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Stephen Miran is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Stephen is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled, *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy,* as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidential term would mean for the Fed and financial markets.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Stephen’s Twitter: @SteveMiran
Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy* by Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini
*Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar But Wall Street Doubts He’ll Get One* by Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson
*Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:49) – Breaking Down *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy*
(00:21:33) – Responding to Criticism from Janet Yellen and Others
(00:28:21) – Addressing Trump’s Push for a Weaker Dollar
(00:38:24) – Can We Weaken the Dollar While Still Ensuring Its Use?
(00:43:07) – What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Fed Independence and Crypto
(00:49:19) – Outro
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Carola Binder is an associate professor of civic leadership and economics at the University of Texas at Austin, and she is the author of a new book titled, *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy.* Carola is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about this book and some recent work she has done on the Fed’s framework review. David and Carola specifically discuss the history of inflation in the US, the advantages of adopting a nominal GDP targeting regime, what to expect from the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Carola’s Twitter: @cconces
Carola’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy* by Carola Binder
*Why Do We Dislike Inflation?* by Stefanie Stantcheva
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:03:42) – *Nominal GDP Targeting: Lessons from Recent History*
(00:12:18) – NGDP Level Targeting: Looking Through Supply Shocks and Policy Communication
(00:17:16) – *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy*
(00:21:44) – The History of Inflation and Deflation in the US
(00:30:30) – Key Lessons from the Revolutionary War and Civil War Periods
(00:35:37) – The Impact of Price Controls During World War II
(00:40:42) – The Emergence of Price Stability: From the Great Inflation Period to the Present
(00:46:24) – The Direction of the Fed’s Framework Review
(00:49:22) – Outro
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Samim Ghamami is an economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), where he has been working on reforming the US Treasury market, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these efforts. Samim and David also discuss the long run path of interest rates, the basics of the Treasury market, Samim’s outlook for Treasury market reform, and much more.
DISCLAIMER: Samim’s views are his own and do not represent those of his SEC colleagues, the commissioners, or the Chair.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Samim’s Twitter: @GhamamiSamim
Samim’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:00:58) – Samim’s Journey to the SEC
(00:05:47) – Breaking Down the Size and Composition of the Treasury Market
(00:10:25) – Explaining the Long Run Path of Interest Rates
(00:18:48) – The Key Segments of the Treasury Market
(00:28:25) – Central Clearing as a Treasury Market Reform
(00:34:40) – Picking the Most Effective Treasury Market Reform
(00:37:39) – Samim’s Future Outlook for Other Treasury Market Reforms
(00:43:46) – Addressing Risk Concentration Concerns
(00:48:26) – Outro
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Kyla Scanlon is the founder of Bread, a financial education company where she brings economics to a wide and often younger audience, and is also the author of the book, *In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work.* Kyla joins David on Macro Musings to talk about a wide range of economic issues, including the case nominal GDP targeting, the basics of the “Vibecession” and the vibe economy, how to further build American wealth, and more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Kyla’s Twitter: @kylascan
Kyla’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work* by Kyla Scanlon
*Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy* by George Selgin
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:06) – Kyla’s Academic and Professional Path
(00:15:20) – Flipping the Macro Musings Script: David’s NGDP Targeting Pitch
(00:30:52) – Breaking Down the “Vibecession” and the Vibe Economy
(00:34:41) – The Housing Side of a Vibe Economy
(00:38:54) – The Path to Growing American Wealth
(00:41:40) – The Issue of Population Growth
(00:44:15) – Gen Z’s Interest in Macroeconomics
(00:47:52) – How Should We Think About Labor Market Indicators?
(00:50:51) – Outro
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Sam Schulhofer-Wohl is the Senior Vice President and the Senior Advisor to the President of the Dallas Fed, Lorie Logan. Sam is a longtime veteran of the Federal Reserve System and has also previously served at the Minneapolis and Chicago Federal Reserve banks. Sam joins David on Macro Musings to talk about Treasury market resiliency issues, the floor system, the Friedman Rule, bank deposits, the monetary policy implications of labor migration across the United States, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Sam’s Dallas Fed profile
Sam’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*The Customer Settlement Risk Externality at US Securities Central Counterparties* by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
*Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability* by Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, and Joshua Younger
*Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration* by Greg Kaplan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
*Is a Treasury Central Clearing Mandate the Path to Increased Central Clearing?* by Marta Chaffee and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
*The Netting Efficiencies of Marketwide Central Clearing* by Michael Fleming and Frank Keane
*Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule* - A speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at the 2023 European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:31) – Sam’s Wide-Ranging Career Path
(00:11:08) – The Customer Settlement Risk Externality
(00:14:30) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market
(00:18:38) – The Importance and Effectiveness of Central Clearing
(00:26:50) – The History and Role of FICC
(00:32:27) – All-to-all Trades as a Path to Reforming the Treasury Market
(00:36:52) – The Future Timeline for Central Clearing
(00:39:07) – *Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule*
(00:46:52) – *Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability*
(00:52:21) – The Importance of Labor Migration for Monetary Policy
(00:59:42) – Outro
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Nicholas Anthony is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, a fellow at the Human Rights Foundation, and is also a returning guest to the podcast. Nick rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about a new book he has authored titled, *Digital Currency or Digital Control: Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money.* Specifically, Nicholas and David discuss the history of CBDCs, their challenges and drawbacks, Nick’s recommendations for the future, and a lot more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Nick’s Twitter: @EconWithNick
Nick’s Cato profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Digital Currency or Digital Control: Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money* by Nicholas Anthony
*Nicholas Anthony on the Current Prospects and Legislative Developments Surrounding CBDC* by Macro Musings
*Macroeconomic Modelling of CBDC: A Critical Review* by Ulrich Bindseil and Richard Senner
*Ulrich Bindseil on Central Bank Operating Systems* by Macro Musings
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:50) – The Future Prospects of CBDC: From Congress to the White House
(00:07:35) – The History of CBDCs
(00:11:19) – Breaking Down the Three Types of CBDCs
(00:17:22) – The Challenges and Drawbacks of CBDCs
(00:25:42) – The Buffer Between CBDCs and Privacy
(00:31:00) – Wholesale CBDCs, Real-time Payments, and Cross-border Payments
(00:41:06) – The Potential Destabilizing Effects of CBDCs
(00:46:12) – The Pros and Cons of a CBDC for the Fed
(00:53:23) – Responding to Pro-CBDC Arguments
(00:59:05) – Recommendations for the Future of CBDCs
(01:01:92) – Outro
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James Bullard was the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 2008 to 2023, and he is currently the dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. School of Business at Purdue University. James is also a previous guest of the show, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Fed, FAIT, and the upcoming Fed framework review. Specifically, James and David also discuss how to improve the FOMC’s economic reporting, the case for implementing nominal GDP targeting, the future of R-star, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
James’s St. Louis Fed bio
James’s Purdue University profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*R-Star Wars: The Phantom Menace* - A presentation by James Bullard at the 34th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference
*Demand Shocks as Technology Shocks* by Yan Bai, Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, and Kjetil Storesletten
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:03:10) – Defining the St. Louis Fed and Bullard’s Fed Tenure
(00:09:58) – Comparing FAIT and Nominal GDP Targeting
(00:15:55) – Assessing the Current FAIT Framework
(00:25:37) – Evaluating the Recent V-Shaped Recovery
(00:29:28) – What to Expect from the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
(00:33:31) – Improving the FOMC’s Economic Reporting
(00:37:46) – The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting
(00:50:24) – The Future of R-Star
(00:53:52) – Outro
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Josh Lipsky is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the tools of financial statecraft, how they have evolved over the years, and their implications for digital currencies moving forward. Specifically, David and Josh also discuss how financial statecraft would be applied to a possible conflict with China, the current state of the cross-border payments system, the future of wholesale CBDC in the US, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Josh’s Twitter: @joshualipsky
Josh’s Atlantic Council profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Sanctioning China in a Taiwan Crisis: Scenarios and Risks* by Charlie Vest, Agatha Kratz, Juliana Bouchaud, Josh Lipsky, Kimberly Donovan, Charles Lichfield, and Niels Graham.
*The Geopolitical Imperative to Upgrade the Dollar* by Jordan Bleicher and Josh Lipsky
*Stablecoins and National Security: Learning the Lessons of Eurodollars* by Timothy Massad
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:04:02) – The Russia Sanctions as an Example of Financial Statecraft
(00:10:14) – The Financing of the Russia-Ukraine War
(00:14:08) – The Delicacy of Legal Precedents and the REPO Act
(00:19:10) – Breaking Down the Tools of Financial Statecraft
(00:22:08) – Applying Financial Statecraft to a Possible China Conflict
(00:28:52) – Cross-border Payments and the Global Status of the US Dollar
(00:34:05) – Breaking Down the Development and Geopolitical Importance of mBridge
(00:38:34) – The Future and Importance of Wholesale CBDC in the US
(00:43:28) – Private Sector Alternatives to CBDCs
(00:45:05) – Where is the CBDC Conversation Headed?
(00:49:25) – Closing Thoughts: The 80th Anniversary of Bretton Woods and the Future of Dollar Dominance
(00:52:48) – Outro
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Steven Kelly is the Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability and is also a returning guest to the podcast. Steven rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the financial stability implications of the discount window. David and Steven also discuss the issues with FHLBs, how to fix the challenge of reporting requirements, restarting the term auction facility and committed liquidity facilities, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Steven’s Twitter: @StevenKelly49
Steven’s blog: Without Warning
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Domestic Liquidity Provision During Potential Crises* - a panel discussion featuring Steven Kelly, Bill Nelson, Susan McLaughlin, and Luc Laeven at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s 2024 Financial Markets Conference
*Weekly Fed Report Still Drives Discount Window Stigma* by Steven Kelly
*The New Bagehot Project* - an initiative by the Yale Program on Financial Stability
*Forward Guidance: Something Old and Something New: Two Potential, Beneficial Discount Window Facilities* by Bill Nelson
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:02) – The Yale Program on Financial Stability and Steven’s Role
(00:07:04) – Building a Resilient Regulatory Framework
(00:12:45) – Addressing Issues in the Discount Window
(00:21:37) – Responding to Criticism of Liquidity Regulations
(00:27:22) – Fixing the Challenge of Reporting Requirements
(00:33:29) – Restarting the Term Auction Facility and Committed Liquidity Facilities
(00:37:24) – Addressing the Issue with FHLBs
(00:45:26) – Additional Thoughts from the Atlanta Fed Conference Panel
(00:50:59) – Could Increased Use of the Discount Window Cause a Shift in the Fed’s Operating System?
(00:54:44) – Outro
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Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie’s favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Ernie’s Twitter: @ernietedeschi
Ernie’s Budget Lab profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium* by Ernie Tedeschi
*Recent Movements in [R-star]: The Most Important Interest Rate That You have Never Heard Of* by Ernie Tedeschi
*The 2024 Economic Report of the President* by the White House Council of Economic Advisers
*The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong* by Nick Timiraos
*Summers, Blanchard Say Waller’s ‘Soft-Landing’ Paper Has Errors* by Craig Torres
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:49) – Ernie’s Experience at the CEA
(00:09:15) – The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy
(00:15:28) – Ernie’s Favorite Measures of the Labor Market
(00:20:17) – The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures
(00:24:07) – The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium
(00:28:56) – Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege
(00:33:46) – Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario
(00:37:01) – Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario
(00:43:25) – Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars
(00:48:39) – Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars
(00:54:46) – Assessing the Sources of High Productivity
(00:58:22) – Outro
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Jeffrey Lacker is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, but has also previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond from 1989 to 2017, serving as its president from 2004 to 2017. Jeff is also a returning guest to podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about Fed governance issues and the lessons learned from the recent inflation surge. Specifically, David and Jeffrey also discuss the issue of maximum employment, how the Fed could reform its governance structure, what the central bank should address during the next framework review, and more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Jeffrey’s Mercatus profile
Jeffrey’s website
Jeffrey’s Richmond Fed archive
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*Governance and Diversity at the Federal Reserve* by Jeffrey Lacker
*What Lessons Should the Federal Reserve Learn from the Recent Inflation Surge?* Presentation by Jeffrey Lacker at the 2024 UC San Diego Economics Roundtable Lecture Series
*Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Fed’s Accountability to Congress* by Andrew Levin and Christina Parajon Skinner
*Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes* by Dan Katz and Stephen Miran
*Don’t Audit the Fed, Restructure It* by Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland
*Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance* by Peter Conti-Brown
*Jim Hamilton on Econometrics, Energy Markets, and Low Interest Rates* by Macro Musings
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:04:35) – Jeffrey’s View on “Monetary Federalism”
(00:10:01) – Reducing the Number of Regional Fed Banks
(00:13:11) – Addressing Peter Conti-Brown’s Proposals for Fed Governance Reform
(00:18:23) – Addressing Andy Levin and Christina Skinner’s Proposals for Fed Governance Reform
(00:23:07) – Altering the Fed’s Responsibilities as a Bank Regulator
(00:29:21) – What Lessons Should the Federal Reserve Learn from the Recent Inflation Surge?
(00:36:14) – The Issue of Maximum Employment
(00:46:38) – Evaluating the Fed’s Response to the Recent Inflation Episode
(00:50:45) – What Should the Fed Be Addressing During the Next Framework Review?
(00:55:01) – Outro
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Mickey Levy is Chief Economist for the Americas and Asia for Berenberg Capital Markets, a Wall Street veteran, and a longstanding member of the Shadow Open Market Committee. He and his co-author, Charles Plosser, also have a new paper out titled, *The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot.* Mickey joins David on Macro Musings to discuss this paper and its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve framework review. David and Mickey also discuss the impact and importance of a flat Phillips curve, the Fed’s policy mistakes in the wake of its new flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) framework, recommendations for how the central bank should approach the next framework review, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Mickey’s Twitter: @mickeylevy
Mickey’s website
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:50) – Mickey Levy’s Career Path and Takeaways from the Most Recent Hoover Monetary Policy Conference
(00:07:24) – What Shaped the First Framework Review?
(00:11:56) – The Fed’s Addition of “Symmetric” Inflation
(00:16:32) – Price Level Drift, Deflationary Fears, and Inflation Expectations at the Fed
(00:23:33) – The Impact and Importance of a Flat Phillips Curve
(00:27:34) – Breaking Down the Elements of FAIT and the Fed’s Policy Mistakes
(00:42:11) – Recommendations for the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
(00:57:54) – Outro
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Lars Christensen is a founding member of the market monetarist tradition, an entrepreneur in the AI space, and is also a returning guest to Macro Musings. Lars rejoins the podcast to talk about AI and its implications for the economy and for monetary policy. David and Lars also discuss the basics and implications of dynamic pricing, AI’s growing use within econometric analysis, how AI will impact the Fed and its policymaking, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Lars’s Twitter: @MaMoMVPY
Lars’s blog
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*From Merchants to Quants: The Digital Revolution in Retail* by Lars Christensen
*Less Than Zero: The Case for a Falling Price Level in a Growing Economy* by George Selgin
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:16) – Lars’s Move from Macro to AI
(00:08:02) – The Basics and Implications of Dynamic Pricing
(00:16:17) – Using AI for Econometric Analysis
(00:23:54) – The Implications of AI for the Economics Field
(00:35:45) – How Will AI Impact the Federal Reserve and its Policymaking
(00:38:55) – Deflation as a Response to an AI Driven Productivity Shock
(00:52:08) – Outro
Photo Credit: Nordnet Bank
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Ryan Bourne is the R. Evan Scharf Chair for Public Understanding of Economic at the Cato Institute, and he is also the editor and contributor to a new book titled, *The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy.* Ryan joins Macro Musings to talk about this new book, and specifically, the history and functionality of rent and price controls, the basics of dynamic pricing, the root causes of inflation, and a lot more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Ryan’s Twitter: @MrRBourne
Ryan’s Cato profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Created Bad Policy* by Ryan Bourne et al.
*I, Pencil* by Leonard Read
*Forty Centuries of Wage and Prices Controls: How Not to Fight Inflation* by Robert Schuettinger and Eamonn Butler
*Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy* by Carola Binder
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:05) – The Background Motivation for “The War on Prices*
(00:06:32) – The Definition and Importance of Prices
(00:12:41) – The Parable of “I, Pencil”
(00:18:39) – Rationing on Quality or Quantity: Rent Control
(00:26:39) – The World War II Experience with Price Controls
(00:32:58) – Price and Wage Controls During the Nixon Administration
(00:35:48) – The Effects of a Minimum Wage
(00:38:38) – The Basics of Dynamic Pricing
(00:44:03) – Defining Inflation and Establishing its Sources
(00:56:08) – Was the Recent Inflation Surge Actually Optimal?
(00:59:51) – Outro
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George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest of the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about some of the recent developments in the monetary and fiscal policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss recent updates regarding Fed master accounts, the problematic aspects of the Fed’s balance sheet, why a second Trump term would threaten central bank independence, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin
George’s Cato profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
Caitlin Long’s tweet regarding the Fed’s special treatment for approving master accounts
*Public comments on the Proposed Guidelines for Evaluating Requests for Accounts and Services* by George Selgin
*Custodia Bank Inc v. Federal Reserve Board of Governors* Court documents from the Wyoming District Court
*Annual Report on Open Market Operations (2023)* by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
*Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary
*Trump Advisers Discuss Penalties for Nations That Move Away From the Dollar* by Saleha Mohsin, Jennfier Jacobs, and Nancy Cook
*Hayek versus Keynes on How the Price Level Ought to Behave* by George Selgin
*The Menace of Fiscal QE* by George Selgin
*George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings
Timestamps:
(00:01:36) – Intro
(00:06:26) – Updates on Fed Master Accounts and the Custodia Case
(00:17:57) – Problematic Aspects of the Fed’s Balance Sheet
(00:22:50) – The Importance of the Overnight Unsecured Interbank Lending Market
(00:34:26) – Responding to the Jared Bernstein Incident
(00:46:33) – Donald Trump, Central Bank Independence, and Dollar Dominance
(00:56:54) – Outro
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Roberto Perli is the manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and a senior leader in the New York Fed’s Markets Group. In his role, Roberto is responsible for implementing monetary policy at the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Roberto is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about a recent speech he made titled, *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead.* Specifically, David and Roberto discuss the Fed’s recent balance sheet activities, the basics and functionality of the overnight reverse repo facility, the importance of slowing down the Fed’s balance sheet runoff, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Roberto’s NY Fed profile
Roberto’s Twitter: @R_Perli
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
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*Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead* - Remarks by Roberto Perli at the 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:04:49) – Breaking Down the Role of SOMA Manager
(00:08:43) – Recapping the Fed’s Balance Sheet Activities
(00:11:04) – How to Think About Quantitative Tightening
(00:13:19) – Breaking Down the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility
(00:20:42) – Slowing Down the Runoff and the Future of QT
(00:26:48) – How to Determine the Critical Level of Reserves
(00:33:03) – The Structural Demand for Bank Reserves Over Time
(00:38:55) – The Advantages of the Floor Operating System
(00:47:49) – Reserve Supply Focus Moving Forward
(00:49:44) – Outro
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Mary Daly is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and is also a 28-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. President Daly joins David for this special live episode of Macro Musings to talk about her non-linear career path to the world of monetary policy, the long-term economic impacts of AI, the future outlook for Fed policy and the Fed’s framework, and much more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Mary’s Twitter: @MaryDalyEcon
Mary’s San Francisco Fed profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
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*Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by David Beckworth
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:01:30) – Mary Daly’s Background
(00:06:09) – Recent Inflationary Trends and the Future of Fed Policy
(00:15:39) – The Trajectory of R-Star Over the Medium to Long-Run
(00:19:06) – The Long-Term Economic Impacts of AI
(00:29:51) – Expectations for the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
(00:33:35) – Prospects for Nominal GDP Targeting at the Fed
(00:36:58) – Fed Policymaking During an Election Year
(00:38:16) – Audience Q&A Period
(01:01:09) – Outro
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Dan Katz and Stephen Miran are former senior advisors for the US Treasury Department and are currently adjunct fellows at the Manhattan Institute. Dan and Stephen have also written a new paper titled, *Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes,* and they join Macro Musings to talk about this paper and the proposed reforms for the Federal Reserve outlined in it. Specifically, Dan, Steve, and David discuss the ever-expanding reach of the Fed, its role as debt manager and bank regulator, the current issue with the central bank’s personnel, and a lot more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Stephen’s Twitter: @SteveMiran
Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile
Dan’s Twitter: @DanielScottKatz
Dan’s Manhattan Institute profile
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
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*Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes* by Dan Katz and Stephen Miran
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:04:20) – The Fed’s Issue of Picking Winners and Losers
(00:09:17) – The Fed’s Role as Bank Regulator
(00:12:53) – The Ever-Expanding Reach of the Fed
(00:17:50) – The Fed as a Debt Manager
(00:23:33) – What Should the Fed Do in a Zero Lower Bound Environment
(00:27:26) – Personnel is Policy: The Issue with Fed Personnel
(00:29:55) – Options for Personnel Reform at the Fed
(00:38:22) – Making the Fed President Selection Process More Robust
(00:47:28) – The Nature of Debate at the Fed
(00:50:53) – The Scope for Change at the Fed
(00:53:21) – Outro
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Richard Clarida is a professor of economics at Columbia University, a managing director at PIMCO, and was most recently the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Richard rejoins David for this special bonus segment to talk about his interest in music and his first studio album, *Time No Changes.*
Richard’s Federal Reserve profile
Richard’s PIMCO archive
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
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*Time No Changes* by Richard Clarida
*Richard Clarida on FAIT, R-Star, and the Future of the Fed’s Framework* by Macro Musings
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Richard Clarida is a well-known academic and policymaker who most recently was the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Richard is currently a professor of economics at Columbia university and is also a managing director at PIMCO. Richard joins David on Macro Musings to talk about his academic and policy work, as well as his outlook for FAIT, the Fed’s framework review, the future of R-Star, and more.
Transcript for this week’s episode.
Richard’s Federal Reserve profile
Richard’s PIMCO archive
David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings
Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!
Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!
Join the Macro Musings mailing list!
Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Related Links:
*How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy* by Richard Clarida and Mark Gertler
*The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective* by Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler
*Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory* by Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler
*Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence* by Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) – Intro
(00:03:04) – Richard Clarida’s Background
(00:11:37) – Bridging the Gap Between Academic Economics and Real-World Markets
(00:21:50) – Richard’s Journey Through the Policy World
(00:36:29) – Constructing the Fed’s FAIT Framework
(00:40:53) – Evaluating the Results of the FAIT Framework
(00:54:17) – The Future of the Fed’s Framework
(00:57:08) – The Future of R-Star
(01:00:50) – Outro
- Visa fler
