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  • In our final episode of the year, I converse with author and data scientist Coco Krumme about the benefits and costs of optimization in finance, industry, and our daily lives. We explore AI and its overlap with optimization. We also consider the pros and cons of life optimization and finally discuss the extreme challenge of opting out.

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    Show Notes

    Optimal Illusions: The False Promise of Optimization by Coco Krumme—Penguin Random House

    cocofolio.com

    Coco Krumme—LinkedIn

    Related Episode

    480: Beyond Faster (T+1) Trade Settlement: The Hidden Costs of Optimization

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  • How asset class returns move in cycles with periods of above-average returns followed by periods of lower returns. How has the rise of passive indexing led to higher stock valuations, and what does that mean for markets?

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    Show Notes

    The Equity Risk Premium: Nine Myths (JPM Series) by Rob Arnott—Research Affiliates

    The Greatest Scourge in Factorland: Revaluation Alpha = Fake Alpha (JPM Series) by Rob Arnott—Research Affiliates

    PASSIVE INVESTING AND THE RISE OF MEGA-FIRMS by Hao Jiang, Dimitri Vayanos, and Lu Zheng—NBER

    Limits to Diversification: Passive Investing and Market Risk by Lily H. Fang, et al.—SSRN

    Related Episodes

    503: U.S. Stocks Have Never Been This Overhyped or Expensive

    500: The S&P 500 Index and the Decade Ahead

    468: Lessons from Japan’s 34 Years of Stock Market Underperformance

    390: Are BlackRock and Vanguard Too Big and Powerful?

    234: Index But Don’t Herd

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  • What are the tangible and intangible factors that have contributed to long-term U.S. stock market outperformance compared to the rest of the world? Despite these advantages, why might we still want to continue to be globally diversified?

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    Show Notes

    American productivity still leads the world—The Economist

    The Outlook for Long-Term Economic Growth by Charles I. Jones—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

    How Much Will Global Warming Cool Global Growth? by Ishan B. Nath, Valerie A. Ramey, and Peter J. Klenow—UC San Diego

    Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies by Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis, and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon—European Central Bank

    Capitalism is in worse shape in Europe by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times

    The Mother of All Bubbles by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times

    The Curious Incident of the Elevated Profit Margins by James Montier—GMO

    Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product - FRED

    Euro area government deficit at 3.6% and EU at 3.5% of GDP—eurostat

    End of an era: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns by Michael Smolyansky—Federal Reserve Board

    Should investors just give up on stocks outside America?—The Economist

    Related Episodes

    500: The S&P 500 Index and the Decade Ahead

    499: What Makes an Economy Prosperous? Spotlight on Cuba and Argentina

    343: Why the Productivity Slowdown Could Lead to Lower Living Standards

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  • Why has there been renewed interest in nuclear power generation in the last couple of years, and how can we invest in it?

    Topics covered include:

    Why did Microsoft sign an agreement to reopen a nuclear reactor at the infamous Three Mile Island nuclear facilityHow much does nuclear energy contribute to global power generationWhy is demand for electricity acceleratingWhat are the advantages and challenges with nuclear energyWhat investment vehicles individuals can use to invest in nuclear energy

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    Show Notes

    Microsoft in deal for Three Mile Island nuclear power to meet AI demand by Myles McCormick and Jamie Smyth—The Financial Times

    Nuclear Power Was Once Shunned at Climate Talks. Now, It’s a Rising Star. by Brad Plumer—The New York Times

    Inside Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner—YouTube

    Q&A - Germany’s nuclear exit: One year after—Clean Energy Wire

    Fukushima Daiichi Accident—World Nuclear Association

    Chernobyl Accident 1986—World Nuclear Association

    Nuclear Energy in a Low-Carbon Energy Future—NEI

    Electricity Mid-Year Update - July 2024—IEA

    What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source?—U.S. Energy Information Administration

    How old are U.S. nuclear power plants, and when was the newest one built?—U.S. Energy Information Administration

    Global price of Uranium—FRED

    Investments Mentioned

    Pelican Energy Partners

    Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Performance (SRUUF)

    GlobalX Uranium ETF (URA)

    VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR)

    Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)

    Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ)

    Related Episodes

    469: Which Will Perform Better: Berkshire Hathaway or Utility Stocks?

    384: Has a Commodities Bull Market Supercycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest in It?

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  • We explore what strategy and systems are and how we craft and change them. We consider how investment strategies and financial systems have changed over the decades and why this matters to your financial decisions.

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    Show Notes

    Ruminating on Asset Allocation by Howard Marks—Oaktree Capital

    Michael E. Porter—Harvard Business School

    This Is Strategy by Seth Godin—Simon & Schuster

    Victor Meets the Boglehead by Victor Haghani & James White—VettaFi Advisor Perspectives

    Static vs Dynamic Asset Allocation; Victor Meets the Boglehead—Bogleheads.org

    Tim Cook on Why Apple’s Huge Bets Will Pay Off By Ben Cohen—The Wall Street Journal

    Related Episodes

    491: The Five Layers of Investing

    451: How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market

    420: Does a 60/40 Balanced Portfolio Still Work?

    397: How To Invest Based on Cycles

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  • In the 500th episode of Money for the Rest of Us, we focus on the S&P 500 Index. How has the index changed, and why have U.S. stocks performed so well? Will U.S. stocks only return 3% in the next decade, as Goldman Sachs predicts.

    We also discuss major themes covered on Money for the Rest of Us over 500 episodes and what are our plans for the future. Thanks for being a part of Money for the Rest of Us over the past decade.

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    Show Notes

    Select Sector Indices Consultation on Constituent Weightings Calculations – Results—S&P Global

    What Does an Election Year Mean for the Market?—S&P Global

    The Great Rotation: A potential unwinding of hyper-concentration in the US may favor balanced global portfolios by Brian Chingono—Verdad

    The Great Rotation (Part 2): The United States’ outsize weighting in commercial indices appears unjustified by its share of global GDP by Brian Chingono—Verdad

    Decade of Big S&P 500 Gains Is Over, Goldman Strategists Say by Sagarika Jaisinghani—Bloomberg

    David Stein LinkedIn Post—LinkedIn

    Vanguard warns investors over company stake limits by Steve Johnson, Will Schmitt, and Brooke Masters—The Financial Times

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  • We explore eight things that contribute to a healthy, growing economy and where Cuba and Argentina have fallen short.

    Topics covered include:

    Why Cuba continues to have rolling energy blackoutsWhy economic sanctions frequently don't workHow Argentina's President Millei is taking a "chainsaw" to the nation's economyWhy emerging markets will need to change their export-oriented growth trajectoryWhat are the risks to the long-term health of the U.S. economy

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    Show Notes

    Cuba is out of supplies and out of ideas—The Economist

    Cuba plunged into crisis by long power blackouts by Ed Augustin—The Financial Times 

    Power Outage Plunges All of Cuba Into Darkness by Frances Robles—The New York Times

    Why Economic Sanctions Backfire: The Role of Emigration in the Venezuelan Case by Nicolás Idrobo—SSRN

    The Impact of the Cuban Adjustment Act on Cuban Immigrants in the US by Tamarys Bahamonde—SSRN

    How is Javier Milei performing after nearly 11 months in office? by Michael Stott and Ciara Nugent—The Financial Times

    The weakest links in the global economy are on the mend by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times

    Argentina’s poverty rate soars above 50% under Javier Milei by Ciara Nugent—The Financial Times

    Argentina Inflation Slows to 2021 Levels in Win For Milei by Manuela Tobias—Bloomberg

    Argentina’s economy minister strikes defiant note on default risk by Ciara Nugent and Michael Stott—The Financial Times

    Argentine Debt Rises Out of Distress Territory on Milei Reforms by Kevin Simauchi—Bloomberg

    Argentina Scrapped Its Rent Controls. Now the Market Is Thriving. by Ryan Dubé—The Wall Street Journal

    Developing Countries Can’t Count on Manufacturing to Supercharge Growth by Kai Schultz and Shruti Srivastava—Bloomberg

    Related Episodes

    411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha Mehta

    409: What Is the IMF and Why Is It Controversial?

    233: Is An Emerging Markets Crisis Imminent?

    93: Capitalism, Complexity and Cuba

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  • In episode 498, David shares how his investing has changed over the past ten years and lessons you can apply to your portfolio.

    Document Your JourneyKeep ExperimentingBe Willing to Adopt New Asset ClassesBe Very PatientTrade Less, Focus On Long-term DriversMonetary DiversificationDon't Focus on Relative PerformanceIgnore the NoiseTake Your TimeThere Is No Right Way to Invest

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    Show Notes

    The Investor Podcast 668: What I Learned About Investing w/ Stig Brodersen

    Related Episodes

    454: How To Invest – Ten Rules of Thumb for Individual Investors

    423: A “Safe” 6% Yield: The Case for Investment Grade CLOs

    372: When Should You Sell An Investment?

    336: Own What Is Real

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  • Why 401k and other defined contribution schemes are flawed, leading to a generation of workers unprepared for retirement. What are the solutions to fix the mess.

    Topics

    Why 401k and other defined contributions haven't worked, despite their popularityWhy defined benefit pension plans declinedWhy 401k plans are treated like emergency fundsHow to combine the best of 401k and defined benefit pension plans

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    Show Notes

    The Shift that Redefined Retirement Security by Shashwat Vidhu Sher—SSRN

    Was the 401(k) a Mistake? by Michael Steinberger—The New York Times Magazine

    Who Has Retirement Accounts? New Data Reveal Inequality in Retirement Account Ownership by Maria G. Hoffman, Mark A. Klee and Briana Sullivan—United States Census Bureau

    U.S. Retirement Assets: Data in Brief—Congressional Research Service

    Where do my CPP contributions go?—CPP Investments

    Related Episodes

    460: Should You Be Invested 100% in Stocks Before and During Retirement? A Recent Study Says Yes. 

    441: What If Social Security Had Been Privatized?

    279: Why All Retirees Should Consider an Income Annuity

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  • Why we need distinct risk buckets: balancing our natural loss aversion with the allure of opportunities that offer the potential for massive upside.

    Topics covered include:

    What is modern portfolio theory, and what are some of its flawsWhy so many people have gotten wealthy by being undiversifiedHow to balance personal risk, market risk, and aspirational riskHow prospect theory explains our attraction to positively skewed opportunitiesWhy most people won't get wealthy unless they take some aspirational risk

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    Show Notes

    Portfolio Selection by Harry Markowitz—The Journal of Finance, Vol. 7, No. 1. (Mar., 1952), pp. 77-91

    Safety First and the Holding of Assets by A. D. Roy—Econometrica, Vol. 20, No. 3 (Jul., 1952), pp. 431-449

    The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson—Hachette Book Group

    Beyond Markowitz: A Comprehensive Wealth Allocation Framework for Individual Investors by Ashvin B. Chhabra—The Journal of Wealth Managment, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp 8-34, Spring 2005

    The Wealth of Households: 2021: Current Population Reports by Briana Sullivan, Donald Hays, and Neil Bennett—Census.gov

    Average, Median, Top 1%, and all United States Net Worth Percentiles—DQYDJ

    PROSPECT THEORY AND STOCK MARKET ANOMALIES by Nicholas C. Barberis, Lawrence J. Jin, and Baolian Wang—NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

    Related Episodes

    82: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity

    460: Should You Be Invested 100% in Stocks Before and During Retirement? A Recent Study Says Yes. 

    421: Beware of Survivorship Bias When Investing

    Investing Rule One: Avoid Ruin

    229: Stop Maximizing Your Returns Using Modern Portfolio Theory

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  • This week on the podcast, we share excerpts from Plus episode 484 on ETF size and the impact of QE, as well as Plus episode 493 on stock market inelasticity.

    You can learn more about Money for the Rest of Us Plus here.

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  • What does the Federal Reserve's policy rate cut mean for our portfolios? Will interest rates keep falling? What changes should we make?

    Topics include:

    What determines interest rates, and where are those drivers currentlyWhat is the best estimate of bond returnsHow duration works and why it changesWhat are some current fixed income investment options

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    Show Notes

    Asset Camp

    FedWatch—CME Group

    Summary of Economic Projections—US Federal Reserve

    Investors may be getting the Federal Reserve wrong, again—The Economist

    Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

    Yield to Maturity Is Always Received as Promised by Richard J. Cebula

    and Bill Z. Yang—Journal of Economics and Finance

    The Truth about Yield by Jason Bove and Mark Willauer—J.P. Morgan

    Related Episodes

    464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall

    463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall

    455: Easier Investing, Richer Life: TIPS Ladders to Annuities

    418: Bond Investing Masterclass

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  • How do home equity investments, income share agreements, and music royalties work, and how can you participate?

    Topics covered include:

    How a home equity investment differs from a home mortgageWhat is the cost of home equity investmentsHow funding education through income share agreements has changedWhy artists sell royalties to their workHow individuals can invest in music royalties

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    Show Notes

    Unlock Product Guide—Unlock

    Point and Atalaya Capital Management Close Oversubscribed $141 Million Home Equity Investment Rated Securitization—Global Newswire

    What Colleges Should Know About Income Share Agreements and Private Education Loan Requirements by Rich Williams—Homeroom

    CFPB settles claims against operator of training program arising out of income share agreements by John L. Culhane, Jr. & Thomas Burke—Consumer Finance Monitor

    Bond market: Bowie Bonds and the Evolution of the Bond Market—Faster Capital

    Related Episodes

    493: The Housing Affordability Crisis: What Caused It and How to Fix It

    349: Forward and Reverse Mortgages: When To Take Them Out and When to Pay Them Off

    307: Income Share Agreements—Good for Students or Investors?

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  • What caused the 40% price increase in houses and rents, and what are governments doing to try to fix the problem.

    Topics covered include:

    Why 50% of the global population is frustrated with the lack of affordable housingHow the housing collapse as part of the Great Financial Crisis contributed to today's affordability crisisHow central bank QE programs have magnified the housing crisisHow restrictive zoning and short-term rentals contribute to the housing crisisWhat governments are doing to encourage more housing supplyWhat individuals can do until housing becomes more affordable

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    Show Notes

    Concern over housing costs hits record high across rich nations by Valentina Romei and Sam Fleming—The Financial Times

    Home Price to Median Household Income Ratio (US)—Longtermtrends

    Home Ownership Affordability Monitor—Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

    AMERICA'S RENTAL HOUSING 2024—Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University

    America retains “rent burdened” status—Moody's

    U.S. 2024 and 2025 Mid-Year Outlook Report—AirDNA

    ARIZONA’S NEW HOUSING LAWS EXPLAINED—Tempe YIMBY

    What Kalamazoo (Yes, Kalamazoo) Reveals About the Nation’s Housing Crisis by Conor Dougherty—The New York Times

    How Rent Controls Are Deepening the Dutch Housing Crisis by Cagan Koc and Sarah Jacob—Bloomberg

    Related Episodes

    389: Is Airbnb Intensifying the Housing Crisis?

    357: Is a Housing Crash Coming?

    238: The U.S. Is More Socialist Than Denmark Regarding Home Mortgages

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  • In this episode, we explore the concept of optionality—how small, strategic decisions can lead to outsized rewards with limited downside risk. From ancient philosophy to modern financial strategies, discover how recognizing and seizing options can unlock opportunities in both life and investing.

    Topics covered include:

    How call and put options workThe difference between American and European style options and why it mattersWhy options are positively skewedExamples of using optionality in business and lifeWhy it can be challenging to commit when an option is "in the money"

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    Show Notes

    Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random House

    The Wisdom Of Finance: Discovering Humanity in the World of Risk and Return by Mihir Desai—Harper Academic

    Refuse to Choose!: Use All of Your Interests, Passions, and Hobbies to Create the Life and Career of Your Dreams—Penguin Random House

    An Economist Walks into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk by Allison Schrager—Penguin Random House

    Related Episodes

    482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity

    268: How To Better Manage Risk

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  • In Episode 491, we explore the five layers of investing, including which assets fit into each layer, and give examples of advertisements targeting each layer.

    The five layers are:

    1. Short-term trading2. Longer-term speculations3. Individual securities4. Diversified portfolios focused on underlying drivers and factors5. Maximum diversification with few changes and just a few holdings

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    Show Notes

    Asset Camp

    The Role of Emotions in Financial Decisions by David Tuckett—ResearchGate

    Morningstar Active Passive Barometer

    Related Episodes

    486: How Retail Traders Lose Big While Enriching Wall Street

    431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold

    306: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation

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  • How do buyouts, venture capital, and growth equity work? Has private equity outperformed the stock market, and can individual investors pursue these investment strategies?

    Topics covered include:

    How are private equity funds structured, and what are the feesHow is private equity performance measured, and how has it performedWhy does private equity have such a large dispersion of returns compared to the public stock marketWhat is private equity dry powder, and why is there much of itWhat are some ways individuals can invest in private equity and why should they use caution in doing so

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    Show Notes

    Understanding Private Fund Performance by Kaitlin Hendrix and Mamdouh Medhat—SSRN

    What Drives Private-Equity Performance Persistence? New Deal-Level Evidence by Axel Buchner and Susanne Espenlaub and Abdul Mohamed—SSRN

    Unlocking the Power of Relationships: Limited Partner Networks and Performance in Private Equity by José Carlos Franco de Abreu Neto and Saito Richard—SSRN

    Private equity dry powder growth accelerated in H1 2024 by Dylan Thomas and Annie Sabater—S&P Global

    Private Equity Gets Creative to Buy Time for More Gains. Clients Say Pay Me Now by Allison McNeely and Dawn Lim—Bloomberg

    Related Episodes

    458: Dissecting Stock Returns: Financial Engineering or Genuine Growth?

    440: Beware of Platform Risk

    350: How to Invest in Startups on Equity Crowdfunding Platforms?

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  • This week, we release one of David's favorite episodes from six years ago, Episode 203: Is Investing More Like Poker or Chess.

    Topics covered include:

    What is the difference between chess and poker.Why we need to separate the decision process from the outcome.How to improve the quality of our investment decisions.What are are wu-wei and qi and what role do they play in better decision making.

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    Show Notes

    Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts by Annie Duke

    Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

    The Tao of Pooh by Benjamin Hoff

    Trying Not to Try: Ancient China, Modern Science, and the Power of Spontaneity by Edward Slingerland

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  • In episode 489, we examine three factors that contributed to this week's big stock market declines, analyze whether a recession is imminent, and review David's recent portfolio changes.

    Topics covered include:

    The benefits of looking at market and economic trends monthlyHow bad was the recent U.S. employment report and what is the Sahm RuleWhat are leading economic indicators saying about recession riskWhy the Federal Reserve will be lowering its policy rate, leading to lower cash yieldsWhy the Japanese yen strengthened, leading to market turmoilWhy investors are rotating from large cap growth to small cap value stocksHow David locked in higher yields

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    Show Notes

    Transcript of Chair Powell’s FOMC Press Conference July 31, 2024—The Federal Reserve

    Goolsbee Says Fed Won’t Overreact to One Month’s Data by Catarina Saraiva and Ananya Chag—Bloomberg

    Congressional Budget Office Updates Baseline: Deficit Spending is 27 Percent Higher Than Previously Estimated—U.S. House Budget Committee

    Investments Mentioned

    Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG)

    Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR)

    iShares International Developed Small Cap Value Factor ETF (ISVL)

    Invesco BulletShares 2031 Corporate Bond ETF (BSCV)

    iShares Large Cap Max Buffer ETF (MAXJ)

    BlackRock AAA CLO ETF (CLOA)

    Related Episodes

    485: Should You Invest in Defined Outcome (Buffer) ETFs?

    476: Is Small Cap Dead? Why You Shouldn’t Abandon Small Company Stocks

    472: Is the Economy as Bad as People Think?

    464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall

    463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall

    423: A “Safe” 6% Yield: The Case for Investment Grade CLOs

    302: Investing is Not Knowing

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  • What is the investment case for Ethereum, and what are the risks? A straightforward review of what ether and Ethereum are, how they work, and what it will take for the Ethereum blockchain to be successful.

    Topics covered include:

    Who launched Ethereum ETFs and what are the feesHow Ethereum differs from BitcoinExamples of applications built on the Ethereum blockchain including NFTs, stablecoins, DAOs, and tokenized real-world assetsHow Ethereum has evolved to lower fees, reduce supply, cut its energy use, and increase capacityWhat is Ethereum staking and how much can investors earn doing soWhat will cause ether to go up in price

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    Show Notes

    Spot Ethereum ETFs begin trading today: Here's what you need to know by Jason Shubnell—The Block

    The spot Ethereum ETFs' first week by the numbers by James Hunt—The Block

    The Idols NFT—theidols.io

    Read Write Own by Chris Dixon—readwriteown.com

    Ethereum is the Only Institution-Friendly Smart Contract Chain by Qiao Wang—Medium

    EthereumETH Staking—Coinbase

    5 Ways to Stake Your Crypto Assets—Staking Rewards

    Ethereum's Dencun Upgrade: Unleashing Scalability and Efficiency—bitpay

    Solana vs. Ethereum: Which Is Better in 2024? —KuCoin

    Related Episodes

    462: Now Should You Buy a Bitcoin ETF?

    373: Are Stablecoins Safe? Should You Own Them?

    368: How to Invest in Web3, DAOs, and the Metaverse

    339: How To Make Money with BlockFi, Dai, and the Evolving DeFi Ecosystem

    335: Are Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) Good Investments?

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