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Henry Hao, Principal Economist at CRU, discusses structural shifts of China’s role in the global commodity market.
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Wei Yu, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s coal mining industry.
(00:00) - Introduction(00:34) - View on coal prices(02:00) - Debt reduction(03:21) - Financial burden and structural challenges(06:10) - Financing conditions(07:23) - Energy transition risks -
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Dr. Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, discusses China-ASEAN trade ties focusing on key policy issues, supply chain diversification trends, and the outlook for the trade relationship amid rising geopolitical risks.
(00:00) - Introduction(04:43) - China-ASEAN Trade Trends(07:02) - Impact of RCEP(09:34) - Trade Policy Outlook(13:50) - China’s View of ASEAN Trade Relationship(16:26) - China’s Bilateral Surplus with ASEAN(19:43) - Shifting Supply Chains and Navigating US-China Trade Tensions(24:17) - How is China Protecting its ASEAN Trade Relationship from US-China Trade Tensions? -
Katie Chen, Senior Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s Big Four national asset management companies.
(00:00) - Introduction(01:30) - National AMCs' evolving risks(04:35) - 2024 sector credit outlook(06:49) - Government support stance (10:08) - Differentiation in government export (11:37) - National AMCs' policy role (14:06) - Change of ownership (16:44) - Rating action plan -
Jeremy Zook and Ying Wang, co-hosts of China Perspectives podcast, hold a fireside chat about China’s 2024 credit outlook.
(00:00) - Introduction(00:45) - 2024 macro view(02:53) - Property sector outlook(04:29) - Policy response(07:17) - Infrastructure investment growth(08:41) - Sovereign rating pressure(11:10) - LGFV sector outlook(13:31) - Corporate sector outlook(16:21) - Banking sector outlook(19:11) - Key things to watch out for -
Flora Zhu, Director in Fitch’s Corporate Research team in Beijing discusses shifting FDI and trade patterns by Chinese corporates in the context of global supply chain diversification.
(00:00) - Introduction(01:49) - Drivers of Outbound FDI(03:48) - Key FDI Destinations(06:04) - Sectors Driving Outbound FDI(08:39) - Outlook for Outbound FDI(10:29) - China’s Shifting Trade Patterns(12:53) - Intermediate Goods Exports(14:36) - Outlook for Chinese Firms’ Role in Global Supply Chains(16:52) - Geopolitical Risks(20:09) - Rating Implications for Chinese Corporates(22:25) - Conclusion -
Tyran Kam, Senior Director and Head of Fitch’s China Property team based in Hong Kong, shares outlook on the Chinese property market.
(00:00) - Introduction(00:47) - Current market state(04:04) - Comparison of China’s and Japan’s property markets(08:24) - Further policy move(09:26) - Who are the surviving developers(12:15) - Private developers’ financing access(13:50) - Defaulted developers’ debt restructuring -
Jingwei Jia, Associate Director at Sustainable Fitch, discusses the latest developments in China’s rapidly evolving onshore green bond market and the impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s national carbon market.
(00:00) - Introduction(01:42) - Overview of Sustainable Fitch(02:53) - Developments in China’s Green Bond Market(07:33) - Green Bond Market Performance and the “Greenium”(09:26) - Key Investor Concerns for Green Bonds(12:54) - China’s Carbon Market after the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(17:07) - Other Domestic Carbon Market Developments(20:27) - Conclusion -
Jeremy Zook, Fitch Ratings’ lead sovereign analyst for China, is joining China Perspectives as a co-host. Prior to this role, he was the lead analyst for several countries in APAC. Jeremy’s first show is coming up soon. Stay tuned.
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Charles Zhang, Director of Fitch’s China industrial corporates team, shares his insights on the risks and opportunities for Chinese construction companies amid the country’s economic slowdown, including structural challenges and transition plans.
(00:00) - Introduction(01:05) - Credit outlook on China’s construction sector(06:21) - Growth opportunities from infrastructure projects(09:39) - Construction companies’ transition strategy(13:00) - Long-term structural challenges(18:34) - Overseas opportunities(23:35) - Closing -
Jing Yang, Director of Fitch’s China Research Initiatives based in Shanghai, shares insight on China’s booming electric vehicles industry and Chinese automakers’ overseas diversification trends.
(00:00) - Introduction(01:18) - Growth drivers of China’s EV Market(05:45) - EV price wars(07:59) - Chinese EV brands’ competitive edge(09:53) - Can foreign and JV brands catch up?(11:02) - Evolving competitive landscape(14:00) - China’s EV exports(16:10) - Risks of Chinese automakers’ overseas strategy -
James MacDonald, Senior Director and Head of China Research at Savills based in Shanghai, shares first-hand experience and observations on the country’s residential, commercial, and industrial real estate markets. Through his professional lens as an 18-year industry veteran, James discusses the key structural changes in China’s real estate market and the broader economy.
(00:00) - Introduction(02:00) - China’s residential market condition(03:27) - Policy direction and stimuluses(07:15) - China’s commercial property market condition(10:42) - Oversupply risk in commercial property(14:00) - Investment trends in the office market(16:22) - Multinational companies’ China strategy shift(20:36) - China’s consumer market outlook(23:01) - “New Economy” real estate assets(25:48) - Growth potential for C-REITs(30:20) - Closing Remarks -
Alvin Cheng, Head of Fixed Income, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity International’s China WOFE, shares his views on China’s economic prospects in 2023 as well as risks and opportunities in the world’s second largest bond market.
(00:00) - Introduction(01:38) - China’s macroeconomic outlook and key investment themes in 2023(04:05) - Potential risks to China’s recovery(06:09) - Deflation and inflation risks(09:25) - China’s bond market opportunities for foreign asset managers(14:55) - Challenges for increasing credit exposure(19:18) - Improvement in credit risk pricing(21:49) - Market inefficiencies and structural challenges (23:34) - Fidelity’s approach to investing in LGFVs(27:48) - Corporate credit risk in 2023(29:55) - Closing remarks -
Jenny Huang, Deputy Head of China Research Initiatives at Fitch Ratings, shares her views on China’s consumption recovery prospects, including stimulus for growth, constraints, consumer behaviour changes, and implications for related companies.
(00:00) - Introduction(01:15) - China’s consumption recovery prospects(06:45) - Wage inflation risk(08:34) - Sub-segments’ performance(14:11) - Changing consumer behaviour(16:52) - E-tailing sector’s competitive landscape(20:35) - Consumption-led import demand -
Gene Ma, Head of China Research at the Institute of International Finance, shares his views on China’s 2023 macro outlook, including prospects for growth, consumption, inflation, and the top priorities for economic policymakers this year.
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Dominik Peschel, head of the Economics Unit at the Asian Development Bank’s Resident Mission in Beijing, discusses the bank’s recent working paper on China’s long-term growth prospects and their suggested reforms to increase potential growth.
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Colin Mansfield, Sector Head for US Gaming, Lodging & Leisure at Fitch Ratings, positions Macao’s elusive gaming recovery within a broader global industry backdrop, and sheds light on the recent tenders for Macao’s new gaming concessions.
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Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China, gives her latest views on the Chinese economy, with a focus on the property and labour markets, as well as the ongoing macro spillovers from the “zero Covid” policy.
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Jenny Huang, a senior director leading Fitch Ratings’ China corporate research team, discusses the key motivations and methods the Chinese authorities employ to support companies in financial distress, drawing from recent case studies.
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