Avsnitt
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Much like the Trump Tax Cuts, the $99 Annual Deal for all bonus content is now permanent. Enjoy!
As we sift through the multi-billion dollar wreckage of this election I’ve recruited Evan Scrimshaw to figure out what we know about this election.
First, if you had a Time Machine and your only goal was to increase the vote share of the Biden or Harris campaign, what time would you go back to and what would you say?
Then we carve through the revelations we’ve had since Tuesday including understanding Trump’s popularity and the electoral benefit of putting Jews on the ticket.
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Immediate thoughts on the Trump win.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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‘nuff said.
Find your polling place.
Enjoy this entirely non-political conversation with Scott Johnson. Literally, no politics are discussed at all. But there is a lot about religion, fast food, parenthood, weed and more.
See you on the other side.
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Here it is… Our conversation with Kevin Ryan on the state of the culture and philosophy that this election takes place in.
With that, my final thoughts.
Did you ever hear the tragedy of Darth Plagueis The Wise? I thought not. It’s not a story the Jedi would tell you.
That’s a quote from a Star Wars prequel and it’s the final decider on who I believe will win the President, the Senate and the House.
We will get back to that.
First, let’s empty the file on my 2024 election thoughts in order.
First, the landscape…
Donald Trump is a flawed candidate damaged by January 6th and hard capped at 48%
It’s the reason his party tried to overthrow him during the primaries. However, his resilience and ease in overcoming those challenges is telling.
Donald Trump began to gain and beat Joe Biden in head to head polling after he was indicted and his New York trial had a positive effect on his polling
This was the first moment I believed Trump could have a redemptive arc. If the public did not understand the charges against him and saw the prosecutions as political, he would be a martyr beyond core MAGA.
The Dobbs decision has been rocket fuel for Democrats
In off-year elections and special elections the present threat to reproductive rights have gotten Democratic voters to the polls. My criticism that they might be punished for not taking the threat seriously enough has not panned out as of yet.
Joe Biden’s presidency has been broadly unpopular and specifically unpopular with anyone who makes under $100,000 a year
Biden was elected in the panic of COVID to be a steady hand at the wheel. He lost that with Afghanistan and never regained it. The border went from a purely GOP partisan issue to a mainstream winner for Republicans almost entirely because of executive orders Biden made at the beginning of his presidency.
Issue after issue, the same playbook unfolded… deny, deny, deny until you blame it on Trump.
But nothing was more personal than inflation. A class warfare issue like no other.
Personal story, my wife and I were driving to dinner with friends. The husband was at the wheel of their new Tesla. The issue of politics comes up. I mentioned Trump was doing well because of the economy. “But the economy is good?” Is the response. And it is a sentiment I’ve heard from many people in my orbit and online. The stock market is booming? We avoided a recession? Inflation is lower here than anywhere else the world? How is this a weakness?
And behind the wheel of a new Tesla, I agree.
Which is where we get to that $100,000 a year figure. Because anywhere below that, inflation gets infinitely worse. It’s persistent and embarrassing. A ritual humiliation and reminder you are not good enough. That kind of stuff sticks with people.
So that’s the landscape… how about the candidates
TRUMP
To say that Donald Trump has run his best campaign out of his three tries is an understatement.
I’ll be honest, I stopped trying to fully understand the logic of Trump sometime in 2016. His combativeness, the issues he centered and erratic behavior is impossible to grade. Why did he just send that tweet? Has he discovered a hidden undercurrent in American society? Or did the KFC bucket he had last night make him farty?
In his two previous attempts he often didn’t seem to understand which way was up either. He fired two different campaign directors in 2016. He fired one of them in 2020.
Both times, election day came with him trailing mightily in the polls. The refrain for his chances became religious. He will pull through… because…
But that’s not the case this cycle. Susie Wiles, a Florida GOP veteran who watched her party take a purple state and drench it blood red and Chris LaCivita a bare-knuckle student of the last era of a Republican dominance under George W. Bush have run the ship from initial announcement to election day.
Tactically, the boat has pointed in the right direction.
Trump decapitated well-funded rivals in his own party in Desantis and Haley. He ended the political career of the man who beat him in 2020.
Trump has stayed off Twitter and has largely been able to avoid his habit of turning a bad 24 hours into a bad 3 days because of his inability to concede a point. He has mitigated his worst issue, abortion, as well as anyone who appointed the justices that flipped Roe vs. Wade can and accentuated his strengths with the economy and the border.
Of course, he is still Trump. He’s an a*****e that viserally annoys 40% of the country.
He is the loser pissbaby who couldn’t wrap his head around losing in 2020 and did a January 6th. And with that I will now leave space on the page so you can add the pet issue or event that you believe best encapsulates why Donald J. Trump should never be president again.
If you need more space, please open a new window and hit return until you have enough.
He also got shot in the face and survived. Not really sure how that factors into an election.
Which brings us to…
KAMALA
Well… Let’s start with…
BIDEN
Joe Biden is unpopular. This is in part because two of his failures played into both sides of the coin that helped him beat Trump.
His strength, foreign policy, where he sat on the powerful Senate committee for years was telegenically shattered with the Afghanistan pullout. It is impossible to say you did a good job when people are falling off the landing gear.
His weakness, the border, which he gleefully signed executive orders for on day one of his presidency created another telegenic disaster and supercharged an abusive of America’s asylum system. It’s impossible to say you did a good job when hundreds of Haitians, Chinese and Congolese have found themselves in Texas border towns.
Add inflation, add Gaza.
But it was his age that ended his career. The one thing he couldn’t ultimately shift the blame for.
The depression about his horrific debate created a panic for him to drop out, an unthinkable move as late in the campaign.
Which brings me to Darth Plagueis the Wise…
It was at the RNC when I sat in stadium seating talking with a man I would later be told knows everyone in Washington. We were watching something in a stadium in recessed seating which is what reminds me of the Darth Plagueis scene.
I am steadfast and pig headed that Biden won’t drop out. He’s too stubborn, I said stubbornly. Very calmly… he explains to me that Joe Biden will drop out this Sunday. He would have done it during the RNC but he didn’t want to give the most important speech of his career while he had COVID.
Within and hour Mark Halperin reported something similar.
Sunday morning, I wrote a newsletter about how Biden would never say die. Sunday afternoon, Biden announced he would not seek the presidency.
I looked like quite the a*****e.
It was Joe-ver.
My assumption was that taking over a campaign mid-stream was like trying to fix an F1 car while driving it and trying to win a race. Impossible.
And yet…
KAMALA
The Democrats hot swapped Biden for Kamala and for a shining glimmer of a moment… it looked like something was brewing.
Brat Summer. Coconut Trees. Unburdned by what has been.
Sure there were some weird moments… why do so many big named Dems not want to be VP? But the vibes! THE JOY!
When Kamala selected Tim Walz over Josh Shapiro, the leftist base of the party rejoiced! She picked a man who is at his best explaining liberal solutions to normies! Not the polished Obama clone just because he is the very popular governor of a swing state. This was bold! This was new! This was interesting!
And then… she tacked right…
Wait. Why pick the guy that can explain single payer health care with a Cabelas metaphor if you are going to talk about how Israel has a right to a lethal defense force that can eradicate any enemy it identifies? Why not pick the Jew who is +20 in Pennsylvania?
At least she found a wedge issue to distance herself from Biden… wait… didn’t do that either.
Did she parlay the buzz of the summer into a series of interviews with friendly media to reintroduce herself? Nope. Didn’t do that either.
I took a lot of crap from folks when I said she lost the debate. Not because she didn’t rhetorically hold her own, but because she had the most to gain by telling America about herself and she mostly spent her time running down Trump.
Cathartic after Biden’s disaster? Sure. But not the mission.
And she hasn’t really done much since then.
To her credit, her campaign has not been a flaming disaster like her 2019 run was.
But… one thing seems to be the same as that failure… the more America sees of Kamala Harris, the less they like her.
Which brings us to…
THE RACE
Do any of my opinions about the Harris campaign matter?
Donald Trump is a one-man Get Out The Vote drive for the Democrats. The specter of him returning to power raised OVER A BILLION dollars since Kamala took over.
And so we get to the final decision and it is determined by what you believe…
Do you believe polls that say Donald Trump is more popular than he has ever been?
Do you believe polls that say Democrats are at Obama-level excitement for Kamala?
Do you believe (as our friend Ettingermentum has spelled out) that polls are herding to a stalemate because they are terrified to overestimate Democratic support again and are therefore overestimating Trump support?
Do you believe that an administration with a 30/60 right track/wrong track environment can win re-election?
That’s a lot to think about… much like the Tragedy of Darth Plagueis the Wise…
Because in that RNC conversation with the Guy Who Knows Everyone… where he told me the exact day Biden would drop out and I didn’t believe him... He told me something else. He told me Kamala would be the candidate.
And he went further…
He told me that Democratic power brokers know she can’t win. But they know she’s a bad candidate and don’t want her around in 2028 when the party can really rebuild. So this a suicide mission. Raise a lot of money. Give her the old college try. Pat her on the head when it’s over and never have to be in the Kamala Harris business again.
So, do I believe him now?
I believe that Donald Trump is inarguably the defining figure for a decade of politics, love him or hate him.
I believe he has run a better campaign than both of his opponents.
I believe enough independent voters did not have a good time the last four years.
I believe Donald Trump, the 45th president will become the 47th president.
Donald Trump will be the 4,547th president.
I believe the map is too favorable to Republicans to not hand them the Senate.
But I don’t believe that a shoddy Get Out The Vote operation and reliance on low propensity voters in blue states is enough to win them the house.
Republican White House, Republican Senate. Democratic House.
Of our four scenarios…
PAX MAGA - Republican Sweep
Democratic Civil War - GOP White House and Senate, Democratic House
Unburdened By What Has Been - Democratic White House and House, GOP Senate
Roe Sends Her Regards - Democratic Sweep
I believe Democratic Civil War… is the most likely.
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We are in the endgame now. I’ve asked experts from across the spectrum who they believe will win the White House, Senate and House. Now it’s my turn.
But I have a few last trusted advisors to speak to first.
Michael Cohen (Model Political Campaigns) and Tom LoBianco of 24Sight.news help break down the closing polls and model out how the election will finally shake out.
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By the time you hear this episode, we will have less than seven days until Election Day.
Here are the metrics I am looking at…
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin: Trump 54% to win
Jon Ralston’s Nevada Early Voting Blog: GOP has 38,000 ballot advantage
VoteHub Early Voting Counter
And here is the math comparing the final tallies in Nevada and Arizona…
Electoral History of Nevada:
Biden +2.5
Clinton +2.5
Obama +6.5
Obama +12.5
Electoral History of Arizona:
Biden + Less than .5
Trump + 3.5
Romney +9
McCain +8.5
How much more Democratic is Nevada than Arizona?
2008: 21
2012: 15.5
2016: 6
2020: 2
On this episode of the show we welcome Taylor Lorenz for the first time. We discuss independent media, the blogging revolution of the 2000s and an unfortunate tweet. Also, Wake Up To Politics’ Gabe Fleisher helps us look at the final hours of this contest. And finally, Mark Sutton helps us break down the gender gap.
Let’s go!
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Don’t take early numbers too seriously. It’s the first chapter of a book. You might think you know where it goes, but each story is different. Early votes are not linear, they are often jumbled by different start times or counting processes.
So don’t take them seriously.
Okay? Did you read that? Are you not going to take them seriously?
Fine. Let’s torture ourselves with early voting data.
* VoteHub
* Jon Ralston Early Voting Blog
* UMichVoter
Also…
The great Bill Scher (Washington Monthly) joins to discuss where Kamala Harris is and how she wins the election. Andrew Heaton tells us of all the political signage he’s seen during his road trip from Texas to Washington DC.
Chapters
2:56 Early Vote
13:21 Bill Scher
1:00:13 UPDATE (Obama and Kamala, $28 million Polymarket Bet, Trump Legal Strategy)
1:09:50 Andrew Heaton
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If you are looking for good President Harris omens, you might want to check back later.
* Every betting market has now firmly tilted Trump
* Polling averages continue to show Harris wilting in the Blue Wall states
* Silver Bulletin, 538 and The Economist prediction models now all point to Trump
* The Oracle of Nevada Jon Ralston brings positively bleak news about the early vote in the Silver State for Democrats
Take all of those for what you will. But remember this, the only reason why President Biden isn’t on this ticket is because down ballot candidates made noise that he was dragging them down.
Well take a look at an ad Bob Casey is running. The Pennsylvania Senator and staunch Biden ally who is in a close race with Republican Dave McCormick is running an ad bragging about bucking the current White House and working with Donald Trump.
Crunch all the numbers you want, nerds.
I will always pay attention when a politician starts running for their own lives in defiance of the party.
On this episode
* Kirk Bado (National Journal’s Hotline) discusses the Kamala Harris fixation on Liz Cheney and if they are even looking for Never Trumpers in the right places.
* Howard Mortman (C-SPAN) dives deep into late campaign trivia and the traditions of the Al Smith dinner.
* Trump will tape Joe Rogan this Friday.
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PATCH NOTES:
* FIXED audio on Jason Whitely Interview
* REMOVED f-bomb
Apologies for the last export…
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A listener sent me a curious story: There is a Super PAC running ads online that paint Kamala Harris as a staunch defender of Israel AND a weak capitulator inflaming anti-semitism by pandering to Palestinians.
Don’t believe me? Here are the ads.
Why is the Future Coalition PAC countering their own message? They aren’t. They’re attempting to inflame both sides of the conflict against Kamala Harris in two swing states.
The Pro-Israel ads are not running in ZIP codes with high Jewish populations, they’re running in Dearborn, Michigan the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States. Meanwhile, the Palestinian “Pandering” ads are running in the suburbs of Pennsylvania where the majority of that crucial state’s jewish population lives.
The goal of both is to turn those natural Democratic voters against the nominee.
That’s only first 10 minutes of our two-hour episode!
* We are joined by Jason Whitely the senior political reporter for WFAA in Dallas. This week he moderated the debate between Colin Allred and Ted Cruz. We talk to him about his moderating philosophy and his thoughts on Texas politics.
* Evan Scrimshaw
and
Ryan Jakubowski
join the show to do a Narrative Draft. What are the topics we believe will dominate the conversation after the election.
* Carl Allen
explains to us why we’ve been reading polls the wrong way our entire lives and how to change it.
All that and snap reactions to the death of Sinwar in Gaza.
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A listener sent me a curious story: There is a Super PAC running ads online that paint Kamala Harris as a staunch defender of Israel AND a weak capitulator inflaming anti-semitism by pandering to Palestinians.
Don’t believe me? Here are the ads.
Why is the Future Coalition PAC countering their own message? They aren’t. They’re attempting to inflame both sides of the conflict against Kamala Harris in two swing states.
The Pro-Israel ads are not running in ZIP codes with high Jewish populations, they’re running in Dearborn, Michigan the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States. Meanwhile, the Palestinian “Pandering” ads are running in the suburbs of Pennsylvania where the majority of that crucial state’s jewish population lives.
The goal of both is to turn those natural Democratic voters against the nominee.
That’s only first 10 minutes of our two-hour episode!
* We are joined by Jason Whitely the senior political reporter for WFAA in Dallas. This week he moderated the debate between Colin Allred and Ted Cruz. We talk to him about his moderating philosophy and his thoughts on Texas politics.
* Evan Scrimshaw and Ryan Jakubowski join the show to do a Narrative Draft. What are the topics we believe will dominate the conversation after the election.
* Carl Allen explains to us why we’ve been reading polls the wrong way our entire lives and how to change it.
All that and snap reactions to the death of Sinwar in Gaza.
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The campaign known for booming vibes has hit a recession.
None of Kamala Harris’ polls in the Rustbelt have increased in October. Some averages are verging on the dreaded 47% line.
That's bad news. Donald Trump is a hard capped 48 % candidate, but you can count on that 48% showing up.
What’s more? Other indicators are pointing the wrong direction for Coconut Hive.
Nate Silver on his Silver Bulletin Substack has the race back to a 50% tossup.
Think what you will about the prediction markets, but Polymarket money is beginning to pile on a Trump victory.
Harris ‘24 knows they need a vibe shift and so they will take a risk! Harris will do an interview with Fox News today. This decision is being hailed as bold and it is.
But it’s also a massive risk.
Kamala has never faced an adversarial interview in her career. Not in California, not in DC, not in her 2019 campaign. This is a big stage to experiment on.
Will it pay off?
We discuss that and so much more…
Karol’s Substack on the Jewish vote in 2024.
JD Durkin LIVE FROM THE NYSE FLOOR on the economy.
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COMING FROM PATREON? MAKE SURE YOU MOVE YOUR SUPPORT OVER!
Justin Robert Young and polimath (Matt Shapiro) explore the duality of truth in politics, anxiety within the Democratic Party regarding Kamala Harris's campaign and the implications of Biden's debate performance. The conversation delves into the shifting narratives in political discourse, the challenges facing Harris, and the role of FEMA in disaster response. They also touch on voter sentiment, election predictions, coalition shifts, and the future of AI in politics.
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Tom LoBianco wants to tell the FULL story of January 6th from Mike Pence. Justin unveils the four potential scenarios for the 2024 election outcome with Evan Scrimshaw.
Chapters
00:00 The Pence Quest Begins
39:40 Introduction and Election Scenarios
46:26 Positive Republican Outcomes
50:06 Democratic Civil War
55:19 Democratic Optimism
01:01:53 The Case for a Democratic Sweep
01:35:54 The Texas Political Landscape
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BIG EPISODE TO BEGIN OCTOBER!
Justin gets into the current polling trends with Michael Cohen, separating fact and fiction in Springfield, Ohio and the unusual partnership between Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney.
Claire Meynial makes her Px3 debut to talk about the flashing warning signs for Harris in Dearborn, Michigan.
CHAPTERS
2:53 Michael Cohen
33:01 VP Debate Thoughts
53:57 The Widening War in Middle East
1:10:29 Liz Cheney campaigning with Kamala Harris
1:20:31 The Truth In Springfield, Ohio
1:39:57 Will Middle East Cost Harris Michigan?
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Justin Robert Young and Andrew Heaton discuss the vice presidential debate, analyzing a sparkling JD Vance and slightly wobbly Tim Walz.
00:39 Vance Won
09:53 Joe Biden Erasure
12:35 Moderation and Fact-Checking in Debates
18:41 The Lack of Personal Attacks
21:34 Trade Policies and Economic Perspectives
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The least consequential debate of the cycle? OF COURSE WE'RE STILL GOING TO GRIND THE TAPE! Vance vs. Ryan in 2022 and Walz vs. Jensen in 2022. I actually think this debate is actually going to be good.
Also, Jeff Maurer (Last Week Tonight, I Might Be Wrong) joins the show to discuss why all political communications from campaigns try to be funny these days.
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Justin Robert Young interviews Matthew Beat, known as Mr. Beat on YouTube, who shares his journey from being a social studies teacher to a successful YouTuber with over a million subscribers. They discuss the evolution of infotainment in education, the power of history in political discourse, and the influence of conspiracies in the digital age. The conversation also touches on the challenges of voter engagement and the shared truths in politics, highlighting the complexities of modern political communication.
Chapters
11:12 The Allure of Presidential History
20:40 The Evolution of Content Creation and Attention Spans
40:52 Conspiracies and the Age of Misinformation
49:24 Politics: A Shared Truth or a Divided Reality?
59:56 The Challenge of Voter Engagement and Information
01:05:10 Electoral College Dynamics and Predictions
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Justin Robert Young and former Congressman Scott Klug delve into the intricacies of political campaigns, focusing on funding dynamics, the impact of controversial figures, and the role of polling in elections. They discuss the challenges candidates face in securing financial support, the importance of local relationships, and the influence of national trends on local races. The conversation also touches on election security reforms and the evolving landscape of political communication.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Untold Congressional Stories
01:02 The Role of Money in Politics
19:01 Polling Metrics and Candidate Viability
21:55 Decision-Making in Political Committees
39:26 Election Security and Reform Ideas
45:33 Reflections on Political Careers
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Evan Scrimshaw and Justin Young discuss the current political landscape in the United States, focusing on key states like Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan, as well as the implications of recent Canadian elections. They analyze the strategies Democrats should adopt to secure victories in critical House districts, the impact of abortion rights on voter sentiment, and the role of Kamala Harris in the upcoming elections.
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Justin Robert Young discusses the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, exploring the details surrounding the incident, the background of the assailant Ryan Routh, and the implications for political security in the current climate.
Chapters
00:00 Assassination Attempt on Trump
02:37 Political Rhetoric and Historical Context
05:18 Understanding the Perpetrator: Ryan Wesley Routh
09:58 Routh's Background and Motivations
21:11 Implications for Political Security
23:29 The Current Political Climate and Future Concerns
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This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe - Visa fler
