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Jean-Claude Juncker, ex-head of the EU Commission, once famously said that policymakers know what is the right thing to do, but don't know how to get re-elected if they do it. That is true too much of the time. But is there a unique opportunity for the Irish government, for once to do the right thing and to be rewarded for it at the ballot box?
Finance Minister McGrath has promised a tax-cutting budget. Is he missing a trick? Housing has such political salience in Ireland, if he threw the kitchen sink at building more homes instead of tax cuts, maybe that is also a vote-winning strategy? And also an opportunity to give Sinn Fein a good kicking while they are down?
Meanwhile, data emerges that shows the Irish tax system becoming even more unbalanced. That's storing up problems for the future.
San Francisco hasn't had an earthquake lately but its commercial property sector is crashing. Vacancy rates are probably higher that the 30+% reported as some big companies are effectively squatting in very under-utilised space. Why not just covert all this space into housing? Lots of other cities, including Irish ones, are in the same position.
Rishi Sunak's damage limitation exercises backfire. Labour can't believe its luck.
Keir Starmer's irish influencers.
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Inflation falls in the UK but *only* to 2.3%. Cue weeping and wailing and much hot air. The narcissism of small differences.
Does anybody know what really causes inflation? Does the ECB understand the connection (or lack of) between interest rates and inflation?
The human aspects of all this are often lost in dry discussions of monetary policy and inflation. But the human dimension is real, big and too often ignored by central banks.
Nvidia, AI, data centres and the nuttiness of stock markets.
Housing policy contains asymmetrical risks: building too few is much more dangerous than building too many.
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Opinion polls on both sides of the Atlantic tell fascinating stories. Sinn Fein has lost momentum. Have they peaked too soon? Rishi Sunak's Tories are now polling at lower levels that the nadir of Liz Truss' government. That really is some going. Trump breaks wind audibly in court, hears stories about his sexual peccadillos and goes up in the polls.
It is said that SF are suffering because 'they have let their electorate down because of immigration'. Right wing parties everywhere, including Ireland, are on the rise because of the immigration issue. Yet right wing governments in power in the UK and Italy show how hard - impossible even - 'solving' immigration is.
Is it really true that immigrants take jobs? Spoiler alert: no.
What are SF's actual policies? Are they like the UK's Labour party, a policy-free zone? Long on promises, short on what they will do?
We are almost certainly still filling our cars with Russian fuel.
China and Russia deepen ties. China enables the Russian war machine. China has the best batteries.
Global stock markets continue to tell us: 'don't worry, be happy!
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We might need 80,000 new houses a year - or we might not. It all depends on so many imponderables.
One of them being the level of immigration. We now see that everywhere as a problem to be solved. Is it solvable?
Biden is trying to keep cheap Chinese electronic vehicles out of the US. Europe is thinking about doing the same. That's all to protect domestic car manufacturers who don't know how to produce cheap EVs. The Chinese do. We are repeating the mistakes of the 1970s when Japanese car manufacturers figured out how to make cars that consumers want. Western car companies, by and large, didn't know why production techniques that dated from the 1930s were no longer fit for purpose.
Solution: copy Chinese IP! They've been doing it to us for years. Return the favour!
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In conversation with Professor of Experimental Brain Research, Shane O'Mara.
Robert Kennedy Junior says a worm has eaten part of his brain. Is this possible? Yes - but his 'brain fog' and other symptoms could have been caused by something else. Partly eaten or not, his possible brain injuries are not likely to have led to a predisposition to conspiracy theories. RFK is a prominent anti-vaxxer, for instance.
Why do so many of us fall for conspiracy theories? Belonging, group hugs and tribalism are part of the answer. We take cognitive short cuts that help us ignore objective reality.
Anti-vaxxers have, in some cases, just forgotten what disease looks like. Shane reminds us of the actual cheer that went around the world when the polio vaccine was first announced.
Lots of protests are around at the moment. Protest is a uniquely human behaviour - why bother when so few protests actually elicit change? Generally, they don't work. It's that group hug thing again. The "collective effervescence" of being part of a crowd.
All this and more in another conversation with the brain expert!
Shane O'Mara | Professor of Experimental Brain Research | School of Psychology and Institute of Neuroscience | Trinity College, Dublin - the University of Dublin,D02 PN40, IrelandHis new book: Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds His newsletter: BrainPizzaBecome a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.
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The economic consequences of the war in Gaza have so far been very limited. The oil price has been well-behaved, all things considered.
But that war is shaping up to be a forever war. That's the logical conclusion that flows from observing two sides committed to the other's destruction.
If the war costs Biden the election then another logical conclusion is that the great Bidenomics experiment is over. There is a lot of doubt about the fiscal sustainability of Biden's economic program but not enough recognition is given to its phenomenal success.
We discuss the incredibly hard hitting article by Martin Wolf that lays out how the US is heading for despotism and how we are, indeed, all heading for disaster if Trump is elected. It's scary stuff.
Everything is connected to everything else. Macron really is right.
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Unemployment edges up on both sides of the Atlantic - things are definitely showing early signs of slowing down.
Whatever the outlook there are very good reasons to quietly ditch the 2% inflation targets that apply to the FED, BoE and ECB - particularly in the US, too much harm will be caused by a drive to 2%. Quietly adopt 3% inflation targets and get on with interest rate cuts. That 2% number was plucked out of thin air in the first place, decades ago, and has outlasted its usefulness.
Rishi Sunak came to office promising much and delivering next to nothing. His political skills are next to non-existent. A strange thing to say about a Prime Minister. But he staked his premiership - and electoral chances - on a target that not enough people care about and a target that he couldn't meet. A more skilled politician would have asked 'what do most voters actually want?'. He asked the bat-shit crazy wing of the Tory Party that question and, surprise surprise, got a bat-shit crazy answer.
Emmanuel Macron is right: unless Europe rearms, Putin will wage war on us. He already is - it will just get nastier and closer.
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A packed podcast:
It may be the ultimate social faux pas, but dare we say the latest Revenue annual report contains a wealth of fascinating data?
Back taxes owed by SMEs could be - maybe are - a real problem
Short-termism: anyone wondering why some companies and countries don't inest enough in themselves need look no further than META's (Facebook) results this week. The shares tanked because the tech giant announced a huge capital spending program (mostly in AI). Financial markets want one thing only: instant gratification. That translates as "show us the cash". Dividends, share buybacks and increases in revenues are the golden trifecta that leads to higher share prices. But investment means spending cash. That's the big no-no. The paradox, of course, is that the only thing that leads to long-term growth in dividends, share buybacks and revenues is investment. Companies and countries that stint on investment don't grow. You couldn't make it up.
If (hopefully a big if) another European war is on the way, is being a member of the EU and remaining neutral mutually inconsistent?
And all the latest data!
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The Irish government has released its latest assessment of where the economy is heading. It looks like. a forlorn attempt to dampen expectations ahead of another giveaway budget in a few months time. The last before the general election.
The golden goose will someday stop laying its eggs. What will future generations think of us, what we did the largesses generously donated by the multinational tax boom? Will we be 'grateful Norwegians', now rich because they saved their windfall taxes (from oil). Or will we resemble the 'morose British' who blew all their windfall oil taxes on what?
Is there much more capacity for extra housebuilding than is conventionally thought?
Will house prices ever fall to 'affordable' levels, even with extra supply. Or were houses just 'the wrong price' a generation ago?
Chris takes the other side of the IMF forecast bets: we are approaching peak short term growth optimism and the IMF is way too pessimistic about the medium term
At least Ireland has a fiscal debate grounded in arithmetic. The UK's fiscal conversation is total hokum.
And all the latest economic data
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Latest opinion polls - and a bit of political crystal ball gazing - points to no one party getting more than 30% of the vote at the upcoming Irish general election.
Why is that and what might it mean? Will Ireland 'Go Dutch' (or Belgian...)? Are we in for weeks or even months of prolonged coalition negotiations?
The deteriorating geopolitical situation might give voters pause for thought about the sort of politicians they want. As talk of WW3 gets louder, will Ireland want to be led by SF?
What is for sure is that SF policies will be subject to forensic scrutiny - unlike last time.
Ban Tik Tok? Chinese Communist Party or Elon Musk - who is the better owner of social media companies?
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Initial financial market reaction to big events is often wrong
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