Avsnitt
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Wars burn hardware, and rebuilding it takes years.
This week Simon Brown works through the defence sector as a replacement thesis — the US fired roughly half its THAAD interceptor stockpile in twelve days against Iran — and settles on Lockheed Martin as his pick, with RTX as a second choice.
He weighs the faster-growing but pricier European names (Leonardo, Thales, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall), runs through the main defence ETF options, and flags the risks: budgets are politics, and forward orders still have to convert.
Also covered: a post-IPO look at Bending Spoons, SK Hynix's planned $28bn Nasdaq listing and the memory trade, and the Q2 review of the Equity Coverage AI project — 26 names, 22 buys and one sell.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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This week's WorldWideMarkets is a tour of cheap stocks that each come with a question mark.
Simon Brown looks at Microsoft, where a forward PE of around 20 against a mean of 33 makes it look inexpensive — except free cash flow has slipped back to 2021 levels as AI and data-centre capex ramps. He revisits Afrimat, a high-quality cyclical now trading near 10-year lows, and digs into Bending Spoons, the Italian roll-up of legacy tech brands like Evernote, WeTransfer and AOL heading to the NASDAQ under code BSP.
He also covers Naspers' latest results, the discount embedded in the Naspers-Prosus-Tencent chain, and why petrol gets a sizeable cut as Brent drops into the low 70s. Topics: Microsoft, Afrimat, Brent oil, Bending Spoons IPO, Naspers, Prosus, Tencent, Takealot.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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MercadoLibre is down 40% for the year, and Simon Brown argues the market is mispricing it as a retailer while ignoring the fintech engine — Mercado Pago — that is becoming Latin America's biggest digital bank. Total payment volume now exceeds gross merchandise volume, even as management deliberately halves operating margins to grab market share.
This week also marks the death of former Fed chair Alan Greenspan at 100, a look at SpaceX's volatile listing that still sits above its IPO price, South African inflation cooling to 4.5% with petrol relief on the way, the first FOMC meeting with Jerome Powell no longer chair, and why Brent crude has fallen back to pre-conflict levels despite a major supply scare.
Topics: MercadoLibre, MELI, Amazon, SpaceX, Alan Greenspan, FOMC, SA inflation, Brent oil, offshore income.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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A US–Iran cessation of hostilities, due to be signed Friday, has collapsed the oil price, firmed the rand back toward 16.00 and let gold hold key support — and Simon Brown argues markets are heading back to where they sat in late February, just with fewer rate cuts on the table.
This episode also unpacks the most hyped IPO in history opening softer than expected, South African inflation surprising lower at 4.5% with chunky petrol and diesel cuts due in July, a no-change FOMC meeting, and a busy stocks-on-the-move list.
Topics: US–Iran ceasefire, oil, rand, gold, emerging markets, SA inflation and fuel prices, FOMC, the big tech IPO, Clicks, Discovery, Bidcorp, Outsurance, Growthpoint, MTN and Mondi.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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The World Cup kicks off Thursday — so which stocks actually win?
Simon Brown ran a data-driven hunt and the answer is counter-intuitive: skip the obvious bets. His own scrape of stadium-adjacent hotels found accommodation available everywhere, with 84 of 104 games unsold, so hoteliers have no pricing power and the retail uplift is marginal. The real edge sits with the kit makers — Adidas and Nike both screen cheap against analyst targets — and the betting operators, Sun International and NYSE-listed Super Group. He also looks at JSE newcomer Canal+ and the free-streaming threat from SABC Plus.
Plus: three mega IPOs landing at once (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) and the $160bn funding crunch behind Micron's 16% drop, and a bleak read on the PGM miners.
Topics: World Cup stocks, Adidas, Nike, Canal+, Sun International, Super Group, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, PGMs.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Simon Brown unpacks a US personal savings rate of just 2.6% — one of the lowest on record — and why it matters more as a fragility gauge than a crash signal.
He covers the collapsed Iran deal and its effect on oil and South African fuel prices, the SARB's prime rate hike to 10.5% and why he thinks the MPC has it wrong, and the near-10% surge in Naspers and Prosus on news that WeChat is putting AI at the centre of its app.
Plus SPAR's brutal trading update, the year-to-date scoreboard with South Korea up 123%, Afrimat's Nersa win, Dell's near four-bagger, and why Simon keeps buying Clicks at two-year lows.
Topics: US savings rate, Iran and oil, SARB rates, Naspers, Prosus, Tencent, SPAR, food retail, South Korea, Dell, Clicks. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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SpaceX comes to market on 12 June at a $1.75 trillion valuation — 94 times sales, where Amazon trades at four. Simon walks through where to actually buy it (Robinhood, Charles Schwab, Fidelity), why xAI is a rounding error in the AI race, and why Tesla is likely to be rolled into SpaceX within two to three years.
Plus the Dow Jones turns 130, Moody's lifts South Africa's outlook from stable to positive, Balwin delists at below NAV with Calgro M3* potentially next, and stocks on the move including Shoprite*, AB InBev, Impala Platinum, and Gold Fields.
Topics: SpaceX IPO, Dow Jones, Moody's, Balwin delisting, Calgro M3, Canal Plus, Pope Leo XIV on AI, oil, Shoprite, AB InBev, Implats, Gold Fields, Anglo Gold Ashanti.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Global bond yields are spiking to multi-decade highs across the US, UK and Japan, and Simon Brown argues this looks a lot like the emerging market debt crises markets usually call doom and gloom.
He unpacks the Pick n Pay sell-down of Boxer shares, the Eastern Cape floods threatening the citrus crop, and the absurd Cerebras IPO trading at 150 times sales.
Plus an update on JustOneLap's institutional-grade research project, results from Calgro M3, WeBuyCars and Astral, the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026, and three stocks on the move: British American Tobacco, BHP Group and Clicks.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Boxer just posted ShopRite-level operating margins — so why is Pick & Pay, which owns 65% of it, trading at an implied negative enterprise value?
Simon Brown unpacks the R10bn valuation paradox and whether it's a genuine opportunity.
He also walks through his new AI-powered research workflow, using Claude and ChatGPT to produce and fact-check full initiating coverage reports on Balwin Properties and Raubex.
Plus: gold miners Goldfields and AngloGold Ashanti on costs, Meta at its cheapest forward PE since 2022, and Open Router token data that shows xAI running a distant fourth behind Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Hyperscaler results from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet produced numbers that almost don't seem real — combined remaining performance obligations of $1.46 trillion and Q1 capex of $112 billion.
Simon unpacks where that money is going, why copper is the quiet beneficiary, and which JSE stocks give exposure.
Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $380 billion in cash, roughly 38% of its market cap — a meaningful drag while US markets sit at highs.
The memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron — are choosing pricing power over capacity, with SK Hynix on a forward PE of 4.5.
Closer to home, the fuel price hike lands tomorrow with Brent back at $114, putting fragile consumer stocks under pressure. Plus an update on using AI for institutional-grade research and the upcoming JustOneLap events.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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US markets hit all-time highs this week even as $166 billion in Trump tariff refunds start processing — a windfall for retailers, but consumers who paid inflated prices at the till won't see a cent back.
Tim Cook is stepping down at Apple with John Ternus taking over, Amazon is spending $11.57 billion to buy Globalstar and build a Starlink rival, and Netflix delivered Q1 results with a $2.8 billion Warner break fee buried in the numbers.
Simon also breaks down the Fed Chair nomination battle, why market recoveries are getting faster, and the sixth anniversary of the day WTI oil went negative.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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US results season opens with Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson both beating expectations — but the more interesting story is what those results don't show yet: the full impact of Middle East conflict and Trump's drug pricing pressure.
Simon also unpacks South Africa's looming fuel crisis and makes the economic case for working from home, a new 100% offshore ETF listing on the JSE from ETFSA, and an ASP Isotopes update for those holding a speculative position.
FNB's FCA-mandated R11.9bn provision for undisclosed UK vehicle finance commissions gets a full breakdown, as does the nuanced reality of the Straits of Hormuz "blockade" — it has T's and C's.
Plus a long-overdue Bitcoin check-in. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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South African consumer stocks have been hammered.
In Episode 673 of WorldWideMarkets, Simon Brown works through the JSE's food and clothing retailers — Shoprite, Boxer, Pick n Pay, SPAR, Pepkor, Foschini Group, Mr. Price, Lewis, and Woolworths — asking where genuine value has emerged and where cheap simply means broken.
He also sets the macro scene with Trump's Wednesday deadline on Iran peace talks and what a Straits of Hormuz transit fee would mean for oil prices and inflation.
Stock by stock: valuations, analyst targets, dividend yields, and Simon's honest take on what he holds and why.
Topics covered: JSE retail sector, food retailers, clothing retailers, Iran oil risk, consumer inflation, SA discretionary spending.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Simon reviews six listed space stocks ahead of the expected SpaceX IPO, which could debut above $2 trillion as early as June. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace, Planet Labs and Spire Global each get a SWOT breakdown, with the Procure Space ETF (UFO) as a diversified alternative. On the local front, the JSE Top 40 just posted its worst month since September 2008, falling roughly 10 percent from all-time highs. A massive petrol price increase takes effect at midnight. Simon discusses investing into a falling market, revisits the Algorithm Holdings AI hype collapse, and explains why CrowdStrike's CEO selling stock is not worth losing sleep over. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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WorldWideMarkets episode 671 covers the return of US tariffs through Section 301 investigations targeting South Africa and 60 other countries — with no rate ceiling and no court precedent to stop them.
Simon unpacks the Iran war's tentative ceasefire talks, why Goldman Sachs revised its Brent forecast to $85, and what happens to oil and interest rates if the conflict drags on.
Monday's sharp gold selloff gets a post-mortem: leveraged FOMO unwinds, Turkey tapping reserves, and profit-taking after a year of doubling.
Two stock ideas round out the episode: Rocket Lab (RKLB) for pure-play space exposure and Franco Nevada (FNV) as a low-risk gold streaming alternative to miners.
Plus the MPC rate decision preview and a quick plug for the new AI in the Wild column.
WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Worldwide Markets — Episode 680 | 18 March 2026 Powered by Standard Bank, Global Markets, Retail and Shyft
⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming Petrol 95 up ~R4.50/litre and diesel up ~R7.50/litre from the first Wednesday in April. On a 50-litre tank that's R200+ for petrol and close to R400 for diesel. Fill up before April if you can.
🛢️ Oil & The Iran War Brent holding above $100/barrel (currently ~$103.50) — briefly dipping to $99.80 on Monday before recovering. Markets are pricing in a short war. Some vessels — largely Iranian-linked ships — are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have cut production. Strategic oil reserves are being released globally.
📉 Market Reactions Drops from the start of the war's close: China -1%, US -4%, UK -5%, Europe -6%, India -8%, Japan -9%, South Korea -12%, UAE -15%, SA -~10%. The rand at R16.72, SA 10-year bond yield has surged from below 8% to 8.9% — a massive move.
🌍 Emerging Market Risks A deep dive into countries with high USD-denominated debt and heavy oil imports. The most vulnerable: Mozambique (38% USD debt), Ghana (28%), Egypt (27%), Sri Lanka (26%), Pakistan (22%). Egypt is the only one in the MSCI EM Index — at a 0.03% weighting — so the direct ETF risk is limited. But Egypt and Pakistan carry real standalone risk.
🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices Urea (a byproduct of LNG) is largely sourced from the UAE — and it's not moving right now. Fertilizer prices are spiking. Combined with diesel costs, food price inflation is coming — just with a lag. Casey Sprake (AG Capital) maps the timeline: transport 1–3 months, food 1–3 months, broader CPI 4 months, electricity up to a year.
🛒 Mr. Price* Update The investor presentation on the German fashion retailer acquisition landed today. Stock was up ~2.5% earlier but has since retreated into the red — not an aggressive selloff, with support just below R170.
📊 Results Roundup
AVI — solid numbers, strong margin protection, fashion had a surprisingly good December Weaver Fintech (formerly HomeChoice) — buy-now-pay-later funnel leading into unsecured credit and insurance; majority female customer base; a neat business model Absa — not bad Standard Bank — exceptional cost discipline Optasia* — maiden results, trading around listing price of ~R19, P/E ~30x but expected to grow at ~30%, PEG ~1💻 SaaS Check-in The "SaaS is dead" debate continues. Mass layoffs (e.g. Block shedding ~4,000 staff) mean lost per-seat licences and potential revenue pressure. Worth watching, but tech hiring data still skews net positive for now.
🏦 Fed Chair Watch Trump's nominee Kevin Walsh hasn't been sent to the Senate yet — possibly compliance issues (Walsh's spouse is a billionaire). Senator Tillis (R) says he won't vote for any Fed chair nominee until charges against Jerome Powell are dropped. Jerome Powell's term ends end of May. Outcome unclear.
🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes Non-alcoholic beer, hummus, croissants, motorhomes and international rail fares are being added. Wine categories merged. Vegetables better represented. February data drops 25 March.
🤖 AI in the Wild Simon shares a cautionary Claude Opus 4.6 experience — building a detailed initiation report on ADvTech* worked well in parts, but the final consolidation hit rate limits, produced a corrupted document, and then delivered a garbled output with wrong JSE codes and incorrect founder attribution. A reminder that very long context windows can degrade LLM output quality.
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
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🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 669
📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown
🧭 Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFTWith geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain.
Simon's strategy right now?
🧘 Do nothing.
Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold.
🛢️ Oil Shock: From $60 to $120Oil has been incredibly volatile.
📊 Recent moves
Early January: ~$60 Monday spike: ~$120 Tuesday: briefly below $90 Current level: ~$91That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date.
The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
🚢 Shipping traffic
Normal flow: ~20 million barrels/day Last Wednesday: 0 barrels Monday: ~20% of normalOil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile.
⛽ What This Means for South AfricaHigher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices.
💸 Earlier estimates suggested:
Petrol: +R5.40 Diesel: +R10After oil pulled back slightly:
Petrol increase may be ~R3 Diesel ~R5Still extremely painful for the economy.
📈 Inflation & Interest RatesOil shocks ripple through inflation.
📊 Rule of thumb:
Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation.With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean:
➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation
For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again.
🏦 Rate Cuts Are Off the TableUpcoming meetings:
🇺🇸 Fed decision: 18 March 🇿🇦 SARB MPC: 26 MarchPreviously expected: rate cuts.
Now?
❌ Cuts unlikely
Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs.
⚔️ The War QuestionMarkets are asking one thing:
How long does this conflict last?
Current signals:
Iran says it won't capitulate US and Israel still active UAE attacks have slowedOne possible constraint: missile inventories.
Iran's cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems.
At some point, stocks run out.
🛢️ G7 Emergency Oil PlanThe G7 strategic reserves may be tapped.
📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels
Possible release:
➡️ 300–400 million barrels
This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions.
That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired.
📉 Best vs Worst Oil Scenarios Best Case✔ Conflict ends within weeks
Worst Case
✔ Strategic reserves released
✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s🔥 War escalates
🔥 Shipping disruptions persist
🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy.
🤖 New Structured Product: AI & Big Data Auto CallStandard Bank has launched a new structured product.
📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call
Key features:
💰 Return: 14% per year
🧠 Index Constituents
📅 Term: Up to 5 years
🔁 Auto-call: Annual payout if index is flat or positive
💵 Currency: Rand
📉 Capital protection: Up to 30% downside buffer at maturity
📥 Minimum investment: R25,000The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index.
Top holdings include:
Nvidia Palantir Snowflake AMD Broadcom SoundHound AI Kingsoft Cloud BigBear.ai DataVault ZenitechTotal: 30 companies in the index.
🇿🇦 SA GDP: Small Steps ForwardSouth Africa released Q4 GDP.
📊 Q4 2025: +0.4%
Full-year growth:
2024: 0.5% 2025: 1.1%Not amazing, but improving.
Forecast for 2026:
📈 1.6% – 1.8%
If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person.
🎬 Paramount Buying Warner Bros (Again…)The media industry continues consolidating.
Deal overview:
💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery
📦 Price: ~$100 billionNetflix initially pursued the deal but walked away.
💵 Result:
Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee Its stock jumped ~15% 🇨🇳 Tencent Joins the DealNew twist:
Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition.
For South African investors:
Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount.
Yes… it's complicated.
🎥 Why Simon Thinks This Is a Bad IdeaThe concerns:
📉 Traditional media is declining
🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content
🏛️ Politics may influence the dealWarner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster.
Simon's take:
This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price.
🕒 Market Hours ChangeThe US switched to daylight savings.
New trading times for South Africa:
📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30)
✈️ Personal NoteSimon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew's 18th birthday.
Time flies.
✔ Key Takeaway
Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices.
Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
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⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰
This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it.
Key Changes:
📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000 🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m 💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%) 🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m 🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k 🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000 🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3mAfter years of "tax by stealth," this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses.
💡 Lump Sum vs Monthly Tax-Free?Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests:
✅ Lump sum at the start of the tax year typically outperforms. 📊 But in volatile markets, patience may offer better entry points.Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn't deployed it yet 👀
💻 Dell Delivers 🚀Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%.
Entry around $118 Now trading near $153 AI infrastructure demand driving upside Big capex spend from hyperscalers boosting the thesisUS markets don't play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively.
🌍 Oil Shock: War & Market Volatility 🛢️🔥The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically.
Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center.
Key Developments:
⚠️ Reports of navigation threats in the Strait of Hormuz 🚢 Tankers rerouting / suspending activity 🛢️ Brent crude jumped from $72 → $83+ 💸 Rand weakened to 16.36 📉 JSE down over 4%About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption:
🚗 Pushes fuel prices higher 📈 Risks inflation spikes 🏦 Puts rate cuts at risk (MPC meeting: 26 March) 🌍 Raises global recession concerns Possible Scenarios: Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80 Prolonged tension → Oil $90+ Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession riskSouth Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk.
📌 Key message: Don't panic. Stay long-term focused.
🚗 Vehicle Sales: Still Surging 🚙📊February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again:
🚘 Total sales: 53,000 (vs ~48,000 last year) 📈 Local sales up 11% 📉 Exports down 28% 📊 Year-to-date sales up nearly 10%Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share.
Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient.
🤖 AI + Investing: Deep-Dive into SaaS 📈Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research.
SaaS Sell-Off = Opportunity?Basket explored:
Salesforce Adobe Intuit ServiceNow Workday DatadogPreferred picks:
✅ Salesforce
✅ Adobe
✅ IntuitAI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week's pricing).
Key insight:
🎯 Final Thoughts
Replacing enterprise software isn't about code — it's about retraining millions of users.Markets are volatile.
War introduces uncertainty.
Oil is the key risk variable.But:
🧠 Stay rational ⏳ Stay long term 💰 Deploy capital thoughtfully 🚫 Don't panicIf you've got time on your side — don't stress your portfolio.
See you next week 👋
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
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This special broadcast is the recording of the Budget Panel 2026 with AJM, Baker Tilly Greenwoods, and FNB.
Simon Brown hosts and his guests are;
The Hon Ashor Sarupen Dep Fin Minister Mamello Matikinca chief economist at FNB Dr Christo Wiese – business man Dr Albertus Marais – Partner AJM -
🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 667
📅 25 February 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft
⚡ Eskom: 280 Days Without Load Shedding South Africa has now reached 280 days without load shedding. Standard Bank's electricity tracker report highlights that the last significant outages were 26 hours across April and May 2025, taking the effective streak back to 26 March 2024. After 17 years of load shedding since 2008, the energy availability factor and other key metrics are looking dramatically better. Credit goes to Eskom's operational improvements, industrial-scale solar and wind investment, and households with rooftop solar installations. 🇺🇸 Trump's Tariff Chaos: Supreme Court Ruling & What Comes NextThe ruling: The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose tariffs, finding no international emergency existed. This is a significant legal defeat.
The refund problem: Roughly $150–170 billion in tariffs have been collected. Companies like Walmart and Costco will want that money back, since the Supreme Court has effectively declared these tariffs illegal. Chief Justice Roberts acknowledged the refund process will be "messy" — an understatement.
Trump's new move: On Friday evening, Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, signing an executive order imposing a flat 10% tariff on all countries (with the law allowing up to 15%). This is a notable reduction for South Africa, which was previously on 30%. However, this only runs for 150 days, expiring mid-July.
Other legal avenues Trump could pursue:
Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974): Used against China in his first term, but requires formal investigations and findings — too slow for Trump's style.
Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930): Allows up to 50% tariffs without investigation, has never been used, and would almost certainly face court challenges.
The bottom line: Tariffs aren't going away. Trump views them as a political weapon and a negotiating stick. He'll keep finding new legislative tools to wield them. Around a dozen trade deals have been signed under the "90 deals in 90 days" framework, though countries that signed early (like the UK at ~10%) may feel they overpaid.
📢 Upcoming Event: Protecting Your Portfolio & Navigating Scams🗓️ 24 March | 11:00 AM | Webcast with 1nvest
First in a series covering protecting your portfolio and navigating scams, with social media red flags guidance from Lungeli at 1nvest, plus a conversation with 1nvest's compliance officer on what financial advice looks like (and what it doesn't). Future webcasts will cover emerging markets vs tech vs developed markets, income investing, and commodities.
👉 More info and booking at **JustOneLap.com/events**
💻 SaaS Stocks Under Pressure: Is Vibe Coding Really the Threat?Software-as-a-service stocks have been hammered on fears that "vibe coding" (using AI tools to build software) could replace platforms like Salesforce. Simon is sceptical — replacing the software is perhaps 10% of the challenge. The real difficulty is retraining tens of thousands of staff, migrating data without losses, and managing a massive transition process.
Goldman Sachs' SOHO Index shows capital-heavy stocks (manufacturers, farmers) up nearly 40% since June 2025, while capital-light stocks (Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet) have been largely flat — a notable divergence.
IBM dropped ~10% on news that Anthropic's Claude Code can convert COBOL to modern languages, but Simon remains cautious about overhyping AI capabilities. He's currently reviewing a 20-page AI-generated SaaS research report from Claude Opus 4.6 and will report back next week.
💰 Budget 2026 PreviewWhat to expect:
Fiscal drag relief is likely, funded by extra revenue from precious metals booms (higher corporate tax and dividend tax from gold and PGM miners) and SARS's clampdown on arrears (~R20 billion recovered).
Tax-free savings annual limit could increase from R36,000 — possibly to R40,000 or even R60,000 (per Nireena Fissa of ETFSA, since 60,000 divides neatly by 12). This costs Treasury very little in the short term since the big capital gains tax hit is years away.
Reg 28 changes: Unlikely — these would cost Treasury money immediately.
Capital gains exclusion (R40,000): Unlikely to change despite being unchanged for over a decade — another stealth tax.
Interest exemptions: No changes expected.
Simon's tax tip: He's been selling down long-held ETF positions (originally ITRIX, now Cygnia World) to use the R40,000 annual CGT exclusion, then reinvesting into a different ETF with a better total expense ratio. Important: don't sell and rebuy the same instrument immediately — SARS treats that as "washing."
Overall expectation: A boring budget, which is exactly what markets want.
📊 Commodities Check-InPalladium 🔩 Broke through $1,100 and $1,200 early last year, pulled back to $1,350 late in 2025, now consolidating around $1,617–$1,700. Support sits at the $1,650–$1,700 level. Not going to the moon, but holding at higher levels — which is what matters.
Platinum 🪙 Broke $1,000 in June, then $1,250 in July. Has since consolidated around the $2,000–$2,150 range, well off the $2,800 high but maintaining higher support levels. Results from Sibanye-Stillwater, Impala Platinum, and Northam confirm the improved earnings picture.
Gold Currently at $5,153 and running hard. Simon admits gold has proved him wrong — after January's volatile drop of nearly $1,000 from the $5,600 high to the Monday low, he expected consolidation around $4,500 or even $4,000. Instead, gold consolidated around $5,000 and has resumed its rally. His advice for those who feel they've "missed" the run: scale in gradually, buying a third at current prices and adding on dips or at intervals.
Brent Crude Oil Had been under pressure until the US detained the president of Venezuela (heavy, sour crude — less critical but still impactful). Oil briefly dipped below $60 but has since recovered. The $70–$71.50 level is important resistance; a break above targets $80 and then mid-$80s. Looks like a short-term blip for now — hopefully not the start of a longer trend.
💱 Rand/Dollar Update The rand is trading around R16.02 to the dollar, with the trend firmly toward a weaker dollar. Foreigners have been net buyers of South African bonds, and the US dollar index continues to show weakness — something Trump actively wants. If the dollar loses another 7–8%, that could push the rand into the mid-R14s. Sounds dramatic, but as Simon puts it: "Don't fight the rand."
🎙️ Next week:Budget reaction + AI SaaS research report review
Thanks for listening — look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too. ✌️
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
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