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Many observers considered the 43rd annual CCAMLR meeting in Hobart a major disappointment due to the failure to renew important protections on krill fisheries and the continued lack of progress on marine protected areas in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. Some are even concerned that the breakdown in consensus, centered on China and Russia refusing to extend existing or institute new protection measures, foreshadows greater geopolitical problems infecting Antarctic governance. To analyze the complexities of CCAMLR and what the meeting might portend for the future of the Antarctic Treaty System, Dr. Tony Press from the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania joins the podcast, sharing insights from decades of direct involvement with the science and geopolitics of Antarctica as Australia’s former CCAMLR commissioner and chairman (2002-2006) of the Antarctic Treaty’s Committee for Environmental Protection.
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How does China exert influence in the Arctic, and has it already peaked? A new in-depth report published by the Wilson Center analyzes Chinese information and influence operations in each of the eight Arctic Council member states. The report’s co-author Adam Lajeunesse, associate professor at St. Francis Xavier University, joins the podcast to explain China’s multifaceted influence strategy in the Arctic and how it has gone about “selling” itself as a “near-Arctic state”—and whether Western observers have been too eager to buy in to this narrative and the ostensible threat China poses to the Arctic order. Dr. Lajeunesse also discusses the China-Russia relationship, China’s wolf warrior diplomacy, and how China has in recent years attempted to recalibrate its messaging and activities in the Arctic.
Selling the “Near Arctic State”: China’s Information and Influence Operations in the Arctic (Wilson Center 2024) by Adam Lajeunesse and P. Whitney Lackenbauer: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/selling-near-arctic-state
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From geopolitical posturing surrounding the status of Belarus and Canada inside the Antarctic Treaty, to diverging views on science, environmental protection and the regulation of tourism, the 46thAntarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting in Kochi, India provided, in an era of great power competition and new constellations within the international system, a snapshot on the current state of affairs in the governance of Antarctica. Dr. Kati Lindström, a researcher at KTH in Stockholm and Estonia’s point of contact to the Antarctic Treaty who participated in ATCM 46 in India this past May, joins the podcast to analyze the outcomes and geopolitical implications of the latest annual meeting of the consultative parties to the Antarctic Treaty. An historian by training, Dr. Lindström also explains the geopolitical significance of cultural heritage remains in Antarctica for certain states, particularly those with historical claims in the continent.
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The eight member states of the Arctic Council each draw upon geography, history and other factors to promote their identity as an Arctic nation, while non-Arctic states seeking influence in the region use different—although sometimes similar—arguments to foster an image of being an Arctic stakeholder or, as in one prominent example, a “near-Arctic state”. The author of the forthcoming book Arctic State Identity – Geography, History and Geopolitical Relations (Manchester U.P. 2025), Dr. Ingrid Medby of Newcastle University, joins the podcast to discuss the processes, geopolitics and inclusion/exclusion dynamics of Arctic state identity construction.
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Although a unique set of circumstances characterize Svalbard, belonging to Norway under a 1920 treaty, the situation there reflects many of the major trends—and faultlines—in Arctic geopolitics. From science diplomacy and security to geoeconomics and great power competition, the High Arctic archipelago, where both Norway and Russia maintain permanent settlements and an array of non-Arctic states are active through long-term research programs, provides a useful lens for analyzing some of the key issues at stake in the contemporary Arctic. Dr. Andreas Østhagen, Senior Researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, joins the podcast for a comprehensive discussion that encompasses the new Norwegian white paper on Svalbard, the interest of China and India and other countries present there, the relevant international legal regimes and Russian hybrid activities in and around the archipelago. For those wanting to learn more about Svalbard, this 90-minute episode, centered on Østhagen’s extensive research and expertise, serves as a crash course on one of the most complex and fascinating areas of Arctic geopolitics.
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Science and expert knowledge are pivotal for meeting many of the environmental challenges, economic opportunities and geopolitical imperatives of the contemporary Arctic. The Arctic Frontiers conference reflects this fact through its selection of seven scientific themes that serve as pillars for the annual event held every January in Tromsø, Norway. Not only natural science, the needed expertise ranges from politics and geopolitics, green technologies, indigenous knowledge, history and socials science, geoeconomics, community resilience and climate adaptation. Dr. Jenny Turton, Senior Advisor in charge of developing the science program for Arctic Frontiers, joins the podcast to present the scientific themes for the Conference in 2025, and provide an overview of some of the most pressing issues currently facing the Arctic that have informed the selection process.
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Reports of Russia’s discovery of huge oil reserves in Antarctic waters has caused concern in some quarters over (frozen) territorial claims and the future of the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, which permanently bans mining in and around the continent. Prof. Klaus Dodds, whose recent testimony for a UK parliamentary inquiry sparked a media firestorm over Russia’s activities and intentions in Antarctica, joins the podcast to discuss what he sees as classic grey zone tactics where, in this case, scientific research could possibly serve as a pretense for the pursuit of economic and geopolitical interests. Prof. Dodds also clarifies some common misconceptions over the significance of 2048 for the Antarctic Treaty, analyzes Antarctic geopolitics in the context of great power competition between China, Russia and the US, and shares ideas on how countries such as the UK—which is scheduled to release its first Antarctic strategy this autumn—can raise awareness and engage the public on increasingly important issues surrounding the polar regions.
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“Greenland is the most dynamic piece in the new Arctic security jigsaw puzzle”, according to a new book that applies the international relations theory of securitization to analyze the security and geopolitics of Greenland and the Arctic. Marc Jacobsen, Ole Wæver and Ulrik Pram Gad, co-editors and authors of Greenland in Arctic Security: (De)securitization Dynamics under Climatic Thaw and Geopolitical Freeze, join the podcast to discuss the configuration of Arctic security and explain how relations between Nuuk, Copenhagen and Washington, as well as issues such as Greenlandic national identity, independence and sovereignty, are strongly influencing the future of the region.
Marc Jacobsen is an Assistant Professor at the Royal Danish Defence College; Ole Wæver is a Professor at the University of Copenhagen; and Ulrik Pram Gad is a Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies. Greenland in Arctic Security is available from the University of Michigan Press: https://press.umich.edu/Books/G/Greenland-in-Arctic-Security2
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In this episode of the Polar Geopolitics podcast, recorded live at the 2024 Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø, Norway, host Eric Paglia interviews Andreas Østhagen of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute and Kelsey Frazier from the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies. The discussion ranges from global trends affecting the geopolitical position of the Arctic and local security issues specific to Alaska and the Barents Sea region, to the real and anticipated effects of climate change, the challenge of changing sea ice conditions and other maritime issues such as domain awareness, seabed claims and seabed mining, and the pressing need for investments in assets like port infrastructure and polar security cutters.
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To analyze the transformed security environment in Northern Europe since the NATO accession of Sweden and Finland, this episode features an interview with Minna Ålander, research fellow at the Finish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki. The in-depth discussion, at time when the Nordic countries have been engaged with their NATO partners in the major Nordic Response 2024 military exercise, covers the interconnections between the Arctic and Baltic regions from a security standpoint, Nordic and US defense cooperation, the integration of Finland and Sweden into the NATO command structure, Finnish relations with China, and the hybrid warfare tactics that have been employed in the Baltic Sea and Finland’s border with Russia.
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Dr. Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, joins the podcast to discuss Antarctica and the short- and long-term impacts of climate change and the emerging green transition on the geopolitics of the polar regions. Dr. Bremmer, who recently returned from a trip to Antarctica, also explains how the six-decade success story of the Antarctic Treaty System could provide a precedent for the global governance of outer space in the years ahead.
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Anu Fredrikson, Executive Director of Arctic Frontiers and former director of the Arctic Economic Council, joins the podcast to discuss sustainable development, economic opportunities and the Green Transition that is taking place in the Arctic alongside structural changes in the regional security environment. With the annual Arctic Frontiers conference coming up in the end of January, Anu Fredrikson also takes up some of the Big Picture themes that will animate discussions in Tromsø, such as Global Actions/Arctic Reactions, Arctic Security-Local Resilience, Navigating Arctic Realities, and Rethinking Arctic Development.
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The deployment of subsea data cables across different marine areas of the circumpolar North has become a significant development in discussions of Arctic geopolitics. Meanwhile security concerns over subsea infrastructure have become heightened by recent incidents involving the disruption and destruction of energy pipelines and telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea. Nima Khorrami, a research associate at the Arctic Institute, joins the podcast to explain why data cables are crucial for the economic development of the Arctic, and how the expansion of subsea infrastructure entails the need for an enhanced security presence in the region, perhaps on the part of NATO. The episode also includes a discussion on the recent announcement that Dubai-based DP World will partner with Russia in developing the Northern Sea Route, and whether this signals a new interest in the Arctic among middle eastern countries such as the United Arab Emirates.
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The security situation in the Arctic has changed significantly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although the military buildup in the region began well before 2022. Katarzyna Zysk, professor of International Relations and Contemporary History at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, joins the podcast to discuss Russia’s military posture in the Arctic, the effects of NATO enlargement, and the overall geopolitical situation in the region, including the role of China and Russia’s efforts to reach out to other non-Arctic states. Prof. Zysk also explains how various technologies, such as drones and artificial intelligence, will shape the Arctic security environment in the years ahead.
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The recently destroyed Kakhovka Dam and the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station are inextricably linked legacies of Soviet energy infrastructure that have become major concerns in the midst of the war in Ukraine. Achim Klüppelberg from the Nuclear Waters project at KTH Royal Institute of Technology is an expert on nuclear energy in Ukraine and Russia, and he joins the podcast to provide an in-depth analysis of the dire situation in the lower-Dnieper region. He also explains the enduring risks and complexities surrounding nuclear energy and infrastructure in the post-Soviet space, including Chernobyl, and discusses an array of nuclear issues related to the Russian Arctic.
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The United States is an Arctic country on account of Alaska, which has for almost 50 years been a major domestic source of oil and natural gas, facilitated by the extensive Trans-Alaska Pipeline System. Alaska has thus been critical for US energy security, as well as national defense due to its close proximity to Russia. However, despite popular perceptions and controversial projects such as Willow, the dominance of the oil industry in Alaska has declined in recent years. Dr. Philip Wight, assistant professor at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks and an expert on Alaska’s energy infrastructure, joins the podcast to discuss an array of issues related to Alaska and the Arctic, including the changing role of oil in the state’s political economy, environmental concerns connected to the extraction of energy and mineral resources, the importance of the massive military presence in the state, and the enduring tensions between Alaska and the US federal government. He also provides a comparison between Alaska and other sub-regions in the circumpolar North.
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Arctic megaconferences like the annual Arctic Frontiers in Tromsø and the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik have become critical meeting places that literally provide a world stage for the performance of Arctic governance and geopolitics. They have further served a particularly important purpose in the absence of official gatherings during the Arctic Council pause of the past year. Yet how much of what takes place, in public and private, actually influences developments and decision making in the Arctic? Do elaborate PR and public diplomacy activities that characterize conferences affect perceptions of Arctic stakeholders, and are certain voices privileged over others in such contexts? Beate Steinveg, associate professor at Nord University in Norway, has for many years conducted in-depth research on Arctic conferences. She joins the podcast to share her insights into the multifaceted importance of such events in shaping the governance of the region.
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Despite the Covid crisis and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources took certain steps forward on the management of key Southern Ocean fisheries during the recent Swedish CCAMLR chairmanship, which concluded in November at the organization’s annual meeting in Hobart. The creation of new Marine Protected Areas and other environmental protection measures have, however, continued to be blocked by some member states. Dr. Jakob Granit, Director General Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, joins the podcast to share his experiences and insights from two years as CCAMLR chair on managing the Antarctic marine environment, engaging with Russia inside the Antarctic Treaty System, and navigating the increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics of Antarctic governance.
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Although the Arctic Council has remained on pause since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, multilateral interactions and diplomatic activity among senior Arctic officials (excluding representatives of Russia) has by no means come to a complete stop. Meanwhile, some stakeholders, particularly the Permanent Participant indigenous peoples’ organizations in the Arctic Council, see the current pause, even if well justified, as a relative loss of influence over Arctic governance. Finland’s SAO and Ambassador for Arctic Affairs Petteri Vuorimäki joins the podcast to provide insight into the current situation surrounding the Arctic Council, and to discuss Finland’s Arctic agenda as well as Arctic-Baltic security following Finland and Sweden’s NATO applications.
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With energy and strategic raw materials increasingly at the center of geopolitics, the European Union’s first Arctic ambassador argues that Europe should look to certain areas of the Arctic in implementing its Green New Deal and transition towards renewables. Ambassador Marie-Anne Coninsx, senior associate fellow at the Egmont Institute in Brussels, joins the podcast to discuss a new Egmont report she co-authored with Karen van Loon, “Europe’s Energy and Resource Challenge: The Arctic is Part of the Solution”. She also makes the case for Belgium’s Arctic stakeholder status, while elaborating the country’s long-term engagement in the region.
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