Avsnitt
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A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly?
This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging.
We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead
08:28 Rate Volatility Returns
13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen
18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight
26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed
35:55 The Summer Market Setup
42:39 MicroStrategy's Market Test
46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost
53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt
01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yGHU0SgEjUNE1cDKP280F60FsRrcBqOh/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision.
Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting to unpack what may be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the Federal Reserve.
We discuss Warsh’s hawkish debut, the end of the forward guidance era, sweeping Fed task forces, potential changes to the inflation framework, AI and productivity, and why all of this could point to a meaningful repricing of risk assets. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:22 Warsh Kills Forward Guidance
05:57 Markets Price The Warsh Fed
11:19 The New Fed Task Forces
17:10 Impact On Rate Volatility
19:12 Warsh’s Balance Sheet Fight
23:13 Rethinking Fed Data
27:46 Weighing AI Productivity
31:52 Rethinking Inflation Target
36:17 Warsh’s Hawkish Market Signal
FOLLOW JOSEPH
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/josephwang
› Website – https://fedguy.com/
› YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Saknas det avsnitt?
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In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets.
Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
Follow Blockworks on X: https://x.com/Blockworks
Follow Messari on X: https://x.com/MessariCrypto
Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_
Follow Jason on X: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz -
Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today.
This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning.
We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook
08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap
12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds
17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed
21:48 Mag Loses Leadership
28:54 The AI Capex Risk
30:17 The Best Rates Trade
34:20 Policy Powers The AI War
38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets?
43:52 The AI Access Divide
50:34 The Centralization Trade
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I_E0fiARx9ikBBddWaGJegaAAfa00ODn/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide.
Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid.
We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and oil prices, China’s growing leverage, financial warfare, swap lines, and what it all means for stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and global markets. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:50 Warsh’s First Fed Test
04:54 Rethinking The Fed’s Role
11:35 Can Warsh Control The Committee?
14:07 Why The Dollar Looks Weak
17:19 Warsh’s Impossible Policy Mix
23:30 What's The Policy Plan?
27:31 China’s Strategic Waiting Game
34:16 Financial Warfare Going Global
40:22 Swap Lines And Petrogold
47:11 Risk Assets Face Repricing
FOLLOW LUKE
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/LukeGromen
› FFTT – https://fftt-llc.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
https://blockworks.com/events
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
While investors wait for a recession that never comes, AI spending and fiscal stimulus keep pouring fuel on the expansion.
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital joins to explain how AI spending is reshaping the economy, profits, and traditional market dynamics.
We also discuss productivity gains, consumer resilience, inflation risks, Fed policy, bond market reactions, energy markets, and David’s favorite international trade. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:59 AI Buildout Is Driving Macro
06:01 Profit Margins And Productivity
09:58 Supply Chains Shift To Resilience
13:13 Consumer Resilience Mystery
19:19 What Funds The Consumer?
22:44 Why The Recession Never Comes
25:55 The Fed Rethinking Hikes
32:19 Warsh Inheriting Inflation Fight
38:07 Bonds, Equities And Rates
41:17 Can Stocks Ignore Rates?
44:21 The Korea Trade
FOLLOW DAVID
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/EconstratPB
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
This week, we're back to discuss whether the economy is entering an AI driven productivity boom and what that means for markets. We deep dive into whether the Fed should actually be hiking rates, growing signs of consumer weakness, how we're thinking about positioning in this environment and more. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:22) Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates?
(07:53) The AI Productivity Boom
(14:28) An Update On Market Structure
(18:28) The Consumer Is Struggling
(36:21) How To Trade This Market
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FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
--
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
This week, we're back to discuss the current AI driven market rally and wether or not it can continue. We then deep dive into the positive tailwinds for energy companies, the trillion dollar wave of IPO's in 2026, the bond market sell off, why active is outperforming and more. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:42) The Bond Market Sell Off
(14:32) Can This Market Bubble Continue?
(29:06) Why Active is Outperforming Passive
(38:44) The Wave of Trillion Dollar IPOs
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FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
--
RESOURCES
› https://docsend.com/view/62t43sp222nsvqzg
› Dell Children's Donation – https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061
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Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control.
This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop.
We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Dell Children’s Fundraiser
05:55 Monster Earnings And AI
07:59 Is This A Bubble?
12:52 The AI Economy Flywheel
14:56 Frothy AI Positioning
20:10 Consumer Stress Hits Retail
27:17 Main Street Is Breaking
31:54 Yields Pressuring Markets
34:41 Who Removes The Punch Bowl?
39:24 Will The Fed Accommodate AI?
42:26 Trump’s Policy Reversal
47:02 Populism Against AI Politics
51:55 $10k Donation Goal
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dYIYTeh-rRK9vHQG_Qa_6GtJuQbbcbc5/view?usp=sharing
› Dell Children's Donation – https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read.
Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path.
We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:54 The Real Inflation Story
06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold
08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken
12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks
14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion
19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate
22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk
26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data
29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming?
36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed
45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy
48:14 Final Thoughts
FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward. Guidance– https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people.
This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage.
We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than markets expect. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:38 Oil Inventories Near Stress Levels
07:38 Trading Oil Volatility
13:45 Oil, China, And AI
17:13 Energy Exports Versus AI Imports
20:22 Can Statecraft Survive Inflation?
24:35 Earnings Keep Ripping
26:25 Run-It-Hot Inflation Regime
30:07 Gold Returns To The Spotlight
33:01 Run It Hot, Leverage, & Centralization
40:47 AI Hits The Labor Market
44:53 Housing And Replacement Costs
47:50 Inflation Hits Everyday Life
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-r4fcVGPGE15TIZN9JOGLQLu5ATcGPYl/view?usp=sharing
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint.
Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again.
We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong?
07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy
11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t Broken Growth
19:02 Why Inflation Won’t Die
21:52 What Warsh Changes At The Fed
29:54 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
30:38 Why The Fed Is Always Late
36:45 The Fed’s Neutral Rate Mistake
43:05 The Melt-Up Trade Setup
48:57 Where To Find Danny
FOLLOW DANNY DAYAN
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/DannyDayan5
› Substack – https://dannydayan.substack.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› FIDELITY CRYPTO
This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto
Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.
Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades.
This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets.
We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, oil shocks, Japan’s growing instability, and why traditional macro playbooks may no longer apply. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
03:08 Fed Dissents And Warsh
08:45 No Cuts Without Crisis
11:04 End Of The Powell Era
14:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
15:01 Global Yields Break Higher
17:23 Inflationary Growth Regime
20:11 Oil Shock Hits Markets
23:25 Export Ban Risk
28:26 Late Cycle Boom
36:34 Japan’s Breaking Point
48:24 Carry Trade Lose Lose
53:08 The Yield Smile
57:05 Inflation Wave Baked In
01:00:25 Hard Assets Win
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pKJPVYyMItlwJcDPJiD2ST19OzeojYPB/view?usp=sharing
SPONSORS
› FIDELITY CRYPTO
This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto
Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.
Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain.
Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural.
We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
03:21 AI’s Macro Impact
06:48 Historical Tech Bubbles
10:25 AI Capex Drives Growth
14:13 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
15:23 How Big Can The Bubble Get?
20:14 Agentic AI Compute Demand
24:10 AI Is Too Cheap
28:15 Productivity Mirage
33:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
34:24 Fed Policy And AI
41:02 Can AI Fix Debt?
47:34 Physical World Bottlenecks
49:47 The Future Of Economics
FOLLOW STEVE HOU
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› FIDELITY CRYPTO
This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto
Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.
Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long.
This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy.
We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tension between asset inflation and societal change. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
04:49 Kevin Warsh Hearing
13:11 Oil Shock Meets Strong Data
16:51 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
17:15 AI Capex Boom
24:02 Data Centers Remake Economy
33:25 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
34:12 Church Beats OnlyFans
47:04 Dollar Dominance Surges
51:47 Dollar Wrecking Ball
57:58 ESG Trade Dies
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vCQT4biQJI-d10B0-OuD7MxJlq-kW9tl/view?usp=sharing
SPONSORS
› FIDELITY CRYPTO
This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto
Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.
Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk.
We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy.
We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:31 Global Liquidity Turning Lower
06:24 Liquidity Cycle vs Economy
11:29 Recession Fears vs Data
17:28 Treasury Stimulus and Buybacks
23:40 Why Bond Volatility Matters
31:56 Warsh and the Next Regime
39:29 What Interest Rates Really Mean
47:13 Positioning for Turbulence
58:08 Where to Follow Michael
FOLLOW MICHAEL
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/crossbordercap
› Substack – https://capitalwars.substack.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality.
This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move.
We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integrity in an environment driven by liquidity and narrative rather than fundamentals. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
03:20 Historic Rally, Broken Market
06:09 Dollar Weakness Drives Everything
08:39 Volatility, Retail, And Trump
12:11 What Actually Moves Markets
16:52 Allbirds And AI Mania
21:04 Inflation Is Turning Higher
26:32 Midterms And More Stimulus
30:07 Housing Versus Asset Prices
34:00 Negative Real Yields World
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wFcQCeXRDIJX9c7g0Vn1H2IcBHNXdbbN/view?usp=sharing
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
AI is reshaping how decisions get made in markets, but does faster insight actually create better outcomes, or just new risks?
We speak with Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor, on how AI is being deployed inside hedge funds and why this moment may be more transformative than the ChatGPT hype cycle suggests.
We explore AI-driven idea generation, solving small sample size problems, execution gaps, labor disruption, and whether a world of universal AI tools compresses alpha or expands it. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:01 From Druckenmiller to Macro
05:28 Why the Name Reflexivity
07:58 Why AI Unlocks Finance
11:40 Solving Small-Sample Macro
17:19 Known and Unknown Unknowns
23:15 When Data Beats Chatbots
28:27 Does AI Kill Alpha?
34:02 Best Strategies for AI
39:13 Jobs, Productivity, and Policy
45:10 Compute Needs Real Resources
FOLLOW GUEST
› Reflexivity X – https://x.com/ReflexivityAi
› Reflexivity Website – https://reflexivity.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
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› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down.
This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows.
We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, not direction, is the real trade. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check
07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce
11:25 Can VIX Stay Low?
14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not?
19:09 AI Compute Still Leads
28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)
30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking?
34:05 China The New Bond Haven?
38:13 Best Trades in This Regime
44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation
49:50 Buy Non-US Again?
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› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/18AkSBzt_7Y_B8HX6BdbUyJ-kr7Q6Sqsq/view?usp=sharing
SPONSORS
› ARKHAM
Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. -
A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are, raising a deeper question about whether we're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era.
Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro joins us to break down the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy.
We unpack shipping flows, supply chain fractures, energy chokepoints, multipolarity, and why markets may be underestimating cascading global disruptions. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:42 Iran War Framework
07:23 What Actually Matters
11:46 Counting Ships, Not Headlines
15:59 Beyond Hormuz
20:20 Hidden Supply Chain Risks
25:20 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)
27:11 How Long Until Damage?
32:01 Negotiations or Theater?
35:55 Why Markets Still Shrug
40:18 China’s Quiet Advantage
47:56 The Bull Case Remains
FOLLOW GUEST
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/JacobShap
› Website – https://jacobshapiro.com/
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
›. Felix– https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› ARKHAM
Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information.
Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance. isa recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. - Visa fler
