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Emily and Geoff catch up on the Trump administration’s first big action on China tech competition, before digesting this week’s big tariff news (on autos) and looking ahead to next week’s big tariff news - what President Trump has called “Liberation Day”.
Notes:
White House, America First Trade Policy Memo
Polymarket betting market on Trump tariffs
Doug Irwin, “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense,” Wall Street Journal
Commerce Department, “Commerce Further Restricts China’s Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Computing Capabilities”
White House, “Adjusting Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts Into the United States”
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Emily and Geoff are joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow Eddie Fishman to discuss his new best-selling book Chokepoints, on how America has weaponized the global economy. They share economic war stories about U.S. actions against Iran, China, and Russia, and Eddie explains why his advice for the Trump administration on economic warfare is “to go big or go home”.
Also, check out new CNAS research, Sanctions By The Numbers: 2024 Year in Review, which provides data-driven analysis on a record-setting sanctions year.
Edward Fishman, “Chokepoints”
Robin Wright, “Stuart Levey’s War”, New York Times Magazine
Geoffrey Gertz, “Goodbye to Small Yard, High Fence”, New York Times
Doug Irwin “Clashing Over Commerce”
Stefan Zweig “The World of Yesterday”
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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On a live episode of Derisky Business, Emily and Geoff sit down with Peter Harrell, former White House Senior Director for International Economics, and Joyce Chang, Global Chair of Research with JP Morgan's Commercial and Investment Bank, to analyze the North American trade war, how U.S. trading partners, markets and the private sector are reacting, and why someone should sue over the tariffs.
WSJ Editorial on IEEPA-based tariffs
Brad Setser's "Follow the Money" blog
Follow Peter Harrell on LinkedIn
Eddie Fishman's "Chokepoints"
And register here for the CNAS Book Event with Eddie Fishman on 3/12
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Alexander Panetta, Washington correspondent for CBC, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, joins Geoff and Emily to discuss Canada’s reactions to the latest trade war salvos. He explains Trump’s “reverse Midas touch” when it comes to shaping Canadian public opinion, discusses how the upcoming Canadian elections may alter Canada’s approach to the United States, and lays out the stakes of the trade war for the future of U.S.-Canadian relations.
Register for tomorrow's event!
Yougov polling, Many Americans and Canadians say higher U.S. tariffs hurt both economies; half of Canadians boycott U.S. companiesAndrea Mandel-Campbell, Why Mexicans Don't Drink Molson: Rescuing Canadian Business From the Suds of Global ObscurityLawrence Martin, The Presidents and the Prime Ministers: Washington and Ottawa Face to Face: The Myth of Bilateral Bliss, 1867-1982Tim Cook, The Good Allies: How Canada and the United States Fought Together to Defeat Fascism during the Second World War
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Emily and Geoff catch up on the America First Investment Policy memo and other news from the last week, before sitting down with Agathe Demarais of the European Council on Foreign Relations to discuss how Europe is responding to Trump and the future of the transatlantic economic security relationship. (Note: This episode was recorded prior to reports on Wednesday that the Trump administration intends to apply 25% tariffs on EU goods.)
Register for a special CNAS conversation with Eddie Fishman who joins Emily to discuss his new book CHOKEPOINTS: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare.
Register for the event here!
White House, America First Investment Policy
White House, Defending American Companies and Innovators From Overseas Extortion and Unfair Fines and Penalties
Agathe Demarais, Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests
Agathe Demarais, “Learning from shipwrecked sailors: Three ways Europeans can weather the Trump storm,” ECFR Commentary
Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman, “Europe Must Unlock Its Geoeconomic Power,” Foreign Affairs
Agathe Demarais, “Why Putin is finally negotiating,” Politico
Agathe Demarais, “Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario”, ECFR Policy Brief
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Emily and Geoff quickly debrief on the week’s tariff news, including new 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports, before chatting all things semiconductors with Bruce Andrews, who until recently served as Intel’s chief government affairs officer. (Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 12, before President Trump's Thursday statements on reciprocal tariffs.)
White House Proclamation “Adjusting Steel Imports Into the United States”, February 10, 2025
Bruce’s book recommendation “On Xi Jinping” by Kevin Rudd
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Emily and Geoff digest this past weekend’s on-again, off-again 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the 10% tariffs on China (that at least for now are still here), and debate what these tariff dramas mean for the Trump team’s longer-term ambitions to restructure the global economic order.
Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, “A World Safe for Prosperity: How America Can Foster Economic Security,” Foreign Affairs, February 6, 2025
Peter Harrell, “The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs,” Lawfare, January 31, 2025
Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer, “Want Free Trade? May I Introduce You to the Tariff,” The New York Times, February 6, 2025
Noah Smith, “When are Tariffs Good?”, Noahpinon, February 6, 2025
Emily Kilcrease, "Articulate a Clear Tariff Roadmap," CNAS, January 20, 2025
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Emily and Geoff play a quick round of Tariff Tarot to dissect Trump’s tariff threats on Colombia last weekend. Then they dig in to the bipartisan debate over banning various connected products, including drones, from China, and explain why this may be one area of continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations. Finally, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program, joins to discuss her research on how drones are changing warfare and why the United States needs to invest in the drone industrial base.
“Securing the Information and Communications Technology and Services Supply Chain: Unmanned Aircraft Systems”
Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis and Molly Campbell, “Swarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan”
Stacie Pettyjohn, “Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine”
Emily Kilcrease, “Using a Sanctions Framework to Fix the ICTS Executive Order,” Lawfare
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Emily and Geoff dive in on the unfinished business Trump is inheriting and unpack what we learned from the America First Trade Policy executive memo. Plus we share a few thoughts on how to get the economic security agenda started on the right track, based on our contributions to a new CNAS report on Trump’s First 100 Days.
Show notes:
America First Trade Policy memo
Stephan Miran’s “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System"
CNAS Report: “The First 100 Days”
And see CNAS “Disorderly Conduct” report for prior analysis of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement, the merging of economic and security interests, and the need for economic security agreements
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AI expert Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to dig into the Biden Administration’s latest export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI plus the prospects for building a global regime to control AI diffusion.
Press release and summary of the AI diffusion rule from the Commerce Department
Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Paul Scharre, “Decoupling Wastes U.S. Leverage on China,” Foreign Policy
Paul Scharre, “Regulating AI is Easier than you Think,” Time
Epoch AI, a great data source on AI developments: epoch.ai
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Deputy Secretary Don Graves joins Emily to talk about the national security mission of the Department of Commerce and to unveil Commerce’s national security strategy.
Read the strategy: “The Decisive Decade: Advancing National Security at the Department of Commerce”
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Join Emily and Geoff to catch up on a whole bunch of economic security news, including the ill fated Nippon Steel / U.S. Steel deal, new chips export controls, and TikTik’s bad day in court. Plus, introducing ‘Tariff Tarot,’ a segment to help you make sense of all the tariff proposals and threats from the incoming administration, and an explainer on whether the President has the power to impose all the tariffs he’s talking about (spoiler: yup, sure does).
Read more!
Jacob Helberg, “The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power” https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Wires-of-War/Jacob-Helberg/9781982144449
Financial Times, “Biden administration split over US Steel deal” https://www.ft.com/content/c86cebe1-6ece-42cc-9d89-65d96bbd69c6
Edward Alden, “Trump Will Be His Own Trade Czar” Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/11/trump-trade-tariffs-china-europe-canada-mexico-imports-exports/
Douglas A. Irwin, “Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy” https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html
Kathleen Claussen and Timothy Meyer, “How ‘Economic Security’ is Re-shaping Presidential Power” Just Security https://www.justsecurity.org/97760/economic-security-presidential-power/
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Emily and Geoff react to the nominations of Scott Bessent for U.S. Treasury Secretary and Howard Lutnick for U.S. Commerce Secretary and overall point man for trade and tariffs. Then Evan Robinson-Johnson, business reporter from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, joins to talk about the national security review of Nippon Steel’s bid to buy U.S. Steel - which both President Biden and President-elect Trump have vowed to block. Complicated labor union dynamics, the companies’ threat to sue, and election-year politics have kept this deal in purgatory, but an impending government deadline could force action in the coming weeks.
“Editorial: Time for post-election sanity: Approve Nippon-U.S. Steel deal” by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette editorial board“Japanese steelmaker Nippon says it will not accept presidential block of U.S. Steel deal” by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
“Arbitration board signals support for U.S. Steel’s sale to Nippon in a blow to United Steelworkers union” by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
"US Steel Review Targeted by Republicans for Potential Probe" by Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg
“Under Pressure, Dubai Company Drops Ports Deal” by David E. Sanger, The New York Times
Ralls V. CFIUS decision by U.S. Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit
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Emily and Geoff switch from obsessing over the election to obsessing over the transition. They dig into what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and technology competition - and how the rest of the world might respond.
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The Biden administration released its final rule on regulating outbound U.S. investments going into sensitive tech sectors in China. Emily and Geoff dig into the rule, along with what to expect next from Congress and international partners.
Check out prior CNAS work on outbound investment:
Joint CNAS-Atlantic Council report, "Sand in the Silicon: Designing an Outbound Investment Controls Mechanism"
Public comments on the draft rule:https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/comments-on-provisions-pertaining-to-u[…]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concernhttps://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/provisions-pertaining-to-u-s-investmen[…]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concern
Congressional testimony:
https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/principles-and-policy-options-for-designing-better-investment-barriers
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Emily and Geoff tackle some of the most common questions on starting and building a career in the field of economic security, with the help of Michèle Flournoy, former Under Secretary of Defense as well as the co-founder and current Chair of the Board of the Center for a New American Security, and John Hughes, a partner at the strategic advisory firm DGA Group and a CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow.
Check out CNAS’ current internship and job opportunities at https://www.cnas.org/careers.
and read Michèle's recommendation:
A Passion for Leadership: Lessons on Change and Reform from Fifty Years of Public Service by Bob Gates.
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Join Emily Kilcrease and researcher Eleanor Hume to discuss the latest edition of CNAS's Sanctions by the Numbers series, examining how the U.S.'s sanctions policy on China has shifted under the Biden administration.
Find the full report and its findings here: Sanctions by the Numbers: Comparing the Trump and Biden Administrations’ Sanctions and Export Controls on China
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That escalated quickly! Emily and Geoff discuss why the U.S. aim to deny China access to the computing power necessary for frontier AI capabilities has led to an ever expanding set of new export controls. They are joined by Reed Albergotti of Semafor to talk about what this means for the Middle East's tech ambitions and by Pablo Chavez to share his analysis on the drive for sovereign AI around the world.
Check out Emily's remarks on America's evolving export control strategy and Reed's reporting from the Middle East: "How the UAE Got the U.S. to Bless its AI Ambitions" and U.S. Closer to Green Lighting NVIDIA Chips for Saudi Arabia.
Also read Pablo's two articles, Toward Digital Solidarity and Vassals vs. Rivals: The Geopolitical Future of AI Competition.
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Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, the European Union's Ambassador to the United States, joins Emily and Geoff for a wide-ranging conversation on Europe's growing role as a economic statecraft power, the importance of the transatlantic alliance in addressing the strategic challenges posed by Russia and China, and why all Americans should drink champagne
Ambassador Neliupšienė recommends listeners tune in to the Trade-Off podcast about the people, politics, and power inside Europe’s trade policy.
Further Reading:
EU Competitiveness: Looking Ahead (The Draghi Report)
Containing Crisis: Strategic Concepts for Coercive Economic Statecraft from CNAS
The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World by Anu Bradford
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NRC Media reporter Marc Hijink joined co-host Emily Kilcrease at a CNAS event to discuss his book, Focus: The ASML Way. For decades, ASML - the most valuable technology company in Europe - operated in the shadows, despite the fact that roughly 90 percent of all chips worldwide are made with ASML’s machines. In recent years, the Dutch manufacturing company has found itself at the center of a geopolitical storm between China and the United States and Europe. In this conversation, we delve into the history of the company, how it came to dominate the industry, and how it is navigating increasingly fraught geopolitical waters.
- Visa fler
