Avsnitt
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The global trade war intensifies as the Trump Tariffs come into effect. Equities continue to decline for the fourth consecutive day, threatening to push the S&P 500 into bear market territory, as investors seek safe havens. Meanwhile, Treasuries, once considered the world's ultimate safe haven, remain under pressure as investors appear to be losing confidence in the US. To gain more insight into the bond market's reaction, we spoke with Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the implications for investors' positioning in more detail.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
05:49 Bond market latest: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)
10:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Global markets experienced significant volatility yesterday due to ongoing trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump - the VIX index surged to 60 at one point. The S&P 500 closed just 0.2% lower despite threats of additional tariffs. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley stated that a decline in stocks alone won't prompt the Fed to intervene, but an impairment to the flow of credit to businesses would. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rebounded slightly today after a historic 13.2% collapse on Monday, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied 6% on positive trade news, with the US and Japan potentially negotiating a trade deal. European equity futures are up over 2% in response to the news. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, notes that the upcoming earnings season will be all about companies’ comments on the trade war.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:49 Q1 earnings season preview: Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equity Research)
08:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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As the emerging trade war takes its toll, causing global stock markets to sell off from Japan to Mexico, investor sentiment continues to deteriorate rapidly. After US stocks fell steeply on Friday, Asian equities have plummeted today, with tech and banking stocks leading the decline in response to the retaliatory tariffs announced by China. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his reaction to the escalating tariff war with a focus on China.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:17 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
09:04 Reaction to tariff announcements in Asia: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)
19:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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The fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff war spread across global markets on Thursday, knocking down stocks and sparking a flight to fixed-income havens. US equities and the dollar saw some of the worst selling on speculation the president’s trade offensive will cripple the American economy. In today’s special episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, shares his insights on the latest developments and how investors should navigate this uncertain environment. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about why he sees more room for US dollar weakness and why he thinks gold will continue to perform well.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
06:10 Reaction to Trump tariff announcements: Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)
11:10 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Last night President Trump delivered a 99 minute speech in which he announced a baseline 10% tariff across the board. For many of the 180 countries on that board, the actual number is much higher: China now faces a rate of 54% and it has vowed to take ‘resolute counter-measures’ to safeguard its own rights and interests. Markets reacted badly to the news with only gold and US Treasury prices moving higher. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the impact on economic growth and why the biggest inflationary impact might actually be felt in the US. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, brings a timely update on AI.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:33 Liberation Day: David Kohl (Chief Economist)
11:20 AI update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
15:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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In this episode, we dive into the latest market developments as European government bonds and equities surge on contained eurozone inflation. Meanwhile, US stocks experience a volatile session ahead of the unveiling of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff plans. Joining us is Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his insights on why he thinks it's not the right time to increase risk exposure in bond markets.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:49 Bond market latest: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)
09:39 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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European markets dropped yesterday but US stocks rebounded and the S&P 500 index closed up 0.6%, although this wasn’t enough to stop the benchmark index from posting its worst month in two years. Gold hit a fresh all-time high, up 1.2%, as investors sought safety amid concerns over the Trump administration's imminent tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and growth. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on energy markets.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:22 Energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)
10:15,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
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US inflation concerns intensified, with the core PCE rising 2.8% year-on-year, fuelling fears of stagflation. Tariffs remain a significant concern, with the US poised to unveil new measures on Wednesday. The EU is bracing itself for a potential 20% tariff, and Goldman Sachs has increased the likelihood of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Asian markets are feeling the strain of tariff uncertainty, with stocks declining, the Japanese yen strengthening, and gold at an all-time high. Also in focus this week: Friday's US jobs report, which may signal a cooling labour market. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses the S&P 500, gold, and the US dollar amidst a risk-off backdrop in the markets.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
08:29 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Wednesday’s announcement of new tariffs on all non-US-made cars sent shockwaves through the markets, with stock markets worldwide feeling the ripple effects. Carmakers were among the hardest hit, while some investors sought safer havens in more stable sectors, such as consumer packaged goods, where share prices rose. In the Asia-Pacific region, markets were largely down, despite news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had met with global CEOs in Beijing and speculation that Trump may cut tariffs on Chinese goods to facilitate a TikTok deal. Against this backdrop, gold reached yet another record high overnight. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who shares his insights on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals, and offers some interesting trade ideas.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
07:05 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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A three-day period of relative calm on Wall Street came to an end as major tech and automobile companies led a decline in global equity markets yesterday. Concerns about the economic impact of ever more tariff announcements, weak consumer sentiment and rising inflation risks are dampening investor risk appetite. Nvidia and Tesla slumped nearly 6%, and the automobile sector was among yesterday’s laggards after Trump announced 25% tariffs on the sector. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the impact of tariffs on copper and why he expects the latest rally will not last.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
05:29 Copper: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
08:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Consumer sentiment in the US continues to decline, with some indices flashing warning signs of a potential recession. Despite the weakness in sentiment, hard economic data remains resilient - for now. Meanwhile, one of the main beneficiaries of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, is industrial metal copper, whose price has reached an all-time-high in New York. Join us as we discuss the latest developments with Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who predicts further volatility on the horizon, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who argues that investors should capitalise on the current US equity bounce to diversify into international markets.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:09 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)
11:24 Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
16:43 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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US equity markets jumped yesterday on hopes that President Trump may hold back from implementing some of his wide-ranging tariff plans, hinting at a narrower scope of reciprocal levies set to be announced on 2 April. In today’s Asia session, though, it’s a different story, with tech stocks on the back foot, weighing on markets. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on digital assets following the substantial outflows seen in recent weeks.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
05:51 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
09:40 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Central banks adopted a cautious tone on monetary policy, driving gold to a new high last week. The EUR suffered a 'sell the news' reaction following the announcement of Germany's spending plans. President Trump's comments on tariff flexibility provided a boost to the S&P 500 late on Friday. Looking ahead, this week promises to be eventful, with over 50 corporate results from China, and Ukraine peace talks. Investors will be closely watching Friday's US PCE inflation data. According to Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, a sustained rebound in US stocks will require broad-based buying and a shift in behaviour from retail investors - refraining from buying every dip in the market.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:28 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
08:23 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
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Equity markets remain fragile as a renewed focus on trade fears derailed a short-lived recovery in risky assets as a busy central bank week draws to a close. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the impact of the latest central bank communications on currency markets, and what he expects for gold going forward.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:23 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
05:47 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:11 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, while downgrading the growth forecast to 1.7% and increasing inflation expectations to 2.8%. Chairman Powell's comments sparked a positive market reaction, with the Treasury curve steepening and equities rising on hopes of future rate cuts. Meanwhile, Turkey's lira plummeted over 10% after the detention of Istanbul's mayor. The EU may exclude the US, the UK, and Turkey from its EUR 150bn defence spending fund if they do not sign security agreements. Today, the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that growth concerns are luring safe-haven seekers back into gold. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, says that US equities are no longer the only game in town after two years of unmatched outperformance.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:34 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:51 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
10:49 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
15:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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The German parliament voted in favour of a significant fiscal package yesterday, paving the way for increased defence spending and a substantial infrastructure fund, subject to the bill passing through the Bundesrat on Friday. This news was warmly received by investors, helping to drive a solid performance in European markets. In contrast, the US market told a different story, with all three major indices closing lower, largely due to a sell-off in some of the biggest technology stocks and growing investor nervousness ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has already made its move, leaving its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. Joining us to provide further insight into the Fed’s decision is Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research. We are also joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who shares his thoughts on the shift away from US equities.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
06:35 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)
11:44 Equity Strategy update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
16:18 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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It was a good day almost across the board for US stocks yesterday with rallies in all the major indices. The megacaps though did not fare so well and a gauge of the Magnificent 7 fell 1.1%. European markets rallied ahead of Germany’s debt brake vote which is expected to be successful in the Bundestag today. Asia joined in the rally party this morning with China tech stocks leading the charge. Japan’s markets were buoyed by Berkshire Hathaway’s investments yesterday. All this ahead of four central bank meetings this week in the US, Japan, Switzerland and the UK. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to tell us what investors should be watching for when it comes to Bitcoin’s moves.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:26 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
09:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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After gold reached a record high on Friday, breaching USD 3,000 an ounce for the first time, driven by investor anxiety over the economic impact of tariffs and trade wars, US stocks managed to claw back some of last week’s harsh losses, but still ended the week in the red. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective. Cyril Demaria-Bengochea, Head of Private Markets Strategy, provides an update on private equity and how it fares in an environment of increased volatility.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:35 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:53 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
09:24 Private equity update by Cyril Demaria-Bengochea (Head of Private Markets Strategy)
16:57,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
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US trade policy continues to weigh heavily on financial market sentiment, leading to a dismal day for US equities yesterday. The S&P 500 officially entered correction territory, joining the Nasdaq, while the Russell 2000 approached bear market territory. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down concerns, stating that he was not worried about ‘a little bit of volatility over three weeks’. Across the Atlantic,European wine and spirits companies came under pressure after Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on their products, leading to a widespread downturn across the continent. In commodities, gold hit a new high overnight. Joining us today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who provides an in-depth update on metals and currencies, including a special focus on the Australian dollar.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
06:47 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
11:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
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US equity indices rose modestly yesterday following relatively subdued inflation data. However, the rebound, that was driven primarily by the performance of the Magnificent Seven, was short-lived, while European markets continued to outpace their US counterparts. As the possibility of a US government shutdown this Saturday looms, investor sentiment remains cautious. Also on the show today is our Group Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, who offers valuable insights into the current market landscape. Additionally, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides an update on the shifting dynamics in the oil market.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:34 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
07:07 Update from our Group CIO: Yves Bonzon (Group CIO)
12:59 Commodities update: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)
17:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
- Visa fler
