Spelade
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What can one learn from Putin's 4½-hour-long end of year press conference? Essentially, his message to his people is that - however they might feel - everything is fine and they should stay the course. Meanwhile, over Ukraine if anything his line may be hardening: he may talk of 'compromise', but is trying to define the terms of any future peace. Anyway, I listened to 4½ hours, and offer you only one hour...
The article by Joshua Huminski I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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We tend to focus on the big challenges facing Russia: war, sanctions, the struggle of authoritarianism vs the remnants of civil society. Maybe it is time to look at some of the less often discussed problems that nonetheless characterise the emerging Russian 'polycrisis': demographics, the mephedrone epidemic, and crumbling transport infrastructure: sex, drugs and rocky roads.
The OSW report on demographics I mentioned is here; the Global Initiative report on drugs is here.
My IWM podcast on Syria with Misha Glenny and Eva Konzett is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually something that perversely frees it from a commitment made in 2015, yet less relevant today? What are the likely knock-on effects for Russia's position in the Mediterranean and Africa? The hottest of hot takes.
That Q&A with Sam Heller and Aron Lund is at:https://tcf.org/content/commentary/syrias-civil-war-has-roared-back-how-far-can-the-rebels-go/
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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I over 100 år har Socialdemokratiet haft overborgmesterposten i København. Nu er det måske snart slut. Socialdemokratiet står til at få blot 12 procent af stemmerne ifølge en meningsmåling, og Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil har selv proklameret, at der skal et mirakel til, for at hun kan vinde kommunalvalget til november.
»Socialdemokratiet er havnet mellem de meget rige københavnere og de meget røde københavnere,« siger Hans Mortensen: »Problemet er, at Socialdemokratiet nok bare har været i færd med at tabe København i mange årtier.«
Martin Krasnik er vært i Avistid med de politiske journalister Arne Hardis og Hans Mortensen. Programmet er produceret og tilrettelagt af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
Mangler De en julegave? Giv et abonnement på Weekendavisen: www.weekendavisen.dk/gave
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President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership for Ukraine does mark a change in tack. What is driving this political-diplomatic adaptation?
Christopher Lawrence, The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline, 2023)Mick Ryan, The War for Ukraine. Strategy and adaptation under fire (Naval Institute Press, 2024)Stephanie Baker, Punishing Putin. Inside the global economic war to bring down Russia (Simon & Schuster, 2024)Charles Hecker, Zero Sum. The arc of international business in Russia (Hurst, 2024)
And, in the second half, I draw on four books that speak in different ways to how Russia has managed (and sometimes failed) to adapt to the military and economic struggle, to bring them to this position.
The books are:The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Regeringen er kommet på en vanskelig diplomatisk opgave. På en og samme tid forsøger den at bakke op om Den Internationale Straffedomstol, ICC, uden klart at sige, at man bakker op om arrestationen af Israels premierminister.
»Statsministeren vil to ting på en gang, som ikke er forenelige. Hun vil anerkende domstolens ret til at handle, og hun vil forhindre, at man griber til en anholdelse af Netanyahu, hvis han skulle være så dum at købe sine kager i København,« vurderer Arne Hardis og suppleres af Hans Mortensen: »Al udenrigspolitik handler om at orientere sig mod det nye USA.«
Martin Krasnik er vært og programmet er produceret og tilrettelagt af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Schrödinger's Defence Minister, at once busy and visible yet strangely inconsequential and intangible, what can one make of Andrei Belousov, his rise and his chances of achieving anything in his current role?
The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions about threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choices, and Russia's has been strikingly continuous for centuries. As I discuss, it reflects the underlying circumstances and challenges of the country, and while not a straightjacket -- Gorbachev and Brezhnev were products of the same culture -- it helps explain Putin's own decisions.
The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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I USA bliver Trump præsident - og amerikanerne viser tegn på træthed med krigen i Ukraine. I Berlin ringer Scholz til Putin - for første gang i to år. Biden giver Ukraine lov til at bruge langtrækkende missiler. Men på G20-topmødet falder støtten til Ukraine og Vesten, og i Moskva arbejder Putin på, at det vestlige sammenhold bag Ukraine kollapser. Og ukrainerne er gået ind i den tredje vinter i krigen mod Rusland - svækket og presset, med mangel på energi, på basale fornødenheder, desillusionerede. Så hvad sker der med et splittet Europas garantier om at stå bag Ukraines forsvar for demokratiet til det sidste?
Gæster: Flemming Splidsboel, Ole Wæver Friis og Arne Petersen.
Vært: Steffen Gram. -
Aftalen om Den grønne trepart har givet Venstre fornyet selvtillid og frigjort partiet fra landbruget, mener Weekendavisens politiske journalist Hans Mortensen:
»Det brede landbrug støtter dem, mens det vrede landbrug bliver hos Inger Støjberg. Det betyder, at Venstre kan gå efter nogle andre vælgergrupper.«
Er det historisk, spørger Martin Krasnik både Hans Mortensen og Arne Hardis i Avistid.
Programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Der foregår en sjælekamp i Enhedslisten for tiden, som trækker tråde helt tilbage til 70ernes fraktionerede venstrefløj. En kamp mellem fløjen, der søger at tiltrække den radikaliserede ungdom på gaderne, og den mere pragmatiske fløj, som søger vælgervolume og politisk indflydelse på Christiansborg.
Men fløjkrigen er ikke ny. Den har været lagt under låg siden Enhedslisten blev etableret.
»Der er nogle opgør, man har forskubbet og tænkt, dem kommer vi aldrig til at skulle tage, men de er blevet påtrængende, de er blevet realpolitiske,« vurderer Arne Hardis i Avistid sammen med Hans Mortensen. Kan det mon resultere i et nyt parti?
Programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
Prøv også et abonnement på weekendavisen.dk/tilbud
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Donald Trump lod sig hylde efter sejren for bare en uge siden - omgivet af familie, rådgivere, milliardærer som Elon Musk og jublende tilhængere. Amerikanerne havde givet ham den største sejr til dato - og tilføjet Kamala Harris og demokraterne et sviende nederlag. Og denne gang er Trump parat til at tage magten. Bare en uge efter tegner billedet sig af hans nye administration. Så hvad vil Trump? Hvor fører han USA hen? Og hvad med hans forhold til omverdenen?
Gæster: Anne Alling, Thomas Falbe og Sara Maria Glanowski.
Vært: Steffen Gram. -
It's impossible to avoid talking about the potential implications of Donald Trump's election, even as its difficult to know for sure what he intends and almost as hard to say anything that hasn't already been said. I have a go, though, after considering Putin's hour-long speech and epic (or exhausting) 3-hour Q&A on the 'polyphonic' world order at Valdai.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Verdens rigeste mand, Elon Musk, er her, der og allevegne i den amerikanske valgkamp. Han donerer enorme millionbeløb til Donald Trump. Han holder rallies og fylder alt på sit eget sociale medie X. Og så er han tilsyneladende udset til at få en nøglerolle i Trumps regering.
Sker det, vil fremtiden blive »AMAZING!«, siger Musk selv. Men hvad er det for en fremtid, han forestiller sig? Og har vi virkelig lyst til at leve i Elon Musks verden?
Det diskuterer Nikolaj Arve og Christian Bennike i dagens udgave af Avistid.
Programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Marie Louise Vesthardt og Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
Prøv også et abonnement på Weekendavisen: https://weekendavisen.dk/tilbud
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Det kan virke mærkeligt, at regeringen indkaldte til pressemøde i går for at tale om Donald Trumps valgsejr, men for Arne Hardis er det meget logisk:
»Der er opstået en situation. Vi er under atomparaplyen, der er en ny mand, der holder den, og vi aner ikke, hvordan han vil svinge med den paraply.«
Og som Hans Mortensen tilføjer: »Regeringen har brug for at fortælle, at det er den amerikanske regering, vi samarbejder med, Trump er USA, og vi må indrette os efter dem, for det er vores vigtigste allierede«
Martin Krasnik er vært og programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
Få et godt tilbud og prøv Weekendavisen: weekendavisen.dk/tilbud
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Vi er tæt forbundne med amerikanerne og længes efter, at USA stadig vil påtage sig lederskabet. Sådan udtrykker Hans Mortensen og Arne Hardis det i Avistid, der i denne uge handler om Danmarks forhold til Amerika.
Kærligheden til USA er forholdsvis ny. Op gennem det 20. århundrede så man både på venstre- og højrefløjen amerikanerne som dumme, kulturløse og vulgære. Først efter Berlinmurens fald overgav vi os helt til forholdet.
Men nu er cirklen sluttet: »Med Trump er vi i en eller anden forstand kommet til vejs ende, og nu elsker vi amerikanerne, men vi bliver genbesøgt af det gamle spøgelse med mistro og tvivl,« siger Arne Hardis.
Martin Krasnik er vært, og programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
Få et godt tilbud og prøv Weekendavisen: weekendavisen.dk/tilbud
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Nu har også USA bekræftet, at Nordkorea har sendt mindst 3.000 soldater til russisk Fjernøsten, hvor de trænes til kamp mod de ukrainske styrker.
I dagens Avistid taler udlandsredaktør Anna Libak med avisens Ukraine- og Ruslands-ekspert Andrey Kazankov om, hvordan det vil påvirke krigens gang.
Avistid er produceret og tilrettelagt af Marie Louise Vesthardt og Birgit Nissen Pedersen. Anna Libak er dagens vært.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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(It seems to be obligatory to use a weak BRICS/bricks pun, so I felt I had to follow...)
The BRICS summit in Kazan (a smart place to hold it) gives all the appearances of being a propaganda win for Putin. However, I think it emphasised that in a new 'multipolar' world, he only has the friends he can afford to rent -- and some day the bill will become due.
In the second half, I question whether Russia is genuinely falling back into the 'wild 90s'. Perhaps the 'stagnant 70s'? Or the 'decaying 80s'? Or -- my favourite -- the 'braindead 10s'. Either way, these historical parallels should be considered no more than thought laboratories.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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Forhandlingerne om den grønne trepart går trægt. Oppositionen finder regeringens ambitioner alt for lave. Ideen var at binde alle parterne til det samme bord, men det er åbenbart ikke så nemt.
»Alle synes, at regeringen har givet landbruget en gave ved at vælge den mindste model, fordi den ikke løser problemet med, at vi skal have liv i fjorde og have igen,« vurderer Hans Mortensen i Avistid.
Men spørgsmålet er, om den skrøbelige aftale kan overleve et politisk slagsmål?
Martin Krasnik er vært og programmet er tilrettelagt og produceret af Birgit Nissen Pedersen.
Få et godt tilbud og prøv Weekendavisen: weekendavisen.dk/tilbud
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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At times it does look as if the emigre liberal opposition to Putin is in such a mess that it looks like a soap opera. So what are some of the recent plot twists and why are they so divided -- and, ultimately, is it necessarily such a bad thing?
In the second half, should Russians have collective guilt for Putin and the war? I don't think so, and explain why -- and why it matters.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Support the show
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