Avsnitt
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Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that he believes the potential recession that the United States economy could be facing is likely to be "a run-of-the-mill, early '90s type of recession" that stays shallow and lasts a few quarters, but he acknowledges that the signs are murky and that the longer uncertainty around trade and other policies last, the deeper and longer a likely recession becomes. Ceci says that investors should remember that the market is up way more than it is down, which means investors need to avoid panic and keep their eyes on the long-term gains rather than making changes based on incomplete information now. In The Book Interview, author Shannah Game, discusses “Unraveling Your Relationship With Money: Fix Your Money Trauma So You Can Live an Abundant Life,” which explores how the actions and attitudes people pick up over their lives — but particularly when they're young — influence a lifetime of decisions and attitudes around money. Plus, Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management — manager of the Moerus Worldwide Value fund — brings his deep-value approach to the Market Call.
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Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says that with so much investor optimism wiped away by the rough start to 2025, the opportunity for growth now looks better than it did at the start of the year. "Six months from now, I would say there's a good chance the market will be higher," Slimmon says in summing up a conversation that compares current conditions to Covid times, that discusses why looking for defensive names now is bad advice and much more. Ironically, his interview airs directly before Simon Lack of SL Advisors — publishers of the American Energy Independence Index — talks about defensive midstream energy plays in the Market Call. Plus, Jerry Avorn discusses his new book, "Rethinking Medications: Truth, Power, and the Drugs You Take," which is out today.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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Mike Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that we're living through "a period of genuine uncertainty, and a period in which forecasts that would have been made even three or four months ago no longer seem to have any real validity." He says that the current set up for a trade/tariff war is setting the economy up for a repeat of real troubles, and made comparisons as varied as the Great Depression, the Covid downturn, the Great Financial Crisis and others, and while he is optimistic that those dire scenarios can still be avoided, he also says that investors can't rule them out. Rahul Sen Sharma, president and co-chief executive officer at Indxx discusses how global markets — and indexes representing various regions and industries around the world — are performing amid the current market uncertainty. Plus, Raymond Bridges of the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF brings his "aggressively cautious" approach — which melds macroeconomic big-picture views with technical analysis and volatility factors — to the Market Call.
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Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that heightened volatility is likely here to stay as the market sorts out rapidly changing current conditions -- and says current market shocks are reminiscent in some ways of the Covid crisis or the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. He says that the current dichotomy between quantifiable potential outcomes from policies that have been announced and the non-quantifiable future and how conditions may change, making it a good time for low-volatility equity strategies. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, returns to the show with three closed-end funds that he thinks can help investors weather the market's storms, giving his "trifecta analysis" — covering data points on discounts, yields and net asset values — on why he thinks the funds are worth a close look now. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks for some safety and certainty amid the market noise, picking a classic dividend-driven fund as his ETF of the Week, and Tom McIntyre, president of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn — the original Market Call guest — returns to the show to discuss how his news-driven process is dealing with the headlines now.
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Rebecca Rockey, deputy chief economist and global head of forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield — an analyst on the outlook survey committee for the National Association for Business Economics — discusses the group's recent "flash survey" of economists which found that since tariff policies were announced on "Liberation Day," more than one-third of economists now believe the next recession is likely to start this year. Another half of the respondents have also raised their chances for a significant economic downturn. Rockey says that media forecasts for economic growth show significant downgrades since the tariff announcements, and notes that it appears this sentiment shift is the swiftest she has seen in any two-week period of time, including in times like Covid and other crises. Bob Powell, editor at Retirement Daily, talks about how seniors and pre-retirees should be considering the headlines on tariff and other government policies when it comes to spending, saving, retirement planning, Social Security, Medicare and more. Plus, Chuck answers three questions from listeners, discussing sequence-of-return versus market risk, how and why tariffs impact bond markets and his general feelings about tariffs.
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George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says "We are in the midst of a stagflationary environment that's likely to last three to six months," with the question remaining whether a recession will follow. He does now think that recession is likely, though changes to trade and monetary policy could stave it off. Bory also discusses how and why the bond market and Treasury yields are having more impact on the government's tariff policy than the wide stock market swings that have been capturing the headlines. Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at Charles Schwab, says that current levels of volatility make it so that he's not looking out long-term, focusing instead "on, maybe, where we are going to be next week," noting that the wide daily trading ranges of the market — where there are sometimes a month or quarter's worth of movement in a single day — render long-term views too muddy to be valuable. In the Market Call, Jonathan Smucker, portfolio manager at Marietta Investment Partners, says his top-down macro view suggests investors need to "buckle up" for a lengthy trade and tariff war, but then he talks about the temes and the bottoms-up fundamentals that are pointing him to invest in certain industries now.
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Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, seems to only be half joking when he says investors might want to be bullish right now just because they would be the last bull standing, but he also notes that long-term investors, in conditions like these, must bite their lip and keep buying equities. That said, he thinks some of those equities should be international, and he particularly likes Japan right now. In an extended Danger Zone segment, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, taslks about how the market's turmoil is putting an end to the momentum trades which made it harder for him and his analysts to find a catalyst that would trigger the troubles in a Danger Zone stock; he says that more Danger Zone picks are likely to realize their downside potential quickly now, and then singles out Tesla — which his firm has had in the Danger Zone for years as it kept growing to new heights — in line for a haircut of as much as 80 percent from already falling levels. In the Market Call, Bryan Lee, chief investment officer at Blue Zone Wealth Advisors, discusses "opportunistic value" and whether the current market conditions have created those opportunities yet.
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Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that investors should allow the market to settle down and they regain solid footing with their investments, but should use current nervousness and anxiety as a guide on how to remake their portfolio to be more stable regardless of conditions. Frick says he felt that the market was getting scary at the beginning of the year, so he reduced his exposure to stocks and started to prepare against sequence-of-returns risk because he is nearing retirement, and he says investors need to be much more focused on their internal risk-tolerance measures than anything that the market is doing to get through current conditions and plot for a future that is different economically, and that may not come back to the norms of recent years until there is more clarity on policies. Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says the stock market had gotten "extremely oversold" before the government's tariff announcements were made, which made for a perfect set-up for a big market decline. While the cause of the downturn is unusual, Kahn says that the technicals are not, and that investors should be looking for confirmation that the tide is turning; even then, however, he warned that investors should be cautious buyers, at least until tariff plans are more clear and certain. Plus John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — checks in on how closed-end funds have performed since the tariff announcement, particularly bond funds that have seen yields changing as part of the fixed-income market's response to the news; he discusses discount levels, strategies that closed-end fund investors might use now, and how the current situation compares in closed-end funds to the market decline around the Covid pandemic.
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Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, says that despite the painful volatility and the rising potential for recession, investors should be looking for opportunities, particularly in the areas that have been most hurt by recent action as the market has been. She notes that global small and mid-cap stocks are in bear-market territory, pricing in a recession and the impacts of inflation and more. pricing in recession. "The times when everybody is running for the doors, that is when you want to go in," Horneman says. She's not racing into the market and urges patience, but she believes investors can be aggressive now and be happy long-term with the results. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a commodity fund for his ETF of the Week, looking for a portfolio diversifier that will not move in sync with the market. Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager for Zacks Investment Management, talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck looks at what was, for most investors, the largest single day's gain they have seen in their lifetimes and how to use the recent stress and relief as a means of gauging if your portfolio is properly positioned for your needs and mindset now.
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Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says that unless an off-ramp to current government policies can be found, he expects a recession that is starting now and likely to last nine months. He has raised his likelihood of recession to 55 percent, but said you can see already a pullback in orders, which in turn will lead to a price shock, and then pullbacks in spending and ultimately labor that will complete the slowdown process. Brusuelas expects a 1 to 1.5 percent spike in inflation in the next two to three months, which would push inflation above 4 percent, yet he does not foresee the Federal Reserve acting quickly to mitigate the downturn. "They're going to be a bit late," Brusuelas says, in forecasting the first rate cuts no sooner than June. Also on the show, Roger Conrad, editor of Conrad’s Utility Investor and The REIT Sheet talks dividend investing and how it is being impacted by the market moving away from all-time highs and staring down bear-market conditions.
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JoAnne Bianco, partner and portfolio manager at BondBloxx, says that investors should be re-assessing risk and deciding if the market's current moves are an over-reaction that could rebound or something more sticky, and she notes that some fixed-income assets have been the best performers this year. She notes that long-duration Treasuries and U.S. corporate bonds have been stellar and seem to have priced in a lot of the turmoil, and she expects those asset classes to be less volatile than the market generally. She also likes the big payouts — without heightened default rates — in high-yield bonds now. Andrew Guillette discusses the latest U.S. investor survey from Broadridge Financial Solutions, which showed that one of the best ways to get better performance is to add some individual stocks to a balanced portfolio of mutual funds, with the single names helping to boost gains and put a strategy over the top. Plus Kirk McDonald, portfolio manager at Argent Capital, makes his debut in the Market Call talking mid-cap stocks, and Chuck talks about the moves he thinks nervous investors can make now that give them more control without blowing up their portfolio based on short-term market moves.
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Terri Spath, chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, talks about actionable steps investors can take now — and that she has taken for her clients — to mitigate anxiety amid the uncertainty of the current US stock market. Specifically, Spath is diversifying into investments that have a negative or no correlation to the U.S. market, buying gold, long-duration Treasury bonds and stepping up exposure to Germany and Japan; despite the turmoil, she still expects the stock market to finish 2025 with a solid year and reasonable gains. Chuck discusses what he took away from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last week at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Conference, and also lays out some key points that he believes will help investors get through what should be a very rough week. Plus Jillian Berman, a reporter and editor at MarketWatch, discusses her new book, "Sunk Costs: Who's to Blame for the Nation's Broken Student Loan System and How to Fix It."
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Duane McAllister, senior portfolio manager at Baird, says investors are right to be leaning into the fixed-income market as a safe haven amid current market turmoil, noting that the relationship between stocks and bonds has normalized, unlike 2022 when bonds moved in sync with stocks and investors lost money in both. With yields relatively high and holding steady, McAllister said bonds are proving their value as safe, stable holdings. Kerry Sette, head of consumer insights and research at Voya Financial, discusses the firm's latest consumer survey which showed that there is a growing fear that the economy and inflation will have a major impact on the ability to accumulate retirement savings. John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, answers audience questions on finding the best closed-end funds, spotting pending distribution cuts and more, and in any sector, and Peter Tuz, president of Chase investment Counsel, talks growth stocks in the Market Call.
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Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says the market's long-running bull market is "on thin ice right now," from a technical standpoint, having fallen below its 200-day moving average, leaving the market "at a really interesting juncture," and making him defensive, building more cash, loading up on utilities and safe sectors and waiting to see how it plays out. Samuelson says that if the market breaks down -- with a decline accelerated by reactions to government tariff policies -- it could drop another 15 percent or more, putting the market squarely into correction territory off of its February highs. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, is more interested in the recent rally in international stocks than he is in the possible impact of tariffs on the markets there, and picks a T. Rowe Price international fund as the ETF of the Week. Susan Fahy discusses the latest Credit Gauge from VantageScore, which shows that the resumption of student loan payments has negatively impacted credit scores and will drop them further, as other indicators suggest consumer finances are slowly declining. Plus Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, brings his "beat and replace" approach for stocks to the Market Call, and Chuck gives his initial take on what Wednesday's tariff news means for consumers.
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Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer for multi-asset strategies at Research Affiliates, says that despite the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and geo-politics, international markets remain attractive and with a better valuation than domestic markets. But those global markets may also get a boost from the Trump Administration's plans to weaken the dollar — a dollar that Masturzo says his firm believes is currently 25 percent overvalued — so he emphasized that investors should not "fight the Treasury," and should instead follow its actions to more international exposure in their portfolios. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers Index, which shows that forward-looking demand for beer is contracting, a sign that consumers may be looking to pull back on spending. Plus, Taylor Krystkowiak, vice president and investment strategist for the Themes ETFs discusses some popular investment themes — and the stocks that best represent them — in the Money Life Market Call.
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Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says the market has been in an oversold rally and is currently correcting as it comes out of that. He sees deteriorating breadth but still thinks this could be what he called "a healthy correction." McMillan says if the Standard & Poor's 500 can't hold the 5400 level, he would expect it to drop to 5000, a move big enough to put the stock market into bear market territory, a decline of 20 percent from market peaks in February. Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at The American College of Financial Services, returns to the show to discuss updates to "Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success,” and discusses the trend of investors trading some potential returns for more certainty, using annuities and reverse mortgages to secure income. Plus Wayne Thorp, head of research and analysis products for the American Association of Individual Investors — who created AAII's growth investing strategy — talks growth investing amid declining growth in the Money Life Market Call.
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Harvard University economist Jason Furman — the former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers — says that the tricky thing in forecasting now is high levels of uncertainty, particularly in terms of how much business and consumers pull back based on current conditions; if there's a recession, he says it will be spending cutbacks that trigger it. Furman notes that the average tariff rate is now back to levels from the 1940s, and while he says he'd be shocked if it triggers a Great Depression, it could trigger a recession where the loss of economic growth and higher inflation results in the effective loss of about $2,000 per family. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs puts CoreWeave — Wall Street's latest big IPO — into the Danger Zone right out of the box, and Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management returns to the show to discuss his new book, "How NOT to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth — And How to Avoid Them."
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Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts says that the stock market at current levels is unattractive, because "the upside potential is now way more limited than the downside risk," and he expects that risk to be realized in a decline that could drop the market by another 5 percent or more. De Kempenaer says this dip won't feel much like a buying opportunity, because the market will need several months or quarters to finish a rotation and find a new base to build on. He notes that investors have been gravitating toward bonds, another sign that they are concerned about the market's ability to keep generating gains. Jordan Lopez, manager of the Payden High Income fund, says high-yield bonds have been improving in quality, despite the higher interest rates of the last few years, and he expects the trend to continue, to the point where the market for junk bonds now looks more like what investment-grade bonds used to be. Plus, Eric Purington, portfolio manager for the Aberdeen Global Income Infrastructure fund, discusses the potential of middle-market infrastructure plays, and MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends discusses his latest piece, which suggests that the Trump Administration needs a weaker dollar to make its plans work, and that a recession may be a required part of that calculus behind tariffs and inflation-fighting strategies.
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Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, discusses how the site's latest survey shows that Americans are tapping into emergency savings increasingly to pay ordinary expenses. He talks about the dangerous spiral that a growing number of consumers are on, as they begin to exhaust emergency funds and have to rely increasingly on credit cards, currently carrying record-high interest rates. Rob Nestor, president of Turing Technologies, discusses the evolution of "high-conviction investing," and how focusing on the investment ideas that money managers most believe in can deliver results that beat indexes. In the Market Call, Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, makes his debut on the show, talking stocks.
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Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at QI Research, says that she remains concerned about the economy in the short run because Congress isn't being "brisk and efficient" in delivering on the promise of de-regulation and lower taxes. Since those potential policy benefits haven't shown up — but the uncertainty of tariff policies has — she is expecting a bumpy economic road ahead. She does say that inflation may be having less impact than consumers say it is having, but she notes that consumer fears are real and are contributing to her feelings that the economy will struggle to regain momentum. Speaking of tariffs, Chuck answers a listener's question on how they are supposed to work and why he has been saying the dollar must be weaker for them to achieve President Trump's stated goal. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com survey which showed that Americans with checking accounts have maintained the same account for an average of 19 years, which may mean they are missing out on opportunities to get more from their most basic bank accounts.
- Visa fler
