Avsnitt
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This week we have a distinguished guest with an estimable track record at calling out the machinations and malfeasance behind the numbers: Stephen Clapham, the driving force of Behind the Balance Sheet, a podcast of the same name and education company. Stephen helps teach fund managers and others the tricks of financial chicanery and magical massaging of the numbers. (Repeat from July, 2024.)
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Our recent episode on Reddit was a surprise hit, as was the stock - temporarily - so we’ll be diving into that and much more. This week, a look at the volatile nature of financial markets with discussions around recent events, critiquing the creator economy, speculative frenzy in cryptocurrencies, and tech market overvaluation.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer dive into discussions about financial market volatility and the phenomenon of market bubbles, touching on topics like the recent Reddit IPO and the cryptocurrency crisis exemplified by FTX’s fallout. They critically assess the risk and reality of investments, using illustrative examples to underline the often speculative nature of today’s financial markets. They also segue into discussions on the creator economy, the disruptive potential of AI and chips in the movie industry, and concerns around the instability of personal debt amidst rising interest rates. The episode concludes with recommendations for insightful reads, exploring themes from technological impacts on society to the resilience needed in today's challenging world.
00:02 Introduction
00:38 Part One
06:17 The Reality of Stock Market Manias and Personal Debt
08:25 Exploring the Trump SPAC and the Fate of Cameo
12:45 The Crypto Conundrum: Skepticism Meets Reality
16:52 Part Two
16:52 Navigating the Creator Economy and Tech Innovations at SXSW
22:19 The Economic Impact of Data Centers
22:46 AMD's Influence in the Film Industry
23:31 The Challenges of AI in Hollywood
24:38 Chip Makers: The New Brand Ambassadors
25:31 Rethinking the Creator Economy
26:46 The Long Tail Dilemma in the Creator Economy
27:48 The Misconception of Loyalty in the Digital Age
31:49 Music Industry's Paradox: Growth vs. Sustainability
33:43 Inflation's Impact on the Music Industry
36:43 Easter Reading Recommendations
41:28 Closing Thoughts and Future Episodes
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Saknas det avsnitt?
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This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in a deep dive conversation with guest Bill Raduchel, exploring his extensive 60-year career transitioning from chemical engineering to economics, and eventually into the tech and media industries. Raduchel discusses his views on conventional wisdom, the evolution of technology, and its implications on economics, suggesting that technology has outpaced neoclassical economic theories due to its scaling properties and the significance of information. He shares insights from his book and experiences, addressing issues like tech debt, government staffing challenges in the face of rapid technological advancements, and the potential impact of AI on the future of software development. The episode covers the dynamic between big tech companies, government regulation, and the inevitable challenges posed by significant shifts towards AI and increased power demands. Raduchel also presents intriguing ideas on innovating government structures and discusses the practicalities of managing a rapidly evolving tech landscape.
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation
00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics
06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics
08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book
11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges
17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing
19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization
25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics
25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two
25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword
25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity
26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation
27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges
29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization
30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation
31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation
34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech
40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation
42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce
44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation
50:06 Credits
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This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy…
Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Part One
00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights
01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity
02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue
04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society
07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector
11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance
13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency
16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge
22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen
23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation
23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth
25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands
26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag
27:22 Part Two
27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity
28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity
32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities
36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality
43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark
47:28 Credits
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So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms.
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles
01:02 Part One
01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore
02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive
03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials
06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit
08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics
10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects
16:00 Part Two
16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights
20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations
21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off
21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive
23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections
24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic
25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals
27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality
29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics
34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs
38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape
40:20 Credits
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When looking at today's issues of privacy, social media, and AI, we can draw a lot from the battles of the browsers over the past 30 years. To explore this, we welcome a close friend onto the show, the father of JavaScript and a Silicon Valley legend, Brendan Eich. Brendan left the CTO role of Mozilla firefox years ago and embarked on a journey to scale up a privacy-first browser and search business that would reward the sites you visit with a token reflecting your attention and value. (Repeat from July, 2023)
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Navigating the AI Hype: Lessons from a Tech Visionary
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist-author Will Page engage in a rich conversation with Brendan Eich, the creator of JavaScript and a Silicon Valley legend. They delve into the intricacies of the tech industry, exploring AI developments, privacy issues, and the history of browser wars. Eich discusses his journey from Netscape to founding Brave, a privacy-first browser and search business, sharing insights on big tech’s strategies, the pitfalls of surveillance capitalism, and the nuances of rewarding creators in the digital age. Furthermore, the trio critiques current AI hype, discussing its implications for the tech ecosystem and underlining the interplay between technological innovation and user empowerment.
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble
00:59 Part One
03:03 Tackling Surveillance Capitalism and the Creator Economy
06:24 Privacy, Policy, and the Power of User-First Philosophy
12:29 The Evolution of Browser Wars and the Role of Regulation
24:06 Part Two
24:10 AI's Potential to Disrupt Big Tech's Dominance
25:28 AI Models and Data Quality Challenges
26:24 The Impact of AI on Content Creation and Privacy
27:06 Economic Foundations and the Strategy Tax in Tech
30:55 The Power of Defaults and Consumer Choices
36:33 Regulating AI: Industry Perspectives and Challenges
39:07 The Future of Translation and AI's Role
44:00 Navigating the Hype: AI Investments and the Reality
47:10 Closing Thoughts on AI, Privacy, and the Future of Tech
47:48 Credits
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This week we talk with Linda Yueh, author of the book The Great Crashes. Since America's Wall Street Crash of 1929, the global economy has weathered the most tumultuous century in financial history. From the currency crises of the 1980s, to Japan's housing meltdown, the dot com boom and bust, the global financial crash and the COVID pandemic, crash after crash has sent shockwaves through our world. The Great Crashes tells the stories of ten of these historic financial events. They serve as a series of cautionary tales, each with their own lessons to be learnt. With clear-eyed analysis, renowned economist Professor Linda Yueh uses these meltdowns to extract a critical three-step framework to help recognise the early signs of a crash, mitigate the effects and even prevent them in the future. There is very little that is certain in economics, except for this: there will be another financial crisis.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Understanding Economic Bubbles and Crises: Insights from Linda Yu
This episode of Bubble Trouble features Richard Kramer and Will Page in conversation with Linda Yu, the author of 'The Great Crashes', discussing lessons from historical economic downturns and ways to prevent future crises. Yu shares her unique perspectives drawn from her experiences in journalism, academia, and having been a witness to several economic crashes. The conversation covers the dynamics of bubbles, the role of banks and debt in triggering financial crises, regulatory challenges, the impact of policy decisions on economic inequality, and the specific case of China's impending financial instability. Throughout, the importance of understanding human nature's role in financial markets and the necessity for credible crisis management strategies are underscored.
00:02 Introduction
00:47 Part One
00:47 Introducing Linda Yu: From BBC to Authorship
01:34 Linda Yu's Journey: Academia, Books, and Economic Crashes
02:06 The Making of 'The Great Crashes': A Deep Dive into Economic Meltdowns
06:04 Understanding Crises: The Three Phases of Economic Downturns
08:47 The Role of Banks in Economic Crises: A Critical Examination
15:12 Regulatory Challenges and the Shadow Banking System
22:06 Educational Insights: The Importance of Economic History
26:52 The Eurocrisis and Bail-Ins: A New Approach to Banking Failures
29:58 Part Two
30:10 Preview of Part Two: Further Explorations into Economic Crises
31:16 Exploring Economic Festivals and the Humor in Economics
32:06 The Serious Side of Economic Crime in China
32:14 Navigating the Iceberg: China's Economic Challenges
33:07 The Next Great Crush: Predicting China's Economic Future
33:39 The Intricacies of China's Banking System and Property Bubble
34:56 China's Influence on Global Markets and Emerging Economies
35:30 China's Unique Approach to Big Tech Regulation
39:25 The Consequences of Financial Penalties on Banks
41:03 Preventing the Next Great Crash: Policy Levers and Their Effectiveness
46:13 The Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies
55:10 Crisis Management and the Importance of Credibility
59:19 Final Thoughts and the Future of Economic Crises
01:00:30 Credits
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This week, Will is just back from Brussels after addressing the European parliament on media and technology and, well, he’s doesn't see too impressed with his first visit since Brexit. And given we’ve discussed super stocks last week, this week we want to explore if any of those super stocks are going to come from the European Union, and equally, dig into whether the stereotypes about the Old World still ring true.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the current state of the European tech industry. Will, fresh from a visit to Brussels, shares his experiences and perspectives on the bureaucracy, inefficiencies, and regulatory struggles prevalent in the European Union and its tech scene. Addressing the European Parliament on media and technology, Will discusses the vast gap in entrepreneurship and tech innovation between the U.S and Europe, with the latter lagging significantly. He criticizes Europe's over-protectionism towards their tech industry, arguing that this approach does more harm than good. Furthermore, they discuss the digital markets act passed in Europe, labor markets, grandstanding politics, and tech nationalism. This episode concludes with the hosts scrutinizing the desperate need for productive economic reforms and forward-thinking policies in Europe's institutional systems and tech sector.
00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:48 Part One
02:39 Comparison of American and European Entrepreneurship
10:39 Insights on Tech Companies' Lifespan and Exit Strategies
18:22 Part Two
18:47 Addressing the European Parliament and Tech Concerns
21:14 The Digital Markets Act and its Implications
22:48 The Problem with Big Tech
23:52 The Impact of Regulations on Startups
24:41 The First Mover Advantage and Regulatory Catch Up
24:49 The Debate on In-App Purchases
25:18 The Frustration with Dysfunctional Systems
26:06 The Paralysis of Legislators
26:43 The Role of Regulation in Business
27:38 The Dilemma of Intellectual Property and AI
28:16 The Risk of Monopolizing AI Wealth
28:37 The Misguided Efforts in AI Legislation
33:30 The Issue with Job Security in Public Sector
38:33 The Problem with Regulatory Nationalism
40:04 The Struggles of Brussels
40:45 Closing Remarks and Future Plans
41:29 Credits
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This week Richard puts Will on the hot seat, and review all his amazing work on the economics of the music industry, something that is a lot smaller than everyone imagines, even if it touches all of us deeply.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Super Fans and Music: The Shape of the Music Industry
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, super skeptical analysts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the concept of 'super fans' in the music industry. They critique the idea that fans' increasing ability to interact directly with artists is reshaping the music industry. They draw a parallel between their industry and finance, highlighting the importance of algorithmic methods in both. They also delve into the thriving local music scenes in various countries due to streaming and direct artist-to-fan communication. Furthermore, they analyze the potential impacts of AI on the music industry, noting that AI-created music doesn't compete with human-made music and that major music platforms are making staff cuts due to market saturation and reduced growth. In Brussels, they signal plans to discuss policies against 'bad actors' on platforms, responsible AI, fair remuneration for authors, and transparency of algorithms. The episode wraps up emphasizing the value of user comments as a metric of audience engagement.
00:00 Introduction
00:36 Part One
01:06 The Super Fan Phenomenon
03:41 Understanding the Super Fan Economy
04:27 The Impact of User-Centric Models
08:39 The Power of Direct Communication with Fans
10:21 The Rise of Glocalization
17:25 The Influence of Algorithms in Music
19:23 Part Two
21:30 The Economics of Emerging Markets in the Music Industry
22:24 Understanding the Impact of Data Costs and Conversion Models
23:20 The Challenges of Operating in India's Media Market
24:08 The Music Industry's Growth Bubble and the Role of AI
25:17 The Limitations of Algorithms in Music Curation
26:21 The Impact of AI on Music Consumption and Creation
26:57 The Value of Human Curation in Music
28:03 The Role of Algorithms in Global Music Trends
28:54 The Intersection of Music and Finance
32:56 The EU's Approach to Music and Media Markets
36:14 The Power of Super Fans and the Resistance Factor
39:10 The Significance of Comments in Measuring Engagement
40:37 Wrapping Up: The Future of Music and Finance
41:33 Credits
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This week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech Stocks
In this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors.
00:01 Introduction
00:48 Part One
00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory
03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They?
07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets
22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech
23:13 Part Two
23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech
38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts
41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments
41:54 Credits
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This week we’re going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes “robo-adjustments” to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts.
00:00 Introduction
00:57 Part One
01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor
01:26 Understanding New Constructs
02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street
03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble
04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business
05:37 The Reality of Wall Street
07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective
08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles
15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading
18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating
23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure
26:12 Part Two
27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics
27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals
28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman?
28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion
29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts
29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms
30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis
33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach
35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis
47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks
50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions
50:59 Credits
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Our guest this week is Hugh Hendry, a man who found fortunes walking the tightropes as booms turned to busts. Founder and CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, London, a Global Macro Hedge Fund, from 2002 to 2017, where its “high water mark” events were the early and successful identification of the gold bull market in 2003 and the housing debacle in the US in 2008. [Repeat from June, 2023.]
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One of the giant iceberg industries - it's all around us but we don’t really see it - is advertising. Frequently touted as the first to suffer, first to recover on the economic cycle, but also counter cyclical, since you need to sell harder in tougher times. Now we are seeing wobbles in economic data, some serious haircuts in tech exits and layoffs from the great and the good, it seems only right that we double down on a massive global ads market this week to see if it is suffering and if it is - might there be troubles ahead?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: Navigating the World of Digital Advertising
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the state of digital advertising, its potential growth, the impact of technological trends, and the challenges it faces in terms of fraud and wasteful spending. They discuss the influence of AI in advertising, the philosophy behind programmatic advertising, and how economic cycles affect advertising spend. They also delve into the strategies employed by big companies like Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram in the face of fraudulent activities. Richard points out marketers' inherent conflicts of interest and the ways AI could enhance ad targeting and testing. The hosts end with an insight into how poor economic periods could push companies to advertise harder to maintain their market presence.
00:00 Introduction
00:53 Part One
01:41 Understanding the Imperfections of the Advertising Market
01:57 The Size and Giants of the Advertising Market
02:36 The Impact of Social Media and Retail Media on Advertising
05:32 The Journey of Advertising: From Brand to Direct
21:43 The Influence of AI on Advertising
25:22 Addressing Ad Fraud in the Advertising Industry
25:48 Part Two
26:21 The Problem with Stream Fraud
26:39 Understanding the Different Types of Ad Fraud
27:20 The Impact of Fraud on the Music Industry
28:25 The Role of Bots in Ad Fraud
28:28 The Rise of Made-for-Advertising Sites
29:16 The Challenges of Programmatic Advertising
30:58 The Dangers of Malvertising
32:33 The Fear of Outing Fraudsters
37:49 The Future of Advertising on WhatsApp
43:16 The Impact of Elections on Advertising
47:26 The Role of AI in Improving Ad Targeting
48:12 The Influence of Advertising on Economic Cycles
48:27 Conclusion: The Imperfections and Opportunities in Advertising
50:01 Credits
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With 340-odd days ahead, what are the smoke signals - good and bad - that you need to be aware of? Today we look forward, and make sense of the madness ahead of us in 2024.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: A Look at 2024's Economic Pitfalls and Opportunities
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss their outlook for 2024, examining potential economic headwinds and tailwinds. They predict turbulence ahead, citing macroeconomic swings, cutbacks in sectors like luxury goods, upcoming global elections, and changes in the tech landscape. They consider the potential impact of AI, particularly in the public sector, with potential benefits in education, health, and law. The hosts also discuss the uptake of Duolingo, reflecting on the broader success of apps that can maintain usage frequency.
00:00 Introduction
01:01 Part One
01:26 The Impact of Economic Headwinds
03:01 The Role of AI and Technology in the Economy
04:23 The Impact of Job Cuts and Unemployment
05:01 The Influence of Tech Companies on the Economy
08:43 The Impact of Macro Swings and Uncertainties
14:12 The Influence of Political Cycles on Economic Cycles
20:25 Part Two
20:25 The Potential of AI in Transforming Public Services
31:31 The Role of Drama in Influencing Public Opinion
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This week we’re in conversation with a special guest, someone who The Independent argued that he may be “the most influential man in British television.” Sir Peter Bazalegette. The man who brought Big Brother to our screens during his tenure at Endemol, steered the Arts Council England through a period of austerity and was recently chairman of the board of ITV. No one is better placed to make sense of the creative industries and the bubbles they perennially produce. (Repeat from March, 2023)
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Today, we turn our attention to a massive credit bubble that burst and dumped toxic sewage in the form of shell companies and endless debt on public utilities. A scandal is unfolding at Thames Water - London’s waterworks that’s frankly been drowned in debt by the private equity owners. To twist this up a notch, we’re joined by the Northern Irish former punk singer Feargal Sharkey has turned his legendary energy to a cause that's deeply dear to his fly fishing heart - that of England’s beleaguered and abused rivers and streams. It's a great reminder of how these financial bubbles impact all our lives, and Feargal's dogged pursuit of justice on behalf of all of us who like to swim, fish or just enjoy the sight of the UKs precious rivers. (Repeat from July, 2023)
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This week we want to wrap up a stellar year of topics, guests and unimaginable bubbly behavior, and not just of the kind of champagne at holiday parties.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: 2023 in Review & Predictions for 2024
Bubble Trouble: 2023 & Looking Ahead to 2024
In this year-end episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer look back at the action-packed year of 2023 and the spectacular bubbles that burst within it. They discuss the turbulent direction of AI, the volatility in the podcast market, and address podcast topics including the integrity of financial statements and Britain's water crisis. The episode also features a reflection on past guests and their insights on different industry sectors. Looking forward to 2024, the hosts contemplate upcoming bubbles and the potential impact of global politics, elections, and interest rates.
00:00 Introduction
00:49 Part One
01:00 Reflecting on the Journey of Bubble Trouble
01:58 Reflection on the Bubbles that Burst
02:11 The Metaverse, NFTs, and the Reality Check
02:35 The Impact of the Consumer Debt and the Bubbles Bursting
02:58 Predictions for the Bubbles in 2024
04:40 The Role of AI in the Tech World
06:42 The Impact of Interest Rates on the App Economy
07:00 The Economic Climate and Spotify's Job Losses
07:52 The Impact of a Normal Functioning Finance System
21:45 Part Two
21:56 The Podcast Bubble: An Analysis
22:29 The Impact of AI on Music and Entertainment
22:48 The Rise and Fall of Podcasts and NFTs
23:07 The Truth about Audience Figures in Podcasting
24:41 The Future of Podcast Advertising
26:16 The Advertising Market in the Digital Age
26:45 The Challenges of Media Advertising
28:16 The Impact of Time Shifting on Podcast Advertising
28:40 The Dilemma of Monetizing Podcasts
28:55 The State of the Podcast Industry
39:00 The Impact of AI on the Economy
40:06 The Effects of Job Cuts
43:44 Closing Remarks and Acknowledgements
44:45 Credits
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Economics wont get you a lot of spicy dates… but we delve into a fantastically accessible book that compliments this podcast like gin and tonic. This week we’re going to be in conversation with the authors of "Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles," an engaging tour of the last 300 years of bubbles. (Repeat from May 2023).
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this intriguing episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in a lively chat with the authors of 'Boom and Bust'- William Quinn and John Turner. They focus on the principles governing financial bubbles over the last 300 years. Along the way, they explore topics like the effects of quantitative easing, importance of marketability, and the benefits and drawbacks of certain economic policies. The conversation also touches upon the impact of speculation, implications of central bank independence, and the role of media in shaping economic perspectives.
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This week wrap up our conversation with Andy Fastow, the former CFO of Enron. [Part 2 of 2]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this milestone 100th episode of Bubble Trouble podcast, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page converse with former Enron CFO, Andy Fastow, discussing the downfall of Enron, financial regulation, the financial crisis, and the manipulation of financial statements. Fastow delves into the fine line between legal and illegal practices in finance, highlighting how business leaders can inject more risk than they realize when operating within the 'gray areas' of business and finance. He also shares his insights into public pension liabilities, the potential tipping point for public finances, and how the perception of different companies can drastically change based on financial reporting and assumptions.
0:00 BT 101 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part Two
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:42 Part One
19:03 Exploring the Role of Technology in Financial Crises
22:20 Understanding the Impact of Government Accounting
29:09 Enron's Advisory Board and Structured Finance Deals
30:11 Reflections on Enron's Financial Practices
30:41 Government's Financial Engineering
30:58 Imputed Rent and Government Statistics
32:25 Part Two
32:25 Inflation and its Impact
32:25 Inequality and Low Interest Rates
32:40 The Role of Analysts and Ethics in Finance
33:34 The University of Colorado Case Study
49:29 Closing Thoughts on Ethics and Reciprocity in Finance
52:59 Credits
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This week we take you back to one of the biggest bubble bursting in living memory, Enron, which went from Americas 7th largest company to bankrupt within a year at the turn of the millennium. How many booms, busts, frauds and financial irregularities have we witnessed since? Now, 100 episodes in, we get to sit down and LEARN from Andy Fastow, the former CFO of Enron. We’ve wanted this guest on the pod since, well, before the podcast began - buckle up for a conversation about what happened that fateful year, why it's continued to happen since and where and how, not if, the same will happen again.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this 100th episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the inner workings of business and financial markets, shedding light on their truths via conversations with their guest, former CFO of Enron, Andy Fastow. They discuss the key factors that led to the downfall of Enron, including the exploitation of accounting 'loopholes' and the destructive impact of mark-to-market accounting and how it leads companies into a risk-laden gray area of business. They also cover the issues surrounding operating leases, addressing the ethical debate of 'genius' vs 'evil'. Furthermore, they delve into insightful examples of business mishaps and financial irregularities including the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Fastow expresses his regret and responsibility for Enron's downfall, highlighting the difference between technically following the accounting rules and creating misleading financial impressions of a company.
0:00 BT 100 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part One
00:02 Introduction
00:02 Introduction and Overview of Bubble Trouble
00:15 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Topics
00:41 Unpacking the Enron Scandal
01:23 Part One
01:25 Interview with Andy Fastow, Former CFO of Enron
08:33 Understanding the Role of Auditors and Attorneys
10:59 Exploring the Concept of Loopholes
13:46 The Reality of Operating in the Gray Area
25:46 The Distinction Between Different Types of Fraud
27:19 The Conflict of Interest in Financial Analysis
28:53 Part Two
28:53 Continuation of Conversation with Andy Fastow
30:43 Enron's Acquisition and Financing Strategy
31:14 The Use of Operating Leases in Enron
32:46 The Legal Hurdles and Creative Solutions
35:56 The Impact of Financial Innovation
38:11 The Dangers of Mark to Market Accounting
41:53 The Role of Incentives in Financial Reporting
46:56 The Case of Silicon Valley Bank
53:42 The Role of Analysts and Banks in Financial Misrepresentation
54:54 Closing Remarks and Preview of Part Two
55:31 Credits
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- Visa fler
