Avsnitt
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Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the impact of the FOMC meeting and April employment report on the US rates and FX markets. They also delve into this week’s Treasury refunding announcement, Japan FX interventions, an analysis of the best bullish and bearish-USD expressions and the medium-term outlook for USDJPY and EURUSD.
Speakers:
Jay Barry
Meera Chandan
This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 03 May 2024.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil take a deeper dive into swap spreads in the US markets and how that connects to a kind of term premium.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research
This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4684943-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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James Nelligan, Khagendra Gupta and Morten Lund discuss our main economics, Rates, and FX views in Sweden and Norway ahead of the central bank meetings.
This podcast was recorded on 02 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680274-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680274-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4688989-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678480-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4687572-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Speakers
Tracey Allen, Head of Global Commodities Research
Gbolahan S Taiwo, EM, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4687740-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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This week our FX strategists discuss the implications of the dovish BoJ meeting for JPY as well as lingering FX intervention risk. We also look ahead to US event risk for the dollar next week with a full data calendar and the FOMC.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyBenjamin Shatil, Economic and Policy ResearchPatrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4686012-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Speaker:
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Last week, we attended Cesco Week, one of the leading copper events globally, which brings together the most important producers & consumers and industry leaders each year in Santiago, Chile. We encountered nearly universal bullishness on copper prices over the medium-term, though near-term, there was still a sense that the current copper rally may be running ahead of still slack refined market fundamentals which could take some further time to tighten over the coming quarters. Despite the potential for near-term volatility, there was a broader acknowledgement that we are now entering a new upwards trend for copper prices. Tighter refined copper markets over the course of this year and next look somewhat inevitable, stressing low global above ground stocks. Amidst near-term supply tightening already, progress on filling end-of-decade supply gaps looks nearly non-existent from many major producers and time is now beginning to run very short.
This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680427-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4682555-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Speakers:
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Daniel Lamy, Head of European Credit Strategy Research and Nelson Jantzen, from High Yield, Leveraged Loans and Distressed Leverage Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.
This podcast was recorded on 23 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4664711-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4670934-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666443-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the strength of this tax season and what that tells us about the TGA, the debt ceiling, QT, and the lowest comfortable level of reserves.
SpeakersJay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on April 19, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678572-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678829-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan outline our constructive USD view and the implications of the joint statement from Japan/ Korea/ the US this week.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX StrategyArindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyJames Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 19 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4676229 -0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Oil shrugged this week’s escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. To some extent, this could be explained by the fact that some of the geopolitical risk premium was already priced in. Since last October we have viewed market reaction to political events in the region to be excessive for two reasons. First, main players in the Middle East have strong incentives to keep the conflict contained given the economic transformation currently planned and implemented in the Gulf region requires sustained absence of conflict. Second, the closure of Hormuz is a low-risk event as Iran will be shooting itself in the foot both economically and politically by irritating its main customer.
SpeakersNatasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on April 19, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4674589-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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With timing being the key behind our bullish regional Henry Hub story, the reversal of a preliminary junction granted to Energy Transfer a year ago may provide relief for future LNG demand. Meanwhile, the USDA’s April WASDE was neutral-to-bearish relative to average trade expectations, leaving unanswered questions for South American corn and soybean production, after yet another month of local write-downs.
SpeakersShikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on April 12, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4670498-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671902-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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A hot CPI print following the recent strong jobs print has put ‘high for long’ back in focus, challenging the soft landing narrative. We discuss with Phoebe what these ‘bumps in the road’ mean our views on TIPS, breakevens, and duration generally. As for Gold, Greg dissects the reasons for the recent rally and reviews whether the rate cutting cycle is going to be as bullish for Gold as it was historically.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of Inflation StrategyThomas Salopek, Head of Cross Asset StrategyGregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on April 11, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671684-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667440-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671783-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the moves in secured funding rates and Treasury yields in the wake of strong manufacturing and employment data, and preview the risks around March CPI and the April tax date.
Speakers
Jay Barry, co-head US Rates StrategyTeresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on April 5, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655558-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4664658-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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In this episode, Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss some current key themes and topics for Euro area rate markets. They cover the upcoming April ECB meeting, the recent fiscal announcements and noise in France and Italy, views on swap spreads, drivers of Euro volatility and the impact of rising oil prices on inflation markets.
SpeakersFrancis Diamond, UK Rates & European Inflation Strategy Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666360-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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This week, our FX Strategists Patrick Locke, James Nelligan & Ladislav Jankovic discuss USD & G10 FX trends amid a backdrop of strong US data & higher yields against improving global growth signals, and also break down implications for the dollar from higher oil, weaker CAD data and prospects for CHF depreciation.
This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667578-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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At face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia’s decision to cut oil production could push Brent oil price to $100 by September. But there are multiple counter-measures that could act as a suitable rebalancing mechanism. The US can release up to 60 mn bbls of crude from the SPR and demand could buckle. For now, we keep our long-held price forecast unchanged ($90 by May, $85 in 2H24), awaiting further clarity regarding Russia’s actions, but acknowledge that the way to our price projection may be through $100.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4660256-0 . For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Meera Chandan, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss FX implications from DM central bank superweek and outline expectations ahead of the upcoming BoC/ Riksbank meetings.
This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656374-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
- Visa fler
