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We’re joined by analyst Casper Andersen to provide updates on the Norwegian, Finnish, and Dutch covered bonds markets, and Icelandic jurisdictional support. We discuss the current housing markets and economic growth for Norway, Finland, and Netherlands and the impact on their respective covered bond markets. We also discuss issuance demand and trends in the Dutch covered bond market and revisions to certain jurisdictional support assessments in our criteria (specifically Iceland).
Related Articles:
Covered Bonds In New Markets: Issuance Holds Up In 2024 Global Covered Bond Insights Q2 2024: Strong Start To The Year For Issuance Covered Bonds Primer Norwegian And Finnish Covered Bond Market Insights 2024 -
For our first episode in 2024, our host, Tom Schopflocher, is joined by Cian Chandler, S&P Global Ratings’ Global Structured Finance Chief Analytical Officer, to introduce our “ABS Frontiers” article series. Throughout this year, these informative commentaries will explore sectors that are somewhat “out of the ordinary,” which, in addition to being interesting and possibly not broadly understood by the market, show potential for growth in origination and securitization. Some asset classes we’ve published on so far include C-PACE, music royalties, private credit funds, and bridging loan RMBS.
In the episode, we discuss our reasons for embarking on this article series, which include providing market insight based on what we are seeing and what may come down the line.
Click on the link below to access the series:
ABS Frontiers Series -
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In 2022, European covered bond issuance reached levels unseen since 2011, with the French and German markets leading the way. We're joined by analysts Denitsa Carouget and Casper Andersen to discuss both of those markets. We provide overviews of both French and German covered bond markets, including relevant legal frameworks and recent market developments. We also go into how both markets are performing in “higher-for-longer” interest rate environments and discuss our forward-looking outlooks.
Related Articles:
French Covered Bond Market Insights 2023 German Covered Bond Market Insights 2023 -
We're joined by analyst Ana Lai and co-host Jim Manzi to discuss the global office sector’s uneven recovery post-pandemic. We dive into the vacancy rates in different regions around the world, pricing trends for the office sector in a higher-for-longer" interest rate environment, and office performance in relation to the CMBS market. We also discuss distributions of North American REIT debt maturities across commercial real estate sectors, especially for the office sector, and what that means for the market. Finally, we touch on our outlook for the U.S. office market going forward.
Related Articles:
SLIDES: Uneven Global Office Recovery Is Squeezing Credit Quality -
Analysts Daniel Hu, Rebecca Mun, and Abhijit Pawar join us to discuss U.S. and European BSL CLOs. First, we give a recap of a CLO panel at a recent S&P Global Ratings-hosted European Structured Finance conference, "Navigating Challenges; Seeking Opportunities," where amendments and extensions were a focus. We then deep dive into a comparative overview of U.S. and European BSL CLOs, going into specific similarities and nuances between CLOs from both markets.
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On July 28, 2023, S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'AAA (sf)' rating to the class A notes of Anyihua 2023 Phase III Personal Consumption Loan Asset Backed Securities, the first 'AAA (sf)' rating assigned by an international ratings agency to a securitization transaction in China backed by consumer finance assets.
Analyst Andrea Lin joins up to discuss the analysis that went behind rating this transaction. We also discuss our outlook for China's consumer loan ABS sector as a whole.
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We're joined by credit analysts Casper Andersen to discuss how covered bonds could ease the pain in European commercial real estate (CRE), which has been struggling with inflation and rising interest rates. First, we go into the price trends of different CRE segments. We touch on covered bond rating performance. Finally, we talk about the potential for covered bond funding, which varies significantly depending on the covered bond issuer and jurisdiction, and green covered bonds, which may offer a potential source for further CRE funding.
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We're joined by credit analysts Andrew South and Casper Andersen to discuss covered bonds in Sweden, Norway, and Finland. Sweden has been experiencing rapidly rising consumer prices at a rate not seen in decades. Norway and Finland have been facing rising interest rates, which has had a dampening effect on property price. We talk about how the covered bond markets in all three jurisdictions have been faring under these conditions.
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We're joined by credit analysts Dev Vithani, Joshua Saunders, and Maxime Pontois to discuss some of the alternative financing arrangements that are on an uptick in the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) sectors in U.S. and EMEA and how they support issuance growth. We also discuss the impact of the recent events in the banking sector on the U.S. and EMEA ABCP markets. And finally, we go into our expectations for global issuance totals for this year.
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We're joined by CLO Sector Lead Stephen Anderberg and credit analyst Daniel Hu to discuss how rising U.S. broadly syndicated loan (BSL) CLO 'CCC' baskets could affect junior overcollateralization (O/C) test cushions. We detail how the mechanics of CLO O/C tests work and why the tests themselves matter. Then we deep dive into the scenario analysis we undertook to look at how the junior O/C test cushions could be affected by various hypothetical scenarios of rising 'CCC' baskets.
Related Articles:Scenario Analysis: How Rising U.S. BSL CLO 'CCC' Baskets Could Affect Junior Overcollateralization Test Cushions
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We're joined by Mathias Herzog to discuss how the risk for the commercial real estate (CRE) loans we monitor in European CMBS has shifted to refinancing risk from term risk due to rising interest rates. We touch on default and refinancing risk on some of the loans in our surveillance book that are about to mature, as well as what would happen if a loan defaulted. We also break down the performance outlook of European CMBS deals by sectors.
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Our host, Tom Schopflocher, is joined by Hong Kong-based lead analyst Andrea Lin to discuss our 2023 securitization outlook for China. We begin by recapping the broad Structured Finance issuance trends we are seeing in China and what’s driving them. We then go into detail on issuance trends in specific asset classes, such as RMBS, auto ABS, and consumer loan ABS.
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Our host, Tom Schopflocher, is joined by U.S. RMBS Sector Lead Jeremy Schneider discuss our 2023 U.S. residential mortgage and housing outlook. With the U.S. housing and mortgage market slowdowns expected to continue in 2023, we dig into some historical perspectives that are comparable to our current economic situation for clues on how home prices may behave this year at the national and regional levels. We also discuss our issuance forecasts by subsector, our view of collateral performance, and our views on what support for investment properties might look like in the coming year, among other credit themes.
Related Articles: 2023 U.S. Residential Mortgage And Housing Outlook: Navigaing A Softening Market
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Our hosts Tom Schopflocher and James Manzi get together to discuss our 2023 global structured finance outlook. Global structured finance issuance fell about 29% in 2022, and the declines were generally uniform in the largest global markets as high inflation, volatile interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty kept issuers on the sidelines. We expect these conditions to continue to hamper issuance. Our 2023 global issuance forecast is down about 7% year-over-year.
Related Articles:
Global Structured Finance 2023 Outlook 2023 Residential Mortgage And Housing Outlook: Navigating A Softening Market European Structured Finance Outlook 2023: Close To The Edge China Structured Finance Outlook 2023: Issuance Likely To Slowly Stir 2023 Structured Finance Outlook: Australia And New Zealand -
Expanding on our covered bond market coverage, Casper Andersen joins us to provide some insights into the Danish and German markets, which are the largest and second-largest in Europe, respectively. We give an overview of each market's adopted legal frameworks, key characteristics, and collateral securing their covered pools. We also discuss how inflation and mortgage markets affect these covered bond markets.
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We’re joined by Structured Finance analyst Christine Dalton, who gives her insights into the overall U.S. whole business securitization (WBS) sector, and by Corporates analyst Sarah Wyeth, who goes in depth on quick-service restaurants (which make up approximately 75% of our outstanding rated WBS transactions). We discuss some notable trends and potential credit events that we’re monitoring in the WBS sector currently and for the upcoming year.
Related Articles: U.S. Corporate Securitization Newsletter December 2022
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We’re joined by our CLO team members Stephen Anderberg, Catherine Rautenkranz, William Sweatt, and Jeffrey Burton to discuss the evolving nature of U.S. CLO document provisions. A number of the recent developments in indenture provisions are geared towards increasing CLO manager flexibility, while others are responses to market and regulatory changes. We do a deep dive on these key changes and how they could potentially affect noteholders.
Related Articles: Par Wars: U.S. CLO Document Provisions Evolve To Provide Managers More Flexibility
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We’re joined by nontraditional ABS Analysts Deborah Newman and Rajesh Subramanian, as well Kapil Jain from Structured Finance Methodologies, who discuss our request for comment (RFC) for proposed updates to our global aircraft ABS criteria. We review some of the proposed changes, the implications in terms of ratings impact, and the next steps in the process.
Related Article: Request For Comment - Global Aircraft ABS: Methodology And Assumptions
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In this week’s episode of Take Notes, hosts Tom Schopflocher and Jim Manzi discuss their recently published chartbook: U.S. Structured Finance Snapshot: The Health Of U.S. Consumers. Topics include U.S. macroeconomic conditions, consumer ABS, housing/RMBS, and non-agency multifamily CMBS, and how the trends in asset classes reflect the health of U.S. consumers.
Related Article: U.S. Structured Finance Snapshot: The Health Of U.S. Consumers
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Following the implementation of the EU Covered Bond Directive, analysts Casper Andersen and Ana Galdo join us this week to discuss the journey European covered bonds have been on to harmonize. We go over some key elements of the legislation, recap the harmonization timeline so far, and discuss what the directive means for covered bonds going forward.
Related Articles:
European Covered Bonds Reach Harmonization Milestone As The Journey Continues, July 12, 2022 Spanish Covered Bonds: Harmonization Achieved Through Royal Decree Law, July 13, 2022 - Visa fler
