Avsnitt
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For the most part, Americans haven't felt much pain yet from the tariffs that Donald Trump introduced (and then partially walked back) on April 2. The damage is highly visible in financial markets, but for the moment, shelves remain stocked, inflation measures have remained muted, and there hasn't been a significant wave of layoffs in official data. But according to our guest, real pain is coming. And what's going down is worse than a trade war. On this episode, we speak with the one and only David Woo, now the founder of David Woo Unbound. He also previously served as the Head of Global Rates, Foreign Exchange, and EM Fixed Income and Economics Research at Bank of America. He says that the administration has absolutely nothing to show for its initial months in office on any front. And he says this isn't a game of chicken, where one side can blink and avoid disaster. Instead, we're seeing a "war of attrition" where damage is being done to both the US and Chinese economies as we speak. As he sees it, the China hawks in the administration have been in control, and have the impulse to obliterate the Chinese economy, which makes the situation more than just a so-called trade war. He discusses the political, market, and real economy implications of this dramatic escalation.
Read more:
Trump U-Turns on Powell, China Follow Dire Economic Warnings
A Bad Peace in Ukraine Carries Global RisksOnly Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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When it comes to measuring economic pain, the cost of a humble breakfast sandwich might not be top of mind. But Bloomberg has an index that tracks the rising cost of a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich, plus a cup of coffee. And this year, it’s reached record highs.On today’s Big Take podcast, we hear from people up and down the BEC supply chain — from a wheat farmer to a coffee roaster to a guy who turned his life-long love of eggs into a career. What does the most important meal of the day tell us about inflation, supply and demand, and the complexities of financial markets? More importantly: how did this sandwich get so expensive?
Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Big Take podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcasts
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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One of the stated goals for the current trade war is to build more industrial capacity in the United States. So far there doesn't seem to be much of it happening. In fact, all of the manufacturing surveys (and all evidence) so far suggests the reverse. But not that long ago there was a concerted effort to build more factories in the United States. Under President Biden there was a whole host of new industrial announcements funded in part via the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. But did we get anything from these bills? Do we have anything to show for it? Why is building more capacity in the United States so difficult? On this episode, we spoke with Hassan Khan, who recently left his position as the director of economic security in the CHIPS Program Office at the Department of Commerce, about what he learned, what he saw, what could be done differently, and what the results are actually were.
Read more:
With US Chips Act Money Mostly Divvied Up, the Real Test Begins
TSMC’s Arizona Chip Production Yields Surpass Taiwan’s
US Chip Grants in Limbo as Lutnick Pushes Bigger InvestmentsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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Martin Wolf has been called one of the world's most important economics commentators, and has for decades written in columns and his own books about the evolution of the global economy, chronicling the rise of globalization and the subsequent pushback to liberal trade. And he's had a lot to write about in recent weeks. President Trump's unveiling of sweeping tariffs against pretty much every single US trading partner has not only roiled global markets, but is shaking up international politics as well. Countries around the world are now struggling to understand exactly what the Trump administration is trying to achieve, how far it will go in terms of its political and economic isolationism, and how they should we respond. On this episode we speak with Wolf, the chief economics commentator for the Financial Times, about what Trump's reordering of global trade means for the world, how Europe and China might respond, and the origins of the US administration's economic discontent.
Read More:
Trump’s Tariffs and China Collide to Shock the $115 Trillion Global Economy
What’s Left of Globalization Without the US?Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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Here's Why is Bloomberg’s short explainer podcast, where we take one big news story and break it down in just a few minutes—with help from our experts across the newsroom.
We're dropping into your feed with a special episode featuring Joe Weisenthal, co-host of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, who joined us while in London.
In this episode: The near-daily shifts in U.S. trade policy have rattled markets and made both businesses and consumers uneasy about spending. What kind of damage does all this uncertainty cause to the economy? And is it something we’ll eventually get used to? Joe joins Stephen Carroll to break it all down.
Like what you hear? Subscribe to the Here’s Why podcast for more quick, expert-driven explainers available via the links below every Friday.
Apple Podcasts Spotify TuneIn iHeart RSS feedSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Last year, it was announced that the US Department of Defense had failed an audit for its seventh straight year, indicating an ongoing inability to track its hundreds of billions of dollars in spending and inventories. Why does this keep happening? Why does the Pentagon get audited in the first place? And what can be done to fix it? On this episode, we speak with Julia Gledhill, a research analyst at the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center. She explains how the budgetary process works, as well as the prospects for the Pentagon ever actually passing an audit.
Read more:
Pentagon Still Falls Short on Jump-Starting Innovation, Audit Says
Billionaire Feinberg Says Pentagon Needs an Investor’s SavvyOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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US Treasuries are the most important market in the world. With some $29 trillion outstanding, they create the benchmark that informs basically every other type of borrowing. Any changes to how the bond market works would be a massive deal. But lately, there's been a lot of chatter about how the Trump administration could radically restructure and refinance the US debt under the so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord." In this episode, we speak with University of Virginia law professor Mitu Gulati about how far the administration could go to legally reform this huge and important market. We also talk about how to buy Greenland and whether Trump could make a few billion by collecting on some old loans from allies.
Read more:
One Way for Trump to Find a Few Extra Trillion Dollars
The Stories We Tell Ourselves About BondsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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For years and years now, there has been one winning trade: Go long the US versus the rest of the world. Thanks to tech dynamism and general pro-growth US macro policies, American assets have far outstripped their global peers. Of course, there have been some bumps along the way, but they've usually been global bumps. The financial crisis in 2008-2009 was global. Covid was a shock for the entire world. But with Trump's tariffs, we are now looking at a story that has the potential to be US-specific, even if a trade war will be felt internationally. And so investors are asking the question of whether US exceptionalism has come to an end, and there may be better opportunities elsewhere. On this episode we speak with Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank. He tells us what his clients are thinking about and the various scenarios whereby US assets continue to underperform. We also discuss the implications of the US becoming more EM-like in its politics, and its financial markets.
Read More: End of 'America First' Trade Is Boosting Europe's Markets
The World Is Finding a Plausible Alternative to Treasuries
Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Every time there is tension between the US and China, there are stories about China threatening to withhold exports of rare earth metals, which are supposedly crucial for all kinds of advanced technologies. In this episode, recorded in Bloomberg's London studio, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas helps us clear up some misconceptions about them. For one thing, rare earths aren't actually that rare. Furthermore, the amount of global trade of these minerals is fairly minuscule. The US only imports $170 million worth in a year. And then beyond that, the most common usage of them is in vacuum cleaners. Still, their economics are interesting and they do have some important applications. In addition, we talk about what the trade war means for the domestic US energy agenda, and the Trump administration's desire to expand total output.
Read more:
Chinese Rare Earth Shipments Held Up as Trade War Upends Exports
Javier Blas: $50-a-Barrel Oil Is a Problem for US Trade DeficitOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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One of the ironies of the tariffs is that, while ostensibly the goal is to reshore US manufacturing, it's actually been US makers of physical goods themselves that have warned about the damage that trade barriers can cause. Or, to put it another way, if we really want to see more domestic US production in order to decouple from China, then perhaps there are other levers to pull besides the tariffs. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Sam D'Amico, the founder and CEO of California-based Impulse Labs, which makes an amazing induction oven. We talk about what the tariffs mean for his business, and the various things, including capital markets and NIMBYism, that really stand as impediments to building out mass US production of goods.
Read more:
The High-Tech Stove That’s Also a Home Battery
Everything You Need to Know About the Basis Trade Spooking MarketsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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Check out the new Stock Movers Podcast from Bloomberg.
Subscribe for five-minute episodes on today's winners and losers in the stock market. Listen on Apple: https://apple.co/4kJ43ON Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/mr385jv6 Listen on other platforms: https://link.podtrac.com/h0zn7xirSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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In a big bull market, people will overlook a lot. They'll suspend their disbelief. They'll buy into fantastical, unrealistic stories about the future. But when the momentum turns sharply the other way, all of this reverses. Then, as the cliché goes, you see who's been "swimming naked." So what have we learned from the recent market volatility? On this episode, we speak with legendary short-seller Jim Chanos, now the founder of Chanos & Co. We talk about cloud stocks and datacenters, AI, private equity, the Trump tariffs, and the strong evidence that Elon Musk isn't serious about tackling spending.
Read more: Everything You Need to Know About the Basis Trade Spooking Markets
Jim Chanos Says Biggest Risk for Markets Is DeepSeek-Like Event
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On Wednesday, President Trump put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for every country except China. The market, which had been in a state of deep panic, surged massively on the announcement. But then on Thursday, stocks sold off hard again as people woke up to the reality of massive tariffs on China and the new baseline tariffs on everyone else. Plus, even before all this tariff drama, there were plenty of reasons to be anxious about the US economy. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research. He explains all the moving parts and why he's sticking with his call for a downturn this year.
Mentioned on the show:
Neil Dutta Sees Rising Risks to the Labor Market
Everything You Need to Know About the Basis Trade Spooking MarketsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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On Wednesday, Trump pulled back from the brink on most of the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2. The market surged. But we're still in an extraordinarily challenging moment. We have new across-the-board tariffs. We have gigantic tariffs on China. And there's a possibility that a recession has already begun. So what does the Fed do in this environment, with so much persistent uncertainty? On this episode, we speak with Rob Kaplan, former President of the Dallas Fed, and now the Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs. We talk about the extreme uncertainty, the unusual behavior in the market, and what this all means for the energy sector.
Read more:
Fed Officials Worried Over Stagflation Risk Ahead of Tariffs
Wall Street Chatter Grows That Fed May Act If Bond Rout WorsensOnly http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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How should we make sense of the Trump tariffs? They've been terrible for the stock market, obviously. Small businesses seem to hate them. Energy companies aren't fans either. US manufacturers are talking about how the tariffs will make manufacturing harder. And yet we have them. So who stands to benefit? What's the point? And how should we understand this moment in American history? On this episode we speak with one of our favorite guests, Viktor Shvets, the head of global desk strategy at Macquarie Capital. Shvets has been warning for a long time about how US history is at a pivot point, with the neoliberal consensus coming to an end. He talks about Trump's revolutionary efforts to remake American society, the attendant shredding of norms, and what it all means for the globally-held view of American exceptionalism.
Read More: Viktor Shvets on Why This Time Really Is Different
Things Are Getting Pretty Weird in MarketsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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Amidst Trump's dramatic tariff moves, trade in North America remains uncertain. The USMCA hasn't been completely ripped up, but the region is anxiously anticipating a new trade regime. As such, shippers and carriers dealing with North American freight are in a state of limbo, waiting to see how it all shakes out. In this episode, we speak with experienced freight broker Matt Silver, now the CEO of Cargado, a company that sells logistics software to businesses dealing with US-Mexico trade. We talk about the strategies being used right now, what's changing, what truckers are doing, and how all players may adapt to the new reality.
Read more:
Canada and Mexico, Early Trump Targets, Dodge the Worst of New Tariff Salvo
The Freight Recession Isn't Going Anywhere NowOnly Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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It was just last Wednesday that President Trump announced his new tariff schedule with the rest of the world. And it's already having an effect. Companies are scrambling to get goods on planes or boats to beat the first deadline. Companies are already trying to get out of existing contracts. And some previously planned factory endeavors have even been put on hold. On this episode, we speak with Ryan Petersen, the founder and CEO of Flexport, to talk about what he's already seeing from the perspective of his business. We also talk about how tariffs are operationally implemented, and how things might change if the existing tariffs remain in place.
Read More:
Tariffs Are Dragging Down Even Companies Without US Exports
Jeep Maker Stellantis Offers to Help Suppliers Pay Tariff Costs
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Anything crypto-related is frequently greeted with a high degree of skepticism. Within that, one of the most controversial companies for a long time has been Tether, the company behind the popular stablecoin USDT. But despite people predicting otherwise, the company has boomed. It's insanely profitable. It's one of the largest holders of US Treasuries in the world. And because of the change in the US administration, it's gathering fans in Washington, DC. In this episode, we speak with Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino about what it's like to run this business, how they work with law enforcement, future growth opportunities, and why, after all these years, it's still never had a formal audit.
Read more:
What Are Stablecoins and Why Are Regulators Wary?
Tether To Buy a 30% Stake in Italian Media Company Be WaterOnly Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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He needs no introduction: When trade is in the news, we speak with Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations. Brad has been talking for awhile about the major imbalances of world trade, and the US-China relationship in particular. However, rather than building up a large trading bloc with our allies to counter Chinese influence, the Trump administration has chosen a path of going it alone, targeting friend and foe alike with large and wide-ranging tariffs. In this episode, we talk about the significance of the move, the potential damage, and what, if any, positive scenarios could result.
Read More:
Global Recession Fears Engulf Wall Street on Tariff Retaliation
Matt Levine: The Tariffs Have Some MathOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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On Wednesday, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs against almost every country in the world. The size and scope was far beyond what anyone was anticipating, causing markets to subsequently plunge. But what's next? Could it work out for the US? Will we see a spike in inflation? Will the global trading system continue to operate? On this episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, the chief economist for Bloomberg Economics, on the historical nature of this stagflationary shock, and what happens to the US and global economies if these numbers remain in place.
Read More:
Economists Slash US Growth, Boost Inflation Forecasts on Tariffs
Germany and France Push for More Aggressive Tariff ResponseOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
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