Avsnitt
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Britain has spent a century as a two-party country. That may be over - and this week's local elections may be the strongest signal yet of a big breakup.
This week, I talk with Matthew Price, analyst and strategist at Focal Data in London, about what's happening to British politics right now — and what the polls are (and aren't) able to tell us about it. They cover what the 2024 MRP polls got wrong about Labour's vote share, how public polling shapes voter behavior (including the Conservative "stop the supermajority" strategy), the unprecedented rise of five-party competition in a system built for two, and why the modeling tools that defined the last election may not be up to the next one. This episode is a shorter one to provide some background to the elections this week - a follow-up episode on MRP methodology and UK polling institutions is coming soon.
Our Guest
Matthew Price is a Research Manager in Focaldata's Analytics team. He previously worked as a pollster at Deltapoll, and has contributed political analysis to BBC Radio, Newsnight, and the Channel 4 election night coverage. Matthew holds a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of Oxford and an MPhil in Philosophy from Trinity College Dublin. You can follow him on Bluesky at @matthewbprice.bsky.social.
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
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What happens when the people making decisions on your behalf are running on fumes? In this episode, I talk with Lindsay Scola — former advance person for Barack Obama, Hill staffer, and now sleep health educator — about the always-on culture of American political life, and what it actually costs us. From the Celsius cans visible in every Capitol hallway walk-and-talk, to the pharmacy hand-delivering Alzheimer's medications to sitting members of Congress, to a president who prowls Air Force One checking who's asleep: the evidence that our leaders aren't getting enough rest is hiding in plain sight. Lindsay brings both the insider perspective and the science — and the result is a conversation that reframes sleep not as a personal wellness choice, but as a matter of democratic consequence.
About Our GuestLindsay Scola began her career in politics the way a lot of people do: convinced it was a calling. Her first job was on the Hill, working for a congressman. From there, she joined the Obama campaign in 2007 as an advance person — one of the people responsible for building events from scratch ahead of the candidate, managing crowds of up to 75,000 people, then getting on a plane and doing it all over again somewhere new. She went on to work in the Obama administration and in entertainment before a diagnosis at age 35 changed the direction of her work entirely. After 19 years of symptoms being dismissed by doctors, Lindsay was diagnosed with narcolepsy — and spent the years since becoming an expert in what sleep actually does, and what we lose without it. She now works as a sleep health educator, offering one-on-one coaching, corporate talks, and an online course designed to help people understand their own sleep on their own terms. She is also the author of AI for ADHD: A Practical Guide for Starting and Actually Finishing the Things That Matter.
🔗 lindsayscola.com
ReferencesOn the caffeine culture of Capitol Hill:
The U.S. government runs on Celsius — The Washington PostOn the pharmacy that hand-delivers prescriptions to Congress — including Alzheimer's medications:
An old-school pharmacy hand-delivers drugs to Congress — Stat News / PBS NewsHourDC pharmacist provides Alzheimer's drugs for members of Congress — Metro USOn cognitive decline among senior officials as a national security concern:
Pentagon-Funded Study Warns Dementia Among U.S. Officials Poses National Security Threat — The InterceptOn President Trump's sleep habits and their effect on staff:
‘The Superhuman President’ A good-faith attempt to ascertain the truth about Donald Trump’s health — New York MagazineAs Signs of Aging Emerge, Trump Responds With Defiance — The Wall Street JournalInside Trump’s Air Force One: ‘It’s like being held captive’ — CNN.comOn the White House Medical Unit's distribution of stimulants and sleep aids:
Trump's White House Was 'Awash in Speed' — and Xanax — Rolling StoneWhite House Medical Unit's 'severe and systemic' drug problems detailed — The Washington PostWhite House clinic improperly distributed controlled substances — NBC News
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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The Roper Center at Cornell holds the world's oldest social science archive — over 25,000 data sets, nearly 900,000 survey questions, dating all the way back to the 1930s. It's a record not just of politics and elections, but of ordinary life: have you ever spent a night in jail? Would you tell a five-year-old not to lie about seeing a purple dragon? Do you remember the color of your first love's eyes?
Kathleen Weldon, Roper's Director of Data and Communications, joins me to talk about what the archive reveals — and what it's missing. We cover a lot of ground - from Cold War surveys that tracked global opinions about American civil rights, to the women who built polling from the ground up but rarely got credit, to the data destroyed to protect respondents from the Nazis, to how pollsters understood the power not only to measure, but to shape public opinion from the very beginning.
About Kathleen:
Kathleen Weldon is the Director of Data Operations and Communications at the Roper Center. She joined the Roper Center in 2014 as Research Coordinator. Kathleen manages data provider relations, oversees the data curation process, plans archival development, and works closely with the IT development team in building new user tools. A graduate of Wesleyan University with a BA in English, she started her career in public opinion at Harvard University designing surveys with media and foundation partners.
The Roper Center can be found here: https://ropercenter.cornell.edu
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
📨 You can also email me directly at [email protected]
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In this episode, I sit down with Charlie Sabgir to unpack the "unprecedented gender gap" facing Gen Z. We dive into new research concerning the economic and social behaviors of young men—from the "gamification" of their finances through crypto and sports betting to their surprising nostalgia for unions and traditional stability. The conversation explores why the "manosphere" is winning the narrative war by offering concrete (if sometimes toxic) life advice, and how a positive reframing of masculinity—centered on serving the community—might be the key to re-engaging a generation that feels politically apathetic and economically "screwed."
Charlie Sabgir is the Program Director for the Young Men Research Project, a research organization that studies the political and social trends among young men. He also writes for the Young Men Research Initiative Substack.
Follow their work and read their research here: https://www.ymrp.org/polling
Subscribe to the substack here: https://youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com
Key Topics & Takeaways:
• The Crypto Paradox: Why holding crypto and sports betting isn't just for the "basement dweller"—it’s becoming a "middle finger to the system" for employed, high-earning young men who feel traditional wealth-building tools (like 401ks) are too slow.
• The Craving for Stability: Unlike the "hustle culture" pitched to Millennials, Gen Z men are showing a strong preference for the stability of unions and apprenticeships over the uncertainty of internships and college debt.
• The AI Gender Gap: Men are approaching AI with excitement and frequent use, while young women report significantly higher levels of anxiety regarding the technology.
• Redefining "Toughness": Message testing reveals that young men respond much better to masculinity defined as "fighting for your community" and "uplifting those around you" (+21 points) than they do to "anti-woke" grievance rhetoric.
• Political Apathy vs. Engagement: Why young men are less likely to vote than women, and why successful campaigns are using "fun" community events (like scavenger hunts or UFC watch parties) to bridge the gap.
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
📨 You can also email me directly at [email protected]
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It's likely that Democrats will retake the House this fall. But the most important question for a new majority is this: what will they use the power for?
This conversation is part of an ongoing series of interviews and explorations I plan to do this year trying to answer a slightly modified version of that question - what should the power be for?
One answer to that question is paid leave for all. In 1993, the Clinton Administration and a Democratic-controlled Congress passed FMLA - the Family and Medical Leave Act, protecting workers with unpaid family leave. Since then, paid leave has become steadily more and more popular, and very nearly passed during the Biden Administration.
Our guest this week is Dawn Huckelbridge, the founding director of Paid Leave for All and founder of Paid Leave PAC. With a career spanning gender policy, political organizing, and communications, she has successfully built and led campaigns to advance paid leave and gender equity across the country.
We discussed what's at stake, their approach to getting The Family Act passed, what they've learned in their polling about support for paid family leave from across the socioeconomic spectrum, how states are leading, and what the movement is up against.
Our Guest
Dawn Huckelbridge is the founding director of Paid Leave for All, a position she has held since 2019. With a career spanning gender policy, political organizing, and communications, she has successfully built and led campaigns to advance paid leave and gender equity across the country.
Previously, Dawn served as Communications Director for Supermajority during its launch and Senior Director of the Women’s Rights Initiative at American Bridge. During the 2016 election cycle, she served as Coordinated Program Director for Community Outreach Group at Planned Parenthood Action Fund, where she directed a team to execute the organization’s largest coordinated campaigns in battleground states. Dawn has also held senior roles with People For the American Way, the Center for Women Policy Studies, and the Barbara Lee Family Foundation and Political Office.
She holds a master’s degree in gender and social policy from the London School of Economics and Political Science and a bachelor’s degree in communications and political science from Northwestern University. Her background in political and issue communications includes work with GMMB and various political and public interest projects. Dawn founded the Paid Leave PAC in 2022 and has served on the boards of several organizations, including Emerge Massachusetts, Family Values @ Work Action, and the DC Abortion Fund.
Dawn’s expertise and leadership have earned her publications in outlets such as Newsweek, The Hill, The Nation, Glamour, and Marie Claire, and she has appeared on radio and network and cable TV.
Further Reading
"Americans Widely Support Paid Family and Medical Leave, but Differ Over Specific Policies" via Pew Research, March 2017
"New Poll Finds Strong Small Business Support for Paid Family and Medical Leave Policies" via National Partnership for Women & Families and Lake Research, October 2024
More poll findings here: https://nationalpartnership.org/report/small-businesses-support-national-paid-family-medical-leave-program/"Creating a Nationwide Paid Leave Program and Bolstering Medicare’s Negotiating Power are Overwhelmingly Popular" via Navigator Research, September 2024
"Dads & Bonding Leave in State Paid Leave Programs", research via Paid Leave for All, June 2025
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
📨 You can also email me directly at [email protected]
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Cross Tabs End Notes
The hardest thing to do in polling it seems is to accurately guess who the voters will be. Pollsters get better and better at weighting samples to more accurately reflect observable characteristics of voters, which is why the forecasts keep getting close to the center of the bullseye. But there are still these harder to observe characteristics that it's almost impossible to model... unless you can figure out what they are.
So here's an idea - what if, instead of just throwing up our hands, we found a way to poll people who don't want to be polled?
Kabir Khanna of CBS News did just that - and he came on to talk to me all about what they did, and what they learned.
About the Guest
Kabir Khanna, Ph.D., is Director, Election Analytics & Technical Systems at CBS News. He produces stories on elections, polling, and politics, making sure they are based on best practices and innovations in quantitative social science. He ensures surveys and statistical estimates are representative and accurate, and breaks down results on air. On election nights, he projects races for the network and manages the Data Desk, generating insights into the electorate in real time, as well as estimates of turnout, how ballots are cast, and key voter groups.
Stuff We Talked About
"The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York: CBS News analysis"
"1 year in, Americans call for more inflation focus from Trump, CBS News poll finds"
Polling at a Crossroads, by Michael Bailey
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
📨 You can also email me directly at [email protected]
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We're living in a time ruled by old men.
And honestly, it's not going great. The richest, most powerful men on the planet - billionaires and political leaders alike - are well over 70, on average.
Meanwhile, young people are suffering from the high cost of living, unaffordable housing, high consumer debt, and political unrest.
Based on recent polling, they're not happy.
The right has made a long term investment in their political goals. The left has not.
That's where Amanda Litman and her organization, Run for Something come in - helping to get people under 40 elected to local office. They've been incredibly successful, and are now focused on battleground states and other places in which Democrats have historically underinvested, as well as encouraging renters to run for office.
Our GuestAmanda Litman is the co-founder and president of Run for Something, which recruits and supports young, diverse progressives running for down-ballot office. Since launching in 2017, RFS has elected more than 1500 leaders across nearly all 50 states, mostly women and people of color.
She’s also president of RFS Civics, a 501c3 that works to end the gerontocracy.
She is also the author of Run for Something: A Real-Talk Guide to Fixing the System Yourself, published by Atria in 2017. Her new book, When We’re in Charge: The Next Generation’s Guide to Leadership, came out in May 2025 from Crooked Media Reads.
Also Referenced"Dems Struggle to Make Their Moderates Go Viral" by Lauren Egan in The Bulwark
"The Voters Who Have Taken a U-Turn on Trump" by Nate Cohn of The New York Times
Cross tabs from their study with Siena College"Run for Something Launches Battle Up Strategy"
"Run for Something Mobilizes Renters to Run for Office"
"How Aftyn Behn Shattered Expectations in a Deep Red District"
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
📨 You can also email me directly at [email protected]
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There's an unreality about this political moment. It makes it hard to hold people's attention, to create any kind of focus on any issue or event or action. People don't know what's real, what's certain, what's not just for dumb show.
And that is both by design, and the output, of totalitarian thinking. Aesthetics are ever-present in politics - the color of a suit, or whether someone even wears one can fill a news cycle and constitute a scandal. Fascist and authoritarian ideologies are aesthetic all the way down. They are both authentically held by people who can not tolerate discomfort with themselves, other people, the way things are, or the way things seem to be headed... and they are a convenient cover for people who have real material goals and know that spectacle will dazzle people long enough for them to get away with just about anything.
And this has me obsessing about one of my favorite books, The Unbearable Lightness of Being, and working through it in a conversation with Cy Canterel, a feral scholar, TikToker, and writer who thinks a lot about systems, aesthetics, sense-making, and how it all works.
In the aftermath of Charlie Kirk's killing, I reached out to Cy to talk about kitsch - something she has written about, and about her concept of a Hater's Discourse, and how this might explain the moment we're currently in.
And then I revisited some of that conversation after the incursion into Venezuela and the murder of Renee Nicole Good. It felt like the right time to talk about this, given that it seems like we're all struggling with how to reckon with real things that seem fake.
Some links for your enjoyment:
Cy's piece on Kitsch: https://open.substack.com/pub/cybelecanterel/p/lost-in-the-kingdom-of-kitsch
Cy's piece on the Hater's Discourse: https://cybelecanterel.substack.com/p/a-haters-discourse
Cy's video on Blackpill Aesthetics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wcw02sEslog
Ryan Broderick's piece on Garbage Day, "The Rise of the Troll State": https://www.garbageday.email/p/the-rise-of-the-troll-state
Don Moynihan's piece on Can We Still Govern?, "Life Under a Clicktocracy": https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/life-under-a-clicktatorship
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
📨 You can also email me directly at [email protected]
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Conor Kilgore is a producer of The Focus Group Podcast, and a qualitative researcher at Longwell Partners - and he joined host Farrah Bostic to discuss the value of listening to real people talk about their real beliefs and experiences in their own words. And he brought clips! We also discussed his journey into this work via work on political campaigns, and got as deep into the weeds as possible on how they do what they do.
Subscribe to The Bulwark here: https://www.thebulwark.com
Subscribe to The Focus Group Podcast here: https://www.thebulwark.com/s/thefocusgroup
Find out more about Longwell Partners here: https://www.longwellpartners.com
And find out more about Conor here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/conorkilgore/
Stay in Touch📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.
📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
📨 You can also email me directly at [email protected]
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Keeping up our monthly Mood Swings discussion of polling and political strategy news that enrages, confuses, and inspires, host Farrah Bostic and guest Lauren Goldstein discuss the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, which explores American voters' opinions on a wide range of current events. We discussed the question types, answer options, and interpretation of the fairly extensive data - and beg researchers to remember how important it is to provide respondents with 'not sure' or 'don't care' or 'never heard of it' options to gauge true public sentiment.
We also talked about how brands deal with trends or issues that might be salient - but also controversial.
And this month's What's Good focused on the power of satire, humor, and fighting content with content.
Our Guest
Lauren Goldstein is the lead advocacy pollster for Change Research and holds a PhD from UCLA with ten years of experience as a public opinion researcher and social scientist. She has done extensive research and polling on issues related to racial justice (and injustice), criminal legal reform and police divestment, immigration, and reproductive rights. She is the author of the Mind the Gap newsletter.
What we were talking about was...
Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll December 2025 - https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/HHP_Dec2025_KeyFindings.pdfJordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse: Give the Man a Prize - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdvSonnYw-E"The hidden axis: the left-right spectrum has a non-ideology problem" by G. Elliott Morris, Strength in Numbers - https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-left-vs-right-most-voters
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
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Farrah is joined by Kevin Collins, co-founder and Chief Research Officer at Survey 160, about the applicability of AI in survey methodologies, the perils of synthetic sample, and the importance of respondent preferences when it comes to survey mode and the respondent experience. We discussed Kevin's findings in some early explorations of available tools about the impact on data quality, the potential role of AI in coding open-ended survey responses, and where there might be opportunity for AI tools to support but not replace human expertise.
We also explored an issue we both have some opinions about - the concept of 'popularism' in political campaigning, how it intersects with different styles of persuasion, and how it influences other decision-making in how campaigns roll out messaging.
Our Guest
Kevin Collins is co-founder and Chief Research Office at Survey 160, a polling firm working to make SMS-based survey collection a staple mode of research to help fuel progressive campaigns. Survey 160 works with high-profile political campaigns at both the national and state level, as well as advocacy organizations and other groups working for a brighter future. You can connect with him on Bluesky @kwcollins.bsky.social or through their website at https://www.survey160.com/
Read their work on AI in survey methods here: The Limits of Simulation in Public Opinion Research
Other Sources Mentioned
Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples, by Argyle et alPredicting Results of Social Science Experiments Using Large Language Models, by Hewitt et alSynthetic Replacements for Human Survey Data? The Perils of Large Language Models, by Bisbee et alDo AIs know what the most important issue is? Using language models to code open-text social survey responses at scale, by Mellon et alContext Length Alone Hurts LLM Performance Despite Perfect Retrieval, by Du et alDoes AI Actually Boost Developer Productivity? (100k Devs Study) - Yegor Denisov-Blanch, Stanford [video]Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties, by Krause et alThe Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, by John R. Zaller [book]Consuming Cross-Cutting Media Causes Learning and Moderates Attitudes: A Field Experiment with Fox News Viewers, by David E. Broockman and Joshua L. Kalla
Stay in Touch📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
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In this episode of Cross Tabs, host Farrah Bostic discusses the intricacies of the current political climate and the emotional toll with guest Lauren Goldstein, author of the 'Mind the Gap' newsletter. The conversation touches on the overwhelming events of the last month, including ICE raids, National Guard actions, and the shutdown. Lauren shares her own struggles with the civic mood and together they explore the concept of thermostatic public opinion and the pitfalls of modern political strategy, including the need for a more authentic and proactive approach. But all is not lost! We discuss the necessity for Democrats to focus on how to not merely win the next election, but to build a better future grounded in authenticity, intentionality, and a shared vision.
Our Guest
Lauren Goldstein is the lead advocacy pollster for Change Research and holds a PhD from UCLA with ten years of experience as a public opinion researcher and social scientist. She has done extensive research and polling on issues related to racial justice (and injustice), criminal legal reform and police divestment, immigration, and reproductive rights. She is the author of the Mind the Gap newsletter.
Stay in Touch📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
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Today on the show, we are diving deep into the fast changing world of political campaigns with someone who's had a front row seat to its transformation. Dr. Michael D. Cohen is the CEO of Cohen Research Group. A leading firm at the intersection of politics, public affairs, and corporate strategy.
He's the creator of the Congress in your Pocket suite of AI powered mobile apps, and teaches digital political strategy at Johns Hopkins and NYU. He's also the author of Modern Political Campaigns now in its second edition with a. Timely new chapter on artificial intelligence. In this conversation, Dr.
Cohen walks me through the evolution of campaigns from loosely organized operations to today's high speed tech enabled data-driven, consultant driven machines. We talk about how strategy has shifted from relying. Solely on polling to navigating a complex web of information sources. We also explore the rising importance of crisis communication, the fine line between authenticity and brand control, and the double-edged sword of AI in campaign operations.
It's a candid, clear-eyed look at the machinery behind modern elections and what it means for democracy, strategy, and the future of campaigning.
Our GuestMICHAEL D. COHEN, PH.D. is CEO of Cohen Research Group a leading political, public affairs, and corporate research firm. He publishes the pioneering Congress in Your Pocket suite of AI-driven mobile apps and teaches courses at Johns Hopkins University and New York University on digital political strategy and political campaigning. He is the author of Modern Political Campaigns: How Professionalism, Technology, and Speed Have Revolutionized Elections, a second edition featuring a new chapter on artificial intelligence published in early 2025 with Bloomsbury. After running political campaigns in college, Dr. Cohen served in leadership positions at The Gallup Organization, Microsoft, USA Facts, and Purple Strategies, as well as two political polling firms. He is a three-time graduate of the University of Florida with degrees in mass communications and political science, and he a member of its leadership Hall of Fame.
Sources Mentioned:The Power and the Money by Tevi Troy
"How Strategist Brain Took Over the Democratic Party" by Ben Mathis-Lilley in Slate
Campaigns & Elections Magazine
The "Harry & Louise" Ads via C-SPAN on YouTube
Jake Rush's appearance on The Colbert Report via the Internet Archive
"Why CMOs Never Last" by Kimberly A. Whitler and Neil A. Morgan in Harvard Business Review
Congress In Your Pocket
Modern Political Campaigns by Michael D. Cohen
Michael D. Cohen's personal website linking to his projects and CV
Cohen Research Group
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
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Farrah Bostic talks with G. Elliott Morris, the founder of Strength in Numbers (and author of a book by the same name) to discuss the evolution of data journalism and the critical role of public opinion polling in a healthy democracy. Morris, formerly of The Economist and FiveThirtyEight, shares his vision for a new era of "pollster-driven poll journalism" and how he aims to fill a crucial gap in the media landscape.
We also discussed Strength in Numbers' July Poll, which looked at everything from Trump's approval numbers, to Democrats' weakness on the generic ballot, to the unpopularity of specific provisions of the reconciliation bill, to how people feel about third parties (and Musk's third party specifically).
A core feature of these polls is that Morris takes suggestions from his community for questions to put on the polls - which means that the public gets a say in what we put on public opinion surveys for once.
You can check out the latest July poll from Strength in Numbers (and subscribe) here: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-dems-lead-house-generic
You can also find his book, Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them here: https://wwnorton.com/books/strength-in-numbers
Our Guest
Elliott Morris is a data-driven journalist and author living in Washington, DC. He is the author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them, a book about public opinion polling and democracy which was published in 2022 by W. W. Norton.
Elliott was most recently the Editorial Director of Data Analytics at ABC News, where he developed polling aggregation and election-forecasting models and managed the research and data visualization teams for ABC’s data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight/538. He was a regular guest on the network’s broadcast and streaming news programs providing political analysis on notable events and upcoming elections.
He is the founder of Strength in Numbers, a data-driven news website that provides regular analysis of national politics and elections in the United States.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business.
Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes.
Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
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On July 1, I sat down to talk to Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig from Pew Research about their 2024 Validated Voter Survey.
We talked about the challenges of analyzing elections using panel data, and about the shifts in makeup of the electorate between 2020 and 2024, and what that means for how campaigns think about balancing turnout and persuasion strategies. More than anything, they tell us, mobilization is a result of campaigning. You gotta play to win.
Links:How Changes in Turnout and Vote Choice Powered Trump’s Victory in 2024
Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory, a More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter Coalition
Commercial Voter Files and the Study of U.S. Politics
My interview with L2 about their approach to assembling the voter file: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000651891510
My interview with Michael McDonald discussing turnout models and his Election Project: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000666055702
The Red Shift Maps from NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.html
Hank Green's response video to the red shift maps: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC9u7NZbGlQ)
David Shor on Ezra Klein talking about changing demographics in the MAGA coalition: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/democrats-need-to-face-why-trump-won/id1548604447?i=1000699618199
Our Guests:
Hannah Hartig is a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, where she primarily studies U.S. political attitudes and voting behavior. She has authored analyses on topics including domestic opinions of the U.S., voter turnout in 2020 and views of abortion. Prior to joining the Center, she was director of research at the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies at the University of Pennsylvania. She regularly discusses the Center’s political research with the news media and has served as an election night exit poll analyst for NBC News since 2014. Hartig received her bachelor’s in foreign affairs from the University of Virginia and master’s degree in quantitative politics from the University of Pennsylvania.
Scott Keeter is a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center. In this role, he provides methodological guidance to all of Pew Research Center’s research areas. An expert on American public opinion and political behavior, he is co-author of four books, including What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters (Yale University Press), A New Engagement? Political Participation, Civic Life, and the Changing American Citizen (Oxford University Press), The Diminishing Divide: Religion’s Changing Role in American Politics (Brookings Institution Press), ** and Uninformed Choice: The Failure of the New Presidential Nominating System (Praeger). He has also published numerous articles on survey methodology. Prior to joining Pew Research Center, he taught at George Mason University, Rutgers University and Virginia Commonwealth University, where he also directed a survey research center. Keeter is a graduate of Davidson College and received his doctorate in political science from the University of North Carolina. He is a past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). In 2016, Keeter won AAPOR’s highest honor, the AAPOR Award for Lifetime Achievement, for “outstanding contributions to the field of public opinion research.”
You can follow their work, and even donate to support Pew’s Research, at pewresearch.org
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📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast
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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
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In this episode, Farrah Bostic is joined by messaging strategist, author, and Words to Win By host Anat Shenker-Osorio for a wide-ranging and incisive conversation about political communication, campaign strategy, and why so much of what the Democratic Party does feels like a missed opportunity.
Together, they explore:
How Anat’s early fascination with language and justice led her to a career in cognitive linguistics and progressive messaging.Why most political message testing (RCTs, MaxDiff, etc.) fails to reflect how real people encounter campaigns — and what to do instead.The danger of focusing on persuasion over mobilization, and why “say what you’re for” is the most important rule in campaign comms.How Democrats lost their working-class identity, and why organizing — not polling — is the only way to win it back.The power of persuasion windows and how the left can seize — or squander — them.This episode is a must-listen for anyone working in politics, messaging, organizing, or simply trying to make change in a noisy, distracted, and deeply unequal world.
🔗 Resources & Mentions:
ASO Communications – Open-source messaging guides and researchWords to Win By podcastDon't Buy It: The Trouble with Talking Nonsense About the Economy Follow Anat on BlueSky and Substack📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.
📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast
💬 Follow us on BlueSky: @crosstabspod.bsky.social
📍 Produced by The Difference Engine
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After a brief break, Cross Tabs returns with a must-hear conversation between host Farrah Bostic and journalist-pollster Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN’s Editor of Polling and Election Analytics. Ariel shares insights from over a decade of political polling and reporting, shedding light on how polls get designed, interpreted, and communicated—and why public opinion is more nuanced, contradictory, and dynamic than we often assume.
📌 Topic Highlights
How polling serves as a form of large-scale journalismQuestion design, framing effects, and the limits of hypothetical pollingExpressive responding and partisanship’s effect on perceptionThe challenge of polling on emerging topics like AI and cryptoWhy polls often fail to capture what people mean when they talk about democracy, education, or trust in governmentWhat polling reveals—and obscures—about voter discontent with both parties👤 About Our Guest
Ariel Edwards-Levy is the Editor of Polling and Election Analytics at CNN. Previously, she was a senior reporter and polling editor at HuffPost. She is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and was awarded the 2019 Carey McWilliams Award by the American Political Science Association for her journalistic contributions to understanding politics. You can follow her work (and jokes!) on Bluesky.
🔗 Mentioned Resources
CNN Polling Hub: https://www.cnn.com/politics/polling-centerCNN/SSRS polling report: "A record share of Americans want the government to get more done": https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/08/politics/poll-government-done-party-trustThe Breakthrough Project (CNN, Georgetown, Michigan, SSRS, Verasight): https://breakthrough.cnn.comPew Research on AI: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/28/how-the-us-public-and-experts-view-artificial-intelligenceRoper Center for Public Opinion Archives: https://ropercenter.cornell.eduBrian Schaffner’s research on expressive responding: https://sites.tufts.edu/brianschaffner/publications/📣 Stay Connected
Like what you heard?
✔️ Subscribe to Cross Tabs wherever you get your podcasts
✔️ Rate and review the show—it helps others find us
✔️ Follow the show on BlueSky
✔️ Watch full episodes on YouTube
✔️ Sign up for the free weekly newsletter: https://crosstabspodcast.com
✔️ Follow Farrah Bostic on BlueSky
✔️ Learn more at: https://thedifferenceengine.co
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We've been off for about a month. But we've been busy.
Check out our new trailer, and don't forget to like and subscribe to get new episodes each Wednesday.
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The wealth divide is reshaping consumer markets, with 10% of households now driving 50% of all consumer spending in America while the majority struggle with inflation and debt. This economic distortion, hidden by misleading averages, is now colliding with new international tariffs that threaten to remove entire categories of goods from store shelves.
In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah interviews brand strategist Faris Yakob about how misunderstood economic metrics mask the real consumer experience. They discuss how the stock market crash will impact wealthy consumers who've been propping up economic growth, why statistical averages are increasingly misleading when wealth distribution looks nothing like a bell curve, and how political polarization mirrors these economic divisions. Yakob provides fascinating context for why so many Americans feel economically squeezed despite positive macroeconomic indicators.
Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:
- Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app
- Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!
- Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show
Resources
Mar-a-Lago Accord
American Time Use Survey
The Road to Somewhere by David Goodhart
'What the Comfort Class Doesn't Get' by Xochitl Gonzalez in The Atlantic
“Strands of Genius” newsletter by Faris Yakob
Paid Attention by Faris Yakob
Our Guest
Faris is the co-founder of Genius Steals, a nomadic creative consultancy that works with brands, agencies and events. He and his partner Rosie speak at conferences and corporate events all over the world and have been living nomadically in between engagements for the last 7 years.
Previously he held senior agency roles at Naked Communications, McCann and MDC Partners, in London, Sydney and NYC. He is the author of Paid Attention: Innovative Advertising, writes a monthly column on effective brand communication, and bylines include Fast Company, Financial Times, The Guardian, Economic Times of India Brand Equity, and Campaign.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business.
Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes.
Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.
Subscribe to Cross Tabs
Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:
Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Educational attainment has become the new fault line in American politics, creating unexpected coalitions that cross racial boundaries. Research reveals a surprising shift of working-class voters across all demographics toward populist candidates who promise to fight for their interests rather than cater to college-educated elites.
Political researcher Patrick Ruffini, co-founder of Echelon Insights and author of Party of the People, discusses these findings in this conversation with Farrah. Ruffini explains how the Democratic coalition has fractured along educational rather than economic lines, with cultural values becoming increasingly decisive in voting behavior. This analysis shows the disconnect between political elites and mainstream voters, highlighting an underlying optimism among immigrant and working-class communities that starkly contrasts with the pessimism often expressed by college-educated whites.
Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:
- Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app
- Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!
- Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show
Resources
‘Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP’
Echelon Insights
The Intersection
Growth and Opportunity Project Report
David Shor's Diploma Divide Hypothesis
Political Inequality in Affluent Democracies: The Social Welfare Deficit
What if the US Were a Multi-Party Democracy?
Our Guest
Patrick Ruffini is a founding partner at Echelon Insights, one of the most widely recognized public opinion and strategic research firms in the United States.
Patrick is the author of ‘Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP,’ called “the book that predicted the 2024 election” by The New York Times and ranked as a Best Book in Politics by the Wall Street Journal.
An expert in political realignment and demographic trends, Patrick is a prolific speaker, writer, and political commentator. He has offered on-air analysis, including on election nights, for CNBC, Fox News, the BBC, and NPR and written for The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Time, The Atlantic, and Politico, among others.
Patrick has led hundreds of strategic communications, survey, data analytics, and focus group projects for Fortune 500 companies, leading foundations and advocacy groups, and political campaigns nationally and internationally.
Since Patrick co-founded Echelon Insights in 2014, the firm has been known for its innovative approach and accurate track record. It was ranked one of the three most accurate private polling firms in the country by 538 and is one of the most-awarded polling and data firms in the country by the American Association of Political Consultants and Campaigns & Elections.
Before starting Echelon Insights, Patrick led one of the country’s premier digital strategy and communications firms, Engage, and served in senior roles at the Republican National Committee and for President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign.
Patrick is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and lives with his family in the Washington, D.C. suburbs.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business.
Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes.
Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.
Subscribe to Cross Tabs
Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:
Apple Podcasts Spotify
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