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We are delighted to wrap up the year with our presentation of the Second Annual Downballot Awards! We honor both the highlights and the lowlights of a wild election cycle.
Who will take home the prize for Most Embarrassing Use of AI? Least Impactful Revenge Tour? Most Humiliating Fall from Grace? But it's not just razzies: Tune in to learn who won Most Impressive Overperformance, the Iron Bladder Award, and the top accolade, Best Campaign!
The most important honor, though, goes to you, our listeners, for your steadfast support all year long. We could not do this without you. We are truly grateful.
As promised, here's a link to the winner of our Best Ad and Worst Ad awards. And if you'd like to contribute to our end-of-year fundraiser on ActBlue, just click here. Thank you!
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It's been a good news/bad news week for Democrats and democracy in North Carolina, so we're diving deep into the muck to explain it all on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. A second recount upheld Democrat Allison Riggs' victory in the ultra-close race for the state Supreme Court, and officials threw out challenges from her Republican opponent seeking to invalidate some 60,000 ballots.
But the GOP also overrode Gov. Roy Cooper's veto to pass an obscene power grab that's as breathtaking as it is blatant. Just one example: They're moving the board of elections from the governor to the state auditor. Why? Simply because Democrats won the former office last month while Republicans won the latter. The rest of the bill is even more atrocious. Co-hosts David Beard and David Nir will tell you all about it.
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The last unresolved House race of 2024 is finally in the books, giving Democrats a victory that will narrow the GOP's already precarious margin even further. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the ramifications of Republicans' tiny majority, which will either result in gridlock or further dependence on Democratic votes. The Davids also discuss Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan's decision to abandon the Democratic Party and run for governor as an independent—though it might not prove to be a catastrophe for Democrats.Joining us for our deep dive this week is Jessica Mackler, president of EMILYs List, a political mainstay that's been devoted to electing pro-choice Democratic women for nearly 40 years. Mackler highlights endorsees who overperformed to win tough races, like Michigan's Elissa Slotkin, while noting that vocal support for abortion rights is only one part of a winning campaign. She also looks toward upcoming races EMILYs is focused on and shares some thoughts on top-shelf candidates who could run again after falling just short in 2024.
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In a stunning turn of events almost two weeks after Election Day, Democrat Allison Riggs surged to a narrow lead in her bid for a full term on the North Carolina Supreme Court after trailing by as many as 10,000 votes. David Nir and David Beard discuss this dramatic turnaround on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—but caution that legal challenges before a far-right judiciary await.
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The Davids also talk to one of their favorite congressional reporters, Abby Livingston of Puck News, who shares her views on the gap between Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP ticket in this year's elections. Was it a special "Trump sauce" or candidate quality that saw them diverge? The answer might be both! Livingston also pulls back the curtain on the anonymous Democratic "bedwetters" who constantly fret to reporters, explaining that most are at least one step removed from any actual campaigns.
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While the House was just called for Republicans, the GOP's majority will be incredibly slender—and it's about to get worse. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into two uncalled races that could flip to Democrats, further narrowing the GOP's advantage. But worse still is Donald Trump, who's been raiding the House for his cabinet, prompting Mike Johnson to beg him to stop. So what did Trump do? Why, he nominated Matt Gaetz for attorney general, of course.
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It may seem hard to believe after Tuesday night, but Democrats still have a shot at winning a majority in the House. With many races uncalled and many votes still to be counted, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard analyze the Democrats’ path to 218 seats on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. Hang on tight, though, since it could be a while before final results are known.
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America’s democratic institutions have been put to the test in recent years, but are they robust enough to withstand what’s coming next?
On Thursday, I joined with Aaron Rupar of Public Notice for a live discussion as part of Substack’s Election Dialogues series to examine the threats our democracy faces in the 2024 elections and beyond. We hit a wide variety of topics, including voter suppression, election subversion, and Donald Trump’s dark plans for a second term.
We also took questions from our viewers throughout the event, which was a huge success—a thousand people participated! If you weren’t able to catch us live, though, you can listen to the complete recording.
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At long last, the election is almost here, and there are thousands of races to follow. That's why we're lucky to have the supremely knowledgeable Jeff Singer, our managing editor, join us on the last pre-election edition of The Downballot podcast to give us an hour-by-hour overview of the key contests to watch. Jeff highlights the top Senate battles and critical House races that will likely determine control of both chambers, starting when the first polls close in Indiana all the way until voting wraps in Alaska.
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Few people can cut through the noise like Josh Marshall, founder of the seminal Talking Points Memo and O-est of the O.G. political analysts. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, Josh explains how he concluded that Donald Trump's unorthodox get-out-the-vote operation is probably a mess—and why it could harm Republicans further down the ticket. He also tells us about some of the House races on the bubble that he's keeping an eye on, which seem to point to a solid Democrat year despite the polls.
That's a topic co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also delve into at the top of the show, when they discuss the "triage" now underway in the battle for the House. Big-money groups are starting to reposition their resources for the final two weeks, and so far, almost all of the moves have favored Democrats. Special elections have also brought good news for Democrats, as Nir detailed in a new article this week, so which pieces of evidence should you believe? As the Davids explain, it might just be all of the above.
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New fundraising reports show Democrats absolutely obliterating Republicans up and down the ballot, while a leaked super PAC memo indicates some serious GOP anxiety about Senate race polling. That all looks like good news for Democrats, but polls still show an exceedingly close contest at the top of the ticket, so which pile of evidence is pointing the right way? It's the central question we're discussing on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—and the answer could very well be "both."
Our guest this week is Robert Reynolds Gambhir of Vote Rev, an organization that harnesses behavioral science to boost civic engagement. Robert tells us about Vote Rev's methods for enhancing traditionally impersonal get-out-the-vote efforts by asking voters to reach out to their friends. They dub the tactic "vote tripling," and campaigns are currently deploying it in the runup to the November elections.
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Here's a big election on Nov. 5 you won't want to sleep on: Puerto Rico, a territory home to 3.2 million U.S. citizens, is holding a plebiscite on the question of statehood. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explain the vote—and the 126 years of colonial history leading up to it—is George Laws Garcia, executive director of the Puerto Rico Statehood Council. Laws Garcia details the huge disadvantages Puerto Ricans face due to the island's current status and says they point to a victory for statehood. And should it become a state, he intriguingly tells us why he thinks Puerto Rico would defy conventional wisdom and wind up a swing state.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the House battlefield, which remains very small but, inch by inch, is growing—most notably in South Texas, where Democrats are making a play for a heavily Latino, GOP-trending district that they left by the wayside last cycle. Then the Davids dissect a strange poll from a strange candidate in a swingy House race before checking back in on Indiana, where both Democrats and Republicans are suddenly treating the open governor's race like it's genuinely competitive.
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Asian Americans are an often untapped constituency that could make or break close many elections up and down the ballot. This week on The Downballot podcast, we're speaking with Shekar Narasimhan, the founder of the AAPI Victory Fund, who explains how his organization motivates voters and helps elect progressive Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native Hawaiian candidates to office. Education and immigration are top issues throughout the diverse AAPI community, where a robocall in a native language—the Victory Fund can translate into more than a dozen—can go a long way.
Meanwhile, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a most unexpected contest: the race for Indiana's open governorship, which shot onto the radar this week thanks to a disastrous GOP campaign ad and some shockingly close polling. The Davids also check in on the Senate races in Texas and Florida, another pair of red states where Democrats are making a late move to expand the battlefield in the hopes of retaining their slim majority.
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Just how big will Mark Robinson's blast radius grow? We're surveying the damage on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, and it's looking pretty gnarly for the North Carolina GOP. Most Republicans have found increasingly creative ways of distancing themselves from their fatally flawed gubernatorial nominee, but the sheer number of tossup races on the ballot means that any downturn in enthusiasm could have profound effects in the Tar Heel State.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also nerd out with Kirk Bado, editor of the National Journal Hotline, about this year's elections. Bado gives us a sneak preview of his new power rankings for Congress, which rank the top seats in both chambers in order of their likelihood of flipping. He also discusses a major new investigation into the dearth of House polling and highlights a few on-the-bubble races he's keeping an eye on.
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There are few topics nearer and dearer to us than state legislative races, which is why we welcomed Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Williams tells us all about Democrats' top targets this year, including protecting skinny majorities in Michigan and Pennsylvania and flipping GOP-controlled chambers in Arizona and New Hampshire. She also emphasizes how the DLCC plays the long game, since it often takes more than one cycle to come out on top.
Meanwhile, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard spotlight The Downballot's new special report on the size of the immigrant population in Springfield, Ohio. For all the attention the city has gotten, no major publication had done a deep dive to understand just how many Haitians now live there, so contributor David Jarman stepped into the breach. The hosts also discuss a pair of court rulings about misleading summaries of ballot measures written by Republicans—one rejecting an attempt to gaslight voters, and the other allowing it.
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The long primary season that began—if you can believe it—more than six months ago has at last come to an end, finally setting the stage for November's general election. First, though, we have a few races to recap on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, including the Democrats' primary for New Hampshire's open governorship, their most enticing flip opportunity in the nation. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also excoriate Ron DeSantis for using Florida's state government to fight an abortion rights amendment, a maneuver direct from the authoritarian's playbook.
Our guest on the show this week is Lauren Gepford, whose group, Contest Every Race, recruits Democratic candidates nationwide to run in races far down the ballot that often go uncontested. Gepford explains how her organization figures out which of the nation's half-million elected positions to target (it's a huge task!) and tells us about its remarkably effective recruitment tool: texting folks to ask them if they might want to run. Even in the reddest areas, it's all about giving voters a choice when they might otherwise have none.
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It wasn't long ago that campaigns would target voters by obtaining printed precinct maps, then literally cut them into pieces so they'd know where to send door-knockers. This week on The Downballot podcast, veteran operative John Hagner explains how he helped voter targeting emerge from the dark ages to become the sophisticated tool it is today. Hagner, the director of business development at the polling firm Civiqs, also shares some surprising insights about how to survey "low-trust" Donald Trump supporters who don't like to answer polls. One simple technique: shorter polls!
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard kick us off by previewing the year's final Democratic primaries in Delaware and New Hampshire, several of which have turned into unexpectedly nasty affairs. But it's looking like Republicans are facing serious headwinds in the Granite State with reports that Trump is pulling out, giving Democrats a strong shot at flipping the governorship. The Davids also zoom in on a House race that's suddenly looking competitive in, of all places, Florida.
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One of the best things to emerge from Election Twitter is Split Ticket, a site—like ours—devoted to rigorous election analysis. We're delighted to welcome founder Laskhya Jain on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to tell us about how Split Ticket came to be and how he learned to trust the data over his vibes. He also gives us a sneak preview of the next update to his Senate model and spotlights several House races he thinks could be bellwethers in November. We knew we'd found a kindred spirit because we could have gone on for hours, but we're sure we'll have Lakshya on again!
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the shock Democratic flip in the race for Tulsa mayor, where Republicans got locked out of the general election in Tuesday's primary. Is Nir now a convert to the wisdom of top-two primaries? They then drag Utah Republicans for their naked attempt to eviscerate citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives just so they can keep gerrymandering before returning to Alaska to catch up on the surprising exit of a top GOP recruit in the state's House race.
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If you're looking for signs of good news for House Democrats, look no further than … Alaska? Believe it or not, yeah! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard lead off with the remarkable Mary Peltola, who continues to defy political gravity. Despite sitting in the reddest House seat for a Democrat, she's pulling in a majority of the vote in Tuesday's top-four primary—a result that can't have Republicans feeling great about unseating her in November.
And we're getting super nerdy in our deep dive this week. Our guest is Doug Kronaizl from Ballotpedia, a site you know well because it's one of the most indispensable resources for elections research on the internet. Kronaizl tells us how his organization tracks tens of thousands of races every year and why in recent years it's expanded even further down the ballot. He also discusses the sorry fact that so many local elections go uncontested—including more than half for school board—but explains how Ballotpedia can help remedy the problem.
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It's our biggest news in the 21 years since we began covering elections: Daily Kos Elections is striking out on its own to launch a new, independent site with a name that will be very familiar to our listeners. We're calling it The Downballot, but have no fear—we'll still be bringing you this podcast weekly! In fact, our mission isn't changing at all. To learn all about our new venture, including why we're making this change and what to expect, dive right into this week's episode.
Most importantly, we're asking folks to support our work shedding light on critical but often overlooked downballot elections by becoming paid subscribers. You can do so right here: https://www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
Of course, the world of election news hasn't slowed down one bit! Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap a pair of major losses for the GOP at the ballot box in Wisconsin, where Republicans tried to kneecap the state's Democratic governor via constitutional amendment. They also zoom in on Nebraska's swingy 2nd District, where a Democratic hopeful will soon get a boost from the very top of the ticket. And finally, they provide an update on the abortion rights amendment in Arizona, where the arch-conservative state Supreme Court could strike it from the ballot.
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Tim Walz may be on the national ticket, but he's the ultimate downballot guy, so we've got to talk all about him on this week's episode of "The Downballot." We recount Walz's extensive electoral career, starting with his upset win for Congress as a "Fighting Dem" during the 2006 wave that began a streak of impressive overperformances continuing through his two bids for governor. We also explain exactly how Walz would be replaced if he's elected VP—and how his replacement would be replaced, and how that person would be replaced. Nothing is too weedy for us!Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's meaty primary night, which set the table for a host of competitive November elections and set some other candidates on a glide path to victory. The Davids discuss why the top of the ticket will likely determine the fate of Michigan's open Senate race; why candidate quality—and not outside money—was the most important factor in Rep. Cori Bush's defeat; and why Washington's top-two primary system should be banished from the face of the earth.
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