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Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 198 to share his macro outlook and why he thinks we're headed for an Economic Singularity with the rise of AI.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmiGMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/Real Vision: https://www.realvision.com/
00:00 Welcome Raoul Pal and Real Vision's 10-year anniversary
01:39 The Everything Code and macro cycles explained
05:38 Explaining liquidity and its sources
07:29 Central banks, liquidity, and currency debasement
11:42 Risk-taking and asset performance in the current environment
15:02 The exciting macro setup and market opportunities ahead
17:43 Addressing misconceptions about recessions and market bubbles
22:23 Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation outlook
25:58 Raoul's evolution to a more optimistic market view
34:45 The concept of economic singularity explained
38:20 AI's impact on productivity and economic growth
42:20 Preparing for the economic singularity in the next 6 years
43:58 Bitcoin as a high-performing asset
45:07 Real Vision's past and future outlook
48:58 Closing thoughts on "unf***ing your future"
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Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 197.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.
*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/
00:12 Welcome and introduction
01:20 Macro view and Fed policy
7:08 Understanding inflation and central bank policies
11:21 The bond market's role in economic stability
18:01 Bubbles and market psychology
21:45 Current economic health and stagflation outlook
26:46 The Fed's credibility crisis
31:53 Implications of the upcoming election
34:13 Gold and silver investment perspectives
35:55 Japanese yen carry trade unwind
37:14 US dollar outlook
39:41 Thesis development in investing
42:00 The U.S. debt situation and future outlook
44:03 Parting thoughts on developing investment theses
46:07 Book recommendations and where to find Bill's work
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, returns for episode 196, in which he discusses the current macro landscape, focusing on Fed policy, global markets, and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He explores gold's role as a signal of economic stress, the dynamics of carry trades, and potential market volatility ahead.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod
Macro Alchemist: https://macroalchemist.com/
0:00 Welcome Brent Johnson
1:05 Current macro picture and Fed policy
4:40 Challenges of engineering a soft landing
8:54 What is gold signaling?
14:22 Global demand for gold
17:29 Dollar Milkshake Theory explained
24:11 Geopolitical implications of the dollar system
30:22 Market outlook
37:42 Are markets in a bubble?
41:51 Gold price outlook
45:35 2024 election impact on markets
49:24 Yen carry trade and broader carry trade risks
56:17 The global system as one big carry trade
59:03 Closing thoughts and where to find Brent's work
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Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 195 to discuss the current state of the economy.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.
*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Chapters
00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen
01:04 Big picture view — is there a recession or not?
02:24 Labor market
03:44 Home prices
07:53 Recession
10:40 Rate policy
12:54 Fed is afraid to really fight inflation
14:00 Liquidity explained
17:00 Americans are looking to be bailed out
21:30 Intervention
23:05 Fed
24:50 Deficit
28:40 Election
32:36 Parting thoughts
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Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 194. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics. Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Dr. Art Laffer
1:06 Big picture macro view, a long period of economic senescence
5:13 Transfer theorem and the decline in growth rates
7:58 Upcoming election from an economics lens
11:30 Operation Warp Speed and Right To Try
15:25 A second-term Trump could unleash a Renaissance in America's economy
19:00 Five pillars of prosperity
24:17 Tariffs
28:30 Trade and geopolitics
33:30 Trade is not a political weapon
42:50 Government spending
50:00 RFK Jr. endorsing Trump is one of the most important events
53:55 A Harris presidency
57:20 Parting thoughts
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✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, and a prominent figure in the field of stock market analysis and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 193 to share his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts.
Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969. Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years.
**DISCLOSURE**Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome back Tom
1:00 Where we are today in the markets
2:00 McClellan Oscillator showing the bulls are no longer in control
6:30 Presidential Cycle Pattern
10:50 Liquidity
12:40 Gold
20:29 Japanese Yen
22:00 Mexican Peso
23:25 Gold
25:25 Dollar
31:40 McClellan Oscillator explained, signaling an overbought and bearish condition in the markets
33:16 Are recession signals flashing in the market?
36:00 Demographics
38:27 Market timing
40:41 Federal Reserve is 13 months overdue for cutting
43:00 Presidential Cycle
46:29 Parting thoughts
Links:
https://www.mcoscillator.com/
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc
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Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt, EVP and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company, joins Julia La Roche on episode 192 for a wide-ranging discussion on the deteriorating economy.
In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on the nonseasonal adjusted data, the overshoot was actually 915,000. Dr. Hunt explains that the non-farm job miss means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down. Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward, and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5%.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.
*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
✨ Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt
1:16 Macro picture
3:37 Downward revision in non-farm payrolls is significant
5:45 The 818,000 error is actually 915,000, according to Dr. Hunt's model
9:00 The economy is deteriorating
15:24 Net national saving shows we have a problem
21:40 The seriousness of negative net national savings
25:00 Decline in the standard of living
34:50 Possible solutions, shared sacrifice
40:00 Fiscal dominance is a very real possibility
45:40 Fed is behind the curve
47:37 Where are we in the economic lifecycle
49:44 The global economy
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Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 191 to discuss the economy and markets.
With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.
He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.
https://oxbowadvisors.com/
00:00 Introduction and welcome Ted Oakley
1:31 Macro picture, a slow disintegration
3:06 Federal Reserve
5:30 State of the Middle Class
7:00 A September rate cut?
08:32 Conversations with clients about the economy
11:31 The average person's exposure to stocks is too high, building balanced portfolios
15:30 Similarities/differences between 2000 and today
17:40 The evolution of the market and rise of passive investing
19:30 Cash position
21:20 10-Year Treasury
23:48 Opportunities — cutting back on tech stocks, investing in pharmaceuticals
25:20 Gold
27:20 When to sell your winners
31:25 Staying rich with a balanced portfolio
33:50 Second, third generation wealth
39:40 Best and worst years personally
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Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors LP, joins Julia La Roche episode 190 to discuss the macro picture and why the economy is likely headed toward recession. He also thinks this overvalued stock market could see a 15-20% correction.
Links:
website: https://www.ftportfolios.com/
blog: https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/Economics/index.aspx
X: https://x.com/wesbury
0:00 Welcome Brian Wesbury
1:09 Macro view
3:30 Why we're going to have a recession
4:25 Health of the economy
8:15 Savings rate
10:45 Bifurcated economy
12:30 Housing
15:45 Federal Reserve have separated the money supply from interest rates
19:60 Burns or Volcker
21:20 Cut because of politics
25:20 Debt situation
30:40 Bitcoin
33:44 State-run capitalism
37:00 Markets
40:00 Energy
42:50 Presidential election
47:20 Parting thoughts
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Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to the show for episode 189, featuring a discussion on the macro environment, warning signs, and investment opportunities.
Link to Rick's private placements bootcamp: https://events.ringcentral.com/events/rick-rule-s-virtual-private-placement-bootcamp?utm_source=aff&utm_campaign=14
00:00 Introduction and welcome back Rick Rule
01:30 Macro picture, wake-up call and lessons from the Japanese carry trade unwind
3:53 Be prepared for these contingencies
05:50 Two risks, one opportunity
09:50 Entitlements
12:15 Opportunity in gold
15:20 Taxes and inflation
19:39 The Federal Reserve and interest rates
23:19 Manipulation of interest rates
30:10 Bond market
35:05 Upcoming election
40:58 Parting thoughts
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Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 188 to discuss the economy.
This episode was recorded on Friday, Aug. 2.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome back Chris Whalen
01:00 Big picture view and the troublesome rate of change
2:30 10-year yield
04:15 An inflection point
06:15 Risks in corporate credit and commercial real estate
09:15 A difficult economic environment ahead
12:50 Upcoming election
15:00 Why the Fed won't cut before the election
16:40 Opportunities
18:40 Fannie and Freddie
23:08 Velocity of the change
24:00 Consumers
26:16 Opportunities for Lenders
28:00 Inflation problem
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Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 187 to discuss a dangerous triumvirate of bubbles in the economy: a real estate bubble, an equity bubble, and a credit bubble. These bubbles have been fueled by 20 years of a negative real Fed funds rate. Pento predicts that these bubbles will burst. He believes that the current situation is very dangerous and could result in a stagflationary environment. Michael also discusses inflation and the erosion of the middle class and the negative implications for the economy.
Links:
https://pentoport.com/
https://twitter.com/michaelpento
0:00 Welcome back Michael Pento
1:11 Macro view, most salient chart
1:55 A triumvirate of dangerous bubbles
4:09 Bubbles bursting
7:14 The market has already priced in rate cuts
9:39 Most dangerous time in the markets?
11:10 Where would we be if the free market could exist?
13:19 Bifurcation of the economy
19:44 America is an insolvent nation
21:30 Headed for stagflation
23:12 Election
24:29 Investing
27:50 Gold
28:30 Inflation
30:00 Erosion of the middle class
35:58 What difference would a Fed cut even make?
34:55 US dollar
41:20 Gold is not an investment
43:30 Any hope?
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Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 186 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics, including the attempted assassination on former President Trump and why the market has the so-called Trump trades all wrong.
This episode was recorded on Friday, July 19.
Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).
Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo
01:25 Big picture macro view
03:00 Geopolitical update
04:10 Trump trades
06:53 Election is not over yet
08:01 Assassination attempt and the risk of another attempt
11:15 JD Vance
15:20 Finding a replacement to Biden
18:45 2025 will have nothing to do with 2017
22:44 Challenges in financing tax cuts, tariffs, and potential for a global trade war
25:50 Collecting taxes on big tech companies doing business outside the US would be bearish for stocks
28:00 Trump will face a massive budget deficit and why he's not that bullish for bitcoin
28:50 Trump 1.0 vs. Trump 2.0 economy
30:30 If Trump wins, he'll inherit a huge mess from Biden
35:41 Immigration
40:31 The ultimate Trump trades are defensive trades
44:30 Betting on a recession
50:37 Generative AI is a bubble that will trigger a recession
56:55 Parting thoughts
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Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 185 to discuss the macro view and political turmoil in the U.S., including the attempted assassination of former President Trump. This episode was recorded on July 18.
Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.
An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.
Links: http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/
https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and overview
05:46 The current political landscape and global events
16:49 Trump's path to victory
22:27 Internal dynamics within the Democratic Party
26:26 Discussions of a virtual roll call for Biden's nomination
31:03 Biden withdrawing and Harris becoming the nominee
35:11 The landmine of Congress certification in 2025
50:47 The path towards a recession
56:34 The stock market bubble and concentration risk
59:33 AI
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Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.
Three years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. And he expects inflation will fall to his expected range of 2.5-3% by the end of the year. He also expects that we'll enter a recession later this year or early next year.
Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke
01:05 Big picture, macro view, Quantity Theory of Money
06:20 Inflation headed to 2.5-3% zone by year-end, sees recession ahead
07:40 Grading the Federal Reserve's policies, they get an 'F'
12:40 How the money supply works
16:21 Inflation below 2%?
17:30 Debt and deficit
21:52 Need for a Constitutional amendment to control government spending
23:48 End game if we don't address the debt situation
24:44 A fiscal illusion
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Neil Howe, an author, historian, demographer, economist, and consultant best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 183 to discuss the Fourth Turning. Julia and Neil recorded this episode on Friday, July 12. After the attempted assassination of former President Donald J. Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, Neil and Julia spoke again for about 20 minutes on Sunday afternoon, which airs at the beginning.
Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society. A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.
In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement.
Links:
Twitter/x: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration
The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Neil Howe
1:09 Neil Howe reaction to assassination attempt on former President Trump
4:30 We’re in an era where people are more tolerant of violence
6:20 How would we react?
9:31 Breakdown of trust — where are people finding trust?
11:11 A path forward?
16:20 Parting thoughts — be hopeful about the future and long-term destination
19:10 Neil Howe July 12 interview intro
20:30 Generational theory, the four turnings
25:50 Crises that shape generations
27:55 Great Awakenings
33:40 Where are we in the Fourth Turning? The election? Tribalization of America
36:20 “I worry about November 5th…”
41:23 Political risk-taking
44:40 Four Turnings
48:30 Crisis period
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Economist and author Tyler Cowen, the Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and chairman and general director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, joins Julia La Roche on episode 182.
Links:
Marginal Revolution: https://marginalrevolution.com/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/tylercowen
00:00 Introduction and welcome Tyler Cowen
01:11 Big picture — the scary and the wonderful
03:37 Optimist
04:40 The Great Stagnation and AI
06:18 The impact of AI on investing
08:14 Human connections will matter more
10:45 Our debt will probably prove manageable because of AI
11:22 How AI will change how we live
13:50 Education
16:39 AI and jobs
18:17 Debt
21:17 U.S. psychology
23:37 Conflicting narratives of the economy
24:40 Immigration
26:25 Talent
29:13 Food and capitalism
32:20 Approach to life
33:20 Great Financial Crisis — why real estate wasn’t a bubble
36:20 Investing: Be long
38:36 Travel and humanity
42:00 Views
43:40 Election year
45:50 Parting thoughts
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Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 181 to discuss the economy, why he thinks the Federal Reserve is worried about a recession next year, and his take on the upcoming election.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen
01:00 Macro view
03:00 Stress tests
05:50 The Consumer
07:30 Silent crisis in commercial
11:24 Election
14:45 Trump win good for the economy
17:30 Inflation
21:20 Rate policy
25:30 Trump
29:00 Parting thoughts
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Entrepreneur-turned-investor Andrew Wilkinson, founder and chairman of Tiny, a Victoria, Canada holding company that invests mostly in tech, joined Julia La Roche on episode 180 to share his new book, “Never Enough: From Barista To Billionaire.
Once a barista in a small cafe making $6.50 an hour, Andrew Wilkinson built a business valued at over a billion dollars by the time he was 36—and yet, his path to success was anything but a straight line.
In Never Enough, Wilkinson pulls back the curtain on the lives of the ultra-rich, sharing insights into building a successful business that has been called a “Berkshire Hathaway, but for internet companies,” and a surprising first-person account of what it's actually like to become a billionaire.
Never Enough features both the lessons Wilkinson has learned as well as the many mistakes made on the road to wealth—some of which cost him money, happiness, and important relationships.
Taking a "no secrets" approach to stories the wealthy rarely reveal, Wilkinson is unwaveringly honest about some of the unexpected downsides of money: its toxic effect on personal relationships, how the lifestyles of the rich and famous aren't all they're cracked up to be, and how competition with peers leaves everyone—even billionaires—feeling like they never have enough.
In this book, you'll discover:
A candid glimpse into the lives of the super-rich and what truly matters beyond money Insights on building a successful business from the ground up Lessons learned from the mistakes made on the journey to his fortune The surprising realities of life as a billionaire and the challenges that come with extreme wealthIn this rare and deeply honest account, Wilkinson examines his journey to nine zeros, what came after that pinnacled number, and the essential things money can't buy.
Links:
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Never-Enough-Billionaire-Andrew-Wilkinson/dp/1637744765
Twitter/X: https://x.com/awilkinson
0:00 Intro and welcome Andrew Wilkinson
1:48 Macro view
6:23 AI
10:00 'Never Enough' book
11:35 A form of self-therapy
13:00 If you swim with the sharks, you’ll become one
14:00 Making things right
17:00 Starting businesses as a teen
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Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 179.
Links:
PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward
00:00 Intro and welcome Ed Dowd
00:46 Macro picture
02:14 On the precipice of a slowdown in the economy
03:15 State of the real economy
04:30 Disconnect in the U.S. stock market, a fast and furious correction
10:17 Preparing for the correction: allocating portion to T-Bills
11:38 Generational opportunity
13:30 Growing debt and deficits
15:45 Need the austerity candidate
16:58 A looming crisis
18:48 UBI and a CBDC
22:25 Gold
24:30 Toxic brew
27:29 Erosion of the middle class
29:00 Inflation
30:40 Rate cut
33:00 Policy error of the Fed
36:20 Real estate
38:00 Immigration
40:13 GDI for average middle class went up under Trump
42:12 Chaos creates opportunity
46:12 Phinance Technologies: Providing Alternative Perspectives on the Market
- Visa fler
