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Hvilke sikkerhedsgarantier har Ukraine brug for, og hvad vil der kræves af en eventuel fredsstyrke? Hvor meget kan Europa levere? Det har Thomas Lauritzen talt med militær-analytikeren Anders Puck Nielsen om i ugens Europa-podcast.
Vært og tilrettelægger: Thomas Lauritzen, Altingets Europa-analytiker.
Gæst: Anders Puck Nielsen, militær-analytiker og ekspert i Rusland og Ukraine ved Forsvarsakademiet.
Producer: Clara Vestergaard Lausen, podcastassistent.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Europæiske ledere er rystede over at se USA’s præsident trække det transatlantiske tæppe væk under os. Meget afhænger nu af Tyskland, som går til valg på søndag. Kan en ny leder i EU’s rigeste land vise vejen frem?
Vært og tilrettelægger: Thomas Lauritzen, Altingets Europa-analytiker.
Medvært: Rikke Albrechtsen, Altingets EU-redaktør.
Producer: Clara Vestergaard Lausen, podcastassistent.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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In a more-freeform-than usual episode, I consider the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference, why Trump is such a Putin fanboy (more about being a wannabe strongman than because of any kompromat), and what this means for peace in Ukraine. The summary? There is no deal on Ukraine, and we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but there is at least a chance for some kind of a deal. Maybe.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Sabotage under the Baltic, a grudging apology, a possible attack on a Russian cargo ship, firebombing ATMs, energy blackmail in Moldova... what connects them beyond a sense that, having changed his rules of engagement abroad in 2024, Putin may find this coming to bite him in 2025. Either way, it looks like the coming year will be a bumpy one, to say the least.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025?
For those who get lost in the flow, they are:
PERSONALIA· Elvira Nabiullina
· Ramzan Kadyrov
· Alexander Khinshtein
· Alexei Dyumin
· Sergei Naryshkin
· Nikolai Patrushev
· (Not Mikhail Mishustin/Anton Vaino)
INSTITS
· Security Council
· FSB
· State Council
PROCESSES
· ‘Covert federalisation’
· Lateral alliances
· End of party pseudo-politics?
· Rise of SVO generation?
· Labour shortage
· Deviancy
POLICIES
· Shadow War
· Africa/North Africa
· India
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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We tend to focus on the big challenges facing Russia: war, sanctions, the struggle of authoritarianism vs the remnants of civil society. Maybe it is time to look at some of the less often discussed problems that nonetheless characterise the emerging Russian 'polycrisis': demographics, the mephedrone epidemic, and crumbling transport infrastructure: sex, drugs and rocky roads.
The OSW report on demographics I mentioned is here; the Global Initiative report on drugs is here.
My IWM podcast on Syria with Misha Glenny and Eva Konzett is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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What can one learn from Putin's 4½-hour-long end of year press conference? Essentially, his message to his people is that - however they might feel - everything is fine and they should stay the course. Meanwhile, over Ukraine if anything his line may be hardening: he may talk of 'compromise', but is trying to define the terms of any future peace. Anyway, I listened to 4½ hours, and offer you only one hour...
The article by Joshua Huminski I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually something that perversely frees it from a commitment made in 2015, yet less relevant today? What are the likely knock-on effects for Russia's position in the Mediterranean and Africa? The hottest of hot takes.
That Q&A with Sam Heller and Aron Lund is at:https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-civil-war-has-roared-back-how-far-can-the-rebels-go/
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership for Ukraine does mark a change in tack. What is driving this political-diplomatic adaptation?
Christopher Lawrence, The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline, 2023)Mick Ryan, The War for Ukraine. Strategy and adaptation under fire (Naval Institute Press, 2024)Stephanie Baker, Punishing Putin. Inside the global economic war to bring down Russia (Simon & Schuster, 2024)Charles Hecker, Zero Sum. The arc of international business in Russia (Hurst, 2024)
And, in the second half, I draw on four books that speak in different ways to how Russia has managed (and sometimes failed) to adapt to the military and economic struggle, to bring them to this position.
The books are:The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Schrödinger's Defence Minister, at once busy and visible yet strangely inconsequential and intangible, what can one make of Andrei Belousov, his rise and his chances of achieving anything in his current role?
The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions about threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choices, and Russia's has been strikingly continuous for centuries. As I discuss, it reflects the underlying circumstances and challenges of the country, and while not a straightjacket -- Gorbachev and Brezhnev were products of the same culture -- it helps explain Putin's own decisions.
The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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It's impossible to avoid talking about the potential implications of Donald Trump's election, even as its difficult to know for sure what he intends and almost as hard to say anything that hasn't already been said. I have a go, though, after considering Putin's hour-long speech and epic (or exhausting) 3-hour Q&A on the 'polyphonic' world order at Valdai.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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(It seems to be obligatory to use a weak BRICS/bricks pun, so I felt I had to follow...)
The BRICS summit in Kazan (a smart place to hold it) gives all the appearances of being a propaganda win for Putin. However, I think it emphasised that in a new 'multipolar' world, he only has the friends he can afford to rent -- and some day the bill will become due.
In the second half, I question whether Russia is genuinely falling back into the 'wild 90s'. Perhaps the 'stagnant 70s'? Or the 'decaying 80s'? Or -- my favourite -- the 'braindead 10s'. Either way, these historical parallels should be considered no more than thought laboratories.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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At times it does look as if the emigre liberal opposition to Putin is in such a mess that it looks like a soap opera. So what are some of the recent plot twists and why are they so divided -- and, ultimately, is it necessarily such a bad thing?
In the second half, should Russians have collective guilt for Putin and the war? I don't think so, and explain why -- and why it matters.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Released to Patrons yesterday, a bonus mini-pod on the claims that North Korean combat troops are heading to fight in Ukraine and what the media discussion also says about the current discourse.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Ugens Småt Brændbart dykker først ned i bitchfighten mellem dem, der hylder DRs dokumentarprogram om de rige danskeres hang til privatfly og dobbeltmoral og dem, der mener at DR er tabloide og misbruger sin public service status.
Det skandalebefængte og konkursramte brand Lauritz.com er kommet på nye hænder og nu er brand’et relanceret. Den strategi er vi noget uenige om.
Katherine Diez bog I Egen Barm har sat hele landet på den anden ende. Men nu er der dukket en lille teori op på nettet og i Annas indbakke om at forfatteren har ladet sig inspirere af en amerikansk bestseller fra 2018. Den sag kigger vi nærmere på.
Martin Martensen-Larsen
Anne Thygesen
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Putin's at it again, raising nuclear fears to unsettle the West. Or is the new revision to Russian nuclear doctrine more than just a bit of sabre-rattling? I suggest it is, with bearing on potential Ukrainian endgames. But we ought not to become too fearful: as I discuss in the second half, there are good reasons for him not to use his non-strategic nuclear weapons.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.Support the show
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Ministerrokaden kan ikke skjule, at de tre regeringspartier er røget i åben infight: Uenighederne om fremtidens pensionsalder slår gnister, og ugens “mærkelige” pressemøde endte som alt andet end revitalisering af SVM-regeringen. Opløsningstendenserne begynder at træde tydeligt frem. Hør også om de nye ministre - og ikke mindst statsminister Mette Frederiksens kontroversielle magtmanøvre i spillet om København. De to politiske kommentatorer Lars Trier Mogensen og Henrik Qvortrup analyserer ugens vigtigste begivenheder i dansk politik.
BorgenUnplugged produceres som altid i samarbejde med alle, der støtter os på https://borgenunplugged.10er.app og i denne uge også med www.hellofresh.dk: Brug koden HELLOBORGEN og få op til 1.199 kr. i rabat på dine første fem måltidskasser. Tilbuddet gælder også, hvis du tidligere har været kunde hos HelloFresh og har opsagt dit abonnement for mindst 12 måneder siden. -
As promised, a quickfire interim episode covering some of the past week's stories, from drones over Moscow and reactions to the US presidential debate to regional elections and planning for babies...
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.Support the show
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A compilation of current issues, which will nonetheless somehow connect:
The Trump-Biden debate: what does the Kremlin really want?Nepotism: why are the princelings returning to politics?Terrorism in Dagestan: what does it portend?Covert Ops: ought the West be in the assassination business?The Spectator piece I mentioned is here.
Tickets for the 9 July book event in London I mention are available at https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/russias-future-with-mark-galeotti-anna-arutunyan-hatchards-piccadilly-tickets-924326253707?aff=oddtdtcreator
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.Support the show
- Visa fler