany?
17:33 - Should Bayern manage expectations?
19:30 - Do you evaluate Kompany solely on big matches?
21:36 - What positions should Bayern target in January?
23:15 - Kimmich has played the most minutes and may leave
24:50 - Why Lyon need to make 100M in January
26:15 - Lyon have spent money poorly
27:50 - Lyon are not a team that spend big money historically
30:29 - Players Lyon can sell for significant money (Caqueret and Cherki)
33:05 - Why hasn’t Cherki left Lyon yet?
35:52 - Georges Mikautadze
36:48 - Malick Fofana is a great prospect
38:46 - Ernest Nuamah
39:45 - What club for Fofana and Nuamah?
40:51 - The Serie A title race
41:29 - Is it a 3-team race (Inter Milan, Napoli and Lazio)?
44:00 - Why Fiorentina is likely not a challenger
44:38 - Napoli’s advantage
45:27 - Upcoming schedules for the top teams
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On this episode, Ted and Patrick start by discussing Arsenal's recent run of poor results. What's going wrong, how can they fix it, and do they need to add someone in January? Next, Russell Martin and Gary O'Neil were sacked this weekend. Why did it happen and should the firings have come sooner? The conversation moves to the Manchester Derby after United edge out a 2-1 win over City thanks to 2 late goals. What's wrong with City, can Pep fix it, and just how good is Amad Diallo? To end the episode they discuss Diego Gomez' move from Inter Miami to Brighton, marking the first move of the January window. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:06 - What’s wrong with Arsenal?
02:22 - An accumulation of imperfect choices
04:07 - Lack of squad depth
06:31 - Injuries have been a factor, but they have played conservatively
07:59 -The piece they’re missing
09:51 - Martinelli
11:30 - Why Odegaard might be tired + stories from Ted
15:06 - Should Arteta be playing more aggressively?
16:30 - The risk/reward trade off of pushing for more goals
18:16 - What kind of player should Arsenal target in January?
21:28 - Russell Martin FINALLY sacked by Southampton
24:21 - Why did they keep him so long?
26:01 - Wolves Firing Gary O’Neil
29:18 - How many EPL teams allowed over 60 xG last season?
30:09 - Late drama in the Manchester Derby
31:09 - City couldn’t get anything going
32:21 - Lack of quality at DM and fullback are hurting Pep
33:52 - Can pep fix it?
34:32 - Can they buy their way out of it in January?
35:17 - Amad Diallo
35:57 - The first transfer of the window: Gomez to Brighton
36:54 - Neymar to join Lionel Messi at Inter Miami?
38:41 - Brighton’s strategy of stacking up useful talent
39:59 - It may allow them to make consistent Champions League runs soon
41:51 - Ted’s recent run on Variance Betting
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- Visa fler
