Avsnitt
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Micron beat earnings by $6 billion and hit record highs. Memory chip stocks — MU, SK Hynix, SanDisk, Lam Research — are all running. The catch? It's coming out of the Mag-7's margins. Hyperscalers are paying through the nose for HBM RAM and it shows in their charts. This is the clearest divergence in the AI trade right now.
We also cover SpaceX raising $85.5B in equity plus a $25B corporate bond and reportedly building its own gas pipeline for data centers. Sam Altman has pushed the OpenAI API IPO to next year. CATL dropped a sodium energy storage system — bad timing for lithium stocks. On the ASX: WiseTech hitting new lows, Telix eyeing FDA approval for EchoIQ by September. Plus commodities swinging wildly, Apple hiking prices across the board, and Fear and Greed sitting at Extreme Fear while Micron breaks records.
Episode 125 of Bulls vs Bears from MPC Markets.
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Bulls vs Bears EP124: The Next Mega IPOs — SpaceX, OpenAI vs Anthropic & What Actually Matters
SpaceX just listed. OpenAI is burning $14B this year. Anthropic just hit a $965B post-money valuation. So which one is actually investable — and which ones are traps?
In this week’s episode, Mark Gardner, Kai and JT cut through the noise on the biggest IPO and AI stories moving markets right now.
We break down:
The full SpaceX share lock-up release schedule and the five dates that could make or break the stock (QQQ inclusion, Starship Flight 13, Q2/Q3 earnings unlocks, and Musk’s 366-day lockup)Why Anthropic is eating OpenAI’s lunch in enterprise (40% LLM market share vs OpenAI’s 27%, 80% of revenue from business customers, and 15.7x valuation growth in 14 months)OpenAI’s staggering scale (900M weekly active users, 2.5B prompts/day) versus its $14B losses and cash-flow-positive target of 2029Technical setups across ASX200, Nikkei (fresh record highs), Nasdaq and global indicesCommodity moves in gold, silver, crude and the surprising HPA (High Purity Alumina) trade that’s flying under the radarWhat the new Fed chair, US-Iran deal and memory chip shortage actually mean for positioningBlunt practitioner takes. No guru dogma. Just what the data and flow are really saying.
Listen now & subscribe: https://mpcinvest.co/podcasts
Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro, track record & weekly market colour05:30 – SpaceX IPO deep dive + cumulative unlock timeline18:00 – Five dates that could make or break SpaceX25:00 – OpenAI vs Anthropic: The real AI arms race38:00 – Why Anthropic is winning enterprise (and what it means for valuations)45:00 – Technicals, global markets & commodity wrap (gold, silver, crude, uranium, HPA)52:00 – Next week’s data & closing thoughts#SpaceXIPO #OpenAI #Anthropic #AIStocks #MegaIPO #InvestmentPodcast #BullsVsBears #MPC Markets
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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🚀 SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic: Are the 3 MEGA IPOs Signalling a Market Bubble? | Bulls vs Bears
In this week's Bulls vs Bears, Mark Gardner and the team dive deep into the biggest financial story of 2026 — the wave of mega IPOs that could reshape global markets. With SpaceX reportedly listing at $1.77 trillion, alongside OpenAI and Anthropic, we're witnessing what could be the three largest IPOs in history. Is this the peak of market euphoria or the start of a new era in space, AI, and technology investing?
We break down:
The explosive valuations and retail frenzy around SpaceX IPO — Elon Musk's latest rocket rideWhat these listings mean for the broader market, tech stocks, semiconductors (NVIDIA, Broadcom, Apple), and the S&P 500Fresh economic data: Strong payrolls, sticky CPI & PPI inflation, and what to expect from the upcoming Fed meetingGeopolitical drama with Trump, Iran, and oil market impactsCrypto update: Bitcoin weakness, Hyperliquid strength, and MicroStrategy's strategy shiftWhy long-term investors should stay grounded amid the hypePerfect for Australian investors aged 55+ looking for clear, no-nonsense analysis on wealth preservation, structured income solutions, and navigating record-high markets. Whether you're protecting your retirement portfolio or seeking high-growth opportunities, this episode delivers practical insights you can act on.
Timestamps & Chapters available in the full video.
If you're serious about smarter investing in volatile times, subscribe to Bulls vs Bears for weekly market updates, strategy sessions, and expert commentary you won't get from the mainstream media.
👉 Explore MPC Markets structured investment solutions at mosaic.mpcmarkets.com.au
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Bulls vs Bears Ep 122 | 10-Week Win Streak Starts to Wobble — Dow Rallies, NASDAQ Dips & Software Stocks Update
The S&P 500's historic 10-week winning streak is under pressure. In this episode of Bulls vs Bears from MPC Markets, Mark Gardner, JT, and Kai break down a week where old-school indices fought back — the Dow and Russell 2000 both surged ~1.5% while the NASDAQ slipped 0.5%.
What we cover in this episode:
00:00 — The 10-week streak wobbles: Dow & Russell rally, tech pulls backMicron joins the trillion-dollar club after an extraordinary run from ~$419 to $1,080. Samsung memory workers threaten strike action over pay disparity. We discuss what the memory chip shortage means for investors.
Megaport (ASX: MP1) delivered a 3x return off its lows, hitting $21 after languishing at $7. The company's pivot to GPUs-as-a-service raises questions about enterprise AI hosting and whether companies should run their own language models.
Software Survivors update — our picks from the original webinar are tracked with full performance data. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto up ~90% since recommendation. We revisit which SaaS names face genuine AI disruption risk vs those with durable moats (Xero, ServiceNow, Snowflake, Atlassian).
Jonathan explains the stock repair options strategy — a way to reduce your average entry price without deploying additional capital. We discuss why MPC is considering an "Options for Dummies" education series.
Coal prices remain resilient near $160 while crude oil has been volatile. Strategic petroleum reserves are reportedly at critical levels. Bitcoin has broken to new lows for the year after Michael Saylor flagged potential BTC sales to fund dividends.
All three hosts pick bearish for next week — a consensus that has historically been a contrarian signal. Key risks: US employment data (NFP), CPI, and Oracle/Adobe earnings.
Register for the Software Survivors Sequel webinar (link in comments).
This is general information only and not personal financial advice. MPC Markets is an Australian financial services firm — AFSL applies.
#ASXStocks #BullsVsBears #MPCMarkets #SoftwareStocks #Micron #Megaport #OptionsTrading
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🎙️ Bulls vs Bears Podcast EP121: Fresh Record Highs for Stocks on AI Frenzywith Jonathan Tacadena & Mark Gardner from MPC Markets
In this episode of Bulls vs Bears, Jonathan Tacadena (JT) and Mark Gardner (MG) break down the explosive market action as global stocks hit fresh record highs, fuelled by the unrelenting AI frenzy.
From Nvidia and the Magnificent 7 dominating the US market heatmap to strong moves in Apple, Broadcom, and other tech giants — the bulls are charging. We also dissect the ASX heatmap, where miners and select stocks are holding their own amid the global rally.
What we cover in EP121:
US & Australian market heatmaps – who’s winning and who’s lagging in the AI-driven rallyInflation update: US PCE jumps to 3.8% headline / 3.3% core in April — what does it mean for the Fed?Global indices snapshot – ASX200, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq & Russell 2000 performance (daily & 5-day)Commodities check: Gold, Silver, Crude oil plunge, Iron ore, Bitcoin, and moreExplosive growth in Australian ETFs – record FUM and cumulative YTD net flows hitting $20.7bUS equity flows – what the big money is doing behind the scenesVolatility & market sentiment – Fear & Greed Index at 60 (Greed) + scorecard updateGlobal economic calendar – key events & earnings for 1–6 June 2026 (Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP, tech earnings & more)Plus the usual no-holds-barred debate between the Bulls and Bears — who came out on top this week?
📺 Watch now and decide: Are we in a sustainable AI supercycle or is this the top of the frenzy?
🎧 Listen on your favourite platform:→ Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify→ Follow @mpcmarkets
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SpaceX is heading to the Nasdaq — and it could make Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. In Episode 120 of Bulls vs Bears, the MPC Markets team unpacks the SpaceX IPO: valuation, timeline, and a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion (that's 25% of global GDP).
We also dig into NVIDIA's record earnings and why explosive growth might have a ceiling, Anthropic hitting $10 billion in monthly revenue ahead of schedule, the Cerebras "wafer-scale" chip that's redefining AI inference, Elon's plan to build data centers on the moon using Optimus robots, bond yields flashing red at 5.9% on the 30-year while equity markets look the other way, private credit defaults at a record high, and the collapse of Australian property investor demand following negative gearing changes.
Plus — next week we're joined by a guest breaking down how you can get pre-IPO SpaceX exposure right now through blockchain prediction markets.
New episodes every week. Subscribe so you never miss a market-moving conversation.
Powered by MPC Markets | Discover Mosaic at mpcmarkets.com.au — portfolio and trade ideas in one place.
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Bulls vs Bears: GPUs, CPUs & TPUs Rocket Higher on IOUs | AI Chip Financing Exposed + ASX Budget Reaction
In this week's episode of Bulls vs Bears, Mark Gardner and Kai Chen (JT is on tin-foil leave) dive deep into the explosive semiconductor rally. Nvidia, Micron, AMD, and the entire SOX index are surging — but how much is real demand vs circular vendor financing and IOU accounting?
We break down:
The complex web of AI chip financing, vendor deals, and backlog accounting between Nvidia, hyperscalers, and startupsCPU vs GPU vs TPU explained simply (perfect for beginners)Cerebras IPO — 30x oversubscribed and up 68% on day oneSoftware Survivors strategy up 243% since early MarchWhy Tesla is now trading like a chip stockMicron's insane run and why we trimmedASX Market Update:
Banks hammered post-Budget, resources surging (52% reversal since we called the rotation in Sept 2024)Gold/Silver moves, copper strength, and BHP's relative underperformanceFull Australian Federal Budget breakdown: Capital gains tax changes, negative gearing, trust restructures — what it means for investors and propertyPlus: Bulls vs Bears scoreboard, Kai Chen turning bearish, and why the market feels frothy yet unstoppable.
Timestamps:00:00 Intro & Semiconductor Madness05:30 Circular AI Financing Explained12:45 CPU vs GPU vs TPU Breakdown22:00 ASX Rotation & Budget Impact35:00 Bulls vs Bears Calls
A high-energy (slightly exhausted) look at the AI boom, market rotations, and what’s next for investors.
Keywords: Nvidia stock, AI chips, semiconductor rally, SOX index, Cerebras IPO, Australian Budget 2026, capital gains tax, negative gearing, ASX resources, Tesla stock, Micron, GPU explained, vendor financing
Feeling lost in these markets? Check out Mosaic by MPC Markets — clear portfolio guidance and trade ideas in one place.
Subscribe for weekly Bulls vs Bears, market recaps, and investing strategies from Australia’s sharpest minds.
#Nvidia #AIStocks #ASX #Semiconductors #Investing
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Mark, Kai and JT from MPC Markets are back for Episode 118 of Bulls vs Bears: “Peace, Love and Semiconductors.”
This week, the team breaks down record highs across global equity markets, the ASX lagging after the RBA, oil’s sharp moves, sticky inflation, rising bond yields, and the relentless semiconductor and AI trade. They also dig into Nvidia, data centres, market concentration, thematic ETFs, commodities, and why structured index exposure may be a smarter core strategy than chasing the next hype stock.
Markets are hot, risk is rising, and the boys have plenty to say.
Subscribe for weekly market commentary from MPC Markets. -
Mark's living his best life on a boat in Cairns, so Kai and JT are joined this week by crypto-turned-TradFi convert Finn Jadel. The verdict? If you're not building data centres, you're falling behind — and the market is making that very clear.
This week the team breaks down Google's blockbuster earnings (spoiler: it's all about the infrastructure), digs into Meta's AI talent war and its ongoing $80B Metaverse hangover, and debates whether the US economy would even be growing at all without the data centre CapEx boom. They also cover the Strait of Hormuz signal hiding in the oil futures curve, what the RBA is likely to do next Tuesday, and why the NASDAQ, S&P and Dow hitting record highs at the same time might not be as bullish as it looks.
Plus — Finn walks through MPC Markets' "Buy the Dip" structured product, Kai reveals he's three points clear on the scoreboard, and JT confirms he is going full bear purely out of spite.
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In this extra-spiky, conspiracy-laden edition of Bulls vs. Bears, the hosts don their tinfoil hats (and look suspiciously like Hershey’s Kisses) to explore whether Trump is a strategic mastermind or simply unhinged. They open with the usual market recap—oil grinding toward $96, refinery fires popping up worldwide, and brutal sell-offs in high-quality Aussie names—before plunging headfirst into three wildly compelling theories tying peak oil, Jared Kushner’s family ties, and a Bitcoin debt-destruction gambit to current events in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Takeaways:
Market snapshot: Oil prices climbing, Strait of Hormuz traffic near zero, mysterious refinery fires in non-conflict nations (US, India, Australia, Pakistan, Mexico), plus sharp moves in Cochlear (-45%), CSL, and tech earnings.
JT’s Peak Oil Conspiracy: US military and DoD see shale peaking; theory that America is deliberately prolonging the Strait closure to starve China and the rest of the world of affordable energy while securing its own low-cost supply advantage.
Kai’s Kushner-Netanyahu Theory: Decades-long family friendship between the Kushners and Benjamin Netanyahu, Abraham Accords architect Jared Kushner, and the $2B Saudi sovereign fund investment into his private-equity firm Affinity Partners.
Trump Bitcoin Gambit: Crypto-friendly Trump family allegedly accumulating seized Bitcoin to nuke the USD, inflate BTC to millions per coin, then use profits to pay down trillions in US debt.
Bullish/Bearish calls & lunar-cycle banter: Hosts reveal their weekly market bets live; JT bearish on energy geopolitics, others bullish on market resilience and upcoming Mag-7 earnings.
“Buy the Dip” strategy: Statistically compelling midterm-election-cycle trade—sell overvalued index ETFs now and deploy capital-efficient dip-buying for the historically strong post-May rebound.
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a market that continues to hit record highs despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, high energy prices, and rising cost-of-living pressures, with skepticism toward repeated claims of an imminent peace deal. They note the divergence between a euphoric equity market (particularly the Mag Seven) and more cautious signals from bonds and energy markets, while highlighting strong performance in lithium and uranium amid supply concerns. The episode covers Australian bank earnings driven by trading revenues, potential buying opportunities in Viva Energy after a refinery fire, Netflix’s weak outlook, and speculative AI-themed stock surges reminiscent of dot-com era hype. Valuation metrics show the market more overvalued than in November, with historical patterns suggesting a likely 10%+ pullback in the midterm election year. The hosts maintain a “high conviction do nothing” stance for now but promote their “Buy the Dip” strategy targeting the typical mid-year weakness, while voting mixed on next week’s market direction amid light data and ongoing earnings.
6 One-Sentence Bullet Points:
The equity market remains at record highs driven by the Mag Seven despite persistent Middle East conflicts, high oil/gas prices, and consumer cost pressures equivalent to a full percentage point rate hike.
Australian banks reported solid earnings boosted by trading volumes, while Netflix was hit hard after beating estimates due to a poor content outlook and chairman departure.
Viva Energy is viewed as a buying opportunity after its refinery fire, given Australia’s reduced refining capacity makes it almost “essential infrastructure.”
A former wool sneaker company (Allbirds) rebranded to Newbird AI and surged 900%+ on a pivot to GPU-as-a-service, highlighting ongoing speculative froth in AI stocks.
Key valuation indicators including the Shiller CAPE and Buffett Indicator show US equities more overvalued now than in November, with historical data pointing to a high probability of a 10%+ correction in midterm election years.
The hosts are promoting a “Buy the Dip” strategy timed for the typical May–October weakness in midterm years, while leaning slightly bullish or neutral for next week due to positive technicals and earnings season.
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In this week's Bulls vs Bears episode, the hosts discuss the chaotic Middle East conflict, Trump's rapid "fake ceasefire" announcement via Pakistan, and its immediate market impact, while expressing skepticism over its longevity given the region's history of broken agreements. They analyze the sharp equity rebound despite ongoing oil supply risks, debate AI safety concerns surrounding Anthropic's delayed model release and potential regulation, review technical chart similarities to past bear market rallies, and share their bearish outlook for the week ahead amid geopolitical uncertainty.
6 Key Takeaways:
Trump orchestrated a quick but fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that boosted markets short-term, though hosts doubt its sustainability with a 100% historical failure rate for such agreements.
Equity markets rebounded sharply toward record highs despite minimal actual changes in oil flows or conflict resolution.
Bitcoin may gain legitimacy or see supply dynamics shift if used for sanctioned payments like Strait of Hormuz tolls.
Anthropic's decision to delay its powerful new AI model due to safety risks could slow the SaaS sector and invite regulatory scrutiny from the Fed and Treasury.
Technical charts show concerning similarities to past post-shock rallies that failed, making hosts wary of buying at current elevated levels.
All three hosts remain bearish heading into next week, citing risks of renewed conflict, especially involving Israel and potential Iranian efforts to humiliate Trump.
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Trump's late-week announcement that US forces would hit Iran "extremely hard" for the next two to three weeks — rather than exit — sent markets sharply lower, with crude oil spiking toward $106 and the NASDAQ futures falling nearly 2% by Thursday afternoon. Mark, JT, and Kai work through a volatile week where risk-on/risk-off sentiment flipped multiple times on Trump headlines, review the Bulls vs Bears scoreboard, and assess what Australia's diesel supply constraints could mean if the conflict extends beyond expectations.
Key Points
Trump reversed market expectations by pledging to intensify strikes on Iran rather than withdraw, with crude oil surging past $105 and pushing toward $106 during the recording.
All weekly equity gains — across US, European, and Australian markets — were effectively wiped out within hours of the announcement, illustrating how eight-hour windows are now defining market direction.
End-of-quarter window dressing fuelled a misleading Tuesday night NASDAQ rally of ~4%, partly driven by Western media cutting the Iranian president's peace comments short of their full conditional context.
US payrolls data is scheduled for release on Good Friday when markets are closed, creating an information gap that investors should account for before the long Easter weekend.
Australia's diesel supply situation is a growing concern, with the team noting it would take approximately 31 days to recover accumulated deficits if Hormuz disruption continues — and flagging the possibility of rationing measures within weeks.
MPC Markets' Prism Portfolio Guardian tool has received strong client feedback after six to eight reviews completed this week, with the team also highlighting the Mosaic platform's Iran War dashboard as a daily pre-market resource.
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In episode 112 of Bulls vs. Bears, hosts Jonathan Takadena and the team deliver a sharp, tongue-in-cheek update amid escalating global tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, volatile markets, and a chaotic news cycle dominated by unverified Trump statements. They dissect sharp moves in oil, equities, bonds, and commodities, highlight Australia's worsening fuel crisis (exacerbated by a cyclone knocking out LNG supply), discuss sector rotations including a lithium/EV rebound, Meta/Google legal setbacks, and AI/memory chip impacts, while sharing their current bullish/bearish market views and introducing Mosaic’s new automated portfolio review tool.
Key Takeaways
Trump’s repeated claims of progress on Iran deals have an extremely low truth rate (~20%), with multiple statements on tankers, negotiations, and strikes proven false or exaggerated by satellite data and Iranian responses.
Oil prices have surged dramatically while bond yields spiked viciously; equities have held up surprisingly well so far but risk catching up to energy and food price pressures.
Australia is facing one of the world’s worst fuel crises, with reports of 500+ service stations out of diesel, soaring prices near $3+, and 30% of LNG supply disrupted by a cyclone.
Lithium and EV-related stocks bounced strongly as petrol/diesel shortages drive demand for electric vehicles, making Tesla and BYD owners appear prescient while traditional fuel users feel the pinch.
Meta and Google shares were hit after a landmark case where a plaintiff successfully sued over social media’s addictive design contributing to mental health issues, raising risks for their core business model.
The hosts remain positioned for higher oil and gold (short fiat), note Bitcoin holding steady on real demand but needing “degen” hype to rally further, and see potential buying opportunities in equities if they test key support levels around NASDAQ 6000.
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In this episode of Bulls vs Bears Jonathan, Mark and Kai discuss the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict dominating markets, with oil prices surging amid attacks on key energy sites like South Pars, the Pentagon's massive $200 billion funding request signaling a prolonged engagement, and Trump's unpredictable diplomacy including threats to flatten adversaries and awkward diplomatic moments. They analyze bearish technical signals in equities (S&P breaking below its 200-day moving average), the impact of quadruple witching options expiry potentially unleashing downside volatility, private credit liquidity strains and withdrawal caps at major firms like Blackstone, gold's underperformance despite geopolitics due to higher-for-longer rates and liquidation pressures, and sector rotations favoring energy while pressuring growth assets. The team shares a custom Mosaic analysis estimating conflict duration (base case through late June) and asset implications, while remaining predominantly bearish on equities short-term amid macro uncertainty and limited catalysts for reversal.
Key Summary Points:
• The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran has driven sharp rises in oil and gas prices, with attacks targeting critical energy infrastructure like Iran's South Pars field and retaliation against Gulf hubs.
• Technical indicators for the S&P 500 turned solidly negative, including a close below the 200-day moving average for the first time since mid-2025, signaling broader market weakness.
• Quadruple witching options expiry is expected to remove protective put hedging, potentially allowing greater volatility and a downside move in equities next week.
• Private credit faces isolated but notable stress, with record withdrawal requests leading firms like Blackstone and Blue Owl to cap redemptions amid liquidity concerns.
• Gold has underperformed typical geopolitical safe-haven rallies due to expectations of persistent high interest rates from oil-driven inflation and recent heavy two-year gains prompting profit-taking.
• The team estimates the conflict's most probable end date around late June 2026 based on multiple factors including asymmetric warfare dynamics and political pressures, with energy sectors benefiting while broader risk assets remain vulnerable.
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One of the most turbulent weeks in global markets in years. The escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world's oil and LNG flows — sending Brent crude above $100 for the first time since August 2022, with oil up approximately 50% in just six sessions. The IEA has called it the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
This week we break down:
The Hormuz Crisis — what happened day by day and what comes nextStagflation fears — a shock US jobs report shed 92,000 jobs just as oil surgedThe $1.8 trillion private credit crunch — Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank all caught in the crossfireASX and global market movers — winners, losers, and where to positionBear vs Bull case scenarios for what happens from hereKey stories this week: Oracle surged 7% on 84% cloud growth, Adobe CEO Narayen resigned after 18 years, Bumble jumped 34% on its AI matchmaker launch, Goldman warned Brent could hit $147.50+, and the RBA is 62% priced for a hike on 17 March.
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Oil chokepoints, KOSPI chaos, and a shock SaaS comeback: this Bulls vs Bears episode unpacks how a tiny stretch of water can blow out inflation, why Korea’s market is going ballistic, and how beaten‑up software just became the only green on the screen, plus a sneak peek at our five‑pillar SaaS and AI moat framework.
Takeaways
The 33km Strait of Hormuz is a ticking time bomb for oil and inflation.
Venezuela’s “extra” barrels barely cover a few days of lost Gulf supply.
Fuel warning: why you should lock in petrol prices now.
Inside Korea’s KOSPI: Samsung, SK Hynix and the world’s wildest retail options market.
SaaS was the only real green this week while the Nasdaq went nowhere.
The “SaaSpocalypse” is over – quality software still has big upside.
We reveal our five‑pillar SaaS and AI moat playbook ahead of a free webinar.
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In Bulls vs Bears Episode 108, MPC Markets, Kai Chen, and Jonathan (JT) explore the sharp recovery in battered SaaS and software stocks as the overhyped AI-disruption narrative corrects to reality. The ASX hit fresh record highs at month-end, powered by BHP’s transformation into a major copper play and standout earnings from Woolworths, while US indices stayed choppy despite Nvidia’s solid results. The team highlights real-world AI wins at WiseTech and Block, flags emerging risks (hacks, rogue bots, AI-generated fraud), unveils their new Agentic AI Threat Map identifying high-moat survivors, and weighs in on serious Middle East tensions with massive US carrier deployments.
Key Takeaways
1. ASX at Record Highs – Australian shares outperformed globally, led by BHP (now viewed primarily as a copper company) and strong retail results from Woolworths.
2. SaaS Rebound Accelerates – WiseTech jumped ~17% and Block surged 26% after major AI-driven staff cuts, showing the market rewarding genuine efficiency gains.
3. AI Narrative Correction – Extreme “AI will kill all software” fears are easing, but new stories of security breaches, rogue chatbots, and AI-generated mortgage fraud signal the hype cycle is maturing.
4. Agentic AI Threat Map Launched – MPC’s new interactive framework rates 45+ software stocks by disruption risk; top resilient names include ProMedicus (PME), Veeva (VEEV), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), WiseTech (WTC), and Technology One (TNE).
5. The 5 Moat Pillars – Proprietary data, regulatory barriers (e.g. FDA), complex problem-solving, strong business models, and domain expertise are the key reasons these companies are expected to thrive alongside AI.
6. Commodities on Fire – Silver +13.5% (5 days), copper and lithium also rallying hard after Zimbabwe’s export ban; gold continues its steady climb.
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In this week's episode, the MPC Markets team discusses a quiet but eventful market week overshadowed by escalating US military positioning around Iran, a rebound in select Australian stocks (notably Telix up 14%), signs of sector rotation in the US (Russell 2000 strength), ongoing SaaS sector pressure from AI disruption, and a deep dive into which software companies may survive or thrive long-term. They also cover strong performances in gold miners, banks, and resources on the ASX, while expressing serious concern about potential conflict with Iran over the weekend.
Key Takeaways
• Geopolitical tension spikes — Significant US naval buildup (multiple carrier groups, destroyers) near Iran has markets on edge; the informal “Pizza Index” (DoCon level) remains low but shows early unusual activity around the Pentagon.
• Telix (TLX) surges 14% — Strong CEO interview, recent approvals in China & Europe, multiple Phase 3 trials underway, high short interest (~12%), and analyst targets pointing toward $22+ provide relief and momentum.
• Australian market resilience — Banks (NAB, CBA), major miners (BHP, Rio), and Newmont outperformed despite a subdued week; ASX touched intraday record highs driven by resources and financials.
• SaaS sector under pressure (“SaaSpocalypse”) — AI threatens seat-based models with low moats (e.g. HubSpot seen as heavily at risk); companies with deep data moats, high-stakes accuracy needs (medical, government, compliance), sticky contracts, or large distribution scale fare better.
• AI heat-map highlights survivors — Top-rated names include cybersecurity firms, medical/research platforms (e.g. Viva), logistics-heavy players like WiseTech, and roll-up acquirers like Constellation Software; Salesforce and Xero viewed as more vulnerable.
• Gold remains steady near US$5,000/oz → Miners are highly profitable at current levels despite a stronger USD and absent Chinese buying during New Year.
• Crude oil nears US$65/bbl amid Middle East risks; potential weekend developments could drive volatility in energy and broader risk assets.
• Upcoming catalysts — Nvidia & Salesforce earnings, Australian CPI + RBA’s Michelle Bullock speech, multiple Fed speakers, and PCE data could move markets significantly; bearish technicals on US indices add caution short-term.
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This week, Kai Chen and Jonathan unpack the “SaaSpocalypse” — the sharp sell-off in global software and SaaS stocks as AI disruption fears collide with volatile markets. They cover surging Australian bank earnings, record equity index levels, and why Asia (especially Japan) is emerging as a relative bright spot. The discussion dives deep into whether AI is truly “eating software,” the overlooked value of data, distribution, and moats, and how algorithm-driven narratives may be amplifying fear. Plus, insights on commodities, gold’s resilience, AI hallucinations, and whether beaten-down quality tech names now present a long-term opportunity.
- Visa fler
