Episode 8: Ben Tribbett Interview

19 apr · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections

00:00.77

Sam Shirazi

Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This episode, I will be interviewing Democratic consultant Ben Tribbett. He's the found founder of Pocket Aces Consulting.

00:14.91

Sam Shirazi

And I'm also old enough to remember when Ben had his blog, which was one of the original go-to sources for Virginia politics. And now you can get his talk hot takes on X.

00:28.06

Sam Shirazi

So Ben, what made you want to take the leap from giving hot takes online to starting your own consulting firm?

00:36.63

Ben

I got into politics when I was very young.

00:40.73

Ben

And so when I was in high school, I started doing volunteering for campaigns. And then I got to manage my first campaign when I was still a teenager, but which was for a Fairfax County school board race.

00:54.34

Ben

By the time I was 21, I managed my first winning delegate race where we unseated a Republican incumbent. And from that point, I was kind of off to the races from the consulting side of things.

01:06.01

Ben

And so I actually was there before I started the blog. And when I went to Las Vegas to play poker full time, I decided to start Not Larry Sabato, the blog, as a way to sort of stay in touch with Virginia while I was while i was playing poker.

01:21.88

Ben

So I did that for about a year and a half and got the blog off the ground. And so by the time I got back into political consulting, after I kind of winded down doing the, we'll call it the journalist thing for a few years,

01:35.14

Ben

you know, it was more of a return home for me than it was trying something new.

01:39.97

Sam Shirazi

Got it. Well, I did want to ask you one kind of interesting question about the gambling side of things, because I know Nate Silver and you seem to like gambling. Is there something that maybe attracts people to both politics and gambling?

01:54.21

Ben

Well, first of all, poker is a game of skill, not a game of chance, Sam. So poker players would not consider themselves gamblers. But I do also like to partake in other forms of gambling.

02:04.53

Ben

And I think you know anyone who is doing wagering, especially on stuff like sports, there's certainly a numbers component to it. And that's been the side of politics I've always been on is the looking at precinct numbers, looking at trends, looking at statistics.

02:22.44

Ben

And so I'm trying to figure out what that means and portends for the future. So there's certainly some overlap there.

02:29.24

Sam Shirazi

Got it. Well, I wanted to ask you about being a consultant because after Democrats lost the last election, there was a lot of blame directed at the consultant class. And can you just explain what a consultant does and why they're not all bad?

02:44.15

Ben

Yeah. Well, and I think a lot of that blame was deserved. I mean, the the Democratic consultant class structured very differently than what Republicans do. So when people say, you know, you're a campaign consultant, it means very different things if you're a Democratic consultant or a Republican.

03:03.45

Ben

Democrats tend to be structured in these very rigid sort of a pyramid of a campaign. It's a, you have a staffer on the ground and they have a consultant that deals with each aspect of the spends that they're doing. So they'll have a television consultant, a digital consultant, a male consultant, on larger campaigns, they might bring in an expert that's a field consultant.

03:29.83

Ben

And this is overlaid with your traditional staff. Obviously there's also fundraising consultants. the Republicans tend to do more of a model that is a general consultant. They put bring in one firm that sort of handles all these aspects of your campaign for you.

03:46.73

Ben

And that's the model that Democrats use in California. And that was really what, when we started Pocket Aces, while there's times in which we might do a aspect of a campaign for someone,

03:58.82

Ben

and go into that structure. Generally, our candidates, we're general consultants for, which makes us a very different product than what you see from other democratic firms in Virginia, because we handle everything from the start of a campaign to the finish if we're if we're asked to do that.

04:18.19

Ben

And it I think it makes a campaign People have commented before that they think some of our candidates have had better messaging, for example, like better themes.

04:28.43

Ben

And I think a lot of that revolves around the fact that what they're saying on television, what they're saying on radio, what they're saying in the mailbox, what they're saying on X and social media, it's all the same thing because they have the same people that are working on it instead of having different crews that are getting on a conference call for 10 minutes a week.

04:48.34

Sam Shirazi

I think so sometimes people are a little bit unsure about why the consultants are needed. So kiating can kind of explain the difference between like a campaign manager, or someone working directly on a campaign and why the consultants would need to also be there to kind of come in and help the campaign?

05:04.40

Ben

Yeah, so I think obviously you know each campaign's a little bit different, and I understand in some of the local races why there can be frustration with consultants because if you're running for the county board and in a county and these consultants don't know anything about your local issues, a lot of times people on the ground will say, well, why do we need somebody from DC to come in and tell us how to run for the the county board in Prince William County? Or or you know really, you can insert that anywhere.

05:32.20

Ben

And I think what consultants have is a broader look at the electorate because they're seeing it in so many different areas. So one of the places that we had a large amount of business in 2018 for Pocket Aces was in Orange County, California.

05:52.50

Ben

And it was, if you remember that cycle, sort of Orange County had been a Republican steadily Republican County in California. And in 2016, it flipped to Hillary and everyone realized, wow, there's a ton of stuff that might be in play here.

06:07.03

Ben

And the reason that we did so much work in Orange County, and and there were three Congressional that we worked on there that year, as well as some other races, was it had a lot of overlay with what we had seen in Virginia 2017. And And so as consultants, we were sought after because we had seen kind of the first effects of the Trump presidency, what voters in 2017 were moving against Trump, what voters are being mobilized for primaries, what new people you might expect to come into that primary, and what groups were respondent to different messages. and

06:44.10

Ben

And so, you know, in in Orange County, California, where you have a lot of diversity, know, There's a large Asian population. There's a large population of sort of upper income suburban women that were moving very quickly at that time towards the Democrats.

06:58.74

Ben

These were the exact same thing that had happened in Virginia the year before. And so from a consultant perspective, what a manager that's on the ground there might not be able to do is know exactly what's happening elsewhere and how that might apply to their race.

07:16.36

Ben

We see so much polling data. And look, I know Tip O'Neill said all politics is local, but in this era, all politics is national in terms of how the electorate moves.

07:27.80

Ben

You see very similar moves state to state among demographic groups. I think the reason that Nate Silver became as successful as he was in 08 where people thought he had uncorked this magic formula for 538, was he was really just applying statistics to what he was seeing from how demographic groups were moving and then predicting the outcome of those primaries between Hillary and Obama.

07:53.83

Ben

and And frankly, it was... following a very, very steady pattern state to state among how white working class voters were breaking versus African-American voters versus educated voters.

08:07.60

Ben

And the only place where you saw a real difference in the 08 primaries was Hillary was pulling more of the white vote in southern states.

08:18.54

Ben

There were a little bit more, you know, there was more of sort of African Americans voting for for Barack and white voters voting for Hillary in the south that was evident in those results. Otherwise, basically, it was a direct match group to group around the country in almost every state.

08:37.45

Ben

depending on whether you were looking at a caucus electorate or a primary. And so from a consultant perspective, when we're looking at these campaigns, the movement we see and in one area, if we see polls and in New York and New Jersey, they may very well have application to Virginia. That messaging may have application to Virginia.

08:55.76

Ben

And so that's what we're looking at from consultants is having that broader set of data and understanding what's moving people in this in this time. And you know right now, I would say, Sam, and I know it's a long-winded answer, but you know, as a candidate, you would need a consultant more than ever right now because politics is changing so quickly.

09:20.33

Ben

And so you would you would want to arm yourself with somebody who knew what groups had moved in the 2024 election and what groups were moving now since the 2024 election and whether those groups were over or underrepresented in your district and how you could best speak to them.

09:38.11

Ben

Now's the time you would want to have those kinds of people to be able to help you.

09:42.31

Sam Shirazi

I think it's helpful for people to to hear, you know, the value added that consultants have and not just the negative things you always hear online.

09:50.07

Ben

I would also say, Sam, a lot of people always, when they're saying you know negative things about consultants, and and look, there's plenty of negative things to say, but one of the things that was looking at is look how much money they're making.

10:01.95

Ben

But a lot of times that money that you see on the reports is very misleading. For example, when we do a mail piece for someone, that's the consultant is paying the printing and the postage as part of those payments you see go out. So you might see a check go to a consultant that's for $35,000.

10:20.77

Ben

that that We're probably clearing on something like that $2,000 $3,000. two or three thousand dollars And so while that's not always transparent as transparent as it could be on the finance reports, I think some of the anger that gets put towards campaigns having consultants is they people feel like they are sopping up all the campaign resources when oftentimes that's just not the case.

10:43.90

Sam Shirazi

Before I turn to Virginia, I had one last question because I think these are the people who are the real scam artists. So you've talked a lot about the scam packs and I would call it the grifter industrial complex.

10:54.88

Sam Shirazi

Can you explain the issue and what Democrats can do to address it and maybe why that's more of the real issue as opposed to consultants?

11:01.99

Ben

Yeah. So there's a few pieces of this. Number one is, and I'll make this statement and people are going to hear it and think immediately, well, I think that would ever come out of his mouth. But, the biggest problem facing the democratic party right now is small dollar donors.

11:19.71

Ben

And the reason that the small dollar donors are such a problem is that when large donors came in the party in the, in the past and, you know they might have interests that they were interested in. You might have someone who you know is donating to pro-choice candidates or someone who's donating to candidates who want to see more gun safety or you know go down the list.

11:39.68

Ben

They oftentimes have the the resources to know what's going on in campaigns, to know which candidates are competitive, to know which candidates are just kind of just putting out some b******t.

11:52.93

Ben

These small dollar donors don't have that information and they're set all over the country. So there's nowhere to how to communicate with them. And so they're coming into areas that they don't know anything about and helping to select candidates for those areas that are not necessarily the people who are strongest on the ground.

12:12.90

Ben

I think of that Kentucky Senate race from a few years ago where all the national Democratic donors decided that Amy McGrath was going to be the person who would unseat Mitch McConnell and pumped in tens of millions of dollars to her campaign.

12:27.47

Ben

Yet she barely emerged from a primary against a state rep who she outspent 50 to one because that she wasn't the kind of candidate that Democrats on the ground in Kentucky wanted to field.

12:39.80

Ben

And I think that the small dollar donors come in and they pervert this process. I think small dollar donors in your area, there's nothing more valuable that you can put together, but it's these donors from around the country that just sort of come in because they saw a tweet or they, they heard a name or they're recommended by a scam pack that took three quarters of their donation. And, and they're coming in supporting candidates that they don't know anything about.

13:06.69

Ben

I'm, i think frequently, these donors are supporting people in primaries. They don't even know there's a primary going on, right? They think that they're just seeing a tweet that goes out that says, this is our Democratic candidate, and and they're interfering in primaries that they don't know are are ongoing.

13:23.06

Ben

You know, in the in last cycle, and this is a seat we would never be able to carry, but we spent so much money, millions and millions of dollars against Marjorie Taylor Greene.

13:35.72

Ben

In one of the most Republican seats in the country because people want to donate against her. And look, in the general election, that's going to happen. But I will tell you, that started all the way in the primary. And there were three candidates who were running in that primary, two of which ran digital strategies to raise a lot of money, the third of which was actually an elected official that lived in the district.

13:56.98

Ben

Right. And they got completely overrun by the two candidates who did a bunch of digital spending, neither of whom were even lived in the district. They both moved in to to the district just to run and and and basically gripped off of these donors.

14:16.06

Ben

And you see these scam packs come in and they amplify these candidates. It's, it's, it's never supporting strong candidates. It's always supporting candidates that are, uh, want to partner with them and are going to give them the biggest cut of the donations.

14:32.18

Ben

And it's really become a cancer on the party because it deters stronger candidates from running. Now, in Virginia, we don't face this as badly because we have unlimited campaign contributions.

14:45.76

Ben

And the upside of a limited of unlimited contributions, and I know this is probably big money out VA is not going to like hearing this, right? But the upside of the unlimited contributions is if somebody is getting that kind of support, there's ways to catch up to them.

15:00.98

Ben

In a federal race for Congress, for example, where you have donation limits, if someone comes in and raises millions and millions of dollars from the grassroots from around the country, you never have a chance to even compete with them.

15:15.19

Ben

And so, you know, we saw this in the 7th District last year where, you know, Eugene Vindman, I think, won by 44 points in the early vote and by Election Day was winning by, i think, ballpark 10 points.

15:27.30

Ben

Once the other candidates had done a little bit of communication, it was a competitive race. But early on, the race wasn't competitive because none of the other candidates had the resources to talk to voters publicly.

15:40.33

Ben

early on. And so he he may not have been the candidate that people chose to nominate had national small dollar donors not been interfering in it to allow the voters in that district to figure out who they wanted to be their member of Congress.

15:54.00

Sam Shirazi

I think that's all really helpful for people who are trying to kind understand the mechanics of politics. And I could ask you about this stuff all day, but I know we have to move on to Virginia stuff. So I will ask you generally about Virginia. You know, what are the vibes? You mentioned 2017. Is this kind of 2017 type vibe? What are you thinking is going on this year? you know Obviously, more so at the governor's race, but if you want to talk about any of the other races going on.

16:20.27

Ben

Yeah, so far it feels bigger than 17. the The wave that we're likely to catch this year just feels like it's absolutely massive. I think the 2017 wave was primarily driven from surges in turnout. Yeah.

16:40.65

Ben

And turnout surges are worth one vote each. And so what I mean by that is when you start to persuade voters and you move someone from the other side to your side, it's worth two votes for you in a campaign if youre if that person's a regular voter because they go from being a plus one to a minus one or vice versa, in this case, a minus one to a plus one.

17:04.92

Ben

So it's a two vote swing. When you turn somebody out, who otherwise might not have voted, they're worth one vote to you because they go from a zero to a plus one instead of a minus one to a plus one, if that makes sense.

17:18.59

Ben

And so you get much bigger swings in the electorate when you see people moving away from a party or candidates than you do when it's just some groups are really excited about it.

17:32.53

Ben

And 17 was really the story of excitement You saw the Republicans were more excited than they had been in any cycle in Virginia governor history with Ed Gillespie.

17:46.15

Ben

And they still got completely blown out because the Democratic excitement was that much greater for Ralph Northam, who got, I think, around a half million more votes than Terry McAuliffe had gotten four years earlier.

17:57.60

Ben

That was a turnout surge. What I'm feeling happened this year is not just a turnout surge. I'm feeling a movement away from the Republican Party. There's so many people that voted for Trump that are realizing he was serious about everything he said, and some of some of whom are losing their jobs, some of whom are feeling other impacts of the Trump presidency in real ways to their families.

18:23.44

Ben

that are going to move them from being, you know again, minus one voters to plus one voters. And when you get those kind of movements in the electorate, seats that you never imagined can suddenly come into play very quickly.

18:35.96

Ben

Places that you thought might be competitive for pickups turn into landslides very quickly because the electorate moves so much faster with that. And I just everything I'm seeing on the ground, all the numbers I'm seeing is telling me that this is a year that you're going to see voters switching and surging.

18:55.11

Ben

And that would lead to a historic type of win for the Democrats, who have never, by the way, Sam, in the modern history, won a governor's race in Virginia by double digits.

19:06.24

Ben

But if I was setting a Las Vegas line, I would absolutely put the line and as a starting point in the double digits for this year.

19:14.91

Sam Shirazi

I think most people think the Democrats are favored, but it's certainly, you you make a compelling case that it it could not be that, it might end up being not that close.

19:24.80

Sam Shirazi

And I guess, you know, I'm trying to grapple with, you know, what exactly is going on and and how big of a surge there is. And and and how much vote switching there is, as you mentioned.

19:35.50

Sam Shirazi

And I think the thing that I'm trying to think through is what what is the Republican plan? Because it just seems like they're a little bit deer in the headlights, don't really have a lot of plans to counter what's going on.

19:48.02

Sam Shirazi

And so do you think there's a way the Republicans can kind of right the ship to maybe... You know, realistically, it might be hard for them to win, but maybe they'll kind of get get a competitive and maybe the House of Delegates, they don't lose that many seats.

20:01.57

Sam Shirazi

You know, you do you think that's possible or kind of the the train's already left the station?

20:05.99

Ben

Well, the train's leaving the station. i think what the Republicans are likely to to do when they get their numbers back this fall is to, when you're having both a surge against you in terms of turnout and voters are leaving you, the first problem you've to deal with is the voters leaving you.

20:23.95

Ben

I mean, I think you're already seeing the Republicans picking up on this. You saw that the purple caucus got formed from the House Republicans this week where they're calling themselves the the purple district or the purple Republicans. that I don't know.

20:38.25

Ben

I saw the list of them. i couldn't really differentiate from any of them, you know, like what made them purple other than they had a marginal district. I don't think all their voting records are all that purple is purple.

20:50.37

Ben

my point, but I think they're going to be looking at how do we hold some of these voters that are fleeing the Republican party? Because you're not going to be able to solve this just with a surge of going to the base and getting more base turnout.

21:07.70

Ben

And so, you know, that's probably going to be for them breaking with Trump is going to be the only pathway that they have to trying to hold some of those voters. And that, of course, is dangerous and double-edged and you know creates all sorts of perils for the campaign.

21:25.16

Ben

But I think they're going to have to look at that kind of strategy as a as a way to try to deal with the people leaving, because turnout just ain't going to cut it this year.

21:35.94

Ben

It's just not, it's, you can't, you can't turn, there aren't enough voters to turn out in a state that the Republicans already lost to go win it just by turning out the base.

21:46.06

Sam Shirazi

you might see some individual delegates maybe trying to distance themselves from Trump. Do you really think the Republicans, you know, statewide are going to do anything to try to distance themselves from Trump? Because it seems like the mentality is we're just going down with the ship. if And if if Trump takes us down, you know, it is what it is.

22:03.77

Sam Shirazi

I haven't seen any of them really try to distinguish themselves from Trump.

22:08.87

Ben

Yeah, I think you know each person has to kind of look at their own politics on this. you know For example, Jason Merez, who's the attorney general. I think that there's probably a spot in the administration for him if he's not successful.

22:24.23

Ben

So I doubt that he wants to to go blow up his relationships in order to, you know, potentially, let's say hypothetically lose by eight instead of lose by 15. Right.

22:35.81

Ben

So I think he's probably more go down with the ship. I think. somebody like a Pat Herity is probably more likely to see some breakage from Trump if he was to emerge as the Republican nominee for LG.

22:48.67

Ben

And Winston Sears obviously has in the past had some breakage with Trump. So she could always go back towards emphasizing that now that she's through her primary season. But again, like I said a few minutes ago, but you know if if we were sitting in a sports book right now and the the book put up a line of Spanberger minus eight and a half,

23:09.24

Ben

which is about the record of a Democrat in Virginia, I can't imagine that there wouldn't be a lot more votes for Spanberger minus eight and a half than Sears plus eight and a half right now.

23:19.31

Sam Shirazi

it's just kind of the reality the Republicans have to start to grapple with. I did want to ask you about, you know, after 2025, because you mentioned 2017, Democrats learned some lessons that they applied 2018.

23:32.14

Sam Shirazi

ah ah twenty eighteen Do you think after 2025, there are going to be lessons that Democrats can apply in 2026? Obviously, it's still early, but it sounds like, you know, you there might be a playbook that that's being successful in Virginia that could be applied next year in the midterms.

23:49.74

Ben

Yeah, this is the they look, this is the the test case. And I'm having already talking to candidates, you know, when they're running around the country that they want to know what's going on in Virginia. What are we seeing from our polling in Virginia? And they'll all be studying the results that come out of Virginia that give them some idea what they might see and in their areas.

24:10.15

Ben

and and And look, the same way that we look to other states, I think Hampton Roads, for example, which has been an area of Virginia that you know has bounced around and in recent years, that the Northern Virginia and Richmond suburbs have been consistently moving to Democrats, that Hampton Roads suburbs have been oh sometimes moving towards Democrats, but occasionally have bounced back towards Republicans in other cycles.

24:35.91

Ben

It's bounced around a little bit. It's not the straight line that you see in Northern Virginia and the Richmond suburbs. And so you know I look at the special election that happened in Florida last month, and in a Navy town in Pensacola, that county voted Democrat for Congress.

24:55.58

Ben

For the first time since they had voted for Bill Nelson, I think 20 some years ago in a race that he was barely contested in and in the in terms of a serious election, probably 40, 50 years so since they had voted for a Democratic candidate.

25:09.75

Ben

Well. What groups are overrepresented in Pensacola that are less represented in other districts? and And, of course, veterans would go right to the top of your list of you would suspect that is a movement against the Republican Party amongst people in the military or veterans, which wouldn't surprise me at all with some of the things going on with this administration. And so, you know, that would immediately make you in Virginia circle. Well, obviously, Virginia O2 goes right to the top of your list of, okay, if that's happening, that seed is very likely to flip back to us.

25:43.88

Ben

And Virginia 1, you start to look at and say, oh maybe Virginia 1 is in play. And I even start to to think, you know is this a cycle that's big enough that you know a few months from now, we're seeing a strong candidate emerge in Virginia 5?

26:01.44

Ben

That's going to be make it competitive because, you know, the the height of the Democratic wave is when Tom Perriello was successful in Virginia five. And the math does allow you there where you could win it.

26:13.53

Ben

But you would have to be at the very, very top of a wave.

26:16.53

Sam Shirazi

if you just look at 2018, there was a big blue wave and in Virginia. And I think, you know, the way things are going, that's a possibility in 2026. 2025.

26:25.16

Sam Shirazi

I did want to shift gears to one question about an issue that is kind of near and dear to your heart, and and it's a local Northern Virginia issue. It is the Fairfax Casino. So can you explain to everyone why a casino in Fairfax, like Tyson's Corner area, is a good idea and how people would vote for it in a referendum? Because I think there's certainly been a decent amount of opposition to it.

26:49.70

Ben

Yeah, I mean, Sam, I'm the head of a group called the Virginia Players Alliance, which I founded a few years ago that advocates for more gaming in Virginia that is friendly to the consumer.

27:04.16

Ben

And so what we're really focused on from the Players Alliance perspective is making sure that the as Virginia expands its gaming opportunities, that it's done in ways that are fair for the players.

27:15.28

Ben

And that the the payouts are fair for the players and that the the things that come with gambling are an asset to the community. And so we jumped all over the opportunity to help with the Fairfax project because there's so many possibilities that come with that. I think you know talking about a but Fairfax County finally getting for the first time its own sort of tourism industry based here when you have a convention center.

27:45.51

Ben

fairfax The Fairfax board has been asking for this for my entire adult lifetime. And no one's been willing to build this convention center because the economics of a standalone convention center just don't work in Fairfax County.

28:01.16

Ben

But one that was attached to a high-end casino and hotel, the economics would work for it. And we would finally be able to host major conferences in the county.

28:11.85

Ben

The revenue that comes from a casino, especially a high-end one in a place like Tyson's Corner, allows you hundreds of millions of dollars between the state and local government to spend on schools and other public needs.

28:26.56

Ben

And that doesn't even factor in the actual economic boost that the economy gets from the thousands of well-paid union jobs that go into a facility like this. And so, you know, to me, it's a no-brainer.

28:39.86

Ben

We have MGM across the river. Anyone who's been there knows that it's it's a safe place to go. It's what a high-end casino looks and feels like.

28:49.100

Ben

And it generates hundreds of millions of dollars. of for Maryland and for Prince George's County, a big chunk of which comes from Virginians. And so I think there's a lot of people in Northern Virginia that are looking at this saying, you know this isn't a gambling discussion because it's already here.

29:11.18

Ben

The General Assembly's already legalized us to do unlimited sports betting on our phones from home. And so you know when we're talking about gaming, how do we do it in a way that it's attracting people in from outside of the community that are leaving their money here and having a great time doing it instead of just being targeted to people in in our communities, right?

29:36.100

Ben

And I think, you know, the cat's out of the bag on on gaming in Virginia. I mean, I can go on my phone now, log on the Virginia Lottery website, and I don't know, Sam, if you ever go into these things, but you can now, there's slot machines on the Virginia Lottery website.

29:55.09

Ben

and you can go up to $50 a spin on these slot machines. And if you hit the the the little more spins button or the programming thing when you're logged in, first you load up the $50 spins, you can load up to 100 spins per push of the button that's preset. In other words, the button on the $50 machine will light up where you can bet $5,000 per push the button per push of the button on the Virginia Lottery website on the slot machines that they have to order 100 spins of $50 each right off the top.

30:31.64

Ben

The idea that we have that, but we can't have a high-end facility in a place like Tyson's Corner, that could attract in, uh, people that, uh, allows for a social aspect versus people doing this from their home, that's safer for people that brings in tourism.

30:50.25

Ben

to me, it's just asinine. So I think as all these facts kind of get to presented to voters, a lot of the opposition melts away, because it's, it's not really a discussion about, uh,

31:01.84

Ben

gaming, gaming's already here. It's a discussion about whether or not we want to keep some of this revenue in our community and whether we want to have it in in one facility. and And I'll tell you, Sam, from a player perspective, having a casino is a lot safer for players because they have programs to go find problem gamblers, to pull them off of the floor, to make sure that people aren't wagering when they're too drunk or too high or you know exhibiting other problem behaviors, none of those things are available when people are betting from home, when you can't see them and talk to them.

31:40.68

Ben

And so I think we want to encourage, you know from from my perspective, and you know I think this is something that Players Alliance is advocating for, we want gaming more gaming in person in these types of facilities versus things on our phones.

31:56.63

Sam Shirazi

Well, I think you certainly make a strong case for the casinos. I guess the the question I have, you know having looked at the Richmond casino referendum and the fact that you know Fairfax is wealthier community, and as you probably know better than I do, the electorate is going to be older and whiter and wealthier.

32:09.58

Ben

Thank

32:16.92

Sam Shirazi

you know How do you think a referendum would go? Do you you have a sense of Yeah, my sense is the the opposition is going to say this doesn't make sense in Fairfax County. you've You've laid out a good case about why it might make sense.

32:30.53

Sam Shirazi

But is that going to be able to carry the day, particularly when Richmond rejected the casino not too long ago?

32:37.85

Ben

Yeah. You know, Richmond rejected the casino the first time in a year where it was passing everywhere else in Virginia. It was on the ballot. So it seems like there were some unique factors that were going on there.

32:48.67

Ben

And that may have been related to the campaign that they ran. it could be related. I wouldn't necessarily say that there was a, that Richmond is a a canary in the coal mine about Fairfax County.

33:01.52

Ben

You know, Referendums are always touchy things in Northern Virginia. Fairfax County is known for voting no on it's voted no on bonds before, it's voted no on when the Board of Supervisors wanted to institute a meals tax two times, county residents rejected it. even Even in the year in 2016 when Hillary was on the ballot and Democrats were winning overwhelmingly in the county, the meals tax was failing 54 to 46.

33:30.38

Ben

My experience from having run campaigns in Fairfax is nothing is popular in Fairfax until you make a choice with it. And so I think with the casino, what you will see happen is the more that the casino is discussed in terms of you can have the revenue from the casino or you can pay higher real estate taxes.

33:54.58

Ben

You can have the revenue from the casino or we can pay our teachers less. You can have the revenue from a casino or you can have a meals tax or any of the other choices that the county has to make.

34:07.26

Ben

You see people flock to they want the casino. And so I think that the that campaign will be fundamentally about what the choices are that voters have and how how well the campaign is able to educate voters on what that choice is.

34:23.43

Ben

I know the second referendum in Richmond, there was a lot of controversy around. The mayor kind of strong-armed it a little bit to say, i think it was childcare issues. you know We won't have childcare in Richmond. We won't fund these unless unless you pass the casino. And people were, i think, put off by that.

34:42.71

Ben

I don't think this needs to be done in a threatening way. I think it's just done in a factual way. that voters can understand. Like, look, you can either have the hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue from this that the county board can put to your priorities, or you're going to pay it in a different way.

35:00.47

Ben

And we also have to remember that what the electorate looks like in Fairfax County this November, next November, any future November in the Trump era is rapidly changing.

35:13.79

Ben

the county budget is under tremendous pressure right now. All the Northern Virginia counties are facing this enormous budgetary pressure that's being created from the layoffs, from the real estate market, from the commercial real estate market and the residential.

35:32.67

Ben

And they're used to... Gold-plated services. They're used to having, you know, decent-sized class size in schools. They're used to having enough money being paid to teachers that you can recruit and retain quality teachers.

35:48.41

Ben

And I don't think Northern Virginia counties are ever going to get to a place where they're not going to prioritize that first. And if the choice on that is creating a tourism industry that has a casino and a location in Tyson's Corner, or again, raising class size or cutting teacher pay or doing any other number of things that would you know create hundreds of millions of dollars of savings in the county budget, I think that, again, voters are going to flock towards give us the casino.

36:19.92

Sam Shirazi

Well, we'll see what happens next year at the General Assembly. I'm sure it'll be a hot topic next year as well. All right, Ben. Well, thanks so much for taking the time to talk to me. I did want to just leave with one question about your X account, because i know that it is one of my go-to sources on election night. You're always the first to make the calls, and I think you're always 100% right. So I'm always impressed with that. And i've I've tried to emulate it, but I don't think I'm as ever as good as you and as quick as you. So kudos to your X account.

36:49.26

Sam Shirazi

I did want to say... you know You certainly have a little bit of a different style than me. i I tend to be pretty tame on my ex account. Sometimes you have some spicy takes on there and you also, i would say, air are some personal beef you have with various people.

37:05.72

Sam Shirazi

you know Why do you feel the need to do that? And is that kind of what you think people want to see? Or is it more just kind of, you know you feel like that's where you want to express yourself?

37:17.25

Ben

I just, I've always felt like, you know, I'm in politics to be real about it. And I'm going to tell people what I actually think. In terms of a lot of people will give me the feedback of like, well, you're a consultant. How can you, how can you say these things? Because you might lose a client over it.

37:35.97

Ben

Oftentimes i think it actually helps us pick up clients because we have, we're in primaries and primaries are, heavily competitive, and a lot of times Democrats are afraid to say in primaries what the distinction is between the candidates.

37:50.78

Ben

And I'm not afraid to tell people what the the choices are and why we chose to support a particular candidate because I think they're a better choice. And you know I know that there's a lot of people out there that can sometimes be a little uncomfortable with that, but especially in an area like Northern Virginia,

38:10.47

Ben

where the primaries are the election, we either lay out those choices for people or we continue to win elections and not get anything done. And voters deserve to know, you know, last year, for example, and i guess it's now a year and a half ago, you know, we took on Stella Pekarski's race against George Barker in the primary. And a lot of people said, you can't do that. You know, you won't be able to work for a number of different candidates around the state because you're taking on the the chairman of Senate Finance in a Democratic primary.

38:40.90

Ben

but we really felt that you know Stella was a better representative for that district and put our necks out to tell people about George Barker's voting record and why he should go. And, you know, the same thing, we got involved in the the famous Lucas versus Spruill primary.

38:57.69

Ben

Most of the consultants around the state went into hiding for that primary. yeah

39:02.87

Sam Shirazi

Yeah.

39:03.06

Ben

oh my we we were I was really proud to, you know, I've been working with Senator Lucas for 25 years to tell people why I thought she was the the person we needed at that time.

39:03.12

Sam Shirazi

and

39:11.79

Ben

And I think, you know, you look at what happened with the arena the year after that election and you know i I look back on that and say, boy, did she prove us right? And so you know I'm just not afraid to get in there and mix it up. And and I know that's not everyone's style, but what I have found is a lot of times when people first get involved, they're too nervous to do that stuff. And by the time they've been hanging around the block for 10 years or so,

39:38.43

Ben

they're pretty much all telling me like, yeah, go for it. Like it's time to go send a message. So I get most of my negative feedback on that that stuff from people that are just saying like, well, why can't we just elect Democrats? Well, we don't need to just elect Democrats. We need to elect better Democrats and we have to hold our are Democrats accountable.

39:57.90

Ben

You know, I would, Sam, if you don't mind like me filibustering for a second to say like, you know, the situation we have in Fairfax right now, where you have the school board budget chair being sued for embezzling money from a company.

40:13.98

Ben

This is asinine. The idea that like the school board, which is entirely controlled by Democrats, isn't able to even act.

40:23.83

Ben

theyre not They don't need to remove him from the school board. That's up to him whether he wants to resign or not. But that they're going to keep him in a leadership position overseeing the budget while there's like serious allegations of embezzlement.

40:37.61

Ben

this This is crazy town stuff that just leads to the the the party looking bad. It hurts our statewide candidates. It's the kind of story that easily shows up on Fox News to label the Democrats nationally.

40:51.57

Ben

It's just bad news for us. and And I think the only way you see that stuff change is when you hold them accountable. And I'll tell you last year, you know using that school board as an example, It wasn't until a number of us got involved criticizing them for not having gotten involved with the the the football team that was not following all the rules in Fairfax County that the that the that situation was resolved itself.

41:21.82

Ben

And prior to people sort of raising their voices on it, The school board was going to allow this team to go beat everyone 98 to nothing. That was essentially an all-star team.

41:32.62

Ben

And a bunch of kids were sort of ending their high school athletic career disappointed that they weren't allowed a fair chance to compete. And the school board was not going to do anything until we until we all started speaking about it and then they decided to. So I think oftentimes holding the Democrats accountable, you see it works.

41:54.25

Ben

They're afraid of their next election. And and they don't they want people to think they're doing a good job. And so, you know, again, like this is a new situation now of, you know, the school board members that speak up and say, look, we can't have someone accused of embezzlement that's chairing our budget committee.

42:12.95

Ben

I think they're going to do a lot better in the next election than the ones that say there's nothing we can do and cover up their eyes and pretend ears and pretend like they don't see it happening.

42:22.56

Sam Shirazi

Well, no one can ever accuse you of not speaking your mind. So I know everyone appreciates your hot takes on X, or at least they they take a look, even if they don't always agree with them. But but I do appreciate you always you know giving your opinions on things and being willing to come on here and and share some thoughts. And I think part of the reason I wanted you on was so that people got to know you a little bit. You're not just some random guy on X, you're you're a real human and you actually have, you know, a lot of insights into what's going on in Virginia this year. So Ben, thanks. Thanks again for coming on.

42:52.87

Ben

Yeah, thank you, and congratulations on getting this thing started.

42:56.10

Sam Shirazi

Thanks so much. And see here everyone next week on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

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Episode 17: Primary Lessons
21 jun· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will go over the Virginia primary that happened on Tuesday and I also wanted to look ahead to November and some lessons that could be learned from the Virginia primary.
00:14.77
Sam Shirazi
Now, I did a podcast appearance on the Virginia Press Room with my friend Michael Lee Pope, who has that podcast. I recommend listening to that podcast, both for the episode that I was on, but also generally because I think he does a really good job covering Virginia politics. Maybe some of the things that I don't necessarily do, which is more the statehouse coverage. I do more elections. But if you want to check out Virginia Press Room, really good, comprehensive coverage of what's going on in Virginia.
00:40.86
Sam Shirazi
And in my Virginia Press Room appearance, I talked a little bit kind of the lieutenant governor's race, attorney general race. I went through some of the House of Delegates races. Obviously, I did the podcast right after the primary where I gave you my initial thoughts and I was a little bit tired. I had little bit more energy now to talk about the primary.
01:00.42
Sam Shirazi
And so instead of just kind of going through who won, who lost, I thought what I would do is I'd look kind of big picture what happened and what it might mean for November. and And what I mean by that is I think there's some interesting general information about what's going on in Virginia and what happen in November.
01:17.15
Sam Shirazi
So to begin with, let's start with the lieutenant governor's race. And, you know, I talked about it. I think the big surprise in lieutenant governor's race was that Ghazala Hashmi was able to win the Richmond area by a lot.
01:29.74
Sam Shirazi
And LeVar Stoney relatively didn't do as well in Richmond. And the other thing I thought was interesting, both in the AG race and in lieutenant governor's race, is Northern Virginia. I feel like all the candidates spent a lot of time in Northern Virginia. They were all competing. And frankly, Northern Virginia was pretty much awash in both the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General race, because I think all the campaigns spent all this time and money there. It was pretty much tied. And so while obviously there's a lot of votes in Northern Virginia, the candidates needed to do well there.
01:56.22
Sam Shirazi
they They all did pretty much what they needed to do in Northern Virginia. So the races were actually decided in other parts of Virginia. And I think the Lieutenant Governor's race really was decided in the Richmond area because Ghazala Hashmi and LeBar Stoney were really competing for the votes.
02:09.94
Sam Shirazi
And Hashmi was able to come out on top and she was able to win Richmond City. And, you know, I kind of want to talk about the Richmond area and looking forward to November. And the reason I say that is I think during the first Trump administration, the story of Virginia was really...
02:26.78
Sam Shirazi
the solid blue nature of Northern Virginia. So Northern Virginia had always been pretty blue, but during the Trump years, it just kept getting bluer and bluer. When Trump first came into office, there was actually a decent amount of House of Delegates seats in places like Fairfax that were controlled by the Republicans, which is kind of crazy to think about right now. But the Republicans lost a bunch of seats in Northern Virginia during the first Trump era.
02:49.51
Sam Shirazi
Northern Virginia became really, really deep blue. and I think, you know, at some point Northern Virginia because has kind of hit its ceiling for Democrats.
03:00.41
Sam Shirazi
they're pretty much at the point where they've gotten as many people to become Democrats in Northern Virginia as they can. And I don't know if it's going to keep getting bluer and bluer. And, you know, obviously that could be a problem for Virginia Democrats if they don't find new votes and potentially they might be losing more rural voters.
03:17.69
Sam Shirazi
And that's where Richmond comes in. And I liked what Chaz Nadiqom said about the Richmond area for the lieutenant governor's race. It was essentially like the king and or queen maker of the primary because...
03:29.98
Sam Shirazi
Richmond area is becoming more Democratic. And I think more of the focus in the future for the Democratic Party in Virginia will be the Richmond area because they have a lot of room to grow in the Richmond area. Partly that's because people are moving down from Northern Virginia down I-95 to Richmond because it's more affordable relatively to Northern Virginia.
03:48.81
Sam Shirazi
And I also think Richmond area has what are called like ancestral Republican area. So it used to be that places like Henrico and Chesterfield were actually pretty Republican. And now those have both become relatively more democratic.
04:02.65
Sam Shirazi
But there are still kind of outer Richmond suburbs, places like Hanover and Goochland that are still pretty Republican, but they're starting to become less and less Republican. And so I think there's this combination of population growth in the general area and then people becoming more Democratic.
04:20.48
Sam Shirazi
And I think there is a story potentially in November of the Richmond area becoming kind of more of a center of power for the Democrats in Virginia. And i could see a scenario where in Trump one, it was really about Northern Virginia for the Virginia Democrats.
04:37.66
Sam Shirazi
And in Trump two, this focus shifts to the Richmond area, and that's where they're going to see a lot of their gains. And so we saw a little preview of that, I think, with the lieutenant governor primary, where Richmond really became one of the ground zeros of that campaign. And it was a little bit won and lost in the Richmond area for Ghazal Hashmi and LeVar Stoney, respectively.
05:00.84
Sam Shirazi
Now, I did also want to talk about some of the primaries in the House of Delegates that happened. And i'm not the way I'm going to do this is I'm not going to go primary by primary, but I'm going to talk about three House seats in the Richmond area,
05:13.51
Sam Shirazi
that the Republicans currently control that had primaries on Tuesday. So those seats are House District 57, House District 73, and House District 75. And all three of those seats, basically the Democrats that I expected to win those primaries ended up winning those primaries. So in House District 57, the Democratic nominee will be May Navarre.
05:36.68
Sam Shirazi
In House District 73, the Democratic nominee will be Leslie Mehta. And in House District 75, the Democratic nominee will be Lindsey Daughtry. And so all three of those districts are somewhat similar. I'd say House District 57 and House District 73 are more similar in that they are more traditionally Republican seats that each cycle has become more friendly to the Democrats.
05:58.79
Sam Shirazi
House District 57, I often mention, is the most likely seat to flip. House District 73 is going to be a ah tougher lift for Democrats, but certainly they have an opportunity there. And House District 75 is a little bit of more of a mix of suburban and working class areas.
06:13.58
Sam Shirazi
But I also think the Democrats have a good shot at that seat. And so those are three Richmond area seats that the Democrats could potentially flip. And so you're seeing this scenario where the Richmond area could potentially be really big for the Democrats this November. And if you think about it,
06:31.21
Sam Shirazi
At the top of the ticket, Abigail Spanberger comes from the Richmond suburbs. Ghazal Hashmi comes from the Richmond suburbs. So I think there's going to be a lot of interesting dynamics in play. And, you know, it's just something to keep in mind where basically now Northern Virginia might be kind of set in in the sense of it's pretty much, you know, pretty static in terms of the vote share that the Democrats and Republicans are gonna get.
06:55.66
Sam Shirazi
I will say in outer Northern Virginia, places like Loudon and Prince William, there there still might be a little bit of movement, but places like Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, for the most part, I mean, ah ah kind of set in in their voting patterns.
07:08.86
Sam Shirazi
And so I do think there's gonna these interesting shifts that might happen more in the Richmond area. And so that's something to keep an eye on. and And we definitely saw the influence and strength of the Richmond area in the Lieutenant Governor primary.
07:19.90
Sam Shirazi
All right. Now let's move on to the attorney general primary, because I think it was a little bit of a different dynamic. As I mentioned, Northern Virginia was almost a tie. I think Shannon Taylor did ah slightly better in Northern Virginia, but not by enough that she could win.
07:32.92
Sam Shirazi
And then in the Richmond area, it was, again, pretty close. I think Shannon Taylor ended up getting a decent margin from Henrico, but J. Jones was able to do better than he needed to in Richmond and Chesterfield. And so that kind of made Richmond also a wash in the attorney general's race.
07:50.56
Sam Shirazi
Really, the place that Jay Jones won the attorney general primary was in Hampton Roads. That was his base. He always needed to do wear well there. And he did well there. He got a lot of votes out Norfolk.
08:01.19
Sam Shirazi
And that general area with ah ah Virginia Beach, Portsmouth, Hampton. And so I want to focus on Hampton Roads because I think it often doesn't get as much attention certainly as Northern Virginia. But Hampton Roads is is actually a pretty big area. There's a lot of different jurisdictions.
08:19.99
Sam Shirazi
So you don't always hear about one city. But combined, there are a lot of people that live in Hampton Roads. And typically it's more of a political battle battleground. I would say it certainly leans towards the Democrats, but it does see big swings between elections.
08:35.04
Sam Shirazi
And the the voting patterns here are, I would say, more similar to other parts of the South, like the New South, like areas like North Carolina, Georgia. You have more college-educated white voters there that are starting to move towards the Democrats and away from the Republicans.
08:51.25
Sam Shirazi
And so I think Hampton Roads is another area where Spanberger potentially could be making gains, especially with white college educated voters who may have traditionally been Republicans, but maybe this cycle will end up voting for her.
09:04.28
Sam Shirazi
I think the big question mark for the Democrats in November in Hampton Roads are African American voters. I think it helps that Jay Jones is going to be on the ticket. He's from Hampton Roads. He's African American.
09:15.27
Sam Shirazi
That will help motivate some of those voters to come out. And you often see that sometimes the issue is not that these voters are voting for the Republicans. It's just that they don't turn out, especially in these off-year elections.
09:26.87
Sam Shirazi
And there are some House seats in the Hampton Roads area that certainly could flip. And one of them had a primary on Tuesday. That's House District 89. And both the Republicans and Democrats had a primary.
09:39.76
Sam Shirazi
And pretty much the candidates we expected to win those primaries won them. That was Michael Lamine. Actually, I think he goes by Mike. Mike Lamine. And then for the Democrats, it was Karen Robbins Carnegie.
09:52.96
Sam Shirazi
So those were... who I expected to win those primaries. And that district specifically has a decent African-American population. Obviously, the Democrats need to get out those voters in order to win that district.
10:04.20
Sam Shirazi
And so that is one of the dynamics I'm going to be looking for. And, you know, I think it was kind of interesting. I had kind of kept saying, yeah, Northern Virginia super important for both the LG and AG race. Like, we really need to figure out what's going on in Northern Virginia.
10:19.10
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, all the candidates also thought that. And I mean, it makes sense. That's where most of the votes are. But what you had this weird dynamic where both in LG and AG, Northern Virginia was pretty much split by all the candidates. And so the the race was decided in other places. And I think in the attorney general race, um was decided in Hampton Roads in favor for Jay Jones.
10:41.40
Sam Shirazi
So a lot of people had commented that this is the first time the Virginia Democrats didn't have a Northern Virginia candidate in a long time. And I think people have gone back and tried to figure it out.
10:52.97
Sam Shirazi
Technically, I think this is the first time since 1985 that the Virginia Democrats have not had a Northern Virginia person on the ticket. And i think in some ways that helps them because, you know, the reality is Northern Virginia has seen a lot of the federal fallout. It's already pretty democratic. It has a lot of college educated voters. It already has a lot of high propensity voters.
11:14.07
Sam Shirazi
Reality is Northern Virginia is probably going to come out this November. And so we talked about some of the dynamics with the Richmond area and also with Hampton Roads. We talked about that dynamic. So I think it's important that the ticket for the Democrats actually doesn't have a Northern Virginia candidate because it gives more regional diversity.
11:32.48
Sam Shirazi
And one of the issues i mean, this isn't why the Democrats lost in 2021, but in 2021, the entire ticket was from Northern Virginia. And you did see the the turnout in Hampton Roads not as high as other parts of Virginia.
11:44.38
Sam Shirazi
And so I think keeping in mind these regional dynamics for November will be important because they were certainly important in the primary. And if you looked at the different maps of the LG and AG race, it really was based on regional dynamics the way that the race was decided.
12:01.01
Sam Shirazi
All right. One other thing I wanted to talk about was total turnout. So I had mentioned that...
12:07.04
Sam Shirazi
So it looks like the final turnout is going to be for the Democrats somewhere in the ballpark of 485,000 votes. I think we're still waiting on some of the final vote total. So it's kind of unclear exactly what the final is going to be. But we're going to see roughly 485,000 to 490,000 votes in the Virginia Democratic primary, which I think is a very strong number.
12:29.58
Sam Shirazi
considering that the last time the Democrats only had a lieutenant governor and attorney general primary without a governor's primary was 2013. There were only 145,000 votes that time.
12:40.29
Sam Shirazi
Now, granted, early voting was much more difficult back in 2013, but still, i mean, you're seeing over three times the amount of votes that have been cast since then. And if you think about what happened in 2021, the total primary turnout was about 495,000. And that had a governor primary with five candidates running. And so you have just these two ah ah statewide offices that are not the governor's office in 2025, you have almost the same amount of turnout. So I think overall, that's a pretty good sign for the Democrats.
13:13.24
Sam Shirazi
Now, some people have said, well, that's not that much turnout. I mean, there's so many voters in Virginia. I mean, true, in the grand scheme of things, it's not the entire population of Virginia that came out for these primaries, but you have to keep in mind, I mean, these are usually pretty sleepy affairs. And I think the fact that they were both really competitive this year meant that there was going to be a lot of turnout.
13:31.69
Sam Shirazi
And two, the fact that ah people are engaged more, I would say, because of what's going on in DC. I mean, that always happens where the party out of the white house gets more engaged because they're upset at what the president's doing.
13:44.71
Sam Shirazi
It's part of the reason why the party in the, out of the white house always, almost always does well in the Virginia elections. And so i think overall, the Democrats have to be pretty happy when they're looking to, to November.
13:57.16
Sam Shirazi
And one thing to keep in mind is, you know We talked about the regional balance on the ticket. I also think that there's a little bit of a balance between the different communities in Virginia. So you have Abigail Spanberger at the top of the ticket.
14:08.92
Sam Shirazi
Ghazala Hashmi, I mentioned this before, is the first South Asian statewide candidate. That's a growing community in Virginia, has growing political influence. In the 2024 election, I think the Democrats were struggling somewhat with South Asian voters. So we'll see if Ghazala Hashmi being on the ticket might help.
14:25.98
Sam Shirazi
the Democrats struggled last year in Loudoun. And there was a famous moment when Loudoun released its vote total and the Democrats were doing not as great as they were wanting to do in Loudoun. And that was an early preview of how the night was going to go.
14:38.13
Sam Shirazi
And then you had someone Ghazal Hashmi She is both South Asian and she's Muslim. She's the first Muslim candidate to statewide office. So I think she can reach out to both the South Asian community and the Muslim community.
14:51.70
Sam Shirazi
Those are both communities that have swung away from the Democrats. The Democrats have had trouble with those voters recently. And I think there is an opportunity for a candidate like that to come in and maybe shore up the Democrats a little bit and win back some of those voters.
15:05.34
Sam Shirazi
And then obviously at the attorney general spot, you have Jay Jones. We talked about how he could help with the African-American community and get those voters out. And I think the Republicans really have to ask themselves, you know, looking at these results, you you know, what are they going to do to counter this ticket? Because at the end of the day, you know, they are having some problems between the the governor and lieutenant governor.
15:28.96
Sam Shirazi
And it is not going to be an easy task going against this ticket in November. I mean, obviously, they're going to put out their statement. They're going to say it's extreme. I mean, both sides try to paint each other as extreme and out of touch and and all that. And I get it. i mean, that's politics. That's what you do with your opponent.
15:43.65
Sam Shirazi
But they also have to be realistic that they are facing. especially the top ticket with Abigail Spanberger, someone who does have appeal to more middle of the road voters.
15:53.93
Sam Shirazi
And now that she's on a ticket with these two other people who have appeals to different communities in Virginia, I had i talked about how perhaps a area where Spanberger might struggle was with African-American voters. Now she has an African-American person on the ticket that can help her reach those voters, get those voters out.
16:12.71
Sam Shirazi
I think the Republicans have to start thinking about, OK, what is the plan now for November? Because general elections on the ah early voting starts in in late September. So it basically starts in three months. Early voting is pretty crazy to think about. But early voting starts in three months. The general election is about four and a half months away.
16:33.23
Sam Shirazi
And there's not a whole lot of time to get things in order for the Republicans. given the way ah the Democrats have you know been able to put together this ticket. They clearly have a lot of voters who are engaged, voters who came out. those voters i mean One thing is if you're going to if you turn out for a primary, you're almost certainly going to turn out for the general election. So you have a base of voters now that the Democrats are going to be able to build on for the general election.
17:00.48
Sam Shirazi
And I will say in all the battleground districts, Democrats pretty much got the candidates that they wanted. I would say the the candidates that were endorsed by the House leadership were the candidates that were selected.
17:12.80
Sam Shirazi
I don't think the Democrats have any candidates that are super problematic. On the Republican side in some of these battleground districts, you know the candidates, at least in one district, so we'll talk about House District 21, I like to talk about that district,
17:26.67
Sam Shirazi
There weren't too many people who showed up for that primary on the Republican side. that was in Western Prince William. And not that many people showed up for that primary. And so these House races, I think there's a risk that the Republicans are getting a little bit you know, in a place where their voters aren't necessarily super enthusiastic.
17:46.79
Sam Shirazi
I will say there was one thing that i noticed that was kind of interesting. And that was in an open house seat in Western Virginia. And that was house district 46. It was actually the only house district that I got wrong in my primary prediction. So I didn't go through the whole list on my primary prediction podcast.
18:04.79
Sam Shirazi
But I did have an article on Blue Virginia where I gave my predictions for every single House of Delegates primary. I got all nine of the Democratic primaries right, and I got seven out of eight of the Republican ones wrong. The only one I got wrong was House to District 46.
18:19.21
Sam Shirazi
And I picked Tolbert to win that primary because Governor Youngkin endorsed him. But his opponent, Cornett, was able to win that primary. and I was pretty shocked by that because certainly like two years ago, if Governor Youngkin had endorsed someone in a Republican primary, it was almost certain that person was going to win.
18:38.87
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, to be perfectly honest, I didn't follow all the ins and outs of that race. But the fact that the candidate endorsed by Governor Youngkin didn't win that primary, I think that's telling us a little bit about what's going on in the Virginia GOP.
18:51.68
Sam Shirazi
And the fact that Governor Yunkin is on his way out, and I don't know how much influence he has over the Virginia GOP anymore. And I will be honest, there's a little bit of a split, I would say, between the lieutenant governor candidate and the current lieutenant lieutenant governor who's at the top of the ticket with Winston Earl Sears and John Reed.
19:11.30
Sam Shirazi
And I think there's a little bit of a tug of war about who's really going to be driving the train this year in Virginia. And um I will say this, I live in Arlington. i saw a lot of Democratic signs in yards, which makes sense because that is what happens in Arlington because most people are Democrats in Arlington. It's a very blue part of Virginia.
19:32.63
Sam Shirazi
However, I did see a Republican sign in the yard. And the sign was for John Reed. It was not for Winston Earl Sears. And I thought that was very interesting because it's pretty rare if you don't have a primary to see the sign of the lieutenant governor candidate, but not the governor candidate, not the attorney general candidate.
19:49.26
Sam Shirazi
And I'm just curious to see if we're going to see that dynamic this November where are some people who are John Reed fans. There are some people who don't like John Reed. There are some people who like Winston Earl Sears. are some people who don't like Winston Earl Sears on the Republican side.
20:03.65
Sam Shirazi
And I think that's going to create a difficult dynamic for the Republicans as they're trying to navigate this challenging political environment, which is already challenging, given the federal environment with all the cuts and what's going on in D.C.
20:15.64
Sam Shirazi
And now they have these issues in Virginia. And, you know, i think there is a scenario where the Democrats generally have their act together. um think my sense was,
20:28.52
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, the candidates that lost and their supporters disappointed at the outcome. I mean, that's what happens in a primary. you know The people who lose aren't, you know it's difficult and you know you put a lot of your heart and soul in this one campaign and then you come up short. That's never a good feeling.
20:43.04
Sam Shirazi
But my sense is, at least publicly, like they are all backing the ticket. there There is a lot of support. I think people generally feel like it's a balanced ticket.
20:54.00
Sam Shirazi
It's what the Democrats need right now in Virginia. And you look at the Republican side and very clearly there is some tension between the governor and lieutenant governor candidate. And that just generally is not great for morale. If you're a Republican, it's also not super clear what's going to be happening um in November.
21:11.31
Sam Shirazi
Are they going to have joint campaign appearances? I mean, all that's up in the air. And I think the primary answered some interesting questions about who the candidates are going to be for the Democrats.
21:22.84
Sam Shirazi
Republicans, I think they have to really start taking November seriously because there isn't too much time left. And I'm not really sure what the plan is. Obviously, Governor Yunkin could try to come in and try to spend money and try to influence the election. But as we saw in this one primary where he endorsed someone, it didn't really work out for him.
21:42.27
Sam Shirazi
President Trump has a lot going on in D.C., both in Congress trying to pass this bill that is having some challenges. And then obviously internationally, he's dealing with a lot. And so I don't know if his top priority right now is the Virginia elections. And I don't frankly, I don't know if him coming in into the Virginia elections would actually help the Republicans. But in theory, it could energize them.
22:02.16
Sam Shirazi
And so you have a lot of Democrats in Virginia who are fired up, who are pretty happy about their ticket. They're ready to go to November. And Republicans, you know, they have to deal with that reality. And I think there is a scenario where Spanberger, particularly at the top of the ticket, is looks like she's going to win this thing. And, you know, some people might care about Lieutenant Governor and Attorney in General, but most people focus on the governor's race. And so if if you are either not coming out as a Republican because you're you're somewhat demoralized about the governor's race or you may end up even voting for Spanberger the top of the ticket, there may be more tickets splitting this year because Spanberger might get a bigger win.
22:44.97
Sam Shirazi
but still big enough that it dragged everyone across the line. I think those are all things to look for this year in Virginia. um I'm not saying the Democrats are guaranteed to win. I'm not saying the primary proves the Democrats are in a great place and they're going to win and everything's fine for them.
22:57.96
Sam Shirazi
But I do think we just have to be realistic about the nature of things. And, you know, one of the hard things is a electoral analysts, a political analyst is to try to be objective and try to see where things are.
23:09.41
Sam Shirazi
And, know, I'm trying to do my best to figure out where things are in Virginia. I think the next thing at some point, I'm going to look at all the House of Delegates races, try to figure out how many of the races are actually competitive. Democrats are talking a big game, talking about going after a lot of Republicans, like realistically, how many seats could they end up winning in November?
23:26.49
Sam Shirazi
And so all that is really interesting to look for. You know, I hope I hope you guys keep following along as we're doing this podcast. I
23:36.28
Sam Shirazi
ah Hopefully people got a lot of and good information about the primary from my previous podcast. I think most of my primary predictions held up pretty well. i did underestimate LeVar Stoney. do think The candidates that came up short in the primary, it'll be interesting to see what their next moves are.
23:53.32
Sam Shirazi
I mentioned Aaron Rouse and Shannon Taylor have been mentioned for potentially running for Congress next year. Obviously, it's up to them, and I don't know they'll eventually make their decision if they want to do that.
24:04.03
Sam Shirazi
I think it'll be interesting to see what the other candidates end up doing. But overall, really interesting primary in Virginia. I think ah ah it kept everyone glued to their results pages as the results were coming in. I'm sure people enjoyed watching that. And it was pretty nerve wracking for the candidates, I imagine, until we got the results. But anyways.
24:23.26
Sam Shirazi
All right, everyone. I hope yeah you've enjoyed listening. We're going to take a little breather from the primary. Obviously, we're going to get into general election soon. But for now, that has been federal fallout. And I hope you join me next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Episode: Primary Night
18 jun· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode where I'm going to quickly go over some of the things that happened on the in the Virginia primary. I will do a longer episode during my regular podcast which will come out Saturday morning, but I did want to just kind of do this quick podcast.
00:19.54
Sam Shirazi
As you can probably tell, I'm a little bit tired. I'm recording this Tuesday evening. Definitely a lot happened during the primary and I want to talk about it quickly. Again, i want to put this out just give a quick update. I'm mainly going to be talking about the statewide offices for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General for the Democrats. I will talk about the House of Delegates on the podcast on Saturday, but did want to just kind of quickly update you on what happened in Virginia on Tuesday night during the Democratic primary, and then also just give you my hot, hot take, and i will give you another take on Saturday once I have a little bit more time to process all the data. So,
00:59.87
Sam Shirazi
Let's talk about the lieutenant governor's race. So it was super close. I was frankly surprised that it was a three-way race. I think former Richmond mayor LeVar s Stoney did better than I expected, and i think better than most people expected. However, it looks like the winner is going to be she declared victory, and I think Abigail Spamberger, her top-of-the-ticket running mate, has said that Ghazala Hashemi will be the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor.
01:28.52
Sam Shirazi
She is a state senator from the Richmond suburbs, and she will become the first South Asian person to be on a statewide ticket in Virginia. And I think that's pretty notable because that's a growing community in Virginia. it has growing political influence.
01:44.67
Sam Shirazi
There's already a member of Congress from the 10th district, Suhasu Abramiam, who is South Asian. So I think it's kind of important and interesting to note that she will be on the ticket.
01:55.97
Sam Shirazi
All right. So like, how did she win? You know, why was she the one that was able to put together that coalition that was able to get to the magic number? I I had said the magic number was going to be 35%. The magic number was actually much less than 35%.
02:07.94
Sam Shirazi
It looks like the magic number to win for the lieutenant governor primary was about 27 and a half percent, which is just crazy. It's crazy to think how fractured the field was. It's crazy to think there was no ranked choice voting. So the winner was able to get less than 30% of the vote, but Ghazal Hashmi was able to win.
02:24.75
Sam Shirazi
So, you know, I want to kind of just go over how she was able to do it. I think it was pretty straightforward. She did what she needed to do in the Richmond suburbs where she's from. She won Henrico, she won Chesterfield, and then she did pretty well in Northern Virginia. She won Fairfax, she won Arlington pretty narrowly, but she won them.
02:42.01
Sam Shirazi
She actually did surprisingly well, I would say, in Western Virginia, which I don't think a lot of people anticipated. But that also, frankly, ah given how close it was, I mean, that gave her a decent margin out of Western Virginia.
02:55.05
Sam Shirazi
And so it wasn't a huge surprise that Aaron Rouse did well in Hampton roads. I think the reason he did, he wasn't able to win is he just didn't get the margins he needed in Northern Virginia and with black voters in South side, uh, Richmond mayor, LeVar Stoney. I think he did really well in Northern Virginia, a lot better than I expected.
03:15.12
Sam Shirazi
And he did well with black voters in South side of Virginia. I think the issue really for him, which was a killer was he just didn't get the numbers he needed from the Richmond area. Obviously Richmond is his base. Um,
03:26.15
Sam Shirazi
Ghazal Hashmi actually won Richmond City, which is just crazy to think about because Levar Stoney was the mayor of Richmond. I think if he was able to get a better margin out of Richmond, he probably would have won. But at the end of the day, Ghazal Hashmi was able to put together that coalition that was able to win.
03:43.29
Sam Shirazi
So I think it'll be interesting to see her on the ticket with Abigail Spanberger. And we'll talk about the third spot on the ticket with Jay Jones for Attorney General.
03:54.66
Sam Shirazi
And I think given the numbers, he pretty much did what he needed to do in Northern Virginia. That was really the story of the Attorney General race. I think, frankly, he did better than I was expecting in Northern Virginia.
04:08.64
Sam Shirazi
He won Arlington, which I didn't necessarily think he'd do. he got He kept it pretty close in Fairfax, a lot in Prince William. And given the margins he was able to get out of Hampton Roads, and that was enough where it kind of, it was enough for him to overcome the margins that Taylor was able to get in the Richmond suburbs of Henrico. And, you know, it was surprising that J. Jones actually won Chesterfield and Richmond City. And I think so it's kind of the story of J. Jones did well in,
04:39.73
Sam Shirazi
Hampton Roads, he kept Richmond area close and he kept Northern Virginia close and just the margins he was able to get out of Hampton Roads, he was able to win. I will say that I think relative to where she started, Shannon Taylor did pretty well and obviously came up short by just a little bit. And I think, you know, at the end of the day, like that was a very competitive primary and J. Jones was able to pull it out.
05:04.77
Sam Shirazi
So a lot of stuff going on. i did want to talk about two things for November and actually for next year. So for November, the Democratic ticket is set. so you get Abigail Spamberg at the top of the ticket.
05:15.49
Sam Shirazi
You have Ghazal Hashmi in the middle spot. And then you got Jay Jones in the attorney general role. And I think the fact that there is going to be one black person on the ticket,
05:26.99
Sam Shirazi
that will help with turnout of the Black community. And there is also a person from Hampton Roads. So you do see some regional diversity, even though Abigail Spanberger and Ghazal Hashmi are both from the Richmond area.
05:42.68
Sam Shirazi
Jay Jones is also relatively young, certainly for a politician. He is 36 years old and obviously there's been a lot of talk about how the Democratic Party needs to start nominating perhaps more younger candidates and Jay Jones certainly is that and I think will add a little bit of ah youth to the ticket, although even even though Abigail Spanberger, governor nominee, is also relatively young as well for a politician. so I think that's kind an interesting dynamic. I think you'll see an interesting matchup with Lieutenant Governor Winston Mayweather Sears, the Lieutenant Governor candidate for the Republicans, John Reed, and the current Attorney General, Jason Meares. And I think obviously the Republicans also have a diverse ticket. So it's kind of interesting. Both sides have these diverse tickets. They all bring their strengths and it'll be a really interesting general election.
06:29.86
Sam Shirazi
I did want to note one thing that's more online speculation. I frankly don't even know if these people are interested in it. But obviously, Aaron Ross came up short in lieutenant governor's race and Shannon Taylor came up short in the attorney general's race. And happens to be that both of those people live in areas and districts where the Democrats are targeting next year.
06:51.89
Sam Shirazi
with the second congressional district in Hampton Roads, specifically the Virginia Beach area. And then you have the first district, which is Richmond suburbs and goes into the Chesapeake area of Virginia, but that includes Western Henrico, where Shannon Taylor is from. So if either of those people are interested potentially in a congressional run, I do think they both you know obviously came up short, but ran strength, strong campaigns, came up short by just a little bit. And so I think they do have a big name ID, obviously they have a political organization behind them.
07:25.72
Sam Shirazi
And so if they decide to run next year, i think that'll be really interesting to see some of the effects of that. Again, I have no idea if they want to do that. It's very possible they don't run. I don't want to like speculate for them. I'm just saying that's been thrown out there by people online, including you know some national observers of politics and congressional races.
07:45.20
Sam Shirazi
All right. You know, as you can tell, I'm a little bit tired at this point. Election nights are always fun, but they they often go a little bit too long. And it's probably time for me to log off. And, you know, you'll hear this on Wednesday morning. I did want to just kind of give you my initial thoughts. Hopefully they are somewhat coherent. I will try to do one for Saturday morning that is more of a comprehensive look at everything.
08:11.11
Sam Shirazi
probably repeat some of the things I've already said, but also just kind of give some more detail. I did want to go over the House of Delegates because I think there were some important races, both for the battleground districts in November and also some safe seats where the winner is almost certainly going to win the general election. So lot of stuff going on in Virginia.
08:29.23
Sam Shirazi
and think tomorrow when this podcast comes out, this is going to be like the beginning the general election. There's going to strength in November. lot of stuff going on. Really interesting. i I'm glad people are uh, listening to the podcast. I've gotten good pee feedback. hopefully I will continue to be able to do this all the through November and give people my latest updates on what's going on in Virginia.
08:51.37
Sam Shirazi
Really interesting Virginia primary. I think, uh, as the results came in, we were all in suspense for a little bit, trying to figure out who's going to end up on top. And I frankly thought the lieutenant governor's race was going to take a while to call, but it looks like Zahal Hashmi going to be able to pull it out. So anyways, the Virginia elections are always a wild ride. And that's why i made this podcast. There's always something to talk about. It's always super interesting. So I appreciate everyone listening.
09:17.60
Sam Shirazi
This has been Federal Fallout. Please listen to the longer version of the primary recap on Saturday morning and feel free to share this with anyone. this podcast with anyone who's interested in Virginia politics.
09:29.84
Sam Shirazi
But for now, that this is Federal Fallout, and I'll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Episode: Primary Predictions
16 jun· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
Hi Everyone, I’m Sam Shirazi and this is a special bonus episode to give you some of my primary predictions before the virginia primary and i wanted to do this because people asked me and i thought it'd be interesting to kind of give you my take on what's going to happen and Now, honestly, I'm not a huge fan of predictions for various reasons. One, and think it's inherently very difficult to make predictions, especially in a primary.
00:26.65
Sam Shirazi
And two, we're going to find out who's going to win on Tuesday night. So there isn't too much left before we find out who the actual nominees will be. But I do think it's interesting to talk about what might happen on Tuesday and give you a little bit of a rundown about what I think is going to happen.
00:43.17
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, full disclosure, these are just my educated guesses. I don't have some magical ability to to see what's going to happen in the future. There have been times in the past where I've got predictions right and there's been times in the past where I've got predictions wrong.
00:54.95
Sam Shirazi
So definitely take what I have to say with a grain of salt. I will try to kind of share what I'm seeing. My goal is not to discourage anyone from voting for a certain candidate if they want to vote for that candidate. I encourage everyone to vote for who they think is the best candidate, not necessarily who they think is going to win.
01:12.01
Sam Shirazi
i do just want to kind of give you my rundown, but obviously I could be wrong. I'm not trying to say that what I'm about to lay out is going to happen on Tuesday night. It's just what I'm seeing as perhaps the most likely scenarios.
01:26.95
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, before I get into the meat of it, I did want to kind of lay out the different regions in Virginia in a Democratic primary. I'm going to focus on the statewide op offices on the Democratic side for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
01:39.97
Sam Shirazi
Generally, there's three different major regions for a Democratic primary. You have northern Virginia, which is obviously the largest region in Virginia and has the largest population and the largest amount of Democrats.
01:50.65
Sam Shirazi
Then you have a Richmond area, which again has a good chunk of Democrats. And then you have Hampton Roads, which also has a decent amount of Democrats, although
02:01.04
Sam Shirazi
And I don't want to ignore Western Virginia, places like Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Roanoke, certainly a good chunk of Democratic votes there. But the reality is, unless it's very close, I don't think Western Virginia is going to be deciding the Democratic primary.
02:14.95
Sam Shirazi
And as you'll see, there's a lot of regional dynamics based on where the candidates are from. And I think a lot of what's going to be happening on Tuesday night are going to be the regional dynamics. So keep that as in mind as the results start coming in.
02:25.97
Sam Shirazi
So you might see one result coming in from Hampton Roads and one candidate doing really well. That doesn't necessarily mean the candidate's going to win the entire election because They might be the Hampton Roads candidate and you have to wait for Northern Virginia to come in before making a final call on the race. And I'm going to try to be pretty conservative when I do make my call on Tuesday night, unless it's really close and otherwise it will take even longer. But I suspect if it's not super, super close, we'll probably know Tuesday night.
02:53.99
Sam Shirazi
So all that's to say is there's like a lot going on. There's a lot of regional dynamics. I'll talk about some of those regional dynamics and then we can go on and talk about, you know, What might end up happening and who might end up on top. And again, i would say with these primaries, it's very hard for anyone to know for certain who's going to win. So take everything I have to say with a grain of salt. But if you're interested, know keep listening.
03:15.49
Sam Shirazi
All right. So first, we will start with the lieutenant governor's race where there are six Democrats running. It's very competitive. It's hard to know who has the edge right now. but I'm going to lay out what I think I'm seeing and what might happen.
03:27.46
Sam Shirazi
And I did this a couple weeks ago, so I don't want to just repeat what I said on the previous podcast. So i'm going to say a little bit different things that I said than the last time to give you a sense of what's going on, because this podcast is right at the end.
03:38.84
Sam Shirazi
So first we will start off with state Senator Aaron Rouse. He is from Virginia beach. So right off the bat, I think he is going to be doing pretty well in Hampton roads. Now, One thing that I'm looking for on Election Day and as the results are coming in is where is there going to be a turnout surge and is there going to be a turnout surge in Hampton Roads? And the reason I say that is for a couple of reasons. One, I would say so far, African-American areas, including Hampton Roads, have had relatively strong turnout in the early vote.
04:08.67
Sam Shirazi
And then the other thing that I think is interesting, really in the weeds dynamic is Virginia Beach. So obviously, Aaron Rouse is from Virginia Beach. And one thing that I noticed is this time Virginia Beach only had one early voting location and it didn't have any satellite voting locations.
04:23.72
Sam Shirazi
And I imagine the reason for that was they just didn't see the need to have satellite voting locations because ah ah it wasn't going to be like presidential election turnout. But that means that there's only been one place to vote in Virginia Beach in person this entire election early voting cycle.
04:40.52
Sam Shirazi
And if you think about Virginia Beach has a big population, has is big geographically. So if you live on the other end of Virginia Beach, you may not be driving over to vote at your early voting location. and And that means that you're more likely to come out on Election Day. So I do think there's a scenario where there's maybe a bit of a surge in Virginia Beach, particularly if Rouse is able to bring out his supporters.
04:59.95
Sam Shirazi
And that's one of the things I'm going to be looking at. And I think one of the reasons a little bit inherently unpredictable what's going to be happening Tuesday night as the results start coming in. All right, now let's move over to the next candidate who is state senator Ghazala Hashmi.
05:13.89
Sam Shirazi
She comes from the Richmond suburbs, and I imagine she's going to be doing pretty well in the Richmond suburbs. But you cannot win as a statewide candidate just with the Richmond suburbs, and I think she knows that. And that's why she's also been focusing a lot on Northern Virginia and the Northern Virginia suburbs, and particularly among women voters in Northern Virginia. I think there's a path for her.
05:33.19
Sam Shirazi
And again, I'll talk a little bit about the early voting nuance and in the weed details. So I would say inner Northern Virginia, Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax has really picked up recently in the early vote at the end.
05:45.06
Sam Shirazi
And there's been a decent turnout surge, which is pretty expected because those parts of Northern Virginia have a lot of politically engaged people. And usually you see pretty high turnout in Arlington, Alexandria, of Fairfax.
05:56.63
Sam Shirazi
I think one thing that's been interesting is Loudoun and Prince William, which I i call more outer Northern Virginia, has had relatively less turnout, I would say. Even compared to other parts of Virginia.
06:08.12
Sam Shirazi
And I don't know why that is I mean, it's possible people are just waiting for election day. And one thing to keep in mind with those areas, in terms of for Hashmi specifically, those areas, Loudoun in particular, has a decent South Asian community.
06:21.77
Sam Shirazi
And so if she's able to connect with South south Asian voters, that's another block of voters that she might be able to to have on her side as the election results start coming in. So again, there might be this turnout surge in outer Northern Virginia and Loudoun and Prince William. For whatever reason, people might not have wanted to go early vote because maybe the early voting locations were not super close to them because those are big counties.
06:44.50
Sam Shirazi
All right. So the next candidate is former Richmond mayor, LeVar Stoney.
06:48.92
Sam Shirazi
I think he's going to be expecting to do pretty well in Richmond city. The wild card again is Northern Virginia. And if you think about it, you know, who is competing for the Northern Virginia votes?
06:59.86
Sam Shirazi
All the candidates. But I do think Stoney, his angle is he has the backing of former Governor Terry McAuliffe. And if you see some of those more moderate suburban voters,
07:12.24
Sam Shirazi
who are looking for their candidate, who they're going to back. And if they end up choosing Stoney because of the McAuliffe endorsement or because of you know his time with the Democratic Party, then it's possible that Stoney starts to break through in Northern Virginia, particularly somewhere like Fairfax, where Terry McAuliffe is from and has you know been campaigning for Stoney. If he's able to break through in Fairfax, a lot of votes in Fairfax, and if he becomes kind of the Northern Virginia candidate, you can kind of see him putting this together, this coalition of know black voters, Richmond voters, ah voters from Northern Virginia, and then he might be able to to break through and and kind of get enough votes where he's going to end up on top.
07:50.10
Sam Shirazi
All right. Next candidate is Prince William County School Board Chair Barbara Lateef. As I mentioned, Prince William County has not necessarily turned out as much as other parts of Virginia yet. But again, if that changes on Election Day, there's a huge surge of turnout in Prince William County.
08:04.48
Sam Shirazi
That should help Lateef. He's also come out really strongly against the Fairfax Casino. And if a lot of voters in Fairfax, if their number one issue is the Fairfax Casino, I think, again, you'll be seeing him doing well. And that could get him a lot of votes because Obviously, Fairfax County is the biggest county in Virginia.
08:22.29
Sam Shirazi
mean, I think the challenge for him is the rest of his statewide numbers are a little bit unknown. And i don't know how much support he's going to get in in Richmond area or Hampton Roads. But in theory, if he can really run up the score in Northern Virginia, then there could be this path for Lateef in Northern Virginia. Then there could be this path where Lateef gets enough votes out of Northern Virginia.
08:44.98
Sam Shirazi
Okay. And finally, the last two candidates. Again, i think I've talked about this in the past podcast. I think they just have a harder time breaking through when you have these other candidates running. There's former DOJ prosecutor, Victor Salgado. I think he'll do relatively well in Northern Virginia, relatively well with Hispanic voters. But again, I don't know if that's enough to get the votes he needs.
09:04.63
Sam Shirazi
And then you have former labor official, Alex Bastani. I think he will be doing... you know, he'll relatively well with more progressive voters. Again, I don't know how many of them are actually going to come out and what percentage of the primary that's going to be. So I just, it's, it's hard to see the him putting together the coalition he needs.
09:21.29
Sam Shirazi
All right. So as you can see, a lot of different candidates, a lot of different paths to winning It's really and impossible to know which one is going to put together that coalition that's going to be able to get them to the number they need to win. i think it really depends who shows up on election day. And I can't model that. I can't predict that, particularly in a primary, there's really no way of knowing.
09:42.22
Sam Shirazi
I did want to lay out two scenarios. And I will say I've kind of copped out of giving a final prediction with one candidate winning this primary. I'll give you my overall thoughts on what's going to be happening.
09:53.43
Sam Shirazi
I think there's one scenario where there's this turnout surge in Hampton Roads and specifically Virginia Beach because of the satellite voting location issue. And then you see Rouse doing better with black voters and then he gets what he needs in Northern Virginia. And then you can see a scenario where Rouse ends up on top. He puts together that coalition.
10:12.19
Sam Shirazi
that he's able to get to kind of the magic number of 35%. So I would say if there's kind of a surge in turnout in Hampton Roads, then I would rate the race basically tilt-rouse. All right, but let's talk about a different scenario. And that's where we see a Northern Virginia surge.
10:27.10
Sam Shirazi
And for example, if Loudon and Prince William really start coming out in big numbers, and then have
10:32.72
Sam Shirazi
And then Hashmi is able to break through in Northern Virginia, for example, with women voters or with South Asian voters. And she's just really doing better with that demographic and is able to kind of become the Northern Virginia candidate. And then she has the Richmond suburbs.
10:47.22
Sam Shirazi
You would think, okay, that should... give her a path where she might be able to win. And, you know, there's kind of maybe this scenario where Rouse and Stoney are maybe splitting some of the black vote and she's connecting more with the suburban voters, then you could see a scenario where she ends up on top. And so i would say if there is this Northern Virginia surge and if it if it benefits Hashmi, then I would rate the race as maybe Tilt Hashmi.
11:14.88
Sam Shirazi
You know, I would say s Stoney's path is somewhat similar in that it he could be if he becomes a Northern Virginia candidate and then maybe if he does better with black voters, then he would have a path. I think the challenge he has is he doesn't have the natural you know connection where Hashmi has a base with women voters that, you know you know, a certain amount of the voters are just going to back Hashmi because.
11:36.52
Sam Shirazi
She's the only woman in the race, and that tends to help women candidates. think the issue Stoney has is he's competing with both Hashmi and Rouse. And so with Rouse, he's competing for the black voters. And then with Hashmi, he's competing for suburban voters.
11:51.51
Sam Shirazi
And there's a scenario where he just doesn't necessarily get the numbers he needs with either community. And then he ends up not winning the race. So I'm not saying that's going to happen. I think that's one of the scenarios that could happen. Now, in theory, if he again, if he does better with black voters, he does better with suburban voters, then you can see him putting together this coalition where he ends up on top.
12:10.57
Sam Shirazi
But I would say if I had to pick, gun to my head, the top two, Right now competing on Tuesday night are going to be between Rouse and Hashmi. Again, I could be wrong about that.
12:21.35
Sam Shirazi
I think Stoney definitely has a chance, but I'm just you know trying to lay out what i'm I'm seeing. And that's not to say that I don't think Stoney can win. It's just if I had to pick, that's kind of what I'm seeing right now.
12:34.10
Sam Shirazi
And for Lateef, it's kind of a ah ah similar story where, um know, in theory, I could see him getting the margins he needs in Northern Virginia to pull it off. I just think, you know, the question mark is what are his votes going to look like in Richmond and Hampton Roads? And I just don't know if he's able to get those numbers in the other parts of Virginia. But obviously, if he does get really high margins in Northern Virginia, then that could be enough for him.
12:55.94
Sam Shirazi
And then the other two candidates, you know, Salgado and Bastani, as I talked about, I think it's harder for them to put together a coalition to win. So all that's to say is like, I typically don't like to do these cop out type predictions. I typically like to pick someone.
13:10.47
Sam Shirazi
If I could, I probably would. i would just say this race is just really, really close. And we just don't know who's going to show up on election day. And for that reason, I actually think that's going to drive turnout. And there's going to be probably more turnout on election day because...
13:23.97
Sam Shirazi
all the candidates are working out to to get their voters. They're all voting, focusing on their different voting bases. And I think it's going to be really interesting. I'm really curious what overall turnout is going to be. I think that's going to be one of the stories after the primary. And obviously I'll talk about that once we have the final turnout number, but really interesting LG race. I think it's going to be really fascinating to see what the results are going to be.
14:03.31
Sam Shirazi
All right, now let's move on to attorney general, which in some ways is very is much simpler because we only have two candidates. However, I do think there's a similar Hampton Roads versus Northern Virginia dynamic.
14:14.42
Sam Shirazi
So in terms of the attorney general race, I've talked about this in the past. think the thing that changed recently in the last two weeks or so has been the big donations that Shannon Taylor has been getting from Dominion.
14:27.72
Sam Shirazi
Last I checked, the total number that Shannon Taylor has gotten from Dominion this entire primary cycle has been $800,000, I think that any that any primary that Dominion's gotten into.
14:40.08
Sam Shirazi
I will say Jay Jones has been getting support from Clean Virginia. So he's getting the Clean Virginia money and Shannon Taylor is getting the Dominion Energy money. That's leading to a lot of ads on both sides, a lot of focus on Northern Virginia, because I think that's where the race is going to be decided.
14:54.01
Sam Shirazi
And again, I think it's a similar dynamic. Is there going to be a surge in Hampton Roads and or is there going to be a surge in Northern Virginia? So if there's a surge in Hampton Roads, I think that definitely benefits Jay Jones.
15:05.26
Sam Shirazi
His base is in Norfolk. I think he's going to a good margin out of Norfolk. I think he's going to do well generally in Hampton Roads. And so if if we're seeing more voters turning out in Hampton Roads, you know, it's going to be pretty easy for Jay Jones to put together a coalition where he gets good margin from Hampton Roads, he gets a good margin with black voters, and then he keeps it pretty competitive in Northern Virginia, and then he's able to win.
15:28.14
Sam Shirazi
And I think the advantage that Jay Jones has compared to the lieutenant governor race is he's the only black candidate in the race. And so it it isn't going to be split like it is in the LG race between Rouse and Stoney. And so I think for all those reasons, I think he has the easier path to victory. And I do think if there is this more Hampton Roads surge scenario, then I would rate Jones as a favorite in that scenario.
15:52.41
Sam Shirazi
However, i think there's a similar dynamic if there is this surge of voters in Northern Virginia, particularly if there's a lot of women coming out in Northern Virginia and Shannon Taylor is able to break through with the women voters and she's able to use the money that she's been able to get from Dominion to reach those voters, you can see a scenario where she kind of breaks through, she becomes the Northern Virginia candidate and she's able to win.
16:14.100
Sam Shirazi
It's a little bit what happened, I would say, in 2021 where Mark Herring got really big margins in Northern Virginia. I think the challenge for Shannon Taylor is like, i don't know if she's going to be able to match the Mark Herring margins in Northern Virginia or even really get close to them because Mark Herring was from Northern Virginia.
16:31.96
Sam Shirazi
Shannon Taylor is from Richmond. I think she'll do well in the Richmond suburbs, but I just don't know if she'll be able to be getting the numbers she needs in Northern Virginia, given the fact that Jay Jones is going to get a good amount of vote votes out of Hampton Roads. So, you know,
16:46.68
Sam Shirazi
Because this is a one-on-one race, I feel like I have to pick a candidate and I can't do some sort of cop-out thing like I did in the LG race. So you know my gut is telling me just given the the easier path that Jay Jones has, he even if there is some sort of Northern Virginia surge, I still think he would be the favorite, although it'd be kind of slight at that point.
17:07.45
Sam Shirazi
I do think there is a scenario where Shannon Taylor can win, so I don't want to discount that possibility. But I did want to kind of pick. And if if there's kind of a, if I had to pick, I would say Jay Jones should win the attorney general race.
17:19.98
Sam Shirazi
And again, I felt like a one-on-one race, I have to pick someone. I think in the LG race, because there were six candidates, I felt a little bit more comfortable copping out and not giving one prediction because I think it's just very difficult to make a prediction when there's a six way race.
17:36.15
Sam Shirazi
All right, now let's move on to the House of Delegates. And i don't want to go through race by race because I think House of Delegates races just inherently are very hard to predict what's going to happen, especially if it's not a super high profile House of Delegates race. So I don't know I'll give you my whole list of predictions for the House of Delegates.
17:55.15
Sam Shirazi
I will say, you know, there are three incumbents facing primaries, two on the Democratic side, one on the Republican side. you know I could be wrong, but in my opinion, I don't see any of the incumbents this year who are facing primaries lose in the Virginia House of Delegates.
18:10.03
Sam Shirazi
Just because I think it's going to be interesting to talk about the battleground districts, I will go through each battleground district that faces a primary and talk about who I think will end up on top. So first, I will start with off with the Democrats, and I will start off with House District 57 in the Richmond suburbs.
18:25.94
Sam Shirazi
I've talked about this district before. This is the one that I think is most likely to flip. So there are two Democrats running. And in my opinion, given just the endorsements and the money she's been able to raise, I think May Navar is likely to be the Democratic nominee in this district, which will set up a competitive race with the Republican David Owen.
18:44.29
Sam Shirazi
And I think if the Democrats are having a good night, this is probably going to be the first seat that will flip for the Democrats in November. So we'll see how that race shapes up. I will move over to House District 73, also in the Richmond suburbs. And this is another one where I feel pretty comfortable that I think the Democratic nominee is going to be Leslie Mehta.
19:03.48
Sam Shirazi
And the reason I say that is she's gotten a lot of the endorsements. She was the and Democratic nominee in the first House District in 2020. So I just think there's a lot of dynamics where it makes sense that she would be able to win that primary.
19:15.92
Sam Shirazi
And while this one is a was only a plus one Harris district in 2024. I do think the Democrats, if they're having a good night in the suburbs in November, this is a type of seat that could flip.
19:27.26
Sam Shirazi
So we'll see an interesting race between, likely we'll see it between Leslie Mehta and the Republican incumbent Mark Early. All right, one more seat in the Richmond suburbs, and that's House District 75, where the current incumbent is Republican Kerry Conyer.
19:43.65
Sam Shirazi
I think this is kind of an interesting primary because there's three three people running. um I had to pick, I would say there's a slight advantage to Lindsey Daughtry just because she's raised more money.
19:54.77
Sam Shirazi
i will say I think there's a chance that Stephen Miller Pitts might also be able to win because the district has a decent black population. And I think if he's able to bring out those voters, he might be able to be the nominee.
20:05.55
Sam Shirazi
But if I had to pick, I'd say right now, maybe Lindsey Daughtry is a little bit favored, just given the fundraising she was able to do. So that's where I'm seeing that race. And I think, again, very competitive race in November because Harris won that seat by six points.
20:20.47
Sam Shirazi
All right. One more Democratic primary in a battleground district. And this is in House District 89 in the Suffolk-Chesapeake area. The incumbent Republican has retired.
20:31.41
Sam Shirazi
And this is roughly a plus three Harris seat from 2024. And I think there's a decent chance that Karen Carnegie will be the Democratic nominee in this district, just given the amount of money that she's been able to raise. So that'll be interesting to see if she's able to flip this seat now that it's open.
20:48.49
Sam Shirazi
All right, might as well talk about the 89th district on the Republican side because this is an open district. So there will also be a Republican primary on election night. And I would say that in this district,
21:03.62
Sam Shirazi
Mike Lamine would be the favorite to be the Republican nominee, just given the amount of money he's raised. And I think he has the endorsement of the current delegate, Baxter Ennis. So if I had to guess, I'm guessing we are going to be seeing a Lamine versus Carnegie matchup in November in this district.
21:20.10
Sam Shirazi
All right. Two more battleground districts with Republican primaries. So first, I will talk about the 21st House district. This is in western Prince William County. Current incumbent is Democrat Josh Thomas.
21:31.40
Sam Shirazi
There are three Republicans running to face him. Honestly, this is probably one of the hardest primaries to pick because, frankly, none of the campaigns has raised a lot of money. None of them have really decided. distinguished themselves.
21:42.63
Sam Shirazi
So I really don't know who's going to pick. If I had to pick a name out of a hat, basically, I am going to go with Gregory Lee Gorham. I, that's basically just I think he might be a little bit more well-known in the district, but honestly, it's really hard to know who's going to win that seat, uh, for the primary.
22:01.26
Sam Shirazi
Whoever wins will end up facing Josh Thomas. I think the Republicans have their work cut out for them because Josh Thomas has a big, war chest right now and none of the Republicans have raised much money, although obviously that can change after the primary. So another race to look out for in November.
22:35.92
Sam Shirazi
All right. And actually, I'll do two more primaries and then I'll wrap it up. And these are in open seats that are safe Republican seats. So I think it's important to talk about the primary and who I think might win because the winner is likely going to be the next delegate because these are very red seats.
22:52.37
Sam Shirazi
All right. And my pick for who's going to win is Adam Tolbert. And that's mainly because he has raised more money and he's gotten the endorsement of Governor Glenn Youngkin, which you would think in a Republican primary should help him. So I'm going to go without Adam Tolbert for winning this nomination. And if he does win the nomination, he's almost certainly going to be the next delegate from this district.
23:12.12
Sam Shirazi
All right, one more Republican district, this is House District 62 current incumbent Nick Friedus is retiring and my pick for winning the primary. is going to be Karen Hamilton, the main reason I picked her is because she gets the endorsement from Nick Friedus so you would think that that would help, although.
23:29.22
Sam Shirazi
I also think it's possible that Clay Jackson might pull off the upset, but I'm going to go with Karen Hamilton. And again, take all this with a super grain of salt because House of Delegates primaries are even more difficult to predict in some some cases. Some cases they're pretty easy to predict, but I think in some other instances, it's very hard to predict House of Delegates primaries. So I just did that more to kind of talk about the fact that there are House of Delegates primaries and Hopefully people find it interesting to when I also talk about the House Delegates primaries.
23:57.76
Sam Shirazi
However, as I mentioned, I think the vast majority attention on primary day will be on the statewide races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. i hope ah ah you found this interesting to go over some certain scenarios and what might be happening on the Democratic primary.
24:13.26
Sam Shirazi
Again, i want to caveat everything, like take everything I say with a grain of salt. I could be wrong. I do think one thing I find annoying about pundits is that they typically only highlight the times they are right and they don't highlight the times they are wrong.
24:27.38
Sam Shirazi
And i will give you some full disclosure. i think I've had ah more success predicting Virginia stuff than federal stuff. So I'll give you my history or my recent history. So in 2023, I was able to predict that the Democrats were going to win the state Senate and that were at least going to tie in the House of Delegates, if not get a majority. And that's what ended up happening.
24:48.44
Sam Shirazi
Now, I will give a shout out to Chaz Nuttycomb. He actually predicted every single House race in that in the House of Delegates and in the state Senate. So he got all 140 seats right. I did not go that far and make predictions in individual races. I made kind of chamber predictions.
25:04.55
Sam Shirazi
So definitely Chaz Nadecombe gets a shout out for 2023 because he was correct in the predictions. 2024, I was correct in the Virginia primaries for the congressional seats. I got all the congressional primaries correct in 2024.
25:18.66
Sam Shirazi
However, in full disclosure, I did get the 2024 general election wrong. Nationally, I did get the congressional races and the Senate seat in Virginia correct in 2024. in terms of those races.
25:30.51
Sam Shirazi
However, I did get the 2024 national predictions wrong. And that kind of taught me that maybe I should say that national politics um and my predictions are maybe a little bit better in Virginia elections as opposed to national politics.
25:42.74
Sam Shirazi
However, i so I lay all that out there to say that I've had a mixed record. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. I think it's important for pundits to be honest and transparent about when they get things right, they get things wrong.
25:53.74
Sam Shirazi
These races very much I could get wrong. I think especially with the statewide Democratic primaries, there's a level of volatility that's really inherently unpredictable. Who's going to show up on election day is very unpredictable.
26:06.58
Sam Shirazi
There is no way for me to make any sort of prediction with any sort of sense of confidence about who's going to be winning. But I did want to lay out different scenarios and different paths people have to victory.
26:17.48
Sam Shirazi
And, know, hopefully people found it interesting instead of bugging me about who who they think, who who I think is going to and win. They can listen to this podcast. And I appreciate everyone.
26:28.61
Sam Shirazi
joining and listening. um I'll obviously have more coverage of the primary once the results come in. And then once we get through the primary, I mean, that's really general election. So we've been focused on the primary a lot.
26:39.53
Sam Shirazi
Then we will get to the general election and it's going to be a sprint to the general election, a little over four months until we get till November. And there's going to be a lot going on. and I will cover it all. And I think it's going to be super interesting. So appreciate everyone listening to this podcast. Hopefully if you enjoy it, feel free to write a review it it helps people learn about the podcast. And obviously if you think people are interested in what's going on this Tuesday in Virginia, feel free to share this podcast with anyone who you think is interested, but otherwise I will be seeing you Tuesday night as I post the results as they come in. And then I will probably do a another podcast for you.
27:18.53
Sam Shirazi
for Wednesday morning just to kind of give everyone an update on how everything turned out. So should be an exciting night and make sure you you vote if you haven't already and you are able to vote in Virginia. And I will join you next time for a federal fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Episode: Foreign Policy Fallout
14 jun· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
Hi everyone, I am Sam Shirazi and this is federal fallout the 2025 Virginia elections, this is a special bonus episode looking at potential foreign policy fallout in the Virginia elections and i'm going to be talking more so about the historical fallout and three Virginia elections in 2001. Sam Shirazi, 2005 2021 and obviously the reason i'm bringing this up is because of the conflict right now between Israel and Iran.
00:24.59
Sam Shirazi
And I just wanted to kind of touch base about that and why it might influence the Virginia elections. I did want to note that obviously Tuesday is the Democratic primary. you got to hear from Chaz about some of his insights about what's going to be happening on Tuesday. I'm hoping Monday morning I will be releasing my final predictions for the Tuesday primary. thanks.
00:44.78
Sam Shirazi
ah You'll have to wait a little bit longer to get my input on that. But I did want to talk about this issue right now that's going on ah in the Middle East because obviously it's possible things die down and it doesn't end up being that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things and no one will really remember in November. It's also possible that it becomes a prolonged conflict that ah perhaps drags in the United States. Obviously, the immediate impact has been a spike in oil prices. So there's also a risk of long term rises in oil prices.
01:16.67
Sam Shirazi
And obviously, one of the things that hurt President Biden during his term was the spike in oil prices and the rise in in gas prices because of the Ukraine war. And it's possible that would happen again ah with this current conflict.
01:30.25
Sam Shirazi
And I did want to note that there are um people in Virginia who have family and friends both in Iran and Israel, and obviously it's a difficult time for those individuals. um And I just wanted to talk about this issue because i think a lot of times with the Virginia elections, we think of them as you know state elections, just domestic policy. But I do think there have been those three instances where foreign policy has gotten into the Virginia elections. And I wanted to kind of talk about that from a historical perspective.
01:56.10
Sam Shirazi
And then talk about, you know, perhaps what would happen this year. So in terms of the historical perspective, I think the first really in modern history, big election where foreign policy influenced the Virginia elections was in 2001. And it's pretty crazy to think about it now. But obviously, there was the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks, which were Awful. And, you know, most people think of the Twin Towers in New York, but the Pentagon was also hit in Arlington, Virginia, and that is in Virginia.
02:25.64
Sam Shirazi
a lot of people don't think of Virginia as being attacked on 9-11, but ah there was a... terrorist attack in Virginia on 9-11 and tragic tragically people lost their lives.
02:36.20
Sam Shirazi
So, you know, there was a direct big impact to Virginia from those terrorist attacks. And then obviously the next month, the the U.S. began ah military operations in Afghanistan against the Taliban.
02:47.92
Sam Shirazi
And that was all going on while the Virginia elections were going to happen in early November 2001. And, you know, it was a little bit before my time. I don't quite remember everything related to the Virginia elections. I remember 9-11, but I don't remember um its impact on the Virginia elections.
03:03.79
Sam Shirazi
And I looked at some old articles and basically it seemed like the campaign was paused for a while because obviously the country was going through a lot and people were processing it and they weren't really super tuned into a Virginia state election. And I do think it kind of Lowered the temperature of the election. um It's a little bit hard to imagine now, but there was a time after nine eleven immediately after 9-11, where Americans really came together and there wasn't this huge partisanship that we see today.
03:29.77
Sam Shirazi
And Americans were a lot more united. So I think there was a sense that neither campaign really wanted to attack each other. And, you know, i think while all that was going on in the background, it's kind of amazing that it didn't have a bigger impact on the election. And I think both sides just kind of wanted to focus on more of the domestic issues and not really bring nine eleven into the Virginia elections, even though it had happened, you know, and it was just fresh in everyone's mind. And if you were around after 9-11, obviously that was basically the only thing people were thinking about.
04:02.56
Sam Shirazi
And so, yeah. It was kind of an amazing thing that, you know less than two months after that, ah Virginia had an election. It's also kind of amazing that Mark Warner was able to win that election, considering ah how popular The Republican president, George W. Bush, was at the time because of the aftermath of 9-11 and a rally around the flag kind of feeling in the country. So that was the first Virginia elections where I think there was a big impact by foreign policy. But it's kind of ironic that it mainly just kind of slowed things down and made the campaign a little less intense and and kind of put it in the back burner, which.
04:35.73
Sam Shirazi
I guess ultimately helped Mark Warner because it was more focused on some of these domestic issues and he was able to win, even though the Republican president at that time was very popular. And so that's kind of interesting because usually you think the the president is not popular and that's why the party out of the White House does well in Virginia elections. But there you had a Virginia election where the party in the White House at the time was very popular and yet Mark Warner was still able to win.
05:01.11
Sam Shirazi
All right. Now let's move on four years to 2005 when George W. Bush was no longer popular, even though he was reelected. I talked about this in a previous episode.
05:11.30
Sam Shirazi
pause. In 2005, the impacts of the Iraq war were really starting to be felt, both in terms of the cost of the war, the number of troops that were dying. And it was one of those things where people were seeing the images every night, troops dying in Iraq, and it wasn't going well. And obviously, Virginia is very impacted by
05:31.29
Sam Shirazi
The military, it's a military dependent state. People knew people their friends and family were being sent over to Iraq, and sometimes they were being sent on multiple tours and it was creating a strain on the military. And while I think initially the war was supported by most Americans, I think by the time 2005,
05:50.07
Sam Shirazi
started to um happen, the war was a lot less popular. And I think ah Americans felt that they were being trapped in you know a civil war in Iraq, where a lot of people weren't even sure why we were there anymore.
06:03.63
Sam Shirazi
And so I think all of that was in the backdrop. I don't think explicitly the election was necessarily about the Iraq war because it was a Virginia local state election. But I think it, one, energizes a lot of Democrats and Democratic activists to get involved in that election.
06:17.52
Sam Shirazi
And certainly it really dragged down George W. Bush's approval ratings to the point that um he came and campaigned late in that election and it didn't really help the Republicans. And if anything, it backfired on the Republicans. So I thought it was interesting that you had this election where it wasn't.
06:33.86
Sam Shirazi
purely a referendum on Iraq, but it it was in the background. And I think that helped the Democrats and that helped him came win in 2005 with that election and being able to ah follow more corner into the governor's mansion.
06:47.09
Sam Shirazi
All right, so um I would say the next few Virginia elections weren't really heavily influenced by foreign policy, but we can fast forward to 2021 where there was the withdrawal from Afghanistan that happened in the summer of 2021.
07:00.61
Sam Shirazi
And obviously, while I feel like most Americans probably supported leaving Afghanistan, The way that it happened and the chaotic nature of it and the fact that um some U.S. troops were killed and there were images that were difficult to watch of Afghans trying to cling on to the U.S. planes while they were leaving. I think that all created a obviously a negative impression on the American people about the way President Biden was handling the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
07:26.76
Sam Shirazi
um I think Virginia being a military heavy state, a lot of people may have served in Afghanistan. I think seeing the way that it ended was difficult for many people. And, you know, at the end of the day, President Biden was in office, and I think he took the blame for the way it it was handled, even though, as I mentioned, I think most people wanted to leave Afghanistan. They didn't want to necessarily see it end like that. And the fact that Taliban were able to take over Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrew.
07:54.38
Sam Shirazi
And, i you know, kind of reading between the lines, you you hear from some of the McAuliffe campaign people that, you know, it was pretty competitive ah before the withdrawal from Afghanistan. But then after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, I think that's when things really went south for the McAuliffe campaign. And not to say that that was everything and that's the reason they lost. I mean, there were other issues. There was COVID, there was a schools issue. um But I think in the background, there was that ah withdrawal from Afghanistan that led to kind of a pretty sharp decline in President Biden's approval ratings. And it never really approved, his approval never really rebounded after it went down after the um withdrawal from Afghanistan. So I think all that's to say is, ah you know, it was one of the many factors, maybe one of the straws that broke the camel's back in 2021, where most people had thought at the beginning year, the Democrats were going to win Virginia because President Biden had won it and by 10 points in 2020.
08:48.18
Sam Shirazi
And then by the end of um 2021, Glenn Youngkin was able to win Virginia by two points because of all these factors and it was this perfect storm. And I do think one of the perfect storms was Afghanistan because if you look at the vote in Hampton Roads, which is a very military dependent area, ah the Democrats just generally didn't do well in Hampton Roads in 2021. And I think that was part of the reason.
09:10.92
Sam Shirazi
All right. And, you know, I don't want to speculate too much right now because what's going on between Israel and Iran is obviously very fluid. There's a lot of ways it could end. um You know, there was a few weeks ago where it looked like maybe ah India and Pakistan were about to go to war, but that seemed to have been averted.
09:27.73
Sam Shirazi
So you never really know, especially in something as unpredictable as this. But, um you know, I will say that it's possible this gets dragged on and by November there there could still be things going on um related to this conflict and that might influence American politics. Obviously, America could get um dragged into the war if um it feels like it needs to be defending Israel and needs to um you deploy troops and and other resources to the Middle East.
09:55.79
Sam Shirazi
And I think it's just one of those things where foreign policy is very unpredictable. And it often has these impacts in elections in a way that you just can't control for other like other things where are a little bit more predictable.
10:09.64
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, obviously um one of the things that hurt Democrats last year was um the war in Gaza. And, you know, that happened in October 2023. But um the effects were still felt a year after that in November 2024. And i think that's one of the reasons. Obviously, there were many reasons why the Democrats lost in 2024. But I do think the war in Gaza was one of them.
10:29.06
Sam Shirazi
So while, yes, we're in the middle of June, um it's possible by the November, no one remembers this. It's also possible these things tend to drag on. Obviously, the Ukraine war started in 2022. It's still going on.
10:40.49
Sam Shirazi
um You know, once these wars start, sometimes they're hard to end. And the longer a war drags on, but usually the worse it is for the party in the White House because people blame the president when a conflict is not resolved.
10:53.26
Sam Shirazi
So I'm not saying that's going to happen this time. i do think there's a possibility. um you know i don't imagine this election is going to be a referendum on what's going on necessarily in the Middle East. But if you think about...
11:06.08
Sam Shirazi
the potential rise in in oil prices, and you think about some of the bigger implications on the economy, it's possible, it's part of the overall impression about what's going on in DC. And you know part of what President Trump ran on in 2024 was this promise to bring back um stability and and order and strength. And you know he criticized President Biden for the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
11:29.52
Sam Shirazi
And if people don't really feel like the world's getting more orderly and things are more peaceful, um it's possible Republicans will pay the price because um they campaigned on that. And the Democrats certainly didn't benefit from the fact that there were wars going on in 2024. And um so we'll we'll just have to wait and see. I don't want to dwell on it too much. I do think...
11:50.39
Sam Shirazi
The historical analogies are kind of interesting to think about when foreign policy fell into the Virginia elections. um I kind of wanted to do this episode to talk about something a little bit different because next few days are going to be really about the primaries, um even though all this other stuff is going on in the world. So keep your eye keep keep an eye out. I do want to release a podcast right before the primary about the Virginia elections.
12:15.57
Sam Shirazi
ah primary and ah about my predictions. I think it's going to be a little bit hard to make any sort of final calls, but I'll try my best to come up with something. And so hopefully you listen to that. I hope you found the ah podcast with Chaz interesting to hear from his perspective.
12:30.80
Sam Shirazi
And I appreciate everyone listening. um you know There's going to be a lot of twists and turns in this campaign. It's still you know crazy to think that we're over four months, four and a half months away from the election. a lot of things can still happen. So please follow along. I've gotten good feedback and i appreciate everyone who's been listening and sharing the podcast and writing reviews and feel free to keep doing that if you enjoy the podcast. But I will join you soon with my primary predictions.
12:59.14
Sam Shirazi
And this has been Federal Fallout and I hope everyone has good weekend and then I'll see you on Monday.

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Episode 16: Chaz Nuttycombe Returns
14 jun· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
Hi Everyone I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode, we will have our first return guest with Chaz Nadecombe.
00:11.51
Sam Shirazi
Chaz, thanks again for coming back.
00:13.29
Chaz Nuttycombe
Hey, Sam. It's so good to be back. Thanks for having me on.
00:16.38
Sam Shirazi
Yeah. So before we turn to Virginia and the primaries on Tuesday, I did want to talk a little bit about State Navigate. I've been watching what you guys have been doing. Really cool stuff, including the map you have of all the House of Delegates districts this year in Virginia. So did you want to talk a little bit about what State Navigate is and and how people can find out more about the elections this year in Virginia?
00:38.17
Chaz Nuttycombe
State Navigate is a 501c3 nonpartisan nonprofit. So all donations are tax deductible. We don't have a dog in the fight. You know, we just like data.
00:48.81
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, you know, that's precinct data. That's ideology data. We don't have that out for Virginia yet. just launched it in South Carolina for calculating the ideology of the legislators using W nominate, which has been used for Congress for 35 years.
01:03.27
Chaz Nuttycombe
we are getting into, um, trying trying to conduct polling, public polling for, you know, races for governor and and house of delegates districts. You know, there's no such thing as say, let's say of district public polling, right?
01:15.88
Chaz Nuttycombe
it's all like, oh, whether you get your hands on an internal or something, uh, We aggregate news. We forecast elections. We show the demographics of districts. We list in one nice, easy table the every donation received and every expenditure made by candidates campaigns.
01:36.94
Chaz Nuttycombe
and that's just kind of the beginning of what we have so far. And we got more coming down the pipeline. you know, we're, uh, starting on list of committees, list of legislators, list of bills, what bills have legislators sponsored and co-sponsored, right.
01:52.08
Chaz Nuttycombe
that's kind of the next phase of development. And I'm hoping that we're going to get it done in a couple of weeks, end of July, You know, i think this is the biggest brunt of the of the site.
02:03.88
Chaz Nuttycombe
after that, you know, we may just kind of juggle around see what states we can get out. We're trying to open up and at least half of the states this year. I think at most we would get to 38.
02:14.01
Chaz Nuttycombe
are currently up in Virginia and South Carolina. After that is Utah. So, yeah. And I am the ah president of the organization.
02:23.85
Sam Shirazi
Well, congrats on getting that up and running, and I definitely recommend everyone go check out State Navigate to learn more about state legislatures, including in Virginia this year. So speaking of Virginia, let's turn to the primaries that are coming up on Tuesday. so There's a there's a decent amount of House Delegates primaries, but I did want to focus more on the statewide races for the Democrats, because I think that's where most of the attention is going to be.
02:52.31
Sam Shirazi
First in the lieutenant governor's race for the Democrats, there's six Democrats running. And I think it's pretty hard to get a sense of who's up, who's down. and My sense is it's pretty competitive and may not find out who's going to win until later in the night on Tuesday, depending how close it is.
03:11.09
Sam Shirazi
So, Chaz, can you kind of give us your sense of what's going on in the lieutenant governor primary for the Democrats?
03:16.66
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah. So, you know, we've been kind of looking at just early vote and turnout. Last week was a pretty good week for the Stoney campaign terms of Richmond City, especially the African-American parts of the city in the East End and North and and South, which is Stoney's base in the Richmond area.
03:37.54
Chaz Nuttycombe
has been kind of catching up, it's still, when we were looking at votes as of Tuesday, was still falling behind Chesterfield and Henrico.
03:48.18
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think that, you know, I mean, Stoney does have a lot of money, but um I would be kind of surprised if he won. I wouldn't say it's impossible. I would say this is largely now between, I, if I had to pick, I would say it's largely now between Hashmi and, uh, uh, Rouse.
04:09.16
Chaz Nuttycombe
So I think it's probably going to be one of them too. You know, maybe Stoney is going to do well or do more importantly, do better with black voters and Rouse does.
04:22.31
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. That would be one of those things for, for a path to victory. You know, Rouse has come in and, uh the what like a week uh until the campaign or just under a week and you know is going after stony for the whole water crisis thing and so they're swinging at each other hashmi hasn't really taken any swings or thrown any you know and i would think that hashmi is going to win henrico and chesterfield and
04:50.98
Chaz Nuttycombe
Powhatan, Hanover, Goochland, you know, those, those counties in the suburbs and exurbs. think the question is, you know, like how does Southside go for Stoney and Rouse?
05:06.33
Chaz Nuttycombe
Cause they're probably going to come in first and second there, i would think. I'm also interested in, you know, just like, the West, I think, and the West isn't going to have that many votes, but you know, you still have like Roanoke city and, and Blacksburg and Radford and, you know, just some rural votes out there.
05:24.36
Chaz Nuttycombe
I, I don't think anybody knows who's really going to place for us with those voters. I'm going to guess Rouse. but it's, it's, there's no data to this, right? Like everybody's, everybody's saying, you know, both publicly and privately, Oh, we're up, we're up, we're up, you know, like everybody's trying to, and that's the job of the campaign.
05:43.47
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, if you're you're you're running a campaign or you're working on it, you you want to say we are going to win We are going to win. Right. You don't want to demotivate your voters or people will think that you don't have a shot at the nomination. Then they won't vote for you.
05:57.27
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, yeah. And then, you know, when it comes to Hampton Roads, Rouse is going to dominate there. I think the the question is Nova. I think Hashmi is going to do well in um and.
06:08.16
Chaz Nuttycombe
Like I would say that, ah you know, I think that's the question of just how Nova goes. But like Nova has such a lower turnout rate compared to its 2021 votes.
06:22.37
Chaz Nuttycombe
the Richmond area is just skyrocketing in terms of looking at its 2021 vote. Hanton roads is also up, just South side and Richmond ah Metro, mar Metro area, you know, meeting market.
06:36.75
Chaz Nuttycombe
has a ah large increase and, you know, that's good for Rouse and Stoney. So, you know, I think at the end of the day, this is probably going to be between Hashmi and Rouse.
06:49.36
Chaz Nuttycombe
I could see Stoney winning if, you know, he's not as toxic in the and the suburbs around Richmond as I think I and a lot of others on both sides of the aisle think he will be in a primary.
07:01.93
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, he's drawn ire from white moderates and white liberals. Right. And I think that will, ah you know, be be an issue when it it comes to like finding votes for a ah ah statewide path. Right.
07:16.29
Chaz Nuttycombe
If he does a little bit better with, would say, especially white moderates and he, you know, beats Rouse in Southside and beats Rouse in Nova, then I think he has a shot.
07:32.12
Chaz Nuttycombe
but you know, and one of the things that I think is important to note when we talk about, you know, Rouse throwing swings at Hashmi is I would say he, or Rouse throwing swings at Stoney.
07:42.37
Chaz Nuttycombe
I would say he's actually kind of throwing swings at Hashmi, uh, or at least throwing like swings into trying to chip away some of her boats. cause Hashmi is going to get a lot of the Richmond, especially Richmond liberal,
07:55.31
Chaz Nuttycombe
anti-Stoney vote, uh, which I would say is probably going to end up being a majority of the, uh, you know, top three localities, know, uh, Henrico, Chesterfield, uh, Richmond.
08:08.72
Chaz Nuttycombe
but you know, if Rouse is the only one swinging, then, you know, maybe those like, you know, people who hate LeVar Stoney so much would want to, Richmond, would want to end up voting for Rouse.
08:21.37
Chaz Nuttycombe
so, you know, that's, that's going to be interesting to, uh, to watch, And then, you know, I think, uh, Bob or Latif, uh, question is what does he win Prince William?
08:32.70
Chaz Nuttycombe
you know, could he, could he maybe come second or third in Nova? Right. ah ah yeah we could see a scenario where like Stoney Rouse place, uh, you know, like third or fourth or something. think with Latif's presence.
08:44.85
Chaz Nuttycombe
I don't think Latif really has path. because I don't think he has a lot of name recognition in Nova. Right. I mean, let's remember. her name uh the the she ran for lieutenant governor from norfolk yeah mcclellan right i think the conventionalism is that mcclellan was gonna do well in hampton roads she didn't even win win norfolk right gonna win her home locality
08:59.50
Sam Shirazi
McClellan.
09:12.86
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, So, um you know, I think that that's going to be something to watch is where Lateef plays in and Nova.
09:22.07
Chaz Nuttycombe
So i think I think I've kind of gone over everything off the top head.
09:25.27
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, I agree with you. I think it's going to be you know tough to make a call about who's going to end up winning. It's just one of those races where, especially since the winner is likely going to get yeah know less than 40%, possibly you know less than 35%, it's just going to be you know really hard to to pick who's going to win.
09:38.91
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right.
09:43.46
Sam Shirazi
So I agree with you.
09:44.19
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, there there's no science to forecasting primaries in general. You can't. Right. that They're too volatile of electorates. There's no science to it. It's all hearsay. And, you know, like internals or something and that can be on the campaign or that can be on an organization side.
10:01.76
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. There's probably been a few of those or at least one in trying to figure out who's ahead. Right. We have no public polling. of the attorney general, lieutenant governor primaries.
10:12.82
Chaz Nuttycombe
So anybody that says, I know who is going to win on on Tuesday, i think, you know, maybe they just have a whole bunch of great internal data or, you know, they're,
10:26.60
Chaz Nuttycombe
you know, just trying to gas up a candidate or something, you know, there's, again, there's, there's no scientific method to, you forecasting the outcome of anything on Tuesday.
10:36.84
Chaz Nuttycombe
think you can like you can say on the House of Delegate primaries that, and this is a very boring season, I think that's also why it's kind of easy predict. It's like, oh yeah, some incumbents are going to win and then But you know then you have like okay these candidates who are spending $10,000, $20,000, which is going to make no difference. They're all newcomers.
10:55.54
Chaz Nuttycombe
which is going to make no difference right and you know they're all newcomers No difference in determining like the effect of who's going to win the primary.
11:05.70
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, it's just, it's just kind of a, a crap game and, and trying to predict those. So.
11:11.52
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, well, I did want to ask you about another race that's maybe a little bit more easier to talk about, and that's the attorney general race, because there's only two candidates. And, you know, I'd say but in the about a month ago,
11:24.82
Sam Shirazi
You had Jay Jones who had more of the endorsements. He had more money. had like a bigger base in Hampton Road. So you think, okay, he seems to be doing pretty well. And then Dominion came in last minute, has dumped a lot of money in the race. I think overall Dominion has given roughly $650,000 Shannon Taylor.
11:44.47
Sam Shirazi
who I think and I think that's like the most Dominions ever given in a primary. So it's definitely like throwing things off a little bit at the end. And, you know, Shannon Taylor, she's going using that money to go up in air and Nova.
11:57.79
Sam Shirazi
I think her play is to kind of do well with women in Nova and and all other voters in Northern Virginia.
11:57.82
Chaz Nuttycombe
Mm-hmm.
12:03.20
Sam Shirazi
And so that She might have a path. I mean, personally, I still think Jay Jones probably has an easier path just because all he needs to do is do well in Hampton Roads, do well with black voters and then keep no Nova competitive.
12:16.23
Sam Shirazi
Chaz, what do you think about this race?
12:18.35
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, I think that's the thing with Nova. I mean, Jay Jones got blown out in Nova, right? I mean, Herring got like 77% in Loudoun and probably 67% in Fairfax County, if I recall correctly, the top of the dome.
12:33.70
Chaz Nuttycombe
I don't think, but you know, Herring is from Nova. I don't think that he's, I don't think Jay Jones is going to, have that big of an issue compared to then. Right. I would be surprised if those margins repeat themselves.
12:45.87
Chaz Nuttycombe
He's probably going to do better in Hampton roads this time. But, you know, I mean, he was, Jay was, Jay Jones was competitive in Richmond. Right. I mean, knew there were pretty much all the localities for 50, 50.
12:58.57
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, and then I think, you know, what was interesting is that those liberal college towns, Jay Jones didn't do well, right. Herring won those. that gets a little bit of the vote. So, I mean, yeah, look, uh, I doubt that, yeah, I, you know, it's, it's been what, like a month or something like that since Dominion got involved, right. Or, or got really, really involved.
13:21.45
Chaz Nuttycombe
and that's probably because, you know, name recognition for both of these candidates is going to be low and you know, this is going to be decided in the last two weeks, pretty much of the campaign,
13:31.52
Chaz Nuttycombe
And probably saw that, whether it would be in the candidates internals or something. Right. I mean, neither of them are like big names. Right. In terms of, you know, maybe I would guess Jay Jones has a little bit of a bigger name recognition.
13:50.44
Chaz Nuttycombe
But. you know they yeah They wanted to go in and fight with Clean. you know it's it's I've been doing this you know virginia and Virginia analysis and and prediction stuff for eight years now. and you know it's It's been eight years since that fight started between Clean and Dominion.
14:10.27
Chaz Nuttycombe
so i mean yeah i think i think that the Jones campaign got kind of got caught with his pants down. Maybe it saw itself in you know, we are the nominee.
14:20.93
Chaz Nuttycombe
and, uh, that they, and I think a lot of people, not just the Jones campaign, but i think a lot of people counted Taylor out. ah yeah, like I'm not, I feel like I, I think I know who's going to end up on top.
14:36.75
Chaz Nuttycombe
I'm not gonna say publicly, like, I don't like predicting, uh, you know, like so saying one winner or something, right? Like, I'm fine with, uh, you know, saying like, uh, the LG is going to be between like two candidates, you know, and then just kind of narrowing it down.
14:52.29
Chaz Nuttycombe
That's the best that I would do, but this is already a two way race. So a two person race, for AG. So, those who have my number can text me and and I'll tell you.
15:02.82
Chaz Nuttycombe
but,
15:02.20
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, you got to pick one of them. And I guess we'll we'll know for sure on Tuesday. So I guess we'll find out. I did want to ask you maybe more so about the general election.
15:14.07
Sam Shirazi
And specifically, I guess we can start with the fundraising numbers, because I think they were pretty interesting, both at the top of the ticket with Spanberger and then with the House of Delegates. i mean, what did you make of the fundraising and the fact that Democrats are doing you know a lot better than than the Republicans?
15:28.43
Sam Shirazi
Yeah.
15:29.03
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, this is, this is a really good time that we're recording. because, I had a meeting with Dr. Steve Rogers today. it, who's on one of our committees. ah He's a political scientist. Um, a really, really, uh, really good book for like data nerds and, and for state legislature specifically, it's, I think it's, it's, uh,
15:52.21
Chaz Nuttycombe
it's accountability and state legislatures. I got to read in undergrad. And so we got this data from VPAP. VPAP gave us this data because I pitched to them, you know, i could give it to the,
16:07.22
Chaz Nuttycombe
professor and he can run an observation to figure out, you know, what is the effect of campaign finance spending in house delegates races, accounting, you know, or controlling for district partisanship and come and see that sort of thing.
16:21.26
Chaz Nuttycombe
And so the observation was ran yesterday. And so we have our house the delegates forecast coming out at our forecast launch.
16:32.78
Chaz Nuttycombe
event on June 29th here in Richmond. If you want to find out more, you can go to state navigate.org and go under donate, then scroll down and go to forecast launch fundraiser.
16:46.61
Chaz Nuttycombe
There are going be 18 districts, I believe, that are within a 10-point margin. So I recall correctly, thinking back to 2023, that's a little bit more than, or it's about the same in terms of which like which districts are competitive, by margin or you know by rating and whatnot.
17:09.52
Chaz Nuttycombe
But yeah, so our forecast has you know almost 20 districts that are going to be within 10 points most likely. and you know when it comes to campaign finance spending, we're now, apply that.
17:19.04
Chaz Nuttycombe
The thing is, is like, it doesn't, uh, according to, uh, Dr. Rogers findings, it, it's not really that big of a difference. I mean, we, it can be a difference when you have a huge spending gap. Right.
17:33.96
Chaz Nuttycombe
and I think that's something to watch for this year. Cause when we think about back to 2023, Republicans and Democrats were pretty much on parity. I mean, at this point in 2023, Republicans actually had a spending advantage in 2023 and in those pre-primary reports in a lot of those competitive districts, you know, including House District 82.
17:59.64
Chaz Nuttycombe
for example, which was, you know, decided by what 50 votes or something like that. yeah Taylor spent like $50,000 more. and now, uh, Pope Adams has spent $200,000 more in this cycle. Right.
18:14.11
Chaz Nuttycombe
i mean, here's the thing that I think is, is an issue for Republicans this year. Um, Um, um, is in terms of fundraising, what is the pitch, right? Like what, what is, you have to make a pitch to, the Republican donors, people that are can donate, four, uh, five, six, even seven figures of like, why should you put your money there?
18:36.87
Chaz Nuttycombe
and the, this, this is, and look, I've only been doing this for eight years, so I can't think of the last time, uh, and when it was the last time Virginia has had a pretty much safe democratic race for governor?
18:49.26
Chaz Nuttycombe
Cause, cause Abigail Spanberger is going to be the next governor unless someone has some huge oppo, right. on, on her, she has some sort of scandal or something. There has to be some sort of meteor that hits this race.
19:02.86
Chaz Nuttycombe
so, and then, you know, with Lieutenant governor, I think that kind of depends on the primary, but I would say likely it's probably going to follow the same,
19:12.32
Chaz Nuttycombe
I mean, I can see, depending on who the nominee is, John Reed doing worse than Winsome Sears or you know vice versa. I think it would kind of depend on the LG nominee.
19:25.22
Chaz Nuttycombe
And that can also affect house seats. Like when you have an effectively done deal at the top of the ticket,
19:36.29
Chaz Nuttycombe
and you have no shot of a trifecta, I mean, you weren't gonna they they they weren't going to have a trifecta anyway because of the state senate. You know, state senate's not up, right?
19:46.15
Chaz Nuttycombe
think I think that's an issue. Like, Democrats are already... heavily outraising, heavily outspending the Republicans at this point in the year in most of the competitive races.
19:57.47
Chaz Nuttycombe
And still in 2023, Democrats had those huge spending advantages by November. So I would think it's probably going to get worse for them from here in fundraising fundraising.
20:10.04
Chaz Nuttycombe
doesn't again like have a huge impact but it can if there is a large enough gap we're talking tenths of percentage points we're talking maybe like one or two points uh in uh in the model we have um um our call corrects off the top my head i mean like you know let's look at let's look at like house district what is it uh 21 21 right up in prince williams You know, Republicans are trying for that seat last time and now they aren't right there. None of their nominees are raising, spending any money.
20:42.81
Chaz Nuttycombe
And the effect of that is going to be like a plus one, one percentage point or maybe more. depending on, you know, how things shake out and and fundraising over the next several months for the incumbent Democrat Josh Thomas.
20:56.55
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, you know, it's it's going to depend like like when they're on parity, it's not as much of an issue, right? But even if like Democrats outspend like one point two five percent or one point one point five percent more than a Republican, I recall correctly from the findings,
21:16.14
Chaz Nuttycombe
It's not even half a percentage point if if I'm doing it correctly my head. um But, you know, Dr. Rogers is going to be kind of writing more on that. um did send the the observation and just kind of a a ah small summary that he wrote to me last night, sent that over the to BPAP, and we'll see if they want to do visualizations with those.
21:38.41
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, I mean, there's other interesting tidbits in there. Like, for example, being a freshman incumbent is actually a slight net negative in terms of how your margin is going to go.
21:49.73
Chaz Nuttycombe
It's not huge. I think it's like less than a point or at least less than half 1.5%. I don't remember exactly. But yeah, so I think that's one of the things to keep in mind is if Republicans can't find a pitch to stay competitive, that could that could effectively end the Republican Party of Virginia.
22:11.38
Chaz Nuttycombe
for, you know, it could it could end it for a quarter century because if they're getting heavily outspent and spending, I'm not saying like this level of being outspent.
22:25.21
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think it is damaging to their odds of, you know, being able to, you know, stay in the high 40s in House of Delegate seats and um um But, you know, if if they're losing a whole bunch of seats because, you know, the spending gap has gotten so wide, right, and it's it's adding more and more just, just, ah you know, to the margin in these in these districts, especially these ones that, you know, Republicans represent that voted for Kamala Harris, um then that could that could pretty much, they there could be a point of no return. There would have to be a real line then.
23:01.35
Chaz Nuttycombe
And I think that is like the only pitch Republicans can make is that it's do or die this year. this, this is a map that is a lot harsher than the map in 2017 when Democrats, you know, picked up 15 seats, not in terms of what they can gain in net seats, but in terms of what threshold of the chamber they can get.
23:24.72
Chaz Nuttycombe
So I think I think that's kind of the issue for them. You know, back in right after 2023. I tweeted that if Trump wins next year, know, just like right after the 2023 election, week or two after I said, if Trump wins next year, it could be the color Colorado a occasion of the of of Virginia and my Colorado if occasion.
23:50.80
Chaz Nuttycombe
I mean that, you know, Democrats could end up getting a supermajority. it's It's unlikely, I think.
24:00.100
Chaz Nuttycombe
it is still in the realm of possibilities. um And... You know, i mean, it's just going to be tough for Republicans to hold on those competitive seats.
24:09.95
Chaz Nuttycombe
ah But, you know, it's it's going to depend on the money. It's going to, you know, I mean, where is Glenn Youngkin in his spending? Right. Pretty much nowhere.
24:19.70
Chaz Nuttycombe
And is he's probably gearing up for a 2028 run for that. Right. Which makes sense because why would you, he's a, he's a smart businessman. Why would you want to ah spend money where you can't change the outcome of government?
24:33.27
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. Cause either way, there won't be a Republican trifecta this year. It would make sense for him to do it when he was, you know, governor in 2023 and they had a shot at the majority, the trifecta, but
24:43.80
Sam Shirazi
I did want to ask you about a couple other things before I let you go. One of them is this poll that you I think you were the first one to find that you didn't do the poll, but you did kind of share it pretty widely from NextGen America.
24:56.12
Sam Shirazi
about the youth vote and they did an oversample in Virginia. Now, caveat, this is more of a progressive organization, so you would expect it to be a little bit more favorable to Democrats, kind of like an internal.
25:07.15
Sam Shirazi
But basically what they found in Virginia was that with the 18 to 29 year old voters, Abigail Spanberger was getting 54 percent and Winston Earl Sears was getting 32 percent.
25:18.38
Sam Shirazi
And this is just like my personal theory. In these off year elections, like the young voters who are coming out are like high propensity young voters, like typically either in college or college educated. So those probably are going to be more Democratic leaning type voters as opposed to the voters that come out in a presidential election. That's my personal theory.
25:37.10
Sam Shirazi
Chaz, you think that's kind of what's going to happen? Do you think the Democrats are going to bounce back with young voters this year in Virginia?
25:42.78
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think I think there's I think that's a true. What I would say is that I also think they do bounce back. Right. What we're seeing with, know, young voters in polling is that they have becoming much more increasingly hostile compared to Election Day 2024 to Donald Trump.
26:02.15
Chaz Nuttycombe
And this this is a very volatile, you know, it's a volatile age. It's it's, you know, when you're talking about that 18 to 24 demographic, right, that's when you're even, you know, just a few years younger than that.
26:12.55
Chaz Nuttycombe
That's when you're developing your worldview, right? And, you know, we all we had like a recession scare. Was there going to be recession and, you know, all the tariffs and whatnot? There's a stock market crash, right? Like voters are reactionary. Voters are interested in their self-preservation. It's it's human nature.
26:29.86
Chaz Nuttycombe
There's nothing wrong with it. And when we talk about how people develop. Your outview on life and what you believe is, you know, is is kind of those formative years.
26:41.55
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, right. I mean, that's why we had like Democratic dominance in America for decades because of the Great Depression happened under a Republican. So, you know, young voters are not happy with what is going on in federal government right now.
26:55.08
Chaz Nuttycombe
Now, what I will say is, I mean, look, yeah, I mean, this is a progressive organization. That being said, I mean, progressive organizations can do good polling. That is accurate. um know, like the for progress is a pretty good pollster.
27:06.10
Chaz Nuttycombe
think the main flag with this oversample and look, i'm I'm glad we have this oversample. Right. And nobody's done this. And I'm really interested in the youth boat. And, you know, there are four college districts that are going to be at least somewhat on the board this year. That's ah Harrisonburg district with JMU. That's the Liberty district um Lynchburg.
27:27.47
Chaz Nuttycombe
That's Blacksburg, Virginia Tech district and the Williamsburg, William & Mary district. Um, and i think the main thing to look at in this for the main caveat is, you know, when we talk about the over or not the over sample, the, uh, just the sample itself and the 2024 presidential recall, uh, they broke down Harris plus 17 and Atlas Intel, which, you know, was, ah ah they had a really good year last year, not just in Virginia, but nationwide.
27:56.44
Chaz Nuttycombe
you know, I looked at that and Harris was only up three in their crosstab. that being said, it's a crosstab, so it's going to be a little bit more, uh, wider of a margin of error, but you know, still, I mean, it's, it's Harris plus 17 and, uh, now Spanberger is up 22 with that sample.
28:14.13
Chaz Nuttycombe
And then, you know, when they're asked about 2026, it's Dem plus 31, which is a nine point difference. so I think that, uh, you know, Spanberger does have some ground to gain with young voters, a lot of ground, honestly,
28:28.78
Chaz Nuttycombe
because of how hard to the right they went last year. they're, you know, like, especially still in college, when we're talking about these, these, these college town districts that are going to be competitive.
28:39.40
Chaz Nuttycombe
And yes, I do think that if you are, if you're in college, and you are in, you know, you're in that age range,
28:48.54
Chaz Nuttycombe
and you voted for Trump and you still approve of Trump, it's less likely that they're going to come out and vote, right? One of the great predictors of whether you're going to vote is age. So I think that is true. But I think for those defectors who are, you know, who or maybe those who who voted for like third party, right? There was a decent amount third party voting and in Blacksburg, if I recall correctly. And, know, like VCU and all that on these college campuses, right?
29:13.08
Chaz Nuttycombe
them and, uh, or those that didn't turn out to vote, um, are upset with the administration, they'll, they're going to want to come out to vote. and that can either be, you know, and I listened to Ben Tribbett's episode on your show. And I think the, I think he breaks, broke things down really easily in terms of like how voter persuasion works. Right.
29:31.94
Chaz Nuttycombe
If, uh, you know, you're a young person and you're liberal releaning, you didn't come out to vote last year, you're coming out to vote this year. That's a plus one, right. For the Dems. If voted for Trump last year and now you're going to vote for Abigail Spanberger and you're, you know, one of them college students, that's plus two. Right.
29:51.68
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, I mean, that that's and that's something I'm interested in this year. Like there's four districts that are going to come down to that are on the board that you know, college students play a big part in.
30:03.98
Chaz Nuttycombe
when we talk about those that aren't going to turn out, I mean, Liberty did not turn out in 2023, right? Terrible turnout. When you look at how much of a share of the electorate it made in houses for 52 in 2024 compared to 2023.
30:15.10
Chaz Nuttycombe
And that's why Wendell Walker only won by eight points. because it's, you you know, it's like 99% Republican or something, right? It's like either the most or the second most Republican precinct in Virginia, right?
30:26.19
Chaz Nuttycombe
with Tangier up there. So I think that there's not really anything that the Dems can gain in, in Liberty, but you know, there's, there's those small colleges, Randolph and, you know, university Lynchburg and whatnot.
30:40.13
Chaz Nuttycombe
But still, I mean, if they're not turning out, that's, that's minus one for the Republicans, right? You know, those Liberty kids aren't coming out.
30:49.23
Sam Shirazi
I did want to ask you one last thing before I let you go. And i saw you know you tweeted about this a couple of times about Loudoun.
30:56.91
Sam Shirazi
So in 2024, Loudoun was kind of infamous because there was a drop of the vote in Loudoun. And I think it showed early in the night that Trump was probably going to win and because there was a big shift to the Republicans in Loudoun.
31:08.28
Sam Shirazi
But then earlier this year, there was a couple of special elections for the state Senate and House of Delegates, and the Democrats ended up winning those pretty handily. And so and you would think with the federal fallout of what's going on in D.C. and all the federal workers in Loudoun, you would think Loudoun would maybe come back to the Democrats.
31:26.12
Sam Shirazi
But You know, you and I are probably the only people spending all their day looking at early voting data in Virginia. And ah ah do notice that Loudoun is kind of lagging behind even after their satellite voting locations open. So, Chaz, what do you think about Loudoun? Do you think the Democrats are going to go back and kind of make all these gains? Or do you think the Republicans are going to be able to keep it relatively close in Loudoun this year?
31:50.22
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think relative to the environment, I think Loudoun is a problem for the Dems. I mean, yeah, look when Loudoun County dropped at 7.30 PM, you know, you know My phone is blowing up and, you know, I was i was like, look, this is not my job.
32:06.16
Chaz Nuttycombe
But, you know, i mean, I am interested in what's going on. and So I looked at him like, oh, he won. You know, ah so Trump won, you know, like and for those of us who look at elections, that's when we knew, right.
32:18.83
Chaz Nuttycombe
You don't have to wait for Wisconsin or Michigan or all that sort of stuff for to know how the presidential election went. Loudon came. That was it. and, you know, I think the Asian American vote, uh, not, not the Asian American vote, but specifically, you know, part of the Asian American vote, the Indian indian- American vote is interesting because, you know, uh, again, and maybe I brought this up in your podcast or I've tweeted it, you know, quite a bit, but it's like, why did they move to the right? They're college educated, they're wealthy, right. In, in terms of, uh, like comparison to all these other demographics that moved to the right, 2024. Right.
32:52.36
Chaz Nuttycombe
So so it was it's interesting. But yeah, I mean, turnout in Loudoun is not great for the Dems in this.
33:02.04
Chaz Nuttycombe
did they but And then also, like they barely overperformed in those specials. Like what, two or three points? That's like nothing. The average special election overperformance nationally, as of right now, is like 13.1%.
33:16.04
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. So that's like a 10 point difference. Now, public opinion is in a much different place compared to then. But even still, you would think that, you know, the the Dems would do a little bit better, especially yeah when we talk about those and what was going in the beginning of the year, what was about to be going on.
33:34.66
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, you think they would have a little bit of that turnout and advantage in their favor. I mean, hell, my district, John McGuire State Senate District, that special election, had a bigger overperformance for the Democrats, Democrats spent nothing there.
33:50.11
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, yeah, I think Loudoun is a problem for the Dems this year. i think I think when I'm thinking of... their biggest, I would say it's a bigger problem than black turnout because black turnout in this primary is, is higher than 2021.
34:04.82
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. and the second biggest overperformance, in a state legislative special was in a, either polar, uh, plurality black or majority black district. You know, it's like somewhere in that range since South Carolina.
34:21.67
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. and And we have this kind of notion of like, oh, well, you know, black voters are hard to turn out in these off years. Right. So but that kind of defied that.
34:31.58
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think black voters are amped up and they're ready to go. um So I think the main issue I'm seeing for the Dems this year in terms of like where they would have problems is it's probably Loudoun looking at everything that I've i've seen throughout this year.
34:46.27
Chaz Nuttycombe
looking back to last year, nobody's giving me a good explanation for why the Indian American vote went right. Right. Nobody. yeah. so yeah
34:55.58
Sam Shirazi
Well, we're definitely going to have to keep an eye on it. And I think the Loudon drop this November will be very interesting, although I have a feeling it's not going to be as ah friendly to the Republicans this year. But I think the exact number is going to be really interesting. So anyways, Chaz, always really interesting to get your perspective on things and just hearing from what you're seeing out there. I know everyone's going to be following Chaz.
35:20.04
Sam Shirazi
your social media and make sure to check out state navigate too, because I think they have a really cool way of looking at all the districts and just really good data on there. So Chaz, thanks so much for coming on.
35:30.38
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah. and And real quick, we are going to be mapping the primary election results. come to our site. go to State Navigate, click on Virginia, statenavigate.org, click on Virginia, and you'll see it on the page there.
35:43.47
Chaz Nuttycombe
And you'll be able to see the results as they come in. And we'll be doing race calls as well. And thanks for having me on, Sam. Appreciate it.
35:50.05
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, no problem. And this has been Federal Fallout, and I'll see you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Episode: Pre-Primary Campaign Finance Reports
11 jun· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia elections. This is a special bonus episode to go over some recently released Virginia campaign finance reports.
00:12.89
Sam Shirazi
So I'm going to go over three basic things. One, I'm going to look at the big picture governor numbers for the Democrats and the Republicans. Then I'm going to look at the upcoming Democratic primary and some of the fundraising numbers that were released and what it might mean.
00:26.90
Sam Shirazi
And then finally, I'll take a look at the House of Delegates. So the reason there was this fundraising report deadline that happened recently was because the primary is coming up on June 17th. And as part of that, this is kind of the last campaign finance reports that are required to be filed before the primary. So people have a sense of where the money is coming from.
00:47.04
Sam Shirazi
And given that the primary is coming up and it's pretty interesting on the Democratic side for lieutenant governor and attorney general, I thought it'd be a good time to touch base about what's going on with the campaign finance stuff.
00:58.02
Sam Shirazi
But before we turn to the primaries that are happening on June 17th, I did want to talk about the top of the ticket, the governor's race. Now, for both the Democrats and the Republicans, there is no primary for the governor's race, the Democratic nominee will be former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger. The Republican nominee is current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle Sears.
01:18.67
Sam Shirazi
And in terms of fundraising, congresso former Congresswoman Spanberger certainly has a big leg up on fundraising during the filing period. And the period that this report covered was April 1st through June 5th.
01:30.17
Sam Shirazi
So of a little over two months. ah former Congresswoman Spanberger raised over six and a half million dollars and she has 14.3 million dollars cash on hand.
01:42.37
Sam Shirazi
So obviously she's posting some big numbers and you know going back to the days of her congressional races, Congresswoman Spanberger has always been good at raising money. And so I think you're seeing that here where she's got a big amount of money raised and she has a ah ah very healthy cash on hand number.
02:00.74
Sam Shirazi
Now, for Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle Sears, she is lagging behind in the fundraising category. So she's raised during this time period about three and a half million dollars, and she has less than three million cash on hand.
02:13.78
Sam Shirazi
So that means that the Democrats at the top of the ticket with Spanberger have over ten million dollars more cash on hand in the bank. And what that means is Congresswoman Spanberger is she's building her war chest so so to speak. So she's not spending a lot of money right now because most people aren't tuned in.
02:31.94
Sam Shirazi
And so she's just able to raise money, put it in the bank, and then obviously save most of that for the November election.
02:39.97
Sam Shirazi
Winston Earle Sears, she's trying her best to kind of catch up and raise money and, you know,.Not to say three and a half million dollars is nothing, but certainly at least is not keeping pace. And obviously, the longer this race goes on the there's a risk that the further and further she falls behind.
02:55.59
Sam Shirazi
And at the end of the podcast, I'll talk a little bit more about why that might be and why the Republicans are struggling a little bit this year with the fundraising. But I think. It's just one metric among many to think about how is this year leading so far. And I think most people who get the sense that Democrats in Virginia have a little bit of an advantage.
03:13.23
Sam Shirazi
And I think you're seeing that on the money side of things. Now, I should say money is not everything. And obviously, there's been campaigns where people have more money and they end up losing. And we don't know what the next report is going to look like. We don't know if there's going to be any sort of big donations from some of the big Republican donors. So I don't want to dwell on it too much right now because a lot of things can still change.
03:33.63
Sam Shirazi
But I think just purely looking at the numbers right now for the governor's race, you you'd say on the fundraising side, Spanberger definitely has an advantage. And we'll it'll just have to wait and see how that evolves in the summer as the next report will come out and we can take a look at the numbers then.
03:50.30
Sam Shirazi
All right. I did want to move on to the primaries that are coming up on June 17th. There are some House of Delegates primaries. I don't want to spend too much time on that because I don't think the numbers really made too much of a difference in those primaries. I did want to spend most of the time in Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General primary.
04:06.88
Sam Shirazi
for the Democrats, because i think that's gotten a lot of the attention. I think that's where most people are focused right now in terms of the primary on June 17th. And I'll start with the lieutenant governor's race. So there's six people running on the Democratic side for lieutenant governor. I think it's a competitive race. It's still not clear who has the advantage.
04:23.62
Sam Shirazi
And I'll probably talk about Before the primary, one more podcast about what I think is going on. But if you look purely at the lieutenant governor numbers, I think all the major candidates raised a decent amount.
04:35.26
Sam Shirazi
They all raised, you know, in the in the neighborhood about $750,000. And they're all spending a lot of money. They're all on air. So, you know, it's one of those things where I think they're all doing pretty well in terms of fundraising, but no one is you know blowing it out of the park.
04:52.78
Sam Shirazi
and raising millions and millions of dollars more than the other candidates. So I think all the major candidates are doing what they need to do to compete and to run ads, but none of them has a great fundraising advantage where it's going to make the difference. And so I don't think this is the type of race where the money is going to make the difference. I think there's a lot of other factors you' have to look at, and I'll talk about it in a separate podcast about where I think maybe the lieutenant governor's race is going to end up.
05:16.00
Sam Shirazi
None of the candidates raise like a crazy amount of money where you look at it and you say, OK, well, they're going to be able to drown the airwaves that adds. I just don't think that's what's going to be happening in the lieutenant governor's race. And so I don't think we got much more clarity about who who the front runner might be based just on the fundraising numbers.
05:33.47
Sam Shirazi
Okay, but I did want to spend a little bit more time on the attorney general race because I think there's been a lot of interesting last minute things that are going on with the campaign finance. I think it's important to spend a little bit of time just focusing on that because I think it may change the dynamics in that race a little bit.
05:50.44
Sam Shirazi
So in the last campaign finance numbers, the former delegate Jay Jones had a decent fundraising advantage over Henrico Commonwealth's attorney, Shannon Taylor. And I think in terms of cash on hand, he had almost, I believe, twice as much cash on hand as Shannon Taylor in the old campaign finance report.
06:09.74
Sam Shirazi
However, since that time, Shannon Taylor got a big injection of cash from Dominion Energy. And if you follow Virginia politics, you know that Dominion Energy is one of the big donors. They often donate a lot of money to members of the General Assembly.
06:25.57
Sam Shirazi
And on the other side, you have an organization called Clean Virginia. And Clean Virginia is a nonprofit, and oftentimes they will go and support candidates who pledge not to take Dominion money. So in this race, Jay Jones is backed by Clean Virginia, and Shannon Taylor has been backed by Dominion.
06:44.39
Sam Shirazi
And that's not an uncommon thing you'll see in many races, more so in the General Assembly, where clean Virginia will back one candidate and then Dominion might back the other candidate, particularly in Democratic primaries. That sometimes happens.
06:56.85
Sam Shirazi
So it's not totally unusual. And that's kind of a normal dynamic you see in Virginia elections, at least recently. I will say the thing that's a little bit unusual here is the amount of money that Dominion is giving to Shannon Taylor because,
07:09.65
Sam Shirazi
you know, in most races, Dominion will give maybe like 50,000 or a hundred thousand. I mean, that's kind of the ballpark of a lot of their donations. Uh, and at the very end of this campaign, Dominion energy has given Shannon Taylor, you know, I think I've lost track of the exact amount, but I think it's over $600,000, which I think is the most they've given in one cycle to one candidate in one primary. So definitely Dominion is spending a lot of money in this race and they're spending a lot of money on Shannon Taylor.
07:38.84
Sam Shirazi
And on the clean Virginia side, they've tried to highlight how this might create a conflict of interest and how it it doesn't really make sense for a ah the attorney general candidate to be getting this much money from one donor where they may have to step in and try to regulate Dominion.
07:57.33
Sam Shirazi
And the other thing to keep in mind, Dominion has also backed Jason Miyares, the Republican incumbent.
08:01.76
Sam Shirazi
And then Clean Virginia is giving money to Jay Jones. And so this has all created kind of a lot of last minute spending in the attorney general race. And so what it's done is in the last campaign finance numbers, Shannon Taylor was able to catch up to Jay Jones in terms of the money that she was able to raise.
08:16.76
Sam Shirazi
And that's allowed her to spend more on ads than she has been in the past. I will say because Jay Jones had a bit of a larger war chest to begin with, I think he's still been been spending more on ads. It's just that Shannon Taylor been able to catch up.
08:30.53
Sam Shirazi
And I think the real difference is Shannon Taylor has been able to spend more money in Northern Virginia, because if you think about it, the other media markets in Virginia, while they are you know not cheap, The DC media market is like a different level of spending that you need to be able to put an ad in the DC media market.
08:49.53
Sam Shirazi
And for most of the race, Shannon Taylor hasn't been able to spend a lot in DC, but with this new money that she's gotten from Dominion, she's been able to go on air in the Northern Virginia DC media market.
09:01.05
Sam Shirazi
And Jay Jones has also been on that market. So all that's to say is like, there's been a lot of spending last minute in this race. And I think it creates a little bit of uncertainty about what's going on, because, know, if you take out the Dominion money, you know, Jay Jones would have had a big money advantage and you would assume, OK, with some of the other advantages he had in terms of the endorsements and in terms of Hampton Roads, that should if it make him the pretty clear favorite. I think with this last minute spending that's been coming in for Shannon Taylor, I think she's hoping that it will get kind of boost her name ID in Northern Virginia.
09:34.57
Sam Shirazi
And if she can get a big enough margin in Northern Virginia, then she might be able to win, even though Jay Jones has more of the endorsements and he has, I would say, a larger base in Hampton Roads.
09:45.38
Sam Shirazi
However, as I point out, while I think it's made Shannon this race more competitive, it's not like Dominion gave the amount of money that it's like a total game changer. I think it's it's allowed Shannon Taylor to go up in Northern Virginia and compete with Jay Jones in terms of the spending in Northern Virginia. But I just don't, it's not the amount of money unless they put in even more because frankly, they can put in more at the very last minute.
10:07.84
Sam Shirazi
But I think, you know, the fundamentals of the race are in some ways the same. And I will do a different podcast probably right before the primary where I kind of go over the races and who I think might be up, who I may
10:19.60
Sam Shirazi
who I think might be down. But at the end of the day, like it definitely is adding a lot more uncertainty into the attorney general race. would still say, just given all the fundamentals, you know Jay Jones has the advantage that he has a bigger base in Hampton Roads.
10:33.92
Sam Shirazi
And so that that should help him. And the question mark is Northern Virginia. And just like the lieutenant governor's race, the question mark is Northern Virginia. And I think that question mark is still fundamentally the same. And so while I think it's added a little bit of intrigue to the attorney general race at the end, know I'll let you know but my final predictions, but I don't know if it's like fundamentally changed the entire race.
10:56.52
Sam Shirazi
All right. And the last thing I want to talk about before I wrap up, this podcast is about the House of Delegates. And again, I don't want to go through every single House of Delegates race. I'm looking more for the general election in terms of the candidates who have been raising money. And I will say overall, I think the Democrats are doing a better job raising for the House of Delegates. And, you know, there's a few reasons for that. I think the fact, the reality is they're already in the majority.
11:24.12
Sam Shirazi
And most of the donors know that more likely than not, that Democrats are going to maintain their majority. you you you know, it's just easier to raise money when you're in the majority and people think you're going to keep your majority.
11:35.67
Sam Shirazi
So if you look at all the Republicans and all the Democrats, so the Democrats raised, you know, roughly four point six million all of the Democrats in the House of Delegates, whereas the Republicans only raised about two point one million.
11:48.25
Sam Shirazi
I'll just highlight ah one district, the 82nd district in Petersburg and that part of Virginia.
11:55.29
Sam Shirazi
You have incumbent Republican Kim Taylor, and then you have the Democratic challenger, Kimberly Pope Adams. This was a seat that Harris won by four points, and it was the closest seat in 2023. So the Republican incumbent, she raised a little over 64000, which, you know, is a decent amount of money. And she has over 34000 cash on hand,
12:16.23
Sam Shirazi
you've got to compare that to the Democrats. So the Democrat, Kimberly Pope Adams, she raised a whopping $262,000 in this reporting cycle. And she has over $289,000 cash on hand.
12:27.33
Sam Shirazi
So she has over $250,000 more cash on hand than the Republican incumbent. and I think it's just like pretty rare to see a Democratic challenger or any challenger have that much more money than an incumbent.
12:39.40
Sam Shirazi
particularly in a state election. But I think it just shows you some of the challenges the Republicans are having this year with the fundraising in the House of Delegates. As you saw at the top of the ticket, they're having some challenges with fundraising. And now you're seeing at the House of Delegate level some fundraising challenges. And why is that?
12:54.58
Sam Shirazi
I mean, i want to say that I think the last four years, Glenn Youngkin has been able to kind of prop up and keep afloat the Virginia GOP with some of his personal money and also the money he's been able to raise because, you know, realistically, he's got a decent network of donors that he's been able to count on to chip in large amounts of money to his PAC.
13:16.15
Sam Shirazi
And then Glenn Youngkin would give some of that money out to all the various candidates running in the General Assembly. He gives them to the Republican Party of Virginia, who would then give it to the candidates. So there were a lot there was a lot of money coming from Glenn Youngkin through his donations and through the money he was able to raise.
13:33.63
Sam Shirazi
And I think that's papered over a lot of the problems the Virginia Republicans have had in the past with fundraising. And he was able to kind of, again, prop up the Virginia Republicans. And this year, the Democrats, they have a lot of grassroots enthusiasm and the big institutional donors want to spend a lot of money in Virginia.
13:49.68
Sam Shirazi
And so they're going to have a lot of money. And the question is, where the Republicans going to get their money? So one possibility is Glenn Youngkin goes out and raises a bunch of money and then he gives it to the Republicans and they're OK.
14:00.86
Sam Shirazi
You know, to be honest, that hasn't really been showing up in the campaign finance reports so far. I mean, it's possible he's kind of saving his money, waiting to see which are the most important races, which are the races where the money is really needed.
14:13.73
Sam Shirazi
It's also possible he's saying, like, you know, I've done my time as you know governor of Virginia and I don't need to do this anymore in terms of going out and raising all this money and giving it to all these Republican candidates. It's kind of.
14:24.54
Sam Shirazi
Winston Merrill Sears turned to do that. i've done I've done my time and he might be thinking about his next steps. And so it's possible, you know, he'll give some donations, but not to the level that he's been giving in the last few years.
14:36.64
Sam Shirazi
You know, I think we've talked about Elon Musk. That doesn't seem like that's going to happen in terms of money for the Virginia Republicans. mean, obviously, there's a lot of other wealthy donors the Republicans have nationally. It's always possible one of those wealthy donors comes in and, you know, throws a lot of money at the Virginia Republicans.
14:52.68
Sam Shirazi
As I mentioned, Virginia doesn't have any campaign finance limits. So if someone wants to donate $10 million dollars and you know that'll make a big chunk and and take take a little pressure off the Republicans if if they get a big donation like that.
15:06.07
Sam Shirazi
I think the challenge for the Virginia Republicans is that they kind of get into this cycle where they're not doing too well. There's not a lot of fundraising. And so the donors don't want to fund even more because they think it's just throwing money away. And The money's not there and it just doesn't show up. you know i I think it's a little bit early to make that final call, but it is something that Virginia Republicans have to think about.
15:27.65
Sam Shirazi
And they have to, when you go to donors, you have to give them a credible path to victory and not just kind of tell them, you know can I please have some money? Because donors, they're looking into the midterms. There's other candidates calling them all the time.
15:40.49
Sam Shirazi
And you have to kind of give them a convincing reason why they should give the money to you. And I think that was one of the things Glenn Youngkin was good at. And in 2021, he showed that he was able to win in Virginia and that enabled him to get donations, particularly in 2023. He got a lot of donations because I think he he proved he proved that he was able to win in Virginia.
15:58.79
Sam Shirazi
And the challenge is if he looks like he's not fully engaged and there isn't a whole lot going on in terms of the top of the ticket or the and and, you know, I should mention the entire Republican ticket is not totally unified. And John Reid's running his own campaign. And there's a lot of things going on right now with the Virginia GOP. And if if that's just kind of how it keeps going, could be in some trouble come November. And, you know, November is not that far away. Early voting is starting in a little over three months in late September and Election Day is less than five months away. And so
16:33.89
Sam Shirazi
If you think about the hole the Republicans are in both at the top of the ticket and in these House of Delegates races, I mean, there isn't a whole lot of time to start raising money. And the Democrats are just they're continuously raising money. So it's not like the Republicans can just you know catch up very quickly. So I think these are all things to think about.
16:53.06
Sam Shirazi
I'm not saying in and of itself the money is determinative, but I do think it's one of those things we have to just keep an eye on as we're moving towards November 2021. There'll be other campaign finance numbers. I'm sure there'll be changes. I'll talk about them. I don't want to assume just because this cycle, this this report, these things look one way.
17:11.58
Sam Shirazi
That's how it's going to be in November. But I do think, you know, the closer we are getting to November, the less time there is to raise money and to kind of compete in these races. So all that's to say is I think.
17:22.66
Sam Shirazi
There's a lot of interesting things going on in this campaign finance report. I'll try my best to cover the future campaign finance report. The next week is going to be very busy as we run up to the June 17th primary. That'll be the primary focus of the podcast, no pun intended.
17:36.73
Sam Shirazi
And then after the June 17th primary, we'll shift the general election and we can talk all about that. So A lot of stuff going on. Very busy in Virginia. Hope you follow along with me. Hope you find this interesting. Feel free to send it to other people if they're interested in the Virginia elections. But this has been Federal Fallout, and I'll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Interview: Lauren Burke of Black Virginia News
7 jun· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.47
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. Today i will be interviewing Lauren Burke, the founder of Black Virginia News. Lauren, thank you for joining me.
00:12.86
Lauren
Thanks, Sam, for having me. You're great. And I love being on your podcast.
00:17.47
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I remember once i you had me on Pod Virginia and you were interviewing me. So I thought it'd be interesting to interview you. i follow your sub stack with Black Virginia News, and I think you do a really good job but summarizing the news and and talking about some of the things that the media doesn't always cover.
00:35.06
Lauren
That's for sure. Thanks a lot. Thanks for reading. I mean, there's a lot going on out there, as you know, and I enjoy the fact that you've got this podcast. I love it. I think really frankly, Sam, you and Fergie are the two people that, to me, really know these races like the back of your hand. So it's great. It's great talking to you.
00:52.76
Sam Shirazi
well that's good Well, thank you. And but before I you know get into the interview, I did want to note the passing of Gerald C. Jones. He is was a former delegate from Norfolk, and he later served as a state circuit judge there, too.
01:07.64
Sam Shirazi
He was a civil rights pioneer and was one of the first black students to integrate his elementary and high school. And also um his son, Jay Jones, is currently running for Virginia attorney general. I wanted to send my condolences to his family, friends and colleagues.
01:23.77
Sam Shirazi
Lauren, can you tell us a little bit more about Judge Jones?
01:26.60
Lauren
You know, what I know is what I know from people like Senator Lucas and Congressman Scott and the people who really know Judge Jones. I just know the basics of what I've read, and I'm probably going put together a podcast with everyone just sort of talking about him so that that history is someplace, because it is amazing to think about some of the pioneering things that he did that are not that long ago. i mean, it's always stunning to me.
01:54.37
Lauren
And really a tough blow and in the sense that you know Jay Jones, obviously running for attorney general, has this happen right before the primary. It's a tough thing to deal with. It took me so long to get over my father passing away, and I can't imagine you know what he's feeling right now, but I'm definitely thinking about him.
02:11.54
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I think we all are and we send the Jones family our condolences. Well, Lauren, I did want to ask you about Black Virginia news. You know, what made you want to start that? And how do you see your role a little bit different than maybe traditional media like the newspapers?
02:28.74
Lauren
Well, i'm definitely not traditional media because i I've worked in politics. I've probably worked in politics longer than being in the media, but I did work in, quote, big media, ABC News and USA Today and all that.
02:41.42
Lauren
And just feel like we're having a moment here of... you know frankly, lying. ah Lying is happening a lot, and misinfo and disinfo, a lot of which is quite strategic and intentional to enact a political result sometimes and just change the world in ways that shouldn't be changed.
02:58.52
Lauren
And I think that the legacy media is failing huge, namely the Washington Post and the New York Times. so And I've seen that, i've experienced it as a communications director. I was a communications director on Capitol Hill for Congressman Andre Carson. And of course, I was a communications director for Justin Fairfax. Justin Fairfax, course, our 41st lieutenant governor in Virginia. So I've seen it. I've seen what I know what the media should be doing.
03:25.37
Lauren
I know the questions they should be asking. I know that they should, in fact, be checking the facts before publication. and then they do not necessarily do that all the time. So it has been a stunner in like the last, I guess, maybe 10 years. I think Twitter has driven a lot of the problem because people are rushing to get information into print.
03:46.98
Lauren
And the speed question is taking over the accuracy question. So the truth is taking a backseat to speed. so So Black Virginia news happened in large part because I got tired of seeing things that were not getting covered in the Black community in Virginia.
04:02.03
Lauren
in fact, when in 2017, when Justin was... when the the when justin fairfax was campaigning I mean, I couldn't believe, i could not believe the events that were not getting covered around Virginia.
04:16.85
Lauren
Some of them were black centric and some of them were not, but what doesn't get covered is just incredible. So I'm like i'm grateful to Substack and I'm grateful to see the other Substacks that I see that pop up around Virginia.
04:30.44
Lauren
I mean, there's a lot of them that are really good, really, really good. And people are just doing some basic information about what's going on and we would not know about it if it weren't for them. So it's incredible to me.
04:41.69
Sam Shirazi
Yeah. And, you know, I like to study history and I know there's a long history of independent black journalism in this country going back, you know, hundreds of years. And why do you think the traditional newspapers, the traditional media has not always been able to cover black community accurately or or get the complete picture?
05:02.45
Lauren
Well, it's a combination of racism and not caring usually. And you you might remember after George Floyd, we had the so-called racial reckoning moment. There were several papers who put out ah ah apologies apologies for their coverage.
05:15.40
Lauren
ah you know It was really interesting actually to read some of those. And they went over the fact that in the past, they had not only covered the black community very poorly, but very negatively.
05:25.04
Lauren
So part of the problem is just the basic fact that when someone else is telling your story, that doesn't have your interest in mind, it is very likely that they're going to tell that story in a very negative way.
05:36.56
Lauren
This has happened for women too, as well. You see a lot of women-centric publications coming up the 19th and a lot of them. And, and, That was happening as well. as no women in the newsroom until like the 1970s. I think Meg Greenfield was the first female correspondent for the Washington Post. She came along in like 1974 or 75, which is crazy.
05:56.54
Lauren
For black people, it's the same thing. I mean, no one is really what I find is these bigger news organizations, The Post, The Times, they're not really interested in black news. I mean, just to give you a little Virginia example, Sam, if you remember a few weeks ago, Congressman Bobby Scott endorsed Aaron Rouse for LG. And then a few days later, he endorsed Jay Jones for AG.
06:18.61
Lauren
No story in The Washington Post. and Then that same that same week, that same week, Jerry Connolly, the late, great Jerry Connolly, of course, endorses his former chief staff, James Walkinshaw, for his seat.
06:32.32
Lauren
And of course, there's a story. Now, you could say that, well, it's a no Nova, Northern Virginia thing, but I'm sitting there going, wait a minute. Bobby Scott is a dean of the delegation. He's the only member of Congress to make an endorsement. That should be a story.
06:45.21
Lauren
I don't care whether he's in Hampton Roads or in Nova, but but the Post does that type of thing all the time. you know, they do not cover the black community. I mean, they just don't. and And the Washington Post has a legacy of that in a town that used to be called Chocolate City, by the way, Washington, D.C.
07:01.70
Lauren
And so i I see it all the time and it just got frustrating. And I said, you know what, at some point, like you know, you just got to stop complaining and just do stuff, you know. But I love, by the way, the Richmond Free Press and New Journal and Guide, the two legacy black papers in Virginia, quite good.
07:16.92
Lauren
But the reasons are obvious, but you know, the black people in Virginia, 20% of the population, there should be more stories about what's happening in black communities.
07:26.95
Sam Shirazi
Well, I appreciate you being one of the voices that are bringing some of those stories out that might not be covered. I did want to shift gears a little bit to the elections this year in Virginia. You mentioned couple endorsements in the primary by Congressman Bobby Scott.
07:42.54
Sam Shirazi
I do think those were important endorsements. And I agree with you that they did not get as much press probably as they should have, because I think they really do change the dynamics of those races a little bit. So first, just generally, you know what are you seeing on the Democratic primary?
07:56.51
Sam Shirazi
side, and then we can talk about the general election after we talk about the primary.
08:00.67
Lauren
Well, it's hard to, it's going to be very interesting, June 17, I think. I mean, certainly LG race is, I think, kind of competitive because you really have like four people that quite good.
08:12.88
Lauren
i mean, I would say that. happen to think Aaron Rouse is going to win, but certainly Senator Hashmi is very good. Like there's nothing wrong Barbara Lateef. So it's like you could legitimately say there's like, you know, was some very good candidates there.
08:25.65
Lauren
And you know what's interesting, too, I think you said this in a prior podcast, Sam, was a really good point, which is that you have a regional, an interesting regional break there. You have two people in central Richmond area.
08:36.86
Lauren
Then you just have Aaron Rouse and Hampton Roads. And then you have Barbara Latif up in Nova. So it's to be interesting to see how much that matters now. you know, on on June 17.
08:48.29
Lauren
And obviously we have Shannon Taylor taylor versus Jay Jones for AG. And, you know, this is kind of an embarrassment of riches in Virginia with some of these candidates. I hate it when you have two candidates are really good. I do think Jay is going win because he ran before and you have that advantage when you when you've run before. you You just have the experience level and people are familiar with your name and all that stuff. But We'll see what happens. It's really exciting, you know, when it's a competitive primary. I am not a fan of anointing candidates or having one candidate or doing what the Democrats did in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, where you just have one candidate, effectively one candidate. I mean, I know Bernie was out there, but still.
09:27.83
Lauren
I think competition is good. And so we'll see what happens.
09:32.06
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I agree with you. I think the Democrats have a number of very um qualified candidates. And one of the things I've been hearing is that people are having a hard time making their mind because they like all the candidates. And yeah, I think it's one of those things for both those races. We'll just have to wait and see when the votes are counted, who the nominees are going to be. And obviously, whoever wins the lieutenant governor and attorney general nominations will be on the same ticket as the Abigail Spanberger, who's the Democratic nominee.
09:58.26
Sam Shirazi
are you seeing in terms of the general election dynamics this year?
10:01.69
Lauren
Well, you know, as you can see, i mean, to me, the Winsome Sears campaign, Lieutenant Governor Sears, Winsome Earl Sears, I should say, I don't see a whole lot happening there. She had an event in Falls Church, I think it was yesterday, that nobody really knew about. I mean, I don't see the level of, like, engagement with that campaign that we saw with now Governor Youngkin in 2021, where they put the schedule online. Everybody knew where he was going to be. Then he went on a bus tour. You knew exactly where the bus was going to be. it's like very easy to pay attention to that race to see where he was. It wasn't a big secretive thing.
10:36.69
Lauren
And I don't know what they're doing. it hit with the with earl sears uh you know obviously uh former congresswoman abigail spamburger on the democratic side is is doing what she should be doing campaigning and i just saw her in portsmouth uh last week uh she was in norfolk and portsmouth uh and made a few stops it looked you know it looked like a campaign like the actual campaign and we're telling people we're doing and we're putting out ads and talking about issues So it's kind of, i don't know whether the Sears campaign is waiting for the 17th to, quote, get going. But I mean, time flies, as you know. So right now, that that poll that came out that has former Congresswoman Spanberger 17 points ahead, that seems and feels very accurate.
11:23.07
Lauren
mean, i would just say that. It just feels accurate right now. But of course, you know how politics is. It's very unpredictable.
11:29.30
Sam Shirazi
Right. And, you know, one thing I wanted to ask about ah Lieutenant Governor Winston Moral Sears is her ah attempt. Have you seen any sort of campaigning or attempts to win votes in the black community? Because I think some Republicans have a sense of, oh, well, maybe we'll be able to do better this year with her at the top of the ticket.
11:48.59
Sam Shirazi
do you think it it's just not going to matter one way or another?
11:52.34
Lauren
It matters. And I think she probably will try to do something policy-wise. You know, usually what is talked about is HBCUs. And four years ago, Youngkin did that. He basically came out and said, hey, I'm going to fund HBCUs. And if you probably remember that former governor Doug Wilder gave Terry McAuliffe hard time on the HBCU question. And then, you know, that kind of spiraled. But, you know, that's usually how, you know, if people talk about education, that's something that that Republicans can universally say. I suspect Sears will say something.
12:21.88
Lauren
I do think it's a problem when your running mate, John Reed, is putting out tweets. I say tweets because I don't like Elon Musk. I still call it Twitter. You know, putting out stuff about George Floyd.
12:34.10
Lauren
on the fifth anniversary of George Floyd's death that really is a deal breaker. Like, you know, if a black voter sends that that John Reed tweet to another black voter, it's game over. like Nobody is going to, to the extent they were considering, consider him after something like that. So I suspect that the Sears campaign didn't know anything about that. But I don't know what they're going to do.
12:56.86
Lauren
They got to do something and more than what they're doing, which that wouldn't be too hard to achieve because it just feels weird. It feels like there's almost no campaign. And you can see like on social media, you see, Sam, there's a lot of griping amongst Republicans about Earl Sears' campaign.
13:12.15
Lauren
I think that that's well earned right now, but we'll see. We'll see what happens. I can't i can't imagine that it'll be this quiet for too much longer.
13:20.33
Sam Shirazi
Yeah. I mean, i imagine at some point the ah campaign's got to pick up, but we'll see.
13:26.03
Lauren
yeah Yeah.
13:27.32
Sam Shirazi
I did want to ask you about the Democrats because, know, you mentioned that Virginia has, I think, of I think it's over 20% of the population is black. And I often tell people, you know, the base of the Democratic Party in Virginia is black voters.
13:41.43
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, there's a lot of focus on Nova and the suburbs. And obviously that's important for Democrats as well. But, you know, ah election after election, the voters that are consistently the most Democratic are black voters in Virginia.
13:53.75
Sam Shirazi
And I think sometimes there might not be a recognition of that, particularly if among some of the maybe consultant class, which is more based in Northern Virginia and is not as familiar with other parts of Virginia.
14:05.05
Sam Shirazi
So what can the Democrats do to energize black voters this year in Virginia to ensure that they are coming out and they are also valued as part of the base of the Democratic Party in Virginia?
14:15.23
Lauren
I'll show up and talk about their issues and the issues that people care about in a forthright way. But there was always this kind of, you know, pushing and pulling with the Democratic Party when it comes to the base of the party.
14:28.72
Lauren
And, you know and ah you you know, in states like, you know, Maryland and Virginia, 34 percent black and ah Virginia, I think, is 20, 21 percent. But that base of the party that shows up for you in that voting booth and 95 percent of the time votes for you, you kind of want to get their support, right? You want to get them motivated to.
14:50.52
Lauren
show up or the couch wins. And I think the couch kind of won last year with regard to Harris v. Trump. So, I mean, there is always this conflict of what issues to bring up. Unfortunately, so much of the time of the Democratic Party they kind of corner off, they they cordon off issues of, you know, justice reform. We're talking about Black people, we're talking about justice reform all the time or, you know, felon voting rights. And it's got to extend further than that.
15:19.94
Lauren
And I think it is going to be a an interesting journey for the Spanberger campaign. I think it becomes a lot easier depending on who...
15:30.61
Lauren
the candidates are for LG and AG. So this question becomes a lot easier to answer based on that. Because of course we do have an interesting moment here where could have actually three women running on the Democratic side.
15:45.79
Lauren
You also could very easily see a a ticket where you have Abigail Spanberger and two black men. So I don't know which combination it's going to be, but they do have to work on the question in this very anti-black moment that we have coming out of the federal government with regard to Donald Trump.
16:05.97
Lauren
They've got to figure out how to message black folks in a way that isn't the same old thing and it is motivating and and inspiring for people to vote because people are getting As time goes on, and I think this is in part the product of media just in our face all the time and just knowing everything, you know whether we're on social media or otherwise, people want results and they want to see results and they want to feel like there are results and that there is change out there.
16:32.43
Lauren
And they will start to ask questions, particularly in this moment where we have a historic set of African-Americans in Virginia in charge. People are going to want to know What are you doing and what how have you made my life better is the central question. So the Democratic Party, unfortunately, Sam, is not good at marketing the things they do do.
16:51.35
Lauren
And then they seem to be reticent and afraid to really talk race. And people see that. mean Black voters see that. They can see that that's happening. And that's got to be fixed at some point.
17:03.25
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I think those are all very, very good points. And, you know, i i think the point about just meeting the voters and talking them about the issues is important. And one of the things I heard after the last election where Democrats didn't do as well as they traditionally did with Hispanic voters is they want to be talking about the normal issues with them as well and not just focus on immigration with Hispanic voters, you know, because that may not be the only thing they care about. And I think it's similar as you the issues that you've raised are really important for the Democrats to talk about in Virginia this year. So I did want to ask you about one House district district.
17:39.38
Sam Shirazi
because I know you spend a decent amount of time in Hampton Roads and you're familiar with the Suffolk area. And there is a House District, House District 89, which I believe Vice President Harris carried by about three points last year.
17:53.57
Sam Shirazi
There will be a primary on both sides because the current Republican incumbent Baxter Ennis is retiring. And so the nominees for the parties are still being finalized in that district.
18:05.42
Sam Shirazi
But can you tell me a little bit about the district? Because it's it's kind of an interesting district where it includes some of the rural parts of Suffolk, but then it goes all the way into more suburban and urban parts of Chesapeake.
18:17.66
Lauren
Yeah, it's got a part that's rural and then it's got a part that's kind of really hitting a lot of development. And Suffolk is big. like So it's sort of a little of both. You know, cotton fields and and s**t know farming on one side and then all of a sudden it's sort of developed and I think getting a little bit too overdeveloped on on another side.
18:41.16
Lauren
Baxter Ennis, of course, has vacated that seat and I think that seat is actually a red seat, by the way. But but i do think in a year like this, where we have the craziness of Donald Trump in the background, frankly, I do think the Democrats going to pick up seven or eight seats. And this is one of them that I think would be a good one to pick up or one that they should be very hopeful about.
19:05.29
Lauren
one in Suffolk. And of course, Karen Jenkins had run two years ago. i think it's I do think it's a lean red, although you do say it's a plus plus blue, which you you know you're probably right. But when I'm down there, I get a very Republican feeling. But I don't know. I just i do think i think the Democrats have a shot in a lot of these closer seats.
19:26.56
Lauren
And anything that is a plus, minus you know two or three, they should have a very good shot. Because the voters are looking to say, we are tired of worrying about our health care. We're tired of you know listening to stories about federal job cuts. And that, of course, is going to impact the entire economy in Virginia.
19:45.23
Lauren
And that is going hit home in a big way. And one way they can they can you know show their displeasure is voting against the Republican Party. and So that I just think there's going to be a big pickup for the Democrats in the House of Delegates.
19:59.03
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, we'll see. and And I take your point. I mean, it's really kind of a marginal district. And, you know, in theory, it could go either way. And I think if the Democrats have a good night, it's one of those seats that could flip. So we'll see what happens there.
20:12.27
Sam Shirazi
Well, know, I really appreciate you taking the time to come on here and talk about some of these issues. And I give you a perspective. You know, I definitely encourage people to check out your sub stack and follow your social medias because I think you definitely give an interesting perspective. And as we discussed, that's sometimes missing. And, you know, I always learn something new when I look at your sub stack or I see your social media. So I really appreciate you taking the time to come on and talk to me.
20:37.76
Lauren
Oh, absolutely. lot of fun. Don't let that Michael Pope talk into music, Sam. Okay. love good i love it
20:43.33
Sam Shirazi
Well, you know, I will say, i listen, you also have a podcast as part of Black Virginia News, and I like a lot of the the sound effects you got. You got definitely have better sound effects than news.
20:53.19
Lauren
It's easy. It's epidemic sound. I probably should pay me some money for sponsorship. But I like the fact that your podcast just starts. like I like that if you just get right into it, it's fine. There's nothing wrong with that.
21:03.86
Lauren
ah Because I like things to just start and let's just get right to it. So very good job. And thanks for having me on. I really appreciate it.
21:10.13
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, no problem. Thank you so much. And this has been Federal Fallout, and I'll see you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Episode 15: A Historical Look at Why the Virginia Elections Matter
7 jun· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.74
Sam Shirazi
Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This episode, we will go over why the Virginia elections matter and go over some of the history of the Virginia elections over the last 20 years.
00:14.88
Sam Shirazi
And the reason and I want to do this podcast is... Because I talked about the fallout between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. and ah ah And in that emergency podcast, I talked a little bit about the history of Virginia elections and how they're often a referendum on the incumbent president.
00:31.07
Sam Shirazi
And I thought it'd be a good time to now talk about that history in a little bit more detail in this podcast. And the title of the podcast, Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia Elections, makes it clear that this entire podcast, for the most part, is about one election in one year in Virginia, which, you know, it's it's a lot to have a podcast every week and just talk about one election.
00:52.72
Sam Shirazi
But I do think the Virginia elections are really important, and I will talk about the historical reason why they're really important. But also, even if you look at this year in Wisconsin, the only statewide, big statewide race we had this year so far was the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
01:05.60
Sam Shirazi
And when the Democrats won that election pretty handily by 10 points, I would say that was the beginning of the end of Elon Musk's time on the MAGA train. And it was pretty clear that the Republicans were going to throw him off the train because he was going to lead to further losses, including in Virginia.
01:23.70
Sam Shirazi
And so I think the fact that that election was a big win for the Democrats sent a message and really changed the whole trajectory of Elon Musk's time with the federal government. And now it has led to this feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump.
01:38.19
Sam Shirazi
And I do think there's been this nationalization of Virginia elections, state elections for a long time, going back 20 years, I would say. I mean, you could argue even before that they were nationalized, but I think the really first big national Virginia election was 2005, and I'll talk a little bit more about that.
01:56.35
Sam Shirazi
But the point I'm trying to make is the Virginia elections are not just about state, local issues. Sometimes they are, sometimes those issues are important, but they often take this national character and there're Both parties come in, they spend a lot of money, and they often influence the midterms the following year and even have influences on the presidential election down the line. so I really do think the Virginia elections are important. And I don't want to forget there are also New Jersey elections this year. And I don't want to ignore the New Jersey elections. But the reality is for the last 20 years, I would say the Virginia elections have been more important.
02:29.23
Sam Shirazi
We will see if this year is the exception and maybe New Jersey will get more attention. Maybe the New Jersey race will be closer than the Virginia race. But I would say going all the way back to 2005, the Virginia election has typically been the one that's gotten more attention.
02:41.88
Sam Shirazi
And so we'll we'll talk about the history of Virginia elections going back to 2005. two thousand five So 2005 was really the first nationalized Virginia state election, in my opinion.
02:53.04
Sam Shirazi
So if you think about what happened, George W. Bush was reelected in 2004, including by virginia winning Virginia by a decent margin. And the perception back then was Virginia was this red state, even though Mark Warner had won for the governor's race in 2001.
03:07.12
Sam Shirazi
The Bush was able to win in 2004. And so people perceived Virginia to be this red state. But after 2004, a lot of things happened in 2005 that didn't help the Republicans.
03:19.28
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, the Iraq war was still ongoing and that was not going well. And more U.S. troops were dying every day and every week in Iraq.
03:29.07
Sam Shirazi
in iraq And then in the summer of 2005, you had Hurricane Katrina hit and the devastation of that caused and the perceived failure of the federal government to effectively respond to Hurricane Katrina.
03:41.09
Sam Shirazi
And I think that really led to President Bush's approval ratings and nosediving. And that created this environment where were able this. the Democrats in Virginia had an opportunity to win the governor's mansion again with Tim Kaine.
03:53.56
Sam Shirazi
And I think that election specifically, there was a lot of focus, a lot of outside groups started to come in. There was a lot of a sense of we can send a message with this election. We can start pushing back on the Bush administration. And you saw a lot of the progressive activists getting involved in the early days of the blogosphere and Democratic blogs got involved in that election.
04:15.41
Sam Shirazi
And I think the reason it was really nationalized. So I talked about this in a previous podcast. During the last days of that campaign, President Bush came in and campaigned for the Republican candidate in 2005. And the perception is that kind of backfired on the Republicans and that helped Tim Kaine.
04:31.60
Sam Shirazi
And so The Democrats got the win in 2005, and there was a sense that this was maybe ah ah referendum on Bush. And the the message that the voters sent was that they were not happy with President Bush, and that led to Tim Kaine winning.
04:45.74
Sam Shirazi
And obviously, Tim Kaine winning the governor's race you you know just for his own career was important because that led to him eventually becoming a senator. He was on the national ticket in 2016, and he was reelected last year to the Senate. So I think it had a lot of long-term implications for Virginia. but And that was really, i would say, along with Warner winning in 2001, but then Kane winning in 2005. And then the big transformation was in 2006 at the federal level when Jim Webb won that state, that Senate race.
05:15.52
Sam Shirazi
And then obviously in 2008, after the Democrats won the governor's race in 2005, they won the Senate race in 2006. I think The Obama campaign really saw Virginia as a top target and ah and and they were able to flip Virginia where it voted for the Democrat and the for the first time in a long time since 1964 with LBJ. So you saw that that 2005 election really foreshadowed the Democratic win in 2006 in Virginia with the Senate race and then the Democratic win at the presidential level in 2008 with Barack obama
05:51.96
Sam Shirazi
But the Virginia elections can be very fickle and they often see so huge swings between elections. So in 2008, President Obama won Virginia and he got a big landslide nationally, came in during the height of the Great Recession. Obviously, the Republicans were punished at the polls for what happened when George Bush was president.
06:14.64
Sam Shirazi
But ah It's tough inheriting an ah economy economy like that. And President Obama started to take some action, including the his stimulus bill. But the the reality is the country was in such a big hole that it was going to take a long time to recover from the Great Recession.
06:29.30
Sam Shirazi
And what ended up happening was by November of 2009, the economy was still not in great shape. And I think um The Republican candidate that year, Bob McDonald, was really able to take advantage of that.
06:42.46
Sam Shirazi
And I mentioned before he ran on the slogan, and Bob for jobs, and really talked about the economy. And again, we saw the 2009 election. ah election election in Virginia basically be a referendum on President Obama and his handling of the economy, and that did not go well for the Democrats.
06:59.77
Sam Shirazi
And again, this was a preview of what was going to happen in 2010 when there was a huge backlash against the Democrats during the 2010 midterms when there was a red wave.
07:10.77
Sam Shirazi
And the Democrats ended up losing three House seats in Virginia specifically. So I think the 2009 Virginia elections, again, were nationalized and were a little bit of a preview of what would happen 2010.
07:25.14
Sam Shirazi
I will say by 2012, the economy was doing better. And I think President Obama was able to recover to the point that he was able to win Virginia 2012 and 2010. and Tim Kaine was able to get elected to the Senate for the first time. So it shows you that it's not always, you know, there's always obviously three years between the Virginia governor's race and the presidential race. And I think that's enough time where things can change.
07:50.58
Sam Shirazi
But often between the midterm and the Virginia governor's race, it's just a year. and And often what happens in the Virginia governor's race also happens in the midterm. I did want to talk a little bit about 2013 because that was the exception, I would say, to this general rule of the Virginia election being a referendum on the president. However, I would say it was still a national referendum in some ways, but it was just a referendum on the Republicans. So as I mentioned, Barack Obama wins Virginia in 2012. You would think the Republicans would be able to do well in Virginia again because they are not in the White House and they did well in 2009.
08:24.37
Sam Shirazi
However, they nominated Ken Cuccinelli, who, you know, is perceived to be pretty right wing, especially for Virginia and especially on social issues where Virginia tends to be maybe a more socially liberal state, even if fiscally it's more of a moderate state.
08:38.71
Sam Shirazi
And the Democrats nominated Terry McAuliffe. And I think for a while that race, you know, it was unclear who would have the advantage. And, you know, the the race was kind of chugging along. And then in November in October of that year, 2013, the Republicans in the House decide to shut down the government, trying to defund Obamacare.
09:01.19
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, Virginia, very dependent on the federal government, as we've talked about. And that was one of maybe the original federal fallouts in Virginia, the Republicans were. You know, if you have that level of a shutdown right before a Virginia election, it is not going to go well for the Republicans if they are the ones perceived to be shutting down the government.
09:19.17
Sam Shirazi
And indeed, it not did not go well for the Republicans in Virginia. And Terry McAuliffe was able to win, you know, relatively a narrow victory, but a win's a win. And certainly going against the tide of history where he was able to win, even though Democrats were in the White House.
09:34.56
Sam Shirazi
most people say that was because of the government shutdown. Now, I think part of it, too, was that Ken Cuccinelli was probably too right wing, especially on social issues for Virginia. and And that was part of the reason that Republicans lost that year.
09:47.82
Sam Shirazi
But that was kind of the exception where the Virginia election was not a refer refer referendum on the incumbent president. And that was partly just because of what the Republicans did in D.C. But I do think it was more of a ah ah referendum on the but party in D.C. that was wielding its power, so to speak, more. And that was the Republicans of that time shutting down the government.
10:09.07
Sam Shirazi
All right. So let's fast forward to 2017. So in 2016, President Trump was elected for the first time and he comes into office.
10:20.32
Sam Shirazi
And while the changes he's making to the federal government are certainly not as drastic as they are this time, i think at that time they were perceived to be very drastic because we had not been used to President Trump yet. And obviously it it caused a backlash in Virginia in 2017. And I think it really energized the Democratic activists.
10:39.99
Sam Shirazi
And I would say, you know, more so than in any of the elections before that, the Virginia elections once again became nationalized. And I think there was a sense of we need to send a message. to to Donald Trump, the Democrats were saying, we need to win the Virginia election and we did need to send a message.
10:56.88
Sam Shirazi
for for much of that campaign, it was not obvious the Democrats were going to win. i think, you know, President Trump, people were unsure how popular he was and If he was able to maybe bring out these voters who in the past hadn't voted in Virginia elections.
11:12.80
Sam Shirazi
But what ended up happening is Democrat Ralph Northam got a big win in 2009. Sorry, he got a big win in and won by almost nine points and you know, if that was, again, a little bit of a preview of what was coming. So in 2018, the Democrats were able to flip three House seats in Virginia, and they won the Senate race really big in Virginia.
11:34.30
Sam Shirazi
And then in 2020, they won the presidential race really big in Virginia by 10 points, and they won the Senate seat in 2020 in Virginia. So I think 2017 was certainly, i think, in hindsight, a referendum on Trump in Virginia. I think At the time, it wasn't as clear and it wasn't as clear if the Democrats were going to do well. Obviously, in hindsight, it became much more clear that the Democrats were doing well in Virginia. And that continued throughout the first Trump administration.
12:01.62
Sam Shirazi
So, again, you saw that this Virginia election became nationalized. But as I mentioned, Virginia elections can be very fickle and the pendulum swings back and forth. And obviously, 2020, President Biden gets elected.
12:14.43
Sam Shirazi
And then we had the Virginia elections in 2021. I'd say the first few months of President Biden's term, things were going OK. Then there were some issues with the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
12:25.77
Sam Shirazi
And I think at that point, people were getting a little bit tired of all the COVID precautions that were going on. And so Glenn Youngkin was able to come in, take advantage of that, take advantage of the fact that President Biden was getting more unpopular.
12:38.88
Sam Shirazi
And I think, again, he was able to turn the Virginia elections into a little bit of a referendum on President Biden, but I'd also say on some of the COVID protests. precautions that had still been going on.
12:50.84
Sam Shirazi
And Glenn Youngkin was able to get a narrow win in 2021 by two points. And I think, again, it's this idea that the Virginia elections at that time, and this time as the Republicans, the Republicans wanted to send a message that, know, we're fed up with some of the stuff that's going on in D.C. with Biden, and we want to send a message.
13:08.95
Sam Shirazi
And you saw a lot of outside attention on Glenn Youngkin. He went on Fox News a lot. They wanted to feature him a lot. So it didn't really become a super hyper local Virginia election, it became super nationalized in many ways. And this time the Republicans were able to turn the Virginia election to their advantage and make it a referendum on the incumbent president.
13:30.31
Sam Shirazi
And then you saw next year in the midterms, while it wasn't a massive red wave that everyone thought was coming, the Republicans still did okay. And they were able to pick up a house seat in Virginia in the second district.
13:41.69
Sam Shirazi
And then obviously in 2024, uh, president Biden was not able to end up running for reelection and the Democrats, while they did win Virginia, it was by six points and vice president Harris nationally was not able to win the election.
13:54.75
Sam Shirazi
And so we saw that maybe, the Virginia elections in 2021, where a little bit of a preview of what was coming down the line. I would say that the midterm hit was maybe dulled a little bit because of the Dobbs decision in 2022 and the overturning of Roe.
14:09.45
Sam Shirazi
But still, you know, there was clearly energy on the Republican side. And that was eventually shown in 2024 when Donald Trump was able to win the back of the White House.
14:20.91
Sam Shirazi
So the question is, what happens this year? I mean, I've talked about it before. I mean, my sense is this election will still be a referendum on Trump, especially given all the federal fallout about what's going on in D.C.
14:32.71
Sam Shirazi
I think the Democrats very explicitly, both the pitch to their donors and outside groups, and I think to the people in Virginia, want to make this referendum on Trump. I think they tell...
14:44.49
Sam Shirazi
their supporters that, you know, if the Democrats get a big win here in Virginia, it will make a difference nationally. And they they want to nationalize the election as much as possible. the Republicans, it's a little bit unclear what the strategy is, but they are probably not trying to make this a referendum on Trump as much as maybe talk about some of the local issues or talk about some of the more culture issues that they like to talk about and maybe try to change the the focus from Trump. But the reality is when you are the party in the White House, you and especially someone like Donald Trump, who likes to be the center of attention, it's going to be very hard to talk about anything else other than Donald Trump in this election.
15:23.48
Sam Shirazi
And I do think there's a scenario where, you know, We look back and if the Democrats get a big year, a big win this year in Virginia, there will be a sense of, oh, this was just another referendum on the incumbent president. And this was just like 2017 when you know there was a backlash to what Trump did in D.C.
15:41.06
Sam Shirazi
And I do think. And the Democrats, the bigger the win, the bigger the message. I mean, I think if they do get a big win this year in Virginia, it will send a message not just in Virginia, but across the country and even across the world where people will pay attention and see that maybe there is this backlash to what President Trump is doing, and especially the downsizing the federal government and the firing of federal workers.
16:02.97
Sam Shirazi
I think the Republican hope is that, you know, maybe they can still win this year in Virginia, or even if they don't end up winning, they can keep it close. And that will show that people are still supporting President Trump and that he's not this super unpopular figure that the Democrats think he is. I think that was it was a little bit of a wake up call for the Democrats in 2024, because the sense was particularly after President Biden dropped out and Vice President Harris came in the ticket, there was a sense of, OK,
16:28.91
Sam Shirazi
It seems like President Trump is not super popular and you know we have a different candidate. you know We should be winning this election really easily. And I think there was a you know a rude awakening for many Democrats when not only did Trump win, but he he had a bigger win than he had in 2016.
16:43.76
Sam Shirazi
And so I don't think you could discount the possibility that there are a lot of people who support President Trump and they can certainly come out in the Virginia elections. At the same time, I think the Republicans have to be realistic with themselves. And this is Virginia. There's a lot of federal employees. there's a lot of impact from what's going on in the federal government.
16:59.51
Sam Shirazi
And can't just kind of wish that away. And you can't just say, oh, well, all those people already are Democrats, because the reality is a lot of those people aren't Democrats, especially in a place like Hampton Roads. People, jobs might be tied to the federal government, but they might might have more of a military background. They might be more of a swing a voter.
17:15.39
Sam Shirazi
So I don't think the Republicans can sleep that easy at night just telling themselves every single federal worker is a Democrat. I do think they have to take the threat that there will be this backlash in Virginia seriously.
17:27.05
Sam Shirazi
And they have to think of ways both to get their voters out in November and to keep the more moderate swing voters in their side of the aisle as opposed to going over to the Democrats.
17:37.25
Sam Shirazi
And I'll kind of end the podcast with one really interesting historical fact. So I mentioned 2013 was a little bit of an exception. But if you think about 2013, even though Obama was in the White House, there was a Republican governor in the governor's mansion. So right now,
17:50.80
Sam Shirazi
We have a Republican governor in the with Glenn Youngkin and then obviously the Republican president with Donald Trump. So that means both the governor's mansion and the White House, it's the same party in Virginia. And the last time that a party that has controlled the governor's mansion and the White House has won the Virginia governor's election was all the way back in 1973.
18:12.63
Sam Shirazi
So we are talking about 52 years was the last time that kind of a similar situation where you had a Republican in the White House and a Republican the governor's mansion and the Republicans were able to win.
18:22.86
Sam Shirazi
So I think that just gives you a sense of the historical challenge the Republicans have this and this election, even if you put aside all the federal fallout and you put aside everything else and the candidates that are running just, you know,
18:36.06
Sam Shirazi
purely look at the historical trends. I think it's just, it's a tough, it's a tough year for the Republicans. And I think, you know, we'll have to just wait and see what the final numbers look like when the election is over.
18:47.84
Sam Shirazi
But I do think the Republicans have to take this year seriously in Virginia, given historical trends. Obviously, Every election is unique just because something happened in the past doesn't mean it's going to happen in the future. 2013 showed us this where it is possible for a party to win the governor's race if they have the White House.
19:05.60
Sam Shirazi
I think 2013 depended a lot what was going on in D.C. And in theory, if the Democrats do something crazy in D.C., you know, maybe that'll change the dynamics. But frankly, And this has been something that the Democratic activists have been a little bit upset about. I mean, the members of Congress in D.C. are not super eager to take on the Trump administration directly and sort of sort of open confrontation by at least not yet.
19:30.52
Sam Shirazi
And There was that whole controversy when the Democrats decided not to shut down the government. I think in hindsight, that might look a little bit better because frankly, the Republicans are kind of destroying themselves right now with this bill they're trying to pass and the fact that Elon Musk and Donald Trump are fighting with each other. so you know There was a calculation maybe on Chuck Schumer's part to just you know not pick a fight then, and a lot of the activists were upset. But in some ways, it might have worked out because now the Democrats are sitting back and watching the Republicans fighting each other.
20:00.26
Sam Shirazi
And so if that's the atmosphere where the Democrats are not doing a whole lot in D.C., they're just kind of sitting around watching the Republicans fight each other and Republicans aren't able to pass this bill. and there's a lot of chaos going on in DC.
20:10.73
Sam Shirazi
I mean, that's again, the environment that's going to help the Democrats. And that's not the type of environment that's going to lead to this counterfactual win for the Republicans this year in Virginia. So all that's to say is there's a lot going on. You know, there's still five months to the election. i don't want to pretend like any the election's over, Democrats have won.
20:28.98
Sam Shirazi
But at the same time, i mean, yes, five months is not an insignificant amount of time, but early voting starts in late September in Virginia. And so that is coming up and the Republicans should be mindful of that and the fact that the election campaign is in full swing and especially after the June 17th primary, when the tickets are set on the Democratic side, it will really be the general election. so There's a lot to cover this year in Virginia. I'll try to do my best to cover it all. I wanted to talk a little bit about the historical nature of Virginia elections and the fact that they often become nationalized. So I will try to do my best to cover it all.
21:04.78
Sam Shirazi
And I appreciate everyone who's been listening and giving me positive feedback. And I'm going to try to do these every week. And I hope you listen along. But for now, this is Federal Fallout, and I'll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Episode: Trump and Musk Fall Out
6 jun· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.47
Sam Shirazi
Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This is a special bonus episode where we we will go over another type of fallout, and that is the breakup between Elon Musk and Donald Trump.
00:14.96
Sam Shirazi
And we will see how all this will impact the 2025 Virginia Okay, so for some background, obviously during the last election, Elon Musk was one of the biggest supporters of Donald Trump and cheerleaders of him.
00:29.16
Sam Shirazi
And after the election, Donald Trump appointed Elon Musk to be the person in charge of some of the government reorganization and layoffs that were going to be happening.
00:41.54
Sam Shirazi
And there was an entity create created called Doge. And in the early days of the a second Trump administration, Elon Musk really took a leading role in some of the things that happened in terms of cutting funding, cutting people and agencies,
00:57.12
Sam Shirazi
and laying off workers. And that was a lot of what was going on in the first couple months of the Trump administration. And obviously, this podcast was called Federal Fallout because we were seeing all that in Virginia. And obviously, it was going to have an impact in the Virginia elections in 2025.
01:12.61
Sam Shirazi
So a lot of the premise of this podcast, at least initially, was that much of the federal fallout from Doge specifically was going to have a big impact here in Virginia for our elections this year.
01:23.46
Sam Shirazi
Then there was a big Supreme Court election in Wisconsin where Elon Musk went all in for the Republican candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and that didn't end up well for the Republicans. the Democrats had a big win in that Supreme Court election and won by 10 points.
01:39.45
Sam Shirazi
And after that, I think Elon Musk really started to fade a little bit into the background. I think he was a little disenchanted by what happened in Wisconsin. So the sense was – Everyone kind of got a message from Wisconsin, Elon Musk, the Republicans, that it was probably time for Musk to move on. And it was announced at the end of May he would be stepping down from his role with Doge.
02:05.86
Sam Shirazi
And even as late as last week, there were indications that, know, the relationship between Trump and Musk was not... maybe as close as it was during the election, but, uh, president Trump had Elon Musk and in the Oval Office last week. And, you know, there was a sense maybe Musk would just move on and this wouldn't be that big of a deal.
02:26.72
Sam Shirazi
uh, he'd go back to doing his various businesses and Trump would go back to being president and they'd all just kind of move on. But, um, If you know Donald Trump and Elon Musk, it's not their type of personalities to just quietly fade into the background after something happens.
02:45.90
Sam Shirazi
And I think there was a lot going on with this new bill that the Republicans were trying to pass in Congress. So the House of Representatives passed a version of what called what Trump calls the big, beautiful bill.
02:58.59
Sam Shirazi
And Elon Musk started speaking out against the bill. And I think there was a big moment when Elon Musk posted on X that he the bill was a disgusting abomination because it raised the deficit.
03:14.79
Sam Shirazi
And anyways, so that was kind of the beginning of obviously the the latest feud that was going to explode because neither Elon Musk or President Trump are the type of people that when There is criticism of them, though we'll just take it quietly.
03:32.16
Sam Shirazi
So President Trump started pushing back on Elon Musk. And long story short, after a while on X, Elon Musk started posting a lot of things. And but it turned into a full-blown feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
03:48.22
Sam Shirazi
Elon Musk would say stuff on X and then Trump would say something on Truth Social and Trump would threaten to remove some of the contracts to Elon Musk's company. And Elon Musk said that there was something with the Epstein files and Trump's not releasing them. And just a lot of back and forth that is going on on social media and a lot of posting about this big feud.
04:08.28
Sam Shirazi
And honestly, I have no idea how all this ends. It's just a lot of stuff going on. Pretty chaotic scene. in terms of what's going on with Elon Musk and Donald Trump. And this is like a huge change from January, February, when Elon Musk and Trump still seem very close and Musk was dominating the news.
04:25.65
Sam Shirazi
And there was a sense that maybe this year in Virginia, it was going to be all about Elon Musk and Doge. I think things are changing a little bit. And it's a little bit unclear where things are going right now in this whole thing that's been happening.
04:40.68
Sam Shirazi
And I think there are like two scenarios about what could happen. There's maybe the Republican hope for what might happen. And then there's a Democratic hope. And I'll first go over the Republican hope.
04:52.08
Sam Shirazi
So I think even before this latest fallout between Trump and Musk, there was a sense that among Republicans that Doge was fading into the background by November. Most people wouldn't really remember Doge.
05:04.80
Sam Shirazi
it wouldn't be a big part of the Virginia elections. I mean, frankly, I think that was a little bit of wishful thinking because there were hundreds of thousands of people in Virginia affected by what Doge and the Trump administration have done.
05:16.72
Sam Shirazi
And so the idea that a couple months later they won't really worry about it anymore not really realistic. But I mean, it certainly was going to be true that you were going to hear in theory less about Doge and Elon Musk if there was kind of this scenario where Musk quietly rode into the sunset.
05:33.72
Sam Shirazi
So in theory, that could have been better for the Republicans if it played out that way. And I think there's also a hope probably among the Republicans that Elon Musk, he was not going to be able to be used as a boogeyman by the Democrats.
05:47.04
Sam Shirazi
And if anything, maybe the Republicans will start running against Elon Musk at this rate. So, I mean, one scenario is essentially Doge and Musk are out of the picture. And that's generally good for the Republicans because they're not tied to Musk. And he's made a very public break from the Republicans.
06:04.68
Sam Shirazi
And so that means that the Republicans can run. their own race and not be tied to Elon Musk the way the Republican in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race was. I think part of the problem with that calculus is, well, that yeah yeah, the Republicans are probably not going to be tied to Elon Musk, but they're going to be tied to Donald Trump. And so I think that's still going to be a big challenge for the Republicans this year in Virginia, because as I mentioned in another podcast, almost and certainly Trump is going to have negative approval in Virginia. so Even if the Republicans don't have Elon Musk hanging around their necks, they will have Donald Trump and they'll have to deal with that.
06:40.40
Sam Shirazi
And now they're going to have to be dealing that with that in an environment where you have Elon Musk potentially going nuclear and attacking Trump on X So that takes us to basically like the...
06:52.88
Sam Shirazi
democratic version of what might happen or or what they hope might happen. And that is that this basically turns into a full-blown Republican civil war. Elon Musk is maybe more with the tech bros slash fiscal conservative side of things. And then you have Donald Trump with the economic populace and the MAGA movement, and they kind of go all out war.
07:15.81
Sam Shirazi
This bill that the Republicans are trying to pass in Congress is not going to go anywhere because there's all this infighting and They can't agree how big should it be you can't and how much should be cut, how much should be left.
07:26.62
Sam Shirazi
And so there's just a lot of chaos. And this generally adds to the sense of chaos with Donald Trump that he is not able to kind of orderly manage the government. And now he's got this feud with Elon Musk. And I think one of the things that hurt Trump in the past in his first administration is when the country has a sense that things are chaotic and that that he's not in charge of things. And, you know, that was certainly true, I would say, in 2020 when COVID came. And, you know, realistically, that was a ah hard thing for any president to have to deal with.
07:56.68
Sam Shirazi
there was a sense that the Trump response was a little bit chaotic. And if here we get a similar situation where Trump is going after Elon Musk and, you know,
08:07.15
Sam Shirazi
app a few months after endorsing all everything Doge was doing. And does Trump come in and reverse what Doge did? Does he try to get rid of the Musk loyalists that are so some of them still in the government working on Doge? So, I mean, it just kind of adds to the sense that the Republicans don't have their act together and the Republicans can come in and you know what are they going to campaign on in Virginia if that's going on in the background?
08:32.75
Sam Shirazi
And it makes it pretty easy for the Democrats to come in and say, you know actually, we offer a different vision. We're going to run the government effectively. We're competent. And for the average voter, when they're seeing Trump and Musk fighting on X all day, and then you see the Democrats running a relatively normal campaign with relatively normal candidates, I think there's a sense that maybe that would be a more appealing message to Virginia voters.
08:57.63
Sam Shirazi
And This doesn't even get to the Republicans who are running this year in Virginia. So obviously the top of the ticket, you have Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears. What does she do? Is she asked about Musk? Is she asked about Trump?
09:09.14
Sam Shirazi
I mean, my sense is she will have to back Trump because he's the president. And does that mean she has to throw Musk under the bus if she's asked directly about it? My sense ah Sears is she's just going to try to avoid the topic. I think she knows it's a no-win proposition to be talking about Elon Musk, so she'll probably just try to avoid it.
09:28.50
Sam Shirazi
I mean, the more interesting question is what does the Lieutenant Governor nominee for the Republicans, John Reed, do? Because he is pretty hardcore MAGA guy and he's pretty big supporter of President Trump. And so does he come in 100% behind President Trump? And does he spend time talking about Elon Musk and bashing Elon Musk?
09:47.41
Sam Shirazi
And what what is going on with the attorney general in Virginia, and Jason Meares? Is he talking about this? and And not to go too off sidetrack, but there was some questions to – Winsome Sears this week about whether she was going to campaign with John Reed and the whole ticket would campaign together. And it was a little unclear. And, you know, we still don't have an event where the entire Republican ticket has appeared on the same stage. And is that going to happen this year?
10:14.21
Sam Shirazi
And that's a little bit of a separate drama, but it's related in the sense of there's kind of this identity crisis, i I would say, with the Republican ticket, because You have Winston Earl Sears, the lieutenant governor, obviously not distancing herself from President Trump, but also maybe trying to run her own campaign and trying to show a little bit of independence and not wanting to be perceived as being 100 percent the Trump candidate, because that's probably not going to work in Virginia when Donald Trump last year lost Virginia by six points.
10:44.93
Sam Shirazi
And then you have John Reed as the lieutenant governor of candidate who's almost have to the exact opposite strategy where he's going to run as the MAGA candidate. and you know really tie himself to President Trump.
10:56.85
Sam Shirazi
And that's not a clear picture if you're trying to run as a ticket and you have the governor and the lieutenant governor candidate not wanting to appear with each other, not clear that they have similar political ideas.
11:09.43
Sam Shirazi
So I think though things have been changing in Virginia, but the one consistent theme I would say that the the Republicans constantly are facing these problems in Virginia. So first problem was when trust Trump and Musk were close and Doge came in and started firing federal employees.
11:26.57
Sam Shirazi
There was definitely a lot of hit, a big hit to the Virginia economy. And the Virginia Republicans didn't really know how to respond to that. And and their response was basically, well, this was kind of necessary.
11:37.76
Sam Shirazi
One, two, three. So that was like one big crisis the Virginia GOP already had to deal with this year.
11:43.100
Sam Shirazi
And then there was like the second crisis that happened when John Reed became the lieutenant governor nominee. And then Governor Youngkin called him and asked him to drop out. And John Reed said, no, I'm not going to drop out. And there was kind of that drama that had lasted a couple weeks.
11:58.66
Sam Shirazi
Seemed like the Virginia GOP had moved on from that and they were hoping maybe Doge was less in the news. And now they're just being hit with this turmoil where the Republican Party is being...
12:10.75
Sam Shirazi
in a lot of chaos right now. And there's a fight between the Trump and the Musk people. And, you know, realistically, I would say most Republicans are loyal to Trump. And as much as Elon Musk thinks he has influence out there in the world, I'm sure there he does have a fair amount of followers. But Donald Trump won the Republican primary in 2024 pretty handily.
12:28.53
Sam Shirazi
Anyway, so all that's to say is there's a lot going on right now nationally with the Republican Party. And that's going to have an effect here in Virginia. And I call this podcast Federal Fallout. And the fallout itself has been changing over time. So the initial fallout was really the firing of the federal workers and the cuts the federal government.
12:48.94
Sam Shirazi
That's still going to have an impact. But I think the federal fallout now might be this kind of weird conflict between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. And there's a unclear who's going to end up on top and what it's going to look like. And Elon Musk, you know, he has a lot of money. He has a social media platform on X, so he can do a lot of things. He can say a lot of things.
13:09.23
Sam Shirazi
And the Democrats faced that for a while last year, and it certainly didn't help them in the 2024 election where you had Elon Musk posting all day ah negative things about the Democrats. And it's very possible he will start posting all day negative things about Donald Trump and the Republicans.
13:25.50
Sam Shirazi
And then what what happens with the the bill the Republicans are trying to pass? I mean, all that is happening in the background. And, you know, these state elections, I've said it before, really are impacted by national politics.
13:37.93
Sam Shirazi
And so as much as the Virginia issues are important, they're not always center stage in the governor's election. And I'm mindful of, you know, this election may not exactly always be the same topic.
13:52.03
Sam Shirazi
Maybe it's going to shift a little bit from the beginning of the year when it was really about the federal cuts to maybe now it's going to be about other things. But I think the constant in the Virginia election is the federal fallout.
14:03.43
Sam Shirazi
And that's kind of the constant throughout this election. And ultimately, the election, if there's anything that it's going to be about, it's probably going to be about Donald Trump. And it's going to probably be a referendum on Donald Trump. but And almost every Virginia election, with maybe the exception of 2013, going back all the way to 2005, has essentially been a referendum on the incumbent president.
14:25.91
Sam Shirazi
So 2005, it was in a referendum on ah President Bush. 2009, it was a referendum on President Obama. 2013 was a little bit of an exception for various reasons. 2017 was a referendum on President Trump.
14:41.49
Sam Shirazi
2021 was a referendum on President Biden. It seems likely one way or another that 2025 is going to be a referendum on President Trump. And if his his approval ratings in Virginia are negative, that should be good news for the for the Democrats. So the Democrats are assuming, at least right now, I think that they're probably in the driver's seat for this election. We'll see if that's true in November.
15:01.89
Sam Shirazi
But certainly right now, this chaos between Donald Trump and Elon Musk it does not help the Virginia Republicans. And they've already had to weather a lot this year And, you know, the Democrats, not that they're everything's perfect for them, but relatively things have been pretty clean for them this year in Virginia.
15:20.55
Sam Shirazi
They do have a primary coming up on June 17th. The candidates are starting to throw a little bit more jabs at each other. I'll probably talk more about the primary next week on the podcast, because I think that's going to be a big deal as we're going to come up into the run of the June 17th primary in Virginia. But After that, the Democratic ticket will be set. The Republican ticket has been set for a while. And, you know, we can really focus on the general election. But I just want to do this emergency podcast, talk about some of the stuff going on, because it's been really crazy.
15:48.13
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, i appreciate everyone who's been listening and following along on this crazy ride that is the 2025 Virginia elections. And I'll try to do my best to keep everyone updated. But for now, that this is Federal Fallout, and I'll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Interview: Lowell Feld of Blue Virginia
31 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.66
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will talk to Lowell Feld who runs Blue Virginia, the go-to Democratic blog in Virginia.
00:13.78
Sam Shirazi
I find that Lowell is well regarded on both sides and people on both sides cite his blog, which I think that's usually a sign someone, if someone's more partisan, that they're good if other people on the other side are able to look at their work, because I mean, it means the other side is also interested in what they're doing. So anyways, thanks for joining me, Lowell.
00:36.08
Lowell
All Well, thanks, Sam. I appreciate you having me on. And thanks for the kind words about Blue Virginia. hope they Hope they're accurate.
00:42.90
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, well, you know, I appreciate you. You often allow me to post longer articles on there and you cite my work. So I always like looking at Blue Virginia, specifically on the Democratic side. I mean, you you often have, you know, really good insights and kind of scoops.
00:57.00
Sam Shirazi
And generally, i think you just have good political IQ about what's going on in Virginia. So that's why I wanted to talk to you about that and mainly want to talk about the upcoming Democratic primary. But before that, just kind of want to ask a little bit about like why you started the blog and how do you you think the roles of blogs have changed maybe since you first started Blue Virginia?
01:17.67
Lowell
Yeah, well, this will really date me, of course, and everyone can figure out you know how not young I am. I guess I should retire by this point, but know based on the on the youth movement these days. But yeah, because I started in really the heyday of the rise of the blog, political blogs, was like in the early to mid-2000s. started in 2005 with a blog called Raising Cain, K-A-I-N-E.
01:40.67
Lowell
back then to help elect Tim Kaine governor of Virginia. And were a million political blogs back then because there was no, think about a world with, I mean, it's unimaginable, right? No YouTube, no Twitter, no Facebook, no, no, and that dial up still really. So that was, that was what, you know, I got going.
01:58.86
Lowell
And what happened was, you know, John Kerry lost the, 2004 election to George W. Bush. And i mean, I was just really frustrated and and kind of like trying to figure out what I could do to stay involved.
02:11.34
Lowell
And then I was thinking about i was brainstorming with a friend of mine and we were like, what's going on Maybe something here in Virginia. It's like, wait a minute, there's an election every year in Virginia, pretty much, including the year after the presidential election. There's always an election in Virginia for governor.
02:26.78
Lowell
And so we're like, well, wait, maybe we could try something for that, you know, do a blog or whatever. And so that's how Raising Cane got going. I was working for the federal government at the time still. So I did this in my spare time.
02:38.60
Lowell
But eventually I moved, you know, I left my federal job and I, uh, co-founded the draft James Webb for us Senate movement. And then eventually I just got totally into politics and, you know, pretty much left the federal government and just did this, uh, which is maybe crazy, but, it's been interesting and, and certainly, uh,
02:59.60
Lowell
fun at times, a lot of times and rewarding. Many times there have been like, you know, some years that were terrible for Democrats and some years that were great for Democrats. And it's been, but it yeah, it's been like 20 years.
03:12.94
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, you mentioned there were used to be a lot of political blogs and i remember some of them and most of them have gone away. And and what do you think the role of your blog or blogs are today in the political environment?
03:25.84
Lowell
I mean, i you know, I think that, yeah, a lot of those political blogs, that that's where people went back then to get – if you were a hardcore political junkie, you know, that was – you couldn't go to Facebook. There was no Twitter, like I said. So political blogs were the the really the go-to place, and they they were – Very lively. And there were a bunch of them on the you know Democratic side and Republican side. But I think I think there's still I still have play a role. I mean, i just think, you know, today, like my blog, I mean, i incorporate a lot more video content, audio content, things, you know, I can upload stuff now and.
04:04.42
Lowell
seconds that would have taken me, you know, hours back then if the connection even held together. But I think it's still the hardcore political junkies to a lot of, to a large extent. I mean, the other day I went to the false church Memorial Day parade and I just know, i mean, I think just based on the reactions by people when candidates were coming up and introducing themselves the people at the parade, I don't think most people are like really follow this stuff that closely because they didn't seem to know who the candidates were. And I just think that's how it is. i mean, but so, you know, we get several thousand
04:37.01
Lowell
you know, this views per day or whatever page views per day. And so I think it's mostly people who are really following either active democratic activists or people who are in politics and and Virginia policies are following it very closely. So that's kind of who I think my core audience is for this.
04:58.98
Lowell
For me, it's an outlet to be able to sort of think globally, act locally is the way i call it. And, you know I think you can make somewhat of a difference. I'm not saying a huge difference necessarily, but if you have any chance of making any difference, it's probably more at the local and state level, I feel like, as opposed to trying to change the world.
05:19.76
Lowell
you know so i think you know over the years, we had some success with that. with We helped elect Tim Kaine, helped draft James Webb, helped him win that election, take back the U.S. Senate, whatever. he but yeah Approaching it from the local and state level you know, going that direction instead of top down, sort of more bottom up.
05:39.43
Lowell
And I mean, I've been and but you know involved with local county board races, school board races, House of Delegates races, you know, whatever. And i think at that level in a primary or even in a general election, there might only be a few thousand people voting. So, you know, if you have a a point of view and a voice and you can get that out there, i think you can have some impact. But again, it's hard to measure.
06:04.52
Lowell
and you know, but yeah, so that's, it's kind of what I've been, been up to with, with blue Virginia. I mean, it was raising Cain and I changed it eventually to blue Virginia. I didn't want it to be tied to, it wasn't specifically about Tim Cain. Initially it was, but then once he got elected, it it was more about electing Democrats and, and it was aspirational to turn Virginia blue. It wasn't blue.
06:26.58
Lowell
I still don't think it's dark blue or anything. I think it's, depends on the election year and it depends on the electorate that shows up. but yeah, blue Virginia is more like of an aspiration.
06:37.24
Lowell
Maybe one day it will all be, you know, safe blue.
06:41.33
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, in terms of the last election, so obviously after Democrats lost in 2024, there's been a lot of talk about the media environment and Democrats needing to reach people. And, you know, there's there's been a lot of, you know Democratic self-reflection because that's what Democrats tend to do.
06:57.06
Lowell
Yeah.
06:57.05
Sam Shirazi
i mean What do you think Democrats can do to fix that specific problem of maybe getting their content to more people so that they're getting the Democratic messaging out there?
06:57.18
Lowell
Yeah.
07:07.66
Lowell
I mean, there's been a lot written on this and a lot of discussion on this. I mean, the thing is that a lot of the people who are only marginally paying attention or barely not even paying attention at all, they may only get a snippet of something when they're watching a comedy show or they're watching or they're listening to a sports podcast or whatever.
07:26.100
Lowell
So, yeah, there's there's some talk now about investing money into trying to ah create the Democrats' own version of of Rogan, Joe Rogan whatever. i don't know.
07:37.48
Lowell
good luck. I'll say, I hope it works, but you know, I mean, I, I'm not, I'm not holding my breath on that, but yeah, I think to reach people, you have to go kind of where they are. I mean, I'm not sure you can draw someone who's not interested in politics or doesn't know a ton about, like they're a normal person basically. And they, they're not like us and following this stuff 24 seven. And you know, if you just start rattling off stuff about this, lg primary and ag for whatever it is they're they're not going to really even understand what you're talking about and so i mean i try to write it in an accessible way but it's still you know so i think probably have to democrats are going to have to uh the thing is what happened was over these years republicans spent a lot of money
08:23.93
Lowell
hundreds of millions of dollars probably over the many years in developing their own right-wing information ecosystem, ah whether it's on TV, radio, you know,
08:35.41
Lowell
on and the internet or whatever. And I think it, I think it worked. Um, I think it definitely helps them a lot. And Democrats just assumed that the mainstream media would kind of do the job for us. But the problem is the mainstream media doesn't do our job for us. i mean, it doesn't get out the democratic messaging the way we want it and need it to get out.
08:55.63
Lowell
the The mainstream media tries to do kind of an equivalence as two sides to everything and whatever. So one side says there's a climate crisis. The other side says there isn't.
09:08.13
Lowell
Let's debate the topic. Well, it's not really a debatable topic. But anyway, so so that's the mainstream media. and And they're trying to never offend people. Certainly they're not, they don't want to offend the right.
09:19.64
Lowell
And, and so anyway, that's where we're at with the but Democrats are kind of way behind on this because we allowed the right to spend decades building up.
09:31.26
Lowell
i mean if you go on AM radio, let's say, or FM, any radio, You're not going to get, and you hear talk talk radio, whatever. It's almost all right-leaning.
09:42.40
Lowell
There's almost no liberal content out there. i mean, there was like the famous, era infamous, I guess, Air America. And everyone points to that and says, oh, will never work. We can't have democratic...
09:53.31
Lowell
you know me because that one didn't work well maybe that was a unique case that just didn't work for a variety of specific reasons but but so yeah i mean the democratic democrats right now still kind of rely on the mainstream media and look i mean the washington post you can see what happened in 2024 they backed off even making an endorsement in the presidential race so it shows you kind of where a lot of these a lot of these people who own these media companies or papers are billionaires and they have a lot of interests and there are not they don't want to anger anyone and certainly not the person who could be elected.
10:33.95
Lowell
President and maybe go after them in some way. So, so yeah, I mean, Democrats need to invest in a variety of different approaches, I think, ah ah to reach of people wherever they are, and with different voices. And, and, you know, it's just going to be a long effort, but we got to get going with it.
10:52.58
Sam Shirazi
Well, I think that's all you know helpful background on what's going on nationally. but Obviously, we want to see what's going on in Virginia this year. So first, I wanted to spend a little bit of time just talking about the Democratic primary, because obviously, you know, you have a pretty good sense of how things are going on the Democratic side.
11:11.12
Sam Shirazi
And I guess I'll just start with the lieutenant governor's race, which has the most candidates. There's six candidates running. know, what are you seeing in terms of the lieutenant governor primary? Because that does seem like the one where there's at least a few candidates who have a shot at winning.
11:25.69
Lowell
mean, the thing is with the with both of the primaries, LG, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, there's really, there's been no public polling to speak of. What we have to go on is campaign finance numbers, and the last ones of those are from the first quarter.
11:42.81
Lowell
We'll be getting new ones soon in early June, in about a week or so a little over a week, but have some internal polls, a couple of internal polls from a couple months ago, which I really, at this point, I wouldn't even necessarily even consider anymore. But even at that time, they showed a very close race between Aaron Rouse, who's a state senator from Virginia Beach, state senator Ghazala Hashmi from the Chesterfield, Richmond area, and former Richmond mayor LeVar Stoney. Those seem to be
12:14.85
Lowell
the top three contenders. And, you know, could still be the case. i have But at this point, it's been a couple months. And at that time, almost nobody even knew who the candidates were.
12:25.31
Lowell
It was a huge undecided. and um I presume at this point, some of the, I think those top three candidates, assuming they're still the top three, are on TV. They're their're advertising. Presumably their name ID is higher.
12:38.50
Lowell
And so, we just don't, it's very hard to know, given the absence of any public polling or any, you know, object to any, anything, any poll. So we'll see the campaign finance numbers. You can see who's up on TV.
12:52.88
Lowell
are two other candidates, you know, actually three other candidates, Prince William County School Board Chair, Barbara Lateef, and Alex Bastani, who's a lawyer and labor leader, and then Victor Salgado, who's was a longtime Department of Justice prosecutor and left that job in December.
13:09.40
Lowell
And so, but i think the I think it's still between, you know, Rouse Hashmi and Stoney. And I just, you know, it's it's just very difficult.
13:18.91
Lowell
to know i mean, one thing I'll say about Democratic primaries in Virginia for since Trump was first elected, i think women have done quite well in it was like the year of the woman, quote unquote, almost every year.
13:34.41
Lowell
in the, in the, when Trump in Trump's first term. So I don't know if that's going to continue, the LG race, you do have one woman, because Allah has me running against, you know, all other five men.
13:45.06
Lowell
And so I, and I don't know, I mean, and how much are people going to be considering regional? Do they want someone make sure we get someone from Hampton roads because, or you know, cause Abigail Spanberger a woman obviously from central Virginia. So you could end up with a woman,
14:00.70
Lowell
for LG from central Virginia and also for, we haven't gotten to attorney general yet, but ah you you could we have a woman from central Virginia from, for AG attorney general as well. And so, you know, I don't know how many people are going to be voting strategically thinking we want balance. We want to make sure we have, let's say an African American on the ticket or someone from Hampton Roads.
14:21.52
Lowell
And then turnout, We just don't really know. we have the automatic ballot ballot, you know, ballots are mailed to people now automatically. And so that alone should increase the turnout from because I remember back in 2005, the first time I voted in a primary in Virginia, from it was just only the lieutenant governor and there were only like 175,000 people showed up. I mean, but we've had when they're governor primary, it's much higher. So this time it's lieutenant governor and attorney general.
14:51.29
Lowell
So, and then attorney general, you have two candidates, you know, former delegate Jay Jones from the Norfolk area, and then Henrico Cardinal's attorney, uh, Shannon Taylor. And again, no public polling.
15:01.89
Lowell
We had an internal poll a long time ago from the Taylor campaign. Uh, I wouldn't even go by that anymore. Jones has more money than Taylor, but I heard, i' I'm hearing that Taylor has been doing quite well in fundraising. I don't know. I don't have any, i just heard that.
15:18.83
Lowell
And, uh, from a good source, but whatever, um, don't know for sure. Uh, and so she's on TV, I guess as well. Jones is on TV. So yeah, that's where we're at kind of right now. And we have just till June 17th.
15:32.28
Lowell
I mean, voting is going on now and, but, the elections on June 17th. So, not that much longer, two and a half weeks,
15:39.95
Sam Shirazi
Well, whoever ends up being the nominees for the Democrats will be facing ah the Republicans, obviously, in the November general election. And I think the sense is maybe this is from because of 2017, Democrats seem pretty optimistic. They think because of what's going on in D.C. and how much of an impact that's having on Virginia, that this year is going to be a good year for Democrats in Virginia. And, you know, it it's it's hard to know.
16:06.72
Sam Shirazi
Right now, because we honestly haven't gotten a lot of public polling, and I think it's a little hard to you know jump to conclusions given the election is still like five months away. But what is your sense about how things might be looking in November?
16:19.88
Lowell
Yeah, I mean, you know, I thought Larry Sabato had a good summary of this the other day. I mean, and i mean this is nothing new necessarily, but I think he expressed it well. But of all, Virginia oi almost always, and for like this has been going on for since the early 70s, goes the opposite.
16:39.12
Lowell
and often hard opposite of whatever parties in the white house. So one exception to that was 2013 and that was barely. But other than that, I mean, and we've had some landslides too. I mean, 2009, Bob McDonald won by 18 points.
16:55.20
Lowell
Not sure that can ever happen again, but you know, Ralph Northam won by nine points in 2017. So, you know, but so Democrats are favored. know, especially also, you know, i don't know what the economy is going to look like with the tariffs and everything, but by November, by the fall.
17:12.32
Lowell
And, it's usually, you know, the motivated people who turn out to vote. And that's, I think why this happens. Whoever has their person in the white house is usually, you know, somewhat fairly content or whatever.
17:25.60
Lowell
They're not maybe angry. And angry voters, angry people, the expression goes, turn out and vote. And people who are basically satisfied don't, they tend to more stay home.
17:38.38
Lowell
And so Democrats are favored, but it's definitely not, you know, we we can't take anything for granted. Obviously we all have to do the work, run, run, you know, through the tape and all that. But I think we have a, you know, potentially um very strong ticket. I mean, the top of the ticket Spanberger, she's won some tough elections.
17:56.25
Lowell
in in a purple district when she was you know running for Congress in 2018, 2020, 2022. twenty twenty two So, you know, she knows how to win close elections, tough elections.
18:06.89
Lowell
I honestly am not impressed. I mean, I'm biased. I admit it, but I, I just look at the quality of the Republican ticket right now and the top of their ticket. And I, I'm just not super impressed. I mean, I think they've had, like, I objectively, I think Yunkin,
18:23.74
Lowell
was a strong candidate for a bunch of reasons. He had a ton of money. He didn't have profile. He didn't have a voting record, so he could be all things to all people. He hadn't said a bunch of extreme or crazy stuff in the past.
18:36.85
Lowell
You know, Spam, I mean, Winsome Earl Sears has a there I'm sure the Spamberger people have a very thick opposition research book on Winsome Earl Sears. And as you saw it earlier today, they already started rolling some of it out.
18:52.85
Lowell
on her views about abortion and contraception and other things. And so I think Democrats are in in in good shape. I mean, how big ah ah we win, Democrats win, how large the margin is will make a big difference.
19:06.49
Lowell
Now, as Larry Sabato said when he was, I mentioned Sabato, what he was saying was that the down ballot, the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General and the House of Delegates tend to be mostly just coattails off of the top of the ticket.
19:19.60
Lowell
So assuming that's the case, so however Spanberger does, if she wins by five points, 10 points, more points, whatever she ends up winning by, that's going to kind of pretty much see what he's arguing. And I tend to agree.
19:31.88
Lowell
The Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and House of Delegates candidates will kind of just follow along on those coattails. But you still need candidate quality. And, you know, each race, you know, the they don't run. i mean, they run as a ticket, but in a way they're kind of running by themselves. I mean, it's not a ticket like the president and vice president.
19:52.57
Lowell
you can You could split your ticket. I don't think we're going to see a ton of that. Just don't think that happens anymore. and so, yeah, I think that's where we're at. If Spanberger, you know, wins the election, by a decent margin, I think Democrats should win the Lieutenant governor, attorney general, and then we should pick up seats in the house of delegates as well. And, you know, know, um,
20:13.51
Lowell
Right now, it's it's very close in the House of Delegates. We had had up to 55 to 45 margin for Democrats before Youngkin was elected.
20:23.72
Lowell
Maybe we can get back to that for Democrats or maybe even a little more. I mean, interestingly, the Republican leader in the House of Delegates for a variety of reasons, seems to be moving on. And i mean I tend to think it's because, in part, he's up for a job in you know as as a U.S. attorney, but I also think that he may be reading the writing on the wall here. So I know i don't know what you think, but I think he may be... he may be looking at it and not seeing a very optimistic scenario for house Republicans going into November. So, yeah. And then, you know, I think historically there, there have been a few cases where there's been a widespread between the highest vote getter on the democratic ticket and the lowest, but yeah I just, it's possible, but most likely they'll be within a few points of each other.
21:15.60
Lowell
So, you know, unless there's like a dramatic difference in quality, uh amongst you know maybe let's say the two of the l republican lg candidate and the dem just saying it it could be anything but i i just i think mostly it's just going to be within a few points of of the top of the ticket so so that's where we're at now mostly i mean
21:37.85
Sam Shirazi
Yeah. And, you know, you mentioned that Virginia has elections every year. So let's assume the Democrats get a win this year in Virginia. you know, looking ahead to 2026,
21:48.04
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, the second congressional district going to be a target for Democrats. I mean, it's almost always ah ah battleground district, and it was very narrowly carried by Trump. So obviously, that's going to be a top target for Democrats.
22:00.98
Sam Shirazi
I did want to ask you about, but you know, feel free to talk about that district and or i'm I'm curious about the first district because the Democrats do seem to be making some moves to try to compete there.
22:01.45
Lowell
Yep.
22:13.63
Sam Shirazi
you know, i'm I'm still kind of unsure about how realistic that is given the that Trump won the district by about six points and then Whitman, the incumbent, won the district by double digits like, you know, in the teens, even though, and so overperformed Trump by a decent amount. So I think the November numbers for the governor's race in each of those districts will be helpful to get a little bit of a better sense of how competitive they're going to be in 2026. But what are your some early thoughts on Virginia in 2026?
22:43.39
Lowell
I mean, you know, assuming we have, you know, free and fair elections. I mean, I hate to even say that in a way. It sounds crazy. but But anyway, ah so and and it's hard to know what the state of the country will be. it's hard to know. But traditionally, in a midterm election...
23:00.59
Lowell
Traditionally, the party out of the White House tends to pick up seats. If there's a recession, if there's if people are very unhappy, if Trump's approval rating is, let's say, low 40s or thirty s or whatever it is, Democrats should do well. And if Democrats do pick up seats in you know November 2026 Virginia here,
23:22.99
Lowell
I mean, the two districts that the Democratic national people seem to be targeting are the second, which is in the Hampton Roads area. That's Jen Kiggins is the Republican who, you know, is the Congresswoman there. i mean, she but she ousted the Democratic Congresswoman, Elaine Luria.
23:41.73
Lowell
And so, you know, that's flipped back and forth ah ah in in the second. And then in the first that Whitman's been there a long time. But I guess the National Democrats are seeing like what you're seeing and what you're saying is that the, there's some sign of the first congressional district, maybe slowly, but surely, or I don't know if it's fast, but at least slowly, but surely moving more edging towards maybe a more purplish direction. I don't know. And the other thing is, of course, these, these Congress people are taking votes like Kiggins and Whitman just voted for this Republican budget, this house budget, which would slash Medicaid and,
24:18.55
Lowell
rack up, you know, crank up the deficit. and And mean, this is by the Congressional Budget Office. They can claim whatever they want, but the Congressional Budget Office is the definitive, you know, a referee on that. And so, ah you know, they're going to have to run on that.
24:32.01
Lowell
And that's to be that's going to be kind of tough in districts that depend heavily on ah the the federal government, the military, whatever it is. the Hampton Roads certainly is one of those districts.
24:44.15
Lowell
And the first as well has a lot of federal employees. And, um know. So, and then, I mean, an outside one would be, I guess, the fifth, but that's, that's tougher. I guess that's John McGuire, very hard right. He defeated Bob Good, who was a very hard right.
24:59.09
Lowell
But, you know, so right now I think it's probably the first and and the second. You also have, we also have a U Senate race in Virginia in 2026. Mark Warner will be up and he's definitely sounds like he's running for reelection and, you know, we'll see if there's any primary or anything, but,
25:16.84
Lowell
i you know I don't know of anything right now. but yeah, he would be, i presume, the favorite. We'll see if Yunkin, maybe, i don't think he will, but he could throw his hat in the ring for U.S. Senate in 2026. But I think he's more thinking about president in 2028.
25:35.48
Lowell
So yeah, there's some things to keep an eye on, definitely, in 2026. But a lot you know lot can change between now And 2026, the economy, obviously Trump's approval rating in Virginia and a million other things could happen.
25:50.96
Lowell
it's ah ah It's an eternity. Like, so it's interesting to speculate, but those are the districts, the second and first that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is like, you know, targeting right now, subject to change.
26:04.30
Sam Shirazi
Well, I know you will be covering it all, and i appreciate you coming on the podcast to give people the perspective from your end where you're you're living and breathing this stuff every day on Blue Virginia. And so I definitely recommend people to check out that blog in the run-up to the Democratic primary and obviously all the way up until November because I do think it's a really good source of info, particularly if you're a Democrat. I think...
26:26.19
Sam Shirazi
ah If you're Republican, there's also good stuff there. But some of the things Lowell says might they may might not be what you're looking for. But i I think it's good. yeah There's a lot of good stuff that he's able to to find and put on there. So anyways, thanks again for joining me. And, you know, I'm sure we'll see you on Blue Virginia.
26:45.16
Lowell
right. Thanks a lot, Sam. All right. Take care.
26:47.52
Sam Shirazi
Thanks. And this has been a Federal Fallout. And I'll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Episode 14: LG and AG Primaries Heat Up
31 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.70
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone, i amm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will go over the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General Democratic primaries which are heating up right now.
00:14.13
Sam Shirazi
And I will first go over the Lieutenant Governor primary, and then i'll go over the Attorney General primary. So we are less than three weeks away from the primary. Early voting has been going on for a while. So the races are definitely starting to heat up. And I think it's it's a good time to kind of touch base about them.
00:31.15
Sam Shirazi
And probably all the way up till June 17th, this will be the main focus of a lot of what's going on in Virginia, because The nominees will have to get finalized on the Democratic side.
00:42.72
Sam Shirazi
And there's also a lot of House of Delegates races that have primaries. But obviously, those are not getting as much attention. And I did do a preview of the House Delegates primary in one podcast, but I would say most of the attention is definitely on the Democratic side for attorney general and lieutenant governor.
01:00.67
Sam Shirazi
So on the lieutenant governor's side for the Democrats, there was a debate, a televised debate with all six candidates. And I thought it was interesting. you know, you heard a lot of the things, you know, common themes about, you know, opposing what the Trump administration is doing and and things you would expect in the Democratic primary.
01:18.31
Sam Shirazi
I think the one area where the candidates had differences that was highlighted was on the issue of gambling and casinos and specifically a casino in Fairfax. So I would say Aaron Rouse and Ghazal Hashmi were more on the pro-gambling side, if you want to call that.
01:36.21
Sam Shirazi
And then you had Babur Lateef, who came out very strongly against the casino in Fairfax. And I think Victor Salgado has also come out against the casino in Fairfax. So I think that was a little bit of differentiation among the candidates. Often when I hear talk to people...
01:53.32
Sam Shirazi
they They either don't know a lot about the candidates or they're a little unsure about who to support because, know, there there are a lot of different candidates running. And it's not as easy as sometimes where it's just two people running and it's a pretty straightforward decision on who to vote for.
02:10.04
Sam Shirazi
And so I think it'll be interesting to see. I think this is the type of race people will make up their mind. Basically, ah ah not all everyone, but a decent amount of people are going to make up their mind last minute and they might.
02:20.45
Sam Shirazi
be you know getting their ballot and they decide who to vote for at the last minute, which makes it really unpredictable in terms of who's going to be ahead. in the lieutenant governor primary. There hasn't been any sort of public polling.
02:32.40
Sam Shirazi
And it's just unclear right now who would have the advantage when you have six candidates running. So what I'm going to do is go through each candidate, talk a little bit about you know how they might be able to put together a coalition to win. you know This week, I also had Lowell Feld on from Blue Virginia, and he talked about you know, what he's seeing lieutenant governor and attorney general races. And so i wanted to kind of go through what I'm seeing and maybe more so which candidates might be able to put together a coalition to win. Because the reality is when you have six candidates, it's very unlikely that any of them are going to get a majority or 50 percent of the vote. think the winner of this primary is almost certainly going to get less than 50 percent of the vote.
03:12.56
Sam Shirazi
And in that environment, it gets really unpredictable. There's no ranked choice voting in Virginia. So whoever gets the most votes, it doesn't matter if it's 30%, it doesn't matter if it's less than that, will win. i think realistically in a race like this, I'm expecting the winner to get between 30% and 40%, probably like 35% is the number that they'll need to get to to win. And if you think about what happened in 2021 with the Democratic primary Virginia,
03:38.82
Sam Shirazi
Virginia for lieutenant governor, there were a bunch of candidates running just like this race. And in the end, Hala Ayala was able to win with, I think, around 37% of the vote. So I think it's going to be similar this time. And so when you think about, okay, which candidates are able to put together the coalition that they need to hit that number, we can kind of go through the candidates and, you know, think about how they might be able to get there. So First, I want to talk about State Senator Aaron Rouse. So he is from Virginia Beach, and he's the only candidate from Hampton Roads.
04:09.11
Sam Shirazi
So I think right off the bat, he's going to do pretty well in the Hampton Roads area, and he's going to be able to get a good chunk of votes there. I also think he's going to be doing well with the African-American community. So he was endorsed by Congressman Bobby Scott, and I think Congressman Scott's endorsement carries a pretty significant weight in the African-American community.
04:32.10
Sam Shirazi
So I think just on those things, Rouse is going to get a pretty high number, but based on Hampton Roads and part of the support in the African-American community. So I think he has a pretty high floor, if you want to put it that way, in the sense of I think he's going to get a good chunk of votes.
04:48.11
Sam Shirazi
The question for him is, can he get you know up to 35% roughly to to be able to win. and I think a lot of it, and you'll hear it for basically all these candidates, a lot of it is going to come down to Northern Virginia. So,
05:00.41
Sam Shirazi
You know, the Rouse is going to do well in Hampton Roads, but what is his number going to be in Northern Virginia? Because I think for all these candidates, whoever wins, they need to get a decent number in Northern Virginia. I think Rouse can do relatively less well, if you want to put it that way. He doesn't need to get as high of a number in Northern Virginia as maybe some of these other candidates, because I think he will be getting a decent amount of votes out of Hampton Roads.
05:24.65
Sam Shirazi
So in that and that way, you could kind of see Rouse putting together this coalition where he does good enough in and Northern Virginia. He gets African-American voters and then he gets Hampton Roads and that that'll get him to 35 percent.
05:39.33
Sam Shirazi
The next candidate i want to talk about is State Senator Ghazala Hashmi. she is She represents the Richmond suburbs in Chesterfield. And so, again, you think she probably will do decent in the Richmond suburbs. um That'll be kind of part of her base.
05:56.98
Sam Shirazi
And I think the big question mark for Hashmi is her support among women. And I think she's definitely leaning into the women vote. think that's where she really needs to run up the margins. And Northern Virginia, there'll be another place, particularly with women, that she'll need to do well in order to win this primary. I think she knows that. I think that's kind of her strategy. and And it just, you you know, for a lot of these candidates, I'll be a little bit of a broken record. I mean, it really just depends...
06:23.47
Sam Shirazi
Is she the going to be the candidate that's going to win in Northern Virginia? Because I think if she comes in number one in Northern Virginia and she's able to do pretty well in the Richmond suburbs, you could see ah ah her putting a ah ah coalition together where she's going to get like 35 percent of the vote.
06:37.60
Sam Shirazi
Again, I'll talk about that number because I think that's the magic number you need to get the Louisiana governor primary. However, if you're seeing a different scenario where all the candidates kind of pretty much just split Northern Virginia, i don't think she'll be able to get enough out of the Richmond suburbs alone to be able to win if if the candidates are pretty much just splitting Northern Virginia. So that's um that's her strategy. is to she's going to be and and I think she has the advantage of being the only woman in the race. And so that's going to be...
07:05.04
Sam Shirazi
what she's going to be leaning into to, to try to finish the race for her. um The next candidate I want us to talk about is former Richmond mayor, LeVar Stoney.
07:15.14
Sam Shirazi
So he will obviously hope to do well in the city of Richmond and hopefully also in the suburbs of Richmond. Although, as I mentioned, he's going to have to ah ah compete with Hashmi to with, for the votes in the Richmond suburbs.
07:30.31
Sam Shirazi
And I also think he's going to hopefully do well with African-American voters. I think the issue for him is Bobby Scott decided to endorse Aaron Rouse. And so if I had to guess, I'm guessing Rouse is going to be getting more of the vote from the African-American community. It doesn't mean he's going to get 100 percent of the vote.
07:46.92
Sam Shirazi
I do think Stoney will get a decent amount of votes also from the African-American community. I think the the thing LeVar Stoney may be trying to lean into is some of his political connections. So he's been involved in democratic politics in Virginia for a long time.
08:01.43
Sam Shirazi
He was chair of the Democratic Party. He was in the McAuliffe administration. So I think he has a lot of connections. there's a lot of people who know him. He's definitely paid his dues in a sense of working for the party, working for the Democrats.
08:13.68
Sam Shirazi
elect Democrats across Virginia. And I think a decent amount of the Democratic act activists remember that and remember the and effort he's put in the Democratic Party.
08:23.54
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, can he kind of use that in Northern Virginia? Again, he needs to get a decent margin in Northern Virginia. Can that kind of be his springboard to become the Northern Virginia candidate who gets the most votes?
08:35.78
Sam Shirazi
Because I think, you know, realistically, if he's, you know, getting Decent amount of votes in Richmond and and maybe some of the African American community. i don't think that's going to be enough by itself. He'll need to do well in Northern Virginia and kind of lean in towards his years in the Democratic Party.
08:52.88
Sam Shirazi
And I think the challenge with that is that, know, a lot of the you know regular voters who may not be super tuned in to politics, I mean, they might not know his history in Virginia and he might just be the former Richmond mayor and, you know, they'll consider him among many of the other candidates.
09:11.66
Sam Shirazi
And so I do think part of the challenge in this primary is Generally, the voters are not super tuned in. I mean, most people are not living and breathing this stuff and they don't necessarily know the difference between all these candidates and they might have six candidates on a ballot and they have to make a decision.
09:27.70
Sam Shirazi
So I think it's going to be really hard for them to distinguish themselves, particularly when, you know. All the campaigns are trying to reach voters either through mailers or through TV ads or other ways of just reaching and the voters. But often it's just it's it's hard to get your message across.
09:45.12
Sam Shirazi
And you don't often have a lot of time to give your whole bio and all everything you've done. i mean, voters make decisions very quickly based on very limited information. They might just hear you're the former Richmond mayor or you're a state senator. I mean, that might be the entire basis of their decision. So I do think um that's a challenge that all the candidates are going to have as they are trying to figure out how to put together a winning formula.
10:06.34
Sam Shirazi
Okay, so next I want to talk about Prince William County School Board Chair, Barbara Lateef. So he's the main candidate from Northern Virginia, and he's definitely going to be leaning into the Northern Virginia thing. So
10:19.48
Sam Shirazi
Prince William County is the second biggest county in Virginia and has a huge population of over half a million people. So I think that's going to be a decent amount of votes that he's able to get there. And, you know, I think he's made the decision to be the candidate that is most vocally against the Fairfax Casino.
10:37.48
Sam Shirazi
And I think that's going to hopefully get, from his perspective, get him some votes in Fairfax County. Fairfax County is obviously the largest county in Virginia, lot of voters. And I think there's a scenario where if he's able to really break through and be the Northern Virginia candidate,
10:54.49
Sam Shirazi
and lean into that and really just drive up the margins in Northern Virginia and it did the other candidates just aren't able to get those numbers, then i think he's he's going to be able to put together the numbers to get there.
11:08.20
Sam Shirazi
And it's a little bit what I would say happened in 2021, where Sam Razul in the Democratic primary did pretty well in Western Virginia.
11:20.31
Sam Shirazi
where he where he's from in Roanoke, but Halayala did much better in in Northern Virginia. And obviously there's just so many more votes in Northern Virginia and up in a Democratic primary. And so she was able to win that primary pretty easily.
11:32.71
Sam Shirazi
And so we'll see if he's able to do that. I think i think the challenge he's going to have is, you know the all the candidates know that Northern Virginia is maybe the key to success. And so they're all going to be trying to get those votes in Northern Virginia.
11:44.27
Sam Shirazi
And there is a chance that the votes just get split among all the candidates in Northern Virginia. because they're all trying really hard to compete there. So I think that's his strategy is Northern Virginia 100%.
11:55.84
Sam Shirazi
And we'll see if that works for him. And then there is a former DOJ prosecutor, Victor Salgado. i think his strategy is partly going to be to focus on the Hispanic community in Virginia.
12:09.91
Sam Shirazi
which is pretty sizable. You don't always hear about it, but I think there there is a growing Hispanic community and in a Democratic primary that can give you, get you a good chunk of votes. I think the challenge he's going to have is, you know, building a base outside of that. And, you know, the Hispanic community will kind of get you a decent amount of votes in Virginia, but it's a little unclear if you can kind of get up to the numbers you need to win statewide just with that. And, you know, I think with all these candidates running, sometimes it's hard to break through So we'll see if he's able to to do that. And similar story with Bastani, who is a attorney and former labor official. So I think his strategy is to maybe lean into the pro labor side of things. He's very pro repealing right to work.
12:57.03
Sam Shirazi
And he also, I would say, probably ideologically is the most progressive of the candidates. And so he may be able to mobilize some of the progressive community to to to vote for him.
13:08.38
Sam Shirazi
I think he's going to have a challenge of, you know, that's, again, not going to be able to get you up to the numbers you need statewide. And again, there's so many people running and it's hard to break through, particularly if you are not an elected official and are coming at it from a little bit of a different angle So all that's to say is like there's a lot going on in the lieutenant governor's race. There's a lot of different ways people could win.
13:33.84
Sam Shirazi
i think it's still unclear who has the advantage. i could see it shaking out several ways. And I do think in some ways that actually will drive turnout because If it's a competitive race, it's, you know, people who pay attention know that this thing is not decided yet. And so all the candidates are going to be working to get out their supporters. So I do think the lieutenant governor's race is probably the most interesting race on primary night, given all the candidates, given that it's hard to pick the clear front front runner right now.
14:05.62
Sam Shirazi
I do think... you know, there are paths to victory for different candidates and we'll just have to wait and see how it all shakes out. I mean, I do think it's one of those races where I had to guess, you know, the winner is not going to be getting a whole lot of votes, the percentage of the vote.
14:23.62
Sam Shirazi
And, know, when when all the votes come in, it'll be interesting to see who ends up being on top and the coalitions that we're getting able to put together and what are... Certain parts of the state, who are they voting for? i think that'll all be really interesting. It'll be a really interesting map to look at day after the election just to see how things shook up in the lieutenant governor primary. So anyways, all that's to say is definitely pay attention. going to try to do my best to cover it, but I will, you know, not, it's just one of those races. It's very hard for me to kind of give a prediction about who's going to end up on top.
14:55.30
Sam Shirazi
All right. Now let's move on to the attorney general race, which is much simpler because there are only two people running. And I'll talk again a little bit about where each candidate will have some strengths and ah the path to victory that they need to get.
15:07.86
Sam Shirazi
And because there are only two candidates, the winner does need to get to 50%, 50.1% win the primary. and the The first candidate I want to talk about is former delegate Jay Jones.
15:19.41
Sam Shirazi
So he comes from the Norfolk area. So I'm assuming he's going to be doing pretty well in Hampton Roads. He was also endorsed by Congressman Bobby Scott. So I think he's going to, again, be doing well with the African-American community.
15:31.97
Sam Shirazi
And I think that's, again, going to give him a decent amount of votes just right off the bat from Norfolk and Hampton Roads. And the question, again, it's similar to LG primary, you know what is Northern Virginia going to look like? I think the strength that j Jay Jones has is that he doesn't need to win Northern Virginia outright. I think if he can keep Northern Virginia competitive and you know he doesn't need to get an outright win because the margins he's going to be getting from and Hampton Roads and the African-American community and Southside and Richmond area...
16:05.76
Sam Shirazi
that will get him in a lot a bunch of votes. And as long as it's not a huge blowout for Shannon Taylor in Northern Virginia, that should be able to get him enough votes. And so talking about Shannon Taylor's path, so she's the Commonwealth's attorney for Henrico County, which is in the Richmond suburbs.
16:22.03
Sam Shirazi
I do think she'll do relatively well you know in that area where she represents in the Richmond suburbs. I think Honestly, I don't think she's going to get as many votes as as Jones will and from Hampton Roads from Richmond because Richmond area has a decent amount of African American voters. And I do think ah Jones will be doing decent with the African American community in the Richmond area. So I could almost see Richmond being maybe almost a tie.
16:47.36
Sam Shirazi
And you know as I mentioned, Jones will be doing better in Hampton Roads. So that will really bump up his numbers. And it comes down to Northern Virginia. And I think Taylor's strategy would be similar to Hashmi to try to win women in Northern Virginia by really big margins.
17:03.19
Sam Shirazi
I think she would really need like a blowout win in Northern Virginia. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it just seems, you know, hard to get the numbers that she would need to.
17:14.34
Sam Shirazi
So for those reasons, I think Jones has the advantage just because he doesn't need to get a blowout victory in Northern Virginia the way Taylor does. And, you know, the thing with Northern Virginia is people tend to think about it as is all, you know,
17:31.74
Sam Shirazi
wealthier ah suburbs, but, you know, it's a pretty diverse area in its own way. And for example, Prince William County has a different, yeah decent African-American population. So I could see Jones getting a decent amount of votes there.
17:43.10
Sam Shirazi
And so if you think about the margins Taylor would need to get with women voters in Northern Virginia, it's pretty high. You know, conceivably it could happen, but it's not... something that is as easy.
17:56.09
Sam Shirazi
In other words, she doesn't have as easy a path to victory, I think, as Jones, where Jones just has to do well in Hampton Roads, do well with African American voters and keep Northern Virginia close. She'll really need to blow out margins in Northern Virginia.
18:09.97
Sam Shirazi
So we'll see we'll see if she's able to do that. I think Jones definitely has an easier path to victory. And I will say that And regardless of who ends up being on the ticket, i think there'll be some interesting dynamics for the general election.
18:24.15
Sam Shirazi
So i think I think there's a decent chance, given the odds, either in the AG race or the lieutenant governor's race, that... At least one of those nominees will be African-American. It's not i mean, it's conceivable they're not. But I think more likely than not, at least one of the LG or AG nominees will be African-American.
18:43.01
Sam Shirazi
i think that's something that can help the Democrats this year in Virginia, because. realistically at the top of the ticket. Abigail Spanberger, she has a lot of different strengths, and I think she's particularly strong with suburban women.
18:54.04
Sam Shirazi
But there's a little bit of a question mark about the African-American community. I think she's working to to win those voters over. Recently, State Senator Luis Lucas has endorsed Spanberger, so I think that'll help her.
19:05.63
Sam Shirazi
I think you know it it obviously helps if there's another person on the ticket who comes from a different part of Virginia and a different community.
19:15.73
Sam Shirazi
And I think that's also the regional dynamics of maybe having someone from Hampton Roads, which again may happen for a Lieutenant Governor or Attorney General.
19:24.56
Sam Shirazi
So I think that's another interesting dynamic to see how the tickets are split regionally. Okay. And the last thing I should just talk about is, you know, how independent of races in the general election will the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General races be? Because I think there's often talk about, oh, well, maybe Meares will be able to hang on even if the Republicans lose at the top of the ticket because he's an incumbent.
19:47.90
Sam Shirazi
I mean, certainly, I think if you're an incumbent, it helps and it doesn't... you know It should give you a little bit of advantage if you are an incumbent. you My personal theory is that ticket splitting in Virginia is really starting to to go away. And I think it's relatively unlikely that we're going to see a split ticket in terms being elected in November.
20:09.48
Sam Shirazi
I think if Spanberger is winning by at least a few points, then I think she'll just take the rest of the ticket with her. you know Conceivably, if it's a close race, you know either for lieutenant governor or for attorney general, Republicans might be able to win.
20:23.92
Sam Shirazi
the last four Virginia elections, the candidate that's won at the top of the ticket has been able to carry over the lieutenant governor and attorney general spots of the ticket.
20:35.29
Sam Shirazi
So I don't think there's going to be a lot of strategizing about who's the strongest candidate. My sense is most of the Democratic voters are going to just go for who who thinks who they think is going to be the best candidate.
20:46.29
Sam Shirazi
You know, just given the ticket splitting has really gone away in Virginia, it just seems really unlikely. And, you know even if for attorney general in 2021, so we had an incumbent Democratic attorney general with Mark Herring, and he didn't end up winning, even though he was the incumbent.
21:02.46
Sam Shirazi
And the top of the ticket wasn't that big of a victory for Yunkin. He only won by two points, but that was enough where he was able to carry the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General over the line. And I just think something similar would happen.
21:15.72
Sam Shirazi
the margin would have to be a little bit bigger than two points. I can't imagine a scenario where that wouldn't be enough for the rest of the ticket to win. So I do think there's a lot riding on the Lieutenant Governor Attorney General spots on the ticket.
21:28.49
Sam Shirazi
you know, conceivably they could help at the top of the ticket if you get a little bit more diversity ah ah in terms of geography and different communities in Virginia. But I ultimately don't think the those spots are in and of themselves going to be competitive. and And often you see in Virginia, there truly is a ticket. candidates run on shared kind of platforms and they campaigned together. and And so there is more ticket voting in Virginia. And I do think on the Republican side, it's going to be interesting to see if the GOP nominee, Winston Merle Sears, is going to be able to make up with the lieutenant governor nominee, John Reed, because obviously there's been some tension from when he became the nominee.
22:12.31
Sam Shirazi
And do they do joint campaign appearances? They haven't done them yet. And typically, there was one scheduled for when John Reed became the nominee, and that was canceled last minute. And so it's a little bit of an open question, are the Republicans going to have a unified ticket?
22:25.56
Sam Shirazi
I think the Democrats, given these candidates, regardless of who is nominated for the Senate Governor or Attorney General, I think they will be fairly united. So I do think there's just a lot of interesting things going on this year in Virginia.
22:36.60
Sam Shirazi
for the tickets specifically. And and obviously the June 17th primary is coming up soon. So I will but do my best to cover it all. It's going to be a lot of interesting dynamics and I'll try to do my best to keep everyone informed. But for now, this is Federal Fallout and I'll join you next time.

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Candidate Interview: Dr. Mark Downey
24 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.85
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode I will be interviewing Dr. Mark Downey. He is the Democratic candidate in the 69th House of Delegates District in the Yorktown area.
00:17.69
Sam Shirazi
This is a seat Democrats are targeting and was narrowly carried by President Trump by a little over one points in November. The current incumbent is Republican delegate Chad Green, and I would be happy to have him on or any other Republicans on in the future. But today we have Mark. Thank you for joining me.
00:36.80
Mark downey
Thank you for allowing me to come on your podcast. Thank you.
00:41.25
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, so don't you tell me about yourself and what made you want to run?
00:45.80
Mark downey
Yes, so I'm a pediatrician living in Williamsburg, grew up in this area, been here in the community since age two, went to all the local public schools in York County, went undergrad UVA, med school at MCB,
01:04.58
Mark downey
and after residency had an opportunity to come back and practice pediatrics here and in my hometown. Inherited the house I grew up with so grew up in, so I was able to raise my kids in the same house I grew up in, and really have gotten to know my community, taking care of kids, and now taking care of people that I took care of, taking care of their children.
01:29.98
Mark downey
So i think Being a pediatrician, being a medical doctor, that is really is what driven me to run again in this this cycle.
01:40.81
Mark downey
I ran twice in 2019 and 2021. But I think what really prompted me to get back into this election cycle is really wanting to be an advocate for quality health care for all Virginians, not just my patients, but their families, their grandparents, their relatives that are are being affected by all the changes that are coming from the federal level and making sure that Virginia maintains strong and quality access to healthcare.
02:12.67
Sam Shirazi
And I appreciate your perspective as ah ah as a doctor, because you know typically you think of politicians, a lot of lawyers, and you know you have people from that background or maybe small business owners, people who are have the means to do this. And and you know doctors are obviously usually pretty busy and don't always have time to run for office and or serve.
02:32.06
Sam Shirazi
you know What perspective do you think you bring in as a doctor that might be missing from other people who are currently serving in the House of Delegates?
02:41.95
Mark downey
Well, I think just like any field, it's it's good to have people with expertise in that field to provide perspective, provide you know good data, information on on what these policies, what these potential legislation may have an impact in in that particular field.
03:00.85
Mark downey
got off a candidate training with Planned Parenthood, and you know I was able to share a lot of information about you know, access to reproductive care, access to just health care in general for for all folks. And i think that's where my strength is. That's where I feel like I can contribute to the discussion and make sure that policies that are being proposed are are are really going to do what they intend to do and actually benefit the most people.
03:31.69
Sam Shirazi
And I wanted to ask you one question about kind health care in general, because the Republicans currently are trying to pass a bill and there's been a lot of talk about cuts to Medicaid. And can you kind of explain, you know, what Medicaid is, why it's important and and what could potentially happen if there are those cuts?
03:50.92
Mark downey
Yeah, Yeah, um great question. I mean, Medicaid is one of those very foundational safety nets that we have in our country that really primarily looks to help out those that are lower income or disabled or near the end of end of their life when they need elder care.
04:10.44
Mark downey
And it provides that critical safety net where a lot of folks prior to Medicaid being around didn't have access to care. So there was a great disparity and and basically rationing of healthcare where they weren't able to receive the same level care that folks that had yeah employee-based insurance and for Virginia, we were able to expand Medicaid, and Medicaid expansion in 2018, but it came with restrictions on it or a trigger that if the federal funding ever dropped below ah ah current level of 90%, that all those individuals that were added under Medicaid expansion would potentially lose lose their coverage.
04:56.20
Mark downey
So it's critically important as we look to see what the federal government is planning or trying to do, that we have a plan, a backup plan, or a way to protect those individuals that have health care so they don't find themselves without the ability to get the care that they need.
05:15.63
Sam Shirazi
Well, another thing I wanted to ask you about is ah other cuts the federal government and and also potentially the job cuts that have been happening with the federal government. you know as ah ah As I mentioned in other podcasts, that's typically viewed as more of a Northern Virginia story. But I do think down in your area, there there have been impacts.
05:35.49
Sam Shirazi
And i was wondering specifically about your district because you have two large military installations. There's york Yorktown Naval Station. and Fort Eustis.
05:45.39
Sam Shirazi
Have you heard anything or what are you hearing on the ground in terms of the impacts of the federal cuts on the military side?
05:53.68
Mark downey
Well, I think you hit it right on the head. This is a yeah an area that has a tremendous amount of folks that come here for the military, either in active duty as they rotate through, but then a lot of folks end up retiring after they finish their 20 years or 30 years in the military and they retire here and oftentimes take on civilian jobs.
06:17.08
Mark downey
And those are Those options are are not going to be there anymore as the cuts get made and they're not the hiring freezes that are being imposed on civilian contractors for the local military bases.
06:31.36
Mark downey
So that means we're going to lose out on on people that actually want to stay in this area and and really support the area. you know Growing up here, I'd have friends that I would see for two or three years and they would go away you know as their family got PCS to a different location, but then they a lot of them would end up coming back here and and finishing their high school and and settling in this area.
06:53.02
Mark downey
And I think that brings you know brings no opportunity for growth and sustaining our economy in this area. So all that is at risk.
07:02.92
Sam Shirazi
And I should ask a kind of a follow up. You know, I often find doctors when patients come in, they often tell them a lot of the problems they're having and things that they're experiencing.
07:15.04
Sam Shirazi
ah ah You as a doctor, you know, what are you seeing when your patients are coming in? Are they telling you things that maybe aren't covered in the news necessarily? or Or what are some of the things that people are telling you as they they come to visit your office?
07:29.26
Mark downey
Well, lately, it's been a lot of questions, concerns about how federal policy may be changing towards vaccinations and in general, you know, healthcare and education support for their kids.
07:47.33
Mark downey
Obviously, i deal with pediatrics and their families, but it's it's we're seeing more and more questions about Are we gonna continue to make sure that our kids get the vaccinations that they need and required and making sure that our community is safe?
08:05.45
Mark downey
I think that's becoming more front of mind to people, things you Prior to the election cycle, we didn't have to worry about as much. I had a new parent, very first visit, they asked, are we still going to be allowed to get our child vaccinated? I'm like, absolutely.
08:22.10
Mark downey
And I'm planning on running for house of delegates to make sure that Virginia stays a state that really follows the science and data on the effectiveness and safety of vaccines and encouraging folks to keep up to date.
08:35.36
Sam Shirazi
Well, that's interesting to have that perspective and being able to talk to your patients about those issues. I did want to ask, so you mentioned you previously ran for the House of Delegates and you came up short in those races. What did you learn running previously that you're going to try to apply this time and hopefully and for you from your perspective have a different outcome?
08:58.23
Mark downey
Well, i I do this, well, I did in the first two elections. I'm planning on doing it this election. I'd like to share with folks that as a pediatrician, I take care of all walks of life. I take care of families that I know support more Republican candidates, Democratic candidates, independents, low income, medium income, high income.
09:19.81
Mark downey
i treat every individual in front of me every patient, the same, regardless of their background, their income status. And I think that allowed me to overperform in the first first two times I ran because I've earned that trust from individuals and families that may not see me solely as a Democratic candidate, but they see me as their pediatrician that they've trusted with their children and their grandchildren.
09:45.33
Mark downey
and I heard a lot of people on the doors last few times I ran, like saying, I've never voted for a Democrat before, but you've taken care of my kids for the last 15 years.
09:56.48
Mark downey
And I know you and I trust you. And, you know, you have my vote. And I think we we plan on leaning into that again this year, this cycle. And I think people are really...
10:07.62
Mark downey
looking for that, people that are are genuinely wanting to get into office help them, help their families, help their loved ones. And I think that's that's a winning message message. It should be a winning message every election cycle.
10:21.41
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I think that's all helpful background and certainly gives some perspective on why doctors tend to be overperforming because people in the community know them and might like doctors more than they like lawyers who are typically running in elections.
10:35.23
Sam Shirazi
And you touched on this and in your previous answer, but you know I'd like to look at the different districts and this district slightly voted for Trump in November.
10:46.68
Sam Shirazi
But there is a part of the district over the York River in Gloucester, not a huge part of it, but about 10 percent of the district that's much redder. You talked about trying to win over some people. um know, what is your plan to try to convince people who vote who may have voted for President Trump in November vote for you this November?
11:05.100
Mark downey
Well, I think just like we need to compete in every district and ah across the Commonwealth, we need to you know make sure that we get our voice out and our message out to every precinct in our district, and including ones that traditionally haven't haven't favored the Democratic candidate.
11:25.34
Mark downey
But again, i have quite a few families and come across the river that seat that come to our practice. So I have families that I take care of over there as well.
11:35.45
Mark downey
So it's I don't plan on changing my message too much yeah over there, except letting them know that I am running. My opponent last time ran unopposed.
11:46.03
Mark downey
So let them know that there is an option out there if they're not happy with running. the current delegate and they not happy with what's happening at the state level or the federal level that there are, there's an option. And I, you know, I want to present myself as someone who is willing to listen, to understand their concerns and every district, every precinct is different.
12:08.24
Mark downey
And I understand that. And that's, I think ah ah my background as a physician allows me to yeah Take in information, answer questions, listen, and and find common ground. And I think that's what will win over voters, even in the reddest of precincts in my district.
12:25.69
Sam Shirazi
And I did want to ask a little bit about your district general. You know, tell me about the district. I think one thing I found interesting is politically it's it's kind of a 50-50 district. you know You know, why do you think that is? And and what but do you think people who aren't super familiar with that part of Virginia should know about your district?
12:46.31
Mark downey
Yes, actually, we have four separate counties and that are involved in cities in my in my district. I have two precincts in Gloucester County, two precincts in Newport News City, four in lower James City County, and 10 in York County.
13:02.86
Mark downey
And I think what makes it kind of competitive is that they're they are all different. But I think there is a common thread in that it tends to attract a lot of, it's more of a suburban area.
13:17.24
Mark downey
We get a lot of families that live here that work elsewhere, that work in Hampton, work in Newport News and Norfolk, also work up in Richmond. So I think we have a very highly educated, very engaged voting population in our precinct.
13:34.38
Mark downey
We have throughout Presidential elections, governor race, we have oftentimes the highest or some of the highest voter turnout for all of the Commonwealth.
13:46.60
Mark downey
And I think that speaks to the the the strength of our supporting committee, that we have a good established base, that we can reach out to feed people and make sure that each election cycle is emphasized and the importance of it.
14:02.20
Mark downey
And I think that allows us to really reach that you the people that we need to to get out to vote.
14:09.32
Sam Shirazi
Well, I will ask you one other question that's a little bit more fun because I visited your district recently and I actually really like that part of Virginia. I think it's really a beautiful part of Virginia and your district contains Yorktown and I believe it also contains Jamestown.
14:26.18
Sam Shirazi
and Busch Gardens, although I think technically Colonial Williamsburg is in the neighboring 71st District, but you can count it for that this area.
14:32.71
Mark downey
Correct.
14:35.12
Sam Shirazi
you know What's your favorite local attraction and and why do you think it's such a fun spot for people to come visit in terms of taking a vacation?
14:45.29
Mark downey
Well, growing up in York County, spent a lot of my youth along the York River, including Yorktown, but even along the parkway there, going going um going on walks on the beach, crabbing.
14:58.67
Mark downey
I have very fond memories of crabbing off of Yorktown Beach and collecting a bushel of crabs in two hours and going home and cooking them and picking them with my my parents and family.
15:12.53
Mark downey
So I think that image in my mind, that memory, is what really wanted me to come back to this area to allow my kids that experience it It has everything. It has access to the river. It has Columbia Williamsburg, Historic Jamestown, Yorktown.
15:33.08
Mark downey
you know Kids read about that in their kindergarten and elementary school classes, and then they can go and actually see and walk it and and be part of it. So I think that, to me, is one of the fun fondest memories that I have growing up here, and I want to preserve that and make sure that it is a great location for families to raise their kids and also for people to retire here. There's lots of adult education opportunities for the College Wayne Mary.
16:02.07
Mark downey
So I know a lot of people take advantage of that. It's just, it has something for everyone, including the thrill seekers at Busch Gardens and even Water Country. There's also Water Country here. So we have lots of, Great Wolf Lodge in Upper York County. So we have lots of attractions that can entertain people that are looking more for adrenaline.
16:20.10
Mark downey
adrenaline
16:22.43
Sam Shirazi
Well, I really appreciate you taking the time to talk to me about your campaign and also about your district. Last question, how can people find out more about your campaign?
16:30.74
Mark downey
Well, thanks again for having me on. And i ah ah look forward to reaching out to more and more voters. And one way that they can find out more about my campaign is going to my website at downeyforvirginia.com.
16:44.84
Mark downey
We have opportunities to learn more about my campaign and hopefully join our campaign and volunteer going forward in the election cycle.
16:54.15
Sam Shirazi
All right. Well, thank you so much again. i appreciate you taking the time to talk to me. And this has been Federal Fallout, and I'll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Episode 13: Virginia Polls, Early Voting Picks Up, and Elon Exits
24 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.70
Sam Shirazi
Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This episode, we will go over two new Virginia polls, talk about early voting picking up, and finally, we will talk about Elon Musk perhaps exiting the political stage.
00:17.57
Sam Shirazi
But first, I wanted to note the passing of Congressman Jerry Connolly. This is an immense loss for Northern Virginia and all of Virginia. And I know that he will be missed in Fairfax, which he represented for so long.
00:32.81
Sam Shirazi
Everyone knows how much he loved Fairfax and how hard he fought for it. I will always be grateful for his advocacy of the Silver Line, which brought Metro to Dulles Airport and led to the redevelopment of Tysons, Herndon, Reston, and all the way out to Loudoun.
00:49.57
Sam Shirazi
I think this will be an important part of his legacy, and I just wanted to make that note of his passing and send my best wishes to his family, friends, and his colleagues.
01:00.87
Sam Shirazi
Okay, now we will move on to the first Virginia polls we have gotten in a while. The first poll was from Roanoke College, and it had Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger at 43% of the vote, Republican nominee Winsome Earle Sears at 26% of the vote, and Undecided at 28%.
01:22.63
Sam Shirazi
And in terms of Trump's approval rating, it was 31 to 65 disapproving of President Trump's approval. And in terms of Yunkin, he had a 46 to 48 percent disapproval, which I believe this is the first poll I've seen, at least in a long time, where Governor Yunkin actually had a negative approval ratings.
01:42.91
Sam Shirazi
So I wanted to caveat a couple of things about this poll. One is that there's just a lot of undecideds. I mean, it's pretty rare to see a poll where you have the Democratic and Republican candidates listed that has that level of undecideds.
01:57.37
Sam Shirazi
I there probably are a decent amount of undecideds, just given that the election is still a few months away and people aren't really thinking about it. But I think if you put a D and an R next to someone's name, usually, at least in a state like Virginia,
02:09.12
Sam Shirazi
that'll get you up to at least 40% off the bat. And so the fact that there's 28% undecided is a little bit odd in this poll, but you know it shows that Spanberger definitely has maybe higher name ID and or she has higher support among her base in the Democratic Party.
02:27.36
Sam Shirazi
Maybe that's something that Lieutenant Governor Earle Sears needs to work on to get her numbers up. think at a minimum, even on the worst possible night for the Republicans, Winston Earle Sears is going to get at least 40% of the vote. So I just, I would kind of caveat some of these numbers.
02:44.20
Sam Shirazi
And I will say that I think, you know, in my personal opinion, I think this poll is a little bit too good to be true for Democrats. In terms of Trump's approval rating, like I think, you know, I certainly think he's he's negative in Virginia.
02:57.04
Sam Shirazi
I don't know if he's at 31% approval in Virginia. I mean, if you told me he's maybe at 35% or 40%, that seems a little bit more believable. I think 31% is really low, given that, you know, again, Virginia is not a super blue state. I think, you know, on a and any random night, the Republicans are going to get 40% of the vote.
03:16.62
Sam Shirazi
And so not every person that votes for the Republicans is always going to be supporting President Trump. But it's hard for me to believe that he's at 31% approval in Virginia. And then with Governor Youngkin, you know, this is the first poll that I've seen in a while that he's had negative approval ratings.
03:33.78
Sam Shirazi
I imagine his approval probably has come down from some of the highs that you saw earlier because of some of the things that have been going on with the federal fallout and the impact of cuts to the federal government.
03:45.27
Sam Shirazi
But at the same time, you know, it's Virginia governors usually, I mean this is a trend that's gone back, you know, 20 years or so, they almost always have positive approval for whatever reason, people like their Virginia governor, it doesn't matter if they're Democrat, doesn't matter if they're Republican, they almost always have positive approval for whatever reason.
04:02.90
Sam Shirazi
And it's possible that polarization is catching up to that. And now people are starting to maybe not like their governor if they feel like you know, the federal cuts are hitting Virginia. But overall, I would say like, this is certainly a good poll for the Democrats. Sometimes when the polls seem a little bit too good to be true, I tend to be a little bit cautious and take it with a grain of salt. But I think it's the couple things that are kind of indisputable right now is almost certainly Trump has a negative approval in Virginia.
04:32.12
Sam Shirazi
and I think most people would say that the The Democrats with Abigail Spanberger have a little bit of an edge right now in the governor's race. So I think you're kind of seeing that reflected in this poll. Maybe the exact numbers aren't exactly correct, but I think it's kind of in the ballpark of where I'm seeing things.
04:47.54
Sam Shirazi
Okay. And now there was another poll put out the same day. This one was from an organization called Virginia Free, which is, I would say, a more pro-business deregulation type organization. it was led by a former GOP delegate, Chris Saxman.
05:06.57
Sam Shirazi
They put out a poll from Harris X, which is a polling organization. And their poll showed little bit of a different thing than the Romano College poll. So this poll showed Abigail Spanberger at 52%, Winsome Earle Sears at 48%. It had the Trump approval as 44 to 56 disapproval, and it had the Youngkin numbers as 54 to 41% approved.
05:36.47
Sam Shirazi
I think the Trump approval with being negative 12 in Virginia, it's also possible. I think, you know, given his national numbers, you would think it would be a little bit lower than negative 12 approval. Youngkin plus 13 approval in Virginia probably sounds maybe closer to the ballpark.
05:52.01
Sam Shirazi
than the Roanoke College number. So long story short, I mean, you never want to just take one poll and kind of hyper fixate on the numbers in one poll. I think if you have the Roanoke College poll and then you have the Harris X poll and you kind of throw them together and you kind of get a sense of, okay, what's going on.
06:06.38
Sam Shirazi
And I think it both those polls, you know, even if you look at the Harris X poll, like the most favorable you would think for Trump would be negative 12 approval in Virginia. And that's just a very hard number for the Republicans to run on. So
06:19.07
Sam Shirazi
Frankly, I think negative 12 approval in Virginia is a good outcome type night for the Virginia GOP. It's very possible that Trump would have a lower approval in Virginia just given the impact of the federal cuts.
06:30.54
Sam Shirazi
And so if you're looking at that environment and you're looking at, you know, Spanberger being up by four, I mean, that's kind of in the ballpark. I mean, frankly, you know, this is just my personal guess right now.
06:41.80
Sam Shirazi
I think that's kind of the lower end of what the Democrats might be able to get. i think the upper end might be, I don't think Spanberger is going to be winning by the number in the Roanoke College poll, which is 17%. But I do think, you know, double digit, like 10 point lead is not out of the question.
06:59.57
Sam Shirazi
I don't know if that's the number right now, but by November, we might be getting to that point when all the voters tune in. And the campaign issues really start hitting. And so all that's to say is I think these polls are interesting. We haven't had a polls in a long time. I'm glad we got them.
07:15.42
Sam Shirazi
But I wouldn't overthink them. i think the the main takeaway is, you know, and if you ask observers on both sides, they'll say that they think the Democrats right now are up a little bit in Virginia.
07:28.05
Sam Shirazi
And that doesn't mean they're definitely going to win in November. A lot of time still left. But I do think, you know, you have to just kind of get it ah sense of where things are right now and, I think it's reasonable to assume Democrats have a little bit of an edge.
07:41.17
Sam Shirazi
We'll have to wait and see what happens in the summer. Typically in the summer, there's a little bit of a lull. And then after Labor Day, that's kind of the old adage, that's the beginning of the fall campaign. And early voting starts pretty quickly right after Labor Day.
07:54.53
Sam Shirazi
And so we'll have to get another pulse check at the end of summer to see where things are. I think this was helpful to get it at this time the year. I'm sure we'll get some more polls. I'll obviously talk about those polls. And I don't always want to spend all this time talking about polls, but I do think it's important because we haven't gotten them in a while.
08:12.48
Sam Shirazi
think they both roughly show the same thing. Again, not getting hyper fixated on the numbers, but I think both polls show that Trump's approval is negative in Virginia. And I think the political reality is, is if Trump has a negative approval, and if it's hitting double digit negative approval, that means the Democrats are almost certainly going to have an edge in the governor's race right now. And, you know, the exact margin of the governor's race.
08:36.04
Sam Shirazi
matters for down ballot for lieutenant governor, attorney general, House of delegates. So I'm not saying, you know, we'll need more precise information down the line with some more polls when we get closer to the election day to get a sense of where things are going.
08:49.41
Sam Shirazi
But at least at the top of the ticket, think most people are anticipating that the Democrats have a little bit of an edge right now. And we'll just have to wait and see where things shape up as the summer goes on.
09:00.79
Sam Shirazi
All right. Now let's move on to early voting, which is definitely picking up steam. It's hard to believe. We basically had like three weeks of early voting already. And we have more early voting all the way up to the June 17th primary.
09:13.48
Sam Shirazi
The first half of early voting, which we've seen so far, I would say primarily is from the permanent absentee list. So that's a lot of mail ballots coming in. There have been a trickle of in-person early votes, but definitely the bulk of the early vote right now is by mail. So I would say by the time this podcast is released, there's probably going to be almost 75,000 ballots either cast or being sent in through the mail.
09:38.29
Sam Shirazi
And you know the vast majority of that, more than two-thirds of that, are going to be mail votes that have come through the permanent absentee list. And I know I talk about the permanent absentee list a lot, but I just wanted to kind of show you how much it's changed Virginia voting patterns.
09:51.82
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, how many votes are just coming in through the permanent permanent absentee list? I mean, we've already got tens of thousands of votes in the permanent absentee list. And, you know, it's just skyrocketed the number of early votes that we see, particularly early in the process. So I will say, as we get closer to election day or primary day,
10:11.66
Sam Shirazi
There'll be a lot more in-person votes. The mail but ballots will start to slow down because a lot of them, people have already filled it out and sent it in. So I do expect the in-person early vote to really pick up. It's going to pick up a lot when there's two Saturdays of early voting.
10:25.31
Sam Shirazi
That means people are going to be able to go during the weekend when maybe they don't have to work. And so I think those two Saturdays will see a lot more early voting. And I'd be curious where the final early voting number ends. I mean, at this point, it's hard to predict, but I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 150,000 just in the early vote.
10:42.24
Sam Shirazi
And again, a bulk a lot of that is going to come from the permanent absentee list. And that's why we're seeing so much early vote right now in Virginia. And what all this early voting is doing is just turning it. It's really ratcheting up all the turnout in Virginia overall. And I'll talk about a few elections to give you some context. So in 2013, there was a Democratic primary.
11:03.32
Sam Shirazi
for lieutenant governor and attorney general, but there was no governor primary. And that's very similar to what happened right now in Virginia. But in that election, there were just 145,000 total votes in the Democratic primary in 2013.
11:16.44
Sam Shirazi
And remember, I said this year, just in the early vote in Virginia, we're going to get probably close to that, if not more than that. So it just shows you what changes in early voting And also engagement can do when in 2013 we had 145,000 total votes.
11:33.02
Sam Shirazi
And this year in Virginia, we're probably going to have roughly that number in just the early voting. And then obviously we're going to bunch of election day votes as well. So I think and we'll talk about a couple other elections to show you why the turnout has gone up so much in Virginia.
11:47.48
Sam Shirazi
All right. I will talk about the 2017 Democratic primary for governor. And there was also lieutenant governor primary that year. And that year, there was a lot of turnout in Virginia. There was almost 545,000 votes in 2017.
12:04.13
Sam Shirazi
Now, obviously, a governor's race is going to bump up the numbers a lot compared to a lieutenant governor's race. But I also think a lot of that was from the increased engagement that we saw after the 2016 election. And I do think in a lot of these primaries, there's kind of a time period where before the Trump era, where there were some people who voted, but not a whole lot. And then the Trump era just really ratcheted up engagement among Democrats and Republicans.
12:30.97
Sam Shirazi
And so we saw in 2017, even before all the changes to early voting, that there was 545,000 early votes in Virginia. So we went from hundred forty five thousand In 2013, with just the lieutenant governor's race, 2016, Donald Trump's elected.
12:48.07
Sam Shirazi
And that's just four years. So really a huge explosion, over three times the number of people voting from 2013 to 2017 because of the increased engagement that Donald Trump brought into the process.
12:59.99
Sam Shirazi
All right, now let's fast forward to 2021. And remember, in 2021, it was a lot easier to early vote because the Democrats had removed the need to have an excuse to early vote.
13:11.32
Sam Shirazi
And so it was much easier to early vote. The permanent absentee list hadn't been up and running yet, but still, it was a lot easier to early vote in 2021 than was 2017. And yet, in 2021, was only about 495,000 votes in the Democratic primaries.
13:24.07
Sam Shirazi
And if you think about it, that's a drop from 2017 from where we had almost 545,000 votes in the Democratic primary to 495,000. And, you know, I think at the time that should have been a little bit of a red flag because early voting was easier.
13:44.40
Sam Shirazi
So you would think there would be even more people turning out for a governor primary in 2021 compared to However, obviously, 2020, Joe Biden was elected president. And so we didn't have the same level of maybe and engagement or enthusiasm among Democrats in 2021.
14:00.91
Sam Shirazi
And so maybe the numbers in the primary were a little bit of a preview of what happened in November of 2021 when the Democrats lost the governor's race. And if you think about what happened in 2017, the Democrats got a big win in the governor's race because obviously the people who came out in the primary, they were engaged. They kept voting in the in the general election.
14:20.67
Sam Shirazi
And in 2021, we just had a different environment. Democrats were not as fired up, and we saw that eventual outcome in November. So I give you all those numbers to kind of think about 2025 and where we are.
14:33.78
Sam Shirazi
So I'm guessing we're going to get at least 150,000 roughly early votes in Virginia. And typically the rule in Virginia is that a third of the votes come early, and then two-thirds of them come during the actual election day.
14:49.97
Sam Shirazi
I think this year, probably there's going to be a little bit more on the early voting side just because of the permanent absentee list. So the permit absentee list is like bumping up turnout because some people who probably wouldn't have voted in the primary But because they got that a mail ballot in the mail, they realized there was a primary, they started to vote. So the permanent absentee list definitely starts bumping up the turnout. So I think we're going to have a little bit more early vote this year.
15:12.74
Sam Shirazi
But I do think we're going to hit roughly 400,000 total votes this year in Virginia for the Democratic primary. I think on a good night, it can be more than that. And I'm going to be really curious to see if we're going to be able to hit the 2021 number which I think is probably unrealistic. So 2021, remember, there was almost 495,000 votes.
15:34.36
Sam Shirazi
That was a governor primary. So obviously, governor primary, a lot more people are going to pay attention. There's more money in governor pra campaigns. You had more people competing in the governor race. So I think it's unlikely that we're going to hit 495,000 total votes this year in Virginia just with the lieutenant governor's and attorney general's race. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility, but I'm thinking more somewhere around 400,000, you know, and and on a good night, it can be more than that.
16:03.90
Sam Shirazi
But it is important to just kind of think that through. So I think if the if the Democrats get around 400,000 votes in the Democratic primary, I think that's still a very solid number, especially considering the 2013 number.
16:15.88
Sam Shirazi
And given that, you know, realistically, yeah there's not a governor primary. And so it's going to be pretty engaged people who end up voting. So I think getting up to 400,000 is a pretty strong number for the Democratic primary.
16:29.86
Sam Shirazi
We'll see what happens. and And I should say there there are there is also some early voting in the Republican primary. You really can't use it to compare it to the Democratic primary. And the numbers are much less.
16:40.98
Sam Shirazi
And the the numbers on the Republican side generally for the primary are going to be a lot less because realistically, they only have House of Delegates primaries in a handful of districts. And there are some local districts Republican primaries for local offices.
16:55.83
Sam Shirazi
So there's just no really we really way to compare the Democratic and Republican primaries. Some years where they both have governor primaries, it's kind of interesting. You see how many Democrats voted, you see how many Republicans voted, but it's just not possible to do that this year because it really is such an apples to oranges comparison.
17:11.42
Sam Shirazi
And I guess the last thing I should make a point I should make on this this area is that you hear a lot about the importance of primaries, and particularly in 2026, we might see more primaries on the Democratic side and incumbents facing primaries.
17:25.14
Sam Shirazi
and think there's a big debate about are primaries good or bad? you know, one school of thought I would say is more kind of the quote unquote establishment school of thought is that primaries, they take money away from the general election.
17:37.64
Sam Shirazi
And then sometimes because, you know, the people coming out in the primaries are are the most progressive people generally, because they're the ones who are pretty committed Democrats, it causes the candidates to take more left wing positions that will generally be not as popular in the general election. And so you kind of It leads to candidates being less popular in the long run because um have to both spend money on the primary and then they have to take these positions, which might hurt them in the general election.
18:05.54
Sam Shirazi
Now, that's one school of thought. I think the other possibility or the other school of thought is actually primaries are good because. The candidate has to test themselves first in the primary, has to appeal to voters in a primary, win that election, and it gets more people engaged because both candidates are bringing in their people and usually, or there could be multiple candidates running, and usually that engages different parts of the base.
18:26.91
Sam Shirazi
And it's not just the same people who coming out in these elections. And then the the candidate that goes into the general election is much stronger because they've already gone through that process and there's more people engaged in the election.
18:40.66
Sam Shirazi
And I think there's examples of both. So if you you think about 2017, you had a primary for the governor's race on the Democratic side. There was Tom Perriolo, who was challenging Ralph Northam in that primary, and Ralph Northam ended up winning.
18:54.01
Sam Shirazi
I think that was a pretty clean primary between Perriolo being a little bit more progressive, Northam being a little bit more establishment. Both sides really got engaged. Both sides brought out their voters.
19:04.92
Sam Shirazi
Northam won that primary. And I think that kept people engaged in the process. And obviously Northam got a big win in November. So I think that's the example of a primary where it actually was a net positive. I think Northam probably came out of that primary stronger because he had to compete for those votes. And he and after the primary, you you know the progressives that were fired up by Tom Perriello, they kind of continued with the Democrats and they were able to win in November of 2017 with a big victory.
19:30.81
Sam Shirazi
You could talk about 2021 maybe being a little bit of a different example on the Democratic democratic side where you had Terry McAuliffe who was being challenged by three by four different people and there was a sense that it was a bit of a coronation and People got a little bit jaded by the process and and it might have hurt McAuliffe a little bit in the general election.
19:52.43
Sam Shirazi
Now, I don't know if it ultimately was that big of a deal. and And I don't think that's why he lost the election. But it just shows you that primaries can be tricky. Obviously, this year for governor, we don't have a primary for either candidate. So neither of them are going to have a primary. It's an open question about whether, you know, the fact that Democrats have a primary for lieutenant governor, attorney general.
20:41.61
Sam Shirazi
ah
20:42.03
Sam Shirazi
And I think generally that points to Democrats being probably more engaged after the election of Donald Trump. And so we'll just have to wait and see what the final numbers are going look like. Obviously, after the primary, I'll do kind of more of a breakdown once I have the final numbers and kind of give a better sense of what the Democratic primary numbers might mean for November.
21:02.29
Sam Shirazi
All right. One more topic before I sign off for this podcast, and that's about Elon Musk. So this week, Elon Musk said, quote, I think in terms of political spending, I'm going to do a lot less in the future.
21:15.95
Sam Shirazi
And he added, i think I've done enough. So just for some context, obviously, what Elon Musk got really involved in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election in April. He spent a lot of money. He went on the campaign trail.
21:29.33
Sam Shirazi
And that didn't exactly work out because Democrats were able to win that Supreme Court race by 10 percent. And I think after that, there was a general sense that Elon Musk was going to be a liability for group Republicans if he was able to continue campaigning in that role.
21:44.16
Sam Shirazi
And I think this news overall, I think the Virginia GOP is probably breathing a sigh of relief. While I'm sure you know they wouldn't necessarily mind having more money, I don't think they would have wanted the money directly from Elon Musk with all the strings attached and also the Democrats being able to run on that issue and basically portray the Republicans as being the party of Elon Musk.
22:07.73
Sam Shirazi
I do think there was a world where if Elon Musk kind of came in like he did in Wisconsin, it was not going to end well for the Virginia GOP.
22:15.03
Sam Shirazi
So overall, I think, and it was an open question. I mean, you know, I think if the Wisconsin Supreme Court race had gone a different way, i think it was very possible that Elon Musk would continue getting involved in these campaigns.
22:26.98
Sam Shirazi
And so I think one question we had for November is a little bit answered. I don't think Elon Musk is going to be directly on the campaign trail like he was in Wisconsin. I think the bigger question is, will Elon Musk and or people associated with him kind of try to find a way to give money to the Republicans in Virginia or set up PACs so that they can spend money on their own in Virginia?
22:48.53
Sam Shirazi
It's hard to tell. I mean, I think that money would eventually appear somewhere in the campaign records. And the thing with Virginia is there's unlimited campaign contributions directly to the campaigns, but you have to disclose that. And while, you know, if you gave a thousand dollars or $2,000 here and there, you know, it's not really going to raise anyone's eyebrows, but if you start seeing checks that are half a million, a million dollars, eventually people are going to figure out, okay, there's money coming from somewhere and they're to try to track it down. So,
23:16.55
Sam Shirazi
While I think it's possible that money still kind of gets the Republicans um from Elon Musk and or his supporters, I do think it's it's somewhat hot hard to hide it. I mean, it's not impossible, but you just have to kind of see what happens as we head into the November election.
23:34.70
Sam Shirazi
And I think for Democrats, I mean, there's still very much going to be running against Elon Musk and or Doge. I think the issue is not going away. Obviously, the cuts the federal the cuts to workers and the the federal spending that's been cut, I mean, that is not going to go away. And regardless of Elon Musk who's on the campaign trail.
23:52.94
Sam Shirazi
or not, Democrats are going to be talking about that issue. And, you know, I think we've seen a little bit of a shift in Democratic mis messaging. They still mention Elon Musk. I think he's still important. But given that he's taken a step back and he's not as public as he was certainly during the first couple months of the Trump administration, I think we'll see him a little bit less even in the Democratic ads. I think the focus will be more on Trump more on the cuts and maybe trying to link that with Trump. And obviously they're going to try to link it with, to governor Youngkin and Lieutenant governor went to Earle Sears.
24:26.12
Sam Shirazi
I think with Elon Musk, everyone kind of knew that was not going to go well for the Virginia GOP. They knew that the Democrats knew that. And I think that's part of the reason Elon Musk has stepped back because I think I didn't hear any Virginia Republicans screaming, I really hope Elon Musk comes campaigns in my district. I think they all kind of knew that was not going to end well for them.
24:46.52
Sam Shirazi
I think the big question mark is Donald Trump, because the Republican Party right now is basically Trump's party.
24:53.51
Sam Shirazi
And the Republican candidates generally are not going to be able to run away from Donald Trump because they they fall in this trap where if they run away from Donald Trump, I mean, there, there's a whole MAGA base that's going to get upset with them and they're going to try to keep them in line and try to keep the Republican candidates this year in Virginia from back. They're going try to make sure that they are backing Donald Trump.
25:15.02
Sam Shirazi
Obviously the Democrats on the other side are going to have the exact opposite strategy where they're going to say, yes, these people are totally with Trump and, and the Republicans in Virginia are totally but back backing Trump.
25:27.45
Sam Shirazi
And, The Republicans running in Virginia aren't going to deny that because they can't do that. And so I do think the Republicans are in a tough place in Virginia with Donald Trump, because realistically, Donald Trump, I mean, almost certainly is going to have a negative approval rating in Virginia. I mean, it's hard for me to imagine a scenario where by November, Trump's approval is going to be positive in Virginia.
25:47.46
Sam Shirazi
And if you think about it. you know November 2024, Donald Trump was probably at his height of popularity in Virginia, and he's still lost by 6%. And what has happened since November 2024, there have been cuts to the federal government. There's been federal employees let go. i mean, I just can't imagine a scenario where he's going to be more popular than he was in November 2024 in Virginia.
26:10.71
Sam Shirazi
I'm not saying that Donald Trump has no base of support in Virginia. He certainly... Still very popular in parts of Southwest Virginia and Shenandoah Valley and Southside Virginia. i mean, there are clearly a lot of people in Virginia who do support Donald Trump, but that almost creates this problem for the Virginia GOP because they need those Trump supporters to come out and vote for the Republicans.
26:31.22
Sam Shirazi
But they also probably need people who don't approve of Donald Trump to vote for the Republicans this year in Virginia. And that's a very hard line to walk. And if you think about 2021, Governor Youngkin was able to walk that line because he was able to not alienate the Trump supporters, but he was able to win enough independent and moderate voters in the suburbs where he was able to win the election.
26:53.18
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, Donald Trump was not president in 2021. We had joe biden There's a lot of different factors in play. i think this year with Donald Trump in the White House, it's just going to be very difficult for the Virginia GOP to keep their arms distanced from Trump, but then to try to appeal to the moderate voters because you risk alienating the Trump people if you are too critical or you're you're not close enough to Donald Trump if you're a Republican this year in Virginia.
27:21.51
Sam Shirazi
And we saw a little bit of this recently where I think there were some articles that came out about Governor Winslow Merrill Sears and one of them was about some photos that she had on her campaign website.
27:33.20
Sam Shirazi
Now they were some pretty bland stock photos that she got and she put on her website. I think one of them, they forgot to remove the serial number of the photo or something like that, which you know in the grand scheme of things is pretty minor, but it's not a great look if you're a campaign.
27:49.10
Sam Shirazi
But what I thought was really interesting was that Chris LaSavita, who was a senior advisor to President Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign, he said that he said that this showed that the winsome Earl Sears campaign was being run by amateurs. And so, you know, he didn't have to say that. Obviously there's a reason he said that. I think maybe it was to send kind of a warning shot to say like, Hey, you guys got to step up your game.
28:18.18
Sam Shirazi
It's also possible. He's trying to show that, um know, he, Trump world may not be super happy with Winston Merle Sears because, there were times in the past where she has kind of distanced herself from Trump.
28:29.40
Sam Shirazi
Currently, she's not necessarily running away from Trump, but she isn't necessarily also talking about him every day. And so I think she's in a tough spot because she she knows that Either way, it's kind of a no-win proposition. If she gets too close to Trump, then the Democrats are going to use that and slam her for being too close to Trump.
28:48.74
Sam Shirazi
I think if she starts dissing herself too much from Trump, then MAGA world is going to get upset. And so all that's to say is like Elon Musk may be out of the picture for now. And maybe the Virginia GOP don't have to worry too much about Elon Musk. But I do think there's this unresolved question about what they do with Donald Trump.
29:06.43
Sam Shirazi
And does Donald Trump come to campaign in Virginia? you know, there's been two examples of that kind of backfiring in Virginia history. So in 2005, very late in the campaign,
29:17.12
Sam Shirazi
George W. Bush came to campaign in Virginia for the Republican nominee for governor. And the general consensus is that that didn't really help the Republicans. And if anything, that helped Tim Kaine win in 2005. And in 2021, we saw a few instances where President Biden came in to campaign for Terry McAuliffe.
29:34.82
Sam Shirazi
And the Republicans were really able to use that against McAuliffe and to help fire up their own base. Now, do I think those two visits by themselves led to the losses those years? No. But I do think it's going to be interesting. does President Trump hold campaign rallies in Virginia.
29:50.28
Sam Shirazi
Maybe he holds them in rural areas that might help drive the turnout for the Republicans, but you got to think that's going that might have hurt the Republicans in other parts of Virginia where Donald Trump's less popular. So I think it's going to be really interesting. I started off this podcast. My first episode was called the Doge election question mark.
30:09.83
Sam Shirazi
I think Doge is very much still going to be a part of this election. I think Elon Musk might be taking backseat in the election a little bit more than he was maybe in the beginning of the year, but certainly he's not out of the picture either.
30:23.29
Sam Shirazi
And I think Donald Trump's going to be the big question mark heading into the November campaign. So all that's to say is there's a lot going on in Virginia. I'm going to cover it all. I think we're getting close to the primary, which will be really interesting. And then once the primary is over, we're going to be heading into the general election. So a lot of stuff going on in Virginia. I hope if you enjoy this podcast,
30:41.88
Sam Shirazi
Please do share it. You know, I think it's it's always good for people to know about what's going on in Virginia. If you know people who are interested in politics, feel free to mention the podcast to them and share it with them.
30:53.24
Sam Shirazi
If you feel like writing a review and giving it positive reviews, feel free to do that. I think that definitely helps people know about the podcast. So I'm going to keep trying to do this all the way through the election, and I hope you will continue to stay with me. And for now, that is Federal Fallout, and I will join you next week.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Episode: Checking In on the Federal Fallout
17 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.46
Sam Shirazi
Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This episode, I will be checking in on the Federal Fallout because obviously the premise of this show has been that what's been going on in Washington, D.C is going to affect the Virginia elections this year. And I've been covering other topics and they're all very interesting, but I haven't really spent a whole lot on the federal fallout issue in a while. And I wanted to check in because there were two pieces of interesting news that I wanted to talk about.
00:41.59
Sam Shirazi
So at the University of Virginia, they have something called the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. And every once in a while, they will put out different studies and different forecasts.
00:52.60
Sam Shirazi
And so recently they put out a forecast about the job losses in Virginia this year. And according to this forecast, they say that about 32,000 net jobs will be lost in Virginia this year.
01:05.07
Sam Shirazi
That means Virginia won't be creating jobs. That means that 32,000 jobs will be lost. And obviously, main cause of that is the federal fallout in in regards to what's going on with all the federal cuts.
01:16.45
Sam Shirazi
Now, I should say this is a forecast. Things can change. I don't want to take it 100% certain Virginia is going to be losing jobs. It's possible that Virginia gains jobs this year, forecast change. So you know I would take the specific number with a little bit of grain of salt. But I think the broader point is still there that Virginia is seeing job losses, both directly from people getting fired, but also from businesses that are suffering, specifically government contractors. So a lot of government contractors, they technically aren't employees of the federal government.
01:45.36
Sam Shirazi
But they are making money off the federal government through these contracts. And so there have been a lot of contracts that have been cut. And so obviously, if you're a contractor, your contract's been cut. You can't play it pay your employees. You have to let your employees go.
01:56.81
Sam Shirazi
So that's another source of job losses. And I think the other thing I should mention... which I don't think is talked about a lot in the news, is the fact that a lot of federal employees are leaving under either early retirement or through incentives to leave the federal government, such as the original fork in the road that Doge offered where people would be able to leave the federal government, still get paid until September 30th while they were not working.
02:25.26
Sam Shirazi
And a lot of times those people who've left through these voluntary early separations are not necessarily counted as technically being fired. They aren't necessarily eligible for unemployment. So you may not see them in the official statistics, but they are still very much being affected by what's going on in the federal government.
02:45.04
Sam Shirazi
And I guess the the one other thing I should mention along these lines is Obviously, Northern Virginia has a lot of federal employees who work in D.C. who commute into D.C. And so while they may not have been technically jobs located within Virginia, if someone either voluntarily leaves or they are being fired from their job in Washington, D.C., that may be reflected in the Washington, D.C. employment numbers.
03:08.18
Sam Shirazi
But it's going to affect Virginia because obviously people who come come back to Virginia after they work in D.C. They're bringing most of their money and most of their paycheck back to Virginia.
03:18.81
Sam Shirazi
And so we're seeing a lot of these effects from the federal fallout about what's going on in D.C. And The Washington Post recently did a poll of the D.C. area, but they had specific questions about Northern Virginia. So they asked people in Northern Virginia,
03:34.19
Sam Shirazi
About the federal cuts and only 25% of people in Northern Virginia approved of them and 68% disapproved. And then they asked people about whether the federal cuts will help or hurt the DC area economy.
03:47.93
Sam Shirazi
76% said it would hurt the D.C. area economy, while only 12% said it would help the D.C. area economy. Now, obviously, Northern Virginia is known for being a blue area, and obviously, Northern Virginia is very impacted by the cuts in the federal government.
03:59.97
Sam Shirazi
So these numbers are not super surprising, and that's about what you expect to see. And I think some Virginia Republicans, their response would be, well, what do you expect? It's Northern Virginia. Of course, they're not going to like the just the cuts to the federal government.
04:12.74
Sam Shirazi
And these people aren't going to vote for the Republicans anyways. I mean, I think there's certainly some truth in that. I think the problem for the Republicans is they need some people in Northern Virginia to vote for them. And if you look at 2021, part of the secrets to the success of Glenn Youngkin was that he was able to keep the margins in Northern Virginia, particularly the outer suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William, somewhat competitive.
04:36.51
Sam Shirazi
And he wasn't totally blown away in Northern Virginia. And so while he didn't win Northern Virginia, the margins were close enough where combined with some good turnout in the rest of the state, he was able to win in 2021. And he really improved on President Trump's 2020 performance in Virginia. And that's part of the reason why he was able to win.
04:54.76
Sam Shirazi
And so if you think about what happened in 2024, former Vice President Harris was able to win win Virginia by about six points.
05:02.91
Sam Shirazi
So if you think about a Republican this year in Virginia, they have to do better than what President Trump did in 2024, because obviously President Trump didn't win Virginia in 2024.
05:11.82
Sam Shirazi
And so when you look at those dynamics, I mean, i think it's it's getting tricky for the Virginia GOP because I don't know exactly what the plan is in terms of trying to win Northern Virginia voters over or at least not lose as many of them as President Trump did in 2024.
05:30.69
Sam Shirazi
And I guess the other thing I should mention is in the Northern Virginia area, there are four House seats in the House of Delegates that could be competitive this year. So that's House District 22 in middle Prince William County.
05:43.94
Sam Shirazi
There's House District 30 in western Loudoun County. There's House District 64 that is in middle stafford and there is house district 66 which is in spotsylvania county for the most part and all four of those districts are currently held by the republicans the democrats are targeting those four seats and those are basically the last four seats in Northern Virginia that the republicans have been able to hold on to and you know i think traditionally those have been republican districts.
06:13.28
Sam Shirazi
There's an open question about whether some of those people in those districts who have voted for Republicans in the past may be open to voting for Democrats this time, either because they've been directly impacted by what's going on in the federal government or they know people who've been impacted, or even if they aren't really connected the federal government, maybe their businesses have or the place they work has seen a slowdown because of what's going on with the federal government.
06:34.65
Sam Shirazi
And if you think about what happened in 2017 in Virginia, so there were a lot of Republican seats, surprisingly, in places like Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, that had been Republican for a long time. And everyone just assumed, well, yeah, these are kind of traditional Republican seats.
06:49.27
Sam Shirazi
And the Democrats were able to flip some of those seats really easily in some cases because of the backlash to the first Trump administration. And by the end of the Trump administration, there were no Republicans left in Fairfax County at the House of Delegates or state Senate level.
07:06.59
Sam Shirazi
And I think there's a possibility if there's a lot of federal fallout in Northern Virginia that the same thing could happen with these last seats in Prince William, Loudoun and Stafford.
07:17.56
Sam Shirazi
And the other thing I should mention, I mean, I think a lot of the federal fallout has directly hit the civilian side of things with different agencies with different agencies. For example, we've seen a lot about USAID and the Department of Education and Health and Human Services. So those have been the the agencies most directly impacted and where we've seen a lot of news about the changes to those agencies.
07:42.24
Sam Shirazi
But I also think it's an interesting thing to see what happens if, for example, some of the the workers who are in and around military bases, are they seeing the federal fallout? Are they feeling differently about what's going on in D.C.?
07:55.89
Sam Shirazi
And if that's the case, I mean, that affects a lot of people. So there are military bases in the Richmond area and certainly in Hampton Roads. There's a lot of military bases. And I'm not going to go through every single district, but I mean, there are a lot of districts where the Republicans are trying to hold on.
08:09.22
Sam Shirazi
to seats where potentially the changes and the impacts of the federal government could make a difference in November. So again, i think the conventional wisdom is that this is going to help Democrats. Democrats are certainly running on this issue. They are talking about how they are focused on helping Virginia and wanting to help the federal workers who are been losing their jobs.
08:29.86
Sam Shirazi
And they they're attacking the Republicans for not doing that and for basically backing what President Trump is doing. And so, you know, the conventionalism is you would think that would play pretty well, at least in Northern Virginia, if not in other parts of Virginia.
08:42.66
Sam Shirazi
And I did want to step back and kind of maybe Think about that. And is there a scenario where maybe the federal fallout will not be that big? I mean, I think the Republican story or plan is that, well, yeah, there's these impacts to the federal government. Yeah, Virginia is kind of dependent on federal jobs and federal spending.
09:02.86
Sam Shirazi
But again, those people mainly vote for the Democrats anyways. And there's a lot of different parts of Virginia and maybe Southwest Virginia or the Shenandoah Valley or Southside Virginia. I mean, those people are much more supportive of what President Trump is doing.
09:15.83
Sam Shirazi
And if you know they get really fired up because they support President Trump and his agenda and they come out in huge numbers, then the it doesn't really matter what's going on in these other parts of Virginia because the the Republicans are still going to be able to win this year.
09:29.60
Sam Shirazi
I mean, I think the the problem with that thinking and the problem for the Republicans is that those areas have gotten close to maxing out. So maxing out is when you've kind of hit your peak in terms of the votes you can get out of those counties.
09:44.97
Sam Shirazi
And so if you think about Southwest Virginia, there are parts of Southwest Virginia where the Republicans are getting 80 plus percent of the vote. And I mean, at some point, there's really not much else you can get out of those places.
09:55.92
Sam Shirazi
Whereas think part of the reason President Trump did better in 2024 than he did in 2020 is because he really did do better in Northern Virginia to a certain extent. And particularly among, let's say, people from a diverse background, whether it's the Asian community or it's the Hispanic community, I think President Trump in 2024 did a little bit better than what people were expecting. I think the impact was a little less in Virginia as compared to other states. But certainly, I think, know, if you think about 2020, President Trump lost Virginia by 10 points, whereas in 2024, he only lost it by six points.
10:30.50
Sam Shirazi
So that was about a four-point swing towards the Republicans in 2024. And a lot of that was in Northern Virginia and you know, if that gets reversed, there's not a lot of the Republicans can do in terms of driving up the turnout and the margins in rural areas where they think that the President Trump's approval rating and President Trump's plans are more popular among voters.
10:55.86
Sam Shirazi
Now, the other possibility that I think I've mentioned is that DOGE, which kind of wraps up his work, the cuts of the federal government are finalized and everyone kind of moves on. And yeah, some people lost their jobs, but for the most part, the economy in Virginia stabilizes because they're able to find other jobs and everything kind of returns back to normal.
11:15.56
Sam Shirazi
I think that's, that's certainly going to happen probably to a certain extent. I think the challenge with that position or that view is that the reality is that, you know Even the federal workers that stay, I mean, they've gone through a lot in terms of having to deal with Doge and questions about whether they were going to get fired. And and so that that stays with you. And I just don't know if by November there's enough time where they'll just kind of say, yeah, I'm okay. I kept my job, so I'm not going to worry about this anymore.
11:44.32
Sam Shirazi
And anyways, so long story short, I think it's interesting to look at the federal fallout. I don't always talk about it on every podcast because I think there are a lot of other things going on.
11:54.24
Sam Shirazi
But I do think kind of lurking in the background is the issues with the federal government. It hasn't gone away. I think it's still a big issue in Virginia, even if you don't always hear about it in the news. It's something that's constantly impacting the economy one way or another. And so I think we're going We're going to see how much of an impact it eventually has in November.
12:15.69
Sam Shirazi
And I do hope eventually we get a good Virginia poll to kind of give a pulse on where things are right now in Virginia. But I just kind of wanted to do this quick recap and...
12:26.79
Sam Shirazi
touch base on where things are with the federal fallout. And I'm sure there'll be a lot more to discuss in future podcasts, but until then I will leave it to see what happens. And this has been federal fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. I'll see you next week.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Interview: Michael Lee Pope
17 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.47
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia elections. There is now an American Pope and I'm interviewing the Pope of Virginia politics. That's Michael Lee Pope. He is a reporter and host of another great Virginia politics podcast, the Virginia Press Room.
00:19.25
Sam Shirazi
Definitely check that one out too. That's usually comes out Monday mornings. I am listening to it on my Monday morning commute into work. So definitely check out that podcast along with Federal Fallout.
00:31.33
Sam Shirazi
And prior to hosting the Virginia Press Room, he was the host of Pod Virginia, where he was gracious gracious enough to have me as a guest several times. And now I get to be on the other side of the mic. So thank you for joining me today.
00:47.92
Michael Pope
Sam Shirazi, longtime listener, first time guest. I love your podcast. You're really knocking it out of the park here, so keep it up. i so I noticed that when you have guests on, it's more of a forensic audit of their background, so I'm a little bit nervous to be on your podcast, so don't stump me with difficult questions. But yeah,
01:09.74
Michael Pope
You know, I was actually looking at some stats. I think you've done more episodes than the press room so far. So congratulations for knocking it out of the park here and launching Federal Fallout.
01:21.40
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, thanks so much. I'm very appreciative. I mean, I was inspired to do the podcasting thing, partly, you know, my experience on PodVirginia, and I thought it'd be interesting to do one about the 2025 Virginia election. So that's why I started mine. And i I will talk a little bit about podcasting. I do think there's one thing you could probably teach me about podcasting, though.
01:40.60
Sam Shirazi
Can you guess who it is?
01:40.75
Michael Pope
Yeah, yeah, totally. There is, Sam Shirazi. You know this because I've already given you a hard time about it before we hit the record button, and I'm going to continue giving you a hard time about it. What's with the music? There's no music.
01:52.47
Michael Pope
The show just begins with you talking. You need – put some music there, a bumper. Something's got to go there. In fact, I'll tell you what. Your Zencaster account came with some funny stuff like – I think there's a comic rimshot in there.
02:08.49
Michael Pope
there's also a music bed. ah Go ahead and crank up that music bed there on Zencaster.
02:13.03
Sam Shirazi
about this one?
02:15.36
Michael Pope
That's a good one. That's a good one. You could hit that and then talk about how you're going to knock it out of the park, hit a home run in terms of every podcast is a home run when you listen to Federal Fallout. No, I was talking about the music, the button that has the really depressing music.
02:32.52
Sam Shirazi
Oh, yeah, that that could be intro.
02:35.31
Michael Pope
There we go. This is perfect. All right. Welcome, federal follow-up.
02:40.31
Sam Shirazi
All right. i I know. I know. I got to get intro music. I kind of like just starting off getting cutting the chase, but I know everyone wants the podcast intro music. But...
02:49.01
Michael Pope
or Or alternatively, you could have something really newsy. Something like that.
02:57.68
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I like that. That's that's definitely catchy. Well, I mean, I appreciate you teaching me the finer points of podcasting. so I did want to, i guess, my first question start with kind of podcasting in general, both in terms of people getting political news through podcasts, which obviously we've seen an uptick in, and you've been doing this for several years, going back to PodVirginia.
03:21.09
Sam Shirazi
mean, what made you interested in podcasts and how do you think that these these podcasts are starting to influence politics?
03:29.41
Michael Pope
It's essentially radio that's been kind of repackaged and rebranded. You know, I am a big fan of radio. I work in radio as my day job. I'm also kind of interested in the history of radio, the history of broadcasting. So it does kind of feel like we're at a moment right now where we're reinventing radio and it's in the form of a podcast and people love podcasts.
03:52.54
Michael Pope
Sam Shirazi, what podcast do you listen to?
03:54.94
Sam Shirazi
Well, obviously, I listen to the Virginia Press Room. That is my go-to.
03:58.19
Michael Pope
Okay. All right. Of course. All right. Thank you.
04:00.56
Sam Shirazi
I mean, honestly, I like to listen to news podcasts.
04:00.84
Michael Pope
Thank you for listening.
04:04.63
Sam Shirazi
I listen to different ones. I don't want to endorse any specific ones. But, I mean, I do think... I'm more of audio learner. And I do think for people who are more audio oriented, I do think it's a really good way to absorb news. And you mentioned radio. And I think that's a good point, because it used to be that there was talk radio and that was really big. And that kind of led a lot of the political discourse. Do you think podcasts are kind of now doing what talk radio did maybe in the ninety s
04:35.91
Michael Pope
That's a good question. i mean, talk radio was very influential in the 1990s. That's when we saw the rise of Rush Limbaugh as a political force. And it does kind of feel like podcasting is is a modern incarnation of that sort of talk radio thing that happened in the nineteen ninety s Yeah, i could I could buy that.
04:54.13
Michael Pope
I actually, i mean, because of it feels so new as a medium, I feel like the the better analog, the better thing to compare it to would be the original creation of radio in the sort of the early days of of broadcasting in the 1920s when they were trying to figure out how much of this is showbiz and how much of this is news.
05:14.32
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I definitely think there's an entertainment component to to podcasts, which is more hearkening back to the beginning of the radio. So yeah, a lot of interesting things with podcasts. And I think hopefully people have enjoyed my podcast. I know that they enjoy your podcast. And anyways, so I encourage everyone to keep listening.
05:32.30
Sam Shirazi
I did want to kind of ask about being a journalist. You know, you're you're on on the radio, but i i one thing that I appreciate about you is you try to be kind of an old school straight news reporter and and try to be as objective as possible. And I won't name any names, but I do think there are journalists out there today or people claiming to be journalists who definitely have a political agenda.
05:54.23
Sam Shirazi
mean, what is it like being a journalist in the current environment and trying to kind of keep the old school way of doing journalism alive in a world where, you know, a lot of the the current journalists are not necessarily trying to report things accurately?
06:07.97
Michael Pope
In a world where standards are falling apart. Yeah, you actually set it up like it's a horror movie there. Thanks for knocking my industry. I mean, it's difficult. It's difficult being in the journalism industry. I will say that in recent years, we have seen an expansion of the Virginia Price Corps. So, you know, when I first started doing political reporting, the big...
06:28.71
Michael Pope
worry at that time was the shrinking press corps. And there were fewer people covering the statehouse at that time than there had been in previous cycles. You know, like the Richmond Times dispatch used to have five people and, you know, the local television stations would have a team of people. And there were, then there were the wire services and the the big papers of course would send correspondence. And there,
06:53.52
Michael Pope
you know, there was a time when it contracted much smaller than that. But in recent years, we have seen new new positions show up. You know, like I will say for a good example of this is the Virginia Mercury.
07:07.29
Michael Pope
And they have a lot of top-notch reporters there at the Virginia Mercury cranking out great journalism all the time. And for each one of those individual journalists, that's like a new position in the press corps.
07:19.75
Michael Pope
So we have seen in recent years, in addition to the press corps, based based on new media. You know, I mean, this is, i'm I'm a legacy newspaper person, legacy media in terms of NPR being, you know, legacy terrestrial radio.
07:39.24
Michael Pope
But I'm a big fan of this, ah all this new media stuff, like like the podcast that you're doing, Sam Shirazi.
07:44.91
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, no, I mean, that that's good to hear. I mean, I do think there's definitely a lot of pessimism about the journalism industry, but I do think you make a good point that there there were new outlets and also people, I mean, I don't consider myself a journalist. I consider myself more of a political analyst, which is a little bit different.
08:01.43
Sam Shirazi
But I mean, I try to share news. i definitely use the reporters from the different sources in Virginia to kind of base my analysis on. And so I do appreciate that there's still people out there putting out news into the world, whether they're doing it through official journalism organization or just on their own.
08:20.44
Sam Shirazi
mean, what do you think about the the really legacy media outlets? So I will say in Virginia, typically the the ones that had gotten a lot of attention in the past are the Washington Post and Richmond Times-Dispatch. Those have both fallen on hard times, I would say. And do you think you know that has...
08:36.32
Sam Shirazi
led to a change in how politics is covered in Virginia? Or do you just think that's kind of a newer people are coming and and the coverage is still there?
08:45.44
Michael Pope
Well, you mentioned legacy newspapers, ah newspapers, ah two in particular there, the Richmond Times-Dispatch and the Washington Post. I will point out there is a paper in Virginia that's even older than the Washington Post, even older than the Richmond Times-Dispatch, and that's the Alexandria Gazette packet right here in old town, Alexandria founded in 1784, one of the oldest newspapers in America. And so, you know, because Virginia is as old as it is, legacy media is really legacy.
09:16.97
Michael Pope
and those papers, Still have people. the The Washington Post has a team of great reporters in the statehouse doing statehouse reporting. The Richmond Times-Dispatch has a team of reporters in the statehouse and elsewhere doing lots of great reporting. Even now, people talk about, oh, the RTD is falling apart. What's the premise of your question? i dispute the premise of the question because I think they're still cranking out really good journalism right now at this moment.
09:44.88
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, I often look at those articles and from The Washington Post, so I'm not trying to to downplay the role. I just think it's it's interesting because, you know, the the profitability of newspapers and and old school journalism has definitely gone gone down. And I think the model is shifting a little bit.
10:02.43
Sam Shirazi
But overall, I mean, i think you make a good point that we should try to still appreciate what's being put out there. There is people working hard, putting out good journalism. And I don't mean to say that things are doom and gloom, but that's often the narrative you hear. So I appreciate you kind of, you know, giving a different perspective, especially as as a current journalist.
10:22.17
Michael Pope
dirt doom Doom and gloom is kind of what it feels like. That is the zeitgeist. However, we are in a golden age of media right now. There is more good reporting going on right now than at any time in human history, right?
10:39.57
Michael Pope
There's also... a record amount of really bad journalism. I mean, horrible, terrible journalism. So, I mean, there's it's just a scale thing. There's a lot of really great reporting that's going on right now. There's also a lot of really terrible, terrible, terrible reporting that's going on right now. that So that's why I say it's the golden age of media. there's There's way more really good reporting going on right now than at any time that than there's ever been since the inventing of the printing press.
11:07.38
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, I think that's definitely all very valid points and it's it's good to keep in mind. Well, I did want to ask you about what it's like reporting this year in Virginia and what's specifically on the elections. I mean, what are you seeing and what are you hearing on the ground as a reporter?
11:23.51
Michael Pope
Well, I personally think it's kind of a bummer not having primary elections. You know, I mean, we've got the Democrats and the Republican at the top of the ticket who are running for governor have zero primary opponents. And they're both just, um you know,
11:40.99
Michael Pope
sliding into the general election season without really getting the kind of cross-examination that you typically get in a primary election. i think that's historically been a detriment to candidates. I mean, if you think about the failure of the Kamala Harris campaign, she did not have a primary and she would have been a much stronger candidate in the fall had she gone through but kind of forensic audit that you get on the campaign trail when you are elected in a primary and then go on to a general.
12:10.11
Michael Pope
So think that's, i you know, i I wish there were more of a sense of competition at the top of the ticket instead of just having these two people show up and be their party standard bearers.
12:23.67
Michael Pope
So that's the top of the ticket. And then, gosh, it's all kind of boring after that, right? I mean, the lieutenant governor race, no one ever pays attention to the lieutenant governor. Oh, wait a second. Actually, it sounds like we've been paying a lot of attention to one them.
12:36.62
Michael Pope
What the Lieutenant at Governor raises. In fact, you did like a special emergency extra podcast or two about this topic, right?
12:43.86
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, i I mean, I did want to ask you about the Republican lieutenant governor primary that never happened. Yeah. So, I mean, obviously with John Reed, he became the Republican nominee. I did an emergency podcast when he became the nominee. And then there was an emergency podcast when Governor Youngkin asked him to drop out. And I did have a specific question about that. i mean, what it's like being a journalist when a story like that comes out, because I am trying to cover it as well. And I'm trying to be fair in the sense of, you know, John Reed denied it. and you know, Governor, but at the same time, I mean, you would think there's a ah reason Governor Youngkin would call him. and And so what was it like being a journalist trying to figure out the facts when something like that is breaking really quickly?
13:25.78
Michael Pope
Well, I actually am going to give a shout out to my colleague and friend, be Brad Kuttner at Radio IQ, because he was the one that was actually following the day-to-day events. and In fact, I would even say hour-to-hour, minute-to-minute events of that fast-developing story. So Brad Kuttner of Radio IQ is Was definitely following that in a very detailed way. I will say, you know, standing back and looking at the bigger picture, it's so rare that you see parties turn the gun, or you know, turn the firing squad around and start firing on on their own headquarters.
14:03.71
Michael Pope
being like, don't they want to win in the fall? But instead of coming together to support the this candidate for a lieutenant governor, there was this effort to unseat him and there would then there would be a vacancy and then you could install somebody else as the candidate. And i mean, it just seemed like there was a lot of smoke and daggers, you know what I'm saying?
14:27.24
Michael Pope
it um um a lot of the dark art of politics, that sort of thing. And so at the end of the day, they've got a candidate that is now, you know, facing opposition from their own party. um And I'm kind of curious what the visuals are going to be when you've got...
14:46.55
Michael Pope
the Republican candidate for governor went to Earl Sears on the stage with John Reed and on the stage with Jason Miarez.
14:57.71
Michael Pope
What that's going to look like, what the body language is going to be like, what the sort of interpersonal dialogue between them is going to be. i don't know. It just kind of seems like they short circuited their candidacy even before they got to the summer.
15:12.99
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, it was definitely a crazy week and I'm sure that, you know, the Virginia GOP has kind of accepted the John Ridley nominee and want to move on. But it's going to be kind of awkward as the campaign goes on. And and are they even going to have these?
15:27.16
Sam Shirazi
Typically, you see the the ticket once it's finalized, have these, you know, joint appearances. And it's really unclear if that's going to happen this year in Virginia. So anyways, I'm sure I'm sure you will cover it along with your colleagues. And I think it's going to be an interesting campaign this year.
15:42.59
Sam Shirazi
I did want to ask you a little bit on a different topic because I think one thing I've always appreciated about your work is you bring kind of a historical perspective to things.
15:54.13
Sam Shirazi
And before I ask you a specific question about that, I just kind of wanted you to talk about you know your interest in history and also how you think History intersects with journalism in the sense of, you know, often you don't see a lot of history in journalism, but I do think when journalists include historical analogies or kind of historical background to a story, it it often makes the story much more meaningful.
16:17.96
Michael Pope
Sure, yeah, I definitely tried to do that with a lot of my reporting. i mean, I know that you've one of the things that you are hoping to talk about in this podcast is the right-to-work law in Virginia. So the historical roots of that are, you know, the bird machine, which I've spent a lot of time researching and writing and speaking about.
16:37.45
Michael Pope
And so, I mean, one I guess in response to your question, I would say when I first started doing political journalism, when I first moved to Virginia, I would hear people talk about the bird machine as an explanation for things. Right. So like this is the reason why we do things this way is because of the bird machine. And the reason why we do things that way is because of the bird machine.
16:57.86
Michael Pope
And then after the 11th, 12th, 13th time somebody said that, I said to myself, I probably should know something about the bird machine. And so I kind of wanted to work on that project for a long time before I ended up getting the contract to write the book. And so that's,
17:12.77
Michael Pope
that's A roundabout way of answering your question is that history is always lurking in the background of everything, including news. So this ah ah month, we have seen the right to work law and the news and the candidates either taking a position or not taking a position on it. But the background of how... How it happened and why it's it part of Virginia law is so fascinating. And i love doing stuff like that. Recently, actually, I used some audio of governor bill tech bill ah ah use some audio of Governor Bill Tuck talking about the right to work law in the General Assembly.
17:51.91
Michael Pope
I use that audio um public radio. And I love doing stuff like that when you talk about the history of current events and ah ah really bring some context to it.
18:01.60
Sam Shirazi
you've made me think a lot about the the past in Virginia, and especially the Byrd machine, which, you know, i i wasn't I didn't grow up here. And i like you, I came here and you you would hear things about Byrd and his machine. But, you you know, it's it seems like so long ago, but through your reporting and through your work, I've kind of realized that a lot of that stuff still hangs over Virginia. So, you know, you you mentioned right to work and something that I'm interested in in this campaign because it's it's a big issue.
18:29.67
Sam Shirazi
Could you just kind of explain what it is and the history of it in Virginia and why it's such a big issue on the campaign trail?
18:36.12
Michael Pope
Sure, yeah, well, the big picture is that it harms unions by preventing them from organizing in the way that they do in many other states. And so it allows people to have representation by the union, but not paid dues for the representation that often happens in legal cases and contract negotiations. And you know right now, the federal workers that have unions are faring better than the federal workers that don't have unions. so the history of union politics in the United States,
19:10.34
Michael Pope
the history of union organizing in the United States kind of exploded in the 1940s. And there was a lot of violence associated with union activities and a lot of desire to shut them down and stop them as political forces. And so this actually came to a head in Richmond the nineteen forty s when the major utility, which today we would call Dominion Energy, this was a time when it was called Vepco, the Virginia Electric Power Company. And so the Vepco employees wanted to strike.
19:45.56
Michael Pope
And so the governor at the time, the bird machine governor, Bill um decided that he was going to do like Kobayashi Maru. Sam Shirazi, are you familiar with Star Trek II, The Wrath of Khan?
19:59.26
Sam Shirazi
You know, to be honest, I'm more of a political nerd, not a Star Trek nerd. Yeah.
20:03.54
Michael Pope
All right, some of your listeners have probably heard of the Kobayashi Maru, which was in Star Trek. and The Kobayashi Maru, which was in Star Trek II, but then I think it also made one of the reboots as a concept. And the idea is you win the game by changing the rules of the game, right? So like Captain Kirk famously hacked into the computer and changed how the game worked, how the...
20:28.13
Michael Pope
how the the disaster scenario that they were gaming out, he changed how it worked so that he could beat the game, right? So he hacked the game in order to beat it. That's how you beat the Kobayashi Maru was the name of the the the game that they were playing or you know the disaster scenario they were trying to game out. And so the reason I bring all this up with Star Trek II the Wrath of Khan and the Kobayashi Maru is that Here we've got Governor Bill Tuck doing the Kobayashi Maru in Virginia politics to undermine the power of unions because he changed the rules of the game by saying, all you people that work for the utility, I'm going to conscript you into the Virginia militia. And unless you show up for work, you will be court-martialed because you're no longer just an employee of VEPCO. You're no longer just a utility employee now. Yeah.
21:17.69
Michael Pope
you're in the Virginia militia. And if you fail to show up for work ah as part of this union strike, we will court martial you and you will have to deal with that. And so Governor Tuck actually did something really bold, changed the rules of the game, won the day, won the day. So there was no strike. He actually headed off the strike and then followed it up the very next year with the right to work law, which has forever undermined unions in Virginia ever since.
21:43.77
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, i think that's all really helpful background on on this debate. And just to give listeners context about what happened in the last week. So progressives have for a long time been trying to push Virginia to repeal the right to work law and the Democratic nominee, Abigail Spamberger, she said that she would not fully repeal it, which, you know, in theory might leave some wiggle room. And she even she mentioned she, you know, that there could be some reform to it. But she said she would not fully repeal the right to work law.
22:13.82
Sam Shirazi
I mean, i I don't want you to speculate too much. But, you know, why do you think that Certain Democrats in Virginia have this fear of repealing right to work when the unions want it to happen, the progressives want it to happen.
22:25.96
Sam Shirazi
And it just seems like historically just a hesitancy among some Democrats in Virginia to to touch the law or at least to fully repeal the law, as Congress, as Abigail Spamberger said, she said she's not going to do.
22:38.86
Michael Pope
The Democrats are in a tough spot here, no doubt about it. I mean, one thing is you have to remember Governor Bill Tuck was a Democrat, right? And so the creation of the right to work law is the history of the Democratic Party in Virginia. And so this is a bill that was created by a machine that was run by Democrats. So that's the origin of it. And then these days, you got all the business people who say, hey, don't get rid of the right-to-work law or you'll lose that best-in-business status. Hey, you want to be named CNBC's number one state of business, right? Don't you?
23:12.42
Michael Pope
yeah that would be it would That's a really nice ranking you got. It would be a shame to lose it. And so that's... like That's the threat. The business people like the fact that there's ah ah this right to work law and do not want to see the those liberals, so those progressive Democrats get rid of the right to work law. And and, you know, this is.
23:34.05
Michael Pope
created attention in the Democratic Party for some time. If you think about ah Governor Terry McAuliffe's campaign for governor in 2021, he was flummoxed on this issue. He told a a labor group on a Zoom meeting that he was in favor of overturning the right to work law. But then when I asked him the question in the parking lot of Port City Brewing here in Alexandria, he would not commit to overturning the right to work. So he had a shifting position on which indicates this tension inside of the Democratic Party, the sort of pro-labor rah-rah-rah for, you know, the union label. And then on the other side of the issue, the big business folks who want the CNBC ranking um best in business.
24:17.75
Michael Pope
So um saw McAuliffe sort of shifting his positions. And then this year has also been really interesting to watch the politics because we saw all six Democrats running for lieutenant governor.
24:29.26
Michael Pope
to come out in favor of repealing the right to work law in a televised debate that happened in Roanoke a couple weeks ago. I was a little surprised by that, Sam Shirazi. I was not expecting all six of the Democrats running for lieutenant governor to come out in favor of repealing the right to work. And then – Abigail Spanberger didn't really have a position. yeah Actually, after that debate with the lieutenant governor candidate, Saul coming out in favor of repealing the right to work, i tried to get a statement from the Spanberger campaign. And they sent me a written statement, but it didn't really say much. right I mean, it wasn't like she's in favor of repeal or she's in favor of keeping it.
25:06.44
Michael Pope
And that was the position that she eventually took. And so, you know, I think her position currently is a little cloudy. And i i mean, is she so she's not in favor of repeal. i mean, that's clear.
25:20.71
Michael Pope
And i guess she's in favor of keeping it, although modifying it some way that's a little bit unclear at this point. I feel like we need to hear more from Abigail Spamberger. i feel like she needs to talk to me because I've got lots of questions to ask her.
25:32.89
Michael Pope
And you know Her media people don't like – I guess don't like me asking the questions because after they sent me this two-sentence written statement that really did not answer the question, i tried to get an interview with the candidate to talk about her position on the right to work. And you know their campaign just stopped responding to my – to just stopped responding to my emails and text messages. So clearly this is a topic that they're not really comfortable talking about.
26:00.38
Michael Pope
And that fits into a long pattern here that dates back to the McAuliffe having troubles with this in 2021. And it actually being the origin story of it here being that it was created by the Democratic Party.
26:14.39
Sam Shirazi
Well, before I let you go, I did want to ask you one other question about an issue that's coming up on the campaign trail that has a long historical legacy here in Virginia, and that is the issue of felon disenfranchisement. So Virginia is one of a few one of the few states left where if you are convicted convicted of a felony,
26:33.03
Sam Shirazi
you lose your right to vote for the rest of your life unless the governor reinstates that right. Democrats have proposed a constitutional constitutional amendment that would automatically restore the right to vote for people when they are released from prison after serving their felony sentence.
26:50.77
Sam Shirazi
The first round of voting on that law took place this year, and most Republicans in the Virginia General Assembly voted against it. If the Democrats win the House of Delegates this November, they will vote on it again next year, and it will go to the voters in 2026 for a referendum.
27:09.49
Sam Shirazi
And so I wanted to ask you specifically about this issue because, you know, there's been a little bit of polling on it, and generally it polls pretty well. I think if it goes on the ballot, almost certainly it will pass, and it might even pass with about two-thirds of the vote.
27:23.88
Sam Shirazi
So this seems like a pretty popular thing. And, it and you know, the right to vote is obviously important. And in Virginia has had a messy history where African-Americans were denied the right to vote for a long time and and a lot of the legacy of the Jim Crow era.
27:39.35
Sam Shirazi
mean, why do you think the Republicans aren't fully behind this proposed constitutional amendment that would allow people convicted of felonies to regain their right to vote?
27:50.12
Michael Pope
Well, Republicans actually kind of like talking about voter fraud on the campaign trail and it actually gets their base kind of riled up. So, I mean, I'm not really sure.
28:01.22
Michael Pope
i mean, this issue cuts both ways too. I mean, you can talk about the racist history of felon felon disenfranchisement, which, you know, obviously we're about to do on this podcast, but it's important to also remember while we're having this discussion about the that, you that this is an issue that resonates with people today in 2025 on the campaign trail who think that the votes are all rigged and you have all these people who are undocumented people voting and and rigging the elections. And so this is an issue that actually does play on the campaign trail. But the history of voter felon disenfranchisement is really interesting. It's one of those things
28:40.76
Michael Pope
that you would frequently hear people say, well, that's the bird machine. That's the legacy of the bird machine. And I'm here to fact check that. Not true. Felon disenfranchisement dates way earlier than the bird machine.
28:53.51
Michael Pope
and actually is the early 1800s when Virginia constitutions started ah ah disenfranchising felons. And so the bird machine inherited...
29:04.68
Michael Pope
fell in disenfranchisement and ran with it to make sure that they had very small numbers of people voting. This is one of the ways that they maintained power for a long time, but don't let anybody tell you felon disenfranchisement is a legacy of the bird machine because it is not, it is actually much older than that. And it's something that the bird machine inherited. and as a matter of fact,
29:27.66
Michael Pope
Really interesting history here because you mentioned that Black people were denied the right to vote in Jim Crow. But let's remember there was an era before Jim Crow when Black people not just voted, but there were lots of Black elected officials in the General Assembly. And so the history is more complicated than Black people never voting because it was, there was a war, there was Reconstruction, and then after Reconstruction. There was this really interesting period after Reconstruction that it is the era of black power.
30:02.28
Michael Pope
And there was a political machine, the readjuster machine that was created by Senator William Mahone at that time period that actually had black elected officials as part of it. A little bit ironic because Mahone was a former Confederate general, former Confederate general running a political machine that largely depended on political power from black people.
30:25.39
Michael Pope
And then that whole thing fell apart. The machine fell apart. The conservative Democrats reasserted their power and created the era of Jim Crow. So sort of the history of felon disenfranchisement in Virginia is not a straight line. It's ah ah it's a really dramatic story that has ups and downs and ins and outs. And So, you know, I'm positive the Democrats love talking about this on the campaign trail. It is actually a little surprising. And when you talk to people who are not familiar with the history and the the way all of this works, most people would be surprised. Most people are surprised.
31:01.99
Michael Pope
to learn that Virginia is the only state of the country that has the system where the governor has to give people the right to vote back. The only state in the country where the governor has to give people their right to vote back to them.
31:15.70
Michael Pope
And so this is the kind of thing Democrats certainly like talking about on the campaign trail, but I will say, Republicans also like talking about this on the campaign trail and talking about voter fraud and stirring up these fears and concerns that it's all rigged and people who shouldn't be casting ballots are casting ballots. And the election people are hiding votes in suitcases under their desks and shuttling them around in the middle of the night.
31:43.85
Michael Pope
And there's satellites from Italy that are changing the numbers and you know there is definitely a market out there for that kind of stuff and so the i would say you know of that being a campaign issue certainly something that people are going to talk about but the politics cut both ways
32:00.84
Sam Shirazi
Well, I mean, I really appreciate you laying out that history. And, you know, I will also mention your book again. It's called The Bird Machine in Virginia, The Rise and Fall of a Conservative Political Organization.
32:11.86
Sam Shirazi
I did read it. I found it really interesting. I think there's a lot of lessons can be applied today. and And there's a lot of things you hear in Virginia that you you may not think about. And I think your your book does a good job laying out some of the legacy of the bird machine. So Anyways, I thought it was really interesting talking to you. i always appreciate your kind of historical perspective. I appreciate your pulse on Virginia elections and politics. So thank you so much for coming on today.
32:38.64
Michael Pope
Hey, congratulations again on the federal fallout. I look forward to listening to episodes in the future.
32:46.87
Sam Shirazi
thanks so much. And yes, also go listen to the Virginia Press Room and i will join you next week on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Episode 12: House of Delegates Primary Preview
17 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.72
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This episode, we will go over the primaries in the House of Delegates. So to start off, I should note that there are not actually a lot of primaries this year in Virginia.
00:16.98
Sam Shirazi
There are and only nine on the Democratic side and eight on the GOP side. So remember, there are 100 seats in the House of Delegates. So that means theoretically there could have been 200 primaries if you add the Republicans and Democrats.
00:29.48
Sam Shirazi
The reality is most incumbents will not face a primary. And even in ah ah other districts, it's often hard if it's a safe blue or safe red district to find more than one person willing to run.
00:42.28
Sam Shirazi
And you know I mentioned that there aren't many challenges to incumbents this year. There's just two on the Democratic side and one on the GOP side. And that's a little surprising given the talk that we hear, particularly on the Democratic side about potential primaries in the 2026 midterms.
00:57.52
Sam Shirazi
midterm But the reality is it's hard to challenge an incumbent. And also one thing to keep in mind is Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates.
01:08.31
Sam Shirazi
That means they're not going to bring bills unless they know it can pass and they know that everyone's on board. So I think that limits the opportunities for incumbents to vote against bills and maybe have a primary challenger attack their record. So that's just something to keep in mind, part of the reason why there aren't primaries that many primaries on the Democratic side.
01:28.13
Sam Shirazi
Okay, so first I'll go through the Democratic primaries and then I'll do the GOP primaries. I'll try to first go through the incumbents facing a primary. Then I'll talk about some of the targeted districts, the battleground districts.
01:39.80
Sam Shirazi
And then I'll finally end with the less competitive seats that still have primaries. And I should note that I won't be making any formal predictions about who's going to win. I may kind of tip the hand in terms of who I think is maybe more competitive or if one of the candidates has an advantage, but it's a little bit too early given that the primary is still still ah a few weeks off to give a formal prediction.
02:04.58
Sam Shirazi
Okay, so I will go ahead and get started on the Democratic side with the first district. And and I mean that literally, there the incumbent in the first district in the House of Delegates, Patrick Hope, faces a primary from not one, but two different challengers.
02:21.14
Sam Shirazi
And another fun fact for all the listeners, this is actually my district. So I live in North Arlington. I also am just familiar with what's going on, given that this is my district and I can kind of get a sense of how things are on the ground.
02:34.00
Sam Shirazi
And I should note, this is a very blue district, one of the bluest districts in Virginia. So whoever wins the primary almost certainly is going to win the general elections. So ah Patrick Hope, he's the incumbent. He's been in office since 2010.
02:47.86
Sam Shirazi
And obviously when you have an incumbent in office for a while, in theory, it could draw primary challengers after they've been in office. I should say that Delegate Hope is still relatively young, at least as politicians go. He's 53. So this isn't in a situation where someone is getting into their 80s and they're they're facing a primary challenge.
03:09.07
Sam Shirazi
And in terms of the candidates who are are challenging Delegate Hope, so first there is Arjun Sirkot. He is running, i would say, kind of as a traditional younger candidate running against an incumbent, maybe trying to bring a different energy and or try to run on a more progressive platform in some places.
03:31.78
Sam Shirazi
And then the second candidate is Sean Philip Epstein. And I'd say he's running from a little bit of a different angle. He's almost running from the center. And so you have this dynamic where Patrick Hope is kind of in the middle and then he's got someone running maybe from a younger or more progressive lane. And then he has someone challenging challenging him essentially from the middle, which is kind of rare because you don't see a lot of primary challengers from people coming from the center and challenging incumbent Democrat.
04:01.59
Sam Shirazi
So some interesting dynamics in this district. I would say, you know, the one of the advantages that Patrick Hope has is the reality is he has two challengers. And in Virginia, whoever gets the most votes wins the primary.
04:13.78
Sam Shirazi
So typically in that situation, if you are an incumbent, you prefer to have more challengers because that splits the vote. So I think the fact that he has two challengers will make it difficult for either one of them to get enough votes.
04:25.66
Sam Shirazi
Now, in theory, maybe if Arjun is able to bring in younger voters, for example, that live in the Ballston area of Arlington, he might have a chance. Or if Sean Philip Epstein might be able to get people who are maybe more independents who typically don't vote in a Democratic primary, if he's able to bring those people out, maybe he'll have a chance.
04:47.02
Sam Shirazi
But, you know, just the reality is it's very difficult to defeat an incumbent and it's even more difficult to defeat an incumbent if there are two challengers. So that's just something and keep in mind. I'm not saying that it's impossible for this primary to lead to a different delegate at the end of the day. But I do think the reality is it's very difficult to defeat an incumbent when there are two challengers.
05:10.06
Sam Shirazi
Okay, now let's move on to the second Democratic incumbent with a primary, and that's in House District 81 in Eastern Henrico. The incumbent is Dolores McQuinn, who has been in office since 2009. And this is another very blue district. It's majority African American.
05:28.44
Sam Shirazi
Whoever wins the primary almost certainly will be elected in the general election. I should note that ah Dolores McQuinn also faced a primary in 2023, which she easily fended off with 82% of the vote.
05:42.100
Sam Shirazi
So it kind of shows you that she has seen primaries before and she's been able to beat that back. But this year she is facing a primary challenge from Henrico School Board member Alicia Atkins.
05:56.02
Sam Shirazi
Given that she's already an elected official, I don't think you can dismiss this primary challenge out of hand. But at the same time, you have to keep in mind that Delegate McQuinn faced a credible challenger who spent a lot of money in 2023, and she won with over of the vote.
06:13.16
Sam Shirazi
So again, i just think you have to keep that in mind. It's hard to defeat an incumbent, and especially an incumbent that has not really shown a whole lot of vulnerability in a primary two years ago.
06:25.31
Sam Shirazi
So again, you want to keep an eye on it. You want to keep an open mind, given that her opponent is a school board member, has been elected in her own right. But Again, it's difficult to beat incumbents, and that's part of the reason you don't see a lot of challenge to incumbents this year, because people realistically know that it's going to be an uphill climb.
06:44.50
Sam Shirazi
So I think both incumbents on the Democratic side, while you know they have challengers who they have to take seriously, i just don't know if this is the the year where there there's going to be a lot of challenges.
06:58.18
Sam Shirazi
incumbents going down to defeat, at least in the primaries, we can talk about the general election in another podcast. Okay, now let's turn to primaries and districts that Democrats are targeting and that will be battleground districts.
07:11.54
Sam Shirazi
First up is House District 57. It's in the Richmond suburbs. The current incumbent is GOP Delegate David Owen. and As I mentioned, this is one of the most likely seats to flip in November. So definitely a lot riding on the primary because the winner of the primary very well could be the next delegate in this district.
07:31.10
Sam Shirazi
So the first candidate to announce was May Navarre. She's a former chair of the Virginia Asia Advisory Board, and she has gotten the most establishment support, including an endorsement from Congresswoman Jennifer McClellan.
07:45.27
Sam Shirazi
The second ah person to announce is small business owner Andrew Scheer. And i would say that given the the endorsements that Mae Navarra has gone gotten, I would say that she's a front runner.
07:59.80
Sam Shirazi
i don't want to say it's impossible for Scheer to win the primary. I think he would have to bring in maybe independent voters or younger voters or maybe progressive voters if he's trying to run a more progressive campaign to to win the primary. Because the reality is if it's just kind of the Democratic local people who show up, Mae Navarra is probably going to have the inside track given all the endorsements she has.
08:22.06
Sam Shirazi
But in theory, if he's able to bring out a different type of voter and expand the pool of voters, then he might have a chance in this primary. And again, keep in mind, anyone can vote in the Virginia primaries.
08:32.74
Sam Shirazi
There is no party registration. So while typically, obviously, it's going to be people who self-identify as Democrats who vote in these primaries, it doesn't have to be people who are Democrats. And it's possible that people who consider themselves independents vote in these primaries.
08:47.58
Sam Shirazi
And I think sometimes and with challengers in the primaries, part of the strategy might be to bring in independence because maybe the people who are local Democrats who go to all the events, they're typically going to vote for one candidate. But if you're going to be able to expand the pool of voters, might lead to a different outcome.
09:04.84
Sam Shirazi
So just something to keep in mind as we're going through these primaries. Okay. The next district is House District 73. This is in Chesterfield. The incumbent is GOP. Delegate Mark Early, and he is facing a potential challenge from two different Democrats, depending on who wins the primary.
09:23.08
Sam Shirazi
And this is, i would say, a little bit more of a reach district for Democrats, but Vice President Harris did carry it by one point. So definitely a seat that could flip if the Democrats have a good night in November.
09:35.17
Sam Shirazi
And there are two Democrats running in the primary. One of them is Leslie Mehta and the other person running is Justin Woodford. And I would say just for people's awareness, Leslie Mehta was the 2024 nominee in the first congressional district.
09:51.52
Sam Shirazi
So obviously she's got a lot of name ID. A lot of people in this district may have voted for Leslie Mehta in the past, just given that she was the nominee last year. in the congressional district that includes this House of Delegates seat.
10:05.22
Sam Shirazi
And so think the conventional wisdom is Leslie Mehta has an advantage in this primary, just given that she's ran before, she has more of a network from her previous run. So not saying she's definitely going win, but I think if you were going to try to figure out who has more of an advantage right now, I would give that to Leslie Mehta.
10:23.60
Sam Shirazi
All right, let's keep moving to House District 75. The current incumbent is Republican Delegate Kerry Conyer. And again, this is going to be a competitive seat in November.
10:37.12
Sam Shirazi
This ah ah district, Vice President Harris, carried by around six points. So definitely going to be a top target for Democrats. in the November general election. But first they have to decide who their nominee is going to be. And there are three people running on the Democratic side.
10:52.10
Sam Shirazi
There's Lindsey Daughtry. Stephen Miller-Pitts, and Dustin Wade. So Stephen Miller-Pitts was actually the 2023 nominee in this district for the Democrats.
11:03.24
Sam Shirazi
And Lindsey Daughtry, she was a previous nominee, not in this district, but in a similar district before redistricting. So she has also run in this area. So you would think both of them, just given that they ran before, might have some familiarity in the in the area.
11:17.32
Sam Shirazi
And I think sometimes in these districts, you just got to look at the demographic breakdown. So the district is about... third African-American, and you're guessing that that's going to lead to a decent amount of Democratic voters being African-American in the primary.
11:31.07
Sam Shirazi
And I should note that Stephen Miller Pitts is African-American, so I think he would have, obviously, some support from that community, and that's kind of what he's looking to those Get those voters out for the primary.
11:41.54
Sam Shirazi
Lindsey Daughtry, you would think maybe among women voters, she might have more of a natural support base. Dustin Wade, I think he may be trying to engage younger voters. And honestly, of the primaries, this is the one I'm having a hard time trying to figure out who has the advantage, just given the demographics of the district, given the two of the Candidates have already ran before. And so I don't really know who has an advantage right now. And I think it's just going to be one of those things.
12:08.100
Sam Shirazi
We'll find out who the Democratic nominee is in this battleground district once the primary votes are in. All right, I'm gonna talk and about another battleground district that has a Democratic primary. This is House District 89 in the Suffolk area.
12:23.90
Sam Shirazi
And this is a district that Vice President Harris carried by around three points. And there are two Democrats running. One of them, and I will say, I think, We can all agree he has a pretty cool name. It's Blazin Buckshot Bloom.
12:38.53
Sam Shirazi
And then there is Karen Roberts Carnegie, who is running in this district. And again, it just kind of depends on who's coming out in these primaries. I think one of the advantage Karen Carnegie might have is that Primaries, typically the majority of the people voting are women. And so usually you think women have an advantage in primaries. You know, Blazin Buckshot Bloom, if he's able to maybe organize young people and get them to come out to vote in the primary, that might give him a chance. But if I had to guess, I'm guessing Carnegie right now has a little bit of an advantage in this primary.
13:12.79
Sam Shirazi
Okay, let's keep chugging along. So I'm going to go to the next round of of House districts on the Democratic side. There are a couple in what I would call reach districts that were I talked about in my sleeper races podcast.
13:26.03
Sam Shirazi
So these are not necessarily the seats that are the top tier battlegrounds. But in theory, if there's a really good night on the Democratic side, these seats could be competitive. So I will start with House District 49. This is in the Danville area.
13:39.78
Sam Shirazi
And Trump won this district by about eight points. There are two Democrats running, Jasmine Lipscomb and then Gary Miller. i believe Gary Miller is on the Danville City Council. So you might think he might have an advantage being an elected official in the district.
13:57.50
Sam Shirazi
I should note, however, the district has a sizable African-American population. And Jasmine Lipscomb comes from that community and she's also a woman. So you would think maybe she has that advantage in the primary.
14:09.94
Sam Shirazi
So again, it's kind of hard for me to make a prediction about who's ahead right now, but another district where we'll just have to wait and see what happens when the votes come in. Okay, the next district with a Democratic primary is House District 40, and this is in the Roanoke-Salem area. The current incumbent is Joe McNamara, and the district is about a nine-point Trump district, so pretty tough for the Democrats, but in theory on a competitive night could get interesting if the Democrats have a blowout at the top of the ticket.
14:41.57
Sam Shirazi
The two Democratic candidates are Donna Littlepage and Keisha Preston. And, you you know, honestly, it's kind of hard for me to know who would have the advantage sometimes in these seats that aren't necessarily top tier battlegrounds. It's a little bit hard to distinguish the candidates. So we'll just have to wait and see how things shake out during the primary.
15:03.65
Sam Shirazi
And it's somewhat similar in the next district. And this is the final ah House of Delegates District with a Democratic primary. This is House District 72. This is kind of in the outer exurbs of Richmond in parts of Chesterfield and Powhat Town County.
15:23.13
Sam Shirazi
The current incumbent is Republican Lee Ware. This is a district that Trump won by more than 20 points. And there are two Democrats running. There is Randolph Kritzer and
15:35.77
Sam Shirazi
Bilal Reuchuny, And I should note that Ray Chuni was the 2023 nominee in this district, so he's running again. you you might think, okay, because he was previously the nominee, he might have a little bit of an advantage. But again, it's a little bit hard for me to make a prediction right now about some of these seats.
15:53.91
Sam Shirazi
And I should say on the Democratic side, as I noted in my podcast on the sleeper seats, uh democrats got candidates to run in all 100 seats and a lot of those seats the democrats just didn't have a primary because only one person filed and so if obviously there's only one person filed then there won't be a primary uh but in these other seats you will see these primaries and obviously Some of the seats that we discussed are some of the top tier battlegrounds this year in Virginia.
16:23.30
Sam Shirazi
So we will have to wait and see what happens in the Democratic primary for the House of Delegates. And as i I mentioned before, there were obviously statewide primaries for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General on the Democratic side. And so that's really going to be driving turnout. And then people show up and vote and then there might they might realize, oh, there's some House of Delegates seats as well.
16:44.65
Sam Shirazi
So just something keep in mind, not everyone voting is going to be super tuned in to the House of Delegates races, and they might make their mind up at the last minute.
16:54.02
Sam Shirazi
Okay, so let's move over to the Republican House of Delegates primaries. And keep in mind, there is no statewide office on the ballot for Republicans in the primary.
17:05.46
Sam Shirazi
That means the highest office on the ballot in the Republican primary are these House of Delegates races. And to be honest, you have to be a pretty hardcore Republican to realize there's a House of Delegates primary in your district and then to go out and vote.
17:18.83
Sam Shirazi
So it's a little bit of a different dynamic than the Democratic primary. And I do think the the Republican primaries are going to have generally less turnout and it's going to be generally more partisan people who vote in the Republican primaries in these House of Delegates races as compared to the Democratic House of Delegates races.
17:35.43
Sam Shirazi
And the first district we're going to be talking about is House District 37. This is based in western and rural parts of Virginia outside of Roanoke.
17:46.20
Sam Shirazi
The current incumbent is Republican Terry Austin. And he has been in office since 2014.
17:53.94
Sam Shirazi
And one thing to keep in mind with this district, it is a very red district. So whoever wins this primary is is almost 100% guaranteed to win the general election in November.
18:05.99
Sam Shirazi
And so he, the current delegate, Delegate Austin, is facing a primary from Austin Schwendt. I think that's how you pronounce it. um And I will say this. I mean, it's, you know, you never want to say never, but I think it's pretty unlikely that, you the incumbent would lose this primary, just given the amount of money that he has. And also just, he's been in office for a while. And so I don't necessarily think this is the type of seat where the incumbent will lose. However, having said that, particularly on the Republican side, I do think it's really unpredictable because again, as I mentioned, it's going to be pretty hardcore partisan people who going to come out.
18:47.64
Sam Shirazi
And if the challenger is able to kind of portray this as he's running as anti-establishment. I mean, nowadays that appeal on the Republican side is kind of strong. So I could see, in theory, a scenario where he could try to pull up the pull off the upset. And the reason I say that, and not to change topics too much, but I think we all, if you know Virginia elections in 2014,
19:13.28
Sam Shirazi
The House Majority Leader, leader Eric Cantor, lost his U.S. House primary in a stunning upset, which almost no one saw coming, to the eventual Congressman Dave Brat.
19:26.77
Sam Shirazi
And so i I just say that in Republican primaries, crazy things have happened in the past. It doesn't mean that every single Republican primary, the incumbent is going to lose. But I just say that you never know what's going to happen in Republican primaries.
19:40.50
Sam Shirazi
So just something to keep in mind, even though I do think the current delegate in this district is pretty safe. Okay, now let's move on to some battleground districts.
19:51.82
Sam Shirazi
So I will start off with the 21st House of Delegates district. This is in western Prince William County. The current incumbent is Democrat Josh Thomas.
20:02.54
Sam Shirazi
This was roughly a six-point Harris seat in November, and so it would take a pretty good night for the Republicans to be able to flip it. But in theory, if there's the Republicans do better than expected, this is the kind type of seat that could be competitive.
20:17.23
Sam Shirazi
And there are actually three Republicans running. And I will say that for a long time, no one was running in this district. And so I had been kind of pointing that out. It's a little bit odd, given that in theory, this should be a battleground district.
20:30.09
Sam Shirazi
that no one was running. And I don't know if that caused everyone to start to decide that they wanted to run, but eventually the Republicans got three candidates in this district. And so there will be this primary to pick the nominee to go up against Josh Thomas.
20:45.13
Sam Shirazi
And the three people running are Greg Gorham, Sarah Smith,
20:52.44
Sam Shirazi
and Zante Larson. And again, I should say this is the type of primary where it's really kind of hard for me to pick who has an advantage.
21:02.16
Sam Shirazi
You know, Republican primaries, are a little bit more unpredictable, I would say, than the Democratic primaries most of the time. And know none of these candidates seem to have gotten any sort of establishment backing.
21:13.18
Sam Shirazi
I think they were all running their own races without any sort of major outside interference. And so when there's a primary like that, it's just really hard to know who is has the advantage.
21:23.89
Sam Shirazi
So another district where we'll just have to see what happens on the primary day to figure out who the opponent for Josh Thomas will be in the 21st House of Delegates District.
21:34.92
Sam Shirazi
Okay, I'll talk about a couple other potential battleground districts. I will talk about House District 89. And remember that we talked about this district In the Democratic primary, there's also a Republican primary because this is an open seat. So the incumbent Republican decided to retire.
21:51.84
Sam Shirazi
So House District 89, remember, it's in the Suffolk area and roughly a Harris plus three district. So again, Democrats are targeting it. It's going to be a top battleground.
22:02.87
Sam Shirazi
There are two Republicans running, Kirsten Shannon and Mike Lamine.
22:10.91
Sam Shirazi
And I would say Lamine has an advantage in this primary because the incumbent who has decided to retire, his name's Baxter Ennis, he has endorsed him. So I think on the whole, that should give him an advantage. And so we'll see if he ends up being able to win the primary.
22:32.71
Sam Shirazi
but Okay, one more potential battleground district. This is House District 97 in the Virginia Beach area. The current incumbent is Democrat Michael Fegans. This is roughly an eight-point-plus Harris seat. So again, Republicans would need ah ah need a good night to win this seat.
22:50.40
Sam Shirazi
But someone who won an unexpected House of Delegates seat in ah ah Virginia Beach area in 2021 is Tim Anderson. So Tim Anderson was the delegate from a nearby delegate seat in Virginia Beach between 2022 and 2023.
23:08.02
Sam Shirazi
He decided to run for the Virginia State Senate in 2023, and he lost that primary. And now he's attempting to make a comeback by taking on the incumbent Democrat Michael Fegans. However, he first has to get through the primary and there's another Republican running. Her name is Christina Miriam Felder.
23:28.28
Sam Shirazi
I mean, realistically, I think given that he was a previous delegate and he has support among a lot of the establishment in the Republican Party in Virginia Beach, and in Virginia generally, I would say Tim Anderson's a pretty hate a heavy favorite to win this primary. I'd be kind of shocked if he didn't end up being the nominee in this district.
23:47.28
Sam Shirazi
So I think we're going to see an interesting matchup in the general election in this district between Michael Fegans and Tim Anderson. Okay, let's talk about some seats that will have incumbents retiring in very deep red seats. So that means whoever wins the primary ah will almost certainly be the winner of the general election. And I will start with House District 46. This is in Southwest Virginia.
24:13.04
Sam Shirazi
The current incumbent is Republican Jed Arnold, and he has decided to retire. And there are two people running on the Republican side. One of them is Adam Tolbert, and the other one is Mitchell Cornett.
24:26.98
Sam Shirazi
And I would say that Tolbert definitely has a leg up in this primary because Governor Glenn Youngkin has endorsed him, the Virginia GOP House Republican. Delegate leader Todd Gilbert has endorsed him. So definitely seeing the the big guns in the Virginia GOP backing Tolbert in this race. So, you know, you never know. But I think it's pretty likely that Tolbert has a ah pretty big advantage in this race right now. And so I can't imagine that and he wouldn't win. But as I said, crazier things have happened in the Republican primaries. But I would say that definitely Tolbert right now has the leg up.
25:02.81
Sam Shirazi
Okay, let's move over to House of Delegates District 62. This is in the culpert Culpeper area of Central Virginia. The current incumbent Republican is Nick Freitas, and he has decided to retire.
25:18.06
Sam Shirazi
And there are two Republicans running to replace him, Karen Hamilton and Clay Jackson. And I would definitely say that Karen Hamilton has an advantage because Nick Freitas has endorsed her.
25:32.75
Sam Shirazi
Another fun fact is that Karen Hamilton is actually the wife of Cameron Hamilton. And if that name sounds familiar, there's probably two reasons. one He, Cameron Hamilton, ran in the 7th District house U.S. House race in 2024. He came up second in the primary.
25:53.00
Sam Shirazi
And after that, he was appointed to become the acting head of FEMA. But that ended recently because he was dismissed after saying that he did not believe FEMA should be eliminated.
26:05.33
Sam Shirazi
Anyways, going way off track, but just to give you a sense of why ah ah this race for the... primary will not probably be super competitive and why Karen Hamilton has the advantage given that she has these connections and she has the endorsement of the current delegate.
26:22.53
Sam Shirazi
And this is a very red seat, so almost certainly the winner of the primary will win the general election. Okay, one more seat where the current incumbent is retiring, and this one is one we talked to about on the Democratic primary. This is House District 49 in the Danville area.
26:41.28
Sam Shirazi
And so remember, this is on one of the sleeper seats that may be competitive on a good night for Democrats. It was a Trump plus eight district, but you know more likely than not, the Republicans have an advantage in this seat.
26:53.20
Sam Shirazi
And there are two people running. And that the two mim people running are Madison Whittle, who is a member of the Danville City Council.
27:02.36
Sam Shirazi
There's also Vanessa Reynolds-Skierce. And I would say that Whittle definitely has an advantage in this race, just given that he's raised a lot more money. He's an elected official on the Danville City Council.
27:13.90
Sam Shirazi
So again, you know never say never, but if I had to guess, I would say that Whittle has the advantage in this race. And again, whoever goes on to the general election for both the Democrats and Republicans, in theory, this could be a competitive seat in November.
27:28.11
Sam Shirazi
Okay, one more question. House of Delegates primary on the Republican side, and this is the only one that would say that it's in a safe Democratic seat. So this is in the 70th House of Delegates district, which is based in Newport News.
27:44.43
Sam Shirazi
The current incumbent Democrat Democratic delegate is Shelley Simons and this is roughly a 20 plus Harris seat so obviously Democrats are almost certainly going to win it in the general election but there are two Republicans running in this seat two, three. There is Cynthia Saktariko and there is Haley Louise Shoup-Dollar. And i will, again, hard to predict usually when it's a safe seat and the other side has a primary. It's usually hard to predict who's going to win win a winner, pick a winner.
28:18.52
Sam Shirazi
I will say, I don't want to get too much into the weeds of this primary, but Shoop Dollar, there were some stories about her doing modeling and some you know pictures that she had, which I don't think were too scandalous, but that was an issue that was being raised. And again, i don't want to go into the whole ins and outs of that story because I don't think it's that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things, but just something to keep in mind that could come up in this primary.
28:42.85
Sam Shirazi
Either way, you know i I don't know who's going to win the primary and you know realistically, regardless of the Republican candidate, it's pretty unlikely that they are going to win this seat in the general election.
28:55.02
Sam Shirazi
Okay, so stepping back. I think definitely I would say this year in the House of Delegates, the primaries have gotten a lot less attention that they have in previous years and they that compared to the Democratic primaries for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.
29:09.78
Sam Shirazi
In 2023, there weren't a whole lot of House of Delegates primaries. There were definitely more than this year, but there were a lot of state senate primaries, and there were a lot of state senate primaries on the Democratic side where Democratic incumbents lost in the primary. and you know In theory, we could have had some sort of dynamic like this that this year on the Democratic side, particularly with all the talk about primary incumbents in 2026.
29:33.95
Sam Shirazi
I think for whatever reason, that did not materialize this year in Virginia. So that's just something to keep in mind. And, know, I mentioned some of these battleground districts, the and nominees for the parties will be picked in these primaries. So I think they're important in that sense that some of these races will have to wait and see who the.
29:54.03
Sam Shirazi
incumbent will face in some of these battleground districts where the Democrats are targeting. I will say a lot of the districts already have their nominees in terms of the Democratic challengers.
30:05.66
Sam Shirazi
That's either because no one else filed or because there's a decent amount of repeat candidates from 2023 this time. So all that's to say is, you know, I think this is super interesting. I enjoy looking into these primaries and trying to figure out who has an advantage.
30:21.05
Sam Shirazi
And I've tried to share my wisdom with you. But realistically, I would say for the June 17th primary, the big show will be the lieutenant governor in primaries for the Democrats and the attorney general primary for the Democrats. And that's driving a lot of the turnout.
30:34.84
Sam Shirazi
While all these House Delegates seats are interesting, I just don't know who's actually showing up just for House of Delegates primary. I'm sure there are people who really love their candidates. But again, the majority of people on June 17th will be focusing on the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor and General.
30:51.32
Sam Shirazi
And I will do a subsequent podcast just talking a little bit more about those two primaries because I think they're really interesting. But I do think it's important to talk about the House of Delegates primaries because they don't get a lot of attention. And I just think, you know, these are all important races in their own way. I think obviously who the nominees are going to be important and particularly in the battleground districts and or the ah ah safe districts where whoever wins the primary is almost certainly going to be the next delegate.
31:16.48
Sam Shirazi
I mean, some of these districts we talked about that are very blue or very red. i mean, the primary is essentially the main election because whoever wins the primary is going to be the next delegate. I mean, obviously there still has to be the general election, but it's almost a formality because the primary is the main election. so I hope everyone found this interesting. I know I got into some of the weeds and I jumped around. There were a lot of districts to cover, but honestly, this is a lot less than some years, so it wasn't too challenging. And I hope everyone found it interesting.
31:45.10
Sam Shirazi
I do think as we get closer to the primary day, I will focus more on the attorney general and lieutenant governor's races, but I did want to talk about all the House of Delegates primaries in this podcast, and I hope everyone found it interesting.
31:57.57
Sam Shirazi
And I will join you next time on Federal Fallout.

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Bonus Interview: Kevin Holst Executive Director of DLGA
10 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.47
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode I will be interviewing Kevin Holst. He is the Executive Director of the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association. So Kevin, thank you for joining me.
00:16.24
Kevin Holst
Thanks for having me on.
00:18.16
Sam Shirazi
So just to begin, could you please talk about your background and what your organization does?
00:24.68
Kevin Holst
Yeah. So the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association is the official Democratic Party organization which supports and uplifts our Democratic Lieutenant Governors.
00:35.36
Kevin Holst
For your listeners who may not have heard of us before compared to DGA, the DSEC, DTRIP, I won't be offended. We were just reestablished in 2018 and have have had a great amount of growth. We have a record 24 Democratic lieutenant governors right now. And something that people often aren't aware of um is that Democratic lieutenant governors are the most diverse group of elected officials in the country. 85% are women or people of color.
01:06.49
Kevin Holst
And we've seen that our lieutenant governors go on to become Governors, senators, I think Virginia is the obviously best example of this where you have Don Beyer now serving in the House, Doug Wilder, who's the lieutenant governor, then the first elected black governor in the country.
01:23.34
Kevin Holst
Tim Kaine served as lieutenant governor, the governor and senator. So we really like to think of Democratic lieutenant governors as the Democratic Party's bench.
01:31.32
Sam Shirazi
You mentioned some of the other organizations within the Democratic Party. you know How do you coordinate with, let's say, the national Dems at the Democratic National Committee and then the state Democratic parties and then the local Democratic parties?
01:44.08
Kevin Holst
Yeah, by virtue of the position, we have a close working relationship with the Democratic Governors Association. The position of lieutenant governor is elected differently depending on the state. There are a lot like Virginia where it's completely separate elected position and we are responsible for supporting the nominee on our own. But then in the Midwest, there tends to be the selection process where the governor handpicks the lieutenant governor. So we will often work in support of the gubernatorial ticket with the Democratic Governors Association.
02:18.26
Kevin Holst
thing that we've been really excited about with Ken Martin's new chairship is that he intends to help bridge you know lines of communication between the federal and state committees, which hasn't always been the case. you know Federal and state often speaks languages that aren't mutually intelligible. And so it's looking great as we look ahead to 2025, 2026 and beyond to make sure that we are all fully aligned to help Democrats up and down the ballot.
02:49.05
Sam Shirazi
And you you mentioned a little earlier that, you know, the lieutenant governors play an important role and and that often the people who are lieutenant governors make it to a higher office. And one thing that I think in Virginia I've noticed is people, for the most part, if they know there's an election this year, they know there's a governor's race, but they often don't know about anything down ballot.
03:11.42
Sam Shirazi
The lieutenant governor's doesn't get as much attention, obviously, as the governor's race, at least for the general election. How do you get people to care about the down ballot races and in your case, specifically the lieutenant governor's race?
03:23.46
Kevin Holst
I think there's a lot of education with voters, activists, donors on the importance of down ballot. This is something that Republicans have done really well. They focused in the 90s and the 2000s, early 2010s on down ballot because they recognize that down ballot races help build power.
03:44.08
Kevin Holst
And it was really to our detriment in 2010, 2014, where Democrats were wiped out in many states because we had not focused on down ballot enough and really building the party's bench. And so I think since...
04:00.06
Kevin Holst
2016 in the trump era many people have started to wake up to how important down ballot and specifically state races down ballot and the importance of that you know federal elections are always something that are seen as pretty sexy by national observers and there's always going to be people who are wondering about the jockeying for control of the House or Senate. But if we look to things that tangibly change people's lives very quickly, the most personally felt and quick acting change is felt at the state and local level for a transformative piece of legislation to pass Congress.
04:37.11
Kevin Holst
If it can even pass these days, you often see very long implementation times. People don't feel the effects of things that happen on the fur level very quickly.
04:47.59
Kevin Holst
And state government that can change within a matter of weeks. If some states are required to balance their budgets every year, and if you are in a short session like Virginia, where you have 30 to 45 days, depending on the year, to enact new laws, those are felt pretty immediately because that's in statute.
05:06.55
Kevin Holst
The Lt governor in Virginia is a particularly important um elected official in 2025 because, as we know the Virginia Senate is not up for reelection this year. that we It won't be until 2027 for us to expand our majority in the state Senate. And while having one-seat majority, the lieutenant governor is both the presiding officer and tie-breaking vote in the Senate.
05:30.30
Kevin Holst
And we saw how transformative that was with Medicaid expansion in Virginia that was done by the Lt governor's tie-breaking vote. And as we've seen recently with health challenges with different members, you know we are all human. We don't know when there's going to be a sickness, an absence or something unexpected happening.
05:48.84
Kevin Holst
So in order to ensure that future Governor Spanberger is going to be able to help pass her priorities, it's going to be on the Lt governor to make sure that these are sharpened through the legislature and that if there's any contentious votes which end up in a tie because as we know republicans have no incentive to work with the democrat governor in 2025 or 2026 it will be on the 10 governor to be that really key tie-breaking vote and as we think through you know passing the codification of abortion protections as we think through any piece of progressive legislation. It's going to be on the Lt governor to ensure that that gets across the finish line. And that's something that really resonates with people.
06:34.09
Sam Shirazi
And in terms of Virginia this year, you you laid out some of the issues that might come up in the lieutenant governor's race. What is your organization doing in the race itself? I know we have to wait for the nominees on the Democratic side, but what is your plan for this year in Virginia?
06:51.11
Kevin Holst
We are going to make a record-breaking investment in Virginia. The DLGA was actually... Part of the impetus for its beginning was due to the 2017 Lt governor's race in Virginia. We saw the Republican state leadership committee spend a million dollars to try to win the Lt governor's seat. And so in 2018, group of Lt governors seeing that got together and said, we need to ensure that Democrats have that same level of support.
07:20.94
Kevin Holst
We invested so about a million dollars in 2021, but we intend to spend up to $2 million dollars in 2025 to flip the Lt governor's office from red to blue because we know how important it will be to actually pass legislation to affect change in Virginians' lives. and This is an important office that, as we've seen, people go on to higher office. Winsome Sears has been Lt governor for the past four years, and she's now the Republican gubernatorial nominee. And so if we want to ensure that in 2029 Democrats are in the strongest position possible, we need to ensure that Democrats sweep all three statewide offices. And Lt governor is a key office in that.
08:05.08
Sam Shirazi
And right now there's a Democratic primary for lieutenant governor and there are six candidates running on the Democratic side. And I wonder what is your organization's role in the primary?
08:15.74
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, there's there's sometimes talk about, you know, the National Party coming in, picking a favorite. I don't think that's happening this year in Virginia. I think most people both at the state and federal level are letting the lieutenant governor primary play out. What what are you looking for or or are you just kind of waiting to see how the primary shakes out?
08:34.85
Kevin Holst
We are watching the primary closely and we have spoken with and are in regular communication with all the candidates, but it's up to the voters of Virginia to decide who their nominee will be. We know that any of the nominees will be infinitely better than John Reed as lieutenant governor and whomever Virginian voters decide, we are going to be their strongest partner, ally and advocate from day one.
09:01.29
Kevin Holst
So we are in close communication with all the campaigns, but we do not put our finger on the scales at all. We have a strict neutrality policy in this primary.
09:11.47
Sam Shirazi
I'll get to John Reed in a little bit, but I did want to ask about the current lieutenant governor in Virginia, who is Winsome Sears. And I think a lot of people, you know, didn't necessarily pay attention to that race in 2021. And she was swept in when Glenn Youngkin was able to win at the top of the ticket. um How do you think her role specifically as lieutenant governor, the current lieutenant governor in Virginia will play in the governor's race this year?
09:34.03
Kevin Holst
Well, she has certainly taken some ah ah positions which are just completely out of step with Virginians. I mean, we saw in this past week where she's constitutionally required to sign laws that passed the Virginia state legislature. She said that she was morally opposed to marriage equality. She voted against protecting contraception that was tied vote in the state Senate. um She's against abortion protections. She is against worker protections. And so the track record that she's assembled by both being publicly against certain policies and then when she's empowered to vote on the policies, voting the wrong way is going to hurt her in this gubernatorial election. We feel great about
10:19.90
Kevin Holst
Abigail Spanberger and her ability to articulate to Virginians that Winsome Sears is just out of step and too extreme for the state. And I think Winsome Sears' record, once voters learn more about it, is going to be very troubling to them.
10:33.33
Sam Shirazi
And this is kind of a random question before I get to the Republican nominee. But do you know, is there you mentioned that in the past, Republicans have spent for the lieutenant governor's race. Is there a Republican equivalent to your organization or is it just the RNC might be spending money in the race?
10:49.74
Kevin Holst
There is a consolidated down-ballot organization called the RSLC, which has the AG state legislative and lieutenant governors under their umbrella. So they spent heavily in 2017.
11:03.93
Kevin Holst
They spent for Winsome Sears in 2021. We will see what they in 2025.
11:10.61
Sam Shirazi
And well, speaking about 2025 in Virginia, the lieutenant governor's race. So the Republicans already have their nominee. I wanted to just ask a few questions about that. And obviously there's been a lot of things going on on the Republican side.
11:21.97
Sam Shirazi
I guess first, you know, most people, and I don't want to assume for you, but I think most Democrats were thinking, you know, Pat Harity would be the Republican nominee. Obviously he had to drop out due to health reasons. What's it like being on the other side where,
11:37.59
Sam Shirazi
you know you're You're thinking, all right, we're going to be facing this guy in all likelihood, and all of a sudden it shifts to someone else.
11:43.81
Kevin Holst
Yeah, I wasn't convinced that Pat Haredy would necessarily win the nomination. I knew obviously he's a strong contender. He had outraised John Reed. But, you know, Republicans, primary voters in different states have chosen nontraditional candidates. We've seen the rise of media personalities win Republican primaries, especially in very low turnout primaries. Obviously, we don't have a primary for governor on either side. So if you are turning out in a down ballot primary, you're probably a highly informed and a highly motivated voter. And if you had been listening to John Reed on conservative talk radio for years and years, you've
12:23.06
Kevin Holst
as a Republican voter, might be more inclined to vote for him. So we were watching the primary closely. i will never know how it would have turned out. I wasn't convinced that Hardy would have been the nominee. um Obviously, when he dropped out, we were surprised. had heard some rumblings about his health issues. And obviously he made the right decision for himself and his family to focus on that.
12:46.63
Kevin Holst
But it gives us more time to be able to focus on whom we're going to face in November and everything that we have learned about John Reed. We know it's completely out of step with Virginians. He's compared abortion to slavery. He has said that it's time to throw out public education and replace it with a voucher system. So it's It's one where while we do not have a nominee yet, and we are able to focus our attention on educating voters as to why John Reed would be too extreme for Virginia.
13:21.35
Sam Shirazi
And I did want to ask about the the incident that happened or or the the drama. and And I wanted to get to his record and some of the more substantive issues in a second, but kind of similar, what was it like being on the other side? So obviously, just to give the listeners a quick context, after John Reed became the Republican nominee, Governor Glenn Youngkin gave him a phone call saying, could you please drop out because of some you know alleged online pictures he had posted or, you know, on an account that may have been associated with him.
13:54.05
Sam Shirazi
John Reed denied that was him. it was his account. He stayed in the race. It sounds like that incident has kind of ended and and the Republicans have accepted that John Reed will be the lieutenant governor nominee.
14:06.03
Sam Shirazi
What was it like being on the other side where, you know, you're probably hearing the news about Governor Youngkin calling at the same time the rest of us heard about it?
14:13.84
Kevin Holst
It was we had John Reed had been posting about Republicans claiming they had incriminating things on him for about a week and a half prior to Glenn Youngkin's phone call. So we had been poking around and we hadn't found anything.
14:32.06
Kevin Holst
Super problematic. When the Tumblr page was brought to our attention, it had been pulled down, but we were able to go on the Internet archive to see some past pages over the years. And it seems to be just a blatant homophobic attack on him by Governor Yunkin. And he sort of got over his sails here. i think what's interesting is how quickly the MAGA and Republican grassroots rallied around John Reed and Glenn Yunkin basically had to admit defeat and his quest to get John Reed to drop out. And
15:11.56
Kevin Holst
So I think that was more telling than anything. It's always nice as a Democrat to see Glenn Youngkin's 2028 dreams fade even further than the hundreds of miles away that they were from reality. um But it From an operating standpoint, you know, we we have been focused that despite all this, we were going to continue to try to educate people on John Reed's positions, because as it seemed that he would stay in the race. is something where Republicans were united against him and it's our job to.
15:46.58
Kevin Holst
remind Virginia voters that he was cheering the federal layoffs which is affecting northern Virginia and 40 of Virginia's economy that he said abortions like slavery that he wanted to shut down public schools is against any limit on guns and so for us you know it was was a interesting couple of days but we were always very laser focused on how we're going to educate voters on the issues
16:11.30
Sam Shirazi
Well, it it sounds like you have some good message discipline on your side. i mean, the reason I say that is I think oftentimes when something like this happens and you see John Reed doing this because I think he's he's he knows how to worked the media because he's been on radio.
16:26.60
Sam Shirazi
I think he's kind of making this about how he was being targeted and he kind of overcome the establishment Republicans. And and he kind of wants to run on that. and And, you know, maybe he'll he'll change his tune. But how do you get people to focus on the stakes and the substance? Because I think some of the comments that I've heard from a lot of Democrats after 2024 is the media and social media and everything.
16:51.74
Sam Shirazi
They want to focus on you know all this campaign stuff, the drama, that this, that, and and there isn't a lot of focus on the stakes. And it sounds like you're trying to do that. How do you try to break through and and talk about what these elections actually matter for
17:06.53
Kevin Holst
Well, I think it's important for those of us who work in politics and elections to remove ourselves from our own bubbles. I know that for some of us who live and breathe elections and politics, that we are just so vastly different than the average voter who's more concerned with politics.
17:26.11
Kevin Holst
Am I going to get my kids to school on time? What is traffic like? What are the price of groceries? Are we going to be able to take a vacation this year? So while it was a pretty dramatic couple of days and week, it took really a week for it to break through and regional and national media. It tended to be more political blogs, which were focusing on this. And I would be shocked if we were to poll the state right now, if 15% of the state knew that there was all this drama between the governor and the lieutenant governor nominee.
17:59.45
Kevin Holst
So I think the first that people are going to hear about John Reed, unless you are living and breathing politics, is really going to be through paid political communication or when a canvasser knocks on your door, whether that be pro-Reed or a Democratic person communicating to you.
18:19.15
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, I think that's a good point that, you know, we're very aware of these issues. But often when I talk to voters about the Virginia elections, they don't quite know that there is even an election going on or what's on the
18:33.20
Kevin Holst
if you look at early vote right now, it is very low. People in places like Richmond and Hampton Roads, where you have some delegate seats that have contested primaries or where you have down ballot candidates that come from those areas is a bit higher. But we look to Northern Virginia and turnout right now is extremely low because people don't know there's an election right now because candidates haven't been communicating yet.
18:58.14
Sam Shirazi
terms of the thinking about the election, trying to get people engaged, you know what are some of the issues that you want to be talking to voters about and or that you you think voters care about this year in Virginia?
19:11.56
Kevin Holst
Well, the havoc that Donald Trump and Elon Musk are... are causing to Virginia's economy is going to be paramount. I mean, one third of Northern Virginia is a federal government employee or contractor. 40% of the state's GDP comes from the federal government. And when you are a Republican in 2025, running on the same, you know, running as part of Donald Trump's party, when he is trying to, you just inflict chaotic mass layoffs without any strategic goals rather than to inflict pain on people who are a part of the federal government. That is very hard run on. And we have nominees like Winsome Sears who says, oh you lost your job? but Boo Find a new one. You have people like John Reed saying, does it hurt? Yeah, but we got to do it. Trump is the way.
20:09.08
Kevin Holst
And so Democrats even... Outside of the election, you know we have delegates, our congresspeople, who have been holding job fairs and trying to create resources for federal government employees who have been affected by these mass layoffs. and so Democrats are focused on ensuring that Virginians have good paying jobs and are trying to help Virginians navigate the chaos of Donald Trump and Elon Musk's economy. and
20:39.79
Kevin Holst
Winsome Sears and John Reed are going to side with Trump over Virginians, like in every single situation. John Reed being a radio host and a prolific poster on Facebook says he never says these things. Just read his own words, listen to his own words where he's cheering on these layoffs.
20:57.37
Kevin Holst
Winsome Sears cheering on the layoffs saying you should stop complaining if Donald Trump fired you from a job that you've held for 25 years and had provided a great middle class income for you.
21:08.56
Kevin Holst
And so we're going to focus on the economy. We're going to focus on the cost of living. And we're also going to focus on protecting the rights of Virginians in the face of when some serious Donald Trump, John Reed and Elon Musk trying to strip away reproductive freedom, trying to strip away worker protections, trying to make it so that the ultra rich are able to do whatever they want at the expense of the economic livelihoods of the average Virginians. And it's a message that is going to resonate because people are feeling it. You know, when Donald Trump says that you should tell your kids that they're not going to get great Christmas presents and you don't really need a vacation and you have Republicans running on that same message, it's a terrible message for them to run on.
21:54.31
Sam Shirazi
Well, I appreciate you taking the time to kind of explain what what your organization is going to be doing this year in Virginia. I did want to ask, um um if you have a chance to just give a little bit about your background, you know, what made you interested in politics and why you took on this role.
22:09.71
Kevin Holst
i I've been interested in politics and government since I can remember. I've always been a big believer in the ability of government to do good in people's lives. I was raised by a single mom who was able to help provide for us due to her union job. also struggled with and ultimately passed away from addiction. And so knowing that I was always teetering on the brink of just you know collapse and seeing the ability for our country to help provide for people who just need a bit of a boost seeing that government is the most efficient and best way to help make that a reality. i
22:59.45
Kevin Holst
wanted to be a part of the solution to help make people's lives better. I had prior to taking this job at the DLGA, I'd been in the service to politics world where in 2018, I had worked with Congressman Seth Moulton and my old boss, Emily Cherniak.
23:15.21
Kevin Holst
Who was the founder of New Politics, to help create an initiative that we called Serve America, where we helped recruit, advise, and fundraise for some of the rock stars of 2018. Abigail Spanberger, Elaine Loria were some of our 2018 candidates, where we're able to raise about $10 million dollars collectively for 20 veteran candidates running for Congress, and we helped set the narrative of national security Democrats stepping up to fight Trump, which was a big theme in 2018.
23:42.77
Kevin Holst
And these were people that had a demonstrated history of country before party, service before self, and that really resonated with not just voters, but also the caucus. When we think about Trump's first impeachment, it was because of the op-ed that our candidates wrote saying we have dedicated our lives to the security of this country. And this is why we have to now initiate the impeachment of the president.
24:10.69
Kevin Holst
2018 was a very unique cycle. And I knew that you weren't always going to have people like Abigail Spanberger, who were rock stars that could step up and run for Congress without a long political network. And so we focused a lot on down ballot after that. We did state Senate, state rep, city councils, some other ah lower down-ballot statewide elections, and we're pretty successful. We worked throughout the country to help elect a new generation of leadership. And when I saw this opportunity with the DLGA pop up, I saw this as really a natural extension of the work that I had been doing to help build the Democratic Party's bench. Because like I said, you have 85% women or people of color in statewide positions. a lot of them were just entering their second term and needed some
25:00.68
Kevin Holst
Need some help develop their political networks to help them on the comms front, sharpen ah ah some policies for them. So I was excited to take the challenge and we've had a tremendous amount of growth and we're seeing now the success in 2024.
25:17.52
Kevin Holst
We're able to invest $2 million dollars to help flip the North Carolina lieutenant governor's election from red to blue is the first time Democrats had won that seat since 2008. And on the bench argument, if your listeners remember, the past two Republican nominees for governor in North Carolina had been the Republican lieutenant governor. So we are now...
25:37.69
Kevin Holst
Going to have a great time for Josh Stein's reelection in 2028 because Republicans will not have a statewide official with the gravitas that the previous lieutenant governors have had to be able to run against him.
25:49.15
Kevin Holst
Of course, he's still going to run very hard, but it's nice to know that you are going to have someone with lower name ID um against you. And like I said, we're looking at 2025 to make a substantial impact in Virginia to help flip this lieutenant governor seat from red to blue. And then as we look to 26, we have some of our rock star lieutenant governors who are running for governor, running for Senate, and we're going to have their back and you know help in our mission to build the Democratic Party's bench and support them along the way.
26:19.28
Sam Shirazi
Well, thank you for taking the time to come come on and talk to us. I think it's really interesting hearing what it's like to to be in that role and and ah ah try to influence the elections this year in Virginia. If there are Republicans who are in a similar role or want to come on the podcast, feel free to reach out. But I did appreciate getting a Democratic perspective on that. So last question, how can people find out more about your organization?
26:43.73
Kevin Holst
They can go to our website, demlgs.org. We are also on bluesky at demlgs.org. We are on Twitter at Democratic LGs. We are on Instagram at demlgs. And we are prolific in our...
27:03.40
Kevin Holst
promotion of our Lt governors. So check it out. We have some of the most exciting Democrats in the party today. And for all of your listeners who might be thinking, you know, when will the Democratic Party move on from octogenarians in our leadership, you'll be seeing a lot more of our LGs over the next two, four, six, eight years.
27:21.78
Sam Shirazi
Well, that is all very interesting and i appreciate you coming on again. So thanks again. And this is Federal Fallout. I'll see you next time.

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Episode 11: Sleeper Seats in the House of Delegates
10 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.51
Sam Shirazi
I'm Sam Shirazi and this is federal fallout the 2025 Virginia elections this episode, we will go over some of the sleeper races in the House of delegates more so on the democratic side. In terms of seats that they are trying to flip and the reason I'm doing this episode is because they have found candidates in all 100 races in the Virginia House of Delegates.
00:20.43
Sam Shirazi
So that means they're contesting every seat. Obviously, they're not going to win every seat, but I do think it shows that there are people willing to run this year in Virginia, even in seats that are very red.
00:35.28
Sam Shirazi
And you know conventional wisdom is that shows enthusiasm that the Democrats are able to find candidates. Now, does it guarantee that they're going to win? No, but I do think it's one thing to look at among many other factors.
00:48.21
Sam Shirazi
And another reason I wanted to do this is earlier I had done a podcast on the top battlegrounds in the Virginia House of Delegates, and I missed a few races I wanted to cover, and I just couldn't because I was covering so many other races.
01:03.86
Sam Shirazi
And one of them, the seat on the list of sleeper races that are most likely to flip, and again, i don't even think this is a sleeper race because the Democrats have said that they are targeting this seat, and I just failed to mention it on the last podcast, is is the 69th House District.
01:19.75
Sam Shirazi
But I think it's really interesting to talk about it on this podcast because in 2023, Democrats didn't even contest this seat. So it shows you that what happens when you don't contest seats is you you potentially miss out on flipping seats. Now, realistically, in 2023, I don't think the Democrats were going to win this seat.
01:37.00
Sam Shirazi
But in 2025, in a different political environment with a candidate, I do think there's a chance this seat flips. So this seat is in the Yorktown area ah ah in Hampton Roads, and it's right next to another district that's competitive that we talked about in the past, which is the 71st district.
01:56.42
Sam Shirazi
And the 69th district voted for Trump by less than one point. And the current incumbent is Chad Green. And as I said, in 2023, won... unopposed.
02:07.38
Sam Shirazi
The Democrats are running a candidate this time, and that is a local pediatrician. His name is Mark Downey. And I should have mentioned this district before because it's a less than one point Trump district. Democrats are targeting it. So I do think this is more of a true battleground district this year as opposed to a sleeper race. But I will talk about it this time just to show you kind of the importance of contesting races and not contesting them.
02:32.78
Sam Shirazi
So the district, I think it's competitive this year for a couple of reasons. One, just the fact that, you know, this year in Virginia is probably going to lean towards the Democrats. At least that's what it's looking like right now. Obviously, nothing's guaranteed, but but that's what it's looking like.
02:47.52
Sam Shirazi
And also the district has big military bases on it. And so if you're seeing some impacts of the federal government changes, this is the type of district lot of military people in the district could be feeling that hit from Washington, DC.
03:01.04
Sam Shirazi
But I should note one thing. And I visited this district recently because I wanted to go to Yorktown Beach and see it for myself. No, I'm kind of kidding. But I did go to Yorktown Beach, which is a beautiful beach. If you're ever in Yorktown or in that area, go see the beach. I think they've done a really good job with that beach.
03:23.84
Sam Shirazi
But if you look across the river, There's the York River. There's a bridge that goes over from Yorktown to Gloucester. And Gloucester is a much redder part of Virginia than across the river in York, and the York County. And York County is roughly kind of a leans a little bit towards the Republicans, but roughly a 50-50 county, as is much of that area. And that's why it's a competitive seat, obviously.
03:48.78
Sam Shirazi
But about 10% of the district are is is across the river in Gloucester, and Gloucester is much redder than the rest of the district. So long story short, I often spend a lot of time thinking about these little nuances in the districts. It's similar to the House District 57 in the Henrico area where Henrico super blue, but it has this red part of Goochland. This is similar where you know most of the district is about 50-50, and then there's this little red part of the district. So It really comes down to, you know, can the Democrats overcome the redness in Gloucester either because of the federal fallout or because it's just such a landslide at the top of the ticket.
04:24.27
Sam Shirazi
Now that's assuming a lot of things. And I should say for this district and the other districts I'm going to be talking about, you know, if it's a close race, I mean, they're not going to flip because these are the types of districts that it really requires a blue wave for there to be a flip in November. And so it's possible that none of these seats flip.
04:41.44
Sam Shirazi
It's possible maybe one flip. It's also possible on a good night that many of them start flipping, especially if we're starting to see a double digit Democratic win at the top of the ticket, which again, I think is you know not out of the realm of possibility. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just saying theoretically it could happen in November, given historical patterns of how these elections turn turn out and that there's a big swing against the party in the White House.
05:08.07
Sam Shirazi
so I spent a little bit more time on the 69th district because I think it's obviously the one that's most likely the flip of the ones I'm going to be talking about today. I will talk about some other districts. I'll go through them a little bit more quickly because I think, you know, these are pretty reached districts for Democrats. But I wanted to mention them because obviously they are contesting all 100 seats.
05:28.00
Sam Shirazi
And what are the sleeper races that could be flipping this year in Virginia? And I'm going to basically focus on the districts that Trump won by less than 10 percent, because realistically, I think the maximum that Democrats are going to get are the single digit Trump seats.
05:43.57
Sam Shirazi
OK, so I will talk about a pair of districts in the Virginia Beach beach area. The first one is House District 99. The current incumbent is Republican Anne Farrell Tata.
05:56.43
Sam Shirazi
And the Democratic nominee is Kat Porterfield. And this is a district that Trump won by about five points in November. However, in 2023, Tata defeated Porterfield by about 15 points. So we're going to see a rematch. And you saw, obviously, in 2023 that this was not a close race at all, even though in 2024 it was single-digit Trump seat.
06:22.20
Sam Shirazi
And I want to talk about this district and its neighboring district, House District 100 in tandem. So let me just talk about House District 100 right now that the current incumbent Republican is Rob Bloxham.
06:34.42
Sam Shirazi
And the Democrats are still trying to finalize their nominee. There is someone who has filed on the Democratic side. Rocco Debilis, I'm not sure if he'll end up being the nominee because i I've heard maybe someone else will try to also be the nominee. But long story short, I think the Democrats are going to be able to find a nominee in that district.
06:52.41
Sam Shirazi
I would say that the district is, again, one of these ones that would be potentially competitive. it was less than five points Trump win in 2024 in this district.
07:03.43
Sam Shirazi
But in 2023, the incumbent Bloxham won by almost 20 points. And so you're seeing these districts where there's a huge difference between the 2023 number and the 2024 number. Why? Because I think there was a lot of voters in these districts that feel comfortable voting for the Republican Party at the state level, but for whatever reason, they're not comfortable voting for Donald Trump in 2024.
07:27.44
Sam Shirazi
And the reason for that, They have a decent amount of college-educated voters who are traditionally Republicans. We've seen across the country college-educated voters becoming more Democratic.
07:37.93
Sam Shirazi
So you're seeing in these districts, they're starting to trend towards the Democrats because these college-educated voters are moving towards the Democrats and away from the Republicans. And I think, again, if there's a huge backlash either in the suburbs or there's a backlash to all the federal cuts and that's hitting Hampton Roads particularly hard, these are the types of districts on a good night. If there's a huge wave, Democrats might be able to flip because, again, it's single-digit Trump seat.
08:04.19
Sam Shirazi
I think the one challenge Democrats are going to have if they're trying to flip these seats is that there's a this is the type of area where you can see ticket splitting, where maybe someone votes for Spanberger at the top of the ticket, but they like their local delegate. And so the Republican delegates will overperform the top of the ticket.
08:20.57
Sam Shirazi
And so while Democrats might have a shot here, particularly if there's a big swing in Hampton Roads, I wouldn't necessarily count on these seats flipping. Now we will go over towards Southside, Virginia, in a seat that will have an open race because the incumbent has retired. So incumbent Republican Danny Marshall, he has decided to retire.
08:43.80
Sam Shirazi
And this district voted for Trump by about eight points. And again, this was a district that the Democrats didn't oppose in 2023. So we don't really have a sense of how we would have voted in 2023. I think it's pretty likely that yeah even if a Democrat ran in 2023, the incumbent Republican still would have won this district
09:01.17
Sam Shirazi
But this time there will be a Democratic nominee because there are two people filing for this seat on the Democratic side. So there will be a primary and there are two Republicans as well running. So I will talk more about the primary in my episode about the primary, which I promise one day i will get to.
09:18.82
Sam Shirazi
But this is an interesting district. So it is based in Danville. which itself, Danville City, is is somewhat Democratic, but the surrounding rural areas are pretty Republican.
09:31.25
Sam Shirazi
The district is about 40% African American. And so that's a pretty high number for the Democrats to start with. you know They're going to get a pretty high number And so going to talk about the majority district.
09:44.53
Sam Shirazi
the problem for them is that it's a majority white district this part of virginia has a lot of racialized votinging. It's similar to other parts of the South where most African-American voters are Democrats, most white voters are Republicans.
09:58.70
Sam Shirazi
And so you're going need some crossover from the white community for the Democrats to able to flip the seat. Again, perhaps if the environment's right and the Democrats are doing better with white working class voters, this is the type of seat that could flip.
10:11.50
Sam Shirazi
But again, it's it's a pretty tall order. But keep in mind, though, that Democrats didn't compete in it 2023, and this year they will be competing in it.
10:21.14
Sam Shirazi
I did want to talk about another Southside district. This is House District 83. The current incumbent is Republican Otto Wachsman. This is roughly a Trump plus eight district in 2024.
10:34.90
Sam Shirazi
But in 2023, the incumbent Republican, he won by almost 17 points. And so you see, again, a type of district where there was a lot of difference between 2023 and 2024.
10:49.53
Sam Shirazi
I would say the reason for the difference in this district is a little bit different. So again, this is a district with a lot of African-American voters, about 41% African-American. I think in 2024, the Democrats did a better job turning out those voters Obviously, on the Democratic side, at the top top of the ticket, you had an African-American woman on the ticket. And so I think that helped Democrats get more of the African-American vote out in 2024.
11:14.54
Sam Shirazi
I think in 2023, that was something the Democrats could have done better in this seat and across Virginia. And I think it's a little bit of an open question this year in 2025. What does the African-American turnout look like?
11:26.70
Sam Shirazi
You know, there's a possibility that either one or two slots on the Democratic ticket with the lieutenant governor and the attorney general spot, um could be African American nominees for the Democrats.
11:38.62
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, the Republicans have an African American woman at the top of the ticket. And so there's a lot of interesting questions about what the turnout will look like specifically in that community. And a lot of these seats that have and not a majority African American, but a decent amount of African American voters.
11:57.41
Sam Shirazi
I think the question will become can the Democrats turn them out? And in theory, if there's higher turnout than expected among the African-American community, and maybe the working class white vote falls because Trump's not on the ticket, which we've seen in other places where these low propensity Trump voters don't come out in non-presidential elections, the Danville district and then this other Southside district, both of those potentially could flip just depending on the dynamics of turnout And, you know, I think it's still realistically pretty hard for the Democrats to win this seat. But I just wanted to mention some of the dynamic dynamics. And I should say this, you know often in this podcast, I will be focusing on Northern Virginia, Richmond area, Hampton Roads.
12:38.05
Sam Shirazi
You know, you talk about the suburbs and college educated voters and and all this. I think it's important to keep in mind, Virginia has a lot of different parts to it and there are different dynamics. So Southside Virginia,
12:49.20
Sam Shirazi
These two districts, their voting patterns are much more similar to other parts of the South. I think, you know, it's just a different type of district and you have to keep that in mind. And so while I think potentially the numbers are there for the Democrats, I just think, and as you've seen in other parts of the South, it's hard for the Democrats to win seats if it's majority white and most of the white voters there are working class voters who were Trump voters. and And typically it's hard for the Democrats, especially these days, where they're not doing well with white working class voters to flip those types of seats.
13:24.05
Sam Shirazi
All right. So I will talk about a couple other districts that are kind of interesting in that they're all similar. So they're all college towns in their own way. And so I will start off with the 52nd House District.
13:35.94
Sam Shirazi
This is in the Lynchburg area. The current incumbent is Wendell Walker.
13:40.75
Sam Shirazi
This is a district that Trump won roughly by nine points. and However, keep in mind the current incumbent, Walker, only won this district by about nine points in 2023.
13:51.95
Sam Shirazi
And so that's kind of interesting because it tells you that this type of district... you know, so as we saw in some of the other districts, there were huge swings between 2023 and 2024, but this district didn't see much of a swing and it was basically the same.
14:07.07
Sam Shirazi
And I just think there's some interesting dynamics going on. So Lynchburg is kind of a a medium-sized city. So you have more of a professional class in that in that city.
14:17.66
Sam Shirazi
It's also home to Liberty University. I think a lot of the Republican voters, at least among young people in that city, are students at Liberty. It's kind of an open question mark. Do those students show up in a governor's race this year? And I think the incumbent, Walker, needs some of those students to turn out for him.
14:37.84
Sam Shirazi
And so I i just think and it it just has a lot of interesting dynamics for a district like this. And i think, again, On a good night, the Democrats have a chance to to flip this seat, particularly if we're seeing a decent amount of Democratic turnout and then the Republican turnout isn't there.
14:56.21
Sam Shirazi
Okay, let's go to another college district. This is House District 40, and this is in the Salem-Roanoke area. The current incumbent is Republican Joe McNamara.
15:07.74
Sam Shirazi
The district voted again for Trump by about nine points and 2023,
15:14.96
Sam Shirazi
The Republican incumbent won by about 19 points. And the reason I say it's a college town. So Roanoke College technically is not in the city of Roanoke. It is based in the city of Salem, which is right next to Roanoke.
15:30.34
Sam Shirazi
So even though Salem does have this college in it, Salem is generally known to be a little bit more of a red-leaning town as compared to Roanoke. So Roanoke City is a blue city. Salem's known for being more of a red city.
15:43.57
Sam Shirazi
But obviously you have a college town vibe to Salem to a certain extent. And so I think that's keeping this district competitive. And we'll see again, are are the Democrats able to to flip a seat like this in November?
15:58.45
Sam Shirazi
I will go out to one more college town for our tour of the college towns of Virginia, or at least the red-leaning college town districts in Virginia. So this is House District 34 in the Harrisonburg area, which is home to James Madison University.
16:14.37
Sam Shirazi
The current incumbent is Republican Tony Wilt. The district was about a seven-point Trump district in 2024. 2023, in twenty twenty three The current incumbent Republican won by about 13 points.
16:28.45
Sam Shirazi
In this district, it's just straight you know college town versus rural. So if you think about Harrisonburg, where James Madison University is located, ah ah blue college town, lot of students.
16:40.15
Sam Shirazi
The area around it in the Shenandoah Valley is beautiful. It's a red area. And so it's just a matter of which side is able to turn out more of their base. And I think the interesting thing about this district is the Democrats' chances really come down to if they're able to either register students or get students to show up on Election Day and same day register and get the students to vote. Because James Madison University, it's a pretty big university, basically.
17:06.30
Sam Shirazi
You would think that the students there tend to lean towards the Democrats. And so I think if the Democrats are able to mobilize students, this is the seat type of seat that could flip.
17:16.81
Sam Shirazi
And I should note make a note of this So we talked about three of these college towns that could flip in the reach districts for the Democrats and two of the top battleground districts in the 41st district and then the 71st district district ah where Virginia Tech and William & Mary are located. Those are really going to be top top targets for Democrats.
17:38.10
Sam Shirazi
And again, students are going to be really important if they're going to flip those two seats. And I think, you know, in 2024, part of the story was President Trump was able to do better with college students and students and younger people in general than I think most people were expected because generally people think, okay, young people, they tend to be Democrats, but President Trump was able to do better.
18:00.43
Sam Shirazi
And I think a lot of those voters were maybe not super engaged and may not have been paying super close attention and maybe voted on the economy or issues like that. And I think to the extent we're seeing voters move away from Trump,
18:14.10
Sam Shirazi
I think those are the type of voters that are going to move away or voters who are really sensitive on the economy. They might have said, well, let's see what President Trump can do. And now obviously they're seeing maybe some of the effects of the federal cuts and the effects of the tariffs. And so those voters might turn away from the Republicans.
18:32.77
Sam Shirazi
And so if we take a step back and look at all these districts, which I would say are red leaning districts that the Democrats would really need a good night to be able to flip. you you know How would they be able to do that? Who are they going to be able to to either s flip or or how how is it going to be that they're going to be able to flip these red districts? I think there's two possibilities, as I mentioned earlier.
18:53.59
Sam Shirazi
One possibility is that their turnout is really just way through the roof and they get closer to 2024 turnout. And then the Republican turnout is way down for whatever reason. And so You basically just have a bunch of Democrats showing up and the Republicans don't show up. And then so a seat that you don't think was going to flip starts to flip. And I think the other possibility or the thing that could happen in combination with that is that the Democrats are able to.
19:19.63
Sam Shirazi
The Democrats are able to convince some of these Trump voters to switch and vote for the Democrats in this election, not just at the governor's level, but all the way down the ticket. I think relatively that's going to be pretty rare, particularly among, you know, voters that would turn out in a governor but governor's election, because most of the time people these days, it's just hard to get people to switch their votes.
19:43.30
Sam Shirazi
But in some of these districts, if you have a decent Democratic turnout and you flip some of the people who voted for Trump last November, it doesn't take a whole lot to flip the the district. And, you know, again, i think President Trump, among some of his core base, he still has that support.
19:59.36
Sam Shirazi
Where you're seeing his approval rating go down is typically with voters who were sensitive on the economy or maybe relatively less engaged. He President Trump did well with those voters.
20:10.87
Sam Shirazi
And you're seeing those voters turn away from President Trump now that you know some of the economic hits that have been happening recently, and obviously President Trump is taking the blame for that.
20:22.32
Sam Shirazi
So I don't want to belabor the point. I do think there's a ah scenario where the Democrats are able to flip at least one of these sleeper seats. But Now, you may be saying, OK, you're kind of getting everyone's hopes up on the Democratic side. You're saying, oh, the Democrats can flip all these seats. I'm not saying that. I just think that you have to think about the possibility.
20:42.35
Sam Shirazi
And the reason I say that is both 2017 and 2021. So 2017, 2017, the first Trump administration, Democrats were hoping to flip, you know, maybe a few seats here and there. They were already in a deep hole in the House of Delegates.
20:57.05
Sam Shirazi
The formal Democratic Party only focused on a few seats and we were hoping to maybe on a good night flip maybe 10 seats. But the Democrats got a real big blue wave in 2017 and they were able to flip 15 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. And I think that was a huge surprise to everyone. And I think that was also ah big wake up call for the Republicans that they were struggling in the suburbs. Most of these districts were in the suburbs where the Democrats were able to flip it.
21:23.80
Sam Shirazi
And so I just think you You know, you never know what's going to happen in the House of Delegates, particularly if there are big swings between elections. And the other election I should talk about on the other side is 2021 when the Republicans got a victory. And I think for most of that election, Democrats didn't think that the House of Delegates, which they were in the majority in, was at much risk.
21:44.100
Sam Shirazi
But then all of a sudden at the end, a few seats flipped that the Democrats weren't expecting to flip. And the Republicans were able to get the majority in the Virginia House of Delegates in 2021. So I do think in these potentially wave elections, there are circumstances where the a lot of seats flip.
22:02.01
Sam Shirazi
There are unexpected gains on one side. And i think we have to be open to the possibility of that. Realistically, I don't think that's going to happen on the Republican side. Just the reality is, know, I'm not saying it's impossible for the Republicans to win the governor's race, but Even if the Republicans win the governor's race, I mean, we kind of know which seats are going to flip on the Republican side. I think it's going to really be unlikely that they're going to be able to flip more than maybe on a good night, three seats.
22:30.67
Sam Shirazi
Whereas on the republican on the Democratic side, I mean, the the range is so big. You could see Democrats flipping one or two seats if it's a close election. to potentially flipping up to 10 seats or more if it's a really landslide type election.
22:46.77
Sam Shirazi
And at this stage, we really don't know. Unfortunately, we haven't gotten many Virginia polls. We don't get ah have have as a good sense of where things are going. The Trump approval looks like it's gone negative and it's especially going to be negative in Virginia. So you would think that leads towards Democrats having a good night.
23:04.39
Sam Shirazi
And again, what does a good night mean the Democrats? Does that mean they win by two points? I mean, but they'll take it. A win's a win.
23:11.58
Sam Shirazi
Do they win by five points, which I think is a solid win? Or the Democrats at the top of ticket with Abigail Spamberger get closer to a 10 point win and a 10 point win. I mean, that's the type of territory where these and unexpected seats could flip.
23:25.25
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, it's just so hard to tell right now. And I wanted to use the example of this year. We don't have many examples, you use the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
23:35.42
Sam Shirazi
Wisconsin obviously was very close in 2024. The Republicans with Donald Trump were able to win it at the presidential level by a about one point. But that then again, on the Senate side, the Democrats were able to win it in with Tammy Baldwin. So Wisconsin was very close in 2024, kind of on knife's edge.
23:54.89
Sam Shirazi
But then the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, we all thought, okay, it's going to be close. It seems like the Republicans are spending a lot of money here. and it's getting a lot of attention. And then the Democrats win that Supreme court race by about 10 points.
24:07.33
Sam Shirazi
And so I do think both the Democrats and Republicans have to think about the possibility that this won't necessarily be a super close election. And how do they deal with that? What seats are they going to compete in?
24:18.62
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, if you're a Democrat, you don't want to get your hopes up. You don't want to assume you're to You're going to want to play it like it's going to be close. Cause I think that's the safe way to run a campaign. If you're a Republican, you know you never want to say, oh, we're going to lose. We're to throw in the towel. Now you you still have to kind of have hope that you're going to be able to win and that perhaps you're going to be able to save all these seats that you have in the House of Delegates. But you also have to be realistic and say, look, it's getting kind of dicey. yeah These incumbents, we can't really save them. Let's focus on these other incumbents that have a more realistic shot.
24:52.61
Sam Shirazi
And the favorite word that you know you hear in midterms, more so for the US House of Representatives is triaging, you know, this race is is a lost cause. Let's just kind stop competing there.
25:05.93
Sam Shirazi
I don't know if the Republicans are going to do that. I think it's very hard to tell. I think theyre they have a lot of incumbents. They want to protect them. the The danger is if you start focusing on the incumbents that seem unlikely to win, you're going to potentially leave these other incumbents out in a in in more Republican districts, but the ones that could be competitive, you could leave them out to dry. so It's hard to tell. i think it's way too early. i didn't want to speculate too much. I just wanted to flag some of these other seats that could be competitive on an interesting night for the Democrats.
25:36.72
Sam Shirazi
Again, way too early to tell. I wanted to do this podcast because I probably won't be spending too much time on these districts in the future. So I did want to just mention them right now. And I also but just wanted to talk about how you know the Democrats have fielded 100 candidates in all the seats.
25:52.82
Sam Shirazi
And if you think about 2023, two of the districts I talked about, the Democrats didn't feel the candidate. So it just gives you a sense of, you know, what it can look like in a different cycle. Seats that you didn't think were going to go be competitive can all of a sudden be on the board, particularly if you have a candidate running. So anyways, I think there'll be a lot of interesting things to talk about this year in Virginia. These House of Delegates districts don't always get as much attention as the other ones, but I did want to mention them.
26:18.72
Sam Shirazi
So I hope everyone found that interesting. I will, I promise, do a podcast at some point on the House of Delegate primary. So I did want to wait a little bit closer to the primary date to do that. But that's also in the works. So anyways, I appreciate everyone listening. And this has been Federal Fallout.
26:36.02
Sam Shirazi
And I will join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Episode 10: David Ramadan Interview
3 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.95
Sam Shirazi
Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. Today, our guest is David Ramadan, a former Republican delegate.
00:12.13
Sam Shirazi
Thank you for joining me.
00:13.80
DR DR
Good to be with you, Sam. Thanks for having me.
00:16.32
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, so I wanted to have you on because you've had the experience of actually being a member of the House of Delegates. And I just wanted to, I guess, first question, ask you why you wanted to run for the House of Delegates and what it was like.
00:32.26
DR DR
It was the highest honor of my life. And it was my way of of public service for the Commonwealth and the country. I am an immigrant, Sam, who came here at the age of 19 with $2,000 in my pocket and a dream.
00:47.68
DR DR
I made it all in, in, in this Commonwealth and in this, in this great country. I did my undergraduate at George Mason, did my master's degree in Mason. I've been teaching in Mason for 20 some years.
01:00.53
DR DR
I was governor of McDonald's first appointee to the board and served two years on the board of the university. And, uh, I went through a presidential, uh, hire and hired a president for the university, did my doctorate Vanderbilt, but that came later after serving in office. So in 2011, after the redistricting of that year, a new seat opened up in the General Assembly.
01:29.08
DR DR
And I honestly had no plans for running. For 20 years prior to that, I was somebody who started with heavy accent, who went and volunteered on the Bush quail campaign and was told, just lick envelopes, don't answer the phone because the accent was heavy. And I said, okay, and did that and grew up to answering the phones, then to going out, putting out small signs and then the four by eight signs, and then started writing checks as I grew up in life and $5 checks and $50 checks, and then starting adding zeros to during the McDonald campaign, going all out and campaigning for
02:05.28
DR DR
You know, A.G. MacDonald at the time and became a policy advisor to him and held lot of events and and went out on the stump. And so grew up in life, 20 years of supporting the Republicans at the time from George Allen's 1993 gubernatorial campaign to the numerous Frank Wolf congressional campaigns, somebody who supported them and from donations to running ground activities to the entire Ramadan family manning it.
02:45.09
DR DR
numerous precincts on election day, and none of it was with the plan of running for office until 2011 when a new seat opened up in my area in eastern Loudoun, and the phone started ringing, and everybody that I had helped over the years said, it's time to run. And I was challenged really into it, because even then, it was a 60-plus percent democratic district.
03:12.26
DR DR
And I think it was Governor McDonald at the time who says, David, it's a 60 plus percent Democratic district. Can you think of anybody else who have the profile of being a successful immigrant who has been lecturing us for years on inclusion and and engagement of of the minority communities who can be competitive in this district who's a Republican besides you? And like, you know, so.
03:39.64
DR DR
It was okay, time to serve. Took five years out of my life, basically a year for the campaign and then two terms where I truly dedicated full-time time, effort and energy to public service.
03:54.54
DR DR
And it was my way of paying back the success that I had. I had brought in four brothers, mom and dad, grandma, uncles, uncles. Everybody living their American dream. Everybody went to to universities. Everybody, most of them to Mason. Everybody got degrees. Everybody got jobs. Everybody got homes.
04:10.25
DR DR
So the entire Ramadan family is indebted to this great system that we have. And it was way of serving. Enjoyed it. Highest honor of my life, as I said. I became the first adult immigrant in history to make Jefferson's house.
04:26.56
DR DR
Jefferson, Madison, Patrick, Henry, and good old me. And I was pretty good at it. I did quite well in and the House, ah passed lot of laws, worked very closely in bipartisan manner.
04:39.88
DR DR
My district re-elected me, even though it was a heavily Democratic district. and I was a very well-known Republican at the time. But after two terms, it became very clear that One, on the personal side, it was not sustainable. I didn't i couldn't work. couldn't I'm a consultant. I do a international.
05:00.56
DR DR
At the time, was doing mostly international consulting work. And if I'm not on a plane with my clients, I'm not billing. And I wasn't billing for an entire five-year period. We spent all the savings.
05:12.78
DR DR
And it was also time of change in in the party. That was when Back then, Donald J. Trump became the nominee of the Republican Party in 2015, and that's when I made the decision not to run for a third term.
05:30.09
Sam Shirazi
Well, that's a lot of interesting details and I want to unpack that a little bit before I turn to Virginia in 2025.
05:33.48
DR DR
Sure. I just want a question.
05:37.72
Sam Shirazi
I guess one question I work, because I think a lot of people, they're worried about running for office, especially in Virginia, because the house a delegate in Virginia only makes
05:38.60
DR DR
I
05:48.70
Sam Shirazi
the the base salary is $17,640 with some expenses. and And obviously most people, they can't make a living off just that. And we have this part-time legislature thing that doesn't seem to work that well.
06:00.98
Sam Shirazi
How do you make it work? and And do you think Virginia should go to a full-time legislature that actually pays the legislature's ah ah living salaries so they can actually have a that as their full-time job?
06:13.98
DR DR
Yeah, I was fortunate enough that I had, you I'd done really well in the years prior to running for office in life. And i had I had enough savings to live off of the savings basically for the four or five years.
06:32.34
DR DR
And I was doing just a little bit of business that had recurring income that came to me that didn't require my time or attention. So it was there was small income coming in from from that those that business that didn't require my time. But my main business of consulting, i wasn't I wasn't doing it and I wasn't billing and to put put all my time and effort and energy into into the the the service.
07:00.96
DR DR
It's not sustainable. yeah So if I hadn't had the the savings that I had, I would not have been able to do it. It is there.
07:10.91
DR DR
The system is broken. It had good intentions that would have worked back during our founding fathers. If it is only the six weeks or eight weeks during session, sure, everybody or not everybody, well most people can manage taking six weeks or eight weeks off, even if it's without pay and doing it.
07:29.29
DR DR
But as You know, today it's no longer just six or eight weeks. One, you get a campaign year round. Two, in Northern Virginia, where I was, i was a Republican in 60 plus Democratic district.
07:41.45
DR DR
That requires a lot of effort and time outside of session. So it was ah ah double full time job, really, not a part time job. that's how it worked out for me. But it's hard. it's it's very That's why you end up with a lot of retirees.
07:56.95
DR DR
That's why you end up with and individually wealthy people or business owners and professionals that their business allows them to take the time off.
08:08.12
DR DR
Lawyers, for example, that that end up serving. um Now, how do you fix that is is a very controversial and long subject to talk about.
08:20.10
DR DR
But I am not in favor of, even though i had to leave because of that, I'm not in favor of full-time legislature. I think it's good to have citizen legislature. I think having the wealth of knowledge from my colleagues in the House and Senate when we were there, people that are farmers and teachers and in business owners and professionals and was very important for for the Commonwealth and for how to legislate versus you know professional politicians that what you end up with.
08:54.78
DR DR
But it certainly needs fixing. And you can fix it in multiple ways. some of the Some of what took a lot of time was Constituent services, obviously, and being able to stay and and connect with your constituents all the time, in addition to fundraising, not just for your campaigns, but you had to fundraise to operate.
09:18.96
DR DR
So let me give you an example. I ask people all the time, said, how many times do you expect to hear from your elected official per year? I'll ask you, Sam, your your your delegate or your senator.
09:32.16
DR DR
How many times a year would you as a citizen would like to receive a mailer from them that explains what they're doing for you or on your behalf?
09:42.16
Sam Shirazi
I would say, you know, I'd like to hear from my state legislature. So maybe once every other month.
09:49.21
DR DR
Very good. So six times a year. Six times a year, on average, let's use even numbers, 40,000 households, Or even households in the average delegate district So 30,000 households, if you were to mail them each a letter, let's say average number as well, though not accurate and I'm underestimating, a dollar per mailing.
10:16.70
DR DR
That's the price of printing it and and putting a postage and mailing it. So that's $30,000 per mailing. um Six times a year is $180,000.
10:28.66
DR DR
What is the budget for mail that each delegate gets? Do you know?
10:35.46
Sam Shirazi
I'm guessing it's not that much.
10:37.84
DR DR
It's $1,300 a year. So $1,300 is not even enough to respond to the letters that are written to you, not even to the students that write ask for stuff from our high schools.
10:51.41
DR DR
So if you wanted to do two or three mailings a year, You got to do $60,000 $90,000 a year, which you had to go out and raise just so that you can operate.
11:02.56
DR DR
At the time when I was there, we had a budget of $40,000 for staff. That's it. Okay, so tell me, please, what who, not just what caliber, who can I hire $40,000 in Northern Virginia?
11:20.90
DR DR
not he You can't get a college graduate. can't even get a high school graduate that will work for you for $40,000 in Northern Virginia because they can't live for $40,000. So you had to add to that from not the government money, not the state money, but you had to raise money or out of pocket put in money so you can hire somebody at about $60,000 or $70,000 year. That's one aid. One. That's it.
11:47.19
DR DR
one that's it During session, you get little more for a couple, a few hundred bucks for, for I think, for, i no, I don't think we even got paid for that. it was it was just you could either put in the money or yourself or get interns for free yeah to do that.
12:02.08
DR DR
But so some of the reforms that we can do for that system is at least put in a decent budget to run a delegate's office and have enough staff that can do some of the work so that the elected official doesn't have to spend all that time away from their full-time jobs.
12:22.54
DR DR
Now, still $17,600 is not enough. Don't make it full-time in my opinion, but make it enough that it could you know substitute the time that they're taking off from their full-time jobs or their businesses and be able to their mortgage.
12:40.36
DR DR
But i'm i'm I'm still in favor of a part-time legislature Maybe longer than six weeks or maybe break it up over yeah multiple weeks, even if it's eight to ten weeks, but break it up versus January through March.
12:54.79
DR DR
You know, the I think the January through March comes from the good old times where they celebrated their they celebrated Christmas with their families and there was nothing to be done at the farm.
13:06.68
DR DR
planting doesn't start till ti March or April. So they got horse and buggy and went to Richmond. Before that, they went to Williamsburg, met, legislated, and then went home to the farms before planting season.
13:18.95
DR DR
You don't need to do that anymore. You can divide the eight to 10 weeks over a period of or over the year and so on. But citizen legislature still makes sense. And it's actually much more effective. I teach as at Mason, as you know, just finished a graduate course ah ah yesterday on federal American government to concentration on on Congress.
13:41.64
DR DR
And I did the comparison that this year, between January and March, the General Assembly had, what was it, I think it was 1,700 or 1,800 bills or so in Virginia, and 700 to 900 of them probably became law. I don't have the exact number. But in comparison, in this last three months, same period of time, even longer, Congress passed five and only five bills.
14:06.89
DR DR
So it's efficient. It is controlled chaos to a certain extent. But it does need some some reform.
14:16.94
DR DR
And the reform needs to come more in little more money for the electives, but more so for their offices to operate versus this stupidity of $40,000 for budget and $17,000 for for budget and and seventeen thousand dollars for a for salary and $1,300 or for mail for the entire year
14:42.99
Sam Shirazi
I did want to ask you about the extra challenge you had as a battleground district delegate. And you you both of your races were really close and you ended up winning.
14:55.36
Sam Shirazi
you know What was it like running in a race that you know is going to be really close and that both parties are really going to be focusing on?
15:02.13
DR DR
Expensive. Back then, I think we broke the records. Now, those numbers have been broken since then and and and du and and multiplied by a number of factors. But at the time, my campaign was $750,000 or so. In the first campaign, I think my opponent overspent me by little bit.
15:22.78
DR DR
In my re-election campaign, i think my campaign was also another $750,000. And then John Bell, who ran against me, spent over a million.
15:33.83
DR DR
John became a friend later. He ran for my seat after I had left and and won it. And we've we've had a great working relationship and friendship. But it was expensive and it was polarized, I think, too.
15:47.25
DR DR
was It was very polarized in the primary to start when I ran the first race. the After 20 years of of service to the party and supporting everybody and their mother and hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations and numerous time on on the field and advice and policy work and party work, within a week or 10 days of me announcing, I had a challenger in my party that called out my last name and my heritage, and I became, quote-unquote, a terrorist undercover cell, and it was a nasty, nasty campaign against me in the primary.
16:23.68
DR DR
Accusations of not living in my district, they tried everything, sued me for that. Of course, know I won all that, and I survived it and won it to by about 10%.
16:34.98
DR DR
And then it was the general election, which was also nasty. The the Democrats played at the time – Similar tactics. ae ah ah Didn't call it heritage, but started playing the international role in my international work and attacked me for for doing business in China, which was total lie because I've never done business in China. I've done a lot of business in the Middle East and India, but that had nothing to do with China. never been to China, and never done business in China.
17:03.78
DR DR
So there was a lot of misrepresentation. Then they figured out that that didn't work. So they attacked me for doing business in India. And they miscalculated because that made me near and dear to the Indian American community in my district, which had a majority minority there.
17:20.61
DR DR
So I ended up helping me for for them attacking me for doing business in India. But the point was that it was very expensive. It was very polarized. It was very political.
17:32.63
DR DR
And it included a lot, a lot of attacks, personal and lot of lies from my own party and from the opponent party at the time.
17:41.51
Sam Shirazi
So I would describe you maybe something like a Barbara Comstock Republican. And you mentioned you're an immigrant to this country. You know, why did you become a Republican? And um you know, I'm going to ask you the classic question. Did the Republican Party leave you or did you leave the Republican Party?
18:01.10
DR DR
Oh no, the Republican Party left me, my friend, a long time ago. Republican Party left all of us. So, Barbara is a dear friend, remains to be dear friend. we just left him an event together. we We do business together and and we are like-minded nowadays.
18:15.78
DR DR
a matter of fact, we were not like-minded while we were both still in office in the party. I am more of a libertarian-ish conservative. Barbara is a traditional conservative.
18:27.05
DR DR
but we both are common sense conservatives, if if you want to put it that way. So that's why we that. And when Barbara, we were together in the house and then Frank Wolf decided to announce that he is no longer running for office for another term, surprised us all. The first call I got immediately i was from Barbara and says, well, what do you think? And I said, what do you mean? She's like, are you interested? i don't really want to.
18:56.93
DR DR
fight you in in a primary. said, to you I was considered much more conservative than Barbara at the time. and, I said, oh, hell no. and I have no interest in Congress. I call it a cesspool.
19:09.33
DR DR
So you jump in and I'm all in to help you. And I did, quite a bit and, you know, was, was all in for Barbara. I helped her run to the point that her husband still calls me chip called me then her campaign boyfriend and still is.
19:24.75
DR DR
Uh, so we, we did a lot, lot of campaigning together. It was great, great fun. Uh, but, I became a Republican. There was a personal connection and then there was the traditional immigration story. So back in Lebanon in 1983, after the Marine bombing and the American embassy bombing, which i literally witnessed both of those, I was 13 years old, George Herbert Bush, vice president at the time, flew to Beirut.
19:53.98
DR DR
And I was asking a lot of questions, trying to figure out why they bombed the Marines. I went to an American prep school in Beirut, started asking question. They handed me the constitution at the time, read it, fell in love, didn't understand it all, but read it, fell in love with this idea called America.
20:08.68
DR DR
Then George Herbert Bush flies to Beirut and I lined up the street, carried a little American flag and and and waved for him. So fast forward six years after that, I'm a 19 year old who just landed and now George Herbert Bush is President George Herbert Bush getting ready for his re-election, 1990 re-election Bush-Quel campaign.
20:29.50
DR DR
So there was that connection. And then there was the philosophical connections. Most immigrants are conservatives, people that flee, as I did, you oppressive regimes want freedom, want ah ah less government, want less taxes, want or whether they are Catholic, Jews, Muslims, or or Hindus, they they they are people of faith, family and family values are important to them.
21:02.12
DR DR
And that's what the grand old party used to be. Not this party today, not this party in the last 10 years. my My Republican Party at the time would have never, ever, ever considered, mind you, applied tariffs that are taxes on Americans.
21:19.82
DR DR
So no, yeah, the party left, the party changed. The party became Trump's party, not Reagan's conservative party, the shining city on a hill. And that's why I yeah decided not to run for a third term and not to identify as a Republican after that, but a former and continue to be a conservative.
21:45.28
DR DR
Ramadan, I have a pinned tweet there, and it is Reagan's last speech, which was a love letter to immigrants. That's the Republican Party that would want to, not the party that vilifies immigrants, not the president that calls them criminals and they come from shithole countries. And so, yeah, then our party left us.
22:08.05
Sam Shirazi
And you used to represent Loudoun, which had a lot of immigrants and does have a lot of immigrants. And I think Loudoun often gets a lot of attention.
22:15.24
DR DR
if I ask
22:16.75
Sam Shirazi
It's in the press. It's kind of a it's more democratic now, but used to be more of a swing county. And in 2024, it's It became less democratic. I think President Trump did better than people expected Loudoun.
22:30.23
Sam Shirazi
So why do you think Loudoun is so important? And do you think this year Loudoun will kind of go back and become more democratic as it had been under the the first Trump administration?
22:40.55
DR DR
Yeah, I represented Loudoun and end parts of of Prince William, but I am a Loudoun resident, so I was the delegate from Loudoun. Loudoun was the bellwether for Virginia, just like Virginia was the bellwether for the country.
22:56.95
DR DR
Loudoun is still important because of of the numbers that are here and in the importance of it and and being a majority-minority or minority-majority county pretty much, especially in eastern Loudoun.
23:11.71
DR DR
Trump did better, but he did not win Loudoun. It's still, it had moved to be, it used to be eastern Loudoun where I represented was Democratic, even though I was a Republican and won as a Republican.
23:24.32
DR DR
But the county overall was a swing county. and the The county has changed. The county has become a Democratic county. as evidence on our board of supervisors, which used to be majority Republicans.
23:39.10
DR DR
Now it's a seven to democratic ah board supervisors, all wonderful people, and all are good friends. But yeah so Loudoun is democratic today.
23:50.99
DR DR
The question is to what level is it? A five point or is it a 15 point county? This year, The entire Commonwealth, specifically Northern Virginia and the and and the Eastern Shore and and the Norfolk and Virginia Beach area and so on, are more democratic. But the Commonwealth is is going to go back to voting democratic in my expectation.
24:15.66
DR DR
for multiple reasons. One, where the craziness that's happening across the river in Washington, D.C., the the direct effect on Northern Virginia and the Commonwealth overall, the the cuts in the federal government in money and the firing, and God help us, if they really move departments altogether and relocate federal agencies to the Midwest, that's going to hit the Commonwealth and hit it hard.
24:41.59
DR DR
something that our current administration, current governor is is trying to shield from reality because of, you know, the fealty to the dear leader.
24:54.05
DR DR
And because of, let's face it, everybody knows it now, Glenn Youngkin wants to run for president in four years. So, you know, regardless of what's happening in Washington, he's going to keep singing the Trump song and he's going to get up and claim 250,000 jobs and Virginia is doing great. No, it's not.
25:12.87
DR DR
They're not 250,000 jobs. Just creating one one website is all what he did basically to date is is not solving the problem.
25:25.15
DR DR
And they are simply just trying to to to put lipstick on the pig. And that pig is an ugly pig out of out of Washington today. So Loudoun will go Democratic handedly.
25:37.79
DR DR
And the likelihood of Virginia going Democratic handedly is also. It leans Democratic now. That's what it's looking like for the gubernatorial campaign. But if if this craziness in Washington continues, it's it's not a matter of just Democrats winning. It's a matter of Democrats winning big.
25:55.66
DR DR
And that'll set the tone for the midterm elections in 2026 for the rest of the country.
26:01.25
Sam Shirazi
And what do you think the Republican plan is at this point? Because, you know, I'm trying to figure out as political observer, it seems like, you know, you're just kind of going to do the plan regardless of what the political environment is like.
26:07.60
DR DR
yeah
26:10.17
DR DR
but
26:12.83
DR DR
but yeah
26:15.25
Sam Shirazi
And you're laughing, so I'm sure you have some opinions.
26:18.41
DR DR
Sam, come on. Republican in plan? It's a dumpster fire today, especially what we've seen in the last two or three days in Virginia on the lieutenant governor stuff. There is no plan. There is, there is you know, we claim we claim the win, even though there's no win. i mean,
26:35.83
DR DR
in a hundred days, I'll give him one thing. President Trump was able to secure the border and that's very important. That was one of his promises. now to what level? 90%, 95%, 99% doesn't matter. It's significant.
26:48.52
DR DR
and that is the one thing that he did in the last hundred days. But besides that, he did nothing except claim that he does stuff, wrote a bunch of executive orders and,
27:00.72
DR DR
I'll give him one more thing. He is probably one of the most consequential presidents that we've seen in recent history, except it's consequential to the negative here, consequential for destroying what we knew as a system.
27:15.67
DR DR
for for for destroying the federal services that we have, for for destroying the economy with tariffs, oh my God, God help us. and and And for the costs that's gonna apply to to every citizen. On average, every one of us is gonna spend four or $5,000 more because of the tariff deal.
27:36.10
DR DR
Our standing in the world, the long-term effects that that's gonna take, the rebuilding of what he's destroying, It's not like the federal government wasn't bloated. It was.
27:46.14
DR DR
It was not like there wasn't waste. Of course there is waste. And of course we can cut some money. And of course we can make it better. But not this way. They're not doing that. They are just positioning and and and and you know playing favoritism and cutting where they don't need to cut and doging. And it becomes now a pay-for-play for millionaires and billionaires.
28:13.82
DR DR
I mean, look, nowadays i am i am agreeing with Rand Paul more than anybody else. Just follow what Rand is saying. Tariffs are taxes. And no, we do not live in an emergency. We had an emergency on the border, period.
28:27.100
DR DR
We don't have a trade emergency. for a president to take trade emergency powers and do what he's doing. we We can't and shouldn't live under an emergency.
28:38.95
DR DR
Shame on Congress and shame on all these members of of of of of the House and the Senate that abdicated their role. People elected them to be legislators.
28:51.08
DR DR
did not elect them to be, yes, dear leader and give their power to the executive. and And then he serves or he rules or be a wannabe dictator and rules as a dictator through executive powers.
29:07.54
DR DR
The rule of law is an important basic of our system. That's what makes us different, not only democracy and and our system and our republic, but but ingrained in that is is the due process of law that doesn't exist in most of of of the world that envy us for our due process.
29:28.63
DR DR
Now we're picking people off the streets that have that have legal status and and throwing them out without due process. Now, look, if if if you if if if these individuals are MS-13, throw their asses in jail and do deport them. But after you put them through the system, that's why we have a system. That's why we have courts. That's why we have due process.
29:52.44
DR DR
You don't just pick people off the streets and deport them willy-nilly without the courts. That is just un-American, and that is not conservative, not Republican.
30:02.64
DR DR
That is just Trumpism. That's a different world than the world that the grand old party – I mean, i keep saying, as as you've you've seen on my Twitter all the time, grand old party no more.
30:12.55
DR DR
Yeah.
30:15.12
Sam Shirazi
Well, I did want to ask you one other question before I let you go on the grand old party, at least in Virginia. And that is what has happened the last week with the lieutenant governor spot on the ticket and John Reed. And obviously, you still have a pulse on the Virginia Republican Party. know, what's going on in terms of the dynamics between Governor Youngkin, Lieutenant Governor Sears, and then John Reed? know, the whole thing seems a little bit chaotic. and And what do you make of what's going on?
30:44.77
DR DR
Yeah, it's a dumpster fire. First of all, there's no party in Virginia. John Frederick, who is a friend of mine, even though he's he's now a Trump MAGA world guy, remains to be a friend.
30:57.89
DR DR
John had an old saying many years ago, way before that. He says the party is nothing more than a a ah a mailing address and an answering machine.
31:08.10
DR DR
And that is true. i mean, the party in Virginia, because of the way that that political donations are are unlimited and directly to individuals. The party is simply an address and a mail permit and an answering machine that candidates use because they get cheaper mail rate mailing through the party versus something else. So the party is is not in control of anything.
31:32.04
DR DR
And the chairman of the party is always ah ah figure. and And I love, ah ah Anderson, Rich, is is a colleague, and we served together in the Virginia House and remains to be a personal friend despite all of our political disagreements recently.
31:48.38
DR DR
But the party has no role, really. So it falls on the caucuses in the House and the Senate, and it falls on the administration. When you have a Republican governor, that Republican governor is de facto the leader of Republicans in Virginia.
32:03.38
DR DR
Well, in this administration, you had a Republican governor who has a much higher aspiration, well-known fact that he never wanted to be governor and oops, he became governor. He was always running for something else. It was initially in in the U.S. Senate, which now is no longer a game or on on the, as I understand, on his horizon. He's now just concentrating on 2028 presidential run.
32:29.36
DR DR
and We all know that him and Sears were not close to start. and And if you remember in the last gubernatorial race, he just, she barely was with him anywhere on, i mean, they ran two separate campaigns, but she rode that coattails and got in.
32:45.05
DR DR
And so he didn't have a choice but to endorse her this time. And then the the the dynamic of, of, uh, uh, somebody dropping out of the race in Fairfax and John Reed becoming the only candidate.
33:00.49
DR DR
And then, oops, that's a controversial figure. Now, I don't know Mr. Reed. I never listened to his radio. I'm sure we probably were at the same events, same place. So we may have said hello at a couple places, but I really don't know him. I don't think he knows me.
33:14.25
DR DR
don't know. He can pick me up from Adams. I don't recall ever having an interaction with him, but who knows? so spent 20 years in the party. i understand. He's is ah far-right MAGA conservative.
33:26.82
DR DR
Two things come to mind here, and I'm just reading this from the news. I don't know more than what I'm reading in the news. This Tumblr, and you i somebody had to explain Tumblr to me a couple days ago on Twitter because I didn't know what this is, but this Tumblr account is not a new account.
33:44.60
DR DR
It existed for years before he became a public figure became a or before he was known in politics. So having, it's weird, right?
33:55.88
DR DR
Like my Twitter and my LinkedIn and my Facebook, they're all the same. I don't have more than that. It's weird to have somebody who would have the exact same name for years and never come to the radar or or come on your radar without you knowing, especially when it's it's a an account that on on a gay side and you are gay and he's entitled to his preferences in life.
34:22.66
DR DR
But it's weird and, in you know, it's it's hard and it's indefensible to say that you don't know anything about that. In addition to that, I do know Matt Moran.
34:34.25
DR DR
And even though, you know, Matt, and and you just heard me criticize his boss and the governor, and I have been for years, Matt is a gentleman who I believe, and he is and he is true to his word. Matt served the speaker and and the majority leader when I was in the House. I got to know him well.
34:51.90
DR DR
I believe Matt Moran for everything that he is saying in this debacle. That said, it's still a dumpster fire. That said, that shows you how divided that group is And it shows the inability of them to launch a unified campaign or any kind of a challenge or real challenge when we are in today's atmosphere, when the Democrats are ahead, when historically Virginia voted with the exception of one time for Terry McAuliffe in 2013.
35:26.40
DR DR
Virginia has always voted against whoever is in the White House. And that's without the person in the White House being as crazy and as as detrimental to Virginia as this one is.
35:37.83
DR DR
So when you have all of that together and then add to it an amazing candidate on the Democratic side, I mean, you have a capable kind former congresswoman who served Virginia, who was, who was you know, voted as as the most bipartisan, who had passed legislation under Republican and Democratic presidents, who has a background in law enforcement, who was CIA officer.
36:02.31
DR DR
the the their Their dumpster fire is not going to help. They're at disadvantage anyways against Abigail Spanberger. They will continue to be at a disadvantage anyway.
36:13.94
DR DR
And it's not going to look good for Republicans anytime soon in my in my estimate. a who knows?
36:23.20
DR DR
That's why it's called elections. And hey, Donald Trump became president. So what do I know?
36:28.31
Sam Shirazi
Well, I'm sure I will get to find out in November. Well, I really appreciate you taking the time to speak with me. I think it's always interesting to get your perspective as a former delegate. And, you know, I i just appreciate ah ah your time and and thank you for joining me.
36:42.30
DR DR
My pleasure. Thanks for having me, Sam.
36:44.44
Sam Shirazi
Okay, and I will see you next time on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Bonus Episode: The Start of Primary Early Voting
2 maj· Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections
00:00.78
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. Today is the start of early voting in Virginia for the primary and I wanted to do a special bonus episode to celebrate it.
00:14.36
Sam Shirazi
But before turning to that, I did just briefly want to mention a recent piece of Virginia political news that is not related to the 2025 election. And that is that the 11th District Congressman Gerry Connolly is retiring due to his ongoing struggle with cancer.
00:35.45
Sam Shirazi
And I just wanted to wish him the best and thank him for the many years of public service to Virginia.
00:42.94
Sam Shirazi
And so I just wanted to make a note of that before talking about early voting in Virginia this year. Okay, so early voting is happening today, and it will continue all the way on until June 17th, which will be the actual primary date.
01:00.34
Sam Shirazi
So I just wanted to kind of quickly go over what's going on with the primary and what's going on with the early voting. So as I mentioned last week, and there was a lot going on on the Republican side with the lieutenant governor's race, but long story short, there will not be a statewide primary for the Republicans.
01:16.35
Sam Shirazi
Specific House of Delegates districts will have primaries on the Republican side. But it's not like there's a statewide race. However, on the Democratic side, there will be a statewide primary, both for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
01:31.37
Sam Shirazi
Plus, in a handful of districts, there will also be House of Delegates primaries. And I know I've been saying that I'll do a House of Delegates primary preview. I anticipate doing that at some point before the primary, that one.
01:46.05
Sam Shirazi
I'm waiting for the primary to get a little bit closer just because some of those races, it's a little unpredictable right now. I don't know who's necessarily favored. And I prefer to spend a little bit more time waiting and seeing what's going on in the House of Delegates primaries before commenting too much on it.
02:00.90
Sam Shirazi
But I did want you to know that there are certain primaries in certain House of Delegates districts, not a whole lot this year, considering that there are 100 House of Delegates districts, I believe there's only a less than 25 primaries, both if you combine the Democrats and Republicans. So not a whole lot of primaries this year in the House of Delegates.
02:21.12
Sam Shirazi
I think most of the attention is going to be on the Democratic side to the lieutenant governor and attorney general races. And remember that any voter in Virginia can decide to cast the ballot either in the Democratic primary or the Republican primary. There is no party registration in Virginia, so any voter can go and pick which primary they want to vote for. Obviously, Republicans, there's only a handful of districts that there are primaries, so most Republicans aren't going to have a chance to vote in a Republican primary.
02:51.58
Sam Shirazi
Every Democrat has an opportunity to vote in the Democratic primary because there statewide primaries. Everyone can vote for lieutenant governor and attorney general. And was kind of interesting question to think about. Are Republicans going to vote in the Democratic primary? I think that's relatively unlikely just because most Republicans aren't going to take the effort to go vote in the Democratic primary.
03:11.29
Sam Shirazi
I do think independents, particularly those who are either maybe more moderate or conservative, they might just decide they want to vote in the Democratic primary either because there isn't a Republican primary or because The Democrats are seem like they have a better shot of winning this year. So obviously if you're trying to influence who's going to be the next lieutenant governor or attorney general, you're going to be able to do that in the Democratic primary.
03:36.44
Sam Shirazi
Again, I don't think that's going to be a huge number of voters. You have to be pretty politically engaged to know that there's a primary and that early voting is happening. and I should note this generally about the primary is the turnout is going to be much less than the general election. I'm guessing we'll probably get a quarter of the general election turnout, on a good night and it's, it might even be lower than that. So I think, it's just something to keep in mind that realistically, most of the people who end up voting in these primaries are going to be politically engaged. And then the people who are going to vote early in the primary,
04:10.36
Sam Shirazi
early during the early voting session are going to be the most politically engaged people typically the least politically engaged people vote later or during election day the most politically engaged people vote on the first day of early voting and there there's you know always people who want to be the first person or or among the first people to cast a ballot and this year the voting is already starting in Virginia and I think that's why it's an exciting day today because We're to important elections this year. And these are the first votes that are really going to happen this year in Virginia for this primary.
04:43.05
Sam Shirazi
And they're happening on May second And you might be asking yourself, well, May 2nd, that's kind of early. The the primary is not until June 17th. So Virginia has 45 days of early voting. you know The Republicans sometimes discuss how this is like too much early voting. that It's too long of a period. It's among the longest periods of early voting in the country.
05:04.21
Sam Shirazi
There have been some bills to reduce the number of days of early voting. Obviously, that was not going to go anywhere with the Democrats being in control of the General Assembly. So I don't anticipate that changing anytime soon.
05:16.53
Sam Shirazi
And part of the reason there's 45 days, so to give you a little brief history of early voting in Virginia, prior to Democrats controlling the General Assembly after the 2019 elections, early voting, you actually needed what's called an excuse to early vote. So this was typically...
05:32.72
Sam Shirazi
You're you work outside of your county or you're sick or you're ill or you have a disability. Those types of things were the excuses you needed to early vote. And so realistically, I mean, not a lot of people qualified for that.
05:47.33
Sam Shirazi
I think in 2008, the Obama campaign kind of started trying to encourage people to early vote within the law, within those excuses, if if someone qualified for the excuse. But it still was not a huge amount of early voting during most of the 2010s. And then once the Democrats changed the law, first there was 2020 with COVID, and then there was the permanent change to early voting.
06:08.87
Sam Shirazi
Anyone in Virginia can early vote for any reason. You don't need a reason. You just show up with your at your early voting location. And if you're on the rolls, you can go ahead and early vote.
06:19.66
Sam Shirazi
And I think it's kind of changed the way campaigns are done in Virginia because now there's a much more emphasis on early voting. The Democrats traditionally, and I think I would still say, have an advantage in early voting. But Glenn Youngkin in 2021,
06:34.16
Sam Shirazi
kind of started emphasizing early voting. The Trump campaign in 2024 pushed early voting, at least in person, more. And so we saw that early voting voting has been picking up in Virginia over the last five years, and it's just changing how the campaigns are trying to reach out to voters.
06:51.75
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, how what does the mechanics of early voting look like? So typically, there are Two basic ways to early vote. There is early voting in person and then there's early mail voting.
07:05.90
Sam Shirazi
And I would say Republicans certainly prefer to vote in person either early voting or on Election Day. Democrats are more open to voting either in person or by mail. And I will say still the vast majority of people who vote by mail either in a primary or a general election are going to be Democrats. So it's just the reality that Republicans are more comfortable voting generally in person.
07:30.96
Sam Shirazi
So the early voting locations, it really depends on your county or city. Most counties or cities have one location, and that's typically the office of elections, which is usually where most of the county offices are located.
07:45.23
Sam Shirazi
Some of the larger counties, like Fairfax is a good example, has a lot of satellite voting locations because obviously you have a big county in Fairfax County, over a million people. You can't just have one early voting location.
07:56.18
Sam Shirazi
So usually Fairfax County and other larger counties in Virginia have more than one early voting location. Sometimes those counties will have weekend voting for early voting, prior starting in in the beginning part of early voting.
08:12.45
Sam Shirazi
But under Virginia law, every single county, the two Saturdays before the election, will have in-person early voting at least one location. And so that's the law that counties don't have to offer early voting every weekend, but at least the two Saturdays before the election, there has to be in-person early voting.
08:33.26
Sam Shirazi
And then besides the in-person early voting, there is also absentee or mail voting. And that can either be specifically for one election where a voter requests a mail ballot for this specific election, or there's the permanent absentee list, and I'll talk about that in a second, where voters will sign up for this optional list and receive a absentee ballot every single election.
08:56.01
Sam Shirazi
And they have the option of choosing to get either the Democratic or Republican primary ballots, or they choose not to vote in the primaries. And that'll get mailed to their house.
09:08.13
Sam Shirazi
And in terms of the mail ballots, there's a few options in terms of returning them. Obviously, you can mail them back. There are also Dropbox locations that voters can return them to.
09:18.74
Sam Shirazi
And voters also have the option on Election Day of just going to their local polling location and turning those ballots in that they can also turn them in at the early voting locations. And, you know, that you hear sometimes concerns about the Postal Service and, you know,
09:34.08
Sam Shirazi
either mail ballots getting lost or delays in having them returned. And so I think, you know, it's always a good idea to make sure you have enough time if you're deciding to mail back your ballot.
09:45.60
Sam Shirazi
ballot and make sure you have enough time that it can get processed. Or you obviously you can either go to a Dropbox or turn it in in person if you really want to make sure that your ballot is received. And so typically what you see in early voting is you have a, don't call it a surge, but you you have a lot of people voting at the beginning, either in person or by mail because they they've gotten the mail ballot, they fill it out, they send it back. or the people who are really excited to early vote, probably the political nerds who are listening to this podcast, they like to go vote early.
10:17.62
Sam Shirazi
and And so you see kind of a large amount of people voting early at the beginning of early voting. Then there's this lull during the 45-day period where yeah there's a trickle of people early voting, but not to the same extent as you saw at the beginning.
10:31.72
Sam Shirazi
And then at the end, there's like a surge of early voting because everyone realizes there's an election. And so usually the last two weeks or so, there's an increase of early voting kind of exponentially.
10:43.68
Sam Shirazi
more people voting and then obviously election day you have the most people voting and and you know people there's a variety of reasons people like to vote on election day as opposed to early voting some people just like election day they don't like voting early some people they don't realize there's an election and then all of a sudden they realize oh it's election day so I should go vote and then I'd i'd say the most practical reason is some of these larger counties more so geographically large Even if they don't have a large population, there's only maybe one early voting location because the county just doesn't have that many voters, but it's big. It's a big geographically rural, diverse county. And so you don't necessarily have the necessity to have a lot of early voting locations.
11:31.35
Sam Shirazi
And so what happens is people prefer to just vote at their local polling place because that might be a one mile drive versus 10 mile drive to the early voting location. Okay, so what does this all mean for the actual primary? And I'm going to focus more on the primary dynamics in this podcast.
11:50.87
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, I'll probably do an early voting podcast for the general election when the time comes and what that will look like. But I think the primary is interesting because I mentioned the permanent yeah permanent absentee list at the beginning.
12:03.37
Sam Shirazi
And if you remember, I said that the vast majority of people who are on the permanent absentee list are Democrats. And the reason for that is just Democrats feel more comfortable voting by mail.
12:14.34
Sam Shirazi
And so you've had a bunch of people sign up for the permanent absentee list since it was introduced a few years ago. But the vast majority of them pick the Democratic primary in terms of which primary they would rather vote in.
12:29.38
Sam Shirazi
So I looked at the numbers for the March 2024 Democratic primary for president, so over a year ago, and just for that primary, there were
12:42.41
Sam Shirazi
217,000 Democrats signed up for the permanent absentee list. And so if you've if you think about the permanent absentee list is growing, it's been over a year since then.
12:52.80
Sam Shirazi
and I'm sure someone has the exact number. I don't have the statistics at hand, but I'm guessing you know we're 220,000 Democrats on the permanent absentee list And so all those people, whether they know there's a primary or not, will be getting an absentee ballot in the mail.
13:08.39
Sam Shirazi
And I think that's going to be a real interesting part of this election, both for lieutenant governor and attorney general, is how are the campaigns reaching those people? Because 200,000, 220,000 people, that's a lot of people getting mail applications. And, you know I don't know how many people are going to end up voting in the Democratic primary for absentee lieutenant governor and attorney general.
13:32.60
Sam Shirazi
If I had to guess, it's probably over 300,000. Just depends how much enthusiasm there is, how many people are engaged this year. we could see even more. We could see up to 400,000.
13:45.22
Sam Shirazi
And a good chunk of that is going to be from the permanent absentee list. Now, not everyone on the permanent absentee list is going to return their ballot. And I'm guessing for an election like this, it's actually going to be a little less than a general election because A lot of people, they get the ballot in the mail, you know, primary for Lieutenant Governor Attorney General. They might not be super engaged.
14:05.17
Sam Shirazi
They forget about it. They end up not sending their ballot in. But usually there's at least a 50% return rate. So going to have at least 110,000 voting. in all likelihood, just on the permanent absentee list on the Democratic side.
14:19.67
Sam Shirazi
And that's a lot. That could be up to a quarter or more of the entire pool of people who are voting in the Democratic primary. And obviously, people who get mail ballots, you know, it's kind of how do you reach those voters? I'm guessing the campaigns will try to reach them through mailers because they're already getting stuff in the mail, including their ballots. So it might be a good idea to send them a mailer.
14:42.58
Sam Shirazi
The other interesting thing is, These people are typically going to vote, at least a good chunk of them, early in the process because these ballots go out you know roughly today on May 2nd.
14:55.46
Sam Shirazi
And you know it takes a few days for them to go through the mail. But next week, people are going to be getting these mail ballots. So we're probably going to get over 200,000 ballots being delivered to mailboxes next week in Virginia.
15:07.17
Sam Shirazi
And A good chunk of those people are going to fill them out pretty quickly and send them back. It's similar to the early voting dynamics where there'll be a lull. Some people will just sit on it.
15:17.98
Sam Shirazi
And then at the end, you'll see this surge of people also returning their mail ballots. But I would say, you know, you're going to get tens of thousands of people filling out these mail ballots pretty early on in the process for the permanent absentee list.
15:30.70
Sam Shirazi
And so those are votes being cast. you know They're in the system. They're banked. People can't change their minds. And so I think it's important for the campaigns running in the primaries to think about that, to think about the fact that these people are casting their ballots and you can't change them once you send it in. So I think all that is is pretty interesting to look at the start of early voting, not just the fact that people are voting today, but how does how does that look mechanically, which ballots are being cast, which ones are being counted.
16:03.20
Sam Shirazi
You know, we obviously won't get the results until June 17th, but the votes are being sent in and counted, you know, starting today. So it's it's going to be interesting to see how that all shakes out.
16:17.03
Sam Shirazi
So if you're interested in early voting, I encourage everyone to you know look up the information for your county. I will say it's the hours and the locations. you know it It can be county specific and city specific. So just make sure you know where you're going to early vote.
16:31.92
Sam Shirazi
You don't want to show up on a Sunday and the early voting location isn't open. Just make sure you know there are some locations that are open on Sunday, but they tend to be pretty rare. And so you just want to look on your local election website.
16:44.58
Sam Shirazi
If you're not sure what that is, you could just Google the county you're in, you know election office, and and it should come up. And some of the offices have that information on their website. If it's not on the website, you can always call them during business hours. I'm sure they will be happy to talk to you about how to cast your ballot early.
16:59.75
Sam Shirazi
And again, my my only pitch is I'm not going to tell you who to vote for, but I really hope that if you are interested in either the Democratic primary or if you're in a location that has a Republican primary, that you decide to go vote in these primaries because I think they really are important.
17:16.84
Sam Shirazi
You know, we tend to just focus on the general election, but, you know, the the people who are going to be elected to these offices, at least on the Democratic side for statewide offices, they need to be win these primaries. And even on the Republican side for these delegates districts, you know, some of the delegates are going to be picked in the June primary.
17:40.81
Sam Shirazi
And I guess I should just mention that both on the Democratic side and the Republican side, some of these House of Delegates seats are very red or very blue. And so almost certainly whoever wins the primary is going to be the next delegate in these districts.
17:53.15
Sam Shirazi
So I think it's important that you know you do your research, you know what's on your ballot. I will do a subsequent follow-up podcast, probably separate ones, both on the Lieutenant Governor Attorney General race on the democrat Democratic side. And then I will do one on the House of Delegates primaries for the seats that have them, because I really do think it's important to think about the primary and not just focus on the general election as much as we all you know care about who's going to be the next governor.
18:20.82
Sam Shirazi
That's obviously very important, but we also should probably care who's going to be the next Lieutenant Governor. the next attorney general, possibly on the Democratic side, we should care about some of these delegate races. And I just think generally as a good rule of democracy, you know you you could probably tell I'm the type of person that's going to be voting in every election.
18:39.70
Sam Shirazi
I encourage everyone, whenever you have the the chance to cast a ballot, to do it, because I think it's important to make your voice heard and to participate in a democracy. I'm going to preach to you and I'll get off my high horse, but I'm sure if you're listening to this podcast, in all likelihood, if you're going to vote, you're going to do that. So I appreciate that. But keep in mind, a lot of your less political friends, they might not know that there's a primary going on.
19:05.10
Sam Shirazi
Frankly, they might not know there's a state election this year. So I do encourage you to talk to people, let them know about what's going on in Virginia elections. That's part of the reason I do this podcast is to educate people, inform people.
19:16.08
Sam Shirazi
And I will say, you know, even among pretty well informed people, most of them are paying attention to what's going on in D.C. And obviously that's important. But they're not really closely following what's going on in state politics.
19:28.31
Sam Shirazi
And again, they might not know that there's a primary on June 17th and that early voting is starting on this Friday. And so the more you you can do as an individual to educate people, I think the more we have people engaged in the political process, it's good for democracy. It's good for people to make their voices heard.
19:45.17
Sam Shirazi
So yeah I'm happy that you all are listening to this podcast. And if you feel like it's an interesting podcast, feel free to share it with other people. Feel free to write reviews, which always helps the podcast. And I really thank everyone who's been listening and I've gotten good feedback.
20:01.46
Sam Shirazi
So anyways, go out there and early vote if that's what you want to do. And you know I will join you next time on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
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Episode 17: Primary Lessons

Bonus Episode: Primary Night

Bonus Episode: Primary Predictions

Bonus Episode: Foreign Policy Fallout

Episode 16: Chaz Nuttycombe Returns

Bonus Episode: Pre-Primary Campaign Finance Reports

Bonus Interview: Lauren Burke of Black Virginia News

Episode 15: A Historical Look at Why the Virginia Elections Matter

Bonus Episode: Trump and Musk Fall Out

Bonus Interview: Lowell Feld of Blue Virginia

Episode 14: LG and AG Primaries Heat Up

Candidate Interview: Dr. Mark Downey

Episode 13: Virginia Polls, Early Voting Picks Up, and Elon Exits

Bonus Episode: Checking In on the Federal Fallout

Bonus Interview: Michael Lee Pope

Episode 12: House of Delegates Primary Preview

Bonus Interview: Kevin Holst Executive Director of DLGA

Episode 11: Sleeper Seats in the House of Delegates

Episode 10: David Ramadan Interview

Bonus Episode: The Start of Primary Early Voting