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David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, and Aaron Rupar, publisher of Public Notice, held their monthly live chat on Thursday to share their insights on some of the most important stories in American politics, including:
* Why Trump calling himself “king” matters—and how New York is fighting back.
* What it actually means to have a constitutional crisis, and why we’re in one already.
* Why Democrats in Congress should not bail out Republicans on any votes, and much more.
David and Aaron also took a wide range of questions from those who participated live.
If you missed the event, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript.
Tune in at 2 PM ET on the second Thursday of each month to join in the discussion and fire away with your questions! Our next event will take place on March 14. You can participate by downloading the free Substack app or by clicking the link in the email we send out when we go live.
If you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, click the button below:
And if you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:
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The most important election between now and November will take place on April 1 in Wisconsin, when liberals will defend their hard-won majority on the state Supreme Court. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is veteran Badger State strategist Joe Zepecki, who breaks down every aspect of the race for us: who the candidates are, what kind of attack ads each side is running, and how Elon Musk's seven-figure cash infusion threatens to end Democrats' financial dominance. Plus, why you'll want to keep an eye on Green Bay as the bellwether on election night.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive into the Minnesota Senate race, which was just transformed by Democrat Tina Smith's retirement. They explain why, contrary to conventional wisdom, retirements can actually be a good thing and discuss the troubles the GOP is likely to have in recruiting a top-shelf candidate. As if to make their point, one of the strongest possible Republicans they mention, Rep. Pete Stauber, announced he wouldn't run just after the Davids finished recording!
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It’s the third anniversary of The Downballot podcast this week, and it’s our pleasure to welcome Semafor’s Dave Weigel on the show!
Dave's ubiquitous coverage of elections has been indispensable reading for years. In our conversation, he details how his attention to grassroots politics has helped him build unusual levels of trust with so many sources on both sides of the aisle. He also offers a thoughtful guide to handling the news onslaught that's accompanied the second Trump era and explains why races for party chair—whether of the DNC or RNC—seldom bring ideological shifts.
Meanwhile, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into the wreckage in New York City, where a letter from Trump's Justice Department letting Mayor Eric Adams off the hook has blown up all semblance of the rule of law. But if there's any recompense, it's that Adams' political career looks just as doomed now as it did a week ago. They also catch listeners up on the latest regarding a New York special election and the resolution of a long power struggle in the Minnesota House.
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A special election will soon be underway to succeed Republican Elise Stefanik after she’s confirmed as ambassador to the United Nations, but New York Democrats are considering delaying it from April to June—or possibly even later. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay break down the implications of Empire State Democrats finding a backbone. We also discuss big decisions by potential candidates in Michigan and Ohio, which will have both Senate and governor races next year.
We’re also talking to Campaign Legal Center Executive Director Adav Noti for an update on the state of campaign finance in 2024—and it’s not great! We discuss how Citizens United and the appointment of an anti-enforcement Democratic commissioner on the FEC led to the Wild West of campaign finance we know today. However, we also look at some positive laws and changes at the state level and discuss how reform could move forward at the federal level in the future.
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It's only January, but it's been a hell of a week for downballot news, starting with a massive Democratic upset in an Iowa special election. We're covering the astonishing result and all its implications in depth on the latest episode of The Downballot podcast, including what it might mean for upcoming races like the pivotal April 1 showdown for the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dive into the Michigan Senate race, which was just scrambled by Gary Peters' surprise retirement, and the contest for governor in Arizona, where a far-right congressman's bid could be music to Democratic ears. They wrap up with two new state Supreme Court rulings: one positive in Minnesota, and one very troubling in North Carolina for anyone who believes in democracy.
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Our guest this week on The Downballot podcast is Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, who tells us all about the importance of the job—and about his plans for electing more folks like him as the new chair of the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association. These number-twos hold many additional roles, whether as tie-breakers in legislatures, state election administrators, and more. Davis highlights top races in 2025 and 2026, including Arizona, which will elect its first lieutenant governor ever next year.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss a new effort by Virginia Democrats to pass amendments enshrining abortion, same-sex marriage, and voting rights into the state constitution, illustrating how states will once again be the central battlefront for protecting democracy in the second Trump era. And they explain why new Senate appointments in Ohio and Florida could yield messy GOP primaries—and a Democratic opportunity.
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The Minnesota House wound up evenly tied after the November elections, but Republicans say they're entitled to run the chamber and pick a speaker. We're unpacking this bizarre turn of events on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, an ongoing saga that's seen Democrats respond by playing hardball and walking out to deny the GOP a quorum. Will the courts step in, or will they leave lawmakers to resolve the deadlock themselves? It's all unfolding as we speak.
We're also talking to data journalist Derek Willis, whose work collecting detailed election results across the country is near and dear to our nerdy hearts. Willis notes that this is a particularly American problem—most other countries centralize their election data—and explains the often-painful process for gathering results, which can even involve deciphering handwritten numbers. But the efforts yield critical insights into our democracy, so if you'd like to get involved, be sure to check out the all-volunteer Open Elections.
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David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, and Aaron Rupar, publisher of Public Notice, held their monthly live chat on Thursday to share their insights on some of the most important stories in American politics, including:
* Why Donald Trump’s dangerous talk of invading Greenland and Panama shouldn’t distract us from the upcoming fights over his atrocious cabinet nominees
* How Democrats should handle Trump’s deranged lies about the California wildfires, and why a bona fide progressive media is so critical
* Big special election wins for Democrats in Virginia that saw them hold their one-seat majorities in the legislature—and what they might mean for 2025 and 2026
David and Aaron also took a variety of questions from those who participated live.
If you missed the event, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript.
Tune in at 2 PM ET on the second Thursday of each month to join in the discussion and fire away with your questions! Our next event will take place on Feb. 13. You’ll need the free Substack app to participate.
If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:
And if you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, click the button below:
Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe -
The Downballot podcast is back from our break, and already we've got election results to discuss on this week's show! Democrats in Virginia started the year off right with solid wins in two special elections that allowed them to retain their narrow majorities in both houses of the state legislature while Republicans actually underperformed in a third race.
And of course, North Carolina is once again top of mind as Republicans move forward with a plan to overturn the results of last year's race for the state Supreme Court—even though two recounts confirmed that Democrats won. We're also digging into the wild situation in the Minnesota House, where Democrats are threatening a walkout if Republicans refuse to accept the power-sharing deal the parties began hammering out after the chamber wound up tied following the November elections.
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We are delighted to wrap up the year with our presentation of the Second Annual Downballot Awards! We honor both the highlights and the lowlights of a wild election cycle.
Who will take home the prize for Most Embarrassing Use of AI? Least Impactful Revenge Tour? Most Humiliating Fall from Grace? But it's not just razzies: Tune in to learn who won Most Impressive Overperformance, the Iron Bladder Award, and the top accolade, Best Campaign!
The most important honor, though, goes to you, our listeners, for your steadfast support all year long. We could not do this without you. We are truly grateful.
As promised, here's a link to the winner of our Best Ad and Worst Ad awards. And if you'd like to contribute to our end-of-year fundraiser on ActBlue, just click here. Thank you!
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It's been a good news/bad news week for Democrats and democracy in North Carolina, so we're diving deep into the muck to explain it all on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. A second recount upheld Democrat Allison Riggs' victory in the ultra-close race for the state Supreme Court, and officials threw out challenges from her Republican opponent seeking to invalidate some 60,000 ballots.
But the GOP also overrode Gov. Roy Cooper's veto to pass an obscene power grab that's as breathtaking as it is blatant. Just one example: They're moving the board of elections from the governor to the state auditor. Why? Simply because Democrats won the former office last month while Republicans won the latter. The rest of the bill is even more atrocious. Co-hosts David Beard and David Nir will tell you all about it.
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The last unresolved House race of 2024 is finally in the books, giving Democrats a victory that will narrow the GOP's already precarious margin even further. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the ramifications of Republicans' tiny majority, which will either result in gridlock or further dependence on Democratic votes. The Davids also discuss Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan's decision to abandon the Democratic Party and run for governor as an independent—though it might not prove to be a catastrophe for Democrats.Joining us for our deep dive this week is Jessica Mackler, president of EMILYs List, a political mainstay that's been devoted to electing pro-choice Democratic women for nearly 40 years. Mackler highlights endorsees who overperformed to win tough races, like Michigan's Elissa Slotkin, while noting that vocal support for abortion rights is only one part of a winning campaign. She also looks toward upcoming races EMILYs is focused on and shares some thoughts on top-shelf candidates who could run again after falling just short in 2024.
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In a stunning turn of events almost two weeks after Election Day, Democrat Allison Riggs surged to a narrow lead in her bid for a full term on the North Carolina Supreme Court after trailing by as many as 10,000 votes. David Nir and David Beard discuss this dramatic turnaround on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—but caution that legal challenges before a far-right judiciary await.
Please consider supporting The Downballot with a paid subscription today.
The Davids also talk to one of their favorite congressional reporters, Abby Livingston of Puck News, who shares her views on the gap between Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP ticket in this year's elections. Was it a special "Trump sauce" or candidate quality that saw them diverge? The answer might be both! Livingston also pulls back the curtain on the anonymous Democratic "bedwetters" who constantly fret to reporters, explaining that most are at least one step removed from any actual campaigns.
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While the House was just called for Republicans, the GOP's majority will be incredibly slender—and it's about to get worse. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into two uncalled races that could flip to Democrats, further narrowing the GOP's advantage. But worse still is Donald Trump, who's been raiding the House for his cabinet, prompting Mike Johnson to beg him to stop. So what did Trump do? Why, he nominated Matt Gaetz for attorney general, of course.
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It may seem hard to believe after Tuesday night, but Democrats still have a shot at winning a majority in the House. With many races uncalled and many votes still to be counted, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard analyze the Democrats’ path to 218 seats on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. Hang on tight, though, since it could be a while before final results are known.
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America’s democratic institutions have been put to the test in recent years, but are they robust enough to withstand what’s coming next?
On Thursday, I joined with Aaron Rupar of Public Notice for a live discussion as part of Substack’s Election Dialogues series to examine the threats our democracy faces in the 2024 elections and beyond. We hit a wide variety of topics, including voter suppression, election subversion, and Donald Trump’s dark plans for a second term.
We also took questions from our viewers throughout the event, which was a huge success—a thousand people participated! If you weren’t able to catch us live, though, you can listen to the complete recording.
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At long last, the election is almost here, and there are thousands of races to follow. That's why we're lucky to have the supremely knowledgeable Jeff Singer, our managing editor, join us on the last pre-election edition of The Downballot podcast to give us an hour-by-hour overview of the key contests to watch. Jeff highlights the top Senate battles and critical House races that will likely determine control of both chambers, starting when the first polls close in Indiana all the way until voting wraps in Alaska.
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Few people can cut through the noise like Josh Marshall, founder of the seminal Talking Points Memo and O-est of the O.G. political analysts. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, Josh explains how he concluded that Donald Trump's unorthodox get-out-the-vote operation is probably a mess—and why it could harm Republicans further down the ticket. He also tells us about some of the House races on the bubble that he's keeping an eye on, which seem to point to a solid Democrat year despite the polls.
That's a topic co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also delve into at the top of the show, when they discuss the "triage" now underway in the battle for the House. Big-money groups are starting to reposition their resources for the final two weeks, and so far, almost all of the moves have favored Democrats. Special elections have also brought good news for Democrats, as Nir detailed in a new article this week, so which pieces of evidence should you believe? As the Davids explain, it might just be all of the above.
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New fundraising reports show Democrats absolutely obliterating Republicans up and down the ballot, while a leaked super PAC memo indicates some serious GOP anxiety about Senate race polling. That all looks like good news for Democrats, but polls still show an exceedingly close contest at the top of the ticket, so which pile of evidence is pointing the right way? It's the central question we're discussing on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—and the answer could very well be "both."
Our guest this week is Robert Reynolds Gambhir of Vote Rev, an organization that harnesses behavioral science to boost civic engagement. Robert tells us about Vote Rev's methods for enhancing traditionally impersonal get-out-the-vote efforts by asking voters to reach out to their friends. They dub the tactic "vote tripling," and campaigns are currently deploying it in the runup to the November elections.
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Here's a big election on Nov. 5 you won't want to sleep on: Puerto Rico, a territory home to 3.2 million U.S. citizens, is holding a plebiscite on the question of statehood. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explain the vote—and the 126 years of colonial history leading up to it—is George Laws Garcia, executive director of the Puerto Rico Statehood Council. Laws Garcia details the huge disadvantages Puerto Ricans face due to the island's current status and says they point to a victory for statehood. And should it become a state, he intriguingly tells us why he thinks Puerto Rico would defy conventional wisdom and wind up a swing state.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the House battlefield, which remains very small but, inch by inch, is growing—most notably in South Texas, where Democrats are making a play for a heavily Latino, GOP-trending district that they left by the wayside last cycle. Then the Davids dissect a strange poll from a strange candidate in a swingy House race before checking back in on Indiana, where both Democrats and Republicans are suddenly treating the open governor's race like it's genuinely competitive.
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