Avsnitt
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Gaurav, Barbara and Kamil welcome David Muir as they discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the potential economic benefits of the three trade deals recently signed by the U.K. government. While the U.K.-U.S. deal looks quite narrow, the trade agreement with India is much broader in scope and might yield some long-term benefits. Crucially, the EU-U.K. deal isn’t a game changer—but it does represent a partial reset in economic relations and a positive step in the right direction. Unfortunately, none of the three deals will massively boost the U.K. economy, nor help avoid tax rises in the autumn.
In the second half of the episode, the team moves on to talk about the prospects for a U.S.-EU deal, and the conclusion is that it’s still difficult, even though it looks more plausible now than it did in early April. Does this mean that reciprocal tariffs take effect in July, or that the EU will have no choice but to retaliate against U.S. tariffs?
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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Hot on the heels of the U.S.-China tariff truce, the team chat about all things trade. The episode kicks off with a trip down memory lane, as Steve tries to place the current chaos in the history of economic moments-in-time. Harry then gives the lay of the land following the weekend’s negotiations, and Katrina and Stefan explore signs of rerouting in the latest export data from China.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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Gaurav and the team discuss the newly signed U.S.-U.K. trade deal and whether the de-escalation in global trade tensions will continue. The conversation then turns to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Andrew is skeptical that the recent U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal will bring a lasting ceasefire any closer, Gaurav and Barbara take stock of Europe’s energy security, while Kamil weighs in on the economic and fiscal impact of higher European defense spending.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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With the Australian election upon us, David Robertson, Chief Economist at Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, joins the team to discuss the outlook. Productivity is front of mind, having languished for the last few years amid only timid economic reforms; a clear-cut election victory could provide the political capital to change that. Elsewhere, the RBA’s priorities are shifting from taming inflation to supporting growth. With that in mind, David is confident the board will cut in May. How much more easing we get will depend on the damage President Trump’s tariffs do to the global and local economies.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for a deep dive into the UK. The conversation takes a fiscal turn very quickly as the three dissect public finances and ponder the potential for tax rises in coming years. Trump tariffs add to the problem as the UK will not be able to rely on tailwinds from the global economy. The possibility of meeting Labour’s manifesto pledge of achieving the fastest rate of growth in the G7 feels very low. David and Andrew think that income and corporate tax rises will be hard to avoid in coming years, and Gaurav immediately brings up the Beatles.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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This bonus episode is a recent webinar led by our Chief Economist, Mark Zandi. It includes many colleagues on the Moody’s Analytics economics team from around the world. The webinar reviews the many U.S. and global ramifications of the emerging U.S. tariff policy.
This conversation features expert input from leading economists, including Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, Steve Cochrane, Gaurav Ganguly, Marisa DiNatale, Dante DeAntonio, Mark Hopkins, Alfredo Coutino, and Justin Begley.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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Steve and Stefan speak one-on-one about their expectations as trade negotiations ramp up between the U.S. and many of its Asia-Pacific trading partners. So far, however, the U.S. and China are not on speaking terms; Asian financial markets have stumbled, and currencies of Asia’s developing economies have depreciated against the dollar. There is much uncertainty about the near term, but Steve and Stefan express some optimism for the long-term resilience of the APAC economies.
Click here to read more on the paper written by Katrina and Stefan
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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Against a rapidly evolving policy backdrop, Gaurav and the team attempt to unpack the implications of the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariffs on the European economy. Kamil sets out why the hit to euro zone growth from the initially announced tariffs could be bad, but not necessarily catastrophic. But regardless of the exact path of U.S. tariffs, the team agrees that the lasting impact on confidence and investment suggests recession risks have increased. The team also discuss how the EU could negotiate a deal to remove tariffs or retaliate with duties of its own, and why the EU may be wary of taking its Anti Coercion Instrument ‘bazooka’ out of the closet.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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The Moody’s Analytics team welcomed their colleague and fellow economist Sarah Tan to share their thoughts on the so-called Liberation Day tariffs only hours after they were announced. Tariffs are broader and more aggressive than anticipated, with Asia’s export-dependent economies in the firing line. Steve led with his usual optimism, but Katrina and Sarah persuaded that Beijing’s stimulus would be insufficient to insulate China from exports coming under siege.
For related research on Tariffs and the Asia-Pacific economy, click the links below
Asia-Pacific Economies Brace for More Tariffs and More TroubleNavigating Trump Turbulence
APAC Economic Outlook: Facing the Trade Winds
China Chartbook: Another Plan to Boost Consumption
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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As the European economy faces yet another turbulent period, Gaurav Ganguly hosts Andrew Hunter, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, and Kamil Kovar in a riveting discussion on the cyclical and structural issues confronting the continent and whether it can overcome these obstacles. The team delves into the recurring crises that Europe has faced, from the pandemic to the invasion of Ukraine, and how these events have dealt a blow to growth. Europe is still striving to recover, and just as signs of a rebound were emerging, policy uncertainty related to Trump's tariffs now threatens to derail the economy once again, raising recession risks. Barbara shares her insights on structural challenges, particularly focusing on Germany's economic woes and the impact of high energy costs. Andrew highlights the stark differences in growth rates across European countries, while Kamil explores labour market dynamics, the rise in savings rates, and their implications for consumer spending. The team also praises Europe’s resilience and ability to come together during a crisis to bail out the economy. Tune in to hear the team's perspectives on whether Europe can overcome the current challenges and what the future holds for the euro zone economy.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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Moody’s Analytics economists Gaurav Ganguly and Steve Cochrane welcomed their colleagues Alfredo Coutino, Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers for a review of the Latin American economy. The conversation provides a general economic overview and a more in-depth analysis of the three largest economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. They discussed the economic outlook, potential risks, the role of China in the region and the prospects and limitations of the oil sector.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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As the European Commission unveils its ReArm EU plan, Barbara Teixeira Araujo joins Andrew, Kamil, and Gaurav in trying to unpack the real implications of this big-bucks €800 billion package. The main question that remains unanswered is, “Is this really Europe’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment?” Barbara seems unconvinced, and the team raises some key questions about the feasibility of the plan, ranging from the lack of fiscal space to the rise in government yields, the risk this poses to market stability, and the potential crowding out of private investment. On a brighter note, Kamil welcomes the German government’s U-turn on fiscal policy, which he thinks represents a seismic shift for Europe. At the end, the team dwells on the probability of the euro dethroning the dollar as the global reserve currency (spoiler alert: not very high!).
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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As China's top officials gather for the annual Two Sessions in Beijing, we discuss the challenges facing China’s economy, its goals for the year and the parallels to Japan’s stagnation through the 1990s. We also take stock of the latest tariff announcements and give a crack at guessing where they’ll end this year.
To listen to the Demographics Are Not Destiny episode, click here
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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Andrew Hunter and Kamil Kovar, both Senior EMEA Economists at Moody’s Analytics, join Gaurav Ganguly as The Global Economy Unwrapped moves its focus to Europe. The team fact-check two of the U.S.’s key complaints: the EU’s trade position with the U.S. and Europe’s low defense spending. They conclude that the complaints are largely unreasonable on both fronts, but this does not mean that the EU will get off lightly. Kamil explains that the EU could easily provide the funds to support the war effort in Ukraine, while Andrew and Gaurav debate whether another crisis would be good for the EU.
Related Research: Gaurav Ganguly’s The New Realpolitik.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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We introduce our new title, Global Economy Unwrapped, where we will delve into more global topics starting with today’s episode. Hosts Steve Cochrane, Katrina Ell, and Gaurav Ganguly are joined by Moody’s Analytics Deputy Chief Economist Cris deRitis to discuss how President Trump is shaking up the status quo and bringing anxiety and uncertainty to the global economy. They explore how uncertainty is manifesting in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index gets a mention, Gaurav sneaks in an economist joke, and Cris can’t hold back his competitive nature.
To access Gaurav's piece Uncertain Times, click here
To learn more about the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, click here
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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It’s been an eventful two weeks since our last episode. We kick things off with a recap of what’s happened and a deep dive into the latest industrial production trends across the region and around the world. The conversation quickly turns to U.S. tariffs on China. Are there more to come? What can we glean from China's response? And how will tariffs shake up the manufacturing landscape?
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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Buckle up as we delve into the global car market. Joined by our auto market gurus Mike Brisson and Shannon Nicoll, the team explores the twists and turns of supply chain challenges, the accelerating rise of China as an automotive powerhouse, and the speed bumps of tariffs and trade barriers. The conversation is sure to rev your economic engines.
To read more on this topic: Australia Fourth-Quarter Used-Vehicle Price Report: A Bump in the Road
Auto Prices: Upward Momentum Continues Through Year’s End
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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The team runs through the Asia-Pacific outlook for 2025, highlighting some of the risks flying under the radar. Harry hopes that Beijing can ‘crowbar’ household wallets open as policymakers look to counter the impacts of looming tariffs. Meanwhile, Katrina is worried about the tight Aussie labor market, Steve is optimistic about the region’s prospects this year, and Stefan manages to sneak in an Austin Powers reference.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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Steve, Stefan and Harry discuss the critical role of semiconductors in Asia’s economy, driving investment in Taiwan and South Korea with some spinoffs in Southeast Asia. Decoupling and reshoring policies in the U.S., Europe, Japan and China, however, will complicate supply chains and shift investment elsewhere. Talent retention will be key to Asia’s future role in the industry. With the team spread across various global locations, so too vary their holiday plans from Australia’s beaches to a KFC Christmas dinner in Japan.
Read more about the papers that were mentioned here: Why Chipmakers Are in No Rush to Leave Asia, China Chartbook: Policy Pivot, Developed Asia Outlook 2025: Diverging Fortunes
Asia's Economy Unwrapped team would like to wish you a happy holiday. We will return with new episodes January 14th!
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
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The team welcomes their colleague Dave Chia to help us unwrap the economic implications of Korea's recent political drama. Although they seem limited at the moment, political change could be on the horizon. Thus, fiscal and foreign policy may shift with the political upheaval at home, compounding the already rising global uncertainties.
Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.
To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.
- Visa fler
