Avsnitt
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Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 26th, two days before Zelenskyy's press conference with J.D. Vance and Trump in the White House.
Shashank Joshi (Defence Editor at The Economist) and Michael Horowitz (Biden's Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities, now back at Penn) come on the show to discuss:
Ukraine's Chances on the Battlefield: We revisit J.D. Vance's tweet war with Shashank where he claims Ukraine is fated to lose, highlighting how war is nonlinear and dependent on political cohesion, economic strength, and defense industrial capacity beyond just manpower.
Trump's Pivot to Putin: We try to think through what Trump is doing with Ukraine and Russia at the strategic level and what the long term and second order consequences are.
AI and the Future of Warfare: We discuss of how AGI would transform warfare, with Horowitz suggesting progress will be incremental rather than revolutionary, emphasizing government adoption challenges over 0 to 1 technical breakthroughs.
"Precise Mass" in Combat: Ukrainian forces have demonstrated how AI-guided drones achieving 80%+ hit rates have changed battlefield dynamics, introducing the concept of "precise mass" - lower-cost precision systems deployed at scale across domains including air, land, and sea. See Mike's Foreign Affairs piece on the topic here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/battles-precise-mass-technology-war-horowitz
Defense Innovation Challenges: Western bureaucratic processes severely impede military innovation, with Horowitz noting that reprogramming just 0.05% of the defense budget required over 40 congressional briefings, contrasting with Ukraine's wartime innovation speed and calling for acquisition reform.
Recommended Books:
Under the Nuclear Shadow by Fiona Cunningham
Army of None by Paul Scharre
Billion Dollar Spy by David Hoffman
Outtro Music:
Santigold, You'll Find a Way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IodbPh7RkBw
Vampire Weekend, Walcott: https://open.spotify.com/track/0BZY839qKXibapu4S0GYE2?si=7ecc773a95ee4d62
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Can sanctions really work? What lessons can we draw from US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and China in the 21st century?
To find out, we interviewed Eddie Fishman, a former civil servant at the Department of State and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia. His new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, is a gripping history of the past 20 years of American sanctions policy.
In this show, we’ll talk about…
The evolution of U.S. sanctions policy, from Iraq and Cuba to Iran and Russia,
How Reagan’s deal with the Saudis turned the dollar into an economic chokepoint,
The incredible success of sanctions against Iran, and how that playbook could have been used to punish Russia,
Historical lessons in enforcement that are relevant for export controls on China today,
The role of great civil servants like Stuart Levey, Daleep Singh, Victoria Nuland, and Matt Pottinger in building state power,
Institutional challenges for economic warfare and the consequences of failure to reform,
Strategies for writing groundbreaking books about modern history.
Outro music: 1970s Iranian Psychadelic Rock, Gole Yakhe by Kourosh Yaghmaei https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmhqVPXOKo4
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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How do patents influence emerging technology innovation? How far could AI and DOGE push our current IP regime? Does it matter that China issues way more patents than the US does?
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Andrei Iancu, who served as the director of the US Patent Office under the first Trump administration. Andrei has degrees in aerospace and mechanical engineering, and worked at the legendary Hughes Aircraft Company before going to law school. He is currently in private practice at Sullivan and Cromwell.
Co-hosting today is ChinaTalk editor and second year law student at Duke, Nicholas Welch.
We get into…
The mounting evidence that China's patent system now dominates America’s, and whether these indicators constitute an emergency in the innovation ecosystem,
Why some US companies now prefer Chinese courts for patent enforcement,
The fundamental tension between private rights of inventors and public access to innovations,
What congressional inaction on patent eligibility means for AI innovation, and the bills that congress could pass to immediately jumpstart emerging tech investment,
What the current administration could do to help USPTO juice the economy,
Controversy surrounding the Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB), and whether DOGE could put PTAB on the chopping block,
How Trump will approach patent law and intellectual property rights, including perspectives on appointments and potential reforms.
Thanks to CSIS for partnering with us to bring you this episode, the first in a three-episode CSIS Chip Chat series.
Outtro Music: Lil Green, I'm Going to Copyright Your Kisses (1941) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ye39JuJZ4k&ab_channel=LilGreen-Topic
Nellie Hill, I'm Gunna Copyright Your Kisses (1951) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3OcMdxpWas&ab_channel=krobigraubart
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How has Chinese hegemony shaped power relations in East Asia? Why did imperial China conquer Tibet and Xinjiang but not Vietnam or Korea? Can learning from history help maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait?
Today’s interview begins with one shocking truth — while medieval Europe suffered under near-constant war, East Asia’s Middle Ages were defined by great power peace.
To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Professor David C. Kang, director of the Korean Studies Institute at USC and co-author of Beyond Power Transitions: The Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of U.S.-China Relations.
We discuss…
How East Asian nations managed to peacefully coexist for centuries,
Why lessons from European history don’t always apply in non-European contexts,
Why wars begin and how they can be avoided,
How to interpret outbreaks of violence in Asia — including conflicts with the Mongols, China’s meddling in Vietnam, and Japan’s early attempts at empire,
State behaviors that cannot be explained by power transition theory alone,
Whether the Thucydides trap makes U.S.-China war inevitable,
Old school methods for managing cross-strait relations.
Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä of the On Humans podcast.
Outro music: 荒城の月 "The Moon over the Ruined Castle" by 滝廉太郎 Rentarō Taki (Youtube link)
Cover photo of a Song Dynasty axe-wielding god https://dragonsarmory.blogspot.com/2016/12/song-chinese-armor-in-religious.html
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Dylan Patel and Doug O'Laughlin (SemiAnalysis), Jon from Asianometry and I have way too much fun talking hyperscaler capex, the AI mandate of heaven tier list, and Tim Cook succession plans.
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Dario Amodei is the CEO of Anthropic. In today’s interview, we discuss…
Whether an AI innovation race is inevitable between the US and China,
How the US should update export controls in light of DeepSeek’s R1 release,
DeepSeek’s willingness to generate information about bioweapons,
Technical defenses against model distillation and AI espionage,
How advanced AI could eventually impact democracy,
Whether there is tension between export controls and the belief that AI will broadly increase human flourishing.
Dario's blogposts:
Machines of Loving Grace: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace
On DeepSeek and Export Controls: https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls
Outro Music: Lykke Li, I Follow Rivers (Magician Remix) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oS6wfWu0JvA&ab_channel=LykkeLi
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Kevin Xu of Interconnected and Interconnected Capital and I knock it out of the park with a roundup episode exploring:
What DeepSeek does and doesn't illustrate about Chinese innovation
Tensions between open-source cosmopolitanism and nationalism built into DeepSeek and the broader Chinese tech community
DeepSeek's organizational and talent management strategy, parallels to OpenAI, and what the fame will mean for the firm and Chinese AI policy
What DeepSeek should and may mean for the future of export controls and broader US innovation policy
The JS Tan article referenced: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/deepseeks-secret-to-success
Dario's first article on our happy AI future: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace
Dario's second article on why America needs to export control China: https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls
Outtro Music: Dizkar, 愛縂時刻盛開 https://open.spotify.com/track/1rXneAS9Djts7fwRGHUeG5?si=b2b29714802948de
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Miles Brundage, a six year OpenAI vet who ran its Policy Research and AGI readiness arms, discuss why all your deepseek takes are so terrible.
Outtro music: The Departure, Max Richter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R5Ppb9wqjY
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What makes some countries more innovative than others? What role do intellectual property rights play in building national power? Does Elon Musk really give competitors free access to Tesla’s patents?
To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Adam Mossoff, professor at the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University.
We discuss…
How the patent system has shaped American society since independence,
The extent to which patent policy caused the great divergence between the West and China,
Whether Elon’s misunderstanding of patents will become the dominant attitude of the second Trump administration,
The Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB) and other threats to the U.S. innovation ecosystem,
How to reconcile China’s IP theft with its robust domestic patent law,
What the U.S. can do to facilitate innovation while competing with China in emerging technology.
Outro Songs from the American Revolution:
Liberty Song (Arthur F. Schrader rendition), and the Tory retort, Come Shake Your Dull Noodles (Arthur F. Schrader rendition)
Thanks to the Innovation Alliance for sponsoring this episode. The Innovation Alliance is a coalition of research and development-based technology companies representing innovators, patent owners, and stakeholders who believe in the critical importance of maintaining a strong patent system that supports innovative enterprises of all sizes.
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Here's a best-of playlist for 2024: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3yexkG2kvPlq68B22pjOWw?si=da3d1cf64dfe4a2ci
Outtro Music: Дили-дили (Dili-dili) Artist: Гюлли Чохели (Gyulli Chokheli), 1967
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Our guest today is economist Noah Smith, who made time for an in-person interview during his recent trip to Taiwan. He runs the Noahpinion substack and is the author of an upcoming book on the revival of the Japanese economy.
We discuss…
The goals of Silicon Valley's pro-Trump constituency, from deregulation, to tariffs, to China policy,
Whether Elon is standing up for Taiwan behind closed doors,
Whether Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Poland need their own nuclear weapons,
How Taiwan could bargain for independence with China’s leaders post-Xi,
National health insurance as a potential solution to China’s aggregate demand problem,
A Georgist perspective on China’s real estate problem,
Why China’s demographic issues are overstated,
Recommendations for Taiwan’s economic development.
To hear more of Noah's musings, check out Econ 102, a podcast by Turpentine.
Outtro music: Wifey by Dizzy Dizzo 蔡詩芸 (Youtube Link)
Cover art: 清 冷枚 梧桐双兔图
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Greg Allen of CSIS and I are tired! We go through today's new export controls to stop TSMC from fabbing Huawei chips, some DRAM revisions, and discuss the past two years of Biden BIS policy and where we could all be going next.
Outtro music: 大雨 - deca joins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FFALDn1yGQ
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Biden last export control, for real this time! Who does and doesn't get to build datacenters under this new regulation?
To discuss, we brought on RAND's Lennart Heim, Jimmy Goodrich, Chris Miller, and Dylan Patel.
Outtro Music: Afida Es & the Siglap Boys - jangan goda, Malaysia, 1967 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvXrdwKST1U&ab_channel=schutbart
hasnah haron & the spiritual 70's _ bintang pujaan, Malaysia 1977 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4cMsoLttNs&ab_channel=nostalgiahassny
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Can diplomatic charisma prevent crises from escalating? Does the CCP feel conflicted about aligning with the likes of Iran and North Korea? What’s the use of communicating during a great power competition?
To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed R. Nicholas Burns, Biden’s Ambassador to China, whose diplomatic career spans 35 years and 8 countries.
We discuss…
Kissinger’s experience negotiating with the CCP,
Why China’s negotiating tactics are so different from those of the Soviet Union,
How European allies are helping to push back against Chinese aggression,
Great power responsibilities, and whether Chinese leaders truly appreciate the reputational costs of helping the Russians and the Houthis,
Biden’s victories with new partners in the Pacific,
How diplomats express consequences and draw red lines during international crises,
Areas of mutual interest where the U.S. and China can still engage productively,
The importance of specialists in the Foreign Service.
Outro music:
Óró Mo Bháidín - Mary O’Hara
Auld Lang Syne - Rendition by The Irish Rovers, originally written by Robert Burns
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To discuss the Christmas Day MAGA civil war over H1Bs and the future of US immigration policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Divyansh Kaushik, a computer science PhD and vice president of Beacon Global Strategies.
We get into…
Pro-immigrant attitudes among Trump’s allies in Silicon Valley
Creative political maneuvering that could make high-skill immigration reform a reality
Whether Vivek is right about American culture aspiring to normalcy
Other areas where Elon and the tech right might spend their political influence
How nativist backlash could influence Trump’s agenda
Why India has yet to produce an influential, home-grown AI lab
Special thanks to Mani Subramani, Gauri Subramani, and our anonymous contributor who grew up in China for sharing their reflections on immigrant parenting.
Outro song: Kishore Kumar, Rote Hue Aate Hai Sab https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e18Pgofqpnc
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Jake Newby is the author of Concrete Avalanche, a free newsletter about music from China. You might remember Jake from the Chinese shoegaze election playlist, or from the tracklist he presented on ChinaTalk back in June. Now that the year is over, Jake is here to introduce his picks for the overall most interesting songs to come out of China in 2024.
This tracklist includes everything from Afrobeat-influenced Beijing funk endorsed by Gilles Peterson, to an electronic track crafted in a Tibetan monastery featuring Buddhist chanting. You can find links to listen to each track individually on the ChinaTalk substack. Enjoy!
1. Golden Seeds 黄金种子 by Sleeping Dogs
2. Never Broken, Never Healed by Seon Ga 信鴿
3. Aroma Compound by ayrtbh
4. Stage Riot 舞台 by Carsick Cars
5. Hereditary Nightmare 遗 传 噩 梦 by The Swan and Blossoms 天鹅与花朵
6. Kagi 鍵 by Voision Xi
7. 物件 (Object) by Mdprl & Git Bu$y Trio
8. Night Patrol by Fazi 法兹
9. Mantra Of Buddha Akshobhya 不 动 佛 心 咒 by Howie Lee
10. Ghostbomb by Ghostmass 大鬼众
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Chris Miller of Chip War and Lennart Heim of RAND check in on the geopolitics of AI. We explore:
Chinese labs' algorithmic progress (surprising to everyone but regular ChinaTalk listeners!)
The geopolitical implications of scaling on test time compute
What is and isn't working with US export controls
And a whole lot more this was a great episode!
The CSET report I referenced: https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chinas-sti-operations/
Chris and Lennart's ChinaTalk in early 2023 https://www.chinatalk.media/p/ai-compute-101-the-geopolitics-of
Outtro music: japanese citypop producers collaborating Beijinger Cheng Fangyuan in the 80s! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=403GCMhZ89Q&ab_channel=Heatwolves itself a cover of this Japanese track but better than the original https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyjnkuhRfJA&ab_channel=PopBULL
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We’ll be getting into the biggest tv show of 2024, a celebrity road trip “will they or won’t they divorce” show which is just as big of a hot mess as it sounds like, rigged nationalist singing competitions, megacorp boy idol capitalism corrupting something as seemingly innocent as a farming reality show, and xinjiang-set tv hit drama.
Our guest today is Em who writes Active Faults, one of my favorite substacks that explores the China’s entertainment industry and celebrity fandom. It is a consistently dark read but one of my favorite discoveries this year. https://activefaults.substack.com/
Puttro music: one of those foreigners who showed up the Chinese singers in 歌手， China's 'The Voice" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMpnuYBcA_I
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Nathan Lambert of the excellent https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter and the Allen Institute joins the pod for a rundown of the biggest AI stories of this year and next. We also talk about what he's learned training advanced AI models at the Allen Institute.
Outtro Music: Young and Holtful by Young-Holt Unlimited, 1969. https://open.spotify.com/track/5am0dV7aB91Q6sWqIAuurA?autoplay=true
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Commerce released its much-anticipated chip export-control updates yesterday, December 2. But today's guests are unimpressed.
But are we right to have hoped for more? To discuss, I’m joined by Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis and Greg Allen from CSIS.
A disclaimer: We recorded this yesterday the same day the regs were released, and given their complexity our takes are inevitably provisional.
We get into:
What’s in the new controls: high bandwidth memory, FDPR, and the Entity List.
Why key assumptions in Biden’s approach to export controls limited
How China’s stockpiling spree may have already rendered these new rules partially obsolete, and what policymakers can do about that going forward.
The law-enforcement approach vs. the counterintelligence approach, and whether export controls should be a foreign-policy tool or simply a law-enforcement activity.
How the new chip controls are like removing puzzle pieces just one at a time — and why that’s exactly what China wants.
The “America First” rationale for domestic chip production.
Why the Democrats’ regulatory design philosophy has favored massive complexity to the detriment of enforcement — and what the Trump administration might do differently going forward.
Outtro music:
From the Netherlands! Mensen by Josine Van Dalsum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igRkp_03UHk
From Japan! Yadokari - Meiko Kaji https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJG2Wozor94
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