Avsnitt
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Emily and Geoff quickly debrief on the week’s tariff news, including new 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports, before chatting all things semiconductors with Bruce Andrews, who until recently served as Intel’s chief government affairs officer. (Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 12, before President Trump's Thursday statements on reciprocal tariffs.)
White House Proclamation “Adjusting Steel Imports Into the United States”, February 10, 2025
Bruce’s book recommendation “On Xi Jinping” by Kevin Rudd
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Emily and Geoff digest this past weekend’s on-again, off-again 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the 10% tariffs on China (that at least for now are still here), and debate what these tariff dramas mean for the Trump team’s longer-term ambitions to restructure the global economic order.
Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, “A World Safe for Prosperity: How America Can Foster Economic Security,” Foreign Affairs, February 6, 2025
Peter Harrell, “The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs,” Lawfare, January 31, 2025
Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer, “Want Free Trade? May I Introduce You to the Tariff,” The New York Times, February 6, 2025
Noah Smith, “When are Tariffs Good?”, Noahpinon, February 6, 2025
Emily Kilcrease, "Articulate a Clear Tariff Roadmap," CNAS, January 20, 2025
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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Emily and Geoff play a quick round of Tariff Tarot to dissect Trump’s tariff threats on Colombia last weekend. Then they dig in to the bipartisan debate over banning various connected products, including drones, from China, and explain why this may be one area of continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations. Finally, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program, joins to discuss her research on how drones are changing warfare and why the United States needs to invest in the drone industrial base.
“Securing the Information and Communications Technology and Services Supply Chain: Unmanned Aircraft Systems”
Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis and Molly Campbell, “Swarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan”
Stacie Pettyjohn, “Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine”
Emily Kilcrease, “Using a Sanctions Framework to Fix the ICTS Executive Order,” Lawfare
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Emily and Geoff dive in on the unfinished business Trump is inheriting and unpack what we learned from the America First Trade Policy executive memo. Plus we share a few thoughts on how to get the economic security agenda started on the right track, based on our contributions to a new CNAS report on Trump’s First 100 Days.
Show notes:
America First Trade Policy memo
Stephan Miran’s “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System"
CNAS Report: “The First 100 Days”
And see CNAS “Disorderly Conduct” report for prior analysis of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement, the merging of economic and security interests, and the need for economic security agreements
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AI expert Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to dig into the Biden Administration’s latest export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI plus the prospects for building a global regime to control AI diffusion.
Press release and summary of the AI diffusion rule from the Commerce Department
Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Paul Scharre, “Decoupling Wastes U.S. Leverage on China,” Foreign Policy
Paul Scharre, “Regulating AI is Easier than you Think,” Time
Epoch AI, a great data source on AI developments: epoch.ai
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Deputy Secretary Don Graves joins Emily to talk about the national security mission of the Department of Commerce and to unveil Commerce’s national security strategy.
Read the strategy: “The Decisive Decade: Advancing National Security at the Department of Commerce”
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Join Emily and Geoff to catch up on a whole bunch of economic security news, including the ill fated Nippon Steel / U.S. Steel deal, new chips export controls, and TikTik’s bad day in court. Plus, introducing ‘Tariff Tarot,’ a segment to help you make sense of all the tariff proposals and threats from the incoming administration, and an explainer on whether the President has the power to impose all the tariffs he’s talking about (spoiler: yup, sure does).
Read more!
Jacob Helberg, “The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power” https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Wires-of-War/Jacob-Helberg/9781982144449
Financial Times, “Biden administration split over US Steel deal” https://www.ft.com/content/c86cebe1-6ece-42cc-9d89-65d96bbd69c6
Edward Alden, “Trump Will Be His Own Trade Czar” Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/11/trump-trade-tariffs-china-europe-canada-mexico-imports-exports/
Douglas A. Irwin, “Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy” https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html
Kathleen Claussen and Timothy Meyer, “How ‘Economic Security’ is Re-shaping Presidential Power” Just Security https://www.justsecurity.org/97760/economic-security-presidential-power/
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Emily and Geoff react to the nominations of Scott Bessent for U.S. Treasury Secretary and Howard Lutnick for U.S. Commerce Secretary and overall point man for trade and tariffs. Then Evan Robinson-Johnson, business reporter from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, joins to talk about the national security review of Nippon Steel’s bid to buy U.S. Steel - which both President Biden and President-elect Trump have vowed to block. Complicated labor union dynamics, the companies’ threat to sue, and election-year politics have kept this deal in purgatory, but an impending government deadline could force action in the coming weeks.
“Editorial: Time for post-election sanity: Approve Nippon-U.S. Steel deal” by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette editorial board“Japanese steelmaker Nippon says it will not accept presidential block of U.S. Steel deal” by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
“Arbitration board signals support for U.S. Steel’s sale to Nippon in a blow to United Steelworkers union” by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
"US Steel Review Targeted by Republicans for Potential Probe" by Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg
“Under Pressure, Dubai Company Drops Ports Deal” by David E. Sanger, The New York Times
Ralls V. CFIUS decision by U.S. Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit
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Emily and Geoff switch from obsessing over the election to obsessing over the transition. They dig into what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and technology competition - and how the rest of the world might respond.
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The Biden administration released its final rule on regulating outbound U.S. investments going into sensitive tech sectors in China. Emily and Geoff dig into the rule, along with what to expect next from Congress and international partners.
Check out prior CNAS work on outbound investment:
Joint CNAS-Atlantic Council report, "Sand in the Silicon: Designing an Outbound Investment Controls Mechanism"
Public comments on the draft rule:https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/comments-on-provisions-pertaining-to-u[…]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concernhttps://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/provisions-pertaining-to-u-s-investmen[…]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concern
Congressional testimony:
https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/principles-and-policy-options-for-designing-better-investment-barriers
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Emily and Geoff tackle some of the most common questions on starting and building a career in the field of economic security, with the help of Michèle Flournoy, former Under Secretary of Defense as well as the co-founder and current Chair of the Board of the Center for a New American Security, and John Hughes, a partner at the strategic advisory firm DGA Group and a CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow.
Check out CNAS’ current internship and job opportunities at https://www.cnas.org/careers.
and read Michèle's recommendation:
A Passion for Leadership: Lessons on Change and Reform from Fifty Years of Public Service by Bob Gates.
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Join Emily Kilcrease and researcher Eleanor Hume to discuss the latest edition of CNAS's Sanctions by the Numbers series, examining how the U.S.'s sanctions policy on China has shifted under the Biden administration.
Find the full report and its findings here: Sanctions by the Numbers: Comparing the Trump and Biden Administrations’ Sanctions and Export Controls on China
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That escalated quickly! Emily and Geoff discuss why the U.S. aim to deny China access to the computing power necessary for frontier AI capabilities has led to an ever expanding set of new export controls. They are joined by Reed Albergotti of Semafor to talk about what this means for the Middle East's tech ambitions and by Pablo Chavez to share his analysis on the drive for sovereign AI around the world.
Check out Emily's remarks on America's evolving export control strategy and Reed's reporting from the Middle East: "How the UAE Got the U.S. to Bless its AI Ambitions" and U.S. Closer to Green Lighting NVIDIA Chips for Saudi Arabia.
Also read Pablo's two articles, Toward Digital Solidarity and Vassals vs. Rivals: The Geopolitical Future of AI Competition.
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Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, the European Union's Ambassador to the United States, joins Emily and Geoff for a wide-ranging conversation on Europe's growing role as a economic statecraft power, the importance of the transatlantic alliance in addressing the strategic challenges posed by Russia and China, and why all Americans should drink champagne
Ambassador Neliupšienė recommends listeners tune in to the Trade-Off podcast about the people, politics, and power inside Europe’s trade policy.
Further Reading:
EU Competitiveness: Looking Ahead (The Draghi Report)
Containing Crisis: Strategic Concepts for Coercive Economic Statecraft from CNAS
The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World by Anu Bradford
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NRC Media reporter Marc Hijink joined co-host Emily Kilcrease at a CNAS event to discuss his book, Focus: The ASML Way. For decades, ASML - the most valuable technology company in Europe - operated in the shadows, despite the fact that roughly 90 percent of all chips worldwide are made with ASML’s machines. In recent years, the Dutch manufacturing company has found itself at the center of a geopolitical storm between China and the United States and Europe. In this conversation, we delve into the history of the company, how it came to dominate the industry, and how it is navigating increasingly fraught geopolitical waters.
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Geoff and Emily talk about the tensions between social media platforms and governments around the world, including Telegram’s troubles in France and X’s spats with Brazil and Europe. Carrie Cordero, CNAS General Counsel and Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow, joins to talk TikTok and why it’s so complicated to ban the app in the United States.
Carrie Cordero is the Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow and General Counsel at CNAS. Her research and writing interests focus on homeland security and intelligence community oversight, transparency, surveillance, cybersecurity, and related national and homeland security law and policy issues.
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On this international episode of Derisky Business, recorded at the United States Studies Center in Sydney, Australia, Dr. Mike Green joins the podcast to discuss how Australia and other Pacific countries view economic security issues, what countries in the region think about the U.S. presidential election, and how he is preparing for armageddon.
Mike’s Recommended Reading/Listening: Planning Armageddon: British Economic Warfare and the First World War, The Empire Podcast
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Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss his new book, co-authored with Robert Blackwill, Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, and his fever dreams for a trade agreement in Asia.
Richard Fontaine is the Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security. Prior to coming to CNAS, he was foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain and worked at the State Department, the National Security Council, and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Richard's recommended reading
Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power by Richard Fontaine and Robert Blackwill
The Rise and Fall of the Economic Pivot to Asia by Richard Fontaine and Robert Blackwill
The Price of Nostalgia, Adam Posen
Fundamentals: Ten Keys to Reality by Frank Wilczek
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Dan Rosen, leading expert on China's economy and head of the Rhodium Group's China practice, joins Emily and Geoff to talk about the recently concluded third plenum meetings in China, what China's economy wants to be when it grows up, and the impacts of China's economic downturn on U.S.-China relations.
Emily Kilcrease is senior fellow and program director in the Energy, Economics, & Security Program at the CNAS. Her research focuses on economic statecraft and economic security.
Geoff Gertz is senior fellow in the Energy, Economics, & Security Team at the Center for a New American Security. His research focuses on technology competition, digital policy and data governance, and geoeconomics.
Read new research from the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security team: Sanctions by the Numbers: 2023 Year in ReviewDisorderly Conduct: How U.S.-China Competition Upended the International Economic Order & What the U.S. Can Do to Fix It
Dan's Recommended Reading: Forging a Positive Vision of Economic Statecraft by Daleep Singh.
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Emily and Geoff discuss the U.S. presidential election and what that might mean for economic security policy. They get into trade policy, what both candidates would do to compete with China, and where U.S. partners and allies fit in to both candidates' vision.
Emily Kilcrease is senior fellow and program director in the Energy, Economics, & Security Program at the CNAS. Her research focuses on economic statecraft and economic security.
Geoff Gertz is senior fellow in the Energy, Economics, & Security Team at the Center for a New American Security. His research focuses on technology competition, digital policy and data governance, and geoeconomics.
Read new research from the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security team: Sanctions by the Numbers: 2023 Year in ReviewDisorderly Conduct: How U.S.-China Competition Upended the International Economic Order & What the U.S. Can Do to Fix It
- Visa fler
