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New sanctions on Russia’s oil exports are driving prices, for now. India’s rupee hits a record low. Australian consumer confidence is holding up over summer and business confidence improves again in New Zealand.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin reviews why the market has swiftly rowed back US rate cut bets in the early weeks of 2025.
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US Treasury yields continue to rise and stocks fall as hopes of multiple Fed rate cuts fade. A strong US dollar sees the Yuan slide towards 16-year lows, triggering intervention. And the oil price rises again overnight following new US sanctions.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner previews how New Zealand’s economy looks set to perform over 2025.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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ANZ Research has pulled forward its forecast for Australia’s first rate cut to February from May after soft inflation data. But US rates expectations have risen after strong US jobs growth. That combination has dragged the AUD down to post-Covid lows.
In our first bonus deep dive interview for 2025, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why China’s economy may well achieve its 5% growth target for 2024.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ -
Global markets are mixed ahead of big US and Japanese rate decisions later this week. US retail sales are solid. New Zealand’s Government announces a bigger than expected increase in bond issuance, and Australian consumers end the year better off.
For our final bonus Deep Dive interview of the year, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at the key themes of 2024 and at what 2025 might bring for the global economy.
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PMI results show the US economy is resilient, supporting only three Fed cuts in 2025. China’s retail sales disappoint again. NZ’s Government is expected to unveil a higher borrowing forecast today. Coldplay concerts in Auckland nudge inflation up a bit.
In the second in a series of bonus Deep Dive interviews to round out the year and to look ahead to 2025, I spoke with ANZ’s Head of Research for Asia, Khoon Goh, about Asia, ex China.
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Global markets are bracing for Fed rate cut on Thursday and a possible Bank of Japan hike on Friday. New Zealand’s economy is expected to report a triple-dip recession on Wednesday, before a rebound next year.
In the first in a series of bonus Deep Dive interviews to round out the year and to look ahead to 2025, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung expects monetary policy loosening in the first quarter.
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The ECB cuts 25 bps as expected, but the Swiss National Bank surprises with 50 bps cut. US headline PPI inflation is hotter than expected, but core inflation is still cooling. Australia’s jobs market tightens as unemployment falls. And India’s inflation rate falls, clearing the way for the RBI to cut in February.
In our bonus deep-dive interview, as we start thinking about what to put on the table for Christmas, ANZ’s executive director for Agribusiness insights Michael Whitehead reveals what Australians eat and drink on Christmas Day.
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US inflation met forecasts. Markets now see a Fed rate cut next week as a sure thing. Japanese producer price inflation pressure builds for BoJ. Soft NZ data points to a triple dip recession. Australian jobs growth is seen keeping the RBA on its toes.
In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari says the global aluminium market faces a number of challenges over 2025.
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Global markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data. The RBA holds, but is more comfortable on inflation, which saw the Aussie and Kiwi dollars drop 1%. And China’s exports haven’t experienced a pre-Trump bump…yet.
In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains how the new Reserve Bank of India Governor, could approach monetary policy, including with a new deputy in place.
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Oil prices rise 2% as Syria’s President flees the country, and as more stimulus is expected in China following a surprise politburo statement. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars get a boost; The RBA goes into its final meeting of the year with a slight tightening bias.
In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Executive Director for Agribusiness Insights, Michael Whitehead, has been down on Australia’s wheat, beef and sheep farms with mostly good news for farmers, starting with strong grain prices and a surprising reason.
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Markets have yet to open after the lightening-fast overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria over the weekend, which may further destabilise the Middle East. The Fed is seen on track to cut again next week. The RBA is expected to hold tomorrow.
In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why he’s watching for a potential GDP target downgrade from China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference this week.
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Bitcoin holds above US$100,000, while stocks and bonds are mixed ahead of US jobs data. The euro holds up well despite the collapse of France’s government, and Australian consumer goods imports rose as retailers stocked up for Black Friday.
In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India,Sanjay Mathur, looks at how Indonesia can grow GDP even faster than its current rate of 5% per annum.
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South Korea’s financial markets stabilise after the lifting of martial law, but the won remains vulnerable to political instability and a national strike threat. Australian GDP growth is more solid than its topline figures suggest.
In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ India Economist Dhiraj Nim dismantles India’s food inflation trends to find there’s more than just the weather and climate at work.
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South Korea’s President declares martial law, accusing opposition parties of plotting with North Korea. The Korean won slumps. Elsewhere, Australian GDP figures today are set to show a re-acceleration of growth.
In part two of a bonus Deep Dive interview on Asian currencies across 2025, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses which export-dependent economies are most at risk from trade disruptions.
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The Euro falls on growing concerns that France’s minority Government will face a no-confidence vote as it forces through a Budget bill. Australian retail sales are stronger than expected due to early discounting, and New Zealand building consents stabilise.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why he now expects a fifth consecutive year of depreciation for Asian currencies against the US dollar.
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ANZ Research now sees a later start to rate cuts in Australia, but sees a bigger rate cut in February in New Zealand. Donald Trump issues a big new tariff threat. And India’s GDP missed forecasts, increasing the chances the RBI will cut later this week.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why she sees just 75 bps more of rate cuts, rather than the 125 bps the RBNZ sees.
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Global markets are mixed, although tension is building around France’s budget crisis. The Bank of Korea unexpectedly cuts rates. Australian capital expenditure resumes growing, while New Zealand business confidence continues to firm.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak reviews how Vietnam’s economy has rebounded from Typhoon Yagi and how its export sector could be affected by incoming US tariffs.
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Solid US inflation means the Federal Reserve could pause rate cuts in December. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts 50 basis points, with questions arising over its next move, and underlying inflation ticks up in Australia.
In our bonus deep dive interview, after yesterday’s RBNZ decision, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner sums up the state of play for Kiwi interest rates, with the next RBNZ move not happening until February.
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Markets wobble after Trump threatens 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which forced the Aussie and Kiwi dollars down to near one-year lows. The RBNZ is expected to cut by 50 bps and the RBA is watching for disinflation progress.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ahead of today’s RBNZ decision, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman analyses last week’s growth warning from the New Zealand Treasury.
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US markets bounce on hedge fund manager Scott Bessent’s selection as Treasury secretary, easing deficit and tariff fears. Singapore’s inflation is dragged down by a strong currency, and a fall in New Zealand Q3 retail sales should mark the bottom of the current recession.
In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur looks at why the Phillipines’s current account deficit has risen sharply since April, and explores the wider implications.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ - Visa fler
