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Keith discusses his journey from an entitlement mentality to realizing the importance of wealth creation through real estate investing and shares the real estate shockwave that nobody is talking about.
We are also joined by Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group, as she explains the differences between owner-occupied and investor mortgage loans.
Hear about the ease of entering real estate investing with no formal qualifications or high income required.
Learn the concept of demographic shockwaves and how the aging population will influence housing demand in the future.
How to ethically use other people's money to build wealth for yourself before you even own a property.
Learn about the key differences between owner-occupied mortgage loans and investor mortgage loans, particularly the use of rental income in qualification.
Resources:
RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE
or e-mail: [email protected]
Show Notes:
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Complete episode transcript:
Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai
Keith Weinhold 00:01
Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I'll discuss when I was an employee with a scarcity mindset, the real estate shock wave coming that no one's talking about, then, how you can ethically use other people's money to build wealth for yourself before you even own a property today, on get rich education.
00:24
Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com
Corey Coates 01:09
You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold 01:25
welcome to GRE from Springfield Ohio to Springfield, Missouri and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. It's great to have you back for another week, and I genuinely appreciate your listenership, and I am grateful to have such a large audience. I've got to tell you, admittedly, coming out of college and in my first couple full time jobs, I wasn't always a good employee. I guess I had somewhat of an entitlement mentality. I'm not sure where that came from. I don't know that I can blame anyone else on planning it inside me. I don't know where I got this notion. It sure wasn't from my parents, but I kind of felt like somebody owed me a job just because I have a college degree and I'm good at showing up on time, yeah, like, I'm just a good representative for your company. I mean, now I can see that no one owed me a doggone thing. In fact, I owed my employer value. An employer actually takes a big risk on you when they hire you, paying you to train you until you're productive there. I mean, the hiring process itself is even expensive. Well, though I felt like someone owed me a job just out of college, somewhat Oppositely, I never expected any sort of high income at all, and I had quite a modest income in my first couple years out of college, just like a lot of recent college grads do, until it grew into something more. But my humble geography degree, it conditioned me to think lower income. I knew that going to college in Pennsylvania for geography in what interested me, I mean, that's what I went with, what interested me not what I could make money in well, then I couldn't find a job in my geography field at all. No one would really pay me to describe Asia's mountain ranges to them. So what I ended up doing is working under engineers at a construction and engineering firm, a few of them, one engineering firm really liked me and designated me as their new marketing person. Of all things, they wanted me to call prospective clients on the phone and meet them cold in person, because they just thought somehow, when they met me, that I could win new business for the engineering firm, just I guess, based on how I communicated with other people at other engineering companies, even though I couldn't even talk the language of engineering. Well, anyway, these disciplines engineering, and really it was construction inspection that I did for a while. You know, that stuff, even the marketing stuff, it just didn't fill my soul. And you must have felt this way at your job before. If you don't feel it perpetually, you aren't aligned with your purpose on this earth, and you're spending so many of your faculties and so much of your waking conscious life at that job. Well, motivation to escape that is what got me reading about wealth mindset and real estate investing. Since anyone can do it, no degree needed, no certification, zero formal qualification. And now I think I mentioned this to you before, but it's worth bringing up here again, a turning point is when I read one life changing sentence, just one little what is it? A. Five word sentence in a rich dad book, that pivotal paradigm shifting, course correcting sentence was, being wealthy is a choice. And when I first read being wealthy is a choice, I just didn't believe it. I thought that Robert Kiyosaki, the author, was wrong. Well now I know that he was right. I had thought that being rich is unobtainable. You had to be born into it, so unless you won the lottery, you can't achieve more than middle class. Well, I was wrong about that. Now I can't really say something like, oh, well, a college professor said that rich people are bad or, you know, I don't have that story. I can't blame anyone else for growing up with a limited, scarcity mindset, really, other than myself in the context that was created around me. I mean, growing up in Pennsylvania, I just knew that the carts family and the domileskeys, they had more than us. And that's just the way it would always be. It's sort of preordained, and other families had less than us, and these family trajectories were just cast in stone as to how it had to be. But the good news is that it's not, and this is still what makes America great, the fact that it takes zero formal training, zero risk parents, and not even a high salary for you to do something like get a three and a half percent down payment loan for owner occupied FHA fourplex or 20% down for a single family rental that produces income from day one in The Southeast or Midwest, you can plant that seed that get other people's money working for you seed in just that way, even if you're interested in something as unprofitable as geography. Now, a huge reason that people disparage the wealthy is rooted in jealousy and envy, and that is not good. There's no goodness in those emotions, and that is because people don't think it's obtainable for them. It's obtainable for almost anybody. Learning that it is within your reach that completely breaks down your resentment of the rich. Yes, indeed, being wealthy is a choice. Well, people are obtaining wealth in today's real estate market. Here, Redfin reported that through the latest quarter ended real estate investors bought fully one in four of the nation's most affordable homes. That's up 3% year over year. And as Redfin puts it, it's a sign that investor activity is stabilizing, and as homeownership remains out of reach for many Americans, real estate investors are coming out of hibernation to take advantage of robust demand from renters. So investors are buying a greater proportion of affordable homes, some of them through our marketplace, GRE marketplace. Now over the long term, let's think about how US housing is going to be positioned for sustainable demand. Demography is destiny. That's a quote attributed to 19th century philosopher Auguste coon Tay, it means that the size and structure of a population will influence its future. So then all we need to do is track the age of a population over time to sharpen and give clarity to a forecast. It is axiomatic that in 10 years, a 25 year old will be 35 No kidding. Well, what's important about the age of 35 is that is the average age of today's first time homebuyer. It's between 35 and 36 All right. Well, the US is peak birth year occurred in 2007 we know that just look at demographics. Well, then add 35 to it. Add 35 years to 2007 This means that, on average, they will buy their first home in the early 2040s a lot of people are going to be forming their first household, whether it's rent or buy around the year 2040, I mean, the peak in all of American history, a lot more people will need homes. In fact, more than 13,000 Americans are turning age 35 every single day for the foreseeable future for more than a decade. This year is the first year where we've ever had over 13,000 Americans turning 35 every single day. And that is projected to continue to happen every single year through 2035 and that's as late as the Census Bureau projection that I have goes on. On that stat this baked in demographic housing demand. Hey, if we don't get serious about building more housing fast, and it's likely that we won't, this will be analogous to a demographic shock wave that hits the housing market. The population aging into homeownership is projected to exceed the population aging out, as in the death rate for a long time. This will pump housing demand, and that's not all. I've only talked domestically so far. This doesn't even account for additional demand from immigration. And immigrants tend to be younger and are renters for a long duration, or just forever. On top of immigration, the average number of people per household is falling as well. In 1960 3.3, people live per household in 1990 it was down to 2.6 by 2023 it was down to 2.5 this means that more housing is required just in order to shelter the same population. But of course, the population won't stay static. So to keep piling on with the housing demand here, the overall US population is projected to grow as well, from 342 million today to 383 million in 30 years. That's per the CBO. The demographics for senior housing are even more bullish. And of course, when I use the word bullish like this, this bullish sentiment that's from the investor side. If you're looking to buy your first home or find a place to rent, this is all more discouraging than perhaps all of our perpetual struggles to live a balanced life or lose weight. This baked into the cake. Demand is almost perfectly predictable, and it's of seismic importance to the real estate market. And yet, despite that fact, you know, more investors curiously fixate for month after month on something like the Fed's interest rate decision or the next jobs report. I mean, this is both harder to predict and way less significant than the sustainable demographic demand for rental housing that you got right there. So really, to sum up, this segment demographics reveal that housing demand should stay high for decades, long term, then you should expect higher home prices, higher occupancy rates and higher rents. And you can benefit by owning many rental properties. And our guest and I are about to discuss how you can do exactly that own many rental properties, and how to do it efficiently with less cash out of your pocket, including how you can start using other people's money before you even own a property when you're trying to qualify for a loan on a rental property, in some cases, you can Use a portion of the tenant's rent income toward your qualification income. Let's talk with this week's guest. There's one place that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation that's time for a big welcome back to their president, Caeli Ridge.
Caeli Ridge 13:23
Keith Weinhold, my friend, thank you for having me happy to be here, sir.
Keith Weinhold 13:26
Oh, it's so good to have you here. You're a longtime friend of the show and so many of our listeners that you've helped originate investor mortgage loans. Caeli leads Ridge lending group. They're an investor centric lender. She does such a good concise job of explaining specifically what real estate investors need to know in optimizing your loan positions. In fact, on a previous episode, she once broke down every single line of a closing disclosure form for us one by one, detailing each individual closing cost and prepaid item and in there, besides being specific income property loan experts, they're really thorough and helpful that way. Well, Caeli, tell us about the key differences between owner occupied mortgage loans for buying a primary residence and investor mortgage loans for a rental property.
Caeli Ridge 14:17
The key things are that on a rental property, probably the biggest difference is going to be that for a rental property, there's additional incomes that potentially we get to use to help offset that new monthly liability, aka the mortgage payment, p, i, t i, principal, interest, tax and insurance, we have access to income potentially to help offset that. So in the debt to income ratio category, it can be a huge boon or a huge benefit, depending on what the individual's qualifications are. Additionally, in that same theme, we're not just confined to a conventional Fannie Freddie loan for investors. We have things like the DSCR debt service coverage ratio that you would not be able to apply to a primary residence, but also allows for income to help identify whether the property qualifies for financing.
Keith Weinhold 15:04
So for prospective investor borrower is wondering whether we'll have enough income to qualify for that property or not. Is it a certain percentage of the tenants rent income that is used in the investor borrowers qualification income?
Caeli Ridge 15:19
absolutely, so conventional full doc mortgages they are going to receive in the acquisition year formula, because there's two formulas that will be used in underwriting. One is called the acquisition year. The other one is called the Schedule E I'll focus on the acquisition year. This is applicable from the date that they acquire the property and until that tax year's Federal tax return is filed. I needed to find up to in a minute they get up to 75% of the gross rents minus the proposed p, i, t, I, principal, interest, tax and insurance. Now I say up to because it depends on two primary criteria that the borrower must possess in order to get the full 75% so think about it this way. There's three buckets. Okay, the first bucket gets the full 75% of whatever the gross rents are. The easy math example that I give, let's say that the gross rents are $1,000 a month. The PI ti proposed payment is 500 a month. If they're in bucket number one, and they get the full 75% of 1000 they have 750 bucks, right? And from that they're going to subtract out the $500 of mortgage payment. In that example, it would leave them with a gain positive 250 so that individual came to us with a debt to income ratio of x as a result of purchasing this investment property, their DTI is going to go down because they're $250 richer monthly. So 75% is the maximum you can use in the acquisition year. That individual in that bucket has to demonstrate two things. One, they have a primary housing expense, whether that's a mortgage or they rent, either is fine. And then second, they need to be able to demonstrate that they can they've had 12 months of history in owning investment property. So if they have both of those two things, they get the full 75 if they have one or the other, they're in bucket number two, which gives us an offset. They cannot have the full 75% they don't get the full gain, but I can offset. So going back to my example, using $1,000 of income and $500 of mortgage payment, they can't have the 250 gain, but I can give them up to 500 making that a zero, right? It's covered completely the mortgage payment. It's not increased any debt or anything in the example. So DTI would stay exactly the same as where they began, when we started. And then finally, bucket number three would mean that individuals that have neither of those two things, no primary they live rent free, no primary house expense, and they do not have 12 months demonstrated history currently, of being an investor. They get zero of the rental income, so they've got to support the full new payment within their DTI and keep it within that 50% threshold. So that was a long explanation to the question, but I think that that pretty much covers it.
Keith Weinhold 17:56
Now, That's really helpful. Okay, that can help the borrower's debt to income ratio. I guess a lot of cases is going to be helping it out by a small amount. What if, say that investors buying a new build rental property and there is no tenant, hence no rent income there yet.
Caeli Ridge 18:11
I'm so glad you asked. So on a subject property basis, that is the property in which they're purchasing at the moment in time. It's called the subject property. Those properties do not need to be tenant occupied. We can use assumptive rental income from the appraisal on a rental property that will come with some additional forms. It's called a 1007, it's just the number on the page. Those are rental income comps. The appraiser has given us an average of what those rents are going to be, and that's what we're going to use the 75% calculation on.
Keith Weinhold 18:41
Okay, that's really good to know new build or resale rental property, that's going to work the same with either one there. Now I know oftentimes that one wants to qualify. When we look at non order occupied properties, rental properties with conventional conforming loans from Fannie or Freddie, typically, one puts 20% down on those properties we've talked before. I think one can put as little as 15% down, although they would have PMI in that case, or alternatively, rather than putting 20% down, last time I checked, they could put 25% down and get a lower interest rate. So can you talk to us about the interplay of the percent down payment for rental property.
Caeli Ridge 19:21
I'll start by saying, more often than not, when you do the math the capital expenditure, or in this case, the difference between 5% down 80 versus 75% divided by the monthly payment difference, you're going to find that the leverage is going to outperform the higher 80% will outperform the lower 75% but absolutely, to your point, the payment is going to be less for two reasons. At the 75% level, the interest rate will be lower because you've got more skin in the game. The interest rate, loan level, price adjustment for 75% is going to be more attractive than it will be at 20% down. So the rate will be lower. And of course. The loan amount is lower, so both of those combined characteristics are going to create better cash flow, it's true, and a lower monthly payment. However, the math that I always want to promote, that people are doing is looking at it side by side, all you have to do, and it's actually much easier than people, I think, assume. So you figure out the capital expenditure difference. Let's just use 100 grand, okay, because his math is simple. So you've got $5,000 in additional capital that you'd be bringing to the table for the 75% option, right? Versus retaining the five grand, the payment difference is 50 bucks a month. Okay? Whatever the number is, all you're going to do is take the five grand and divide that by the payment difference, and that will give the individual the number of months it takes them to recapture that capital for the savings. Generally, my opinion, per an investment property is that if that number is in excess of 36 months, it's going to take you over 30 or three years to recapture that capital versus the savings. I'd keep my money because I can do one of a few things with it. If I chose to, I could cash flow the 50 bucks myself every month for 100 months, if that was the math. Or I could apply that five grand and use it with some other monies, perhaps, and buy another investment property, or put it in different investment asset class that would provide a return so more often than not, when they do that math, my belief is, when I do it, I'd say even 95% of the time, the higher the leverage is going to be, the better return numbers.
Keith Weinhold 21:27
We're philosophically aligned that way. We're leveraged proponents here, typically the smaller down payment, 20% is going to be better for you long term than 25% even though you'll get a somewhat lower interest rate on a rental property, putting 25% down rather than 20% when we pull back, we look at the interest rate difference between an owner occupied property and a rental property. What is the spread between the interest rate? Of course, you're going to pay higher interest rate on a rental property because it's a lot less likely that the borrower is going to walk away from their own home than they would a rental property.
Caeli Ridge 22:02
exactly and this is a great segue into those LLPAs that I always like that we spend some time talking about. So llpa, loan level, price adjustment. So for the GRE listeners, this is a more complicated concept, so I'm going to try and quickly break it down. Keith loves it when I get so wordy. So llpa is a positive or a negative number that associates with the individual characteristics of the loan transaction. So one of those characteristics, obviously, is occupancy. The loan level price adjustment for a primary residence versus an investment property is quite different, and for the reasons exactly that you described, there's a lot less risk in a primary then there will be in a rental. Because if an individual needs to choose between defaulting on where they live and an investment property, if it came down to that, obviously they're going to maintain, yeah, so they got to choose. So skin in the game, risk, etc, generally speaking. And there's all those other variables too, credit score, loan size, loan to value, property type, purchase versus refi, those are all unique llpas That will have their own unique number. But in general terms, an owner occupied where you live is typically going to price out an interest rate about one percentage point lower than you would find on an investment property, generally, if we're comparing apples to apples.
Keith Weinhold 23:15
talking about that risk difference for the lender, just like in the 20% versus 25% down. Example, there's less risk for the lender when you put 25% skin in the game. Hence the lower interest rate there too. Caeli, tell us about fitting the right mortgage type to the borrower. And of course, there are so many types. There's 30 year versus 15 year, fixed rate mortgages versus Adjustable Rate Mortgages, interest only, DSCR loans like you touched on. So tell us about getting that right fit for that individual borrower.
Caeli Ridge 23:49
This is a bit of a rabbit hole. So what I would start by saying is we do at Ridge take a lot of time on the front end and identifying not only what their needs are, their goals are, but obviously what their qualifications are, and marrying all of those things together and coming up with a roadmap that I like to call it, depending on where the individual is in their journey of real estate investing, as the tax returns may continue to be filed, and how aggressive they want to be with their deductions, maybe some cost segregation. I know I'm getting a little bit technical here, but because we maintain and have all of those products, it's very, very uncommon, or very rare, that we find an investor, potential client, that we do not have some sort of loan product to satisfy what their end game or end goal is. And you know, maybe we continue to graduate them. Let's say that they start in a DSCR because they can't qualify for Fannie Freddie today, but that is their ultimate goal. We're going to provide them with the insight and the background or the feedback that plants the seeds and gets them to that place in six months or a year, or whatever. So I hope I answered the question, depending on their individual needs and goals and qualifications, of course, really will dictate which one of those is going to be applicable.
Keith Weinhold 25:00
We've got a lot more to discuss, including, is it easier to approve w2 incomes from a day job versus 1099 from contract or gig work? And more, we're talking with the nation's foremost expert on income property. She is the president of ridge lending group, Caeli ridge. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, you can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor two, earn 8% hundreds of others are text family, 266, 866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family, 266, 866
Robert Kiyosaki 27:00
This is Rich Dad, Poor Dad Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.
Keith Weinhold 27:18
Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with Ridge lending Group President Chaley ridge. These discussions are great, because debt, through leverage, builds wealth even faster than compound interest, as I've discussed, and Caeli is really the linchpin in her company, and help makes that happen with reliable income property loans and Caeli today, there are a lot more people with sharing economy income, gig economy income, or doing contract work, and they're paid with a 1099 form that shows their income for that year, versus a w2 employee wage job. So can you tell us about whether it's easier to approve those that have a w2 income and that versus the 1099
Caeli Ridge 28:03
I don't know that I would classify it as easier as harder. It's just different. So on the 1099 first and foremost, if you don't have a 24 month history of having that kind of income, you're not going to get a conventional loan. And assuming that we're going to kind of keep on that path of Fannie Freddie's. Because remember, guys, if you can't fit into those boxes. We've got 10 others that we can look to to get the financing for. But if we're in the Fannie Freddie, that's really where this is applicable, the 1099 and the w2 I mean, they're really equal in terms of the overall process. The difference would be that with 1099 you must have that 24 month history. The calculation is that we're going to take an average, it gets a little bit convoluted, like anything else that is leverage or financing related, but a 24 month average of 1099 unless we can show that that individual, let's say that they're self employed and maybe a Schedule C, and they've got their 1099 coming in through that way. If they can show five year history of having license or being self employed that way, that instead of having to use a 24 month average, we'll use a 12 month average, and that may be to their advantage. Let's say that the most recent year filed is in a bit of a decline from the prior year. Let's just use 2022 and 23 let's say 23 is a little bit lower than 22 a 24 month average is not going to be as big a number than if I were to just to be able to take the 12 month average of the most recent year. So if that individual can demonstrate they have five years of being or receiving that kind of income, then instead of being a 24 month average, I get to choose and just do the 12 month average. So that would be one thing about the 1099 that I would say otherwise, yeah, they're just different. I don't know that one is harder than the other. As long as the qualifications are there, they're there.
Keith Weinhold 29:43
When I think about this, I guess it does make sense from the lender perspective. If you're paid and shown income there on your 1099 from sharing economy work, gig economy work, or being self employed, that's more volatile work than having a day job. Um, as an employee.
Caeli Ridge 30:01
Sure, absolutely. And if you can demonstrate that you have that history and you've been able to consistently earn and have those numbers, it's okay, yeah, but without the 24 months, you're not going to get a conventional loan. You're gonna have to look at DSCR or something else.
Keith Weinhold 30:15
We're talking about what it takes to qualify for income property loans today with Ridge lending Group President Caeli Ridge, when we talk about that qualification bar that needs to be met. Caeli, you see so many loan applications in there. You have a team. You look at and deal with so many situations when you're free, you even pick up the phone, sometimes yourself, and you will talk to individual borrowers. So what do you see in there as the top reasons for not qualifying for an income property loan.
Caeli Ridge 30:42
The top reasons for not qualifying for a conventional loan probably is debt to income ratio, yeah, more often than not of the three basic criteria, which are assets, enough cash to close or reserves, credit and then DTI, I would say it's the DTI category that more often than not, is the culprit for qualifying or not. And it may be as simple as how they filed their last year's tax return and saying, Okay, before you file 2024 don't do that until you send Ridge a draft, so that we can get ahead of what you may not have known to look for last time. They could be very simple, little easy fixes. And you know, sometimes maybe it's they don't want to pay the extra taxes, which sometimes that might be required. In which case we say, okay, let's pivot over to the DSCR options. In which case, by the way, just as a quick sidebar, I'm finding that gap is starting to narrow a little bit to the point that it's a lot more affordable in terms of the investment property and what cash flow is expected than it used to be. The differences between a Fannie Freddie rate and a DSCR rate is starting to narrow a little bit. So if you have to be DSCR, I would not shy away from that just because you assume I think it's going to be more reasonable for cash flow properties.
Keith Weinhold 31:52
Yeah, I'll tell you, when I was an employee as a day job worker grinding in my eight by 10 cubicle, as it was back in the day, and I was buying income properties. Yeah, the main thing I would get held up on is that my debt to income ratio, my DTI, was too high, and my salary was pretty strong, although not fantastic, not astronomically high, but I felt like I was a guy that was pretty good, pretty prudent with my finances. And yeah, it didn't feel good to be told hey, Keith, to lower your DTI. You need to pay off your 3% automobile loan that's at a nice fixed interest rate. I didn't want to have to do that, but I was willing to do that to retire the small loan in order to qualify for the big loan.
Caeli Ridge 32:36
That makes sense. I might just offer a comment in that regard. What you may have experienced at that time could have been what we call an overlay in the industry. So, yes, like anything, right? Lenders aren't created equal. Because we're so investor friendly and focused, we are going to go by the purest form of those Fannie Freddie guidelines. It's called a seller's guide. And as an example, let's just say that Fannie Freddie gives you 75% of the subject properties, gross rents, whereas B of A or I'm just picking on B of I don't know why, but some other lender may impose an overlay. It's like layers of risk and saying, No, we're not going to give you any rental income credit whatsoever, even though the guideline says that we can do it, our overlay says, No, we can't. So depending on who you're working with, credit unions are a little notorious for that being a little bit more restrictive in their box of guideline. So it may not always be what you think. So if you've had a lender, tell you DTI wise, you don't qualify, but you feel like this is not quite right. You should double check that, because it may be an overlay.
Keith Weinhold 33:34
Everyone is interested in interest rates. It's been so interesting with what's happened the past few years, ever really, since the covid Emergency cut took place in 2020 and the volatility that we've seen in interest rates, then we saw interest rates max out in this cycle at about 8% almost a year ago. What does this declining interest rate environment mean at a mortgage loan company? And what do you see for the future of rates there?
Caeli Ridge 34:02
Well, rates have been coming down. If you guys are watching the headlines, you're seeing those sound bites. We have started to see some more refinance activity than we were seeing before, certainly additional purchases as we start to see interest rates come down, I am of the opinion that we're going to continue to see some improvement in the rate department, dependent on some of the jobs reports that we'll be getting soon, so we'll see. But My money is on that, we'll continue to see some nice tailwind in the rate department throughout the rest of the year, and who knows what's going to happen? I mean, this is our election year, etc. We'll see how the rest of it plays out.
Keith Weinhold 34:33
How does a prospective borrower get their financial house in order themselves before getting a hold of you and your team there, what are some of those checklist items that they should do themselves at home first?
Caeli Ridge 34:47
like I said a bit ago, so you've got those three primary criteria. If you're wanting to qualify for those conventional full doc loans, think about your credit Do you know what that credit score is? Now, depending on some other variables, it doesn't have to be 800 Credit scores to qualify. I mean, we've got clients as low as 650 that are able to get financing conventionally, because they've got compensating factors, similarly for assets on the investment property side, the down payment and the closing costs and the reserves, none of those things can be borrowed or gifted. And that's very different than if it was an owner occupied, gifted and borrowed funds are okay for an owner occupied, for an investment property, they have to be sourced and seasoned, meaning your own funds over the last 60 days. So think about that. What your down payment is going to be an estimate of closing costs and make sure that you have the appropriate amount of capital. And then finally, that debt to income ratio. That's a slippery or one to try and calculate that for yourselves. But if you think about your minimum payments on your credit report. That's really all that goes into it. Minimum payments, not the debt load. The minimum payments on the credit report divided by the monthly income, gross income, you should be able to come up with a number, and 50% is that threshold. So if you can kind of just take that kind of mental back of the napkin of your own, you should have a pretty good gage on whether or not you think you're going to be in this box, or if getting into the game, or continuing to be in the game, is going to require some alternative loan types.
Keith Weinhold 36:05
Inflation has been such a story for the past three or four years, but some people aren't aware that there's actually been credit score inflation. Last time I checked, the average credit score had been slowly rising in the United States. What's the highest credit score that gets one the lowest rate.
Caeli Ridge 36:22
We're staying in the Fannie Freddie department, 760 and above is all the same bucket, if the individual qualifications are identical, if this one has an 850 credit and this one has a 760 credit, exactly the same in the interest rate department.
Keith Weinhold 36:35
And then, once they've engaged with you, what about locking in their interest rate. What duration did they have prior to closing? Tell us about that timeline.
Caeli Ridge 36:45
So an interest rate can be locked on a 15 day lock, a 30 day lock, a 45 day lock, even a 60 or 90 day lock, typically it's a 30 day lock that's the average. The shorter the period of lock, the better the rate and or points that you would pay. And the longer is the adverse right? The higher the rate of the higher the points. I like to look at locking an interest rate, usually when we get the appraisal back, because an appraisal can be the piece that might delay or there may be some issues. So I generally like to see the appraisal first. We've been in such a volatile area with interest rates and what might be happening in the ups and downs, etc. I've broken that rule quite a few times over the last couple of years, I would say today, floating may be to our advantage, just because we feel like rates are on the run and that they may continue to improve. Keeping in mind, once you lock in your interest rate, it is locked. Ridge does have a policy that if interest rates were to fall five, eight of a percentage point or point 625, you would have a one time automatic float down option. It's highly unlikely, and that's why we can kind of put that in there. But if it happened, we would honor that. Otherwise, when you're locked, you're stuck with that rate. You can't expect that if an eight through a quarter point comes off of or rates come down that much, that you're going to get a different rate. The only way to do that would be to let the existing one expire for 30 days and then relock market, which is not advisable.
Keith Weinhold 37:59
Yeah, you the investor, has to think about how important a lock really is to you in this declining interest rate environment, almost everyone expects mortgage rates to fall more slowly than they rose. They spiked up so fast in 2022 Caeli, how does our audience engage with you? Get Started and go on their path to getting investment property loans.
Caeli Ridge 38:24
Three ways to reach us. Obviously, we've got our website. Please check us out there. There's a lot of good information, ridgelendinggroup.com you can email us at [email protected], and then finally, toll free is 855-747-4343 855-74RIDGE is that easy way to remember, and we'll be here on standby. Thanks, Keith.
Keith Weinhold 38:43
Ridge is the same place where I get my income property loans. It's been great having you back on the show. Thank you. Yeah, strong. Well laid out material from cheyley here, as always, let me give us a perspective on creating value by having a good loan rather than not having the debt. Remember that just four weeks ago, here on Episode 516 it was the episode about is every debt worth paying off? And the short answer is no. I got a couple questions from listeners of that episode basically asking the same thing. Well, just say that interest rates are 6% and basically they're asking, well, if I pay all cash for a property or for a car, it doesn't matter what it is, then I avoid paying 6% interest. So right there is my six points of arbitrage. Well, to that, I say, okay, but look what if you think you can achieve a 12% investment return? Borrowing at six to invested 12 is a 6% spread. That's 6% arbitrage as well. But here's the thing, you've got a big advantage of doing this with the loan rather than the paid off condition. This is because. With the loan, you still have the use of your money. You haven't given it away. You still have your money, plus the six points of arbitrage in the paid off condition. You've got six points of arbitrage and you don't have the use of the money any longer. That's the big difference, and that's the value of having a loan, as long as you can service the payments. Getting back to mortgage loans, in today's episode, there are so many loan types for property, conventional, Fannie, Freddie's, dscrs, Portfolio loans, bridge loans, rehab loans, recourse and non recourse loan types, balloon loans, arms and a lot more. Caeli and I didn't discuss their all in one loan, which is like a big, flexible HELOC that you can put on your property. It's such a good product that can help you. You can ask about their all in one loan. When it comes down to what are the factors you need to be most attentive to? They are your assets, reserves, credit, income and debt to income ratio, unless dependent on the loan type that you want. So much attention is paid to interest rates, and some attention is warranted. They surely matter. Be mindful, though, that a quarter of a percent interest rate change on a 30 year loan per 100k borrowed that is just a difference of about $15 in monthly payment, $15 if you go from, say, 6% down to five and three quarters percent, so it takes a rate drop of a full 1% for a savings of about $60 then once you have some of Your finances in order, you can go ahead and do just what I've done for my own properties. For your next income property loan, you can give them a call or start at Ridgelendinggroup.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.
41:58
Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 42:18
The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com.
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Tom Wheelwright is back by popular demand, our most recurring guest in GRE show history. He’s a CPA, an International Authority on Tax, and Best Selling Author of “Tax-Free Wealth” amongst many other titles. We focus on the potential unrealized capital gains tax, which would tax the increase in property value even before sale. Tom explains the implications of this proposal and the broader impact on tax policy.
We cover the Democrats' proposal for capital gains tax at ordinary income rates, capital gains on gifts, and capital gains when you die.
The proposal for a billionaires tax, which would tax unrealized gains at $100 million, could potentially extend to lower net worth individuals over time.
Real estate income can result in a negative tax rate, increasing cash flow after taxes.
Learn about the benefits of working with a knowledgeable tax advisor.
Resources:
GetRichEducation.com/tax
Show Notes:
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Complete episode transcript:
Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai
Keith Weinhold 00:01
Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, this week we're talking about the value of the raw land that comes along with your property, the importance of an as built survey in real estate. Then it's tax topics with pro Tom wheelwright, the specter of an unrealized capital gains tax, higher capital gains tax rates, how gambling is taxed, and how to permanently reduce your overall tax burden. Today on get rich education,
00:33
since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com
Corey Coates 01:18
You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold 01:34
Welcome to GRE from Essex County England to Essex, Massachusetts and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education before we talk taxes, let's talk about the land, the raw land, the lot that comes along with your property. Investors don't spend much time thinking about it. Yet the land is sometimes worth more than the home or structure that's on it, per the FHFA, land constitutes 32.2% of the value of the average US single family property in a metro area. Now the inexpensive land prices nationally, they are predominantly in what I'm classifying it as three US areas, the Midwest, the southeast and Appalachia well, where you have inexpensive land. Oh, that also happens to be where the cash flow for long term rentals resides. Land costs more by the water because people want water activities, water proximity and water view. So the lower costs are inland, and land also costs more by the water, because coasts and shorelines constrain development, sprawl that limits supply and a limited supply of buoys up prices. Consequently, the highest land values are mostly in the Northeast Corridor, from Boston to DC, Miami, coastal California and Honolulu. Yes, Manhattan values are flat out extortionate for raw land now, Seattle, Madison, Wisconsin and Boulder, Colorado. They are three places with really high land values as well. Seattle and Madison are on geographic isthmus. And isthmus is a narrow strip of land with water on both sides. It's interesting how Nashville's nascent population influx made its land values surge inside a cheap sea of southeastern US land values now costly land areas like these ones that I've been talking about on the coasts, they could work well for short term vacation rentals like Airbnb and VRBO, your classic waterfront and beachfront weekly rentals, but they do not work for long term rental cash flow. Texas Land values are sort of low to medium. Land near the Mississippi River and its major tributaries have low costs because rivers are efficient transportation networks, prohibitively high land costs. That's one reason, actually, why alternative building methods just really aren't as cost effective as some people think. I'm talking about things like 3d printed homes, prefabbed homes, tiny homes and shipping container homes, well, all of them have got to sit on land, just like conventionally build homes do. And there is a land cost. Talk to a tear down specialist, and they'll tell you that in some older homes, 100% of the total value is in the l and. And in practicality, it's actually even more lopsided than that. The structure can have negative value because demolition is not free. So for you to get an idea yourself, your property tax bill, it's going to show you your split. That's where you'll see the assessed values broken out for both your structure and the land. So the bottom line here is that cash flowing properties have low land values, typically 25% or less of the total property value. That's generally what you want to look for. And I swear the only thing that's more barren than raw land is the creative naming process for new developments. There is such a lack of creativity in these development names. I'm talking about names like Willow Creek Estates, stone bridge crossing, or what else do they name a new housing development? How about VISTA, view heights? They all have these idyllic sounding names that somehow just all sound like each other. Well, we're talking about raw land when you get in contract to buy a property, the seller side is expected to provide you with an as built, it often still comes in the form of an old fashioned piece of paper and as built survey, what it is is a plan view, a bird's eye or aerial view of your property. It's not a photograph, but a drawing, and it shows you the dimensions and the placement of structures on your property, and it includes things like fences and other features like easements. Now, lenders don't always require an as built before granting a loan, but it's a good idea to ask to see one before you wrap up your next deal. If you want to in your offer, you can even require that a recent as built be done by a surveying company. All right. Well, what exactly do you look for on an as built once you have one in hand, first see that the house or apartment building that you're buying is properly set back from the property lines to meet zoning requirements. If the six foot side setback is only five feet 10 inches, then you'll have to address that before you buy even if it's five feet 11 inches. Now it's possible that the jurisdiction that you're buying in will grant a letter of non conforming status, but if not, the structure is going to have to be adjusted. Another item to look for on an as built are encroachments. This is where part of a neighbor structure protrudes over the lot line and onto your property. And encroachment is really only acceptable if you're willing to grant the neighbor an easement in perpetuity for their encroachment onto your land. But why would you want to do that? The third thing that I want to mention that you should look for an as built is the existence of easements. An easement that just means that another party has a legal right to come over onto your land and use it. Yeah, and easements are actually quite common. It's not as threatening as it might sound. A common one is that as your as built would show, say, a five foot wide by 60 foot long easement. Is there that a utility company has access to. Well, that's something that makes sense. It's for the common good, but just be mindful that an easement cannot have a structure with a permanent foundation built on top of it, alright, because an electric company or a water company might have to excavate there. Most people think of easements on the raw land, but there are also aerial easements, for example, an overhead power line where the roof eaves are not allowed to intrude on that airspace. So to review what you learned so far today, the best cash flow properties typically have low land values, often about 25% or less of the tolerable property value. And an as built survey is an aerial view drawing of your property and its dimensions on an as built look to see that it meets zoning requirements like setbacks and look for encroachments and easements. It is resale properties where it's more important to look at as builts than it is for new construction properties. As we're about to bring in tax pro Tom Wheelwright shortly, business owners and real estate investors really get so many of the best tax breaks in the US Code. But you've got to know. How to find them, or else work then with a CPA that does know how to find them, that really knows how to navigate their way around the tax code, people that make high salaries pay high taxes, as much as 50% you remember I did that episode a few months ago, high salaries don't create wealth. Taxes are one big reason why, say, for example, a chiropractor makes $1.2 million a year in salary. But if that chiropractor becomes an investor by buying and selling other Chiropractic Clinics or investing in real estate, their tax rate will drop by half or more, and that's because capital gains tax rates are about half of ordinary income tax rates. So see, you don't want to be a super earner. You want to earn enough money to invest and become a super owner, but tax policy could change Tom and I will discuss that first. Then we'll talk about reducing the amount of tax that you pay. Today is a new punishing unrealized capital gains tax coming that you will have to pay. What this means is that if you have a $500,000 home, and it rises in value to $550,000 well, you would have to pay tax on your $50,000 of profit, but you haven't sold your home. So this feels so wrong, because you haven't realized any profit at all. This is what unrealized capital gains tax is. And also, where are you going to get the cash to pay the tax on your 50k of profit just because your home rose in value yet you didn't realize it? I mean, might you have to sell your home in order to get the cash to pay the tax. And then what if you though could pay the tax on your unrealized capital gain so you do pay it, but then the following year, the home goes down in value. Well, would you get a refund then? So the unrealized capital gains tax proposal is a mess. Let's learn about it and more. This week's guest is a best selling author, CPA and an international authority on tax. He's brilliant because he actually makes taxes fun, easy and understandable. He's familiar to you because he's the most recurrent guest in show history. Welcome back to GRE Tom Wheelwright.
Tom Wheelwright 12:48
thanks always good to be on your show.
Keith Weinhold 12:50
Tom probably with more than 30 show appearances here now you are 6% of GRE episodes.
Tom Wheelwright 13:00
That's a little scary. But you know, taxes are your single biggest expense, so why not?
Keith Weinhold 13:05
It's appropriate. And yeah, I guess all these appearances are certainly an endorsement of how much you help our audience. It's also a reflection of how tax and legal are not my strong suit. So it really helps to have you here absolutely the all time, assists leader in GRE history then and Tyler. An awful lot of timely tax topics going on that are probably first and foremost in more people's news feeds than they usually are. As we're here during presidential campaign season, the one that it really seems to revolve around the most is this potential tax proposal on unrealized gains. I've been around long enough where I seem to see this proposal come up more often, but it never seems to go anywhere. So first, why don't you tell us what unrealized gains are?
Tom Wheelwright 13:51
it actually goes beyond that. Interestingly enough, what the Democrats are proposing is, first of all, they're proposing capital gains rates at ordinary income rates. So they're proposing doubling the capital gains rate. That's actually as important as anything else. The second thing is, they're proposing capital gains on gifts. So if you give it, if you give your business to your child, you have a capital gains ordinary income rates. They're proposing capital gains when you die. So not only an estate tax, but also a capital gains tax. So then you get taxed twice when you die. So about 80 to 90% of your estate goes to the government when you die. If you're a business owner, as an example, then they're proposing eliminating the 1031 exchange, which would mean that on a trade of real estate, you'd have a capital gains tax at ordinary income rates. Then they're talking about this unrealized capital gains so if you do nothing but build your business or your real estate, the increase in value is subject to capital gains taxes at ordinary income rates. Now you know their proposal is, we have this tax. Tax when you're over $100 million that is not seem to be in the news feeds right now, but that's what it is. They call it the billionaires tax, and they're calling it an alternative minimum tax on billionaires. But clearly, 100 million is not a billion. That's only a 10th of a billion. And the biggest issue, of course, is if you tax unrealized gains at 100 million, soon you're going to tax them at 10 million, then it's going to be 1 million. Because history. That's the history of our tax law. The history of our tax law. Remember, in 1913 when we passed the 16th Amendment, it was passed because it was only a tax on the rich, right? It would never have passed if it was going to be a tax on the average person. And yet it passed. Because great, we're okay taxing somebody else, as long as it's not our tax. We're okay taxing somebody else. That's pretty much what's going on with this unrealized gains tax is, oh, well, it's on somebody else and they have enough money. It's no big deal. Therefore, I'm okay with that, because why shouldn't they pay more tax? That is what this is about. The challenge is, is, as we saw with the income tax, eventually it will reach the average person, or at least the average entrepreneur, real estate investor. Because think also, let's say that you build your wealth in real estate, and then when you retire, you say, Well, look, I don't want to be doing active real estate anymore. I'm going to trade my single family homes or my apartment building. I'm going to trade for a Walgreens a triple net lease, well under their proposal, that would be taxed because, again, no 1031 exchanges over $500,000 so that means that if you accumulate your wealth through business or real estate, you pay a much higher tax rate than if you accumulate your wealth by investing in Wall Street through a 401k because if you invest in Wall Street through a 401K, you only have to pay tax as you pull that out, you're not going to be paying tax on the value. Now that's assuming that they don't tax the increase in value of your 401K, which is also obviously a possibility. Interesting enough people talk a lot about the constitutionality of this. The challenge with that is that we already have taxes unrealized gains. If you're a dealer in stocks, in securities you do mark to market, that is meaning that you're going to pay tax on unrealized gains. And so there is actually precedent for this, and that's the scary thing, is that they could point to that precedent and say, Well, wait a minute, it's just an income tax, it's not a wealth tax, that's what they're going to say. They're going to say it's an income tax, not a wealth tax, because it's on appreciation, and appreciation is income. That's how they're going to go down this road. Will it start at $100 million Absolutely, that's where it will start. Will it then drift down? Who knows? But likely that's the history of our tax system. Yeah. I mean, we've talked before about the phenomenon of the camel getting its nose under the tent. However, in this case, I didn't realize there's already precedent for unrealized gains, in a sense, as potentially, if this is approved for those with $100 million net worth, and in next it's 10 million net worth, $1 million net worth and so on, like you described there, when you talk about capital gains tax rates being stepped up so that they're at ordinary income tax rates. It's actually somewhat of an interesting philosophical discussion, in a way. It sort of makes sense that a person's gains from investment could or should be taxed at the same rate as one's income when they go to their day job. However, why don't we do that by lowering income taxes rather than doubling capital gains? Wait a minute, no, because it's a double tax. Let's say that you're a business owner. Why does your business increase in value? Well, because you're making income, but you're already being taxed on that income. It's called income tax. What we do in this country, which a lot of countries don't do, by the way, is we tax it a second time. We call that a capital gains tax or a dividends tax. We tax it twice now. Now we're going to have that second tax at the same rate of the original tax. So if you think about it, you're being taxed on the same income twice because it's your income that determines your value, so you're being taxed twice. It's really not the same. It's fine if you're invested in the stock market, and that's where your capital gains are. That's a hard one to argue too much, although it does take liquidity out of the market, because the problem with capital gains tax is being taxed over 28% it's about 28% is that you actually lower the contribution to the Treasury because there will be fewer capital gains. There will be so many fewer capital gains that you actually lose money. The Tax Foundation, taxfoundation.org, I'd refer people to, has done lots of studies on this, and it's very clear. Here that high capital gains rates actually reduce the amount of money that comes to the government. So this is purely political. This has nothing to do with let's generate more revenue, one of the challenges so you have to score this, right? So that means that you're scoring what's the revenue that's going to be produced? You have two types of scoring. One is called static scoring. The other is called dynamic scoring. Static scoring means that we're going to look at the capital gains we already have, and we're just going to, if we double the rate, we're going to double the revenue. So that's assuming that we're going to have the same number and amounts of capital gains as we add at the lower rates, right? Dynamic scoring means that we're going to take into account how people behave motivationally when you double the tax rate. Yeah. Well, let me give you an example. So I'm a business owner. My wealth is in my business primarily. Do you think, really, I'm going to sell that business and take the capital gains immediately and be done with it? But if I have a high capital gains rate, I'm going to sell this over 20 years. So I'm actually going to defer my capital gains as long as I can, because I don't want to pay those high capital gains rates. So that means less money to the government. That's what it means. So it actually reduces on a dynamic scoring if you look at truly how people behave and have behaved in the past. So this isn't a new thing, right? We've had high capital gains rates before. It's not like we don't know. It's not like we haven't seen this before. It's that, for whatever reason, politically, they've decided that, wait a minute, the rich are out of favor. We need to tax the rich more. That's a very popular line, and therefore this is a way to do that, even though it by all calculations that are dynamic, it would actually reduce the amount of funds that come to the Treasury.
Keith Weinhold 22:00
That does make sense about the double taxation. Case in point, with an apartment building, if you increase its noi, you have more income than pay tax that if you increase the noi, therefore you've increased the value of the building. Consequently, the capital gains tax that you might have to pay down the road Tom, maybe current capital gains tax are higher than I thought, is the 28% capital gains tax. Number You mentioned, current or proposed. What is that?
Tom Wheelwright 22:24
Well, right now we have a 24% capital gains tax, okay, we have 20% pure capital gains tax, plus we have a 3.8% net investment income tax. Doesn't apply right now if you're a real estate professional, but applies to everybody else under the Harris proposal formally adopted Biden's plan under the Harris proposal, then you would get a actually 39.6% rate, plus 5% net investment income tax, regardless of whether you're your real estate Professional. So that is 44.6% that's the 45% the 28% number I threw out is that's the number the Tax Foundation says is the maximum you can raise it to without losing revenue.
Keith Weinhold 23:11
That puts things into perspective, as real estate investors, for a long time, we've appreciated substantial tax shelters. What are they being the 1031, tax deferred exchange, like you mentioned, that's been around for more than 100 years. Does that have any realistic shot of being shot down? Of course, Trump shot down substantial parts of the 1031 outside of strict real estate investing.
Tom Wheelwright 23:32
He did, and he actually set the precedent for eliminating it. So by doing that, because he eliminated it on everything except real property, right? I mean, actually, and even before that, there was a time, and there's still ways you can do it with paper assets. But it's not a 1031 exchange. So 1031 exchange has it evolved. It's gotten it's shrunk. It keeps shrinking. Even three or four years ago, no realistic possibility of eliminating 1031 exchange. The challenge, of course, is it would have an impact on the liquidity of the market. However, big deals never do 1031 exchange. Ever you don't see big multifamily developments sold in 1031s. The only time you see that happen is when they've used the Delaware statutory trust. And then you've got some of the investors who use it. And some of them who don't, you can do that in the Delaware statutory trust, but the regular developers, I haven't seen a 1031 done by a syndicator in years. So could they eliminate? Yeah, they could.
Keith Weinhold 24:33
yeah, that would be concerning. Are there any other presidential hopeful proposals that have to do with taxes that are germane, and our audience should know about?
Tom Wheelwright 24:41
my heavens. So the Democrats want to raise taxes by $5 trillion they want those taxes to all be on investors. And the reason I say that is because typically, people who make less than $400,000 which is their threshold, are not major investors. Most of their money goes to spending. Money. If you're making under $400,000 you can easily spend $400,000 a year. Oh, yeah, okay, that's not that hard, especially in today's world. It's a transfer from high net worth individuals who invest their money in long term projects like real estate, like energy, like business, and it's going to be a transfer to people who spend the money and they're going to spend it, my prediction is that if the Democrats get their way, we enter into a long term period of stagflation, high unemployment and high inflation. Because if you transfer $5 trillion from people who aren't spending it in the first place to be able who do spend it. You've got $5 trillion of new money going into the marketplace. Now it could depress asset values. So that could be good for investors, okay? Because you don't have as much cash available to the I'll call it the investor class, to go into real estate. If that's the case, then you have $5 trillion less, right? I mean, it's not a huge portion of the market, but it's big enough. If you take $5 trillion out of investment capital, then that would put a downward pressure on asset prices, which would include real estate.
Keith Weinhold 25:29
we're talking about potential changes to the tax code. It's always a germane discussion, because taxes are the biggest expense in your life. We're talking with Tom wheelwright. We come back, we're going to talk about the real estate tax laws as they are now, for example, how your rent income is taxed differently than your job income, and also, what are taxes like on sports, gambling. You're listening to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.
Keith Weinhold 26:45
hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com
Keith Weinhold 27:16
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Blair Singer 28:29
this is Rich Dad, sales advisor, Blair singer. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And above all, Don't Quit Your Daydream.
Keith Weinhold 28:48
welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with tax pro Tom wheelwright. He's been talking to us about some of the proposals that presidential candidates have here in a campaign season, and whether these things become true or not. Sometimes it seems like just the fact that they're proposing. They're proposed, or if they get instituted at a small level years down the road, it can blow up into something bigger. So Tom tell us more about some of the proposals that are on the table.
Tom Wheelwright 29:12
So we talked about the democratic proposals, which also include things like a $6,000 tax credit for babies. It also includes an enhanced Child Tax Credit. Also includes some other there's lots of provisions in there, right? So it's a transfer. It's just a transfer of money from one group of people to another group of people. On the Republican side, we haven't talked about that now they want to extend the 2017 act. They've been very clear, that's what they want to do, which is an estimate $4 trillion so the other direction. So basically, you're talking about a $9 trillion swing between the two parties. We've never seen this before, ever in a presidential election. Now, that big of a difference, one major tax increase, one party proposing major. Tax increases, the other proposing major tax decreases in the same election. It's something that I'm glad people are paying attention to, because it's a little overdue in this election cycle. Because really, when you talk about policy, that's probably the biggest policy difference between the two parties.
Keith Weinhold 30:18
Now one thing we've learned over time from talking with you is these presidential wish lists, if you want to call them that. Well, these tax changes are things that require congressional approval, and we have a divided Congress currently. So what do you think the prospects are of really any of these things becoming new law?
Tom Wheelwright 30:36
First of all, remember, most of the 2017 act expires at the end of 2025 so something will have to be done next year. They don't have a choice, either that or is just expires, and then we're back to what we had. We have smaller standard deductions, we have alternative minimum tax again. We get a deduction for state income taxes, right? That comes back the one. We lose our 20% Small Business deduction, the only thing that stays permanent is the corporate income tax rate that was permanent in the original bill. So there is going to be something, you're right, if there is a divided Congress, and I say that if, because if one party sweeps, then, especially on the Democratic side, the Republicans don't seem to be as cohesive as the Democrats are on these things. And if the Democrats sweep, I would say, remember, we don't have Kyrsten Sinema, we don't have Joe Manchin from happening. And so would the Democrats sweep all these through, not all of them, but you're going to see a major tax increase for sure, on the Republican side, would you see the 2017 act extended? You'll probably see it, but you're right that otherwise, if it's a divided Congress, we're going to have something in between. We thought we would get a divided Congress in 2020 though, remember and we didn't. So I would not count on a divided Congress
Keith Weinhold 31:59
erstwhile 2017 Trump tax cuts in JOBS Act brought the highest marginal income tax bracket from 39.6% under Obama down to 37% as I remember it. Some thought Biden would take it back up to 39.6 but he hasn't and it's just stated 37 All right, so if Republicans stayed in power, presumably that 37% would go ahead and carry on. That's what we think about as our w2 income. Tom, why don't we talk about the taxes that actually exist today? I think a lot of real estate investors just don't understand the difference between how your w2 job income is taxed versus your taxes on real estate rent. Can you talk to us about that?
Tom Wheelwright 32:42
The reason it's confusing is because they're both considered ordinary income, right? The difference is, is that one is business income and one is non business income. Your wages are non business income. You don't get deductions against non business income, but you do get deductions against business income. So your rental income is considered business income for purposes of the Internal Revenue Code. What that means is you get deductions for taxes. You get deductions for interest, you get deductions for maintenance, you get deductions for depreciation. That's why, when you have your income from your rentals. Typically taxed much lower than your income from your salary, because you get no deductions against your salary like you do against the rentals.
Keith Weinhold 33:30
Maybe it would help to introduce an example here. I don't know if this will complicate things too much or not. If a real estate investor has, say, a single family rental property with $2,000 of rent, income, $1,000 mortgage, $800 in operating expenses. How is that tax that leaves them with $200 of cash flow?
Tom Wheelwright 33:50
You have $200 of cash flow, but then you probably have depreciation on top of that, which is a non cash deduction. And so let's say your depreciation is $500 that means you actually have a $300 loss that, in many cases, you can use to offset income from your w2 so you actually have a negative tax rate. In other words, you're making money from taxes. So actually, is that an increase to your cash flow? So it's a way to think of it is, I have $200 of cash flow from my tenant, if I have a $300 loss for tax purposes, let's say I'm in a 33% tax bracket. I have $100 of income from the government. So that means my cash flow is really after tax. Cash flow is $300 not $200 whereas if you have the same $200 of income from your wages. Let's say you have just the net, right? Let's start with the net. You have $200 well, you're going to be taxed. And let's say that again, your 33% tax rate, that means you're after tax, right, is going to be roughly $125,000 okay, under $30 so $130 we're. $300 so it's like twice as much. In fact, all of that difference is because of the tax law.
Keith Weinhold 35:06
Gosh, that was a great breakdown. I'm really glad that I introduced that example, $2,000 in rent, minus $1,000 for the mortgage, at $800 in operating expenses, again, leaving you with $200 in cash flow with that example. There's probably more going on here with taxes. Because, of course, with that $1,000 mortgage amount, some is going to be principal, some is going to be interest. In part of that interest can be tax deductible.
Tom Wheelwright 35:31
I'm assuming it's all interest, because if it were not, we'd have a higher taxable income. Remember, your principal payment is not deductible. So in your example, I was assuming that the $1,000 mortgage payment was all interest. If it was only $800 then you'd have $400 of income before depreciation. You don't have $100 loss, because, remember, your principal's not deductible, so therefore you have to add that back into your taxable income.
Keith Weinhold 35:58
Will you talk to us about how to apply depreciation to this income versus expenses. Example, is there anything else you can speak to when it comes to that $800 of operating expenses in this example, and those expenses include things like property insurance, property tax itself, maintenance repairs and utilities.
Tom Wheelwright 36:19
Right but also, for example, you might run your rental real estate business out of a home office in your home so you could have a home office deduction. You might have your use your car for the rental purposes, and then you get a deduction for your car. So there are additional expenses that aren't even in that $800 that you could pick up that would not otherwise you'd never get a deduction, and you're really not spending any more money. You're just using it for business, and therefore getting a business deduction. So it's really all about what do I get to deduct? Remember that if you own a home for yourself, you don't get to really deduct the taxes. You have a limit on how much you can deduct. So taxes are limited in deduction. Mortgage Interest may or may not be limited. Remember also that if you have a mortgage, you're limited to how much a $750,000 mortgage being deductible, whereas if you it's a rental property, it could be a seven and a half million dollar and mortgage, and you still get the deduction, so you're not limited like you are. On top of that, again, it's a business, so let's say that you put solar panels on your personal home, you'd get a 30% tax credit, but you'd get no depreciation deduction. If you put solar panels on your rental house, you get the same 30% tax credit, but now you also get a depreciation deduction of probably another 30 $40,000 in the first year. So there's always more deductions in a business setting than a personal setting.
Keith Weinhold 37:56
Well, real estate has been around a really long time. Often laugh when people talk about non conventional investments and put real estate investing in their real estate's about the most conventional investment that we can possibly think of. It's been around a long time. We think about a newer thing that people do with their money, but I sure don't call it investing. That's sports gambling, and it's something that you and I haven't talked about before. Here Tom in 2018 the Supreme Court opened the way for states to legalize sports gambling, and at last check, 38 states, plus DC and Puerto Rico have legalized at least some form of sports gambling. So now it's a more germane conversation for you and I to have than it was a few years ago. Can you tell us about sports gambling, taxes and how it's treated.
Tom Wheelwright 38:41
So remember, all income is taxable. So that includes gambling winnings. They are taxable. In fact, you'll get a 1099 just like you would if you rendered services, you'd get a 1099 or you have interest income, you get 1099 you get 1099 from gambling. What you actually have to show is that you actually have gambling losses. So you have to track those gambling losses to show the IRS that you got gambling losses. But your gambling losses can never be more than your gambling winnings. You never get to generate a tax loss on gambling. What that means is, is that if you win $10,000 during the year, and you can prove that you lost $8,000 during the year, you're going to be taxed on $2,000 but if you can't prove the 8000 you're going to be taxed on 10,000
Keith Weinhold 39:33
so you the gambler, have the burden of tracking this, and I guess tracking your losses. I'm not a gambler. How would one track their losses?
Tom Wheelwright 39:42
I would keep detail ledger. Personally, I probably have a separate bank account just for gambling. Gosh, I'm not a gambler either, so that's what I would do. I would have a bank account just for gambling, by the way. It's also a good way to budget your gambling so they, you know, get in trouble, right? So just set up a separate bank account. Don't put whatever money you say, I'm comfortable with this money, I'm going to gamble with this money put in that bank account, and then you have a ledger that shows the money that went in and the money you lost, the money you won, and don't do anything but gambling in that bank account.
Keith Weinhold 40:15
Hey, that separate account's a great way to hide it from your spouse, not that I'm suggesting. Not bad.
Tom Wheelwright 40:22
Interesting. You went there.
Keith Weinhold 40:23
I'm not a gambler at all. Can't even believe I was thinking that far ahead. What are the gambling tax rates like?
Tom Wheelwright 40:31
They're ordinary income tax rate. So gambling winnings are just ordinary income. They're the same as your wages. They don't have social security taxes their income, just like any other kind of income, nothing special. And this all applies to whether it's sports gambling or general gambling, like lotteries and sweepstakes? Just remember, all incomes taxable unless the government says it isn't all income, okay? And then there's some types of income that are taxed at special rates, like capital gains, but gambling has no special rates. By the way, gold also has special rate for when you sell gold, it has its own tax rate. Gambling has no special tax rate, so it's just your ordinary income rates.
Keith Weinhold 41:11
To me, it seems like it's hard to break even with gambling over time, and then when you take the tax adjusted earnings that you get from it, you know, over the long term. I just don't think Harris and Bally's Casino is really incentivized to inform gamblers on how punitive this can be with ordinary income tax rates applied to gambling winnings.
Tom Wheelwright 41:30
No, but they will send you your 10909g I guarantee that, that's for sure.
Keith Weinhold 41:34
Well, Tom has helped business owners and real estate investors permanently reduce their taxes. He does it like virtually no one else in the world does by keeping it simple, by helping you find deductions that other CPAs can't do. You can learn more about how Tom and his team can actually help you. You can get a free consultation. You can do that at getricheducation.com/tax. And Tom tell us more about the importance of a business owner or a real estate investor or anybody else really being connected with the right kind of tax professional that can permanently reduce your taxes.
Tom Wheelwright 42:12
So remember that if you want to change your tax, you have to change your facts. It's that simple. What you have to do is you need to know what facts you need to change. That's where a good tax advisor comes in. Is what facts do you need to change in order to change your tax now good news is, wrote tax through wealth. So you got an idea of what that is, but the tax law is very detailed. You must dot your i's cross your t's, so to speak, so that you make sure that you meet all of the rules, such as documentation, for example, for your business expenses. When you do that, you're going to get a better tax result, especially if your tax advisor is also preparing your tax return. Because really, your tax return is just part just how you implement your tax strategy, right? That's how you do it. So we launched, just recently, a franchise of tax advisors, and now we actually have much, really good control, quality control with our tax advisors, and they use our software system. It's very important that you have somebody, if not us, find somebody who you know you can actually give tax free wealth too, and say what cares make sure that we're doing it this way. But if the easy button is really the getricheducation.com/tax.
Keith Weinhold 43:27
Tom Wheelwright, It's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.
Tom Wheelwright 43:33
Thanks, Keith.
Keith Weinhold 43:40
Yeah, key insights from Tom as always, taxes are complicated. Tom's Network helps sort it out for you. We've already covered a lot of ground on this week's episode with raw land values as built, proposed tax plans and how to reduce your tax burden within the existing tax system. Tom and I talked, and he will be back yet again with us later this year for more tax wizardry. Now, just recently here, Kamala Harris proposed a smaller capital gains tax hike than Biden. She's starting to put sort of her own policy spin on things, breaking with the President on the size of a proposed increase on the capital gains tax rate that is a 28% top tax rate when investments are sold for those that make a million dollars plus. So that's more than the current 23.8% top rate, but less than the 39.6% rate that Biden had supported all income is taxable. Therefore it is axiomatic that the fastest way to increase your ROI is to work with a tax advisor that can find you all of the biggest deductions right away. You can read Tom's book Tax Free Wealth, get a good system of documentation going and get connected with Tom's team. At the end of an episode at times, I like to leave you with the most actionable resource on the topic that we covered. You can schedule a free call to see how Tom's team can help you out. At getricheducation.com/tax. That's getricheducation.com/tax. Until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.
45:33
Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC, exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 46:01
The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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A prominent Florida Builder and #1 Wall Street Journal Best-Selling Author joins us to discuss the benefits of build-to-rent properties, including affordable housing and attractive mortgage rates.
He has already done all the work for investors, offering new build income properties that are sometimes rented.We discuss the importance of median value and affordability index in choosing profitable areas for long-term real estate investments.
Learn about new build income properties with rate buydowns as low as 3.75%.
Important market dynamics and investor strategies, including the trade-offs between cash flow and equity growth.
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Complete episode transcript:
Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai
Keith Weinhold 00:01
Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, a great way to forecast the future of the real estate market is to look at the level of new building. I've got a surprise to reveal there then a focus on one of the hottest in migration states. That's popular because it promises cash flow for real estate investors today on Get Rich Education.
00:24
Since 2014 the powerful Get Rich Education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guest top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich Education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the Get Rich Education podcast. Sign up now for the Get Rich Education podcast, or visit getricheducation.com
Corey Coates 01:09
You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.
Keith Weinhold 01:25
Welcome to GRE from Plains Georgia to White Plains New York and across 188 nations worldwide, you are listening to Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we are an educational platform. And if you haven't yet, I really suggest that you spend 100 hours learning how to invest in real estate. The average person works 2000 hours a year for 40 years. That's 80,000 hours of working for money. I implore you to spend 100 hours learning how to keep it and grow it and leverage it and create income and tax advantages from it. 80,000 hours of lifetime work, 100 hours learning real estate investing. Now, when someone like a presidential candidate produces, still vague talk about building 3 million starter homes in four years. That actually appears just about impossible. Within the existing structure. We would need 2 million housing starts per year from 2025 to 2028, in order to overcome our existing shortfall. And we haven't exceeded 1.8 million in any year in the moderate era, and that's even when demand was extraordinary and interest rates were low. Just you know, look at the reality of what home builders need to actually do, and this is even if they don't have any excessive not in my backyard. Pushback, builders have to procure land, meaning they need to lay out cash far before building, and then they need to jump through zoning and building hoops in counties and cities, in towns, in communities, and sometimes those hoops can reach preposterous levels with substantial delays. Builders need to secure financing, and for most, interest rates are still in the 9% plus range. And then builders need to acquire a whole local network of contractors and subcontractors, and then they need to keep those contractors and subcontractors busy, or else they're gonna lose those workers. So builders have to work to maintain their teams once they found them. And if that's not enough, this is all amidst a historically bad skilled labor shortage, meaning those workers can be enticed to go work for somebody else. As you know, skilled worker demand far exceeds skilled worker supply. So for builders, it takes years of planning and development. In a lot of cases, they sit on land for many years before the market conditions are right for the actual build. Well, look, at least there is finally acknowledgement among our highest elected officials that we do need to address the core problem, but our elected officials proposals aren't really so good, and our country's housing problem is largely a regulatory issue. Later today, we'll talk to a builder that's already done all of this for you, so it's not preconstruction that has new build income properties complete, available sometimes even rented already, and they help you buy down your mortgage rate to a level that's really low. You'll soon learn about it. But first, let's talk more about adding new housing supply in the larger apartment segment. It's something that can help you see the future here, but it isn't getting enough tension outside of multifamily industry circles, and that is the fact that apartment starts are plummeting to 11 year lows. And this is a real surprise to some people, multifamily completions are outpacing starts by the widest margin since 1975 and I mention this because, you know, you probably keep hearing and reading about how apartment construction is at all time highs, but really, that is a story from two years ago. It takes about two years to go from an apartment construction start to a completion. Well, today we're seeing that huge surge of apartment starts two years ago morph into completions. That's the piece to be aware of here. And to give you some idea about the new apartment building, slow down through July, we have completed 314,000 multifamily units, and we started just 193,000 units. That's all according to census stats that year to date. Start total is the nation's lowest since 2013 when we were just building our way out of the global financial crisis. Also a larger share of apartment supply. In this next cycle, it's likely to be affordable housing, because that's where the tax incentives are in the last wave of apartment construction a few years ago, it was more higher end stuff, and the result is today, apartments are oversupplied in a lot of markets, leading to falling apartment rents, or just somewhat stable and frozen apartment rents in heavily overbuilt places like Austin, Texas and a lot of others. But this slowdown in New Starts of larger apartments is why some have bullishness on the multifamily outlook for 2026 and beyond supply is the biggest headwind for apartment investors today. While it is an enormous tailwind for renters, it's good for them, but those dynamics appear likely to shift again. It took an almost perfect storm of variables to push apartment construction to 50 year highs, and it's difficult to see a scenario where construction could re-accelerate back to those peaks. Today's apartment completion levels could mark a high. It's generational. You may never see it again. So to summarize, in the world of large apartments, supply is still up, even outpacing demand in a lot of markets. It all came from a big building wave that began when interest rates were low two years ago. They're mostly upper end places. Apartment syndicators also got hit with higher rates that reset on them, and you've seen the value of some apartment buildings fall 30%. It is bad. But long term, I expect that apartments are going to be fine. New lease ups are absorbing what's out there. The demographics show that renters will continue occupying apartments. Interest rates have already fallen and they're expected to keep falling, and you don't have very many new apartment starts, it's that last piece that a lot of people aren't aware of. So that's the forecast over the next few years for five plus unit apartments. When it comes to the market dynamics for one to four unit properties. I'm going to discuss this with one of the voices of GRE marketplace today. They are a build to rent provider building new construction, single family homes, duplexes and fourplexes for tenants that they sell to investors. Hey, I'd like to welcome in a home builder and property provider serving Florida, basically statewide, known as North America's leading build to rent property developer, and he believes in what he builds and offers others, because he's been a real estate investor himself for more than two decades. Hey, Jim, welcome back onto the show.
Jim Sheils 09:45
Keith, good to be here. Thanks for having me.
Keith Weinhold 09:47
Jim, we have a lot of exciting things to talk about. What you're doing in Florida. You've really helped out a lot of our investors and followers so far. You have some really interesting things to tell us about. Rate buydowns and just how low those rate buydowns are on some new build properties. And I sure want to get to that. But first, why don't we just pull back big picture, and from the 30,000 foot national view, before we talk about Florida, what are some of the important dynamics you see in the real estate market here in late 2024
Jim Sheils 10:16
Yeah, it's been interesting. The media is always late to the party, as you know, Keith, I've seen some interesting stats. You know, affordability nationwide has gone from 480,000 about eight months ago, and now it's down to about 405, so we've already seen the affordability index come down nationwide, and it's hit really well here in Florida. One of the reasons why is there's definitely been some price adjustments on higher priced property in Maine markets, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, areas that we don't build because the numbers didn't work. So that's been really good to see that affordability also, rates are just starting to drop. But here's an interesting thing. A year ago, Keith, the average mortgage payment for the average person buying a home, was 57% of their total income. Now that has dropped to about 44% of their total income. So I'm always looking at affordability and overall median pricing, and that's been a really, really good thing for us. As I had said, second tier markets where you can get affordability, but also great amenities, great lifestyle is where we've always focused on building, and it seems like that is really continuing to have a solid pulse. I love visiting some of those bigger markets, you know, taking my kids to Disney, but I'm glad we stayed out of there, because it seemed a little more temperamental, and we're glad we're in the more second tier markets.
Keith Weinhold 11:39
You cited an affordability index there earlier. Now, affordability still, historically, is not that good, but it's not as bad as it used to be. Tell us more about that index.
Jim Sheils 11:49
Yeah, I always have looked at, you know, the affordability index. Let's just use an example, Orange County, California. I think the median value of a home there is $1.1 million. In Jacksonville it's 305, and so you get a score for based on what is the average family income per price of the home. And it's kind of like your report card. And there's certain areas that have an A, and there's certain areas that have an F. You know, we have lots of investors come to us with you guys too, from New York or Seattle or Orange County. And this is something I look at, what is the affordability index, and just know how they figure out the score on your affordability index. What's the average price of the home in that area, and what is the average family income for that area? And the correlation of those two numbers shows whether you have a good score or bad score.
Keith Weinhold 12:39
And now that we've looked at the national picture somewhat, you mentioned some of the major metro markets in Florida, some of which you specifically stay out of, and that's simply because the numbers don't work for long term rentals. They don't provide cash flow. Tell us more, just in general, about some of the areas that you've chosen and why is there profitable for long term real estate investors?
Jim Sheils 13:03
Yeah, this median value, this affordability index, is so key when we're able to get into home still, you know, Jacksonville is barely over 300,000 as the media now, we're able to cash flow right off the bat. So like Jacksonville is still as the population growth, the economic growth is occurring. It's desirable coastal community, and supply and demand is in our favor. We don't have enough housing, so that's where we focus all of those factors, not only here, but on a smaller scale, in Palm Coast, in Ocala, where we've done a ton with the GRE community. And then southwest Florida. We don't go to Southeast Florida, too expensive, too overbuilt, too high on insurance, but that Greater Fort Myers area, which did experience the highest growth anywhere in the country during the pandemic, which was interesting to watch, we're still seeing a lot of good fundamentals down there. And again, at that affordable range, it makes a big difference when you're buying at a medium priced home is, let's say 320,000 opposed to 580,000 makes a huge difference to whether it will cash flow off the bat or have a negative cash flow. And as you know, Keith, even though we're doing new construction high growth areas, we want to see app cash flow right away.
Keith Weinhold 14:13
Now, you are a builder, you are adding much needed inventory to the national housing supply, where we've had a shortage of millions of units per years, depending on what source you cite in quote there, a lot of the estimates as to the housing shortage really are all over the place. But many sources state that Florida inventory levels just statewide. Here they are back about to pre pandemic levels. So they have recovered. They are back to about 2019 levels. And I think one important thing for people to remember is, well, 2019 was a pretty good, balanced housing market.
Jim Sheils 14:50
It was a normal market. We liked 2019 you know, that was a good market. There was growth, but it was sustainable, more predictable, steady. So I'm happy to be back in 2019. You know, 2020 21 levels there were, there was less than a month's worth of inventory on the MLS that it was dire. Yeah, it was just such a skewed thing. And you've studied this for a long time. So everyone if you say, Oh well, it went from this to this. I love how you talk about 2019 because by all statistics that was a very normal market here in Florida. So we're happy to get back to that, because you have to have a certain amount of inventory level to balance the playing field. We want to see growth, but I'm more of a long term player, as you know, we don't need to see huge spikes, because that can get a little volatile.
Keith Weinhold 15:36
Now, as a builder, talk to us about builder sentiment since, like we talked about before, we are in a falling interest rate environment, mortgage rates are already down about one and a half percent from the recent highs, and the Fed hasn't even begun lowering rates yet. So talk to us more about what those lower rates do to build their sentiment. And we're not just talking about rates for buyers here, which matter, but it's the rate that builders like you that have to pay the typically factory in here too.
Jim Sheils 16:06
Yeah, it's an interesting market right now, Keith, and here's something I want to give great encouragement from as you know, we do build some for the institutions and the larger groups. The little guy, the small investor, has the guerrilla warfare advantage over them right now, because, as you know, we right now have announced financing. We're able to have this builder forward commitment where we're buying large tranches of money for residential mortgages. That means, you know, individuals like we work with all the time, Keith, that buy a few properties, we can get them this incredible financing right now, at 3.75 we're beating the market. You know, you go into a B of A and try to get a duplex finance, you're probably looking at six and three quarters. And we're able to do that because it's residential real estate. Some of our bigger guys, they would buy all of our inventory. But we can't get a institution qualified for these individual investor loans for residential real estate. They have to go to the commercial world. And as you know right now, Keith, the commercial world is screwy. People aren't lending. The rates are really high, and even these big guys have to sharpen their pencils and do their numbers and they go, Gosh, it's not panning out until rates drop. So that means these bigger groups are on the sidelines. And we all hear the complaints, all the big guys are buying all the properties they own 40% well, they're on the sidelines, and our little troopers and investors are building their portfolios in ways they cannot so it's exciting to see now for us too. What's lucky and unlucky is a lot of good builders out there that we're friends with. They can't get financing. The banks have gotten so stringent. So they might even have a good balance sheet and a good track record, but the banks are getting really stringent where Chris and I are. As you know, we were partially acquired by Sumitomo forestry about a year and a half ago. They're a 331 year old company, and when we decided to team up with them, they said, We love Florida and we love build to rent, go, and so now we have zero bank debt, and they've given us a green light to build out all of our inventory. We have five, over 5000 lots in Florida, and we don't have the bank slowdowns. So to find a good builder, you have to make sure they have financing in place, because they're going to be a great builder out there that just can't get the funding to do the job for you. So that's another thing you want to look for.
Keith Weinhold 18:16
Right. And last time I checked, you've got more than 925 current independent income property investors, many of those whom are GRE listeners. Well, we're going to talk more about just how low those rates are. Who participates in the buy down? I already know that most of it's the builder, and just part of it is you, the investor. You're listening to get residuation. We're talking about Florida, build to rent property more when we come back, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out, instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their. Investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too, earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about Freedom Family investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.
Garrett Sutton 20:28
This is Rich Dad advisor, Garret Sutton, to grow your wealth. Listen to the always valuable. Get Rich Education.
Keith Weinhold 20:45
Welcome back to Get Rich Education we're talking about half of progress real estate investing in high growth Florida, with a renowned build to rent provider there. And I think a lot of this really comes down to trust with the fluctuating interest rate environment that we've had, some people don't trust certain builders or that investor to go ahead and put down a deposit on a vacant lot and wait 12 months or more for it to be built. But we're not talking about pre construction here.
Jim Sheils 21:16
No, no. Since we steamed up with Sumitomo, you know a lot of good builders again, they can't even start the project until they have a a buyer with a deposit down. That's the requirement for the bank to give them the money to start building. We don't have bank requirements, so we're building on our own dime, and so we are having properties completed before you even have to make an offer on them. So these are finished properties, sometimes a tenant already in place. I know just this month, there's been a few GRE people very happily stepping into pre rented homes. So you don't have to wait that period. If you're ready to move your money or have a 1031 exchange, we can fulfill those no problem, and close within 30 days Our in house financing, Keith, which I know we're about to go over, I want to make sure people know this is for not only our single families, but our duplexes and our quads as well.
Keith Weinhold 22:02
Tell us more about that in house financing that's something of great interest to people, and especially with these mortgage rate buyouts.
Jim Sheils 22:09
Yeah, everyone says, Oh, I wish I had locked into a mortgage before June of 2022 right? I mean, for every time we heard that, Keith, well, now you can and what we're able to do since we have the balance sheet we have now, with teaming up with this bigger company, banks will allow us to do what's called a builder forward commitment and buy large tranches of money. We're in the money buying business, I guess, now, and we have to commit to large amounts of money, but by doing that, we're able to pay fees upfront to buy down the mortgages. So right now, our most popular rate is 3.75. You as the buyer, and these are called discount points, which I've heard Keith talk about. You're bringing in a little under two discount points to get the 3.75 rate. And you say, Okay, well, Jim, we're bringing in a little less than two points. What are you bringing in? We're not really supposed to talk about that, but here's what I can tell you, do this test, go to one of your mortgage friends, or your B of A or Wells Fargo, and ask it what it will take for you to pay to buy down a rate for 3.75. Now, first of all, they will not allow you to do that much. We are on a more high volume schedule that will allow us to do that, but let's say, if they would, here's what the feedback we've got. If you were to try to do this on your own, Keith, you or I just walking into our bank, you would have to pay anywhere from 12 to 15 points to make this happen. Gosh, and that was the advantage of working as a collective group like we do together, you and I in our investor community, because now that we're able to do volume, it benefits us
Keith Weinhold 23:39
all. No one really knows where interest rates are going to go. I think it's pretty foolish to try to predict them, but very few people think they're ever going to drop to the levels that we saw during the depths of the pandemic, 3.75% if you get locked in there, it's pretty unlikely that the future market is going to meet that down the road at all and tell us more about that product type, the single family homes, duplexes and fourplexes that this is available on. And of course, they're all new build.
Jim Sheils 24:09
Yeah, we do a combination of new build on all of these. We found, Keith, a lot of build to rent. Companies really only focused on the single family home, but we found, you know, to increase rental yield and overall returns. There was really a lack in the market for duplexes in residential areas and quads, again, and those are close to commercial deals, without the commercial financing, they allow more affordable rent in more residential areas that people can afford and want to be in. And we found through the pandemic, these had a greater calling to them than, let's say, a large apartment complex. You know, people want to be a little more spread out, have their own yard, like in a duplex, and they get that there, but they get it at a fraction of the price that a complete single family home would be at. So we found, as you know, most of our investors, our average client, buys three to eight properties with us, and no surprise, they. Buy a mixture of single family duplex and quads. I know we agree on this. Keith, the single family home has had the best history of all of great equity appreciation, and the duplex might lag behind that a little bit, but it's got a better cash flow. So I will always do little trade offs and combo my own portfolio to make up for two of those. And that's what our counselors usually coach our people. I know yours do as well.
Keith Weinhold 25:23
Yeah, the economies of scale for the real estate investor really can be there long term with duplexes and fourplexes, and you're really helping fill a need. Some months ago, I talked about the mmm multi families, missing middle, about how so few duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes are being built today, as compared to when you had about three times as much construction in those property types that you did in the 1980s a lot of that's really gone away. You're really bringing it back. We talk about some of the areas where these are built. You know, Jim years ago? Well, really about 10 years ago, when I began this show, I was often talking about how I want to be invested in Metro statistical areas that have a population of at least 500,000 to 1 million people, in order to get a diversity of economic situations there, because you do need rent paying tenants. But so much has changed since then, starting four to five years ago, with the work from home movement, I'm more open to more outlying areas than I had been previously. So tell us about some of these areas that you choose to build in. In Florida.
Jim Sheils 26:29
yeah, you know our hub market where we started doing rehabs many, many, many years ago was Jacksonville, Florida. Yeah, and we still are headquartered here, but Jacksonville, again, is the most affordable coastal city, I believe, still on the East Coast, which brings great fundamentals. It hits both of your things, Keith, where it is larger, but it has more of a sprawl and that larger population and the fundamentals look really well again, that overall median price is still very low. And we branch down to Palm Coast, which is a little more of a higher end area, but a bedroom community, to Jacksonville, the silent soldier, the one that really surprised us the most. I think you remember, this was Ocala. In fact, when Christopher said, Do you want to go start building Ocala, and this is about a decade ago, I said, Wow, Ocala, isn't there only, like, some horses out there? Yeah, now he's a horse guy. So he laughed, and he said, Oh, sure enough, I put my foot in my mouth. But Ocala, the amount of growth that we've seen out there has been incredible. And Ocala is really well placed because it's just below Gainesville, where the, you know, there's the medical centers, the university, and it's just north of the villages, which is the second largest retirement community and growing. Not only that, it has its own economic infrastructure, but it's really well placed in the difference of a price of a home for a starter family in Ocala compared to like Northern Tampa. There is no comparison. You're talking half. So we like that. And also with rents, it's got a great lifestyle. And then southwest Florida again, Southwest Florida, Keith, we're very lucky that we took some risk there. A lot of builders would like to be building down there, but as you remember, we took some big risks in 2020 we talked to some of our friends and said, this can be really good or really bad for real estate. We went with the really good and we loaded up on, well, a lot, over $20 million worth of land at the pre jump prices. Now we're into land right down there so we can get them built right for you guys still make a margin for ourselves that other people that they're trying to get land today, they just can't do and Southwest Florida has been a really good market for us. Had that hurricane there a few years ago, and all of our new construction properties did well. In fact, of almost 300 properties that were under construction, we had four that needed insurance claims, and those four, Keith, well, we had just put up the freestanding walls. We hadn't been able to tie the roof on before the winds and the winds knocked the walls over, and that's it. But there was no flooding, and that's why you get an insurance break. And all the markets that we're in, we always hear, Oh, you can't get insurance in Florida. And I kind of giggle and say, on which properties? Because there is a very different treatment for a new construction property built 2004 or newer, compared to a property built 1957 on lower ground.
Keith Weinhold 29:02
Yeah this is such an important thing to bring up. Property insurance premiums have been hiked substantially on Florida, existing, older build properties, not the post 2004 ones like Jim is talking about here and yeah, for those that don't know, Ocala, there in Central Florida is known as an equestrian area for horses and your business partner, Chris, that's his big hobby. So yeah, when you first went there, you were with Chris. You were like, are you just trying to get there because you want to be around horses more and what? But now there's actually a good fundamental reason for this, where it makes sense to build there. Well, Jim, why don't you talk about how you've specifically helped one of our listeners, or the typical buyer there in how that process looks, including an approximate timeline to get them from the time where they submit an offer all the way through to closing.
Jim Sheils 29:52
Yeah. Well, you know, our team and your team work together. We want to make sure we set people's goals and expectations. Up front. What are you looking for? What are you trying to get into? If someone says to me, Look, I'm looking to get into a great starter home with the lowest basis and highest cash flow, I'm gonna say, Okay, let's look at Ocala. They say, Look, we're looking more long term. I'm more of an equity growth player. Yeah, I want cash flow. I'm gonna say, Okay, let's look at Palm Coast, or southwest Florida. Together with our teams and our property counselors, we try to assess what are your needs and where are you wanting to go. Now, all of our vehicles will get through there, but some a little better than others, depending on the plan you want to put together. And so once we do do that, what we like to do is go through properties that seem to match what they're most wanting. We'll go through the performance. We'll look up the site maps, we'll go through the different fundamentals of that direct area, and then, if it seems to make sense, first thing we got to do is get you pre qualified with our in house lender. All is that a go? Well, then we can make an offer, get it in. We have a whole onboarding process. You know that we've done hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of time, and now we're over. I know I laugh because we talked recently and you said, I think you're at a 925. Investors, we're over 1000 now, so we're continuing to grow. But again, we've tried to make it fluid, where our people are part of the process, but never alone. We answer the questions on the financing help get you the directionals on the insurance now, you can use whatever insurance company you want. 99% of them use the company that we recommend. We have no financial affiliation with them. But everyone asked years ago when Chris and I started this, well, who do you use for insurance? Who do you use? So we just gave them who we used, and this person usually undercuts and better coverage than most. So all those pieces Keith with going through that and again, this is about a 30 day process of getting qualified, once you pick the property, submitting the contract with your 10% deposit, doing your onboarding for Property Management and Insurance pieces. And then, obviously you don't have to come here to see us for closing. We do all of our traveling closings for you. And most important thing I like to set up with PM is, where do you want the money wired?
Keith Weinhold 31:59
That's a great question. Well, yeah, I mean, this is a great answer for so many of our listeners, those super attractive rate buy downs. And then the big thing is, is, in many cases, you're not waiting and waiting and waiting months for the build to take place. Well, Jim, before I tell our listeners how they can connect with you over there, do you have any last thoughts overall with anything that we did touch on or did not.
Jim Sheils 32:22
I want to encourage people, if they're not looking to get in the next to real estate in the next two to three years, not a big deal. But if you're looking to get in sometime over the next year, then I would really look at what's happening, things you talk about with the rates and the interest, because I do believe that institutional money within the next six months, it'll be interesting when we reconnect, Keith, that are going to start coming in and buying up more residential real estate. However, their hands are tied right now. They cannot get the financing that the smaller guy can. So whether it's with us or someone else, take advantage. Take advantage. David and Goliath, this is a great opportunity where the big guys cannot keep up with you, because they can't get the financing and insurance rates that you can so take advantage.
Keith Weinhold 33:03
Well, I specifically wanted to have you on today because it is an opportunistic time. They serve Florida with new builds. Learn more about their properties and even get some under contract. If you so wish, you can do so by contacting your GRE investment coach. If you don't have one yet, you can do so at GREmarketplace.com it is free or at GREmarketplace.com/florida. Jim, it's been great having you back on the show.
Jim Sheils 33:32
Thanks having me. Keith, good seeing you.
Keith Weinhold 33:39
Yeah, an excellent update on Florida build to rent properties. A lot of our listeners are asking about these new build properties with 3.75% mortgage interest rates, and you are not the majority participant in the rate buy down either. Next week, who I consider the foremost tax authority in the entire world will be back here with us. Tom Wheelwright is going to discuss presidential candidates, tax plans, whether you should be scared about a tax on unrealized gains and a lot more. Also on a future episode, I'm going to talk about the land that is the vacant land that comes along with your rental property, what to look out for and what to avoid. It's really a little discussed subject that we haven't talked about here before. To learn more about Florida, build to rent property with those attractive rate buydowns, start at GRE marketplace.com Until next week, every host, Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.
34:45
Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have. Potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC, exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 35:13
The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Getricheducation.com
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Futurist, Technologist and Author of many titles including the classic “Wealth and Poverty”, George Gilder joins us to discuss supply side economics and the transformative potential of using graphene material in various industries including real estate.
We discuss economic growth measured by time prices, showing that private sector progress is faster than GDP estimates.
Learn about graphene's properties, including its strength and conductivity, and its potential to transform various industries.
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms that is 200 times stronger than steel, 1000 times more conductive than copper and the world’s thinnest material.
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Complete episode transcript:
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Keith Weinhold 00:01
Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. I'm talking about the various economic scare tactics out there, like the BRICS, the FDIC and the housing crash. What lower interest rates mean? How our nation's $35 trillion debt has gone galactic. Then today's guest is a legend. He's a technologist and futurist. It tells us about today's promise of graphene in real estate all today on get rich education. when you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. Oh, at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content in your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text, GRE to 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter, and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.
Corey Coates 01:40
you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.
Keith Weinhold 01:56
Welcome to GRE from Dunedin, Florida to Dunedin, New Zealand and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, where real estate investing is our major. That's what we're here for, with minors in real estate economics and wealth mindset. You know, as a consumer of this media type as you are, it's remarkable how often you've probably encountered these de facto scare tactics, like the BRICS are uniting and it will take out the dollar and it's just going to be chaos in the United States. You might know that BRICS, B, R, I, C, S is the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Do you know how hard it is to get off the petro dollar and how hard it is for the BRICS, which is basically more than just those five countries, it's dozens of countries. How hard it is for them to agree on anything with things as various as their different economies, and they'll have different customs and currencies. I mean, sheesh, just for you to get yourself and three friends all to agree to meet at the same coffee shop at the same time, takes, like a Herculean effort, plus a stroke of luck, and all full of you are like minded, so I wouldn't hold your breath on the dollar hyper inflating to worthlessness, although it should slowly debase. What about the scare tactic of the FDIC is going to implode, and this could lead to bank closures and widespread societal panic. Well, the FDIC, which stands for Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, they're the body that backs all of the US bank deposits, including yours, and it's steered by their systemic resolution Advisory Committee. Well, there are $9 trillion in bank deposits, and is backed by only a few 100 billion in FDIC cash, so there aren't nearly enough dollars to back the deposits. So can you trust your money in the bank? That's a prevalence scare tactic, but my gosh, if nothing else, history has shown that the government will step in to backstop almost any crisis, especially a banking related one, where one failure can have a cascading effect and make other institutions fall. I'm not saying that this is right, but time has proven that the government does and will step in, or the common scare tactic in our core of the world that is the eminent housing price crash. And I define a crash as a loss in value of 20% or more. Do you know how difficult this would be to do anytime soon? Housing demand still outstrips supply. Today's homeowners have loads of protective equity, an all time high of about 300k so they're not walking away from their homes. Inflation has baked higher replacement costs into the real estate cake, and now mortgage rates have fallen one and a half percent from this cycle's highs, and they are poised to fall further, so a housing price crash is super unlikely, and a new scare tactic for media attention seems to be this proposal by a future presidential hopeful about a tax on unrealized gains. Now Tom wheelwright is the tax expert. He's returning to the show with us again soon here, so maybe I'll ask him about it. But a tax on unrealized gains is politically pretty unpopular. It would be a mess to impose, and a lot of others have proposed it in the past as well, and it has not gone anywhere. Plus tax changes need congressional approval, and we have a divided Congress, there's a small chance that attacks on unrealized gains could come to fruition, but it would be tough. It's probably in the category of just another media scare tactic, much like the BRICS and the shaky FDIC banking structure had a housing price crash. I like to keep you informed about these things, and at times we do have guests with a disparate opinion from mine on these things. Good to get a diversity of opinions, but it's best not to go too deep into these scare tactics that are really unlikely to happen any time soon. Well, there was a party going on 10 days ago at what all affectionately dub club fed in Jacksonhole Wyoming, I don't know what the club fed cover charge was, but fortunately, we did not have to watch Janet "Grandma" Yellen dance at Club fed and and share. Jerome Powell, yes, he finally caught a rate cut buzz. He announced that the time has come for interest rate cuts, and as usual, he didn't offer specifics. Total rager. what a party. later this month, he's going to render the long awaited decision, which now seems to be, how much will cut rates by a quarter point or a half point? Did you know that it's been four and a half years since the Fed lowered rates? Yeah, that was March of 2020, at the start of the pandemic. And then we know what happened back in 2022 and 2023 they hiked rates so much that they needed trail mix, a sleeping bag and some Mountain House freeze dried meals to go along with their steady hiking cycle. Interest rates now, though have been untouched for over a year, it's been an interesting year for the Fed and rates many erroneously thought there would be six or more rate cuts this year. And what about Maganomics? Trump recently said that if he becomes president, he should be able to weigh in on fed decisions that would depart from a long time tradition of Fed independence from executive influence. Historically, they've been separated.
Donald Trump 08:26
The Federal Reserve's a very interesting thing, and it's sort of gotten it wrong a lot. And he's tending to be a little bit later on things. He gets a little bit too early and a little bit too late. And, you know, that's very largely a it's a gut feeling. I believe it's really a gut feeling. And I used to have it out with him. I had it out with him a couple of times, very strongly. I fought him very hard. And, you know, we get along fine. We get along fine. But I feel that, I feel the president should have at least say in there. Yeah, I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. Iwas very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.
Keith Weinhold 09:10
Those Trump remarks were just a few weeks ago, and then shortly afterward, he seemed to walk those comments back, but he did say that he would not reappoint. DJ J-pal, to the economic turntables. It's a long standing economic argument as well about whether an outside force like the Fed should set interest rates at all, which is the price of money, rather than allowing the rate to float with the free market as lenders and borrowers negotiate with each other. I mean, no one's out there setting the price of oil or refrigerators or grapes, but it is pretty remarkable that the Fed has signaled that rate cuts are eminent when inflation is still 2.9% well above their 2% target. But let's be mindful about the Fed's twofold mission, what they call their dual mandate. It is stable prices and maximum employment. Well, the Fed's concern is that second one, it's that the labor market has slowed and see the way it works is pretty simple. Lower interest rates boost employment because it's cheaper for businesses to borrow money that encourages them to expand and hire, which is exactly how lower interest rates help the labor market. That's how more people get hired, and this matters because you need a tenant that can pay the rent. So the bottom line here is to expect lower interest rates on savings accounts, HELOCs, credit cards and automobile loans. What this means to real estate investors is that lower mortgage rates are eminent, although the change should be slow. Two years ago, mortgage rates rose faster than they're going to fall. Now, one thing that lower interest rates can do is lower America's own debt. Servicing costs and America's public debt is drastic. Now, between 35 and $36 trillion in fact, to put our debt into perspective, it has gone galactic. And I mean that in an almost literal sense, because look, if you line up dollars, dollar bills, which are about six inches long, if you line those up end to end from Earth, how far do you think that they would reach? How about to the moon? Oh, no, if you line up dollars end to end, they would stretch beyond the moon. Okay, let's see how far we can follow them out through the solar system. They would breeze past Mars, which is 140 million miles away, the next planet out Jupiter. Oh, our trail of dollar bills would extend beyond that. Next up is Saturn and its ring. The dollar bills would reach beyond that. We're getting to the outer planets now, Uranus still going. Neptune, okay, Neptune is about $30 trillion bills away, and we would have to go beyond that then. So our 35 to $36 trillion of national debt would almost reach Pluto that's galactic. That's amazing. That's bad, and it probably means we have to print more dollars in order to pay back the debt, which is, of course, long term inflationary. And I don't know what's stopping us from going from $36 trillion up to say, 100 trillion, gosh. next week here on the show, we're talking about real estate investing in one of the long time best and still hottest real estate investor states, and then later on, we've got brilliant tax wizard Tom wheelwright returning, as we know here at GRE real estate pays five ways, and if you have any Spanish speaking family or friends, I've got a great way for them to consume all five video modules. It's an AI converting my voice to Spanish in these videos, we have a Spanish speaker here on staff at Get Rich Education, and she said the dub is pretty good. Well, the entire package, real estate pays five ways in Espanol is condensed into a powerful one hour total, all five videos a course, all in one wealth building hour. It's free to watch. There's no email address to enter or anything you can tell your Spanish speaking family and friends, or maybe your multilingual and your primary language is Spanish. That is it getricheducation.com/espanolricheducation.com/espanol or a shorter way to get to the same pageis getricheducation.com/espricheducation.com/esp, that's getricheducation.com/esp.richeducation.com/esp. This week's guest is one of the first people I ever heard discussing the blockchain and cryptocurrency 15 years ago, and then he was early on AI. What got my attention is his education about a promising construction material for building new real estate, though, I expect that our discussion will delve outside of real estate today as well. Let's meet the incomparable George Gilder. This week's guest is the co founder at the Discovery Institute, discovery.org original pillar of supply side economics, former speechwriter to both Presidents Reagan and Nixon. And he's the author of the classic book on economics called Wealth and Poverty. Today he's at the forefront of technological breakthroughs. He's a Harvard grad. He wears a lot of stripes. I've only mentioned a few. Hey, welcome to GRE George Gilder.
George Gilder 15:09
right there better here.
Keith Weinhold 15:11
It's so good to host you, George, in both your writings and your influences on people like President Reagan, you champion supply side economics. And I think of supply side economics as things like lower taxes, less regulation and free trade. We had someone in the Reagan administration here with us a few months ago, David Stockman. He championed a lot of those same things. But go ahead and tell us more about supply side economics and what that means and how that's put into practice.
George Gilder 15:43
Well, it really begins with human creativity in the image of your Creator, essence of supply side economics now super abundant. I mean supply side economics triumphs. We had the whole information technology revolution ignited during the Reagan years and now dominates the world economy and gives the United States seven out of the top 10 companies in market cap. 70% of global corporate market cap is American companies because of supply side economics amazing, and that's why it's distressing to see supply side economics, with its promise of super abundance and prosperity and opportunity, Give way to narrow nationalistic calculations and four tenths of war. I mean, all these Jews are at the forefront. Today, in time, we're going to see human creativity once again prevail in my books, Life After Capitalism is my latest book, my new paradigm is graphene. Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms, two dimensional layer of carbon atoms that is 200 times stronger than steel, 1000 times more conductive than copper. It switches and the terahertz trillions of times a second, rather than the billions of times a second that our current silicon chips which and you mix it with concrete, the concrete comes 35% stronger, just parts per million of graphene mixed with concrete yields some material that's 35% stronger than ordinary concrete. You mix a parts per million of graphene with asphalt, the roads don't get potholes in the winter. It's radically Abate, but it conducts signals so accurately. If you go on YouTube, you can find a mouse and said it's spinal cord severed completely, injected with graphene, the spinal signals transmitted so accurately that the you see the mouse doing cartwheels by the end of the YouTube measure. I mean, it's material that's going to transform all industries, from real estate to medicine to surgery to electronics. Electronics been kind of the spearhead of our economy, of the transformation and electronics may be more significant than any other domain.
Keith Weinhold 18:49
Well, this is a terrific overview of all the contributions you're making to both the economic world and the technology world with what you told us about right there. And I do want to ask you some more about the graphene and the technology later. But you know, if we bring it back to the economics, it was in your classic book, Wealth and Poverty, which sold over a million copies, where you espouse a lot of the same things that you still espouse today in your more recent books, that is, capitalism begins with giving, we can often think of it that way. As a real estate investor is where we need to give tenants a clean, safe, affordable, functional property before we profit. Capitalism begins with giving.
George Gilder 19:32
Absolutely. That's a crucial debate I had with Ayn Rand The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged and I say, capitalism is subsist on altruism. I'm concerned for the interests of others, imaginative anticipation of the needs of others. It's an altruistic, generous system, and from that generosity. Stems the amazing manifestations of super abundance that which I've been writing about recently. And super abundance shows, measured by time prices, how many hours a typical worker has to spend to earn the goods and services that sustain its life. Yeah, that's where the real cost has time. Yeah, time is money. Money is time, tokenized time, and measured by time, economic growth has been 50 to just enormously faster than is estimated by any of the GDP numbers. However, measured by time government services or ordinary GDP assumes that every dollar of government spending is worth what it costs. Prices both show that progress in the private sector has been four or five times faster than is estimated by GDP well government time, price of government dominated goods, including, increasingly, healthcare and education, is way less valuable than the cost. It's value subtracted, and certainly trillions of dollars for windmills and solar panels, trillions of dollars of subsidies is a net subtraction of value in the world economy. So I am with Gale Pooley and Tupy, both who wrote a book called Superabundance that I wrote the introduction to, and William Nordhaus, the Nobel laureate from Yale, who really conceived and developed time prices and showed that economic growth is 1000s of times greater than has been estimated by ordinary economic data. This is a time of abundance. It's not a time of scarcity. It's not a time of the dismal science. It's the time of super abundance.
Keith Weinhold 22:17
Yes, 100% a lot of that is just the government getting out of the way and really let people be givers, be that go giver and lead with giving, because I have never heard of a society that's taxed its way to prosperity.
George Gilder 22:34
Yeah. Well, that's absolutely the case. And I've been talking previously about graphene, which is the great new material that has been discovered of the last a couple decades. It originated, a lot of the science originated in Jim Tour's laboratory. James Tour of Rice University, and he's had scores of companies have emerged from his laboratory, and 18 of them got started in Israel. Israel is really become a leading force in the world economy. And when Israel is in jeopardy, our economy is in jeopardy. We have 100,000 Israeli citizens working in companies in Silicon Valley, 100,000 all the leading American tech companies have outposts in Israel, and now we face what I call the Israel test, which is how you respond to people who are really superior in creativity and accomplishment and intellect, and the appropriate thing to do is emulate them and learn from them. But too many people in the world see success and they want to tear it down, or they think it was stolen from someone else, or it was part of a zero sum game where the riches of one person necessarily come at the expense of someone else, which is the opposite of the truth, the riches proliferate opportunities for others. That's how the economy grows through the creativity and the image of your Creator.
Keith Weinhold 24:25
And when you bring up Israel, they're one of many nations that's made strong contributions to society and the economy, and we think about other nations that's been an increasingly relevant conversation these past few years, a lot of that centers on immigration. I'm not an expert on how many people we should let into this country or any of those sort of policy sorts of things, but here is a real estate investing show. I often think about where and how we're going to house all these immigrants, whether they come from Central America or South America or Israel or. Anywhere else. And I know oftentimes you've touted immigrations economic benefits, so I think it's pretty easy for one to see how in the short term, immigrants could be of economic detriment, but tell us more about those long term economic benefits of immigrants coming to the United States.
George Gilder 25:17
Immigrants come to the United States and become Americans and contribute American opportunity and wealth. We won the second world war because of immigration of Jewish scientists from Europe to the United States, who led by people like John von Neumann and Oppenheimer who forged the Manhattan Project, and that's really how we won the Second World War, was by accepting brilliant immigrants who wanted to serve America. Now there is a threat today where immigrants come to the United States not to contribute to the United States, but to exploit the United States, or even destroy it, not to go givers. They are givers, and so we want immigrants who are inclined to commit to America and create opportunities for the world, but immigrants who want to tear down America and who believe that America owes them something tend to be less productive and less valuable immigrants and immigrants who really want to destroy western civilization, and the jihadists that we know about are actually a threat to America. So the immigration problem isn't simple, but when we had a system where legal immigrants could apply and enter our country and revitalize it, that was a wonderful system, but having boards of illegal immigrants just pour over the border is not an intelligent way to deal with the desire of people around the world to share an American prosperity.
Keith Weinhold 27:13
We've seen several cases in the past year or two where immigrants are given free housing. There are really great case studies about this in Massachusetts and some other places, how they're giving housing before oftentimes, our own Americans, including sometimes retired veterans, are provided with housing. This all comes down to the housing crunch and already having a low housing supply. So what are some more your thoughts about just how much of a layup or a handout should we give new immigrants?
George Gilder 27:42
Housing technology is going to be transformed by the material science revolution that is epitomized by graphene, this miracle material I was describing. I think part of the problem is real estate enterprise is over regulated, and there are too many obstacles to the building of innovative new forms of housing. In 20 years, it'll be hard to recognize many of the structures that emerge as a result of real revolution in material science that is epitomized by this graphene age that I've been describing, and that also will transform electronics as well, and part housing can become a kind of computer platform as Elon Musk is transforming the auto business by seeing Tesla is really a new form of computer platform. I believe there's going to be an Elon Musk of real estate who is going to re envisage housing as a new form of building a computer platform that makes intelligent houses of the future that will be both cheaper and more commodious for human life.
Keith Weinhold 29:12
Real estate is rather old and slow moving when we think about technology in real estate, maybe what comes to mind are smart thermostats, smart doorbells, or 3d printed homes. When we come back, we're going to learn more about graphene and what it can do in real estate in the nanocosm revolution. Our guest is George Gilder. We talked about economics. We're coming back to talk about technology. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.
Keith Weinhold
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Dolf Deroos 31:19
This is the king of commercial real estate. Dolph de Roos, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.
Keith Weinhold 31:32
Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're joined by an illustrious, legendary guest, George Gilder, among being other things, including a prolific writer. He's also the former speechwriter to presidents Reagan and Nixon. He's got a really illustrious and influential career. George, you've been talking about graphene, something that I don't think our audience is very familiar with, and I'm not either. Tell us about graphene promise in real estate.
George Gilder 31:59
Well, back in Manchester, England, in 2004 graphene was first discovered and formulated. It actually was submerged before then, but the Nobel Prizes were awarded to Geim and Novoselov in2010. So this is a new material that all of us know when we use a lead pencil, a lead is graphite, and graphene is a single layer of graphite. And it turns out, many people imagined if you had a single layer of graphite, it would just break up. It would not be useful.
Keith Weinhold 32:42
We're talking super thin, like an atom.
George Gilder 32:45
Yeah, it's an atom thick, but still, it turns out that it has miraculous properties, that it's 200 times stronger than steel. If you put it in a trampoline, you couldn't see the trampoline, but you could bounce on it without go following through it. It can stop bullets. It means you can have invisible and almost impalpable bulletproof vests, and you mix it with concrete, and the concrete is becomes 35% stronger, even parts per million of graphene can transform the tensile strength of concrete, greatly reduce the amount you need, and enable all sorts of new architectural shapes and capabilities. We really are in the beginning of a new technological age, and all depressionary talk you hear is really going to be eclipsed over coming decades by the emergence of whole an array of new technologies, graphene, for instance, as a perfect film on wafer of silicon carbide and enable what's called terahertz electronics, which is trillions of cycles a second like light rather than billions of cycles a second like or Nvidia or L silicon chips, and it really obviates chips, because you what it allows is what's called wafer scale integration of electronics, and today, it the semiconductor industry, and I've written 10 books on semiconductors over the years, but the semiconductor industry functions by 12 inch wafers that get inscribed with all sorts of complex patterns that are a billionth of a meter in diameter. These big wafers and then the way. First get cut up into 1000s of little pieces that each one gets encapsulated in plastic packages and by some remote Asian islands, and then get implanted on printed circuit boards that arrayed in giant data centers that now can on track to consume half the world's energy over the next 20 years, and these new and all this technology is ultimately going to be displaced by wafer scale integration on The wafer itself. You can have a whole data center on a 12 inch wafer with no chips. It's on the wafer itself. And this has been recently announced in a paper from Georgia Tech by a great scientist named Walter de Heere. And it's thrilling revolution that that render as much as Silicon Valley obsolescent and opens up just huge opportunities in in construction and real estate and architecture and medicine and virtually across the range of contemporary industry.
Keith Weinhold 36:20
You wrote a book about blockchain and how we're moving into the post Google world is what you've called it. So is this graphene technology that you're discussing with us here? Is that part of the next thing, which you're calling the nanocosm revolution?
George Gilder 36:36
The microcosm was an earlier book the quantum revolution and economics and technology. I thought I wrote years ago called microcosm.
Keith Weinhold 36:46
Okay, we're getting smaller than microcosm now in nanocosm.
36:49
that was microns, that was millionths of a meter dimensions of the transistors and devices and silicon chips, the nanocosm is a billionth of the meter. It's 1000 times smaller the features and electronics of the future, and we're moving from the microcosm into the nanocosm. New materials like graphene epitomize this transformation. You know, people think that these giant data centers all around the world, which are amazing structures, but half the energy in these data centers are devoted to removing the heat rather than fueling the computation. And I believe these data centers are represent a kind of IBM mainframe of the current era. When I was coming up, people imagined that a few 100 IBM mainframe computers, each weighing about a ton, would satisfy all the world's needs for computation, and that new artificial minds could be created with these new IBM mainframes. And it's the same thing today, only we're talking about data centers, and I believe that the coming era will allow data centers in your pocket and based on graphene electronics, and wait for scale integration, a whole new paradigm that will make the current data centers look like obsolete, old structures that need to be revitalized.
Keith Weinhold 38:37
Around 2007 Americans and much of the world, they got used to how it feels to have the power of a computer in their pocket with devices like the iPhone. How would it change one's everyday life to have effectively a data center in their pocket?
38:54
This means that we no longer would be governments of a few giant companies hearing a singular model of intelligence. That's what's currently envisaged, that Google Brain or Facebook or these giant data setters would sum up all human intelligence and in a particular definition, but there are now 8 billion human beings on earth, and each of our minds is as densely connected as the entire global internet. And while the global Internet consumes error watts, trillions of watts of power, or brains. Each of these 8 billion human minds functions on 12 to 14 watts, or it's billions of times less than these data center systems. On the internet. I believe that technology works to the extent that it expands human capabilities, not to the extent that it displaces human capabilities. The emergence of distributed databases in all our pockets, distributed knowledge and distributed creativity can revitalize the whole world economy and open new horizons that are hard to imagine today, as long as we don't, all of a sudden decide that we live in a material universe where everything is scarce and successes by one person come at the expense of somebody else, as long as that zero sum model doesn't prevail, right? Human opportunities are really unlimited. Most of economics has been based on a false model of scarcity, the only thing that's really scarce is time. Imagination and creativity are really infinite.
Keith Weinhold 41:10
Yes, well, if someone wants to learn more about graphene in the nanocosm revolution, how can you help them? What should they do?
41:18
They can read my newsletters. I have a company with four newsletters. I write the Gilder Technology Report. Much of the time I write, John Schroeder writes moonshots, which is and I have a Gilder Private Reserve that reaches out with our crowd and Israel, and a lot of those graph gene companies in Israel are part of our Private Reserve. And I do Gilders Guide posts, and those are all available getgilder.com.
Keith Weinhold 41:56
if you'd like to learn more about George and his popular newsletter called the Gilder Technology Report. You can learn more about that at get gilder.com George, it's been an enlightening conversation about economics and where society is moving next. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.
George Gilder 42:16
Thank you, Keith. I really appreciate it.
Keith Weinhold 42:24
yeah, a forward looking discussion with the great George Gilder. Forbes said graphene may be the next multi trillion dollar material. George will tell you that you want to get into graphene now, while the biggest gains are still ahead. If it interests you in at least learning more, check out his video resource. It's free. There's also an opportunity for you to be an investor. You can do all of that and more at getgilder.com again getguilder.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. Don't Quit Your Daydream.
43:04
nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC, exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 43:32
The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. GetRichEducation.com
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In this episode Keith shares the survey results on what the highest rising cost for landlords is and what to do about it. He challenges the conventional wisdom that all debts should be paid off.
He talks about how the rising costs of homeowners insurance and property taxes are the most significant expenses for single family landlords
76% of single-family landlords plan to raise rents over the next 12 months, with 35% expecting increases over 4%.
Learn about the concept of debt as leverage and its role in wealth building. The importance of liquidity, interest rate arbitrage, and the ability to outsource debt payments.
How inflation impacts debt.
Understand the benefits of debt in real estate investment, including the ability to own more properties and create arbitrage opportunities.
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Complete episode transcript:
Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai
Keith Weinhold 00:00
Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. The economy is affecting real estate in some interesting ways. Now, vital trends revealed from a survey of single family landlords. Then the heart of today's show is every debt that you have worth paying off. The answer is no, with some surprising reasons all today on Get Rich Education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies, disclaimers. Oh, had no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself, it's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text, GRE 66866 and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called The Don't quit your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.
Corey Coates 01:34
You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.
Keith Weinhold 01:51
Welcome to GRE you are listening to the voice of real estate investing since 2014 I'm your host, Keith Weinhold back to help you build your wealth for another week. This is Get Rich Education. That's just one of many things that makes this show different from other shows, or just consuming news stories. Here, you stay updated on important real estate investing trends, but you learn specific strategies to actionably build your wealth. That's the difference, and it's with the most generationally proven medium of real estate, all without you having to be a flipper and often not a landlord either. Now, presidential candidates make lots of promises during their campaigns, that includes with real estate here recently, even if you're listening 10 years from now, I'll tell you how to put something like this into perspective. Kamala Harris unveiled her plan to spur the construction of 3 million more housing units. That's a good thing. America needs more housing. She also wants to give federal assistance, and by the way, that means your money. She wants to give federal assistance in the form of a $25,000 down payment help for first time home buyers. I see that as a bad thing, and see there's no partisan bias here at GRE a lot of media outlets, they will filter something like this is all good or all bad, because they get better ratings when they rile people up, and that results in a divided America. But the problem is that the 25k of down payment help that can be delivered faster than new homes can be built, and that risks pushing up home prices faster, sooner, which arose the very affordability that's trying to be helped here now a presidential candidate, be it Kamala Harris or anyone when they have this enthusiasm to also limit price gouging at grocery stores here, like this candidate does. I mean, that's the beginning of price controls, and when there are price controls, no farmer is going to want to produce cherry tomatoes or Fisher is going to want to produce wild caught salmon if they have a significant price ceiling limiting the supply of those things. Therefore, I mean, when we had price controls in the high inflation 70s, that created shortages. And it's important to keep in mind that presidential campaign promises, they often don't become policies that are enacted even if that person is elected president, and even if they are, much of this still requires congressional approval, and we still have a divided Congress, and any tax changes require the approval of Congress. So really, this stuff is just a presidential wish list, giving you some perspective here. Now on the topic of shortages, there still is not enough available supply of US homes, active listings, those seeking a starter home often get more worn out than your grandpa after two games of checkers. But inventory levels are not as bad as they used to be, we still got a ways to go to claw back close to a more normal, balanced pre pandemic housing supply level nationally, we are still 29% lower. There are now still 29% fewer active listings than there were in pre pandemic times and most individual states still have inventory levels lower than that, too, compared to five years ago, when we break it down by state, some have a more paltry supply than others, though, places with the scarcest inventory, they seem To be those states where maple syrup gets produced, as it turns out, and I sure hope that this doesn't mean people need to sleep in the sugar shack. Connecticut is down 75% that means they have 75% less inventory than five years ago, pre pandemic, Illinois down 66%, New Jersey down 57%, Virginia down 53%, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Michigan all with 51% less inventory than they had pre pandemic. Ohio down 43%, California and Missouri each down 31%. The main problem here is that the Northeast and Midwest have not had enough home building in order to keep up with housing demand. I guess what? There were too many snow days in the Northeast and Midwest, or were builders constantly distracted by potholes and cicadas? Conversely, there are three popular investor states where for sale inventory is just a tad higher now than it was five years ago. Texas is up 6%, Florida up 5%, Tennessee up 2% and this doesn't mean that these states are oversupplied with housing, it just means that they have a touch more than they did in 2019 so they're closer to balance. The important overall thing to remember here is, of course, that nationally, buyers still outnumber sellers. So between the lower mortgage rates that we've had in the past year and the low supply, this keeps the environment ripe. There will be more offers and more potential for home prices to increase faster than its current rate of 4.1%. That 4.1% year over year, as per the NAR, it's important for you to understand that there's virtually no way that prices can revert to their pre pandemic levels. Home prices are not going back to where they used to be five years ago. In fact, there is more pressure on them to rise from here not fall, and there are a few reasons why prices cannot go back to where they were. The rate of inflation has slowed. You've seen the price of lumber come down, but wider inflation has been indelibly baked into the pricing cake. Homes now have higher, permanently embedded costs of labor, materials and land that all have more stick-to-itiveness to them than Simone Biles on the balance beam. Prices are not coming down anytime in the near future. You might remember that right here on this show in in our newsletter, back in late December, eight months ago, I forecast that national home prices would rise 4% this year, and I still really like how that looks. I'll get back to the investment side here shortly, but real quick, in light of the new rules about how real estate agents are compensated if you're about to buy a primary residence, you may not have any experience negotiating with a broker. In last week's newsletter, I sent you a template you can use and that can help you simplify the process as a buyer and help you avoid being taken advantage of. I sent you that template last Thursday. Back here on the real estate investor side, after a high tide of inflation, you know, you and I, we have all surely enjoyed the splash of both higher property prices and rents. That looks to continue. But what about your higher property expenses, too? Let's talk about what you've got to do to avoid getting crunched by expenses. A survey of single family landlords was recently conducted by lending one in resi club, and they asked this question, what is your expense that increased the most the past 12 months? The number one answer is fast rising insurance premiums, with half of respondents citing that as their biggest expense increase item. And that's hardly a new development, not surprising. The next biggest expense was property tax, 27% of respondents cited that. That's mostly a reflection of higher property values and their consequent tax assessments. 235 single family landlords completed this survey, by the way. So they were the proportion of landlords that answered about what was their fastest increasing expense. Half of them said insurance, easily the most well, the rate of increase in homeowners insurance costs was roughly 10 to 12% nationally last year. That's according to the Insurance Information Institute, and the top two reasons for this are more severe storms and higher replacement costs. The good news is that further rate increases are cooling off, though, all right, but still, what are you to do as a rental property owner that's stuck with a higher property insurance bill? I've got a great answer for you, and it's so incredibly simple. You pass the expense along to your tenant with a rent increase, and then others can deal with what happens downstream from there. And I'll tell you how to go about doing this shortly, which is also so incredibly simple. But if you're reluctant to pass along the increased insurance expense to your tenant, understand that you and your tenant are just like two ports along a river. As this wave of inflation flows along, it flows from the reinsurer to the insurer, to you, the property owner, to the increased rent, to the hike in the tenant wage, to the employer, and then the employer hikes prices on the consumer. That's how the river flows. No watered down returns for you. Now, of course, this River's headwaters are sourced with the government, because that's where inflation comes from. Inflation means an expansion of the money supply. You and your tenant are really two ports along the river. Don't let the expense water dam up and flood you, and the written reason that you give your tenant for the rent increase is drum roll here, higher insurance costs. Yeah, that's it. It's super simple. There's no need to be inventive here. Honesty is therefore the best river raft. Hey, come on now this remorseless geography degree holder has got to let loose with something like river references from time to time. So that's the greatest expense increase item, what to do about it and how you should go about doing it. Now this same survey of single family landlords, they showed that 76% expect to reach high watermarks and raise the rent over the next 12 months, including 35% of landlords who say the rent increase will be over 4% and planned rent increases of one to 7% are most common. That's the planned rent increase range one to 7%. Look, you didn't get into real estate to subsidize others living expenses. There is nothing unethical about adjusting to market level rent. Rent hikes are like a lock lifting your ship through the Panama Canal. All right, so what do we make of this. I mean, gaging, overall investor sentiment is we head later into the 2020s, decade. What is the landlord temperature? As I see it, expenses are up. Higher. Rents follow. And last quarter, home values increased in almost 90% of us, Metro markets, yes, property values are up in 89% of Metro markets. But how do single family landlords in this same survey feel? Well, 60% of them say they will buy at least one investment property over the next 12 months. So most single family landlords they want to buy more. And when that's broken down by region, the most single family real estate investor optimism is in the Midwest, Northeast and South. And really single family landlords are optimistic in every region except the West. And this makes sense. Cash Flows are less lucrative in the West because prices have long outpaced rents there, the survey really shows that most aren't wildly bullish or excessively bearish on the real estate market. They expect it to stay balanced. Many plan to buy properties raise rents, and the survey shows that they, too, expect a 4% home price appreciation rate. That's what it showed, and they anticipate falling interest rates. Now, personally, I often disagree with what the masses think. I mean, contrarians to the mainstream, they are often the profiteers. But in this case, I guess I'm more agreeable with the survey respondents than a perfectly brewed cup of coffee in the morning. And well, maybe that's because single family landlords, the very people that were surveyed are not mainstream. The housing market is actually pretty normal in most every significant way, except, of course, the ongoing lack of housing inventory and affordability challenges for first time homebuyers. And if you're a newer GRE listener, even normal times can be thrilling for a real estate investor when you achieve a 40% plus total rate of return from how real estate pays you five ways. Yes, if you're new here, I know that sounds like an unachievable return, but 40% plus is actually realistic without high risk when you understand your five simultaneous profit sources with income producing property. In fact, when someone asks why you invest in real estate, you can just hold up five fingers. The broader economy shows a lot of signs of normalcy as well, GDP, growth, consumer spending, unemployment, the inflation rate, but the sad exception here is this widening gap between the wealthy and the poor, so I guess that more people charter yachts and yet others increasingly pour mountain dew on their fruit loops in the morning for breakfast. Now, complete uncertainty never disappears, but after disruptions from covid, high inflation and new wars, a lot of people see calmer times ahead. Elections matter, but some people seem more concerned about who the next President will be than the parent of a Sephora obsessed teen. Presidential elections aren't known to rock the real estate market, and actually, history shows that the more sensitive stock market is only temporarily affected by an election. Sometimes I just ponder and quietly think to myself, hmm, when the liquid death drink brand thrives from Hawking wildly overpriced water in a can, I posit just how bad can the economy really be? The bottom line is that most single family investors are meeting higher insurance expenses with rent increases and they want to buy more income property over the next 12 months.
Hey, if you like this show here, and you get value from it every week, I love it when you just simply tell a friend about the show, it's as easy as having them download our dedicated Get Rich Education mobile app for both iOS and Android. If you think you have any friends that would benefit from the vital episode here, I'd be grateful if you shared the show with them, use the Share button on your podcaster, or even take a screenshot and post it to your social. Straight ahead is any debt worth paying off? I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education.
Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge Lending Group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com.
Keith Weinhold 19:47
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Dani-Lynn Robison 20:49
This is Freedom Family Investments Co-founder, Dani-Lynn Robison, listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and Don't Quit Your Daydream.
Keith Weinhold 20:57
Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, you're listening to Episode 516 is every debt that you have worth paying off? The short answer is no. I have held millions of dollars in debt from a young age, and I just keep holding on to more and more. Look what happens to your net worth when you pay down one of your debts, absolutely nothing happens to your net worth. It stays the same. All right. Say that the total value of all of your assets gives you a sum of one and a half million dollars. That's the combined value of any of your real estate, cars, retirement accounts, gold, Bitcoin, all of it, anything of value one and a half million and totaling up all of your debts equals just a half million. That's your mortgages, automobile debt, credit card debt, everything. All right, so you've got one and a half million in assets and 500k in debt. So you've got a million dollar net worth, okay, well, next, say that you decide to pay down 100k of your debt. All right. Well, what's the result? You've got only $1.4 million in assets and just 400k in debt. Well, the result is that your net worth is still a million bucks. You've now got fewer assets and less debt, so you just broke even. But it could be worse than just a break even, because what if, one month after you made this debt pay down. You now need that 100k back for living expenses, but you can no longer get it returned to you because you lost your job, so no one will qualify you for a loan again, or you still have your job. But lending standards have tightened and changed now your 100k is on the other side of a wall that you can't access. So debt pay down isn't just a question of net worth, it's liquidity. And there are some more layers here that we're going to get into paying down mortgage debt. It also builds home equity. Well, that is usually a bad thing, because, as I'm known for saying, home equity is unsafe, illiquid, and its rate of return is always zero. Do you know the crowd that sometimes forgets this and really gets penalized? It is seniors, retirees. All right, what happens when a person is older and they've had a paid off home for a while. People get a reverse mortgage. They need funds for living expenses. Well, reverse mortgages, they have high fees, and also you can't get nearly all of your equity out. You'll often only get up to 60 to 65% loan to value, meaning that 35 to 40% of that hard earned equity that you worked decades for. First it became trapped with no return, and now it's essentially gone. Poof. For all those years, your home is paid off, even if it began as early as your 30s, like it does for some people all that time your equity wasn't earning any rate of return. And the earlier in life you learned that the ROI from home equity is always zero, the better. You didn't see any bill for this loss. You just never saw the gain that you should have had. And that's part of the reason why this myth that home equity is such a great thing perpetuates and carries on for generations. All right, well, we are just getting warmed up here at a key financial question in your life. That question is, is every debt that you have worth paying off?
24:58
Did you know millions of Americans live with debt they cannot control. That's why I developed this unique new program for managing your debt. It's called Don't buy stuff you cannot afford. Let me see that. If you don't have any money, you should not buy anything. hmm sounds interesting, sounds confusing.
Keith Weinhold 25:24
Well, there's a little something to be said for that. But what about interest rate? If that 100k that you paid down was for credit card debt? All right? Well, that was probably a good thing. 44% of American credit card holders carry debt month to month. Now I'm going to guess for you the GRE listener, it's even less likely than that that you carry debt month per month, where you would be subject to credit card finance charges. The average credit card interest rate in America is about 25% today, and it is unsecured debt, meaning that it's a debt type that's not backed by collateral. Now, yes, you can beat a 25% return if you're leveraged in real estate, but your liquid cash flow drain is drastic on credit cards. The other problem with credit cards is that you have to pay your own debt. Later, I'll talk about when others pay your debt for you. And if you have decided that you have some debts worth paying down because its interest rate is too high for goodness sake, pay the one with the highest interest rate first. I know there's a school of thought that says, pay the debt with the lowest balance. First, that is nonsense. Now, sometimes, if you know specifically what you're doing with credit cards, you can play some little games with them. I mean, personally, after I finished college, I kept transferring credit card balances with 0% APR, Intro offers, introductory offers that were for a limited time at 0% and then I kept track of that so that intro rate didn't expire. But this isn't any sort of long term wealth building strategy. Higher balance transfer fees have made that strategy less lucrative. Now too, banks have tightened that up. When it comes to interest rates, it's about that arbitrage. Ask yourself really two questions when it comes to arbitrage, which is just a fancy sounding way of making a profit or a spread. First, you need to ask yourself, how good of an investor Are you? What percent return can you reliably earn from your investments? Say you think it's 15% then if you're plus 15 but the interest rate on your debt is 8, well, then you've got 7 points of arbitrage or profit. So keep the 8% debt. And then secondly on arbitrage plays. Ask yourself, can I afford the cash flow if I keep this debt around? Because if you're 15% return, just say that it's all tied up in the appreciation of a property. Well, that's not very liquid, so you're going to need to have the free cash to make the payments on your 8% interest rate loan. Let's talk about other times not to pay down the debt. Say you're trying to build up an emergency fund of at least three months, or you want to contribute to your employer match in your company's retirement plan, you may very well want to fund those things before you pay down debt too. Now some say, hey, you know something. Just forget about all these numbers like rates of return and interest rates. You know, debt just makes me feel anxiety and feel stress and sleeplessness. There is emotion here, so let me just get it paid off. Or I'm afraid that if I've got some money and I don't pay off my debt, that I'll just lose all of the money to sports gambling, and to that, I say, come on, be an adult. Set some boundaries. Dog ears, some cash for entertainment, and have a firm line. Learn how to use that to your advantage. Debt is like fire. It can burn you if you don't know how to use it, and it can heat your home if you do know how to use it. And if debt gives you sleeplessness. Here, this will help you sleep your debts, principal balance is being debased for you as you sleep, every single one of your debts is being eroded by inflation. Right now, as you listen to me, your principal balance is quietly, debasing and passively, eroding with your say 500k of total debt. We have 10% inflation over a couple years. Well, that erodes its weight down to 450k all without you having to get involved and make any pay downs at all. As wages go higher, and so do prices and rents and salaries, as they all spiral higher, it gets easier to pay back those principal balances. And debt is the most powerful wealth building force that I know of, because debt is leverage. Compound interest is weak. Leverage is powerful. Debt allows you to own and control five times as many properties as you could if they were all paid off. And if you don't understand this, or if your jaw hit the floor, what I just said a minute ago, that compound interest is weak. I just discussed this for you in clear detail nine weeks ago, on Get Rich Education podcast episode 507. So go and check that out. One attribute of real estate debt is that as you get properties where the rent income meets or exceeds the expenses, congratulations, you have reliably outsourced all of your debt payments to tenants. See, most of my debt, personally, virtually all of it, it isn't really going to be paid back by me. It's my tenants, and that is another reason to keep debt in place and only make the minimum payment. Let's talk about another reason to pay down your debt when a payoff or pay down actually does make sense, even if it's at a low interest rate, it's when an outside force kind of makes you pay down your debt. And here's what I'm talking about. Say you're trying to buy a property, whether that's a primary residence or rental, and that you've got say, Oh, just $11,000 left to pay on your car loan at a 5% interest rate, even though you can't outsource the payments. That's a pretty nice low 5% interest rate, you're confident that you can beat that and earn more elsewhere, so you'd rather enjoy the positive arbitrage instead of paying that off. And I'd feel the same way. But here's the twist, your mortgage loan officer says you've got to pay the $11,000 down to zero because your debt to income ratio is too high. So if you want the mortgage, the big loan amount, you've got to pay off the car loan, the little loan amount. Well, that's a case when it makes sense to pay off that automobile loan debt then, and also, when it comes to your credit score, you might need to improve it to qualify for another loan so you can get a low interest rate and 30% of your FICO score is made up of your amounts owed. I'm answering a vital question for you today, and that is, is every one of your debts worth paying off? I'm sharing information, perspective and experience with you here, and this experience was built, just like all experiences, and I didn't always have the experience, of course. Now my parents and I split my college loan costs, 5050, I still had student loan debts for a few years after graduating, and you know, I can't remember what my student loan interest rates were maybe 6% blended because I had a few different student loans, some of which I did transfer onto those 0% intro, APR credit cards, by the way. But after my student loans were paid off, and I started investing in real estate and understanding terms like leverage and arbitrage, you know, I started to wonder if it would be desirable to have those student loans back rather than paying them off so fast I could have owned another property or two sooner, and I'll never know the opportunity cost of not benefiting from the returns on owning more Property sooner. And of course, student loan debt is one of the few debt types that cannot be written off in bankruptcy that tilts back a little toward paying them off sooner than later. What you just heard me talk about here for the last 15 or so minutes is a message that hundreds of millions of people need to hear it's that not every debt is worth paying off or even paying down. So to help give you a summary answer to our question, is every debt worth paying off? The answer is no, and the key considerations are liquidity, interest rate arbitrage inyour ability to outsource the debt. Debt is good when it helps you buy a cash flowing asset or create arbitrage. Debt is probably even good when it helps you buy a home for your family and have a sense of permanency and a mantle to place baseballs and hang Christmas stockings from and build memories. And now this is all because every single one of us either uses debt or we forego the opportunity to use debt. Well, when we forego using debt, we are now subject to a resultant opportunity cost, and this is why a central and enduring mantra here at GRE is that financially free beats debt free. Financially free means that you have enough residual income streams to meet all of your expenses and live just how you want to live. Debt Free means that you don't owe anyone anything, but if you put debt free before financially free, you are going to grind and live below your means and eat dirt and miss opportunities for decades.
And speaking of leveraging your way to financial freedom with assets, the way that we actionably help you here is by recommending income producing providers and properties for you. And you probably noticed over time that GRE marketplace properties here are less expensive than elsewhere. And you might wonder why exactly is this? Well, there's a few reasons. Investor advantage markets have low prices. Also, there is no agent you get to buy directly. Thirdly, providers provide homes in bulk, keeping your costs down. And then finally, there are no owner occupied emotions involved here with buying and owning rental properties, so you don't have sellers that are making unreasonable requests. So this helps answer why GRE marketplace properties are often good deals. Now it seems like states with the best cash flow in real estate are the same ones where people are more likely to wear bib overalls. That's just how it is. In fact. Hey, case in point, I just learned about some brand new, new build single family rentals in southwest Missouri at GRE marketplace. They're available for you to own regardless of where you live. They make ideal rentals, and they come with free property management for the first year. And because they're freshly built. Expect the likelihood of a quality tenant, light maintenance and low repair costs for years. Let me just quickly mention two of them to give you a feel. The first one is in Carthage, Missouri. The single family rental is three bed, two bath. Rent 1550 the price is 206k it's 1200 square feet, built this year. You get a $1,200 rent credit with it. So it's going to take a 51k down payment, and it produces cash flow. The second one is in Carl Junction, Missouri, four bed two bath in this single family rental. The rents $1,875 the price $250,500 1683 square feet built this year. 62k down and produces cash flow. And like I said, both come with free property management for the first year, and we can help set up an entire real estate investment plan for you, whether it's with these properties or others in multiple states, where we help you make it easy on yourself and contact a GRE investment coach. It is truly free always. There aren't going to be any hidden coaching bills that pop up in the mail. We don't have some paid coaching program. We're trying to upsell you. We don't have anything to sell, and our coaches are like advisors, consultants, super connectors and like silent partners on your deals, and they get zero equity in the deal. And our coaches don't wear Bib Overalls either. So they keep it really relatable for you, make it actionable and make a real difference in your life, start at gremarketplace.com. That's where you can contact a GRE investment coach, and we'll see how we can help you out from gremarketplace.com just click on the free investment coaching button. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and I'll be back to help you build your wealth, Don't Quit Your Daydream.
39:46
Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed or investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 40:06
The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. GetRichEducation.com.
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Independent documentary filmmaker and policy analyst at Reason Foundation, Jen Sidorova, joins us to discuss how rent control impacts tenants, landlords and the housing market. Her latest short film project, “Shabbification: The Story of Rent Control”, reflects how rent control has a direct effect on housing quality.
Almost half of rentals in NYC are rent-stabilized.
We highlight the challenges faced by small property owners and the potential consequences of these regulations on the housing market.
Bathtub in your kitchen, anyone? Yes, you read that correctly. In some cases maintenance has been deferred for so long that units have not been updated to code.Learn about the history of rent control and stabilization laws in New York.
Resources mentioned:
Show Notes:
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You can follow Jen on Instagram @jen_sidorova or check out her writing at reason.org
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Complete episode transcript:
Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai
Keith Weinhold 0:01
Welcome to GRE. I discuss the effect that now lower mortgage rates can have how to get a strong return with private lending. Then, for this week's guest, she is a public policy expert with reason.com maker of a new film called Shabbification that spotlights the perils and even horrors of rent control in New York City, and she's a young Russian immigrant that lives in one unit of a Buffalo fourPlex and rents out the other three today on Get Rich Education.
When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. Oh, at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text, GRE to 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter, and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.
Corey Coates 1:40
you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.
Keith Weinhold 1:56
Welcome to GRE from Ankara,Turkey to Anchorage, Alaska and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich Education. Today's guest was one of four panelists at a conference that I attended recently. The panel was named innovative solutions to the housing crisis, and her story struck me as interesting, so I invited her to be on the show today, we'll learn that with rent control in New York City, when landlords cannot go inside their own properties and aren't allowed to sell their own properties, seven states have price ceilings on rents, and I'll tell you here At GRE we avoid investing in these places. Listen closely, California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Maine, Oregon, Minnesota and then DC too. Now sometimes rent control isn't too restrictive. For example, you can raise the rent no more than the rate of inflation plus 3% per year, or the rate of inflation plus 5% per year. And also, it's not all parts of those states where it applies. In fact, you typically do not find the policies statewide in those states that I mentioned, although you do in Oregon, it's statewide in Oregon, and there you can still raise the rent 7% plus the rate of inflation each year. And the good news is that 37 states actually have laws against rent control, specifically saying that you cannot enact it. So not only do 37 states not have it, they just wouldn't even allow a law for it. And there is a strong consensus, like I mentioned here on the show before, among economists that rent control, it reduces the quantity and quality of housing. Today, we'll focus on just how dilapidated rental units become under rent stabilization, which is a lot like rent control in New York City. And we'll discuss New York State and Buffalo. And by the way, I find something amazing. I mean, just say you would ask a question of any citizen of the world, no matter where they live, from Indonesia to Japan, to Bangladesh, to Nigeria to the United States. If you would just ask any citizen of the world, what is the capital of the world? I think that the best answer that you could come up with is New York City. I'm in the United States, and there are people right here in this country that have such little understanding of New York City, and what goes on there, and where it even is, it just amazes me. Maybe it's my own bias, because I'm a geography guy, but now, for example, to get from New York City out to Buffalo, that's an almost seven hour drive to the northwest two different parts of New York State. These are two very different places. We'll get into that shortly. But first in the wider real estate world, I did a little research since first mentioning this to you last week here, where mortgage rates have fallen fully one and a half points from the recent high. All right. Well, with every half point drop in mortgage rates, like I learned from First American, that's my source. With every half point drop in mortgage rates, about 1.1 million additional American households can qualify to buy an entry level home that's defined as the bottom 25% priced here. That's the number, and I checked their math. So with a full point drop in mortgage rates, then 2.2 million more American households can qualify to buy an entry level home. So we could very well have more buyers here soon, but yeah, when all these homeowners are still locked into three and 4% mortgage rates, I don't know that you're gonna have that many more sellers. So with demand exceeding supply, look for more upward pressure on home prices, especially higher values for those entry level homes that make the best rentals. Now, I'm talking about borrowing right there. And what happens when rates go down for mortgages, when they go down for borrowing? Well, rates on savings accounts, they typically fall as well. And this is a scenario that a lot of people expect. Now, most of my real estate activity is a borrower. I'm always here touting the virtues of how leverage builds wealth, and I know that I don't want to be a saver. So for my more liquid funds, I am a lender, and I'm reliably paid a stable 8% interest rate. And I think I've told you before that for years now, I make loans to real estate companies, and they use my funds to rehab properties and for other operations. Yes, an 8% return that I'm getting, and it's almost like getting an 8% yield on a savings account, and it's not expected to fall when interest rates fall. Well, the primary difference is that I often have to wait a few months if I want my full principal return, but not years. So it's not as rigid as a bank CD, but it's not as liquid as an old fashioned bank savings account. So the private real estate company that I've long made loans to works pretty diligently to maintain asset value and assure optimal returns. They'll tell you that they've never missed making a payment for their private money lending programs. And I did a little research, and I found that their fund utilization is 99.6% that really means that they deploy almost all of the capital if you want, you can potentially get a high yield at the same place I do. Sometimes you can get more than 8% or less than an 8% return, depending on what liquidity terms you want and what other terms you like. The company is Freedom Family Investments. They are real estate centric. If you want, go right ahead and learn more. You can do that by texting FAMILY to 66866. Remember, you're the lender, they're the borrower. And again, for most investment types, I want to be the borrower, but for liquid funds, and the fact that the rate of inflation is now down, an 8% return has a higher real yield now than it did two years ago and one year ago. And again, I'm happy to share it with you. It's Freedom Family Investments. If you want to learn more, do it now while it's on your mind and text FAMILY to 66866.
This week, our guest is a public policy expert that's also involved with a film called Shabbification, the story of rent control. Hey, welcome to GRE Jen Sidorova.
Jen Sidorova 9:16
Good to be here. Thank you for having me.
Keith Weinhold 9:18
Yeah and congrats. Shabbification screening in a lot of places, like the Anthem Film Festival at Freedom Fest last month and this month in New York City, tell us about the film.
Jen Sidorova 9:31
Yeah, so in Shabbification, I follow small property owners like myself who are subject to regulation, and most of them are owners of rent stabilized properties in the city of New York. Right, I follow three specific landlords. I They take me to their homes, they take me to their properties, and they show me around, and you can visually see what regulation has done to their property. Yeah, one of these properties was occupied by a tenant. From 1969 up until 2021 wow. And the landlord was never allowed to be in the property, so obviously no repairs were made. And you could see visually that the apartment was like from the 60s. It's like a museum, but not in a good way, because it's really falling apart, right? So it's like, almost like a Tenement Museum, or, you know, another museum New York City, where we they actually preserve those dates. But in this case, a private landlord actually owns that space, and they're having a difficult time. And so what my specific Shabbification With my film is about is a very specific regulation in New York City that happened in 2019 that applied to rent stabilized properties. What it did that is that it won't allow landlords to put them properties on the market even if they rent stabilized tenant vacates them. They're no longer allowed to put their properties on the market at all. And more than that, they are also not allowed to raise rent, even if they do repairs. So sometimes the cost of repairs in New York City for one bedroom unit can be 200,000 and they're only allowed to raise the rent by like roughly $90 a month, and only for 15 years. So it will take them, like, 200 years to recoup their investment. And obviously that doesn't make any sense, so stories like that is what my short film is about. I myself am a small property owner, so it was very special for me to go and kind of tell the story of people like me.
Keith Weinhold 11:36
That's amazing. So rent stabilization something that New York City has a history of. I sort of think of that as a genteel term or rent control. And a lot of times when your rent can't be raised above a certain amount, you get these long term tenants, in some cases, for decades, and in this case, over 50 years, with this particular tenant in New York City and landlords don't have much of any incentive to improve property when rent control is in place, because they know they cannot get a commensurate bump in rent.
Speaker 1 12:11
rent control and rent stabilization are a form of government enforced limit on the rents. And in New York we have two laws that govern that we have more but the most prominent ones are the rent control law of 1969 and the Rent Stabilization Act of 1974 so back in the day, there were issues with availability of affordable housing, and the government was trying to fix it, and that fix was supposed to be temporary. It was supposed to eventually run out once the tenants who were currently in place at the time in late 60s and 70s, once they move out, landlords were able to put those properties back on the market. And eventually, that's kind of what was going on up until 2019 when housing stability and Tenant Protection Act made it so that the landlords could no longer put their rent stabilized properties on the market anymore. So essentially, all rent stabilization became permanent in the state of New York, and actually, in the just a couple of weeks after my film, in April of 2024 we had another law. It's called Good Cause Eviction, and that one regulates every landlord or enterprise who owns more than 11 units. So once you own 11 units or more, you're subject to regulation. You can no longer evict your tenant without a good cause. And there's a bunch of other rules that apply, including the limit on how much rent you can raise year to year. So yeah, that's certainly what's going on. That's roughly the landscape all regulation in New York.
Keith Weinhold 13:44
Yeah, some of this is really punitive, because if rent control comes into a market, that's one thing sometimes that landlords want to do. They want to sell their property, and in some cases, there's a roadblock against that. You know, Jen, I looked up the definition of Shabbification. I just simply googled the term. Urban Dictionary had one of the first hits, and fortunately, it was a G rated definition there in urban dictionary, it was defined as the opposite of gentrification. So therefore with Shabbification, it's where a neighborhood goes through deterioration and despair. So tell us about some more of those bad cases of deterioration, in despair, in Shabbification. Just how bad does it get?
Speaker 1 14:30
Well, one of the properties that we went to was basically from 1910 it was in Chinatown, and we saw was that the bathtub was in the kitchen in that property, oh my gosh. And I believe that was a way for them to do renovations fast and cheap, like 100 years ago. And because that property falls under rent stabilization, and there's obviously limits on how much rent you can charge. So. Landlords of those properties never really make renovations. Sometimes you could see cases like the director of photography, who was in the film, he lives in a rent sabilized property, and in his case, he has a shower unit in his kitchen as well. Instead of a tub, he has a shower unit. And it kind of is, as he described as one of those telephone booths, like, you know, red telephone booths from London, and then kind of just sits in the kitchen, and you obviously cannot really have company or friends visiting or dinner or anything if you have something like that. But those are the setups that we frequently see. Also a lot of things like uneven floors or just, you know, the property, if it's not being taken care of, there might be, like, a hole in the wall, a hole in the ceiling, or the ceiling is falling out. And those are really graphic images. And we do, we do capture them on camera a lot in Shabbification, and that comes from, kind of, my attraction to urban decay. I do enjoy, you know, touring older buildings, or maybe buildings that are preserved as a ruin, maybe like an old prison and or like an old mental asylum. I do do that a lot. It's just a hobby when I travel. So I was always attracted to that esthetic, and that does show in my film as well. I think I love studying the tragedy because I love studying how the hope died, because it's fascinating to me. It's very specific to usually a town or a city, and then just is so telling, and it's such a teaching moment for us as a society to kind of revisit those stories and figure out why did that hope die. And you can see a lot of that in the film.
Keith Weinhold 16:41
it's a great way to scratch one's itch for I suppose, seeing real life haunted houses, if you will, in Jen's film Shabbification here. Well, Jen, we've been talking about the conditions of the tenants. Why don't we talk more about how the landlord is portrayed in Shabbification.
Speaker 1 17:00
since this is the story, primary of the landlords, not so much on the tenant. You know, normally in this sort of films and these sort of documentaries, the story falls in tenant, because the tenant is the one who is seen as likable and sympathetic person, and that's how, and that's usually a more preferable framing angle. But in my story, my story is a story of a merchant class, or like a more, like a war on the merchant class, the war on landlords. Because in the state of New York, no matter how small or large of a landlord you are, whether you own one unit or 1000 by a lot of people in New York State Legislature as a landlord, you're seen as evil. They think you've done something wrong and you have to be punished. So that's the attitude to a lot of landlords, and although they're not that many small property owners, and sometimes we're not seen as a sympathetic I think this is the story that we need to tell, because some of them are like me. I am an immigrant to this country. Once I got an opportunity, I got my first rental property in Buffalo, New York, and right away, I've been renting out three units and lived in one, and I still do own it. Five years later, I live alongside with my tenants. When I go on vacations, they feed my cat, and when they go travel for work, I do take care of their properties. I water their plants, do things like that. So we do live as a small community, and this is something that a lot of people do in Buffalo, because it's a working class city. It's very hard to be able to afford a single family home. Right away, what you can do is acquire one of these properties, either a two unit, three or four unit, because when you're four units less, then you can do an FHA loan, which I did, and you can put minimum amount down, which I did, and then day one, right away, the income from the tenants was paying off my mortgage, right? That's kind of how I can build generational wealth. But not only that, that's how I can start my journey of home ownership and hopefully building generational wealth in the future, as I've said. And I also have my own passion for buildings, and we did a lot of renovations with my family on that property. So there's a lot of heart and soul in that space. And laws like rent control and Good Cause Eviction, they put a cap on people like me and how much we can grow. Because, as I've mentioned, the Good Cause Eviction in New York, it puts a cap on how far and how big people like me can grow. Because once you have 11 units, that's my cap. Once I have 11 units, I have subject to regulation, and somebody like me cannot afford having a tenant who would just never move out. So yeah, I think these laws, they intended to protect the needy. They intended to protect the families, but they do just the opposite. They. Just limit how much we can grow, and they also just make an environment within our properties very toxic, because tenants now basically have more rights than we do.
Keith Weinhold 20:09
Yeah, well, you're really humanizing the plight of the landlord here, Jen with your four Plex over there. For those that aren't familiar with the geography in western New York in Buffalo, sort of the opposite end of the state where New York City is. And, yeah, I mean, landlords are usually portrayed in media is these people that are sort of greedy and bumbling and they won't fix the broken air conditioner. And, you know, it's, it's unusual to me, Jen, that a lot of people tend to resent landlords, whom are often small business owners, but yet they champion other small business owners. And talk about how, you know, small business ownership is the very heart of America. I'm trying to figure out why that is, you know, maybe some tenants that just don't really understand how things work. Just think, well, why should I have to pay this landlord. All I'm doing is sort of renting air or renting space. But you know, one group of tenants that does not seem to resent landlords, Jen, in my experience, that is people that were previously homeowners and are now tenants. They don't seem to resent landlords, and that's probably because that tenant that has experience being a homeowner. They've seen bills for property tax and property insurance and mortgage principal and mortgage interest and maintenance and repairs. I think that's what makes the difference.
Jen Sidorova 21:33
Yeah, definitely. It's almost like, you know, when I lived with my parents, I didn't pay attention to the bills, like election bills or water bills or anything. But once you start living on your own, you now see how it gets deducted from your account, and then it changes you, adds you towards consumption, changes right? You now turn off the light when you leave and do just small things like that. And that's a similar psychology that works with people who previously owned their own homes. I think what the dynamic that's happening here with tenants is there's always going to be more tenants than landlords, so tenants have a lot more political power, and we see a lot of that in New York. We have a lot of tenant groups, tenant unions, who are very hold a little, a lot of political power. And it's one side of it, another side of it is that a lot of these policies do benefit large landlords, in a sense that once the small property owner is no longer able to keep up the property and they just foreclose on it, a larger landlord can always pick it up. And for large landlords, these costs of litigating with the tenant, or the cost of fixing a unit, or even the cost of having somebody live without paying for a few months, these are just the costs of running business, whereas for somebody like me, it's a significant chunk of my income, right? So at the moment, I think it's like 25% of my income is coming from the rentals, so it's significant. So I guess what I'm trying to say is, on the other side of political power, I just legislators who do not want to see private rentals. You know, small property owners having rentals and Damn, motivations are something else. It's almost like, if there's one conspiracy theory that I believe in, is that one you know, is that there is a war on the merchant class among some legislators, especially in the state of New York, who really just do not want to see small property owners providing housing to the community, and they would rather see it in in the hands of larger developers, and that's just the nature of how political process works, sometimes.
Keith Weinhold 23:45
in the broad business world, large institutional corporations, they're often pro regulation for just the reason you talked about it helps put smaller operators out of business that can't bear the expense of dealing with the regulation. But yeah, your film Shabbification, it helps underscore the fact that rent control, it stifles the free market in the process of price discovery. I mean really that price discoveries, that is the process of supply versus demand, with the referee being the price and finding that right rent amount, and amidst this low housing supply we have, it's just really bad timing for any jurisdiction to enact rent control. Existing landlords stop improving property. Builders stop building new property, and it can make landlords want to sell, like we touched on earlier. But also I'd like to talk about making the other case, the case for rent control. When we come back, we're talking with public policy expert Jan siderova, the maker of a film called shabbatation, where we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at. Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President changley Ridge personally. Start now, while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.
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Caeli Ridge 26:32
This is Ridge Lending Group's president, Caeli Ridge. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and remember, don't quit your Daydream.
Keith Weinhold 26:52
Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with a really interesting guest, Jen Sidorova. She's the maker of a new film called Shabbification. This centers on rent control and dilapidated housing conditions. And Jen, you know, I've talked about here on both this episode and another episode a few weeks ago about the deleterious downstream consequences of rent control. It benefits a small group of people in the short term and ends up with deteriorated neighborhoods in a lot of municipalities, but I like to look at things from the other side. What is the case for rent control?
Jen Sidorova 27:27
So I think the the original story behind the rent control in New York City was that in the 70s, it was just really dire situation, kind of what we're going through right now. Right now in New York we have the housing crisis that's the worst in the last 50 years, so basically right around the 70s again. So the current vacancy rate is like 2% and at the same time, we have between 20 to 60,000 rent stabilized rent control units that are vacant because landlords just do not want to put them in more on the market, because talking just in New York City here, yeah, just New York City. And New York City has roughly 1 million of rent stabilized or rent control properties altogether. But yeah, so what is the case for rent control, right? So in my opinion, what is the most problematic saying about rent control or rent stabilization right now, the way the current laws are in New York City is that the property itself is being stabilized or controlled. It's not the person. It doesn't matter how much money you're making. If you're making half a million dollars, you can still live in an apartment that's like 500 $600 a month, right?
Keith Weinhold 28:38
You can have your second lavish vacation home out in the Hamptons, and it doesn't matter.
Jen Sidorova 28:42
Yeah, you can live in Texas for like, nine months out of a year, and come back to New York City for the summer, and then people do that. That's like, not, I'm not making it up. It's a real thing. People are basically hoarding these rent stabilized rent control units, and they just never let them go. And that definitely pushes out young people out of the city. It pushes immigrants out of the city, because people, yeah, all the newcomers. So that's what's going on. So instead of having a property itself being controlled, what could be done? Maybe like a voucher program, maybe like a housing voucher program, but we can only do this if we let the rent control and rent stabilization laws sunset. So once the current tenants move out, that has to be put back on the market, right? So what we could do is the housing voucher program maybe, so that we will always have people in the society that need a little bit of help, but it shouldn't be in such a way that they it's the landlord who is paying for it, right? So if there's a housing voucher, they can live wherever and however that program works in the sense that whoever picks up the rest of the bill, as long as it's not a landlord directly. Yeah, so that's how I see it. And I think just other things that can be done is better zoning regulation that allow more buildings to be built a lot of New York City. Is like a museum, right? We have a lot of historic buildings, a lot of preservation of all the buildings, but we have to reevaluate that, because we don't necessarily have to have the East Village look like a museum if we don't have enough housing, right? So we have to reassess of how much of those policies we still want to hold on to, and then maybe also building codes. Sometimes it's really hard to expand or have more units within the same building. If I have a four unit property and I want to convert it into five units, I am subject to whole different regulation and a whole different bunch of coding, whereas my square footage remains the same. So I think we have to revisit that, because a lot of these new materials that we work with when building are safe right now. So maybe we could let people do more with their properties, and that way we provide more house.
Keith Weinhold 30:50
Yeah. Well, some of this comes down to, how do you get politicians to say no to rent control, which I believe is part of the motivation of your film?
Jen Sidorova 31:01
Right, So the motivation behind myself was that I bought my property in 2019 I went under contract in 2019 and I fully acquired the rights in March of 2020 and between the August of 2019 and 2020 we had a new law passed that was housing stability and Tenant Protection Act 2019 in New York State, and that kind of put a cap on how much I can raise the rent if the tenant remains the same. And at the time when I found that out, I was like, well, that's kind of quirky, but whatever, what can I do? But then a year from that, like in 2021 we had a new mayoral candidate who was a socialist, openly socialist person, and they were advocating for rent control. And at the time, I had an opportunity to go to do a film workshop, and I was thinking, so what is that I really wanted to write film about? And I was this, definitely rent control, because it's relevant for me. It's the story of my people among small property owners, and that's how I did it. And I really want policy action. The idea behind this film, the goal is policy change, right? But this short film is only the beginning of my project, which is exploration of the topic prevent control in the state of New York and everywhere else in the country, and we keep interviewing more people, more experts, and to convert into a larger film, and then hopefully, like a full feature documentary, in order to educate both policymakers and the public about what rent control can do. And eventually, we do hope for policy change in New York, and hopefully, with this film, no more new rent control can happen, or at least when politicians start those bills, they take a look and talk to me and make some changes.
Keith Weinhold 32:52
Well, you're really doing some good work there. I appreciate that. I mean, rent control is analogous to price controls, and we see what happens when there's price controls per se foods like you've seen in other nations in previous decades, and that's how you end up with bread lines, because producers don't want to produce bread when they would have to take a loss and they can't profit on selling that bread. You see a shortage of housing come up just the same, like you do with bread. Well, tell us some more about Buffalo and its market. You had touched on it previously. I think they have lots of older two to four unit buildings there. It sounds like you found one of the four plexes where you could do the owner occupied thing. FHA, three and a half percent down 12 month owner occupancy period. Minimum credit score only needs to be 580 at last check, which is the same way I began with the four Plex building. But yeah, let's learn more about the buffalo housing market. Just a little bit there with rental properties and then the rising tide against Airbnb, like you touched on last month when we met in person.
Jen Sidorova 33:56
Right, so a lot of those properties, a lot of those older homes, were built around the late 1800s beginning or 1900 and that's how they used to build back in the day. Because what would happen is that a large Victorian home with two primarily stories, with two large floors and then maybe an attic and a basement, but one family would live on one floor and another on the second floor. So they were originally built for two homes, but at that time, both families would own that space, right? So there would be co owned by two families. Mine was also an originally a two family home that was converted into a four unit because the previous owners made an addition a lot of young families, that's how they start when they cannot afford a single family home. That's how they start with home ownership and the money that they make for with the rentals. That's how they pay mortgage partially, or maybe that's how they pay the taxes, depending on where you live in the city, sometimes tax burden can alone be very high. So as I've mentioned, we had some mayoral candidates talking about rent control, but recently we started having Airbnbs being regulated in Buffalo. And so there's a few districts in the city where Airbnb is regulated, and my district does not fall into that, and I actually am on four of my units. One is occupied by me. Two are long term tenants, and one which is the newest and the nicest one. I decided to make Airbnb interesting because I did not want to risk, you know, giving it to a long term tenant, because it's just such a nice unit. It's a lot of investment that went in there, so I didn't want it to be provided by somebody who would never leave, because the, you know, environment is just so toxic. You just don't want to take chances, unless you like, really believe in the time. But I don't know people are out here. So I decided to keep it Airbnb. And so because some of the other parts of the city are regulated, and mine is not. I am the beneficiary of that regulation because I get a lot, all of those clients, right, all those Airbnb client so in that sense, funny enough, I am benefiting from some parts of the city being regulated because my my part is not. So all the clients go to me. I do have an Airbnb right now, but we're definitely at the risk of all of the city being regulated. And I think a lot of people complain, right? People who lived in the city for a long time, allegedly, they started complaining to the city council about not recognizing their neighborhood because of Airbnb. But I think what legislators need to understand is that my generation, millennials and Gen Z. That's how we live our lives. We share our assets, right? It's like a big millennial and Gen Z thing that the Airbnb itself is a millennial thing, that this is just will be recognized, that assets like cars and houses, they can be shared, you don't have to have that many of them, even from the unit in the unit that I live in. When I I went out on a trip to Long Island last week, and I airbnbied my own unit. And so that's just how it is. That's just a little lifestyle. And when I see new people who stay in Airbnb on my street, it doesn't bother me. I kind of enjoy a little bit of a variety. But, you know, sometimes it's almost like a culture clash or a generational shift when it comes to thinking about properties and housing ownership. Yeah, that's just my experience.
Keith Weinhold 37:33
Younger generations embrace the sharing economy, and that is quite the mixed use building that you have there with your four Plex in Buffalo, you've got one unit that's a primary residence, a second unit that's a short term rental, and then two long term rental units. There's some diversification of income and utility, for sure. Well, Jen, tell us more about how our audience can connect with you, and especially how they can watch Shabbification.
Jen Sidorova 38:00
So Shabbification, right now is in the film festival circuit, so it's not available to watch yet. Although, if anyone reaches out directly to me through Instagram, my handle is @Jen_Sidorova, which is my first underscore, my last name, anyone can just reach out directly to me and I will send them a screener, and they can watch the full film. And also on my Instagram page, I do put a lot of like other content about buildings, and a lot of like videos so and some, you know, B roll footage that we haven't used in the film, but you can watch it in my Instagram. So yeah, definitely check it out. I also do write for Reason Foundation, and you can find it on my profile, my policy writing work. You can find it at reason.com and it's just under my name, pretty much Instagram and reason website.
Keith Weinhold 38:51
Jen, thanks so much for your Shabbification project. I really think it's going to help people see an important part of American society in a different light. It's been great having you here on the show.
Jen Sidorova 39:02
Thank you so much.
Keith Weinhold 39:09
I talked to Jen some more outside of our interview. Her buffalo four Plex has a high flying 1.04% rent to price ratio. I crunched it out that is super strong for a four unit building, but it is older, and like she said in the interview, she did make some substantial renovation to it, yeah, rent control is a bad plan. You know, on an episode a few weeks ago, I mentioned to you about last month's White House proposal for a sort of rent control light, that was such a bad plan. I told you that it only applies to property owners of 50 plus units, and rent increases were capped at 5% a year. Well, I dug into that release from the White House briefing room, and it's almost like they know it won't work, because. Oh my gosh, this is almost humorous. Economists and any long term thinkers will tell you that rent control doesn't work because you won't get any new builds. Well, the White House release Wood said it won't apply to new builds. It's almost like someone told them, like, hey, this won't work for that reason. So then they wrote that sentence in there, which just undermines so much of it. And economists will also tell you that what doesn't work because owners don't want to improve property well, yet, the White House release actually said it would not apply to substantially renovated property. I mean, my gosh, with these carve outs and all the other caveats that are in it that I described a few weeks ago, this White House rent control planet has no shot of going anywhere. It is lip service virtue signaling, and also would not get past a divided Congress. Really bad plan. In fact, how doomed to failure is wide scale rent control. Well, don't worry, the federal government hasn't regulated rent on private buildings since World War Two. Yeah, it's been 80 years, and it took World War Two scale conditions to bring it. Thanks again to today's guest, Jen Sidorova, with reason.com. Again, like I mentioned earlier, if you want to deploy some of your more liquid funds for a potential 8% return at the same place where I've been getting an 8% return for years, you can make a loan to a long standing real estate company for their property rehabs and other operations. This might really help you out. You can learn more by texting FAMILY to 66866, lots of great shows coming up here at GRE to actionably build your Real Estate Wealth until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your daydream.
Unknown Speaker 41:53
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Keith Weinhold 42:21
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Research Director for California YIMBY, professional city planner and author of Arbitrary Lines, Nolan Gray, joins us to discuss how zoning impacts our communities, affordability of retail and commercial real estate.
Zoning laws contributing to the affordable housing crisis and what we can do about it.
Shifting from NIMBY to YIMBY mindset requires understanding benefits of growth.
How zoning laws prevent new development, causing housing shortages and limiting entrepreneurship.
California's statewide legalization of accessory dwelling units can be seen as a successful zoning reform example.
We discuss how cities like Austin and Minneapolis have seen price stabilization by allowing for more mid-rise multi-family housing near transit and job-rich areas.
Learn how to connect with local policymakers and planners to advocate for policy changes that encourage more housing supply.
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Complete episode transcript:
Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai
Keith Weinhold 00:00
Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, if you don't take the right action, inflation will make you poorer. Then the affordable housing crisis keeps your tenant as your tenant is zoning. What's ruining American cities in keeping starter homes unaffordable or just plain extinct in some areas, how do we get more apartments and more density built today on Get Rich Education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. Ugh. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text, GRE to 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream Letter, and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.
Corey Coates 01:38
You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.
Keith Weinhold 01:54
Welcome to GRE from Calgary, Alberta to Tirana Albania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. When most investors think about inflation, they get it mostly wrong. Their strategy is inflation hedging. And you know, even if you successfully hedge inflation, you are really missing out. You've really got to get fired up about beating inflation. When did you get your first job? Like your first real job in your life? Let's say you did that when you were age 18. Well, that work that you did when you were 18, that created value for somebody else. And you could have done anything with your valuable youth, but instead, you chose to provide value by focusing your time and your energy to sweep floors or enter data into a spreadsheet for somebody else. You were paid for that work that you did. You were paid in dollars, well, if you just tried to store your finite energy that you expended for that employer into dollars, you will lose. Your value will be coerced away from you by your government that just incessantly and relentlessly debases the dollar that you earned at age 18, because they just keep printing more of them. Well, that money printer, which creates the inflation is then an extraction of your resources. Yeah, they extracted your resources, of your time, energy and ingenuity away from you when you were 18, and even the work that you do today, its value will get extracted away from you too. If you say, store dollars under your mattress, if you instead invest it so that its growth rate keeps up with inflation, well, then all you've done is hedge inflation. My point is, get upset about how the system extracts resources from you. And my other point is, don't hedge. Hedge just means that you're treading water. Position yourself to win instead, because you can when you buy income producing property with a loan, you don't just hedge against the inflation. You win three ways at the same time. You probably know that's called the inflation Triple Crown, a concept that I coined. You can watch the three part video series on net, free. It's now easier than ever to access, learn how to actually profit from inflation, not just hedge yourself against it. You can watch that, and it's friction free. There's no email address to leave or anything. Simply watch learn and maybe even be amazed at how you can do this. Those three videos are available. At getricheducation.com/inflationtriplecrown, that's sort of long, so you can also get there with getricheducation.com/itc. Again, that's getricheducation.com/itc. Before we talk with our guests about how zoning is making the affordable housing crisis, even worse, housing values and rents are really looking stable in today's environment. CoreLogic tells us that single family rents are up 3.2% annually. That's the highest rate in a year. And when it comes to prices, the NAR tells us that existing single family home prices hit a record high of $426,900 and that is an all time high. And note that that's existing homes, not new. So median existing homes are basically 427k now. And what does that really mean? Well, that is up 4.1% year over year, the real estate market continues to be it's sort of this tale of the equity rich versus the affordability challenged. Are you equity rich or are you affordability challenged? Well, the more property that you own, the more equity rich you are feeling, that you're going to feel, and oftentimes you're renting out property to the affordably challenged. Of course, the big buzz and a potential really turning point in the economy here or not, it really began about 10 days ago. That's when America reported weak jobs numbers, and that set the unemployment rate from 4.1% up to 4.3%. Citigroup and JP Morgan are now predicting half point Fed rate cuts in both September and November, not just quarter point cuts anymore. I mean, gosh, if there's one thing that we really know, it's that nobody really knows anything. Starting about two years ago, everyone thought a recession was eminent. Bloomberg even said there was a 100% chance that we'd have one by last year. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Everyone thought there would be six or seven Fed rate cuts this year. Wrong, wrong, wrong. You can't even completely count out of rate cut at the next meeting. I mean, sheesh, before that time, we still have two new CPI reports to come out and another jobs report. So, you know, over the long term, this is just how people act. They tend to get ahead of themselves and overreact, and that's really more of a stock market investor sort of thing. And yeah, despite the volatility, you know, us real estate investors are here more chill than Snoop Dogg was at the Olympics. All this fear, what it does is it pushes money into bonds. And when money goes into bonds, it makes mortgage rates go down, and they recently hit 16 month lows near 6.4% and if rates stay low, millions of additional Americans will be able to qualify to buy property that couldn't before, and that could really put more upward pressure on property prices, more than this 4.1% year over year appreciation that we're currently seeing. We know that lots of investors are buying properties like you, getting equity rich and serving the affordability challenge. In fact, 60% of Home Builders indicated that they sold homes to investors from February through April, while 40% reported that they didn't sell to investors. And investors now represent wholly 25% of both new and resale residential transactions and among builders that sold to investors in the past 90 days, 69% of them sold to mom and pop investors. Mom and pop investors, they're loosely defined as those that own one to 10 rental units. They may very well be you. Institutional investors, those that own 10 plus investment properties in this home builders definition here. Well, those institutional investors, they accounted for just 4% of investor sales nationally. So again, more home builders are selling to small real estate investors, those that own one to 10 units. Well, now in almost 10 years of doing the show here, we've never had a full discussion about zoning, and really this is the time. Okay, this ends today because we describe how it's contributing to the affordable housing crisis and what we can do about it. I mean, anymore you really can't find a brand new build 250k starter home anymore, unless maybe it's a tiny home, which then really isn't a full home, and you sacrifice your lifestyle. Well, zoning is a big reason why the Supreme Court decision that deemed zoning constitutional that occurred in 1926. Yes, that's going to turn 100 in the year 2026 that Supreme Court decision that infamously referred to apartments as parasites. Wow. But yet is some zoning good? I mean, say that you and your family have your nice, quiet, single family home on an idyllic half acre lot. Well, if that's the case, should it be allowed that Bitcoin mining facility with its loud cooling fans is built right next to you I'll ask our guest expert about that, and what about say less offensive transgressions, like a condo board that says that you can't rent your unit out. How much zoning is too much or too little? I mean, is someone just being overly sensitive if a duplex is built next to their single family home and they complain about that? So we'll get into all of that. And it really comes down to limiting this McMansionization risk type of nimbyism, not in my backyardism. That's what it is. Again, you can watch the three free videos on how you can substantially and actionably profit from inflation, not hedge, but profit from inflation. It's the inflation triple crown. Be sure to check out those three videos at getricheducation.com/itc. I learned about this week's guest through reason.com we met in person at last month's Freedom Fest in Las Vegas. He is the research director for California Yimby, yes. Yimby, not NIMBY, that is yes in my backyard. And he's a professional city planner. He's the author of the book Arbitrary Lines, how zoning broke the American city and how to fix it. Welcome to GRE. Nolan Gray,
Nolan Gray 12:24
thanks so much, Keith. It's a pleasure to be with you, Nolan,
Keith Weinhold 12:26
you wrote one article for reason.com with such an interesting title, five words, Abolish Zoning-All of it, you're pretty emphatic there at what you'd like to have happen before we discuss that, why don't you tell us in your words what zoning is?
Nolan Gray 12:44
So for the past 100 years, America's cities have been running a grand experiment and how they're governed. Essentially, what we've done, beginning in the 1920s is we said for every single parcel in the city, we're going to assign an allowed use. So most people, if you've played Sim City, you know this might be residential, commercial, industrial, but it goes into so much more detail than that. Different types of residential might be allowed in different parts of the city, commercial, etc, and the vast majority of most American cities, the only form of residential that's allowed is a detached, single family home, right? So that's one half of it, the second half of what zoning is doing, it's placing arbitrary density limits. So the amount of actual housing or amount of floor area that you can build on any particular lot. And it's important to distinguish this from other forms of land use regulation, because in many cases, these rules aren't actually based on any health or safety concerns, but instead a sort of social project of engineering what a correct city should look like. And as I argue in the book and we can discuss over the course of this conversation, is I argue that these rules have actually had incredible harms for our cities and are at the root of our current housing affordability crisis.
Keith Weinhold 13:45
I think zoning initially, it began in New York City about 100 years ago.
Nolan Gray 13:50
Yeah, so New York City adopted one of the first modern zoning ordinances in 1916 a handful of other cities did so as well. So I'm coming to you from California, Berkeley, California also adopted zoning in this year. And essentially, what happened after New York City adopted it was the federal government put together what's called the standard zoning Enabling Act. They mailed that out to every single state in the country and started putting a lot of pressure on states to adopt zoning and allow local governments to adopt zoning. And then, with the rise of the Federal financial system, as part of the New Deal, housing programs. In many cases, local governments were required or strongly, strongly incentivized to adopt the zoning codes to be eligible for certain federal benefits.
Keith Weinhold 14:29
You know, maybe philosophically, one might think, Nolan, well, America stands for freedom, and I should get to do what I want with my plot of land. But if everyone can do whatever they want with their plot of land. I mean, does that mean that my neighbor then could start a sloppy hog farm, or the neighbor on the other side of me could start a battery factory with smoke stacks? So do those sort of things help make the case for zoning?
Nolan Gray 14:57
Yeah, that's a great question, you know. So before the rise of zoning. And we actually had a lot of rules for these classic nuisances, these classic externalities, things like smoke, smells, noise, or even just lots and lots of traffic generation. We had rules to say, Hey, if you want to operate certain types of uses, you need to be in a certain designated area where we're going to tolerate a much higher level of externalities. Zoning does that, but it also does so much more. And it's those other aspects that I think are ill conceived. So for example, of course, we don't want a slaughterhouse next to a single family home, but zoning might also say, Oh, by the way, you're not allowed to have a duplex next to a single family home. You're not allowed to start a home based business. You're not allowed to operate certain commercial uses out of certain strip malls in certain parts of the city. You're not allowed to build anything unless you have a certain amount of number of off street number of off street parking spaces, which can make adaptive reuse of historic properties very difficult. So I think absolutely there's a core of land use regulation that makes sense, that's focused on neighbors, not imposing costs on each other, but our current system goes so much further than that, in many ways, imposes new and unconceived costs, including increasing housing prices, limiting housing options in many of our neighborhoods, making it harder to start a business or to have neighborhoods serving retail in many of our neighborhoods.
Keith Weinhold 16:09
So perhaps zoning has just simply gone too far, and you touched on it earlier. It seems to me that about three quarters of the area of most cities have zoning restricted only to single family home building, for example, and they ban apartments completely. So maybe, as we try to find the right balance of how much zoning is right, tell us more about really the thesis of your book and why we should ban zoning completely.
Nolan Gray 16:38
Of course, we need certain regulations for externalities and nuisances, and to certain extent that can be resolved through litigation, but ideally you look for it and you say, okay, look, there are certain areas where we're going to tolerate certain nuisances and other places where we will not. But beyond that, I think so much of what our land use regulations do is actually causing harm. It's preventing property owners from using their property in ways that are not in any meaningful sense, harmful to their neighbors. It's created this context where now if you want to build just about anything in the typical American city, you have to go through multiple public hearings, you have to do an environmental report in some states, you have to get the permission of local elected officials, you have to undertake all these actions that heavily politicize every new development. And so what we get is so many of our neighborhoods and so many of our cities are locked in amber. And this is partly why, over the last few years, where we've seen a huge amount of demand flow into housing, we've simply had these extreme shortages because markets could not respond with the supply that many of our communities needed. So for example, a starter home in many US cities today might be a townhouse, it might be a two bedroom condo, it might be a single family home on a 2500 square foot lot, but those are precisely the forms of housing that in many cases, our zoning codes make illegal to build. So we're essentially saying if you can't afford at least a certain level of housing, you're not allowed to live in many parts of the community, if in the community altogether, or the same with businesses, if you want to start a small business that might not necessarily have any impact on your neighbors, you might require a special permit. You might require a hearing. You might require to attend a hearing where your competitors are going to show up and oppose your project, purely on a cynical basis. So what it's done is it's created this incredibly disruptive system that's prevented our cities from being entrepreneurial and adaptive, and I think this is the root of a lot of the problems that we're facing today.
Keith Weinhold 18:17
Oh, you really surface some good points there Nolan, when I think of over zoning, and we talk about how a lot of times you can't build anything more than a single family home, that certainly creates a lot of problems. Gentrification is sort of a bad word, kind of sprucing up community so much, raising the value so much, that one problem is that familial bonds decay when children that grew up in, say, Southern California, can no longer afford to live there, so they have to move to lower cost Las Vegas, a four to five hour drive away. Excessive gentrification. You touch that, it also harms mobility. If you want to move from Atlanta to Boston for a tech job but you can't find housing, you're not going to move there, so therefore, talent doesn't get matched up with opportunity.
Nolan Gray 19:07
That's exactly right. I mean, this is a at the national scale. This is an important piece of the puzzle, which is we've made it hardest to actually move to some of our most productive places. So as you mentioned, places like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, New York City, for all their problems, these are incredibly productive places where folks can move to and get high paying jobs and other good educational opportunities, but in many cases, these are the most expensive cities in our country, and it's in no small part because of the many rules and regulations that make it so hard to build housing in those contexts. So you're exactly right. Folks actually turn down higher paying jobs or better opportunities and move to places simply because the housing is more affordable, and you pick up on a really important piece of this, which is in many cases, this is breaking apart families. So a lot of folks who are born and raised in a place like California, their parents might have been able to buy their home in the 70s or 80s or 90s, but they can't afford a home. They have no long term path to actually staying in the community. And so what you're actually seeing is neighborhoods and communities being ripped apart. If the situation in places like California has actually got to be so bad that many of the people who are in a certain sense, beneficiaries of the status quo, maybe they own their home and they're seeing the value go up and up and up. They're also saying, Oh, my children can't afford to live near me. I don't ever get to see my grandkids. The person who serves me at the hospital or at the supermarket can't afford to live here, and we're having trouble keeping folks on. The crisis got to be so bad in certain places like California that we're starting to see tremors of reform. But one of the things I like to say is, if you want to fall into a California style housing crisis, most parts of the country don't need to do anything the rules you have on the books have you moving in that trajectory, right? But if you want to remain a place where we can build more housing, where folks can buy their own home or buy small apartment buildings and start to build wealth, you have to allow for more supply to come online.
Keith Weinhold 20:42
Sure, zoning so that you can't build anything other than single family homes compounds the affordability crisis. There really just isn't any such thing as a 250k starter home anymore, anywhere. You represent California, yimby and you live there in the state where people think of ground zero for excessive regulation and taxation and zoning too. I do read more about some zoning being relaxed in California, allowing for the building of an adu on a property, for example, to help build the density. But before you talk about some of the cracks that are actually starting to help break this down. Can you give any bad examples that are especially problematic there in your home state, Nolan?
Nolan Gray 21:27
For the past 50 or 60 years, California, has been stuck under a NIMBY paradigm, not in my backyard, right? Every single new project is politically contentious, has to undertake an environmental report, has to undergo multiple public reviews, it takes years and years to get a permit, and that's if the housing is legal to build at all. As you know, in so many parts of California, there's very little to no new construction happening, and that's because of the rules on the books that make it so hard to build. To the extent that we allow new housing to be built, we have a whole bunch of mandates that force the housing to be a lot more expensive, and even if all that pencils again, it can take two years to get fully entitled in a permit. And so of course, the only housing that actually ends up getting built is quite expensive. And some folks say, Well, if we allow new housing to be built in California, it's all expensive. Well, yes, if you only allow a trickle of new housing in a very expensive context, of course the new housing is going to be expensive. But if you look to places like Texas and Florida, for example, that build lots and lots of new housing and don't have all of these costly mandates, they actually can build a lot of new housing, and actually can keep prices relatively under control and create that new supply of what we call missing middle, low rise housing. So as you mentioned, the tide, I think, is turning in California. The silver lining of things getting so bad is that the culture is shifting. And what we've seen is the emergence of this new yimby movement, or yes, in my backyard. And these are folks are saying, hey, not only is not building more, not this horrible threat to my community, but it's actually this enriching opportunity. It's good to have a growing, healthy, affordable community where folks are building, folks are able to move to high opportunity jobs, and folks are able to have choice in the neighborhood they live in.
Keith Weinhold 22:55
We're talking about zoning and how that's made the affordable housing crisis worse in the United States with California, yimbys, Nolan, gray Nolan. Tell us more about just the exact sorts of codes that are problematic. We touched on apartment building bans, but I think we're also looking at things like off street parking requirements. You need to have so many off street parking spaces before you can build. Otherwise you can't build. You need to have a minimum lot size of a half acre or a quarter acre in order to build here. So can you talk more specifically about just some of those exact problems on the tactical level that are compounding here?
Nolan Gray 23:34
Yeah, that's exactly right. So where are the housings illegal to build altogether. In many cases, there are a whole bunch of rules that increase the price of that housing. So in urban context, for example, where you might want to be building apartments, many cases, you might have parking requirements that say, Well, you have to have two parking spaces per unit or one parking space per bedroom. In many cases, that's what consumers might demand, and you would have to build that to lease out those units or to sell those condos. But if you're building in a context where you might be near a transit line, or you might be near a university campus, or you might be near a major job center, many of your renters might say, hey, actually, I would prefer to have a more affordable rental or a more affordable condo, because we know that there's no such thing as free parking. You know, if it requires a structure or excavation work, parking can easily add $50,000 to the price of a new unit, and so some consumers might want to pay for that, eat that cost, have a parking space. But many consumers, when we relax these rules and say, Hey, developers, you have the incentives and the local knowledge needed to decide how much parking to build. In many cases, we find that they share parking with other uses, so commercial during the day and residential at night, or they allow renters to opt into parking and to pay for parking, but what you get for many households is a cheaper unit. Now another rule that you mentioned, which is very important, is minimum loss size rules. This is certainly a lot more relevant. More relevant and suburban and rural context. But what we say is, if you want to be able to have a single family home, you have to be able to afford at least a certain amount of land. Now, when if you have a context where you don't have water and sewer installed, and you're operating on septic and well water, you do need larger lots as a matter of public health, but in most suburban context, these rules essentially serve no function except to increase the price of housing and the ability to determine what type of housing can be built where is the ability to determine who gets to live where. So if we say, well, you're not allowed to live in this neighborhood unless you can afford a 10,000 square foot lot or a 20,000 square foot lot, what we're essentially doing in 2024 where land is a major factor in affordability, is we're saying that a whole bunch of middle working class households are not allowed to live in these neighborhoods, or they're not allowed to ever become homeowners and start building wealth in the same way that past generations did. And you look at places like Houston, for example, where they don't have zoning, but they have a lot of zoning-like rules. In 1998 they reduced their minimum lot sizes from 5000 square feet citywide to 1400 square feet citywide. And what this did was this kicked off a townhouse and small lot single family home building boom that has helped to keep cities like Houston affordable a whole new supply of starter homes that again, offered that first step on the ladder of home ownership and wealth building.
Keith Weinhold 25:52
Over the decades, home prices have outpaced incomes. There are a few reasons for that. One of them is inflation, with wages not keeping up with the real rate of inflation, but the other are barriers to development. We're talking more about that with Nolan gray. When we come back, you're listening to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com. That's RidgeLendingGroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation, let the Liquidity Fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account. The minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about Freedom Family Investments, Liquidity Fund, on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.
Robert Kiyosaki 27:50
This is our Rich Dad, Poor Dad author, Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and the reason I respect Keith, he's a very strong, smart, bright young man.
Keith Weinhold 28:14
Welcome back to Get Rich Education . We're talking with California, yimbys Nolan gray about zoning and how these barriers to development are compounding the affordable housing crisis, and there sure are a number of barriers to multi family production. I really think that's what wild it comes down to. You touched on it earlier, and it's something that I spoke about with our audience a month or two ago. Nolan, and that is, mmm, multi families, missing middle these two to four unit properties, duplexes to fourplexes, where they're only constructing about 40% as many of those here in recent years than they did 20 to 30 years ago. The way I think of it is when you lift barriers to multifamily production, of course, you incentivize builders. If a developer buys an acre of land for, say, $90,000 and they had planned to build one unit on that All right? Well, there's one set of inputs in income that a developer can look at. But instead, if you allow them to go from building one unit on this plot of land to two units on it, it increases their profit potential, and it incentivizes developers from that side as well.
Nolan Gray 29:23
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, so there's been some great work by some friends over at the American Enterprise Institute. What they've done is they've created a nationwide map of mcmassionization risk. So when we have these conversations, we say, hey, let's allow for a range of housing typologies in more neighborhoods, duplexes, triplexes, small, low rise, multi family buildings, townhouses, the types of things that were commonly built in a range of neighborhoods before the rise of zoning. Every city in America has a neighborhood like this. That's a mixture of housing typologies. It would be illegal to build that today, but in many cases, we subject it to preservation requirements because we value it so much that we want to keep it. In any case, what happens when you don't allow that type of gradual incremental infill that keeps our communities affordable. What you get instead is the existing single family homes are converted into much larger, much more expensive single family homes. Now, again, there's nothing wrong with that. Many people might want to buy a smaller 19 fizzies bungalow and turn it into a much larger, 2500 square foot single family home, and God bless them if they want to do it. But what we have is rules on the books that say housing can only get more expensive, it can never get more affordable, or you can never unlock the wealth that's tied up in your land by building an adu or by building a duplex, or by creating more housing options for a range of households. And so that's really, really key. You know, the choice is not between, do we want our communities to change or not? The question is, do we want our communities to remain affordable and maybe change and have some more buildings built and more growth and more development. Or do we want our communities to change in the sense of they become more expensive? Folks retire and they move away, the neighborhood gradually becomes significantly more exclusionary, and young folks who moved grew up in the community can no longer afford to stay. That's the option facing many of our communities. And I think the yimby response to this is more housing construction is good and it's healthy and it's part of a thriving community.
Keith Weinhold 31:02
Yeah, Nolan, when we come at this from the familial perspective, like I brought up earlier, it seems like the more zoning there is, the more it benefits seniors and incumbents, the more it benefits the silent generation, the baby boomer generation, and maybe Gen Xers, and it disadvantages millennials and Gen Zers that really don't have their place yet.
Nolan Gray 31:24
Yeah, you know, it's tough. I would say it even hurts seniors, right? I mean, if they want their young adult children to be able to live near them, or, many cases, seniors like the option to be able to build an accessory dwelling unit in their backyard and maybe rent that out to friends or family, or maybe even you move into the adu and allow young adult children to move into the primary residence, or even just rent it out and have an additional source of income to supplement fixed incomes. There's reasons why folks, I think, at all different stages of their life, benefit for more flexibility in the rules that govern what can be built.
Keith Weinhold 31:52
Psychologically, how do we turn one's mindset from a NIMBY mindset to a yimby mindset? I mean, if someone's got their single family ranch home that they want to live in in their senior years, and they want to see its value appreciate, so they don't want duplexes and fourplexes built next to them, rather than them saying no to turn them into saying yes. I mean, how do you get those people to understand that? Well, like this is the way for the next generation, for you to be able to live near your children and grandchildren?
Nolan Gray 32:21
Yeah, that's a great point. You know, I think when you go to these public hearings around projects, you hear relentlessly about the cost of new development, right? Folks speculating about traffic and runoff and other factors parking. We get that perspective. We get bombarded with that perspective. But what we don't get is the alternative perspective of the benefits of a community, remaining relatively affordable, remaining a place where teachers and nurses and firefighters can still afford to be able to own a home and live places, allowing for the kids who grew up in a neighborhood or a city to remain there. And in fact, even just the selfish appeal to the homeowner, there's not actually any evidence that new development happening around you necessarily reduces the price of your single family home, and in some cases, it could actually signal to the market, hey, there's actually development potential on this so when you do decide to maybe sell and move on, your land is potentially going to be more valuable because it has more development potential than it might under a strict exclusionary zoning scenario. So you know, of course, you try to make the altruistic case to people. Hey, think about future generations. Think about folks who maybe want to move to this community or stay in this community, but aren't going to be able to if we don't build housing. But even so, I think there's selfish reasons. If you want to have somebody who's going to check you out at the supermarket or serve you at a restaurant or be a home care nurse, eventually you got to have housing for folks like that. In many cases, new development happening around you is going to increase your land value. Now I would just try the rage of appeals and work people through it. And in many cases, you know, I think people will understand, yeah, okay, I understand we got to have some growth. They might have a perspective on what it should look like, and that's okay. But as long as we can get some consensus that we got to have some growth to accommodate demand the form it takes, we can have a healthy discussion over.
Keith Weinhold 33:57
Yeah, real community is the integration of all different types of people, and not school teachers living an hour away where they need to make a two hour round trip drive every day. Well, Nolan, as we're winding down here, can you give us any more successful zoning reform examples that maybe other communities can look to you touched on the success stories in Houston a bit. Are there some other ones?
Nolan Gray 34:21
Absolutely. Yeah. So one of the most successful things we've done in California has been statewide legalization of accessory dwelling units. Yeah, that's been key. That started in 2017 and that took a lot of legislation to get us to a place where we are today, but that's resulted in something like 80,00 ADU's permitted, since 2017. That's powerful stuff, right? That's 80,000 households that might have a home, or might be able to rent out a unit to young adult child or an aging parent. Really, really powerful. So I would suggest that folks look into that. That's the lowest of the low hanging fruit. Empower homeowners to add additional units to their properties, and by the way, we also allow you use to be added to multifamily properties, and we're seeing a lot of that happen as well. At other contexts, many cities, dozens of cities across the country. Have removed their minimum parking requirements, acknowledging that, hey, this is a huge cost that we're imposing on projects, developers who are close to consumers, who have, they have the incentives and local knowledge to get this question right. Let them decide. So that's been, I think, a big success. You know, certain cities like Austin and Minneapolis, for example, they've actually sort of kept their markets back under control amid all the chaos of the pandemic real estate market fluctuations by allowing for a lot more mid rise multi family on their commercial corridors and in Job rich areas and in places near transit, that's where we have a huge shortage, is these studios and one bedrooms. So young professionals who, if they can't find that unit, they're going to go bid up the price of a two or three bedroom unit, they're going to roommate up and be living in potentially overcrowded conditions. So Austin, Minneapolis, we, relative to peers, they built a lot of housing and have seen prices stabilize as a result. So there's a lot of different success stories, you know, I would say, if you're at all interested in this, talk to your neighbors about this issue. See what sorts of solutions might make sense for your community. You know, in a suburban or a rural community, ADUs or minimum loss size reform might make sense. And an urban community, removing your parking mandates, allowing for more multifamily, allowing for missing middle, make more sense.
Keith Weinhold 36:06
There sure are some encouraging signs. There was there any last thing that a person should know, especially a real estate investor type audience that's interested in buying a property and renting it out to a tenant for the production of income? Is there anything that our group really ought to know about zoning and the direction that things are moving, what to look for and what to be careful of?
Nolan Gray 36:28
Well, as your audience probably knows, you know that first essential step for your mom and pop local real estate investor is often a duplex, a triplex, a four Plex, historically, that was an absolutely essential source of middle class wealth building. Yeah, right. And you can see these in so many historic neighborhoods. And to the extent that we've made those exact typologies so incredibly hard to build, we've cut off this very valuable source of democratic, decentralized wealth building that we need to actually encourage as real estate investors and professionals, in many cases, you're an authority figure with your local policymakers and your local planners, and you can say to them, Hey, here's my perspective on what's happening in the market. You know, we have a shortage of a certain type of small scale multifamily or making this case. You know, I talked to a lot of elected officials, and when I say starter home, I think they still think of the bungalow on the 5000 square foot lot with the two car garage. But a starter home in 2024 might be a townhouse, two bedroom condo, a small lot, single family home. These are the types of stories that real estate investors and professionals are trusted advocates on, and you can make that case and explain to local policymakers. Hey, here's the change that we need or explaining. Hey, I wanted to add an additional unit to a property that I own, or I wanted to redevelop a property I own to add a lot more housing. And these were the barriers that I faced that's incredibly valuable information for your local policymakers and planners. And I would say, you know, look around many US, cities and states now have very active yimby or, Yes, in my backyard groups. Go connect up with them. You could be a valuable, trusted expert for them, somebody that they can learn more about the situation with real estate markets, and they can be more effective advocates for policy that I think a lot of us would like to see.
Keith Weinhold 37:58
And when it comes to changing NIMBY people to yimby people, and we look at esthetics and adu in the back, that really doesn't change aesthetics on the street front. And I've seen very smart, careful designs of duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes that really look just like single family homes from the Street View level. So there really are some ways around this. You've given us some really good ideas today. Nolan, hey, well, someone wants to learn more about you and your work and zoning. What's the best way for them to do that?
Nolan Gray 38:30
Well, I'm on the platform formerly known as Twitter. I'm @mnolangray, M, N, O, L, E, N, G, R, A, y, so feel free to find me there and reach out. And I have a book Arbitrary Lines, how zoning broke the American city and how to fix it. Check that out. If you're at all interested in this, always reach out. Love to hear from folks. Thanks so much for having me, by the way.
Keith Weinhold 38:50
All right, well, I hope our audience didn't zone out. It's been great. Chat with you. Nolan, thanks so much for coming on to the show. Yeah, a thought provoking discussion with California yimbys Nolan Gray there it's essentially illegal to build affordable housing in a lot of areas with the way that these zoning laws are written, allowing for more dense building that can limit this ugly urban sprawl, and this makes me think about an Instagram account that I follow. It's called how cars ruined our cities, or some names similar to that. It shows, for example, a picture of how a highway interchange in sprawling Houston has an area so large that you could fit an entire Italian town inside of it. And these sprawl problems compound when a lot size must be, say, at least a quarter acre or a half acre. The tide is turning toward allowing more dense building in some places like we touched on, but it's too bad that it took a. Visible housing crisis to make this happen. I mean, visible like more homeless people out on the street. It took that almost for municipalities to start doing something about all of this. Our guest has quite a following on X. Again, you can find his handle there @mnolangray on X and the image on his account cover it shows someone holding up a sign that reads, zoning kills dreams. Hmm, big thanks to the terrific Nolan gray today until next Monday, when I'll be back here to help you actionably build your Real Estate Wealth. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.
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Complete episode transcript:
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Keith Weinhold 00:00:01 Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. There are many commercial real estate sectors. Large apartments, office, hotel, hospitality, retail, warehouse, industrial. Well, what's thriving? What's been beaten up so bad and is never coming back? And what's in a dip that's ripe for opportunity? Also creative deal structuring if you don't have a lot of money. It's the debut of the King of Commercial real estate here today and get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple.
Keith Weinhold 00:01:13 Text gray to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text gray to 66866. Text gray 266866.
Corey Coates 00:01:41 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold 00:01:58 What does your read? From Tuscarora, Pennsylvania, to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Whitehill, and you're listening to get Rich education. Today's guest, the king of commercial real estate, is talented, dynamic, global, articulate, has both a wide range of knowledge and an expansive palette of creative strategies in both commercial and residential, where you can buy with little out of pocket. And he's going to share that with us today. That's coming up here shortly. Now, when we think about residential real estate, of course, that is a really wide world in itself.
Keith Weinhold 00:02:38 From condos to single family homes to tiny studio apartments. You could also divide it into short term and mid-term and long term rentals. And then you could also parse it by all of the geographic markets. Well, of course, the commercial real estate world has a ton of segments too, one of which is office, which I want to talk about because it's probably been the most downtrodden and beleaguered since 2020. But there are still some things that are misunderstood within office and even dividing things up that much. Let's take care not to broad brush stroke office real estate itself some smaller segments of office might be in decent shape today. Other office segments are in real trouble. Like we're talking about tall concrete and glass, office towers and a lot of business parks, too. Yeah, business park, sort of a campus like areas, like maybe what the comedy The Office had. He had Dunder Mifflin was in a business park.
Steve Carell 00:03:43 I'm just helping you invest in your future, my friend.
Oscar Nunez 00:03:46 It sounds like a get rich quick scheme.
Steve Carell 00:03:48 Yes. Thank you. You will get rich quick. We all will.
Keith Weinhold 00:03:52 yeah. I guess that's what Steve Carell's character. What Michael Scott from The Office says about prudent investing. Let's talk about office real estate and how that intersects with the housing market. And really a lot of this comes down to the office vacancy rate. Moody's tells us that 1 in 5 office spaces in this economy are empty. And that is the highest ever. And a lot of people think that it's going to go higher right now. Dayton, Ohio is the highest in the nation at 28%. These are office vacancy rates. Charleston, West Virginia's 27. Tulsa, Oklahoma 26. And Houston, Dallas and Austin are all in the top ten for the worst office vacancy rates. Now, a lot of city officials, they want to turn that into housing, and they want government funding in order to make that transition happen from office to residential. This is most attractive to cities if you can partially convert a building to have housing on upper floors, and then you just maintain some offices on lower floors and see that mix right there, that makes for a vibrant, lively downtown community, because that way you don't have downtowns that go quiet at 5:00.
Keith Weinhold 00:05:10 But a lot of these renovations, they just aren't that feasible. They call them ritzy conversions. That's kind of what this is known as. So office to residential. I mean that means you often got to deal with huge floor plates, overhaul mechanical systems, and you've even got to consider things like the fact that windows don't open in office buildings. And they've often got to for resin conversions. Well, with this prolonged high vacancy in offices. Well, where do these people that would have been in offices spend their time instead? Well, of course at home in their residential real estate. And oftentimes it is a one for one. You have one less person occupying an office for lots of that waking day, and that means one more person occupying their home. Well, that's one reason that people are increasingly willing to spend and pay more for homes because they're spending more time than ever there. And ever since the work from home movement and zoom from home movement, if you will, since that became commonplace for urban workers coming off the pandemic, you soon saw the hashtag auto.
Keith Weinhold 00:06:27 The return to office movement that began is where you've got to come into the office 2 to 3 days a week, and then a lot of companies try to ramp it up to 4 to 5 days per week. Some companies even said, yeah, come on in here. You've got to in order to be eligible for promotions. Well, a lot of people don't want to come into the office. We found that out now, especially younger workers. In fact. Did you ever hear of the term coffee bagging? Yes. Some workers are trying to game the system. Coffee bagging. That is the art of returning to the office to a quick hit. Just have a quick hit. You only badge in, get coffee, chat and peace out of there. Well, more people are doing this or they're staying at home than what you're often led to believe. So despite the RTL movement that you hear about the share of employed persons that work their average day from home, last year it rose to 35%, up from 34%, and that's per the BLS.
Keith Weinhold 00:07:31 Well, that's a little interesting to know, but it all comes down to that office vacancy rate, which is, like I said, a stubbornly high all time record 20% nationally, and it could go higher. If you're going to invest in office real estate today, I mean, you've really got to have some insider knowledge and invest smart.
Donald Trump 00:07:55 Did you use the word smart? so you said you went to Delaware State, but you forgot the name of your college. You didn't go to Delaware State. You graduated either the lowest or almost the lowest in your class. Don't ever use the word smart with me. Don't ever use that word. Oh, give me a break. Because you know what? There's nothing smart about you, Joe.
Keith Weinhold 00:08:16 oh, dear. Oh, one of those two men is our current president, and the other could be our next president. Oh, well, love him or hate him, I guess the Trump. Hey, he is the Art of the deal author. And when you think about the Trump name, you should think about seeing those letters on tall office buildings in hotels coming up on the show here in future weeks.
Keith Weinhold 00:08:39 We are stacked with great guests an NFL All-Pro, the president of the Mississippi Institute, the return of the tax free wealth author Tom Wheelwright, and also the incomparable financial firepower of Garrett Gunderson. That's all coming up here in future shows. Let's talk to the king of commercial real estate. This week's guest is a former high tech engineer turned real estate mogul and New York Times best selling author of the book Real Estate Riches. He is globally renowned for his ginormous real estate ventures and his mentorship. But his approach to real estate isn't just transactional, it's about strategic creativity and leveraging property investment for financial independence. Known as the King of commercial real estate. Hey, welcome here for your great debut. Joining us from Malta today. It stopped the roost.
Dolf de Roos 00:09:38 Thank you very much. It's my absolute pleasure to be here.
Keith Weinhold 00:09:41 Oh it's great to finally speak here on the show. And I know that a good segment of our international audience has been anticipating this episode. And often we think about commercial real estate today. Problems come to mind immediately, like the large apartment space with interest rates blowing things up over there, and then the office sector, which just seems to be dying and never coming back.
Keith Weinhold 00:10:03 So first of all, why don't you give us an overview on how various commercial sectors are doing today?
Dolf de Roos 00:10:09 There's always the things that you see on the surface, what you read in the newspapers and what you lead yourself to believe just on the sheer balance of probability. And then there's the reality of what is truly going on. And I'm always amused at the chasm between them. There's a big difference. And in fact, your ability to do well in real estate is largely dependent on the arbitrage between the markets perception of where things are at and the reality. Now, if we all follow the trends, you know, real estate doesn't go up linearly as mathematicians would say. It goes up in fits and starts with each peak a bit higher than the previous peak and each trough a bit higher than the previous trough. But in addition to that, real estate markets always overshoot so that when things are going well, when the public perception is that things are going well, Interest rates are low. There's good capital growth.
Dolf de Roos 00:10:59 People think it's going to go on forever. It will never end and they pay way too much for properties. We have the greater fool theory where no matter how big a fool you are to pay too much for a property, it doesn't matter, because next year they'll be an even bigger fool to pay even more for it. So everyone jumps into the market, overshoots, and then there's a strong correction. A bit like the 2008 GFC. It was on the cards. It was. The writing was on the wall, as they say, and then it corrects. But instead of correcting back to where it should be, it overshoots on the downside as well. And in Phoenix, where I'm based, at one stage we had 90,000 homes into foreclosure simultaneously, and they were selling them on the courthouse steps at the rate of one every 56 seconds for initially 20,020 5000, and people thought, why are these fools buying these properties? The market's crashed. It will never recover. And yet when you live long enough, which unfortunately I have to say, I've done now like I've been around a while, I've seen a few cycles.
Dolf de Roos 00:11:59 No, I'm serious though, Keith, because when you experience your first downturn, you think it's the end of the world. But when you've been through three and you've seen that despite all the bad press and saying it's doomsday to never recover, it not only recovers, but it actually far exceeds where it was before it crashed last time, then you know that the time to take action is when everyone else is panicking. You have to be countercyclical when everyone else is jumping on the bandwagon and paying too much for properties. That's when you should get on a plane and read some good books on a beach somewhere, preferably in a foreign location. Why a foreign location and being disloyal to the home country? Note just explore something. Expand your mind. And you know, I know I'm waving around a bit from topic to topic, but one of the great things about reading books on foreign beaches is that you get to see different ideas of real estate that you can bring back home. So when you bring back these ideas that can help correct the market, then you almost you don't wish for a crash, but you think when it happens, well, there's got to be some good aspect to this and you can actually find some stunning deals from people who are too scared to think it might recover well.
Keith Weinhold 00:13:05 So those places where you might find stunning deals are in some of those commercial real estate sectors that are suffering today. Tell us a bit more about some of those sectors in their health. We're talking about five plus in the department's office, hotel, hospitality, retail, warehouse, industrial. Let us know what's going on with some of those sectors.
Dolf de Roos 00:13:27 In a state of flux. And it's a very good question. Let's talk about hotels for a moment. When the pandemic set in, we were all told to do this thing called to be socially distant. We've almost blissfully forgotten that expression. But social distancing was the thing. So hotels fell out of favor because you're in a foyer with a concierge and a reception area and hundreds of other hotel guests checking in and checking out. So Airbnbs became very popular and the value of hotels plummeted. Many couldn't meet their mortgage obligations because their revenue from room sales did not cover their own loan commitments, so they were being sold off at ridiculously cheap prices. I know of one hotel in the Atlanta area, admittedly a very old hotel.
Dolf de Roos 00:14:09 It was converted into a storage facility. When you think about it, hotels are all compartmentalized and have good little cubicles for story. Yeah, and Airbnbs took off. And we all know people, and people wrote books about it and had courses on it. I know in Phoenix, one statistic in a 12 month period from July 22nd to July 23rd, the availability of Airbnb's went up by 23% and all would have been good and well if demand had kept on escalating. But as the pandemic sort of wound down and people realized they did need to be socially distant anymore. And what's more, when you went to an Airbnb, what you found is that there was a long laundry list of items you had to do, but the sheets through the washing machine no more than one bed at a time. Well, four beds worth of sheets is going to take you three hours and do this and do that. People thought hotels are much easier, so there was a massive swing by tenants of rooms back to hotels, and the value of hotels went back up.
Dolf de Roos 00:15:04 And in the meantime, the value of houses used as Airbnb's, it sort of peaked a bit and it's going down rapidly. How far it will go down? I'm not so sure. So my point is, with hotels in a very short period of time, like three years, the values plummeted and then they came back up again. Office space is suffering a bit of a longer cycle downturn. It's fair to say, I think, that offices are in a very dire straits. Something like $785 billion of mortgages secured against commercial office space that is coming up for renewal, and there's not enough revenue to cover them. There is a pair of hotels on Union Square in San Francisco, for instance, the park Renaissance and the Renaissance itself. They had $745 million of mortgage funding, and the operators of those hotels handed the keys back to the bank and said, we can't make this cash flow. There's a lot of commercial space that is being sold off a ridiculously cheap prices. So there are two ways of looking at this, Keith.
Dolf de Roos 00:16:02 One is if you happen to own office space right now, unless it's boutique space, I've got quite a bit of office space, but it's a very much a boutique classification, and they'll always be demand for boutique office space from unique operators like interior decorators and people like that. But for the general concrete and glass office towers, demand for that has plummeted. The values have gone down and I know of one building in Chicago. It's sold for 315 million. It's on the market at 60 and dropping, and there's not a buyer in sight. And you might say, well, it's got to be a bargain. But no. Here's the challenge. With commercial real estate. Unlike residential, residential is valued on the basis of comps. We all know that if you have a four bedroom, three bathroom home, certain age, certain size, certain condition in a certain suburb, then and if it's sold for, say, $480,000, then a similar sized and aged house up the road, down the street around the corner is going to sell for about the same amount.
Dolf de Roos 00:17:02 Whether it's tenanted or not, that doesn't even matter. But when it comes to commercial real estate, the value of a commercial property is literally a multiple of its rental income. Technically, is the rental income divided by the cap rate? Which cap rate is short for capitalization rate? It literally means the rate at which you capitalize the rental to arrive at the value. So if we can figure out a way of doubling the rental, then we've doubled the value. And by the same token, of course, if you lose the tenant and you have your rental, then you have the value. And that's why the value of so many of these commercial office buildings has plummeted, because there are no tenants for them.
Keith Weinhold 00:17:40 Yeah, well, there's a lot there. And back to the Airbnb thing. Yeah. About two years ago, there seemed to be this well well-documented Airbnb bust. And my gosh, I personally had awful Airbnb experiences recently, including checking into an Airbnb where it hadn't been turned over, it hadn't been cleaned yet, and that I can never unsee what I saw.
Keith Weinhold 00:18:00 Then I had to stay there. That was really rough. I think what you're getting at here is once you hit a bottom, that's where the opportunity is. So there are going to be some of those opportunities somewhere in the commercial real estate sector, commercial real estate syndicators, many of them imploded from high rates. So when we talk about finding the bottom link with these large apartment buildings, how many more apartment syndicator implosions do we expect from the higher mortgage rates?
Dolf de Roos 00:18:27 Many. I'm indifferent to it. I'm not saying I don't have sympathy for the people who own them, and I'm not gleeful for those who buy a bargain. But here's why I'm indifferent. I think it's fair to say that I've made most of my money in real estate by finding either vacant or semi vacant buildings, and that goes against the grain. Most people think they need to look for a building with a good tenant, because it's the tenant that pays the rent, and that's not incorrect. That's accurate. And then if you've got a building that you buy and say 8% return and your mortgage interest is 7%, hopefully that 1% margin covers your property taxes and your insurance and your maintenance.
Dolf de Roos 00:19:05 And then you just wait for time to do this thing where slowly, over time, the rents creep up and the property value creeps up. I don't have the luxury of waiting that long, and I never had the cash to buy properties like that, so I literally sought out semi vacant or even vacant buildings. Now, I didn't buy them because if I bought a vacant building, I still have to pay property tax and insurance. But what I would do before buying it is see if I can find a tenant, and I can give you a specific example. I came across a vacant building that was a funeral parlor, and most people don't like to think of what goes on in a funeral parlor. But they have these stainless steel trays where they put the product of their business on, and they insert these hollow stainless steel tubes and suck up the blood and replace it with formaldehyde and all kinds of things we don't want to think about.
Keith Weinhold 00:19:52 That's even worse than my Airbnb experience.
Dolf de Roos 00:19:55 No one knew what to do with it.
Dolf de Roos 00:19:57 So I found it. And it was being sold for a song because it was vacant. And what I did is I employed someone at the then going hourly rate of $8 an hour to phone every funeral director, going further and further from this place until she found someone who said, oh my gosh, I've always wanted to operate there. And I was just open and honest. And I said, well, there's a funeral parlour premise for sale. Go and check it out if you want to buy it, buy it. Why would I offer it to him, Keith, when I really wanted to buy it? Because the last thing I want is a tenant to be gracious. The fact that the only reason he's paying me rent is that I'd beat him to it. But I knew that in all probability, he didn't want to buy real estate. That's not his gig. And he said, no, I don't have the money or the inclination he had to look at. He said, listen, I love it.
Dolf de Roos 00:20:40 I want to operate there. What would it take? And I said, well, if you're willing to sign up a heads of agreement, an alloy, we're subject to me buying it. You will become the tenant, then I'll have a crack at buying it. And his response was, were not so fast, I need you. I'll only do it if you give me a long term lease. Well, that's exactly what I want. So I'd found a tenant by adding the tenant to this otherwise vacant building. The value of it doubled. And when I went to the bank to apply for a mortgage, they said, well, we're only going to give you 50%. Well, guess what? 50% of double the value was the purchase price. They lent me all but the last $10,000 to buy that property. So the magic sauce here is finding the tenant. Could anyone else have gone through at the time? This is before the internet, the Yellow pages and phoned every funeral director going for. Of course they could, but no one thought of doing it.
Dolf de Roos 00:21:33 And that comes to part of what you had in your title, that this is all about creative real estate. The thing I love about real estate is it's about the only investment vehicle where you can actually use your creativity. I mean, if you're a really creative person and you buy a portfolio of stock, IBM stock and Microsoft and biotech, what.
Keith Weinhold 00:21:53 Can you do to improve it?
Dolf de Roos 00:21:54 Can you deploy your creativity? How can you deploy what you've seen in your travels to make your stock portfolio worth more? Zero. Absolutely nothing. Not with stocks, not with bonds, not with futures. Options, certificates of deposit, Treasury bills, nothing. But with real estate, the sky's the limit, I love that.
Keith Weinhold 00:22:13 Well, you talked about getting into commercial real estate sectors with little or none of your own money. That's part of the creativity. A lot of our audience is interested in investing in residential property, a single family home. You might still be able to get one for 150 K now, 20 to 25% down payment on that 30 K plus.
Keith Weinhold 00:22:34 I mean, that's still pretty manageable for a lot of people, but many are somewhat intimidated by commercial real estate. I think one of the first things they think about is how do I come up with the money? So we talk about creativity in funding that down payment. Tell us more about some good strategies for doing that, and kind of overcoming that daunting feeling of higher commercial real estate prices.
Dolf de Roos 00:22:52 You're absolutely right. Most people think commercial real estate is more expensive, where you might be able to buy a home in a cheaper market, a cheaper price point at one 20,000, say the commercial property is going to be half a million, or if homes are $1 million and a fancy suburb and the commercial properties at 3 million. That's true, but not all properties are like that. My smallest commercial building was a little corner shop. It was a wet fish supply shop, so they sold fish but not cooked fish. And it was a horrible looking thing. But I paid all of $79,000 for it and it's been rented on a full commercial lease from the day I bought it, so it needn't be liked.
Dolf de Roos 00:23:31 In fact, we tend to only notice the big ones for the For Sale sign. You're in the downtown of some city and you see a big one of the big firms, CB Richard Ellis or Jones Lang LaSalle or something for lease or for sale sign, that's for sure. And you don't tend to notice the small ones. The trick in finding good value real estate. Be it commercial or residential, again, has to do with the fact that it's not an automated market like the stock market. You buy stocks through computers on a share market. Everyone pays the same price. But when it comes to real estate, the seller may choose to go through a real estate agency. It might be a national one, and then it's vetted by many agents. But we have a thing known as fizzbuzz or for sale by owner. And why would a seller choose to circumvent a real estate agent? Well, probably because he's hoping to save on the 6% commission. By the way, that's the highest in the world.
Dolf de Roos 00:24:21 And the rest of the orders? 2 or 1 and a half or 3%, it soon to be lowered in the States. But even so, they want to save on that commission and more sinisterly. Perhaps some of them think, why should I entrust my property, the sale of my property to some snooty, nosed 22 year old kid just out of school who doesn't even live in the suburb. I have lived here for 59 years or whatever, he says. And I know what it's worth. And in pricing it, he's either way too high or way too low. Now, if he's way too high, you and I aren't going to buy it because it's just way too high. We know that. But what if it's 100,000 below market value? It happens every day of the week, and if we stumble across one of those, then we might just make 100,000 that day. Not in terms of cash, not in terms of folding hard cash, but in terms of equity. And we could sell it the next day for a hundred thousand more.
Dolf de Roos 00:25:08 But we don't because we want to invest in it. And these things are real key. These happen. That's why I encourage people don't take the same route home from work every day. If you've finished work, get in your car, take a different route, keep your eyes peeled, look for visible signs of a sale by owner, or look for abandoned properties, ones where the grass is a bit high in this litter blown up against the fence and the windows are a bit grimy, and then do some research to find out who owns it.
Keith Weinhold 00:25:34 Sometimes the greater the crisis, the greater the opportunity. But often we talk about, say, if one has overcome the money in the down payment thing, you know, in effect, when we go ahead and get a loan, whatever sector we're investing in, the bank underwrites either us or the bank underwrites the property. But in a sense, us as the investor is we're sort of underwriting the tenant that's in there. Now, when we buy a residential building, you know, we can look at the tennis credit scores and their work history.
Keith Weinhold 00:26:00 You know, we know that the residential tenant is going to pay us to live there. We have a good sense of faith about that. But when it comes to commercial real estate investing, say, I want to buy a plaza with eight businesses in it. I think a lot of investors feel overwhelmed because they're like, oh my gosh, like, how do I study the validity of these eight businesses? And how do I know that they're going to be solvent and sustainable going forward? And do I need to understand all this, or can you speak to that and help break that down for us a bit? Basically the investor underwriting the tenant.
Dolf de Roos 00:26:31 That's all true. And yet there isn't that much to learn. Because if we take your imaginary shopping plaza with eight tenants. Yeah, I think we'd all agree that if one of those tenants was a Gloria Bean coffee and tea or whatever it's called, or Seattle's Best or Peet's Coffee, not to mention Starbucks, that's a global change, but one of those lesser brands.
Dolf de Roos 00:26:51 I think we would be pretty comfortable that they can pay the rent every month. And similarly, the bank underwriting that loan was like, well, a Peet's Coffee or Gloria, that they're a good tenant And, you know, just to name others at random rosters for less, that's a nationwide chain store. I think if we had them as a tenant, that would all go well. And you might get a couple of independents, but they would have a track record. They've leased those same premises for the previous eight years, and they moved there from other premises, which ended up being too small for them. That means they're expanding where they were for 12 years, things like that. Give a picture to any novice in this game to say, wow, they're probably going to be here for the long haul. And beyond that, what happens when you develop the skills to attract new tenants? You don't worry about that even because you know that when you lose a tenant, it's easy to get one lesson.
Dolf de Roos 00:27:42 I've got 101 ways of getting tenants for buildings, and I'm blown away that people don't deploy even one of them. And I'll give you an example from last week. I was with a client in the UK in Bournemouth, which is way in the south of the country, and we were looking at a commercial office building there and it had been vacant for 18 months. And I said to the agent what seems to be the trouble with getting a tenant? And he shrugged his shoulders and said, well, I don't know. It's been on the market for 18 months. And I said, has it ever occurred to you to put a sign outside the property? A big canvas sign hanging on the side of the building signs, and the grass verge saying, this building is for lease. Enquire within or go to this website. And he was stupefied by that thought. He said, what an amazingly good idea. You have to let people know. They think that they're going to go to their office because they're looking for office space.
Dolf de Roos 00:28:34 So now, would they be guaranteed to get a tenant within a week by putting a canvas sign on the building? Of course not. But I know we won't reduce the chances. And that's why if I can find a tenant before committing to buy the building, I'm pretty confident we'll get there. And I've got all these other techniques, Keith, of doing it like one that I really love is, let's say you've got a vacant warehouse and it's an ugly, horrible warehouse in a sea of similarly ugly and vacant warehouses. If you and I bought that, I would hesitate to suggest that we would have a tenant within a month. And here's how we'd do it. We would spend no more than $10,000, and we would go to the manager's office, because ultimately, the person who decides whether to lease our warehouse as opposed to another one, is not the CEO and the head office in New York or LA or wherever. It's not the cleaning lady or man who's going to sweep the floor. It's going to be the manager is going to manage it.
Dolf de Roos 00:29:28 So I get rid of the linoleum and I put in commercial grade carpet. I put in triple glazed or dual glazed windows. Keeps the noise out and the warmth in. I replace the fluorescent tubes with LED lights and replace the locks with electronic locks so he can never forget his keys. I put on an 80 inch LCD screen and tell him it's good for corporate training videos. We know he's never going to watch corporate training videos on it, but those TVs you can buy for $500 now, I put on a little coffee machine and make sure it's brewing when it looks, and have a fridge for end of week drinks, celebrations, and our unsuspecting manager, who's looked at seven ugly warehouses so far that day when he comes to our ugly warehouse and he opens that door to the manager's office subconsciously, or maybe consciously, he thinks, oh my gosh, if I lease this one, this is where I'm going to be packed for 40 hours a week for Lord knows how many years. He says I'll take it.
Dolf de Roos 00:30:17 And he hasn't even asked the rental. You might say that's bribery and corruption, but I think it's just offering a better product than the competition. No one else does this.
Keith Weinhold 00:30:27 Oh well. This is another brilliant example of using creativity in real estate investing. We're talking with the king of commercial real estate, Dolph Thomas More. We come back including some of his psychology and insights from the rich. This is general education. I'm your host, Keith Whitehall. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group Nmls 42056. They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation. Because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire. With leverage, you can start your prequalification and chat with President Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge Lending group.com. That's Ridge Lending group.com. And your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.
Keith Weinhold 00:31:31 If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just $25. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are. Text. Family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund. On your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. What's up everyone? This is HGTV Star Kombucha. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Wine hold and don't quit your day dream. Welcome back to Get Syndication. You're listening to episode 513 of the show that's created more passive income for busy people just like you than nearly any show in the world.
Keith Weinhold 00:32:55 I'm your host, Keith Whitehall. We're at the king of commercial real estate, Dolph Durst. Just like he has a lot of creative, proven types of things that you can do to improve commercial real estate. He also has a lot of those ideas for residential because he's been around the game for so long. So tell us about some more of those creative ways to add value to residential real estate.
Dolf de Roos 00:33:17 Well, probably. Like most people who end up focusing on commercial real estate, I got started in residential and that's where I first deployed some of my creativity. And I noticed, for instance, that I'd have a rental property that had no garage and no carport. And when you think about it, a tenant's biggest asset because it's not their home, it tends to be their car. One could argue that because they waste money on expensive cars every two years, that's why they can't afford to buy a home. But we won't go there. So if it's their car, if there's no carport and no garage, that means their biggest asset is in the rain.
Dolf de Roos 00:33:49 The sleet, the sun, the shine, the hail, you name it. So by building a carport, we can protect their biggest asset and it's worth a lot more to them by any means. If you have a carport on a house, that house will rent for about $80 a month extra. An 80 a month times 12 is 960. Call it $1,000 extra, a rent in a year. And Keith, I can build a carport for $1,000 easily. It's simply for one in each corner and then a roof with a bit of a slope. Why the slope? Well, if it rains, the rain falls off. If you're really cheap, you can get away with three posts. It still stands, you know. But no. And I'm being silly, but we sometimes make them with two posts and cantilever them. They're a bit more expensive, but then there are no posts out front so I can build a carport for $1,000, and then I get $1,000 extra a year coming in. And when you think about it again, which other investment can you think of that once you've consummated the deal, once you own it, you can spend an extra thousand dollars and then get 100% return on that money.
Dolf de Roos 00:34:49 And as they say in the infomercials. But wait, it gets even better. Because think about it. Let's say we have that carport built, but we haven't paid for it yet. And so we've got our thousand dollars a year extra of rental coming in. We go back to the appraiser and say, we want a new appraisal With an extra $1,000 coming in, he's likely to appraise it at $10,000 more. With that increased appraisal of 10,000, we go back to the bank and say, Mr. Bank manager, remember I got a 70 or 80% more. I've got now got an appraisal for 10,000 more. Will you give me a modest 70% loan on that? Well, banks are in the game of lending money and making a profit. So they say yes. So you get 7000 from the bank. Let's use 1000 of that 7000 to pay for the carport. It's now paid for. That leaves us with $6,000 cash. And the question is, is it earned income? And the answer is no, it's not earned income.
Dolf de Roos 00:35:42 There's no income tax on it. Is that the sale of something? Nope. Didn't sell it. No sales tax, no capital gains. It's tax free money. And you might say but hang on, you've now borrowed $7,000 that you have to be interested. Even at a ridiculously high 10%, that would only cost 700 a year. But we're collecting an extra thousand a year. So when you build this carport, you have two choices. One is pay cash for it and get 100% return on your money. Or the second one is don't pay any money for it, but $6,000 of tax free money in your pocket and get $300 a year surplus cash flow index for inflation for the rest of your life. Like, why would you not do that?
Keith Weinhold 00:36:25 Well, and it's a terrific example of how to accidentally improve the property. And it's so interesting that you bring this up, Dolph, because just a few weeks ago here on the show, I talked about garage real estate. I mentioned how adding a carport can often be more cost effective for a landlord from an ROI standpoint, than constructing a garage.
Keith Weinhold 00:36:43 I also talked about the future with autonomous cars. If people are going to need garages as much as they will, but that's into the future, and that's another subject in itself. All for one really important thing. I know that probably even more important than the actual investing is getting people in the right mindset to do this in the first place. You've studied this in really unexpected psychology behind wealth creation. I think a lot of it is counterintuitive, but it kind of makes sense because if you come from a scarcity and conventional mindset and you just do mediocre stuff, you're only going to get a mediocre outcome. So why don't you talk to us more about breaking down that psychology that most Americans and most residents of everywhere in the world really struggle with?
Dolf de Roos 00:37:28 Well, my pleasure. I had been teaching real estate for about 15 years and I decided why? I don't know, but I decided to run a survey to find out how many of my students became a millionaire within 18 months. That was my expected time frame of reasonableness.
Keith Weinhold 00:37:43 Is that I was actually wealthy.
Dolf de Roos 00:37:45 Right? And I was pretty confident. But when the results came in, I was devastated because it was fewer than 4%. And in my mind, 4% wasn't even statistically significant. Meaning if you take a thousand people, a random 4% are going to become millionaires. One's going to marry into money, one's going to win the lottery, one's going to win at a casino, and the fourth one's going to fall over a paper bag and looks inside. And we just believe that there's a million bucks there. So I vowed to stop teaching until I'd cracked the nut, because my dilemma was, how is it that when you give people all the tools you think they need to become fabulously wealthy, they still don't do it right? And what I found is that it had nothing to do with my rate of speech or my accent. Not that I have one, of course, or the content of my information or the sequencing of it. It had everything to do with the subconscious mind of the student, the fear.
Dolf de Roos 00:38:38 And he has that stance. You're a young kid and you say, hey, mom or dad, I want a bicycle. And they say, well, what do you think, kiddo? That money grows on trees and I know where the parents coming from. Hey, money's not that easy to come by. Temper your expectations of what you'll get for your bet. But this kid is. Our money doesn't grow on trees. Meaning money's hard to come by. And how often have we been told money can't buy you happiness. And money is the root of all evil. And when I say that, someone always points out no, the full saying in the Bible is for the love of money is the root of all evil. There's a big difference. And I'll say, yes, there is a big difference. But to the subconscious mind, it's still here's money and evil in the same sentence, and it's unconsciously makes that association. And the religious even say that it is easier to get a camel through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to get to heaven.
Dolf de Roos 00:39:24 In other words, if you're rich, you're condemned to hell. And that's a nice, strong belief system to take on board, even subconsciously. And by the way, most people don't know what the eye of the needle is. The eye of the needle was the entrance to East Jerusalem and even camels. And I've been there. I've said the camel said to get down on their knees as a sign of respect before they could enter. So there's a reason behind all these things, but the subconscious mind takes aboard. Money can buy you happiness. Money's hard to come by if you work hard for it. You don't deserve that money's root of lever. You won't get to heaven. You condemned to hell. And how do we describe the rich kids? We say they are so rich. That filthy rich. They're so rich. That stinking rich we associate being rich with filth and stench. So that is why in the United States and every Western nation, when someone wins the lottery and we no longer win 10 or $20,000, it's 300 million or 800 million or 1.2 billion when people win the lottery within five years of winning, 80% of the winners are back to where they were before they won.
Dolf de Roos 00:40:25 Right? And why is that? I discovered that it's because subconsciously, even though they're happy they won it and they going to tell their boss they're going to quit and they're going to buy their parents a nice home and they're going to get a new car. But subconsciously they feel they don't deserve it because they haven't worked hard for it. They're not going to be happy. They're now evil people. They're not going to go to heaven, and they're filthy and they stink. And the only way to overcome that is to get rid of the source of the problem, which is the money. And you'll see it happen again and again and again. So what we do is we dissolve what's in the subconscious mind, all these things that we've been saying without realizing it over and over and over again and replace them with more empowering beliefs. And the great thing about the subconscious mind is, initially, you don't even have to believe the thing that you're going to say over and over again to replace those old ones, but it could be something as simple as money is good or a bit more sophisticated.
Dolf de Roos 00:41:18 My poverty helps no one, but my wealth can help a lot of people.
Keith Weinhold 00:41:22 The more you have, the more you can give.
Dolf de Roos 00:41:24 Exactly as the reverend says, I'm a magnet for money. And so when we get into this mode of thinking differently, then all of a sudden people find that the money starts flowing and we give people specific exercises to do. And it's you think by how is that going to make difference? But it does. And so what I found when I introduced these concepts into my real estate teaching, the success went from under 4% to over 80%. And if that's not evidence enough that this works, I don't know what is.
Keith Weinhold 00:41:56 Yes, it really takes changing that mindset to break down these old stereotypes and have the confidence to say and act upon things like financially free beats debt free. But if you raise to think that money is a scarce resource, you think that retiring debt is a good thing, or don't focus on getting your money to work for you. Focus on getting other people's money to work for you.
Keith Weinhold 00:42:17 A lot of people don't even know what that means. But yeah, it takes breaking down some of these simple things that we all began to learn when we were age five or something like that. Golf is we're winding down here. You operate globally. You play globally. That intimidates a lot of people. They don't really know how to do that. But it's giving you this wherewithal to say that real estate is the only profession that can truly be played globally. Tell us about that.
Dolf de Roos 00:42:44 Well, when you think about it, if you study to become, say, an attorney, you can't just up and leave the US and go to Germany or Peru or Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to practice, you've got to study their local laws and set the bar exam. If you're a physician, you can't just go to another country and conduct frontal lobotomies on patients. You've got to study and hit the bar exam. I had a friend who was a dermatologist, a skin doctor from Austria. He moved to Australia after eight years of study to get his qualifications.
Dolf de Roos 00:43:13 They wouldn't accept them here to start all over again. And he said that's ridiculous. And he became a farmer and was very happy doing that. But when you think about it, not only our real estate investors welcomed all over the world, but they think that you're going to bring money with you. You don't have to, of course. In fact, if you're going to invest as a US citizen in another country, I would not recommend bringing U.S. dollars with you. I'd recommend borrowing locally, because if you bring U.S. dollars with you, then you're subject to exchange rate fluctuations. So just borrow locally and then you've got no risk from that at all. But despite the fact that the other countries, the host countries think that you're an investor, you're going to bring money. So they welcome you with open arms. I think it's the only profession where you are never discriminated against. Your welcomed. You're made to feel welcome. They want more of you. They encourage you to come with delegations of other investors.
Dolf de Roos 00:44:05 It's kind of good gig to be on.
Keith Weinhold 00:44:08 Make the World Yours. The UN recognizes 193 world nations. Get out and see them and invest outside your own home country if you have the ability to. Well, Duff, you've got this interesting combination of commercial real estate focus, a great grasp of the mindset and how to help people with the wealth mindset. And then thirdly, you also operate globally. So it's been really interesting to speak with you. You help people in so many ways with a lot of your teaching resources. So why don't you let our audience know how they can engage with that?
Dolf de Roos 00:44:41 We have a lot of programs that we run from time to time. I mentioned I saw a client in the UK. He was an example of someone we did a fly out for. I'd spend three days just with that one client to help him with his portfolio. But the thing I've got coming up is a live training and people can get a free seat to attend and learn more at my website called Dolf Live.
Dolf de Roos 00:45:03 So Dorfman and Dolf and then live Live.com golf Dolph Live.com. You can see what we've got coming up there. It's entirely free to attend. And then, you know, once that event's gone, I'm sure we'll post other things there, but that's the best way of staying informed with what I've got going. Part of my passion, Keith, is sharing it. You know, it's pretty boring doing it on your own. And one of the biggest thrills I get is when you get feedback by email or however, from someone who said, well, when I heard this or saw that or read this, I wasn't even sure if it would work and I certainly wasn't sure if it would work for me. But look at what I've done since then, and that gives you a feeling that you can't describe in words. That's pretty cool. You change someone's life and you don't even really know who they are, then that's kind of that's fun stuff.
Keith Weinhold 00:45:48 The ruse has been helpful to me in our audience today. The King of Commercial Real Estate, thanks so much for coming on to the show.
Dolf de Roos 00:45:55 Hey, thank you so much for the opportunity. I really enjoyed it.
Keith Weinhold 00:46:04 Check out Dolph Live.com. It looks like he's got a live event coming up this Thursday night, and if you missed that more afterward, like I was saying earlier, a ton of great episodes coming up here on the get Rich education podcast, just stacked. As always, you'll get lessons from me when I'm going to break down. Is any debt worth paying off? Which debts are which are not and why? That's going to help you know what to do with every debt for the rest of your life. And that's besides what I mentioned earlier, both new guests and very popular returning guests. I hope that you learned something today. I'll run it back next week when we meet again. Until then, I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Don't quit your daydream.
Speaker 8 00:46:54 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own.
Speaker 8 00:47:05 Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss the host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 00:47:22 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich education.com.
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Wealthy business owners and landlords are vilified. Yet, wealthy actors, athletes, and singers are praised.
This makes zero sense.
Businesses and landlords provide essential services; entertainers don’t.
The White House recently published a “rent control light” plan. It’s a bad idea and has almost zero chance of passing a divided Congress. I critique it.
Hear my in-person sit-down interview the Liberland President, Vit Jedlicka. Liberland is a micronation in Eastern Europe, between Serbia and Croatia.
It calls itself: “The freest sovereign state in the world, powered by the blockchain.”
Learn about Liberland’s: reason for existing, population, infrastructure, real estate, currency, geography, language, culture, problems, and more. You can purchase merits and become a citizen at Liberland.org.
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold 00:00:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Why do people vilify wealthy business owners and landlords but praise wealthy actors and athletes? Rent control plans must be killed where the real opportunity is in today's real estate market. Then my in-person sit down interview with the president of the micro nation of Levelland today and get rich education.
Robert Syslo 00:00:27 Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus has had its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.
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Corey Coates 00:01:13 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold 00:01:29 Welcome to Greece. From Dubrovnik, Croatia, to Dublin, Ohio, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold than you are inside episode 512 of get Rich education. You can set up your life so that you stop using your time to make money. Use the bank's money to make money. People come from scarcity families, just like I did with a scarcity mindset to think all debt is bad. Hang off debt won't make you wealthy. You don't build wealth. So by the time you reach age 62, you think, hey, I just paid off my last debt and now I can retire. It doesn't work that way. Well, why couldn't you retire sooner? Sheesh. So what do people mistakenly do? They end up working their whole life for people that have debt. Successful business owners and real estate investors carry debt.
Keith Weinhold 00:02:29 That's how they can own so much productivity and so many assets. And you know what's interesting here? Business owners and real estate moguls, they're the ones that often seem to be vilified, criticized, ridiculed for obtaining wealth when they took risks, took out loans and provided jobs or housing for others, yet Yet at the same time, somehow actors, athletes and singers are all praised for obtaining wealth as a performing artist. That makes zero sense. Why would you criticize a successful business owner like Amazon founder Jeff Bezos? Bezos probably made your life distinctly better by offering you convenient shopping for anything. Protein bars with a few clicks, free shipping, and pioneering drone delivery. A landlord is often vilified. Most landlords are mom and pop types that aren't even that wealthy. But even if they were, as long as they're not a slumlord, I mean, they took on risk debt, operating expenses, and being on call 24 over seven in order to provide others with housing. So with Bezos types and landlords, we're talking about taking risk to provide society with essentials like food and housing.
Keith Weinhold 00:03:58 And while the business owners get vilified baselessly performing artists like actors, athletes and singers do not. Yet they merely provide entertainment to society. Now I like entertainment and I follow sports to the NFL. Major League Baseball, the NBA. But their services are not essential. Take a movie actor. They get paid well for pretending to be somebody else. Consider how absurd that sounds. And yet they're praised for obtaining wealth from doing that. So this is really backwards. And, you know, I think that a lot of this resentment for business owners is that you can't really see what they do for you. Like, you can a performer that's on the front stage, like Beyonce or Lizzo or Taylor Swift, Business owners, real estate investors, they're on the back stage. And what an entertainer does front stage that is highly visible. I mean, that's my best guess about why this is. And a lot of the time it just comes back to these primordial human emotions like resentment and jealousy and envy. There is no reason to criticize the rich just solely for being wealthy Because deep down, it's all where we want to be.
Keith Weinhold 00:05:21 Anyway, how is Bezos bad and Lizzo good? I don't get it, but it's been that way for a while now. When you look at surveys of institutions that are most trusted over time, and it's been pretty much the same these past few decades, what's at the top of the polls are small businesses. People say that they're trusting of small businesses in your rental property. Business surely counts here. Small businesses trusted more than institutions like the media or politicians. So I encourage you on social media and wherever else to support small businesses. And it's kind of funny how friends they often might not put a like on your small business, though they say that they trust them and that they resent large businesses, you know? Then that friend turns right around and supports Apple, Coca-Cola, and Starbucks. people say they trust small business, but so often then they go patronize large businesses. Nothing wrong with patronizing large businesses, but you're just not doing what you're saying. So my point is, don't resent anyone just for financial success and consider outwardly supporting small businesses.
Keith Weinhold 00:06:40 If you indeed put a lot of trust in them yourself, just like much of America says that they do. Now, is there a movement afoot to disenfranchise big wealthy business owners or big landlords. I mean, we're talking about these very people that are resented. Well, one way is with rent control, that is capping the amount of rent that landlords can charge. Now, since Covid hit in March of 2020. Apartment rents are up 18% and single family rents are up 25%. Okay. Those are cumulative figures over this four plus year stretch. And that's actually not that much. It's about 5% a year. And now sure, political news has been like galactic big this month with the Trump shooting and the Biden drop out and the Kamala Harris endorsement as a Democratic frontrunner. And we rarely talk politics here for a few reasons. Number one, it's divisive. People lose their minds. Secondly, speculation is cheap. So much of politics is speculating on what might happen in the future. Well, there's one known here.
Keith Weinhold 00:08:01 Whether you like it or not, expect six more months of President Biden. And thirdly, politics is overblown. Its importance is inflated. A president rarely changes your life. But the good news in this is that you can your autonomy, your freedom, your decisions. You can change your life. So to put the politics aside, let's stick to a one issue subject. The white House revealed published what I call a rent control lite plan earlier this month. And to give some credit first, this the same plan it also repurposes publicly and to build more affordable housing. I sent you a link to the whole thing in our newsletter last week. Well, this rent control lite thing has almost zero chance of becoming law. VP Kamala Harris endorsed it on ex. President Trump would kill it even if it's revived under the next president. It has no realistic shot of passing a divided Congress. But let's look at this anyway. What was proposed is that if a property owner increases rent more than 5% annually, it would reduce tax incentives for large landlords.
Keith Weinhold 00:09:23 I'll tell you what large landlords are in a moment. Now, you could still increase rent by more than 5%. It would just reduce the federal tax breaks and it would have lasted for only two years. And the reason the white House put this proposal together for just two years is as a bridge to a time when more homes are expected to be built. I mean, that's the real intent here. And importantly, this all would have only applied to owners of 50 plus units. So that's mostly for apartment owners. Single family rental owners would be largely untouched, but consider how apartment owners could have lost their accelerated depreciation benefit, also known as their cost segregation. And note that I'm already talking about this rent control light proposal in the past tense, not the present tense, because this whole thing, it's just a bunch of virtue signaling to try to show that something is being done to rein in housing inflation. Well, this is really odd and awkward since the inflation came from the government in the first place.
Keith Weinhold 00:10:30 I mean, sheesh, this is like shooting someone in the foot and then trying to get praise for bandaging the victim that you just shot. Well, the federal government, they just don't do rent control on this level at all. They haven't. In fact, the feds haven't regulated rents on private buildings since World War two. So this really isn't a thing, but it just brings to light that rent control is a bad idea. It puts a cap on risk. Time after time after time. History shows us that it makes developers stop building. Now, the white House plan did have a carve out for new builds. Also, what this does is that landlords have no incentive to improve property. That's why it reduces housing supply, which is already low, and it creates long term dilapidated living conditions, like I touched on here just a couple episodes ago. But how weird to even make such an ill advised proposal. I mean, look, if government puts a price cap of $2 on a gallon of milk, then dairies will stop producing milk.
Keith Weinhold 00:11:41 Milk shelves are going to be empty. It's like in communist countries. This is why you saw photos of bread lines. When there are price controls, then manufacturers don't produce. And just the same, landlords would stop providing housing. If I didn't put a fine enough point on this yet. President Obama's top economist, Jason Furman. He probably said it best in the Washington Post. Furman says, quote, rent control has been about as disgraced as any economic policy in the toolkit. The idea that we'd be reviving and expanding it will ultimately make our housing supply problems worse, not better. End quote from President Obama's top economist 94% of economists agreed that rent control reduces quality and quantity of housing available. It is the most effective way to destroy a city. Aside from bombing it, what an ill conceived plan to regulate rents. That's rent control, but the most dangerous drinking game of 2024 that is still sipping at every mention of the interest rate lock in effect on a real estate or economics podcast. Though it's been two plus years since they made their dramatic rise.
Keith Weinhold 00:13:05 Many are still transfixed on mortgage rates. They recently hit a five month low below 7%, and a lot of people still expect mortgage rates to fall between today and next year, since inflation has now plunged from a high of 9.1% two years ago, down to 3% now, the Federal Reserve has held rates steady for more than a year now, and most don't expect any change either when they meet in two days. But be ready. Be prepared when mortgage rates fall substantially. Millions more buyers will qualify to buy a home, and this could substantially stoke housing demand and lift housing prices further. Now last week on the show, you heard gray investment coach narration. I discuss Libre land libre, land libre land. Earlier this month, I visited the exhibit hall at an event called FreedomFest. I saw the library and booth and I recognized their name, and I congratulated the people there in the booth. On that, the fact that I have heard of Liberland before, that's somewhat of a compliment to them. It shows me that they're doing something right, liberal, and is a small piece of land between Serbia and Croatia in Eastern Europe, and it apparently hasn't been claimed by any other nation for decades.
Keith Weinhold 00:14:32 The name Liberland, and I think it's easy to remember because it sounds like liberty. So that's how you pronounce it. Well, I got to talking to some of their representatives at the exhibit hall. They're all smart people, but there was no one person that had all the answers I was looking for. So I requested to speak with the president of Liberland. And about two hours later we made that happen. So today, shortly you will hear Liberland President Vit Jedlicka and I together. Now, the United Nations doesn't yet recognize Libya and all. Ask the president if other nations recognize it. Wikipedia calls liberal and a micro nation. It is seven square kilometers. That's almost three square miles. It's mostly forested. I don't believe there are any mountains there that I can see in the photos. It has Danube river frontage and just a few people there. The Danube river frontage is key because it contains an island that belongs to Leon, and also the Danube is key because it also connects to the Black Sea.
Keith Weinhold 00:15:40 And we'll see if it can be a tax free haven, which is apparently the intent. You might be able to see this working when you compare it to micro nations like Monaco and Liechtenstein. Some journalists have been skeptical about libre land. You'll see how I approach it with the president shortly. He champions laissez faire capitalism. Laissez faire means a minimal government. They're also making the new nation's laws transparent on the blockchain and an economy based on cryptocurrency. As for liberalized population, by March of this year, liberalism had 1200 registered citizens who had paid up to $10,000 for labor and passports, but fewer actually living in the nation now, working on it and building it. Neighbouring Croatia has at times been hostile and blocked off access to libre land. These past few years, you will hear some background noise in President Witte and his upcoming interview. So I ask for your attention and patience there and for all. We are in an exhibit hall at a conference. I'll just call him whit in the interview. And what does his day to day look like? He travels globally a lot, often trying to get into international diplomatic and friendship agreements.
Keith Weinhold 00:17:01 But how do you just adopt statehood out of nothing? That's what's interesting here. Now, when he describes libre land to me, you can't see it here in the audio only. But he often points to Liberty Island, an island on the Danube river that's part of Liberty. And does having a free nation mean that you have the freedom to do whatever you want on your land, or they're soon going to be hos there? I'll ask him that very question, literally. President and I coming up here shortly. First, as for more, I suppose, a familiar land here in the US. You can't make any money from the rental property that you don't own. We are here to help get you started being profitable that way. And it's free. Get some of those. Real estate pays five ways properties. Then we have access to a good number of them here at great a good variety, different property types, different geographies. But at times I'm asked where is the real estate opportunity today in this real estate market, with higher prices, higher rents normalize interest rates, higher operating expenses and low housing supply? Really the opportunity is in affordable housing.
Keith Weinhold 00:18:25 If I could just put two words to it. That's the short answer of affordable housing. Like I often say, provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional in today's market really emphasizes the affordable. That's where the sustainable demand is. Since so many want to be first time homebuyers are priced out of the market currently, it's like a dam that's waiting to break once interest rates go lower compared to a year ago, America has a lower proportion of homeowners and more renters, and the renter numbers just look to keep increasing due to that low affordability. And also this surge of immigrants from the past year or so. That is why you want to own affordable rental housing now. Affordable housing really that can mean a few things in a physical form. That could mean mobile home parks, single family homes, duplexes to fourplex or larger apartment buildings, but in any case, an income producing asset. Do you know what that does for you? That's like an employee that's working for you 24 over seven and without the personality problems, and they never call in sick.
Keith Weinhold 00:19:40 And when you're looking for a property, it's easier to screen properties that it is higher in screen employees. We can help set up an entire real estate investment plan for you with properties like a couple properties. I'll detail for you here shortly. And I also sent you these property details in the second section of last week's newsletter. You also got to see a photo of one of them. And by the way, you can get our wealth building newsletter by texting GR 266866. Just do it right now. What's on your mind for our free? Don't quit your daydream letter. Text GR 266866. And what's been in our newsletter lately? I showed you exactly where I think home prices are going to go by the year 2028. I loved writing about that and researching that for you in the Don't quit Your Daydream letter. Also, in recent letters, you got need to know details about our banks in real trouble now. The Wolf of Airbnb sentenced to prison y new homes will keep getting smaller. Why you can't blame investors for pricier housing.
Keith Weinhold 00:20:54 Why prioritizing property is a huge mistake, and the ten cities where you will regret buying property. And if those stories don't interest you, if getting the first crack at profitable income property does not interest you, then you won't want to subscribe. But if it sounds like those details interest you again, you can get the don't quit your day dream letter by texting gray to 266866 available properties we've had at Gray Marketplace lately that our investment coach can help me with are these two brand new single family homes that make great rentals. The first one is in Prairie Grove, Arkansas. These are the places where the numbers work, and Arkansas has been named the most landlord friendly of all 50 states. It is four bed, two bath purchase price of 288 K and a rent of $2,200. Good numbers for a new build there. It's 1500 and 50ft². The second property, also a new build, is in Pinson, Alabama that's just northeast of Birmingham. And this single family rental is three bed, two bath. The purchase price is 303 K, the rent is $2,000, it's 1400 and eight square feet.
Keith Weinhold 00:22:14 And that rent to price ratio that's not as good as the first one in Arkansas. But of course, Alabama's got those ultra low property tax rates that you get to pay. Yet you can own it and reside in any state or nation. We can help set up an entire real estate investment plan for you, whether it's with properties like these or others, with our investment coaching and it is free for you. Yes, it is just this free as sun, fresh air and hugs. If you think you're ready to buy some real estate pays five ways property. Book a time to chat at Gray marketplace.com/coach to help connect you with a marketplace of income properties. That's grey marketplace.com/coach liberal and president what you'd like and I straight ahead you're listening to get rich education. Hey you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group Nmls 42056. They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire.
Keith Weinhold 00:23:32 With leverage, you can start your prequalification and chat with President Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge Lending group.com, that's Ridge Lending group.com. And your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866.
Robert Helms 00:24:54 Everybody it's Robert Elms with the Real Estate Guys radio program.
Robert Helms 00:24:57 So glad you found Keith wine old and get rich education. Don't quit your day dream.
Keith Weinhold 00:25:11 Hey. Welcome back to get rich action. We're talking with someone that's going to explain a different subject to us. We're talking about starting up and the potential new nation. I was the president of that nation called Libre, Leon, I was there. President Witt, welcome in. Good to meet you. It's so good to have you here. And, you know, interestingly, we met at an event called Freedom Fest. So this is potentially so parallel with that as you're looking to develop your own nation now at a place like Freedom Fest, I think we have a lot of people that have a certain set of opinions, and a lot of people at a place like Freedom Fest, where you champion ideals, would probably love to tell you how they would like changes to be made in the United States. But I think if you ask that same person, okay, what if you begin with a clean slate? How would you begin a nation anew, but you're actually trying to do that? So tell us about Libber Land.
Keith Weinhold 00:26:04 It's pretty.
Vit Jedlicka 00:26:05 Exciting to.
Robert Helms 00:26:06 Hear Kennedy.
Vit Jedlicka 00:26:07 The candidate for president, talking about his plans to utilize blockchain to make the country transparent and or functioning. Libra is, I would say, at least 5 to 10 years ahead of any other nation states. And utilizing that, we are combining the best technology that is out there with the best ideas, ideology that is out there, which is, of course, libertarianism, making sure that the society as free as possible within some framework of basic rules. So this is exactly what we're doing. And we were looking for a piece of land to manifest that in physical world. And here we go. It's so liberal and it's a beautiful piece of land between Russia and Serbia that was not claimed by any other country for more than 35 years. We came there, we struggled with like we actually took nine years to even get inside of it properly. And now we're building and living there for more than a year.
Keith Weinhold 00:26:58 So this seven square kilometer plot of land between Croatia and Serbia, that is on the Danube floodplain, you've got frontage on the Danube river, even an island and the Danube river here in this Start-Up nation, if you will, of libre land.
Keith Weinhold 00:27:14 Really, as I've come to understand it, one real goal of liberalism is just to have any nation in the world recognize it as its own sovereign nation.
Vit Jedlicka 00:27:25 We actually got a couple countries to write or sign a regular deals, like with other states. We started with Somaliland, which was at the time unrecognized country. It's fully functional. Interesting story. It's actually former Peace of Somalia, which got independence like 25 years ago. And they're fairly finally prosperous and functioning, even without any recognition by any other country in the world. Now, they got recently recognized by Ethiopia. We followed up with Haiti agreement. We were signing a couple more agreements. Right now, I'm actually heading to one of the African countries to sign some friendship agreement. So it's not that the other countries don't recognize us now. We're working hard on diplomacy. You know, we have diplomatic relations with places like El Salvador, where we were on official diplomatic visits. So, of course, traditional form of recognition is one of our priorities.
Vit Jedlicka 00:28:13 But it's not the number one priority, really. Our number one priority is to finish a very close, a whole model of statehood and utilize the 745,000 people that applied for citizenship, for really real building of the country itself and the nation.
Keith Weinhold 00:28:31 Some recognition is coming slowly, but pulling back a bigger picture. Why do this? Why take this on? Why start your own nation?
Vit Jedlicka 00:28:39 Why not? I think leading by a good example is the best way to do things like talking about liberty. I did a lot of educational work on explaining people why liberty works, but it's much better to do things in the practical terms.
Keith Weinhold 00:28:53 Now, what's interesting is, you know, we've talked about freedom and the ideals of freedom earlier. This freedom mean freedom to do whatever you want.
Vit Jedlicka 00:29:03 You know, within some boundaries, of course, as long as you don't breach other people's freedoms and you have to find the right set up. And but right now, the problem with the current society is that there are so many regulations, you don't even know what you're reaching, and you're usually not reaching anybody's property or anybody.
Vit Jedlicka 00:29:20 It's just a bunch of stupid regulations that make your life tough. You cannot do business. You cannot even help your community. It's funny what kind of stuff we are dealing with in Croatia right now. There is a mosquito calamity in the neighborhood around Libre land and the local municipality don't have money to fix it. And they also don't let us to fix it because you have to have special license for fixing it. So everybody is suffering under the mosquito calamity, which is California.
Keith Weinhold 00:29:47 Okay, so that's an example of overregulation, potentially too many laws. You just brought up one of the limits of freedom, potentially. Well, we don't want people to be able to do anything or therefore they might be.
Vit Jedlicka 00:29:57 Able to hurt or to.
Keith Weinhold 00:29:58 Harm another person, but therefore that would be some sort of of law. And then there would be some need to sort of enforce that. So how does a start up country that wants to be a free nation, you know, how do you meet needs like laws and enforcement and perhaps a judicial process.
Vit Jedlicka 00:30:16 Or do you have a standard framework for the country? There is now a newly elected Congress. It's still a test election, but it has been already elected according to all the principles that the blockchain is bringing full transparency, immutability. It happens within the split of second of the very minimal cost. So all these things are actually already happening, and the Congress will now take all the laws that were prepared by the Preparatory Committee. And only if we have the whole framework of the laws necessary to run a state. I have 250 pages of regulations, very simple framework, which already allows a society to function quite well. And I would like to keep it that way. You know, keep the Constitution at the, let's say, the 20 pages and another 230 pages of different laws that define the the ways that the society should work. And anybody basically allowed to read all the regulations in the country within one day. It's not like here, right in the US.
Keith Weinhold 00:31:10 Yes. But its population grows, is the infrastructure grows, is more complicated, needs must be met.
Keith Weinhold 00:31:16 The size of government invariably and inevitably seems to expand with all existing nations in the world. I think the UN recognizes 193 sovereign nations currently. How do you keep the size of government from expanding over the long term in Libya?
Vit Jedlicka 00:31:32 It's a challenge. Of course, but the way we keep it is the way that there is only one institution that can make new laws, and it's kind of a corporate governance of liberalism. But that governance is in check by three other institutions that can get rid of the laws. The first and most important one is public veto. So majority of citizens can veto any law or regulations that they don't like. Second one is the Constitutional Court. So the Constitutional Court looks into the law if it basically is only focused on security and justice or diplomacy, so that the state shouldn't legislate on other things, really let other things to the private sector. So the Constitutional Court strictly looks if it adheres to that. That's another important institution. Then there is something like House of Lords of liberal minded, who can also veto the laws that the corporate governance the Congress actually creates.
Vit Jedlicka 00:32:23 So one institution to make laws and three institutions to get rid of it.
Keith Weinhold 00:32:28 Else about what's there now, the natural resources, the population and the infrastructure.
Vit Jedlicka 00:32:33 Well, that's the beautiful territory with the island next to liberal land. This is part of liberal land. It's called Liberty Island. It's a long, beautiful sandy beach. Right now, the under construction, there is 24, three houses in this area. So it will be one of the third thing will be the tourism. And we need to be able to host the visitors. We are planning two major music festivals and conferences in the summer, which will take place in August and in September. Of course, you're very well invited. We want to promote the tourism in Berlin, but also in the whole region. The biggest resorts. And it's like that with any country that is prosperous around the world. Be it Hong Kong or Singapore, is not the natural resources. It's the capacity of people to freely make, trade and do business.
Keith Weinhold 00:33:20 You're right.
Keith Weinhold 00:33:20 In fact, a place like yes, Hong Kong or Singapore or even Japan itself have been exemplary of that. A place can be prosperous without having many natural resources. It's truly about the ingenuity of the people we talk about. The people tell us more about the population.
Vit Jedlicka 00:33:35 The population. Right now we've got 800,000 people, almost that sign up for citizenship, which is a huge pipeline. I think the reasonable like ideal population of Liberal would be around 140,000. So we cannot even accept everybody to physically live in liberal land because we would be so overpopulated. Right now we've got some thousand citizens and 6500 residents that basically went through the pipeline, and there is a couple dozens of people living on the territory of liberal lands and working and building stuff. So it's kind of fun to see that initial development. very early into the development. There is still a quite a bit of obstacles to really speed up the development of the brand, mainly installed by Croatia, but we're very happy that after all these years we're able to actually be there physically and develop stuff.
Vit Jedlicka 00:34:23 So we're building a small hospital. There are seven construction workers that take care of it. We're also building the Treehouse resort. There is another ten guys working on that, and that there is a bunch of people that came to settle and they're helping with some stuff for the site. And then there is around 150 people that live around Liberal and that are connected and are supporting the movement. Well.
Keith Weinhold 00:34:44 Now we're a real estate platform. We're going to have both public land and privately.
Vit Jedlicka 00:34:50 Every land is private, in a sense. In labor land. The deal is that right now, people can actually come to the land and claim piece of land if they have enough merit. There is are the the shares of liberal land and can actually not even exchange them if they just have them. They have the right to settle things for fun, which is kind of exciting even though there are all these obstacles. But we're helping people to get over them and get the development of the country going as fast as possible.
Keith Weinhold 00:35:16 Can a person purchase merits or purchase land in labor land right now?
Vit Jedlicka 00:35:21 Anybody that donates to Libre land on the website gets the merits.
Keith Weinhold 00:35:26 Are there going to be things like Hoa's in Libre land? Is that something that you foresee? What is actually homeowners associations where you have neighborhoods and boards in those neighborhoods where you know they need to approve of things like, hey, you can only paint your home for different colors, and you need to mow your grass within every two weeks.
Vit Jedlicka 00:35:46 Well, that surely there will be different types of associations and liberal. We're not going to force one or the other type. This property development here on Liberty Island, the three houses and this area will be kind of association of sort. We want to have 24 people that that invest into the tree house, and they would act as a community. They will help each other, but they will also have the place to visitors. To really make sure that we have a good initial settlement for the permanent population. And I would like every single one of these guys to like some nice story behind how they came to live and then why they're building a house there. We want to make a reality TV show out of it as soon as possible as well.
Keith Weinhold 00:36:28 What about currency? The euro is used in the area. But you mentioned blockchain earlier, and I don't think you plan on using the euro in liberally. Tell us about that. We don't do.
Vit Jedlicka 00:36:38 That. We use liberal and dolar. We use liberal and merit. Those are the main currencies that are tied with our blockchain. And the pound dollar was launched on exchanges three months ago, reading quite nicely, steadily at 2 USD per $1 billion. So this is like also demanded currency by our suppliers.
Keith Weinhold 00:36:56 Is it a cryptocurrency? Yes.
Vit Jedlicka 00:36:58 It's just my own currency of our blockchain. Our blockchain is standalone. It's not depending on any other blockchain. Our citizens are the one ones that securely network and run the network. They run the servers. Every single citizen in Lebanon has the right to run the run the network. That's kind of all we know. We're not really being dependent on any other network like Ethereum or Polkadot. We are simply running our own thing with its own main token. The main token is liberal dollar, but the main political token is liberal and varied, and that also comes with the political voting rights.
Keith Weinhold 00:37:32 Do you foresee there being a future rental property market on libre land?
Vit Jedlicka 00:37:39 Oh, of course, of all these, all these three houses are meant to be for rental for bigger events or team building. So this is something that is happening right now, and I wish we could have at least, you know, 50 bedrooms there by the end of summer.
Keith Weinhold 00:37:54 You know, we talked about how society might work on liberally, and why don't we pull back a bit more and talk about that physical geography, because you chose an area that's basically on the Danube floodplain. So it's probably pretty fertile and it's near some other populated nations. But of course, there are some areas of the world that no one else is claiming. Tell us about how you chose this area over. All the others in the.
Vit Jedlicka 00:38:16 Area was in the most reasonable place, I would say, between the two countries that had war, and they learned to sort out things in a peaceful way. And, you know, Antarctica is also on claim, but you don't want to stay there.
Vit Jedlicka 00:38:27 It's for freezing, right? This particular place is heart shaped. It's seven square kilometers. It was a culturally similar environment to where I was born, so I was considering it as a perfect place to start. And you can fit.
Keith Weinhold 00:38:39 You can get all four seasons in Libre land. What else should one know about Libre land that they come approach you with questions about what do people really want to hear about?
Vit Jedlicka 00:38:50 They of course are interested in the sport. They want to see how what kind of utility does it have? They're a bunch of countries where you can use it to get in and out, which is kind of cool. But the main utility for Americans, for example, is that they use it on crypto exchanges, or they use it with different financial institutions as a second passport. If the US passport is not good for that, it's a great membership club, you know, in the country that is just being born. And and it's a great social gathering. Think about this. 35,000 Americans that sign up for citizenship as well.
Vit Jedlicka 00:39:22 We've got a small consulate in every bigger state, or at least a representative person. The branch, for example, here is representing liberals in Washington, D.C. so we've got a nice network of nice guys all around the place, and then a potential big supportive network with all of these people that sign up for citizenship.
Keith Weinhold 00:39:41 Now, how do you get the word out about libertarians so that people can get interested? Of course, we are an example of this right now, as our audience is learning about liberal land and the pros and cons of this concept of a potential condition. How do others learn about it?
Vit Jedlicka 00:39:55 There were articles written in Liberal, and I believe in more than 40,000 different medias actually, so we were pretty heavily covered in past. I believe more than 1 or 2 billion people learned about it through the media outreach, but the word is also spreading from person to person. Like people like it. They get on board their friends, their families. It's kind of exciting to see that.
Keith Weinhold 00:40:18 What about the language in the culture that you see developing here? Will it feel European just based on its geographic proximity? Is that what you foresee, or does it have more to do with where the inhabitants come from?
Vit Jedlicka 00:40:31 The English, of course, is number one language, but we are also developing liberal English out of all the mistakes that we make in English, that makes the language a little bit difficult to learn and understand.
Keith Weinhold 00:40:41 Americans have to learn English.
Vit Jedlicka 00:40:43 We've got a quite nice culture there, which is, of course mixture of the local Slavic culture with this international make sense nowadays, people, a lot of people from Scandinavia that are moving in. I think we've got a very good German group now coming. There is quite a few Americans that are being involved. It's quite difficult, for example, for Americans to stay liberal. And right now we have to improve our relationship with Croatia because Americans are being banned from actually, for some strange reason.
Keith Weinhold 00:41:15 Okay, still some antagonism with your neighbor Croatia. That's kind of.
Vit Jedlicka 00:41:20 The situation.
Keith Weinhold 00:41:20 In Croatia has created some access problems as well. Tell us about that.
Vit Jedlicka 00:41:25 Well, there's been solved. Last year we when we we we came in to liberalize with more than 60 people at the same time. So they had no means of preventing that access. And since that time actually have free entry in an hour of liberalized. We have a small border crossing there with the with the Croatian police and kind of agreement that we can pass in and out, which is nice.
Keith Weinhold 00:41:46 Try to keep things smooth with Croatia there on the one side of Liberal and here this new Start-Up nation. And we're talking with president Vit here of Liberal. And are there any last things that people need to know about liberalism before I ask how they can go to your website and learn more? Are there any just other last things I think we should know?
Vit Jedlicka 00:42:05 It's a great opportunity to visit now with these two festivals. Those are nice social gatherings. It's the floating metal festival in August. That's the way.
Keith Weinhold 00:42:14 Man. Like the Burning Man.
Vit Jedlicka 00:42:15 Yeah, about the float. That's floating, man. Because we're on Danube. And then there is the Liverpool Echo, which is a major international festival that has moved on this year, which is based on an article, a famous Mexican festival that will be a probably the biggest cultural event this year.
Keith Weinhold 00:42:33 Well, literally. And be a success if it is a net exporter rather than a net importer, because it's difficult to have sectors for everything from industry to agriculture in Beyblade.
Vit Jedlicka 00:42:46 Well, our biggest export is freedom. Ideas like it's like Chile spreading like wildfire. think about it. Like for two months we had the biggest immigration in the world. We go to the United States, where there was more people applying for citizenship of liberal. And then there were applicants for green cards in the United States. The idea itself, it's something that the time has come. There is amazing interest in building new countries, building free countries. And right now I can see that we are on the right track when people like Canada are pushing for transparency through blockchain, because we know what they are talking about. We have already done it and we are applying it in the real world.
Keith Weinhold 00:43:24 Well, it's an interesting experiment in this way. You, the listener of the viewer, you can follow it as an experiment, as an example of what to not do or what to do as live land develops. Why don't you let our audience know how they can learn more about it?
Vit Jedlicka 00:43:42 Fairly easy to apply for citizenship.
Vit Jedlicka 00:43:44 You can first become your resident and then come and help some different means. Or you just directly go for the citizenship. It's an investment of $10,000 or donation of $10,000. And you become a member of of our community with the passport and with the right contacts to the right people. That will really help you to get the best out of the community.
Keith Weinhold 00:44:04 Well, I don't have a great chat with a national president every day, but I sure did today. Thanks so much for your time. It's been interesting learning about liberalism. Thank you very much.
Vit Jedlicka 00:44:15 Made me think UK and I hope to see you a liberal one.
Keith Weinhold 00:44:17 Maybe you will. It sounds like a donation of ten K gets you a liberal and passport. Like I said earlier, as of March 1200 people had paid up to that amount for the passport. Music festivals and conferences in Libya. In the next few months, that could be a way to check it out. Now, it's certainly something I'd need to know more about before I could either endorse it or reject it.
Keith Weinhold 00:44:48 Citizenship in Libya planned to get more of the skeptic side. The criticism I would visit the Libyan Wikipedia page and get ready for some dismissal of its diplomatic recognition there. Then you can visit Libre Land Oregon, learn more about citizenship status, the passport actually helping with the construction of the territory and earning libre land merits, which is a cryptocurrency. If you find it interesting, it's a matter for you to do some deep due diligence on next week. The King of Commercial Real Estate will be here with us. Until then, host Keith Wendell. Don't quit your day, Adrian.
Speaker 6 00:45:31 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 00:45:59 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.
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Coming to you from FreedomFest in Las Vegas, I talk with Founder Mark Skousen. He’s been named one of the World’s Top 20 Living Economists.
Also, an event summary with GRE Investment Coach, Naresh.
Learn about the deleterious consequences of rent control. President Joe Biden supports it (somewhat).
If four tenants live in identical fourplex units, it actually makes sense for them to pay different rent amounts. I explain.
We can construct more housing by relaxing zoning requirements in the right way—reduce off-street parking requirements, increase ADUs, no rent control, reduce minimum lawn sizes.
There’s higher homelessness in L.A., San Francisco, and Austin than Houston. Houston has a lower-cost market, few zoning requirements, and less NIMBY mindset.
Politicians run on platforms like immigration, abortion, and inflation. But they don’t run on reducing the debt because they don’t see it as a problem that they created.
At FreedomFest, I attended a presidential debate between the current candidates of the Libertarian Party, Green Party, and Constitution Party. Most or all agreed that the Fed should be abolished.
The common theme at FreedomFest was: “Government, get out of the way.”
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold** ((00:00:01)) - - Welcome to GRE. I'm Keith Weinhold. I'm here at the world's largest gathering of free minds. It's a conference called Freedom Fest where I talk to the conference founder. He's been named one of the top 20 living economists in the world today, as well as a talk with one of our great investment coaches to learn what my conference takeaways are and more. Freedom, life, liberty and the pursuit of real estate and investing today. And get rich education.
Robert Syslo** ((00:00:36)) - - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus has had its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.
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Corey Coates** ((00:01:21)) - - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:01:37)) - - We're gonna go from Oswego, New York to Lake Oswego, Oregon, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith, while you are inside, get rich education. I'm attending a free office live and in person in Las Vegas today. One key economic freedom and what makes a free market free is that ability for producers and suppliers and landlords to set prices based on what the market will bear, whether that's a high price or a low price. Now, what's wrong with rent control, which is a law that puts a ceiling on the amount of rent that you're allowed to charge? Well, that sounds like a nice thing to do for one set of people in the short term. Well, rent control has the same effect as price controls on consumer goods.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:02:30)) - - If the government thinks that cars are becoming too expensive, and they set up a new law that says that you can't charge more than $20,000 if you want to sell a new car, well, then those manufacturers will stop producing cars and soon enough, you, the consumer, cannot buy a car. You'd no longer have an automobile market at all. And the consumer suffers under no choice and even austerity. Put price controls on beef jerky and companies will stop making beef jerky. Put price controls on rent called rent control, and landlords have zero incentive to provide property, no motivation to improve property. And there is a raft just reams of evidence and studies out there that show that rent control, that is a surefire way to then reduce the supply of functional housing, just like the supply of cars or beef jerky would get cut. That's especially not a good solution in today's real estate supply constrained world. And, you know, here's what's interesting. The government created the inflation in the first place. That led to the high price problem that they think they can cure through rent control.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:03:52)) - - I mean, government keeps trying to solve a problem that they created. Well, just take a new course, a new direction and stop the inflation. In that way, you'll cure the higher prices long term and then near term. What you can do is relax zoning requirements in order to create more housing. I mean, in three cases here, less government cures the problems, no inflation, no rent control, and thirdly, no stringent zoning. Knock down all three of those walls and instead, now what have you done? You've encouraged a bunch of builders to come into a market. You've encouraged competition. And what does competition do? It increases quality and it yeah, lowers prices. So cure the problem by knocking down the walls. You know, you as a landlord, I don't even think that there should be laws that say that you have got to charge every ten at the same rent amount. Yeah, and that is even if each one of your tenants has seemingly an identical unit, say, in a fourplex building.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:05:04)) - - Now I'm on different fourplex buildings and I have most everyone like throughout history, I've had just about every tenant paid different rent amounts in the same building, even though all of the units were built at the same time and had the same square footage. Now a real estate investing newcomer, you know, they might think that that sounds unfair, that these tenants with basically identical units paying different rent amounts. But we all know how it works in practice, in real life. I mean, one of those four tenants might have the front unit with the best views, while the tenant with the best view. Well, of course they're going to be willing to pay more for that unit. Well, that right there, that's free market supply and demand. The fourplex unit with the best view will rent out faster and for more. But instead of that arrangement, if it's mandated, say, by the government that everyone in the building must pay the same rent, say that each of the four units must pay exactly $2,000.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:06:07)) - - Oh, well, then the tenant with the worst view, which then has less benefit to living there, has to subsidize the tenant with the best view that already has the best benefit of living there, because they must all pay exactly $2,000. And then what about things like several months from now? Say you have a vacancy at Christmas. Well, it's hard to get a tenant to move at Christmas to get them in there. So you'll charge a low rent just to get someone in there then. Versus how you charge more now in summertime, because tenants demand units, a lot of them want to get settled in during the summer before the school year starts. What about a tenants living in your fourplex or rental single family home for five years, and their unit hasn't been painted or renovated in a while, and the tenant has seen you already. Well, they're probably going to pay less then a new tenant will in there say freshly painted unit. So my point is that even making every tenant of one individual fourplex building have to pay the same rent amount.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:07:10)) - - Well, that is a form of rent control and that is actually unfair if they all have to pay the same rent amount. The free market is what's fair and enables a system of rent price discovery, instead of being confined and oppressed under rent control. Now here, the Freedom Fest in Las Vegas and we'll discuss the conference more. Today I attended one panel discussion. It was called How the Government Created the Housing Crisis and what we can do to Fix it, And it really gave specific solutions to provide more housing. This includes things like stop mandating a minimum square area for parking spaces. Stop mandating such large lawns. Instead, people can share a public park and relax the requirements that have so many easements out of property. Well, all that stuff is zoning in its stifles development and it leads to higher housing prices. Now, I maintain that not all zoning is bad. I don't think that you want a housing development surrounded by factories with smokestacks. So it's about relaxing zoning in the right way and promoting the right policies, like the benefits of a yimby movement.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:08:27)) - - Yes, in my backyard. Removing off street parking mandates altogether and allowing more ADUs allow Single-Family homes on smaller lot sizes. And we've already seen some of that. We're seeing home builders do more of that. They're building single family homes closer together, smaller lot sizes. But a lot of the wrong strategies exist out there. And once people get the benefits, like the beneficiaries of these wrong strategies, I mean, they don't want to give them up. Like New York's rent stabilization program that gives rent breaks to wealthy New Yorkers that also have a pricey home out in the Hamptons. Well, that's not the right policy. That's not helping the people that need it most. And you know, when the wrong policies infiltrate a market, the reaction can be amazingly rapid. I mean, how rapid? Like, do you think you would see a construction project literally halt mid construction? Yeah. You actually can like construction cranes just stop swinging. In Saint Paul, Minnesota, you saw construction cranes stop mid-air mid construction.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:09:38)) - - When Saint Paul moved toward a rent control of no more than 3% annual rent increases. Well, that's a form of rent control. When that happens, building stops because the developer knows that people don't want to buy those units or invest in those units or rent those units. And I've got more to discuss on housing shortly, but let's bring in the very founder, host and producer of Freedom Fest here. He has been named as one of the top 20 living economists in the world. Doctor Mark Skosan and you will hear some background noise in these conference interviews. We are at a conference at times. We're in the exhibit hall now. Interestingly, here with Mark, I bring up with him how much I dislike these political labels that just divide the nation. I mean, don't you agree that it would be great if the nation were less divided? Yes, we all would. Well, we can do our part by avoiding saying words like red and blue and oh, you know, I can't stand those maps.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:10:44)) - - Then you see, I've mentioned this to you before. You see these maps in political season that show where the red states are and where the blue states are. I mean, how divisive and polarizing that is not unifying in the United States of America. The fact that this conference has a non divisive founder like Mark Skosan is what attracted me here. Sure enough, here you'll hear me tell him how much I appreciate this. This was prescient because the very next day after this interview that you're about to hear, that was the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. Hey, it's Keith Reinhold here. I'm at Freedom Fest with Freedom Fest host and founder Mark Scott. And thanks for having us here. Yeah. My pleasure, my pleasure. Thank you for coming. Well, I've got to tell you one reason that attracted me to this conference. I was concerned that it was going to be too politically partisan. And I respect you so much, because I know you have said that in most of all the books you've read, you've avoided these labels like liberal, conservative, left, right, red, blue, yes, progressive, conservative and all that.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:11:58)) - - So that's what I'd like hearing when we talk about this conference championing principles of freedom and liberty. What does an American really need to know about freedom and liberty that's under attack today?
Mark Skousen** ((00:12:09)) - - I think what we've tried to preach is the Adam Smith model, which you call the system of natural liberty. And what that meant was under the rule of law and justice and a robust competitive model. You've maximized the freedom of choice, freedom to choose your own work, your own business, how much salary you're going to charge or wages you're going to pay, whether you can hire or fire people. So within those rules, within those guidelines, you have maximum security. But in today's world, more and more everything, it's either being prohibited or mandated. So we're being squeezed from both sides. The idea of freedom of best to maximize freedom is for us to come together and find out what are the best solutions to improve our lives is the idea. So we talk philosophy, history, science and technology, healthy living, economics, politics.
Mark Skousen** ((00:13:05)) - - It's all part of the program here. But it's not just a political conference.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:13:08)) - - Part of this is lowering the guardrails and promoting free markets. The only thing that we've all seen happen in free markets is inflation, oftentimes ironically, created by some of those forces that put guardrails in place. So what does an investor there are a lot of investors here. Oh yeah. What does an investor need to know with regard to inflation today. How can the everyday person respond.
Mark Skousen** ((00:13:33)) - - So one thing is we have a whole section on financial freedom because without financial freedom you're limited in what you can do and your influence that you can have. So this is very important. We live in an era of permanent inflation. Since World War two we've had permanent inflation. We didn't used to, but now we do because we're off the gold standard. We've adopted Keynesian economics, which means deficit spending all the time. We have adopted the dollar rather than gold. So we've lost that discipline. The fed is the engine of inflation. And they even have a policy of a minimum of at least 2% inflation rate.
Mark Skousen** ((00:14:10)) - - We had a whole session. Actually Steve Forbes wasn't there, but Nathan Lewis is co-author of in the book inflation. We had a big session on what are the best inflation hedges. So we talk about gold and silver. The stock market, Bitcoin rallies, high bonds, real estate. We had all of those discussion. And that was the great thing about Freedom Fest is that you really do get answers and best solutions. At our conference, I attended that particular. Oh you did? Yeah.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:14:38)) - - From Freedom Fest.
Mark Skousen** ((00:14:39)) - - I've really.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:14:40)) - - Enjoyed this.
Mark Skousen** ((00:14:41)) - - So far. We have an exhibit hall.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:14:42)) - - Which happens to be right. Oh yeah, we have breakout sessions that attendees can go to for the sessions that particularly interest. There are then a big general session where I've enjoyed presentations from Robert Kiyosaki to Ice-T. What is the future potential for getting Fest attendees? What would you like to tell them about what this conference entails? What they can.
Mark Skousen** ((00:15:03)) - - Expect in the.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:15:03)) - - Bank that they can.
Mark Skousen** ((00:15:04)) - - Get? Well, one of the things is just the wonderful camaraderie that you feel, the buzz that you feel the meeting of like minded people who are all trying to seek best solutions rather than labels and attacking people.
Mark Skousen** ((00:15:18)) - - And, we have the presidential debate here, for example. Well, we have all the third parties come together libertarians, the Constitution Party, the Green Party. We have RFK coming. The two major parties decided not to come. So, so much for their belief in democracy. But the idea is there's a there's something for everybody here. You want to improve your lifestyle, you want to prove your financial situation. You want to have better clarity on what is the proper role of government. Read about this A conference for you. This is an annual event that we usually have in the summer in Las Vegas and then other cities, and it's only 3 or 4. You know, we live busy lives, so can we come together once a year to learn to network, to socialize and celebrate liberty? I think we can if we plan ahead. When we.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:16:06)) - - Drop these labels, we can get a clear download of sorts, remove filters.
Mark Skousen** ((00:16:11)) - - And think.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:16:12)) - - Clearly. And this is a largest gathering.
Mark Skousen** ((00:16:15)) - - Of.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:16:15)) - - Free minds. So for Mark Skelton I'm Keith Weigel. You heard Mark Skelton mentioned the presidential debate at Freedom Fest. I watched quite a bit of that. More on it later. Gray Investment coach narration is here in person with me at Freedom Fest. Coming up, he and I give you a download of some policy and real estate investing highlights that you can learn from. That's straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to get Rich education. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group Nmls 42056. They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your prequalification and chat with President Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge Lending Group. Com that's Ridge Lending group.com. And Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:17:28)) - - If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out, instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are. Text. Family to 66866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866.
T. Harv Eker** ((00:18:23)) - - This is the millionaire mind trick. You're listening to the powerful get Rich education with Keith Weingarten.
Speaker UU** ((00:18:29)) - - Don't quit your day dream.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:18:39)) - - Hey, we're here talking about Freedom Fest, and I'm doing that alongside gray investment coach. The race. Hey, welcome in the race. Hey, Keith.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:18:47)) - - We are here in real life at Freedom Fest in Las Vegas, Nevada. And what Freedom Fest does is it promotes and champions the ideals of freedom in the United States, and it includes a bunch of guest speakers that have made appearances here that you got to see in person, from Ice-T to Robert Kiyosaki to a bunch of presidential candidates as well, sometimes not championing principles of things like freedom and tolerance and liberty and tyranny. And I think anyone can agree to freedom on a this basis. But when you think it through and where the discussion really begins is, oh, well, if you have freedom, does that mean you should be free to do anything at all that you want? Probably not. And that's quite a discussion or tolerance. That's an ideal. That sounds good, but oh does that mean you should tolerate absolutely anything? No probably not. So that's where a lot of the interesting policy decisions and a lot of the interesting debates come in here in the race. And I attended some of these presentations together and other ones separately.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:19:53)) - - So we have some different perspectives on what we've learned here at Freedom Fest. Grace, why don't you tell us about some of the good takeaways that you had? I had a lot of good takeaways, Keith.
Mark Skousen** ((00:20:03)) - - This is not just about freedom in the United States. It's about freedom around the world. And you even interviewed and I believe we're playing that interview soon. If you haven't already played it yet, you interviewed probably the freest nation in the world. It's a brand new nation and it's called liberalism, like liberty, land libre land in Europe. And it touts itself as the freest nation in the world. So there have been all sorts of topics happening or talked about from business, finance, economics, real estate, crypto, bitcoin, gold to non-business and financial topics, which I actually found more interesting simply because.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:20:46)) - - Most of what I listen to and what.
Mark Skousen** ((00:20:48)) - - Is business finance econ. I wanted something a little bit different, especially as a father of two young boys. There were topics on gender and sexuality.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:21:01)) - - And.
Mark Skousen** ((00:21:02)) - - Vaccinations being the vaccinated versus unvaccinated. Robert F Kennedy was the keynote speaker at this conference, and he's a major presidential candidate.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:21:12)) - - RL Jr RFK.
Mark Skousen** ((00:21:14)) - - Jr. Even though he's not part of a major party, he's probably the most popular third party candidate over the last 30 years, so he's a candidate. There were lectures on healthcare.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:21:28)) - - And.
Mark Skousen** ((00:21:29)) - - How to be a better patient. And hold your doctor and hold the healthcare system accountable. The other aspect of this conference is there are some heavy hitters just walking around freely. Like I met Matt Ridley easily, I met Robert Kiyosaki, just he was dressed in very casual clothing to where people didn't even recognize them. And I did and told him how much I appreciated him. You know, you and the great podcast and huge inspiration for me. Yeah, people like Kiyosaki walking around freely, presidential candidates walking around freely, many third party candidates, not just RFK. He wasn't walking around as freely. He was in and out pretty quickly with really heavy security.
Mark Skousen** ((00:22:09)) - - But you had other third party candidates, like the Libertarian Party candidate and the Green Party candidate walking around freely. I ran into Vivek Ramaswamy, his campaign manager, while getting pizza. We are both standing in line getting pizza. We ended up having about almost a two hour lunch. One day talking finance business Vivek's policies his future. So overall this conference very educational, inside the classroom, very beneficial outside the classroom. We're going to bring some guests on the great podcast. We met at this conference, publicists who we met at this conference who represent good guests, some business development opportunities, maybe some not just good guests, but people who we would recommend their newsletters, maybe even outside of the real estate industry, people, contacts within the real estate industry. So it's not all about what you learn in the classroom. It's also about who you meet, the networking, the business development. Overall, just a really, really successful experience. There were a few.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:23:11)) - - Shows that snagged me as a guest while here as well.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:23:15)) - - I'm talking about American freedom here chiefly. But you did mention Lebanon, a startup nation between Croatia and Serbia. That's seven square kilometers in area. You know, I think there are a lot of people at a conference like this and just anywhere in society where if you ask them, well, hey, if you think you could run the nation better if you were starting it all over again, how would you start a nation from a clean slate and actually got an opportunity to do that? Well, I'll be interviewing the president of Lebanon here, where this country is trying to seek recognition from any nation. They want to start their own country, and they want to do freedom and really begin a country of their rights.
Mark Skousen** ((00:23:55)) - - And see is, is is.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:23:57)) - - Is is.
Mark Skousen** ((00:23:57)) - - Bitcoin I think not just crypto but it's bitcoin. And it's interesting because you hear a lot of times you don't like the country that you live in, go somewhere else. These people took it to a whole new level and said, well, we're just going to start our own country.
Mark Skousen** ((00:24:10)) - - And and it's about three square miles. So it's about the size of the area that I lived in. Tampa, not even Tampa, just almost the neighborhood that I live in, Tampa. So it's not a huge country, but it's interesting talking to them. And as you'll hear in the interview, hearing about what it's like to start a new country and there's a lot that you have to go, you know, there's a lot of fundraising if you want to call it that, that you have to do. It's it's a lot it's bigger than the business.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:24:37)) - - You'll learn more about that on an upcoming episode of the show with the nation of Berlin. I attended a presentation called A Forgotten Solution to the Housing Crunch. Most people think of real estate development is either single family homes or multifamily properties. This espoused the building of light touch density of 2 to 4 unit properties, and how that increases the density. But it maintains character. And they showed an awful lot of photos in the presentation where from a street, a four unit building can actually like a single family home when it has the right design and therefore you don't get this NIMBYism pushback.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:25:16)) - - I saw a number of smart design examples of that. And you know what this does? Will this help keep the cost of housing down in an area? What it allows for in a society is it allows the children who grew up in an area to afford the housing there without being priced out. Also called this multifamily missing middle 2 to 4 unit housing. You don't have the NIMBYism pushback that you do with multifamily housing. There are an awful lot of opinions here about people that want to avoid rent control, about how that's typically the bad policy. And many likened rent control to bombing American cities over time because landlords don't have an incentive to improve anything. So rent control is not a good solution to increasing the housing supply. And a lot of the discussion was how you get politicians to say no to rent control, sharing with them. Cato Institute studies on how the free market really makes for a higher housing supply, because that makes developers want to come into the market. And it was noted in one of the panel discussions about rent control and about providing more affordable housing.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:26:27)) - - But if there's a four unit building of owners of all four units of that building, how that's deemed as less threatening than if there's a four unit building of renters.
Mark Skousen** ((00:26:38)) - - So question for you, the housing panels that you attended were these people, were they private investors or they worked for private equity companies? I think maybe a documentary filmmaker who does real estate documentary, what was their background?
Keith Weinhold** ((00:26:50)) - - Think tanks and yes, a documentary filmmaker of a film called Shabbat Vacation. And I did not get to see the film about the perils and ills of rent control on Shabbat vacation. But I talked with one of the people that worked on the project and basically that movie. It does glorify the landlord that was brought up. And typically in popular culture, you don't glorify the landlord. I mean, the landlord is kind of the beleaguered party in this, and it was critical of rent control there. And so it's helping to spread an awareness of how that really doesn't help the housing supply. Quantity work quality over time. I attended another presentation.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:27:33)) - - It was called Homelessness California versus Texas and Homelessness. Of course, it's a multifaceted problem. There are a number of reasons that it occurs, but they really brought up that it often results from the loss of family connection a lot more often than what some people think. And it really brought to light that Houston has a lower proportion of homelessness in L.A. and San Francisco does. What are the reason this that that is the case. And that is because Houston has a lower proportion of homelessness, because it's a lower cost to build there, and Houston has way fewer zoning requirements, you see, almost like a hodgepodge of building across Houston. You have substantially less NIMBYism in Houston. You just have a culture there that doesn't push back on buildings. So those are really some of the key parallels between why the homelessness crisis is worse in California than it is in Texas. In most places, Austin actually has policies that are so agricultural to the rest of Texas, giving Austin a somewhat higher homelessness rate.
Mark Skousen** ((00:28:38)) - - Wow, that's a lot of real estate content that you got there.
Mark Skousen** ((00:28:42)) - - Anything else? Keith?
Keith Weinhold** ((00:28:44)) - - Another presentation I attended was called Permanent Rising Prices. What are the best inflation hedges? And, you know, for a while they didn't even put real estate up there as one of them. And I was almost foaming at the mouth getting ready to ask a question. But they did bring in real estate at the end. When it comes to inflation. Many of them brought up the fact that we have multi-trillion dollar deficits even when we're in good times. I had never thought of it that way before. If most people would look at the history of the world and what's happening with the nation while they're running multi-trillion dollar deficits, they probably think that they're trending toward poverty and austerity. But that's not the case. This is what's happening in good times. And politicians, they really don't run on a platform of reducing our debt. You notice that none of the politicians do that. Instead, you see politicians run on platforms like immigration or the housing shortage or abortion. But, you know, politicians, they don't run on a platform of reducing our debt.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:29:42)) - - And that's because they all see it as a problem that they didn't create, and they don't really want to work their way out of it either. So that's why it doesn't come up. Also, with the best inflation hedges, they showed the rank of asset performance for the last 200 years of five items stocks, bonds, treasury bills, gold and the dollar. And really it was coming down to two guys debating on whether stocks or gold were better. They both made their case either way. And they didn't bring in real estate until the end. But when they brought in real estate, they broad brushstroke and do what so many do, and they just looked at it as an asset class in what is its capital appreciation over time. Yeah. And you know, they didn't separate out income property as its own class like we would. But some of the panelists, they did not like real estate. They talked about how it's not liquid, about how you have to borrow funds, about how there's a maintenance burden and a repair burden with real estate, and you have tenants and management and some things like that.
Mark Skousen** ((00:30:40)) - - Fair, all fair.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:30:41)) - - All fair points. And one panelist brought up that gold has outperformed the gold mining stocks just historically over time. So those are some of the inflation hedges and some of the other issues with inflation that you don't think about very much as you have policy advocates and politicians addressing.
Mark Skousen** ((00:30:57)) - - Well, I'll say gold mining stocks and most traders will tell you traders by gold mining stocks, not investors. So gold mining stocks are meant to be held over the short term. They are not meant to be held over a long period of time like physical tangible gold is. So for people to say, oh yeah, gold outperforms gold stocks over a 30 year period. That's true. But most people are buying gold stocks Like gold mining, stocks are only holding over a short period of time.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:31:29)) - - Well, housing and inflation were such widespread themes here since it has been such a problem, much of it wrought by the pandemic. As we wind down here summarizing what we've experienced at our first Freedom Fest, for each of us, have any last thoughts with respect to housing and inflation since they were such overarching themes?
Mark Skousen** ((00:31:49)) - - Well, the common theme here at Freedom Fest was government got out of the way because if you let the free market work itself out, if you let people be, people work themselves out.
Mark Skousen** ((00:32:01)) - - But the onus on people to take personal responsibility, that in and of itself solves the inflation problem because you don't have government restrictions, government mandates, and And this was a major topic and that was the lockdowns of 2020. The mandatory vaccine mandates of 2021, those were all inflationary because when you have people fired from their jobs or dropping out, quitting their jobs because they didn't want to take this job, that means prices are higher and lower. Workforce means you have to pay the whoever is there higher wages. And that's what ended up happening. So it's not just about dollars and cents. It's something as simple as getting a job caused inflation. And ultimately when inflation goes up, of course that's going to affect rents, that's going to affect housing. There was a major savings rate, which I'm sure you covered in 2020, where people were saving money, being locked down at home. And once things started opening up, that money was spent and that created inflation. And people, as soon as they could get out of their house said, hey, I want to move to Florida, or I want to move to Texas or Utah or where we are here in Nevada.
Mark Skousen** ((00:33:10)) - - And that's why housing values exploded. So the inflation was caused by government. It wasn't just the government spending. It was actual psychological and physical things that the government or the policies of the government did that created an inflation. The government spending, the low Federal Reserve interest rates are just a piece of the pie, or they're just a couple of pieces to the pie. And so it was interesting to learn that all these other areas, all these other, like I said, policies that the government enacted. And that's what Robert F Kennedy Jr, RFK, talked about in his keynote speech. All of these policies affected the purchasing power of our dollar.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:33:53)) - - We have all had more dollars chasing fewer goods and services, one of those being housing itself. Hey, it's been great to meet up here in real life at Freedom Fest this year in a race. I appreciate you sharing your thoughts. Thank you Keith. I'm great. Yeah. Narration I enjoying freedom Fest here. Oh, there's such a wide variety of vendors and viewpoints all around this concept of free thinking, typically with getting government out of the way.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:34:29)) - - In fact, in the exhibit hall, which is right across from where the speaker discussions are, there are booths for gold, real estate, cryptocurrency stocks, a dating app for unvaccinated people, self-directed IRAs, a program for teaching capitalism to school children. There is even a book that espouses biblical capitalist virtues. And then elsewhere in the exhibit hall, atheist virtues. There was also a promoter of a currency called the Nevada Gold Back, and what it is is 1/1000 of an ounce of 24 karat gold. And it is physical like gold back. It looks sort of like a dollar bill, just much, much more in the exhibit hall. Now, one concept that I did not hear any criticism about was Trump tariffs. Tariffs are not free market. In fact, it's akin to erecting a trade wall. And maybe there is a session about it. But there are many sessions going on concurrently and I can't attend them all. And in other sessions I was asked to be a speaker and was interviewed. Like you heard.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:35:45)) - - Doctor Scholes had mentioned there was a presidential debate here. Now the two major party candidates didn't attend. I watched RFK Jr speak here, an independent candidate, and he was not in the presidential debate, though he spoke separately in the security for RFK Jr was formidable, even though he spoke the day before the Trump shooting. The presidential debate was among three different parties. It was Jill Stein at the Green Party, Randall Terry of the Constitution Party, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, who is a particularly bright, articulate guy, and most or all of those candidates, they agree that we should end the Federal Reserve. And the presidential debate, interestingly, was moderated by Congressman Thomas Massie, who has more formally proposed ending the fed outside of the presidential debate. I also attended a different session. It was a Bitcoin debate called Will the Bitcoin bubble ever burst? And you had two guys promoting and talking about the virtues of Bitcoin. And then you had two guys criticizing Bitcoin. And one of the two bitcoin critics was Whole Foods founder John Mackey.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:36:58)) - - So this really got interesting. Now I like a lot of the benefits of Bitcoin personally, but I must say in this particular debate the Bitcoin critics decide that Maggie was on. Oh they won this. The proponents best points were the people back in the day said electricity in the internet word feasible. They weren't going to last, but electricity and the internet won and Bitcoin will to the pro camp also espouses that Bitcoin is the first time we've had absolute digital scarcity. You cannot copy and paste bitcoin, but yeah, the critics did a better job. They said that Bitcoin is always made future promises, but it falls short like its awful acceptance rate as a currency. Still today its price levels are dreadfully volatile, just miserably volatile. You can't count on it then as a store of value. John Mackey said that Bitcoin produces no goods, no services and no cash flow. The Bitcoin critics also asked more than once this question how has Bitcoin made anyone's life simpler, easier or better? There really weren't any good answers to that question, and they even critiqued that with its fixed supply at 21 million will, then it cannot grow with the economy.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:38:21)) - - And then what this can do is create deflation and depression. And I would like to adhere myself that each Bitcoin is already divided into 100 million tiny pieces called satoshis. And it might be able to be divided smaller than that eventually. But yeah, the Bitcoin critics won. It is quite a win for bitcoin, in my opinion, that this nascent digital asset that was only worth a few pennies 15 years ago when it came out, I mean, it was something that only cryptographers and digital geeks understood. Well, today you've got presidents discussing bitcoin. So it's certainly had some success just in branding and name recognition alone. That is just about a wrap from Freedom Fest this year here in Las Vegas, there were record breaking temperatures outside in the Mojave Desert in the middle of summer. Inside, it was a celebration of ideals like life, liberty, prosperity, and of course, freedom. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Wendel. Don't quit your day, dream.
Speaker 6** ((00:39:35)) - - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.
Speaker 6** ((00:39:39)) - - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss the host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.
Keith Weinhold** ((00:40:03)) - - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.
-
Learn how garages and parking areas add value to property. Find out how to earn more rent for your garage space.
Adding a garage to a rental doesn’t fetch much more rent income. But you will rent your place faster and tenants stay longer.
To get more rent for a detached garage, rent it to an off-site tenant.
The future of parking and garages is positioned to be shaken by autonomous cars. Fewer people will need to own or park cars.
Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It’s November 20th - 23rd, 2024. Register here.
Brien Lundin joins us. He is the host of the world’s longest-running investment conference, the New Orleans Investment Conference. He’s also editor of Gold Newsletter.
He & I discuss inflation, interest rates, real estate, and gold.
Gold is up 20%+ annually. This is because foreign nations, like China, are beginning to prefer to own gold rather than US debt.
There’s a case for interest rates to go higher, another case for them to go lower.
Brien tells us why he believes the gold price will keep rising.
Increasingly, asset values are positively correlated—real estate, stocks, gold, crypto, oil, and even collectibles.
Personally, though I don’t see evidence that gold builds wealth, history shows that it’s a good place to store wealth.
Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It’s November 20th - 23rd, 2024. Register here.
Resources mentioned:
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Learn about garage real estate, how garages and parking add value to your property, and how to get more rent for the garage. Then we go from micro to macro. As we talk about the enduring value of a real asset that's minted, not printed, and another chance to meet me in person today and Get Rich Education.
Robert Syslo (00:00:27) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.
Robert Syslo (00:01:01) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.
Keith Weinhold (00:01:29) - Welcome to GRE! From Saint Augustine, Florida, to Saint Paul, Minnesota, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education as we cover a component of property that's a little talked about, garages and we're a real estate investing show. You learn about ways to optimize the rent income that a garage can produce for you, too. Now, if the home that you currently live in has a garage, it could be the entrance to the home that you use even more often than your own front door. That's how important and useful it's become. And understand that garages on homes, they didn't even exist until about 100 years ago, because that's when cars began to become popular. The emergence of the garage in American real estate is one reason for the downfall of the big front porch. You rarely see big porches on modern homes.
Keith Weinhold (00:02:26) - Interestingly, some of America's most successful companies began in garages, places where you have workbenches and can tinker around with things. Google and Nike were launched in garages, and it's also where people store lots of things, sometimes so many things that they can't even get their car in there anymore. In fact, the word garage comes from the French garage. Spell that g a r e r meaning to store. But yeah, when cars became more popular in the 1920s and 1930s, that's when you begin to see garages. And then as cars got larger, garages got larger. And by the 1960s, as families began to own not just one car but 2 or 3 cars, garages became larger again, and a three car garage is pretty common today in a single family home, though it's rarely that big in a property that you're going to rent out. Now, if you've got a single family home and it does not have a garage and you want to make a garage addition. Well, you can only expect to recoup 65 to 80% of what you've spent.
Keith Weinhold (00:03:40) - So it is a money loser. Then it really doesn't make sense to add one to a rental, perhaps only your primary residence, since you get the benefit of using it yourself that way. And if you add a garage to a rental, you know you just really can't get that much more in rent for it. It's usually not worth it, although the financials can look better for a carport addition instead. Now, if you've got a rental with the garage rather than without one, it actually can help you get your place rented out faster. But a tenants really not going to pay you even as much as 10% more in overall rent in most every case. Yet see, what happens is that a tenant, they tend to fill up the garage with stuff, and therefore they tend to stay longer than if there were no garage. A garage is one reason that single family rentals see longer tenant durations then apartments. Now, if your property though, if it's in a built up area and there's little on street parking, oh well then the addition of a garage that could have more of an impact on the value of your property than it would out in the suburbs.
Keith Weinhold (00:04:53) - The garage does not count toward the square footage of a property because that's considered unfinished space. And your prospective tenant? They might not know that fact about the square footage. So that's something for you to keep in mind when you're advertising a home with a garage for rent. Now, older houses, they're more likely to have a detached garage is its own separate standalone structure that's built near the house. But you would have to walk outdoors in order to get from the house to the detached garage. In fact, the home that I grew up in and that my parents still live in in Pennsylvania has a detached garage. Their home was built around the year 1915, so more than 100 years ago, and my parent's garage also didn't have an automatic garage door opener for most of my life. I remember the big yank up that you'd have to make on the heavy door. So when my mom was about to back out of the garage when she was going to take me somewhere, what I would do is I would stand outdoors until she backed out so that I could open and then close the door by hand and then get in the car.
Keith Weinhold (00:06:06) - Gotta get those legs under it and enjoy one deep squat there, Well, one reason that old houses have garages often detached from the rest of the home is for risk of gasoline explosion. That's because back 100 years ago, gas was stored in the garage because gas stations were yet to be invented. So you've got this trail of detached garages left behind in older neighborhoods, and some people still prefer a detached garage. Now there's a way for you to get more rent income if you're renting out a single family home with a detached garage, and this isn't always going to be feasible based on how the property's set up. But the way to do it is for you to get an off site tenant to rent your garage. Oftentimes, the renter of your single family home, you know, they just don't have as high of an income as someone does that lives in an upper crust neighborhood that might have a lot of toys to store their, be it a boat or an antique car, or even an RV, perhaps.
Keith Weinhold (00:07:13) - Well, that off site renter in the better neighborhood, you know they're going to pay you to store their cars or their other stuff in your detached garage In that case, your rental home and garage would have two separate tenants, and you will enjoy more overall rent income than if one tenant was renting both the home and the detached garage. So what you really want to learn is you do your research though, is what laws cover the renting of a garage or a storage space because they typically fall outside the jurisdiction of landlord and tenant laws. But you need to verify that depending on your state or your area. Sometimes running a garage is the equivalent of renting a warehouse space, and the rules can be different when it comes to payment issues or other problems. And when you realize that some garages can even have dirt floors, you can see how different it is than a living space. Now, even if you're thinking about renting your garage to an offsite tenant. Most of the time making garage upgrades, it's just really not worth it.
Keith Weinhold (00:08:19) - But note that I said most of the time. On the other hand, if you can make it marketable, maybe you need to do something smaller, like add an automatic garage door opener if it doesn't have one, and then you'll have to run the numbers to see if that is worth it. Now, one mistake that I made out of property, it wasn't that first ever seminal fourplex that I owned, but the second fourplex that I owned there in that building, each tenant had a small, simple one car attached garage, and then as each four plex unit went vacant, I went in and painted the inside the walls and ceiling of all four garages with a fresh coat of paint, and I would learn later that was not a good use of my time. It didn't help me get any more in rent. No tenant is really even going to stay longer for fresh garage paint, but frankly, I'm just not a handyman. I don't know how to fix anything. So one of the few ways that I knew how to add value, I thought was rolling a paintbrush over the inside of garage walls like I know how to paint and not much else replacing a faucet.
Keith Weinhold (00:09:29) - Whoa, that right there. We're getting into, like, intimidating territory. Okay for me. In any case, duplexes in fourplex, they can often have garages, especially newer ones. And I think I mentioned to you here on the show before that I once owned an eight plex. It was a little quirky. It had a small single attached garage that was kind of on the end of the building. So eight units and just a one car garage. And actually this is a good example because those tenants, they paid about $1,500 for their unit, so none of them could really swing it. None of them could afford to pay an extra $400 for the garage. So again, the way to solve that is rent to a more affluent off site tenant. That's what I did. And I got 400 bucks. Now, understand something. When you're driving a neighborhood or you're looking on Google Maps, at times it can look like a home has a two car garage because you're only looking at the widths of the garage door.
Keith Weinhold (00:10:29) - But that can really be a three car garage because on one side, the garage bay goes two cars deep, so you can't always tell how many cars a garage can hold just by looking at the width of the garage door. One reason that developers in Hoa's actually like garages that are too deep is that way. The driveway is more narrow. When driveways are more narrow, that means there's less asphalt and more green space in neighborhoods. Now, in some places, it doesn't matter too much if the garage is full of stuff and you have to park in the driveway, but in a cold, snowy place, it really helps to park cars inside the garage. So garages are typically more valuable to residents in areas that have real winters. In an apartment building, it can help to have assigned spaces for tenants. When I bought apartments, I've always loved it to my property manager to figure out the space assignments and rental property. Upgrading and resurfacing parking areas is another money loser. Now, we don't want to be slumlords, but the truth is repaving and re striping a parking lot that might look nice.
Keith Weinhold (00:11:44) - You might do that. but the reality is that it will get you practically zero extra rent. Not a good ROI. Well, that's a take on garage's past and present. What about the future of garages and parking areas when it comes to the future? And this harkens back to episode 13 of this show. Yes, that's when I discussed driverless cars, also known as autonomous cars. Back in January of 2015, nine and a half years ago. Well, when autonomous cars become popular, which many expect will still happen, it's likely that fewer people are going to own cars at all. They will just have a car subscription. The autonomous car will pick you up and drop you off, and more people will convert their garages into living space like another bedroom. If that does indeed eventually happen. But autonomous car adoption has hit roadblocks since episode 13 of this show back in 2015, and that's generally because autonomous cars keep having accidents. Although Waymo is perhaps the one company that's made more headway lately, you're seeing their autonomous taxis in use in some cities right now.
Keith Weinhold (00:13:03) - Currently, a car spends 95% of its life being parked, but garages, parking lots, and parking garages are all poised to be less useful when fewer people own a car. Instead, these autonomous cars are just going to drop you off, pick you up, and then constantly stay moving. Stay out on the road rather than park at all. EVs are a factor here to electric vehicles. They can be thousands of pounds heavier than the average gas powered vehicle, and experts out there are warning that the extra weight from EVs that could cause older parking garages to collapse unless steps are taken to buttress those structures. I mean, that's a problem. If geotechnical and structural engineers didn't design EVs on older parking garages decades and decades ago parking lots, they have definitely fallen out of favor among some, but they are still building lots of them. Critics say that to have to build minimum parking spaces on new projects, well, that hinders new housing construction, and also encourages people to drive rather than take public transit parking lot.
Keith Weinhold (00:14:18) - Critics. They also argue that parking lots and garages, they fill up precious urban real estate with these sort of soulless, concrete eyesores, making cities more sprawling and less convenient. And you tend to see this more in cities west of the Mississippi River. In the east, you have more cities on gridded street patterns that are more dense because they were laid out and developed before cars took over and sprawled so many cities, but with as many changes that autonomous vehicles could bring to the parking world and make things like car ownership less important and car parking less important, I sure would ask a lot of questions before I invested in any sort of parking related real estate. Today we've been talking about real estate in the micro so far today. Garages and parking surely will pivot to the macro as we discuss an asset that's minted not printed. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold, you're listening to episode 510 of get Rich education. Listen to this. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group Nmls 42056.
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Robert Kiyosaki (00:17:08) - This is our rich dad, poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith wine old and there is I respect Kate is a very strong, smart, bright young man.
Keith Weinhold (00:17:26) - It's terrific to welcome into the show a man with decades of investment analysis experience that we can learn from. He's the executive editor of Gold Newsletter, and you might know him as host of America's longest running investment conference, the famed New Orleans Investment Conference. Hey, we haven't shedded in a minute. Welcome in Brien Lundin.
Brien Lundin (00:17:48) - Right? To be able to keep it has been a while too long.
Keith Weinhold (00:17:51) - That's right. And now you and I each span the real asset world. I'm a real estate guy. You spend a lot of your work in teaching over there on the gold side. And we both intersect with the general economy. And, you know, Brian, I think of the general economy is having a number of abnormalities.
Keith Weinhold (00:18:11) - Is it always does, but actually many normality to I mean, I've commented that there's actually relative normalcy in the fed funds rate and even mortgage rate levels. If you look at it historically, also home price appreciation rates, in rent appreciation rates, they're all close to historic norms, although the aberrations are probably more interesting to talk about. What are your thoughts on the economy's general direction?
Brien Lundin (00:18:37) - Yeah, you know, it really is weird. We think about today's interest rates and how high they are. And throughout human history, the natural level of interest rates have hovered around 6%. That's kind of what it's always been for thousands of years. So what we went through over the last 16 years or so was a really abnormal period, and even going back a decade or so before that. So yeah, it looks seems like interest rates are at normal levels. What is at abnormal levels, however, is the level of debt that we have today. And and that's been created after over four decades of ever easier money, ever since Volcker killed off inflation in the 1970s and started lowering rates, we see that whenever there was a recession, the Federal Reserve had the same prescription every time it lowered interest rates, and then it would try to raise them back, but could never get past the midpoint of the previous range before another recession would come back, or the markets would throw some kind of a fit in.
Brien Lundin (00:19:40) - The fed would then start easing again. And if you look over time, if you plot or draw a line at the bottom of every one of those interest cutting cycles, see that those bottoms of the cycles get progressively lower and lower. Till 2008, they hit zero. And then they tried to normalize it got up to 2.5% on the Fed's funds fund rate, and then had to go right back to zero at Covid. So the lesson to me is that things might seem normal if you look at the grand sweep of history, but they're anything but normal right now, and the debt loads that we have are so high they preclude anything resembling a normal interest rate. And in fact, my contention is that interest rates have to be below the rate of inflation. In other words, the currency has to depreciate at a faster rate than you're paying interest on these debts, or the whole house of cards collapses. So that's actually, while not good for the fiscal health of the US or other developed economies, it's actually good for the kind of tangible assets, real assets we are talking about real estate, gold, silver, monetary metals, even commodities.
Brien Lundin (00:20:52) - And, you know, everything across the board as far as tangible assets.
Keith Weinhold (00:20:56) - Yeah, we look at the long term history of interest rates 5 to 6% if If you go back hundreds of years or even thousands of years is a historic norm. The fed funds rate is now at about 5.3%. But yeah, I think what you're talking about is we seem to have a decreasing tolerance for what are really normal rates. Nothing abnormal about the rate. All that was abnormal was the rate of increase. And you know, one thing that I think about with the economy, Brian, that maybe people don't talk about enough. Is this labor shortage that we have? I mean, it is difficult to do get anyone to do my landscaping. Last year I stayed in a hotel where when I checked in, there was no human being at the check in desk. It was automated checking. Then last month, I stayed at a hotel where there was a human at the front desk, but they told me that there was not going to be any housekeeping during my state.
Keith Weinhold (00:21:46) - So the reason that I bring this up is that a chronic labor shortage that spells entrenched upward pressure on inflation, because you have to offer higher wages to lure in workers and higher wages paid mean higher consumer prices, higher rents, more inflation and persistently high rates to combat that.
Brien Lundin (00:22:07) - Yeah, absolutely. And you bring up a whole nother factor that very few people consider as demographics. You know, the fertility rate in the US is below the replacement rate. It's about 1.7 now, and it would have to be like 2.1. And as they say, demographics is destiny. We're not the only ones by any means. Japan went over the demographic cliff long ago. We're following all the other developed nations are as well. And in 20 or 30 years the global population will be falling. That brings about a lot of other pressures and real estate. Obviously you have, you know, the baby boomers are going to be downsizing if they can find something to move into. Besides a retirement home, had a decent mortgage rate.
Brien Lundin (00:22:50) - You know, we have so much overhang in real estate that's sitting out there and locked up by the current interest rate. So yeah, it's an interesting dynamic we're in right now. And personally I think it's all just a result of the Federal Reserve and all these other monetary mavens whose PhDs I want to pull all these levers on the economy. And they have unintended consequences in every one of the policies that they undertake. And we're in one right now.
Keith Weinhold (00:23:20) - We've got both inflation and a scarce supply of property that just keeps floating property values higher despite higher mortgage rates. And one place that the high inflation is often reflected is in the price of gold. Gold is up more than 20% year over year. And one thing I want to ask you about here, with regard to gold and the fact that we have this debt that you brought up earlier, Brian, is a real problem. When we look outside the US, the world's biggest economy is by far China. China has been dumping US treasuries, meaning basically that they're no longer buying our US IOUs so they no longer want our debt.
Keith Weinhold (00:23:59) - And instead, China and other nations are increasingly parking it in gold. Now, is that one of the reasons that gold has surged?
Brien Lundin (00:24:07) - Yeah, it is the primary reason. Or, you know, one of the primary factors why gold has surged this year in particular. And it's a weird mix of buying. This year. We saw the gold price start taking off like the 1st of March. And it was for the first six weeks or so. It was literally a relentless rise, not a down day. Setting new price records every day. And it took us a while to try and figure out or to figure out where the buying was coming from. And as it turns out, it was the result of continued buying by central banks renewed buying to an even greater degree by the people's Bank of China, and also some domestic demand from China. And that's something we had never seen before. We'd never seen Chinese investors and savers buying gold on the way up in a price trend. They usually bought on a price downtrend trying to get a bargain, but now they were following the price up.
Brien Lundin (00:25:06) - So that contributed to everything and the factor that we had expected that did not come about in the first half of the year was a fed pivot. You know, if you look back in December, yeah, the markets are pricing in 5 or 6 fed rate cuts in 2024. And that kept getting postponed. And that was expected. I expected in most of the other analysts expected the beginning of fed rate cuts to really drive the price up higher, but it kept getting postponed. That big factor is still ahead of us. I think the markets are going to start pricing that in in a couple of months. And so what all that central bank buying and Chinese buying is done is while we were waiting for the fed to pivot in that big factor, it went ahead and added $300 to the gold price and got us into a new trading range so that when the fed pivot does hit, we're lifting off from a much higher level. So it's a good time, I think, to be an investor in gold and related assets.
Brien Lundin (00:26:07) - I think it's also a good time to be involved in real estate and a lot of other tangible and real assets, as.
Keith Weinhold (00:26:13) - Well as real estate investors we are interested in that interest rate direction. And, you know, if the US is continually finding themselves in a position where they're wondering, well, hey, if not China and others will, then who in the heck is going to buy our debt? And now you? I think the listener you can ask yourself in the same way, if you're trying to get your friends to give you a loan, How do you entice your friends to give you a loan? You would offer them a higher interest rate in order for them to give you a loan. So with that in mind, Brian, is that what the US has to do in order to entice foreign bondholders in the same way, meaning then debt rates would tend to be held high?
Brien Lundin (00:27:01) - Very interesting point there, Keith, because getting back what I was saying, how these PhD economists are pulling all the levers on the economy, the lever they're about to pull is to start lowering rates again, because they recognize these debt loads, they recognize the possibility of a recession, and that if there is a recession and tax receipts fall, then the debt load is going to accelerate even further.
Brien Lundin (00:27:26) - So they feel that policy right now is very restrictive. And they're going to start lowering rates at some point. They have to. But the debt loads being what they are, however you have on the other hand, the bondholders are, which you would hope would be the buyers of the Treasury securities, and they will look and see the potential economic slowdowns. They had the potential for higher inflation and start demanding higher returns on their yields. So there is a tension there. We saw that develop last October, November timeframe and a few months ago when we saw Treasury yields rise at the same time that the dollar index rose versus other currencies and gold was rising, which was a weird kind of strange bedfellows there that typically gold does not rise when interest rates are rising and the dollar is strengthening. But they were all going up together, and that happened a bit last fall as well. To my mind, that is a reflection of safe haven buying. You know, typically we think Treasury yields fall when they're safe haven buying because everybody's going into treasuries.
Brien Lundin (00:28:36) - To me that was reflective of safe haven buying because the markets were really concerned about the fiscal future for the US and other developed countries. So they were going to the safety of the dollar, the safety of gold and demanding higher yields on treasuries. That would be more commensurate with the kind of inflation rate that they saw ahead. But it's been a weird mix of buying a weird mix of economic developments, and I think it all argues toward big money getting more and more into gold because of the uncertainty that lies ahead, and the really the extraordinary nature of the current economic situation to the world we find ourselves in now.
Keith Weinhold (00:29:21) - I did not realize that there is less sensitivity to higher gold prices until I just learned that from you a few minutes ago. So that's really interesting about potential momentum in the future price of gold. And we talk about the future price of gold. We think of that through a supply and demand lens, much like we think about what's moving real estate prices today. Have we hit peak gold, meaning that there's less and less of it to pull out of the ground?
Brien Lundin (00:29:49) - All of the trends in that respect actually favor gold and that we have reached peak gold production as around 32,300 tonnes a year.
Brien Lundin (00:30:00) - Interestingly, a third of that level is being purchased now by China between the people's Bank of China and Chinese citizens. So a good bit of that is taken off. But I'm not a big proponent for the validity or the impact of supply and demand for gold, because it is monetary demand that really drives the price of gold. It has no utility, virtually no utility and industry. It is purely a monetary metal. So when people are concerned about the future purchasing power of the currency, they buy gold and they drive the price up, and that buying on the margin really sets the price of gold. And I think we're about to enter one of those periods where gold really plays catch up for long sweeps of time. You'll see the gold price doesn't do much until something happens. Things get bad to a certain degree where people really start to worry about their purchasing power, and then gold makes a huge catch up move. Really, in the early stages of that kind of a catch up ketchup move, I believe.
Brien Lundin (00:31:06) - I think we're entering a period that would be akin to the 1970s and the 2000, where the price of gold has historically gone up anywhere between five and a half and eight and a half times over during these kinds of secular bull markets. And I think we're in one of those periods right now.
Keith Weinhold (00:31:25) - Five and a half to eight x.
Brien Lundin (00:31:27) - Yeah. If you look at the fact that there's only been three bull markets in gold since 1971, when it actually became, you know, an investable asset or commodity and not money. So 1970 to 75 was a bull market of 76 to 1980 with a bull market. And really, 2000 to 2011 was another bull market run. And each of those instances, each of those three bull markets, gold went up from 25.6 to 8.2 times from the lows. And this market we're in now, the low is about $1,040. So if the price of gold goes up trading 5.6 and 8.2 times, you're talking about 6 to $8000 gold price at the end of this cycle, wherever and whenever that takes us.
Brien Lundin (00:32:17) - And of course, you know, we're up around 2300 and change right now. So that's a good move ahead. Lots of potential. And it's not just where the price of gold goes, but all the associated assets worth it, like mining stocks and the like are going to do, I think, very well over the next few years.
Keith Weinhold (00:32:36) - Yeah. People know gold is the classic inflation hedge. But to your point, it has a lot to do with catching a wave. If you think the real long term diminished purchasing power of the dollar is 3 or 4% over time. Well, you don't see gold go up gradually at 3 or 4% per year for several years. You tend to see it do little or nothing, and then it has this big catch up phase, like those periods of time that you talked about. When we talk about physically holding on to gold, you know, it's cool. It's one of those type of investments where if you do hold it yourself, there's no login or password to access your goal that is physical, intangible.
Keith Weinhold (00:33:10) - And you know, Brad, one thing that a lot of gold people often talk about is a positive attribute to holding gold is that it has zero counterparty risk when it's yours. No one can take it from you. But does it really have no counterparty risk? Because I think about if a person wants to hold physical gold, well, if they outsource it to a third party vault or a bank safe deposit box, then the counterparty risk is there. But if they hold it onto themselves and store it in their own home, which I don't know if that's a good idea, but if they choose to do so, well then the counterparty risk is the thief. So I think gold is a great way to store wealth, but is there really zero counterparty risk associated with gold?
Brien Lundin (00:33:48) - Well, from that standpoint, there's never a zero risk. There's never a zero risk. When you step out of your door in the morning, either, you know, there's always some risk. You can mitigate the risk. And it reminds me of of what I tell people when they're really new to the sector is there are two reasons to buy gold.
Brien Lundin (00:34:04) - One is as insurance and one is as an investment. And insurance is what you need to worry about right away because you're insuring against something you know is going to happen. If you feel like 3 to 5 years, the dollar's purchasing power, it's going to be much less than it is today. I think we can all agree in most likely is then by buying gold today, you lock in today's value of the dollar because gold will make that up, and perhaps even more so, it will protect you against that depreciation. So you can ensure your wealth by holding some physical metals. And I think that's the most important thing you can do, at least initially, is get silver and gold. Now, as far as storing it, a lot of people can store enough gold in their house to gain a good bit of insurance against whatever their wealth is. And by that, you know you will have to invest in a safe. Don't tell anybody about where it is and a good alarm system. And if you haven't and a location where you have a good police force, then you're talking about 20 minutes that somebody's going to get in your home before the police come and knocking, and hopefully they can't find the safe, much less get into it in that amount of time so you can do it in your house to some degree.
Brien Lundin (00:35:16) - You can store it elsewhere, but there are important considerations there. They're very respected storage facilities and the like. You don't want to store it in a bank because one of the things you're insuring against is a bank holiday, thanks to like you to store it there either, but you can find respected institutions to store it. I recommend people don't put all the eggs in one basket and store it with a number of institutions, or as many as they can practically do. But yeah, it is important to own the metals, you know. Otherwise you're going to lose from here. On the day that you decide not to buy gold and silver to protect your wealth from that day on, you're accepting a rate of purchasing power depreciation that we know is considerably more than what the government says it is, and is historically high to begin with.
Keith Weinhold (00:36:09) - I generally think it's a good idea to own at least a little gold if you have trepidation about buying gold. Think of it this way in a way you're not buying gold, You're transferring some of your prosperity over into gold, which has had lasting value for millennia, across cultures and across generations.
Keith Weinhold (00:36:28) - And for some reason, I think a lot of people my age and younger that they don't own any gold. I would imagine that 90% plus of people, I think the statistics are out there. 97% of Americans don't own any gold. And maybe you feel like you don't understand gold and you don't want to own what you don't understand. But you could purchase this a 10th of an ounce of gold for under $300. And you know, by buying just a little bit, you begin to get a vested interest in this stuff. So with that in mind, Brian, how much do you think one should allocate and in what form should they make their purchase?
Brien Lundin (00:37:02) - It's interesting. There have been studies for many years showing that the highest risk adjusted return you can get in a diversified portfolio with about 5% of your wealth, or your investing portfolio allocated to go to heaven. Those same studies done that are indicating more like 10% or more. It's to the point that you sleep well at night, whatever makes you comfortable.
Brien Lundin (00:37:27) - But you know all of those studies back test it and they look back and see how gold and a portfolio meshes with the six, the classic 6040 mix of stocks and bonds etc.. But what we've seen over the last 12, 14 years is that post the 2008 great financial crisis is that all of these asset classes have become more and more positively correlated because everything's dependent on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. So all of the correlations have started to trend toward one, where they all rise and fall together in unison. Because everything, again, is just depends on monetary policy and the flow of liquidity from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. So that fact alone argues for even a greater holding in gold, because all of that portends greater and greater inflation, greater monetary accommodation, and the kind of thing that gold insures against. So the way to look at gold as insurance is not quite like home insurance. You know, you buy home insurance, you pay the premium every year in case your house catches on fire.
Brien Lundin (00:38:38) - But you really don't expect your house to catch on fire. With gold. You're buying insurance. You're paying the premium, perhaps just once, and you're insuring against something that you know is going to happen, that the purchasing power of your dollars are going to depreciate. So if you have a significant cash balance in accounts, you might as well put it into precious metals and lock in the current rate before it gets the purchasing power of the dollar depreciates even further.
Keith Weinhold (00:39:06) - That is a good point with gold as money insurance from the standpoint that with your homeowner's insurance and your landlord's insurance policy, you need to pay a premium annually. You potentially only need to pay that once upfront when you purchase your gold, and there's typically a spot price differential to overcome. Well, Brian, you are the host of America's longest running investment conference, which is founded on championing American's right to own gold. The New Orleans Investment Conference. It really feels like there is a touch of prestige when you're there. I can speak to that personally because I've attended it at least three times in the past.
Keith Weinhold (00:39:47) - It's coming up in November. I hope to attend again this year. You've got some illustrious speakers there. Tell us about this year's New Orleans Investment Conference.
Brien Lundin (00:39:58) - Yeah, it is our 50th anniversary. You know, I think it's the oldest investment conference in the world today and longest running. And we do have that legacy, that prestige of being somewhat gold oriented. We're actually covering a good bit more real estate lately, but we really cover a lot of the macro picture macroeconomics. We have some of the leading thinkers come to our vet every year and a great audience as well. Very highly qualified, very successful investors. This year is up 50th. So we have another wonderful roster of speakers. We have Jim Grant coming, George Gammon, James Lavish, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Britt Johnson, Abby Gilbert, Adam Taggart, the list goes on and on. Rick Rule, Peter Boockvar, dozens and dozens of top minds. And, you know, we kind of alluded to it in this talk, but these are really strange and interesting and dangerous, extraordinary times that we're living through right now.
Brien Lundin (00:41:02) - And it is amazing to me, having been in the business for 9 to 40 years now, seeing these kinds of periods come and go. And it seems that when they do happen, we get this kind of underground media that arises, and people who really bring in losses come to the fore to comment on what's going on and provide really valuable insights. And after all the years I've been in this business, I know who really contributes value, who the best thinkers are, and I'm getting them all to come to New Orleans. As I have to say, I'm a big fan of all of our speakers. I think they are absolutely extraordinary, and we are so confident that you will find our event to be worth many times the cost of attending, that we have a money back guarantee. If you don't think it does, if you don't think it's worth many times what you paid for, we'll give you registration feedback. So it's very few events that can offer a guarantee like that. And I think you would agree with me that you have to be there to really experience it.
Brien Lundin (00:42:07) - And it really is just an extraordinary experience.
Keith Weinhold (00:42:11) - Yeah, I can't imagine anyone not getting a multiple on their investment with attending the conference. You know, one thing that you do really well there at the conference, Brian, besides just listening to all those speakers that you just mentioned, you also have panel format discussions where sometimes you can learn more when you're listening to a conversation than you can when you're listening to a presentation. You have both choices there. Then if you prefer you want to break, you can go across the hallway to where the exhibit hall is and do some learning and meeting people over there. And then you also have these breakout sessions where you go upstairs into small rooms and learn from presenters in just the niche that you think most interests you or that you want to learn more about. So there's really good variety there.
Brien Lundin (00:42:54) - Yeah, it's kind of a time tested format. It's different than most conferences you'll find out there, but it's worked well for us for 49 years, and our attendees seem to appreciate the unique format that we have and the ability to learn.
Brien Lundin (00:43:09) - And it really is information almost overload. There's so much of value from these speakers. If you are intellectually curious, if you are a serious investor, if you enjoy an intellectually stimulating environment in a destination location, this is really the place for you. And you know, I can go on over and over again for as long as we have time for and more to say talking about it. But the best advertising we do are people who word of mouth from people who have come. And I would encourage anyone who is considering coming to the New Orleans Investment Conference. Number one, this is our 50th anniversary. It's going to be a very special year. But number two, find somebody who's been before. Talk to them about it. And I think you'll get excited about attending this year.
Keith Weinhold (00:43:56) - Each year it is at an excellent location. It's at the New Orleans, Riverside Hilton and Bryan Terrace, those November dates for the event and then how one can attend.
Brien Lundin (00:44:07) - Yeah, it's November 20th to 23rd this year, so it's the week before us Thanksgiving week.
Brien Lundin (00:44:14) - So it's it doesn't interfere with that holiday. It's kind of a good little slot there. And people can learn more by going to one New Orleans conference.com. Very simply New Orleans conference.com.
Keith Weinhold (00:44:29) - All right. It's been great catching up on the state of the economy, real estate inflation, interest rates, gold. And thank you so much for putting on this terrific conference for the benefit of every interested investor. It's been great having you back on the show.
Brien Lundin (00:44:43) - Wonderful to talk to you again, Keith, as always.
Keith Weinhold (00:44:52) - Oh, yeah. Bright, inarticulate thoughts from Brian, as always, when he and I discussed those related factors of inflation and interest rates. I mean, this is such a germane discussion because, like he brought up, there seems to be this increasing propensity for all asset classes to rise or fall together. Like nearly every asset class is near an all time high right now. I'll need to research the incidence of this some more so that it's not just anecdotal, but the Fed's decisions. They seem to increasingly float up or knock down just about every investment class almost simultaneously.
Keith Weinhold (00:45:35) - Real estate stocks, gold, crypto commodities, collectible toys, even nearly everything. And when you're a real estate investor, you are already investing in commodities and metals, and you have direct ownership of those. Now, not so much precious metals in your real estate, but we're talking about items that are built into it, like aluminum and steel and copper. They probably exist in your properties. Well, their prices go into the replacement cost of your property, and they are a reflection of your real estate portfolio's overall value, too. Coming up here on future episodes of the show, it will be the inaugural appearance of the King of Commercial Real Estate here on the show. Also, there seems to be still a mainstream aversion to all debt types, and I suppose it finds me in the position of being real estate's debt proselytizing. Well, coming up on the show, I am going to ask and answer the question for you is any debt worth paying off? Which debts are good to pay down? Which stitch should be paid off, and which debt types do you want to keep, and which debt types do you actually want to get more of? What are the exact distinctions so that you know right where to draw that line on all the debt types that you hold on to.
Keith Weinhold (00:47:00) - So coming up here on the show, is any debt worth paying off? And I am pleased to tell you that if you would like to meet in person, yes, you're going to have a chance to do that at the special 50th anniversary of the New Orleans Investment Conference. Now, I'm not sure that meeting me in person really brings any benefit to you or the event, but yes, I am attending in person in New Orleans. I haven't been there since 2021 and I want to return. Brian London really knows how to put on an event. There is a lot of macroeconomic talk there and you will hear more about both that and gold than you will about real estate, although I expect plenty of real estate investing information there as usual. Again, it's November 20th to 23rd, four plus months away. And the registration link that you can use for this is in today's show notes. I will also get it into the next newsletter for you. Big thanks to the wise and wonderful Brien Lundin today. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.
Keith Weinhold (00:48:03) - Don't quit your daydream.
Speaker 5 (00:48:09) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.
Keith Weinhold (00:48:37) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich education.com.
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Asset prices are near all-time highs for almost everything: real estate, stocks, gold, bitcoin, and more. This is because in a wave of high inflation, investors chase yields.
Legendary investor Jim Rogers joins us.
Jim gives dire warnings about US debt levels.
Meet me and one of our Investment Coaches in-person at FreedomFest in Las Vegas, July 10th to 13th.
I put $1T into perspective. A trillion seconds ago was 31,700 years ago. That’s when neanderthals roamed the plains of Europe.
The dollar is a monopoly. The US government has no competition for their product, the dollar.
Jim Rogers believes that higher inflation and interest rates are here to stay.
He says: “Before this is over, interest rates in the US are going to go much, much higher.”
Resources mentioned:
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. I'll tell you about a chance to meet me in person. Then we're joined by a renowned and legendary investor for his sage like wisdom on how you should respond to record US debt levels for forecast the future direction of inflation and interest rates, plus a taste of the Singapore real estate market today and get rich education.
Robert Syslo (00:00:27) - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich Education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich Education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus has had its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps.
Robert Syslo (00:01:02) - Build wealth on the go with the Get Rich Education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.
Corey Coates (00:01:13) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold (00:01:29) - Welcome to GRE. From Sydney, Australia, to Sydney, Nova Scotia, Canada, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold and you're listening to Get Rich Education. Why are our values of almost every asset so high? Well, one reason is because we've had that high wave of inflation. When that happens, savvy investors, people just like you, they ensure that money must flow into assets. And that's because you seek a real return above and beyond inflation. If inflation were low, investors wouldn't have to chase yields this way. I've got more on asset values in a moment. But first, on today's guest, legendary investor Jim Rogers, who will hear from as a returning guest here soon in early 2019. So more than five years ago, he told us right here on the show that interest rates are going to go much, much, much higher over the next few decades and that is going to ruin a lot of people.
Keith Weinhold (00:02:32) - In fact, let's listen into that. Here it is. This is from get Rich education podcast episode 224, which you heard here in January 2019. This is Jim Rogers.
Jim Rogers (00:02:43) - And interest rates are going to go go much, much, much higher over the next few decades. And it's going to ruin a lot of people.
Keith Weinhold (00:02:50) - And then from there, he went on to tell us at that time, rising interest rates will set in for a long time. And this was back when the fed funds rate was just half of what it is today in mortgage rates were 4.5% back there in early 2019. So Jim Rogers made that firm prediction even before we knew about Covid. Then. And on that episode, we talked about getting your debt and locking it in. And then two years later in 2021, he was back here on the show to warn us to expect high inflation. Well, we sure got that too. And as you listen to Jim Rogers on today's episode, consider that, you know, he just often speaks with this sort of, I suppose, nonchalance that I think can make it easy to dismiss what he says.
Keith Weinhold (00:03:46) - But don't do that because countless people have benefited from his guidance for decades. Just like I hope that you do today in the real estate world. Now, agencies agree that the national year over year home price appreciation rate is 6%. That's today per the FHFA, the NAR and Case-Shiller 6% home price appreciation. What about rents? Today, Single-Family rents are up 5%. Nationally, multifamily rents up 2.7%. So why are Single-Family rents growing faster than multifamily rents? Well, it's partly because 2023 saw the biggest surge in new apartment supply since 1987. Yes, that's back when Madonna was the hottest music artist and Reagan met with Gorbachev. But there's less apartment construction this year, so expect a lot of that to get absorbed. Available inventory of Single-Family Rentals is going to stay more scarce than apartments for quite some time, but long term they both expect to be in really great shape. Residential rental demand is sustainable now. Back in 2022, available single family home inventory that was an astoundingly paltry one quarter of what was needed.
Keith Weinhold (00:05:20) - Well, now it's up to half. Some inventory has definitely been added. In fact, I was recently on television being asked about that. But this still means that demand handily exceeds supply. There's not nearly enough housing, especially on the single family end. And what about those perpetually just around the corner, always, constantly just around the corner, fed interest rate cuts. They keep getting delayed beyond a lot of people's expectations. Well, per the CME's Fed Watch tool, here is the chance given of when the first rate cut will occur by the end of July. 10% September 60th 4%. November 70th 7% December 90th 3%. You know, personally, I think the chances are lower than all of those currently inflation's at 3.3%. But here's the thing. Even when it hits the Fed's target of 2%, that doesn't mean that rates must be cut. All right. That's a reality that a lot of people seem to forget. Now here on the show, not after every quarter, but sometimes when a quarter ends, just like one did a week ago, we take a quick look at other asset class moves outside of real estate in order to get a relative perspective.
Keith Weinhold (00:06:43) - Some comparison here. If you're listening to this episode ten years from now, this is really going to help mark this era for you to is we do have many listeners that listen to every single episode. The 30 year mortgage rate is near 7%. Now, all these next figures are year to date through the first half of the year. So this is just the performance of the first half. Stocks have soared. The S&P is up 15%. One way that US stocks changed last quarter is the trades are now going to settle faster. Investors will see their purchases and sales finalized in just one day instead of two. Gold is up 13% to over 2300 bucks. Bitcoin up 44%, oil up 16% to $82. And again, that's performance for just the first half of this year. The world's three largest companies Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia have a combined value of over $9 trillion. Now, a company's total value is known as its market cap, and that is simply found by multiplying share price and shares outstanding. By comparison, all the gold in the world is worth 15 trillion.
Keith Weinhold (00:07:54) - Hey, if you're familiar with an event called Freedom Fest, I have some cool news for you. It's an annual conference that. How would I describe it? Well, I haven't attended it before, but there you can learn to expect more about free thinking and ideas about the size of government. Well, it starts in two days. It's July 10th to 13th in Las Vegas. You can meet one of Gre's investment coaches in person there and you can also meet me. Yes, we'll both be there. If you see us, be sure to say hi. We'd both like to meet you. Hashtag IRL in real life, some of the Freedom Fest speakers include our frequent great guest, Robert Kiyosaki, as well as some other guests that you've heard with me here on the show. Also, Steve Forbes, Iced Tea, the comedian Rob Schneider, Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, Whole Foods founder John Mackey and the congressman that wants to end the fed, Thomas Massie and more. They're all speaking. So yes, not a lot of notice, but if you're going, it's a way to meet me in real life, perhaps just in a casual way, in two days at Freedom Fest.
Keith Weinhold (00:09:08) - Well, it is public information that the net worth of this week's guest is $300 million. He's been influential for a long time. Let's talk to legendary investor Jim Rogers. This week's guest needs a little introduction. He is a legendary business and investing mogul of our time. He's a Yale educated, prolific author. He co-founded the Quantum Fund, and he even has his own commodities index and ETF. He's also a prolific traveler. He wrote a very well known book about his world travels, visiting some 116 nations. Hey, welcome back to gray. It's Jim Rogers.
Jim Rogers (00:09:51) - I'm delighted to be here. Okay, let's get rich. I need to get rich. I want to get rich.
Keith Weinhold (00:09:56) - Hey. Well, your guidance helps us do that. That's why you're here. And Jim is joining us remotely from his home nation city of Singapore today. And it's always interesting syncing up our times of day here. Jim, where to begin? You've been with us here. I think this is the fourth time you're here and about the last five years, and we're at a time when asset prices of seemingly everything are near their all time highs, maybe even in their inflation adjusted all time highs in some cases.
Keith Weinhold (00:10:25) - What are your thoughts with asset price levels?
Jim Rogers (00:10:29) - Keith. You it's very perceptive of you and insightful. Yes. This is one of the few times in world history that I know about where nearly everything is making new eyes. I think China is probably the only country. It's not making new eyes, but nearly everything else is. Now it's wonderful. It's great. A lot of people are having a lot of fun, but unfortunately, I've been around long enough to know that when things get this good, when everybody's having so much fun, we're getting closer to the end. I am not selling short or anything yet, but I see the signs that this is going to come to an end, as it always does, and it's going to be a mess. And the reason this is going to be a big mess this time. You remember what happened in 2008 because of too much debt each. That's 2009. The debt everywhere has skyrocketed. I mean, even China has a lot of debt now. China bailed us out before, but everybody has a lot of debt now.
Jim Rogers (00:11:31) - Maybe not North Korea, but everybody else does.
Keith Weinhold (00:11:34) - And that sure includes us. I mean, we have these asset prices at all time highs. Yet here we are, still the largest detonation in the history of the world in the United States now at 35 trillion. And we're spending dollars on others wars, something that we couldn't say when you and I talked a few years ago. The biggest line item of our national budget anymore is about $1 trillion in annual interest payments alone in. Jim, we're really on this course now where soon the US annual tax receipts won't even cover the interest payments on our debt, and we may have to borrow just to pay the interest. So where do we reach the breaking point here? With this world in debt led by the United States?
Jim Rogers (00:12:20) - You one makes some very good points. Unfortunately. I wish you didn't. I wish you couldn't make those points right. It's simple arithmetic. Just look at the numbers. And the numbers you recite are just what they admit, what they write.
Jim Rogers (00:12:34) - There's a lot of off balance sheet debt that they don't even talk about. I mean, the numbers, if you try to get out of pencil on a piece of paper, you will realize that the market can never pay this debt. Never. Countries that have gotten into this situation in the past have had big problems. Now it's a good time to be an old American. I don't have to worry about all this for too many years, but I have young children. Oh my gosh. The problem is that their country is going to face in their lifetime. I was staggering. You look back at previous countries that have done this kind of thing. In the 19 to 100 years ago, Britain was the richest, most powerful country in the world. 50 years later, it was bankrupt. IMF had to fly to London and pay their bills. It wasn't fun. It was terrible what Britain went through. But other countries have done the same thing. Maybe we don't like what I'm saying or what's happening, but just read the history and you will see how it winds up.
Jim Rogers (00:13:38) - I certainly don't like it, but I have to deal with facts. If I don't deal with facts, I'll go bankrupt. To which I don't want to do.
Keith Weinhold (00:13:48) - Yeah, sometimes let's laugh to keep from crying. Right? When you talk about how certain government figures are just what the government is willing to admit to, I think that's the right lens to look through. When you look at any government figures. Well, at least that's the part that they're willing to admit to. It's interesting that they're willing to admit to this is interesting that they're willing to admit to 9% inflation like we peaked at two years ago. But when you talk about the future and this huge debt load and children or grandchildren, could austerity be part of it, something that's very politically unpopular. But if we lived in an austere state, wouldn't that really be sort of like the downfall of the American empire at that point?
Jim Rogers (00:14:30) - Well, that's what happened to the British. As I said 100 years ago, they were the richest, most powerful country in the world.
Jim Rogers (00:14:36) - There was no number two. Then if two years later, completely bankrupt, I happened to be in England during part of that time and it was a mess. Wretched. So I don't like saying any of this, but I have to deal with the reality and the numbers you cite or what they admit. You know, the numbers are much worse. I don't know if anybody in Washington really knows. I don't even know if they care enough to check to see how bad things are. But every time a someone from Washington, a politician or a bureaucrat says something, they say, don't worry, everything's okay. We have a Janet Yellen who's a secretary of the Treasury. Are you or two ago said, don't worry, we have everything under control.
Keith Weinhold (00:15:20) - Reassuring isn't it? Not really.
Jim Rogers (00:15:22) - Oh my gosh. He's got a couple of fancy Ivy League degrees, but she still says, don't worry, it's okay. Well, I worry, I'm probably not as smart as she is, but I worry.
Keith Weinhold (00:15:36) - Well, it's interesting that you bring up the fact about the things that we don't know and these numbers, these debt levels and even the deficit gets so big, we're just throwing around this word trillion anymore.
Keith Weinhold (00:15:48) - For some perspective, I happen to know that 1,000,000,000,000 seconds is 31,700 years. In order to help put this into perspective, well, 31,700 years ago, that's just about as far back as when the planes of Europe were being roamed by Neanderthals. That's 1,000,000,000,000 seconds ago. And again, we are $35 trillion in debt, and we have a deficit of at least $1 trillion. The annual thing.
Jim Rogers (00:16:21) - I'm glad you're putting some perspective on this, but I don't need it. I know it's a staggering whatever number you want to look at, whether it's the one they report or the one that's they hide whatever it is, I know, because I can add and subtract. I know that America has a gigantic problem that is going to end up like every other country that's done this sort of thing. It's going to end up badly. America is going to lose its status, not this month. Don't worry. July is okay. But no, I can read, I can add, I can subtract. I know how it's going to wind up.
Jim Rogers (00:17:02) - It's not good for young Americans.
Keith Weinhold (00:17:06) - I mean, we think of the fall of the Roman Empire. You bring up the UK. The UK is still part of the G7, but they're no longer the one predominant power in the world. Jim, when I look at history and I think about sort of the powers that be and how they create and debase the currency, and how those problems percolate into so many parts of the society. I think if the United States is basically they have a monopoly on creating currency, and I just wonder if that's part of the problem. Lennar builds houses, but they have competition from KB homes. John Deere makes tractors and they have competition from New Holland. Heinz makes ketchup and they have competition from hunts. See, when there's competition, there's sort of this incentive to produce quality and provide others with value. But since the U.S. has no substantial competition to the dollar, I wonder if we can think of this as a de facto monopoly from its dilution of the purchasing power of the dollar.
Keith Weinhold (00:18:06) - Its quality is suffering because the dollar doesn't have any substantial competition. So I guess what I'm leading up to, what I'm getting at, is we think about currency creation as a de facto US monopoly. I mean, does the government have to be the exclusive money printer where all this just ends up in the debt column here?
Jim Rogers (00:18:24) - You raise some very good points. But back to the first main point. The main point is there is no way that America can ever pay these debts except by default, Which is one horrible way. Or by printing gigantic amounts of money, which is another horrible way. This is not the first time countries have done this. If you just go back and look, it is never ended well. Never ended well. Yes, England is still there, but nobody thinks about England the way they did 100 years ago. And nobody in England lives like they did 100 years ago, and many people left. I don't know what's going to happen to the US, except I know it's not going to end well because I can add and you can add and subtract.
Jim Rogers (00:19:15) - I wish we could subtract. There's nothing to subtract because the debt just keeps high and higher and higher. And the numbers are very simple. If you get out the amount of debt we have and see the possible income, it just doesn't work. If you have fifth grade education, fifth grade arithmetic, you know it doesn't work.
Keith Weinhold (00:19:39) - Jim, I don't know if you remember this, but the first time you were with us, it was January of 2019. That was more than five years ago. And at that time you said interest rates are going to go much, much, much higher. That was your direct quote, three matches. And you said that it's going to ruin a lot of people. And here we are with a lot of people ruined in the commercial real estate world and the apartment syndication world and so on. So if you continue to think there's going to be more currency creation to make it easier to pay back our debt, does that mean you believe that higher interest rates and higher inflation are going to be a persistent condition, say, just till the end of this decade, which is about another five years? What do you think about inflation and interest rates for these next five years?
Jim Rogers (00:20:27) - I know that in Washington they will print money.
Jim Rogers (00:20:31) - That's all they know. They want to keep their jobs. They don't care about you. I don't care about any of us. They care about keeping their job. And they will do whatever they have to to keep their job the easy way. Now, the proper way, of course, is to buckle up, buckle down, and start doing something about the rendus situation we were in. They don't care. They think they'll be gone by the time those times come, if they're ever coming, and they will say, but we're America. We cannot have problems like that. Well, that's what the British said, too. Once upon a time. And as I say, there was no number two to the British. They were that power. They were that much on top. It's not that I don't like saying. I don't like thinking it. I don't like living with it. But I do hope I can prepare so that I don't go down the tubes like some other people will. But I may just do the arithmetic.
Jim Rogers (00:21:32) - It's very simple. The numbers just cannot work. I didn't say the numbers do not work. I said they cannot work because the situation is that dire. They can hold it off for a while by printing money. Great. But then not for you and me. Certainly not for our children.
Keith Weinhold (00:21:51) - I think that's all they're going to keep doing. That's the most expedient way to do it, to keep printing any politician that proposes austerity. And you having soup for breakfast, lunch and dinner is not very likely to get re-elected. Does that mean in the next five years you foresee historically elevated interest rates and inflation, which is basically where we actually still are now?
Jim Rogers (00:22:14) - Well, of course I do. I mean, there's the market. The problem is right now the central banks still think they're in control, and they pretty much are. But there will come a time. And there always has in history when the market says, wait a minute, we know you're lying. We know this cannot work. And then when the market takes over and the market starts setting interest rates and other conditions, that's called disaster.
Jim Rogers (00:22:41) - That's a real, real serious problem. The market will know how bad things are, and the Treasury secretary can sit there and say all day long, don't worry, don't worry. We have it under control. And the Marquis will say, thanks, but we know better.
Keith Weinhold (00:22:59) - Well, we've got more coming up with Jim, including. He spent some 60 plus years abroad. I want to learn more about what he thinks with living and traveling so much about the United States. You're listening to get Rich education. Our guest is legendary investor Jim Rogers. When we come back, I'm your host, Keith White. Hope your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K.
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Speaker 5 (00:25:08) - This is The Real World Network's Kathy Petke, and you are listening to the always valuable get Rich education with Keith Reinhold.
Keith Weinhold (00:25:26) - Welcome back to get Rich. university. So we're talking with investing mogul legendary Jim Rogers.
Keith Weinhold (00:25:32) - He's joining us from Singapore today. He's joined us a few times over the past five years. And with what he said in what's coming, he's really been remarkably accurate. Sometimes he just gives a pretty casual delivery, but you really want to listen in to what he's saying. A lot of people have hung on his every word for decades here. And Jim, part of that is all your worldly experience. From so many of your travels and visiting over 100 nations. I've only visited about 35 so far myself. What do you think that we can learn about the United States from living and traveling abroad?
Jim Rogers (00:26:07) - First of all, I used to tell you I have made many mistakes in my life. I don't think I don't know how to get things wrong. I have many times. But yes, living abroad, I certainly even traveling abroad is an eye opening experience. It's a fabulous education. Rudyard Kipling, who won the Nobel Prize for literature, once had a line and a poem. The name of the poem was The English flag and the lion was.
Jim Rogers (00:26:36) - What can he know of England? Who only England knows. One is you'll know a lot about your own country if you know about the rest of the world. And you will you. If you go to country X and you see they eat different food or wear different clothes, it'll make you realize a lot about America. So my point is it's a fabulous education to see other places. I don't know if it's helped me. I in my view, it has helped me a lot to understand the world and to understand other people.
Keith Weinhold (00:27:11) - Now, in my international travels, which are a fraction of yours, a lot of times I get a reminder that life in the United States is still pretty clean and efficient. We have an abundance of potable water all the way to an amenity like fast Wi-Fi. And you know if someone abroad is traveling in the United States, they get to experience those things, and they probably don't even realize or understand that we're the greatest detonation in the history of the world. It's actually pretty difficult to know.
Jim Rogers (00:27:40) - There are signs that even those travelers will see. If you go to JFK airport, you will see the huge difference in JFK and say, the Japanese Narita Airport. You know your intuitive world when you visit some international airports outside of the US. But it's not just that America. Five star hotels do not compare with five star hotels in other countries. Listen, I don't like any of this because I have to live it. But the facts are. Yes. And you make a very good point that most people do not notice or does not affect them much at all if it affects them at all. But that just makes the eventual problem worse, because it hits us out of the blue and we don't know what happened. At least if we're worried, we can prepare. But you know, if you ride down the highway, most people think everything. It's okay. This is a nice interstate layout of potholes. They think everything is great. I hope that this all changes. I hope I'm wrong, but I have seen enough to dough that it's not going to end well.
Keith Weinhold (00:28:55) - Tell us about where you've lived for a long time. I mean, you come from the United States, but you've lived abroad for a long time. You've been there in Singapore for a while. Singapore, which is a place I haven't traveled to, has a reputation for being prosperous and enterprising in a really clean place. So will you tell us a little bit more about why Singapore is prosperous, including what its real estate markets like?
Jim Rogers (00:29:20) - Singapore is a tiny country. There are only 5 or 6 million people here. So yes, it has been a remarkable success story. It's probably been one of the greatest success stories in the world in the past 40 or 50 years. It still amazes me to see how efficient and how well everything works here. And they don't have yet the getting debt now, but they don't have the staggering debts that some other countries do. I mean, Japan, America. You look at some of the great success stories that come to people's minds. Japan did it by borrowing staggering amounts of money.
Jim Rogers (00:29:57) - Every day, the Bank of Japan borrows huge amounts of money it's going to have a problem to someday. I mean, it's just very simple. I don't want it to sound like some crazy fear monger, but I can read. And I know how this is always wound up. Now there's some very exciting and successful places in the world. And if you go to some parts of the United States, you say, oh my gosh, what a wonderful place. And it is. But underneath seems to me that there are problems developing. If you come to Singapore, you'll say, oh my gosh, and I'm not the only one who knows it all. The international surveys show that Singapore is one of the very top.
Keith Weinhold (00:30:42) - Now in Singapore, is it more of an owner society where most of the residents own the home they live in or like you find in a lot of urban areas? Is there a disproportionately high amount of renters there in Singapore?
Jim Rogers (00:30:55) - Over 80% of the people at Singapore own their own home.
Jim Rogers (00:31:00) - The guy who set out to build Singapore new and he especially because in his lifetime there had been a lot of riots in Asia. And he somehow knew that if people own their own home, they had a huge stake in the country, right? Had a reason to make sure, to try to make sure everything went well. So in this country, over 80% of the people own their own home. Yeah, he may have a mortgage, but still they own their own home. That's part of the reason for the success. I mean, for what it's worth, I'll also tell you he was a huge believer in education. He made sure that everybody spoke at least two languages. I mean, he knew what it took to be successful and he did it. Yeah.
Keith Weinhold (00:31:49) - Homeownership is generally good for communities like you touched on. You just have more of a stake in making sure your neighborhood stays quiet. Or you might show more interested enthusiasm in new clean mass transit coming into your area. You're more likely to be a voter when you own your home, and so on.
Keith Weinhold (00:32:06) - So sure, that gives the residents a more vested stake in their own community, which is good for everybody. Does Singapore have one problem that we have here with United States housing? Do you have any idea if there's a substantial housing shortage there in Singapore, like we're seeing in so many places?
Jim Rogers (00:32:21) - Do not shortage in the sense that you probably mean it? Yes. At times prices go high because there's not an abundance of housing and people keep moving to Singapore because it has been a successful place. So no, it's not like many places that we both know, but there are more immigrants coming here. The population is rising and they got a little somewhere. Yes, people are building homes and so it's not a gigantic problem at the moment. Can it be? Yes, of course it can be. And maybe it will be someday, but not at the moment. One thing I'll quickly say. Many societies, many countries, have a saying that families go from rags to rags and three generations. And there are many reasons for that.
Jim Rogers (00:33:11) - So social reasons. I will point out that Singapore is now on its fourth new government. So maybe if human wisdom is correct, maybe Singapore is going to have some problems in the future. You don't see them now. They might though.
Keith Weinhold (00:33:28) - Well, that's an interesting way to think about it. We've talked about problems in a few nations, Jim. I wonder, do you see there being a bright next up, incoming nation because you have this relative perspective from all your travels.
Jim Rogers (00:33:43) - There are places that are trying to change and do better. Yet, Nam is a perfect example. I mean, what a nightmare it was 40 or 50 years ago. Right now it's on the rise. South Korea is one of the most successful, prosperous nations in the world. And in 1970, North Korea was richer than South Korea. That, of course, is not true anymore. So countries can change and can develop. And it has worked. I'm interested in Uzbekistan now, in Central Asia. It was ruined by the communists.
Jim Rogers (00:34:20) - over 600 years ago. Uzbekistan conquered a lot of the world. I mean, then the communists came along and ruined it. But now they're changing again. So there's always somebody on the rise, and I'll be somebody on the decline. That's key, of course, is to be in the place where things are getting better, not getting worse.
Keith Weinhold (00:34:42) - With that in mind is we're about to wrap up here. Jim, you know, I like an actionable takeaway for the audience. And before I ask you that, if I can share with you what we do here in a nation and a world of expanding debt, Grey's take on debt here is the way that we can borrow large amounts prudently and get our own debt is to buy income producing real estate. If you borrow more, you can only control more and both inflation and tenants passively debase your mortgage debt for you, which enriches that borrower as long as they can control their cash flow. So really, that's one thing that we're doing to play things here in a world of inflation.
Keith Weinhold (00:35:25) - What are your thoughts with that? Or if you think that there's something else that the everyday person can really do to protect themselves in the future.
Jim Rogers (00:35:33) - It's pretty clear that there have been, if you understand that and if you manage it properly, oh my gosh, you can become unbelievably successful and unbelievably rich. The proper words are though, if you handle it properly. History also showed that many people have been ruined by debt, so I hope that everybody understands that debt is not as simple as it looks, but if you handle it properly, oh my gosh, the returns and the rewards are huge. And yes, there are many, many throughout history, throughout the world, many people that made gigantic fortunes from property, from real estate. So I hope you're doing it right. I hope all of your viewers are doing it right. It's not as easy as it looks, but it can lead to great success and great disaster. So yes. Don't stop. Make sure that everybody understands the potential problems and the potential rewards and they don't get overextended.
Jim Rogers (00:36:37) - Oh my gosh, you'll be very, very rich.
Keith Weinhold (00:36:40) - Yeah, that's a little bit like fire. If used inappropriately, could burn down your house. But if you know how to use fire, you can cook meals for the rest of your life. Do you have any last thoughts overall, anything you'd like to share? Anything we really want to know?
Jim Rogers (00:36:54) - I will tell you again that before this is over, interest rates in the US are going to go much, much higher. The debt is staggering. It is just whenever I look at the numbers and think about them, it shocks me, stuns me because I know it's going to lead to huge, huge, huge problems. But the people who are aware and understand what's happening and thrive. So this is not some kind of disaster for everybody, but some people will do extremely well. I hope that everybody you know does extremely well.
Keith Weinhold (00:37:31) - Well, Jim Rogers, it's been a pleasure hearing from you again. As always. Thanks so much for coming out of the show.
Jim Rogers (00:37:37) - My pleasure. I hope we can do it again sometime.
Keith Weinhold (00:37:45) - Oh yes. It's good to get the bigger picture. Sage like wisdom. I'm not sure if you caught it early in the interview, but Jim is not selling short. That means he's not betting that stocks are about to take a big fall. He expects even higher interest rates when it comes to America's swelling debt. Most agree that they're just going to keep inflating their way out of it, rather than default on it. I do, too, but consider that the US actually does have a history of defaulting, like in 1971 when we told the world that you can no longer redeem our debt, IOUs for your gold, that there was defaulting on a promise, we weren't going to give them the gold anymore. Singapore is still growing fast. In fact, it's averaged about 2% annual growth over the last decade. If you discard pandemic aberrations, the value of the median Singapore condo is $1.7 million, and it is 1000ft² in size. That sort of makes you think about New York City real estate.
Keith Weinhold (00:38:52) - And in fact, I had a trip planned to Singapore in February 2020. It was a cruise, but I didn't go. That part of the itinerary got cancelled. If you remember, Covid heated up in Southeast Asia early on, so I ended up spending more of that trip in India and Dubai. As it turned out, with our accelerated expansion of the supply of dollars that have been created since 2020. Here's one result today, more than 43% of Americans have been forced to cut back over the past year, and nearly 20% have had to borrow from family or friends in order to make ends meet. And you know when politicians brag about government funding. Just remember this. They're actually expecting you to give them credit for spending your money. That's what that means. And unfortunately, no one is immune from Congress's spending, which can be reckless at times. If you don't pay for something with taxes, then you pay for it with inflation. And that's exactly the type of issue that we expect to study on at Freedom Fest, where I might be fortunate enough to meet you in two days.
Keith Weinhold (00:40:10) - Big thanks to the iconic Jim Rogers today. His website is Jim rogers.com. Coming up on the show here in future episodes soon, we're going to discuss a few components that add value to your residential real estate that really don't get discussed very often. Garages and also the vacant land that your property sits on. Also, the King of Commercial real estate is set to make his Get Rich Education debut. We'll learn about commercial real estate turmoil and the commercial sectors that higher interest rates have blown up. Well, hey, do you have family or friends that are into investing or real estate? I love it when you hit the share button on your podcasting device or whatever platform you're listening on. Everything that we do here is free, and the share button really helps the show. And be sure to follow or subscribe to the get Rich educational podcast yourself if you haven't already. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Don't quit your daydream.
Speaker 6 (00:41:19) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice.
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Keith Weinhold (00:41:47) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich education.com.
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Explore influential quotes and maxims from the investing and business world.
This includes from: Warren Buffett, Mark Twain, Robert Kiyosaki, Albert Einstein, Dan Sullivan, Thomas Edison, Benjamin Franklin, Suze Orman, and yours truly, Keith Weinhold.
“Why not go out on a limb? That’s where the fruit is.” -Mark Twain
“Given a 10% chance of a 100x payoff, you should take that bet every time.” -Jeff Bezos
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” -Warren Buffett
“Don’t live below your means; expand your means.” -Rich Dad
“The wise young man or wage earner of today invests his money in real estate.” -Andrew Carnegie
“Savers are losers. Debtors are winners.” -Robert Kiyosaki
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Real estate and other investing involves people from the disappointing to the mesmerizing. People have contributed countless quotes, maxims and aphorisms on investing today. All recite and then we'll discuss dozens of influential ones and what you could learn from this timeless wisdom today on get Rich education.
Robert Syslo (00:00:29) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus has had its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.
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Corey Coates (00:01:14) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold (00:01:30) - Welcome to diary from Ellis Island, New York, to Ellensburg, Washington, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education for the 508th consecutive week. Happy July. It's the first day of the quarter, and it's now the second half of the year. So late last year when you got takeaways from our goals episode here, I hope that you're still applying them today. We're doing something different on this show. For most episodes. I divulge a lot of my best guidance. Some even quote that material. But why don't I acknowledge others great quotes maxims in aphorisms along with some of my own? And then I'll tell you what you can learn from them. So yes, today it's about axioms, adages, mantras and quotes, maxims and aphorisms. Some of these you've heard, others you probably haven't.
Keith Weinhold (00:02:28) - The first one is the only place you get money is from other people. Yeah. Isn't that so solidly true? You've never received any money in your life from yourself, unless you try to counterfeit it and give it to yourself. It's always been from other people. When you realize that the only place that you do get money is from others, you realize the value of relationships and connectivity. The next one comes from the brilliant entrepreneurial coach Dan Sullivan. You are 100% disciplined to your set of habits. Gosh, this is a terrific reminder about the importance of how you have to often uncomfortably apply something new in order to up your skill set up your game. If you keep getting distracted, well, then that's a habit, and then you'll soon become disciplined to the habit of distraction. The next two go together, and they're about market investing. Nobody is more bearish than a sold out bull. And the other is bears make headlines. Bulls make money. Really the lesson there is that they're both reminders that it's better to stay invested rather than on the sidelines.
Keith Weinhold (00:03:53) - The next two are related to each other as well. Albert Einstein said, strive not to be a person of success, but rather to be a person of value. And then similarly, a more modern day spin on that. Tony Hsieh, the late CEO of Zappos. He said, Chase the vision, not the money and the money will end up following you. And the lesson here is, well, we'd all like more money, but if you focus on the money first, well then it doesn't want to follow you. You need to provide value and build the vision first, and then the money will follow and you know, to me, it's kind of like getting the girl if you act too interested in her and you get too aggressive, it's a turnoff. But if you quietly demonstrate that you're a person of value, or subtly suggest somehow in a way that their life could be improved by having a relationship with you or being around you, then they're more likely to follow. And yes, I'm fully aware that this is a heterosexual male analogy, and I use it because that is what I am.
Keith Weinhold (00:04:58) - So if you're something else, I'm sure you can follow along with that. The next quote is from Susie Kasam. Doubt kills more dreams than failure ever will. Gosh, isn't this so on point? It's about overcoming the fear in just trying. And then if you know that you've lived a life of trying, you're going to have fewer regrets. Thomas Edison yes, the light bulb guy in the co-founder of General Electric, he said the value of an idea lies in the using of it. Oh, yeah, that's a great reminder that knowledge isn't really power. It's knowledge plus action that creates power because an idea that remains idle doesn't do anyone any good. Hey, we're just getting started talking about investing in real estate quotes today here on episode 508 of get Rich education. And, you know, remarkably, these maxims and catchphrases, they're usually just 1 or 2 sentences, but yet they are so often packed with the wisdom such that these takeaways and lessons are like your three favorite ones today. They can change the trajectory of your entire life.
Keith Weinhold (00:06:20) - The next quote is one that I have said carefully bought real estate has the best risk adjusted return in. The world. And I don't need to explain that because we talk about that in some form or another on the show many weeks. Albert Schweitzer said success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you're doing, you will be successful. Yeah, I'd say that one is mostly true. Just mostly, though, there's no attribution here. On this next one, you might have heard the aphorism money is a terrible master, but an excellent servant. Yeah. Now, I've heard that one for a long time, and it took me a while to figure out what it really meant. And here's my take on that. If you make money, the master will. Then you'll, like, do almost anything. You'll trade your time for money. You'll sell your time for dollars instead. If you invest passively and it creates leveraged equity and income streams, oh, then money serves you.
Keith Weinhold (00:07:28) - It's no longer the master. That's what that means to me here in a real estate investor context. And, you know, it really underscores the importance of making money work for you. And is a follow up to last week's show. Whose money are we talking about here? Whose is it? It's focusing on getting other people's money to work for you, not just your own. Now, the next one is a quote that I've said on the show before, quite a while ago, though. And come on now, what would an episode about quotes, maxims and aphorisms be without some contribution from Mark Twain? Here Twain said, why not go out on a limb? That's where the fruit is. that's just so, so good in business and in so many facets of your life, constantly playing it safe is the riskiest thing that you can actually do. Because a risk averse investor places a ceiling on his or her potential in a risk averse person imposes an upper limit on their very legacy. In fact, episode 275 of the get Rich education podcast is named Go Out on Limb precisely because of this Twain quote.
Keith Weinhold (00:08:45) - So listen to that episode if you want to hear a whole lot more about that. It's actually one of Twain's lesser known quotes, but perhaps his best one. The next one comes from famous value investor Benjamin Graham. He said the individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. Okay, so what's the difference there? A speculator takes big risks in hopes of making large quick gains. Conversely, an investor focuses on risk appropriate strategies to pursue longer term goals, which is really consistent with being a prudent, disciplined real estate investor. Presidential advisor Bernard Baruch contributed this to the investing world. Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars. yes. Tried to time the market. It might be tempting, but it rarely works because no one really knows when the market has reached its top or its bottom. All you can really hope to do is buy lower and sell higher. But you're never going to buy at the trough and sell at the peak.
Keith Weinhold (00:10:00) - And even buying lower and selling higher is harder to do than it sounds, even though everyone knows that's what they're supposed to do. Albert Einstein is back here, he said. Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it earns it. He who doesn't pays it. And as you've learned here on the show on previous episodes, compound interest. It does work arithmetically, but not in real life would apply to the stock market. Of course. My quote contribution to the investing world on this is compound interest is weak. Compound leverage is powerful. I broke that down just last week on the show, so I won't explain that again. Now, really, a central mantra in GR principle is don't live below your means, grow your means. But I must tell you, I can't really take credit for coining that particular one because from the rich dad world, the quote is don't live below your means, expand your means. But I did hear that from them first, and though it can't be certain, I think it was Sharon letter that coined that one.
Keith Weinhold (00:11:13) - A lot of people don't know this, but she was the original co-author of the book. Rich dad, Poor Dad with Robert Kiyosaki. And Sharon has been here on the show before, and if I have her back, I will ask her if she is the one that coined that. Don't live below your means. Expand. Your means. But yeah, I mean, what this quote really means is, in this one finite life that you have here on Earth, why in the world would you not only choose to live below your means, but actually take time and effort learning how to do a better job of living below your means when it just makes you miserable after a while, when instead you could use those same efforts to grow your means and you can only cut down so far. And there's an unlimited ceiling on the upside. And now there is one caveat here. I understand that if you're just getting on your feet, well, then living below your means might be a necessity for you in the short term.
Keith Weinhold (00:12:08) - And what's an example of living below your means? It's eating junk food because it's cheap and filling, expanding your means. That might be doing something like learning how to do a cost segregation to accelerate your depreciation. Write off on your 20 unit apartment building. But you know, even if you're in hardship, I still like live within your means more than the scarcity minded guidance of live below your means. Next is a terrific one, and it really reinforces the last quote a rich man digs for gold. A poor man is concerned with the cost of a shovel. Oh yeah, that's so good. And I don't know who to attribute that to. It's about growing your means and taking on and actually embracing calculated risks. Not every risk, calculated risk. And you can also live that regret free life this way. In fact, episode 91 of this show is called A Rich Man Digs for gold. So you can get more inspiration for that from that episode. Okay, this one comes from the commodities world where there are notoriously volatile prices.
Keith Weinhold (00:13:18) - How do you make a million? You start with 2 million. now, this next one is one that I don't really agree with that much. You really heard this a lot the last few years. It applies when you have a mortgage on a property, and that is the house is the liability and the debt is the asset. I know people are trying to be crafty. People kind of use this pithy quote when they're discussing how those that locked in at those artificially low mortgage rates years ago considered the debt so good that it's an asset. It's like, yeah, I know what you're saying. And I love good real estate debt and leverage and all that, of course. But really, for you, truly, then if the House is a liability and the debt is an asset like you're saying, then give away the house to someone else. If it's such a liability, and keep the debt to pay off yourself if it's really such an asset. A little humorous here. Next, Forbes magazine said, how do you make a million marry a millionaire? Or better yet, divorce one then more? Real estate ish is Jack Miller's quote how do you become a millionaire? Well, you borrow $1 million and you pay it off.
Keith Weinhold (00:14:31) - And I think we can all relate to that here at GRE. Better yet, borrow $1 million and don't pay it off yourself. Have tenants and inflation pay it down for you. And you know, inflation is getting to be a problem for any of these, like century old classic quotes that have the word millionaire in them. Because having a net worth of a million that actually used to mean you were wealthy, and now it just means you're not poor, but you might even be below middle class. Now, you probably heard of some of these next ones, but let's talk about what they mean. Warren Buffett said the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. And then Benjamin Franklin said an investment in knowledge pays the best interest. I mean, yeah, that's pretty on point stuff there when it comes to investing. Nothing will pay off more than educating yourself. So do some research before you jump in. And you've almost certainly heard this next one from Warren Buffett.
Speaker 4 (00:15:28) - You want to be greedy when others are fearful, and you want to be fearful when others are greedy.
Keith Weinhold (00:15:32) - That is, be prepared to invest in a down market and to get out in a soaring market. As per the philosophy of Warren Buffett, it's far too easy for investors to lose perspective when something big goes wrong. A lot of people panic and sell their investments. And looking at history. The markets recovered from the 2008 financial crisis. They recover from the dotcom crash. They even recover from the Great Depression, although it took a long time. So they're probably going to get through whatever comes next as well, if you really follow that through what Buffett said there. Well, then at a time like this now, I mean, you could be looking at shedding stocks as they continue to approach and break all time highs. Carlos Slim, hello said with a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present and thus a clear vision of the future. Sure. Okay, that quote like that probably didn't sound very snappy and it's really simple, but he's telling us that if you want to know the future, check on the past.
Keith Weinhold (00:16:39) - Not always, but often. It will tell you the future directory, or at least that trajectories range. And this is similar to how I often say take history over hunches, like when you're applying economics to real estate investing. Now this next guy has been a controversial figure, but George Soros said it's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. Okay, I think that quote means that too many investors become almost obsessed with being right, even when the gains are small, winning big, and cutting your losses when you're wrong. They are more important than being right. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. All right. Now, that's rather applicable to the high flying risk of, say, investing in startup companies. We'll see. Bezos himself, he took a lot of those bets, a 10% chance at a 100 X payoff. And that is exactly why he's one of the richest people in the world.
Keith Weinhold (00:17:49) - Now, if you haven't heard of John Bogle before, you should know who he is. He co-founded the Vanguard Group, and he's credited with popularizing the very concept of the index fund. I mean, Bogle transformed the entire investment management industry. John Bogle said, don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack. Okay? If it seems too hard to say, find the next Amazon. Well, John Bogle came up with the only sure way to get in on the action. By buying an index fund, investors can put a little bit of money into every stock, and that way they never miss out on the stock market's biggest winners. They're only going to have a small part. And what that means to a real estate investor is, say, rather than buying a single property in a really shabby neighborhood, that neighborhood will drag down your one property. So to apply boggles by the whole haystack quote. What you would do then is raise money to buy the entire block, or even the entire neighborhood and fix it up, therefore raising the values of all of the properties.
Keith Weinhold (00:18:55) - Back to Warren Buffett. He had this analogy about the high jump event from track and field. He said, I don't look to jump over seven foot bars. I look around for one foot bars that I can step over. Yeah. All right. I mean, investors often do make things too hard on themselves. The value stocks that Buffett prefers, they frequently outperform the market, making success easier. Supposedly sophisticated strategies like short selling. A lot of times they lose money in the long run. So profiting from those is more difficult. Now, you might have heard the quote, and it's from Philip Fisher. He said the stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything but the value of nothing. Yeah. I mean, that's really another testament to the fact that investing without an education and research that's ultimately going to lead to pretty regrettable investment decisions. Research is a lot more than just listening to the popular opinion out there, because people often just then invest on hype or momentum without understanding things like a company's fundamentals or what value they create for society, or being attentive to price to earnings ratios.
Keith Weinhold (00:20:08) - Even Robert Arnott said in investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable. You know, that's pretty on point at times. You have to step out of your comfort zone to realize any big gains. Know the boundaries of your comfort zone. Practice stepping out of it in small doses. As much as you need to know the market, you need to know yourself too. Can you handle staying in when everyone else is jumping out, or do you have the guts to get out during the biggest rally of the century? You've got to have the stomach to be contrarian and see it through. Robert Allen said. How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case. That's the end of what Robert G. Allen said. Yeah, though inflation could cut out the millionaires part. Yeah I mean point well taken. No one builds wealth through a savings account. Now a savings account might be the right place for your emergency fund. It has a role, but it's not a wealth builder.
Keith Weinhold (00:21:10) - I mean, since we left the gold standard back in 1971, so many dollars get printed most years that savers become losers. Which, hey, that does bring us to Robert Kiyosaki. He's been a guest on the show here with us for times now, one of our most frequent guests ever. Here he is. The risks at Port Arthur. And you probably know what I'm going to say. He is, he said. Savers or losers? Debtors or winners of something that your parents probably would never want to know that you subscribed to your grandparents, especially. Yes, he is one of the kings of iconoclastic finance quotes. And as you know, I've got some contributions to that realm myself. But what Kiyosaki is saying is if you save 100 K under a mattress and inflation is 5%, well, now after a year you've only got 95 K in purchasing power. So therefore get out of dollars and get them invested. Even better than if you can get debt tied to a cash flowing leveraged asset. In fact, episode 212 of this very show is named Savers are Losers.
Keith Weinhold (00:22:18) - Debtors are winners. So I go deep on that theme there. We've got more as we look at it and break down some of the great real estate investing quotes, maxims and aphorisms. They generally get more real estate ish as we go here, including ones that you haven't heard before and dropping, quote, bombs here that absolutely have to be enunciated and brought to light ahead. A group of Real Estate quotes episode. Hey, learn more about what we do here to get rich education comm get rich education.com. And do you have friends or family that are into investing or real estate? I love it when you hit the share button on your pod catching device or whatever platform you're listening on. Everything that we do here is free and the share button really helps the show. Be sure to follow or subscribe yourself if you haven't done that more. Straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.
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Speaker 5 (00:25:02) - This is Rich dad advisor Ken McElroy. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream.
Keith Weinhold (00:25:20) - Welcome back to Get Your Education. I'm your host, Keith Weiner. We're having some fun today, looking at and breaking down some of the great investing quotes, maxims, and aphorisms. Andrew Carnegie said, the wise young man or wage earner of today invests his money in real estate. Another one for Mark Twain here by land. They're not making it any more. You probably heard one or both of those. And yeah, Twain's time predated that of those islands that are built in Dubai. But Twain's point is still well taken. There is an inherent scarcity in land. Louis Glickman drove the point home about real estate investing when he simply said, the best investment on Earth is Earth. A Hebrew proverb goes as far as saying he is not a fool man who does not own a piece of land.
Keith Weinhold (00:26:18) - Wow, that's pretty profound right there. And if you're a female listener, yes, many of these timeless quotes from yesteryear harken back to a period when all of the landowners were men. President Franklin D Roosevelt, he has a real estate quote that you probably heard, but let's see what I think about it. Let's talk about it. Here it is. Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away, purchased with common sense, paid for in full and managed with reasonable care. It is about the safest investment in the world. That's from FDR. That's pretty good. I just don't know about the paid in full part because you lost your leverage. FDR, Johnny Isakson, a US senator, said, in the real estate business, you learn more about people and you learn more about community issues. You learn more about life. You learn more about the impact of government, probably more than any other profession that I know of. And that's good, really on point stuff there.
Keith Weinhold (00:27:23) - If you're a direct real estate investor like we are here, you really learn those things. If you're in, say, a REIT, well, you're not going to be exposed to that type of knowledge in experiences. Hazrat Ali Khan is a spiritualist and he said, some people look for a beautiful place, others make a place beautiful. Yeah, that's some mystical motivation for the house flipper or the value add real estate syndicator right there, Political economist John Stuart Mill, he said something you've probably heard before. Landlords grow rich in their sleep without working, risking or economizing. Oh, yes, you can have a real estate quotes episode without that classic one. Although rather than landlords growing rich in their sleep, the phrase real estate investors is likely more accurate. Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait. You've surely heard that one. You might not know that it was actor Will Rogers with that particular attribution, entrepreneur Marshall Field said buying real estate is not only the best way, the quickest way, the safest way, but the only way to become wealthy, billionaire John Paulson said.
Keith Weinhold (00:28:45) - I think buying a home is the best investment any individual can make. That's what Paulson said. let's give Paulson the benefit of the doubt here. Although Robert Kiyosaki famously said that a house is not an asset because an asset puts money in your pocket and your home takes money out of your pocket, well, a home is something that you get to live in, build family memories in, and you do get some leverage if you keep debt on your own home. So maybe that's more of what's behind John Paulson's maxim there. Notable entrepreneur Jesse Jones. He said I have always liked real estate, farmland, pasture land, timberland and city property. I have had experience with all of them. I guess I just naturally like the good Earth, which is the foundation of all our wealth. Business mogul Tamir Sapir said if you're not going to put your money in real estate, where else? Yeah, I guess that's a good question. Anthony hit real estate professional. He said to be successful in real estate, you must always inconsistently put your client's best interests first.
Keith Weinhold (00:30:00) - When you do, your personal needs will be realized beyond your greatest expectations. Yeah, I think he's talking about being a team player there. And if you're a real estate agent, it's about putting your client's needs over yours. If it's a landlord, perhaps then you're thinking about putting your tenants first and meeting their needs so that they stay in your property longer. Here's a quote that I've got to say I don't understand. It's from real estate mogul and shark tank shark Barbara Corcoran. She says a funny thing happens in real estate. When it comes back, it comes back like gangbusters. I don't really know what that means, and I don't know what a gangbuster is yet. I see that quote all over the place. I can't explain why that would be popular. I don't get it at all now, novelist Anthony Trollope said it is a comfortable feeling to know that you stand on your own ground. Land is about the only thing that can't fly away. Entrepreneur Armstrong Williams is here with this gem. Now one thing I tell everyone is to learn about real estate.
Keith Weinhold (00:31:12) - Repeat after me. Real estate provides the highest returns, the greatest values in the least risk. Yeah, that's a real motivator of a quote. As long as one knows what they're doing and buys, right? All of that could very well be true from Armstrong Williams. It was none other than John de Rockefeller that said the major fortunes in America have been made in land. Yeah, it's just really plain and simple there. John Jacob Astor, he got specific and more strategic here. This is Astor. He said, buy on the fringe and wait by land near a growing city. Buy real estate when other people want to sell and hold what you buy. I mean, yeah, that's pretty much an all timer right there from Astor. Winston Churchill said land monopoly is not only monopoly, it is by far the greatest of monopolies. It is a perpetual monopoly, and it is the mother of all other forms of monopoly. Yeah, interesting from Churchill. And there's a good chance that you haven't heard that one before.
Keith Weinhold (00:32:26) - Perhaps. So say, for example, if one owns real estate on all four corners of a busy street intersection, then that quote applies. It's like you've got a monopoly on a popular intersection. Russell Sage said. This real estate is an imperishable asset, ever increasing in value. It is the most solid security that human ingenuity has devised. It is the basis of all security and about the only indestructible security. That's from Russell Sage. And, you know, you know, something here is we've got lots of real estate specific quotes in this segment is that it is rare to nonexistent to see any negative quotes about real estate, about anyone saying anything bad about it. It's all positive stuff. Waxing eloquent about real estate. And there are a lot of reasons to do that. But not every real estate moment is great. Maybe this is all because nothing quotable is said when you find out that one of your tenants is a drug dealer. Well. Finance expert Susie Orman says this owning a home is a keystone of wealth, both financial affluence and emotional security.
Keith Weinhold (00:33:46) - Yeah, a lot like an earlier quote. A home is the only investment that you get the benefit of living in. Peter Lynch said. No, what you own and why you own it. I mean, that is short, sweet and it's just a really good reminder to you. Do you now own any properties that you would not buy again? And if you wouldn't buy it again, then should you consider selling it now? Not FDR, but Theodore Roosevelt. He said every person who invests. In well selected real estate in a growing section of a prosperous community, adopts the surest and safest method of becoming independent for real estate is the basis of wealth. That's Theodore Roosevelt. Yeah. He reiterates that you want to own most of your property in growing places, something that really hasn't changed over all this time. Coke Odyssey contributes to this. The house he looked at today and wanted to think about until tomorrow, maybe the same house someone looked at yesterday and will buy today. Oh, gosh, that's true.
Keith Weinhold (00:34:58) - I think that everyone has the story of the one that got away. Margaret Mitchell said the land is the only thing worth working for. Worth fighting for, worth dying for. Because it's the only thing that lasts. Yeah. Wow. Some real passion there from Margaret. Sir John Templeton said the four most dangerous words in investing are. It's different this time. Yeah. I think what Templeton is advising is to follow market trends in history. Don't speculate that this particular time will be any different. Warren Buffett said wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing. Yeah, that insight from Buffett. That's pretty applicable when you understand that you've got to get good in a niche and then get rich in that niche, meaning being narrow. Why diversification? That's likely better when you're just beginning and you don't know much, but then you want to get niche in your big earning years. And then perhaps when you're older, you get diversified once again because you're more interested in just protecting what you have.
Keith Weinhold (00:36:15) - Robert Kiyosaki said it's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for. Now there's something with tax efficiencies and more in that Kiyosaki quote. My friend Dave Zook, billionaire dollar syndicator and frequent guest on this show, he said, you can be conventional or you can be wealthy. Pick one. Oh yeah, I love that from Dave. Because if you do what everyone else does, you'll only get what everyone else got. And I've contributed some material here over 508 episodes of this show. Although I won't claim the eminence of some of the other luminaries of the past few centuries discussed today. I've been known to say these. You do care about what others think. That's your reputation. I've been known to say the scarcity mentality is abundant and the abundance mentality is scarce. And some say that in real estate, I was the first one to point out back in 2015 that real estate pays five ways. Another that I have is a critique of delayed gratification.
Keith Weinhold (00:37:31) - Now, some delayed gratification is okay early on in your life, but I've said too much delayed gratification becomes denied gratification. Here on Earth, you live just one life. Hey. And the other day, an entrepreneurial friend. I don't know. He seemed to think that I have the right life balance. I'm not sure if that's true or not, but here's what I told him. And I think he said this because he often sees me out to exercising and things. I told him I give my best to exercise. Business only gets left over time. That's because exercise is hard and making money is easy. Yeah, there it is. That's my take on that. And that's it for today. I hope that you got some learning, some perspective, a few laughs and that some thought was spurred inside your mind in order to give you at least one big, rich novel takeaway here. And it's probably best for you to refer back to this episode of quotes, maxims, and aphorisms. At times when you're feeling shaky about your investment decision making, or just other times of uncertainty.
Keith Weinhold (00:38:49) - Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold, and there's something else that I've been known to say. Don't quit your day. Drink.
Speaker 6 (00:39:00) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.
Keith Weinhold (00:39:28) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Compound interest is weak. What kind of iconoclastic heresy is that? Oh, I've got even more. Including. Don't get your money to work for you. This is a wealth building show. So why don't we discuss 401 days in IRAs here? It's precisely because they're not designed to build wealth. We'll get into that then. A way you can achieve higher property, cash and cash returns than you can with buy and hold real estate today and get rich education.
Robert Syslo (00:00:38) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki.
Robert Syslo (00:01:06) - Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.
Corey Coates (00:01:23) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold (00:01:39) - We're going to go from Saint Helena Island to Helena, Montana and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get Rich education. Compound interest is weak. Compound leverage is powerful. And with both available to most anyone, why don't you have more leverage in your financial life? That was a long time listener. You probably understand that if you're a newer listener, your reaction to that is like, wait, what? I mean, your inner self is telling you something like that challenges my existing longtime belief about how compound interest builds wealth. In fact, I will fight to protect this core belief. Even Albert Einstein purportedly called compound interest the eighth wonder of the world.
Keith Weinhold (00:02:36) - All right, well, let's break down compound interest until it looks as impotent as it is, as pathetic as it is, and as fallacious as compound interest is in the sense that it applies to your life as an investor. Now understand, I once thought the same limiting way that perhaps you once did, and that most others still do. When I was out of college and at my first job, I thought that there could be nothing better than getting my money to work for me with compound interest. Oh, and then maybe even the layer on top of that with the tax efficiencies of, say, a 401 K, 400 3B4 57 plan or an IRA. Then I took a real interest in this stuff, and I soon learned that I don't want any of those things because they don't build wealth. I don't want compound interest. I don't want to focus on getting my money to work for me. And I don't want any of those government sponsored retirement plans either. And that's why today I don't have any of them now, I remember when I had this one particular appointment, a financial planning appointment a few years ago, and I had it with what I'll call a conventional financial planning firm.
Keith Weinhold (00:03:56) - Maybe I remember it so well because it was an in-person meeting. It was in a tall office building that I went to and visited in downtown Anchorage, Alaska. And when I was in this money manager's office where basically what he was trying to do is win me as a new client. That's fine. That's his business model. Well, he had this big paper and cardboard sort of laminated charts thing resting on an easel, and this chart was prominently placed in his office so that I or anyone could see it. It showed the rate of return over time of. And I forget which index it plotted. It was either the Dow or the S&P, but no matter. It showed the return line going up and to the right for over 100 years. Your classic chart go up. It gave the impression to a prospective new client like me that, oh well, I had the opportunity to buy into this. And if I just invest my capital with this money manager and pay him fees for managing it for me now, I was at the point where I was starting to become better educated on these sorts of things compared to a layperson, for sure.
Keith Weinhold (00:05:06) - And I had been a real estate investor for a while at this point. Well, that physical chart in his office resting on an easel, it showed something like an 8 or 10% stock market return over time. Let's just be kind and call it 10% annually. And that's the first time in my life that I ever remember asking the question when I asked that money manager something like the chart shows a 10% market return, but what would my return be after inflation? Emotion taxes, your fees and volatility. Mic drop. You could hear a pin drop. I'll tell you what. That money manager almost froze. He didn't know what to say. I just remember, he began his reply, starting with talking about how inflation was low at the time. And yes, CPI inflation was low at that time, but he just didn't have a good answer for me. He was overwhelmed. He may have not ever had anyone ask him a question like that in his life. That sure is how he acted. And needless to say, I left his office that day without ever becoming one of his investors.
Keith Weinhold (00:06:17) - All right, so then let's dig into it. I've scratched the surface a little. What is the problem with, say, a 10% average annual return compounded over time? I mean, that sounds rather attractive when it's presented that way. Well, first, what do you think that the real rate of. Long term inflation is some make the case that it's still 15% today, even though the current CPI is 3 or 3.5%, and anyone that's looked at it feels that measure, the CPI is understated. So what do you think you want to use 6%. How about 6% as the long term true diminished purchasing power of the dollar? Okay then will your 10% stock market return -6% or you're already down to a 4% inflation adjusted return? Then there's the emotional component to buy and sell at exactly the wrong time, because no matter what people say they're going to do, most people want to sell when stocks are low because they're discouraged and they're just tired of taking their losses and they want to cut their loss. And then conversely, people want to buy when stocks rise because they're encouraged and they say they're a momentum investor and they experience FOMO if they're not in and riding the stocks up, well, what did you just do then? You just sold low and bought high.
Keith Weinhold (00:07:42) - How much does that emotional effect drag down your 4% inflation adjusted stock return that were already down to now? I mean, are you already at less than zero? Then there's taxes. Even in a 401 or IRA, you either pay the tax now or you pay the tax later. It's not tax free. How far below zero is your real return? Now that it's taxed? The IRS won't adjust your tax for inflation on a capital gain. Then tack on the investment fees, which can be 2% or higher. If you've got a professional money manager like the guy I met with in downtown Anchorage, or the fees can be really low if you are in an index fund. But how far below zero are you now? And that brings us to the last drag on compound interest in the stock market. We're not even done yet, remember? Okay, all we've done now is deduct out inflation, emotion, taxes and fees. What about adjusting it down further for volatility. Let's look at how deleterious volatility is to this floored compound.
Keith Weinhold (00:08:48) - Interest builds wealth thesis right here. Because you know on a lot of episodes we've just glossed over that. It just comes down to math. If you're up 10% one year and down 10% the next year, you're not back to even run the math and you'll see that you've lost 1%. That's just simply math. And now I'm going to get wonky here for a moment, and I'll use a more extreme example to demonstrate my volatility point for you. But I must get that way in order to debunk this myth about how compound interest builds wealth, or the getting your money to work for you builds wealth. Time spent making up lost returns is not the same as positively compounding your return. Any time you're looking at the annual average performance of an investment, it is vital to check how that performance has been calculated. And bear with me here for a minute, because this is substantive. Say your collection of stocks or whatever it is, just your overall portfolio value. It doesn't matter. Say it's up 50% one year, down 40% the next, then 50 up 40, down 50, up 40 down again.
Keith Weinhold (00:10:05) - All right. That right there was a 5% average annual return. But your average annual return. That is a lie because a 5% return through arithmetic performance. That sounds better than what really just happened to your money. So in a mutual fund prospectus, you might see that as a headline number, the 5% average annual return. But that's a lie in the small print. That's where you're more likely to see this CAGR, the compounded annual growth rate, and the CAGR. That's usually going to be worse than what the average annual number is. That headline number. And in our example, the CAGR is -5.1%. In this case that's the geometric figure. That's what you really want to look at not the arithmetic one. It looked like the market was up 5%, but your real return on your money was down 5.1%, a delta of 10.1% then. And the more volatile your returns are, the wider and wider this difference becomes. Now, if there were zero volatility, your average annual return, the arithmetic thing and the CAGR, the geometric thing, they would be the same and there wouldn't be any need to have this discussion.
Keith Weinhold (00:11:35) - This discussion is. Germane because volatility exists in the stock market and its related derivatives. So small differences over time compound and see really the problem is over the decades in your conventional retirement account, if you think that you're going to be quadrupling your money over time, but you only double your money over time, now you can see how this becomes a major problem. Come time for your retirement when it's too late. All right. Now, if you didn't follow that part because there were a few numbers flying around, just remember this time spent making up for lost returns is not the same as positively compounding your return inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility that just broke down any conventionally invested nest egg to less than nothing. This is why volatility is worse for investments than most people think. Well, we had someone write in to our general mailbox a while ago. And by the way, we like to hear from you. You can always communicate with us here at GR either through email or voice at get Rich education.
Keith Weinhold (00:12:52) - Com slash contact that's get rich education comment. I'd love to hear from you and really appreciate having you as a listener. Well, a listener wrote in on our inbox. They're asking why, if we're a wealth building show, why don't we talk about the benefits of 401 or IRAs? Well, it's squarely because those things don't create wealth. They aren't even designed to build wealth, but they create the illusion of doing so, partly due to the myth of compound interest that I just explained. But there's more outside of any employer match for IRAs and just generally investing cash in mutual funds or stocks or ETFs, they all have another gigantic problem. It could be a problem even bigger than the compound interest fallacy, which I just addressed. And that is all you're trying to do is get your money to work for you. Getting your money to work for you does not build wealth. Show me some evidence that it does. All right. Well, what's the problem here with these 41K and IRAs? I think you know, where I'm going is that you don't get any leverage.
Keith Weinhold (00:14:06) - Where is your leverage? Every single dollar that you lock away there means that you don't get the opportunity to ethically use three x or four x of what you've invested in OPM, other people's money, which you can build wealth off of. Where is your compound leverage with those conventional vehicles? It's gone. It never existed in the first place. Plus there's typically zero monthly cash flow. Plus you could have it invested where you don't legally have to pay any tax. Instead any tax, because retirement fund investors either pay tax today or pay tax later. Real estate can permanently mitigate income tax like you can get with real estate depreciation and absolutely zero capital gains tax on your real estate with the 1031 exchange. But let's not let the compound interest versus compound leverage case go to rest here just yet okay. How does then compound leverage build wealth instead? Well, the most available means for you to get access to leverage OPM is with real estate. Well, let's just look at what's going on today. Today, per the Fhfa, national home prices, they're up 6.6% year over year.
Keith Weinhold (00:15:26) - That's the latest figure that's not too different than historic norms. All right then. Well, if one year ago you had made a 20% down payment on a property that's 5 to 1 leverage, so you just take your 6.6% home price appreciation rate multiplied by five, and there's 33% for you. You went from a 6.6% return on the asset to a 33% return on your money, because you got the return on both your money and the bank's money. The majority is from the bank, OPM. So if you got a 33% return in year one, maybe it's 26% the next year and 21% the following year. It will go down over time as equity accumulates. And that's compound leverage. That's the wealth builder. And notice what else? Now that you know how destructive volatility is to returns, there is less volatility in real estate asset values. So now you're really on the path because you have a durable wealth builder. And then of course in real estate those high leverage returns are one of just. Five ways you can expect to be paid, but that one is the biggest leveraged appreciation.
Keith Weinhold (00:16:41) - That is the biggest return source of the five over time. And now you better understand why you don't want to set up your investor life to optimize getting your money to work for you. You don't want that. It's to get other people's money to work for you. And my gosh, mathematics makes compound interest in getting your money to work for you look amazing. But the real world proves that compound interest in getting your money to work for you is a farce, and it will keep you working at a job, maybe a soulless job until you're old. But the sheep believe it. You're listening to this show, so you're not a sheep. You're not among the masses. If you do what everyone else does, you'll only get what everyone else got. If you want wealth for yourself. All right, well, then, do you see that? You would have to think differently. And do you think that you would have to learn new things and then act differently than the masses? Well, yes, of course you do.
Keith Weinhold (00:17:41) - You can either go through life as a home run hitter or as a bunter. Most people are afraid to do anything other than learn how to be a bunter. And that's why the most popular personal finance platforms give the worst advice that limit you and keep you small. It's because they're talking to people with average or below average mindsets, not below average intelligence, but an audience of average or below average mindsets, which are the masses and they're just striving to get to a level of mediocrity, okay. They cater to financially irresponsible people that are just trying to get up to a mediocre level. And you know what? I was recently listening to one of these shows, I'll call it, a get rid of your debt and invest for compound interest and get your money to work for you shows. One caller called in. He and his wife got a $60,000 windfall from an heir. And they're wondering what they should do with the money. And they owned a home valued at 500 K, with 320 K left on the mortgage, which was a 3.25% interest.
Keith Weinhold (00:18:53) - And the guidance that the host had for this caller. I'm not kidding. Here was to use the 60 K to pay the 320 K mortgage down, so then they'd only owe 260 on the mortgage. I'm not kidding. That was the recommended course of action. And this is not an aberration. I've heard this same guidance with other callers on this conventional show. I mean, the opportunity cost of such a misguided move, what has he done when he pays down his mortgage? 60 K like that. He lost liquidity, he lost leverage. And it didn't even help with his cash flow. Because with a fixed amortizing loan, your monthly payment is the same the following month. Anyway, that 60 K, instead of being used to pay down a mortgage that could have been leveraged again by purchasing, say, a 250 to 300 K rental property. So my point is that conventional guidance does not build wealth in financial freedom. When you're actually young enough to enjoy it, you do things like learn how to get out of debt and then solely grind for decades, doing so, all while paying the opportunity cost of being leveraged less for the opportunity cost of targeting something like debt free, which is the wrong target rather than being financially free.
Keith Weinhold (00:20:18) - It's just like, if you want a wealth coach, well, then you don't hire and listen to guidance from a mediocrity coach. It's the same is if you want to learn how to skydive, then don't ask a basketball coach because you're going to die. We practice what we preach here at GRA. Now me what would I do if I had a paid off rental property or paid off home? Well, first, I've never had any residential rental property paid off in my life. Not one. Although I could, I'd recognize the opportunity cost of zero leverage. But just say, hypothetically, a paid off home fell in my lap. What's the next thing I do? I would go get the maximum loan against it, and then I'd have access to cash that I could invest in other properties. But what about these new loans that I'm taking out? What happens with them? I'm not concerned because both tenants and inflation pay it down passively, without my involvement at all, without my grinding for it at all, without me trading my time for dollars at all.
Keith Weinhold (00:21:27) - Well, I am really glad that we got into this here in the first segment of today's show. If you're near the show, it probably gave you a starting point for. Some new topics to search. Maybe you should start with learning the difference and reading more about average annual return versus compounded annual growth rate. It's really eye opening. And yes, you've heard me say on the show before that stock returns are dragged into negative territory with inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility. And what's new here today is that I took the volatility component and broke it all the way down for you. There is a real paradox out there in America and elsewhere. You know, people spend all this time learning about how work works, zero time learning about how money works. And yet money is the main reason that people go to work. So congratulations so far on educating yourself some more today. Suffice to say, compound interest does not build wealth. If you're focused on getting only your money to work for you, you are really missing out on leverage through OPM.
Keith Weinhold (00:22:38) - And the good news here is that you actually don't have to believe everything that you think. Even if you thought the same way for years or decades. Chances are you're by yourself when you're listening to me right now. So that way you can change your mind all on your own without anyone thinking that you're wishy washy. Is it iconoclastic? Yeah, sure it is. If you're going to live an outsized life, if you're going to have an outsized impact in this world and on others, then you don't want to get labeled as normal. I mean, me, myself. I want nothing to do with normal. You can learn more on topics like this with our Don't Quit Your Day Dream email letter that makes it visual for you. Get it free at get Rich education com slash letter I write every word of the letter myself again. Get it at get Rich education.com/letter or it's quicker while it's on your mind right now. Text gray to 66866 to get the letter. Text gray to 66866. More straight ahead on how to potentially achieve cash on cash returns of 20% plus with real estate today.
Keith Weinhold (00:23:58) - That's next. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone.
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Ken (00:25:48) - This is Rich dad advisor Ken McElroy. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream.
Keith Weinhold (00:26:06) - We're talking about how to profit more and faster than with buy and hold property with the BR real estate investing strategy will tell you more about a live virtual event tomorrow night, with more about it where you can attend from the comfort of your own home and have any of your questions answered in real time. And can is with me today to talk about it. Welcome in. Hello, Kate. Thank you. Thank you for the invitation to be.
Ken (00:26:32) - A part of the get Rich education podcast.
Keith Weinhold (00:26:34) - Oh, we're honored to have you. Tell us a little more about yourself. First, you're Memphis based and you're part of a real estate family. Your wife is a realtor.
Keith Weinhold (00:26:44) - Yes, that is true. I have been in.
Ken (00:26:46) - The real estate industry in Memphis, Tennessee since 1992. I believe I was born to be in real estate. If real estate's in my DNA. If you cut me open little houses, duplexes, commercial buildings and multifamily apartments will drip out. I am pure real estate.
Keith Weinhold (00:27:05) - And you definitely came up in the right place for that. For us major metros, you're in perhaps the best cap rate market. Now. A lot of people are familiar with fix and flip real estate, maybe something that they've seen on HGTV where you buy low, you fix it up and you sell it for more. In fact, a lot of people think that's what real estate investing means. And others, they think of real estate investing more passively by identifying a good property that's already fixed up for you with a tenant in it, and ready property management. That's sort of the turnkey way. Tell us more about the BR, where I think of it as using elements of both the fix and flip world and the buy and hold world, putting them together to produce high returns and even infinite returns.
Ken (00:27:54) - That is correct. So what we're doing and what we offer, it's a hybrid, turnkey and BR, we call it BR key a nice. So basically that acronym as you know it stands for buy, renovate, rent, refinance and repeat. And we've added the key to it because we do all of the turnkey worked for our investor clients. We do all of the heavy lifting. So we turn BR into a passive investment where we find properties through our sourcing, we vet the properties and then the properties are offered to investors in as is condition. We provide a desktop appraisal which provides a future estimated after repair value after the property has been renovated. We seek out appraisers who are certified, who are licensed in the areas in the markets that we provide properties in, so that we're not just shooting at the door on a future value, basing the values on what Trulia says or Zillow or Redfin and what have you. So it's a real certified value from a licensed appraiser. Then we have licensed contractors to provide the scope of work and an estimate on how much the renovations are going to cost.
Ken (00:29:24) - And then we do we have a relationship with an in-house property manager. The property manager markets the property, leases the property out, and our target market is partially section A, government subsidized tenants, because we found that in the Memphis, Tennessee area is that section eight pays more than market rate in most instances. And I like to say that section eight rent payments, the recession proof, they're Covid proof, they're pandemic proof. I have not received a call yet. And section eight says, hey, we could not get your section eight payment out because of Joe Biden not being able to sign the check, or he didn't work last week, or Donald Trump could not sign the check or what have you. But time and time again, those section eight payments, even during the pandemic, they always showed up at the beginning of the month without fail.
Keith Weinhold (00:30:25) - I have rented to section eight tenants myself, and I can attest to that. That check just keeps coming in. You have to have a case manager come in and take a look at the property.
Keith Weinhold (00:30:38) - Prior to that section eight tenant being placed. Section eight a government subsidized housing program for those that qualify. But now that we've talked about the tenant, some what which is the rent are if we look back at the first are in the borough that is the rehab. You could also call that first are renovation. And really what you're doing there is you're eliminating friction for a lot of people because one thing that turns. People away from the Bir or concerns them about the BR. Is that first r the rehab because they find it daunting or intimidating to manage contractors? A lot of people don't want to have to manage contractors, and those that do, they don't want to do it again. But the thing is, is that you formed a team of contractors, property managers, project managers to manage those contractors and lenders to assist with that entire BR key process, making it pretty hands off for the investor.
Ken (00:31:37) - That's absolutely correct. So we have the relationships with contractors your locally that we've vetted that have proven themselves.
Ken (00:31:46) - They're true blue and these contractors have withstood the test of time. We develop relationships with electricians, plumbers, heating and air conditioning guys, roofers, painters, flooring experts, guys that can do kitchen cabinets, countertops, everything from the router to the tuner. And we also have excellent relationships that we've developed not only with the big boxes, Home Depots, Lowe's, but there are actually many locally owned mom and pop family owned supply houses that we are able to get better prices on some items versus the big boxes. So if those savings are passed on to the investor clients that our project managers and contractors are renovating those properties for.
Keith Weinhold (00:32:41) - I want to talk more about how that's actually going the actual track record with that team. But before we do, if we talk bigger picture, let's look at some real numbers on an example property so that one can understand the overall process. On why BR is attractive to investors, and why they can put substantially less money into the deal than they can with what we would call a deal that's already completely done for you.
Keith Weinhold (00:33:08) - Turnkey.
Ken (00:33:09) - Yes, and I like to use a $100,000. It's a nice round number, right.
Keith Weinhold (00:33:16) - Inflation is basically it, but you can still find some.
Ken (00:33:19) - Yes. So an example said hypothetically, if we had a vetted property that was available to be purchased by an investor client, and that appraised value after repairs is estimated to be $100,000, we simply take 75% of that after repair value of $100,000, and we arrive at 75,000. So we work in reverse, in a sense. And if the contractor has estimated that the renovations, labor and material cost is going to be $25,000, 75,000, 75% of the 100,000, -$25,000 in renovation expenses that would leave $50,000. So the actual purchase price of the property would be $50,000 plus $25,000 in renovations. So the investors approximate all in is $75,000. That doesn't take into consideration title company fees, homeowners insurance. We encourage all of the investor clients to get a six months builder's risk policy from one of our sources that we use here locally, but of course, all of the investor clients are free to use or choose whomever they'd like to.
Ken (00:34:53) - So the property is purchased for 50,000. The renovations, which are high quality, are done for 25,000. So now the investor is all in for $75,000. Now we're at that second stage, and many times the renovations are completed before the property is rented. So though that second and third are kind of interchangeable, sometimes we the property's refinanced before it's rented, sometimes it's rented before it's refinance. So in a perfect world, the property has been rented to a client. So if the client's all in for $75,000 and we have what we created, our own 1% rule of thumb. So if the investor is all in for 75,000 and the numbers are still based on renting it for maybe 1% of the value. So we find that our rent versus price return is more than 1%. So in many cases we blow that 1% out of the water. We're talking about the.
Keith Weinhold (00:36:01) - Monthly rent being 1% or greater of the overall value or purchase. Price of the property.
Ken (00:36:06) - Yes, sir. That's true. That's correct. So after the property is rented for, let's say, $1,000 per month.
Ken (00:36:15) - Now it's time to get the property appraised. We do have lending partners that are very experienced with investment refinancing, whether it's conventional or whether it's DSC or refinancing. So now the appraiser comes out to the property after the investor client has made loan application. The investors appraiser comes out and voila, the property is totally renovated. It's rented out. The appraiser appraises the property for $100,000 plus or minus. It may appraise for 95, it may appraised for one T, and so on, so forth. So what happens with the investment refinancing the loan to value or LTV is usually 75%. It's not typical for the lender to refinance at 80% or 85% of the refinance. But with investment financing, refinancing nowadays is typically 75%, so the praise is for 100,000. The lender lends 75% of the 100,000, which is 75,000 on the refinance. So now the investor who has paid cash or possibly obtained a hard money loan or private financing in order to purchase the property, their coffers are replenished with it. 75,000 were either the hard money or the private.
Ken (00:37:42) - Long is paid off, and the investor now has a property that they've refinanced for 75,000. That's worth 100,000. But the key is now they've refinanced and they're at that final, or now they're able to repeat the process, rinse and repeat, re-up whatever you want that are to me. But it basically means you can reuse that $75,000 again to purchase your second property. Third property, you're able to scale quickly or pay off the hard money lender. And the hard money lender says, hey, I don't need this $75,000. Do you own it again to buy property number two? We're property number three. And it just goes on. And I'd like that word that to use key efficient.
Keith Weinhold (00:38:28) - Right. Because in at least one of the scenarios you described there, you would have no money left in the deal and 25% equity in the property.
Ken (00:38:37) - That is correct because even though the investor is all in for 75,000, that new roof, the new windows, the new luxury vinyl plank flooring, the new HVAC system and so on, so forth.
Ken (00:38:53) - Those improvements cause to happen is called force appreciation. It's worth more than $75,000 because of all of the improvements that have been made to $25,000 to new light fixtures, the pretty paint color, the new mailbox, the landscaping. So we found that many of the houses that we offer, they once were the ugly ducklings of the neighborhood. Now they're the beautiful swans of the neighborhood, and they're the homes and houses that people flock to that they prefer to living.
Keith Weinhold (00:39:30) - Yeah. So we're talking about some of those rehabs you might LVP the floor do a kitchen fluff up. By that I mean maybe you're saving and painting the cabinets, but replacing the countertops, new light fixtures, perhaps keeping bath tile in place, but glazing it and then bringing everything to code?
Ken (00:39:47) - Yes, sir. That's absolutely correct. And we do have a really nice design for our properties. We use really nice neutral colors when it comes to the tile, to the paint, the flooring, the vent hood color, so on, so forth.
Ken (00:40:02) - And you mentioned code enforcement, which we had excellent relationships with the Memphis Shelby County Code Enforcement officers, whether it comes to the electrical inspection, plumbing inspections, what have you, we have really good relationships with those government officials.
Keith Weinhold (00:40:20) - You might want exotic colors for your own home, but in a rental property you want to go neutral. It can take a while to rent a purple kitchen. Now talk to us about the the timeline to rehab and refinance a property. How many months or days does that take? And I'm looking for an not an optimistic scenario, but a realistic scenario and a real life track record of what you've done. Because I've known that our followers have bought a number of properties from you.
Ken (00:40:49) - Yes, our average turnaround time right now is approximately 90 days. The quickest turn that we've ever done from acquisition all the way to the final stage of refinancing was 32 days. But that particular property there was the scope of work of $15,000. It was really clean. Okay, already had a new roof, the AC system was already top knots, so there was just very few things that had to be delivered.
Ken (00:41:21) - But on average it's about 90 days from start to finish. And in this part of the country the weather's quite nice, especially during the summertime. It's very hot, but we are hit occasionally in the wintertime with snow and ice, and it paralyzed the city of Memphis because we're just not equipped the way the northeast is and some other parts of the country when it comes to snow and ice. So we push back our estimated time frame to complete a Berkey property during the winter months to about 120 days. But our average is 90 days, and we tend to we like to under-promise with the 90 days, but we may hit our target in 75 days or 80 days, and we just recently had some properties that we should be able to smash the all time record of 32 days, where we may be able to get from a buy to refinance done, and maybe 21 days.
Keith Weinhold (00:42:21) - Wow. That's the result of a well refined system. And I would submit to most any listener to try to do that across state lines or even in your own home market, as you're trying to manage contractors and codes and inspectors and appraisers and lenders and everything else, you're going to join us with our investment coach narration, co-hosting Gre's live virtual event.
Keith Weinhold (00:42:47) - Alex, a little bit more about what one can expect there. Attending the live virtual event to learn more about what.
Ken (00:42:54) - One can expect is that we will have, I guess, actual numbers on properties that are available, scopes of work, rental amounts that are based on our studies with the data that section eight provides, as well as the local market rents for cash paying tenants. So I do want to make it clear we do have cash paying tenants as well. But we do offer to the investor clients a choice. If we have a four bedroom property, for example, that section 8th May possibly pay 1700 a month for, and then all of a sudden we get a cash paying tenant that's willing to pay 1600. We present the information to the investor to say, hey, would you rather hold out for the $1,700 section eight tenant? Or would you rather go with the $1,600 cash flowing ticket that works at Blue Oval City, the electric vehicle plant that's on the outskirts of Memphis, about 30 miles outside of Memphis at the end.
Ken (00:44:01) - Who knows? Real soon. It was just announced yesterday that X, I and Elon Musk, they've chosen the city of Memphis to be the headquarters for the world's largest supercomputer. So we're looking forward to the benefits and economic boom that that's going to add to the Memphis market.
Keith Weinhold (00:44:23) - All right. So we've got some economic drivers behind this. Learn more about vetting tenants. Berkey and importantly, the value added here. By bringing that team, especially those contractors that are being managed for you with the Berkey join Jerry's live virtual event. It's where you can attend live in real time. You can ask questions if you wish that way, and you can do it all from your own home. Gree investment coach extraordinaire Naresh is going to co-host it along with my guest Ken. Here it is free to attend free learning and if you wish, expect a buying opportunity for property conducive to the BR. Often single family homes two, three and four bedroom properties in Investor Advantage Memphis, you'll learn which properties are right for this and which ones are not.
Keith Weinhold (00:45:10) - Attend tomorrow night it is Tuesday the 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Attend tomorrow and sign up now at GR webinars.com. You can do it right now while it's top of mind for our live event that is at Gray webinars.com. Hey, it's been great having your insight. Thanks so much for coming on the show today.
Ken (00:45:33) - Thank you. You're welcome.
Keith Weinhold (00:45:40) - Between last year and this year, more followers have bought from this provider in this system than any other in the entire nation. Strong deals with less out of pocket for the investor. And maybe you don't prefer a section eight tenant. You can ask about that during the virtual event. And again, what was I saying here last week? This is the event that's a bigger deal than Olympic handball. Really though I would like for you to attend. This is entry level housing. So you're going to own a scarce asset that everyone wants. Expect to be in for a little of your own skin in the game, and you'll own a leveraged asset of tangible value that down the road.
Keith Weinhold (00:46:27) - Demographics say that people will desire to first rent from you and then later buy from you. If you think that it can benefit you and you like to learn, then I'd really like you to attend tomorrow night. I invite you Tuesday the 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Register free now at Gray webinars.com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your day dream.
Speaker 5 (00:46:58) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.
Keith Weinhold (00:47:26) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.
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The homeownership rate has fallen due to low affordability. This means that there are more renters.
There are still just one-half as many housing units as America needs. But it had been one-quarter.
New duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes are vanishing. I describe six reasons why.
Two entire US counties now have a median home price of $2M+. Learn where they are.
It’s better to be an investor than a landlord or flipper.
GRE Investment Coach, Naresh, and I discuss how to use a lower down payment to achieve a potential 20% cash-on-cash return with the BRRRR Strategy. Join our live, virtual event for this at: GREmarketplace.com/webinar.
Resources mentioned:
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RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold properties are vanishing, and sadly, they represent some really good property types that are hardly being built anymore. American housing is changing for good. Two entire U.S. counties now have median home values of $2 million or more. You'll learn where those are and learn about a specific real estate investing strategy, where investors are getting especially high yield returns in today's low affordability market. All today on get rich education.
Robert Syslo (00:00:37) - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform.
Robert Syslo (00:01:09) - Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.
Corey Coates (00:01:23) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold (00:01:39) - What we heard in 188 nations worldwide. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Last week, I covered a lot of bad news here as you and I uncovered some real estate problems. Of course, overall, when you're invested in real estate and obtain productive working income for yourself through tenants in their employment, you can almost always play another side of the coin and be profitable because, well, it really comes right back to the fact that real estate pays five ways simultaneously, for example, souring housing affordability. Well, that's bad for homeowners. That's bad news for people that are primarily want to be homeowners and not you. You're an investor. In fact, here's exactly what that means when you're the investor, the homeownership rate has fallen in in the past year.
Keith Weinhold (00:02:38) - It's gone from 66% down to 65.6% due to that low affordability. Okay. Well, that's just a 4/10 of a percent drop in the homeownership rate. And it is poised to fall further. Or what does that 4/10 really mean. Well, that's the proportion of Americans that don't own their homes. So then they have to rent. And this means that there are hundreds of thousands more American renters today than there were just a year ago. And that pushes up rental demand, rental occupancy and the price of rent itself. And that's what you get to capture off from a low affordability problem, which outsiders only think of as bad real estate news, because it is bad news through the lens of that one of your first time homebuyer. Now I want to tell you about the property types that are disappearing. Just vanishing today, and it's the degree to which it's happening that you probably aren't aware of. I'll also tell you why it's personally concerning to me, why this is all going on at all, and I don't even see any reason that it's going to turn around.
Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - It's probably going to get worse. What's going on is basically that too many builders have thrown their duplex, triplex, and fourplex development plans out the car window like it's an Apple Corps on a summer road trip. They are vanishing. Yes, 2 to 4 unit properties vanishing. In fact, if you're a newsletter subscriber here, you got to see a jarring chart that shows this. And what you'll basically see is that in 2007, the number of 2 to 4 unit properties built just fell off a cliff. It flatlined, and it still hasn't gotten up. The amount constructed now is still just one half to one third of what it had been in pre global financial crisis years. Really they're only closer to a third. All right. So what we're talking about here is only about one third as many duplex triplex and fourplex starts today as there were 20 years ago. And this is sourced by the National Association of Homebuilders. And some call this entire phenomenon M triple M multi families missing middle. And whatever you call this disappearing act.
Keith Weinhold (00:05:10) - Before I get to the reasons for why this is happening, I've got to tell you that this disappearance, it hurts me a little. It's sort of heartfelt because as you know, I began this way with a fourplex that was my first ever property of any kind. You know, the story where I lived in one unit and rented out the other three. It was just an amazing way to start with a bang. Well, now, when we compare this paltry construction, this dearth of. construction today, when we compare that to both smaller property types and larger property types, that being single family homes and five plus unit apartment buildings, will construction of all three of these types fell hard around 2008. But here's the thing. Single family homes and five plus apartment buildings. They got back up around 2010 and they started resuming more building. But duplexes and fourplex, they never did. They never had that happen. The number coming out of the market that just kept flatlining. Those new starts. All right.
Keith Weinhold (00:06:16) - So why exactly is this going on with these vanishing 2 or 3 and four unit property construction types? Why this trend? Well, first, it's NIMBYism, not in my backyard ism primarily of those single family homeowners, because once people are comfy in owning their single family home. Well, then they don't want higher density duplexes in fourplex built in their area. They fear that it can lower their property values. It'll almost certainly increase the traffic around that area. And the second reason is that there simply just been less building overall of most all housing types. And I have discussed this elsewhere, so I won't get into it again. Yes, it is that erstwhile housing supply crash. A third reason for these vanishing 2 to 4 unit properties is the need for zoning reform and the adoption of what's called light touch density. Light touch density. That means a zoning strategy for more dense housing. And what are we up to now for? The fourth reason is that builders, they find more scale efficiencies when they build larger apartments.
Keith Weinhold (00:07:25) - Fifth is limits in international building codes, in international residential codes. And the sixth reason is that this trend began around 2008. These more recent work from home lifestyle starting in 2020. That means that residents can live in single family homes, and they tend to be further from the urban core, rather than 2 to 4 unit properties. And this lifestyle trend right here, that can mean that this disappearing trend for this property type continues. And there you go. They are the six reasons for why. If you were 2 to 4 unit properties are being built today, drastically fewer. And I lament this fact because see duplex the four plex neighborhoods, they can have good walkability where you don't always need a car to get everywhere. And yet at the same time, they still have ample green space. Now, conversely, some fourplex neighborhoods, you know, they can get to look and really junky. Well, they all have different owners. And then there are dumpsters all over the place, like my first fourplex was, and like my second fourplex was as well.
Keith Weinhold (00:08:33) - I really hope that builders become more attracted to the 2 to 4 unit space. See, with giant large apartment complexes, say 300 units. Well, the builder has to wait until the construction of all of those 300 units are done until they can start filling it with rent paying tenants. So therefore builders have to wait longer to start getting that rent income. But instead, construction of this missing middle housing that can be broken into phases. And that way units can be open when they're completed. And that provides early rent revenue to the builder and 2 to 4 unit properties. I mean, they really are an investor sweet spot, but due to builder and lifestyle trends like I'm describing, fewer are being built new. But please remember there were many missing middle properties built decades ago and they can still make good investment properties into the future. In fact, the first two fourplex that I bought were both built in the mid 80s, so there's still plenty that are already out there. The takeaway here for you is that you're going to be seeing fewer new ones, and that means that duplexes to fourplex is now take up a smaller proportion of America's housing stock, and that portion is positioned to become smaller and smaller going forward.
Keith Weinhold (00:09:56) - So it's not that death of these properties. We even have home builders at Gray Marketplace right now with new build 2 to 4 plex. So it isn't their death, but they are dying, waning in number. Now, Jerry recently got Ahold of some jaw dropping info here. I my gosh, now remember a few years ago, maybe even ten or more years ago when you probably heard something like certain small towns in California, Silicon Valley. They now had median priced homes that hit the million dollar mark. And you know, when you first heard that, you might have thought, oh, wow, it's not just neighborhoods, but entire towns in aggregate have hit the million dollar mark in some high priced American places. Well, then get ready for this. As housing affordability makes headlines in California in its wealthiest cities, continue to fight building more housing. We have two Bay area counties, not towns, but entire counties that have hit a milestone. The median price for sold homes there has climbed to $2 million or more.
Keith Weinhold (00:11:15) - We're not just talking 1 million anymore, and we're not just talking about one upper crust town, but two entire California counties now have median home prices of $2 million or more. And notice these are not asking prices. No speculation here. These are the values, the amounts that they have actually sold for. And this is according to a recent California Association of Realtors report. Median homes are now $2 million plus in which two Bay area counties, you might wonder? Well, first, Santa Clara County, which includes San Jose, they notched an even $2 million back in April. And yes, this is more than San Francisco County's $1.8 million. And the second county, it spirals even higher than that. The second California county, with median home prices of 2 million plus is San Mateo County. It's basically a county that lies between San Francisco and San Jose. And that's where the median home price sold for in San Mateo County, California, $2.17 million. Not just one upper crust town, but an entire county.
Keith Weinhold (00:12:38) - Not just $1 million, not even $2 million anymore, but $2.17 million. And this is not for a fancy, lavish home. This is just the median priced home in the middle and San Mateo County that is home to the nation's most expensive zip code, by the way. Atherton, California, where the median home price tops the charts nationally at $7.1 million. That's that is according to Compass Real Estate. And if that's not enough, homes are still flying off the shelves there. They're days on market is now at the lowest since 2022. And though all this sounds pretty astonishing right now, you know what? If you are listening to this episode ten years from now, well into the 2030s, you might think these were the good old days here. How quaint. Because over the next ten years, we all expect more inflation, and we've still got more housing shortage years between now and say, ten years into the future. And of course, here at URI, we don't tend to focus on the high priced markets, which tend to be on the coasts, things like this.
Keith Weinhold (00:13:55) - Really, it's just a harbinger of what's to come to more parts of the nation later on. What we do here is we help you win in real estate without being a landlord and without being a flipper. As a savvy investor that tends to buy either new or fixed up properties and might have a manager manage them for you, hands off is the place to be. Hands off is being an investor, and you get the best tax advantages this way to when your hands off and you know something. Some people that get into real estate investing, they think that they have to be a flipper, or that they have to be a landlord in order to make it profitable. Now, there's nothing wrong with those two disciplines. So much flipping or landlord. I was a landlord for a little while on my own properties. Most of my investment career. I use a property manager and I never flipped. It's just that these things flipping and landlord, they're not any sort of prerequisite to you being a successful investor. You can shortcut all of that with turnkey real estate investing or like with a different strategy that we're going to talk about later today.
Keith Weinhold (00:15:04) - What most people really want is the financial freedom that real estate investing brings. But in order to get there, it's often not the route that you think it is. It's typically not flipping or landlords. And, you know, really it's this way with a lot of things. For example, say that you want to own in ice cream business. Well, most people think that they have to start their own ice cream business from scratch. And like you need to find a space and you need to buy all the equipment and develop systems and go through the excruciating process of hiring all of your staff. No, a lot of times you can shortcut all of that by not starting your own ice cream business, but instead studying, vetting, and buying an existing ice cream business without having to start your own from scratch. Be strategic, study a little, shortcut the process and get in where it's profitable. You want the benefit of owning real estate without having to use a nail gun yourself, or being a manager where you're 25 tenants can text you.
Keith Weinhold (00:16:17) - What kind of life are you building for yourself? Then you want the benefit of owning an ice cream business. The way to get to the end goal. The path there is often different than you think. And here's another example that I can relate to, but I think that you will too. Do you have a favorite real estate? Influencer out there and they think about starting a podcast. Well, I personally know three real estate podcasters out there that have all quit. They produce some episodes and all three quit doing their podcast. And these are just among people I know and just real estate thought leaders. Just that space and all. Recent hosting your own podcast platform is a ton of work from. You need to have a huge bank of your own original content, to having the ability to book big name guests and then making sure they're prepared to. Making sure you have the right marketing team so that a podcast actually reaches the right people. It is work, work, work, and seemingly no one in this world knows that better than me.
Keith Weinhold (00:17:21) - With 500 plus episodes reliably released every single week since 2014, and we don't replay old shows either, there is nothing passive about this. There are so many shows today that if your favorite real estate influencer starts one, they're going to be competing with a lot that are already out there. I mean, anymore, even celebrities that start podcasts, they usually don't get any substantial reach or traction. All these people that start and quit their podcasts, they were too slow to realize that actually they didn't want to host a podcast. What they really wanted is for their voice to be heard. Well, the way to shortcut that, like with turnkey real estate investing or with buying an existing ice cream business, is that that influencer should have developed a strategy for being a guest on other shows that are already popular and established, probably by hiring an experienced and connected booking agent. That way, you've outsourced all of that marketing and research activity to another show that already did that for you. So the point is, be clear on getting what you want.
Keith Weinhold (00:18:34) - What is the goal that you want first, it's probably a large real estate portfolio built for leverage and income, and then work your way back to try to find the most efficient route to get there. And there are often shorter paths to get there than what you first thought. Now, when we talk about where are the best real estate deals today, you have to look harder than you did, say, 8 to 10 years ago. Coming up shortly, you'll have the pleasure of hearing an in-house chat with I in one of Gre's own investment coaches. We're going to talk about a strategy that specific and proven but underutilized in order to recapture those higher cash on cash returns like you could have gotten back in, say, 2015 and 2016. And for a time, I had been talking about how Newbuild properties and their builder interest rate buy downs, that they're really the place to be. And that's still true, but not to the extent that it was just a year ago, because today some builders, they're not paying down your interest rate for you as much as they did last year.
Keith Weinhold (00:19:39) - They're asking you to pay more toward it. Now. A few minutes ago, I told you about America's vanishing duplexes to fourplex. And if you're one of our newsletter readers, you got to see a jarring chart or two that demonstrates exactly what I was talking about there. And also in our newsletter, I show you great maps, real estate maps that beautifully demonstrate housing market trends and where the opportunities are for you. Also, in a recent letter, I showed you exactly where I'm getting 8% interest paid to me and what's basically a savings account. If you don't already subscribe, it is free. Our email letter is called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter. It's concise, valuable info that's just good, clean content that I put directly into your hands. It is easier to use than a website. Today's websites have paywalls and cookies, disclaimers or pop up ads. This is just the good stuff directly from me, straight to you. And you can get the letter now at get Rich education com slash letter that's get rich education com slash letter.
Keith Weinhold (00:20:50) - In a world of AI and bots, I actually write every word of the don't quit your daydream letter myself, just like I have from day one. And another easy way to start the free letter is text gray to 66866. Just do it right now while it's on your mind. Text gray to 6686616. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.
Keith Weinhold (00:22:02) - Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending group and MLS for 2056 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. This is peak prosperity.
Robert Syslo (00:23:00) - Chris Martinson, listen to get Rich education with Keith Arnold and don't quit your daydream.
Keith Weinhold (00:23:15) - Hey, would like to welcome in Gray's extraordinary investment coach. He's booksmart because he's got his MBA. He street smart because he's an active direct real estate investor, just like I am. Before joining gray back in 2021, he worked for financial publishing companies and in the banking sector, too and elsewhere. And today is an investment coach here.
Keith Weinhold (00:23:36) - He helps beginning real estate investors understand the process of acquiring rental property, and he helps veteran investors optimize their strategies to save on taxes and more. Hey, it's terrific to welcome back Naresh Vizard. Thanks a lot Keith. It's been a while, but I'm looking forward to talking real estate before we're done. Today, we're going to tell you about an upcoming live GRE virtual event, where you learn how to get 20 to 25% of immediate built in equity through real estate. And before we do the race, let's talk about what's really going on. Besides giving GRE devotees free education and guidance like you do, you also help them find the best deals on income properties nationwide and for a time, brand new build to rent properties they look good in. Many still do with a lot of rate buy downs into the fives and even the fours on those new build properties. But this year, I learned that builders aren't contributing to buying down the race for the investor like they had last year, and that the onus seems to be more on the investor to buy the rate down with some of these builders.
Keith Weinhold (00:24:44) - So tell us more about what's happening in America's build to rent sector. Well, Keith, build to rent. For those who don't know, it's been around here at GRA. Bill to rent asset classes, build to rent real estate. But it's the concept of builders building real estate properties with the intention of selling them to investors so they can rent it out. So right now I live in a house that was built, and I bought it because the builder intended for somebody to buy it and live in it. That's not built to rent. Build to rent is the idea of.
Naresh Vissa (00:25:16) - Specifically selling it to investors like our listeners, like our loyal followers who live out of state and who want to rent the properties out to tenants. Now, Build to Rent was very hot and it's still popular. I don't want to call it hot, but it's still popular for those who want new construction properties. However, the rehabs are making a furious comeback because there was about a four year period from 2019 to 23 or so where you just couldn't find good cash flowing rehabs.
Naresh Vissa (00:25:50) - Right. And when I say rehabs, I mean these older properties that were built 50 years ago, maybe as long as 120 years ago there we have some properties in our inventory that were built in the late 1800s, and they've just kept being rehabbed and rehabbed and renovated. Buildings are making a furious comeback because they're cash flowing better. Previously, they were just cash flowing marginally better than new construction built to rent properties. Now, especially with a strategy called ver, which we'll talk about some more, you can have the opportunity to get cash on cash returns back to what you remember in 2016, 2015 where we're talking 15, 16% cash on cash returns. I mean, some of our BR clients or listeners who ended up buying BRS, they're doing 2021 all the way up to 30% cash on cash returns. So BR simply means buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat the cycle. So that's B followed by for Rs b r r r r buy, rehab, rent, refinance. Repeat the process again.
Naresh Vissa (00:27:10) - And it's during that refinance where investors are getting a good chunk of their down payment back. Because what happens in that refinance is after you rehab it and you read it, you rent it out at the target rent, which almost all of these are renting out at very aggressive high target rents. When you refinance it, the property appraises at a value that's much, much greater post rehab than when you initially bought it. And that's where you get essentially your money back. You can choose to keep it in with the mortgage company so you have more equity in the property, or you can take the cash back and use it to buy more BR properties. It's become a very popular. Form of real estate investing. People think when they hear this. Well, it sounds like flipping, right. This is not flipping. Flipping is kind of like day trading. You're looking to make a quick buck, whereas in this case you're not selling the property. You're keeping the property with the intention of renting it out and collecting the cash flow from your tenant.
Naresh Vissa (00:28:19) - So that's in a nutshell, what BRR is. And we are having a live event on Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. That's Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern. Time to talk about and go over this BR process. The bird key process or listeners are familiar with turnkey. Well we have BR key which is similar except it's using the BR method. And Keith, you probably know this and you've talked about it a little bit on your podcast. BR has become the most popular strategy that our investors are utilizing this year, 2024.
Keith Weinhold (00:29:01) - Yeah. Now back to the build to render the new build properties is attractive as they can be because they attract a certain quality of tannin and they're not going to have any maintenance or repair issues, most likely for quite a while. The thing with those is, oh, you might pay 300 K or more for a new build. Single family home in the builder rent style with 20% down payment, 5% for closing costs, you're out of pocket. 75 K.
Keith Weinhold (00:29:30) - One reason that this has become the most popular strategy for gray followers we're talking about here. The BR strategy is that you could come out of pocket with a lot less to begin with.
Naresh Vissa (00:29:42) - That's number one. Number one is we have some GRE followers who went into this Berkey and they put no money down. They got lucky. They initially bought the property, and the property appraised so much that they got their money back and their down payment was actually zero. They didn't make money on it, but what they allocated, what they thought that they would allocate 25% down, they ended up using that money since they got it back to buy a second property and then a third property and then a fourth party. We have one guy who bought six properties, all birds, because he didn't get I don't want to say, look, we're not making promises that you're going to put 0% down. That's not the promises that we're making. The worst case scenario is that you put 25% down and that's your standard real estate investment.
Naresh Vissa (00:30:27) - But there is a chance that you could put 15% down or 10% down if the rehab turns out really well. And if you get a good appraiser, there's a chance it can happen. But the goal here, again, is not to make a quick buck or to house hack. We're not taking shortcuts here. The goal here is simply to buy a property renovated or rehab it and drive up the rent price, drive up the value of the property, put a good tenant in there and call it a day. Collect those cash flows. Now I do want to say a few things about that process. So like I said, the first thing that you do is you buy. So first you buy, then you rehab. You do not have to do we call it Berkey because everything is done for you. So when people hear this, they're like, oh, this sounds like I live in Florida. I don't want to go to Memphis. And by the way, this specific market is in Memphis, Tennessee that we're focusing on.
Naresh Vissa (00:31:26) - We have burrs in Baltimore, Maryland and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. But we've identified Memphis as not just the hottest, but it just makes the most sense numbers wise. And so I want to go back to the point of, hey, you don't have to physically go or even go on Google and find handymen or rehab ers to do this for you, our Berkey provider. The best part is they do it all for you. It's completely taken care of. You literally just sign some papers. Once you decide that you like a property and the specs of the property, you sign some papers. They take care of it. The rehab takes about 90 days. Then from rehab to closing, it takes another 40 days or so. And then from closing to someone signing a lease that takes another 30 days to find somebody, stick them in there and takes another 30 days after that for the tenant to move in. So overall, this process can actually take just for one property. You can take six months.
Keith Weinhold (00:32:26) - Now. Naresh has touched on it somewhat. One conventional problem with the Burr strategy by rehab rent, refinance, repeat is that first are the rehab because it involves vetting and managing contractors, which is a real nightmare for many. So instead, we're talking about tapping into a system with a proven team of contractors and lenders and project managers to make it easy. It's known as Berkey, and it's in profitable Memphis.
Naresh Vissa (00:32:54) - Profitable Memphis. And I'll say this about Memphis, we're going to talk. Way more about this on the webinar. Highly recommend people go to GRI webinars. Com gri webinars.com. You can sign up for the webinar there. It's actually live. So this is not like something that you just can show up to whenever you want. It's a live event on Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. That's Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Great webinars.com is how you can register. And like you said, we could have focused on Baltimore, Maryland or Pittsburgh. Memphis has really and I myself by the way, own five properties and four in Memphis proper.
Naresh Vissa (00:33:42) - And one is in the Memphis area and Mississippi, a suburb of of Memphis. And this I don't want to call it a town, because Memphis used to be one of the most popular towns in the south back in the day. But this city has really come up as a result of pandemic, of population growth, of even inflation. We've seen rents go up, we've seen the population go up. Memphis is not what you think of from eight years ago. Seven years ago when I first bought my properties. I'll admit, when I bought my first property seven years ago in Memphis, I had a lot of problems with tenants. I had a lot of problems with the city. I didn't like what I was reading about the police department, just all sorts of things. Not the police department, just crime in general. And Memphis has really turned itself around. Not completely turned itself around, but it's gotten better. And we're seeing it just on the investment side because that's where we're seeing appreciation growth. My personal properties, they're up since 2020, since January 2020, I was when I closed all my last Memphis property.
Naresh Vissa (00:34:49) - They're all up at least 50% in value. So it's a market that's still appreciating. But the most important thing because we are cash flow investors, not necessarily appreciation investors. It's great to get the appreciation, but the rents keep going up. And I actually today I've talked to a Berkey client, great loyal Jerry listener and follower who ended up buying three properties, and she's on her fourth one, or about to do a fourth one with this Memphis market provider. And when she told me her rents, I was blown away at how much these properties were renting for before the rehab. So it's not just the appreciation again, that goes up after the rehab, how much they were renting for before the rehab. We're talking less than $800 a month and post rehab. Her rents went up by nearly 50%, about 45% on average. House rehab is like three bedroom, one and a half bathroom. Homes initially she bought them. This is how a lot of the properties are. They only had two bedrooms and they converted one of the spaces.
Naresh Vissa (00:36:05) - The rehab were converted at no extra. You know, it's all inclusive of the rehab charges. They were able to find space in a lot of these properties that were two bedrooms to create a third bedroom and turn them into three bedroom properties instead of two bedroom properties, which also improves the value of the home. And you can get another body in there and increase the rent. So, Jerry, listeners have been really, really happy with this burpee process because at the end of the day, you really do get more bang for your buck. Yes, new construction overall. It's just safer. We have tons of great new construction providers, especially in Florida, whom we recommend, but this is an alternative for those people who don't have $100,000 sitting in the bank ready to invest in a new construction, single family, or a new construction duplex. The Berkey, I mean, really all you need is about 20, $25,000 to do it. And like I said, if you get lucky, you could get a decent portion of that back after the rehab.
Keith Weinhold (00:37:08) - Well, you bring up so many good points there in the race. For one thing, with real estate, you can intentionally improve the value. That's something that you cannot do if you own a stock or if you own cryptocurrency, or if you own gold, you can help control what your investment is worth. And a lot of that happens here in the rehab process. Well, the race would love to tell you more, including walking you through an example with numbers, but that's the best place for him to do it. That is on the live event next week because it is co-hosted by narration. You can join the live virtual event from the comfort of your own home. You can ask questions and have them answered in real time. It is all free and we'll also be sharing special off market Berkey inventory. In Memphis for two, three and four bedroom properties, so go ahead and attend on June 25th. Which again is next Tuesday. Be sure to register now at GR webinars.com. Just been great to walk through the Berkey.
Keith Weinhold (00:38:12) - Thanks so much for coming back on the show.
Naresh Vissa (00:38:14) - Thank you. It's been a pleasure.
Keith Weinhold (00:38:21) - Oh good info from Gree investment coach Naresh as always. Next week's live event. That could be a bigger deal than the Paris Olympics this summer and this year's presidential election combined. Oh yes. Well, at least it expects to be more profitable for you than those other events. It will also be more entertaining when you join as an attendee live next week. Certainly more entertaining and informative than Olympic handball and Olympic race walking, no doubt about that. I don't think I've offended any race walking fans because there are only perhaps five in the world. In any case, BR is a process by which, after you buy months later, you can expect to refinance at a higher valuation since the property has been rehabbed from your initial purchase, and then you get a big chunk of your own down payment back, meaning you have less invested in the deal. And that's why you get a higher cash on cash return. Because cash and cash return all that is, is your annual cash flow divided by your initial investment or your starting equity position.
Keith Weinhold (00:39:37) - The last R in BR is repeat. You can repeat sooner because you did get some of your invested cash back. And that's part of what makes the strategy so effective. Now is part of your refi. You might get a post appraisal rehab that's so high you essentially get all of your down payment money returned to you, at which point it would be an infinite return because you don't have anything invested in the deal. But you should not count on having all of it returned, just a lot of it or most of it. Next week's live event is where the BR real estate investing strategy gets introduced to a wider swath of America one last time. Attend live next Tuesday. The 25th. I really encourage you to check it out. Be sure to sign up for the virtual GRE live event now! It's pretty quick and easy to do at GR webinars.com. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Don't quit your day dream.
Speaker 5 (00:40:41) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.
Speaker 5 (00:40:45) - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.
Robert Syslo (00:41:09) - The preceding program was brought.
Keith Weinhold (00:41:10) - To you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich Education.com.
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Big capital gains tax bills are hitting more home sellers. Exemptions exist for up to $250K single, $500K married.
Bad housing affordability means a low home ownership rate, hence, more renters.
The homeownership rate has dropped from 66.0% to 65.6% in the last year.
I have a hole in the roof of a rental single-family home, with about $10K in damage. Learn how I handle it.
Two of the first three income properties that I bought performed poorly.
VP of Market Economics at Auction.com, Daren Blomquist joins me. We learn why foreclosure activity is 10% to 20% below pre-pandemic levels.
Learn about judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states.
From homeowners surveyed, the top concern about falling into delinquency are rising insurance and property taxes.
Auction bidders are confident about the real estate market. They’re willing to pay more, which is 60% of ARV nationally.
You can bid on distressed properties with your phone via Auction.com.
Opportunity Zones are generally working.
Resources mentioned:
Nation’s Largest Online RE Auction Marketplace:
Auction.com
For access to properties or free help with a
GRE Investment Coach, start here:
GREmarketplace.com
Get mortgage loans for investment property:
RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE
or e-mail: [email protected]
Invest with Freedom Family Investments.
You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866
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Complete episode transcript:
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:00:00)) - - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, talking about a lot of housing market problems today. Capital gains taxes hitting more home sellers. Home affordability is still bad. The American homeownership rate is falling. I've got roof damage on one of my own properties. Then an update on American mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. It's mostly bad real estate news today on Get Rich Education.
Speaker Syslo** ((00:00:29)) - - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.
Speaker Syslo** ((00:01:06)) - - Sign up now for the Get Rich education podcast or visit GetRichEducation.com.
Speaker Coates** ((00:01:14)) - - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:01:30)) - - We're gonna go from Bavaria, Germany, to Batavia, New York, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich education. There is a large online source of foreclosure and bank owned properties that you won't find on the MLS. In fact, they are the largest in the nation, and their VP of Market Economics will be here with us later today. Home price appreciation. That has been wonderful for the last several years. But one negative consequence is the fact that more home sellers now are getting hit with big capital gains tax bills. Now we'll discuss income property shortly, but when it comes to primary residences, you probably know that if you are single, you won't pay any capital gains tax on the first 250 K profit of your sale. That 250 K exemption. That is only half of what married couples enjoy.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:02:29)) - - They don't have to pay tax on the first 500 K of profit. Yes, a $500,000 exemption on capital gains for married couples. So basically, single people in high priced markets like you often find on the coasts, they get hit the hardest. Married couples in lower priced markets more toward the heartland and in the South. Those married couples, they're more likely to get away without paying any tax on the profit from their home sale. All right, well, just what proportion of homes are we talking about here? Well, last year, 8% of sales had capital gains of over 500 K. All right, well that potentially makes them exposed to the tax hit. Compare that to a couple decades ago. That share was just over 1%. So it's gone from 1% to 8%. These are exorbitant capital gains tax events. And you know what this does. People trying to avoid that it keeps even more homes off the market. Now it's not as pronounced as the well-documented interest rate lock in effect okay. Call this the capital gains tax lock.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:03:46)) - - In effect people avoid the tax by not selling. And it makes some older people age in place. That's part of what's going on here. Because if the homeowner keeps it until they die, then the heirs, they might be able to sell it tax free due to the tax laws and capital gains taxes. Like, what rate do you actually pay that can be as high as around 20% on you for selling your primary residence if the gain exceeds those thresholds? And yeah, those thresholds, they haven't moved with inflation in quite a long time. Now, understand that right now you are living in an era where many Americans, they can't afford to live in the home that they live in right now if they tried to repurchase it at today's prices. So again, it's not the mortgage rate lag in effect here. It's the purchase price paid lock in effect. Now look, yes, overall I am a real estate market optimist. You are too, when you understand how real estate pays you five ways. But as far as anyone saying something like, oh, there is never been a better time to buy, that doesn't make any sense.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:02)) - - Now. At the same time, I don't see any evidence that waiting is going to do you any favors, but there have obviously been some better times to buy. In fact, do you know the best year in modern history that I can think of for buying real estate? Any idea it was the year 2013? Yeah, 2013. That's when prices were low because they still hadn't bounced much off of the GFC lows and mortgage rates. They actually were in the absurdly low threes back in 2013. Now starting in 2021 you know I have been on record on this show. I've been on record on television and on our own YouTube channel here and in Forbes and elsewhere. Since then, I've said that home prices, they're not poised to fall, they're going to stay stable or they're going to keep going up. I was perhaps one of the earlier people to point that 3 or 4 years ago that the low housing supply and the government safety nets that won't let people lose their homes, those things keep the markets buoyant.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:06:16)) - - Now, today, I see more signs that prolonged bad affordability will slow down. Home price growth in that part is bad for investors, of course. Prolonged. Bad affordability. That means something good for income centric investors at the same time, sort of like David Stockman and I touched on last week here. Yes. Souring affordability. What that means is a falling homeownership rate that would make sense in the homeownership rate. That means that just what it sounds like, that is the proportion of American homes that are occupied by their owner in the past year. Yeah, the homeownership rate has fallen, but not too much yet because there are some lag effects and other factors to account for. Like, imagine if there are new zero money down loan programs that are made available. You can see how that would make homes more affordable, even if rates and prices and wages stayed the same. So there are X factors out there and lag effects out there. In the past year, the homeownership rate has fallen from 66% down to 65.6%.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:07:33)) - - Not too much of a slide, just 4/10 of 1%. That is a Fred stat sourced through the Census Bureau. All right. So what's that really mean if you're looking for income. Well, what that means is that there are now hundreds of thousands of additional renters today than there were just one year ago. And the number of renters, those that aren't homeowners, that looks to increase in both absolute and relative terms. There's a lot of people expect the homeownership rate to continue to drop from here. Now, no investor conditions are absolutely ideal everywhere you look. In fact, of the first three investment properties that I personally bought in my life, only one of those three went really well. It was that first ever fourplex I bought because it appreciated from 295 K to 425 K in just three and a half years, and it provided some cash flow and even a place for me to live. But the second property I bought, which was also a fourplex, it hardly cash flow because I bought it at 90% loan to value, and I also bought it in 2007.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:08:46)) - - Not great timing, so its value dropped. I was a pretty new real estate investor then, and when its value dropped, it didn't return to the 530 K value that I bought it for for about six years. And then I got wiser and I started buying across state lines, since that's where the best deals often are. Well, this was then my third investment property, a brick single family home that cost 153 K in the Dallas-Fort worth area. And the main reason I bought it is because it was cheap, which was a mistake. It was also in a growing area, but I couldn't keep it occupied, so I soon sold it for about the same price that I bought it for. All right. But even in those far less than ideal beginnings for me, two of my first three properties, they weren't disasters, but they weren't a great experience either. Yet I still got some leverage, a little cash flow. I got tenant made principal pay down all the while, tax benefits all the while, and that inflation profiting benefit.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:09:52)) - - And I did then find myself better off overall. Despite that the appreciation and the cash flow weren't all that great. If you blend those first three properties together and today, perhaps a lot like you or what you want to do. I own properties in multiple markets, and I remotely made as the property managers in those markets. And you know, just yesterday I got an email from one of my property managers about roof damage to one of my properties. It's a rental single family home. It's going to be about $10,000 worth of repair work. Some bad news and the way I'm hailing it is a way that you might think of handling a real estate problem. I sure don't just send off a $10,000 check right away and chalk it up as a loss, and ask myself how many months it's going to take me to make that up. The first thing that you can do in this situation is check to see if you have a home warranty that covers it in full or in part. Whether you bought your property new or renovated, a warranty might apply.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:10:58)) - - It actually does not in my case here. Well, if the warranty doesn't cover your issue, of course, check with your insurance provider and see what your deductible is there. Consider that when insurance premiums have risen sharply in a lot of markets, you need to get something back for that premium that you're paying in a lot of cases. All right. And if those things don't work, then don't just take the first quote that your property manager gives you that they got from the first contractor, which is. Ten K in my case. For a substantial work item, ask your property manager to obtain at least three quotes for you. That's reasonable. And then look at the most competitive of those three quotes. So to review here three ways to avoid paying. For example a full 10-K. In my case it's your warranty, it's your insurance. And if you feel like you must come out of pocket, then get three quotes in order to reduce your cost. And here's the thing you don't do these things yourself.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:12:03)) - - What you do is you ask your manager to do these things and make it easy for you. Your manager should check with your insurance policy and they should check on your warranty. And then you can back it up and take a look at it. If you don't like the answer, they should obtain the roofing contractor quotes for you to. You are paying your manager for this stuff, maybe 8 or 10% in a management fee, and that should not be for nothing. Have them do this stuff that's their job and ask them to do it. Because if you don't just watch, they'd be happy to have you do it for them. Don't. You don't have to. So we're talking about mitigating your out-of-pocket cost in your time expended when you have a real estate issue, like a hole in a roof of one of my single family rentals. Now sometimes you're going to get caught in some snafu. But again, our strategy here is that you're usually not even holding any one rental property for more than 7 to 10 years, because by that time, it's accumulated sufficient equity so that you can make a tax deferred exchange up to another property, keep leveraging that equity, because the rate of return from equity is always zero.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:13:16)) - - Now, that process, that 7 or 10 years, that might be on the slower end. Now though, since the property that you consider relinquishing is going to have a lower mortgage rate than your replacement property, it will. And one other thing to keep in mind here it's about providing America with that clean, safe, affordable, functional housing. What that means is that while roof quotes are being obtained here if needed, and it takes a few works until those roof repairs can begin, what you can do is have a cheap temporary repair done until the permanent roof fix starts. That's pretty common with roofing repairs, and that way not only is any interim damage avoided, but the tenant is not being negatively impacted here either. No slumlords around here. As we're discussing real estate problems today, we're about to delve into what happens when homeowners in real estate investors, when they can't make the mortgage payments on their property, and is that proportion of people going up or is that going down in this low affordability market? We'll also get some takeaways by looking at the bidder activity on foreclosure properties.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:14:33)) - - That can tell us quite a bit about the market and about buyer expectations for the future of the market. And I'll also tell you how you too, if you're interested, you can find opportunities and get a deep discount on a foreclosed upon property. That's all. Next with a great guest, I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just $25. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:15:41)) - - Hundreds of others are. Text. Family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056 in grey history, from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. This is Rich dad advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream. This week's guest is the VP of Market Economics at auction. Com they are the largest online source of foreclosure and bank owned properties that you won't find on the MLS. You can bid on properties from anywhere with your mobile device. We'll learn more about that later. First, we're covering a general real estate market update today, and then we're mostly going to discuss what's happening in the foreclosure market, including just what a foreclosure market even is.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:17:25)) - - Hey, it's been over a year since we've had you here. So a big gray welcome back to Darren Lundquist. Thank you so much. It's great to be back and.
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:17:34)) - - Glad to see you, Keith.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:17:35)) - - For listeners in the audio only Blomquist is spelled with just one oh, despite being pronounced. Blomquist and Daren, as we talk about the state of these markets today, it also helps to mix in lessons for the follower and listener that's watching or consuming this. In ten years. And before we discuss foreclosures. Now, Darren, when I look at the residential real estate market today, there are a few ways that it appears rather normalized actually. For example, all price appreciation rates are normal rent growth levels. They're pretty close to historic norms. Interest rates are even near historic norms, which is a surprise to laypersons. But that's three huge measures that are actually normal, and no one else anywhere talks about that. But there are some aberrations in today's market, the most chronic and saddening of which is the lack of housing supply.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:18:28)) - - So with that backdrop, what are your thoughts on today's overall American housing market?
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:18:34)) - - It's really interesting. We have these normal metrics that we look at when we look at how home price appreciation. Now home sales I would say are abnormally low. Right. But home price appreciation is doing well. Some of the other metrics that we look at. But it's coming off of this abnormal what I would say an abnormal period over the last three years or so, mostly during the pandemic when the housing market went a little bit crazy and you saw home prices rise abnormally fast. I would argue too fast for such a short period of time. And so you'd almost expect after a period like that to see a correction in home prices. And we saw a slight correction in late 2022, early 23. Right. But now home prices are, as you mentioned, kind of back to normal actually maybe a little bit on the high side of normal, 5 to 7% home price appreciation that we're seeing annually. And so there is this sense that things look normal.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:19:32)) - - But below the surface there are, I believe I would argue and you may not agree with this, some underlying problems that I think could come back to bite us if, you know, depending on how things go over the next few years. But certainly the underlying fundamental biggest storyline, that's not necessarily maybe as accessible to a lot of people is this housing supply that you mentioned, Keith. And over the last the decade that ended in 2020, we saw, I would guess, based on my analysis, about 4 to 5 million housing units that were not built, that in a sense should have been built. But we were short 4 to 5 million housing units relative to the number of households that were being formed during that same time period. And so that is set us up for this market that we're in now in the 2020s, where we're seeing, despite the fact that home prices are going up and are out of whack with fundamental price to income ratios. In other words, affordability is a problem. Despite that fact, home prices continue to go up because you have this underlying lack of supply and so you have enough demand to fuel rising home prices, given the lack of supply, if that makes sense.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:20:48)) - - Yes. You mentioned the paltry volume of sales, which is really one consequence of this constrained supply. And there are so many ways to measure it. You threw some numbers out there just using Fred's active listing count. They have one and a half to 2 million homes normally available. Inventory bottomed out near a jaw dropping, just fantastically paltry 350,000 units in 2022. And then the latest figure is about 730 K. So really doubling off the bottom, but yet still far below what is needed there in in 2021 and 2022, I started informing our audience that the housing crash of this generation, it's already occurred. It was a supply crash, which hedges against a price crash even amidst a tripling of interest rates. I guess there. And from your vantage point, when will this low housing supply abate?
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:21:46)) - - But I think on the multifamily side, you're seeing signs that we've, in a sense, caught up with housing supply. You're seeing the multifamily sectors start in terms of the builders start to pull back. I think because of that.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:21:58)) - - And one piece of evidence of that is the slowdown in rent appreciation. But then on the Single-Family side, we're still seeing pretty robust increases in housing starts and builders starting housing units. And I was just looking at the latest numbers for April up 18% year over year. And we're at over a million housing starts in April on an annualized basis. You know, it's hard to predict what household formation will be doing over the next decade, but I believe that million number is enough to supply the new households that are being formed and are projected to be formed over the next few years. And so we're kind of at a place where at least we're treading water in terms of housing supply. And I do think there are some demographic trends that could by the year 2030, which may seem like a long ways off still, but by that time we would see this kind of reverse a little bit. And the demographic trends I'm talking about are slower population growth, the birth rates. There's a big article in the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:22:58)) - - If you write, birth rates are surprisingly not really coming back. They dropped during the pandemic have not really come back. And in many areas, including the US or below replacement level in terms of replacing the population at 2.1. Yes. So not to get too deep into the demographics, I'm not a demographer, but I think that combined with these increases in housing starts that we're seeing, we will see that supply in the next five years. Maybe when I'm on next, I'm with you to see that it is a slow moving train. I think we're headed in a good direction in terms of that, that housing supply. And those are already, I would argue, some early signs at 2024 at least. It's still a low supply environment, but it's at least somewhat better, incrementally better than 2023 was in terms of inventory. And we're seeing some more inventory. Come on. One tip I would just say that's I think a long term thing to look for, no matter what environment you're in, is if you look at the inventory, inventory is a great and a barometer of market health.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:24:00)) - - And if you look at inventory numbers by market, which we do, you do see some markets all of a sudden inventory is starting to spike. And that to me is a signal that those markets could be softening in terms of prices and even in terms of sales. So you see some markets in Florida popping up like that. But whether or not we're talking about now or anytime, it's a great metric to look at. For anybody investing in real estate, especially at a market level, is that inventory of homes. You can look at month supply of inventory for sale. Six months supply is a great milestone. If there's six months supply, that's a balanced market. If it's below six months supply, it's a seller's market. And if it's above six months supply, it's a buyer's market. So just a general kind of rule of thumb to look for there.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:46)) - - Sure. We've seen months of supply three months or less in an awful lot of places. However, you alluded to coming potential problems for the housing market earlier.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:55)) - - Can you tell us more about that? Have you already done that with talking about a potential softening with some inventory coming on faster in some markets?
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:25:04)) - - I think you're a thesis about this. The housing crash has already happened and it was a supply crash is very interesting. When I look at price to income ratios over time, you know, home prices versus incomes, we've diverged from that long term mean of that price to income ratio right. In the last couple of years. We saw that during the the bubble of 2004 five six. But it's even more dramatic in the last couple of years where we saw at the peak of this, the actual home prices. We. Nationwide, we're about 30% above what we would expect the price to be based on incomes and that historic price to income ratio. And so I do expect a reversion to the mean at some point. Now, whether that could occur as a pretty sharp correction, although I can't point to a specific trigger that would cause that correction necessarily may could occur more of a stagnation over time, where home prices kind of flatten out and increase less than the median long term average.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:26:07)) - - I do believe that we will see a reversion to that mean eventually, especially as we see more supply coming onto the market. I think it's actually healthy for the housing market, but it could be experienced by many people as weakness in the housing market, because you could see home prices decline a little bit, especially in certain markets.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:26:25)) - - From your vantage point. Darren, you are an expert there in helping people find deals because you really keep a pulse on what's happening in the foreclosure market. Maybe some of our audience doesn't completely understand what the foreclosure market means. Now, Darren, I think of delinquency is that condition means that mortgage borrowers have been making some late payments. Tell us about how delinquency differs from foreclosure. And that will help if you go ahead and define just what the foreclosure market is.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:26:57)) - - Starting with the foreclosure market. I mean, when you can call it the distressed market or the foreclosure market. And that's really where auctions. Com operates. And is this foreclosure market, it's loans that the borrower cannot continue to make payments for a variety of reasons.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:27:12)) - - When you have a home that's financed and the borrower cannot continue to make payments, the recourse for the lender is foreclosure to take back that property by taking back that property and then selling it, recouping or trying to recoup as much of the losses on that property that they can in terms of the loan that was given on that property. Okay.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:27:34)) - - So let's talk about delinquencies here. We're looking at certain levels of severity being 30 days late on your payments, being 60 days late and being 90 days late. And interestingly, we see a big spike in FHA loan types that have had more delinquencies than conventional loan types.
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:27:50)) - - That's right. Yeah. So delinquency is kind of the top of the funnel if you think of the distressed market or for leisure market as a funnel, the top of that funnel is someone can't make their payment one month. They miss their payment, mortgage payment one month. That's what this 30 or 30 day delinquency. And when you look at the chart that we're looking at, you do see those 30 day delinquencies rising over the especially on FHA loans, which are, I would argue, the most kind of risky loans in our current marketplace.
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:28:19)) - - Yeah, the last ten years, over the last decade. And we see those even from 2021, rising steadily up back to really 2019 highs on the 30 day delinquencies, you also see a slight gradual increase in conventional loans, which are loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as VA loans. But those are the 30 day delinquencies. They're are not back to pre-pandemic levels even on that front. So that's the 30 day. Usually if someone misses a monthly payment, it's not super serious at that point. What really gets more into our marketplace is when we see a 90 day delinquency, or what's known as a seriously delinquent loan alone, that is past due by 90 plus days. And we have that chart here. What stands out to me on this chart is you actually see those 90 day delinquencies continuing for the most part to trend lower, even though the 30 day delinquencies are going up, 90 days are coming down, and there's a lot of reasons for that. But at the end of the day, that means people maybe are getting into trouble, but they're able to get out of trouble before they lose the home to foreclosure in many instances.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:29:29)) - - All right. So in summary, 30 and 60 day delinquencies have risen over the past two years. But over the past two years, serious delinquencies, 90 day delinquencies therefore, are lower over the past two years.
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:29:43)) - - That's right. And then if we look at foreclosure starts, which is kind of the next step. So you missed three months worth of payments. That's when the bank starts to think about starting the official foreclosure process. And if you look at foreclosure starts, we are seeing those rise as well. And part of the reason that you see these rising, even though seriously delinquent loans are falling, is because there was a bit of a backlog from the pandemic still. Yeah, loans that were delinquent when the pandemic started that were delayed from going to foreclosure, that are now coming back. So we see this sharp drop off in 2020 when there was a foreclosure moratorium. Those numbers have reverted back, have bounced back. But there's we're still seeing about 60 to 70,000 foreclosure starts, a quarter nationwide just to put some numbers on this.
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:30:31)) - - But back in the first quarter of 2020, before the foreclosure moratoriums, we were at 81,000. So we're still at about 80% of the pre-pandemic levels. But foreclosure starts have come back. We're just getting back to what I would consider kind of normal levels of foreclosure, and especially if you look at in the context of what we saw during in 2009, 2010, we were seeing over 500,000 foreclosure starts a quarter back then. Now we're seeing 68,000. So we're paling in comparison to those numbers.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:31:04)) - - As you, the investor, is thinking this through, we're talking about how many opportunities there will be for you here, basically to scoop up a distressed deal, a fixed and flip property. If you're looking to fix and flip one just in the general context, that's what we're talking about here.
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:31:21)) - - Opportunities really foreclosure starts are for. Opportunities. If we look at where the opportunities are emerging in terms of those foreclosure starts, we do see a lot of increases in looking at March of 2024. Year over year, a lot of increases in Florida, and foreclosure starts and also Texas in California.
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:31:42)) - - So it's interesting. I mean, these are markets that are doing pretty well, pretty healthy. But we are seeing some of those foreclosure starts come back in pretty big percentage wise in those areas. If we look at auction com data, specifically the state level, in the interest of time. But just to look through the lens of looking for opportunities. Auction com resides a step after the foreclosure start. Then eventually it goes to a foreclosure auction where the property either sells to an investor or it goes back to the bank is what's known as an REO. And where we're seeing on our platform the biggest kind of return to normal levels of foreclosure auction volume, where there's that property actually is sold, is mostly in the Rust Belt, Upper Midwest. That's where we're seeing volumes return to normal. And a place like Florida, we're only seeing foreclosure volumes are over 70% below normal, and Texas were 55% below normal. And when I say normal, I'm saying I'm comparing that to pre-pandemic levels. And then in California, we're at about 45% below those pre-pandemic levels.
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:32:54)) - - So some of the big volume states, we're still waiting for the foreclosure volume to return. But if you look like at states like Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, places like that, Oklahoma, we are seeing that foreclosure auction volumes have returned to those pre-pandemic levels. So there are more opportunities in those areas, at least relative to their population and their their size of in terms of housing units.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:33:20)) - - So in general, in a lot of these upper Midwestern states, in northern Great Plains states, we see a greater foreclosure volume than we did pre-pandemic, because those levels are at over 100%, 100 being the pre-pandemic level. There is one aberration on your map, for one thing, Darren, and that is in Connecticut, where we have 306% of the foreclosure volume that we did pre-pandemic. That's over three x what's going on in Connecticut?
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:33:50)) - - I'm glad you pointed that out. I mean, that is part of the the issue with Connecticut is you do have relatively low foreclosure volumes there. So the 306% is coming off even pre-pandemic, some pretty low volumes of foreclosure.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:34:03)) - - We are seeing and I can't point to exactly what's happening there in terms of the economy, any other extra weakness in the economy or in the housing market there? But we are seeing definitely that's the top state in terms of where foreclosure volume is back way above, in fact, pre-pandemic levels. That was one of the areas, at least parts of Connecticut where the work from home trend maybe got a little bit out of control, and people were buying homes and willing to pay very high prices for homes that were who worked in New York City. And now we're thinking, well, I can work from Connecticut. In the country. There was probably more of a pandemic housing boom in Connecticut than some other areas of the country, and that may be part of the story that's going on there.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:34:54)) - - We're talking about the most densely populated part of the United States here, the tri state area, which is New York, Connecticut and New Jersey. And what's unusual is that one of those three states, new Jersey, is the antithesis of what's happening in Connecticut.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:35:09)) - - Connecticut has about three x the foreclosure volume than they did before the pandemic, and new Jersey is just 25%. They only have one quarter the foreclosure volume that they did before the pandemic. Are there any other tri state dynamics going on there with foreclosures there?
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:35:25)) - - That's a great observation. And one thing that becomes very important with foreclosures is the foreclosure process is governed by state law. It's not a federal national law that governs how the foreclosures work. And so you do see a lot of variation in the states based on how that foreclosure process works. And then also even how the the legislatures in those states have stepped in in some cases. And that's the case in new Jersey and created new laws even in the last couple of years to, for lack of a better word, stymie the foreclosure process and may put extra barriers in getting to foreclosure. And so, number one, new Jersey is what's called a judicial foreclosure state, where the foreclosure process is inherently longer than many states, including Connecticut. And then on top of that, the new Jersey legislature has enacted at least one law that took effect in January that even creates more barriers to foreclosure.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:36:22)) - - And we probably don't have time to get into the details of that law. But that's really, I think, what's it's less about that new Jersey is a much more healthy housing market than Connecticut. As to what you see there is the effects of the state governed foreclosure process with those numbers.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:36:40)) - - So just some great context for the listener and viewer here. The state jurisdiction in the judicial process has an awful lot to do with foreclosure volume. That's not necessarily indicative of the condition of its housing market.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:36:55)) - - That's right. And it does vary quite a bit. When we look at going forward at risk. We actually asked, so our clients are the banks, the mortgage servicers, the lenders who are foreclosing on these properties. And we ask them what they think is the highest risk of increasing foreclosures in the future. And the the top of their list was rising insurance and property taxes.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:37:22)) - - That's super interesting.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:37:23)) - - Yeah, and that's been a hot topic recently. I would put that at the top of my list of risks.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:37:29)) - - Going back to your question about why could the housing market experience weakness in the somewhat near future? I think this is the top of my list of as a catalyst that could potentially trigger weakness in the housing market, specifically home prices. Because of these variable costs of homeownership. You know, your mortgage is a fixed cost. You know what it's going to be every month, but your insurance and property taxes are variable costs. And there are in some states, those have skyrocketed. For some homeowners. This insurers are pulling out of states.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:02)) - - This is all such a great finding. Again, Darren's firm asked the survey question how much would you assign each of the following in terms of risk for higher delinquencies between now and the end of this year? And the number one answer is rising insurance and property taxes to Darren's point. That's because these are variable costs that everyone is subjected to. And we need to be mindful that more than 4 in 10 American homeowners are free and clear of their mortgage, so they don't have any payment.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:27)) - - So on a percentage basis, when you look at homeowners expenses, when they have rising insurance and property tax problems, you can see how this can increase foreclosures.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:38:38)) - - That's right. That's a great point. A couple other risks that ranked fairly high with our clients. We're rising consumer debt delinquencies so that we do see things like credit card debt and auto loan debt, specifically those two delinquencies on those types of more or loans, not mortgages, are rising quite quickly over the last few quarters. And so that's an area of risk that we're seeing. And then they put rising unemployment is third. But you know right. We're not seeing unemployment rise right now. And unemployment is very low. They put that a little bit lower on the list. Those two things to look out for are those rising insurance and property taxes. If we continue to see that be a problem, that could be a trigger that causes some fallout in the housing market, as well as if we continue to see those rising delinquencies on credit card and auto loan debt that could ripple out as well to the housing market.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:39:35)) - - It's really interesting. Higher property taxes are often a result of a homeowner's property having gone up in value. But if you own a paid off home and you're just going to continue to live there for the rest of your life, that rising property value that really doesn't help you so much, it actually might hurt you in a way, because you will have a commensurate increase in your property. Taxes, making it harder for you to live.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:39:57)) - - Yeah, that's right. It's a double edged sword there with the rising values. And usually it's, you know, property taxes is not an unbearable cost for most people. But when you're on the margins and you're just barely able to make your mortgage payment each month, and if you're in that situation, a fairly small rise in property taxes can make a big difference in whether you're able to continue to make those payments.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:40:21)) - - Yes. And then the rising insurance premiums, they've gone to X to three X on some homeowners in just a few years. It won't go up that much on a property taxes.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:40:30)) - - The insurance is there's been more of the problem recently, but property taxes are kind of layered on top of that. Moving on. I just wanted to land, I think really on getting back to that question of opportunity for investors out there and auction com buyers are typically fix and flip or you know, fix and rent investors. And so what they're doing is they're looking to buy these properties. And it usually takes maybe six months, 90 days to six months to renovate these properties and turn them around and sell them. And so one of the things we look at very carefully is, are the bidding behavior on our platform as an indicator of what's coming in the retail market, because our buyers are they're pretty good usually at anticipating what's going to be happening in their market over the next 3 to 6 months. Our buyers did pull back in their bidding behavior, they got more conservative and were willing to pay less. Back in 2022, when mortgage rates spiked. But it appears now that our buyers have gotten comfortable with this kind of higher for longer concept of interest rates.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:41:36)) - - Yeah, and our bidding behavior on our platform is mostly trending higher, meaning that our buyers are pretty confident that the housing market, despite, you know, I might have sounded a little doom and gloom, but our buyers are pretty confident that in their local market, they will continue to be able to buy these distressed homes at a discount. The metric we look at is what they're paying at auction, relative to the after repair value of the home, the estimated after repair value, and as of March of this year, that was at 59.8%. So they're buying at 60% of after repair value at 40. You could turn that around and call that a 40% discount. That number is, believe it or not, been trending up over the last few months. So they're willing to pay more, which indicates confidence in the housing market going forward. Historically, that's our bidders have been a good harbinger or indicator of what's to come in the retail market when they're more confident the retail market typically does well and vice versa.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:42:39)) - - You know, if we look at that by market, it's really interesting to see where our bidders are most confident about home prices going up in different markets. And we see a lot of confidence actually, the places where we see it's probably coincidental, but some of the places where we see higher foreclosure volume, as we talked about earlier, some of the upper Midwest Rust Belt areas are where we're seeing our buyers willing to pay more than they did a year ago relative to after repair value. So that's where they have a lot of confidence, actually, even out in California and most parts of Florida, they're still pretty confident. And Texas, there are some areas where our buyers are pulling back and and are paying less relative to after repair value. And there's kind of a cluster of markets in on the Gulf Coast, right? You know, in Mississippi, Alabama. And I don't know if that relates to insurance costs. I haven't made that connection solidly. That's an area where there has been rising insurance costs.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:43:39)) - - It varies quite a bit. There are some other markets mixed in across the country. Even though most of Florida, our buyers are pretty confident there is one area where they're they've become cautious, which is Cape Coral, Florida. They've pulled back in terms of what they're willing to bid.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:43:55)) - - Buyers for foreclosure properties still look overall quite confident in Florida. But yeah, like you touched on Darren, it's the lack of confidence to pay more for foreclosure properties in and around southern Louisiana. I know there's been some population loss there. And yes, like you touched on, they are more sensitive to insurance premium rises in Louisiana too.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:44:17)) - - That's right. So the takeaway is there's still the beauty of buying at that auction and distressed properties you are buying at a discount below after repair value. There's still a lot of risk involved because you may not know all that that's needed to renovate these properties, but you do have that. Rather than just counting on the housing market. Home price appreciation to increase to drive your profits, you have this component of added value.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:44:45)) - - So you're buying the property at a discount. And even at the housing, home prices don't go up in the next six months. By adding value to that property, you can still turn a profit because you're selling it for more than you bought it for. We have two types of auction on auction. Com there's the foreclosure auction, which we've talked a lot about, which comes at the end of the foreclosure process. And that's typically on the local courthouse steps. Although auction com in many counties allows you to bid remotely on your phone, we're we're pretty excited about that technology that we've introduced in the last couple of years. And then the second type of auction is if it doesn't sell at the courthouse steps foreclosure auction, it goes back to the bank as an REO. And we do the Ro auctions, which are mostly all online, and you can bid from anywhere. And it's pretty consistent between those two types of auctions. On average, at least over time, buyers are typically paying about 60% of after repair value, so about a 40% discount between after repair value.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:45:46)) - - Now, a lot of these homes need are in need of a lot of repair. But you have that type of discount available. And even though foreclosure volume has not come back to pre-pandemic levels, we're still seeing a consistent flow of that happening. There are certainly many markets, especially if you're willing to go off the beaten path a little bit in terms of markets where you can find inventory and also good discounts on these properties, especially if you're going to markets where maybe other investors aren't as aware of or aren't as interested in.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:46:18)) - - Therein. I wonder about local flavor. For those that bid through your platform on these distressed, foreclosed properties. Here we have a lot of investors that buy properties pretty passively where the property is already fixed up for you, maybe already held under management. And a lot of those investors, they go ahead and buy across state lines, because the best teals tend to be in the Midwest and Southeast and a few other pockets in places. So there are an awful lot of out of state investors.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:46:49)) - - On the passive side, what do you see for a breakdown of local investors in state investors and out-of-state investors through your platform for these distressed properties? I imagine it might be somewhat more localized than what I just described.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:47:01)) - - We do have some investors who are buying out of state, but actually the majority are buying in their backyard. Again, because these properties require their high touch, they require a lot of renovation. And so it's good to be local. It's definitely possible, especially with the REO properties where you can buy online. There is some more flexibility there if you have a crew, if you have boots on the ground in the market where you're buying, where you can do that, actually, the average distance between our buyers and the properties they buy is about 20 miles. I should say that's a median distance. So they're very local. There's definitely some exceptions to that you can buy across the country. But it is harder with these properties. These folks are very local. They know the markets they're operating in, and they know they have the resources in those markets to do the renovations.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:47:53)) - - Our buyers are probably a great resource for your students, Keith, to be able to tap into these types of local investors who have a supply of homes that they're creating, and sometimes they're selling back to owner occupants, you know, they're putting those properties on the market as renovated properties, and those might be good turnkey rental opportunities as well.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:48:17)) - - You know, that makes a lot of sense. And how your platform can help people not just find properties, but maybe network and find some like minded people that have tread where you're trying to go. Well, Darren, is there any last thing that you would like to tell us along with your online platform? Is there also perhaps an auction mobile app?
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:48:37)) - - Absolutely. We have an auction. Com app, and that's a great way to just either on on the website or on the app. You can go on and start searching. There's no subscription fee or anything like that to start looking and seeing where the opportunities are in the markets that you're interested in. You go to auction.com/in the news.
Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:48:57)) - - I actually end up talking to quite a few buyers of our buyers, and we've done some videos where we've gone and visited some of these buyers on location to see what they're doing, how they are operating on a human level. It's very interesting because these buyers are actually doing a lot of good in their communities. Many times by willing to take these down and out properties and down and out neighborhoods and renovate them, but also just on the level of understanding how this all works. That's a great resource. So that's auction.com/in the news and look for those videos featuring some of our buyers. I think that would be a great resource.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:49:33)) - - Well this has been great information to get an update on what's happening in the foreclosure market and where some of the local areas of opportunity might be as well, especially compared to pre-pandemic conditions. It's been valuable and it's been a pleasure having you here on the show. Thank you so much, Keith. Yeah. Good knowledge for foreclosure expert Darren Bloomquist today. It's when borrowers miss three months of mortgage payments.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:50:05)) - - That's that mark, where banks often begin foreclosure proceedings. Another thing that you learn is compared to pre-pandemic levels, national foreclosure levels are 10 to 20% lower today than they were then. And see with those that have a late mortgage payment or two, oftentimes that's not going all the way to foreclosure. They're getting caught up on their payments before it goes to foreclosure. And what's really going on here with that dynamic is that, see, today's homeowners, they are more motivated to stay caught up on their payments if they fall behind. And that's because they usually have a substantial positive equity position to protect. And the other factor is that if you lose your home today and you're locked in at a low pre 2022 mortgage rate, it's often going to cost you more per month to go out and rent somewhere else. So it's cheaper on a monthly basis to live in the home that you own. One piece that you might have learned is that high foreclosure activity in a state or city that is not necessarily indicative of that area's economic fortunes.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:51:10)) - - Instead, it might be tied to its judicial foreclosure process. Nationally, buyers are paying about 60% of after repair value for a foreclosure property. I just talked to Darren some more outside of today's interview, he discussed that foreclosure properties are often in opportunity zones, and if you don't know what they are, are designated distressed areas. That's where there are benefits given to you. If you invest specifically in that zone, you might remember that Opportunity Zones were part of Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. They have those zones in all 50 states. And Darren said that overall Opportunity zones are working next week here on the show. Properties are vanishing. Yeah, it is a real tweak to your investor mindset. Disappearing properties. Tune in next week as I cover. Properties are vanishing here on the show. If you haven't yet on your favorite pod catching app, be sure to subscribe or follow the show on your favorite app. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Windle. Don't quit your daydream.
Speaker Blomquist** ((00:52:23)) - - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.
Speaker Voice** ((00:52:27)) - - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.
Speaker Weinhold** ((00:52:51)) - - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.
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We’re joined by President Ronald Reagan’s Budget Director, David Stockman. He tells us what real estate investors and everyday people need to know.
Stockman served as Reagan’s Director of Office, Management and Budget from 1981 to 1985.
He tells us to expect higher inflation and interest rates for longer, maybe even the rest of the decade. Don’t expect rate cuts for a long time.
The US is moving toward an unsustainable debt situation, with $100T in public debt expected within twenty-five years. We have embedded deficits.
Learn why the recession has been postponed. David also reveals what will inevitably pull the trigger to potentially start the recession. Hint: Household budgets.
Pandemic stimulus programs gave citizens $3T. Half of it has now been spent.
He was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone.
David Stockman tells a story about President Reagan’s personal touch with him.
You can subscribe to David Stockman’s Contra Corner for free here.
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to our Ivory Coast, Keith Whitehill. There are some dire warning signs for the future of our economy. We're joined by none other than the father of Reaganomics. To break it down with us. Today is late. President Ronald Reagan's budget director joins us. When is this perpetually postponed recession coming? Why? Inflation and high interest rates could carry on for the rest of the decade. And what it all means to your finances and real estate today on get Rich education.
Robert Syslo (00:00:34) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from past real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.
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Keith Weinhold (00:01:35) - We're going to drive from Glen Burnie, Maryland, to Glen County, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Reinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. We're going bigger picture this week before we talk to President Reagan's money guy in the white House. Understand that today's guest was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone, and they are in the real estate business. You're going to get a lot of deep, uniquely qualified insights today. And I'll tell you what's going on around here. Lately, things have been feeling awfully presidential between last week's program and now this week's program. Hey. Stars and stripes forever. Semper fi. Rah! Now, as the greatest detonation in the history of the world, how in the heck are we, as the United States, going to keep financing our debt now, you can think of a treasury, also known as a bond, as an IOU, as we take on debt to fund our government spending programs.
Keith Weinhold (00:02:42) - Really, what we do is issue then these IOUs to the rest of the world and then down the road. We need to pay back these IOU holders, treasuries, holders, whatever we've borrowed with interest on top of that. That's a really simple way to describe how it works. Think of a Treasury as an IOU. Well, we have $9 trillion in treasuries that need to be rolled over at higher interest rates just this year alone. Okay. Well, how does the market look for that sort of thing? Well, a lot like before you decide to sell a piece of real estate, you would want to know how that buyer's market looks. How is the buyer's market for us selling more treasuries, which is basically us issuing more IOUs? How is that world interest level in our treasuries? Well, this is a time when the world is selling treasuries. We're trying to get rid of them. Well, why would they buy more when we keep printing like crazy, debasing the dollars that they will eventually get their treasuries repaid in down the road? Case in point, China is down to just over 700 billion of treasuries that they're holding.
Keith Weinhold (00:04:01) - Well, they were 3 trillion not too long ago, more than four times that Russia and Iran sold all of their treasuries. Other countries are shedding them too, like Japan. It gets even worse than that because the number one holder of our own debt is our own fed. And then it gets even worse than that. Yet, because even our own fed is rolling treasuries off of their balance sheet. So who is going to finance this often irresponsible US spending the 10 trillion or $11 trillion every single year for the next ten years that we have obligations toward already, and it looks like all those are going to be at higher interest rates, too. Now, I am not telling you how to think about us as the United States, for example, sending foreign aid to multiple nations. That's up to you to decide whether it's Ukraine or the Middle East or Taiwan that gets political. And that is beyond the scope of GR. We are an investing show. What I'm saying is that backdrop that I just gave you, that's something that you need to take into consideration, is you weigh those foreign aid decision types.
Keith Weinhold (00:05:20) - Speaking of getting worse, do we at least have competent decision makers today? Now, as we'll talk to the father of Reaganomics here shortly, someone that served in an earlier era. Here's a clip from this era that really went viral lately, but it's apropos to play it here. This is Jared Bernstein today. He chairs President Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisers. How much confidence does this instill? And remember, this guy chairs the economic advisers to today's president.
Jared Bernstein (00:05:56) - The US government can't go bankrupt because we can print our own money.
Voice (00:06:00) - Like you said, they print the dollar. So why? Why does the government even borrow?
Jared Bernstein (00:06:04) - Well, the, so the I mean, again, some of this stuff gets some of the language that the, some of the language and concepts are just confusing. I mean, the government definitely prints money and it definitely lends that money, which is why the government definitely prints money. And then it lends that money by, by selling bonds. Is that what they do? They they, the.
Jared Bernstein (00:06:34) - Yeah. They, they they sell bonds. Yeah. They sell bonds. Right. Because they sell bonds and people buy the bonds and lend them the money. Yeah. So a lot of times, a lot of times at least to my year with MMT, the, the language and the concepts can be kind of unnecessarily confusing. But there is no question that the government prints money and then it uses that money to so, yeah, I guess I'm just I don't, I can't really, I don't, I don't get it. I don't know what they're talking about.
Keith Weinhold (00:07:08) - Well geez. How's that for clarity and confidence from today's major decision makers on our economy? Gosh. Now, in my opinion, back in 2020, our government, they set up the wrong incentive structure to deal with the pandemic. Remember things like the PGP, the Paycheck Protection Program, remember mortgage loan forbearance and the eviction moratorium. See when that type of aid is given, well, then the result is that citizens don't learn that they need to keep some cash handy, and then that behavior that gets rewarded gets repeated in that behavior is handouts.
Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - And then the expectation for more handouts. 56% of Americans don't even have $1,000 for an emergency expense. Well, see, they're not really incentivized to in the future. If in a crisis, everyone just gets another taxpayer funded handout, but then see those same people that got that handout get hurt in the long run. Anyway, with the longer run inflation that the handout created, don't let there be one day of austerity for the least prepared American, I guess. Instead, bail them out and add on to everyone's debt load, which you know that right there. That seems to be the playbook. Like that is the protocol of the day that is not responsible, in my view. Now, the minutes of the latest fed meeting, they said that some fed officials would be open to raising interest rates if inflation doesn't let up. I mean, that news alone that sent stocks plunging like they were riding the Tower of Terror, giving the Dow its worst day in a while. I'll discuss that more with the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, today.
Keith Weinhold (00:09:01) - It's the kind of episode that can stretch your thinking here. Now, what is Reaganomics? Well, one thing that you should know is that it's committed to the doctrine of supply side economics. You probably heard that term before. And really what that's all about is lowering taxes, decreasing regulation, and allowing free trade and what was called the Reagan budget. That's something that his budget director Stockman expected would help curtail the welfare state. And he gained a reputation as a tough negotiator for that. He lives on the Upper East Side of Manhattan today, and it's kind of funny with macroeconomic discussions. You'll notice something here, the word million, that doesn't even come up that much anymore. It's simply a number that is too small. It is more like billion and trillion. And hey, let's see if the term three orders of magnitude above trillion comes up today. Quadrillion, or even the one after that quintillion. Is that where we're going next? We'll see. before we meet David Simon, I've gotten more questions about something, because the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.
Keith Weinhold (00:10:18) - And where do you really get a decent yield on your savings, even beyond the 5% in an online only savings account or a CD, which that does not outpace true inflation? For years now, I've reliably been getting 8%. What I do is keep my dollars in a private liquidity fund. You can do this to your cash generates up to an 8% return. The minimum investment amount is just 25 K, and you keep getting paid until you decide that you want your money back. And the private liquidity fund has a decade plus track record, and they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know this because I am an investor with them myself. So see what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other great listeners are any investing involves risk, even dollars at a brick and mortar bank. So to learn more, just text the word family to 66866. Learn more about the liquidity fund. Get 8% interest. Just do it right now while you're thinking about it.
Keith Weinhold (00:11:23) - Text family to 66866. Let's meet David Stockman. A Wall Street and Washington insider and Harvard grad. Today's guest is a former two time congressman from Michigan, a prolific author, and he is none other than the man known as the father of Reaganomics. He was indeed President Ronald Reagan's budget advisor. Welcome to the show, David Stockman.
David Stockman (00:11:54) - Great to be with you. And, that was a while back. But I think there's some lessons from that time that we would be well advised to try to apply today, that's for sure.
Keith Weinhold (00:12:05) - Well, it's an illustrious title that you'll never shake. It's a pleasure to have you here. And David is a real estate investing show. At times we need to step back and look at the bigger picture. And now on the economy, one seems to get a different answer depending on who they speak with. You have a highly qualified opinion. What do both investors and citizens need to know today about the condition of the American economy?
David Stockman (00:12:29) - I don't think the outlook is very promising, but I think it's important to understand what that means for real estate investors, because the fact is, if you're in real estate and I know many of your listeners or viewers are very knowledgeable and sophisticated, there's really two ways to look at real estate.
David Stockman (00:12:49) - One is as a property that generates a flow of cash or income that is highly reliable, and that you can count on and produces a rate of return on the invested capital that's attractive. That's one way. The second way is that if you invest at the right time, when perhaps interest rates are falling and therefore multiples or cap rates are becoming more attractive and property values are rising rapidly, mainly because of easy money and lower interest rates, then there's a huge opportunity for capital gains. As another way of generating return on capital. But those are two obviously very different tracks. The capital gains route by old invest, improve flip flop the gain and move on or the, you know, income based rent and earnings based, approach to property. Now, I think the reason I went through this is pretty elementary, of course, is that the macro environment is very different between the first strategy and the second strategy. And therefore, the important thing to understand about the macro environment is which environment are you in and is it conducive to strategy a the income strategy or b the capital gains strategy? I would say right now we're totally in an incomes strategy environment, the first route.
David Stockman (00:14:34) - And that's because as we've gone through several decades of easy money, of rapidly rising asset values, of ultra low interest rates, very high multiples, in terms of property values to income that has generated trillions and trillions of capital gains for smart real estate investors. But I think we're out of that environment, and we're in an environment now where we're stuck with massive public debt and deficits. We're stuck with a, central bank that is, basically painted itself into a corner, created so much fiat credit, generated so much liquidity into the economy that now it will be struggling with inflation for years to come. Which means, notwithstanding Wall Street's constant belief that rate cuts are coming tomorrow, there won't be rate cuts for a long time to come. And what we're facing, therefore, there is likely higher rates for longer. A environment in which property values are flat if not declining, and therefore the capital gains route is not going to work very well. But if you have good properties with good tenants and good cash flows and, rental flows, real estate mine works out pretty well.
David Stockman (00:16:05) - But you have to understand the macro environment. And that's one of the things that I work on daily when I, publish my daily newsletter, which is called, David Stockman's Contra Corner.
Keith Weinhold (00:16:19) - You can learn more about Contra Corner, David's blog, before we're done today. David, you have a lot of interesting things to say. There we are in this environment where rates have been higher, longer. It sounds like you believe that is going to continue to be the. Case is rate cuts will be postponed is a little more difficult question. It's some crystal ball stuff. But can you tell us more about that? What can we expect for inflation in interest rates for the rest of this 2020s decade, which has about six years to go?
David Stockman (00:16:48) - There's going to be high rates for most of this decade because we have so much inflation and excess demand built into the economy. We really went overboard, especially after 2020 with the pandemic lockdowns and then these massive stimulus program, something like $6 trillion of added stimulus, was injected into the economy in less than 12 months.
David Stockman (00:17:16) - That created a undertow of inflation that is still with us. And despite all the hopeful commentary that comes from Wall Street, if you look at it year to date, I don't look at just the CPI because the headline number is somewhat volatile and can be pushed and pulled a lot from a month to month based on nonrecurring conditions. But if you look at something called the 16% trimmed mean CPI, it's just the same CPI, but it takes out the lowest 8%, the highest 8% of price observations each month out of the thousands in the market basket. What it does is basically takes the extreme volatility out of the top and the bottom, and gives you a trend that is more reliable if you're looking like on a quarter by quarter or year by year or even multi year basis, well, I mentioned this is important because the trim means CPI is still running at about 4.3% during the first four months of this year to date. That's not a victory over inflation. That's double what the fed says his target is. And frankly, the Fed's target is a little bit phony.
David Stockman (00:18:35) - I mean, what's so great about 2% inflation if you're a saver and your savings are, you know, shrinking by 30% over the course of a decade, so they're going to have a tremendous wrestling match with inflation, not just for a few more months, but I think for several more years in this decade, I don't see the federal funds rate, which is kind of the benchmark rate for overnight money coming down below 5% very soon, or if at all. And that's because with inflation running at 4% or better, if you have a 5% money market rate, you're barely getting a return on capital, especially if you factor in taxes. You know, it's like it's a rounding error and that doesn't work over time. I mean, you're not going to get long term savings. You're not going to get long term capital investment. If the return is after inflation and taxes are either non-existent or negative, as they've been for quite a while. So even though everybody would like to hope we're going back to the good old days of 0% over 90 money or 1% money, which they got so used to over the last couple of decades.
David Stockman (00:19:55) - It was bad policy. It wasn't sustainable. It caused a huge amount of bubbles and distortions in our economy. But once we finally got to the end of that in March 2022, when the fed had to finally pivot and say, yeah, inflation isn't transitory, it's, embedded, we got to do something about it. People think we're going right back to where we were, and that's the key thing to understand. We are not going right back to where we were, in part because of all this inflation business I've talked about, but also in part because they got so used to borrowing money on Capitol Hill and practically zero interest rates that they are now, you know, they have built in deficits of 2 trillion or more a year. And, we are going to be pushing into the bond pits, massive amounts of new government debt. There's no consensus to do anything about it. You know, if the Republicans talk about reforming the entitlements, the Democrats say you're throwing grandma out the snow. If the Democrats talk about raising revenue, the Republicans talked about, you're going to get slaughtered with higher taxes.
David Stockman (00:21:12) - And then everybody's for more wars and more defense and the bigger and bigger national security budget. And that's all she wrote. If you don't do with revenue, you don't do it national defense and entitlements. The rest of it is rounding errors. And so we're stuck with these massive additions to the debt. Now, everybody knows the public debt. Is 34 trillion. Ready? Yeah. What I'd say they don't understand is that by the end of this decade, you ask about the decade, right? Will we close to 60 trillion of debt. And, if you look at the last CBO, projection they do every year at long term projection, and CBO actually is more optimistic than it is warranted in any way. In other words, their long term assumptions I call rosy scenario. There's no more recessions for the next couple of decades. Inflation is well-behaved, interest rates stay low. Full employment lasts indefinitely and forever. Well, this doesn't happen. Look at the real world. Over the last 20 or 30 years, we've been all over the lot.
David Stockman (00:22:18) - So if you look at the CBO forecast, which is I'm just saying here is exceedingly optimistic. They never are the less are projecting that the public debt and they don't even write this number down in their report because it's too scary, will be $100 trillion before the middle of this century.
Keith Weinhold (00:22:41) - That's a.
David Stockman (00:22:42) - Trillion. Yeah. Now, if you ask people today who are market savvy, I like a lot of your viewers. Where are the Treasury bills, notes and bonds today? Well, if you average it all out, it's about 5%. I don't think it's going to come down much. It'll vary a little bit up and down over time, but let's just say it stays at 5%. That means the carry cost of the public debt of a couple decades will be 5 trillion a year. The interest okay. It's staggering. That's almost as much as the whole federal budget is spending this today at, you know, about 6.6 6.7 trillion. So that's where we're heading, a massive debt crisis because they built in a structural deficit that the politicians and I call it the unite party.
David Stockman (00:23:33) - They fight about silly things, but they agree on the big things which are leading to this outcome. The unit party has no ability to do anything about this structural deficit or the march from the 34 trillion that we're at today to 60 trillion by the end of the decade, and 100 trillion of public debt by mid-century. Now, for a real estate investor, that's probably the most important number you're going to hear. You know, at least this week or maybe this month or even this year, because what it means is that the amount of new government debt flowing into the bond pits, that'll have to be financed and that can't be monetized by the fed anymore because there's too much inflation, is going to put constant, enormous pressure upward on interest rates. And of course, higher interest rates mean lower property values. That's just basic real estate math. That's the environment we're heading into, which means good properties with good income and good rental flows are really the only way to go.
Keith Weinhold (00:24:55) - Yeah, well, there's an awful lot there.
Keith Weinhold (00:24:57) - And with this persistent higher inflation that you expect, the way I think about it is the higher the rate of inflation, the more that moves a person's dollars out of a savings account and instead out onto the risk curve. Well, David alluded to a problematic economy. We're going to come back and talk about more of those warning signs and what you can do about it. You're listening to Get Resuscitation, the father of Reaganomics and Ronald Reagan's budget director, David Stockman, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.
Speaker 7 (00:26:06) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream.
Keith Weinhold (00:26:23) - Welcome back to Get Ready. So we're talking with the father of Reaganomics. His name is David Stockman, President Reagan's budget advisor. David, you've been talking about a problematic economy and places we can look and the outcomes that that can create. Why don't we talk about some more of those where we're here in a period where we feel like it's an official recession postponed, for example, are there other places that we should be looking? Is it the sustained inverted yield curve that we had for almost two years, the longest one ever, and a Great Recession predictor? Or is it that we're on the precipice of implosion from a debt to GDP ratio that's at 122%. It actually spiked to 133% when Covid first hit. Or for example, is it something and you've already touched on it a bit, is it more of that federal spending on our debts, interest payments alone each year, which had almost $900 billion for that interest line item that now even exceeds the massive $800 billion that we spend each year on national defense, or should we be looking at somewhere else? So what's out there that's really problematic and what's overblown?
David Stockman (00:27:28) - Okay.
David Stockman (00:27:29) - That's great. And all of those things you mentioned you should be looking at, it depends on your time frame. But I think on the initial question, where is this postponed recession? Why hasn't that happened? The place to look is somewhere that I think most Wall Street analysts aren't focused on, but they should be. And that's a series published by the Federal Reserve that tracks household balance sheets, in other words, liabilities and assets. But there's a particular series that I think is critically important to look at, and it's basically bank deposits, checking account savings accounts plus money market funds. This is all the liquid cash accounts of the household sector, not long term investments in real estate or stocks or bonds, but the short term money. It's the spendable money that households have now, what happened during the pandemic and lockdowns. And then the 6 trillion Is stems that were injected into the economy, like some kind of fiscal madness was going on in Washington, created a total aberration in the amount of cash in the economy, in the household sector, in these accounts that I just mentioned, normally right before the lockdown started and the stimulus was injected, you know, the level of cash accounts was about 12 trillion.
David Stockman (00:29:00) - Within two years it was up to 18 trillion. And normally that cash balance grows about the same rate as the economy. In other words, as incomes go up, people save a small share of their income that goes into various bank accounts. There tends to be a lock step relationship. But what happened during that two year period was there was so much extra cash sent out to the households with the $2,000 checks in the $600 a week extra stimulus money, and then the, trillions that went, you know, for things like the Small Business Administration loan program, which was all forgivable, was about almost upwards of $1 trillion. You know, we could itemize all the others. But this enormous government, unusual cash flow into the economy added to these bank accounts enormously. And then something else happened. The geniuses in Washington, led by Doctor Fauci, decided to shut down half of the service sector, the economy. I'm talking with restaurants and bars and gyms, malls and movies and and all the rest of it.
David Stockman (00:30:09) - So all of a sudden, the normal money that people would have been spending on the service venues, which is a big part of total spending, was stopped. It was kind of forced into artificial savings, sort of government mandated savings. Now, if you put the two together, there was about 2 trillion, extra transfer payments sent out to the public during that two year period. And there was a little over a trillion of normal service spending, restaurants in, etc. that didn't happen because there was a closed sign on the door, compliments of Doctor Fauci, or people were scared to death to go out because, you know, they created all this fear that Covid was some form of black death, which it really wasn't for 95% of the population. In any event, if you put the extra free stuff from the government, 2 trillion and the for savings because of these lockdowns, trillion, you have 3 trillion of unusual cash that flowed into the economy on top of the normal production. Income and profits and spending that would have otherwise gone on.
David Stockman (00:31:26) - Now that 3 trillion temporarily ended up in this account, that I'm just talking about the cash balances of the household sector and its peak, there was about 2.8 trillion extra compared to what would been be the normal case in a regular economy. In a normal economy, that money has been slowly spent down by the household sector, even as the fed has tried to put the screws to the economy. In other words, there was so much extra cash in the system that even as the fed raised interest rates from 0 to 5% and did their darndest to slow things down, all of that excess that was built up during the pandemic period was available to spend. It was spent. And here's the key point. About half of it is now been spent. In other words, there's only about a trillion and a half of the nearest 3 trillion left. Now that is what's delayed the recession. If that big, massive 3 trillion nest egg had been there and the fed began to push rates up as it normally did in a normal cycle, we would have been in recession months ago.
David Stockman (00:32:41) - But what has delayed or deferred the recession is this, cushion, this huge macro piggybank of cash that the government inadvertently or adversely is the case may be generated, during the pandemic period. So that's new. See that? Nobody looks at that because normally it's not a factor. You know, the cash balances are a pretty, prosaic, neutral part of the economy. They're not where you look for the leading edge of where the cycle was going or where new developments may turn up tomorrow. But this time, because of this total aberration of what happened to government transfer payments plus the lockdowns, we have a, X factor, let's call it in the macro picture that is confusing people. It's leading a lot of people to abdicate this no landing scenario. In other words, you know, there's not going to be a recession. We're just going to go on to bigger and better things. And, the fed will get inflation under control and then we can be back to happy times again. No, they're missing.
David Stockman (00:33:56) - The elephant in the room is this massive aberrational unusual one time cash balance that was, generated by these policies. And that still has a little ways to go now. I think at the rate it's being run down, you can almost calculate it a couple hundred billion dollars, a quarter sometime next year, all of that extra cash will be out of the system. And then people will be back to spending only what they're earning. And frankly, earnings they're not. I'm talking about wage and salary earnings, are advancing barely at the inflation rate at the present time. So when we get back to about zero real growth in earnings, we're going to finally see the recession.
Keith Weinhold (00:34:45) - I think one of the big takeaways here is that all these artificial economic injections really take time to unwind.
David Stockman (00:34:56) - Exactly. You have to look at, you know, they always say, well, when the government changes policy, fiscal policy, you tighten or you loosen or monetary policy they raise or lower interest rates. They got QE or they got cute putting money in or taking money out that there's lag and lead times in all of this.
David Stockman (00:35:18) - The problem is, none of the great economic gurus who talk about this really know whether the lag time is 12 months, 25 months, 50 or 5, and it varies. I mean, the circumstance has changed so much in a world GDP of 104 trillion, a domestic economy with 28 trillion of GDP, and all the complex factors that are moving back and forth in today's world, especially as it's enabled by technology and global trade and the internet and all the rest of it, nobody knows the lag times. And as a result, it's very hard to predict when the, brown stuff is going to hit the fan, so to speak. On the other hand, you don't have to know the exact date. You really need to understand the direction, the flow of things. And if you're in an environment that isn't sustainable because you're borrowing like crazy or interest rates or artificially. Low or stock price multiples are way the L2 ie or cap rates on real estate or you know, abnormally low. Then what you have to say is we're going to a different state.
David Stockman (00:36:35) - It's not going to be as conducive as the current state, and we have to be prepared for it, even if we are not sure whether that's 12 months from now or 24 months. But it's going to change. So one thing you can be sure of, there is a famous economist back in my day when I worked on Capitol Hill earlier on, he was Nixon's chief economic adviser in the early 70s. And he famously formulated an aphorism, I guess, which said anything that is unsustainable tends to stop. Okay, that's what I know about the lag times. We're in unsustainable financial, fiscal and monetary environment. And the trends that it has given rise to are going to stop and and not in a good way.
Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - He even fed Chair Jerome Powell has confessed as much as that. This situation is indeed unsustainable, the exact word that he used. Well, David, this has been great in winding down as Ronald Reagan's budget director. Can you share any anecdote, story or quote from you spending time personally with Ronald Reagan? And the reason I ask is because he is perhaps the most revered president of the past few generations.
Keith Weinhold (00:37:52) - That might mean a lot to our listeners here.
David Stockman (00:37:54) - He should be revered, and not only because he was a great president and a great communicator, and did a lot of important things in policy. Some of them got implemented, and a lot of them were frustrated by Washington and the politicians and the Democrats and everybody else. But also, he was a great human being. And my story about that was when I was budget director, in the fifth year of the Reagan administration, we had our first child, and my wife was in the hospital. At that point in time, President Reagan was in Europe on a very important big international, series of meetings. But, somebody in the white House told him that our daughter had been born. And so he took the time out of his schedule for a call from Germany, the hospital where my wife was, and said he would like to talk to her and, congratulate us on our new arrival. But my wife was in a room with another, a new mother.
David Stockman (00:38:53) - She the other person answered the phone and she said to my wife, there's some joker on the phone with President Reagan. And sure enough, he was there. and he took the time to congratulate my wife. And, so that's the kind of, person he was. He really was a great human being.
Keith Weinhold (00:39:13) - Wow. Yeah. That really shows that he can still be warm and heartfelt, even while doing some key international negotiations there. Potentially. Well, we mentioned it earlier. I can tell you, the audience, that David is a regular author and contributor to his Contra Corner blog and letter, and you can get access to that for free. This is information coming from the father of Reaganomics to you. If you think you would find it a value. David, tell us how our audience can connect with you there.
David Stockman (00:39:44) - Just Google David Stockman Contra corner I publish, I have a website, issues a newsletter every day. It comes automatically in the email. I also have a Substack version. You can sign up for either one, the email from my site or from Substack.
David Stockman (00:40:02) - And every day we try to publish something on these issues that we've been talking about. One day it might be Wall Street, another day it might be Capitol Hill, another day it might be, you know, the war in Ukraine. All of these things matter. All of these things influence the environment that investors have to function in. So we try to comment on a variety of those issues based on, you know, the long experience that I've had, both not only in Washington, but also I was on Wall Street, for about 20 years. I was one of the founding partners of Blackstone, for instance. And we were in the real estate business in a major way, even then.
Keith Weinhold (00:40:44) - Well, we absolutely love that. And I sure am appreciative of your time. It was great connecting with you. And thanks for being on the program today, David.
David Stockman (00:40:53) - Very good. Enjoyed it.
Keith Weinhold (00:41:01) - Yeah. Deep insights from the father of Reaganomics. Stockman thinks we'll be struggling with inflation for years to come.
Keith Weinhold (00:41:08) - There won't be rate cuts for a long time. He sees real estate values as flat or declining, so have good tenants with steady income streams. Of course, in our favoured real estate segment here, residential 1 to 4 units where you can get 30 year fixed rate debt. Higher mortgage rates tend to correlate with higher prices, just like it has for the last three years and almost every period before that too. But there could be more pain for the commercial sector then, and assets that are tied to floating rate debt. And if you're aligned with David Stockman on that, you might want to look at your helocs, because after a fixed rate period, their rates tend to float along with the fed funds rate. So be cautious with Helocs and ask David for specifics. He doesn't see the federal funds rate coming down below 5% anytime soon, and you probably know that is the interest rate that a whole bunch of other interest rates are based off of. And that rate is currently at about 5.3%. By the way, there is projected to be more than 100 t more than $100 trillion of public debt before the middle of this century.
Keith Weinhold (00:42:22) - That's less than 25 years away. I mean, these figures just become unfathomable sometimes. Pandemic wrought inflation that really occurred due to this greater supply of dollars that was introduced chasing a reduced supply of goods. And there were fewer goods because people got paid to stay at home not producing anything. Plus, what had been produced often could not be shipped either. David discussed the 16% trimmed mean CPI, and I've got to say, as much as I am a student devotee in studying inflation, I had never heard of that from his vantage point to find recession signs, look at household balance sheets and what's delayed the recession is that those pandemic measures put an extra 3 trillion bucks into households, and households still have about 1.5 trillion left to spend, which could further delay a recession. He projects that it's sometime next year that all of that extra cash will be out of the system. When you talk to how many people got this recession predictions so horribly wrong? Back in October 2022, Bloomberg Economics forecast a 100% chance of a recession by the following fall, which is almost a year ago now.
Keith Weinhold (00:43:48) - Well, a 100% chance that left no room for anything else to happen. And they really whiffed on that one. Now, you know, I've got to add something here. A personal note if I can, but I'll give you a lesson along with it. And that is that at times like today, where I found myself one degree of separation from one of the most revered presidents in all of American history, I sometimes have some difficulty understanding how I keep having the opportunity to share time with people like today's guest. Now, I'm certainly not a PhD economist. And in fact, on the flip side, I've also never been a person that's been so poor and destitute that I was dying of hunger. But I do come from a modest place. When I flew the coop and left my parents home, I rented my first pathetic place to live a $325 a month pool house in the back of my landlord's property at 852 Spruce Avenue in Westchester, Pennsylvania. Yeah, a pathetic little pool house right next to the landlord's swimming pool.
Keith Weinhold (00:45:04) - I mean, I was living really pathetically there for a while as I was struggling just to do things like find gainful employment and figure out the world and find a steady income. Yeah, it was 325 a month plus electric and the one small heater that was there, it was electric and it was really expensive to run. And on the coldest days, it wouldn't even adequately heat my pathetic little pool house that I ended up living in for 18 months. And just because I couldn't figure a way out of that situation for a while, I mean, I was too ashamed to ever bring a girl back there to that sad pool house. It was just one sink for the whole place. Combined kitchen and bathroom sink in the bathroom. I mean, most of my friends, they got their driver's license at age 16 and they soon had their own car. I didn't own a car until I was aged 22 or 23, and it's not because I lived in an urban area and walked. Everywhere use public transit there in Pennsylvania.
Keith Weinhold (00:46:02) - It just took me a long time to afford a beater car and pay for insurance. I really needed a car and couldn't afford one. So really my point here is that sometimes I have to wonder how I got here from there. And I think what it is is taking an interest in real estate and investing. And despite just having a humble bachelor's degree in geography, it's really about becoming an autodidact, meaning self-taught. And it's easy to teach yourself when you find what interests you. And let me point to two other things besides adopting an auto didactic ethic to help me turn the corner into being in a place where I can have conversations like the one that I've had today. It was getting around aspirational friends. Like I've mentioned before, that showed me how I can start with a bang buy with little money. On my first home, I could put a 3.5% down payment on a fourplex, live in one unit and rent out the other three. And I will give myself some credit for doing those things. And then really, the third thing is that stroke of luck element, like just 4% of world inhabitants have been.
Keith Weinhold (00:47:15) - I was one of that 4% that was born in the United States. And then I had two great, married, stable, supportive parents to cultivate the right environment for me. And well, today was just one of those days where I sort of nudged myself and I'm glad that it happened. Most importantly, I trust that you got value from today's show and that you do every single week here. Check out David Stockman's Contra Corner. Next week, we'll look for signs of distress in real estate as we delve inside the foreclosure market and how you can find discounted deals there. Until then, Idaho's Keith Wayne hold don't quit your day trip.
Speaker 8 (00:48:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. The.
Keith Weinhold (00:48:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building.
Keith Weinhold (00:48:34) - Get rich education.com.
-
We’ve already had more inflation in this young 2020s decade than the entire 2010s.
If the next forty years have as much inflation as the last forty, gas will cost $13.38 per gallon, the average home $1.88 million, and the average rent $59,000 annually.
Inflation impoverishes most people. You can profit from it 3 ways at the same time. Watch the free 3-part video series: GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is a uniquely American construct. It virtually exists nowhere else in the world. I compare this to mortgage terms in Europe, Canada and Australia.
In much of the world, homeowners have had their mortgage payments double overnight!
Trends that won’t soon be disrupted: more inflation, people need to live somewhere, there aren’t enough places to live. That’s so simple! Invest in it.
Rents are increasing the most where little new supply has been added.
There’s a myth that gigantic institutional investors are gobbling up all the single-family rental homes. But they only own 3% of the market. Mom & pops own 80%.
Single-family rents are up 3.4% per CoreLogic. Detached SFHs are up more than attached types.
Property prices and rents are positively correlated. Some people falsely think that they move inversely.
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Complete episode transcript:
Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Learn how the misery of INFLATION is altering BOTH your quality of life and the return on ALL of your investments…
… also, many people are now having their mortgage payments DOUBLE overnight and IT’S creating pain, then, what are the factors affecting the future direction of RENTS - all that, and more, today on Get Rich Education!
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Welcome to GRE! You’re listening to one of the longest-running and most listened-to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold - the voice of RE since 2014.
I don’t know if you fully realize how much inflation is steering all of your investments - and it’s emphatic at a time like this when the dollar is down 25% cumulatively just in the last four years. Gosh!
And I’ve got some jaw-dropping inflation fact to share with you soon.
We’ll get to inflation’s RE affects shortly. But here’s what I mean.
In stocks, they keep riding up on a wave of optimism, anticipating a Fed interest rate cut - largely due to future INFLATION expectations. Yes, there’s jobs & GDP and some other factors.
But the stock market - which is a FORWARD-looking market - it moves based on what’s expected to happen 6 to 12 months from now.
STOCK investors know that rate cuts open the floodgates to get us closer to the “easy money” days again.
That’s why - as backwards as it is, the worse the economy looks, the lower that inflation tends to be, and then, in turn, the lower that interest rates can go, which the stock market likes.
So a worsening economy often pumps up the stock market. Soooo backwards.
Just look at what happens historically. Recessions sound bad. Yet what happens is that rates get cut in a recession - because the economy needs the help.
But nearer-term, it’s this ongoing expectation of the rate cut - that’s been looming out there for months but hasn’t happened - which CAN keep propelling the stock market to higher highs. It’s already hit all-time highs here recently. You can make the CASE that stocks should keep floating higher from here… based on that premise.
Before we look at real estate & inflation. Understand this.
Inflation has already widened the divide between the affluent and the deprived. That divide has gone from a gully to a canyon.
But... my gosh! Here’s the stat that I want to share with you. And you’re really going to get a sense for the gravity of what you’re living through this decade.
We've already seen more inflation in the first 51 months of the 2020s decade than in the ENTIRE decade of the 2010s. Already.
This gets really interesting. Let’s look at about the last four decades here.
Alright, in the 1990s decade, America had 34% cumulative inflation. Let’s go ahead and… we’ll associate this decade with President Bill Clinton.
We won’t tie any President to the inflation number because there are lag effects and other factors. A President really can’t take the credit or blame, in most cases. Just marking the era here.
So, 34% inflation in the 1990s.
The 2000s decade saw the GFC and… 29% inflation. Most of those were George W. Bush years.
The 2010s decade saw lower inflation → Just 19%. So that’s under 2% a year. These were mostly the Obama years here in the 2010s.
Little flex there from the former Commander in Chief.
Then the 2020s decade → have seen, like I alluded to, and under Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. - yes, as the oldest sitting president ever, it’s easy to forget that he’s a “junior. In this young 2020s decade, we have, 21% cumulative inflation. Already.
So this figure is after just the first 51 months of this decade, if we’re counting from 2020… and this is largely due to supply shortages from the COVID pandemic.
So 21% ALREADY this decade… and just 19% ALLLL of last decade which was a full decade. That’s the impact.
That’s reflective of what you see in home prices and rent prices and utilities, transportation, labor, and almost every facet of your life.… and what you see in your weekly Costco bill and Trader Joe’s bill.
Who have we left out here? A one-term president, so far? Does somebody feel left out.
Yes, that is the actual person of one Donald John Trump.
Psssshhh!
All of those figures I cited are from the BLS, and I’ve been rounding to nearest whole percent.
But get this! Inflation over the next forty years could make the LAST 40 years seem like a picnic.
That's partly because we're $35T in debt and that figure now grows by $1T every single quarter… every 90 to 100 days. So we MUST keep dollar-printing to help pay it back.
But just, if the last forty years repeats itself, by the year 2064, which is the next forty years, we'll see these prices. Prepare for a future that looks like this:
Gas at $13.38 per gallon
The home price at $1.88 million
Average rent at $59,000 per year
And the average salary at $104,000
That is if inflation over the next 40 years, looks like that last 40 years.
Also, note how salaries don't keep pace with prices. That $104K average salary in the year 2064 doesn’t sound as high-flying as those other figures.
Well, this is all really frustrating for consumers… and even debilitating to one’s standard of living. Remember, this latest wave of inflation brought us the biggest YOY increase in homelessness - based on HUD figures.
and why you need to invest in something that reliably BENEFITS from inflation and pays you an income at the same time.
Look, here’s really, the deal. Dollars are abundant. So then isn’t it a paradox that a major spike in the supply of dollars would create more homelessness?
Well, you know that dollars are there for your taking - because so many more have been brought into existence. Dollars are abundant. So as they cycle through the economy, rather than going through the consumer motions, you can build your diverter. That’s where the world of abundance exists, so get into that flow.
Ultimately, REAL capital is scarce. Your time and energy are scarce. Natural resources are scarce. Labor is scarce.
What’s frustrating is that money ought to reflect that scarcity if it is going to accurately convey the value that enables people to make capital accumulation decisions.
And alas, we’re doing our measuring in dollars and the dollar is not remotely scarce.
The middle class and poor often have wages that don't track inflation, yet they disproportionately suffer the higher consumer prices.
The investor class owns assets that float up with inflation. And GRE listeners will do even better than that.
As income property owners with mortgages, we're winning three ways at the same time with the Inflation Triple Crown. That’s your dollar diverter.
Alright, so that’s longer-term inflation. I’ve been talking in terms of decades - both the past and with an extrapolation into the future to 2064 there - and it’s really rather sobering.
Well, what's the more CURRENT inflation situation? The situationship? Ha! What’s the situationship now?
In trying to quiet it down to their 2% target, the Fed has run into so many hurdles that you'd think they were training for this summer's Olympics in Paris.
After it peaked over 9% two full years ago now, inflation’s been bouncing near 3-and-a-half-percent for a year and they just keep having trouble getting it lower than that.
Hmmm... would we say that this could turn into Jerome Powell's three-quarters life crisis? We’ll see.
Rising inflation is one of the key factors that brought down the Roman Empire. They famously experienced hyperinflation after a series of emperors lowered the silver content of their currency, called the denarius.
Today, some lament that the dollar isn't backed by gold, silver, or anything else.
But it is.
It's backed by the world's most powerful military, strongest economy, reserve currency status, international trade agreements, and you also… must pay your taxes in dollars.
Dollars are still liquid and useful… but perpetually debased, so get them and then transition out of them.
Yet, at the same time, we're also the greatest debtor nation in world history. The easiest way to pay it all back is to simply print more and inflate more.
So that’s why it's almost inevitable that dollars will keep being worth less... and BTW, the two words “worth less” sound awfully close to the word “worthless”. Ha!
That’s where we keep heading.
Until you can send a Venmo request to the Fed to compensate you for your loss in purchasing power, we need to actually do something about this.
And the dollar that you had when you started listening to me today could very well now only be worth 99 cents. Ha!
We can either have our standard of living degraded by inflation or we will decide to profit from it.
So, if you haven't yet, check out GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown.
Rather than impoverish you, learn how you can make inflation CREATE wealth for you three ways at the same time with that free, 3-part Inflation Triple Crown video series. Good learning there.
It’s free & easy to watch, again, at GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown
Inflation seemingly seeps into everything.
Inflation took down the commercial sector - Apt buildings & offices. Apts are down 30-40% in the last two years. It’s all because inflation made the Fed panic and jack up those rates.
If that’s not jaw-dropping enough. Office values are down 80%+ in the last two years. 80%+, 90%+ in some cases.
Of course, office RE got the double-whammy of the inflation-induced interest rate hikes AND the Work-From-Anywhere movement.
That leaves residential 1-4 unit properties in good standing - and still impacted by inflation, but LESS impacted by inflation.
Yeah, your 1-4 unit RENTS are up - and I’ll talk more about rent later in the show today.
inflation also jacked up your expenses like insurance, utilities, maintenance & repair cost and more.
But as we move away from the inflation conversation now, of course, one big reason that 1-4s have stayed resilient is the American privilege of LTFIRD - and the fact that it’s 30 years for most US properties.
In fact, in 2022, 89% of homebuyers applied for the 30-year.
I think that you’re about to get more appreciation for this… perhaps than you’ve ever had.
The 30-year FRM is a UNIQUELY American construct.
And, BTW, some people don’t seem to know what the word “unique” means. You’ve probably heard people misusing this word all the time.
Unique does not mean something that’s sort of different.
Unique means “ONE of a kind”. Unique means something that does not exist ANYWHERE else.
What do I do here on this show? Besides giving you the occasional geography lesson as a side dish to your real estate, I do this with vocabulary, grammar, and syntax as well, don’t I?
Even though my own is surely imperfect.
Anyway, the reason that the 30-year mortgage can exist is due to our deep financial markets - especially our secondary market for mortgage-backed securities, where your loan gets packaged up and purchased by a bond investor - a bit like Ridge Lending Group President Caeli Ridge & I touched on last week.
The reason that mortgage-backed securities are attractive to investors in the U.S. and across the globe is because their government sponsorship makes them safe investments over long periods of time. They also provide a fixed payout to the MBS holder.
And see, the rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage tracks closely to 10-year Treasurys because “U.S. real estate is almost as good an investment as a U.S. Treasury bond.”
They’ve got Fannie & Freddie insurance.
And that entire MBS process now has more guardrails in it than we had before the Global Financial Crisis.
We’re talking about the foundation here - really - of where you get your big lumps of money from - the 30-year FRM and its uniqueness.
Compared to the world, the US has very little variable rate debt.
Less than 4% of American mortgage borrowers have debt that’s on rate terms of a year or less. Over 96% of US debt is LTFRD, defined as 10 years or more.
That is virtually unparalleled worldwide. To compare us to some other developed nations, mortgage borrowers in Germany - just 47% of them have long-term fixed debt - and none of them can get 30-year debt.
Long-term debt, again, defined as ten years or more,
Is little to ZILCH for mortgage borrowers in Canada, the UK, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Australia, and other developed nations like them.
In Canada, the most common mortgage terms reset to the prevailing market interest rate every five years.
In Finland, their mortgages reset annually or faster. Gosh, can you imagine if your mortgage rate reset every year like it does for the Finns?
Sheesh, that's more often than some people lose the remote control or rearrange their furniture.
OK. So what's this really mean?
Ya gotta… pour one out for most mortgage borrowers in the rest of the world.
They can’t lock in their mortgage interest rate for the long-term. So with rates doubling or tripling, starting from 3 years ago, it's totally ruined a lot of foreign homeowners.
Look, what if you're middle class and your monthly mortgage payment soars from $1,893 on Tuesday up to $3,415 on Wednesday?
That's what's happening elsewhere. It can go up 50% overnight and nearly double overnight in Australia, Europe and elsewhere.
But in the mortgage-advantaged US, we're safe.
If we buy at an 8% mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed amortizing loan today—just the plain, vanilla loan:
If rates rise to 10% later, you're happy to be locked-in at 8%
If rates fall to 6% later, you'll refinance
Note that I refrain from saying "just refinance". I don't like the word "just". You'll still need hours to provide documentation and your credit score will be checked. But it's worth it.
You won’t “just refinance”. Ha! You’ll refinance.
So think of it this way then, you can alter your deal with the bank whenever you want—and usually with no prepayment penalty. Yet the bank can't alter it on you.
What did Darth Vader say to Lando Calrissian in the “Empire Strikes Back?”. I am altering the deal, pray that I don’t alter it any further.
Ha! We better not play that clip here. I don’t know the copyright laws with LucasFilm or Disney there. Ha!
But you’re not a dark lord of the Sith for doing it… for altering the deal on the bank. You’re playing within the rules.
This is almost an unfair advantage for Americans.
The bottom line here - with this unique American advantage, is that, as rates change, you get to play both sides of the game. And that’s why we add smart properties with loans.
We turn that into wealth, with compound LEVERAGE.
Now, mere compound interest, that’s a vehicle for you to rely on more for your shorter-term funds, your cash or what you’re keeping more liquid.
Long-term wealth is build through compound LEVERAGE.
Short-term funds - that’s for compound INTEREST.
And… your bank is getting rich off of YOU. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.
If your money isn’t making about 4-5% today, you’re losing your hard-earned cash to inflation.
What I do, is keep my dollars in a private LIQUIDITY FUND. You can do this too.
Your cash generates up to an 8% return with—COMPOUND INTEREST—year in and year out instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account - or even 4-5% elsewhere.
The minimum investment is just $25K.
You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. This private LIQUIDITY FUND has a decade-plus track record - and they’ve always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. I would know… because, I'm an investor with them myself.
See what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other GRE listeners are. To learn more, just text the word FAMILY to 66866 to learn more about Freedom Family Investments' LIQUIDITY FUND. Get 8% interest! Just do it right now, while you’re thinking about it. Text FAMILY to 66866.
More straight ahead, including what’s happening with rents. I’m Keith Weinhold. You’re listening to Get Rich Education.
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Welcome back… you’re listening to Episode 503 of Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.
We’ve got a poll result, from our Get Rich Education Instagram Page.
The poll question was simple. “When buying property, what’s more important?”
The purchase price or the mortgage rate.
71% of you said the purchase price. 29% of you said the mortgage rate.
Of course, both are important, but I think that the PURCHASE PRICE is the best answer - because your purchase price stays fixed for the life of your ownership period, and you can CHANGE your fixed mortgage rate and make it malleable… whenever it suits your needs.
As we talk about where the OPPORTUNITY is today, though multifamily apartments are going to bottom out sometime and therefore, at some point, they’ll make a wise investment - who REALLY knows - maybe the time for larger apartments is now…
… one opportunity is… giving good people OPTIONS during a housing affordability crisis.
And what’s going on right now is that… let me put it this way… when people have a hard time affording their own home today, basically (ha!) people are having a hard time transitioning from resenting their landlord to bickering with an HOA.
Ha! That’s kind of how the world works.
Seemingly everyone would rather be bickering with an HOA rather than resenting their landlord.
A lot of renters want to be buyers… they can’t… and that isn’t expected to change anytime soon… as prices will likely stay elevated… and mortgage rates are staying higher, longer too.
These things are ALMOST “knowns”. It’s often wise… to invest in trends that are known. Nothing’s completely predictable, but when you’re looking for a place to park your investment dollars, a few other things… are known… right now.
And AI is not expected to change what I’m about to tell you… anytime soon.
VR - virtual reality is not about to change what I’m about to tell you anytime soon.
AR - augmented reality isn’t either. Machine learning won’t imminently disrupt this.
And that is, that… everyone expects more long-term inflation. At what rate, no one knows.
People will need to live somewhere… and there are not enough places to live.
Those three facts, right there, are so simple. I love simple. Ha! One reason I love simple things is that I can remember it.
So many investors - investors in all types of things, say, from tech EFTs to junior mining stocks to crypto - you can make money there.
But, at times, investors will unnecessarily go out on the risk curve and GUESS and speculate… at a future trend.
Some are right. They’re often wrong, and adopting too much of that approach… that’s exactly when your risk-adjusted return goes down throughout your investor life.
Instead, you can get great returns - real estate pays 5 ways-type of returns - in these trends that I just described that are near certainties.
Why guess? When instead, you can almost be certain.
Often times, the certain thing is right… there.
It’s often easier, like I think I brought up on the show once before, inspired by Jeff Bezos - don’t ask what will change in 10 years.
The more insightful question and profitable question that fewer people think to ask is actually - “What will be the SAME in ten years?”
Well, when we talk about rents and the fact that tenants WILL keep paying you to live somewhere ten years from now, the trend that’s taking place here in the mid-20s decade - here in the mid 2020s, is that…
Rents are increasing the most where there hasn’t been enough new supply added - up 5-6% in parts of the Northeast including New York and Boston - Seattle too… and parts of the Midwest. Detroit and Honolulu rents are each up about 5%.
Rents are decreasing the least, and even declined - where they’ve added lots of new supply recently, like Austin, Texas and Miami, where they’re down 3% or more in each. New Orleans is another major city that’s down - at minus 1%.
But among the larger cities, Austin, Texas is the WORST performer in the nation right now.
If you’re listening to this either this week or you’re listening to this ten years from today, if you want to know future rent trends, look at where they’re adding supply.
Especially in apartments. But all these new apartments will fill up and nationally, they’re building fewer apartments this year than last year’s apartment-building boom.
When we talk about rents and who owns SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES, there are a few myths that I want to help bust for you here.
There seems to be this misconception or misinformation that GIANT Wall Street firms are buying up all the SFRs. That’s just not true.
Now, there is more participation from the big firms than there has been historically, but those that own 1 to 9 SFRs… which is our definition of mom & pop investors here… constitute 80% of the SFR market.
80% own one to nine units. Now, you might own more than 9.
In fact, 14% are in that next tier up, owning 10 to 99 SFRs. Then 3% - known as small national investors own between a hundred and a thousand.
And, what’s left, the big institutional investors - those that own 1,000+ SFRs - and you’ve heard of some of these companies - Invitation Homes, and another is American Homes 4 Rent.
Progress Residential, Blackstone, First Key Homes - all those big players own just 3% of the market.
So again, 80% are the small ones - the mom & pops… a highly fractured market.
There are a total of 82 million SFHs in the United States. Out of all of them, do you have any idea what percent are OOed and how many are rentals?
It’s 83% OOed and 17% of the single-families are rentals. So about one-sixth of SFHs are rented out.
Now, here’s the thing. Some people tend to think of mom and pop single-family rental operators as unsophisticated charity case workers who never raise rents.
That’s part of the perception out there.
But that narrative has never really been true, and, in fact, the COO of American Homes 4 Rent - his name’s Bryan Smith - recently brought up this key point on their recent earnings call.
He said that while historically mom and pops hadn't always priced directly to market because of a lack of market data, "they've migrated into a strategy that's closer to ours."
How is this and why is this? Anymore, why ARE mom & pops raising rents just about as aggressively as the big institutional players.
It’s really increased transparency on the rents that landlords are asking… through internet listing sites like Zillow.
It's not that mom and pops didn't increase rents before. (I mean… just look at what happened with rising rents in the 1970s and 80s before institutions were in the sector.)
But when there's a lack of rent amount transparency, it takes longer for operators to discover and adjust to market pricing-- especially for smaller players in a deeply fragmented market.
That's the part that’s changing.
But see, increased transparency works both ways. It’s good for you and bad for you as a property investor.
This information helps tenants too. In upswing markets, operators may push rents faster than they would otherwise.
But in a downswing market, operators may cut or keep rents flat faster in order to lease the unit.
Because tenants can easily see what other LLs are charging and compare features. When you price too high, units sit vacant and generate no income.
Since renters benefit from increased transparency too, if they see two similar homes, they're usually picking the better deal.
And increased transparency is why NEW lease rent growth is cooling off.
In fact, CoreLogic just released their latest SF Rent Index report last week. It showed that, nationally rents are up 3.4%, which coincidentally, happens to be the same as the latest CPI inflation number.
Detached properties are seeing more rent growth than ATTACHED ones - like townhomes. If you think about it, that makes sense. Townhomes are in less demand now.
Because the homeownership dream, is when one moves out of the apartment & buys a detached house.
And since that’s so unaffordable to buy here in the 2020s decade, that’s why more people are willing to pay more for to rent the detached type.
Note that SFR rent growth has moderated since mortgage rates spiked-- further dispelling the sticky myth that rents boom when home sales fall.
Remember - when homes price growth is really hot - like it was in 2021 and 2022 - near 15% - rent growth tends to be hot too. It was ALSO near 15%.
And when home price growth is moderate, like it is now, well, rent price growth is moderate too.
Prices and rents move together. They’re POSITIVELY correlated. Some people think they move inversely… and we’re looking at history over hunches again - what REALLY happens here.
So though you’re almost certainly going to get nominal rent growth over time, it’s not a good thing for you to count on it in the short-term - it NEVER is, in any era.
The time for you to push rents is, of course, in any market, when you go for NEW leases. A new lease with a new tenant is going to be higher than a renewal lease.
It’s the ol’ - this has been a good tenant for three years, so I don’t want to push the rent too hard & lose them.
To review what you’ve learned today, inflation is affecting ALL of your investments, 30-year FRMs are a UNIQUE American advantage…
…it’s wise to invest in future trends that are KNOWN, if you want to know what is going to happen with rents in the near future, look where they’ve added supply.
Less new supply correlates with more rent growth… and large institutional investors own just 3% of SFRs.
If you enjoy the show, please, tell a friend about it.
Isaiah on LI had the most flattering comment. Over there, he wrote and called GRE “The best podcast on the planet.”
I… really don’t think that I can take credit for that, though… I’d like to think we’re a good resource for building your wealth through REI and regularly informing you, giving you ideas that you’ve never thought about before that add real value to your life.
You’ve heard of Bidenomics. The first portmanteau type that I ever heard about a President’s economic policies is REAGANomics, though it was a little before my time.
Here on the show next week, with us, will be none other than “The Father of Reaganomics”.
Yes, late President RONALD REAGAN’S Budget Director will be here next week. Basically, he was Reagan’s “Money Guy”.
His name is David Stockman and he often met with the President in the Oval Office, advising Reagan on economic affairs.
I have asked David Stockman, if besides talking about the condition of today’s economy next week, he’ll also discuss real estate - and he agreed to do so.
That’s “The Father of Reaganomics”. You can look forward to he & I together next week here on the show.
You might be one of the listeners that’s been here every single week since 2014 - just like I’ve been here for you.
A new podcast is published every Monday. If you want more our DQYD E-mail Letter is published and sent about weekly, that’s typically been on Thursdays lately. Then, there are many new videos published each month over on our Get Rich Education YouTube Channel. Those are the main three places that you can find us.
Until next week, if you enjoy listening, I really appreciate if you would told a friend about the Get Rich Education Podcast.
Until then, I’m your host, KW. Don’t Quit Your Daydream!
-
You can get financially free twice as fast with the BRRRR Strategy instead of buy-and-hold.
But it’s less passive.
BRRRR stands for: Buy, Rehabilitate, Rent, Refinance, and Repeat.
You can get an infinite return this way, by generating yield with none of your own money left in the deal.
Learn how to obtain BRRRR financing from Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group.
The LTVs are 70%, 75%, or 80% depending on the property and financing type.
RidgeLendingGroup.com specializes in helping investors buy income property.
Resources mentioned:
For access to properties or free help with a
GRE Investment Coach, start here:
GREmarketplace.com
Get mortgage loans for investment property:
RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE
or e-mail: [email protected]
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The real estate BRRRR strategy is a shortcut to growing your wealth. But it's less passive than buy and hold with a property manager. Learn what is the Burr strategy and then about some of its pros and cons, mistakes you must avoid and financing programs available, and how it can generate infinite returns for you today and get rich. Education.
Robert Syslo (00:00:28) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.
Robert Syslo (00:01:02) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.
Corey Coates (00:01:13) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold (00:01:30) - Welcome from Bridgeport, Connecticut, to Bridgeport, Texas, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Let's Do Good in the world and abolish the term slumlord profiting at the same time by providing housing to others. It's clean, safe, affordable and functional. This is where, you know, on this show, we often tell you how to become financially free through real estate investing in the next 5 to 10 years without having to be a landlord or flipper. We're going to talk about how to shorten that timeline in a moment, but I have a couple resources to share with you. First, one, late breaking development at GRI marketplace that's been popular is in Florida with new builds, brand new construction for plex's duplexes and single family rentals with points paid a 4.25% mortgage rate.
Keith Weinhold (00:02:28) - Yes, 4.25%. You can pay fewer points and still get a 4.75% rate. Also, some good low interest rate deals for foreign nationals. Go ahead and connect with a great investment coach and learn about those at great marketplace.com. For a 4.25% mortgage rate. If you're a Spanish speaker or have Spanish speaking friends, check out get Rich education.com/espanol to see my free video course on how real estate pays five ways in Spanish. It's pretty interesting how our team here has applied AI to show me speak it in Spanish. Again, you can see that at get Rich education. Com slash espanol. Now the BR real estate investing strategy is popular because it can reduce your out-of-pocket expense for property substantially. Let's break it down here. That is the b are are are are. There are four hours after the B which stands for the first B is buy. You buy a distressed property that needs to be fixed up. Then the R's stand for rehab, then rent, then refinance at that higher value, then repeat. More of you have been buying BR property through GRE marketplace.
Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - Yes, we help you find not just buy and hold properties here, but properties optimized for the BR as well. There are properties that need some work and they are not turnkey, not ready to go with little or no money. In less than three years, you can have a portfolio of 10 to 20 properties with the BR strategy. That's a shortcut, but that does take some work. It's less passive. You're buying distressed property that needs to be fixed up, and you have to be sure that the contractor is getting the work done on time, on budget, and of adequate quality standards. And vetting contractors and dealing with contractors is not easy. I'm going to have a few tips to help you deal with that today, but if you get it dialed in, BR lets you pursue an infinite return strategy where you buy property at a low price, renovated, get it rented, and then refinance it at the higher value. And at times you can get all of your invested cash out on that refinance.
Keith Weinhold (00:05:04) - Well, because a return on investment formula is simply your dollars returned divided by the cash that you have invested in the deal. Well, therefore, if you have no money left in the deal anymore, your return is infinite. Listen carefully. If our guest doesn't do it, then what I'll do is introduce an example here in our conversation for you to get you to help understand the BR. And if this is new to you, this will stretch your thinking somewhat. And then after our break, I'm going to come back and we'll discuss more about any changes to conventional loans for buy and hold investment property. And there's one place that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation. It's time for a big welcome back to their leader, Charlie Rich.
Caeli Ridge (00:06:02) - Hey, Keith. Thank you for having me. It's always a pleasure to be here.
Keith Weinhold (00:06:05) - Well, you know who she is by now. She leads Ridge Lending Group. They're an investor centric lender, and she does such a good, concise job of explaining what real estate investors need to know in optimizing your loan positions.
Keith Weinhold (00:06:18) - And that's why she's here with us again. And, Charlie, rather than just learn about conventional buy and hold loans or refinance loans like we've covered in the past, let's talk about lending for the BR real estate investing method. BR is a method for buying distressed property at a discount. So not turnkey, not fixed up property. Here in BR stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. Now for these loans. Is the lender looking more I guess Charlie maybe we should start with are they looking at the property strength or more at the borrower strength for BR loans?
Caeli Ridge (00:06:54) - Well, first of all, I would say that BR is one of my favorite strategies for real estate investors, especially if they're getting into diversifying their portfolio. I think BR is a very lucrative way to achieve the returns that people are after, not only in appreciation but also in cash flow. You can get some really great leverage in these ROI and ends up being better if you find the right properties. So I'm a big fan of the BR, but to your question, Keith, it depends on what product they're going to elicit for the end loan, for that refinance loan, if we're talking about a conventional loan, Fannie, Freddie and the qualifications are still about the individual and their debt to income ratios, etc. if we're going to put this on a debt service coverage ratio, which it can apply to both, or can, I mean, the strategy does not obligate them to one or the other.
Caeli Ridge (00:07:39) - So we can go conventional where it's still going to be about the individual. Or we can look at more of a debt service coverage ratio, where it's about the income of the property in relation to the mortgage payment.
Keith Weinhold (00:07:48) - And before we go on, of course, identifying a deal is a key here in the BR strategy. Is there any guidance you'd give with identification of that property. Because you might know more from the lender perspective on what's going to be lendable.
Caeli Ridge (00:08:03) - Well, as long as it's habitable, we can lend on it. I would say that you really want to pay close attention to a couple of things. From a lender's perspective, the ARV, right? The after rehab after repair value is the linchpin to all of this. And if you're out there getting your comps from whatever sources, the agent or Zillow or Redfin or whatever it is, the more data that you can gather, the better. But just keep in mind that the ones and zeros that you're probably gaining access to don't necessarily have the components that show all the rehab work that you're putting into it.
Caeli Ridge (00:08:34) - So if you're getting a value of a property like kind property in the area or vicinity that the property is located, it's not always going to attest to what extras you put in, whether it be the hardwoods or square footage or whatever it may be. Just keep in mind that you may not be on point there, and real estate agents, I would want you to have or be working with one that really understands the BR method, aka investor models, to make sure that you don't get caught in a scenario where you're expecting a value of x that comes in at Y, that can be very devastating to the BR methodology, especially for new investors.
Keith Weinhold (00:09:09) - It was more about coming up with the ARV because with a conventional loan on a conforming property, that value that you're lending against is typically the appraisal.
Caeli Ridge (00:09:21) - Correct. And the appraisal is going to take into consideration those rehab pieces. But it's not dollar for dollar. And while I don't know that we want to go down the appraisal rabbit hole, I will tell you that if you've got $50,000 of rehab into the property, that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get a full 50,000 in extra value.
Caeli Ridge (00:09:38) - A lot of it has to do with what you paid for it. Like Keith, you said at the top of the podcast here, distressed property. A lot of times when people are getting into BR, they're finding under market value property to begin with, that's already worth more. They're putting in some real value adds, maybe cosmetic, maybe a little bit more, and then expecting quite a bit more in value. So there's definitely a science to it. But just make sure that for all intents and purposes, you're gathering as much data as you can. And the agent, if you're using a real estate agent to help with MLS listings, etc., that they have some basis of background within this, this particular philosophy.
Keith Weinhold (00:10:12) - Okay, so we are projecting an RV in after repair value here, and then we need to lend against a percentage of a certain value. So clearly since in this case the property is distressed, well then if the property is the lender's collateral and that collateral is a little, you know, why don't we call it damaged, if you will? Well, then I'm going to speculate that is that lender probably not going to give you as favorable loan terms as they would on a conforming property.
Keith Weinhold (00:10:39) - So tell us more about how those bur loan terms look.
Caeli Ridge (00:10:42) - So you might be surprised. Again, as long as the property is habitable the LTV is going to be the same. The value of the property. It is probably what you're going to notice more than what the lending side is going to allow for in the loan to value. So on a single family residence, if it's habitable, we're going to give the individual up to 75% of that ARV. Now, I don't know if we're ready to go down this road. I think we should talk about it at some point. The ARV and how we want to maximize and not leave any money on the table. We want to discuss the purchase price and the acquisition. I think we'll come to that. But to answer your question, habitable 75% single family or 70% on a 2 to 4 unit is going to be the maximum loan to value using the appraisal. When we talk about a cash out refinance of an investment property, which may be different if we get into a rate and term refinance as a purpose of Bur, which will probably touch on as well.
Keith Weinhold (00:11:36) - What I think for the listener benefit here, maybe it's good to jump into an example if you want to apply some real numbers here to a bird deal, and then let's walk through that with the financing and more.
Caeli Ridge (00:11:48) - Let's start with cash out, because it is different than a rate and term. So cash out simply to clarify means that the individual is going to get cash in hand. We are not simply paying off an existing hard money loan. That is a rate and term refinance. So we want to start with cash out where the cash to acquire the property was the individual sourced and seasoned funds. And let's assume that the scenario looks like this. They paid $100,000 for the property. And then there's $50,000 in renovation with the expectation. Or let's just say that we get an appraisal for 200,000. So at 200,000 and it's a single family residence, 75% of that is 150,000. Okay. So that pretty much covers their total acquisition costs. But then we've got a recommendation.
Keith Weinhold (00:12:28) - Cost is quite.
Caeli Ridge (00:12:29) - Covered. But we have to account for closing costs tax and insurance.
Caeli Ridge (00:12:31) - Let's just make it around ten grand. So the individual is going to end up with 140,000 from their 150 total acquisition cost. If you divide those two numbers, you're probably going to be at what? So 140 divided by 150,000. Yeah, 93% overall leverage. You've got ten grand skin in the game. And when you look at it from that perspective, 93% over all loan to value or leverage of this property is very, very high. If you can get a deal to work like that, you're doing very well.
Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - And you can see why people like this and why people are attracted to this. So go ahead and tell us more about this. Because really, when we talk about lending for a bigger property, we're probably talking about two different loans, right? We're talking about the purchase price upfront and then the refinancing later on.
Caeli Ridge (00:13:17) - Right. So let's going back to my example. If you paid cash for the property, if that 150,000 was your sourced in season funds. And if you want Keith tell me later and I'll go into what source and season it is.
Caeli Ridge (00:13:28) - But you have 150,000 in on this property. The key to getting up to the maximum of 150 back. Or in our example, you ended up with 140 back because we accounted for ten grand. And in closing, cost is to make sure this is wildly important. And a lot of people get this wrong the first time they go down the Burr road. Make sure both the purchase price and the acquisition costs are listed on your final CD, aka Closing Disclosure. A closing disclosure comes to you at closing, where it's a document, a form that illustrates all of the line item pluses and minuses of the buyer and the seller and what everybody netted at the end. The CD must have the total 150 listed on there, and just one number is fine. It can be broken up into two numbers, whatever. But as long as both numbers are listed on the CD, you as the borrower, our client, her guidelines are eligible to get up to that much back. So the guideline states that the individual cash in hand cannot exceed a maximum of what the total acquisition costs listed on that CD is.
Caeli Ridge (00:14:28) - So what the common mistake is, let's just keep using our 100,000 purchase in our $50,000 renovation. The common mistake that people make is, is that they pay the 100,000, the seller is made whole. And then the day after closing, they are officially now the owner of this property. They send the 50,000 out to the contractor. Seems obvious, right? Well, in doing it that way, you've left 50,000 on the table and now you're going to have to wait 12 months per new guideline to have 12 months of ownership, seasoned ownership for Fannie Freddie to get the total 150. So make sure that the total 150 is on that CD. And the way to do this, just one more little detail. You want to be working with an escrow company that provides something called an escrow hold back. Because a lot of times when I give this advice, people say, well, I don't really want to release $50,000 to the contractor before they even started any of the work, right? That makes sense to me.
Caeli Ridge (00:15:16) - And most escrow companies do this in escrow. Hold back says that the hundred grand goes to the seller. The 50,000 is earmarked for the general contract, you've gotten your bids, etc., but the escrow company will then deliver the 50,000 upon your approval as draws to the contractor as work is being completed. And that kind of absolves that extra layer of risk. But now you've done the appropriate thing for the financing to get maximize your cash out, and you're not leaving yourself in a weird position to frontload 50 grand before you know they've even started on whatever repairs there are.
Keith Weinhold (00:15:49) - Yes. How much motivation does every contractor have if they've already got their 50 K for 50 K worth of work before they do their work? And it works this way a lot in the contracting world, where progress payments are made intermittently as the contractor performs their work. So tell us more about what we need to know here. Clearly, especially when it comes to the Bir and loans, because you just gave us a great mistake to avoid there.
Caeli Ridge (00:16:13) - Kind of keeping on that theme. And then let's talk about a rate and term refinance. You know, some of the pushback that I'll get when I have these conversations. Well, you get your bids. Okay. We'll start talking about the 50,000 renovation per hour example. And you probably get a low and a high and middle. Maybe you go with the middle. It's been my experience personally and just through conversations that the bid is 50,000. If you don't have the upfront conversation to say, I'm not going to pay a cent over the 50,000 and or you negotiate to say, okay, what is our variance here? Because a lot of times the contractor is not going to be pigeonholed to 50,000. They're going back and say, no, I'm not going to sign anything that says that it will not exceed 50,000. There are costs and things that are out of my control, blah, blah, blah. Then coming up with, okay, fine, 55,000, 50, 2000, whatever that margin might be, including that in there and then having the conversation that says, okay, fine, because you don't want to leave that money on the table.
Caeli Ridge (00:17:03) - So let me take a step back. 50,000 becomes 55,000. And if you didn't have it on the CD, that $5,000 is not eligible to get back. So if you increase the amount that's on that CD, per the conversation with your contractor, make sure one of two things that if it isn't spent, that it's coming back to you and assuming if it is, then everybody is on the same page and it's just going to be part of the expense and part of what you have potential to get back. So just food for thought there. Then moving into the rate and term refinance. Now this is something totally different. This means that you went out and got a hard money lump, some kind of a private bridge loan, which by the way, Ridge does. We have bridge loans that can help fund the purchase and the renovation. We can talk about that if you like. But if you went out and got a hard money loan, this is no longer a cash out refinance unless the value is so high that based on a 75% LTV for cash out, that there's enough money on the table that you don't want to wait the 12 months.
Caeli Ridge (00:18:00) - I'm going to pause on that for a second and just say that the numbers work for a rate and term refinance, where we have an existing loan. Let's say you've got a hard money loan for 150,000. A rate and term refinance lets us go to 80% loan to value on a single family, 75 on a 2 to 4. If you recall a minute ago it was 75 and 70. That's cash out. Refinance rate and term refinance rules when you're not getting any money in hand, were simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs. They increase the LTV allowances. So 75 2 to 480% on a single family residence. So if we can go 80% on the 200,000, what is that one? I can't do mental math, Keith. So 80% of 200,000 is 160. So in that case think about this. So let's just keep going back to our example. You've got 150 into it. We've got 10,000 of closing costs okay. 150 is a hard money loan that we have to pay off. And the 10,000 is what the new refinance closing costs are going to be.
Caeli Ridge (00:19:00) - The value came in at 200,000. 80% of that is 160,000. That's no skin in the game. You have completely covered the hard money loan paid for the closing costs. I mean, you can't get better than that. That's 100% leverage, right? You're not getting cash back. Now let's take that and say that the value came in at 250. And that's a lot of money. In that case, you may want to wait for the 12 months to get that cash back, because you're going to be limited if you use leverage to acquire the property versus your own cash, that's when you're going to have to wait that 12 months. Or if you're cash acquisition, the numbers work out where you'd get an exponentially more amount than what you put into it. You may want to wait there, too. It really just depends on what that RV is going to be. That's why it's the linchpin that'll make you decide whether you're going to wait the 12 months, or if you're ready to rock in in the immediate terms with a rate and term refi.
Caeli Ridge (00:19:53) - No seasoning. If you're not getting cash back, I don't care. We can do it immediately or a cash out refinance. As long as you're not getting more back than what you paid for it. And we can show that the dollars to acquire all in the CD and they came from, you know, seasoning.
Keith Weinhold (00:20:07) - All right. So it's the BR strategy with the cash out refinance and then the burr strategy with the rate and term terms there, if you will. Is there anything else that we need to know about either one of those.
Caeli Ridge (00:20:19) - Really a lot of people always want to say what are the rate differences? And I would say that, you know, overall they're going to be roughly the same when we start talking about those LP's. Again, Keith, low level price adjustments there, pluses and minuses that have to do with risk. A cash out is a higher risk than a rate and term, a rate and term at 80% versus a cash out at 75% might offset that. So relatively speaking, they're probably going to be within an eighth to a quarter percentage point if all the other variables are equal.
Keith Weinhold (00:20:44) - Now, clearly, I think of a hard money loan is something that allows. You to put both the purchase price of a property and the projected rehab cost, and roll those all into the loan at closing. That's what I think of as a hard money loan. Is there any difference between a hard money loan and the other things that you're describing to us?
Caeli Ridge (00:21:04) - Not really. I mean, it's probably a cat of a different name, right? I mean, a hard money loan, a private money loan, a portfolio loan, a bridge loan. I mean, you could use the same thing, depending on the context of the sentence, to mean the same thing, maybe something different. You're probably right in this context. It's going to be the same, I think.
Keith Weinhold (00:21:21) - Well, I want to talk to you more about conventional loans and any mortgage industry trends that have been taking place lately. But before we do, do you have any last thing to tell us about the Burr strategy, where really someone can accumulate maybe 10 or 20 properties in just three years with little or no money, but more work?
Caeli Ridge (00:21:39) - Yeah, a little bit more work.
Caeli Ridge (00:21:40) - I would say get to know your market, have your team. That contractor. Man, I think you alluded to this. I think that that's the piece that most people struggle with is finding the right contractor for one of the things that tends to work well, if you have established a relationship, is kind of getting in with some kind of a JV with the contractor, right? They've got skin in the game. Maybe if your numbers work out, they get a 5% bonus on the end, whatever. Just to kind of not keep them honest but keep them honest, if you know what I mean. So making sure you've got a good contractor that you can trust if you're going to be doing this out of state from where you live, even more so, doubly so you really want to have the right team. And that includes the general contractor, the escrow company, your lender. Everybody's got to kind of be on the same page if you're going to continue to do this as a rinse and repeat.
Caeli Ridge (00:22:23) - And then finally I would say bring it to Ridge. Let's just make sure if you're new to doing this, I want to make sure you're not leaving that money on the table, that we're structuring it appropriately so that we're maximizing the loan to value, we're maximizing your dollar, and that you're not leaving money or leaving money for some period of time longer than what you would have wanted to, because this is a rinse and repeat, right? If you don't do it right the first time, you could be stuck tying up 30 grand for 12 months that you would have otherwise been able to capitalize on. If we looked at it in advance of you pulling a trigger.
Keith Weinhold (00:22:52) - Yeah, that's correct. In fact, that last R in the BR strategy is to repeat it. And yet, to your point about contractors, I like to think about what contractor motivations are and what my motivations are. And in times I have incentivized contractors with giving them a 5% bonus if they finish things ahead of schedule or a 5% penalty if they finish things behind schedule and putting that in the contract as well.
Keith Weinhold (00:23:14) - You're listening to get versus a case. We're talking with Ridge Landing President Charlie Ridge about getting loans for the BR strategy more when we come back. I'm your host, Keith Windhoek. Role. Under this specific expert with income property, you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love.
Keith Weinhold (00:24:29) - How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.
Speaker 5 (00:25:06) - This is our Rich dad, Poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Wayne. All scripture data.
Keith Weinhold (00:25:25) - Hey. Welcome back. You're inside. Episode 502 of gray. I'm your host, Keith. Y'know, we're talking with the president of Ridge Lending Group, Charlie Ridge. She talked to us before the break about her financing strategies and the things that you need to keep in mind in order to optimize your returns there. It's only now back here on the conventional side, we talk more about conforming loans for properties that are already fixed up.
Keith Weinhold (00:25:48) - Or maybe people call those turnkey. What about some of those hurdles that investors often have in there? For example, I know that the DTI one exceeding their debt to income ratio threshold when they try to qualify is sometimes a problem. So can you talk to us about some strategies with that? For example, sometimes a person might have a $500 a month car payment, but they only have four or more payments to make for their $2,000 principal balance. And it just makes more sense to pay that off. And then that drops off the DTI calculation. Are there any other thoughts you have with regard to that?
Caeli Ridge (00:26:18) - There's so many in this. I mean, we probably have our own episode for all different ways on debt to income ratio and to move that needle. Just to go back to your example, just FYI, if the car loan is financed, not leased, and there are ten months or left reporting on the credit report automatically per guideline we had, we can exclude that if it was at least with ten months or less, we have to keep it in the ratio.
Caeli Ridge (00:26:39) - But if it's a finance car, ten months are left are showing on the report. It's automatically reduced from the liability section of DTI. The other things that we're to look at just obvious things. Can we gross up any kind of income. Right. Are there bonuses or commissions or Social Security or veterans benefits or whatever that allow us to gross those up, making sure that we've got all of the applicable income that they gather? Sometimes people will forget to say, oh, I get this. You know, child support or alimony or whatever it may be that I didn't think to disclose. We want to make sure that we have that in there. And then we talk about liabilities we want to look at here's kind of a good one. Student loans let's say that either cosigned or you have your own student loans. Fannie and Freddie have different. And maybe they're in deferment. Okay. So when we pull the credit it shows zero as the monthly payment. While Fannie and Freddie have different rules about what we have to hit them for.
Caeli Ridge (00:27:25) - And I could be getting these backwards, but I think that Fannie is 1% of the outstanding balance, whereas Freddie is a half a percent. So depending on some other variables, we may elect to say, okay, DTI is really tight, we're going to take this and make this one of Freddie, assuming that they fit all the other boxes so that we're only having to hit them for that half a percent. Otherwise we look at maybe paying off revolving debt, get those payments down if they're small enough, maybe there's a $3,000 balance that has a $300 payment that's really screwing things up, and they can afford to pay that off. So certainly we can look at those kinds of things, adding in a co-borrower, putting more money down, buying the interest rate down, maybe finding slightly cheaper insurance, right. At least for the purpose of the loan. And then if you wanted to get higher insurance or lower deductibles or higher deductibles later, you could certainly do that. So there's so many different variables that we can look at to really it's not a one size fits all.
Caeli Ridge (00:28:13) - And DTI is kind of a slippery slope. And there's lots of different ways in which we can get that down into check. And if it doesn't happen today, we can help them plant the seeds for what to do tomorrow and making sure that we get them there.
Keith Weinhold (00:28:24) - Wow, that was fantastic. I hope you, the listener, are listening closely because Charlie just gave so much packed, nutrient dense information about what you can do with your DTI. And for starters, I think a lot of people think about reducing their debt to improve their DTI. But is all your income being credited as well? Hopefully you caught that part which said that. But when it does come to reducing the debt portion, of course student loans have very much been in the news with all these plans for forgiveness. Is that impacting DTI substantially?
Caeli Ridge (00:28:53) - If they had the right documentation? Sure. Yeah. If they're on there and we have the right documentation that shows that they are forgiven, but they just haven't caught up with the system, then absolutely.
Caeli Ridge (00:29:00) - Otherwise, if they don't have the supporting doc, the letter that says and it's on the credit report, we're going to have to hit them for it, whether there's a payment there or a zero deferred. And then we have to figure out the 5.5 or the 1%. It'll have to be in there. Just depends on what they can deliver in terms of that forgiveness in paper trail.
Keith Weinhold (00:29:18) - You do with mortgages every day in there. That's what you specialize in for investors. Are there any just overall mortgage industry trends that really specifically impact real estate investors that have occurred? Or amid.
Caeli Ridge (00:29:31) - The rates? Everything is going to come back to the rates. As much as I impress upon people, it really shouldn't be about the rate. And I understand the psychology. Listen. But if they're not doing the math, they're really doing themselves and their future investment a disservice. The shelf life, you guys of an investment property mortgage is five years. Whatever the rates are today, you're not going to have that interest rate almost certainly in 5 to 7 years.
Caeli Ridge (00:29:54) - So kind of looking down the forecast of where rates we think they're going to go, the appreciation of the property, harvesting equity, pulling cash out. Keep those things in mind when you fixate on the interest rates. I would say that that's usually what it's top of people's minds. The most recent inflationary data came out. It was hotter than we expected. However, shortly thereafter, if you're watching closely the unemployment rate and the jobs report, I think it offered 175,000 new jobs and the projection was to something. So that's good news. And listen, you guys, you can't have it both ways. We're in a hot economy. I guess it depends on who you're talking to and who you're asking. I understand, but for all intents and purposes we've got inflation is is down. It's not down where the Fed's wanted that 2%. The unemployment rate is very, very low. So in that regard we're doing very well. So interest rates are going to be higher. Unfortunately it balances this way. The worse the economy does the better the interest rates do.
Caeli Ridge (00:30:48) - Finding that equal balance I think is the key. And don't ask me, I'm not going to try and predict how to do that. But do your mouth be prepared for refinancing when it comes. Sitting on the fence is usually not going to be to your advantage if you're waiting for interest rates to come down, and that coupled with house values, come down a little bit too. And you may have played yourself out of the refinance anyway for the purposes that you wanted to pull cash out. So just be educated. Call us. We can kind of walk you through some of that stuff. Interest rates, I think, are going to be higher for longer unless we see some real significant data trends, because there's a lag. And what we get from the Fed's and I think they try to put that in there, but who knows what's going to happen. What are they going to see us again June, July. We'll see what happens. If jobs reports keep being light, then maybe we start to see a little bit more reprieve in the interest rates.
Caeli Ridge (00:31:32) - But we're still we're what, seven and a quarter, seven and a half for investment property I think in most cases. So if that's too high to cash flow, find a short term rental. Find a mid term rental. There's other ways in which to accomplish your variety of variables. Even in the seven and 7.5% interest rate environment.
Keith Weinhold (00:31:49) - Well, there's so much I can say about the fed and the interest rates, but I think you said something very important earlier that the average shelf life of a mortgage loan product is about five years. It's exceedingly few people. Well, less than 1%. They're making their 360th monthly payment ever at a 30 year fixed rate loan. Charlie, I want to ask you what. Maybe it's becoming sort of known as the Charlie Ridge question. I like to ask you this almost every time that you're on the show, because it gives us a temperature of the market, because you see so many loans and so many appraisals come in there, what percent of appraisals are coming in above value? What percent are coming in on value, and what percent of appraisals are coming in below value?
Caeli Ridge (00:32:26) - We don't see as many low values.
Caeli Ridge (00:32:28) - I think that there was a period of time where that was rampant. It was really frustrating for a lot of people, especially on the Non-owner occupied side. The vast majority are coming in on point, and I think a lot of that has to do with 0809 regulation. Appraisers are kind of scared of their own shadow and overvaluing properties. So I think that they do very everything they can to hit the mark. And I don't see too much over an occasion. We'll see a little bit over. It's more likely to see it over than under these days. I would say, okay, percentages under 10% on the mark 8075 and then over. We'll give it.
Keith Weinhold (00:33:03) - 1515. Okay, a few more over than under, but pretty close to right on value there. You do loans in almost all 50 states. And these are the states where the property is located, not where the borrower lives. Right. So it's every state except a few.
Caeli Ridge (00:33:20) - Right? We're not in North Dakota and we are not in New York.
Caeli Ridge (00:33:22) - Otherwise we are lending in all 48 states where the property is. That is correct.
Keith Weinhold (00:33:27) - Yeah. And you specialize in loans for investors. Like I said earlier, what other loan types do you offer investors and others in there because you do a few primary residence loans too.
Caeli Ridge (00:33:38) - We do lots of primary. I would say, you know, it's 7030 probably. We're very capable, full service direct lender. What that means is we fund on our warehouse line, we underwrite in house, but we don't service these loans. So we bundle them up in mortgage backed securities and we resell them on the secondary market to aggregators. You guys will know this as servicers. Any Mac, Wells Fargo, whoever is going to be the end servicer of the loan. And I've worked really, really hard to create an environment specifically for investors, not exclusively, but largely so that we're not a one size fits all. So I really appreciate the question and being able to articulate to your listeners, we really do everything. It's very uncommon that we don't have a loan product to feed the actual need.
Caeli Ridge (00:34:17) - The one thing that I would say we don't have or don't offer is going to be a lot bear lot loans we don't fund on just bare land, but we can do the Fannie Freddie's bridge loans. So for the fix and flip or fix and hold the BR, we do non QM. This is just non QM is kind of everything outside the Fannie Freddie box. If you can't quite fit into the rigors of Fannie Freddie you're going to be in non QM probably where debt service coverage ratio lives. Bank statement loans live, asset depletion loans live. We have commercial loan products for commercial properties. For residential properties we have. Ground up construction. First line Helocs for relationship clients we have second line Helocs. We had second line for everybody when we pulled back just for relationship clients for reasons that we'll discuss on one on one if anybody's interested in that. What am I forgetting, Keith? You get the point. There's a lot. If you think that you're trying to get financing for residential or commercial properties, please email us and we'll take some information to let you know what we can do.
Keith Weinhold (00:35:10) - Well, yeah, to my point, you provide such a great service in a wide palette of options. It's somewhat easier to describe what you don't do. Yeah. And what you do offer to people. And of course, I've done my own loans in there at Ridge and my own refinancings in there. And yes, I usually end up getting a servicer. That's one of the big banks that you've always heard of over the long term that I make payments to. Where does one get started to get things rolling with Ridge or just to ask some questions.
Caeli Ridge (00:35:36) - Call us 855747434385574. Ridge, you'll get someone immediately. We don't have any call trees. You'll speak to me if I'm available at the time. Our website's got a lot of great information. Ridge lending group.com email info at Ridge Lending group.com. All of those ways will get you on the books with me, if that's what you like. Or assign you to a loan officer in the company. And we look forward to serving you.
Keith Weinhold (00:36:00) - You have given our longtime listeners more good, timely mortgage information than anyone in the history of the show here, and we're all better for it.
Keith Weinhold (00:36:09) - Charlie Ridge, thanks so much for coming back on to the show.
Caeli Ridge (00:36:11) - Thank you Keith.
Keith Weinhold (00:36:18) - Let's review some of what you learned about Bir and their loans today. Once your property is renovated and rented, which are the first and second are the third are. Is refinance for a cash out refinance type? It is a maximum of 75% loan to value on single family and 70% on a 2 to 4 unit, and then for a rate and term refinance, which means when you don't get any money in hand after closing and you're simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs, it's 80% loan to value on single family and 75% on a 2 to 4 unit. And you learn to be sure that both the purchase price and the acquisition cost are listed on your final closing disclosure. You know what I think is interesting with originating mortgage loans today? Overall, it's one question that I've been thinking about, and maybe we'll do a poll on this question. If we do, I'll share the results with you. And that is, do people care more about the mortgage interest rate than the purchase price of the property itself? Sometimes it seems that way to me.
Keith Weinhold (00:37:29) - Now your mortgage rate definitely matters, but not as much as the purchase price. I mean, later months or years down the road. After you purchase a property, you can often renegotiate the mortgage interest rate, like if rates fall, but your purchase price stays fixed, that part never gets renegotiated. And like I mentioned last week, low mortgage rates don't create wealth. Leverage does. And to put a finer point on that, consider that in 1971, the mortgage interest rate was 7.3%. Back there in 1971, if you had waited for interest rates to go down, you wouldn't have purchased a home or an income property until 1993. You would have waited 22 years for rates to go down. And meanwhile the price of real estate quadrupled, and many people expect mortgage rates to stay higher, longer. Whether you're interested in the BR strategy or already renovated income, property or even primary residence loans, I invite you. You can get loans at the same place that I have myself for years. That's it.
Keith Weinhold (00:38:41) - Ridge lending group.com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.
Speaker 6 (00:38:52) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.
Keith Weinhold (00:39:20) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.
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In this episode of the Get Rich Education podcast, host Keith Weinhold explores the current state of home pricing and the housing market.
He examines whether homes are overpriced or underpriced by comparing them to historical values, gold, and bitcoin, and discusses the influence of inflation and financing on affordability.
The episode features insights from Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com, on the challenges for young homebuyers, housing supply issues, and mortgage rate effects.
The conversation also covers the build-to-rent trend, investment strategies, and the importance of increasing housing construction.
Weinhold concludes by offering free coaching for building real estate portfolios.
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Complete episode transcript:
Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Home Prices Aren’t Really Up! Brace yourself. A mic drop moment on real estate costs is coming.
It’s an unmasking - a reality check on property prices. Are homes actually still priced too LOW today? How could that POSSIBLY be true at all? On Get Rich Education.
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Welcome to GRE! From Belgrade, Serbia to Belleville, Illinois and across 188 nations worldwide. I’m Keith Weinhold and you’re listening to Episode 501 of Get Rich Education.
We’ll get to “Are homes overpriced or underpriced today?” shortly.
But understand this…
I successfully acquired something at a young age. And you can too. That thing that I successfully got ahold of was not millions of dollars… because I came from average means.
What I intentionally and successfully acquired was millions of dollars in debt.
Yes, obtaining millions in debt from a young age… is what led to me quitting my day job while I was young enough to enjoy it.
You, the longtime listener, COMPLETELY understand and appreciate what I just said. If you’re a newer listener, that sounds unusual or even irresponsible. Well, come along for the ride.
Also, a layperson - or a newer listener - would respond with, “No one talks that way, thinks that way, or does that.” - taking out millions in debt and calling THAT aspirational.
But using that debt as leverage is how you ethically take funds from the big banks - take Chase Bank’s money, take Bank of America’s money, take Wells Fargo’s money - learn how to use it, be a responsible steward of the funds, provide good housing for people and prosper.
That means you get the return on both your down payment - and the entire amount that you borrowed from those banks. That all goes to you. And both your tenants and inflation pay the debt back - not you.
Look, I know one person. I personally know a guy - Greg. Greg makes $80K a year from his day job. Good guy, married guy, one kid.
And his NW increased by $2M just in the COVID run-up. He has a modest salary but his NW is up $2M just since 2020.
First of all, do you think that any of Greg’s co-workers experienced that effect? No, he’s really going down my path. You soon get unrelatable to co-workers and even some of your peers.
Well, what makes it possible for a good family guy - or anybody - to go from a middling salary to obtaining life-changing wealth?
It takes leverage. He borrowed for bank loans. That way, he could acquire 5x as much property than if he paid all cash for his rental properties.
That way, he had 5x as MANY properties… and properties all appreciate at the same rate regardless of how much equity you have in them.
See, if he had paid all cash, he’d only have a $400K capital gain. Not bad, but $2M is life-changing. Thanks to leverage.
Everyday people obtain life-changing wealth this way. It’s so substantial… that it won’t only affect Greg’s life. If he continues on this way, it’ll take care of his children, grandchildren, and great grandchildren.
And you know, maybe this is why, one of the most recurrent guests we’ve had here in the history of this GRE, Ken McElroy, he says:
“The best investment in RE is the one that appreciates the most, not the one that cash flows the most.” That’s Ken McElroy. And now you can see why he says that.
Leveraged appreciation creates wealth the fastest. Cash flow is important and it CAN boost wealth but that happens more slowly. Principal paydown doesn’t create it - it enhances it… and it’s the same with tax benefits.
Deferring your tax on a 1031 means that you can re-leverage a greater amount.
Low interest rates also don’t create wealth. In fact, I bought my first ever income property with a 6⅜% mortgage rate and my second income property with a 7⅝% rate - that second one had interest-only payments.
But I borrowed the maximum amount that I could without OVERleveraging. Overleverage means losing control of the mortgage and operating expenses.
The lesson here is… get the leverage.
And… case in point. Here we go…
Speaking of appreciation, the LATEST Case-Shiller Home Price Index figure came in. The US currently has… 6.4% YOY home price appreciation. Now, their index is only based on 20 cities but that gives you a pretty good idea.
In fact, that is the fastest rate of increase since 2022.
Now, if you’ve let equity build up in your properties to the point that they’re half paid off, you had 2x leverage, meaning the 6.4% appreciation just gave you a 12.8% leveraged return on your skin in the game.
And, of course, if you leveraged with a 20% down payment a year ago, that 6.4% means that you just got a 32% return.
And as we know, these returns I just told you about are from one of just one of FIVE ways that you’re expected to be paid simultaneously.
But yeah, a 6.4% higher is merely a DOLLAR-DENOMINATED price. That’s what that is. Why do I say that carefully?
Well, there are a few reasons that home prices are 6.4% higher - inflation from dollar printing could be why, the value - not price - but some properties have a greater VALUE, distinctly separate from inflation.
What’s the distinction there - how does this happen? What’s one difference between an INFLATED price and a greater value?
Well, say that a local economy is hot because there are more high-paying jobs there now than there were last year - say an influx of medical jobs or AI jobs or chipmaking jobs.
Well, even absent inflation, a property that now has PROXIMITY to better-paying jobs - that’s now a property that’s more desirable.
Someone is more willing to PAY MORE FOR - and simply CAN pay more for. Again - that phenomenon is ABSENT inflation.
What’s another reason that home prices rise - and rose 6.4% YOY in this case?
If better PHYSICAL AMENITIES are in new homes than there used to be - say bigger garages or new communities with pickleball courts, well, people are more willing to pay more for that.
To review, there are three reasons that home prices go higher: inflation, appreciation from value creation - like how the same home is now located closer to more high-paying jobs, and thirdly, better built-in amenities.
All three of those increase dollar-denominated price or value. They all increase the nominal price.
Now, let’s pivot into the fact that “Home Prices Aren’t Really Up”.
I’ve covered this a little before, but I’m going to go deeper today in giving you the most comprehensive look at home prices today - compared to the past - perhaps than you’ve ever had in your life.
Some might say, “C’mon. How can this be? Homes cost, perhaps 40% more than they did just four years ago.”
Well, I’ve got a mic… drop… moment… coming.
- Home Prices Aren’t Really Up.
We need a good measuring stick to see what home prices are doing. So we’ve got to stop pricing homes in dollars for a minute. It's a poor long-term value measure.
Ludicrous inflation means the dollar has lost over 25% of its value just since 2020, and 97% of its value since 1920.
Let’s use a commodity and money that has been valued for five millennia - and its physical properties have not changed one bit in allll that time, and its valued across continents and cultures - that’s 50 centuries of value! That’s gold.
We’ll get to a more modern measure soon. But first, gold is the best one.
Now, I don’t know who to credit, but for a while, there was an image floating around out there that GRE got ahold of.
It showed that 10 kilos of gold would buy you an average home back in 1920… and also, that 10 kilos of gold would still buy you an average home today… total… mic… drop… moment. Wow! Is there any better evidence that home prices are NOT up - but higher prices reflect that the dollar is down?
Actually, yes, there is a little better evidence. We ran the numbers here and learned that - it’s even more astounding than that!
You run how many dollars per ounce gold is worth, that 35ish ounces are in a kilo and you look at home prices then and now and we discovered that - it’s even more of a jaw-dropper…
… because in 1920 - which I’ll just call a century ago - you could buy an average home for 8 kilos of gold and today, you can buy an average home for just 6 kilos of gold.
So if you want to know how much home prices have changed in the last century, they are down 25%.
They’re 25% cheaper today in terms of gold - clearly a more stable value indicator than horrendously diluted dollars are.
And also, GRE made a new image that shows this - 8 kilos for an average home a century ago, 6 today. I sent you that image in our newsletter about ten days ago and that image got shared a LOT of times.
Your first reaction to this whole thing could be: "Wow! That's wild. The dollar really is sooo diluted."
Alright. What about home prices in terms of a popular, nascent asset that only arrived fifteen years ago, bitcoin?
2016: Average home cost $288K, or 664 bitcoins.
2020: Average home cost $329K, or 45 bitcoins.
2024: Average home cost $435K, or 7 bitcoins.
So, eight years ago, a home cost 664 bitcoins and today it costs 7.
That means that home prices are down 25% in terms of gold in the last century.
But they’re down 99% in bitcoin over just the last 8 years.
And the dropped mic keeps reverberating through the stadium.
Today's homes are cheaper in gold and drastically cheaper in bitcoin.
See, it takes real world resources and proof of work to create real estate, gold, and bitcoin. None of these things are required to produce a dollar - none of them. That's why its value is approaching zero.
But let’s go deeper. You need more answers - you are part of a really intelligent audience.
Because you might be thinking: "Wait a second. Some other things have changed too." For real people - everyday people - aren't home prices actually more out of reach than this?
That's because since 1920, home prices have risen faster than incomes. That puts them OUT OF REACH for more people.
Something else has changed. A home's lot size is smaller today too - the land that comes with the property has a smaller area.
Let’s understand too - homes also use some cheaper materials today. For example, heavy, milled raw wood doors - the interior doors - of yesteryear have given way to molded particle board today.
This is beginning to build the case - evidence - that homes SHOULD be cheaper than they are today.
Let’s keep going, because there’s more to consider.
Mortgage rates themselves - just rates in isolation - they don't put homes out of reach at all. The long-term average is 7.7%, per Freddie Mac, on the 30-year FRM. That average goes back to 1971, when they first began tracking them.
Oppositely, you can make the case that U.S. homes should cost even more than they do today.
In many advanced nations, homes are way more pricey. Even next door in Canada, they cost about 20% more than U.S. homes. Canadian salaries are lower than US salaries too - yet their home prices are markedly higher.
On some levels, you're getting more "home" today in the US.
A 1920 home would feel savagely uninhabitable to you if you tried to live in one now.
Here’s what I mean…
In 1920: 1% of homes had electricity and full plumbing.
Today: 99% of homes have electricity and full plumbing.
What I mean then, by savagely uninhabitable, is enjoy walking to the outhouse in the middle of the night when it's 35 degrees.
Then there's size:
1920: The average home had 242 sf per person.
Today: The average home has 721 sf per person.
Because today, family sizes are smaller and homes are way larger too.
Today's amenities would be unthinkable in 1920—walk-in closets, roofs with R38 insulation, double-paned thermal windows, smart thermostats, voice-controlled lighting, quartz countertops, and Kitchen Aid appliances. Maybe even a security system. They’re all things that homes have today.
Gosh, even the fact that you have a garage - a HEATED garage even, finished basement, air conditioner and modern washer-dryer would leave 1920 homeowners dumbstruck with their mouth agape—maybe even flabbergasted. Those old folks from yesteryear wouldn’t believe all that you get with a home today.
Yet that 1920 home would have cost you more in gold, than today’s more sizable homes with all their plush amenities.
Now, when it comes to - though home prices aren’t up, are they more “out of reach” for the average American?” Over the past five years, they ARE - because home prices have now risen faster than incomes over THAT stretch.
But another BIG reason that homes are SUBSTANTIALLY more affordable today than they were in 1920 is… financing terms.
Today, you can make a down payment for between 3% and 20% on a home. Do you know what loan terms were like in 1920? You had to make a 50% down payment and then had to pay off your mortgage in 5 years.
Can you IMAGINE if that were the case today? How many people could put 50% down on a home today and then pay off the balance within 5 years. Virtually nobody. That’s why homes are more within one’s grasp today.
Overall, you can see that there are a lot of countervailing factors here… tempering that it took 8 kilos of gold to buy a home a century ago, and it just takes 6 kilos today.
The bottom line here is that, long-term, real home prices aren't up. Dollars are down because they've been printed like crazy.
From today, nominal home prices could keep rising for years.
Dustin on social had a funny comment about this - “How many baconators from Wendy’s would it take to buy a home today?” Ha!
I don’t know. I guess that’s a hamburger - I don’t go to Wendy’s. Maybe then, a home costs 60,000 baconators today.
Coming up straight ahead - what will happen first - a $750K median-price home, $100K bitcoin, or $5K gold.
Also, what’s perhaps the biggest trend in real estate investing that not enough people are talking about - and how you can make money from it… and more… all next - I’m KW. You’re listening to Get Rich Education.
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Welcome back, to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.
On our latest GRE Social Media Poll, we ran this question.
What will happen first?
The median home value hits $750K.
Bitcoin hits a $100K price. Or…
Gold hits $5K.
I’ll give you the result, but what do you think? Again, which one of these three things will happen first?
The median home value hits $750K.
Bitcoin to $100K. Or…
Gold hits $5K.
The results across both LI and IG were pretty similar - sometimes you get differences there, as LI is a more professional audience.
One voter in the poll also commented - it’s syndication attorney Mauricio Rauld, who we’ve had here on the show before.
Mauricio said: I think assuming Bitcoin doesn't collapse, it probably makes a run to $100K in the next few years (who knows, could be next few months). But with the median home, at 10% a year, it would take 6 years to hit $750K so that is a decade away. That’s his thought - sounds reasonable.
The poll RESULT is:
Bitcoin will hit $100K first. That was most likely, with 57% of you answering that. That makes sense since its volatile and close to striking distance.
The median home value will hit $750K finished 2nd. 26% of you said that.
And gold up to a $5K price got just 17% of the vote. That makes sense since gold prices would have to about double from here.
You can always join along in the conversation and polls. We are really easy to find - because on virtually every social platform - Facebook, Instagram, LI, YouTube - we ARE: “Get Rich Education”.
Over on the Get Rich Education YouTube Channel, I recently covered how the Fed is overseeing a “Tug of War” between inflation and a recession. They don’t want the game to end. The Fed is trying to keep the game going.
They don’t want participants on either side falling into a pit in the middle of the Tug of War game between inflation and a recession. They don’t want either side to win. If one side wins, the Fed loses.
This “Tug of War” game is really a great way to understand how the Fed works, how they control your money, and what their motivations are. A video about that is on our YouTube channel - where you get the visual of the Tug of War game between inflation and a recession.
That’s just one example of how that content is often different from what you’re hearing now. Get more… on our YouTube Channel… called “Get Rich Education”.
The homeownership rate just fell again a little, quarter-over-quarter, increasing the number of renters and rental demand, which I expect will only continue. From CNBC, Realtor.com’s Chief Economist Danielle Hale tells us more. Let’s listen in. It’s about why the housing market is pretty dire for young Americans, then I’ll be right back with some key commentary on this.
Yeah, there in Economist Danielle Hale’s interview - if mortgage rates go higher, inventory pulls back and we tend to see modest HPA. Most agree that if mortgage rates go lower, we’ll see RAPID HPA.
She also just keeps exposing what we all know. “We need to build more housing”.
A brand-new home constructed with a renter in mind, sold to an investor, is known as build-to-rent housing. You’ll see it abbreviated BTR. It's usually single-family.
Some abbreviate it B2R. These must be the same people that say H2O instead of water.
It's become massively popular.
Despite an overall housing shortage, last year, a record 27,495 BTR homes were completed.
That's up 75% from the prior year and up an astounding 307% since pre-pandemic deliveries back in 2019.
So what's driving the build-to-rent trend?
Locked into low mortgage rates, existing homeowners won't sell. So, instead, new inventory must be constructed.
More overall housing demand than supply.
Wannabe first-time homebuyers cannot afford homes today. Renting a BTR is next best. National BTR occupancy is over 96%.
BTR operates similarly to apartment buildings under property management, yet offer a single-family living experience.
Some of these communities have: leasing offices, pools, and fitness centers.
The homes themselves often have: luxurious modern finishes, garages, and fenced backyards.
What's in it for investors? How do you make money with BTRs?
5% mortgage rates* (I’ll get back to that in a minute)
A long-term ownership focus, generating revenue over time rather than immediately
Tenants have a house-like feel. Expect 3+ years avg. tenancy duration.
Mgmt. fees are low because all houses are the same and all in the same area too
BTR purchase prices are HIGHER than resale property. You will pay more.
Expect better appreciation than resale property
The rent range is often $1,500 to $3,500
You can expect low maintenance. It's new.
Builder home warranty
So there are a ton of factors that give build-to-rent investor appeal.
Really, 5% mortgage rates? Yes. Here at GRE, we can introduce you to some BTR homebuilders that will buy down your rate for you. One is lowering it to 4.75%.
I encourage you to get that incentive now, because when mortgage rates fall substantially, I don’t expect these national and regional homebuilders to keep giving you the rate buydown.
Sorry J-Pow. This kinda makes your next Fed rate decision… seem pretty irrelevant.
It's a great rental model to pursue and an amazing time to do it with the rate buydowns. I wish BTR would have existed when I began as an investor.
You really didn’t start hearing about BTR at all until about ten years ago.
Now, I appear as a guest on other business and investing shows. Quite a few times, the host asks me where the REI opp is today.
The answer that I’ve been giving is that it’s with build-to-rent properties and these rate buydowns.
An income-producing asset is like your employee that’s working for you—but without the personality problems. The property is also working for you 24/7.
Besides just helping you find the best BTR deals today, we can help set up an entire real estate investment portfolio plan for you.
-We can help build an income-producing RE portfolio for you with our free coaching. Truly free.
Now, if you’re new here, you might think that we’re trying to sell you something - and we aren’t.
The way it works elsewhere is that some people get attracted to the free thing and then once you’re on the phone or Zoom or free live, in-person event, they’re going to try to sell you their better PAID coaching or some online course for a fee.
We don’t even sell coaching or sell a course. This is free no-strings, no upsell, no catch coaching.
OK, it’s sort of the opposite of your auto dealer calling you about your extended warranty - an overpriced item that you don’t want. Ha! If you want to buy something from GRE, you can’t because we don’t even have anything to sell you. We are here to help!
Also, I have no problem with companies selling paid courses or paid coaching - not at all. Some courses are worth paying for. It’s just not what we do or have EVER done here.
But see, buying real estate that you own directly is still not as simple as just finding a keyboard and pressing: Ctrl, alt, Deal.
So that’s why our Investment Coaches help you learn your goals, and navigate the process. Then you’ll want to keep in touch with your coach because the best deals are often changing.
For example, you might think that you want to buy income property in, just say, Alabama, because its prices haven’t run up as much as they have in Florida.
But we keep regular lines of communication open with build-to-rent homebuilders nationwide… and say there’s a new community, in, Florida, where the real deals are going to be for the next few months…
…and though you still like Alabama, you like how Florida is growing faster so you end up going there.
Or there’s better cash flow with some BRRRR strategy properties in say, Ohio, that we have that your coach informs you about.
So, I encourage you. Get & maintain a line of communication with your GRE Investment Coach.
To review what you learned today:
Leverage is THE most powerful wealth creator.
You can make the case that homes are NOT overpriced today. Home prices aren’t up; the dollar is down.
No one knows the future. But there is ample room for more home price growth.
Build-to-Rent property keeps increasing in popularity… and investors can get mortgage rates on them as low as about 5%.
To contact an investment coach, it’s free, start at GREmarketplace.com.
Until next week, I’m your host, KW. DQYD!
- Visa fler
