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Markets are front-loading the effect of potential Trump policy changes in 2025, which will keep volatility elevated says Ben Emons, founder and outsourced chief investment officer of Fed Watch Advisors. Emons is joined by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey, chief US rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, senior US and Canada rates strategy associate, to discuss the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the implications for markets in the year ahead. They discuss moves across domestic markets, including curve behavior and drivers in Treasuries, as well as the potential for additional volatility across global markets in 2025. The trio also hits on cross-currency hedging costs and direction, as well as technical adjustments to Fed policy, as it attempts to alleviate some stress in funding markets.
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A new administration and the specter of inflation are among the levers for municipal bonds moving into next year. On this month’s Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by three bank strategists with differing takes on the municipal landscape for 2025.Peter Degroot, head of municipal research and strategy at JPMorgan; Vikram Rai, who leads municipal-markets strategy at Wells Fargo; and Mikhail Foux, chief of municipal research at Barclays reflect on this year’s muni performance and discuss their calls for the year ahead.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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Private credit has expanded toward $2 trillion for direct lending and related markets, with another $5 trillion in asset-based finance, making for ample lender opportunities in the view of Daniel Pietrzak, KKR partner and global head of private credit. Pietrzak rejoined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the market’s growth, the current risk climate and how the incoming presidential administration may influence the market opportunity. They also examine the recent growth in investment grade private credit, the risk transfer market and prospects for an active secondary.
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With credit markets enjoying a strong 2024 and with many uncertainties, charting the course for 2025 is a challenge. Will US trade policies slow Fed cuts and will ECB easing stay the course as priced, and what will this mean for credit? Will stubborn US yields filter into Europe? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Marc Rovers, Head of European Credit at Legal & General Investment Management, discuss the state of credit and the 2025 outlook for US and Europe.They tackle relative value across credit on both sides of the Atlantic; high yield and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; fundamental and curve views. They also detail the risks across the US, UK and Europe, including German and French politics.
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Emerging-market central banks have historically followed the Federal Reserve, yet 2025 will be a year of divergence as monetary and fiscal policy responses evolve. Sergey Goncharov, portfolio manager and head of fixed income Americas at Vontobel, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his year-ahead outlook for the EM fixed-income asset class. Goncharov and Sassower touch on issues ranging from US protectionism and Chinese stimulus to European growth and EM fund flows.
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Ol' Saint FICC is here to stuff your stockings with 2025 market outlooks from all your favorite podcast hosts. Rates, credit, municipals, EM, MBS, currencies, bankruptcy and volatility are all covered, while the team also takes a brief look back at memorable moments of 2024.
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“A marriage…chemistry… [and] shared vision” is how Bain Capital partner Angelo Rufino described investments centered around a new asset class of hybrid capital that combines features of debt and equity in a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku that took place live at Beard Group’s Distressed Investing Conference. As Head of Special Situations in North America as well as Head of Corporate Special Situations in Europe, Rufino shared his perspective on the bespoke nature and the “win-win” value proposition of a special situations product that provides both operational value-add and financing capital. (8:36)
Prior to that, Noel Hebert, head of Bloomberg Intelligence’s global credit strategy, and Philip Brendel, BI distressed-credit analyst, assessed the impact of an improved M&A environment in a Trump administration on distressed-debt supply. The podcast concludes with Negisa, Phil and Noel discussing the latest developments in Spirit Airlines, J&J’s talc bankruptcy, Yellow, Hertz, Avon and Hearthside. (52:27) -
The significant tightening in corporate bonds recently has left asset-backed securities looking cheaper, says Rod Chadehumbe, Bloomberg Intelligence’s asset-backed securities strategist. Chadehumbe is joined by host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the state of the US ABS market. The pair dive into the engineering of the various types of products, as well as the general risk-reward profiles available to investors. They also hit on the liquidity and volatility dynamics of the asset class, expectations for ABS relative value in 2025 and forecasts for new issuance in the coming year.
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Emerging-market assets are likely to swing on US-centric narratives, yet domestic growth and inflation dynamics may be of less concern than in previous cycles. Ricardo Adrogue, head of global sovereign debt and currencies at Barings, joinsDamian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to discuss the year-ahead outlook for EM credit, rates and foreign exchange. Adrogue and Sassower touch on issues ranging from US trade policy and EM remittances to Chinese deflation and a weaker euro.
The EM Lens podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. -
Deteriorating French political headlines are exacerbating the underwhelming French and euro-zone economic narrative, confirming what has become a compellingly euro bearish case into 2025. Still, talk of an existential risk to the currency appears premature, and much of the bad news is arguably priced in. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Elliot Hentov, global head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, about what could trigger a turnaround in Europe's fortunes and how that could impact asset allocations into 2025.
Elliot and Audrey also touch on president-elect Donald Trump's key appointments so far and what they may mean for policy -- particularly trade. -
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives an update on how the US bond market volatility has remained elevated to equity and FX volatility. Rates volatility may drift lower with the Fed in no hurry but greater conviction on the neutral rate will be the signal for a more meaningful decline given forecast dispersion of policy rates remains a key support.
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A slower exit environment for limited partners on the back of elevated rates and inflation has helped drive tremendous growth for the world of NAV lending over the past couple of years. David Philipp, partner in the Fund Liquidity Solutions Group at Crestline Investors, walks through the journey of the asset class with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch. The conversation gets into the evolution of the investor, public-market accessibility, synergies with adjacent Crestline strategies, LP concerns and much more.
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The biggest change to the Treasury market has been algorithmic trading, and the proliferation of high-frequency trading firms (HFTs) and principal trading firms (PTFs), those two are really the main market makers in the inter-dealer broker screens, says Dan Mulholland, senior managing director and head of sales and trading at Crews and Associates. Mulholland is joined by host, and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss evolutions in Treasury trading and market structure. The pair discuss the shifts in depth of book and liquidity intermediation throughout the market, in addition to the drivers and potential risks of the basis trade. They also discuss recent moves in the Treasury market and expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts, as well as how they may evolve into 2025.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. -
A collateralized loan obligation’s (CLO) reinvestment period is among the keys to the success for the asset class in the view of Eagle Point’s Founder and Managing Partner Tom Majewski. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this edition of Credit Crunch to walk through Eagle Points focus on the higher-risk tranches of a CLO structure, with an emphasis on equity. The discussion touches on holder concentration, the growth in covenant-lite loans, misconceptions around forced selling, synergies with private credit markets and much more.
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Artificial intelligence is reshaping the world of municipal bonds, with predictive analytics, data-driven decision-making and automated portfolio management just some of the ways the technology is transforming public finance. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano take a break from discussing the nuts and bolts of asset management and instead focus on the bits and bytes of how technology is applied to the municipal landscape. Joining us this month is Issac Kuofrom Parametric Portfolio Associates. Issac is a portfolio manager, technologist and painfully shy scratch golfer.
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Lenders must be “hyper-vigilant” at the whiff of a liability management exercise (LME), as cooperation agreements forged in response by the largest lenders often shut off membership once critical majorities are reached, according to Beach Point Capital’s senior vice president Jordan Sauer. Jordan shared with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel how his initial legal work at Wachtell Lipton with lender documentation served him well in identifying credit-agreement vulnerabilities and managing investments amid the jungle of LMEs and coop groups (6:20). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discussed the implications of a historically low high yield spread for credit investors. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion covering Franchise Group, Hertz, Yellow, Spirit Airlines, J&J, Incora, and CommScope (1:06:30).
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With the US election having a clear result and credit markets enjoying a strong run this year, charting the course forward is a challenge. Will a Trump regime slow down Fed cuts and will the ECB continue on its previous easing course, and what will this mean for credit? Will stubborn US yields cause more divergence in credit until 1H25? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and James Turner, Co-Head of EMEA fundamental fixed income at Blackrock, discuss the state of credit and gaps across the US and Europe.
They tackle relative value across credit in different currencies; junk and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; fundamental and curve views. They also detail the impact of elections across the US, UK and Europe. -
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut 25 bps in this election week, not a surprise, but Jerome Powell wasn’t as hawkish as might have been expected. Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest-Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Senior Government Analyst Nathan Dean to discuss the implications of the recent election cycle for the US economy and Treasury markets. They discuss the current state of executive policy uncertainty, and potential outcomes of various campaign promises, though Dean doesn’t think the debt ceiling is going to be an issue for the next four years. They also touch on potential changes in tax policies, fiscal budgets, and financial regulations.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. -
The cyclically-driven bullish dollar narrative got another boost last week, with President-elect Donald Trump's expected pro-growth stance implying a policy mix weighted more to fiscal stimulus and less to monetary steps, which would help the dollar. It's also better positioned if Trump pursues tariffs. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Dr Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist, about how the economy, the Fed rate outlook and the fiscal trajectory could affect our dollar outlook.
Anna and Audrey touch on how US fiscal woes could impact dollar views via a worsening fiscal premium, though the dollar's role as the global reserve currency won't be challenged any time soon. -
Geopolitical risk remains elevated, yet financial stability doesn’t appear to be a cause for concern as market practitioners turn their attention to year-end. Dr. Jason Wu, IMF assistant director of Monetary & Capital Markets, and Dr. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, join Damian Sassower, EM Lens podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to discuss the growth and inflation outlook for both advanced economies and emerging markets across the globe. Wu and Natalucci touch on issues ranging from central bank stimulus and US dollar debasement to term premia expansion and the evolution of private credit.
The EM Lens podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. - Visa fler
