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2024 will be remembered as a seminal year in China-Africa relations with a rebound of Chinese lending to the continent and renewed diplomatic engagement in the run-up to the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation summit that took place in Beijing.
Africa also emerged again as a centerpiece in the U.S.-China duel as leaders from both major powers visited the continent in 2024.
And while stakeholders in the U.S. and Europe struggle to get their businesses to see the opportunities available in Africa, Chinese firms have no such concerns as they expanded their presence this year in the mining, telecom, and automotive sectors.
In this year-end double episode, Eric, Cobus, & Géraud share their top three China-Africa stories of 2024 and provide a forecast for what to expect in the year ahead.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping surprised a lot of people last month when he made an unannounced stopover in Morocco on his way home from the G20 summit in Brazil. The North African country doesn't often come to mind when considering China's key geopolitical partners in the MENA region... which is a mistake.
Morocco is now a major manufacturing hub for Chinese automakers whose vehicles and parts flow directly into the European market thanks, in part, to a free trade agreement. The Kingdom is also one of the few countries in the world to have a free trade pact with both the EU and the U.S., making it especially attractive for Chinese firms who may be looking to shift production out of China to avoid the anticipated tariffs that will be imposed by the incoming Trump administration.
François Conradie, lead political economist at Oxford Economics Africa, joins Eric and Géraud from Casablanca to discuss why the combination of Morocco's strategic location and abundant resources is luring more Chinese engagement in the country.
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Tensions between China and the Philippines over territorial disputes in the South China Sea flared anew in December after another confrontation at sea. Soon after two vessels collided near the contested Scarborough Shoal, representatives from both sides took to the airwaves to blame the other for the latest incident.
Both Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Philippines counterpart Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. have made it clear they will not concede even a single inch of territory they claim rightfully belongs to their countries.
Don McLain Gill, a Manila-based lecturer at De La Salle University, joins Eric to discuss why the situation going into the new year will remain very tense.
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Donald Trump will be back in the Oval Office in just over a month after he is inaugurated for his second term as U.S. president on January 20th. While there's concern in some African capitals that Trump may scale back U.S. engagement, there's also a sense of optimism in some countries that he will shake up the system in ways that will give African leaders more access to U.S. policymakers.
What is certain, though, is the incoming president's national security team is very hawkish on China, and that will no doubt find its way back to the center of U.S. foreign policy towards the continent.
Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and one of Washington's most well-known Africa watchers, joins Géraud and Cobus to share his forecast for what the U.S. strategy towards Africa will look like in the next Trump administration.
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India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told the lower house of parliament last week that "some improvement" had been made in resolving the ongoing border dispute with China. But he also cautioned that a lot more work has to be done and that it will take years to "reset" relations with Beijing.
The two sides have pulled back their military forces from seven points along their contested boundary in the Himalayas, so they're no longer in close proximity to one another, but those troops are nonetheless still stationed there and haven't yet been redeployed.
Daniel Balazs, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, is a specialist in Sino-Indian relations and joins Eric to discuss what's motivating the two countries to negotiate a border settlement.
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Joe Biden wrapped up a three-day trip to Cabo Verde and Angola this week, marking the first visit by a sitting U.S. President to Africa in almost ten years. Although Biden sought to lay out an expansive vision for U.S. foreign policy towards Africa, including increased U.S. funding for climate change mitigation, more humanitarian assistance, and new infrastructure development, very little of that message got through the media coverage.
Instead, U.S., European, and Indian media outlets framed the visit as part of a larger great power struggle with China and Washington's effort to curtail Beijing's surging influence on the continent.
Meantime, Chinese and African media channels largely ignored the story.
Eric and Cobus review the different narratives that shaped the coverage of Biden's visit and fact-check a number of the misleading storylines that emerged in the reporting.
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The Sirexe “Salon International des Ressources Extractives et Energetiques” conference took place this week in the Ivory Coast and brought together ministers, policymakers and corporate leaders from across the continent to discuss Africa's energy transition.
Géraud led the discussion about China's role in that process, both as a key supplier of new energy technologies like photovoltaic power supplies and electrified mobility and, of course, as a major actor in the critical resources extractive sector in Africa.
Also this week, senior U.S. officials briefed the media on President Joe Biden's upcoming trip to Angola. Eric, Cobus, and Géraud discuss the awkward timing of the visit that comes less than two months before Donald Trump returns to the White House and how Angola is now in the middle of the U.S.-China duel in Africa.
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X: @ChinaGSProject | @cgneema | @eric_olander | @stadenesqueFacebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouthNow on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is not a fan of the Biden administration's climate legislation known as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), describing it as a "green scam." Trump has promised to repeal it, which will undoubtedly be welcome news in Indonesia.
Indonesia is home to the world's largest nickel reserves, a critical ingredient for manufacturing EV batteries. But the IRA aims to limit China's role in the battery supply chain, presenting a huge headache for Indonesian nickel suppliers given the outsized role that Chinese smelters play in the country's mining sector.
Putra Adhiguna, managing director at the Energy Shift Institute, an independent non-profit energy finance think tank in Jakarta, joins Eric to discuss Indonesia's uncomfortable position squeezed between China and the U.S. in the race to dominate transition mineral supply chains.
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This week's G20 summit wrapped up much the same way previous G20 gatherings have in recent years, with a weak final communiqué and lots of discord among the group's members. But this year's summit in Rio de Janeiro was nonetheless notable as it marked the African Union's debut as an official member of the body.
Chinese President Xi Jinping was also a stand-out at the summit, where he took a number of veiled shots at the United States in his keynote address as he sought to bolster China's self-appointed role as spokesperson for the Global South.
This week, Eric, Géraud, and Cobus discuss Xi's speech and whether African representatives should have been more outspoken now that they have a seat at the G20 table.
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Chinese contractors have been renovating the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia for the past two years, leading to widespread suspicion that the upgraded facility could eventually serve as a future outpost for the PLA Navy in Southeast Asia.
Despite compelling evidence that Chinese naval forces have been stationed at the base for much of the year, both the Chinese and Cambodian governments deny these claims.
Christopher Woody, an independent defense journalist based in Bangkok, argues that while it seems the Chinese military is set to maintain a presence at the base, it may not resemble a traditional military installation.
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It's widely believed that Chinese lending to African countries is predominantly done by a few state policy banks, such as the China Exim Bank and the China Development Bank. While that was true in the past, today the situation is far more complicated.
New research found that a diverse array of Chinese creditors are now active in Africa, including commercial banks, state banks, and corporate actors, among many others. And contrary to the popular perception that Chinese lenders are monolithic, the reality is that each of these creditors has very different agendas.
Tianyi Wu, a PhD candidate at the University of Oxford, and Yunnan Chen, a research fellow at ODI Global, join Eric & Cobus to discuss the diversity within the Chinese creditor market and why there are important pros and cons for African governments to consider when they borrow from these commercial banks.
SHOW NOTES:
ODI Global: China’s creditor diversification in Africa: impacts and challenges of infrastructure debt-financing by Chinese commercial creditors by Tianyi Wu & Yunnan Chen: https://tinyurl.com/yc4v2nec Development and Change: The Political Economy of Variations in Energy Debt Financing by Two Chinese Policy Banks in Africa by Tianyi Wu: https://tinyurl.com/3wvnex6e Boston University Global Development Policy Center: Back in Action: The Ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Sees Renewed Relations and Development Prospects by Tianyi Wu: https://tinyurl.com/yeyufn5jJOIN THE DISCUSSION:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque
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The re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to significantly alter U.S. foreign policy, including its approach to Africa. As seen during Trump’s first term, U.S. engagement with the continent is likely to decrease, with a stronger emphasis on countering China's expanding influence in the region.
The future of the U.S.-Africa free trade agreement, known as AGOA, is now uncertain, as the incoming administration has signaled plans to introduce protectionist policies.
This week, Eric and Cobus are joined by Stewart Paterson, a senior fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, to explore how Trump's return to power could impact Africa and discuss Stewart's recent article on Chinese investments across the continent.
SHOW NOTES:
The China-Global South Project: Trump, China, and the Rest of Us by Cobus van Staden: https://tinyurl.com/23wh5pxq Hinrich Foundation: How much of China’s investment into Africa is real? by Stewart Patterson: https://tinyurl.com/26adq3ppJOIN THE DISCUSSION:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque
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Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth -
There's been a lot of talk in recent years about the new "small and beautiful" doctrine that now guides China's Belt and Road Initiative. The problem is that a lot of people still do not understand what it actually means in practice.
President Xi Jinping first unveiled the concept at the Third Belt-and-Road Symposium in 2021 when he said that China's overseas development finance would focus more attention on "better connectivity" for telecommunications, energy, and financial services.
China has also had to scale down its financing of large-scale infrastructure projects because of economic challenges at home and debt sustainability issues among borrowing countries.
Lui Kanyi, a Beijing-based project finance lawyer and head of China at a large international law firm, has been closely following the transformation of the BRI for many of his Chinese clients. Kanyi joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the "small and beautiful" trend and what people should know about the future direction of the BRI.
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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque
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Two Chinese logging companies are now the largest timber harvesters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with concessions sized at more than 3 million hectares. The firms, Wan Peng and Booming Green, are engaged in industrial-scale logging to export raw timber mostly back to China.
But researchers at the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) also discovered that both companies are engaged in a wide range of illegal activities, everything from illegal timber smuggling to bribery.
Luke Allen, a campaign and advocacy officer at EIA, joins Géraud and Cobus to discuss the new report that details the various forestry crimes committed by the two Chinese companies and how the Chinese and DRC governments should respond.
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X: @ChinaGSProject | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
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Even though the five countries in Central Asia are among the world's largest fossil fuel producers, the region faces chronic electricity shortages due to a lack of refining capacity. The energy crunch is further compounded by a reluctance to become overly dependent on Russian fuel.
To solve both problems, several Central Asian governments are looking to source renewable energy technology from China. While wind and solar still account for a small share of Central Asia's total energy production, that may soon change as more affordable Chinese green tech enters the market.
Yunis Sharifli, an independent Eurasia foreign policy analyst, recently explored this trend in an article published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Yunis joins Eric & Cobus to explain the geopolitics powering the green energy transition in Central Asia.
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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
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Just over a million new vehicles were sold in Africa last year, a relatively small number given the continent's enormous population, estimated at 1.5 billion. Chinese auto brands are looking at that discrepancy and think it provides a unique opportunity for rapid expansion, particularly in the budding electric vehicle market.
BAIC Motors, BYD, Xpeng, and Neta are among a growing number of Chinese auto majors that have scaled up sales and manufacturing in Africa.
But selling EVs in Africa is not going to be easy. In many countries, access to reliable electricity is a problem. Then there's the issue of charging stations and the high import taxes many governments impose on foreign-made cars.
Even amid those challenges, Alex Mwanzo, general manager of Equator Mobile — a unit of the investment holding company Maris Africa — is optimistic about the prospects for Chinese EVs. Alex joins Eric & Njenga from Nairobi to explain why Chinese auto brands are well-positioned in the African market.
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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @hakeenah
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India and China have reached a deal to de-escalate tensions along their bitterly disputed border in the Himalayas, potentially ending a contentious four-year stand-off between the two Asian powers.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said on Monday that the two countries agreed to conduct joint military patrols along the border known as the Line of Actual Control. No details of the pact have been released and the Chinese government has yet to comment on the arrangement.
If the two countries have, in fact, agreed to pull back their forces and disengage, it would have wide-ranging geopolitical consequences throughout Asia. Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian studies at Yale University and contributing editor of The Caravan magazine in New Delhi, joined Eric & Cobus to discuss the ramifications of de-escalation along the Sino-Indian border.
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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
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The European Commission's Global Gateway initiative will turn three years old in December. The $300 billion infrastructure initiative was launched with great fanfare to provide developing countries in Africa and elsewhere with an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Many European stakeholders also hoped that Global Gateway would catalyze a new EU foreign policy agenda for Africa, which many critics contend is now unmoored.
Ahead of the upcoming anniversary, the European Centre for Development Policy Management, an independent think tank in Brussels, published a new report exploring African responses to Global Gateway. Mariella Di Ciommo and Pauline Veron, two of the report's authors, join Eric & Géraud to discuss the current state of Global Gateway and how it measures up against the BRI in Africa.
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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
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Chinese Premier Li Qiang is in Pakistan this week to get ties with its South Asian neighbor back on track after a series of terrorist attacks this year. The latest incident occurred earlier this month near the airport in the southern port city of Karachi when separatist militants with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) killed two Chinese nationals in a suicide bombing.
Pakistan has vowed to crack down on the militants but, so far, to little avail. In turn, Beijing has become increasingly frustrated with Islamabad's inability to better protect Chinese interests in the country.
Eram Ashraf, a China-Pakistan relations scholar, explained in a column published in The Diplomat how the violence is taking a toll on this vital Chinese diplomatic relationship. She joins Eric & Cobus to explain what's at stake for both sides if the Pakistani government can't contain the BLA.
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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
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U.S. President Joe Biden was supposed to be in Angola this week, fulfilling a pledge to visit the continent he made back at the 2022 U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit. But with massive hurricanes pounding the southern United States, the president was forced to postpone the visit.
The trip to Angola would have marked a major milestone for Biden. The southwestern African country is the showcase for the president's global infrastructure investment program, which is widely seen as Washington's effort to rival China's Belt and Road Initiative.
What does the president's cancellation of his trip this week say about Washington's larger Africa policy? Not a whole lot, according to Judd Devermont, the former senior director of African Affairs at the National Security Council and now an operating partner at Kupanda Capital in Washington, D.C.
Judd joins Eric to discuss the latest trends in U.S. foreign policy in Africa and what role China now plays in the White House's strategy.
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