Avsnitt
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Tragedy hit the once-marginalized psephological community last week when FiveThirtyEight closed shop. Henry hosts a celebration of life with two of its top contributors, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, to discuss the former outfit's inconceivable achievement of mainstreaming political data journalism. The trio digs into the explosive history of innovative election modeling and explores the lingering unknowns while looking to the future for a field tasked with telling the human story behind complicated quantifications.
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Henry and The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter reconvene after Donald Trump's address before Congress. They wonder how Tuesday's performance will play with the voters outside Trump's base who won him the election; consider the risks attendant to his coalition in making moves on Ukraine and tariffs; and think through partisan mandate strategy in a country with a teeter-totter electorate. Plus, they look to 2026 and beyond to speculate on who might help the flat-footed opposition regain its balance.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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To have any attachment to conservatism since the Reagan renewal is to have at least a glancing acquaintanceship with the Heritage Foundation. Under its current president, Kevin Roberts, that pivotal institution is shifting gears to settle this century's conservative-populist synthesis. Kevin and Henry sit down to dive into Roberts' new book, Dawn's Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America. Along with making the serious case for the promised Golden Age, the two discuss the spiritual war that's facing the country, institutional control burns, and the debate over America the Idea versus America the Nation.
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Germany's parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday, and for the first time since the fall of the Third Reich, a nationalist party is a major player. To start, Henry breaks down the rules of the game and assesses the polling for the many parties in the mix. Next, he's joined by Katja Hoyer to discuss the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's stunning rise along with a deep dive into the factions within that will vie for control of Deutschland's now-second largest party.
And if you're looking for analysis as the returns come in on Sunday, be sure to check out Henry's live stream which you can watch on X! (You'll find it at @henryolsenEPPC.)
Music for this week:
Open: Beethoven – Symphony No. 9 (Finale ‘Ode to Joy’), via Spat Music
Close: America the Beautiful — Simon Armitage Music, via MotionArray -
Despite the kerfuffle that President Trump is initiating a Constitutional crisis, the confusion and frustration surrounding his executive actions fit within a fairly common modern trend: Congress’s institutional inaction leaves a power vacuum which the president sets out to fill. In anticipation of the Supreme Court weighing in, Henry sits down with the inestimable John Yoo to discuss the larger constitutional questions that Trump’s test cases are likely to settle. Tune in for a refresher on the distinction between the separation of powers and checks and balances; an explanation of the unitary executive theory; and considerations on how justices may come down on the decisions that will be put before them.
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Conventional wisdom has it that the Democratic Party lost in November after moving too far to the left on its social and economic stances. But these are hardly conventional times, so why not let an outsider have a say? Henry sits down with Maurice Mitchell, National Director of the Working Families Party, to discuss the WFP’s aim to win elections by offering a progressive alternative to the corporate-aligned Democratic Party. Maurice takes us through the WFP’s break with Democrats in 1998 and its 26-year history; he points out the attention they’ve achieved nationwide and the obstacles they’ve faced in a rigid two-party system. Further, he disputes the calls for centrism following Kamala Harris’s defeat and illustrates how the Working Families Party platform has a future in a country hungry for change.
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A quarter century after publishing his famous book about the ascendant bohemian bourgeoise ("Bobo") upper class, New York Times columnist David Brooks has found cause to reconsider the new elite. He and Henry sit down to discuss the vanities of that insular group, the incongruence of their public espousals and private behavior, and how some form of nationalist populism was the public's best available means of course correction.
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Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics' Senior Elections Analyst and author of The Lost Majority, returns to share his insights on America's versicolored electorate. He and Henry discuss the country's small-C conservative disposition that Donald Trump won over with his "revolution in common sense". They consider the profound difference between the start of Trump's second term, exemplified by his day one preparedness, along with the challenges he'll face in juggling his coalition's disparate priorities. On the other hand, they consider the great task before the Democratic Party — an uphill battle with a let's-rock-the-boat base whose preferred candidates don't appeal to the center.
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If you wanna win an election, you gotta build a coalition—just don't expect it to last forever. As we enter the second quarter of this American century, Henry sits down with Karl Rove to discuss the coalition he helped forge at the millennium's beginning. But they don't stop there! Karl and Henry find valuable lessons in the Republican Party's working-class appeal during the McKinley era, on to the Compassionate Conservatism of the aughts, and finally to Donald Trump's assertive MAGA movement.
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Beyond the Polls is back! This week, Henry sits down with the Washington Post's Jason Willick to go over Donald Trump's haul ahead of his second inauguration. The duo speculates on everything from the president-elect's comments about desired new territories, defense aspirations, and tariffs, before considering how all of this fits with the MAGA coalition and how his maneuvers will play with the judiciary that Trump helped build in term one.
Plus, Henry surveys the electorate's sentiments on presidents past and present as laid out in the latest Economist/YouGov poll. -
For our last journey beyond the polls of the year, we examine the Democratic Party's options post-2024. Jonathan Cowan, president of the centrist think tank Third Way, joins Henry to explain how the left wing took over the party vessel and how they ran it off the tracks. They consider whether Democrats will get the message in time to compete in 2028 and go over the playbook necessary for those center-left candidates who are serious about winning elections.
Henry's off for the holidays, but stay subscribed—or get started if you haven't already!—and we'll see you back in 2025. -
This week on Beyond the Polls, Henry sits down with Tim Goeglein of Focus on the Family to cover his new book, Stumbling Toward Utopia: How the 1960s Turned Into a National Nightmare and How We Can Revive the American Dream. They dive into the early roots of the midcentury's cultural upheaval and consider why Americans seem ready to turn back the tide.
Plus, Henry eschews Beltway insider opinions in favor of ordinary Americans' take on Trump and Harris post-election, along with Trump's cabinet selections, as shown in recent polling data. -
It's an all-rant episode this week as Henry breaks down the latest polling on Donald Trump's boosted favorability. (They like him. They really like him!) Plus, we go abroad to take a look at the populist movements that are sinking European establishmentarians who were meant to keep this global movement at bay.
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For years, Ruy Texiera has warned Democrats of the consequences of its moves away from the working-class voters who have held up the popular party since the days of FDR. Today, he and Henry work out a few answers to the question Ruy posed in his recent book, Where Have All the Democrats Gone? They go over the insularity that's led the elite leftward, consider the intra-party fights necessary to break up the club, and wonder how long it will take for such punchy liberal patriots to emerge.
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Want a detailed analysis of Tuesday's red wave but don't know whose to take to the bank? Why not give a listen to the guy who boldly predicted the results? That's right, our own Henry Olsen got it about as right as could be! So this week's episode is an all-rant breakdown of who voted which way, why they went there, and what to expect from voters and the parties beyond 2024.
P.S. Henry's off next week, but be sure to stay subscribed to Beyond the Polls (or hop on if you haven't already), because we're taking this podcast to 2025! -
Henry’s guest for the final pre-election episode of the season has covered political campaigns for quite some time. But he’s never seen anything like the election we’re looking at today. Brit Hume and Henry discuss how the game has changed since they started: covering everything from the new media landscape, marked by a turn from the standard of neutrality to polling in the age of models, along with the fiercely divided electorate and these once-unimaginable candidates.
Plus, Henry rants his way through all the swing states to make as plain as possible the complicated rules and regulations, procedures and peculiarities that will affect the Election Day result rollout. And he does a lightning-fast ad roundup of the ultra-close House races in Colorado 8, Pennsylvania 10, Arizona 1, and Michigan 10 to consider whether they might push the needle just over the edge.
Happy Election Day, everyone! -
The Harris Campaign is pulling out all the stops to edge out Donald Trump in what looks set to be the closest election since 2000. Lately, these efforts have concentrated on energizing enthusiasm among black voters. To discuss the alleged inroads made by Republicans with this group and to consider whether Democrats can hold onto their usual 90+ percent hold, Henry is joined by his pal Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize winning columnist of the Washington Post. They also take a couple of pit stops in the past to assess, on the one hand, Donald Trump's unique talents, and on the other, what Joe Biden might do to assist his vice president's bid.
Plus, Henry dives into the early vote returns and lays out what we can and can't know based on the models; and he takes a look at two dueling ads out of Florida that aim to sway voters for and against the state's abortion ballot initiative. -
We may be three weeks from Election Day, but votes are already being cast. To get a handle on what's going on, Henry sits down with the foremost early voting expert, Michael McDonald of the University of Florida. They go into the history of the accommodation and the trends of both the methods' expansion, along with the changes in how Democrats and Republicans are using the available options. They also get into the rule differences among the swing states that will affect how the returns come in on November 5th.
Plus, Henry dives into the Harris campaign's concerns over her polling numbers with Black voters, and he zips through a lightning-round ad breakdown for key races in Pennsylvania, Arizona and New York. -
Don’t count the Badger State out. It’s very much in play, but keeping up with moving parts and pieces can be downright dizzying. Craig Gilbert of Marquette Law School and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel joins Henry to properly orient us to a state with Obama-Trump voters in the West, Anti-Trump Republicans in the suburbs, and one oh-so-narrow Senate race.
Plus, Mr. Olsen finally has some company to spread the news about the Republican Party’s novel voter identification edge. He breaks down what this best-kept non-secret means for strategists, and assesses how the Harris and Trump campaigns are responding.
And, as always, Henry’s got ads! This week he takes a look at the light touch approach taken by John Duarte of CA-13 to win over weary Independents, alongside Susan Wild’s ingenious ploy for young women in PA-7. -
Wall Street Journal's Gerard Baker joins Henry to consider how J.D. Vance's debate performance might have given us a glimpse of post-Trump populism, and they discuss how Trump and Harris might win undecided voters by sticking to their (wildly different) campaigning guns.
Plus, Henry draws our attention to three far-flung disturbances that have the potential to form into great October surprises; and he takes a close look at two competing ads aimed at defining PA senatorial candidate Dave McCormick based on his time in the private sector. - Visa fler
