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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga is joined by Zsuzsanna Végh, Program Officer with the German Marshall Fund, to discuss the aftermath of Hungary’s elections, which saw Péter Magyar’s Tisza party decisively defeat Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz after more than 16 years in power. They talk about the factors behind Tisza’s victory and what might come next for Orbán and Fidesz. They discuss Magyar’s foreign policy priorities and how Hungary’s relations with Ukraine, Russia and the EU might change under his leadership. Finally, they assess what Orbán’s defeat might mean for far-right movements in Europe and the U.S., with which Fidesz had fostered close ties, and what lessons anti-autocratic movements can draw from Magyar’s win.
For more, check out our Europe page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga is joined by Crisis Group’s head of EU affairs, Lisa Musiol, to take stock of how the EU and European capitals have responded to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. They discuss how coordinated this response has been, the balancing act of trying to preserve the transatlantic relationship while avoiding being drawn directly into the conflict, and what lessons can be drawn for further dealings with a U.S. administration that continues to flout international law. They also examine the fallout of the war for Europe, including energy shocks and pressure on support for Ukraine, and the structural constraints that make it hard for the EU to shape major crises rather than simply react to them. Finally, they explore what role the EU and European capitals might play in post-ceasefire diplomacy with Iran, whether closer cooperation with Gulf Arab states is likely, and why, despite its limitations, the EU still matters in many crises around the world.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga is joined by Gabriella Gricius, Senior Fellow at the Arctic Institute and Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Konstanz, to speak about Arctic security and how great power competition is playing out in the High North. They examine U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to acquire Greenland, whether there is any logic behind the idea that the U.S. needs to own the island, and if the issue could re-emerge. They discuss NATO’s plans for a greater presence in the High North and the rationale behind its new mission, Arctic Sentry. They explore Russia’s priorities in the Arctic, how its posture is shifting with Finland and Sweden joining the alliance, as well as China’s interests in the region. Finally, they discuss the dilemma European capitals face in responding to unpredictability from both Washington and Moscow in the Arctic and identify where space for cooperation in the region remains.
For more, check out our Hold Your Fire! episode “The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos”, as well as our Europe & Central Asia page.
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Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode from Crisis Group's global podcast, Hold Your Fire!
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, about progress in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, U.S. involvement and shifting regional politics. They discuss U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Yerevan and Baku, why Washington got involved and U.S. efforts to broker agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) – a proposed transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. They talk about whether the corridor could move forward even without a fully ratified peace deal and examine the remaining sticking points. They also assess Türkiye’s expanding role in the region, Iran’s concerns about the corridor, Russia’s waning influence and European policy. They examine why the Trump administration’s peacemaking appears to have been more successful in the South Caucasus than elsewhere.
For more, check out Joshua’s recent Analyst’s Notebook, “Vance Visit Reaffirms U.S. Push to End Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict” and our Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Alissa are joined by Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, to discuss how European capitals are reacting to recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and the Trump administration’s aggressive rhetoric over Greenland, and how EU and NATO member states can navigate an increasingly strained transatlantic relationship. They explore how European governments may rethink security in order to reduce dependence on the U.S. as Washington increasingly disregards international norms and even threatens the territorial integrity of an ally. Finally, they consider how regional states can meaningfully approach multilateralism as the global order continues to shift rapidly.
This episode was made possible through extra-budgetary funding from the OSCE. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the OSCE.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus, to discuss the increasingly difficult situation facing people displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia after Azerbaijan regained control of the territory in a rapid 2023 offensive. They unpack the refugees’ mounting challenges–from insecure housing after cuts to government assistance to discrimination–and their growing frustration with Armenia’s government. They also examine the role refugees from Karabakh might play in Armenia’s 2026 elections and peace efforts with Azerbaijan, their hopes of return, and what the EU can do to help Yerevan respond.
For more, check out our Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict and Europe & Central Asia pages.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Elissa and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Sabine Freizer Gunes, UN Women representative for Ukraine, about how the war in Ukraine has shaped and amplified gender inequalities in Ukraine and how women and women’s organisations are responding. They discuss the mood in Ukraine as it enters its fourth winter of full-scale war and the toll the conflict is taking on women from higher rates of sexual and gender-based violence, mounting mental health pressures and economic insecurity. They explore how women are navigating both the challenges and opportunities the war has created, how the Ukrainian government is addressing these issues, and how women’s organisations are affected by aid cuts. As Crisis Group marks its 30th anniversary, they also discuss how women’s roles in politics and peacemaking in Ukraine and beyond are evolving amid a global pushback against gender equality and women’s rights.
For more, check out our Gender and Conflict and Ukraine pages.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Bob Deen, Head of the Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute, to assess the state of diplomacy aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. They discuss why peace efforts by the U.S. and others have struggled to gain traction, and what diplomacy can realistically achieve in the near term. They also look at Kyiv’s attempts to build broader global support for a peace initiative and which countries are best positioned to play a constructive role. They also consider the roles that international organisations such as the OSCE and UN might play in shaping a settlement in Ukraine and how these institutions could fit into a future European security order.
Note: This episode was recorded before President Trump’s call with President Putin last week, their announcement of a planned summit in Budapest, and Trump’s White House meeting with President Zelenskyy.
This episode was made possible through extra-budgetary funding from the OSCE. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the OSCE.
For more, check out our Ukraine and Europe & Central Asia pages.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Valery Kavaleuski, former Belarusian diplomat and Executive Director of the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency, about Minsk’s evolving foreign policy and how it is constrained by enduring Russian influence. They discuss the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad 2025, which took place just after 19 Russian drones crossed into Poland, heightening tensions between NATO and Moscow. They unpack Belarus’ continued participation in the Vienna Document, its recent engagement with Washington, which seems to have led to prisoner releases in exchange for sanctions relief, and whether the EU and its members should adopt a more pragmatic approach when engaging with Minsk. They also look at the future of Belarus’ domestic politics, the prospects for dialogue between the opposition and the Lukashenka government, and what a post-Lukashenka Belarus might look like.
For more, check out our Belarus and Europe & Central Asia pages.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a non-resident Senior Associate at CSIS, about Russia’s changing role in the Middle East. They discuss how Moscow is responding to the fall of Assad in Syria and the twelve-day war between Israel (and the U.S.) and Iran. They explore how Russia’s relationships with regional capitals are evolving, what Middle Eastern states hope to gain from partnership with Moscow and the prospects for U.S.-Russia cooperation in the region.
For more, check out our Middle East and Europe & Central Asia page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Dr. Pia Fuhrhop, head of the International Security Research Division at SWP, about the upcoming NATO summit, transatlantic relations, and how European NATO allies are working to strengthen their own defence. They discuss expectations for the summit, the potential role of Ukraine, and the alliance’s push to raise defence spending targets to 5% of GDP amid growing U.S. pressure for more burden-sharing. They look at Germany’s evolving role in European security and the new government’s ambition to build “the strongest conventional army in Europe”. Finally, they consider the value of holding regular summits at a time when transatlantic relations are increasingly volatile.
For more, check out our report Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future and our Europe & Central Asia page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Crisis Group’s senior Ukraine analyst, Lucian Kim, about how the war in Ukraine is evolving and what is happening with diplomatic efforts to end it. They discuss recent developments along Ukraine’s front lines, how Kyiv is adapting on the battlefield and the mood among Ukrainians. They assess the recent Istanbul talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations and the prospects for follow-on negotiations. They discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s involvement and the takeaways from his recent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They also explore the prospect of a U.S. withdrawal of support for Ukraine and the possible responses of European leaders to fill the gap.
For more, check out our Ukraine country page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann to unpack how aspiring authoritarian leaders transform democracies into autocratic governments and whether democratic erosion in Western democracies is, in fact, a trend. They discuss how such leaders concentrate power and systematically weaken democratic institutions. They also explore the role of ideology in authoritarian systems and how these regimes differ from totalitarian forms of governance. Finally, they delve into how democratic resilience can be fostered and what can be done to reverse democratic backsliding.
For more, check out our Europe and Central Asia regional page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Crisis Group’s Latin America program director Renata Segura and senior Colombia analyst Elizabeth Dickinson. They unpack the evolving landscape of narcotics trafficking in Latin America and how the violent crime it fuels is affecting communities across the continent. They explore why, more than 50 years after the U.S. declared a “war on drugs”, law enforcement efforts to dismantle criminal networks have failed to deliver lasting results. They also discuss how the EU can support its Latin American partners in pursuing alternative strategies to curb drug-related violence beyond military-led crackdowns, at a time when such crime is also rising in European cities.
For more, check out our recent report “Curbing Violence in Latin America’s Drug Trafficking Hotspots”, our visual explainer “How a New Drug Trafficking Landscape Fuels Violence in Latin America”, and our Latin America regional page.
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Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode from Crisis Group's global podcast, Hold Your Fire!
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, whether the Trump administration can get genuine concessions out of Russia and the prospect of European troops in Ukraine. They assess the role of France in Europe and debates around extending its nuclear umbrella to eastern Europe. They also discuss whether the Trump administration’s unorthodox diplomacy might bear fruit in the Middle East.
For more, check out our report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Berkay Mandıracı, Crisis Group’s senior Türkiye analyst, about Ankara’s evolving role in Syria following the Assad regime’s collapse and about the apparent progress of efforts to resolve the conflict between Türkiye and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). They examine Türkiye’s relations with Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham, the new rulers in Syria, and what Ankara stands to gain from the shifting political landscape in its neighbouring country. They assess the situation in north-eastern Syria, where tensions remain high between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). They also discuss whether the latest attempts to end the decades-long conflict between Türkiye and the PKK have a real chance of success, as well as Ankara’s regional ambitions amid rapidly changing security dynamics in Europe.
For more, check out Berkay’s latest op-ed, co-authored with colleague Dareen Khalifa, “Turkey’s tightrope in post-Assad Syria”, and Crisis Group’s page “Türkiye’s PKK Conflict: A Visual Explainer”, and our Europe & Central Asia and Middle East regional pages.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment specialising in Ukrainian and Russian military affairs. They reflect on the developments along Ukraine’s frontlines in 2024, the challenges Ukraine’s and Russia’s armed forces have faced, including high equipment losses as well as shortages of personnel and ammunition, and how the war might evolve in the year ahead. They discuss the implications of the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russian forces in the Kursk region and look at how the new U.S. administration under President Donald Trump might affect the war. They speculate on the potential consequences for Ukraine’s military capabilities if Washington cuts back on weapons aid to Kyiv and whether Europe can muster the resources to fill the gap. They also explore how Ukraine’s and Russia’s armies might evolve in the coming years.
Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
For more, check out Michael’s podcast, The Russia Contingency, and Crisis Group’s Q&A “Mobilisation, Peacemaking and Deterrence in Ukraine”, and our Ukraine country page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Lucian Kim, Crisis Group’s Senior Ukraine analyst, about his new book “Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine”. They reflect on Lucian’s decades-long career as a journalist covering pivotal political events in Russia and Ukraine, from Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Euromaidan protests to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They explore Moscow’s increasingly strained relations with Kyiv and Western capitals, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s shift from a pragmatic leader to an increasingly authoritarian strongman, and what led to his decision to launch the deadliest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. They also discuss which lessons Western policymakers should draw to better engage with Ukraine and Russia to secure European security in the future.
For more, be sure to check out Lucian’s book “Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine”, our latest Q&A “Mobilisation, Peacemaking and Deterrence in Ukraine”, and our Ukraine country page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Lisa Musiol, head of EU affairs to discuss the challenges facing the new European Commission. They ask what the appointment of more right-leaning commissioners might mean for its policy direction and discuss the priorities of the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and the future of European defence policy. They examine how the EU is preparing for a second Trump administration and the prospect of Washington reducing its defence commitments to Europe. They also discuss the EU’s evolving global role and whether it can manage to adapt to a fast-changing world order.
Note: This podcast episode was recorded prior to the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and thus does not address events in that country and their repercussions.
For more, check out the latest update to our EU-Watch List and our Europe and Central Asia program page.
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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Tbilisi-based journalist Joshua Kucera to discuss Georgia’s contested parliamentary elections and the prospects for the country and its breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They look at what explains the electoral success of the ruling Georgian Dream party, what’s behind allegations of vote rigging and why the opposition has struggled to mobilise its support base in the aftermath of the polls. They explore Tbilisi’s shifting relations with Moscow and Brussels, focusing on why the war in Ukraine and politics in the South Caucasus have driven Georgia away from the project of Western integration. They also examine the recent unrest in Abkhazia, the complicated relations among Georgia, the breakaway regions and Russia, and the EU’s future as a mediator and monitor in the region.
For more, check out Joshua’s New York Times op-ed “This Country Turned Against the West, and It’s Not Coming Back”, Crisis Group’s commentary “Georgia: How to Tread Carefully and Preserve the EU’s Diplomatic Role” and our Georgia country page.
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- Visa fler
