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MORE UNINTENTIONALLY FUNNY AI SLOP SHOWNOTES. Peter Hoistead? Thanks Gemini.
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The Conditional Release Program - Episode 185: Federal Election 2025 Post-Special
Hosts: Joel Hill & Jack the Insider (Peter Hoistead)
Overall Theme: A deep dive into the results and implications of the 2025 Australian Federal Election, focusing on Labor's historic victory, the Coalition's catastrophic loss, and the performance of minor parties and independents.
Key Segments & Talking Points:
(Part 1 - Approximate Timestamps based on original transcript, subject to adjustment)
[00:00:00 - 00:01:23] Introduction & Election OverviewJoel laments being banned from betting on the election, particularly Labor's strong odds.Jack notes Joel would have won significantly, especially on Labor at $2.60.Historic Labor Win: Anthony "Albo" Albanese leads Labor to a significant victory.Libs sent into an "existential crisis."Albo is the first PM to be re-elected since John Howard in 2004.Largest Labor victory on a two-party preferred basis since John Curtin in 1943 (votes still being counted).Crucial Stat: The Albanese government is the only first-term government to have a swing towards it in Australian political history.[00:01:23 - 00:03:38] Significance of the Swing to LaborPrevious first-term governments (Howard '98, Hawke '84, Fraser '77, Whitlam '74, Menzies) all had swings against them when seeking a second term.Albo's government achieved an approximate 4% swing towards it (votes still being counted).Discussion points: Where it went right for Labor, and wrong for the Coalition, Greens, and Teals.Far-right "Cookers" performed terribly. Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FONY) might see minor representation.[00:03:38 - 00:05:11] Patreon & Sponsor Shout-outsReminder to support the podcast on Patreon: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram (for as little as $5/month).CB Co. Beer: Praised for their IPA and new Hazy XPA. Competition to win $100,000. Use code CRP10 for 10% off at cbco.beer.[00:05:11 - 00:08:52] Polling Inaccuracies & Liberal OptimismReiteration of the ~4% swing to Labor.Comparison of final poll predictions vs. actual results:Freshwater: Labor 51.5% (was Liberal pollster, told Libs they were close).Newspoll: 52.5% (Labor used their private polling).Essential: 53.5%.YouGov: 52.2% - 52.9%.Polling companies significantly underestimated Labor's vote, especially those advising the Coalition.The misplaced optimism at Liberal Party HQ on election night.[00:08:52 - 00:16:00] Specific Seat Results & Labor GainsGilmore (NSW South Coast): Fiona Phillips (Labor) won 55-45 (3-4% swing to her), despite Andrew Constance (Liberal) being the favourite.Bennelong (Howard's old seat): Jeremy Laxail (Labor) won 59-41 against Scott Young (problematic Liberal candidate), a 10% swing to Labor.Parramatta: Andrew Charlton (Labor) won 62-38 (was 53.47 in 2022).Aston (Victoria): Labor won in a historic by-election previously, now a 4% swing to the Labor candidate, winning 53-47.Boothby (SA): Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) achieved an 8% swing, holding the seat 61-39.Tangney (WA): Sam Lim (Labor, ex-cop & dolphin trainer) secured a 3% swing, now 56-44. Large Bhutanese diaspora noted.Leichhardt (FNQ): Labor's Matt Smith won 57-43 after Warren Entsch (LNP) retired (10% swing).Hunter (NSW): Dan Repiccioli (Labor) re-elected with 44% primary vote (5% swing on primary). Fended off Nats and One Nation (Stuart Bonds' inflated vote claims by "One Australia" on X).[00:16:00 - 00:18:49] Diversifying Parliament & Women in PoliticsPraise for non-lawyer backgrounds in Parliament (e.g., Dan Repiccioli, Sam Lim).Critique of the typical lawyer/staffer/union pathway.Labor's success in diversifying candidate backgrounds and increasing female representation.Liberals struggling with female representation despite some efforts. Discussion of potential quotas in the Liberal party and the backlash it would cause.Margaret Thatcher quote: "If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman."[00:18:49 - 00:27:26] The Teals: Mixed Results & ChallengesInitial appearance of a Teal "romp" on election night.Bradfield (NSW North Shore): Teal Nicolette Boele (Burle/Bola) behind Liberal Giselle Kaptarian by 178 votes (updated during recording).Goldstein (VIC): Tim Wilson (Liberal) leading Zoe Daniel (Teal) by 925 votes. Wilson is likely back. Joel comments on Wilson's IPA association vs. his "gay, wet, mediocre, progressive side." Jack notes Wilson often highlights his sexuality.Jim Chalmers' quip about Tim Wilson: "Popular for all those who haven't met him."Kooyong (VIC): Monique Ryan (Teal) leading by 1002 votes (97,000 counted, ~8,000 postals to go). Redistribution added parts of Toorak, making it harder for Ryan.Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer: "Trust fund renter" controversy, owns multiple properties, London bolthole.Corflute wars in Kooyong: Hamer campaign's excessive use of A-frames, obstructing walkways, went to Supreme Court over council limits. Jack doubts the impact of corflutes.[00:27:26 - 00:31:28] Why Did the Teals Go Backwards?Liberal party invested heavily in Kooyong and Goldstein.Voters potentially preferring a local member who is a Minister or part of the government.Redistribution impact in Kooyong (addition of Toorak).Zali Steggall's success in Warringah partly due to "fruitcake" Liberal opponents like Katherine Deves.[00:31:28 - 00:40:37] The Greens: Significant LossesLost all lower house seats. Adam Bandt (leader) gone from Melbourne.Lost Brisbane (Max Chandler Mather) and Griffith back to Labor.Ryan (South Brisbane): Likely Labor win in a three-way contest.Greens will have no lower house representation.Key Reason: Housing policy standoff. Accused of holding up Labor's housing bill for over a year (affecting funding for domestic violence victims, homeless), pursuing "perfection" over compromise.[00:40:37 - 00:49:57] Deep Dive: Housing Policy ChallengesA major challenge for the Albanese government. Not an easy fix.Supply-side changes could devalue existing homes or slow growth, angering homeowners.Joel’s view: Subsidized housing (rent-to-own, means-tested) wouldn't touch the high-end market.Negative gearing: Not a quick fix; removing it overnight unlikely to change much; issue is supply.Homeowner expectations of property value growth.Construction industry at full tilt; skills shortages.CFMEU's role in skilled migration for construction.Free TAFE importance for reskilling/upskilling.Linton Besser (Media Watch) criticism of Labor "building" houses when they reconditioned unlivable ones – Joel argues this still increases supply.[00:49:57 - 00:59:16] Deep Dive: Childcare Policy & Global Economic HeadwindsChildcare another area for government focus.Labor's childcare policy: Rebates for high earners (e.g., $325k combined income).High cost of childcare; need for better pay for childcare workers (Labor delivered a pay spike).Ownership of childcare centers (Peter Dutton reference) and profit-making. Call for more public childcare.Uncertain global economic times, Trump tariffs.Port of Los Angeles imports down by one-third.US Q1 economy shrank 0.3%; recession likely.Japan, China, South Korea meeting to discuss tariff responses; hold significant US debt. Japanese warning to US re: trade negotiations.[00:59:16 - 01:07:13] What Went Wrong for the Coalition? Answer: Everything.Gas Price Fixing Policy: Cobbled together, no consultation with industry (unlike Rudd's mining tax failure), potentially unconstitutional (taxing for benefit of some states over others).Work From Home Policy Disaster:Conceived by Jane Hume and Peter Dutton, no Shadow Cabinet consultation.Initial messaging: All Commonwealth public servants, then just Canberra.Jane Hume's media run: Claimed all WFH is 20% less productive, citing a study.Implied WFH employees are "bludgers," alienating a vast number of voters (including partners of tradies).Labor capitalized on this after door-knocking feedback. Policy eventually walked back.Defence Policy: Released in the last week, vague promise to spend 3% of GDP, no specifics on acquisitions. Andrew Hastie (Shadow Defence) reportedly wants out of the portfolio.Fuel Excise Policy: Halving fuel excise for a year. Took a week for Dutton to do a photo-op at a service station. Fuel prices had already dropped.Melbourne Airport Rail Link Funding: Announced at a winery.Vehicle Emissions Policy: Clarifications issued within 48 hours.Generally a shambolic campaign, studied for years to come.[01:07:13 - 01:08:55] The Nationals & Nuclear Policy FalloutNats trying to spin a better result than Libs, but didn't win Calare (Andrew Gee back as Indy).Nuclear Policy: Coalition embarrassed to discuss it. Nats insist on keeping it.Policy originated as a way for Libs to get Nats to support Net Zero by 2050.Massive costs and timelines: Hinkley Point C (UK) example – 65 billion pounds, years of delays. US Georgia plant similar.Legislative hurdles: Repealing Howard-era ban, state-level bans (even LNP QLD Premier Chris O'Fooley against it).State-funded, "socialist" approach due to lack of private investment.[01:08:55 - 01:15:49] Coalition Campaign Failures & SpokespeopleDebate on government vs. private industry running power.Lack of effective Coalition spokespeople: Susan Ley sidelined, Jane Hume promoted. Angus Taylor perceived as lazy.Angus Taylor's past water license scandal ("Australia's Watergate," Cayman Islands structure).[01:15:49 - 01:28:03] Demographics: A Tide Against the LiberalsWomen: Voted ~58-42 for Labor (two-party preferred), worse than under Morrison. Libs failed to address issues like climate, domestic violence.Language Other Than English at Home (LOTE): 60% backed Labor (Redbridge polling, Cos Samaras). Indian and Chinese diaspora significant, impacting Deakin and Menzies (Keith Wallahan, a moderate, lost Menzies).Gen Z & Millennials (18-45): Now outnumber Baby Boomers (60+), voted 60-40 Labor (TPP).Preferencing: Labor "gamed the system well"; Liberals' deal with One Nation backfired in messaging to urban areas.Strategy Failure: Liberals walked away from "heartland" Teal-lost seats, wrongly believing voters were wrong. Dutton's 2023 claim of Libs being "party of regional Australia" failed. No connection or network in targeted outer-suburban/regional seats.Female Pre-selection: Aspiration of 50% in 2019, achieved 34% in 2025. "Male, white, middle-class, mediocre."Sarah Henderson Example: Lost Corangamite in 2019, returned via Senate vacancy. Criticized as a "waste of space," arrogant for seeking re-entry.Both parties have taken safe seats for granted (factional gifts), but Labor learning. Example: Batman (now Cooper, Jed Carney) won back from Greens after better candidate selection.[01:28:03 - 01:36:42] Fond Farewells: Election CasualtiesPeter Dutton: Lost his seat of Dickson (held 20+ years), got "smashed." Likely preferred losing seat to facing party room fallout. Gracious concession speech. Australia's strong electoral process praised (democracy sausage, volunteers, AEC, peaceful concession).Michael Sukkar (Deakin, VIC): "Unpleasant piece of work."Recount of February incident: Sukkar, at Dutton's prompting, used a point of order to cut off Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus (Jewish) during an emotional speech about anti-Semitism and his family's Holocaust connection (Shiloh story). Dreyfus called Sukkar "disgusting." Sukkar moved "that the member no longer be heard." Widely condemned.Gerard Rennick (QLD Senator): Anti-COVID vaccine, spread misinformation (diabetes, dementia links). Jack recounts being attacked by Rennick's "poison monkeys" on X after writing about it. Rennick gone, likely self-funded much of his campaign.(Part 2 - Timestamps restart from 00:00:00 but are a continuation, add ~1 hour 36 mins 50 secs to these for continuous flow)
[01:36:50 - 01:44:07] The Fractured Hard Right ("Cookers") - Dismal PerformanceGenerally went nowhere electorally.UAP (United Australia Party) / Trumpeter Patriots (John Ruddock): 2.38% in NSW Senate (down from UAP's 3.2% in 2022). Less money spent than previous Clive Palmer campaigns.Libertarian Democrats (Lib Dems): 1.99% in NSW Senate. Controversial name didn't help. Alliance with H.A.R.T (formerly IMOP, Michael O'Neill) and Gerard Rennick's People First Party.Monica Smit's calls to "unite" contrasted with these groups already forming alliances without her.These three parties combined got less than 2% in NSW. Lib Dems <1.5% nationally outside NSW.Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FON): 5.8% in NSW Senate (up 2 points from 2022). "Teeny Weeny" might get up in QLD, maybe one in WA, but not enough in NSW.Family First: 1.67%.Cannibalizing each other's fractional votes; no real electoral success. "Cooked bullshit" validated briefly during pandemic but no longer.[01:44:07 - 01:55:30] Cooker Delusions & Financial RealitiesRodney Culleton (Great Australia Party, WA): 0.97% (down from 1.05% in 2022, <1000 votes).Facebook comment: "Billy Bay" claiming Rennick's race is "close but unlikely" – met with derision (Rennick at ~10% of a quota).Cooker commenter "Brad": "It was never about forming government... Isn't it about getting candidates into the Senate to hold balance of power?" – Delusional.Funding Threshold: 4% of the vote in House or Senate to get election funding (deposit back). Most minor "freedom" parties will not reach this. Expensive failure for Ruddock, Culleton etc. (Clive Palmer won't care).Rodney Culleton on crutches, asking for help collecting corflutes. Still an undischarged bankrupt (potential issue with candidate registration stat dec).[01:55:30 - 02:09:00] More Cooker Antics & Failed CandidatesCraig "Crackers" Kelly: Number 1 on Libertarian Senate ticket in NSW. Likely his political end.Cooker dreams of Senate balance of power via double dissolution are unfounded – even with a halved quota, they are nowhere near.Joel’s anecdote: Acquaintance supporting Gerard Rennick, suggesting some surface-level cut-through for People First Party, but election results prove otherwise. John Ruddock's efforts to make Lib Dems the "party of cookers" with Kelly as lead failed spectacularly.Dai Le (Fowler, NSW): Re-elected. Breaks Joel's heart ("total asshole"). Ben Fordham headline: Le claims Labor tried to buy votes. Her initial election attributed to Labor parachuting Kristina Keneally. Le now seen as a premier "cooker voice" as Rennick, Malcolm Roberts, and Alex Antic have limited national reach (Antic more on Telegram).Antic's influence has hurt SA Liberals (only 2 rural seats, nothing in Adelaide).Avi Yemini/Rukshan Fernando/Joel Jammal "freedom" telecast: Alex Antic was a guest, claiming good chances for some (unnamed) "cooker" candidates.[02:09:00 - 02:21:45] Mark "Mack" McFarlane & Cooker Live StreamMark McFarlane (Mark Mack): The elder abuser (court finding: withheld medication, financial exploitation). Ran as an independent in Indi.Exposed by Tinfoil Tales, story picked up by mainstream media. Liberals changed preferences away from him.Freedom movement largely hasn't disowned him (Beck Freedom an outlier). McFarlane claims to be a "targeted individual."Received 1,268 votes (~1-2%), lost deposit.Cooker Live Stream (Avi Yemini, Rukshan Fernando, Joel Jammal):Monica Smit: Appeared, advocated for "freedom" people to join major parties (Liberals) to make change. Joel questions her understanding of politics and impact on Liberal party IQ/values.Drew Pavlou: Guest, "destroyed" by Avi Yemini in an edited clip ("leftist justifies Labor vote"). Drew actually voted Labor first, Greens last. Content designed for cooker base.Topher Field: Appeared.Morgan C. Jonas: Spent money on materials for Hunter (Dan Repiccioli's seat).AI-generated posters: "Burgers, Bowen and Blunders: The Dan Burglar - Put Labor Last." (Features Dan, Chris Bowen, and an Albo/Noam Chomsky hybrid)."Double Trouble" (Albo & Sid Allen): "More Debt, More Crime" – became a joke.On the live stream, 2 hours in, Jonas claimed Dutton would get a surprise victory/form minority government. (Jack notes he called it for Labor by 7:30 pm).Jonas claimed cooker vote around 16% in Victorian Senate (actual, including FON, is ~9.6%; without FON/Family First, much lower).[02:21:45 - 02:31:36] Russell Broadbent & Final Cooker ThoughtsRussell Broadbent (Monash, VIC): Incumbent Liberal who lost pre-selection (to Mary Aldred, who got a 2.2% swing to her), ran as an independent.Broadbent got 10% as an Indy. Convinced he lost pre-selection for being a "cooker.""Fucked his career" by spending too much time on the internet (like Craig Kelly). Could have remained Member for Hughes.Broadbent: Father of the House, 25 years, never front bench. Time for fresh blood.Albo gave him a "free ad" during campaign, pitying his treatment.Appeared on Topher Field/Children's Health Defence Australia "election insights."Recent Broadbent Facebook post thanking pharmacists met with overwhelmingly negative comments from his new cooker base.Will have a good retirement on parliamentary super.[02:31:36 - END] Outro & ContactSubscribe, five-star review.Twitter: @JacktheInsider, @CrunchyMoses (with a K).Email: [email protected] about joining the Liberal Party for renewal, Jack offers to cross-dress. -
More AI notes for y'all. They're not bad!
Episode Link: Find this and other episodes at The Conditional Release Program on RedCircle.
Recorded: May 5, 2025 (two days after the Australian Federal Election)
Hosts: Jack the Insider & Hong Kong Jack
In this episode, The Two Jacks dissect the stunning Australian federal election results, explore a surprising political turnaround in Canada, ponder the next Pope, and touch on global political shifts from the UK to Germany, and the latest from Trump's America.
(00:00:00) Introduction & Australian Election: An Orderly Affair Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick off by praising the smooth and festive nature of the Australian federal election, highlighting the efficiency of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) and the beloved "democracy sausage."
(00:02:21) The Pre-Poll Phenomenon A discussion on the increasing trend of pre-polling, with over half of Australians casting their vote before election day. The hosts debate the merits of shortening the pre-polling period, with Hong Kong Jack lamenting the decline of traditional Saturday voting.
(00:06:06) Betting Blunders & Historic Results Labor's remarkable journey from $15 outsiders to $1.07 unbackable favourites to form government is reviewed. The episode highlights key historical markers:
Anthony Albanese: The first Prime Minister re-elected since 2004.A significant Labor victory, with Albanese leading the first government in Australian political history to increase its majority in a second term.(00:09:17) Seat Swings, Mea Culpas & The Greens' Tumble The hosts reflect on their pre-election predictions against the reality of significant swings to Labor (e.g., a 10% swing in Bennelong). Labor is projected to win around 90 seats.
The Greens: A tough election, with leader Adam Bandt likely to lose his seat in Melbourne. Zoe Daniel (Teal) is also in a precarious position in Goldstein. The Greens may lose Ryan back to the Liberals and potentially face no representation in the House of Representatives.(00:13:38) A UK Perspective & Labor's Resurgence Hong Kong Jack shares insights from the UK, where observers noted Labor's landslide and the "leaderless, rudderless, pointless" state of the Coalition. This challenges the narrative that incumbents always lose, citing recent Canadian and Australian results.
(00:16:27) Liberal Campaign Catastrophe: A "Don't Do This" Case Study A deep dive into the Liberal Party's "dreadful campaign," marked by:
The ill-conceived work-from-home policy, poorly communicated by Senator Jane Hume and lacking consultation.A string of policy backflips and poorly planned announcements (e.g., fuel excise cut, Melbourne airport rail funding announced at a winery).Peter Dutton has accepted responsibility for the campaign's failures.(00:22:46) Trump's Take & The Muted MAGA Effect Donald Trump's reaction to the Australian election (congratulating "Albert" while feigning ignorance of Dutton) is discussed. The hosts agree that MAGA influence was minimal, with Albanese's message of "kindness is not weakness" resonating more strongly.
(00:25:13) The Liberal Party's Existential Crossroads A critical analysis of the Liberal Party's future, having lost traditional heartland seats and failed to broaden its appeal beyond an aging demographic.
The danger of vacating the political centre and the flawed strategy of chasing a new "working-class" constituency.Hong Kong Jack draws parallels to Labor's wilderness years (1977, 1996), emphasizing the need for honest self-reflection for any chance of recovery.Labor's structural advantages: benefiting from Green preferences and a more unified progressive base compared to a fragmented right-wing, further diluted by entities like Clive Palmer's party.(00:39:58) Senate Snapshot: Stability Prevails An overview of the projected Senate makeup across the states:
NSW & VIC: Likely Labor 3, Liberals 2, Greens 1.QLD: Labor 2, Libs 2, Greens 1, with One Nation's Malcolm Roberts likely re-elected.TAS: Jacqui Lambie expected to return.ACT: Independent David Pocock secures his quota alongside a Labor senator.Overall, the Senate composition is unlikely to see dramatic changes. David Pocock is commended for his diligent work.(00:42:25) Who Will Lead the Liberals? A Party in Search of Direction Speculation on the future leadership of the Liberal Party, with few obvious candidates emerging from a depleted frontbench. Dan Tehan is mentioned as a possible moderate caretaker, though the path back to government looks long and arduous.
(00:45:58) Albanese: The New "Labor God" & Chalmers' Contribution Anthony Albanese is lauded for his historic achievement, with Jim Chalmers highlighted as a key performer and media operator for Labor, despite Hong Kong Jack's gentle ribbing about his lengthy essays.
(00:48:56) Canadian Politics Upended: Liberals' Shock Comeback A look at the Canadian election, where the Liberals achieved a stunning turnaround, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre facing a potential seat loss. Donald Trump's inflammatory rhetoric towards Canada is seen as a contributing factor to this shift.
(00:52:12) Vatican Watch: Speculating on the Next Pope With Pope Francis's papacy in its later stages, the hosts discuss potential successors. Italian cardinals like Pietro Parolin are frontrunners, but names from Africa and the Philippines also surface. Hong Kong Jack references Morris West's The Shoes of the Fisherman for insights into papal conclaves.
(00:55:52) Sir Tony Blair on Net Zero & The Reality of Fossil Fuels Former UK PM Sir Tony Blair's call for a rethink of Net Zero policies due to cost implications is examined. Global fossil fuel consumption continues to rise (gas +2.7%, coal +1%, oil +0.8%), underscoring the challenge of the energy transition.
(01:00:24) Trump's First 100 Days (Again): Low Approval, Tariff Troubles & Papal Attire Donald Trump's second term hits the 100-day mark with historically low approval ratings (39%). The economic impact of his tariffs is starting to bite (LA port imports down one-third, US economy shrinking). Adding to the unusual, Trump has been pictured in papal robes on the White House website, even expressing a desire to be Pope.
(01:05:49) UK Political Fragmentation: Reform's Rise, Tories' Fall The UK's political landscape remains volatile. Recent local and by-election results project a national vote share that would see the Reform party at 30% and the Conservatives decimated to around 15% and potentially only five seats.
(01:08:44) Germany Considers Banning Far-Right AFD Germany is contemplating a ban on the far-right AFD party, the largest single party in the Bundestag. The hosts discuss the problematic nature of banning popular political movements, arguing it often backfires.
(01:11:21) Jay Rayner on Media: Mainstream vs. Social Food critic Jay Rayner's comments on the state of media are discussed, questioning the perceived universal informedness of mainstream journalists and acknowledging that both traditional and social media produce "rubbish."
(01:15:29) AFL Round-Up: Carlton's Collapse, Collingwood-Geelong Classic
Carlton suffers a 10-goal drubbing by Adelaide, with Jack Silvani's absence keenly felt.Collingwood vs. Geelong is hailed as a "cracker" game, showcasing great skill and sportsmanship.Concerns are raised about key AFL games not being available on free-to-air television, potentially alienating younger fans.(01:22:18) Cricket News: Indian Prodigy & Vale "The Buzz" A 17-year-old Indian cricketer makes waves in the IPL with a century. The hosts pay tribute to Carlton AFL legend Peter Bosustow ("The Buzz"), who passed away after a battle with cancer, remembering his electrifying impact on the game.
(01:27:27) NRL Update & Women's State of Origin Shines The Bulldogs continue their strong NRL run, while the Panthers finally notch a win. The NRL is praised for its successful promotion of the women's game, with the Women's State of Origin proving highly watchable.
(01:29:51) An Ode to Whale Waste: Ecological Importance Hong Kong Jack shares a fascinating environmental tidbit on the crucial role of whale excrement and urine in ocean ecosystems, highlighting a baleen whale's impressive daily urine output of 950 litres.
(01:32:10) Wrapping Up: A Transformative Election & How to Connect Jack the Insider concludes that Australia has witnessed a significant political transformation, with Anthony Albanese poised to be a long-term, impactful leader.
Connect with the hosts:Jack the Insider: On X (formerly Twitter) @JackTheInsider (DMs open)Hong Kong Jack: On Twitter and his Substack. -
Listeners! It' election day and I cannot be bothered so it's AI shownotes this week. Enjoy!
Hosts: Joel Hill & Dave (Cooker Watcher Supreme)
(00:00:00) Introduction & Welcome
Joel welcomes listeners and introduces guest host Dave, replacing Jack the Insider.
Shoutout: CB Co Beer for election night viewing. Mention of a competition involving a boat trip.
Election Calls to Action:
Vote 1 Fiona Patton in the Victorian Senate, preference 2 Purple Pingers.
(00:01:48) Tinfoil Tales Follow-Up: The Next Pope?
Discussion on cooker theories about the next Pope (King Charles?).
Lindsey Graham's tweet suggesting Donald Trump for Pope.
00:02:38 Dave reads the tweet.
Trump's blue suit vs. Obama's tan suit controversy revisited.
Brief thoughts on the late Pope's legacy and potential successor.
(00:04:37) Dave's Cooker Report: Cessnock & CPAC
Dave attended a meeting with Joel Jammal ("Eyebrows") in Cessnock (his 8th visit).
Jammal debriefed the local unnamed "Freedom Group" (often linked to One Nation) on his CPAC trip.
Local Candidates Present:
Stuart Bonds (One Nation candidate for Hunter).
Jennifer Stefanak (Trumpet of Patriots Newcastle) - Flat Earther, aliens are fallen angels, won NCAT case after dismissal from child services. Not allowed to speak despite attending.
Mysterious Host: Christine Stevens, credited by Jammal as "brains behind the Wollongbae Road campaign" (a local road widening project used by cookers).
Stevens now campaign manager for Stuart Bonds (referred to as "boss"). Possible links to broader far-right organising.
Joel Jammal's Gifts: Rolled-up maps for Cessnock's 6 cooker councillors showing ALP vs. Voice 'No' vote intersections. Maps available for purchase from Jammal.
Jammal's CPAC Trip: Won the trip via the "Shark Bites Pitching Contest" at CPAC Australia (Sky paywall).
Winners expected to produce content upon return.
Included a communication seminar with Steve Bannon.
Stuart Bonds' Candidacy (Hunter):
Odds discussed ($10 on Sportsbet).
Labor's Dan Repacholi favoured ($1.15).
Bonds' history: 21% primary in 2019, left One Nation, rejoined. Consistent far-right vote in the region.
Bonds' desire to "start a conversation about coal mining" (already ongoing).
Discussion on Labor's telehealth plan and cooker opposition.
(00:24:07) Trumpism & Dutton's Campaign
Discussion on the "blueprint for Trump 28".
Chris LaCivita (Trump advisor) reportedly helped Peter Dutton's campaign. Joel questions the effectiveness given global trends.
Mainstream media's difficulty rallying behind Dutton.
(00:25:52) Cooker Report Part 2: Gosford & MyPlace
Dave attended the Lisa Bellamy independent campaign launch in Gosford.
Follow-on from "Coasties Who Care" (MyPlace environmentalist council ticket).
Shadowy Figure: Kate Mason (anti-renewable circuit, IPA/Advance events). Launched Bellamy's campaign.
Campaign barely mentions climate change, focuses on opposing Aboriginal Land Council developments.
Key Figures on Stage:
Jake Cassar (musician, prepper).
Lisa Bellamy (MyPlace coordinator, seen at Convoy with Kate Mason).
Vicki Burke (MyPlace food/water security organiser, believes in aliens/other planets).
Group suggests increased One Nation vote would benefit them. Bellamy received ~3000 votes previously.
Kate Mason's Agenda: Reshaping the environment movement to focus on conspiracies (15-min cities, anti-meat).
Shapeshifted from anti-vax (IMOP) -> Voice 'No' -> Anti-artificial food/Bellamy campaign.
Significant Telegram following despite "gobbledygook" posts.
Rally vs. Darkinjung Land Council/Woolworths Development: Focus remains on Land Council projects. Racist undertones ("love the land as much as we do").
Links to Garingai (now potentially split/rebranded). NRL Welcome to Country discussed.
Jake Cassar Deep Dive: Constant self-promotion, minimal concrete environmental vision beyond opposing the Land Council. Attacks Labor/Greens. Right-wing presence at events. Ballarat missing person search (found dog with SES). Yowie encounter at Woy Woy tip. Lack of accountability in Facebook environmental groups (anti-immigration/Aboriginal rhetoric).
(00:40:33) Monica Smit's Private Prosecution of Dan Andrews
Monica plans a private criminal prosecution against Dan Andrews (and Jacinta Allan).
Website Quote: "The wait is over righteous justice begins now" - Monica Smit.
Topher Field involved as cheerleader/promoter.
Basis: "New evidence" (Document 34 FOI email) allegedly showing curfew decision made before consulting CHO Brett Sutton. Implication: tyranny, not health advice.
Joel suggests it was likely capitulation to police enforcement ease.
Fundraising: Claimed $124,605 raised (via manually updated widget). Monica paid herself $1000/week stipend already.
Monica's Justification ("Why me?"): Stood toe-to-toe and won, relentless energy, prison time (refused bail), won appeal, resisted database handover, won unlawful arrest case (appealing costs decision), claims past refund integrity, lives simply, no distractions (children/friends).
Bender (@SpambotX) Twitter Thread: Brutal takedown of Monica as a "despicable con woman".
Highlights Consumer Affairs conviction ($66k pocketed from unregistered fundraiser).
Accuses Topher Field of seeking a cut.
Details legal failures, self-orchestrated "martyrdom", $250k legal bill after rejecting settlement.
Criticises "journalism" and book ("Cell 22").
Predicts prosecution failure and abandonment once donations dry up.
Bender's Legal Analysis (Round 2):
Private prosecution (Crimes Act s 321) needs prima facie case, not conspiracy.
Document 34 likely inadmissible hearsay.
Misconduct charge needs proof of knowing, malicious law-breaking (R v Quach).
Lockdowns upheld (Loielo v Giles), backed by Public Health Act & CHO advice.
DPP can shut down frivolous cases (Public Prosecutions Act s 22).
Previous treason case tossed out.
Criticises fundraising transparency (Fundraising Act 1998), $52k/year salary.
Highlights past legal issues (incitement charges dropped, health order conviction, Judge Tran's comments).
Past Precedent: 2021 private prosecution for treason (Anthony Herman) recalled - chaotic online hearing.
Monica's Timeline & Updates:
Initial plan: Assemble legal team by April 24, first meeting April 30.
Reality (May 1): No team announced. Video claims it will take "a few weeks" to pick lawyers.
Met with a lawyer ($500/hr, 2 hours booked).
Posted picture near a waterfall instead of legal updates ("reset and reload").
Now targeting Jacinta Allan as well.
Promises refund of remaining balance if no prospect of success.
Discussion on cooker lawyers (Matouk, Buckley). Monica's motivation seen as attention/clout chasing.
(01:17:54) Return to The Cali (Caledonian Hotel, Singleton)
Dave attended Pauline Hanson & Stuart Bonds event ($20 lunch that never happened).
Low turnout (~45 people in beer garden). Regulars, pensioners, Chris Sky filming, James Ashby present.
Stuart Bonds Guardian article discussed (misogyny, anti-vax, "Little Hitlers"). Worn as badge of honour.
Homeschooling attempt due to "woke trans agenda".
Red Ensign described as "real flag".
Unregistered campaign trailer incident.
Pauline Hanson: Speech built to "greatest hits" (Aboriginal industry). Mumbles less the longer she speaks.
Cali Update: Corruption Whistleblower book sold at bar (credit card accepted). Eureka beer on tap (FJB beer rebranded/gone?). Frenchies brewery connection? Pub seems to be returning to normal operations, but Red Ensign still flies. Food looks good, beer selection poor (Lion Nathan). No coal miners attended the event despite Bonds' background.
(01:36:30) Candidates Forum: Patterson (Port Stephens)
Dave attended forum; ABC filming due to anti-wind turbine mob presence.
Low turnout of protesters (~5 loud individuals). Meryl Swanson (Labor incumbent) well-prepared.
Marginal seat: Libs (Lawrence Ancliffe), aligned Independent, One Nation, Trumpet, Family First running against Swanson.
History of intimidation (boat incident during Mayoral campaign).
Betting odds discussed (Labor $1.66, Coalition $2.37). YouGov poll (Labor 51.8%).
Irony: Libs proposed nuclear plant at Port Stephens in 2007.
Bizarre Moments:
Trumpet candidate Peter Arena: Wind turbines interfere with missile detection; mentioned fighting audience member over wife littering.
(01:42:37) Billy Bay vs GAP Feud Update
Dr. William Bay told people not to vote for GAP (Great Australian Party) despite running for them.
Rod Culleton's response.
Billy Bay's letter to Culleton: Mock SovCit style ("Office of Vexatious Litigants and Spiritual Audits"), demands apology, foot kissing, $8 trillion. Full of threats (librarian grievance, livestream in lab coat, seizing karma balance). Written on GAP letterhead.
Feud background (payment disputes) covered previously by Tinfoil Tales.
(01:46:51) Amelia Hamer (Liberal, Kooyong) vs The People
Recap: Fake renter scandal (owns 2 properties + trust fund beneficiary).
A-Frame sign spamming controversy vs Monique Ryan (Teal MP).
Council imposed one-sign limit due to safety/obstruction complaints.
Liberals took council to Supreme Court over implied freedom of political communication.
Court upheld freedom but allowed council safety enforcement (opaque outcome).
Likely outcome: confrontations over sign placement. James Patterson claiming victory. Joel predicts local backlash.
(01:51:08) Election Odds & Predictions
Sportsbet: Labor $1.05, Coalition $9.50.
YouGov: Labor 53 / Coalition 47 (2PP). Projecting 84 seats for Labor (75 needed for majority).
Dickson (Dutton's seat): YouGov 50.2% LNP / 49.8% ALP. Sportsbet has Dutton favourite ($1.28 vs $3.35).
Joel laments betting ban but expresses optimism for Labor win, potential Dutton loss.
(01:53:29) Wrap Up & Outro
Joel thanks Dave for his "invaluable" and "brave" cooker reporting.
Standard Patreon plugs etc. skipped.
Sign off & enjoy the election.
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AI shownotes again. I'm sure they are totally accurate.
Recorded: ANZAC Day (Australian Public Holiday)
Hosts: Jack the Insider & Hong Kong Jack
Introduction & ANZAC Day Reflections (00:00:01 - 00:01:17)Jack the Insider welcomes listeners to Episode 111, recorded on ANZAC Day.Mention of an interruption at the Melbourne Dawn Service involving neo-Nazi Jacob Hersant.Introduction of Hong Kong Jack.Hong Kong Update & Australian Politics (00:01:17 - 00:10:05)Hong Kong Exodus: Hong Kong Jack notes 2.2 million people left Hong Kong over Easter.Jacob Hersant Incident: Further discussion on the neo-Nazi escorted from the Shrine of Remembrance.Rise of Neo-Nazism & Fringe Candidates: Jack the Insider discusses the history (Jim Sallium) and current state of far-right politics, including candidates with criminal convictions (Rod Culleton, Dixon candidate) potentially running despite Section 44 eligibility issues.Section 44 Cases: Mention of Phil Cleary and a Greens candidate ("secret New Zealander").YouGov Poll Analysis:Labor: 33.5%LNP: 31%Greens: 14%One Nation: 10.5% (up significantly from ~5% in 2022)TPP: 53.5% (Labor) / 46.5% (LNP)Preference Flows: Discussion on One Nation's decision to preference LNP and historical preference flows to Labor. Challenges for minor parties getting How-To-Vote cards distributed (comparison to Democrats).Election Analysis & Predictions (00:10:05 - 00:20:42)Declining Two-Party System: Combined Labor/LNP primary vote down from the last election.LNP Strategy Critiqued: Jack the Insider criticizes the LNP for not adapting post-2022 election, particularly regarding teal seats and climate change.Campaign Trail: Albanese campaigning in Liberal marginals; Dutton's comments on Melbourne safety.Election Outcome Predictions:Jack the Insider: Labor majority (around 76-80 seats).Hong Kong Jack: Labor minority.Liberal Campaign Issues: Comparison to Latham's 2004 campaign, social media mishaps ("muppet heads"), vehicle emissions policy backflip.Betting Odds: Discussion on the shift in betting markets, favoring Labor.Early Voting: Debate on the merits and drawbacks of pre-polling, referencing Darren Hinch and Imre Selizynski's comments, and accessibility issues.Politics, Religion & Geopolitics (00:20:42 - 00:41:55)Preference Deals & Jewish Community: Discussion on Labor's preference deals with the Greens in McNamara (open ticket for Josh Burns) vs. Isaacs (Mark Dreyfus), causing concern in the Jewish community. Mention of the Adas Israel synagogue firebombing and surrounding uncertainties/rumours.Pope Francis's Passing: Reflections on his papacy. Hong Kong Jack prefers John Paul II; Jack the Insider defends Francis and criticizes JP II over handling scandals. Discussion on potential successors and the slow pace of change in the Catholic Church.Easter & Religion: Easter memes, the role of the Catholic Church (charity vs. criticism), changes in Ireland, Catholics selectively following doctrine (e.g., contraception).India-Pakistan Tensions: Escalation following a militant attack in Kashmir. India threatens to cut off water supplies to Pakistan. Historical context, nuclear capabilities, and the danger of water rights disputes. Brief mentions of Pakistan's internal issues and conditions in Bangladesh.US Politics & Global Affairs (00:41:55 - 00:55:28)Trump & Trade: Trump walks back China tariff threats after meeting retail executives concerned about Christmas stock. Discussion on Trump's understanding of trade.US Courts & Executive Orders: Judge Kollar-Kotelly's ruling striking down parts of Trump's order requiring citizenship proof for voter registration, while upholding other sections. Discussion on the proper role of courts, checks and balances, and Congress's inaction leading to increased reliance on executive orders.Russia-Ukraine Peace Proposal: Details of a proposed deal involving US recognition of Russian control over Crimea/Eastern regions, no NATO for Ukraine, lifting sanctions vs. European security guarantees for Ukraine, return of some territory, etc. Criticism from Boris Johnson; seen as unfavourable to Ukraine. Trump's tweet urging Putin to stop strikes on Kyiv.Anniversaries & Culture (00:55:28 - 00:58:31)Saigon Evacuation: 50th anniversary of the Australian Embassy evacuation, noting local staff left behind.Crocodile Dundee: 39th anniversary. Paul Hogan's comments, investment success stories (Dennis Lillee).Yahoo Serious: Mention of a current court case.Sports: Cricket, AFL & More (00:58:31 - 01:29:28)Keith Stackpole (RIP): Tribute to the former Australian cricketer. Discussion of his career as a player (opener, aggressive batsman) and commentator. Anecdotes involving Bill Lawry, Kerry O'Keeffe, Harsha Bhogle.AFL Send-Off Rule Debate: Sparked by the Nash/Miers incident. Arguments for/against a red card, implementation challenges (timing, concussion protocols), historical examples, Lee Matthews' view.MCG Security & SCG Fan Ban: Increased security for ANZAC Day game. Discussion on the SCG Trust's two-year ban on a 16-year-old fan for throwing/dropping a record near Aliir Aliir – deemed excessive by the hosts.Noah Balta Controversy: Richmond player playing before being sentenced for assault. Criticism of Richmond's handling, the AFL's stance, player's curfew impacting availability, and political commentary surrounding the issue.Tom De Koning Contract: Rumoured huge offer from St Kilda. Discussion on his value, the Gawn/Grundy comparison, implications for both clubs, and the changing role/importance of elite ruckmen.NRL: Broncos defeat Bulldogs; several Bulldogs players facing bans. Roosters vs Dragons ANZAC match preview.Rugby & Cricket Updates: James O'Connor's late-game heroics; Cameron Green's century on County debut for Gloucestershire; IPL viewing challenges.Final Thoughts (01:29:28 - End)Meat Consumption Trends: Rebound in meat buying over plant-based alternatives.Unnecessary Technology: Comparison of plant-based foods and internet-connected fridges.ANZAC Day AFL Game: 30th anniversary of the Essendon vs Collingwood match, origins involving Kevin Sheedy and Gabby Allen.Wrap-up & Sign-off. -
Listeners this one is a bit hectic. The kids are getting up to all sorts of cooked stuff online and it involves a lot of real life traumatic behaviour which is deeply unpleasant and completely depraved. But it's important to discuss stuff like this as sunlight can have a positive impact on making these people less brazen and more afraid of the consequences of their horrible actions.
Anyway, here's some AI slop shownotes - Listener discretion is advised!
The Conditioned Release Program: Episode 183 - The Kids Are Not Alright
Hosts: Jack the Insider (Peter Hoysted) & Joel Hill
Episode Summary:
In this deeply unsettling episode, Jack and Joel dive into the dark corners of the internet to expose dangerous online child exploitation networks. The primary focus is on the group known as 764, but the discussion also covers related extremist networks like CVLT, NLM (No Lives Matter), and the Order of Nine Angles (O9A). The hosts catalogue the disturbing methods these groups use, the real-world harm they inflict, and the challenges faced in combating them.
Content Warning:
This episode contains extremely disturbing content, including detailed discussions of child sex exploitation, suicide, self-harm, grooming, coercion, and mass murder events.Listener discretion is strongly advised. If you are not prepared for graphic and upsetting material, please skip this episode. (00:01:05 - 00:01:25)Support & Helplines:
If this episode raises concerns, please reach out for support:Lifeline Australia: 13 11 14Suicide Call Back Service: 1300 659 467 (00:01:37)Support the Conditioned Release Program on Patreon to help them continue their research and production: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram (00:02:07 - 00:02:44)Key Topics & Timestamps:
(00:00:09) Introduction: Jack and Joel introduce the grim topic: the dangers lurking online for children.(00:00:49) Introducing 764: Joel introduces the focus on online exploitation networks, particularly the group 764.(00:04:32) What is 764?: A closer look at 764 - an online network primarily involving teenage boys coercing and blackmailing vulnerable peers (often girls) into self-harm and producing CSAM (Child Sexual Abuse Material). Discusses incel vibes and the fluid nature of membership between extremist groups.(00:10:56) Origins & Related Networks: Exploration of the networks that preceded or inspired 764:CVLT (Cult with a V): (00:11:11, 00:34:00)NLM (No Lives Matter): (00:11:20, 00:44:09)Order of Nine Angles (O9A): (00:11:20, 00:48:04)The COM (Community): (00:12:04)(00:12:17) Precursors - The Blue Whale Challenge: Discussion of the infamous 2016 "game" linked to numerous child suicides in Russia.(00:29:15) Challenges in Policing/Research: The difficulty researchers, media, and academics face in tracking these groups due to the prevalence of illegal CSAM, which carries strict liability offences for possession/viewing.(00:33:36) Case Study - Bradley Cadenhead: The founder of 764 (handles: Brad764, Felix764), arrested in Texas for CSAM possession/distribution and manipulation of minors. His links to CVLT and Caleb Merritt.(00:34:13) Case Study - Caleb Merritt: Leader of CVLT, arrested for kidnapping, rape, CSAM, and grooming. Currently serving a 30-year sentence. Linked to an international neo-fascist group.(00:44:09) NLM (No Lives Matter) Deep Dive: Examination of NLM's extremist publications (The Terror Guide, The Manhunt Guide, NLM Kill Guide), operational security, and partnerships with neo-Nazi groups like Mordwaffen Division (MWD) and the Russian WRME/MKU (Maniac Murder Cult).(00:48:04) Order of Nine Angles (O9A) Deep Dive: Discussion of O9A's extreme neo-Nazi, Satanist ideology focused on societal collapse through violence, infiltration (e.g., military, police), and "culling." Mention of the US Marine who plotted an attack on his own unit. (00:51:15)(00:52:00) Recent Incidents: Mention of a 16-year-old arrested in the US (April 2025) for killing his parents as part of a plot against Donald Trump, highlighting potential links to these ideologies.(00:52:45) Case Study - Finnegan: UK 764 member who pleaded guilty to encouraging suicide, possessing terrorism manuals, and CSAM.(01:06:25) The Dilemma of Reporting: Discussion on the balancing act authorities face between warning the public (especially parents) about these groups and the risk of inadvertently promoting them or inspiring copycats among vulnerable teens.(01:24:49) Final Thoughts on 764: Recap of the unpleasant but necessary discussion, emphasizing the low public awareness and the constantly evolving, organic nature of these groups.(01:25:42) The Week in Pete Evans: A shift to a lighter segment to decompress after the heavy main topic.Calls to Action:
Share this episode: Given the critical importance and low awareness of this topic, please share this episode with others, especially parents, while including the necessary content warnings. (01:46:50)Subscribe & Review: Subscribe to The Conditioned Release Program and leave a five-star review if you appreciate their work. (01:46:17)Patreon: Support the show via Patreon. (01:47:16)Contact: Send feedback, tips, or death threats to [email protected]. (01:47:34)(Note: The hosts mention they are not active on Twitter/X) (01:46:23) -
HECTIC AI SHOWNOTES CAUSE WE ARE LAZY, GOBBLESS.
Enjoy!
The Two Jacks - Episode 109: Election Update, Tariff Tremors & Online PolicingHosted by: Hong Kong Jack & Jack the Insider
Welcome to Episode 109 of The Two Jacks! This week, Jack and Jackdive into the thick of the Australian federal election, dissect President Trump's latest tariff moves, debate the policing of online speech, and touch on French politics, climate action, and sports.
Key Topics Discussed:
Australian Federal Election (00:00:20)Campaign Update: Entering the second week.Polling: Labor showing potential for a majority (News Poll 52-48), similar to other polls (51-49 to 52-48), despite a low primary vote (~32.5%). Recalls Labor's 2022 win with a similar primary vote.Leaders' Debate: Discussion of the Sky News debate between Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese. Joel views it as a draw, though Albanese was declared the winner by audience vote (approx. 44-35).Campaign Weaknesses (00:17:45): Both Jacks agree the campaign lacks substance, particularly on crucial issues like productivity and housing affordability. They note the difficulty for citizens needing to live far from CBDs (e.g., South Morang vs. Fitzroy historically) and criticize the parties for avoiding hard decisions.US Tariffs & Global Economy (00:28:00 & 00:48:04)Trump's Tariff Policy: Discussion on the imposition and subsequent 90-day delay of new tariffs on countries like Vietnam (47%), the Philippines (17%), and others. Standard 10% tariff remains elsewhere.Negotiations: Reports of Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan engaging or preparing to negotiate, though Trump's claims about eagerness are questioned. Japan plans a "comprehensive response."Market Impact (00:30:08): Initial $9 trillion market loss, followed by a significant S&P 500 recovery (largest since 2008, but still below January levels). Oil prices jumped, and US bond yields fell, raising debt crisis concerns. Jack emphasizes the importance of bond yields (cost of borrowing for the US government).Motivations & Consequences (00:40:07): Is it an assertion of US economic muscle? Jack notes bipartisan support for the idea (feeling the US gets the short end), but the hosts critique the erratic rollout. Potential consequences include US inflation, slowed GDP growth, and job losses.Listener Feedback (Lawrence) (00:48:04): Criticizes the "schizophrenic" messaging (tariffs fixing jobs and deficits simultaneously) and the floated (but unconfirmed by Trump admin) idea of abolishing income tax.Outlook: Potential shift towards multilateral trade negotiations among other countries.Listener Feedback: ABC Radio (00:45:51)Listener Lawrence reflects on the Jacks' previous comments about changes at ABC Radio, noting a perceived shift in their stance from wanting "new blood" to "bemoaning changes."Joel's Clarification: Concern is about management bringing in people with FM radio backgrounds lacking national broadcaster experience, not against new faces generally.Jack's Clarification: Agrees on needing turnover ("new voices") but questions the strategy of chasing a youth demographic on ABC Radio, suggesting consolidation of the existing audience is better.Social Media Censorship & Online Dangers (UK Focus) (00:51:20)UK Arrests: Report from The Times: British police making ~33 arrests daily in 2023/24 for "offensive" online posts causing "annoyance, inconvenience or anxiety" (12,183 arrests total), a 58% rise since 2019.Policing Concerns: Many arrests lead to questioning and release without charge, raising questions about efficient use of police resources. Jack mentions the decriminalization of burglary adding context.Historical Context (00:54:31): Jack traces the issue back to the late 1990s and the concept of "non-crime hate incidents" arising from the Stephen Lawrence inquiry, arguing it introduced subjectivity and inconsistency compared to investigating objective crimes. He critiques arresting people before establishing if a crime occurred.Nuance & Online Harms (00:56:40): Joel notes arrests might relate to other offenses alongside "malicious communications." While agreeing trivial cases waste resources, he highlights the dark side of social media, including severe online bullying (mentions group "764-JAC") and stalking, arguing police surveillance is needed for serious threats.Under-16 Social Media Ban (01:02:37): Joel reflects on the Albanese government's ban, admitting he initially opposed it but is reconsidering due to the severity of online harms affecting children.French Politics Update (01:03:47)Far-right leader Marine Le Pen vows presidential run, controversially comparing herself to Martin Luther King Jr. and Alexei Navalny.Jordan Bardella (29 y.o. National Rally Chairman) emerges as a potential alternative, stating he could run if Le Pen is unable. Both Jacks see this as a likely and possibly strategically better outcome for the party.Climate Action & Protests (01:06:00)Discussion on Extinction Rebellion protests (e.g., Sydney Harbour Bridge closure) and their effectiveness versus public disruption.Critique of proposed policies like banning private jets or frequent flyer taxes as unworkable and unhelpful grandstanding.Jack jokes he's the "Greta Thunberg of Hong Kong" due to his low carbon footprint (no car, little travel).Sporting RoundupCricket (01:10:00): Sheffield Shield Final recap (Victoria vs WA), WA wins due to finishing top after a draw. Historical anecdote about Bill Ponsford's marathon innings in the 1948 final. Marcus Harris's recent form (161 in Shield, 138 for Lancashire).AFL (01:19:30): Discussion on Tasmania's potential AFL team, stadium funding debates, and the Gather Round concept's success in South Australia and potential future locations.Final Listener Note & Sign Off (01:29:46)Listener CD provides follow-up on a previous discussion about Basil Zempilis, noting his uncle (Con Zempilis) was the Chief Stipendiary Magistrate for Western Australia.The Jacks wrap up Episode 109. -
And we're off and running to a federal election on May 3. The Two Jacks review the polling and the campaign thus far with Albo and Labor firming in polls and the betting markets. JTI looks at a mistake-addled period from the Coalition and wonders if they have run out of road. We also got to find out what corflutes are!
Meanwhile in the US, there is only Trump but how did this man get re-elected? Much of the blame falls on the Democrats as it is disclosed that senior Dems knew about the seriousness of Biden's cognisant decline and that Kamala was thrown up as the next woman in, while Obama and Pelosi in particular held serious doubts Harris could win.
We also debunk Trump's nonsense about a 3rd term as JTI argues that Trump causes distractions when he is in trouble.
In sport, Gout Gout comes second in a rare exciting time for Australian fans of track and field.
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We look at the depths of incompetence with the Signal saga - and look at the reality of whether all this is 'secure' or not.
RFK Jr. tells people to take vitamin A for measles. They do. It gives them liver damage.
Marky Mark and the Zucky Bunch decide to steal content from a website that steals content. How meta.
We have a new segment! Always The Ones You Most Expect. And yeah, it's what you think it is. Depressingly long.
And by god Pete's been to the USA and had a cracking time. Did he meet Don and Elon? Maybe. How much did it cost him? Other than his dignity.
Enjoy!
PS - don't forget 10% off at cbco.beer with CRP10 code!
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The Two Jacks discuss the Secret Signal scandal. The federal election is on. Who wins and why? Canada is off to the polls, too. Has Trump given the Canadian Liberals a second chance?
In sport, we eulogise George Foreman, and examine the AFL season to date.
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The Two Jacks discuss the conduct of Donald Trump's presidency and ask what SMH Foreign Editor, Peter Hartcher declared to be true in a column earlier in the week, that Trump was a Russian asset. JTI concluded that he didn't know if Trump was a Russian asset but if he wasn't, he was doing a good impersonation of one. The things to watch in any peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia (with the possibility of European troops in Ukraine as peacekeepers or observers) are the provision of US logistical support and intelligence sharing to the European coalition and Ukraine. If the US did not, then it was providing Russia with a decided advantage.
In Australian politics, JTI describes another bad week for the Coalition with plenty of misspeaking. In sport, India gets a homeground advantage in the Champions Trophy final and the Two Jacks give their tips for the final 8 in the NRL.
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The Two Jacks open with a discussion on Australian politics. Polling shows the Albanese government languishing and looking like losing between 15 and 20 seats. Meanwhile polling in the Teal held seat of Wentworth shows the Opposition under Peter Dutton will struggle to retain inner city seats lost in 2022. The prospect of minority government looms one way or another.
In the US, Good Trump emerges in an Oval Office meeting with UK PM Sir Keir Starmer but Bad Trump is never far away.
In sport, the Champions Trophy moves to its conclusion with England going home with their tails between their legs again. The Two Jacks offer their final 8 predictions for the 2025 AFL season.
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I got copilot to write the shownotes and they are awful. And it took me way longer to get copilot to do that than actually write something here. Anyway, here's some proof that our jobs are safe cause these shownotes are awful!
In summary - Jack has a spray on RFK Jr. about the measles outbreak which has absolutely got his fingerprints all over it. We have a cooker update with Oneegs jumping into bed with Jamie McIntyre who should not be directing companies for another year or so. SovCits has Jack look into Grant Hilton or Hudson - depending on who you ask and when you ask it. And Pete is back (not he isn't).
Episode 181: The Conditional Release Program
Hosts: Jack the Insider (Peter) and Joel Hill
Introduction:
[00:00:37] Welcome to the Conditional Release Program, a podcast exploring the world of cults, scams, and con artists.[00:00:43] Hosts introduce themselves: Jack the Insider (Peter) and Joel Hill.[00:00:50] Setting the tone with humor and critical commentary. Joel asks the hard-hitting question: "Will Bobby Kennedy Jr. kill more people than Elon Musk?"Main Topics:
Bobby Kennedy Jr. and Anti-Vax Advocacy:[00:01:18] Discussion on Bobby Kennedy Jr.'s anti-vaccine stance and its impact on public health.[00:01:25] Comparison between Bobby Kennedy Jr. and Elon Musk in terms of potential harm caused. Spoiler: It's not a competition you want to win.[00:04:00] Analysis of the resurgence of measles in the US and the role of anti-vaccine rhetoric. Measles is back, and it's not bringing sexy back with it.Cryptocurrency and Financial Scams:[00:02:32] Examination of the volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Crypto is like a rollercoaster, but without the safety harness.[00:03:01] Critique of various financial scams and the individuals behind them. Jamie McIntyre gets a special mention for his creative approach to financial advice.[00:03:07] Mention of Jamie McIntyre and his involvement in dubious financial schemes. Trust him with your money? Maybe not.Political Commentary:[00:22:27] Insight into the current political landscape in the US and Australia. Spoiler: It's a mess.[00:22:44] Predictions and analysis of upcoming elections and political strategies. Betting on politics is like betting on a three-legged horse.[00:23:01] Commentary on the influence of right-wing parties and their tactics. The cookers are mobilizing, but will they make a difference?Sovereign Citizens and Legal Troubles:[00:55:06] Case study of Grant Warren Hudson (aka Grant Hilton) and his interactions with law enforcement. Spoiler: It doesn't go well.[00:55:18] Exploration of the sovereign citizen movement and its legal implications. Hint: Telling cops your car is in "dry dock" doesn't work.[00:56:08] Discussion on the tactics used by sovereign citizens to evade legal responsibilities. Pro tip: Don't try this at home.Health and Medical Misinformation:[00:19:00] Critique of anti-vaccine advocates and their impact on public health. Spoiler: It's not good.[00:19:16] Discussion on the importance of vaccination and the dangers of misinformation. Vaccines save lives, folks.[00:19:55] Mention of Dr. Billy Bay and his legal battles related to medical practice. Dr. DoorDash is back, but not for long.Cooker Update:[00:28:00] Updates on various individuals and movements within the cooker community. Spoiler: It's still a circus.[00:28:27] Analysis of recent events and their implications for public safety and health. The cookers are getting more militant, but still not more coherent.[01:20:56] Mention of notable figures like Pete Evans and their ongoing activities. Pete's back on Instagram, and the world collectively yawns.Conclusion:
[01:27:12] Summary of the main points discussed in the episode. Spoiler: It's a wild ride.[01:27:22] Hosts encourage listeners to stay informed and critical of misinformation. Don't believe everything you hear, except on this podcast.[01:27:44] Call to action for listeners to support the podcast through Patreon and social media. Help keep the lights on and the cookers at bay.Additional Information:
Patreon: Support the podcast for exclusive content and behind-the-scenes access. Get the juicy stuff you won't hear anywhere else.Social Media: Follow the hosts on Twitter and join the Facebook page for updates and discussions. Join the conversation and share your thoughts.Contact: Send feedback, tips, and questions to the podcast email. We love hearing from you, even if it's to tell us we're wrong.CRP10 is the discount code for CBCo and their IPA remains the best in the country (next to Grifter Big Sur which is way more expensive).
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The Two Jacks discuss the federal election with polling showing the Coalition may form minority government.
The big news is in Ukraine where the Trump administration has signalled a peace which is little more than a surrender for Ukraine.
In sport, the Champions League gets underway in Pakistan and Dubai.
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The Two Jacks examine the conduct of the Opposition in the parliament when Attorney General Mark Dreyfus tried to tell the parliament his Shoah story - about his familial links with the Holocaust -- only to have the Opposition seek to gag him. The story was not well reported in the media but the Australian Jewish News ran hard with the story.
In the US, Trump continues with his black texta reforms while HK Jack defends the role of USAID. Germany has its national elections just two weeks away as an Afghan asylum seeker drives a vehicle into a crowd in Munich, injuring 30 people.
In sport, we look at the Sam Kerr case where she was acquitted. Can she captain the Matildas again? Sure, why not.
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Jack has been watching WAY too many YouTube videos and the brainrot is terminal. He focused his sights on the 'first amendment auditors' who film people in public to bait a response. Then he started watching videos of so called 'concerned dads' who have used opaque methods to entrap men into turning up to a location for a beating - all in the name of content. Nobody likes a paedo - but is due process actually dead? Trial by social media is a scourge on society and Jack won't have a bar of it.
Enjoy!
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So there's a gap in the episodes. Don't ask me, guys - I'm just producing the damn thing - Joel.
We start off by taking a look at Peter Dutton's policies, light on detail and ask if the electorate will buy it?
Meanwhile in the US, Musk's Dogs is causing chaos. Is it a matter of stopping government waste. That's the headline but the truth is a lot uglier. Where will it end? Only Musk seems to know.
In sport, should there be a men's health round in round one to highlight the tragedy of suicide?
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He said a lot about day one and now it has happened. Around 200 'executive orders' were signed. Plenty of them were completely illegal, but let's just do whatever we want while the courts figure that out. Injunction? That's next week's problem - if you're lucky.
In the meantime - here is some Ai slop shownotes cause I've had a real bastard of a week and I don't have it in me to write anything interesting.
Episode is good though.
oh and buy cbco beer from cbco.beer and use crp10 to get 10% off
I assure you, their IPA is one of the best in the country and their NEIPA is up there with the guys who charge much much more. Get on it.
AI SHOWNOTES:
Trump's Inauguration: A Dive into Scams, Politics, and Controversies
In this episode of the Conditional Release Program, hosts Jack the Insider and Joel Hill explore the chaotic first days of Donald Trump's second term as the 45th and 47th POTUS. They discuss the inauguration, the flood of executive orders, and highlight various scams and controversies, including the Trump cryptocurrency schemes and the pardoning of controversial figures. The episode also delves into the potential impact of new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, speculating on the inflationary effects and the broader economic consequences. Amidst all this, they touch on Elon Musk’s controversial Nazi salute during the inauguration and the various legal battles surrounding Trump’s policies. This episode provides a detailed, and often humorous, examination of the early days of what promises to be a turbulent administration.
00:00 Introduction and Hosts' Banter
00:49 Trump's First Hundred Hours
01:47 Raising Spirits with Humor (attempted)
02:51 Discount Code for CBCo Beers
04:56 Trump's Crypto Scams
05:20 Crypto Community Reactions
05:56 Reverend Lorenzo Sewell's memecoin
08:16 Trump Coin and Melania Coin
14:08 SEC and Crypto Regulations
17:38 Biden and Trump's Controversial Pardons
32:48 Vegan Leather Guns and Jail Time (ft q-anon shaman)
33:20 The Infamous Ed Welch Incident
34:18 Pardons and Reoffending
36:48 Ross Ulbricht and Libertarian Support
44:28 Trump's Controversial Plans
59:06 Elon Musk's Nazi Salute Controversy
01:07:14 Police and Nazis: A Controversial Encounter
01:07:46 Tom Sewell's Media Obsession
01:08:23 Libs of TikTok and Media Double Standards
01:09:49 Elon Musk and Political Drama
01:11:53 Trump's Tariff Plans and Economic Impact
01:29:48 The Complexities of Immigration Policies
01:40:56 Conclusion and Future Topics
These are specifically shit shownotes but at least there's chapter marks. I edited it a bit cause it was so blatantly wrong originally.
Enjoy!
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Shownotes are done by Ai and so is the edit. It's a little choppy at times, but it will do. Ed is a good friend of the podcast and an excellent guest.
The audiobook can be found here:
Facts and Other Lies by Ed Coper - Audiobook - Audible.com.au
and the actual book in places that hopefully aren't amazon.
In the meantime, buy CBCo beer. Discount code is CRP10. It's good. Trust me.
Here's what the robots think of the show! Enjoy.
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Navigating the Disinformation Age: An Interview with Ed Coper
In this episode of the Conditional Release Program, host Joel Hill welcomes Ed Coper, author of 'Facts and Other Lies: Welcome to the Disinformation Age.' The episode explores various aspects of the modern disinformation landscape shaped by the post-truth era.
Coper's book, published in 2023, delves into academic research and real-world examples of disinformation, sprinkled with humor. The discussion highlights the role of social media, echo chambers, and the psychological aspects that make disinformation hard to combat. The conversation also covers pre-bunking vs. debunking techniques, the evolving role of AI in spreading disinformation, the influence of tech companies like Facebook and Twitter, and the necessity of a robust digital literacy curriculum. Future election campaigns and the role of disinformation are also discussed, with a focus on practical steps individuals can take to promote factual information.
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome
00:19 Book Overview: Facts and Other Lies
01:21 The Disinformation Age
03:24 Information Tribes and Social Dynamics
08:55 Shared Reality and Media Fragmentation
13:57 Debunking vs. Prebunking
22:58 The Rise of AI and Bots
29:10 Media Literacy and the Next Generation
35:49 The Attention Economy and Rage Bait
41:13 The Illusion of Immunity to Disinformation
43:32 Internet Arguments and Social Media Dynamics
48:39 The Participatory Nature of Conspiracy Theories
55:22 Disinformation in the Upcoming Federal Election
01:00:36 Meta's Shift and the Influence of Tech Giants
01:08:58 TikTok's Precarious Position and Authoritarian Influence
01:15:02 Closing Thoughts on Disinformation
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The Two Jacks look at the coming year and offer some predictions on the Australian federal election, what might happen with a second Trump presidency, where Europe is headed and is it possible the New Year will usher in a period of peace in the Middle East? In sport, the Test World Championship beckons. Will Australia defend its title and what of the powerhouse of world cricket, India?
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In this episode we continue the process of unravelling RFK Jr.'s worm riddled brain. We continue to tear apart his absurd tweet which claims the FDA is waging war on things like 'exercise' and 'sunlight' and look further into the implications of his role in the Trump administration - if he actually gets confirmed.
As usual, the CRP10 coupon code still works at cbco.beer and apologies for this one coming out late - a bit of covid and a lot of day drinking has prevented me from editing and publishing it.
Enjoy!
Here are some vague AI generated timestamps. They are probably wrong.
00:00:01
Dismantling the FDA: RFK Jr.'s Crusade
00:56:54
Cannabis Tax Revenues Funding Public Schools
01:10:27
Birthright Citizenship and the Supreme Court
01:20:49
The Pitfalls of Organic Farming: Lessons from Sri Lanka
01:23:56
Exploring Sri Lanka and Pharmaceutical Advertising Regulations
01:30:18
The Effectiveness of the HPV Vaccine
- Visa fler
