Avsnitt
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Today is the final trading session of the week for the Western stock markets and Wall Street opened mixed due to better-than-expected economic data. Indeed, a strong economy lessens the need for rate cuts, which investors are not too happy about.
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Today's session is likely to be a bit calm, before things get a bit more serious on Thursday and Friday, when the final US GDP reading for the final quarter of 2023, the latest US employment data and PCE inflation will be unveiled, followed by a speech from Jerome Powell.
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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Equity markets are experiencing their first seasonal trough of the year. This usually happens between two earnings periods. Companies have almost finished unveiling their 2023 figures. The cycle will pick up again in the second week of April with US financials such as BlackRock and JPMorgan, whose releases are due on April 11 and 12.
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Rates are high, but at the same time the economy is picking up. As a result, the situation is good for asset holders, and may even improve further should rates fall.
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The US central bank did and said what investors expected it to do. The stock markets took this as confirmation of their right to continue moving forward. If you don't like central banks, skip to part two, where I'll be talking about technology stocks. If you're fed up with these two topics, it's going to be complicated...
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The day that investors have been waiting for is finally here. At 2pm, we’ll have the Fed’s monetary policy decision, followed by Jerome Powell’s speech.
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We had a flurry of announcements from Nvidia yesterday, and two central banks adjusted their monetary policies overnight, but it's the US Federal Reserve that the market is awaiting. We'll have to wait until tomorrow for that.
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This week, we’re expecting no less than five decisions from leading central banks. The program kicks off on Tuesday with the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Australia. The US Federal Reserve will follow on Wednesday, before the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday. For the sake of completeness, there will be around twenty monetary policy decisions this week, with those of Brazil, Norway, Turkey and Mexico, to name but a few.
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With an important US central bank monetary policy meeting just days away, investors have lost some of their appetite for tech stocks. It’ll probably take more than that to turn them away from artificial intelligence, but the fever is easing, for now.
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Investors don’t seem to care about rate cuts these days. Inflation data coming in above expectations in the past few weeks hasn’t caused any turmoil. However, today, producer prices came in way above expectations. When will it be too much?
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It is sometimes complicated to anticipate and understand market reaction to new data. Indeed, yesterday’s higher than expected inflation reading didn’t elicit the response that most commentators expected investors would have.
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Inflation in the US picked up in February, disappointing investors who had expected it to remain stable, according to the CPI index that was just published by the Labor Department.
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The AI fever that took hold of investors in the past few months is showing some signs of easing. Investors are wondering if things are going a bit too fast, which led to some sell-offs in iconic stocks on Friday.
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The market is not ready to end its bullish phase. Investors are still enamored with anything artificial intelligence, while central banks hinted that rate cuts are coming this summer. February's job data was eagerly awaited by traders seeking to refine their forecasts about monetary policy.
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The mood is brighter this morning, with futures and most Western indices being in the green. After a brief hesitation yesterday, equity markets quickly got back on track after Jerome Powell reassured investors that we're on the right track. Today, the ECB confirmed this good scenario.
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Beijing's new objectives don't seem to be thrilling many people this morning. It was supposed to be a big day for China, with a new path, new measures, and economic targets, but it ended being a resounding flop. This is weighing on two very popular US tech stocks.
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The rush towards artificial intelligence stocks continues unabated. It's reminiscent of the Internet craze of 25 years ago, but with (very) profitable companies – so, investors have fewer qualms about jumping in with both feet. As for those who speak of a bubble, the market has chosen to classify them as Debbie downers rather than visionaries for the time being.
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Tech stocks and Japan are rising, China struggles, the Fed is waiting for more data… It still feels like 2023! On a more serious note, things are going well for equities at start of 2024, thanks in part to robust annual results from large companies.
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That was the data everybody was waiting for, since it has a major impact on future monetary policy in the United States. Investors have recently given the impression that they don't really care about the Fed any more, preferring to focus on AI. But given the anticipation this morning, it's clear that rate cuts are on most investors' minds.
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When a rally ends, it is often followed by a few quiet sessions. Yesterday, global indices remained within a small range, resulting in a few shades of red and green, but without excess. Investors are keeping a cautious stance ahead of key inflation data due later this week as they seek more clarity regarding central banks' monetary policy path.
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