Avsnitt

  • Oeindrila Dube is the Philip K. Pearson Professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy.

    In this episode, we discuss Prof. Dube's research on a cognitive behavioral training program for police.

    “A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    "Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

    "Can You Build a Better Cop?" by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.

    "The Impacts of Implicit Bias Awareness Training in the NYPD" by Robert E. Worden, Sarah J. McLean, Robin S. Engel, Hannah Cochran, Nicholas Corsaro, Danielle Reynolds, Cynthia J. Najdowski, and Gabrielle T. Isaza.

    "The impact of implicit bias-oriented diversity training on police officers’ beliefs, motivations, and actions" by Calvin K. Lai and Jaclyn A. Lisnek.

    "Does De-escalation Training Work?" by Robin S. Engel, Hannah D. McManus, and Tamara D. Herold.

    "Assessing the Impact of De-escalation Training on Police Behavior: Reducing Police Use of Force in the Louisville, KY Metro Police Department" by Robin S. Engel, Nicholas Corsaro, Gabrielle T. Isaza, and Hannah D. McManus.

    “Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.

    "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.

    Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour

    "Peer Effects in Police Use of Force" by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.

    "The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force" by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.

    Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross

  • Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.

    "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.

    “The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce.

    “The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif.

    “Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker.

    “Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker.

    “As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson.

    “Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack.

    “Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian.

    “The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

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  • Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020.

    "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    "Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.

    “Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.

    “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.

    “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.

    “The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson.

    Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson

    "Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

    “Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

  • Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague on Medicaid Access and Recidivism

    In this insightful episode, Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague delve into the critical role Medicaid access plays in affecting recidivism rates, drawing on their comprehensive research. Through a discussion that spans health policy, economics, and the intricacies of Medicaid's impact on individuals reentering society post-incarceration, the episode sheds light on the tangible benefits of accessible healthcare services.

    Key Research Discussed:

    Main Study: "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. This pivotal study forms the episode's backbone, illustrating how Medicaid access can significantly reduce recidivism rates among formerly incarcerated individuals. Read the study.

    Additional Research Covered:

    The episode also touches on other influential works that explore the intersection of Medicaid eligibility, mental health, and criminal involvement, including studies by Elisa Jacome, Jessica T. Simes, Jaquelyn L. Jahn, Kathryn L. Wagner, Jacob Vogler, Qiwei He, Scott Bardowski, Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings, Crystal S. Yang, Jillian B. Carr, Analisa Packham, Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, James X. Sullivan, Manasi Deshpande, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Cody Tuttle. These works collectively underscore the complex relationship between public health insurance, criminal behavior, and social welfare programs.

    Episode Highlights:

    Marguerite Burns' Journey: Starting from her experiences as a community health center administrator, Burns shares her transition into a health services researcher focusing on Medicaid's impact on adults with substance use and mental health disorders.Laura Dague's Path: Dague recounts her evolution from a rural Kansas native with a burgeoning interest in public policy to an expert in health economics, emphasizing Medicaid's role as a critical safety net.Policy Changes in Wisconsin: The episode delves into Wisconsin's Medicaid policy alterations, including eligibility expansion and pre-release enrollment assistance programs, and their profound impact on Medicaid enrollment among the formerly incarcerated.Data and Methodology: Burns and Dague discuss the unique dataset they constructed, combining Department of Corrections and Medicaid data to analyze the effects of Medicaid access on recidivism and employment.Findings and Implications: The significant reduction in reincarceration rates and improvement in employment among those with Medicaid coverage post-release are highlighted. The conversation also explores potential mechanisms behind these effects, underscoring the importance of considering Medicaid access in policy formulations aimed at supporting reentry.

    For Further Exploration:

    Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility by Elisa JacomeProbable Causation Episode 60 featuring Elisa JacomeAdditional readings and resources related to Medicaid's consequences on public health, crime reduction, and welfare benefits are provided, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the topic.

    “The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests” by Jessica T. Simes and Jaquelyn L. Jahn.

    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261512

    “Public health insurance and impacts on crime incidences and mental health" by Kathryn L. Wagner.

    https://doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2020-0190

    "Access to health Care and Criminal Behavior: Evidence form the ACA Medicaid Expansions" by Jacob Vogler.

    https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22239

    "The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion" by Qiwei He and Scott Bardowski.

    https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3977

    "The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-Waiver Expansions" by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, and Janet R. Cummings.

    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.09.001

    "Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?" by Crystal S. Yang.

    https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20171001

    “SNAP benefits and crime: Evidence from changing disbursement schedules” by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham.

    https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00757

    "Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan.

    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.10.012

    “Does welfare prevent crime? The criminal justice outcomes of youth removed from SSI" by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.

    https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac017

    "Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle.

    https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20170490

  • William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism.

    "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

    “Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.

    Probable Causation Episode 23: Lelys Dinarte.

    "One Size Doesn’t Fit All – The Heterogeneous Effects of Prison Programs" by Michael LaForest-Tucker. [Working paper available from the author.]

    "Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

  • Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020.

    "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.

    “The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

    “The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

    “A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

    “Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.

    “No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe.

    “Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

    “The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

    “The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

  • Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs.

    "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.

    "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber.

    "Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg.

    "Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.

    "The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.

    "The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.

    "A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.

    "Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman.

    "An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker.

    "The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh.

    "Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith.

    "What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel.

    "Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall.

    "The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler.

    "An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman.

    "How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino.

    "Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen.

    "School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.

  • Xinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence.

    “Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence” by Xinming Du.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion Through Social Networks” by Adam Kramer, Jamie Guillory, and Jeffrey Hancock.

    “Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence from Russia” by Ruben Enikolopov, Alexey Makarin, and Maria Petrova.

    “Fanning the Flames of Hate: Social Media and Hate Crime” by Karsten Muller and Carlo Schwarz.

    Episode 35 of Probable Causation: Erich Muehlegger

    “Toxic Content and User Engagement on Social Media: Evidence from a Field Experiment” by George Beknazar-Yuzbashev, Rafael Jiménez Durán, Jesse McCrosky, and Mateusz Stalinski.

    “Social Media and Mental Health” by Luca Braghieri, Ro’ee Levy, and Alexey Makarin.

  • Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho talk about the effects of renter protection policies (including limits on landlords' use of criminal records) in Minneapolis.

    “The Impact of Renter Protection Policies on Housing Discrimination in Minneapolis” by Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “The Unintended Consequences of ‘Ban the Box’: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes when Criminal Histories are Hidden” by Jennifer Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.

    “Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment” by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.

    Episode 8 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan.

    “Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment” by Abigail Wozniak.

    “Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks” by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson.

    “Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study” by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.

  • Ben Feigenberg talks about socioeconomic disparities in who police stop for traffic offenses.

    “Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “Would Eliminating Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches Have Efficiency Costs?” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.

    “Smartphone Data Reveal Neighborhood-Level Racial Disparities in Police Presence” by M. Keith Chen, Katherine L. Christensen, Elicia John, Emily Owens, and Yilin Zhou.

    “Multitasking, Expectations, and Police Officer Behavior” by James Reeves. [Draft available from author upon request].

    “My Taxes are Too Darn High: Why Do Households Protest Their Taxes?” by Brad C. Nathan, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, and Alejandro Zentner.

  • Evan Rose talks about community supervision, and the costs and benefits of incarceration as a consequence for breaking probation rules

    “Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “Five Year Outcomes in a Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Multi-Agency Intensive Supervision Juvenile Probation Program” by Karen Hennigan, Kathy Kolnick, Tian Sivan Tian, Cheryl Maxson, and John Poplawski.

    “The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Lindsay Ahlman, and Daniel Kent.

    “An Evaluation of Day Reporting Centers of Parolees: Outcomes of a Randomized Trial” by Douglas J. Boyle, Laura M Ragusa-Salerno, Jennifer L. Lanterman, and Andrea Fleisch Marcus.

    “An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Intensive Supervision on the Recidivism of High-Risk Probationers” by Jordan M. Hyatt and Geoffrey C. Barnes.

    “Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii’s HOPE” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman.

    “Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman.

    “Alternative Models of Instant Drug Testing: Evidence from an Experimental Trial” by Eric Grommon, Stephen M. Cox, William S. Davidson II, and Timothy S. Bynum.

    “HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii’s HOPE Evaluation” by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial.

    “Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?” by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller.

    “Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial” by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael.

    “Efficient Sentencing? The Effect of Post-Release Supervision on Low-Level Offenders” by Ryan Sakoda. [Unpublished manuscript]

  • David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. This episode was first posted in February 2022.

    “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.

    “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.

    Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.

    “Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.

    “Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah.

    Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss.

    “The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.

    “Stress on the Sidewalk: The Mental Health Costs of Close Proximity Crime” by Panka Bencsik.

    “Policing Substance Use: Chicago's Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.

    “Crisis Averted? The Effects of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Temple. (Draft available from the authors).

  • J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. This episode was first posted in January 2020.

    "Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg.

    The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism by Geneva Adkins, David Huff, and Paul Stageberg.

    Sex Offender Registries: Fear without Function? by Amanda Y. Agan.

    Sex Offender Law and the Geography of Victimization by J. J. Prescott and Amanda Y. Agan.

    Time-Series Analyses of the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law Implementation and Subsequent Modifications on Rates of Sexual Offenses by Jeff A. Bouffard and LaQuana N. Askew.

    The Effect of Sex Offender Registries on Recidivism: Evidence from a Natural Experiment by Jillian B. Carr.

    The Impact of Megan’s Law on Sex Offender Recidivism: The Minnesota Experience by

    Grant Duwe and William Donnay.

    The Public Safety Impact of Community Notification Laws: Rearrest of Convicted Sex Offenders by Naomi J. Freeman.

    Juvenile Registration and Notification Policy Effects: A Multistate Evaluation Project by Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Jeffery Sandler, Donna Vandiver, Ryan Shields, and Reshmi Nair.

    Failure to Register as a Sex Offender: Is it Associated with Recidivism? Jill Levenson, Elizabeth Letourneau, Kevin Armstrong, and Kristen Marie Zgoba.

    Failure-to-Register Laws and Public Safety: An Examination of Risk Factors and Sex Offense Recidivism by Jill Levenson, Jeffrey Sandler, and Naomi Freeman.

    Community Protection Policies and Repeat Sexual Offenses in Florida by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba.

    Utilizing Criminal History Information to Explore the Effect of Community Notification on Sex Offender Recidivism by Sean Maddan, J. Mitchell Miller, Jeffery T. Walker, and Ineke Haen Marshall.

    A Time-Series Analysis of the Effectiveness of Sex Offender Notification Laws in the USA by Kimberly Maurelli and George Ronan.

    Does a Watched Pot Boil? A Time-Series Analysis of New York State's Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Naomi J. Freeman, and Kelly M. Socia.

    Juvenile Sexual Crime Reporting Rates are not Influenced by Juvenile Sex Offender Registration Policies by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Donna Vandiver, Ryan T. Shields, and Mark Chaffin.

    Community Notification: A Study of Offender Characteristics and Recidivism by Donna D. Schram and Cheryl Darling Milloy.

    “Brothers Under the Bridge”: Factors Influencing the Transience of Registered Sex Offenders in Florida by Kelly M. Socia, Jill S. Levenson, Alissa R. Ackerman, and Andrew J. Harris.

    Assessing the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Community Notification on Sex-Offending Trajectories by Richard Tewksbury and Wesley G. Jennings.

    A Longitudinal Examination of Sex Offender Recidivism Prior to and Following the Implementation of SORN by Richard Tewksbury, Wesley G. Jennings, and Kristen M. Zgoba.

    The Influence of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws in the United States: A Time-Series Analysis by Bob E. Vasquez, Sean Maddan, and Jeffery T. Walker.

    Sex Offender Community Notification: Its Role in Recidivism and Offender Reintegration by Richard G. Zevitz.

    Failure to Register as a Predictor of Sex Offense Recidivism: The Big Bad Wolf or a Red Herring? by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba

    An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Community Notification and Registration: Do the Best Intentions Predict the Best Practices? by Kristen Zgoba , Bonita M. Veysey & Melissa Dalessandro.

  • Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. This episode was first posted in September 2020.

    "Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    "Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter.

    "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren.

    "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren.

    "Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migration and Racial Wage Convergence in the North, 1940–1970" by Leah Platt Boustan.

    "Was Postwar Suburbanization 'White Flight'? Evidence from the Black Migration" by Leah Platt Boustan.

    "Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migrants in Northern Cities and Labor Markets" by Leah Platt Boustan.

    "Migration Networks and Location Decisions: Evidence from US Mass Migration" by Bryan A. Stuart and Evan J. Taylor.

    "The Warmth of Other Suns: The Epic Story of America’s Great Migration" by Isabel Wilkerson.

    "Creating Moves to Opportunity: Experimental Evidence on Barriers to Neighborhood Choice" by Peter Bergman, Raj Chetty, Stefanie DeLuca, Nathaniel Hendren, Lawrence F. Katz, and Christopher Palmer.

    "Children of the Dream: Why School Integration Works" by Rucker C. Johnson.

    "The Long-run Economic Effects of School Desegregation" by Cody Tuttle.

  • Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. This episode was first posted in November 2021.

    “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western.

    “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

    ”Youth depression and future criminal behavior” by D. Mark Anderson, Resul Cesur, and Erdal Tekin.

    “Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.

    ”The FDA and ABCs Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital” by Susan Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara.

    ”Consequences of Eliminating Federal Disability Benefits for Substance Abusers” by Pinka Chatterji and EllenMeara.

    ”Long-Term Consequences of Childhood ADHD on Criminal Activities” by Jason Fletcher and Barbara Wolfe.

    “A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends” by Dave E. Marcotte,Sara Markowitz.

    ”Psychiatric Disorders in Youth in Juvenile Detention” by Linda A. Teplin, Karen M. Abram, Gary M. McClelland, Mina K. Dulcan, and Amy A. Mericle.

    ”Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler.

    ”The effect of medicaid expansion on crime reduction: Evidence from hifa-waiver expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings.

    ”The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Giray Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.

    ”The effect of health insurance on crime: Evidence from the affordable care act medicaid expansion” by Qiwei He and Scott Barkowski.

    “Local access to mental healthcare and crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha T. Solomon.

    “The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.

    “The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist.

    Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist.

  • Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. This episode was first posted in March 2021.

    “Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette.

    ***

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment” by Mark A.R. Kleiman.

    "The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment" by John M. MacDonald, Andrew R. Morral, Barbara Raymond, and Christine Eibner.

    ”Punishment and deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen.

    “Efficacy of Frequent Monitoring with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions for Violations: Insights from South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Project” by Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, Paul Heaton, and Greg Midgette.

    "Can a criminal justice alcohol abstention programme with swift, certain, and modest sanctions (24/7 Sobriety) reduce population mortality? A retrospective observational study" by Nancy Nicosia, Beau Kilmer, and Paul Heaton.

    “Paying the Tab: The Costs and Benefits of Alcohol Control” by Philip J. Cook.

    "Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii's HOPE." by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.

    "Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report" by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.

    "HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii`s HOPE Evaluation" by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial.

    "Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?" by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller.

    “Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial" by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael.

    ”A Natural Experiment to Test the Effect of Sanction Certainty and Celerity on Substance-Impaired Driving: North Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program” by Greg Midgette, Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, and Paul Heaton.

  • Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021.

    "More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    "Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel.

    "Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch.

    "A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

  • Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019.

    ***

    Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

    ***

    RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    "Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak.

    "Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson

    "Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.

    "The Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.

    "The Effect of Changing Employers' Access to Criminal Histories on Ex-Offenders' Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Massachusetts CORI Reform" by Osborne Jackson and Bo Zhao

    "Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example" by Evan K. Rose

    "Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Sector Employment" by Terry-Ann Craigie

    "'Ban the Box' Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods" by Daniel Shoag and Stan Veuger

    "Do Ban the Box Laws Increase Crime?" by Joseph J. Sabia, Taylor Mackay, Thanh Tam Nguyen, and Dhaval M. Dave

    "Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing" by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung

    "Statistical Discrimination and the Choice of Licensing: Evidence from Ban-the-Box Laws" by Riccardo Marchingiglio

    "The Effectiveness of Certificates of Relief as Collateral Consequence Relief Mechanisms: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tia Stevens Andersen

    "Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.

    "Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer L. Doleac

  • Allison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability.

    “Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro.

    ***

    Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

    ***

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “Collective Bargaining Rights and Police Misconduct: Evidence from Florida” by Dhammika Dharmapala, Richard H. McAdams, and John Rappaport.

    “Preventing the Use of Deadly Force: The Relationship Between Police Agency Policies and Rates of Officer-Involved Gun Deaths” by Jay T. Jennings and Meghan E. Rubado.

    “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.

    “Prosecutorial Reforms and Local Crime Rates” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.

    “Too Tough on Crime? The Impact of Prosecutor Politics on Incarceration” by Ashna Arora.

    “The Effect of DA Elections on Public Safety” by Dvir Yogev. [Working Paper available from the author].

    “Does Prosecutor Partisanship Exacerbate the Racial Charging Gap? Evidence from District Attorneys in Three States” by Sidak Yntiso.

  • Andreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia.

    “Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence - Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsada and Espen Villanger.

    ***

    Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

    ***

    OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

    “The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.

    “Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence” by Dan Anderberg, Helmut Rainer, Jonathan Wadsworth, and Tanya Wilson.

    “Women’s Access to the Labour Market and Domestic Violence: Causal Evidence from Mexico” by Manuel Davila.

    “Family Types and Intimate Partner Violence: A Historical Perspective” by Ana Tur-Prats.

    Episode 17 of Probable Causation: Ana Tur-Prats.

    “A Mixed-Method Review of Cash Transfers and Intimate Partner Violence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries” by Ana Maria Buller, Amber Peterman, Meghan Ranganathan, Alexandra Bleile, Melissa Hidrobo, and Lori Heise.

    “Theoretical Underpinnings and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Cash Transfers on Intimate Partner Violence in Low-and Middle-Income Countries” by Victoria Baranov, Lisa Cameron, Diana Contreras Suarez, and Claire Thibout.

    “The Impacts of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Work on Income and Health: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia” by Christopher Blattman and Stefan Dercon.

    “Statistical Analysis of List Experiments” by Graeme Blair and Kosuke Imai.

    “The Comparative Impact of Cash Transfer and Psychotherapy on Psychological and Economic Well-being” by Johannes Haushofer, Robert Mudida, and Jeremy Shapiro.

    “Backlash: Female Economic Empowerment and Domestic Violence” by Sanna Bergvall.

    “Paid Work for Women and Domestic Violence: Evidence from the Rwanda Coffee Mills” by Deniz Sanin.

    “The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.

    “Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. [Draft available from the authors upon request].

    Episode 85 of Probable Causation: Sofia Amaral.

    “Cultural Distance and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence” by Eleonora Guarnieri and Ana Tur-Prats.

    “Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.

    Episode 87 of Probable Causation: Emily Nix